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Poll: Which Rookie WR Will Have Best Season?

August 21st, 2014 at 6:22pm CST by Zachary Links

They say there are some things you can’t teach in sports. One of them is size. Another is the ability to make a jaw-dropping one-handed catch after tripping just one second prior. Bills rookie wide receiver Sammy Watkins is lacking in the first department but he’s got the latter down pat.

With top-level speed, excellent agility, and soft hands, Watkins was almost universally regarded as the top WR talent in the 2014 class. So, he’s a lock to win this poll, right? Maybe not. Second-year quarterback EJ Manuel boasts a strong arm but he’s far from elite and one has to wonder how many quality balls he can deliver to Manuel. The Clemson product is also working through a rib injury which could possibly hamper him to start the season.

Moving further down the draft board, there are plenty of other wide receivers with an opportunity to make a name for themselves in year one. The Panthers overhauled their entire receiving corps this offseason and many are expecting big things out of FSU’s Kelvin Benjamin. In New Orleans, many are skeptical of what the once solid Marques Colston can do and the hype around Brandin Cooks is reaching a fever pitch. And, without DeSean Jackson, Jordan Matthews could see a lot of balls thrown his way in Philadelphia. Beyond those guys, there are even more promising WR’s from this year’s receiver-heavy draft. Who among them will have the best 2014 season?

Notable Remaining Veteran FAs: Defense

August 21st, 2014 at 10:33am CST by Luke Adams

Brett Keisel and Isaac Sopoaga both reached agreements with NFL clubs this week, with Keisel returning to Pittsburgh and Sopoaga reportedly heading to Arizona. The two signings further diminished the amount of veteran defensive talent remaining on the free agent market, but even so, there are a handful of intriguing names among the defenders still available.

After taking a look earlier this week at some of the notable veteran free agents on offense, we’ll turn our attention to the other side of the ball today. As I noted when writing about those offensive players, not all of these players will find work this season, and they’ll likely be joined by many more noteworthy free agents in the coming weeks, as NFL teams cut their rosters down from 90 players to 53. Still, these guys are worth keeping an eye on, since they’re still capable of having an impact on the field.

You can view our full list of current free agents right here, but for now, let’s focus on a few interesting veteran defenders….

Defensive ends: Jason Hunter, Daniel Te’o-Nesheim

The pickings are awfully slim at defensive end, where Hunter and Te’o-Nesheim are the only two free agents who were regular starters last season for their respective teams (the Raiders and Buccaneers). According to Pro Football Focus’ metrics (subscription required), both players graded among the bottom five 4-3 defensive ends in the NFL last season, with Te’o-Nesheim ranking dead last, so perhaps it’s not a surprise that we haven’t heard any reports of interest in the two players since they hit free agency.

Defensive tackles: Aubrayo Franklin, Johnny Jolly, Vaughn Martin, Ryan Pickett, Shaun Rogers

Even after Keisel and Sopoaga found work, there are still some decent options on the defensive tackle market. Players like Franklin, Jolly, and Pickett are somewhat one-dimesional, providing size in the middle and not much else, but in a part-time role, such a player can have value. As for Rogers, he was playing well in a part-time role in 2013 before a knee injury ended his season, but having missed most of the last two years with various ailments, the former Pro Bowler’s playing career seems to be nearing its end.

Outside linebackers: Michael Boley, James Harrison, Rocky McIntosh, Marvin Mitchell, Stephen Nicholas, Will Witherspoon

Harrison’s is the name that stands out on this list, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s in a Steelers-or-bust mindset at this point. He was effective last season in Cincinnati, but it was the first and only time in his 11-year NFL career that he’d played for a team besides the Steelers, and reports this offseason have suggested he’d like to return to Pittsburgh. We’ll have to see if, like they did with Keisel, the Steelers can get something done with a defender who has spent more than a decade with the club.

The rest of this group is mostly made up of former starters who have transitioned into reserve roles — Boley, McIntosh, Nicholas, and Witherspoon have 384 combined career starts on their résumés, but just seven of those came in 2013. Mitchell, meanwhile, started 10 games for the Vikings last season and played reasonably well in part-time action, so I’m a little surprised he hasn’t drawn more interest this offseason. The Titans kicked the tires back in June, but elected not sign him.

Inside linebackers: Nick Barnett, Kevin Burnett, Erin Henderson, Paris Lenon, Ernie Sims, Jonathan Vilma

A handful of teams have seen key linebackers go down with serious injuries in recent weeks, but this group of free agents still hasn’t received a whole lot of interest. The Cardinals signed and later released Sims, and the Cowboys and Falcons have both been linked to Vilma, but the fact that those guys aren’t on rosters now suggest teams may not have confidence in them as regular contributors anymore, opting for younger, cheaper players instead. The same may be true for Barnett and Lenon, though any of those veterans could still get a look in the coming weeks.

Henderson may be the player here capable of contributing the most on the field, but his off-field issues may keep him out of the league this season — multiple arrests since and a rehab stint since last fall mean he could be facing a suspension if and when he resurfaces. As for Burnett, he probably shouldn’t be logging the 1,000+ snaps he did last season, and it doesn’t seem as if he’s fully healthy – the Raiders cut him last month with a failed physical designation – but as Pro Football Focus’ data shows (subscription required), he can be a valuable asset against the run.

Cornerbacks: Drayton Florence, Jabari Greer, Chris Houston, Quentin Jammer, Dunta Robinson, Asante Samuel

While there are plenty of questions about injuries and declining performance among this group, experience certainly isn’t a problem — these six players have started an average of 117 games each in their NFL careers. With several teams around the league already on the lookout for cornerbacks, it wouldn’t be surprising if many of these guys were snatched up in the near future to provide some secondary stability. Still, it’s not clear whether all of them have interest in returning to the field in 2014. Greer and Houston are still on the mend following major injuries, and Samuel reportedly turned down overtures from the Jets recently.

Safeties: Reed Doughty, Matt Giordano, Michael Huff, Quintin Mikell, Ed Reed

Doughty has spent his entire eight-year career with the Redskins, starting 45 games over the last five seasons, but last we heard, the team hasn’t reached out to him, and he doesn’t seem to be receiving interest from other clubs either. And although Giordano and Huff aren’t far removed from seasons as significant contributors, they’re probably both better suited for reserve roles now.

Mikell, a former Pro Bowler and a regular starter for the last seven seasons, is the most notable name of this bunch, having ranked 31st among 86 qualified safeties last season, per Pro Football Focus’ grades (subscription required). However, he’s coming off foot surgery and is mulling retirement, suggesting last week that it would have to be the “right situation” for him to return. The same can probably be said for Reed, who hasn’t announced his retirement but already seems to be transitioning into his post-playing career, having secured a job on Showtime’s Inside the NFL.

Notable Remaining Veteran FAs: Offense

August 19th, 2014 at 10:40am CST by Luke Adams

Santonio Holmes‘ deal with the Bears, which was finalized over the weekend, provided a reminder that there are still plenty of recognizable veteran free agents on the open market looking for jobs. That list figures to increase in a week or two, when roster cutdowns forcing teams into tough decisions — in a few cases, costly veterans will find themselves released, losing out on 53-man roster spots to younger, cheaper options.

Even now though, there are still a handful of names on the free agent market worth noting. It’s not clear if these guys will find work this season, but they’re players to keep an eye on, especially as injuries continue to pile up around the league, and clubs find themselves with gaping holes at specific positions.

You can view our full list of current veteran free agents right here, but for now let’s check in on a few names from that list….

Quarterbacks: David Carr, Josh Freeman

A pair of former first-round picks highlight a middling selection of free agent quarterbacks, and neither Carr nor Freeman should be a starting option at this point. Still, you could do worse than Carr as a backup — there were rumblings in the spring that he and his brother (Derek Carr) were hoping to land with the same team, but we haven’t heard any reports linking the veteran to the Raiders since then. Perhaps the 49ers, who are having problems finding a reliable backup this summer, could consider the possibility of bringing back Carr, who spent time in 2010 with the team.

As for Freeman, failed stops in Minnesota and New York (with the Giants) have put a damper on the idea that he just needed a change of scenery after leaving the Buccaneers. There’s still some upside there, but it may be fading.

Running backs: Andre Brown, Michael Bush, Willis McGahee

After flashing promise with the Giants, Brown struggled with fumbles and injuries last year, ultimately signing with the Texans as a free agent. However, he was a surprising cut last week, raising questions about his value. Bush and McGahee are more known commodities, but are both on the wrong side of 30. Although a team in need of running back depth could bring either of those players aboard at some point for some stability, it may make more sense to gamble on younger backs with higher ceilings.

Wide receivers: Jonathan Baldwin, Earl Bennett, Darius Johnson, Kevin Walter

With Holmes off the market, the group of free agent receivers looks thinner than ever. Baldwin’s production – which was middling to begin with – has declined every year since he was selected in the first round of the 2011 draft, and he recently failed a physical with the Lions. There are questions about Walter’s health as well, though he was a solid option before back problems sidelined him for the 2013 season.

Bennett, who has at least 24 receptions in each of the last five seasons, looks like the most reliable wideout on the market, but even the receiver-needy Browns decided to part ways with him this summer, which doesn’t reflect well on his current value. And while Johnson caught 22 balls for the Falcons last season, he’s undersized, and was arrested for DUI last month, so it’s not clear if any team will be willing to take a shot on him.

Tight ends: Joel Dreessen, Jermichael Finley, Dustin Keller

Of all the offensive positions, the free agents in this group may be the most intriguing, but they also come with the most health concerns. Dreessen, Finley, and Keller are all coming off significant injuries, so a team would have to be confident in their recoveries to take a flier on any of them. We haven’t heard much about Dreessen and Keller lately, but Finley at least is working toward a return, and would like to rejoin the Packers if they’re interested.

These three players may not be healthy enough to see the field in 2014, but if they can get back to 100%, they’re not far removed from solid seasons — Finley caught 61 balls in 2012, Dreessen caught 41 in the same year, and Keller hauled in 65 passes in 2011.

Tackles: Bryant McKinnie, Tony Pashos, David Stewart, Jeremy Trueblood

As Pro Football Focus’ data shows (subscription required), all four of these players saw significant playing time last season, and all four recorded negative grades. Still, only McKinnie’s numbers were egregiously bad. Pashos and Trueblood probably shouldn’t be relied upon as starters again, but teams in need of a swing tackle may snatch them up at some point within the next few weeks. As for Stewart, he played reasonably well for the Titans in 2013, but following his release in March, he indicated that he’ll likely end his playing career.

Interior linemen: David Baas, Mike Brisiel, Kyle Cook, Harvey Dahl, Richie Incognito

Incognito may be the most talented free agent on the board at any offensive position. Of course, it’s his reputation – and his involvement in last year’s Dolphins bullying scandal – that’s kept him off NFL rosters to this point, not his talent. At some point, a guard-needy team will likely be desperate enough to bring Incognito aboard.

Coming off a knee injury, Baas was reportedly approached by the Giants about taking a pay cut, but was ultimately released instead — the fact that New York was willing to keep him on board at a reduced rate could signal that he still has something left in the tank.

When the Raiders cut Brisiel in April, his agent confirmed the guard intended to continue his playing career, and he drew some interest from the Bears shortly thereafter. And while the Rams released Dahl in March, head coach Jeff Fisher suggested recently that the team hasn’t closed the door on the veteran’s return. Cook was also released earlier in the offseason, but started all 16 games at center for a solid Bengals team in 2013, and should draw interest at some point.

Extension Candidate: Torrey Smith

August 18th, 2014 at 10:45pm CST by Rory Parks

Torrey Smith, who was drafted by the Ravens with the 58th overall pick in the 2011 draft, is entering the final year of his rookie contract. Although he struggled with drops in his first training camp, he was given a chance to start against the Rams in Week 3 of his rookie season when veteran Lee Evans went down with an injury. In the first quarter in St. Louis, Smith recorded the first three receptions of his pro career; they all went for touchdowns.

Torrey Smith

Since then, Smith has established himself as Baltimore’s premier receiving threat. Even when he shared a field with Anquan Boldin, his speed and play-making ability was the element of the Ravens’ passing game that drew the most attention from opposing defenses. Last season, he set career highs in receptions (65) and yards (1,128) and boasted an impressive 17.4 yards per reception, which matched his 2012 mark and serves as a testament to his big play potential.

However, he has been referred to as a “one-trick pony,” with his one trick being his ability to blow past opposing corners on deep routes. Although that assessment may be somewhat harsh, his route running has not developed as much as the team would like and his hands still let him down on occasion (though he has demonstrated marked improvement in each of those areas over the course of his first several seasons in the league). For what it’s worth, he also ranked as the 76th-best receiver out of 108 eligible wideouts, according to Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required).

As such, it is difficult to put a finger on what an extension for Smith might look like. 2014 will be a defining season for a number of Ravens’ offensive players, as the unit will now be guided by the West Coast leanings of respected offensive mind Gary Kubiak, who is being treated as something of a savior among Baltimore fans. If Smith demonstrates continued improvement in his raw statistics while also showing advancements in his route running ability–indeed, Kubiak’s offense will require proficiency in short and intermediate routes, even if he takes a few shots downfield every game–he will be in line for a huge payday (think something along the lines of the five-year, $60MM deal Mike Wallace signed last season). If, on the other hand, he stagnates a bit, he will still be paid handsomely, but his new contract would likely keep him in the second or third tier of receivers. Something akin to the five-year, $42.5MM deal that Antonio Brown signed in July 2012 would probably be a reasonable benchmark.

Back in March, we learned that the Ravens made it known that a new contract for Smith was a priority, and Smith indicated that the feeling was mutual. Smith, who grew up in Virginia and went on to star at the University of Maryland, is not a true No. 1 receiver just yet. However, he is far and away the closest thing to a No. 1 that the Ravens have ever drafted, he has come up with a number of clutch catches, and he has been a consistent and positive presence in the Baltimore community. It is understandable, then, why both parties have interest in getting something done.

At this point, though, it does not appear that a new deal will be reached until the 2014 season is over. Although we do not know what offers the team has previously extended to Smith, it could be that, like his teammate Joe Flacco in 2012, Smith is “betting on himself” this year. With Steve Smith playing opposite him and a top-flight offensive coordinator on board–not to mention new wide receivers coach Bobby Engram, who, in his playing career, excelled in the areas where Smith still struggles–the conditions are perfect for Smith to take the proverbial next step and land a mega-deal in the process. The Ravens would probably be glad to meet his price if he does so, even if that price makes Smith one of the richest wideouts in the league.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Extension Candidate: Charles Clay

August 17th, 2014 at 7:36pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Given that later rounds of the NFL draft tend to be crapshoots, the success of two players selected in the sixth round of the 2011 draft is something at which to marvel. The more notable player, chosen with pick No. 191, is Eagles center Jason Kelce. The former Cincinnati Bearcat, now regarded as one of the best centers in the league, was signed to a six-year, $37.5MM extension in February.Charles Clay

Chosen 17 picks before Kelce was a slightly more anonymous player — tight end Charles Clay. Clay, 25, is not only entering the his fourth season with the Dolphins, but the final year of his rookie contract. As such, he could be a candidate for a new deal that, if not equal to the length and/or compensation of Kelce, more correctly aligns with his production. In fact, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports that Clay’s agent has approached the Dolphins about an extension, but the talks haven’t led to any serious negotiations.

Clay entered the league three years ago after playing college ball at Tulsa. During his rookie season, he displayed versatility by spending time at both tight end and fullback, but finished with just 16 receptions for 233 yards and three touchdowns. After transitioning to playing solely TE in 2012, he ended the year with a nearly identical statistical line. Clay broke out in 2013, however, displaying a rapport with quarterback Ryan Tannehill and catching 69 balls for 759 yards and six touchdowns — he also rushed the ball seven times.

Advanced metrics don’t indicate as much positive development for Clay as do traditional stats. Pro Football Focus’ grades (subscription required) have painted Clay as merely ordinary over the course of his career — he ranked as just the 36th- and 34th-best tight end in the league in 2012 and 2013 respectively. Last year, specifically, PFF painted Clay as a well above-average pass-catcher, but lackluster in terms of pass-blocking. Football Outsiders has a similar opinion of Clay, as he finished 41st and 20th in DVOA over the past two years.

There are several potential roadblocks regarding extension talks from the Dolphins’ point of view, two of which Jackson notes. First, Clay only has one season of above-average production; Miami might want to wait and see if he is able to maintain last year’s level of play. Second, Clay recently aggravated his surgically-repaired knee, so the Dolphins could be wary of further injury risk. It’s just my speculation, but the Dolphins might also be worried about Clay’s fit in new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor’s scheme. Lazor worked under Chip Kelly in Philadelphia last year, and tight ends weren’t overly featured in the Eagles offense.

So what would a Clay extension look like? He probably won’t match Kyle Rudolph‘s five-year, $36.5MM deal — Rudolph had a second-round pedigree, and the Vikings were likely projecting a big season for the fourth-year TE with the help of offensive coordinator Norv Turner. Further down the list of tight end contracts is Jared Cook‘s five-year, $35.1MM pact with the Rams, which now looks like a major overpay. Descend further, and find the contracts of Brandon Pettigrew and Anthony Fasano that probably set the floor for Clay — four years, $16MM, with between $4-5MM guaranteed.

Among tight ends, there isn’t a perfect comparable with which to juxtapose Clay. The best deal to view might be that of Martellus Bennett, who received a $5.1MM AAV over four years, with $5.215MM in guarantees. Bennett is probably a better overall player, but Clay is two years younger and offers more versatility. The Dolphins will have to judge whether they value Clay as much as the Bears valued Bennett. In the end, I would guess a deal gets worked out, perhaps in-season. Working with an innovative coordinator like Lazor, Clay could be in for an even bigger season, and Miami could win big with a forward-looking contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Sports Images.

PFR Originals: 8/10/14 – 8/17/14

August 17th, 2014 at 1:59pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

The Effect Of Dwayne Bowe’s Suspension

August 15th, 2014 at 6:27pm CST by Luke Adams

While we wait for the NFL to announce its decisions on players like Josh Gordon and Aldon Smith, who will likely face lengthy suspensions for the 2014 season, the league confirmed today that another player will be banned from his team’s Week 1 contest next month — Chiefs wideout Dwayne Bowe was suspended for a game as a result of his arrest for marijuana possession last fall.Dwayne Bowe

On the surface, a one-game penalty for Bowe may not seem like a significant blow for him or his team, but as former agent Joel Corry of CBSSports.com points out (via Twitter), the remaining base salary guarantees on Bowe’s contract are voided as a result of his suspension. Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap breaks down the specifics, writing that the 29-year-old previously had his full $8.75MM salary for 2014 guaranteed, along with $1.5MM of his $10.75MM salary for 2015. Now that he’s been suspended, those guarantees are no longer in place.

According to Fitzgerald, the elimination of the guarantee on Bowe’s 2014 salary is merely semantic — in Fitzgerald’s view, we’re so close to the start of the regular season that it won’t make a huge difference for the Chiefs, who will rely on the receiver to be one of Alex Smith‘s favorite targets this season. On the other hand, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk outlines a scenario in which the voided guarantee could create a window for Kansas City to part ways with Bowe, likely by releasing him rather than trading him.

Prior to the suspension, Bowe’s contract, which has a cap number of $12MM for the 2014 season and $14MM for 2015, would have counted as $11.75MM in dead money this year and $10.5MM in dead money for next year if the Chiefs had cut him — in other words, the cap savings would have been minimal. Now, Kansas City could release him and take a 2014 cap penalty of just $3MM ($9MM in savings), with the remaining $9MM hitting next year’s cap. As Florio points out, such a move would not only create a sizable chunk of cap space immediately for the Chiefs – perhaps making it easier to sign Smith to a long-term extension – but it could open the door for Bowe to land with a receiver-needy team like the Browns.

For now though, that line of thought appears to just be speculative. While the lack of guaranteed money on Bowe’s 2015 salary will be something to consider for the Chiefs when they decide whether to keep him the veteran wideout around beyond this season, the odds of the club releasing him in the coming weeks are slim. As Terez Paylor of the Kansas City Star tweets, as much as the Chiefs talk about liking their young wideouts, Bowe is still their No. 1 option, and cutting him would come off as a signal the club is punting on the 2014 season.

Bowe’s one-game suspension and voided guarantees will give the Chiefs something to think about as they consider their short- and long-term options at receiver. And perhaps one of the team’s other wideouts will shine in the game Bowe misses, setting the stage for a breakout season that makes the former Pro Bowler more expendable at year’s end. At the moment, however, it’s presumptuous to assume that his one-game ban will affect Bowe’s 2014 status in Kansas City.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Important Remaining 2014 NFL Dates

August 13th, 2014 at 12:12pm CST by Luke Adams

Way back in January, in the week leading up to the Super Bowl, we took a look ahead at many of the important offseason dates on the NFL calendar, including the opening of free agency and draft weekend. However, the last of those key dates came and went in July, so now that training camps and the preseason are in full swing, it’s time to revisit the NFL calendar and check out the most crucial remaining dates in 2014.

Here’s a breakdown of several of the key dates to keep an eye on in the coming weeks and months:

August 26: Teams must reduce their 90-man rosters to 75 players by 3:00pm central time.
August 27: Teams trying out players on this date and for the rest of the season must report those workouts to the commissioner’s office.
August 30: Teams must reduce their 75-man rosters to 53 players by 3:00pm central time. Any players on the active/PUP or active/non-football injury or illness lists may be moved to the reserve versions of those lists.
August 31: Claiming period for players waived during final roster cuts ends at 11:00am central time. After that point, teams may establish a practice squad of 10 players.

September 2: After 3:00pm central time, teams are permitted to place one player on the injured reserve list with the designation to return.
September 3: After 3:00pm central time, all contracts for each team must fit under the salary cap (top-51 rule expires at 11:00pm central time).
September 23: Waiver priority order adjusted to become based on the reverse order of 2014’s standings.

October 7-8: Fall league meetings in New York City.
October 14: Players who are on the reserve/PUP and reserve/NFI lists are allowed to begin practicing for the next 21 days. Players must be activated or placed on injured reserve by 3:00pm central time on the day following the expiration of that 21-day window.
October 28: Trade deadline at 3:00pm central time.
October 29: All released players subject to waivers for rest of regular season and postseason.

December 27: By 3:00pm central time, teams must provide written notice of the amount of unused 2014 salary cap space to be rolled over to the 2015 cap.
December 29: Teams may begin signing players to reserve/futures contracts for the 2015 season. Teams may also begin exercising fifth-year options on 2012 first-round picks and signing 2012 draftees to contract extensions.

NFL.com and The Phinsider were used in the creation of this post.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Richie Incognito

August 10th, 2014 at 4:31pm CST by Dallas Robinson

As I noted in my evaluation of Jonathan Vilma‘s free agency stock, there are several positions in today’s NFL that are quite fungible — among them are running back, inside linebacker, and offensive guard. Of these devalued positions, guard might be the spot where veteran experience is still highly esteemed. Unlike the backfield or a front seven, a successful offensive line requires not only talent, but a sort of unspoken connectivity among the linemen. The best front fives in football are often those who have experienced stability, allowing the five players to mesh.Richie Incognito

If a team suffers a guard injury in the coming weeks, it may not want to turn to a rookie or another unseasoned young player. Rather, a team in need of line help might seek a veteran player with several years of experience under his belt. At this point in the offseason, however, such players don’t come without warts, so if and when a team looks for reinforcements at guard, the best remaining option might be the embattled Richie Incognito.

The reason why Incognito is still unemployed is obvious — his involvement in the Jonathan Martin scandal, during which Incognito bullied and harassed Martin until he left the team, is unsettling, to say the least. From an outsider’s perspective, it’s hard to judge whether Incognito’s behavior was incongruent with that of a typical NFL locker room. But the fact that he remains unsigned is an indication that either teams were disturbed by Incognito’s conduct, or aren’t willing to handle the media swarm that would occur following his signing.

But despite Incognito’s troubles, the reality of the NFL is that talent wins out. Players like Michael Vick and Ben Roethlisberger were accused of and/or charged with unsavory acts, but both were allowed back into the NFL. Vick was signed to a massive extension with the Eagles, and the Steelers will look to tack on years to Roethlisberger’s deal after 2014. If a player is able to compete at a high level, the league tends to look the other way when it comes to his past.

The 6’3″, 320-pound Incognito has certainly displayed effectiveness since entering the NFL as a third-round pick of the Rams in 2006. After several anger-related incidents, and racking up 38 penalites (seven unnecessary roughness calls), he was waived by St. Louis in 2009. After being claimed by the Bills, he spent one season in Buffalo before playing with the Dolphins from 2010-13. He was suspended indefinitely in November of last year, and his contract expired after the season.

In total, Incognito has started 102 games over the course of his career, spending time at both guard spots (though he has played only left guard in recent seasons). Pro Football Focus’ data (subscription required) only goes back to 2007, but the site’s advanced metrics have positively graded each of Incognito’s seasons. For most of his career, PFF’s statistics indicated that Incognito was a better run-blocker than pass-protector, but since 2012, those data points have flipped. Regardless, Incognito is unquestionably a top-30 guard, and topped out as the 16th-best guard in the league in 2010.

So will Incognito find a team for 2014? It’s difficult to project — on May 28, one general manager told Mike Freeman of Bleacher Report that despite Incognito’s attempts to get back in the league, his return was unlikely, as “no one trusts him.” A month later, sources were telling Freeman’s colleague, Dan Pompei, that while Incognito is easily the best available interior lineman, no team wants to deal with the fallout of signing him. However, on August 8, Incognito told Josh Peter of USA Today that his agent had received “a few nibbles” from teams during the offseason.

Any team that brings in Incognito will factor in the possibility that he will be suspended and miss a portion of 2014. However, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell recently sounded quite pleased with Incognito’s headway since the bullying incident took place. “It’s a broad issue,” said Goodell, via Connor Orr of the Newark Star-Ledger. “I would say that the one person who has been very responsive in going through the program has been Richie Incognito. We’re working with his people and monitoring his progress on that front.”

The Giants could have interest in Incognito — longtime guard Chris Snee announced his retirement last month, and New York had no problem bringing in Incognito’s former teammate John Jerry, who was also involved in the Martin scandal. The Buccaneers, who parted ways with Carl Nicks on July 25, could also use help at guard. Additionally, teams will inevitably suffer injuries at the position as the preseason proceeds, and will seek to add veteran depth.

In the end, Incognito’s fate will be determined by a simple cost-benefit analysis: Factoring in the inexorable media pressure that would ensue, is Incognito’s above-average play worth the headache of adding him? My guess is yes — his talent is undeniable, and a team will eventually get desperate enough to sign him. Guaranteed money or a guaranteed roster spot will be out of the question, but some team will be willing to take a gamble on Incognito in order to reap the reward.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PFR Originals: 8/3/14 – 8/10/14

August 10th, 2014 at 1:36pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • We finished up our Offseason in Review series, as Zach Links examined the Panthers and the Seahawks. Check out all a complete roundup of all our posts in the series here.
  • In our latest Extension Candidate piece, Luke Adams profiled Panthers quarterback Cam Newton, who is signed through 2015 thanks to Carolina exercising his fifth-year option.
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