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Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Eagles

By | at February 14, 2015 9:31 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. LeSean McCoy, RB: $11,950,000
  2. Trent Cole, OLB: $11,625,000
  3. Jason Peters, T: $9,050,000
  4. Cary Williams, CB: $8,166,668
  5. Connor Barwin, OLB: $7,000,000
  6. DeMeco Ryans, LB: $6,900,000
  7. Evan Mathis, G: $6,500,000
  8. Malcolm Jenkins, S: $5,666,666
  9. Lane Johnson, T: $5,414,483
  10. Todd Herremans, OL: $5,200,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • Chip Kelly awarded final say over all draft, roster decisions.

Draft:

  • No. 20 overall pick
  • Acquired a fourth-round pick from the 49ers (via the Bills) for Bryce Brown.

Other:

Overview

The Eagles are coming off a painful end to the season in which they finished 1-3 in their final four games, ending up with a 10-6 record and narrowly missing the playoffs after having control of the NFC East for most of the year. Those four losses all came with Mark Sanchez at the helm, after the team lost Nick Foles to a broken clavicle in early November, an injury that prematurely ended the starting quarterback’s season. While Sanchez had his moments and performed better than many backups would have fared, he was unable to keep the lead he was handed in the divisional race.

Jeremy MaclinChip Kelly‘s vaunted offensive attack was unable to hit the same marks it did in his first season as the head coach, when Foles became a dark horse MVP candidate behind his 27 touchdown to only two interceptions. The Eagles were able to move the ball behind a dangerous ground attack with LeSean McCoy and a superb offensive line.

This past season, however, the offensive line dealt with injuries and suspensions, and was never able to line up its best five guys and really get a flow running the football. McCoy still ran his way into the Pro Bowl, but Eagles fans saw it as a slow burn instead of the highlight reel on loop that it had been in 2013.

One of last year’s best trades brought in Darren Sproles, who did provide some spark to both the offense and the special teams units. The Eagles’ struggles on offense were mitigated by touchdowns by the defense and special teams, but all those wins without a playoff appearance could keep the team from drafting the one player it might need the most in order to take the next step into a Super Bowl contender.

Transfer of Power

Since the regular season ended, the biggest story surrounding the Eagles has been the club’s front office shakeup. Kelly has been given a more authoritative role over the roster, while former general manager Howie Roseman has reportedly maintained control over contract negotiations and cap management. So far, this new setup has created more confusion than anything.

The new power structure will ensure that Kelly will be able to have more of an imprint on the on-the-field product. Without anyone to answer to, he will be able to pursue players to fit his system through the draft and free agency, with less push-back or resistance from his front office.

Kelly has already made a habit of adding former Oregon Ducks to his Eagles’ roster, but with full control it would be difficult to imagine someone with vision for the team such as Kelly’s not immediately pushing this roster forward, especially on offense, in order to run the offense exactly the way he wants.

Quarterback Situation

The first thing the Eagles need to address is their quarterback position. Nick Foles was sensational in 2013, but the combination of him and Sanchez this past year was adequate at best. Kelly is not running a defense-first team that can survive inconsistent quarterback play, so that will have to improve going forward.

Sanchez faded down the stretch, likely putting him out of the running for the job. The seemingly obvious solution would be to move forward with Foles, and chalk up a failed 2014 campaign to his injury. That would be a dangerous presumption. Foles turned the ball over 13 times in eight games, and struggled moving the football down the field. He also graded out extremely poorly according to Pro Football Focus, coming up behind the likes of Charlie Whitehurst, Zach Mettenberger, Mike Glennon, and Kirk Cousins (subscription required).

Of course, the top free agent passer is generally considered to be either Sanchez or Brian Hoyer. Sanchez performed worse than Foles, and doesn’t have a recent Pro Bowl season to his name, and Hoyer graded out considerably worse than Foles — the Browns signal-caller was among the worst in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.

The wild card here is the NFL Draft, where Jameis Winston is ascending as the likely number one overall pick. The quarterback he passed to get there is former Oregon Duck Marcus Mariota, who is watching his stock slip a little as the weeks go by.

The Jets are currently slated to take Mariota with the sixth pick, according to ESPN Draft Expert Todd McShay (Insider-only article). The Eagles select at No. 20, but Kelly may be hoping to have a shot to draft his former star. Moving up from 20th to first or second is probably out of the question, and even moving up to sixth is unlikely. However, if Kelly is sold on Mariota, there must be a place where he feels comfortable moving up to get the Heisman winner should he continue to fall.

Last year, Teddy Bridgewater went from possible top-three pick to the end of the first round where the Vikings traded up to select him. I don’t imagine that happening again, even if Mariota continues to fall out of favor with NFL evaluators. Even falling to No. 20 is very unlikely, as the fit with the Eagles is too obvious and any other team interested would be smart enough to try to work a deal to move up ahead of the Eagles to select him.

Kelly might not think Mariota is the perfect fit for the NFL version of his up-tempo attack, but Foles, Sanchez, and Hoyer are probably more likely to disappoint than they are to put up the points that Kelly is looking for from his offense.

Positions Of Need

Other than quarterback, which is always the number one position of need for teams that don’t feel they have the right guy, the Eagles’ biggest need is at cornerback, where the team is in desperate need of an upgrade. During their 1-3 finish, the Eagles repeatedly got burned in one-on-one coverage on the outside – giving up notably large performances to Dez Bryant, Doug Baldwin, DeSean Jackson, and Odell Beckham Jr. – and the club’s corners struggled in many other games this season.

If the team is insistent on running an aggressive defense, it will require better players on the outside. Darrelle Revis seems like a lock to return to the Patriots, and Byron Maxwell might not represent the type of athlete the Eagles need for their style of defense. Brandon Flowers also struggled in the Chiefs’ man-to-man heavy defense before being cut and restoring his value in San Diego.

Among corners that are better fits, Kareem Jackson could potentially handle the scheme, although he has been inconsistent in Houston. Antonio Cromartie is also a modicum of inconsistency, but he has a lot of experience being on an island and has had more good days than bad recently.

One interesting option is Packers free agent Tramon Williams, who was last seen getting burned for a game-winning, one-on-one touchdown to Jermaine Kearse. Williams will likely not be re-signed by the Packers as a 32-year-old corner. He still has some cover skills, and on a short-term deal, could be effective. Chris Culliver and Davon House could be additional options for Philadelphia, though neither would be considered a surefire fix at the position.

The team could also use an upgrade at safety, although veteran options are far and few between there as well. If Antrel Rolle or Troy Polamalu hits free agency, both could be stop-gap solutions for the Eagles in 2015. The team will also have an opportunity to look at defensive backs with their first-round pick, with a number of corners and/or safeties likely to be available. Landon Collins of Alabama could be one star player that may fall to the Eagles at that No. 20 spot.

Key Free Agents

The Eagles’ most important free agent is Jeremy Maclin, who bet on himself with a one-year contract last season. That bet paid off to the tune of 85 catches, 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns. Maclin is now in line for a very big long-term contract with plenty of guaranteed money. Our own Luke Adams noted that it wouldn’t make sense for Maclin to sign his extension just yet — with franchise tags ready to be passed out, Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant could be off the market by the time free agency opens. That would make Maclin’s best competition Randall Cobb, and could leave him as the most sought-after free agent at his position.

The only other major free agent worth keeping is edge rusher Brandon Graham. Graham never quite fit into the Eagles’ plans under Kelly’s regime. Graham would be a cleaner fit for a 4-3 defense where he could line up with one hand in the dirt. Despite high production, he has appeared in less than 1,300 snaps over the past three seasons. In 435 snaps in 2012, he ranked as the second-best defensive end in the league according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He graded positively again in 331 snaps in 2013 while transitioning to a 3-4 outside linebacker, and his 524 snaps in 2014 he rated out as the third-best player at his position. Graham will likely look for a big pay raise with more opportunity, and the Eagles might think it is better to let him go and groom underwhelming 2014 first-round pick Marcus Smith for a larger role on the defense.

The team will likely allow Nate Allen, Bradley Fletcher, Sanchez, and Brad Smith leave in free agency, or bring them back on short-term deals with little guaranteed money.

Possible Cap Casualties

Cary Williams‘ middling performance and the struggles in the secondary as a whole would be enough to consider moving on from the Super-Bowl-winning cornerback, and a cap hit of more than $8.16MM for 2015 will only make that decision easier. Cutting Williams would save $6.5MM on the cap, according to OverTheCap.com.

A tougher decision for the Eagles will be Trent Cole, who has been a stalwart of the team’s defense for years, and remains productive. A pass-rushing expert, Cole has been a premier – if underrated – contributor for his entire career as an Eagle. His 85.5 career sacks puts him just outside the top 10 for active players, and place him second in franchise history. However, releasing Cole this offseason would result in cap savings of $8.425MM in 2015, followed by savings of $11MM and $14MM the next two years. If the team still wants to keep him, a restructure might be a possibility for Cole, who has expressed interest in playing his entire career with the team.

DeMeco Ryans tore his Achilles tendon and missed most of the 2014 campaign, leaving Kelly to call him the “Mufasa” of the team’s defense. Whether or not that reference was used properly, there is no doubt that Ryans was a leader on the team and that his absence would be felt. The team will likely want him back in 2015, but a $6.9MM cap hit may be too high for an inside linebacker coming off a serious injury.

Finally, LeSean McCoy is the rare running back who holds the highest cap number on his team’s books. Not many would argue that he’s not deserving of being one of the highest-paid players at his position, but even still, a cap hit approaching $12MM leaves restructuring a possibility.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The Eagles will likely point to Fletcher Cox as a top priority this offseason. He graded out as a top five 3-4 defensive end in 2014 according to Pro Football Focus, alongside such names as J.J. Watt, Muhammad Wilkerson, Calais Campbell, and Sheldon Richardson. The team will almost certainly exercise its fifth-year option on Cox, but a long-term extension would be ideal.

Foles believes he should return as the starter in 2015, and if the Eagles agree, then an extension seems like a possibility. However, it’s not clear if the team is sold on the idea of Foles as its quarterback of the future. If he becomes available via trade, there will likely be potential suitors who believe in his abilities. The Eagles may covet a passer like Mariota, or another player more dynamic than Foles.

Overall Outlook

The Eagles are coming off a 10-win season that saw them narrowly miss the playoffs, and 2015 will likely represent a crossroads for Kelly’s regime. The club was able to stay afloat with the duo of Foles and Sanchez, but that shouldn’t mask the fact that the quarterback situation needs to be addressed. Of course, with the 20th pick in the draft and a lack of options in free agency, it will be extremely difficult to upgrade that spot. The dream would be Mariota falling, but that might just be a storyline that brings the city of Philadelphia false hope. A secondary option such as Brett Hundley far from guarantees an upgrade over Foles, now or in the future.

A more realistic spot to make significant upgrades is in the secondary, which held the entire defense back in 2014. Unfortunately for Eagles’ fans, the market for corners and safeties isn’t great this year after or Revis and Devin McCourty, who may not even become available. Players like Cromartie and Tramon Williams, or Byron Maxwell, Chris Culliver, and Davon House could be improvements, but adding one or two of those guys probably wouldn’t make the Eagles’ defense one of the top units in the league.

Coach Kelly will try his best to keep his team at double-digit wins and in the playoff hunt for a third straight year, but if he cannot return Foles to his 2013 form or find a better option, Kelly will have a hard time sustaining his early success over the long term.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

0 comments Offseason Outlook PFR Originals Philadelphia Eagles

Free Agent Stock Watch: Julius Thomas

By | at February 14, 2015 4:17 pm

One of the more rapid rising stars in the game, Julius Thomas presents an interesting case in his first foray into free agency. The two-year starting tight end made next to no impact in his first and second seasons, hampered by lingering ankle maladies. But his ensuing two slates create a robust market for the athletic, yet frequently unavailable target.

Does Thomas’ value lie in being an athletic tight end with elite ball skills, a package the Broncos haven’t unleashed since Shannon Sharpe, who played under then-offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak for most of the latter half of his career? Or is he an injury-prone Peyton Manning product? Since the 26-year-old Thomas morphed into a red zone dynamo, with 12 touchdown receptions in each of the past two seasons, and has positioned himself as this market’s top tight end, teams will bid big to find out.Julius Thomas

But the best offer for the 2011 fourth-round pick might not come from the Broncos. Now transitioning back to Kubiak’s offense, which relies heavily on tight ends blocking and not splitting out wide as much, with multiple other dominant free agents to take care of — including Demaryius Thomas and Terrance Knighton — Denver may not be able to afford Julius Thomas’ services. He may not even be in large font on the Broncos’ offseason itinerary considering the scheme change and the numerous ancillary free agents from their 2011 draft class, which is easily the best under fifth-year GM John Elway‘s watch.

Undrafted Pro Bowl cornerback Chris Harris re-upped for 5 years and $42.5MM, and first-rounder Von Miller will play out his fifth-year option on a $9.7MM cap number next season from that class. But Thomas, left guard Orlando Franklin and free safety Rahim Moore (second round), middle linebacker Nate Irving (third) and in-line tight end Virgil Green (sixth) are all free agents who played key roles last season.

Thomas, who played for just $645K last year, has understandably been lukewarm to the idea of a hometown discount, something to which Demaryius Thomas and Knighton have been receptive. With Demaryius Thomas likely to be slapped with the franchise tag, as we discussed Tuesday, the Broncos will need to reach a long-term contract with Julius Thomas to keep him around. Even though Elway reiterated his desire to keep Julius Thomas in Denver in January, per Nicki Jhabvala of the Post, the former Big Sky basketball standout already turned down a deal that would’ve made him one of the league’s top four highest-paid tight ends, a source told Kils in October. With a projected $26MM+ in cap space and more than a third of their starters unsigned, the Broncos likely won’t bring back all of their top three free agents and may be stuck with just one after franchising Demaryius Thomas, should Knighton also receive a strong offer considering his career metamorphosis the past two years.

The case for the Broncos bringing back Julius Thomas depends on which version of Manning they think they’re getting back. The future Hall of Fame quarterback has inflated the numbers for plenty of pass-catchers over the past 18 years, but assuming he returns for his age-39 season — this probably will be the case after the QB iterated his desire to return Friday night — he will need as much firepower as possible to keep the Broncos on their current course. Thomas’ reputation as a bigger wide receiver who is ill-equipped for Kubiak’s system may not be entirely accurate, either. The 6-foot-4, 251-pound Division I-FCS product improved from 2013 when Pro Football Focus (subscription required) tabbed him as the NFL’s second-worst run-blocking tight end to last season when the site gave Thomas a positive grade and slotted him at No. 33 in the category — just two spots behind Rob Gronkowski.

Former Broncos head coach John Fox and OC Adam Gase in a way validated Thomas’ market value by orchestrating a dramatic overhaul of the offense — to a C.J. Anderson-heavy ground approach — the week after Thomas encountered ankle turmoil for the fourth straight season. Not that there weren’t additional factors in Manning’s decline in the season’s second half, but the Broncos’ offense didn’t look the same without its top touchdown target. Without Thomas at full strength, a level he didn’t return to after his latest injury, Manning had just two games with a quarterback rating over 86 — against the Dolphins and Chargers, respectively. This precipitous fall came after Manning (22 TD passes and just three interceptions in the Broncos’ first seven games) charted just one game under 110 in a stretch that wasn’t a bad imitation of his 2013 MVP effort. Thomas had nine TD grabs during Denver’s peak span and three multi-score showings.

The case against re-signing Thomas hinges on what the Broncos do with Knighton, how much they want to invest in the aforementioned 2011 draft class, how much money they allocate to reshape their offensive line and, perhaps most importantly, whether they feel the tight end’s availability justifies his likely high re-up price. As TheMMQB’s Peter King summarized last year, Thomas considered giving up football after a persistent ankle injury he sustained in 2011 dogged him throughout his first two seasons. Overall, ankle problems forced him to miss 28 games in four years. But teams with shaky tight end outlooks — the Raiders, Cardinals and Browns, to name a few — likely won’t have as much of an issue with Thomas’ negatives, considering a player with these numbers rarely reaches free agency.

If Jared Cook and Kyle Rudolph could ink $7MM-per-year deals within the last couple years — Cook as a free agent with production nowhere near Thomas’ — Thomas has a good chance to earn top-five money at the position. That top five currently ends with Rudolph and starts with Jimmy Graham‘s $10MM-per-year contract signed last year, per OverTheCap.com.

Re-signing Green ($645K in his fourth season last year) or someone like Dolphins free agent Charles Clay makes sense if the Broncos don’t want to meet Thomas’ salary wishes, but for a team whose title window depends heavily on the success of an aging quarterback with fading arm strength, it might be prudent to keep his main weapons around — especially the one who is Manning’s preferred option to finish off drives. The cap math adds up better for the Broncos if Manning renegotiates his salary — something we learned on Friday he could be willing to do — which is set for $19MM and a $21.5MM cap hit.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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Free Agent Market For Tight Ends

By | at February 13, 2015 10:27 am

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to tight ends. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

Coming into the 2014 season, Cameron and Clay looked like potential top-10 tight ends in the NFL, but both players took a step back over the last few months. Cameron’s drop-off was particularly precipitous, due in part to concussion problems — the Browns tight end caught just 24 passes after racking up 80 receptions in 2013. Still, both players have proven they’re capable of being reliable pass-catchers, so I expect we’ll see them draw plenty of interest from teams that can’t afford Thomas.

Thomas, of course, is the crown jewel of this year’s free agent class, and while he’d be a lock to be franchised by many teams, the Broncos may not have the flexibility to make such a move, since they’ll likely to have to use that tag on Demaryius Thomas. Battling injuries himself down the stretch, the Denver tight end might have seen his stock dip a little after coming out of the gates on fire in 2014, but he should still easily land the biggest contract this winter of any player at the position — a top-five TE salary is definitely within reach.

As for Gresham and Paul, their career arcs look quite different thus far, though they find themselves in similar situations this offseason. Gresham has always put up solid receiving numbers for the Bengals, but has never fully fit in Cincinnati, especially with the team looking to give Tyler Eifert a larger role in the offense. Paul, meanwhile, was nonexistent in Washington’s passing game until 2014, when he broke out with 39 catches and 507 yards. With Jordan Reed still under contract in D.C., Paul may be the odd man out.

Other unrestricted options:

Clubs looking for a pass catcher at tight end should focus primarily on those players in the first group, because there aren’t many here that could be relied upon for consistent production. Still, TE is a position at which pass-catching isn’t necessarily the be-all, end-all to being an effective player, and several of the guys in this group can contribute positive value even without running routes.

According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Fells, Green, Pascoe, and Spaeth all graded among the league’s best run blockers at the position. In fact, buoyed primarily by their strong run-blocking performances, Fells, Green, and Spaeth all ranked among PFF’s top 20 tight ends, placing well ahead of notable receiving TEs such as Heath Miller, Antonio Gates, and Coby Fleener. A club may not want to head into the 2014 season with Fells atop its depth chart at the position, but he’s certainly a respectable No. 2 option.

2015 may also be the last chance for Finley to make a comeback — having missed the better part of the last two seasons due to neck issues, the former Packers tight end may simply decide to call it a career and try to collect on his insurance policy. However, if he’s cleared by doctors to return to the field, I’d expect him to try to catch on with another team this year, and if he can prove he’s healthy, his upside should intrigue suitors.

Restricted FAs:

Considering these three players have combined for 32 career receptions, I don’t expect the bidding on their services to be all that competitive this offseason. It would be a surprise if any of them even received a restricted free agent tender from their current clubs, though they could still return to those teams at a lesser salary.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

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Offseason Outlook: Dallas Cowboys

By | at February 12, 2015 6:07 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Tony Romo, QB: $27,773,000
  2. Tyron Smith, T: $13,039,000
  3. Brandon Carr, CB: $12,717,000
  4. Henry Melton, DT: $9,250,250
  5. Jason Witten, TE: $8,512,000
  6. Sean Lee, LB: $5,450,000
  7. Morris Claiborne, CB: $5,175,069
  8. Orlando Scandrick, CB: $4,351,250
  9. Barry Church, S: $3,250,000
  10. Mackenzy Bernadeau, G: $2,824,168

Notable coaching moves:

Draft:

Other:

Overview

As a youngster, did you grow up dreaming of becoming a right tackle? Is there a Fathead replica of your team’s starting left guard overlooking your couch? No, offensive lineman aren’t celebrated as much as the players at skill positions, but we all know how vital the o-line really is. After years of building the unit, the Cowboys’ offensive line helped propel them to the top of the NFC East.

Tony Romo, who has had his ups and downs in recent years, finished the year as the No. 6 quarterback in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). DeMarco Murray took advantage of those truck-sized holes created by the o-line and rushed his way to a career year. Dez Bryant cemented himself as one of the very best (if not the best) receivers in the NFL, lighting up opposing cornerbacks on a weekly basis. Meanwhile, the defense went from last in the league in 2013 to 19th overall in 2014 – not exactly the 1985 Bears, but a step up from being the “-Allas” Cowboys.

The Cowboys have reason to believe in 2015, but their electric offensive duo is eligible for free agency and there are numerous holes to address.

Positions Of Need

The Cowboys’ needs will depend heavily on what happens with Bryant and Murray and, by all accounts, the wide receiver is far more likely to return to the Cowboys than the running back. If Murray is not retained (we’ll discuss his situation in depth in a bit), there are a number of options that Dallas can turn to. It’s been long rumored that Jerry Jones would love to land Texas native Adrian Peterson. In fact, the two chatted over the summer and reportedly discussed the possibility.

“Well, I understand, Adrian,” Jones said. “I’d like that, too … Well, I love your story. I love your daddy’s story. I’ve always respected what you’ve been about. I’ve always been a fan of yours.”

Peterson would later downplay the sweet nothings whispered between the two but the mutual interest is abundantly clear. The Vikings, meanwhile, hold the cards and they could still push for 100 cents on the dollar in spite of AD’s off-field troubles from last year. Or, they might not be willing to discuss Peterson at all with Dallas. The last time these two franchises consummated a deal involving a franchise running back, the Cowboys came out ahead by a mile.

Alternatively, the Cowboys could turn to the draft for their next starting tailback. Georgia star Todd Gurley once seemed destined to be a top pick, but his 2014 ACL injury could put him within range for Dallas later in the first round. Beyond Gurley, Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon and Indiana’s Tevin Coleman are among the best backs on the board and both have drawn comparisons to Murray for their running style. In free agency, Dallas will find notables like Mark Ingram and the oft-injured Ryan Mathews. Ingram, of course, had a breakout season with the Saints in 2014 that was derailed a bit in the middle by a broken hand.

It sure doesn’t sound like the Cowboys will have to replace Bryant, but if they do, guys like Randall Cobb, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Brandon Marshall, Michael Crabtree, Mike Wallace, and more could be available on the open market. At this point, if Dallas does anything at wide receiver, it seems more likely that they would look into supporting players with Cole Beasley (restricted) and Dwayne Harris (unrestricted) in limbo.

On the other side of the ball, Dallas could have a ton of work to do with defensive linemen Nick Hayden, Anthony Spencer, and George Selvie all out-of-contract. Meanwhile, if Henry Melton remains on the roster through the first day of the 2015 league year, a three-year extension worth $8MM annually and $9MM guaranteed will kick in. Melton appeared to be a mortal lock to remain under that contract at one point last season, but finishing the season on IR has thrown that in flux.

Bruce Carter, Justin Durant, and Rolando McClain are all headed towards free agency, which could lead the Cowboys to go shopping for linebackers. Cornerback could also be a need for the Cowboys if Brandon Carr isn’t willing to restructure his deal.

Key Free Agents

Re-signing Bryant will be the Cowboys’ No. 1 priority this offseason. While there was a good amount of dialogue between the wide receiver and owner Jerry Jones, Bryant ultimately didn’t get an offer he liked enough during the season as he opted to gamble on himself. That bet paid off big time as Bryant turned in a career year with 88 receptions, 1,320 yards, and 16 touchdowns. Needless to say, keeping Bryant for the long-term won’t be cheap, and that means that the franchise tag is a distinct possibility. At an estimated $13MM, the franchise tag isn’t a drop in the bucket either, but Jones won’t hesitate to do it if the two sides can’t come to an agreement on a new deal. Of course, the very threat of the franchise tag could light a fire underneath Bryant’s camp.

Jerry loves his stars, but he’s apparently gun-shy about giving Bryant a big long-term deal because of his off-field issues. Bryant’s reps will likely seek a deal worth $12-14MM in average annual value, making the franchise tag something of a no-brainer. The Cowboys could be persuaded into making a multiyear pact happen if they get a break in guaranteed dollars, but I don’t think they’ll mind Bryant playing for his money once again.

Unfortunately, the game of football isn’t as fair to running backs. Murray also turned in a career year, but at this time it doesn’t sound like the Cowboys are willing to shell out big bucks to keep him. Recently, Jason Cole of Bleacher Report heard from sources that the reigning offensive player of the year should command between $7-10MM annually on a new deal. Meanwhile, a report from Ian Rapoport of NFL.com indicated that Dallas’ latest offer came in at about $4MM per season. There’s one heck of a bridge to gap between Murray and Dallas and the Cowboys might not be willing to meet him halfway. Still, Murray put on a ton of miles in 2014 and his fumbling issues were troubling and it’s possible that his market won’t be as hot as he expects.

On the offensive line, Dallas will have to figure out what to do at right tackle with both Doug Free and Jermey Parnell eligible for free agency. Free was ticketed to be the starter in 2014, but injuries mucked with those plans, opening the door for Parnell. The Cowboys would love to keep both, but that might not make budgetary sense for the team. If Free’s foot and ankle troubles appear to be behind him, it wouldn’t surprising to see him return while Parnell gets signed to be someone else’s starter.

Even though Dallas has serious uncertainty when it comes to its linebacking troupe, the club at least has the flexibility of Anthony Hitchens and can plug him in at any spot necessary. Still, in a perfect world, Dallas would retain McClain and put him in the middle, allowing Hitchens and the returning Sean Lee to take care of the outside spots. It seemed unlikely at the time he was acquired from the Ravens, but McClain turned out to be a rock for the Cowboys in the face of Lee’s season-ending injury. Keeping both Durant and Carter would be a solid play by the Cowboys but with Carter’s measurables, it’s not hard to see another team swooping in and paying more than Dallas would be comfortable with.

Possible Cap Casualties

With a cap hit north of $12.7MM, Carr will be out of Dallas unless he is willing to take a pay cut. Back in January, Jones made it clear that he’s not interested in a restructuring and instead wants a salary reduction.

“There’s an issue of going and borrowing some money, borrowing it in the sense of hedging, taking money from future years,” Jones said. “There’s an issue there. Carr played well this year and I’m not as critical of Carr as others. But that’s a lot of money. One thing that we just got to do is we’ve got to make sure that every way we can, we get the value for the money.”

Releasing Carr outright would save the Cowboys $8MM against the cap in 2015 but it would leave them with a $7.4MM burden the following year. Moving on from Carr would be doubly difficult since Morris Claiborne, another underachiever, is not guaranteed to be ready for the start of the 2015 season thanks to his torn patella tendon. It seems like a pay cut, even if it’s a modest one, would be in the best interest of both parties.

The Cowboys would probably like to welcome Melton back for another season but they’ll probably look to work out a new deal. A new contract for the 28-year-old defensive tackle would probably call for a big drop in guaranteed money with a reduced average annual value as well. Melton finished the year as the 14th ranked defensive tackle in the entire NFL, according to Pro Football Focus.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

Romo’s contract calls for a $27.77MM cap hit in 2015, before dipping to $17.64MM in 2016. Jones, as we mentioned when talking about Carr, is wary of shifting financial burden into future years to clear up the current cap situation. However, it’s hard to see Dallas really sticking to that plan considering the work that needs to be done this offseason. The Cowboys have a limited window to win with Romo under center and there’s no real succession plan in place for the 34-year-old (35 in April). Of course, at Romo’s age, an extension is probably off the table.

Recently, Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap looked at the Cowboys options when it comes to a possible restructuring for Romo and he found that there were two viable solutions. The first would be a restructuring where $7MM is converted into a signing bonus, rather than the maximum allowable figure of $16.03MM. That would create $5.6MM in cap space with a workable $14.2MM in dead money in 2017. Alternatively, Fitzgerald suggests that Dallas could take away from Romo’s massive 2015 base salary and shift that money over to the following year, where his current base is just $8.5MM.

Overall Outlook

After capturing their first NFC East title since 2009, it finally appears that things are falling into place for the Cowboys. In order to repeat, however, they’ll have to find a way to keep their needle-movers without compromising too much for future seasons.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Market For Wide Receivers

By | at February 12, 2015 8:54 am

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to wide receivers. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

No other position has the same sort of star power at the top as this year’s free agent group of receivers does. In fact, in our last installment of 2015’s free agent power rankings, four of our top eight players were wideouts, with Bryant, Thomas, Maclin, and Cobb all making the cut.

Still, it’s probably fair to assume that Bryant and Thomas, at least, won’t reach the open market. Their respective teams have the franchise tag at their disposal, and intend to use it if a long-term agreement can’t be reached. Maclin and Cobb, on the other hand, may not warrant a tag, so they’ll be worth watching as free agency nears. If they make it to the open market, long-term deals worth $10MM+ annually aren’t out of the question, considering how many receiver-needy teams have cap room to spare.

While those four players are probably in a tier of their own, Smith isn’t far behind, and Crabtree is only two years removed from an 1,100-yard season. The rest of the list is a mix of reliable veterans (Royal, Washington, Wayne), and players with some upside (Britt, Nicks, Shorts), though teams likely won’t want to make too significant an investment on a guy from either of those groups.

Other unrestricted options:

You could make the case that Welker should be in the top tier of free agent wideouts this offseason, but his history of head injuries, combined with declining production, has him mulling the possibility of retirement, and I don’t think he’s the same guy he was even two or three seasons ago. Nonetheless, he’s one of the more intriguing names among this group, which features a number of players who are either past their primes or have yet to fully realize theirs.

If you’re looking for a player with some upside here, you could do worse than the two Raiders, Brown and Denarius Moore. Jernigan, who turns 26 this year, is also an interesting option — he was poised to assume a much larger role in the Giants’ offense in 2014 before a foot injury cut his season short. Williams also may have something left in the tank after a lost season in Buffalo, but a team shouldn’t invest more than a minimum-salary contract to find out.

In fact, that probably applies to most players on this list. There’s an outside chance a club could find an impact performer in this group, but most of these guys will end up no higher than third or fourth on a team’s depth chart. Others may not even rank that highly, contributing primarily on special teams or in the return game rather than an offense.

Restricted FAs:

It’s not easy to pry away a restricted free agent from a team that wants to keep him, and I assume that will be the case for the more noteworthy names among this year’s RFA wideouts. Guys like Beasley, Holmes, Johnson, Kearse, and Streater should pique the interest of teams in need of wideouts, but I imagine their current clubs will submit contract tenders to bring them back.

In my view, Holmes is the most interesting player in this group, but considering how much cap room the Raiders have, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Raiders placed a higher tender on the 26-year-old to discourage rival suitors from courting him. Typically, a minimum-level RFA tender is enough to scare off potential bidders, but for less than $1MM, Oakland could increase its offer to a second-round tender, meaning that any club hoping to sign Holmes would have to part with a second-round pick to land him.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

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The Patriots’ Options For Darrelle Revis

By | at February 11, 2015 8:50 am

Several weeks ago, I took a closer look at the Lions’ options this offseason with Ndamukong Suh, whose contract situation is much more complicated than a typical free agent’s. Because Suh’s 2014 cap number was well over $22MM, using the franchise tag on the defensive tackle this winter would cost Detroit much more than it would cost – for example – the Cowboys to tag Dez Bryant, or the Chiefs to tag Justin Houston.

While Suh’s case is exceptional, the Patriots’ options with cornerback Darrelle Revis this offseason may be even trickier. The franchise tag isn’t an option for New England and Revis, since he remains under contract for 2015 rather than being eligible for free agency in March. But retaining the star corner won’t be as easy as simply keeping him on the roster. Let’s examine the options on the table for the Patriots and Revis as we try to determine what his future might hold….

Picking up his 2015 option:

When the Patriots signed Revis last March, the deal was structured in such a way that it was reported as essentially being a one-year, $12MM pact, despite technically being a two-year, $32MM agreement. Along with a $10MM signing bonus, which was prorated over two years, the contract included a modest $1.5MM base salary for 2014, a $7.5MM base salary for 2015, and a $12MM roster bonus if the former first-round pick remained on the Pats’ roster for a second season.Darrelle Revis

Throw in $500K annual per-game roster bonuses, and the upshot is this: Revis counted against New England’s cap for $7MM in year one of the deal. In year two, he’ll count for $5MM in dead money against the cap if he’s cut, or for $25MM if the Pats pick up his option. Having already paid him $12MM, the team would be on the hook for another $20MM in 2015 by keeping him around on the same deal.

While it initially appeared out of the question, the idea of simply picking up Revis’ option has gained some traction lately. Most recently, both Gary Tanguay and Chris Gasper of CSNNE suggested yesterday that they felt the Pats should consider exercising that option if the two sides can’t work out a longer-term arrangement.

Picking up the option sounds like a nice fallback plan on the surface, buying the club some time to negotiate an extension and ensuring that Revis sticks around to handcuff top opposing receivers. But in practicality, it’s extremely difficult to imagine the Pats being able to stomach such an exorbitant cap hit. For comparison’s sake, there were only two cap numbers in all of football in 2014 that were over $20MM — Suh’s $22.41MM figure, and Eli Manning‘s $20.4MM. If we narrow our focus to the Patriots, only Tom Brady had a cap hit of over $8MM, at $14.8MM.

Bringing back Revis is important, but history has proven that Bill Belichick‘s Patriots aren’t a team that retains a player at any cost. New England currently projects to be nearly $5MM over the cap for 2015, with Revis’ option on its books, and while it will be possible to cut some players and slide under the cap, keeping the cornerback around for a cap hit that’s worth $11MM more than Brady’s would seriously limit the club’s flexibility this offseason.

Patriots president Jonathan Kraft recently acknowledged that the second year of Revis’ deal is essentially a “placeholder,” which makes sense. When they finalized the contract a year ago, the Pats didn’t expect the 29-year-old to play the second season at that price, and even after a year in which the team won a Super Bowl and Revis ranked as one of the league’s top corners (PFF link), I’d be surprised if that stance changes.

Working out a multiyear extension:

If exercising Revis’ second-year option isn’t a viable solution and using the franchise or transition tag isn’t on the table, negotiating a multiyear extension looks to be by far the Patriots’ best bet. And with free agency less than a month away, I expect the club to do everything it can to finalize something with its top defensive back.

As I noted earlier, however, New England isn’t the sort of team that will lock up its players at any price. A long-term deal would have to provide value and flexibility for the Pats in addition to being worthwhile for Revis. Given the cornerback’s age (he turns 30 in July) and the Pats’ reluctance to splurge on any one player (even Brady is making markedly less than other top quarterbacks), I think it’s unlikely that the team will make an offer similar to the ones signed by players like Richard Sherman, Joe Haden and Patrick Peterson in 2014.

Even if guys like Haden and Peterson don’t necessarily have the same ability Revis does as a cover corner, their extensions will cover their prime years. There’s still room for improvement for those players as they enter their mid-20s — in Revis’ case, the concern would be that a drop-off may be around the corner, if not in the next year or two, than shortly thereafter. He’s still in great shape, but if the Pats have any concerns about his long-term outlook, the team may be reluctant to commit to a lengthy deal in the range of $13.5-14MM per year, like the ones signed by Sherman, Haden, and Peterson.

That may be fine with Revis, whose last couple deals have both been structured to allow his teams to escape after just a year or two. He has never been shy about betting on himself in the past, though there’s no guarantee that stance will change as he approaches 30 — banking on a big annual payday was a safe bet for most of his career, but if the veteran has a down year at age 31, for instance, there will be more uncertainty about his ability to bounce back and to once again rank among the NFL’s elite defenders.

Taking into account all those factors, a three-year deal in the range of $45MM with a sizable portion of guaranteed money seems like it could make sense for the Patriots. But would it make sense for Revis? If he plays hardball and forces the Pats to pick up his option, he’d guarantee himself $20MM for the 2014 season alone. Even if the team doesn’t exercise that option, he could hit the open market and potentially find another suitor (the Jets?) more willing to overpay him. Coming off another excellent season, Revis will have plenty of leverage — if he wants to return to New England, I think the two sides could work something out, but I’m skeptical that the Pats are willing to match the biggest offer he’d get on the open market.

Cutting him and letting him reach the open market:

If Revis does make it to free agency, that doesn’t guarantee he’ll play for a team besides the Pats in 2015. But it would certainly be a worst-case scenario for the prospect of Revis returning to New England, opening the door for the Jets – a team with a ton of cap space and a ton of interest in Revis – or another suitor to put a huge offer on the table.

A report yesterday indicated that the Jets will prioritize Revis over any other cornerback, including Antonio Cromartie, if he makes it to free agency, and it’s fair to wonder if the team itself is leaking word of its interest. After all, hinting that a big offer will be waiting for him in free agency seems like the best way to try to discourage Revis from agreeing to a new deal with the Pats.

While there’s been no indication yet what sort of contract the Jets – or any other team – might offer Revis, new GM Mike Maccagnan figures to be armed with nearly $50MM in cap room, so New York would certainly have the flexibility to make Revis an offer that matches or exceeds those long-term Sherman, Haden, and Peterson deals, making him the highest-paid corner in the game.

If the Pats hope to lock up Revis before free agency, it will probably take an offer that’s competitive with the one(s) waiting for the cornerback on the open market. As much as Revis may want to return to New England and help defend the club’s Super Bowl title, his track record suggests he’s unlikely to take a sizable discount to re-sign. Whether or not he and the Pats can find common ground on a deal that appeases both sides will be one of the top stories to watch as the free agent period approaches. The team has until March 10 to make its decision.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Market For Running Backs

By | at February 10, 2015 4:06 pm

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to running backs. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

While the free agent market for quarterbacks lacks a real difference-maker, that’s not the case at running back. The position may have become devalued in recent years, but the lack of impact deals in free agency last winter could largely be attributed to the lack of impact players available. If the NFL’s leading rusher (Murray) hits the open market, he’ll do very well, despite potential concerns about his 2014 workload, or about a production drop-off behind a new offensive line.

Murray isn’t the only potential starter in this group. Mathews and Ingram have been inconsistent since entering the league as first-round draft picks, but have shown plenty of promise, and should provide value if they can stay healthy. Gore and Forsett will both be on the wrong side of 30 by the end of 2015, but are coming off very impressive 2014 campaigns, and I’d bet on them having something left in the tank.

Outside of Murray, the most intriguing name on this list might be Spiller. Like Mathews and Ingram, he has been plagued by injuries in recent years, but his big-play ability makes him very appealing, especially if he comes on the cheap. I could envision Spiller approaching free agency the same way that Jeremy Maclin did a year ago, taking a one-year deal with the hopes of having a big season and landing a more sizable contract the following year.

Rounding out this top tier: Bradshaw and Ridley, who will look to return from season-ending injuries; and Helu and Vereen, who will appeal to teams looking to add a receiving threat out of the backfield.

Other unrestricted options:

Most of the notable names on this list have huge question marks hovering over them as they prepare to enter the open market. McFadden has averaged 3.4 yards per carry or less for three consecutive seasons; Moreno is coming off elbow and ACL injuries that ended his year prematurely; Tate played for three different teams in 2014 and didn’t do much to impress at any of those three stops; and Rice’s production appeared to be on the decline even before he lost a season dealing with the aftermath of his domestic violence incident.

Are there worthwhile backups and change-of-pace options among this group? Sure. McKnight and Antone Smith are a couple of home-run hitters who could shine for the right team, and Powell has shown some potential. There are also several veterans on this list who could contribute on special teams, either in kick coverage or in the return game, which will give them a little more value than the more one-dimensional backs.

Still, given the going rate for running backs these days, many of these players will likely sign minimum-salary contracts with modest guarantees for the 2015 season, if they land with a team at all.

Restricted FAs:

In many cases, these young backs are insurance policies for veteran starters, and while they may not be as cheap as restricted free agents as they were during their first three seasons, their respective teams should have interest in bringing them back.

I anticipate that players like Cadet, Polk, and Dunbar, who have spent all three seasons with their current teams, will be good candidates for the low-end restricted free agent tender. Rainey and Todman should also receive tenders, and may be the backs in this group most likely to draw interest from rival suitors. Neither player figures to head into 2015 as the top running back on his team’s depth chart, but they’ve both been productive in their limited opportunities.

Asiata is perhaps the most recognizable name here, if only because his nine touchdowns in 2014 made him a popular – if unreliable – fantasy football commodity. The 27-year-old has only averaged 3.5 yards per carry in over 200 career attempts, and is older than most of the other players on this list. But with Adrian Peterson a good bet to be traded or released by the Vikings, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Minnesota bring back Asiata.

Previously:

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Recap Of 2015’s Major NFL Coaching Changes

By | at February 10, 2015 9:00 am

As I pointed out last summer when I examined the longest-tenured head coaches in the league, a coach’s job is rarely safe in the NFL. At the time, more than half of the league’s head coaches had been with their current teams for two years or less, and since then, seven more clubs have made changes.

And if a head coaching position is tenuous, that’s doubly true for offensive and defensive coordinators. Not only do new head coaches typically bring in their own OCs and DCs, regardless of the previous coach’s performance, but teams will often replace a coordinator on one side of the ball or the other following a disappointing season by his unit. Over half the teams in the NFL will make a change at either OC or DC (or both) this winter.

We’ve been following all the latest updates on head coaches and offensive and defensive coordinators with our trackers, but as hiring season winds down, it’s worth rounding up all the changes in one spot. So here are 2015’s new head coaches, offensive coordinators, and defensive coordinators, along with 2014’s HCs, OCs, and DCs that have since found jobs elsewhere….

Head coaches:

Offensive coordinators:

Defensive coordinators:

Other 2014 head coaches with new jobs:

  • Jacksonville Jaguars: Hired former Bills HC Doug Marrone as assistant head coach and offensive line coach.
  • New Orleans Saints: Hired former Raiders HC Dennis Allen as senior defensive assistant.
  • San Francisco 49ers: Hired former Raiders interim HC Tony Sparano as tight ends coach.
  • University of Michigan: Hired former 49ers HC Jim Harbaugh as head coach.

Other 2014 OCs, DCs with new jobs:

  • Baltimore Ravens: Hired former Jets OC Marty Mornhinweg as quarterbacks coach.
  • Buffalo Bills: Hired former Bears OC Aaron Kromer as offensive line coach.
  • Jacksonville Jaguars: Hired former Bills OC Nathaniel Hackett as quarterbacks coach.
  • San Diego Chargers: Hired former Falcons DC Mike Nolan as linebackers coach.
  • San Francisco 49ers: Hired former Raiders DC Jason Tarver as senior defensive assistant and outside linebackers coach.
  • Tennessee Titans: Hired former Steelers DC Dick LeBeau as assistant head coach.
  • University of Alabama: Hired former Bears DC Mel Tucker as defensive backs coach.
  • University of Georgia: Hired former Rams OC Brian Schottenheimer as offensive coordinator.
  • University of Michigan: Hired former Jaguars OC Jedd Fisch as passing game coordinator, quarterbacks coach, and wide receivers coach.
  • Washington: Hired former Cowboys OC Bill Callahan as offensive line coach.
  • Washington: Hired former Giants DC Perry Fewell as defensive backs coach.
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Offseason Outlook: New York Giants

By | at February 9, 2015 8:30 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Eli Manning, QB: $19,750,000
  2. Victor Cruz, WR: $8,125,000
  3. Will Beatty, T: $8,050,000
  4. Mathias Kiwanuka, LB:$7,450,000
  5. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB: $7,250,000
  6. Prince Amukamara, CB: $6,898,000
  7. Jon Beason, LB: $6,691,666
  8. Geoff Schwartz, G: $4,975,000
  9. J.D. Walton, C: $3,625,000
  10. Jameel McClain, LB: $3,400,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 9 overall pick
  • Acquired seventh-round pick from Broncos for Brandon McManus.

Other:

Overview

Needless to say, 2014 was not a banner year for football in the Big Apple. The Giants came into the season with hope – and even gave us a few early flashes of something promising – but fell into a vicious mid-season slump that they could not recover from.

Entering the year, there was buzz about the Giants’ offense under newly-hired offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo. Quarterback Eli Manning had his worst season in 2013, having thrown a league-high and career-high 27 interceptions. McAdoo, who was pushed by the front office even though he might not have been head coach Tom Coughlin‘s first choice – was expected to breathe fresh air into the Giants offense with the kind of inventive play calling that helped guide Aaron Rodgers for the preceding two seasons. Instead, Manning improved only marginally while the running game continued to sputter.

The defense, meanwhile, didn’t exactly help matters. Perry Fewell‘s unit went from sixth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA in 2013 to 25th in 2014. Coughlin furiously went to bat for Fewell when talking to the media and, presumably, did the same behind closed doors, but it wasn’t enough to save his job. After parting ways with Fewell, the Giants welcomed Steve Spagnuolo back to his old job after six years away. Spags served as the Ravens’ secondary coach in 2014 and Football Outsiders, Baltimore finished 15th in DVOA against the pass which is really quite admirable when considering how banged up their defensive backs were. The Giants have confidence in Spagnuolo, but former pupils Michael Strahan, Justin Tuck, and Osi Umenyiora aren’t walking through that door. It remains to be seen what Big Blue will do between now and the fall, but it stands to reason that he’ll have to do more with less.

Positions Of NeedJason Pierre-Paul

If the Giants are unable to retain Jason Pierre-Paul this offseason, the defensive end position automatically becomes their top need by a mile. Without JPP, Big Blue is left with a skeleton crew of headed by Robert Ayers and Damontre Moore at the bookends. The Giants likely can’t find an equal to Pierre-Paul this offseason if he walks, but they’d have to do the best they can to fill his shoes. The Giants aren’t going to find a bonafide superstar defensive end on the open market, leaving them to explore possible trades and, more likely, the upcoming draft. This year’s class includes Nebraska’s Randy Gregory as well as Missouri’s Shane Ray, Kentucky’s Alvin Dupree, and Trey Flowers of Arkansas. At this time, Gregory is regarded as the pick of the litter, though it’s far from guaranteed that he’ll be on the board at No. 9.

The Giants will also need to bolster their offensive line which was battered by injuries in 2014. Geoff Schwartz will be welcomed back after playing in just two games last season and he was so sorely missed that the Giants just might throw him an old school New Jersey Devils-style ticker tape parade in the Meadowlands parking lot. His return will mean a lot to Big Blue, but there’s more work to be done. The Giants are expected to plug Weston Richburg in at center and use Justin Pugh at guard or tackle, leaving one spot open. Ideally, the Giants would shift Pugh to the interior line and go out-of-house for a right tackle solution. Failing that, the Giants could theoretically stand pat with what they have: a line of left tackle Will Beatty, Schwartz, center J.D. Walton, guard Weston Richburg, and Pugh. However, after watching the Cowboys soar in 2014 behind an all-world offensive line, one has to think that the Giants will try and follow suit. In the draft, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Giants target Iowa tackle Brandon Scherff.

Like the defensive end position, the Giants could be in serious need of a safety depending on what happens with free agent Antrel Rolle and, probably to a lesser extent, Stevie Brown and Quintin Demps. Rolle is proven, but at 32 it’s not clear how much the Giants will be willing to spend in order to keep him. Internally, the Giants could turn to rising sophomore Nat Berhe and rising junior Cooper Taylor at safety, but neither one has a really strong track record. Berhe is the more realistic option between the two, but he’s still regarded by many as being a little too green. If the Giants are ready/able to spend big, Devin McCourty could be a free agent option for them. The Pats star and former Rutgers notable could be interested in a homecoming, but he probably won’t go for a major discount on his first massive payday.

The Giants linebacking corps likely needs to be addressed since Mark Herzlich and Jacquian Williams are free agents while there are serious question marks about Jon Beason looking ahead to the fall. Jameel McClain could be plugged in to fill a hole and Devon Kennard was a bright spot for the Giants last season, but the Giants would like to get a little younger and faster in that group if at all possible.

Beyond that, the Giants can be expected to look into defensive tackles. Ndamukong Suh‘s camp made it known in the middle of last season that he would like to play in New York and the Giants would surely love to make that a reality for him. Of course, with greater needs elsewhere, Suh probably isn’t walking through that door. Still, after allowing 2,162 rushing yards and 4.94 yards per carry last season, it remains a need as Johnathan Hankins requires a qualified partner.

Key Free Agents

For a long time, many questioned whether Pierre-Paul was the same player that burst onto the national landscape with a brilliant season in 2011. JPP continued to give those critics fuel during the first half of 2014 before changing the script in the season’s final six games. The 25-year-old (26 at the end of February) registered nine sacks, five QB hits, and 15 QB hurries to close out the year, a perfect advertisement for himself as he gets set for his next contract. Out of 67 eligible players, Pro Football Focus (subscription required) rated Pierre-Paul as as the league’s sixth best 4-3 defensive end. Giants owner John Mara is confident that Pierre-Paul will be in New York in 2015, which could be an indication that the Giants are prepared to use the franchise tag on him if necessary. However, GM Jerry Reese would certainly prefer not to dedicate ~$15MM worth of cap space to the defensive end. As we touched on before, however, the pool of available DEs beyond No. 90 is rather weak. The Giants just might have to pay more than they’d otherwise be comfortable with if they want to have an aggressive defensive line next season.

Rolle will be a key free agent for the Giants due to their lack of battle-tested alternatives on the depth chart, but the veteran is not expected to entertain a hometown discount. He’s believed to be looking for a three-year deal and if the Giants don’t give it to him, another team probably will. Elsewhere in the secondary, cornerback Walter Thurmond will be a priority for the Giants. Although he missed a good chunk of the season, the Giants would rather retain him at a fair price rather than attempt to replace him.

Possible Cap Casualties

Mathias Kiwanuka has restructured his contract multiple times in the past in the name of the greater good. Still, at his advanced age, he’s still overpriced with a $7.45MM cap hit. More importantly, he’s a potential impediment to re-signing Pierre-Paul. Kiwanuka is one of the longest-tenured members of the team and a fan favorite, but this could be where he and the Giants part ways.

Running back Rashad Jennings could be a post-June 1st cut for the Giants in order to save $2.25MM of cap space, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise for him to stay. Jennings, of course, was one of the many, many players to miss time for the Giants in 2014 due to injuries. Punter Steve Weatherford has a $3.075MM cap number and the Giants could save $1.325MM if they drop him. Dropping defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins would save the Giants $2.25MM versus his cap number of ~$2.9MM and would give the Giants a chance to give more burn to their younger defensive linemen. Assuming we see a revamp of the offensive line, J.D. Walton could be shown the door to save about $3MM against the cap.

Many have isolated Beason as a possible cap casualty given his age, proneness to injury, and the $3.5MM they’d save by cutting him. However, there’s no one in-house to really take his place in the middle and they’d still have to eat a good amount of dead money to drop him. It wasn’t long ago that the Giants made Beason one of just a few of their own free agents to be retained. Surely, they still see some promise in him, even if he’s had trouble staying on the field. Beason only played five games in 2014.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

Manning represents the largest salary cap hit on the Giants’ 2015 roster and the Giants could approach him about a contract extension in order to lock him up beyond 2015 and to help carve out some additional space in the upcoming league year. On the surface, one would say that Manning should be content with a repeat of his previous deal which paid him an average of $16.25MM per season given his recent play. But (stop me if you’ve heard this before), the price tag for starting quarterbacks has risen dramatically over the last few years and it’s not hard to see Manning’s camp pushing for a bit of a raise. Are the Giants willing to forgive and forget about Manning’s interception-laden 2013 and marry themselves to him at an increased cost? Conversely, GM Jerry Reese could opt to play out the year with Manning, but that would mean less improvement across the board for 2015 and a possible rebuilding effort heading into 2016.

In a distant second place, Victor Cruz represents the second-highest cap hit on their roster at $8.125MM. Cruz has four lears left on his deal with an average cap hit of $9MM. The base salary climbs each season and this year he’s scheduled to make $6.15MM. That’s not an unreasonable number for a healthy Cruz, but no one knows how much salsa dancing he’ll be doing in the years to come. Cruz tore the patellar tendon in his right knee during the Giants’ October contest against the Eagles, ending his season. In those six games, Cruz logged 337 receiving yards and a touchdown. If the Giants want to play hardball, they might be able to convince Cruz to knock a couple million off of his salary by playing up his injury concerns and the emergence of Odell Beckham Jr. as a top receiver in the NFL. It would be a surprise to see the Giants cut the fan favorite, however, as that would only save them about $2.4MM in cap space.

Overall Outlook

The Giants, who have won two Super Bowl rings under the tutelage of Coughlin, have seen better days. Still, the NFC East isn’t exactly murderer’s row. Washington doesn’t look the part of a contender, no one knows which version of the Eagles will show up in 2015, and the Cowboys could be faced with replacing last season’s offensive player of the year. Much of how the Giants’ season goes will depend on whether they can keep Pierre-Paul in 2015 — and at what price. If JPP stays put without crippling the Giants’ cap room, then they can retool the roster in a hurry and get back to their winning ways.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Market For Quarterbacks

By | at February 9, 2015 2:32 pm

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position, starting today with quarterbacks. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

Outside of Moore and Ponder – who have combined for more than 60 career NFL starts in past seasons – everyone in this group saw at least a little time in a starting lineup during the 2014 season. Of course, many of them didn’t finish the season as starters, or were only forced into duty due to injuries.

Nonetheless, if a club is looking to the free agent market for a veteran to compete for a starting job with its incumbent QB, this is probably the first group of players that team will consider. Sanchez and Hoyer are perhaps the top available options here, as both players showed several flashes of effectiveness as they led their respective teams to records of .500 or better during their starts.

Other intriguing names on this list include Mallett, who backed up Tom Brady for several seasons before getting a brief look in Houston; Locker and Ponder, 2011 first-rounders who were relegated to backup roles during the final year of their rookie contracts; and Moore, who has been one of the league’s most highly-paid No. 2 QBs for the last two seasons.

Other unrestricted options:

Whether you’re looking for a veteran who can play in a pinch (Campbell, Hasselbeck) or a younger option with some upside (Taylor, Tolzien), there’s something for everyone in this group — albeit not many names that inspire excitement.

McCoy and Clausen had some good moments during their limited playing time in 2014, and Jackson hasn’t been terrible during his stints as a starter. Still, none of those three players should be more than backups at this point in their playing careers, and the same goes for virtually everyone else on this list as well. In some cases, these guys were listed third on their respective teams’ depth charts.

I’d expect a good percentage of these players to return to their current teams, or to follow an old coach or coordinator to his new club. When it comes to backup quarterbacks, familiarity with an offensive system is crucial, and would certainly be a tiebreaker if the gap in talent between two players is marginal. Flynn might be the best example of this, as he hasn’t had much success anywhere besides Green Bay.

Restricted FAs:

Davis and Lindley saw some action in 2014, but neither player was overly effective — Lindley, in particular, had a ton of trouble moving the Cardinals’ offense when he was forced into action after injuries knocked out Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton. Generally, if a team wants to keep a restricted free agent, that team has most of the leverage, so if one of these players is wearing a different uniform in 2015, I expect it’ll be because his club had little to no interest in re-signing him.

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