Considerable David Bailey-to-New York buzz has built as the pre-draft process nears its conclusion. The Texas Tech pass rusher’s high floor has been viewed as likelier to make him the No. 2 overall pick — as of late, at least — compared to Arvell Reese.
Reese is viewed as a higher-ceiling talent, albeit one that is not quite as safe an option as Bailey looks to be, as he carries a hybrid skillset into the draft. Reese is aiming to be used as an edge rusher despite Ohio State deploying him as such on fewer than 100 snaps last season. No. 2 overall is not exactly good value for an off-ball linebacker, giving teams considering Reese a crucial assignment in determining a usage plan.
The Jets would make sense for Reese due to their EDGE need and timeline, and they were viewed as more likely to go with the ex-Buckeye than Bailey not too long ago. While Bailey may now be winning out, SNY’s Connor Hughes does not view the Texas Tech pass rusher as certain to go No. 2 overall. In fact, Hughes believes Reese is the Jets’ more likely pick.
If Reese is the Jets’ pick, a Cardinals team that has regularly chosen hybrid linebackers in Round 1 could pounce on Bailey. Our Ely Allen pointed to Arizona probably wanting Bailey more than Reese in his PFR mock draft, and this scenario playing out would give Nick Rallis a locked-in starter opposite Josh Sweat. Though, Bailey’s game has generated some concerns about run defense. The Jets added multiple standout pass rushers with run-game issues in recent years — in Will McDonald and Bryce Huff — and one head coach (via Hughes) compared Bailey to McDonald. Another NFL source labeled Reese as an ideal player for Aaron Glenn to mold.
A potential conflict could emerge regarding Glenn’s timetable. If the Jets stumble to the degree they did in 2025, the head coach is far from certain to be brought back for 2027. But New York’s timetable aligns toward a late-2020s reemergence — after another rebuilding year this season — considering three first-round picks await next year. GM Darren Mougey, based on the time ownership gave previous GMs Joe Douglas and Mike Maccagnan (five drafts apiece), is likelier to be remain in place compared to Glenn. Would the HC want more of a sure thing in Bailey compared to a slightly less certain prospect in this draft?
This situation reminds of the Jaguars’ 2022 debate, which pitted Travon Walker‘s upside against Aidan Hutchinson‘s college production. Bailey (12 sacks at Stanford from 2023-24) brings a better college body of work than Hutchinson (4.5 sacks before his breakthrough final Michigan season).
Detroit won out based on Jacksonville making a tools-driven pick in Walker. Hutchinson and Walker’s second contracts did not end up in the same ballpark. The stakes are high for the Jets, whose playoff drought reached 15 seasons last year. With the Buffalo Sabres making the NHL playoffs this year, Gang Green’s drought leads all active teams in major American sports.
The Jets canceled their “30” visit with Bailey last week (the team met with Reese in March). The Bailey development either points to New York being confident enough in a safer prospect, as to not waste his time on a trip, or the team leaning toward Reese. This storyline leans into the NFL’s smokescreen season well, making for more pre-draft intrigue. With the Raiders a near-certainty to start the draft with Fernando Mendoza, the Jets’ Bailey-Reese call effectively starts this year’s drama.
I don’t adore Bailey’s upside and I think his being the safer prospect is overblown. I don’t know if he’ll ever be a strong run defender and there’s at least a little off-field concern with him. Reese has more question marks about what his exact role will be, but we’ve seen him do things at a high level that translate to NFL usage, and he’s still very young. I’d prefer Reese.
@Oooof. It’s like walker and Hutchinson. Bailey has better numbers, and it probably wont matter in the long run barring injuries. Jets pulling the meeting probably means they will pick him, and didn’t want to burn a visit.
It was right before the visit deadline. They didn’t use all of theirs. Many teams don’t. I think it could just as easily mean they’d decided on Reese already.
And I don’t think this is all that similar to Hutchinson-Walker. Hutchinson was a much cleaner prospect than Bailey is.
@Oooof. We can agree to disagree, but he is the highest graded player, led the league in pressures and destroyed the top tackles in college, dude was in the backfield after the snap. Im comparing Hutchinson because he was already finished. Reese is a upside guy like walker. But Bailey is definitely a safe pick.
Crazy thought, could the jets do a trade with the cardinals ala the trubisky trade if they are not sure which they want and pick up some later picks by just moving down a pick?
Doubt it happens but who knows.
Seems like the Cardinals very likely want to move down, especially if they’re looking offensive line. The trade up one spot makes much more sense if there’s someone posing a huge threat to trade up to that spot instead of you, which is more likely in a quarterback spot.