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Poll: Will Blount Be With Pats In 2015?

November 20th, 2014 at 5:53pm CST by Zachary Links

While running back Ben Tate had little trouble finding a home, no team in the NFL was willing to add LeGarrette Blount to their roster at his sticker price when he was let go by the Steelers. The talented but troubled tailback signed a two-year, $3.85MM deal with the Steelers in March but his time as Le’Veon Bell‘s understudy came to an end after he left the field before the end of Sunday’s game against the Titans. There were several teams with a need for an RB like Blount but it’s safe to say that teams were scared off by his troubled history.

A quick refresher of Blount’s resume, for those that don’t remember. While at Oregon in 2009, Blount punched a Boise State player in a face following a 19-8 loss, putting him on the national map for all the wrong reasons. In 2010, he signed with the Titans as an undrafted free agent, but found himself in a training camp skirmish with a teammate. In August of this year, Blount and Bell were arrested for marijuana possession while in a car together. The early walk-off was apparently the final straw for the Steelers, but the timing of the move leads one to believe that they have been fed up with Blount for some time. Of course, somewhere in the middle of all of that, Blount looked the part of a superstar in Tampa Bay for some time and proved to be a very effective power back for the Patriots during his first New England stint in 2013.

Now, Blount has circled back to the Pats and even though his two-year deal probably doesn’t carry much in the way of guaranteed dollars for 2015, the Pats are probably looking at him as more than a patch-in addition. Blount joins a crowded backfield that features Brandon Bolden, James White, new breakout Jonas Gray, and Shane Vereen with Stevan Ridley on injured reserve. However, with Ridley, Vereen, and Bolden are all set to hit the open market this offseason, there could certainly be room for Blount in New England’s future plans.

The Patriots are obviously familiar with Blount’s problems but the fact that they have a history with him and were willing to sign him anyway says a lot about their experience with him. Do you expect the former Oregon star to remain with the Patriots next season?

Will Blount Be On The Pats' Roster To Start The 2015 Season?
Yes 54.98% (171 votes)
No 45.02% (140 votes)
Total Votes: 311

2015 NFL Free Agents

November 17th, 2014 at 4:30pm CST by Luke Adams

Pro Football Rumors’ up-to-date list of 2015 NFL free agents is below. These are players who are eligible for restricted or unrestricted free agency after the 2014 season. The player’s 2015 age is in parentheses. Players are sorted by the position at which they played most in ’14, or the position at which their most recent team listed them.

Players who finished the 2014 season on an NFL roster but don’t have a contract for 2014 are listed below, along with a few other notable free agents who didn’t finish the 2014 season on an NFL roster. Players eligible for restricted free agency are marked with (R), while exclusive rights free agents are not included. Franchise and transition players are marked with (F) and (T) respectively. All other free agents are assumed to be unrestricted.

If you have any corrections or omissions, please contact us. For instant free agent updates, be sure to follow us on Twitter @pfrumors.

Updated 9-4-15 (4:00pm CT)

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PFR Originals: 11/9/14 – 11/16/14

November 16th, 2014 at 2:32pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • I profiled Patriots safety Devin McCourty in the latest entry in our Extension Candidate series, and examined what a potential long-term deal between New England and the Rutgers product would look like.
  • The AFC North is the tightest division in the NFL, and any one of the Bengals, Browns, Ravens, and Steelers could be viewed as a viable favorite to finish in first place. Luke Adams asked which club was likely to take the top spot, and the voting displayed just how close the race is. Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati all received between 26% and 28% of the vote, with Baltimore garnering 20%.
  • We’ll surely see some coaching changes when the season comes to a close, and with that in mind, Rob DiRe wondered which current coordinator is poised to take on a head coaching role. Cardinals defensive coordinator Todd Bowles finished first in the poll at 27%. Thanks for voting!

Extension Candidate: Devin McCourty

November 9th, 2014 at 5:51pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Despite a reputation for mastering the draft process, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick’s record of procuring and developing defensive back talent isn’t very impressive. Over the past decade, Belichick has regrettably used first- and second-round picks on players such such as Terrence Wheatley (2008), Darius Butler (2009), and Ras-I Dowling (2Devin McCourty011), each of whom failed to live up to expectations. Not every attempt to add pieces to the New England secondary has been a disaster, as Brandon Meriweather (2007) and Patrick Chung (2009) proved somewhat useful during their tenure with the Pats. However, no Patriots defensive back draft selection of the past ten years has matched the production of 2010 first-rounder Devin McCourty, whose rookie contract expires after this season.

Since joining the Patriots four years ago, the 27-year-old McCourty has displayed impressive versatility in addition to excellent play. During his first two seasons in the league, he played strictly cornerback, and was employed primarily on the left side of the defense. The Rutgers product regressed from his rookie season to his sophomore campaign — though he graded as the league’s seventh-best CB in 2010, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), he fell to 57th in 2011. McCourty was still effective against the run in ’11, but his coverage grade lagged, which might have factored into New England’s decision to convert him to safety.

The positional transformation began in 2012, as McCourty began splitting his snaps between corner and safety. He spent more time at S (about 57% of his snaps), and PFF rated him as above-average at both positions. McCourty’s best season to-date came last year, when he finished with 58 tackles and one interception in 15 games, and ended up as the No. 1 safety in the league per PFF’s metrics. He’s started every game this season, and been a factor in both pass and run coverage, accruing 20 tackles and one pick.

Given that the Patriots added Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner via free agency during the offseason, it’s a little surprising that their pass defense isn’t among the NFL’s elite. New England ranks 19th in passing yards allowed, 11th in yards per attempt allowed, and 16th in pass defense DVOA. However, Browner didn’t play until Week 6 following a suspension, so the unit has had much time to mesh. Additionally, the Patriots pass-rush isn’t special, meaning opposing quarterbacks have a lot of time to attack New England’s secondary. Though they rank 13th in sacks, the Pats are 28th in adjusted sack rate, a figure that doesn’t figure to improve as long as Chandler Jones is sidelined with an injury.

Nevertheless, it seems to be a given that the Patriots would want to retain McCourty, who was named an All-Pro in both 2010 and 2013. Given that Revis won’t return to New England unless he negotiates a new deal (he’s signed for 2015, but with a $25MM cap charge, he’ll be cut), the Patriots probably want to keep their leader in the secondary around. News surrounding McCourty extension talks has been slim, but Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com reported in early August that two sides had exchanged initial proposals, but weren’t overly close to an agreement. At the time, La Canfora noted that talks could heat up before the season; while that obviously didn’t happen, it wouldn’t be shock to see a deal struck in-season.

McCourty is earning $3.92MM in base salary this season. Add in his prorated roster bonus, and a $50K workout bonus, and he counts $5.115MM against the cap. When discussing an extension, he and his representatives would surely look to either match or exceed the deals signed by Earl Thomas and Jairus Byrd earlier this year. Both are rangy free safeties like McCourty, as opposed to in-the-box strong safeties like Dashon Goldson, so their contracts work well as comparables. Thomas’ deal was an extension, however, while Byrd joined the Saints via free agency, so his contract might present the better option for locating a benchmark.

Thomas, who is two years younger than McCourty, received $40MM over four years, with nearly half ($19.725MM) guaranteed. McCourty has been the better player since he made the switch to full-time safety per PFF, but the advanced metrics aren’t the be-all, end-all of player evaluation. Soft factors are important, as well — McCourty doesn’t have the reputation that Thomas, regarded as the league’s best safety, does. Additionally, Thomas was coming off a season as a key component of one of the best pass defenses in NFL history as he discussed an extension with Seattle; McCourty, as noted, plays on a below-average unit.

I don’t think McCourty will be able to match Thomas’ contract; at $10MM per season, Thomas redefined the market for safeties in a way that I don’t believe McCourty can. But $9MM a per year, the same amount Byrd received, should be in reach for McCourty. And while Byrd only got 33.9% of his total deal guaranteed, McCourty would likely see more than that — I’d peg it closer to Thomas’ 49.3%, so perhaps around $17MM over a four-year contract. In total, a four-year extension worth roughly $37MM, with $17-18MM guaranteed, would make sense for both sides. The Patriots like to use in-game roster bonuses in their deals, but given that McCourty doesn’t have an injury history or character concerns, I wouldn’t expect them to be too large.

New England’s fiscal situation shouldn’t present a barrier to negotiations. The Patriots currently have $4.281MM in 2015 cap space available, but they can save about $3.3MM by releasing Danny Amendola and Michael Hoomanawanui. The club can clear an additional ~$7.567MM by parting ways with veteran defensive tackle Vince Wilfork, a move that seems likely given his lack of production this season.

If a deal can’t be worked out, the club has the option to place the franchise tag on McCourty. Safety had the third-cheapest tag figure in 2014, exceeding only tight end and kicker/punter, and that probably won’t change next season. The number itself will rise from $8.433MM, but so will the league-wide salary cap, so the figure shouldn’t present a problem. Securing a player with McCourty’s talent on a one-year deal for around $9MM would be a steal, but both the team and the player would surely like to work out a contract that enables McCourty to remain in New England for the forseeable future.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PFR Originals: 11/2/14 – 11/9/14

November 9th, 2014 at 2:30pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Teams With Most Salary On Injured Reserve

November 8th, 2014 at 7:55pm CST by Luke Adams

On Friday, we took a look at the league’s highest-paid players to land on season-ending injured reserve. As I explained in that post, teams have control over how they use their cap space, but have little control over players’ injuries, so if highly-paid players end up on injured reserve, clubs may have limited flexibility to adequately replace them.

The next logical step then is to examine which teams have been the hit the hardest overall by season-ending injuries this year. Of course, a player’s cap number doesn’t necessarily reflect his importance – many of the league’s best players are underpaid – but when clubs devote significant chunks of their cap room to certain players, having those guys go down with injuries can be hard to overcome.

Listed below are the 14 teams who currently have more than $10MM in player salaries on season-ending injured reserve. Players who received the designation to return when they were placed on IR aren’t taken into account here, since those players could still contribute this season. Additionally, players on practice squad IR lists aren’t included, and cap numbers rather than base salaries are considered when adding up a team’s total IR cap hit. Here’s the top 14:

  1. St. Louis Rams: $30,605,636 (seven players)
  2. New York Giants: $22,033,726 (12)
  3. Oakland Raiders: $21,844,733 (8)
  4. Washington: $15,984,975 (7)
  5. Tennessee Titans: $15,202,696 (7)
  6. Atlanta Falcons: $14,885,479 (7)
  7. Jacksonville Jaguars: $14,617,538 (10)
  8. Arizona Cardinals: $14,230,500 (4)
  9. Philadelphia Eagles: $12,858,000 (5)
  10. Miami Dolphins: $12,567,956 (8)
  11. Chicago Bears: $11,210,500 (4)
  12. Cleveland Browns: $11,147,375 (4)
  13. Dallas Cowboys: $11,121,121 (7)
  14. San Diego Chargers: $10,316,892 (7)

So is there any correlation between a team’s “dead money” on the injured reserve list and its record? On the whole, the 13 clubs on this list combine for a 52-65 record thus far, which isn’t great. However, it gets a whole lot worse when we separate the top half from the bottom half — the first seven teams on this list have combined for an incredibly dismal 14-44 record.

Would some of those teams have been cellar-dwellers even without injury problems? Most likely. It’s hard to imagine a team like the Raiders, for instance, as even a .500 squad if they’d stayed completely healthy. Still, a few of those clubs were expected to compete for playoff spots, and the fact that they’ve fallen well out of contention likely has at least something to do with how much of their cap space is currently being devoted to players who aren’t actually playing.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.

Highest-Paid Players On Injured Reserve

November 7th, 2014 at 2:29pm CST by Luke Adams

Every one of the NFL’s 32 teams has control over how it spends its money and uses its cap space, but clubs have far less control over ensuring that their players avoid injuries. Given how many fluke collisions and non-contact injuries we see end seasons every year, a team needs a certain amount of luck to remain relatively healthy over the course of a 16-game season.

Through this season’s first nine weeks, every NFL team has had multiple players land on season-ending injured reserve, and in many cases, those clubs now have a decent chunk of their overall cap commitments sitting on IR. As one of our PFR Glossary entries outlines, “dead money” is a term applied to cap hits for players who are no longer on a team’s roster, but the cap numbers for players on injured reserve can be viewed as another form of dead money. These players’ seasons are over, and they aren’t counting toward their respective teams’ 53-man rosters, but their salaries still count against the cap.

Listed below are the top 10 highest-paid players by 2014 cap hit who have landed on season-ending injured reserve this season. Players who were given the designation to return aren’t included here.

  1. Sam Bradford (QB), Rams: $17.61MM
  2. Brian Orakpo (LB), Washington: $11.455MM
  3. Alex Mack (C), Browns: $10MM
  4. Paul Posluszny (LB), Jaguars: $9.5MM
  5. Jake Long (T), Rams: $9.25MM
  6. Darnell Dockett (DT), Cardinals: $8.75MM
  7. Dannell Ellerbe (LB), Dolphins: $7.425MM
  8. Victor Cruz (WR), Giants: $7.424MM
  9. Jerod Mayo (LB), Patriots: $7.288MM
  10. Tyvon Branch (S), Raiders: $7.157MM

As this list shows, some teams have had worse luck than others, and some of those clubs have been able to overcome that bad luck better than others. The Rams have two players in the top five of this list, and that doesn’t even take into account defensive end Chris Long, who is on IR with the designation to return and whose $12MM+ cap hit would rank second behind Bradford if he were included on this list. With well over $30MM in salaries currently sitting on IR, it’s hardly a surprise that the Rams have struggled this season and sit in last place in the NFC West.

Other cellar-dwelling teams like the Jaguars and Raiders have a player on this list too, but some teams have held their own despite losing key players — the Cardinals, Browns, and Patriots are among the clubs who have a highly-paid player on IR and still currently have a hold on a playoff spot due to their depth.

Here are the rest of the highest-paid players on IR who round out the top 25 of the current list:

  1. DeMeco Ryans (LB), Eagles: $6.9MM
  2. Michael Roos (T), Titans: $6.625MM
  3. Nick Hardwick (C), Chargers: $6.15MM
  4. Sam Baker (T), Falcons: $6.05MM
  5. Matt Cassel (QB), Vikings: $5.75MM
  6. Stephen Tulloch (LB), Lions: $5.05MM
  7. Lamarr Houston (DE), Bears: $5.04MM
  8. Mike DeVito (DE), Chiefs: $4.9MM
  9. LaMarr Woodley (DE), Raiders: $4.844MM
  10. Derrick Johnson (LB), Chiefs: $4.55MM
  11. Morris Claiborne (CB), Cowboys: $4.436MM
  12. Sean Weatherspoon (LB), Falcons: $4.133MM
  13. B.J. Raji (DT), Packers): $4MM
  14. John Abraham (LB), Cardinals: $3.925MM
  15. Nick Roach (LB), Raiders: $3.771MM

Later this weekend, we’ll take a look at the teams with the most total salary on injured reserve to see exactly how these players are affecting their respective clubs as a whole.

Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.

Extension Candidate: Carson Palmer

November 5th, 2014 at 10:35pm CST by Rory Parks

We learned several weeks ago that the Cardinals had opened extension talks with quarterback Carson Palmer, who is set to become a free agent at the end of the 2014 campaign. The Cardinals have been desperate for consistency under center since Kurt Warner retired after the 2009 season, and their search has taken them through eight different quarterbacks in a little less than five years.

Carson Palmer

Given Arizona’s quarterback woes and the success that Palmer and second-year head coach Bruce Arians have enjoyed together—the Cardinals are 14-7 under Arians when Palmer starts—it is easy to see why the team would want to secure Palmer’s services for at least the next couple of seasons. This is despite Palmer’s age (35) and recent injury history.

Although Drew Stanton went 2-1 this year in Palmer’s absence, the 30-year-old did little to prove that he is anything more than a career backup, and fourth-round rookie Logan Thomas is very much a work in progress. Furthermore, the top quarterbacks in the 2015 free agent class, assuming neither is re-signed by their current clubs, are Michael Vick and Brian Hoyer, and the 7-1 Cardinals are unlikely to have a shot at the top signal-callers in the 2015 draft unless they trade up.

As our Zach Links pointed out, even with the shortage of quality quarterbacks available, Palmer is unlikely to receive a significant hike in annual salary. He is earning $9MM this year, and that seems to be about right for a quarterback who is having something of a late-career renaissance but who does have age and injury concerns.

Palmer has amassed a 99.3 quarterback rating this season, throwing 11 touchdown passes to just two interceptions, and Pro Football Focus (subscription required) rates him as a solid but unspectacular passer, akin to Alex Smith and Andy Dalton. The naked eye test supports the PFF assessment, but as of right now, Arizona does not need Palmer to be an All-Pro. The Cardinals simply need continued stability and consistency, which, combined with their excellent defense, have created a surprising championship contender.

So if Palmer does not get a big boost in average annual value if and when he signs an extension with Arizona, and if Arians is right in his prediction that Palmer can play until he is 36 or 37, then a two-year pact worth between $20-22MM would appear to work well for both sides. The Cardinals could continue to groom Thomas, if they still believe in him, and the young talent they have at the offensive skill positions—not to mention the return of players like Daryl Washington and Darnell Dockett on the defensive side of the ball—should keep the Cards in contention for at least a wild card berth during the life of Palmer’s deal.

Wherever his next contract takes him, it will likely be the last in what has been an up-and-down, but nonetheless successful, career, the highlight of which may be yet to come.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

PFR Originals: 10/26/14 – 11/2/14

November 2nd, 2014 at 4:31pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Extension Candidate: Von Miller

November 1st, 2014 at 10:33pm CST by Luke Adams

Although they came into the season looking up at the defending-champion Seahawks, having been steamrolled by Russell Wilson and company back in February’s Super Bowl, the Broncos have since established themselves as 2014’s best team through eight weeks. At 6-1, Denver’s only loss came against those aforementioned Seahawks, and that was an overtime contest that could’ve gone either way. With solid victories against the Colts, Chiefs, Cardinals, 49ers, and Chargers also on their 2014 resumé, the Broncos head into the second half in pole position for the AFC’s top seed.NFL: Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

Everything is firing on all cylinders now for the Broncos, but at season’s end, the team will have several tough decisions to make. Impact players like wideouts Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker, tight end Julius Thomas, and cornerback Chris Harris face potential unrestricted free agency, and with about $108MM in salaries already on the books for 2015, the team may not have the flexibility to retain all its key players.

While those players whose deals expire at the end of the 2014 season will likely be Denver’s top priorities, the team also figures to address another important contract situation this offseason, with standout linebacker Von Miller eligible for an extension. Denver picked up its fifth-year option on Miller this past spring, meaning he’s under contract for a $9.754MM salary in 2015. However, it may be in both sides’ best interests to work out a longer-term agreement, one that locks up Miller for a few additional years and perhaps lowers his cap hit for ’15.

Two years ago, Miller was one of the league’s best defensive players in just his second NFL season, piling up 18.5 sacks and forcing six fumbles for the Broncos, earning himself a Pro Bowl spot and a First-Team All-Pro nod. 2013 was a struggle for Miller though, beginning with a six-game suspension for attempting to cheat a drug test and ending with a torn ACL that ended his year early. In between, the former second overall pick also recorded just five sacks in nine games and dealt with off-field legal issues.

As such, 2014 was an important year for Miller as the team assessed which soon-to-be free agents would be part of the long-term plans in Denver, and which were more expendable. So far, the 25-year-old’s play hasn’t left any doubt — the Broncos should do everything they can to lock him up. Through seven games, only Justin Houston of the divisional-rival Chiefs has more sacks (10) than Miller’s nine.

Of course, even in 2013, an apparent down year, advanced metrics suggested that Miller was far and away the best 4-3 outside linebacker in the league. Since he entered the NFL in 2011, Miller has ranked atop the list of qualified players at the position, and it hasn’t been close, according to Pro Football Focus’ data (subscription required). Miller’s grades of +48.2, +82.6, +42.8, and +26.4 have given him a double-digit margin over the runner-up in each of his four seasons, and have provided an indication of just how good he is against the run as well as the pass — his grade as a run defender has placed first among 4-3 OLBs in each of his four seasons.

There’s no question then that any team would love to have Miller on the field, and if he were a model citizen off the field, it would probably be just a matter of time until he signed one of the most lucrative contract extensions in all of football. But those off-field problems that have nagged Miller throughout his career figure to come up in contract negotiations, even if accounts out of Denver this season suggest that the Texas A&M product is developing into one of the Broncos’ leaders on defense. With the NFL facing increased public scrutiny in recent months, the league’s policies and penalties for off-field transgressions could become more punitive, and the risk of future suspensions for Miller might make the Broncos shy away from making a massive investment.

Still, it’s hard to downplay Miller’s on-field contributions. With the exception of J.J. Watt and perhaps a couple other players, no defender in the league has the sort of impact at his position that Miller does. Offseason additions like Aqib Talib, T.J. Ward, and DeMarcus Ware have played a part in the Broncos’ improved defense this season, but Miller is the unit’s most valuable piece, and I’d be shocked if the club ever let him reach the open market, even if there are lingering concerns about his off-field conduct.

In order to re-sign players like the Thomases and Harris in the offseason, the Broncos may look to reduce Miller’s $9.754MM cap hit for 2015 by signing him to an extension that pushes some of that money back to future seasons. If the two sides do try to work something out this winter, recent contracts signed by pass rushers like Tamba Hali and Trent Cole could serve as a baseline for Miller’s new deal. Given his astronomical numbers, I’d expect a deal for Miller to exceed the $11.5-12MM annual salaries secured by those players and perhaps land in the neighborhood of contracts signed by Charles Johnson, Robert Quinn, or even Mario Williams.

Those three deals range from four to six years, at a rate of $12.5-16MM per season, with between $15-32MM in guaranteed money. Based on Miller’s history and the Broncos’ typical method for structuring contracts, I could picture the two sides agreeing to a deal for something in the neighborhood of five years and $70-75MM, with a fairly modest guarantee — perhaps $15MM or so. An offer like that would give Miller the opportunity to earn significant annual salaries while giving the team some insurance in case the veteran’s off-field issues resurface.

General manager John Elway and company aren’t likely to address Miller’s contract, or any others, until after the season, but these negotiations shouldn’t be overlooked, even as the team attempts to re-sign Peyton Manning‘s top receivers (Thomas and Thomas) and the defense’s best cornerback (Harris). Playing out the 2015 season with Miller on a one-year deal is a possibility, particularly if the team wants to see him continue to mature, but this winter could be the best time to hammer out a long-term contract from a financial perspective.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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