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Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Steelers

By | at February 24, 2015 11:03 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Ben Roethlisberger, QB: $18,395,000
  2. Lawrence Timmons, LB: $12,566,250
  3. Antonio Brown, WR: $9,787,500
  4. Troy Polamalu, S: $8,250,000
  5. Maurkice Pouncey, C: $8,100,000
  6. Cortez Allen, CB: $6,981,000
  7. Marcus Gilbert, T: $6,980,000
  8. Cameron Heyward, DL: $6,969,000
  9. Heath Miller, TE: $5,666,666
  10. Mike Mitchell, S: $4,950,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 22 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

By virtue of a Week 17 victory against division rival Cincinnati, the Steelers snagged the AFC North title in 2014, which is impressive enough in its own right, but especially so when considering that the division sent three teams to the playoffs last year. Much of Pittsburgh’s success was built on its tremendous offensive performance, as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger enjoyed a career year behind an offensive line that managed to keep him mostly upright, and Le’Veon Bell established himself as a premier all-purpose threat. Antonio Brown, meanwhile, proved that he is one of the league’s most prolific receivers, catching an incredible 129 passes for nearly 1,700 yards. He even added a passing touchdown and a punt return touchdown to the 13 TDs that he hauled in through the air. Combined with the strong showings of second-year wideout Markus Wheaton and rookie Martavis Bryant, the Steelers offense looks like it will be a powerhouse for the foreseeable future.

The defense, though, was a different story, and its underwhelming performance played a major role in the team’s disappointing defeat at the hands of wildcard entrant Baltimore in the first round of the playoffs. According to Pro Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric, Pittsburgh’s defense was the third-worst in the league in 2014, while their offense was the second-best. The secondary’s performance was especially troubling, and that unit will be a primary focal point of the team’s offseason.

Former NFL agent Joel Corry recently tabbed the Steelers as having one of the worst salary cap situations in the league, and even the inevitable extension of Roethlisberger’s contract and the departure of a few aging veterans would not bring a ton of relief. After years of so-called salary cap hell, the Steelers will once again have to make every penny count over the next few months.

Key Free Agents

There are several notable names on the Steelers’ list of pending free agents, but only one is likely to generate a great deal of discussion: Jason Worilds. Pittsburgh used the transition tag on Worilds last season, and it has not ruled out using it again in 2015. The cost for the transition tag this year, though, will likely be around $11MM, and just last week GM Kevin Colbert implied that Worilds’ time in Pittsburgh may be up.

Jason Worilds (vertical)

Worilds ranked as the 11th-best 3-4 outside linebacker out of 46 qualified players according to Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required), and his departure would leave a bit of a gap in the team’s pass rush, which has been among the league’s worst in each of the last two seasons. But although Worilds is a good player, he is not a great player at this point in his career, and the Steelers may be better off spending their money elsewhere. Although sack totals are by no means the best way to measure a player–particularly a player like Worilds, who has shown that he can also play well against the run–Worilds’ eight sacks suggest that his production would not be irreplaceable.

Outside of Worilds, the remainder of Pittsburgh’s free agent crop is rather underwhelming. Although Ike Taylor and James Harrison conjure fond memories for Steelers fans, their play has inevitably deteriorated in recent seasons as they reach the end of their careers. There has been talk that both players could retire or follow former defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau to Tennessee, but it is unlikely that their departure would have anything other than sentimental import for the Steelers.

Coaching Changes

Speaking of LeBeau, who served as the team’s defensive coordinator from 1995-1996 and from 2004-2014 before stepping down from his position in January, his absence from the Steelers’ sidelines will be a strange one. LeBeau enjoyed tremendous success as the leader of Pittsburgh’s defense, and although his replacement, Keith Butler, will retain LeBeau’s familiar 3-4 scheme, the overall dynamic will certainly be different.

Butler will be tasked with getting the most out of a defense that has some young talent in unproven linebackers Ryan Shazier and Jarvis Jones, both of whom suffered significant injuries in 2014, and up-and-coming defensive end Cameron Heyward. But outside of those players, there is little to be excited about on the defensive side of the ball (assuming Worilds does not, in fact, return). We learned earlier this month that the team would target pass rushers and defensive backs in free agency and the draft, and given the talent disparity between Pittsburgh’s offense and defense, it would appear that the front office is prepared to devote most of its efforts this offseason to restocking the talent in Butler’s unit.

Contract Issues

Given the way Roethlisberger performed in 2014, there is no reason to believe he cannot continue playing at an All-Pro level for the next four or five seasons. To that end, we have heard for a few months that the team was preparing to give the face of its franchise a hefty extension, with something along the lines of a six-year, $120MM deal in play. Such an extension would likely lower Roethlisberger’s cap number for this year, thereby giving the team the financial wiggle room it needs to address the defense in free agency. Contract talks are progressing, and an agreement could come within the next several weeks.

On a less pleasant note, the Steelers could choose to part ways with Troy Polamalu, who has lost much of the dynamic playmaking ability that made him one of the most-feared safeties in the league for years. Releasing Polamalu would clear about $3.7MM in cap space, and even though the internal options to replace him are less than inspiring, the team may have no other choice but to part ways with the future Hall-of-Famer.

Cortez Allen, who was rewarded with an extension in September after a solid 2013 season, was nothing short of a disaster in 2014, and the team could choose to let him go rather than risk suffering through a similar performance in 2015. Though Allen’s release would create a minimal amount of cap room, it may be more logical for the Steelers to see if he can rebound in 2015 rather than cut a player at a position of need just one year removed from a strong campaign.

The team might also choose to extend guard David DeCastro, who has established himself as one of the better interior offensive linemen in the league over the course of the last several seasons, and Heyward, whose pass-rushing skills are still developing but who has shown great promise as an edge-setter on the defensive line. At this point, an extension is more likely for Heyward, who can become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year. With DeCastro, the Steelers can buy a little more time if they exercise his fifth-year option, which would keep him under club control for 2016.

Overall Outlook

The Steelers, traditionally known for their iconic defenses, saw a true changing of the guard in 2014. Their offense, while always solid or better under Roethlisberger’s leadership, absolutely exploded last season, propelling Pittsburgh to the AFC North crown. The defense, meanwhile, will be the Steelers’ undoing in 2015 if they cannot utilize their minimal cap room and the draft to address their needs in the secondary and in the pass rush. A team that relies so heavily on their offense is rarely a title contender, but if Butler can find some of LeBeau’s magic, and if the team can unearth a gem or two in the draft, 2015 might just yield another chance at a seventh Super Bowl title.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason Outlook: Indianapolis Colts

By | at February 24, 2015 7:49 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Vontae Davis, CB: $11,250,000
  2. Robert Mathis, OLB: $7,750,000
  3. Anthony Castonzo, T: $7,438,000
  4. Arthur Jones, DT: $7,100,000
  5. Andrew Luck, QB: $7,034,363
  6. Gosder Cherilus, T: $6,900,000
  7. Greg Toler, CB: $5,833,334
  8. D’Qwell Jackson, LB: $5,750,000
  9. Erik Walden, OLB: $4,250,000
  10. Donald Thomas, T: $3,750,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 29 overall pick
  • Acquired sixth-round pick from Seahawks in deal for Marcus Burley.
  • Acquired seventh-round pick from Cowboys in deal for Caesar Rayford.
  • Owe seventh-round pick to 49ers for Cam Johnson.

Other:

Overview

Year three of the Andrew Luck era was another successful one for the Colts, whose 11-5 record was enough to earn them a second straight AFC South crown and a third consecutive playoff berth. The Colts also scored a pair of postseason victories, including a road upset over old friend Peyton Manning and the Broncos, before bowing out at the hands of the Super Bowl-winning Patriots in the conference championship.Andrew Luck

Indianapolis has improved by one playoff round per season under Luck and head coach Chuck Pagano, going from a wild-card loss to a divisional defeat to an AFC title game exit. The next logical step is the Super Bowl. In order to get there, though, the Colts will need a highly productive offseason – one which sees general manager Ryan Grigson fortify the roster around his 25-year-old franchise quarterback.

Positions Of Need

The Colts ranked first in the NFL in passing, third in total yardage and sixth in points per game in 2014. Those numbers would indicate that their offense isn’t in need of much help. However, they were a pedestrian 17th in Football Outsiders’ offensive efficiency ratings, their rushing attack ranked 22nd in yardage, and two of their established wide receivers are without contracts. Thus, there’s clearly work to be done.

Running back is a position the Colts are sure to address in the coming months. That could simply mean re-signing free agent-to-be Ahmad Bradshaw, though the eight-year veteran has dealt with major injury issues as a Colt and appeared in just 13 of a possible 32 regular-season games. To his credit, the 28-year-old racked up impressive numbers (725 total yards and eight touchdowns) prior to breaking his fibula last November. After Bradshaw got hurt, Dan Herron emerged as Indy’s most effective back. Herron averaged a terrific 4.5 yards per rush, but it was only over 78 attempts and his career sample size of 87 carries in three years is minuscule.

If the Colts don’t believe Bradshaw or Herron is the solution to their backfield woes, they might think differently of 10-year veteran Frank Gore. Multiple sources have linked Indianapolis to the career 49er, who the Sacramento Bee’s Matt Barrow wrote in January was “curious” about joining the Luck-led Colts. More recently, Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller said last week (video link) that Gore to Indianapolis was a “shoo-in.” The bruising Gore would make sense as a stopgap, considering Colts O-coordinator Pep Hamilton is a proponent of a power running game.

The Colts also have uncertainty at receiver, where their only signed, viable options after T.Y. Hilton are Donte Moncrief and ex-CFL star Duron Carter. All three are 25 or younger, a far cry from Reggie Wayne – the Colts’ biggest free agent in terms of name recognition. The 36-year-old, who has played all 14 of his pro seasons with the Colts and caught over 1,000 passes, hasn’t yet informed the team if he plans on returning in 2015. Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star wrote last week that the Colts are “noncommittal” about Wayne, who has battled injuries and dips in production the last two years.

In the event the Colts part ways with Wayne and enable fellow free agent Hakeem Nicks to walk, they could turn to the open market to find a complement to Hilton. There are several accomplished receivers who are expected to test the market. One option is four-year Raven Torrey Smith. The 6-foot, 205-pounder has been both effective (213 receptions, 16.9 YPC, 30 TDs) and durable, having played in all 64 of Baltimore’s regular-season games during his career, and would give Luck a proven wideout to team with Hilton. It may work in the Colts’ favor that their new receivers coach, Jim Hostler, held the same position in Baltimore from 2011-13 and tutored Smith for three years. Signing Smith would take a sizable chunk out of the Colts’ $39MM-plus in cap space. Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com tweeted earlier this month that Smith rejected a five-year, $35MM offer ($19MM in guarantees) from the Ravens prior to last season.

Obviously, in order to get the most out of their backs and receivers (whomever they may be), the Colts will need a dependable offensive line. They have a strong twosome in stellar left tackle Anthony Castonzo and guard Jack Mewhort, but the rest of the group is less capable. Even though right tackle Gosder Cherilus had a miserable, injury-plagued 2014, the seven-year veteran is expected to stay in place because he’s been good in the past and cutting him would cost the Colts more than keeping him. That leaves center and guard as areas Grigson may try to upgrade.

Indy started a slew of different centers last season and, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), A.Q. Shipley was the strongest of the group. However, the restricted free agent is on the outs, Holder wrote last week. Further, according to Holder, Grigson won’t use more than a late-round pick on a center. He could go the free agency route for the Chiefs’ Rodney Hudson or the Raiders’ Stefen Wisniewski. Either would be probable upgrades over the Colts’ in-house options (Khaled Holmes and Jonotthan Harrison). Joel Corry, a cap expert and former agent, believes Hudson will end up with a deal upward of $5MM per year, according to the Kansas City Star’s Terez A. Paylor. Wisniewski is seeking money in the realm of an average starting center, ESPN’s Michael Wagaman has reported.

As for the guard position, the 49ers’ Mike Iupati heads the free agent class and, as an elite-level run blocker, would seem to be an excellent fit for a Colts team that needs to fix its ground game. The three-time Pro Bowler is going to cost a lot, without question, and landing him would likely mean moving Mewhort from left to right guard – where the soon-to-be second-year man played occasionally at Ohio State. Regardless, with Mewhort and Iupati, Indy would have a top-end guard tandem on paper.

On the other side of the ball, the Colts’ defensive line has already begun undergoing changes. The team made a newsworthy move Monday in releasing tackle Ricky Jean-Francois, who was due $5.5MM next season. In the wake of the Jean-Francois news, Holder speculated that the Colts could pursue the likes of Nick Fairley (Detroit) and Terrance Knighton (Denver) on the open market. Adding Fairley or Knighton would be auspicious for the Colts, who finished last season an unspectacular 18th in conventional run defense and 19th in Football Outsiders’ version. The Colts’ kryptonite, the Patriots, exploited that area of Indy’s defense in both teams’ matchups last season: LeGarrette Blount rushed for 148 yards in New England’s 45-7 AFC championship drubbing. Two months prior, the previously unknown Jonas Gray famously eclipsed the 200-yard mark in a 42-20 Pats victory.

Besides stopping the run, the other key function of the front seven is generating a pass rush. Despite the fact that the Colts finished 2014 with the ninth-most sacks in the league (41), Grigson still wants more rushers, Mike Chappell of RTV6 tweeted last week.

Eleven-year Colts veteran Robert Mathis paced the league in sacks two years ago (19.5) before missing all of last season, but Indy wouldn’t be wise to think his return will cure its ills. Mathis sat out 2014 because of a PED suspension and, worse, a torn Achilles. Moreover, he’s on the wrong end of the aging curve at 34. ESPN’s Mike Wells reported Monday that the Colts are “likely” to draft a rusher to complement Mathis and Jonathan Newsome, also noting that they’ll keep an eye on free agency. Wells specifically mentioned the Chiefs’ Justin Houston, who led the league in sacks last season (22), and the Giants’ Jason Pierre-Paul, on whom New York is expected to place the franchise tag.

The prime area of concern on the back end of the Colts’ defense is safety, where they’re especially fallow. They already cut one starter from last season in strong safety LaRon Landry, while the other (free safety Mike Adams) is presently unsigned. So is main reserve Sergio Brown. There does seem to be optimism about the return of Adams, whom Grigson said the team would “love” to keep. At 33, Adams had a career year in 2014 with five interceptions and earned his first career Pro Bowl trip.

Regardless of whether Adams re-signs, the position will still need attention, which Pagano acknowledged. “There’s a bunch of guys out there in free agency we could take a look at,” Pagano said, according to Holder. “There’s a bunch of guys here at the draft we’ll evaluate.” 

The premier free agent is expected to be the Patriots’ Devin McCourty. Signing him would greatly aid the Colts while simultaneously dealing a tremendous blow to rival New England. Draft-wise, former Alabama star Landon Collins is already on the Colts’ radar.

Key Free Agents

The Colts have other noteworthy free agents besides the aforementioned. One is defensive lineman Cory Redding, who isn’t a slam dunk to play anywhere next season. The 34-year-old is pondering retirement after playing a substantial role for last year’s Colts, appearing in over 70% of defensive snaps and garnering praise from Pro Football Focus for his efforts.

Indianapolis also has decisions to make on two of Redding’s fellow integral defenders, linebacker Jerrell Freeman and cornerback Darius Butler. As a restricted free agent, Freeman is almost sure to return to the Colts. Butler, however, is unrestricted and could change uniforms as early as next month. The six-year veteran has spent the last three seasons with the Colts, totaling eight interceptions. While none of those INTs came in 2014, Butler was still a solid part of Indy’s above-average pass defense.

Finally, there’s a trio of unsung hero types in offensive lineman Joe Reitz, safety Colt Anderson and linebacker Andy Studebaker. The latter two are special teams stalwarts, while the 29-year-old Reitz’s best trait has been his versatility. Last year, in fact, he started at a team-high three different O-line positions and fared well. None of Reitz, Anderson or Studebaker should cost a ton for the Colts to bring back, but they’re all useful role players. Indy would be smart to re-sign all three.

Possible Cap Casualties

There’s one painfully obvious cap casualty on the Colts: Trent Richardson. It seems inevitable that the relationship between the Colts and the disappointing running back will end this offseason.

Richardson, whom the Colts acquired from Cleveland for a first-round pick in 2013, has been a colossal bust in his two seasons with Indianapolis. The 24-year-old has played 29 regular-season games as a Colt and registered just 977 rushing yards with a paltry 3.09 per-carry average. Worsening matters is that Richardson was scratched for the Colts’ final two playoff games last month, the latter of which was a suspension for missing a team walkthrough. With all of that considered, it’s clear that the next, final step in the marriage between the two sides is a divorce. If Indy releases Richardson, it will save more than $3MM for next season (provided Richardson’s guarantees void because of his suspension). The writing is on the wall.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

The Colts are going to have to shell out major money in the near future for some of their paramount offensive players.

Atop the list is Luck, who will be paid handsomely for both his accomplishments and his status as the face of the Colts’ franchise. During his three-year career, Luck has started all 52 of the Colts’ games (playoffs included), led the team to three straight double-digit-win outputs, and thrown for 86 touchdowns and nearly 13,000 yards in the regular season.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweeted last month that Indy was working on a contract that could make Luck the league’s highest-paid player. Team owner Jim Irsay refuted Schefter’s report, saying Luck still has two years left on his deal. If he isn’t extended by later this offseason, the Colts will exercise Luck’s 2016 option to make sure he’ll at least be theirs for two more seasons. Barring something disastrous, though, Indianapolis will surely do everything in its power to keep Luck under center for a lot longer.

The Colts will have to make more immediate decisions on three of Luck’s offensive mates – Hilton, Castonzo and tight end Coby Fleener – all of whom are scheduled for free agency next year.

Hilton came into the league with Luck in 2012 and has developed into his QB’s go-to target. The 5-foot-9, 178-pounder just completed his second straight 82-catch season, one in which he set a career high in yardage (1,345) and tied his previous touchdown mark (seven). The 25-year-old could end up with a contract similar to the one the Jets gave Eric Decker last offseason. Decker was coming off his second consecutive 80-catch, 1,000-yard season as a Bronco when he signed a five-year, $36.25MM deal with New York ($15MM in guarantees). He put up 216 catches (13.7 YPC) and 32 touchdowns from 2011-13, when his age ranged from 24 to 26. Compare that to Hilton’s three-year stretch – 214 grabs (15.4 YPC) and 19 scores from ages 23 to 25 – and you have the neighborhood in which his next contract is likely to live.

Castonzo, the cornerstone of the Colts’ offensive line, has appeared in and started 60 games since joining the team as a second-round pick in 2011. The 26-year-old has been the quintessence of reliability over the last three years. He played every offensive snap for the Colts in 2012, missed only four in 2013, and led all NFL O-linemen in snaps last season (1,115). Castonzo will make $7.4MM in 2015, the fifth-year option Indy picked up last offseason. That option is the value of the highest-paid 25 players at the position, excluding the top three players. An extension should see him climb toward the lower end of the top 10, where yearly value ranges start at $8.5MM.

Finally, there’s Fleener – who was part of a superb Colts 2012 draft class that, as mentioned, also produced Luck and Hilton. Fleener finished 2014 ranked 16th among tight ends in catches (51), eighth in yardage (774) and tied for fifth in TDs (eight). His per-catch average was tops at the position among those with at least 25 receptions. He’ll make under $1.7MM next season and is sure to get a considerable raise between this offseason and next. If Fleener ends up in the top 10 tight ends in yearly contract value, that would mean a salary north of $5MM per annum.

Overall Outlook

Assuming Luck stays healthy, the least the Colts will do next season is rule their division for the third straight year. Whether they can ascend to greater heights and dethrone the Patriots in the AFC will hinge on how well Grigson handles the offseason. The GM will have plenty of money to work with, which should help the Colts repair at least some of their issues and close the gap on the Pats, but he’ll have to keep the long-term future in mind when he considers spending it. His most important order of business this offseason will be locking up Indy’s offensive linchpins for the foreseeable future.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Market For 4-3 Outside Linebackers

By | at February 24, 2015 12:03 pm

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to linebackers. Having already covered 3-4 outside linebackers in our look at edge defenders, today’s focus is on 4-3 OLBs. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

If a team surveys the free agent market this winter in search of an outside linebacker, that club would be much better off running a 3-4 scheme than a 4-3 system, given the talent available at each spot. While there are a handful of above-average 3-4 OLBs expected to be available two weeks from now, the top tier of 4-3 OLBs is led by Weatherspoon, who missed the 2014 season with a ruptured Achilles and sat out over half of the 2013 campaign as well, due to knee and foot injuries.

While he may not be the most reliable player here when it comes to health, Weatherspoon is still just 27 years old, and averaged 110 tackles per season in 2011 and 2012. And it’s not as if the other players in this group are slam dunks to play 16 games either — Durant and Briggs also missed significant chunks of the 2013 and 2014 seasons with injuries of their own.

If these players stay healthy, they should all but solid contributors for new or old teams in 2015, but taking into account concerns about health, age (Briggs), and inconsistency (Smith), I don’t expect any of them to find a big payday on the open market.

Other unrestricted options:

There are a few interesting names here, including Herzlich, who played just 304 defensive snaps for the Giants in 2014, but graded out as one of the best run defenders at the position, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Casillas was a part-time contributor down the stretch for the Super Bowl champion Patriots. Hayes has 70 career starts on his résumé. Thomas and Williams each racked up 85+ tackles, and Anderson is only a year removed from a season of 100+ tackles himself.

Still, if the players in our first tier weren’t exactly impact performers, that applies to doubly to most of the guys on this list. Some could hold their own as starters, but most will be reserves, part-timers, or special teams contributors.

As a housekeeping note, Bynes would have been eligible for restricted free agency, but the Lions have announced they won’t tender him an RFA offer. While he could still return to Detroit, Bynes appears poised to have the opportunity to test the open market.

Restricted FAs:

Lamur earned the most playing time of anyone in this group, by far, but in 900+ defensive snaps, he graded as a below-average in pass coverage, run defense, and as a pass rusher, per PFF, which ranked him 39th out of 40 players at the position overall. The Bengals may have viewed his performance more favorably, but it remains to be seen whether it was enough to earn an RFA tender.

Besides Lamur, most of the other players on this list made more of an impact on special teams than on defense, though Johnson was the one exception. In addition to recording 11 special teams tackles, Johnson was also forced into action on defense during the second half, logging 251 snaps. The Broncos won’t want him starting at linebacker, and he certainly isn’t their top priority in free agency, but he’s a solid depth piece, and I expect the team to bring him back — we’ll see if Denver values him enough to make him an RFA tender offer, or if the club tries to re-sign him for less.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

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Offseason Outlook: Carolina Panthers

By | at February 23, 2015 7:38 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Charles Johnson, DE: $20,020,000
  2. Cam Newton, QB: $14,666,000
  3. Ryan Kalil, C: $11,795,000
  4. Thomas Davis, LB: $9,900,000
  5. Jonathan Stewart, RB: $8,300,000
  6. Greg Olsen, TE: $7,800,000
  7. DeAngelo Williams, RB: $6,333,333
  8. Luke Kuechly, LB: $4,002,283
  9. Mike Tolbert, RB: $3,425,000
  10. Graham Gano, K: $3,100,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 25 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

If you need further evidence that the NFC South was the worst division in the NFL last season, it’s this: the Panthers regressed in nearly every major statistical category from 2013 to 2014 — they fell from 10th to 20th in offensive DVOA, while moving No. 3 to No. 14 in in defensive DVOA — shaved five wins off their final record, and gave Derek AndCam Newtonerson two starts at quarterback…and still won the division.

Cam Newton started 14 games — missing Week 1 with a rib injury and Week 15 after being involved in a car accident — and completed 58.5% of his passes for for 3,127 yards an 18 touchdowns; he added another 539 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. It wasn’t a spectacular season, but Newton was playing behind an offensive line that had lost Jordan Gross and Travelle Wharton, and throwing to receiving corps that had witnessed the defections of Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell, and Ted Ginn Jr.

Similarly, Carolina’s defense had been ravaged by free agency, as Mike Mitchell, Captain Munnerlyn, and Drayton Florence all left the squad before 2014. Star defensive end Greg Hardy, who had 26 sacks in the two seasons prior, missed all but one game after being placed on the commissioner’s exempt list following a domestic violence incident. Somehow, though, the Panthers managed to earn a postseason berth despite winning only seven games, and even won a playoff game, defeating the Cardinals in the wild card round before succumbing to the Seahawks in the divisional round.

The Panthers have already begun to overhaul their roster in anticipation of the new league year next month. Today we learned that the club will release longtime running back DeAngelo Williams, a move which will actually cost the team cap space (unless he’s designated as a post-June 1 cut). Williams’ release comes on the heels of Carolina cutting veteran safety Thomas DeCoud last week.

Key Free Agents

Hardy is the clear No. 1 free agent on the Panthers’roster — charges against the 26-year-old were recently dismissed, but it still remains unlikely that he’ll return to Carolina. He played last season under the franchise tag, so the cost to use that tag on him for a second consecutive season would be exorbitant. Moreover, the Panthers seem opposed to retaining Hardy due to the headache he caused last season. While not speaking about Hardy directly, Carolina general manager Dave Gettleman recently asked “Who wants the ticking time bomb?” regarding players with off-the-field concerns.

Elsewhere on the defensive line, the Panthers have two veteran tackles — Dwan Edwards and Colin Cole — eligible for free agency. Both are older free agents (Edwards is 33, Cole 34), but each played in excess of 350 snaps in 2014; Edwards, specifically, saw nearly 600 snaps. Carolina might want to get younger at the position, but a club can never have too much depth up front. Perhaps the team will look to retain at least one of Edwards or Cole on a modest, one-year deal.

Following Gross’ retirement, Byron Bell emerged as the starter at left tackle, but his production was extremely disappointing. Per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required), Bell ranked as the second-worst tackle in the league, finishing ahead of only Falcons rookie Jake Matthews. Bell wasn’t as bad as the starting right tackle during the early portion of his career, but he was still well below-average. Offensive line figures to be an area the Panthers address either in free agency or the draft, and both Bell and team source indicated today that the 26-year-old won’t be retained.

On the other hand, Carolina should look to retain reserve interior lineman Fernando Velasco, who started seven games last season, seeing action at both guard positions. The 30-year-old Velasco is probably something close to a replacement level talent at this point, but he was an above-average starter as recently as 2012. The Panthers have young players — Amini Silatolu and Trai Turner — at the guard spots, so Velasco could add valuable experience as the backup both there and at center.

27-year-old tight end Ed Dickson landed with in Carolina on a one-year deal prior to 2014 after spending his entire career with the Ravens. He played 532 snaps as the No. 2 TE to Greg Olsen, but wasn’t a standout blocker and caught only 10 passes. Dickson has expressed interest in re-signing with the Panthers on a multi-year deal (a lofty goal), but the club can probably do better.

Possible Cap Casualties

The Panthers don’t have a ton of players who could be pushed off the roster due to salary cap concerns. The only obvious candidate for release might be RB/FB Mike Tolbert, who’s scheduled to count $3.425MM against the cap next season. The 29-year-old is entering the final season of his two-year deal, and Carolina could clear $2.425MM in space by releasing him. He saw just 226 snaps in 2014, but given that the club just cut Williams, Tolbert’s role figures to grow in 2015, making his release unlikely.

Releasing veterans Jerricho Cotchery and Roman Harper could give the Panthers a combined $3MM windfall (if both were post-June 1 cuts). But both saw an extended amount of playing time last season, and performed at a capable level, so cutting them probably doesn’t make sense.

Positions Of Need

Pending any further cost-cutting maneuvers, the Panthers should have roughly $15.65MM of cap space to work with as free agency approaches. It’s not a ton of room, but Gettleman indicated last month that the club wouldn’t have to shop at the “dollar store” this offseason, meaning they probably won’t need to target the bargain-bin type of free agents they have during the past two years (although I would note that many of those low-cost signings worked out rather well).

The No. 1 area of concern on the Panthers roster — offensive line — hasn’t changed since last year. Tackle, specifically, needs to be upgraded, with Bell unlikely to return and right tackle Nate Chandler also not showing improvement. Following King Dunlap‘s re-upping with the Chargers on Sunday, there aren’t many options on the left side. If Michael Roos decides to hold off on retirement, I wonder if the Panthers would pay a premium to land the veteran. Alternatively, Carolina could try for Bryan Bulaga, the top right tackle available, with the intention of moving him back to the left side, the position he played in college. Or, Carolina could sign Bulaga, Doug Free, or another solid right tackle, and pursue a LT upgrade with the No. 25 pick in the draft.

If it solves its problem at tackle, Carolina could then shift its focus to receiver. Kelvin Benjamin was a revelation in his rookie season, but the club could use another weapon opposite him. Luckily, the free agent market for WRs is flush with options. Jeremy Maclin might be a little out the Panthers’ price range, but Torrey Smith could be a viable target. Moving a little further down the list, Michael Crabtree could be signed with the hopes of bounce-back season, or perhaps Denarius Moore tries to restart his career in Carolina.

Assuming that Hardy leaves for greener pastures, the Panthers will also need help at defensive end. In terms of pure skill, Carolina might not find anyone with the talent level that Hardy brings to the table, but there are certainly other options out there. Brandon Graham was solid for the Eagles in 2014, but if reports of him demanding $20MM in guarantees are true, he’d probably be too spendy for the Panthers. If the club continues its strategy of signing seemingly over-the-hill veterans, I could see them adding Osi Umenyiora, who wasn’t great as a stand-up pass-rusher with the Falcons but could succeed if returned to a 4-3 DE role, or taking on a chance on a 35-year-old Dwight Freeney.

Corner could be another area of concern, although Josh Norman and Bene Benwikere played very well, especially near the end of last season. The free agent CB market is barren, so that’s an area that will probably be addressed via the draft instead. With the release of Williams, the Panthers might also look to bring in another back to complement Jonathan Stewart, who often deals with injury concerns. I doubt they’d spend any significant money on the position, but they could bring in someone like Daniel Thomas or Jacquizz Rodgers as a insurance option.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The most pressing issue in Carolina at the moment is the future of Newton, who is signed through only 2015 thanks to the Panthers exercising his fifth-year option; he’ll be paid $14.67MM during the upcoming season. Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer reported over the weekend that the Panthers and Newton’s reps were set to meet at the combine in Indianapolis to begin discussing an extension, but noted that Newton prefers to let Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson ink out long-term deals first, setting the market for QB deals.

Newton probably won’t see the type of cash that Luck and Wilson will — rather, he’ll probably shoot for an AAV in the $20MM range. He’s already made it clear that he isn’t interested in a Colin Kaepernick-esque contract structure, so it sounds like he’ll be aiming for some relatively large guarantees. The Panthers could use the franchise tag on Newton in 2016 (at a hefty price), but I’d expect the two sides to agree to a deal at some point.

2013 Defensive Player of the Year Luke Kuechly is probably the best inside linebacker in the league, and among the top five or 10 defensive players in the game. The Panthers have a fifth-year option on him that will keep him under contract for the 2016 season at a reasonable rate. But Carolina can now open extension talks with their 23-year-old defensive stalwart, and Kuechly should be able to top the $10MM average salary brought in by Patrick Willis, currently the top earner among inside ILBs.

Olsen will become a free agent at season’s end, at it make sense for the club to get something done with him, as well. With major departures at wide receiver, Olsen (along with Benjamin) became Newton’s primary target, hauling 84 passes for more than 1,000 and six scores. He’ll be 30 years old next month, so he’s not young, but he should still be able to secure a three- or four-year commitment, possibly in the $7-8MM per year range.

Finally, Carolina will probably need to take a look at the contract of veteran defensive end Charles Johnson before the season. The eight-year veteran is scheduled to count $20.02MM against the cap next season, the highest such figure among 4-3 defensive ends. He’s still an excellent player (PFF’s No. 11 4-3 DE), so he’s not a candidate for release, but the Panthers probably need to ask Johnson to restructure his deal, something he’s done in each of the prior two offseasons. He only has two years left on his current pact, which doesn’t leave much room for spreading out prorated bonus money. So instead of a simple restructure, Carolina might need to extend him, tacking on a few years to his contract to make the forthcoming cap hits more palatable.

Overall Outlook

To the casual fan, the Panthers are coming off a highly-successful two-year run during which they made the playoffs in both seasons. More tuned-in observers, however, realize that Carolina was extremely lucky to play in such a subpar division last season, and that there are still numerous holes on the current roster. Newton needs to be re-signed, but Gettleman and head coach Ron Rivera can’t rest until other areas on the team — tackle, receiver, defensive end — are addressed, as well.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Market For Edge Defenders

By | at February 23, 2015 4:53 pm

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to edge defenders — 3-4 outside linebackers and 4-3 defensive ends. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

Teams in search of pass rushers this offseason will focus on this group, but that doesn’t mean every player on this list excels at getting to the quarterback. Sheard has seen his sack total decrease every season, and Reed has never gotten to the quarterback more than six times, but both guys played well against the run in 2014. Morgan, meanwhile, was Pro Football Focus’ top-rated cover man among 3-4 outside linebackers last season (subscription required), and players like Pierre-Paul and Hughes are solid in every aspect of the game.

Still, in today’s NFL, few skills are valued more highly than an ability to pressure the quarterback, which is why someone like Houston – 2014’s sack leader – figures to land one of the biggest contracts of the offseason, assuming he doesn’t just play on a one-year franchise deal. Hughes and Pierre-Paul lead off the next tier behind Houston, and Hardy certainly hasn’t the talent to lead this group in sacks next season, though it’s still not clear if he’ll face a suspension from the NFL for off-field issues.

Graham, Morgan, and McPhee are among the most interesting names on this list. Graham and Morgan are former first-rounders who never quite fit with their current teams, and who never quite lived up to expectations, but PFF’s data suggests both players have been very productive when given the opportunity. McPhee is another pass-rushing specialist who played a limited role in Baltimore, but excelled in that role, and could draw interest this winter from teams who foresee him taking on more responsibilities on defense.

Of course, teams eyeing these players will have to consider their defensive scheme. Some of these guys will be able to fit in as a 4-3 defensive end or a 3-4 outside linebacker, but most of them are more comfortable playing either one or the other. It’s also worth taking into account the fact that the top players in this group won’t necessarily reach the open market — Houston and Pierre-Paul will likely be franchised, and Hughes is a candidate for the tag as well.

Other unrestricted options:

They won’t land big contracts, but veterans like Freeney, Harrison, and Umenyiora may be the most productive players in this group for the 2015 season. A club looking for a part-time specialist could certainly do worse than landing one of those veterans.

Still, there’s upside to be found here. English likely won’t develop into a regular contributor at this point, but fellow first-round picks Clayborn and Alualu could still be above-average players in the right situation. Moats was very good in part-time duty for the Steelers last season, and Johnson racked up 39 total quarterback pressures for the Lions (though his status remains up in the air — he may be a restricted free agent). Acho, Ayers, Schofield, and Spencer are also intriguing names, for a variety of reasons.

Most of the players in this group will be situational players, or backups, but none of them should be particularly expensive, and pairing a run-first defender with a part-time pass rusher could be an effective, cost-conscious way to get solid production on the edge, without splurging on one of the market’s top free agents.

Restricted FAs:

Shelby played 420 defensive snaps for the Dolphins, and was an effective run stopper for the team, so he looks like the best bet to receive a qualifying offer, out of these three players. If the Chiefs and Seahawks decide to re-sign Moses and Scruggs, respectively, it will likely be for a salary less than the minimum RFA tender.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

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Offseason Outlook: Jacksonville Jaguars

By | at February 22, 2015 3:29 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Paul Posluszny, LB: $9,500,000
  2. Marcedes Lewis, TE: $8,200,000
  3. Justin Blackmon, WR: $5,785,625
  4. Luke Joeckel, T: $5,782,254
  5. Zane Beadles, G: $5,000,000
  6. Sen’Derrick Marks, DT: $4,825,000
  7. Chris Clemons, DE: $4,750,000
  8. Blake Bortles, QB: $4,694,273
  9. Red Bryant, DE: $4,500,000
  10. Josh Scobee, K: $4,387,500

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 3 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

Ever since winning 11 games and earning a postseason berth in 2007, the Jaguars have been among the worst teams in the NFL, finishing with non-losing record just once (2010) and registering a 34-78 mark during that span. But there are reasons for optimism in Jacksonville, especially on the defensive side of the ball, where head coach Gus BradleyCecil Shorts and coordinator Bob Babich led a unit that finished 20th in DVOA (16th in weighted DVOA), and featured contributions from unheralded players like Sen’Derrick Marks and rookies such as Telvin Smith.

Most of the focus, however, was on the Jaguars’ offense, where rookie quarterback Blake Bortles led a cavalcade of other first-year players including receivers Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, and Marquise Lee. Bortles, the third overall pick in last year’s draft, was mostly disappointing, completing just 59.8% of his passes for 2,908 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions while rating as the worst QB in the league according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). But there’s hope that with another year of development from both Bortles and the receivers, improvements along the offensive line, and another good year from running back Denard Robinson, the offense (and the club as a whole) can take a step forward in 2015.

Key Free Agents

As a rebuilding team, the Jaguars have one the least-talented rosters in the NFL, and as such, there aren’t a ton of pending free agents who are considered must re-signs. The most notable name among the FA list is receiver Cecil Shorts, a four-year veteran who’s been among the most visible Jacksonville players in recent years. The 27-year-old is a solid possession receiver, but he had a down year in 2014, catching only 53 balls in 12 starts. He’s already been linked to other WR-needy teams such as the Browns, and given the Jaguars’ stable of young pass-catchers, I’d expect them to let Shorts walk.

On defense, former first-round pick Tyson Alualu is also headed for unrestricted free agency. He’s been something of a bust so far in his career; he only saw about 470 snaps last season and wasn’t effective when playing. The Jags have a nice rotation along the defensive line, and even if they want to add more players to their front five, they can look to free agency to do so. Alualu isn’t an integral part of the defense, so it doesn’t make sense to retain him.

Jacksonville also has a pair of linebackers — Geno Hayes and J.T. Thomas — eligible for the open market. The 27-year-old Hayes started 11 games last year, posting a +5.9 PFF grade on nearly 600 snaps. He should be re-signed on a short, low-cost deal. Thomas, on the other hand, shouldn’t return. On more than 700 snaps, the 2011 draftee registered a -14.8 PFF mark, performing especially poorly against the run.

One final free agent of note on defense is cornerback Alan Ball, who played in only seven games after tearing his biceps. He’ll be 30 years old when the season begins, but he’s a solid player, and if the club can bring him back on a modest contract, he could act as veteran insurance in a secondary filled with youngsters.

Possible Cap Casualties

Defensive lineman Chris Clemons was a high-profile signing for the Jaguars just last offeason, agreeing to a four-year deal worth $17.5MM. But despite his knowledge of Bradley’s scheme, he struggled immensely in 2014, grading as the second-worst 4-3 DE in the league per PFF. Jacksonville could save $4.75MM by releasing the 33-year-old, and wouldn’t accrue any dead money by doing so. The club might wait to see how their defensive line looks after free agency and the draft, and if they’ve made significant improvements, Clemons could be a goner.

Another veteran on defense, linebacker Paul Posluszny, missed most of the season with a pectoral injury. He’s due $9.5MM against the cap next yer, and the Jaguars could clear all but $2MM of that by cutting him. The 30-year-old is viewed as a team leader, however, and Bradley has indicated that “Poz” will return. Still, it doesn’t seem reasonable to pay an aging LB a base salary in excess of $7MM, especially one coming off an injury. Perhaps Jacksonville will ask Posluszny to take a pay cut, but if he declines, he could be cut.

On offense, tight end Marcedes Lewis is scheduled to have the second-highest cap hit on the team (behind Posluszny) at $8.2MM, an extremely high figure for a soon-to-be 31-year-old who caught just 18 balls in eight games. He’s heading into the final year of his deal — the Jaguars would clear $6.8MM by cutting him, leaving just $1.4MM in dead money. Elsewhere on the offensive side of the ball, running back Toby Gerhart is most likely on the outs. He was overtaken by Robinson, and won’t justify his $3MM cap hit.

One thing to be considered: the Jaguars have the most cap space in the league, with more than $64MM to play with. They don’t need any additional space, so if they want to retain the players listed above, they can, without it being detrimental to their financial situation. So someone like Posluszny, who might have some off-the-field or locker room value, is more likely to be retained in Jacksonville than he might be in other cities.

Positions Of Need

With that $64MM worth of cap space, the Jaguars are set up to spend on a free agent class that actually lines up well with some of their needs. Topping that list is pass-rusher, where the club could use one or even two big-name free agents. Any of the top edge guys could make sense, so I think the Jags could end up targeting one higher-priced FA and one mid-tier player. They have the financial room to sign, say, Jason Pierre-Paul, while also throwing a one-year dart on Brian Orakpo. Or they could target Jerry Hughes while also adding someone like Brandon Graham. There are any number of combinations that make sense for Jacksonville, but it must improve its pass rush.

The linebacking unit could also use an upgrade, especially if Posluszny doesn’t return. The Jaguars could take a look at David Harris, a solid veteran who could be a stabilizing presence on a young roster. Rolando McClain could also be a target — he’s had off-the-field trouble and could be facing another failed drug test, but with $64MM in cap room, perhaps he’s the kind of talented yet troubled player the Jags can afford to take a risk on. Malcolm Smith could also land in Jacksonville, as he’s familiar with Bradley from the duo’s time in Seattle.

In the back end, the Jags could use another safety to pair with Jonathan Cyprien. If the club wants a veteran leader in the secondary, Antrel Rolle could be a nice addition, but if they want to go younger, they could sign Rahim Moore away from the Broncos. Dawan Landry could also make a return to Jacksonville — he played for the team from 2011-12.

On offense, Jacksonville needs to add at least one offensive lineman. 2013 No. 2 overall pick Luke Joeckel has struggled since entering the league, but the team probably has to give him at least one more season to figure things out at left tackle. But on the right side, I could see the Jags targeting Bryan Bulaga, the No. 1 free agent RT available. The Packers like to retain their own free agents, but Jacksonville has the cap space to outbid them. Additionally, if the club wants to upgrade at center, Rodney Hudson would make sense if the Jags are willing to meet his reported $7MM per year demand. Alternatively, they could bring in the Raiders’ Stefan Wisniewski, who should be a bit cheaper.

The Jaguars have a good group of young pass-catchers, but given a) that they have so much money to throw around and b) the receiver class is loaded, I could see them adding a high-priced WR. They’d surely jump at the chance to add a Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant, but neither of them are likely to actually hit free agency. But Randall Cobb could be the perfect addition for the Jags. He’s only 24, so he’ll still be in his prime as the rest of the team progresses. Cobb is reportedly seeking a $9MM AAV, a fee Jacksonville could easily afford.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The Jaguars have a fifth-year option decision to make on receiver Justin Blackmon. The 25-year-old has only played in four games since 2013, but he’s reportedly making good progress towards reinstatement. But given his off-the-field trials, there’s no way the Jaguars can justify exercising his option.

Jacksonville doesn’t have a ton of extension candidates, but they could look to tack on a few years to Lewis’ deal in the hopes of bringing down his 2015 cap hit. It’s possible that the club will just release the tight end instead, but if they don’t, restructuring his deal could save the Jags some money.

Overall Outlook

The Jaguars need to take a step toward respectability in 2015, and a successful offseason could help the team head towards that goal. Armed with a ton of cap room and the No. 3 overall pick, Jacksonville should be able to make improvements in nearly every area it deems necessary. Adding a few pass rushers, and getting some line help and perhaps another weapon for Bortles, could be the first step in the surge toward a winning record.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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PFR Originals: 2/15/15 – 2/22/15

By | at February 22, 2015 1:59 pm

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

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Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Vikings

By | at February 21, 2015 9:26 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Adrian Peterson, RB: $15,400,000
  2. Greg Jennings, WR: $11,000,000
  3. Chad Greenway, LB: $8,800,000
  4. Everson Griffen, DE: $8,200,000
  5. Phil Loadholt, T: $6,750,000
  6. Kyle Rudolph, TE: $6,550,000
  7. Matt Kalil, T: $6,290,644
  8. John Sullivan, C: $5,750,000
  9. Brian Robison, DE: $5,650,000
  10. Matt Cassel, QB: $4,750,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 11 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

Employing both a first-time head coach and rookie quarterback, the Vikings finished with a 7-9 record, showing respectable improvement on all fronts and looking like a club that’s set up well for the future. But most of that development went unnoticed, at least on a national level, due to the off-the-field trials of veteran running back Adrian Peterson, who was active for only one game following a child abuse incident. AP’s future in Minnesota will be a key offeseason storyline that we’ll delve into below, but the Vikings’ quietly successful 2014 deserves a quick rehashing.Adrian Peterson

No. 32 overall pick Teddy Bridgewater was unquestionably a bright spot last season — after a disappointing pre-draft process caused him to fall in the draft, the former Louisville Cardinal started 12 games (winning six), completing 64.4% of his passes for 2,919 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, performing much better than fellow first-round QBs Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel. First-year running back Jerick McKinnon was also impressive, rushing for more than 500 yards in six starts, and catching 27 passes out of the backfield. Under new coordinator Norv Turner, Minnesota’s offense finished 22nd in DVOA, but placed 16th in weighted DVOA, meaning the unit got better as the season progressed.

The Vikings’ defense was a little less impressive (finishing 23rd in wDVOA), but under Zimmer and new coordinator George Edwards, the pieces are in place. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes, defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd, and safety Harrison Smith all blossomed in ’14, while defensive end Everson Griffen showed continued success. Perhaps most impressive, rookie edge defender Anthony Barr had an excellent showing in Minnesota’s 4-3 defense, despite pre-draft concerns about scheme fit.

Adrian Peterson

The most pressing question facing the Vikings is the future of Peterson, the team’s most high-profile player and one of the more talented running backs in the league. While facing child abuse allegations, Peterson was originally deactivated and then placed on the commissioner’s list, ultimately missing 15 games. He’s currently suspended through at least April 15, though he is fighting that ban.

The Vikings, Zimmer, and GM Rick Spielman have been clear that they want Peterson back, so it appears that management is willing to deal with any sort of public relations backlash that comes with allowing Peterson to return. So the more important issue, then, becomes Peterson’s contract, which is no longer tenable. The 2012 NFL MVP will be 30 years old when the season begins, and his deal calls for him to count $15.4MM against Minnesota’s cap. His $14.38MM average annual value is more than $5MM greater than the second-highest paid running back (LeSean McCoy).

Releasing Peterson would leave the Vikings with just $2.4MM in dead money, clearing $13MM in the process. The Vikings could conceivably ask Peterson to take a pay cut, but Peterson holds all the leverage. He’s said he’s “uneasy” about returning to Minnesota, so if he prefers to find a fresh start with a different team, he could simply decline to accept a pay reduction, forcing the Vikings’ hand. At that point, Spielman & Co. would be either be forced to a) keep Peterson at his current salary b) release him, making him a free agent (which might be what he wants) or c) trade him.

The final option is perhaps the most interesting, as it’s unclear what kind of compensation the Vikings could expect to receive for Peterson. He’s unquestionably talented, but he is aging and he just spent an entire year off the football field. Any acquiring team would probably want to restructure Peterson’s contract, as well. The Cowboys have been linked to Peterson in the event that they don’t re-sign DeMarco Murray, but more teams could enter the fray.

Key Free Agents

The Vikings don’t have many impact players heading for unrestricted free agency — instead, most of the club’s pending FAs are role players who saw limited snaps in 2014. One such player is linebacker Jasper Brinkley, a 29-year-old who saw 471 snaps in 2014. He graded out well per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required), especially against the run, where he posted a +7.9 mark. Brinkley is something of a one-dimensional player, however, with rush defense being the one area in which he excels. As Matt Vensel of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune wrote on Thursday, Zimmer has indicated the team would like to find a three-down middle linebacker. It’s just my speculation, but Audie Cole could fill that role in 2015 if Vikings don’t upgrade through the draft. Either way, Brinkley probably won’t be retained.

A pair of offensive lineman — Joe Berger and Vlad Ducasse — are also eligible for free agency next month. Both saw playing time at guard during various points in the season while filling in for Charlie Johnson and Brandon Fusco, with Berger seeing more snaps than Ducasse (626 to 417). Berger was the better player per PFF, posting a +3.3 grade to Ducasse’s -14.1 mark. Fusco will presumably be back at right guard in 2015, but Berger could conceivably be re-signed to compete for playing time at left guard with Charlie Johnson, who struggled last season. Ducasse, on the other hand, shouldn’t be brought back, and the former second-round pick’s time in the NFL might be coming to an end.

In Tom Johnson and Corey Wootton, the Vikings also have a defensive line duo up for free agency. In his first season in Minnesota, the 30-year-old Johnson had a nice season, registering a +5.2 PFF grade on 444 snaps while playing behind Floyd and Linval Joseph. He’s still young enough that he could find a starting position somewhere else, but given that Zimmer likes a rotation along the defensive line, the Vikes could look to re-sign Johnson to maintain their depth at the position. Wootton, 27, struggled last year and it probably makes sense for the Vikings to move on.

Fullback Jerome Felton is also a free agent after opting out of his contract earlier this year. He’s an excellent player, but one of the primary reasons he opted out of his deal was a reduction of playing time in Turner’s offense, so he’ll presumably look for greener pastures.

Potential Cap Casualties

Peterson isn’t the only player who might not return to Minnesota if a contract restructure can’t be agreed upon. Longtime Vikings linebacker Chad Greenway, the club’s first-round selection in 2006, is now 32 years old. He missed four games with injuries, and when he did play, he wasn’t effective, grading as the league’s third-worst 4-3 outside linebacker per PFF. Set to count $8.8MM against the cap in 2015, Greenway will probably have to accept a pay cut to remain on the roster, something he’s indicated he’s willing to do (he took at $1MM pay reduction before last season).

Elsewhere on the defense, end Brian Robison is also a candidate for release. Playing opposite Griffen, the 31-year-old Robison accrued 4.5 sacks while starting all 16 games, but rated as the just the No. 52 4-3 DE among 59 qualifiers per PFF. He’s scheduled to count $5.65MM against the cap next year, and given that the Vikings could save $2.65MM by releasing him, perhaps the club will decide to turn the position over to a younger player.

On offense, veteran receiver Greg Jennings could be on the chopping block, or at the very least, be asked to take a pay cut. The 31-year-old has largely been a disappointment since joining the Vikings, averaging just 64 receptions for 773 yards over the past two seasons. Jennings’ 2015 cap figure is the second-highest on the team, behind only Peterson, as he’s due an $8.9MM base salary and will count $11MM against the cap. Minnesota could create $5MM of cap space by cutting him.

Matt Cassel, who entered 2014 as the starting quarterback before succumbing to injuries, will count $4.75MM next season if he’s not released. It’s not an absurd number for a backup quarterback, but I’d guess the Vikings can find a better way to spend that money. Johnson could also be released, especially if the Vikes re-sign Berger and decide he can start at left guard.

Positions Of Need

For a team that finished 7-9, the Viking don’t have a lot of need areas. One position group that could be improved is offensive line, but because the main culprit, left tackle Matt Kalil, is a former top-three draft pick and will remain a starter for at least one more season, there isn’t much the Vikings can do. Left guard could use an infusion of talent, as Johnson is a below-average player. Minnesota could take a look at Clint Boling, whom Zimmer knows from their time in Cincinnati, or Orlando Franklin, who would cost quite a bit more. If the Lions let Rob Sims, a solid player, get away, the Vikes could make a play for him, as well.

Linebacker could be another area that could be attacked in free agency. I don’t think Greenway will be back, and even if he is, his role could be greatly reduced, so Minnesota could look to upgrade at outside linebacker. Fortunately, 4-3 OLBs aren’t too costly, so the Vikings shouldn’t have to expend too much of their $18.07MM worth of cap space. Malcolm Smith could be looking for a bigger role after acting as the fourth linebacker for the Seahawks, and if he doesn’t follow Dan Quinn to Atlanta, he could be a fit for Minnesota. Sean Weatherspoon is injury-prone and missed the entire 2014 season, but he could be a nice rebound candidate.

If the Vikings see Captain Munnerlyn as primarily a slot corner, the club could look to add another CB to pair with Rhodes, as Ben Goessling of ESPN.com suggested last month. Terence Newman thrived under Zimmer in Cincinnati, but the former is now 37 years old and can’t be counted on as a reliable starter. If the Vikings are willing to pay the price, someone like Brandon Flowers could be a nice addition — he’d give Minnesota one of the best corner groups in the league. But more likely, the Vikes will set their sights lower and target the Buster Skrines of the world.

Finally, the Vikings could opt to add talent at wide receiver, where Jennings is a release candidate and Cordarrelle Patterson continues to be disappointing. Charles Johnson looks the club’s No. 1 pass-catcher, so it wouldn’t be out of the question for Minnesota to bring in another WR. I could see them trying to buy low on someone like Michael Crabtree, or perhaps bring in someone like Leonard Hankerson, who might be able to thrive in a larger role.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

Besides Peterson, Kalil might be the biggest question mark on the Vikings’ roster. The third overall pick in 2012, Kalil was great during his rookie season, grading as PFF’s No. 21 tackle among 81 qualifiers. But he fell to No. 51 in ’13, and dropped all the way to No. 81 last season. Minnesota must decide on Kalil’s fifth-year option in the coming months, and I don’t see how they can exercise it given Kalil’s current level of play.

On the other hand, Harrison Smith, the team’s other 2012 first-round pick, will definitely see his fifth-year option picked up, as he’s among the league’s best at his position. He’s also in line for a contract extension. Smith just turned 26, and he could be looking at a deal similar to that of Eric Weddle, with near $20MM guaranteed.

Overall Outlook

The Vikings are a team on the upswing, and even if Peterson doesn’t return, continued progression by Bridgewater and the defense could push the club above .500. If Peterson does come back to the Twin Cities, and performs at something close to his prior level, the playoffs aren’t out of the question. Of course, the Vikes play in a tough division, as both the Packers and the Lions both earned postseason berths in 2014. But with what looks like a franchise QB in place, the Vikings are surely a team to watch.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason Outlook: Tennessee Titans

By | at February 20, 2015 8:40 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Jason McCourty, CB: $8,600,000
  2. Andy Levitre, G: $8,600,000
  3. Michael Griffin, S: $8,100,000
  4. Jurrell Casey, DL: $6,720,000
  5. Delanie Walker, TE: $5,275,000
  6. Sammie Lee Hill, DT: $4,660,418
  7. Craig Stevens, TE: $4,500,000
  8. Kamerion Wimbley, DE: $4,493,750
  9. Shonn Greene, RB: $4,183,334
  10. Bernard Pollard, S: $3,625,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • Hired 2014 Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau as assistant head coach.

Draft:

  • No. 2 overall pick
  • Acquired sixth-round pick from Patriots in deal for Akeem Ayers.
  • Acquired seventh-round pick from Cowboys in deal for Lavar Edwards.
  • Owe seventh-round pick to Patriots for Akeem Ayers.

Other:

Overview

No one expected much out of the Titans in 2014, but their 2-14 mark was a disappointment to fans who were hoping to see something out of this team. In the preseason, newly-hired head coach Ken Whisenhunt set the bar fairly high when he said that he wouldn’t need to exercise patience with his squad. In September, he realized that he had overestimated what he had on his roster.

“You know, I guess that’s the problem saying those kind of things,” Whisenhunt said when asked by Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean about his previous expectations. “You go on a stretch where you have a couple games and you don’t play well, and those are the kind of things that, hey, I still believe that, I still believe we have a team that’s good enough, that’s better than what we are playing right now. But we have to look at what we are doing, how we are doing it. We have to look at everything. Maybe.”

Once again, the Titans are not expected to be world-beaters, but they need to show something.

Key Free AgentsDerrick Morgan

Seemingly half of the Titans’ roster is eligible for free agency but only a few can really be considered to be pivotal. Outside linebacker Derrick Morgan is one of them and probably stands as the highest priority. Late last month, our own Luke Adams named Morgan as one of the club’s likeliest candidates for the franchise tag, though he felt that it was unlikely to be used at all. Recently, GM Ruston Webster said that he doesn’t think the tag will be “in play” for anyone. Morgan has been told that the Titans want to retain him, but it remains to be seen how far they’d be willing to go for him. The former No. 16 overall pick has posted just 23.5 sacks in his five seasons as a pro. This past season, however, Morgan ranked as the eighth-best 3-4 outside linebacker according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required and recommended).

Longtime Titans tackle Michael Roos might not be back with the Titans in 2015 and he might not play at all. Roos appeared in just five games in 2014 after being placed on IR. The Titans are the only organization he has known since his debut in 2005, but Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com reported in December that Roos probably wouldn’t return to the club since he has been squeezed out at left tackle in favor of Taylor Lewan. Roos indicated that he was leaning towards retirement before the New Year but there have also been rumblings that he would be okay with a shift to right tackle, where he spent some time in his first two seasons. Any way you slice it, it sounds like the odds are against Roos coming back to Tennessee in 2015.

Speaking of long-tenured members of the Titans, Nate Washington completed the sixth and final year of the deal he signed with the club in 2009. As you may recall, Washington’s tenure with the team almost ended a few months early when the Titans were aggressively shopping their veterans around the trade deadline. Washington stayed put, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him ring in his 32nd birthday (in August) with another club. On the other hand, the Titans have a young core of receivers and whether it’s Zach Mettenberger or someone else, the quarterback position will be filled by a youngster. It might not hurt to have someone with experience there to help guide the offense. The veteran had 40 receptions for 647 receiving yards and two touchdowns in 2014.

Quarterback Jake Locker is among the biggest names on that free agent list, but the Titans are not interested in bringing him back.

Possible Cap Casualties

Michael Griffin has the third-highest cap hit of anyone on the team at $8.1MM. Simply put, the safety is paid like a top performer at his position but he is years removed from that mantle. The advanced metrics, unsurprisingly, tell a similar story. Pro Football Focus gave him an overall grade of -15.7 in 2014, placing him 83rd out of 87 qualified safeties. His play put him in the same category of Kenny Vaccaro, who had a remarkably disappointing year for New Orleans, and Ryan Clark, who has decided to move on from football. If the Titans drop Griffin, they’ll save $4.5MM against the cap. Griffin told reporters in December that if the Titans came to him and said they wanted him back for less money, it would come down to a family decision and what is best for them. That’s a call he might never get to make, however.

Running back Shonn Greene is likely a goner this season as the Titans can save $3.35MM but cutting him loose. Greene carried the ball 94 times in 2014 for 392 yards and two touchdowns and saw his role move all over the map throughout the season. The jury is still out on whether rising sophomore Bishop Sankey can make an impact in the NFL, but the Titans pretty much know what they’ll get out of Greene, and it ain’t worth what they’re slated to pay him.

Safety Bernard Pollard asked for his release from the Titans in late January and he could have that wish granted. Keeping Pollard would mean paying him a $3.1MM base salary but cutting him would only leave the Titans with just $425K in dead money. Pollard played in just five games last season before landing on injured reserve with an Achilles injury, but he was a solid player as recently as 2013, when he racked up 77 tackles while starting all 16 games, and rated as the league’s No. 21 safety among 86 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Guard Andy Levitre could be a candidate for release, but it’s more likely that they’ll try and re-work his deal rather than carry $6MM+ in dead money. Ditto for teammates Jason McCourty and Craig Stevens. The Titans already saved themselves a pretty penny when they cut ties with Michael Oher in February.

Positions Of Need

The Titans’ biggest need of all is probably at the quarterback position. While they “like” Mettenberger, they’re not willing to name him as their starter for 2015 by any means. The free agent quarterback class, as you’ve probably heard once or twice before, leaves a lot to be desired. That’s why at the No. 2 overall pick, the Titans are widely expected to go for either Oregon star Marcus Mariota or FSU standout Jameis Winston, depending on what the Bucs do at No. 1. Webster has been telling the world that they’ll consider other needs at No. 2, but his club is still expected by many to take a QB. If the Titans aren’t high enough on whichever quarterback the Bucs pass on, they might pursue a trade with the Bears for Jay Cutler.

On defense, the Titans need to generate more pressure on the quarterback to make their 3-4 scheme effective. Brian Orakpo, Washington’s highest paid player in 2014, might not get the kind of money he wants in D.C., leading him to the open market. Despite his injury-riddled 2014, Orakpo stands as one of the league’s most terrifying linebackers when healthy. Alternatively, if the Titans stick with the selfie-loving Mettenberger, they could find an edge rusher with the No. 2 pick in Nebraska’s Randy Gregory. Some are concerned about Gregory’s size but a steady regimen of deadlifts and red meat could take care of that.

The Titans could use a worthwhile partner for McCourty and luckily for them, there are plenty of quality options available on the open market. The Titans might not go for top-shelf guys like Byron Maxwell or Darrelle Revis (if available), but the next tier of corners features multiple guys who could be had for cheaper, shorter-term deals. Antonio Cromartie is a veteran who would fit the bill, though he might lean towards a reunion with the Jets or a chance to join a contender instead.

Tennessee could look into adding a solid wide receiver, though it won’t be a higher priority than those listed above. A solid effort from Kendall Wright plus the long-awaited blossoming of Justin Hunter could give the Titans enough firepower to move the chains. Retaining the aforementioned Washington could also be a smart move.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

Wright is entering the fourth and final year of his rookie contract and the Titans could look to lock up the former first-round pick early. They’ll have him at a relative bargain this season with a cap number of $2.6MM and even though his next deal will cost a bit more, the team could get another solid value by addressing it sooner rather than later.

Cutting Levitre remains unlikely, but that doesn’t mean that Webster can’t put on his best poker face and try to talk his camp into a modest pay cut. Levitre’s massive contract, signed in 2013, is scheduled to take him through the 2018 season. With a $6.5MM base for the next three seasons and a $5.8MM base in ’18, the Titans might be able to shave off a million or two for the coming year. The guard graded out as being well below average in 2014 with a -5.8 overall rating, per Pro Football Focus.

The Titans could push McCourty to take a small pay cut also and it’s not likely that he’ll want to give up his cushy deal and jump into an especially strong cornerback market. Stevens has a $4.5MM cap hit and the team should be able to talk him into a more aggressive cut.

Overall Outlook

This is an extremely pivotal offseason in Tennessee. While they’re armed with a boatload of cap room, the biggest decision the Titans make will come on April 30th when it’s time to hand their first selection over to commissioner Roger Goodell.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

0 comments Offseason Outlook PFR Originals Tennessee Titans

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Bears

By | at February 19, 2015 8:00 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Jay Cutler, QB: $16,500,000
  2. Jared Allen, DE: $12,500,000
  3. Brandon Marshall, WR: $9,575,000
  4. Matt Forte, RB: $9,200,000
  5. Jermon Bushrod, T: $8,050,000
  6. Lamarr Houston, DE: $6,990,000
  7. Martellus Bennett, TE: $6,125,000
  8. Tim Jennings, CB: $5,250,000
  9. Robbie Gould, K: $3,600,000
  10. Matt Slauson, G: $3,267,500

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 7 overall pick
  • Owe fifth-round pick to Broncos in deal for Brock Vereen.

Other:

Overview

After firing head coach Lovie Smith and replacing him with Marc Trestman heading into the 2013 season, the Bears actually regressed record-wise, falling from 10 wins in 2012 to eight in 2013. But win-loss record aside, things were looking up in Chicago, as Trestman seemingly molded an offense that played to the strengths of quarterback JayJay Cutler Cutler and his primary receivers, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. The Bears finished second in scoring and eighth in yards, good for a No. 6 rating in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.

But with a postseason berth looming as realistic goal for the 2014 season, the offense cratered amid reports of discord in the locker room, as Cutler threw a league-leading 18 interceptions and was thrown under the bus by offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer. The entire unit struggled, falling to 23rd in scoring, 21st in yards, and 14th in DVOA. The defense, which general manager Phil Emery augmented with free agent additions like Lamarr Houston and Jared Allen, was also lackluster, finishing 31st in points allowed and 30th in yards allowed (but surprisingly 14th in DVOA). Entering the year with high expectations, Chicago ultimately limped to a 5-11 record, good for last in the NFC South.

Coaching/Front Office Changes

From the outset, Trestman was an unconventional hire — he’d been out the NFL for nearly a decade when he was given the Bears HC job, and had been coaching in the CFL for the prior five seasons. Insiders worried at the time of the hire that Trestman might lack the skills required to command an NFL locker room, and while confirmation bias could definitely be at playe here, it’s fair to wonder if Trestman’s personality played a role in the team’s downfall. Issues such as these are tough to judge from an outsider’s perspective, and regardless, it’s safe to say Chicago’s on-the-field performance was sufficiently poor enough to warrant Trestman’s dismissal.

It’s a little easier to judge the performance of Emery, as many of the moves he made to supplement a decent Bears core simply didn’t work out, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Signed to a five-year, $35MM contract, Houston was mostly ineffective before tearing his ACL in October after celebrating a sack while Chicago was losing by 25 points. Allen, meanwhile, was handed $32MM over four years, and while he was more of a contributor than Houston, $32MM (including $15.5MM guaranteed) is a lot of money for a player who turns 33 in April. But the move that probably sealed Emery’s fate was the seven-year extension handed to Cutler, which we’ll delve into below.

Following the firing of Trestman and Emery in late December, the Bears settled on former Saints executive Ryan Pace as their new GM after a search that saw Chicago meet with Chris Ballard of the Chiefs, Brian Gaine of the Dolphins, and Lake Dawson of the Titans. At 37, Pace becomes the youngest general manager in the league. It’s fair to wonder if Pace will employ the same sort of contract structures in Chicago that often led the Saints to having little or no cap space, but given that Pace’s title was player personnel director, he probably doesn’t deserve blame for New Orleans’ cap woes.

Aside from the Broncos, the Bears interviewed the fewest candidates of any club searching for a new head coach. Chicago was one of only two teams who were replacing its general manager in addition to its HC, so it’s possible they wanted to have Pace in place before getting too deep into its coaching hunt. But it’s also conceivable the Bears simply got lucky, as just four days after Denver parted ways with John Fox, Chicago scooped him up, signing the 60-year-old to a four-year contract. Fox, entering his 14th season as an NFL head coach, will bring Adam Gase with him from Denver to head up the offense, while adding former 49ers DC Vic Fangio to lead the defense (and shift to a 3-4 scheme).

Quarterback Situation

“What do we do about Jay?” is the key question surely on the mind of Pace, Fox, and every fan in the Windy City. After Cutler was benched for the penultimate game of the 2014 season, many figured his tenure in Chicago was all but over; he eventually started the season finale after backup Jimmy Clausen suffered a concussion, but after a season in which the 31-year-old Cutler rated as the league’s No. 32 QB per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), it was assumed that the club was ready to move on.

But it’s possible (and even likely) that Cutler’s seven-year, $126.7MM extension that runs through 2020 won’t allow the Bears to throw in the towel just yet. Cutler’s deal contains a fully guaranteed $38MM, which includes his 2015 salary of $15.5MM. That figure, along with the prorated portions of his signing bonus, would leave Chicago with $19.5MM in dead money if it chose to release its quarterback — keeping Cutler on the roster, however, would cost just $16.5MM. Designating Cutler as a post-June 1 cut would leave his 2015 cap hit at $16.5MM, so the Bears would again realize no cap relief.

Realistically, Chicago can’t release Cutler this year, as the cap hit would simply be too high for a player not on the roster. The only alternative, then, would be to trade Cutler, which would reduce his 2015 dead money to just $4MM, saving the Bears $12.5MM in ’15 cap space. Cutler would presumably be in high demand given the paucity of available QBs, as the Buccaneers, Browns, Titans, Bills, and Jets are among the clubs that could have interest (and the cap space required) to acquire the veteran signal-caller.

The central argument against trading Cutler is simply the scarcity of competent starting quarterbacks. The free agent QB market doesn’t offer many inspiring options, as the likes of Mark Sanchez, Brian Hoyer, and Josh McCown (who the Bears met with yesterday) aren’t improvements over Cutler. Similarly, the draft lacks quarterback depth, and as holders of the seventh overall pick, the Bears probably won’t get a shot at Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota without trading up. So without a viable alternative, Chicago’s best course of action might be to ride out 2015 with Cutler, hope for the best, and re-evaluate the situation next offseason.

While Cutler’s future is mostly conjecture for now, neither Pace nor Fox sound too enthused about committing to Cutler for the foreseeable future. Speaking at the combine yesterday, Pace refused to call Cutler the Bears’ starting QB, and said the club would take its time with its evaluations. Fox, meanwhile, was also non-committal, telling reporters, “We’re not up against a deadline…We’ll keep you posted.” The head coach later added: “I don’t think there’s any question there’s ability and talent there but there’s a lot more that goes into it.”

Key Free Agents

While Cutler figures to be the main offseason storyline in Chicago, the Bears do have several players who will hit the open market next month unless new contracts are worked out. From a sentimental standpoint, the most important pending free agents are longtime Bears Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman. Briggs, 34, played in only eight games last season but was the Bears’ third-best defender per PFF, while Tillman, who turns 34 on Monday, appeared in just two games before injuring his triceps. Neither should be priorities as Chicago looks to remake its defense, and I wouldn’t expect either to return in 2015, although Briggs would make more sense, if only on a one-year deal.

The Bears’ most important FA will be defensive tackle Stephen Paea, who if re-signed, would probably need to shift to defensive end in Fangio’s 3-4 look — at 6’1″ and 300 pounds, he has the size to do so. The 26-year-old graded as the No. 11 DT in the league according to PFF, although his sub-par run grade is a bit concerning, given that 3-4 ends’ primary responsibility is to defend the run. The interior defensive line market is flush with options, so Paea could face some competition, but he could command a salary of around $5MM. At that price, Chicago might instead opt to consider players who have more experience in the 3-4.

Safety Chris Conte, who like Tillman has a birthday on Monday (but is eight years younger) is also a free agent. He offers youth (he’s entering his age-26 season) and experience (more than 600 snaps in each of his first three seasons), but he’s dealt with shoulder injuries throughout his career and has produced at merely an average level. In 2014, Conte graded as the No. 63 safety among 87 qualifiers per PFF. He’d been better than that in the two seasons prior, but he’s always been in the middle of the pack relative to his peers. He could make sense as a reserve (especially given the weak safety market), but the Bears should look to upgrade.

Only four more Bears free agents saw more than 200 snaps in 2014. Linebacker D.J. Williams, receiver Josh Morgan, and tight end Dante Rosario were all ineffective last year, and Chicago will probably move on from that trio. But offensive lineman Brian De La Puente had a very successful season in ’14 during which he saw 501 snaps, mostly while filling in at center for Roberto Garza during the early portion of the year. De La Puente is only 28 years old and had to surprisingly accept a one-year deal for the minimum salary benefit last offseason. The Bears extended Garza through 2015, so it’s possible that De La Puente will look for a starting job elsewhere. Otherwise, he’d offer valuable depth along Chicago’s offensive line.

Possible Cap Casualties

With more than $26MM of cap space to work with, the Bears don’t have to make any drastic moves to create more financial flexibility. Chicago’s only pressing issue will be deciding the fate of receiver Brandon Marshall, who is due a 2015 base salary of $7.5MM and scheduled to count $9.575MM against the cap. Releasing him now would give the Bears $3.95MM worth of cap space, while designating him as a post-June 1 cut would create $7.7MM in savings. The 30-year-old Marshall was among the NFL’s best receivers as recently as 2013, but last season saw him catch just 61 passes for 721 yards, and he missed the final three games with broken ribs.

Marshall’s 2015 salary becomes guaranteed on the third day of the 2015 league year, so the Bears need to make a decision on his future before then. The club could conceivably ask him to take a pay cut, but I’d guess that Marshall would prefer to hit the open market rather than accept a salary decrease. If Chicago doesn’t want to retain Marshall, it could opt to explore a trade, which would create the same amount of cap space as a release.

The only other conceivable cut would be guard Matt Slauson, who played well in 2013, but struggled in 2014 before tearing his pectoral in October. He’ll only count about $3.3MM in 2015, however, so I’m guessing the Bears will retain him and hope for a bounce-back season.

Positions Of Need

Nearly every position on the Bears’ defense could use a talent infusion, and given that Fangio will install a new scheme, adding new players is doubly important. The defensive line will need to be revamped, and even if Paea is re-signed, Chicago will need to find nose tackle to anchor the middle of the line. Fox knows Terrance Knighton from their days in Denver, but as the top NT available, Pot Roast will garner a hefty sum. Cheaper options include Dan Williams and B.J. Raji, each of whom is on the right side of 30 and has experience in the 3-4. Raji, in particular, will probably command only a modest salary on a one-year deal after missing the entire 2014 season.

Linebacker could also afford an upgrade, starting with the inside. If the Bears are looking for an early-down run stuffer, there are several options available, including Rey Maualuga, Brandon Spikes, and again playing to the Fox/Broncos connection, Nate Irving. David Harris is also a free agent, but most expect him to stay with the Jets or follow Rex Ryan to the Bills. The edge rushing market is more robust, as while top FA Justin Houston is unlikely to hit free agency, players like Jerry Hughes, Brian Orakpo, and Pernell McPhee are. Someone like Orakpo or Jabaal Sheard could be an interesting add on a short-term deal, as could Akeem Ayers if he doesn’t re-up with the Patriots. Additionally, if the 49ers cut any of Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, or Ahmad Brooks, I’d expect Fangio to push for the Bears to sign them.

Pickings are slim at safety, but the Bears desperately need someone to play alongside Ryan Mundy. Like most of the league, Chicago would love to bring in Devin McCourty, but he’s expected to see the franchise tag in New England. Former Bronco Rahim Moore would make sense, while veteran Antrel Rolle would be a stabilizing presence in the back end. Da’Norris Searcy is said to be looking for larger role than the Bills have given him, and he’d be a smart sign for the Bears, as would Mike Adams or Dawan Landry, each of whom rated among PFF’s top-10 safeties. If the Buccaneers are still trying to trade Dashon Goldson, he could be an option for Chicago given his history with Fangio.

At corner, the Bears are set with Kyle Fuller at one spot and veteran Tim Jennings in the slot, but they could use one more pass defender to play opposite Fuller. Adding veteran Tramon Williams on a short-term pact could be worthwhile, while fellow Packer Davon House could offer some untapped upside and youth (he’s entering his age-25 season). Both Perrish Cox and Chris Culliver have familiarity with Fangio’s scheme, and given the relative lack of draftable corner options, I’d expect the Bears to add at least one CB in free agency.

Needs on the offense aren’t as numerous, but small upgrades could be made here and there. Right tackle Jordan Mills struggled in 2014, but given that he’ll be entering only his third season in the NFL, I’d wager the Bears will give him another opportunity at starting. But depth along the line could be augmented, as rookie Michael Ola was unspectacular in filling in at numerous positions. Reserve options could be added at quarterback, running back, and receiver, but I’d expect the Bears to target these positions in the draft, where the OL and WR positions in particular are said to be deep.

Extension Candidate/Contract Decisions

As a 2012 draft pick, Jeffery is now eligible for an extension; because he wasn’t drafted in the first round, however, Jeffery isn’t attached to a fifth-year option, so his contract ends after 2015. The Bears could use the franchise tag on him, but a long-term deal could be best for both sides, especially if the club moves on from Marshall. Having average 87 receptions, 1,277 yards, and eight touchdowns over the past two years, the 25-year-old Jeffery should be in for a large raise. Any extensions inked by Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant in the coming months should set a ceiling for Jeffery, but he could probably command close to $12MM annually.

Running back Matt Forte is also entering the final year of his contract which has paid him an AAV of $7.6MM. Forte has been both productive and remarkably consistent during his NFL career, and is among the best pass-catching backs in the league. But he’ll be 30 years old entering next offseason, and there could be some concern about the tread on his tires. Still, given that he’s scheduled to count $8.2MM against the cap in ’15, the Bears could offer him a short-term extension in the hopes of creating some immediate financial wiggle room.

The Bears do have a fifth-year option on Shea McClellin, but there’s almost no chance it gets exercised. McClellin has struggled to find a position on defense in his three years in the league, and hasn’t been effective in any role.

Overall Outlook

The Bears have a lot of work to do this offseason, and with a new GM, head coach, and coordinators in place, this club could look a lot different (particularly on defense) come the regular season. But until the club definitively decides what to do with Cutler, little else will make headlines in Chicago. If they do trade Cutler, the Bears could be looking at a full-scale rebuild until they find a new starting quarterback. If they keep Cutler around, they’ll need to add several pieces to their defense and hope that an infusion of talent will lead to better results. Either way, it could be a tough road to relevancy in an NFC North that features two playoff teams in the Packers and Lions, as well as the Vikings, who look to be on the rise themselves.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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