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Offseason Outlook: New Orleans Saints

By | at February 19, 2015 8:55 am

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Drew Brees, QB: $26,400,000
  2. Junior Galette, DE: $15,450,000
  3. Jimmy Graham, TE: $11,000,000
  4. Jahri Evans, G: $11,000,000
  5. Jairus Byrd, S: $10,300,000
  6. Marques Colston, WR: $9,700,000
  7. Ben Grubbs, G: $9,600,000
  8. Curtis Lofton, LB: $9,250,000
  9. Cameron Jordan, DE: $6,969,000
  10. Brodrick Bunkley, DT: $6,112,500

Notable coaching changes:

  • Hired 2014 Raiders head coach Dennis Allen as senior defensive assistant.

Draft:

  • No. 13 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

The PFR staff didn’t agree on much when we submitted our predictions for the 2014 season. However, we were all on the same page when it came to the Saints. Every writer – including yours truly – predicted that New Orleans would win the NFC South. More than one writer saw the Saints playing in February and, why not? On paper, there was no reason to think that they couldn’t be one of the league’s elite once again. Of course, when the Saints finished with a 7-9 mark, we all wound up with a red X, though that record was nearly good enough to take the crown in what proved to be an awful year for the division.

In short, the Saints have some work to do this offseason to get back on top, but not a whole lot of cap room to work with.

Positions Of Need

The Saints’ top need is probably at the cornerback position and they’re widely expected to address that in free agency rather than in the draft. When the Saints’ duo of Keenan Lewis and Jabari Greer patrolled the field in 2013, New Orleans had themselves a solid pairing that gave the team above-average production, as the metrics at Pro Football Focus (subscription required) show. However, Greer suffered a devastating career-ending injury midway through the season and that unit really hasn’t been the same since. This offseason, the Saints are probably looking for something more substantial than a band-aid fix.

Luckily, there should be no shortage of quality options on the open market. At the top of the list, the Saints could find guys like Byron Maxwell, Kareem Jackson, and Brandon Flowers. Veteran Antonio Cromartie will also be there, though teams might be wary of his age and a possible regression towards the kind of play he exhibited during the end of his tenure with the Jets. If the Saints do look to the draft for a CB, guys like Michigan State cornerback Trae Waynes, Washington corner Marcus Peters, or LSU’s Jalen Collins could be options, though all have their own drawbacks, including Peters’ off-the-field incidents. Recently, Saints defensive back Corey White, who was seeing time at safety to close out the 2014 season, made it known that he’ll be moving back to cornerback. However, I would expect that he’ll be no higher than the No. 3 option on the depth chart.

The Saints will also look to make upgrades at both outside linebacker and probably inside linebacker. PFF rated Curtis Lofton as one of the very worst starting linebackers in the NFL last season and, frankly, you probably didn’t need advanced metrics to tell you that. And, on the outside, the Saints need a worthy partner for Junior Galette, who might not even be on the field to start the season thanks to his January incident. With a desperate need for an athletic edge rusher, the OLB need will probably take priority even over the inside. Florida’s Dante Fowler Jr. has been widely connected to the Saints at No. 13 and he could be a fit as both a defensive end and outside linebacker. Clemson’s Vic Beasley is another intriguing possibility and one that could potentially fit at both positions, even if some believe he projects more as a defensive end. Meanwhile, reserve Parys Haralson will be back in the fold for the Saints after agreeing to a one-year deal.

Khiry Robinson is promising but the Saints will be in the market for a tailback if Mark Ingram goes elsewhere. New Orleans could also shop for a center if they don’t feel that Tim Lelito is ready for primetime.Mark Ingram (Featured)

Key Free Agents

The Saints are still interested in reaching a deal with Ingram, but GM Mickey Loomis stressed on Wednesday that their ability to keep him will be “intertwined” with the team’s salary cap situation and Ingram’s market value. “In free agency, everyone wants to see what the market is,” Loomis said. “The question is, can that get done prior to March 10? Can both sides get a good feel for that beforehand and do a deal, or do we need to wait and see where all the offers are and respond accordingly?” With limited cap room and multiple teams that could be in the market for a running back, his return is anything but certain. Meanwhile, fellow tailback Travaris Cadet is headed towards restricted free agency.

While the Saints secondary as a whole was disappointing in 2014, especially with the injuries suffered by Jairus Byrd and Kenny Vaccaro, Jamarca Sanford was something of a bright spot when he joined the team later in the season. We’re not expecting an overhaul at either strong safety or free safety, but the team probably wants Sanford back as a safety net in case of another letdown.

After taking care of Haralson and kicker Shayne Graham, the Saints don’t have a whole lot of other high-priority free agents. The aforementioned Goodwin will be eligible for free agency, but they’ll probably part ways after a season in which the veteran ranked No. 27 out of 41 qualified centers, per PFF.

Possible Cap Casualties

Marques Colston has been a mainstay on the Saints roster for years, but he has regressed sharply and he has the salary of a top-20 receiver. Releasing Colston would give the Saints $4.3MM in cap room, but it might make more sense to keep him, possibly with a reworked contract. The Saints love to spread the ball around to different receivers from week to week, but Colston is the one who sees more looks that any of them on the whole.

After an atrocious 2014, Lofton’s time in New Orleans could be through, though there isn’t an in-house answer to replace him. Guard Jahri Evans has an $11MM cap charge for 2015 and the Saints could save $6MM by dropping him. However, it’s worth noting that Evans played the second half of the season with a partially torn triangular fibrocartilage complex in his wrist, so the team might have higher hopes for him once he’s healthy. Cutting nose tackle Brodrick Bunkley, who finished the year on IR, would save the team nearly $2.9MM. Tailback Pierre Thomas could also go, but I think his future will depend largely on what happens with Ingram and Cadet this offseason.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

With their backs against the wall, the Saints can be expected to try and restructure deals with multiple players. Currently hamstrung with being more than $23MM over the cap, the Saints can play around with the contracts of Jimmy Graham, Byrd, Galette, and Lofton to take care of that overage.

Drew Brees has a cap charge of $26.4MM in 2015 and $27.4MM in 2016, but converting salary to a bonus next season would only cripple the club’s cap in future seasons. Some have suggested that Brees could (or should) effectively take a pay cut like Tom Brady did with the Patriots, but Brees has been outspoken on players’ rights and the Saints would probably be barking up the tree if they went that route.

An extension for Brees, tacking a couple extra years onto a contract that currently runs through the 2016 season, could be a win-win for the player and the team, reducing his short-term cap hit while ensuring that he has the sort of deal that would allow him to finish his career in New Orleans. Extending Cameron Jordan may also allow the club to clear some 2015 cap room, as he’s currently on the books for nearly $7MM. Jordan recorded just 7.5 sacks last year after racking up 12.5 in 2013, and his pass-rushing production dropped off across the board, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). But he’s still capable of getting to the quarterback and more than held his own against the run — it’d be a little surprising if the Saints don’t want to keep him around beyond 2015.

Overall Outlook

The Saints don’t have a ton of breathing room this offseason and they’re not going to make a giant splash in free agency like they did last year with Byrd. Still, they’ll be able to improve with their top-half draft picks and if they make a few sacrifices, they can carve out enough space to get the cornerback they need. New Orleans could expand its cap room even further by effectively living for today and borrowing against their future, but that wouldn’t be the wise long-term play for this team.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason Outlook: Houston Texans

By | at February 18, 2015 7:49 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. J.J. Watt, DL: $21,969,000
  2. Andre Johnson, WR: $16,144,583
  3. Johnathan Joseph, CB: $12,250,000
  4. Duane Brown, T: $9,500,000
  5. Arian Foster, RB: $8,906,250
  6. Chris Myers, C: $8,000,000
  7. Brian Cushing, LB: $7,891,250
  8. Jadeveon Clowney, OLB: $5,062,045
  9. Garrett Graham, TE: $3,921,875
  10. Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB: $3,875,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 16 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

After inheriting a 2-14 team, Bill O’Brien took over the Texans and brought them right back to respectability in just one season. Most of the attention went to J.J. Watt, and deservedly so, after an astounding season that saw him receive 13 MVP votes, the most for a defensive player since Lawrence Taylor in 1986.

However, Watt didn’t lead the team to nine wins – and one Week 17 Ravens’ loss to the Connor Shaw-led Browns from a playoff spot – all by himself. Defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel patched together a strong defensive season without much notable star-power on that side of the ball. The team finished seventh in scoring defense, according to ESPN, and also graded out as a top-10 defense according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Just a year ago, the unit were 24th in scoring defense and 16th per PFF. The big addition this offseason was first overall pick Jadeveon Clowney, who played in only four games and accumulated five tackles.

The offense is what really held the team back, specifically the quarterback position. The Texans had to turn Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett, Tom Savage, and Case Keenum at different points during the year, which proved inconsistent at best. If the team can get an equal or better effort from the defense in 2015, consistent offense should be enough to put Houston back in the playoffs.Ryan Mallett

Key Free Agents

With the quarterback position in flux, Mallett turns into one of the more intriguing free agents on the market for the Texans. Most teams will view Mallett as an afterthought at worst, and a question mark at best, but the Texans coaching staff has a full season of practice reps to judge him on. An unfortunate injury robbed the team of more game film, but no other suitor will be more familiar with what he has to offer. O’Brien knows him particularly well, going back to his time coaching him in New England. It is difficult to project the Texans’ interest in Mallett, but what they do with him will be telling. If they don’t make a concerted effort to sign him, even to a small backup-level deal, he might have trouble finding work anywhere in the league.

Kendrick Lewis played a huge role in a surprisingly good defense in 2014, playing 1097 snaps, most on the defense. I imagine if the Texans thought they had a better option, they would have used him. While Lewis graded out positively in 2014 (subscription), he was far from a revelation. The market for his services should be diminished enough for the Texans to bring him back at a reasonable rate, but in a weak free agent class for safeties, a 26-year old talent who has proven to be durable could wind up being overpaid. Danieal Manning played about half the snaps that Lewis did, but graded out slightly better over that sample. He could stay or go on a small contract, depending on how the rest of free agency and the draft go.

Staying in the secondary, Kareem Jackson was the team’s best cornerback in 2014, surpassing Johnathan Joseph as the number one guy in the secondary. His breakout season came at the wrong time for the team, as he will be sought after heavily in what could be a weak cornerback class in both the draft and free agency. It would be difficult to justify signing Jackson to a big extension with Joseph still on the books.

Offensive tackle Derek Newton and outside linebacker Brooks Reed are both players with good track records in Houston that the team would like to have back in the fold. Both would draw interest on the open market, but the Texans would likely have an edge in bringing them back.

Akeem Dent, Jerrell Powe, and Ryan Pickett could all be back next season due to scheme familiarity, depending on what the team accomplishes in free agency and the draft.

Possible Cap Casualties

Andre Johnson is the best player in Texans history, and it isn’t even close. Drafted in the first round of Houston’s second draft, he has spent his whole career with the franchise. During that time, he put together a pretty good Hall of Fame case, currently placing himself ninth all time in receptions and 12th in receiving yards.

However, Johnson slipped dramatically in 2014, failing to reach the 1,000-yard mark for the first time since his rookie year, in a season that he was healthy and played at least 14 games. He also posted his fewest receptions in a healthy season since his second year in the league. Johnson has struggled with injuries throughout his career, missing large portions of the 2007 and 2011 seasons, as well as missing three games in 2005. The scariest part of the 2014 campaign is the tremendous dip in his yards per catch over the last two seasons. From 2007 to 2012 he averaged between 13.7 and 15.5 yards per catch, but in the last two years, he has averaged 12.9 (2013) and just 11.0 (2014). That last number tied him for 83rd in the league among qualified players.

A drop in yards per catch often signifies a loss of explosiveness, and could pose trouble for the star receiver going forward. If these two numbers prove to be anomalies, like his low averages in 2005 and 2006, that’s fine, but if they become a trend it will be hard to justify his large cap number. Set to make $21.5MM in base salary over the next two years, with cap numbers totaling over $30MM, Johson is one of the highest paid receivers in the league, according to OverTheCap.com. The team could save nearly $21MM by cutting the veteran wideout, although asking him to take a pay cut could be a more ideal option for the team.

An extension for Johnson could be another option, but the emergence of DeAndre Hopkins as the team’s number one option cuts Johnson’s leverage in contract talks.

Johnathan Joseph hasn’t been with the team nearly as long, but he was a huge part of an excellent Texans’ defense that made back-to-back playoff appearances in the 2011 and 2012 NFL seasons. Joseph signed a five-year contract as the top corner available during the 2011 offseason, and with rookie J.J. Watt, was part of a massive defensive improvement on way to the first playoff appearance and the first playoff victory in Texans’ franchise history. Joseph made the Pro Bowl during each of his first two seasons. The Texans would be in a tough spot if they lost both Jackson and Joseph, but if they can manage to bring back Jackson, they could save $8.5MM by releasing Joseph. Brian Cushing is in a similar situation as Joseph, having dealt with injuries and a decline in performance, but his guaranteed base salary would make it difficult to justify cutting him.

Texans center Chris Myers has been among the better players at his position over the last five years, and the Texans have had effective running games during the best stretch in franchise history largely because of the efforts of Myers and offensive tackle Duane Brown. Myers, like Joseph, made the Pro Bowl in 2011 and 2012. However, if the team feels comfortable it can withstand the drop in production that could come with going to a younger player, the $6MM the team would save could go a long way towards re-signing other players this offseason.

Two more interesting possibilities are Arian Foster and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Foster continues to be highly productive and effective as both a runner and receiver, but with the devaluation of running backs, a back with such a high cap number and Foster’s injury history should be on alert. Cap savings this year would be less than $4MM, unless he is designated a post-June 1st cut, but more likely it will be interesting to see what the Texans do with him next offseason as he enters the final year of his contract. For Fitzpatrick, it depends on what the Texans do at the quarterback position with the rest of the offseason. Right now, he might still be the best option for the team. However, his $3.25MM salary would make him a very highly-paid backup. If the team can find another option in the draft or free agency, it might make sense to spend that money elsewhere on the roster.

Positions Of Need

As is the case for all teams with question marks at the quarterback position, that QB spot immediately becomes the most pressing need on the team. Using four quarterbacks in a season is never a good thing, especially when the best option of the four is Fitzpatrick — even Fitzpatrick’s 17:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio was buoyed by a six-touchdown, zero-interception game against a Titans team that will be drafting second overall this season. Houston’s current options aren’t great. After Fitzpatrick, the only in-house options are the unproven Mallett and the unrefined Savage. Neither player would inspire confidence.

Of course, the options in free agency aren’t much better. Brian Hoyer and Mark Sanchez are probably the top options on the market, and if that’s the case, the team’s best option may just be to roll with Fitzpatrick again. Texans’ fans may have thought the team had a chance at Teddy Bridgewater with the top pick in the second round last spring, but the Vikings wisely traded back into the end of the first round to select him. Picking 16th this year, the Texans only options at quarterback figure to be Brett Hundley of UCLA and Bryce Petty, unless Marcus Mariota continues to tumble down big boards across the NFL. Hundley and Petty are both flawed prospects and neither represents an immediate improvement at the position. Both might go on to have full and impressive NFL careers, but if the team plans to compete in 2015 it needs a more polished and more dynamic player leading the offense.

Depending on whether or not the team is able to keep Johnson, receiver will be another position of need this offseason. Even if the team moves on from Johnson, the Texans will have trouble targeting a receiver off the top of the market such as Randall Cobb or Jeremy Maclin, but a player like Eddie Royal, Cecil Shorts, or Leonard Hankerson could be brought in on a modest contract as a second or third wide receiver. Tight end might be an even more pressing need, especially if the team decides that Garrett Graham isn’t the long-term answer at the position. The Texans would have trouble going after a very top-of-the-market veteran, but if they could make a move for a player like Jermaine Gresham or Jordan Cameron, that would constitute a huge upgrade.

The Texans got adequate performances from their interior linemen on both sides of the ball, but could stand to improve if a reasonable option presents itself. That also depends on what they decide to do with some of their current veterans, who may represent good enough options to remain with the team. The team faces the same dilemma at inside linebacker and cornerback, where the status quo might be just enough if they decide to bring those units back.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The top extension candidate for the Texans must be right guard Brandon Brooks. Brooks graded out as the eighth-best guard according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), and at a minimal salary the team would want to lock him up long term. Brooks has proven himself over two years, and with only a year left on his rookie deal, this offseason would be the best time for the Texans to extend him with leverage.

The more exciting names are the ones who already showed up in the cap casualties section. Both Johnson and Joseph could be seen as extension candidates due to their high cap numbers. Ideally, the Texans would want both to take a pay cut to stay with the team, but there could be some compromise to lower their current cap number and keep them with the team for a few more years. This applies especially to Johnson, where there would be some added value in having him retire in a Texans uniform.

The Texans also have a decision to make on the future of former first-round pick Whitney Mercilus, and with Reed and Clowney in the fold, Mercilus seems expendable. If they do want to keep him long-term, they could hang it over his head as leverage to signing an extension. If they keep Reed, they could get by even if Clowney misses additional time after an injury plagued rookie season. On the other hand, if Reed leaves in free agency, the leverage returns to Mercilus as the only experienced outside linebacker on the team.

Overall Outlook

Had the Ravens lost to the Browns in Week 17, we might be looking much differently at this Texans’ team and the job O’Brien did with it. Houston would have made it into the playoffs, and would have had a decent shot at beating a Steelers’ squad that was missing All-Pro running back Le’Veon Bell. We would have gotten to see another game or two from Watt, and perhaps a Texans playoff berth would have earned the star defender enough votes to challenge Aaron Rodgers for the MVP.

Jumping from a two-win 2013 to a nine-win 2014 would seem to make the Texans a prime candidate for regression in 2015. The best way to fight regression is always by building on a roster and by getting consistent quarterback play. The Texans can look at the division-rival Colts for proof of that — for those who dismiss that comparison because they think Andrew Luck is a superhuman, the Chiefs are a more reasonable representation. That team was able to withstand losing players such as Brandon Flowers and Eric Berry, and was able to continue winning despite serious roster flaws and obvious red flags for regression. A lot of the credit for that goes to a sound coaching job by Andy Reid, and consistent and efficient quarterback play from Alex Smith. Far from spectacular, he was good enough to keep the team in every game, and allowed a strong running game and dominant defense to shine.

If the Texans are able to bring back the best parts of their team and make a few nominal improvements, all they will need is consistent quarterback play to stay in the playoff hunt in 2015. The only question is whether or not they can find that consistency from one of the quarterbacks on the roster, in the draft, or in free agency.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Ravens

By | at February 18, 2015 7:47 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Haloti Ngata, DL: $16,000,000
  2. Joe Flacco, QB: $14,550,000
  3. Lardarius Webb, CB: $12,000,000
  4. Marshal Yanda, G: $8,450,000
  5. Eugene Monroe, T: $7,700,000
  6. Jimmy Smith, CB: $6,898,000
  7. Elvis Dumervil, OLB: $6,375,000
  8. Terrell Suggs, OLB: $6,200,000
  9. Dennis Pitta, TE: $6,200,000
  10. Steve Smith, WR: $4,166,666

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

Other:

Overview

The Ravens suffered an agonizing loss at the hands of the eventual-champion Patriots in the divisional round of the 2014 playoffs to bring a disappointing end to an up-and-down season. Nonetheless, there is reason for optimism in Baltimore, as Joe Flacco enjoyed a career year behind an improved offensive line, and the offense as a whole made tremendous strides under offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak. Although Kubiak left Baltimore to become head coach of the Broncos, the transition to the West Coast leanings of former Bears head coach and noted offensive mind Marc Trestman should be a fairly seamless one.

On the defensive side of the ball, veteran pass rushers Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs combined with young talents like C.J. Mosley, Pernell McPhee, and Brandon Williams to form an imposing front seven, and the special teams unit, buoyed by the feet of Justin Tucker and Sam Koch, enjoyed another strong year. According to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric, Baltimore boasted the ninth-best offense in the league, the eight-best defense, and the second-best special teams unit. Although the AFC North may again prove to be one of, if not the, toughest division in football in 2015, the Ravens should once again be neck-and-neck with the Bengals and Steelers in the fight for the division crown.

Marc Trestman (Vertical)Positions Of Need

Nonetheless, there is plenty of room for concern. The Ravens have a limited amount of cap space entering the offseason, and a big reason for that is the $9.5MM of dead money that former running back Ray Rice will count against the cap. Between Rice and Dennis Pitta, whose playing status for 2015–and for his career–is up in the air after a second major hip injury ended his season in Week 3, the Ravens will devote nearly $16MM of cap room to players who might not even play a snap next season.

Despite that, Baltimore will have to find a way to address a few significant needs. Offensively, the team once again may find itself in need of at least one wide receiver, as Torrey Smith‘s future in Baltimore is highly uncertain. Smith is far and away the best receiver the Ravens have ever drafted, as the team has struggled to groom young receiving talent and in recent years has increasingly looked to veterans like Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Smith Sr. to fill the void. But the former Maryland standout struggled to get into a rhythm in 2014, and despite scoring 11 touchdowns, he posted a career low in yardage (767) and tied a career low with 49 receptions.

Torrey Smith reportedly turned down a five-year, $35MM extension before the 2014 season, which appears to have been a misstep at this point. But even if he cannot match or better that deal, it is unclear whether the Ravens can afford to retain him. Trestman is particularly fond of utilizing the short and intermediate portions of the route tree, and in addition to Smith Sr., Baltimore has a number of younger players who have at least displayed the ability to thrive in those routes. Torrey Smith, meanwhile, has not grown into the complete receiver the Ravens had hoped for, as he is still seen primarily as a deep threat who struggles in other facets of the game. It is also worth noting that Brandon Marshall and Vincent Jackson have both been linked to Baltimore in recent weeks, and if one of them becomes available, either via release or trade, the Ravens could pounce. If they do, Torrey Smith’s days in purple and black would likely be numbered. Baltimore could then look to the draft to find some home run speed on the outside.

Tight end could pose even more of a problem for the Ravens. Owen Daniels filled in nicely for Pitta after Pitta’s season-ending hip injury, but Daniels is on the downside of his career and has struggled with injuries of his own in the past. Plus, many believe that Daniels will follow Kubiak, the only head coach he has ever played for, to Denver (particularly if the Broncos are unable to retain Julius Thomas). With Pitta’s playing career in doubt, Baltimore could look to the free agent market, where Jermaine Gresham could be an interesting fit, and release candidate Vernon Davis might become an option. Beyond that, the Ravens will pray that Pitta can make a healthy return, and they may expend an early draft pick on a player like Maxx Williams, who has drawn favorable comparisons to former Raven Todd Heap.

Although we have heard ad nauseam that running backs are becoming more and more devalued as the NFL continues to evolve into a pass-first league, the Ravens will need to replace Justin Forsett‘s production if he leaves in free agency. Forsett was a revelation in 2014, amassing 1,266 yards and eight touchdowns while sustaining a terrific 5.2 YPC average. But the former seventh-round pick might have priced himself out of Baltimore, as the Ravens cannot afford to pay a premium for a running back. If Forsett leaves, Bernard Pierce would be the logical internal option, but Pierce has dealt with injuries throughout the course of his brief career, and he was outclassed by Forsett when he did see the field in 2014. Last year’s fourth-round pick, Lorenzo Taliaferro, showed some upside as a bruiser in his rookie campaign, but the jury is still out on whether he could capably handle a full workload. Chris Johnson, who was recently released by the Jets, has been linked to Baltimore, but that seems like an unlikely marriage at this point. If the Ravens look to free agency to find a running back, a younger, high-upside player like Roy Helu would appear to be a better fit.

The Ravens boast a fairly strong defense overall, but the secondary was the team’s undoing in 2014. The unit was ravaged by injury and poor play, and its shortcomings played a major role in the Ravens’ inability to finish a near upset of New England in the playoffs. The secondary will greatly benefit just by getting healthy, as the returns of Asa Jackson and standout corner Jimmy Smith, along with the continued good health of Lardarius Webb–who struggled for much of 2014 but showed flashes of his old self down the stretch–will be instrumental in the team’s success going forward. However, the Ravens learned the hard way that you can never have enough depth in the secondary, so it would not be a surprise to see them sign at least one defensive back in free agency and draft at least one. Free agent safety Antrel Rolle and University of Washington corner Marcus Peters would be logical choices.

It would be out of character, not to mention out of the team’s price range, to pursue a high-priced free agent to fill its needs in the secondary. As such, players like Byron Maxwell and Darrelle Revis are almost certainly out of the question, but less expensive options like Rolle, Brandon Flowers, and Javier Arenas might be in play. Baltimore will also hope for growth from last year’s third-round pick Terrence Brooks and for any sign of life out of former first-rounder Matt Elam, who has done nothing to justify his lofty draft status in his two years in the league.

Key Free Agents

We’ve touched on most of the Ravens’ key free agents already. Torrey Smith, Forsett, and, to a lesser extent, Daniels, will be the primary focus of the team’s decision-makers when it comes to retaining their own players, but Baltimore does have one defensive player who will be included in that group: McPhee.

McPhee is the sort of under-the-radar, mid-round gem that GM Ozzie Newsome has been so adept at mining. The former fifth-rounder from Mississippi State is listed as an outside linebacker, but he has also demonstrated the ability to line up anywhere along the defensive line, and he is particularly skilled at getting to the quarterback from the interior of the line. He proved to be a significant part of the Ravens’ pass rush in 2014, and his departure would certainly leave a void. However, as our Zach Links wrote earlier this month, the Ravens may view McPhee as more of a complementary piece than a core player, and given his likely price tag—it would not be surprising to see him net a five-year deal worth upwards of $30MM—it seems unlikely he will be back in Baltimore. Instead, the Ravens will rely on internal options like Kapron Lewis-Moore and Brent Urban, both of whom have high upside but have yet to play a snap in their professional careers due to injury.

Will Hill and Tucker are the biggest names on the team’s restricted free agent list. Given the semblance of stability Hill brought to the Ravens’ secondary in the second half of the season, and given that Tucker has proven himself as both a highly-accurate and clutch kicker during his three years in the league, both players will doubtlessly remain in Baltimore.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

Torrey Smith and McPhee would be the most likely candidates to get the franchise tag this year, but it would be surprising for the Ravens to put the tag on either player. Smith’s regression in 2014 and McPhee’s role as a part-time player—he played only 540 defensive snaps last year—suggest that Baltimore will not absorb the cap hit that the tag for a wide receiver or outside linebacker carries.

Nonetheless, the Ravens will have a few contract issues to resolve. For instance, the team simply cannot afford the $16MM that star defensive lineman Haloti Ngata would count against the cap in 2015, and if he is not willing to restructure his contract, the Ravens would create $8.5MM of cap room by releasing him.

Although the 31-year-old Ngata is on the downside of his career, he proved in 2014 that he is still a premier defensive player, especially when part of a deep rotation of young, talented linemen. He may prefer to stay in Baltimore with the only organization he has ever known, especially since his value on the open market is likely to take a hit thanks to his age and his four-game suspension for Adderall in 2014. Furthermore, many of the teams with the most cap space, who would presumably be able to make the best offer for Ngata’s services, either project to be non-contenders or weaker contenders than Baltimore in 2015. Therefore, it would not be a surprise for him to rework his deal just as Suggs did last season, thereby allowing him to finish his career where it started and providing the Ravens with a little bit of financial breathing room.

It would also behoove the Ravens to extend blue-chip right guard Marshal Yanda, as our Luke Adams wrote last week. Yanda carries an $8.45MM cap number for 2015, so an extension would allow the Ravens to lessen that hit while securing Yanda’s top-flight services for perhaps the rest of his career.

Webb, meanwhile, presents an interesting case. The 29-year-old corner has battled injuries throughout his career, including two torn ACLs and back problems that plagued him throughout much of 2014. But as indicated above, Webb played much better as 2014 went along, and although the Ravens cannot afford his $12MM cap number, they also cannot afford to let a quality defensive back leave. Releasing Webb would create just $2MM of cap space and $10MM of dead money, and Webb does not appear to be the type of player to play “hardball” with his team, so it seems as though the two sides are headed for their second restructure in as many seasons.

The Ravens may also look to extend Jimmy Smith, whose value as a shutdown corner was underscored by his absence after he suffered a season-ending sprained foot in Baltimore’s Week 8 matchup against Cincinnati. Smith is entering the final year of his rookie contract.

As far as releases are concerned, Chris Canty is probably on his way out, and even longtime punter Koch, who carries a $3MM+ cap number, has been discussed as a potential cap casualty. Jacoby Jones, who continued to perform well as a kick returner, saw his stock as a receiver take a serious hit in 2014 as his struggles catching the football resurfaced in a big way. His 2015 cap number of $3.38MM therefore may be too much for the Ravens, who could create $2.5MM of savings if they make Jones a post-June 1 release. If they let Jones go, Asa Jackson or Michael Campanaro would likely get the first crack at return duties. However, Jones, like Koch, has good odds of being back next season, as the cap space created by releasing them may not outweigh the benefits of keeping them on the roster.

Overall Outlook

Even after the expected restructures and releases, the Ravens are not likely to have a ton of cap space to be big spenders in the free agent market. But then again, they never are. Newsome prefers to avoid the first wave of free agency, instead waiting for release candidates from other clubs to become available while collecting a bevy of compensatory picks when his own free agents cash in elsewhere. That approach allows him to continue developing talent through the draft, where he has, with a few exceptions, generally excelled.

Every prediction comes with the obvious caveat of “as long as no one gets hurt.” With that in mind, the Ravens can reasonably expect to be contenders in 2015. The healthy return of a few key pieces in the secondary, along with some much-needed reinforcements in that unit, should complete an already-talented defense. McPhee’s likely departure will sting, but the Ravens have always managed to find talent in the front seven, so I would not expect too much of a drop-off there in 2015, especially if the team can find a way to keep Ngata in the fold.

Offensively, as much as the Ravens like Torrey Smith, he is replaceable. If Smith is not retained, players like Brandon Marshall or Vincent Jackson would become options and would represent upgrades. At tight end, the Ravens currently have little depth behind Pitta, as Crockett Gillmore is seen as a blocking tight end who has shown good hands but who projects as more of a secondary receiving option than a primary target. Baltimore will almost be forced to address that position in free agency or with an early draft choice, and Gresham still has intriguing upside despite not living up to his potential in Cincinnati.

There is also reason to believe that the zone-blocking scheme that turned Forsett into a Pro Bowl player would do the same for any number of backs. As such, if he does not return on a fairly team-friendly deal, I would not expect much panic in Baltimore. I do expect, though, that the team will be fairly strong in 2015, with Trestman at the helm of an offense on the upswing, a strong defensive foundation in place, and an AFC North title well within reach.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Market For Interior DL

By | at February 18, 2015 8:58 am

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to interior defensive linemen — defensive tackles and 3-4 defensive ends. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

Suh may be the subject of more headlines this offseason than the rest of the players in this group put together, but there are plenty of above-average contributors here besides the Lions star. In fact, a couple of them are Suh’s teammates, Fairley and Mosley. It’s almost certainly a one-or-the-others scenario for Detroit, as the team will likely let its other defensive tackles go if Suh returns to the fold — if he lands elsewhere, the Lions would have much more flexibility to bring back the rest of their potential free agents.

Outside of the Lions trio, the top names here include Odrick, Knighton, Paea, and Williams. Melton could join this group too, if a team was confident in his health. All five of those players ranked among the top 20 defensive tackles in the league in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus’ grades (subscription required). Paea and Melton excelled at getting to the quarterback, but had the worst grades against the run of any top-20 defensive tackle. Knighton and Williams, on the other hand, had their positive grades buoyed by strong performances against the run, while Odrick was somewhere in between.

PFF also liked the performance of McDonald, who ranked as the NFL’s 12th-best 3-4 defensive end. However, the off-field issues surrounding McDonald, who is being investigated following accusations of sexual assault, were serious enough that the 49ers released him before the season even ended. Even if McDonald isn’t formally charged or convicted, he could be facing discipline from the league, and the trouble he has had with the law could scare off potential suitors.

Raji is another wild card in this group. He’s still only 28 years old, and he’s a former first-round pick, but he missed the entire 2014 campaign with a torn biceps, and had a dismal 2013 as a 3-4 DE. If he’s healthy and transitions back into his original nose tackle role, Raji could be a bargain for a team that takes advantage of a buy-low opportunity.

Other unrestricted options:

If a team misses out on the top tier of interior linemen, it should have plenty of choices here. The players in this list range from nose tackles to 4-3 DTs to 3-4 DEs, and some of them may even be capable of playing on the end for a 4-3 team, so a club’s targets will depend on its needs.

Kelly and Williams are among the veterans here who would be nice stopgaps for a team looking for a short-term solution on the inside. Guion should also attract plenty of interest, though he could be facing discipline from the league following his legal troubles. The same goes for Cody, whom the Ravens released just weeks before he actually reached the open market, due to an animal cruelty investigation.

Klug, Jenkins, Douzable, and Ellis are a few more players in their mid-to-late 20s who could be nice fits in the right system. Douzable and Ellis, in particular, are interesting cases — they have played well for Rex Ryan‘s Jets as run stoppers in recent years, but with so much talent on the Bills’ defensive line already, it will be interesting to see if they follow Ryan to Buffalo or try to find an opportunity that could afford them more playing time.

Restricted FAs:

In a class of restricted free agents that isn’t particularly strong overall, this group actually looks a little more intriguing than the RFAs at most positions. In my opinion, Harrison and Thornton are each worthy of at least second-round tenders from their respective clubs. Both players ranked among the best players at their positions against the run, according to PFF (subscription required). The full list of defensive tackle who had better run defense grades than Harrison? Marcell Dareus and Suh — that’s it. With negotiations for Muhammad Wilkerson on the horizon, the Jets will want to ensure that they lock up Harrison, so it wouldn’t even be a surprise if he received a first-round tender, given the team’s excess cap room.

Walker and Kitchen also held their own as part-time players for the Saints and Browns respectively, so I’d expect them to draw interest if their clubs decide not to extend an RFA tender.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

0 comments 2015 Free Agent Market Series 2015 Free Agents PFR Originals

Offseason Outlook: Washington

By | at February 17, 2015 5:43 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Trent Williams, T: $13,730,393
  2. Pierre Garcon, WR: $9,700,000
  3. DeSean Jackson, WR: $9,250,000
  4. Stephen Bowen, DL: $8,020,000
  5. Barry Cofield, DT: $7,677,500
  6. Ryan Kerrigan, OLB: $7,038,000
  7. Robert Griffin III, QB: $6,719,713
  8. Jason Hatcher, DL: $5,250,000
  9. DeAngelo Hall, CB: $4,812,500
  10. Chris Chester, G: $4,800,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 5 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

In January of 2014, Washington hired Jay Gruden to be the team’s next head coach after Mike Shanahan was let go. Almost a year later, many wondered if he’d get a second season. Ultimately, Gruden was assured his job after a convincing Week 16 victory over the Eagles. The same can’t be said for everyone else in the organization, however.

Longtime GM Bruce Allen was removed from his post in favor of Scot McCloughan, a seasoned executive with many years of scouting experience. For a team that hasn’t always nailed it in the draft, McCloughan’s arrival could prove to be a game changer. Meanwhile, Joe Barry was brought aboard as the team’s new defensive coordinator to replace Jim Haslett. Barry was Washington’s first choice — sort of. The club went hard after the Chargers linebackers coach, then changed direction sharply once 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio became available. Once things failed to shake out with Fangio, Washington circled back to Barry and got its original No. 1 pick.

Positions Of Need

Washington’s top priority will probably be to address the two starting safety spots. Last season, the club’s safeties were repeatedly burned deep and opposing offenses seemed to have little trouble with blowing the lid off of the coverage. The team primarily relied on Ryan Clark and Brandon Meriweather in 2014. To say that the duo disappointed would be an understatement. Meriweather was rated as the No. 60 safety in the league by Pro Football Focus (subscription required and recommended), while Clark was dead last among the qualified players at the position at No. 87. Meriweather’s -2.1 overall score indicated that he was merely below average. Clark’s -20.7 rating pegged him as being downright atrocious.

If Washington moves on from both safeties, the team could theoretically fill one hole with Phillip Thomas. Thomas was was a fourth-round pick in 2013 but has seen limited playing time thanks to injuries and time on the club’s taxi squad. However, he started four games to close out the 2014 season and he could be in the mix for a starting job, provided that he isn’t too green for it.

Still, Washington can be expected to go out of house for at least one of those roles. In a perfect world, the team would back up a Brinks truck for someone like Devin McCourty this offseason. In the real world, the front office will probably aim a little lower if they turn to free agency. Jeron Johnson, who is scheduled to hit the open market one year after he signed a restricted free agent tender with the Seahawks, could be one potential target. New GM McCloughan was in Seattle’s scouting department when Johnson was first signed as a UDFA, so there’s a definite connection there. Rahim Moore, who just turned 25 last week, is one of the Broncos’ many free agents (unrestricted) and could be another possibility. In the draft, Landon Collins could be on the radar when it’s Washington’s turn at No. 5.

Ryan Kerrigan had a breakout year for Washington last season but Brian Orakpo wasn’t able to deliver an encore of his 2013 performance on the other side. While Kerrigan impressed with 51 tackles, 13.5 sacks, and 5 forced fumbles, the team’s pass rush as a whole left much to be desired. When Washington made Orakpo its highest-paid player with an $11.455MM deal (off of the franchise tender), the club had much higher hopes for him than an injury-riddled year that would be cut short by Week 7. The young Trent Murphy did the best he could in a starting role, but he likely won’t be asked to start again in 2015. With so many question marks surrounding Orakpo (a pending free agent), you can expect Washington to at least explore outside linebackers in free agency and possibly in the draft.

The offensive line will also be pretty high on the list of priorities for McCloughan & Co., as NFL Network’s Mike Mayock recently detailed in a conference call wtih reporters, including CSNWashington.com’s Tarik El-Bashir.

“Remember Scot McCloughan is in charge of the draft,” Mayock said. “His background tells you he’s a big-bodied guy. Offensive line and defensive line—big, strong guys. So where could they go [at No. 5 overall]? I think offensive line needs help. How they evaluate Morgan Moses and Spencer Long, who are both third-round picks from a year ago, is going to be important.”

Specifically, Mayock posited that there will be a need at right guard regardless of Long’s development as he enters his sophomore year. Mayock opined that at 32, Chris Chester‘s best football is behind him, necessitating a change. The metrics at Pro Football Focus seem to agree: Chester ranked as the No. 47 guard out of 81 qualified players at the position in 2014.

Key Free Agents

Last offseason, Washington decided that it wanted to see more out of Orakpo before making a lengthy and lucrative commitment. After seeing just seven weeks of regular season action from the veteran, it appears that the team made a smart choice. Now, the club has another difficult decision on its hands. Orakpo is eligible to hit the open market once again and, despite the uncertainty, he remains one of the most talented players at his position when he’s healthy. Using the tag on Orakpo again would be an option, theoretically, but that seems unlikely, as our own Luke Adams recently wrote. Time isn’t necessarily on Orakpo’s side as he approaches age 29 and, therefore, he’ll probably prioritize the best payday available to him. All things considered, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Washington let him go elsewhere.

In his five games (four starts) in 2014, quarterback Colt McCoy posted respectable numbers, completing 71.1% of his passes for 1,057 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions. Now, he’ll likely be looking for a pay raise as he approaches the open market. Assuming Washington sticks with Robert Griffin III under center (and even if they don’t), the organization has learned the value of having a quality No. 2 signal caller on the depth chart. Another team could certainly outbid Washington, but with plenty of breathing room under the cap, it would make sense for the club that drafted RGIII in 2012 to retain the University of Texas product.

Speaking of valuable understudies, tight end Niles Paul became quite an important player in Washington’s passing game last season. With Jordan Reed struggling through injuries, Paul filled in capably and posted some impressive stat lines, particularly in the early going. Paul may be a bit undersized for the position at 6’1″, but you can expect teams to circle the wagons around him regardless if he hits the open market.

On defense, it’s a little tricky to get a read on the aforementioned safety situation. After turning in a year that disappointing by any measure, Clark probably won’t be welcomed back. Meriweather, on the other hand, could be a consideration depending on how things break in the secondary.

Longtime Washington back Roy Helu could wind up elsewhere to infuriate fantasy owners everywhere. Veteran Santana Moss, who has been a huge part of the organization for years, is determined to continue playing but he could be donning colors besides burgundy and gold for the first time since 2004.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

As we detailed earlier, the offensive line is definitely an area of importance for Washington. With that in mind, the club could seek to work out an extension with tackle Trent Williams. Injuries and all, Williams figures to be a sought-after commodity after the 2015 season when he’s eligible to hit the open market. A new deal won’t be cheap, but it’s also not easy to replace a young, dominant tackle like Williams, who turns 27 in July.

The team has to decide by May 3rd whether to extend RGIII through the 2016 season. Not long ago, that seemed like an absolute no-brainer of a move. Now? – That’s a dilly of a pickle, as longtime NFL aficionado Ned Flanders would say. Last season, the one-time face of the franchise was benched in favor of McCoy and only regained his starting gig when he was placed on IR. Despite his adamant public statements to the contrary, it’s widely believed that Coach Gruden is not a huge fan of RGIII. Rather than pick up the costly option, owner Dan Snyder might be okay with rolling the dice on Griffin in ’15. Of course, if Snyder does not subscribe to the idea of the sunk cost fallacy, he might have a hard time doing that after Washington gave up a fortune to draft the young signal-caller just a few years ago.

Running back Alfred Morris, earning a pittance of a salary, is entering his walk year and could certainly be an extension candidate. Kerrigan, coming off of a breakout season, will earn a $7.038MM salary in 2015 after the team exercised his fifth-year option in May of last year. Of course, as a former first-round pick, it wasn’t a total shock to see him put everything together at this stage of his career. Washington has watched Kerrigan bust his behind each and every season and that should give them confidence that he’ll continue to trend upward.

Overall Outlook

After a 4-12 season, no one will accuse 2014’s NFC East cellar-dwellers of looking like world beaters. Still, in a division that looks relatively wide open, there’s no reason why Washington can’t get back on the right path in 2015. Armed with a host of high draft picks and a healthy amount of cap space, the team could be poised to pull off an impressive turnaround with the right offseason moves.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

4 comments Offseason Outlook PFR Originals Washington Commanders

Free Agent Market For Kickers/Punters

By | at February 17, 2015 5:01 pm

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to kickers and punters. Let’s dive in….

Kickers:

Gostkowski is perhaps the most notable name on this year’s list of free agent kickers, and for all the talk about the Patriots’ willingness to move on from high-priced players earlier than expected, the team has only really employed two kickers – Gostkowski and Adam Vinatieri – since 1996. If the Pats see a young prospect they like that would cost a fraction of Gostkowski’s salary, I’d fully expect them to move on, particularly with a couple other notable players to retain. But the club has been willing to pay its kicker like one of the league’s best ($3.4MM annually) in recent years, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see that continue.

As restricted free agents who have been very effective in their first three seasons, Tucker and Forbath almost certainly aren’t going anywhere, but we could see some movement with the rest of the group. Succop, Prater, and Feely joined their current teams in 2014, so there’s not much history there. They’re more likely to switch teams than guys like Bryant and Nugent, who have been with their respective clubs for a few seasons now.

Besides Gostkowski and perhaps Bryant, none of these guys should be among the league’s most highly-paid kickers, though Tucker could join those ranks soon — his status as a restricted free agent should keep his salary modest for one more season, but if Baltimore wants to work out something longer-term, it figures to cost $3MM+ per year. Tucker’s conversion percentage dipped a little last season, but his five missed attempts all came from 50+ yards.

Punters:

No position will have less drama during this free agent period than punter. As restricted free agents, Jones and King likely aren’t going anywhere as long as their teams want them back, which seems like a reasonable bet. McBriar probably won’t return to San Diego if injured starter Mike Scifres is ready to go for training camp. That leaves Kern, whose performance last season was certainly strong enough to warrant interest from rival suitors — it’s just a matter of finding an opening. If the Titans haven’t gotten anything done with their punter by March 10, expect clubs looking for an upgrade at the position to kick the tires on him.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

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Free Agent Market For Centers/Guards

By | at February 16, 2015 1:01 pm

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to interior offensive linemen — centers and guards. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

This year’s class of interior lineman has a little something for everyone, including top-notch guards (Iupati, Franklin) and centers (Hudson, Wisniewski). There’s also a nice mix of experienced veterans, such as Sims and Montgomery, and younger players who could still have room to improve — Boling and Carpenter fit this bill.

Iupati is probably the best bet to land the biggest contract of this group, but Hudson, Boling, or even Wisniewski could give him a run. Those players should be the targets for teams looking to find a long-term answer at a certain position. Veterans like De La Puente and Sims, on the other hand, should come cheaper, and on a shorter term. They’d be nice stopgap solutions for teams looking to contend right away, or clubs developing a draftee that isn’t quite ready to start.

As teams figure out which of these linemen to target, it’s also worth considering their strengths and weaknesses. Iupati, Boling, Wisniewski, and Berger are among the guys here who received significantly better run-blocking grades than pass-blocking grades in 2014, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Carpenter and Montgomery, meanwhile, were better pass blockers than run blockers, while Hudson and Franklin were equally solid in both facets of the game.

Other unrestricted options:

While this list mostly consists of depth options, there are certainly plenty of players here with starting experience — it’s simply a question of whether they’re the type of players you’d want to have in your starting lineup. For instance, Colledge, Joseph, McGlynn, and Pears all saw more than 750 offensive snaps for their respective teams in 2014. They also all placed within the bottom five guards in the league, out of 78 qualified players, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Colon, Connolly, Ducasse, and Jerry were also among the NFL’s bottom 20 guards last year, according to PFF.

That doesn’t mean some of those players might not be effective in 2015 — Jerry and Colon are among the players who had respectable seasons in 2013 before a precipitous drop-off last year. And even if Connolly wasn’t the reliable inside force he had been in past years, he was still a starter for the Super Bowl champions.

Late-30s guys like Raiola and Goodwin should also provide passable short-term production and will be available on one-year contracts, and you could certainly do worse than having a veteran like Satele or Linkenbach as a depth piece. This group may not feature many exciting names – if such a thing is even possible for a center or guard – but for clubs in need of a reliable backup or two, there are plenty of options here.

Restricted FAs:

We haven’t really seen enough from most of these players to know whether or not they’d hold their own if forced into more significant roles, but Schilling was decent in limited action for the Seahawks last year, and Shipley posted a very solid +5.7 grade for the Colts in 440 snaps, per PFF (subscription required). Those two players – particularly Shipley – are the best bets to receive RFA tenders, but otherwise I anticipate we’ll see these guys re-sign for lesser salaries or land modest deals with new teams.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

0 comments 2015 Free Agent Market Series 2015 Free Agents PFR Originals

Free Agent Market For Offensive Tackles

By | at February 15, 2015 8:29 pm

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to offensive tackles. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

A year ago, the free agent class of offensive tackles included a handful of solid left tackles, including Branden Albert, Eugene Monroe, and Jared Veldheer, whose new deals all exceeded $35MM in total value. This time around, it would be a surprise if any tackles signed for that much, but it’s not out of the question.

Roos and Dunlap have shown they’re capable of protecting a quarterback’s blind side, and while Roos may very well end up retiring, Dunlap should do well in free agency, assuming he makes it there. Still, it may be Bulaga, a right tackle, who lands the biggest payday of this year’s class. The Packers lineman, who was recently profiled by our Rory Parks, turns just 26 next month, and is coming off a very strong year. While teams may be reluctant to try him on the left side, his new deal should rival the top contracts signed by right tackles.

Newton, Free, Barksdale, and Harris all played right tackle in 2014 as well, and their performances ranged from solid to above-average. Like Bulaga, they may not be trusted to protect a signal-caller’s blind side, but teams looking for stability on the right side should be interested. As for Bell, he’s the trickiest case among this group — he has been a starter for a playoff team in Carolina in each of the last two seasons, but his Pro Football Focus grades weren’t great on the right side and were even worse on the left in 2014 (subscription required). He should find a starting job, but perhaps for a more modest salary than some others on this list.

Other unrestricted options:

If a club targeting an offensive tackle in free agency misses out on a player in our first tier, it may make sense to wait for the draft rather than relying on a player from this group to be a starter. By my count, Oher was the only player here to see more than 600 offensive snaps in 2014, and he was quickly cut by the Titans, who signed him less than a year ago.

Still, there’s a little potential here. Parnell hasn’t seen the field much, acting as a reserve on the NFL’s best offensive line in Dallas, but he has done well with the playing time he has received, and another team may envision a larger role for him. Fox, Reitz, and Winston are among the other players who should be able to provide respectable production in the event of injuries to starters.

For the most part, the players in this group will be signed as the third or fourth tackle on a team’s depth chart, and won’t be relied upon to play major roles in 2015.

Restricted FAs:

Barclay represents the most intriguing name in this group — he started at right tackle for the Packers in 2013, but missed the entire 2014 campaign with an ACL injury. Green Bay has to make a decision on 2014’s right tackle (Bulaga) as well, and it seems logical that the club will keep one or the other. If the club manages to work out a deal with Bulaga, Barclay could garner some interest as a bounce-back candidate.

The Vikings’ Harris filled in at right tackle for the team down the stretch and was solid, so I expect Minnesota to retain him, even if he heads back to the bench. Sowell and New Orleans’ Harris don’t figure to receive RFA tenders.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

0 comments 2015 Free Agent Market Series 2015 Free Agents PFR Originals

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Bengals

By | at February 15, 2015 3:40 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. A.J. Green, WR: $10,176,000
  2. Leon Hall, CB: $9,600,000
  3. Andy Dalton, QB: $9,600,000
  4. Geno Atkins, DT: $9,000,000
  5. Andre Smith, T: $6,362,500
  6. Andrew Whitworth, T: $6,200,000
  7. Vontaze Burfict, LB: $5,175,000
  8. Carlos Dunlap, DE: $4,900,000
  9. Reggie Nelson, S: $4,775,000
  10. Domata Peko, DT: $3,700,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 21 overall pick
  • No traded draft picks

Other:

Overview

For the fourth straight season, the Bengals, head coach Marvin Lewis, and quarterback Andy Dalton finished better than .500 and earned a postseason berth. And for the fourth straight season, Cincinnati was eliminated in the wild card round, this time via a 26-10 loss to Andrew Luck and the Colts. As such, it’s hard to qualify the 2014 Bengals season as either a success or a failure — instead, Cincinnati seems to be stuck in some kind of middle ground, good enough to have a high floor, but flawed enough that they’ll never reach a higher ceiling.A.J. Green

Under new coordinator Hue Jackson, the Bengals’ offense never really took off — although the freshly-extended Dalton completed a career-high 64.2% of his passes, he still threw 17 interceptions against just 19 touchdowns, finishing as the 21st-best QB in the league per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). In his defense, Dalton didn’t have many options to throw to, as Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert combined to appear in one game, while A.J. Green, Jermaine Gresham, and Giovani Bernard missed significant time dealing with their own injuries. While rookie running back Jeremy Hill was a bright spot, rushing for more than 1,100 yards and nine touchdowns, the offense was below-average as a whole, finishing 21st in DVOA.

The more surprising regression occurred on defense, where the Paul Guenther-led unit fell from the No. 5 DVOA ranking in 2013 to 14th last season. Some of that fall could be attributed to the loss of former DC Mike Zimmer, who took the Vikings’ head coaching job, but injuries also plagued the defense. Star linebacker Vontaze Burfict dealt with numerous ailments throughout the year, and ultimately played in just five games. Defensive tackle Geno Atkins, dominant until tearing his ACL in 2013, never looked fully healthy. The unit also failed to generate any sort of pass rush, finishing last in the league with just 20 sacks.

Key Free Agents

The Bengals’ crop of pending free agents is primarily made up of role players, but there are three FAs who have been significant factors in recent years. Tight end Jermaine Gresham, a first-round selection in 2010, caught 62 passes for 460 yards and five touchdowns last year, but wasn’t a great blocker in either the pass or the run game. Reports at the end of the season indicated that teammates were upset with Gresham’s inability to play through pain, and while that might not factor into Cincinnati’s thinking, it doesn’t help his chances of being re-signed. He’s never been a great fit for the Cincinnati offense, and given that Eifert will look to take on a larger role in 2015, Gresham probably won’t return.

On the other hand, guard Clint Boling should be retained, as he’s started 44 games during the past three seasons, becoming a key cog on an excellent offensive line. The 2011 fourth-round pick finished as PFF’s No. 19 overall guard among 81 qualifiers, especially excelling in the run game. The Bengals tend to re-sign their own contributors who perform well, so Boling should be brought back on a multi-year pact, probably on a ~$4MM salary.

Linebacker Rey Maualuga is the third key free agent on the Bengals’ to-do list this offseason. He’s been consistently average during his career — nothing more, nothing less. But he’s solid against the run, knows the scheme after starting 84 games during his career, and has the ability to fill in at middle linebacker if Burfict is out. The 28-year-old might be allowed to test the market, but if he doesn’t find a deal in free agency, he’ll likely be back in the Queen City on a one-year deal.

Terence Newman‘s role had been diminished by the end of the season, and the 36-year-old would probably have to accept a role as the No. 4 CB to return in 2015. Marshall Newhouse struggled mightily while filling in for Andre Smith at right tackle, so much so that veteran Eric Winston was brought near the end of the year — the latter could be retained, but the former won’t be. Jason Campbell could be re-signed to compete with A.J. McCarron for the backup quarterback job, but receiver Brandon Tate will probably be let go as the Bengals search for a more dynamic return man.

Possible Cap Casualties

Two defensive line mainstays — Domata Peko and Robert Geathers — are overwhelmingly likely to be released in the coming weeks. The 30-year-old Peko started all 16 games in 2014 but was extremely ineffective, finishing as the second-worst defensive tackle in the league per PFF. Due to count $3.7MM against the cap next year, Peko won’t leave any dead money on the Bengal’s books when he’s cut. Geathers, meanwhile, has become nothing more than a rotational lineman after spending 11 years in Cincinnati, and the team will save $3.05MM by cutting him.

Receiver Greg Little will also probably be cut, but his release will save the Bengals just $745K. Cincinnati has managed its cap well in recent years, so there aren’t many veteran contracts that need to be dealt with to create financial space. Moreover, the club already has more than $34MM in projected cap space to work with, so cutting role players to save a few dollars wouldn’t move the needle much.

Positions Of Need

The Bengals do have several positions where an infusion of talent via free agent additions could be helpful, but a disclaimer must be noted. Like the Packers in the NFC, Cincinnati simply doesn’t spend on free agents, no matter how much cap space it has. In the late 2000s, the Bengals signed one major free agent per season: Antwan Odom in ’08, Laveranues Coles in ’09, and Antonio Bryant in ’10. Each of those signees was a major bust, and the Bengals have retreated from the open market ever since. They added role players like Nate Clements (2011) and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (2012), signed no free agents until late April in 2013, and added only veteran depth in the form of Newhouse and Danieal Manning prior to 2014.

This could be the year for the Bengals to dip their toe into free agency, however — armed with the aforementioned $34.63MM of cap space, Cincinnati could take advantage of a free agent class that is well-stocked with players at its positions of need. First and foremost is pass-rusher, where the Bengals need a viable starter to line up opposite Carlos Dunlap. Greg Hardy could be the perfect fit for the club’s 4-3 defense, and the Bengals have shown a willingness to deal with players with off-the-field issues in the past. The Panthers haven’t shown any interest in retaining Hardy, and even though charges against him were recently dismissed, he could face a depressed market due to his baggage. Jason Pierre-Paul, Jerry Hughes, and Brandon Graham could also present options at defensive end, but each will likely require a long-term deal with a hefty guarantee. More likely, Cincinnati will go bargain-hunting, meaning players like Derrick Morgan, Adrian Clayborn, or even Dwight Freeney could be on the table.

Help along the interior defensive line could be just as key to generating a pass rush, and if Peko and Geathers both go, defensive tackle could another area to target in free agency. Cincinnati won’t be players for the top DTs available like Ndamukong Suh, Terrance Knighton, or Nick Fairley. But someone like Henry Melton, who recently had his option declined by the Cowboys, could be a fit for the Bengals, as could Lions FA C.J. Mosley, who finished as the No. 26 DT per PFF after filling in for an injured Fairley.

Next up on Cincinnati’s to-do list should be tight end, where Gresham will likely leave via free agency, and Eifert will be question mark heading into his third season. ESPN.com’s Coley Harvey has pushed the idea of the Bengals signing Jordan Cameron, who would add a different dimension to Cincinnati’s offense. I like the fit, but Cincy probably won’t commit to a player with such injury history unless it’s on a one-year deal. I think Charles Clay would make some sense for the Bengals, but he would offer production similar to what the team hopes they can get from Eifert. More likely, the Bengals will add a strong blocking TE to replace Gresham, so Virgil Green or Matt Spaeth could be options.

The Bengals could also look to make an addition at either wide receiver or offensive tackle. At receiver, the team is stocked with a lot of talent in Green, Jones, and Mohamed Sanu, but as was clear when injuries struck last season, there isn’t much in the way of depth. None of the big-name pass-catcher make sense given that the club will likely be paying Green a large salary in due time, but reserves like Eddie Royal, Vincent Brown, or Leonard Hankerson could be intriguing adds. Along the front five, Harvey wrote yesterday that Winston will likely be back as the swing tackle, but if the Bengals want someone who can play the interior as well, a veteran such as Adam Snyder or Gabe Carimi could be in the cards.

I also expect the Bengals to make additions to shore up the linebacking corps, especially in the wake of Burfict’s lost 2014. Maualuga could be re-signed, but I’d guess the rest of the LB reinforcements will come through the draft.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The single most pressing issue on the Bengals’ table is the contract status of Green. Cincinnati exercised his fifth-year option for 2015, so the 26-year-old will play under a one-year, $10.176MM deal. As Paul Dehner Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently outlined, the Bengals could conceivably slap the franchise tag on Green in 2016 for a cost of ~$14MM, and then do so again in 2017 for approximately $16MM. Obviously, this isn’t the ideal situation, as the cap hits would be high, and Green would presumably be disgruntled. A long-term extension that pays Green like a true No. 1 receiver ($12-14MM AAV) would be best for both sides, but Green’s reps probably want to wait and see if Dez Bryant or Demaryius Thomas are able to reach free agency and break the bank, therefore setting a baseline for contract talks.

The Bengals have another crop of players under contract only through 2015, such as tackles Andrew Whitworth and Andre Smith and safeties George Iloka and Reggie Nelson. Whitworth will probably retire as a Bengal, so a deal to secure that future is in order, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Cincinnati lets Smith walk. Both safeties should garner new contracts, but I’d expect Iloka, who was quietly the 12th-best safety in the league per PFF, to be the priority.

Cincinnati will also have to decide on a pair of fifth-year options, as 2012 first-rounders Kevin Zeitler and Dre Kirkpatrick near the end of their rookie deals. Zeitler is a no-brainer to be exercised, as he’s been nothing but solid at right guard; he’s another candidate for a long-term extension. Kirkpatrick is more complicated — he played well late last season, but contributed next to nothing during his first two years in the league. The Bengals would love to have another season by which to gauge the 25-year-old corner, but as they don’t have that luxury, I’d guess they pick up his option and hope for the best.

Overall Outlook

To say the least, 2015 is an absolutely crucial season for the Bengals. If the club fails to win playoff game (or misses the postseason altogether), I’d expect owner Mike Brown & Co. to take a serious look at “blowing things up.” Lewis likely won’t stick around if the team loses in the first round once again, and even Dalton’s future would be uncertain, as 2016 marks the first year in which Cincinnati could release its quarterback and save money against the cap. For now, the Bengals need to lock up its star pass-catcher in Green, and look into long-term deals with the rest of its young core. As I noted, Cincinnati never plays the free agency game, but with so much on the line, it’s fair to wonder if this is the offseason where the Bengals spend some money on the open market.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason Outlook: Buffalo Bills

By | at February 15, 2015 1:15 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Mario Williams, DE: $19,400,000
  2. Marcell Dareus, DT: $8,060,000
  3. Eric Wood, C: $6,650,000
  4. Kyle Williams, DT: $6,400,000
  5. Leodis McKelvin, CB: $4,900,000
  6. Sammy Watkins, WR: $4,530,819
  7. Corey Graham, CB: $4,450,000
  8. Aaron Williams, S: $3,900,000
  9. Stephon Gilmore, CB: $3,844,957
  10. Kraig Urbik, G: $3,750,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

The Bills made strides in 2014, amassing their first nine-win output in a decade, but they extended their playoff drought to an NFL-worst 15 years and went another season with a subpar offense and no solution at quarterback.

Buffalo finished above .500 and placed second in the AFC East almost solely on the strength of its defense, which led the league in sacks (54) and was top five in turnovers, points allowed and yardage surrendered. That helped lead to a second overall mark in Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings.

Conversely, the Bills’ offense ended up toward the bottom half of the league in points (18th), yards (26th) and DVOA (26th). The unit was neither strong through the air nor on the ground, with journeyman quarterback Kyle Orton and a cadre of running backs producing to underwhelming degrees behind a porous line.Rex Ryan (Featured)

Coaching Changes:

The Bills’ offseason began in entropic fashion with the abrupt departure of head coach Doug Marrone, who went 15-17 in Buffalo in his two years there and then took advantage of a $4 million opt-out clause in his contract. That forced the Bills, led by new owners Terry and Kim Pegula, along with general manager Doug Whaley, to undertake their sixth head coaching search since 2000. After an arduous interview process, the Bills hired Rex Ryan, who coached the division-rival Jets from 2009-14 and went 46-50 with two playoff appearances.

Ryan’s first order of business was to replace Marrone’s much-maligned offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett. Ryan opted for Greg Roman, who held the same position with the 49ers from 2011-14. He then appointed Dennis Thurman to take over a defense that Jim Schwartz ran with great effectiveness last year. Thurman was on Ryan’s staff in New York during Ryan’s entire tenure with the Jets, and Thurman held the D-coordinator position there the previous two campaigns.

The defensive-minded Ryan and his cohort Thurman should acquit themselves well atop one of the league’s most talented stop units. Roman, however, will have his work cut out for him to improve an offense that has been mostly woeful the last decade and a half, and was the primary reason the Bills missed the postseason in 2014.

Positions Of Need:

Not surprisingly, the Bills’ biggest weaknesses lie on offense. Their main source of trouble is under center. Orton unexpectedly retired after the season, which means two-year veteran E.J. Manuel is currently the Bills’ No. 1 QB by default. Manuel, whom the Bills chose 16th overall in the 2013 draft, has disappointed so far and the team is expected to at least seek competition for him this offseason. The problem is that capable competition could be difficult to find.

Mark Sanchez is the preeminent free agent QB available, and he was Ryan’s starter in New York throughout the majority of the duo’s time there. However, the ex-USC star’s half-decade with the Jets was riddled with ignominy. The 28-year-old experienced mild success with the Eagles last season as Nick Foles‘ backup, but Sanchez’s history suggests he’s a poor starter. He and Ryan still have an amicable relationship, though, and when you combine that with the Bills’ dire QB situation, there’s a chance the two could reunite. Furthering the possibility is that the rest of the free agent class is even less appealing than Sanchez (Brian Hoyer, Jake Locker and Josh McCown lead the way), the Bills don’t have a first-round pick to find another signal-caller, and the trade market isn’t expected to bear much fruit.

Regardless of the path the Bills take at QB, it’s imperative they ameliorate an offensive line that was near the bottom last season. Pro Football Focus ranked the Bills’ O-line 30th overall in 2014, with particularly lousy grades going to right side starters Erik Pears (guard) and Seantrel Henderson (tackle). Left tackle Cordy Glenn and center Eric Wood will keep their jobs, and the newly-signed, controversial Richie Incognito is expected to take the reins at one of the guard spots adjacent to Wood. That still leaves two areas of clear concern (LG or RG and RT). The 49ers’ Mike Iupati will be the premier free agent guard available, and he’s surely familiar with Roman from the pair’s time in San Francisco. It would make sense for the Bills to court Iupati (or Orlando Franklin or Clint Boling, to name a couple more) and one of the right tackle upgrades set to hit the market, including Bryan Bulaga, Doug Free and Joe Barksdale.

Fixing the holes along the line will help Buffalo’s rushing attack, which finished 25th in the league in yardage last year, but there’s a chance that next season’s starting running back isn’t even on the roster. Although Fred Jackson has been a reliable producer for the Bills since 2007, he’s coming off the worst rushing season of his eight-year career and will turn 34 later this month. Jackson is the oldest back in the league and probably shouldn’t be viewed as any kind of a solution at this point. The same lack of confidence is applicable to teammates Anthony Dixon, who’s a short-yardage specialist and an adept special teamer, and Bryce Brown, who failed to impress in his first season with the Bills after they acquired him from the Eagles.

Whether the Bills go with some combination of Jackson, Dixon and Brown in 2015, try to re-sign free agent-to-be C.J. Spiller (who, like Jackson, is coming off his worst season) or bring in an outsider, they’re going to have to establish a running game. That’s something Ryan’s Jets and Roman’s 49ers did throughout their respective tenures, and, given the Bills’ imperfect QB situation, it’s something they’ll have to achieve again for Buffalo to have a playoff shot next season.

Defensively, the Bills’ needs are much less serious, although their No. 1 free agent – end Jerry Hughes – resides on that side of the ball. Hughes has accumulated 19.5 sacks during his two years as a Bill and has been an excellent complement to his fellow starting linemen, Pro Bowlers Mario Williams, Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus. Whaley has expressed interest in re-signing Hughes, according to the team’s official website, but there’s a chance Buffalo is averse to breaking the bank on him when it already has three outstanding D-linemen and various other positions to address. What’s more, the price to franchise tag Hughes will be steep (upward of $14MM, perhaps), and our own Luke Adams doesn’t expect the Bills to apply the tag to Hughes

If the Bills do sign a noteworthy defender and it’s not Hughes, two of Ryan’s ex-players are obvious candidates.

The first is Patriots cornerback Darrelle Revis. The 29-year-old spent four seasons under Ryan as a Jet, and ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweeted earlier this month that Ryan will try to lure Revis to Buffalo if he hits free agency. However, the Bills already have three able corners in Stephon Gilmore, Leodis McKelvin and Corey Graham. That trio helped the Bills’ defense finish last season ranked third overall in passing yardage allowed and sixth in interceptions. Revis is on another level than Gilmore, McKelvin and Graham, to be sure. Nevertheless, one has to wonder if he’s worth a mega-deal to a team that’s already sturdy against the pass – especially a team with so many offensive issues in need of attention.

The Bills could also explore signing linebacker David Harris, an eight-year Jet whom Ryan called “the most underrated player in the league” last June. Harris then proceeded to play a staggering 99% of defensive snaps for Ryan a season ago. With Ryan being a 3-4-oriented coach, the Bills will need another LB to join entrenched starters Kiko Alonso, Preston Brown and Nigel Bradham. It’s feasible, therefore, to imagine Ryan and Harris transferring their partnership from New York to Buffalo.

Key Free Agents:

The Bills are likely to lose some parts of last year’s defense to free agency. Hughes and two other starters (middle linebacker Brandon Spikes and strong safety Da’Norris Searcy) could end up on the market.

Spikes is known as a gifted run stopper who has difficulty against the pass, which explains why he played just 46.4% of Buffalo’s defensive snaps last season. Whether Spikes returns to Buffalo may depend on whether Ryan wants him to. Signing Harris would seal Spikes’ fate with the Bills and send him looking for work elsewhere.

Searcy had a respectable ’14, playing nearly 60% of snaps with 13 starts, 65 tackles and three interceptions. However, the Bills might view Searcy as expendable and save cap space by letting him walk and plugging in Duke Williams, who played almost half the team’s defensive snaps as a second-year man.

Offensively, aside from the aforementioned Spiller, the Bills aren’t in danger of losing anyone that recognizable. The team will surely move on from Pears after his dreadful season. Of more importance is the future of wide receiver Marcus Easley, a standout special teamer who helped the Bills finish top five in both kickoff and punt return yardage allowed last year. Easley’s play earned him a place on Pro Football Focus’ 2014 All-Pro special teams unit.

Possible Cap Casualties:

If the Bills cut guard Kraig Urbik, they’ll save $2.35MM on next season’s cap. That could happen, ESPN’s Mike Rodak tweeted recently. Another potential cap casualty is linebacker Keith Rivers, who played just 17.1% of defensive snaps last season. Releasing him by June 1 would give the Bills an extra $1.7MM of cap room.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions:

The Bills are conceivably a year from losing Dareus to free agency. The 331-pounder has emerged as a top-tier D-lineman since the Bills drafted him third overall in 2011. Over the last two years, Dareus has accrued 17.5 total sacks (including a career-best 10 last season), a pair of Pro Bowl bids and a First-Team All-Pro selection. He’ll make just over $8MM in the final year of his contract, and to retain him beyond then will cost the Bills a lot more. Dareus could be in line for a contract similar to the one the Buccaneers gave Gerald McCoy last October. McCoy signed a seven-year, $98MM pact with over $51MM in guarantees, the richest ever awarded to a D-tackle. When he signed, McCoy was a 26-year-old with two Pro Bowl nods and two All-Pro selections to his name. Dareus is of similar age (25 next month) and, like McCoy, highly accomplished.

Unfortunately for the Bills, Dareus isn’t their only impact lineman whose team-controlled status is nearing an end. Glenn, perhaps Buffalo’s foremost O-lineman, is also a season from free agency. Glenn was a bright spot on an abysmal line last season, according to Pro Football Focus – which gave him a positive rating – and has been both good and durable during his three-year career. The 25-year-old has appeared in 45 of a possible 48 regular-season games and started in all 45 of those contests. Glenn is not on Dareus’ level as a player and won’t be as expensive to retain, but the Bills aren’t in any position to let their young, effective left tackle depart anytime soon.

Along with Dareus and Glenn, Bradham is another up-and-comer on the Bills who’s closing in on free agency. Bradham is fresh off a breakout 2014 effort that saw him eclipse the 100-tackle plateau (104, to be exact) to go with 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception. As a result, Pro Football Focus named the ex-Florida State Seminole a reserve on its Pro Bowl team. Although Bradham, 25, is likely to be the least costly of the trio he makes up with Dareus and Glenn, he’s still a meaningful piece and his departure would hurt the Bills.

Less pressing than the statuses of Dareus, Glenn and Bradham is that of Gilmore. The Bills will have to decide by this May whether to pick up his fifth-year option for 2016. That option is the value of the highest-paid 25 players at the cornerback position, excluding the top three players. Barring something unforeseen, the team will likely exercise Gilmore’s option and keep its top corner in the fold for at least two more seasons.

Overall Outlook:

The bad news for Buffalo is that it’s unlikely to find anything resembling an answer at quarterback this offseason. That means a position that has vexed the Bills since Hall of Famer Jim Kelly retired in 1996 is likely to continue tormenting them in 2015. The good news is that the Bills are an above-average team with an above-average amount of cap room. If the Bills use that cap room shrewdly to augment the talent around their flawed QB (be it Manuel or someone else), and if Ryan and his staff prove superior to their predecessors, they could push for a playoff spot in 2015.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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