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Teams Facing Offseason Quarterback Decisions

November 28th, 2014 at 10:22am CST by Luke Adams

No position in the NFL – or, arguably, in any of North America’s major sports leagues – is more crucial to a team’s success than quarterback. And by our count, half the teams in the league shouldn’t have to worry about the position this offseason at all.

Many of these 16 clubs have an established veteran who remains under contract for multiple seasons, like the Packers with Aaron Rodgers or the Patriots with Tom Brady. Others don’t necessarily have an elite veteran quarterback, but have recently committed a high draft pick to a young signal-caller who is still expected to be the long-term answer — think Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota or Blake Bortles with the Jaguars.

However, the other half of the league’s teams have some uncertainty at the position. In some instances, a team will actively pursue a starting quarterback in the draft of free agency. For other teams, it’s simply a matter of ensuring that the current QB gets locked up for a few more years beyond next season.

Here’s an early look at those teams that should need to address the quarterback situation in one way or another during the offseason:

Teams with no clear-cut starter for 2015:

  • Buffalo Bills: Both players who have started at quarterback this year for the Bills could theoretically be back for the 2015 season — Kyle Orton has a second-year option on his deal, while E.J. Manuel‘s rookie contract runs through 2016. Neither player has asserted himself as a real answer for the club this season, but without a first-round pick, the Bills will be hard-pressed to find a long-term solution in the offseason.
  • Cleveland Browns: Unlike many of the teams in this group, the Browns actually may have two plausible options at quarterback, rather than none. The question GM Ray Farmer and his staff must answer is whether the team will hitch its wagon to Brian Hoyer or Johnny Manziel, or whether both players will return for 2015. Hoyer is eligible for free agency in March, so Cleveland could simply let him walk if the team believes Manziel will be ready to take over.
  • Houston Texans: Even if the Texans had seen enough from Ryan Mallett to think he was their future starter, he’s a free agent at season’s end, so there’s no guarantee he returns. Perhaps Houston views Tom Savage as its future starter, but I’d be surprised if the team doesn’t seek out alternatives this winter.
  • New York Jets: Like the Bills, the Jets haven’t had any success with their young quarterback (Geno Smith) or their veteran stopgap (Michael Vick). Smith could get one more chance in 2015 depending on how he finishes this season and who is coaching the team next year, but there are certainly no guarantees for the former second-round pick.
  • St. Louis Rams: Coming off another season-ending knee injury and owed a base salary of nearly $13MM in 2015, Sam Bradford is a strong candidate to become a cap casualty in the offseason. Austin Davis likely isn’t the Rams’ long-term signal-caller of choice, so St. Louis looks like a team that could target a QB in the draft. The Rams are currently projected to select 12th overall.
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Glennon received a vote of confidence as the Buccaneers’ “quarterback of the future” in the offseason from head coach Lovie Smith, but with Glennon currently backing up ineffective veteran Josh McCown, it’s not clear if the Bucs continue to stand by that stance. Glennon and McCown are both under contract for next season, so maybe Tampa Bay will try again with the duo and hope for better results, but with a potential top-five – or at least top-10 – pick on the way, the club will have to at least consider drafting a QB.
  • Tennessee Titans: Former first-rounder Jake Locker is on an expiring contract and appears to be on his way out of Tennessee. That could leave Zach Mettenberger as 2015’s starter, but the LSU product was a sixth-rounder and will have only a half-season of experience heading into next year. Presumably, like the Bucs, the Titans would have to take a long look at quarterbacks with their potential top-10 draft pick.
  • Washington: Amazingly, it was only two and a half years ago that Washington was giving up the farm in order to land Robert Griffin III. Now, it’s looks like there’s a reasonable chance that RGIII’s time in D.C. is coming to an end. Head coach Jay Gruden doesn’t seem any more enamored with Kirk Cousins than he is with Griffin, and Colt McCoy isn’t a long-term solution, so Washington is another team that could target a quarterback near the top of 2015’s draft. If they don’t go that route, Griffin could ultimately get the nod for at least one more year.

Teams facing decisions on options or extensions:

  • Carolina Panthers: As the first overall pick in 2011, Cam Newton remains under contract for one more season because the Panthers exercised his fifth-year option for 2015. Still, it seems unlikely that the team would let him play Week 1 without a new deal. In all likelihood, it’ll be a matter of when – not if – Newton and the Panthers reach a long-term agreement, which could provide a notable benchmark for the quarterbacks from the 2012 draft.
  • Indianapolis Colts: One of those 2012 quarterbacks is Andrew Luck, and again, it’s a matter of when – not if – he signs a new long-term contract with his current team. He becomes eligible for an extension this winter, but the Colts could choose to simply pick up his 2016 option and put off long-term negotiations another year.
  • Miami Dolphins: Unlike Luck, Ryan Tannehill isn’t a lock to have his fifth-year option exercised. Still, despite Tannehill’s ups and downs over the years, and despite an expected price tag of about $15MM on that 2016 option, I’d expect the Dolphins to exercise it. It’s not immediately fully guaranteed, and even if it were, Tannehill has done enough this year that he’s worth keeping around for an extra year at that price, if not locking up to a full-fledged, multiyear deal.
  • New York Giants: Eli Manning and the Giants have both expressed interest in continuing the relationship, and I anticipate that’ll be exactly what happens. Manning’s current pact expires after the 2015 season, so the two sides should get serious about an extension this winter.
  • Philadelphia Eagles: Perhaps the Eagles should be included in the section above, since we can’t say with 100% certainty that Nick Foles will reclaim his starting role in 2015, given how shaky he was early this season. Still, I’d be pretty surprised if Philadelphia went another direction. Because he wasn’t a first-round pick in 2012, Foles doesn’t have a fifth-year option, meaning his deal will expire after 2015, and the Eagles will have to make a decision on him soon. In my view, Foles could start the ’15 season without a new deal and – if the Eagles like what they see – he could sign an in-season extension like Carson Palmer did with the Cardinals this year.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers: Another instance where it’s only a matter of time until a new deal gets done — the Steelers will likely sign Ben Roethlisberger to a contract this offseason that locks him up beyond 2015. The team has already indicated that negotiations will resume at season’s end.
  • San Diego Chargers: Another veteran who should remain with his current team, Philip Rivers is expected to re-open extension discussions with the Chargers after the season. His current deal expires after 2015.
  • Seattle Seahawks: Like Foles, Russell Wilson is a third-round pick whose rookie contract doesn’t feature a fifth-year option. As such, the Seahawks may be more aggressive about working out a multiyear extension sooner rather than later with their franchise quarterback, whose deal runs through the 2015 season.

Pro Football Rumors Features

November 27th, 2014 at 11:47am CST by Luke Adams

Pro Football Rumors passes along the latest news and rumors on NFL player movement 365 days a year, but those aren’t the only updates you’ll see on the site. On our right sidebar, you’ll find a number of additional features and featured posts. Here’s a rundown of a few of them:

  • Using your iOs and Android devices, you can use our app to follow the latest stories on PFR, MLB Trade Rumors, and Hoops Rumors. The Trade Rumors app is highly customizable, allowing you to add feeds for any of the 92 MLB, NBA, and NFL teams, as well as for any of the thousands of players in our archives.
  • We’re inching closer to the offseason, and in several NFL cities, fans may already be looking ahead to free agency, considering what players their favorite teams could add to their rosters this winter. You can find the full breakdown of 2015 veteran free agents by position using our list, which is updated weekly during the season.
  • Several players figure to receive contract extensions from their respective teams between now and the start of the 2015 free agent period, and we’ve identified a number of potential recipients in our Extension Candidate series, which profiles players eligible for extensions and assesses their value. As the list shows, many of the players we’ve profiled have since had their contracts extended.
  • The NFL isn’t known as a trade-happy league, but by our count, 50 trades were consummated by teams in 2014, and you can find them all on our recap of 2014 NFL trades. Meanwhile, you can keep tabs on traded draft picks for 2015 with our tracker.
  • We keep tabs on the latest roster moves around the NFL via our lists of roster counts and practice squad rosters. Additionally, we provide a breakdown of how teams used the designated-to-return slot on their injured reserve this year.
  • The Pro Football Rumors glossary highlights a number of aspects of the NFL’s salary cap, free agency, and Collective Bargaining Agreement. Feel free to let us know if there’s a specific concept that you’d like us to discuss in a future Glossary piece.
  • We value your input at PFR, which is why we regularly publish polls and have a regular feature called Pigskin Links, in which we highlight a few interesting recent articles from football blogs. You can find our poll archives here and our Pigskin Links pieces right here.
  • While a handful of our notable articles can be found under the “Featured Posts” section on the right sidebar, the PFR Originals archive rounds up all the original posts from our staff. Recently, we took a look at early returns on contract extension decisions for 2011 first-rounders, examined the teams with the most salary on injured reserve, posted the first edition of our 2015 free agent power rankings.

PFR Originals: 11/16/14 – 11/23/14

November 23rd, 2014 at 2:26pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.
  • Luke Adams posted the complete list of 2015 NFL Free Agents, a compilation that will be updated throughout the year.
  • I examined the FA class and published the first edition of our 2015 Free Agent Power Rankings, with Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston taking the top spot.
  • Luke noted that five clubs failed to use their injured reserve/designated to return slots, and looked at how the remaining 25 teams did utilize their IR-DTR spot.
  • The Patriots quickly snatched up veteran running back LeGarrette Blount after he was let go by the Steelers, and he’s already rushed for a touchdown against the Lions today. Zach wondered if Blount is a good bet to return to New England in 2015, and about 58% of voters said yes.
  • Before Blount signed with the Patriots and Ben Tate was claimed by the Vikings, Luke asked if either running back would make a worthwhile addition for the remainder of the season. The majority of readers felt that Tate, who was waived by the Browns, would be the better option. Thanks for voting!
  • Don’t forget to download the free Trade Rumors app, available for both iOS and Android.

2015 Free Agent Power Rankings

November 21st, 2014 at 10:39pm CST by Dallas Robinson

As we approach Week 12 of the NFL season, teams are able to undergo something of a self-assessment and determine whether they are legitimate playoff contenders. Additionally, clubs can begin to look toward the offseason, examine their current personnel, and decide where improvements can be pursued. With that in mind, we’re unveiling the inaugural edition of PFR’s 2015 Free Agent Power Rankings, an overview of the talent available in next year’s FA class.

A couple of things to keep in mind: First, we’ll only be looking at unrestricted free agents. Restricted free agency is tough to evaluate because it’s unclear at what level RFAs will be tendered. Also, restricted free agents rarely change teams, so sticking with UFAs will streamline this exercise. Second, in today’s NFL, available cap space is often utilized on five key positions — quarterback, left tackle, wide receiver, cornerback, and pass-rusher. Because there aren’t any impact QBs or LTs available in the 2015 crop, this list is exceptionally WR-, CB-, and DE/OLB-heavy.

1. Justin Houston, OLB: Leading the league with 13 sacks, Houston, 26 in January, will be the premier defensive player available when free agency begins in March. He has youth on his side, his production has increased each year he’s been in the league, and he plays one of the most critical defensive positions. Unsurprisingly, he grades as the best 3-4 outside ‘backer among 46 qualifiers per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), excelling both against the run and the pass. Jason Cole of Bleacher Report recently reported that though the Chiefs previously had concerns about extending Houston, a long-term deal is now expected to get worked out, with the edge-rusher receiving a contract that will pay him a little less than J.J. Watt.

2. Ndamukong Suh, DT: A defensive tackle wouldn’t typically be listed among top-of-the-line free agents, but Suh is unarguably a game-changer on the defensive side of the ball. He is sixth in sacks among DTs, and is a stopper against the run as well, rating as PFF’s No. 1 DT in that capacity — he also rates as the league’s best overall defensive tackle. Suh, the second overall pick in the 2010 draft, is a key contributor to a Lions defense that rates first in both yards allowed and DVOA. He currently earns about $12.9MM under the terms of his rookie contract. Fellow defensive tackle (and 2010 draft class member) Gerald McCoy recently signed a extension with an AAV of $13.6MM, a figure that Suh will surely aim to best.

3. Demaryius Thomas, WR: With a torrid 2014, Thomas, 27 next month, has cemented his status as the best pass-catcher available. Through 10 games, he’s racked up 72 receptions for 1,105 yards and six touchdowns as the No. 1 target on the league’s best offense. Thomas is tied for second among WRs with 17 receptions for 20+ yards. Doubters may opine that Thomas’ production is inflated by playing with Peyton Manning, and while there’s probably some merit to that, Thomas is still an excellent player who will do well in free agency. The Broncos don’t expect to sign Thomas during the season, and if he reaches the open market, he should reach the $14MM AAV that PFR’s Luke Adams projected in June.

4. Dez Bryant, WR: The latest news revolving around Bryant includes a rumored long-term proposal from the Cowboys in the 10-year, $114MM range, but with only $20MM in guarantees. It seems as though there’s some contentiousness on both sides, and with Bryant recently signing on with Roc Nation, talks could only get more harsh. Additionally, Dallas is short on cap space, and with DeMarco Murray also a pending free agent, the club could be faced with difficult decisions. A franchise tag is possible if the two parties can’t reach an agreement, but a long-term pact is probably in the better interests of both team and player. On the season, Bryant has 56 receptions for 793 yards and eight touchdowns.

5. Chris Harris, CB: While the 2014 free agent class contained many shutdown corners, including Darrelle Revis, Aqib Talib, and Vontae Davis, this year’s crop doesn’t have the same level of top-end talent. Additionally, a number of No. 1 CBs like Richard Sherman, Patrick Peterson, and Joe Haden have signed recent contract extensions, so positional scarcity will cause Harris’ stock to rise. It doesn’t hurt that he grades as the league’s best corner, per Pro Football Focus, who give him a +17.2 mark against the pass. While the Broncos and Harris were reportedly discussing a new deal earlier this month, talks evidently stalled recently. It’s not out of the question that Harris could match the $13-14MM per year that Sherman, Haden, et al. received.

6. Jason Pierre-Paul, DE: Pierre-Paul was perhaps the most difficult player to slot on this list. He has name value, has been a part of historic defensive units, plays a preeminent position, and is the league’s best run defender among 4-3 DEs, per PFF. However, since his 16.5-sack season in 2011, he hasn’t been adept at bringing down the quarterback. In 2014, he’s accrued only 3.5 sacks. Still, he’ll be just 26 in February, and his potential should be able to secure him a contract in the $12MM AAV range.

7. Randall Cobb, WR: Cobb is the youngest free agent on this list (he tuned 24 in August), and his youth could be a key factor in his receiving a large contact. The Packers already extended fellow receiver Jordy Nelson, and it’s unclear whether the club will want to heavily invest in one position group. Still, we heard last night that league insiders don’t expect Green Bay GM Ted Thompson to let Cobb hit free agency. Cobb leads WRs with 10 receiving touchdowns, and is tops in terms of DYAR. Although I estimated in October that he would sign a contract similar to that of Golden Tate (five years, $31MM), I’m starting to think that was a little light.

8. Jeremy Maclin, WR: The concerns about Maclin are obvious: he’ll be 27 next season, he suffered a torn ACL in 2013, and though his numbers are impressive, he plays in an offense designed to produce eye-popping statistics. Still, Maclin, who’s caught 57 balls for 921 yards and nine touchdowns, should be able to find a large deal when he hits free agency. He signed a one-year deal worth $6MM to stay with the Eagles for 2014, but as Luke noted when examining Maclin as an extension candidate, it’s conceivable that he could match or exceed the five-year, $36.25 deal that Eric Decker received from the Jets.

9. Julius Thomas, TE: Following his 2013 breakout, Thomas is again playing like of the best tight ends in the league. His 12 touchdowns lead the NFL, and he’s third in DYAR among TEs. If the Broncos are able to work out an extension with Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas is extremely likely to be slapped with the franchise tag. The franchise figure for tight ends, which was $7.035MM last season, would be manageable for Denver. If he does hit the open market, Thomas should easily secure a deal that would place him among the top-five highest-paid TEs. Is it possible he challenges Jimmy Graham‘s four-year, $40MM pact?

10. DeMarco Murray, RB: It might be surprising to see the NFL’s best running back in 2014 listed at the bottom of these rankings, but it’s important to remember that running back is a severely devalued position. As Grantland’s Bill Barnwell outlined yesterday, contracts for free agent RBs go awry more often than not, and Murray isn’t without question marks, specifically in the health department. Additionally, Murray could face competition from backs we know will be free agents – like Mark Ingram and Frank Gore – and those we think will hit the open market, like Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch. Ultimately, Murray will probably earn a lot less than most observers currently estimate.

Also considered: Cliff Avril, Brandon Flowers, Greg Hardy, Jerry Hughes, Mark Ingram, Devin McCourty, Brian Orakpo, Michael Roos, Jason Worilds.

Five Teams Leave IR-DTR Spot Unused

November 21st, 2014 at 12:04pm CST by Luke Adams

Each year, NFL teams have the option of placing one player on their injured reserve list without necessarily ending his season. That player is designated to return, a move that allows him to begin practicing six weeks after he’s placed on IR, and makes him eligible to return to game action after eight weeks.

It’s a useful tool for NFL clubs who want to open up a spot on their active rosters, but don’t necessarily want to lose a player for the season with what may not be a long-term injury. During the 2014 season, 27 of 32 teams took advantage of the IR-DTR slot, while the remaining five clubs never ended up using it. And as we head into Week 12, there’s little point in using the designation now, since there are only six weeks left in the season. The following five teams declined to use their IR-DTR spots this season:

  • Houston Texans
  • Miami Dolphins
  • Minnesota Vikings
  • New York Jets
  • Tennessee Titans

All five teams have plenty of players on their season-ending injured reserve list, and it’s possible that in some cases using that shorter-term designation on a player would have allowed him enough time to recover and to return this season. But for the majority of these clubs’ most notable injuries, there was no chance of those players coming back in 2014 — for instance, Jets cornerback Dee Milliner and Titans safety Bernard Pollard both tore their Achilles tendons, while Dolphins tackle Branden Albert tore his ACL and MCL.

Here’s how the league’s other 27 teams used their IR-DTR spots this season. Players listed in italics have since been re-activated by their respective clubs:

Poll: Will Blount Be With Pats In 2015?

November 20th, 2014 at 5:53pm CST by Zachary Links

While running back Ben Tate had little trouble finding a home, no team in the NFL was willing to add LeGarrette Blount to their roster at his sticker price when he was let go by the Steelers. The talented but troubled tailback signed a two-year, $3.85MM deal with the Steelers in March but his time as Le’Veon Bell‘s understudy came to an end after he left the field before the end of Sunday’s game against the Titans. There were several teams with a need for an RB like Blount but it’s safe to say that teams were scared off by his troubled history.

A quick refresher of Blount’s resume, for those that don’t remember. While at Oregon in 2009, Blount punched a Boise State player in a face following a 19-8 loss, putting him on the national map for all the wrong reasons. In 2010, he signed with the Titans as an undrafted free agent, but found himself in a training camp skirmish with a teammate. In August of this year, Blount and Bell were arrested for marijuana possession while in a car together. The early walk-off was apparently the final straw for the Steelers, but the timing of the move leads one to believe that they have been fed up with Blount for some time. Of course, somewhere in the middle of all of that, Blount looked the part of a superstar in Tampa Bay for some time and proved to be a very effective power back for the Patriots during his first New England stint in 2013.

Now, Blount has circled back to the Pats and even though his two-year deal probably doesn’t carry much in the way of guaranteed dollars for 2015, the Pats are probably looking at him as more than a patch-in addition. Blount joins a crowded backfield that features Brandon Bolden, James White, new breakout Jonas Gray, and Shane Vereen with Stevan Ridley on injured reserve. However, with Ridley, Vereen, and Bolden are all set to hit the open market this offseason, there could certainly be room for Blount in New England’s future plans.

The Patriots are obviously familiar with Blount’s problems but the fact that they have a history with him and were willing to sign him anyway says a lot about their experience with him. Do you expect the former Oregon star to remain with the Patriots next season?

Will Blount Be On The Pats' Roster To Start The 2015 Season?
Yes 54.98% (171 votes)
No 45.02% (140 votes)
Total Votes: 311

2015 NFL Free Agents

November 17th, 2014 at 4:30pm CST by Luke Adams

Pro Football Rumors’ up-to-date list of 2015 NFL free agents is below. These are players who are eligible for restricted or unrestricted free agency after the 2014 season. The player’s 2015 age is in parentheses. Players are sorted by the position at which they played most in ’14, or the position at which their most recent team listed them.

Players who finished the 2014 season on an NFL roster but don’t have a contract for 2014 are listed below, along with a few other notable free agents who didn’t finish the 2014 season on an NFL roster. Players eligible for restricted free agency are marked with (R), while exclusive rights free agents are not included. Franchise and transition players are marked with (F) and (T) respectively. All other free agents are assumed to be unrestricted.

If you have any corrections or omissions, please contact us. For instant free agent updates, be sure to follow us on Twitter @pfrumors.

Updated 9-4-15 (4:00pm CT)

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PFR Originals: 11/9/14 – 11/16/14

November 16th, 2014 at 2:32pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • I profiled Patriots safety Devin McCourty in the latest entry in our Extension Candidate series, and examined what a potential long-term deal between New England and the Rutgers product would look like.
  • The AFC North is the tightest division in the NFL, and any one of the Bengals, Browns, Ravens, and Steelers could be viewed as a viable favorite to finish in first place. Luke Adams asked which club was likely to take the top spot, and the voting displayed just how close the race is. Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati all received between 26% and 28% of the vote, with Baltimore garnering 20%.
  • We’ll surely see some coaching changes when the season comes to a close, and with that in mind, Rob DiRe wondered which current coordinator is poised to take on a head coaching role. Cardinals defensive coordinator Todd Bowles finished first in the poll at 27%. Thanks for voting!

Extension Candidate: Devin McCourty

November 9th, 2014 at 5:51pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Despite a reputation for mastering the draft process, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick’s record of procuring and developing defensive back talent isn’t very impressive. Over the past decade, Belichick has regrettably used first- and second-round picks on players such such as Terrence Wheatley (2008), Darius Butler (2009), and Ras-I Dowling (2Devin McCourty011), each of whom failed to live up to expectations. Not every attempt to add pieces to the New England secondary has been a disaster, as Brandon Meriweather (2007) and Patrick Chung (2009) proved somewhat useful during their tenure with the Pats. However, no Patriots defensive back draft selection of the past ten years has matched the production of 2010 first-rounder Devin McCourty, whose rookie contract expires after this season.

Since joining the Patriots four years ago, the 27-year-old McCourty has displayed impressive versatility in addition to excellent play. During his first two seasons in the league, he played strictly cornerback, and was employed primarily on the left side of the defense. The Rutgers product regressed from his rookie season to his sophomore campaign — though he graded as the league’s seventh-best CB in 2010, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), he fell to 57th in 2011. McCourty was still effective against the run in ’11, but his coverage grade lagged, which might have factored into New England’s decision to convert him to safety.

The positional transformation began in 2012, as McCourty began splitting his snaps between corner and safety. He spent more time at S (about 57% of his snaps), and PFF rated him as above-average at both positions. McCourty’s best season to-date came last year, when he finished with 58 tackles and one interception in 15 games, and ended up as the No. 1 safety in the league per PFF’s metrics. He’s started every game this season, and been a factor in both pass and run coverage, accruing 20 tackles and one pick.

Given that the Patriots added Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner via free agency during the offseason, it’s a little surprising that their pass defense isn’t among the NFL’s elite. New England ranks 19th in passing yards allowed, 11th in yards per attempt allowed, and 16th in pass defense DVOA. However, Browner didn’t play until Week 6 following a suspension, so the unit has had much time to mesh. Additionally, the Patriots pass-rush isn’t special, meaning opposing quarterbacks have a lot of time to attack New England’s secondary. Though they rank 13th in sacks, the Pats are 28th in adjusted sack rate, a figure that doesn’t figure to improve as long as Chandler Jones is sidelined with an injury.

Nevertheless, it seems to be a given that the Patriots would want to retain McCourty, who was named an All-Pro in both 2010 and 2013. Given that Revis won’t return to New England unless he negotiates a new deal (he’s signed for 2015, but with a $25MM cap charge, he’ll be cut), the Patriots probably want to keep their leader in the secondary around. News surrounding McCourty extension talks has been slim, but Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com reported in early August that two sides had exchanged initial proposals, but weren’t overly close to an agreement. At the time, La Canfora noted that talks could heat up before the season; while that obviously didn’t happen, it wouldn’t be shock to see a deal struck in-season.

McCourty is earning $3.92MM in base salary this season. Add in his prorated roster bonus, and a $50K workout bonus, and he counts $5.115MM against the cap. When discussing an extension, he and his representatives would surely look to either match or exceed the deals signed by Earl Thomas and Jairus Byrd earlier this year. Both are rangy free safeties like McCourty, as opposed to in-the-box strong safeties like Dashon Goldson, so their contracts work well as comparables. Thomas’ deal was an extension, however, while Byrd joined the Saints via free agency, so his contract might present the better option for locating a benchmark.

Thomas, who is two years younger than McCourty, received $40MM over four years, with nearly half ($19.725MM) guaranteed. McCourty has been the better player since he made the switch to full-time safety per PFF, but the advanced metrics aren’t the be-all, end-all of player evaluation. Soft factors are important, as well — McCourty doesn’t have the reputation that Thomas, regarded as the league’s best safety, does. Additionally, Thomas was coming off a season as a key component of one of the best pass defenses in NFL history as he discussed an extension with Seattle; McCourty, as noted, plays on a below-average unit.

I don’t think McCourty will be able to match Thomas’ contract; at $10MM per season, Thomas redefined the market for safeties in a way that I don’t believe McCourty can. But $9MM a per year, the same amount Byrd received, should be in reach for McCourty. And while Byrd only got 33.9% of his total deal guaranteed, McCourty would likely see more than that — I’d peg it closer to Thomas’ 49.3%, so perhaps around $17MM over a four-year contract. In total, a four-year extension worth roughly $37MM, with $17-18MM guaranteed, would make sense for both sides. The Patriots like to use in-game roster bonuses in their deals, but given that McCourty doesn’t have an injury history or character concerns, I wouldn’t expect them to be too large.

New England’s fiscal situation shouldn’t present a barrier to negotiations. The Patriots currently have $4.281MM in 2015 cap space available, but they can save about $3.3MM by releasing Danny Amendola and Michael Hoomanawanui. The club can clear an additional ~$7.567MM by parting ways with veteran defensive tackle Vince Wilfork, a move that seems likely given his lack of production this season.

If a deal can’t be worked out, the club has the option to place the franchise tag on McCourty. Safety had the third-cheapest tag figure in 2014, exceeding only tight end and kicker/punter, and that probably won’t change next season. The number itself will rise from $8.433MM, but so will the league-wide salary cap, so the figure shouldn’t present a problem. Securing a player with McCourty’s talent on a one-year deal for around $9MM would be a steal, but both the team and the player would surely like to work out a contract that enables McCourty to remain in New England for the forseeable future.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PFR Originals: 11/2/14 – 11/9/14

November 9th, 2014 at 2:30pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

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