The Patriots’ win Monday night gave the AFC two two-loss teams (and zero three-loss squads) exiting Week 13, forming a mid-2010s-like duel for the No. 1 seed with the Broncos. In the NFC’s race for the bye slot, the picture is much cloudier.
As it stands, the NFC has a host of teams in contention for that No. 1 spot. The Bears currently hold it, but a fierce challenge appears ahead for Ben Johnson‘s resurgent team. Chicago sits at 9-3, but so do the Rams and Seahawks. Because of their tie in Dallas, the Packers are 8-3-1. The Eagles’ Week 13 loss to the Bears hurts their cause, but the defending Super Bowl champions are 8-4. The 49ers are 9-4, creating an interesting race with five weeks left.
The Bears have not earned a top seed since 2006, though their second-seeded squad advanced to the 2010 NFC title game. The Bears have not managed a playoff win since. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the current NFC leader a 12% chance of holding the top spot. That figure sits fifth in the conference.
While the Johnson hire has proven the catalyst for the Bears’ climb — after four straight playoff absences — the team’s decision to overhaul its offensive line has played a big role as well. The trades for Jonah Jackson and Joe Thuney, along with the Drew Dalman signing, has helped the Bears rank second in pass block win rate and fourth in run block win rate this season. This group powered D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai to 100-yard days in Philly on Black Friday. The team also saw Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon, whose offseason extension topped the slot cornerback market, activated from IR for the stretch run.
Chicago, however, closes with four games against over-.500 teams; the Bears draw the Packers twice and have games against the 49ers and Lions. In addition to the two Bears tilts, the Packers have a Denver trip to make along with a Week 17 Ravens matchup. ESPN’s FPI gives Green Bay a 17% chance to hold the No. 1 seed. The Packers earned back-to-back No. 1 seeds — in 2020 and ’21 — but have not come especially close to such real estate during Jordan Love‘s starter run.
Love has shown more growth in 2025, ranking third in QBR despite the team battling major issues in its pass-catching corps. Tucker Kraft is out for the season, and the team has not had Jayden Reed — its leading receiver in 2023 and ’24 — available since Week 2. Reed is in the IR-return window, and the Packers have seen Christian Watson — who returned midseason from an ACL tear — step forward along with Romeo Doubs. The Pack have not seen too much from first-round pick Matthew Golden, however, and the Kraft-to-Luke Musgrave gap appears wide despite the latter being drafted earlier in 2023.
The Packers did not exactly ride defense to those bye slots earlier this decade, with that unit being unreliable for most of Aaron Rodgers‘ stay. But Jeff Hafley‘s unit ranks sixth in scoring and fourth in yardage. EPA is a bit more skeptical, slotting the Pack 14th defensively. The team’s Micah Parsons blockbuster trade/extension sequence has made an impact. Parsons’ 36 pressures trail only Myles Garrett (39) this season; the ex-Cowboy dynamo has 12.5 sacks — already just 1.5 shy of a career high.
Concerns about Matthew Stafford‘s summer back injury were overblown, and the 17th-year quarterback is pushing for an MVP — an accomplishment that would strengthen a Hall of Fame case light on accolades. The one-time original-ballot Pro Bowler’s 32:4 TD-INT ratio has powered the Rams, who have benefited from their Cooper Kupp-to-Davante Adams upgrade. The NFL’s active touchdown reception leader (117) has a league-high 14 this season.
L.A. has also benefited from good injury fortune this season. Until Rob Havenstein‘s setback, the Rams’ O-line has rebounded from injury-plagued campaigns, with Puka Nacua also avoiding IR. Chris Shula‘s defense ranks second in points, putting him on the radar to become the third Shula appointed an NFL HC. FPI gives the Rams, who have not held the No. 1 seed since 2001, a 30% chance to do so — tops in the conference. The Rams have three games against sub-.500 teams, though they do face the Lions and Seahawks as well.
Seattle limited Stafford in a Week 11 loss, but Sam Darnold‘s four-INT day impeded a road win. The Seahawks have otherwise seen Darnold reward them for another offseason QB gamble, as they gave the nomadic QB a three-year, $100.5MM deal days after trading Geno Smith. Darnold is all but certain to collect the additional $17.5MM due in February. While Kupp has stayed healthy, he only has 438 receiving yards. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has rendered that a minor concern, as his NFL-most 1,336 have him gunning for Calvin Johnson‘s single-season record (1,964), setting up the 2023 first-rounder for a monster extension; he is eligible for a new deal in January.
Mike Macdonald‘s defense has surpassed expectations, ranking third in points allowed and EPA per play. Byron Murphy has taken a major step forward, going from a half-sack as a rookie to seven this season, while the DeMarcus Lawrence and Ernest Jones signings have paid off as well. The Hawks will need to upend the Rams to have a realistic shot at the 1 seed, and they also have games against the 49ers, Colts and Panthers. FPI gives Seattle a 16% chance at what would be its first 1 seed since 2014.
San Francisco is somehow 8-4 despite losing Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Mykel Williams for the season — along with Brock Purdy for much of it. The recently extended starter has not played especially well, but he is not expected to be 100% after a turf toe injury until the offseason. Mac Jones‘ two-year, $7MM contract has proven to be a bargain, as the once-maligned QB has gone 5-3 as a starter this season. Jones ranks 10th in QBR. Robert Saleh‘s return has also aided the 49ers, who rank eighth defensively (though, EPA is far more skeptical, slotting Saleh’s crew 24th).
Given a 15% chance at claiming what would be their third No. 1 seed of the Kyle Shanahan era, the 49ers follow their Titans matchup with games against the Colts, Bears and Seahawks. Only one road game (Indianapolis) remains on San Francisco’s docket.
FPI gives the Eagles only an 8% chance at the top seed, despite the team’s head-to-head Rams tiebreaker. Philly’s latest OC change, installing longtime Nick Sirianni coworker Kevin Patullo in the play-calling role, has keyed an uneven Super Bowl title defense. Saquon Barkley has not come close to matching his stratospheric 2024 form, and QBR ranks Jalen Hurts 19th. Top O-lineman Lane Johnson has a Lisfranc injury, though he is not on IR, while more A.J. Brown drama has unfolded ahead of likely 2026 trade rumors.
While Vic Fangio‘s defense looked better following some deadline trades (most notably the Jaelan Phillips move), it surrendered 281 rushing yards to the Bears after a collapse in Dallas. The Eagles’ schedule does cooperate for a potential third No. 1 seed since 2017. After a game against a potentially Justin Herbert-less Chargers team, two Commanders tilts await. Philly does have a Buffalo trip in Week 17, however.
Who will end up claiming the NFC’s top seed? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.
Rams at 13-4 over GB, PHI, and TB.
I’ll say Philly. Team is winning while playing poorly. Rams, Det, then Carolina. TB too injured on both sides of the ball. I expect the Patriots to lose their first playoff game; same with the Seahawks (if they make it)
I voted for the Bears just because I’m an unapologetic fan, but don’t really expect it. I’m thrilled with how this Bears season has gone. I find the team’s progress over the course of the season especially encouraging. The team is really coming together, starting to gel. Caleb is getting increasingly comfortable in the pocket and with the playbook. Ben Johnson has gotten a better handle on how to match his playcalling with the strengths of his players. The Bears just keep getting better each week, progressing from a losing team to a winning ugly team to, against the Eagles, a confidently winning team. And they still have so much room for improvement. I don’t think the Bears will get far in the post-season, but they keep giving me valid reasons to believe they might. #BearDown
Smoke and mirrors. Im sorry to say so. The defense getting healthy will help them but until Williams can hit the broad side of a barn, there bubble will soon burst.
Yet people still believe in Philly when Jalen looks like JJ McCarthy these days and Saquon looking cooked.
The schedule says regression is due. Nobody is taking Williams over Hurts or the duo over Barkley come playoff time.
Does it really though?
Big Jon.. Really? They had twice the time of possession the Eagles had. And 20 more plays..That son, is way more than smoke and mirrors- those numbers don’t lie.
Cowboys.
Nineros! Three home games then champs
Not sure who the mental giant was who decided to make the 2nd Bears-Packers game a Sunday night game at Soldiers Field 5 days before Christmas. But he should be made to watch that game from the sidelines in his underwear.
That change makes a bears dub more likely though. It equals out the passing game.
Everyone your spew your nonsense you embarrass yourself and Packer Nation.
Try English, sir.
How is that blocking filter working for you? Stupid and untruthful. That’s quite the combination.
For some reason, the app doesn‘t block your idiocy. I usually use the website.
It‘s really sad, actually. Grown a s s men fighting on the internet. Really dumb. You should just let it go. I‘m not the one following you around.
I will consider this your white flag and admission of defeat. I’ll let you save face and end further embarrassment for you as you are clearly out of your league.
You need help bruh.
Sounds like you want to keep the status quo. Fine with me. Let me know when you want to tap out.
John Lynch trading Mac for a 2/3rd would be sneaky
Watch out for Seattle …
Unless they’re flexed into a prime time game. That’s when Darnold will shat himself.
He’s already played in multiple prime time games. Did just fine in those games.
LA. They are the best team in the NFL right now this past weekends result aside. Week to week they have been the most complete.
It won’t be Chicago, Bears fans. Haha. The Bears might miss the playoffs still. I could see them going 1-4 down the stretch and that game vs DET being a play in.
I’d guess the 1 seed comes down to LA and SEA with GB being a dark horse because if the difficulty of the schedule. They’d have to win out and I’d bet they drop one in the next month.
I see it the other way with the Bears beating the Packers twice and Cleveland and then the SF game being a toss up and the Detroit game not really mattering a whole lot with Det being completely beat up again just like last. year. At least the last 2 will be played in warm climates. Heck even Eberlose beat the Packers.
I also think they’ll be lucky to win two games.
Yeah. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills. The Bears can run, throw off schedule, and turn the ball over on the other team. Yes, that’s enough to be competitive. But they literally suck at every other aspect of the game. It’s not enough to be a great team.
The Lions are better.
It’s not pills. That crazy is all natural as is the stupidity that runs rampant inside your head.
The Bears are not sweeping the Packers, dude. And Eberfluss tied the Packers in a crazy game. Bears fans are over their skis and it will come back to bite them.
Still in denial I see. You said the same comments before they dominated the Eagles. I don’t see them sweeping those games but they have a helluva good chance at a split. The next three weeks will tell us a lot.
It’s not denial. It’s common sense. They have one quality win. All year. I’d guess a split too, and I don’t think the Packers are great. They’re “good.” I just think they are better personnel wise than the Bears.
If sense was common even Bearmeat would have it. Sadly he doesn’t and he feels the constant need to subject everyone to his ridiculous ramblings on a subject is obviously tainted by his ultimate homer viewpoint.
Bearmeat is over his skis every time he opens his mouth.
this kid talks more about the bears than his own packers. he is clearly rattled by them. I bet he thinks the packers have zero flaws too. one of the more delusional people on here
Funny. Lions fans (when they were still present) said the same thing. I talk about the NFCN. Mostly about the Packers. But the Packers are usually boring, because great organizations don’t cause waves usually. So there aren’t as many articles about them.
There are not as many articles about Green Bay which is why Bearmeat feels the need to demonstrate his stupidity on each and every one of them. Sometimes he feels that one dose of his nonsense isn’t enough and he turns on the stupidity spigot and lets it flow on just about every comment made on an article.
Are you still bitter about the time I (and other Packer fans) embarrassed your ridiculous take on Parsons? Why do you feel the need to follow me around? It’s really kind of creepy, dude.
Yet another example of Bearmeat’s delusions. The only embarrassing takes posted on this site have come from him.
I love how Bearmeat feels that he can talk all the smack he wants but someone calls him out for his stupidity he gets his feathers ruffled.
I think he is just upset that the world sees that every time Bearmeat finds himself in a battle of wits, Bearmeat is unarmed.
Perhaps someday he will learn that people in glass houses should not throw stones. Until that day arrives, Bearmeat will just need to be reminded of that fact.
At this point, you just have to look at scheduling more than the teams’ individual profiles. Momentum makes up the difference, of course.
The Rams have Detroit and Seattle left, and their two Cards games. The Cards are terrible, but divisional games have the potential for wilder things to happen. Detroit is sliding, not crashing but sliding, but they’re still one of the better teams in the league, and if Seattle doesn’t commit four passing turnovers, they win that other game. I still think that L.A. is better than those that they play overall, but it’s about who is better on that day. Their schedule is the one of most manageable in my mind, because none of those teams (except Seattle) really defend the pass exceptionally well, and that’s where the Rams want to go. They could drop that Seahawks game, win the others, and still force the Seahawks to win out.
Detroit’s schedule is manageable. Their problem is that it’s full of trap games. They’ve got the Steelers and Cowboys, the worst good teams in the league, and the Rams, who are probably the best. It’s going to be hard to stop the Rams’ receivers with Detroit’s secondary, so they really can’t drop the other games. Their Vikings game should be a reprieve, but like I said with the Cards, divisional games are traps. Ending with a good Bears team will complete the test. Detroit really can’t afford to be anything but perfect here to avoid dropping to a wild card, let alone a number one seed.
Green Bay might have the toughest schedule. They’ve got a date in Denver sandwiched between two Bears games, one of which is going to be all run in a frozen Christmas season tundra for a possible shot at the NFC North. After that, they get the Ravens, who will test any team, and their final tilt against the Vikings. Given that the Packers’ passing attack has been a big threat this year, the strength of the run game and defense will be essential to closing out the year for them. They end with what should-be-easy-but-it’s-still-your-division game with the Vikings. Like Detroit, they’ll have to stay on cue to not drop the divisional race, let alone the NFC race.
The only other team that might have a tougher schedule is Seattle. They’ve got an easy (what should be easy) Falcons matchup, and then the Colts (who will really test that run defense, which I think will stand up to the challenge), the Rams again, Carolina, and then the 9ers. They could easily win all of those games, given how they played in L.A., but I think that they end the year with maybe the toughest test of all of these teams here. After the run heavy cold months of December and November, the last thing that you want to do is have to run into a winning team with a strong defensive line. The 9ers aren’t firing on all cylinders, but you still would rather face somebody else I think to end your year. I don’t think they’ll win out, which will probably be necessary to overtake L.A.
The easiest schedule of these teams going forward has to be the Eagles. This would be tougher if Herbert wasn’t hurt, but they are buoyed by having not one, but both of their Washington games in the final weeks. They play the Chargers, and the worst team in the league in the Raiders (either them or the Saints are probably the worst). Their toughest team is the Bills, who are good, but really are about as good as Josh Allen is on any given day, and who have defensive questions of their own. I think Philly has a very strong chance to win out and retake the one seed, even if I think that they’re not better than all of the other teams on this list. Their offense is unsteady, with inconsistent quarterback play that can’t compensate for the lackluster run game (or force teams to defend the pass as much as they should). However, you still need to score on the Eagles, and their defense is still really good. The offense is going to score enough to make you do that, and I don’t know if these remaining teams in the regular season can do that.
Like I said, it’s about scheduling, more than it is about who is the best. Some of teams just need a chance to get in, and some are going to be propped up by early season success. The Eagles the team that most needs a bye week, though, in my mind, to prepare for another opponent and get their disjointed offense on track, so if they get the one, I think it boosts their game much more than the others-and it will help their defense carry water for the offense. I think it really comes down to Philadelphia and L.A., and whomever edges the other out, it’ll probably be within a game.
The Bear’s remaining schedule is tough. Two against GB, a home game against the Browns (trap game) and at SF and home against the Lions…
It’s shaping up to be a pretty great race to the end. Gonna need some nail biters.
It’ll definitely help the team grow, though. They’re going to cut their against almost all of the top contenders in the NFC. Detrimental if you’re trying to make the playoffs this one year, but definitely good for a young team learning how to compete at a high level.
Agreed. They’re going to be a problem if Caleb develops into a dependable QB and they can find a pass rush.
I think what Bearmeat is trying to say is that Chicago would be a annual Super Bowl contender if Caleb Williams can find a constant level of superior performance much like Bearmeat’s consistency at demonstrating his lack of knowledge and his overall stupidity.
Don’t write off the 49ers yet either. They are heating up and will take #1 if they win out & Seattle beats LA. Both are entirely possible. They’re on a bye this week too
ESPN’s Football Power Index …(insert giggles here).
I picked Seattle because I am a Seahawk fan. If not for one of the best punts of the season Seattle beats the Rams even with the TOs. Our schedule is tough but I would prefer that to an easy one. Fight to get into the playoffs and not just glide in. Hawks pull it out.
Packers all the way!…oh wait…I’ve taken Bearmeat’s medications by mistake 🙂
I don’t think the Packers will go all the way. I just think they’ll win a mediocre division, get to the 2nd round of the playoffs, and lose.
But hey. That’s why they play the games!
I will concede this to Bearmeat as no one knows more about “not going all the way” than Bearmeat does.
Dear AK285, every time I see ur name I think I’m BACK IN SCHOOL. I DONT WANT TO READ A ENCYCLOPEDA.
Fortunately for you there are plenty of 1-line posts here so your little brain doesn’t get overwhelmed
Understood. I will dedicate more time to make sure that you do not read encyclopedias.
The 49ers path isn’t as crazy as you might think. They need to win out (which, yeah, difficult job but the Colts and Bears are still kind of question marks at this point) and need Seattle to beat the Rams. If both of those things happen they will finish as #1 regardless of what anyone else does
I don’t think that’s crazy. Hard, but not crazy. The big task with the Colts is stopping the run. San Fran isn’t elite at that, but they’re better than you’d think with all of the injuries. You really have to credit Salah with elevating the defensive line and front seven play after losing Warner and Bosa. How Kendricks plays will be pivotal in helping stop the run from Indy inside, which is important for setting up Jones’ passing game. A win’s doable against all of their remaining teams this year.
I think the Seahawks beating the Rams is possible, too, given how their last matchup went. Both teams are going to make adjustments, but Seattle’s ability to defend the pass gives them a better chance to defeat the Rams’ aerial attack than L.A.’s other opponents.
This will be an interesting weekend for the 49ers on a bye.
They will be the 6th seed regardless after this weekend since Chicago plays GB.
If either of the Rams or Seahawks lose (which I’m not counting on), they jump to 5th. If they both lose, Niners jump to the 2 seed.