Extension Candidate: Devin McCourty
Despite a reputation for mastering the draft process, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick’s record of procuring and developing defensive back talent isn’t very impressive. Over the past decade, Belichick has regrettably used first- and second-round picks on players such such as Terrence Wheatley (2008), Darius Butler (2009), and Ras-I Dowling (2
011), each of whom failed to live up to expectations. Not every attempt to add pieces to the New England secondary has been a disaster, as Brandon Meriweather (2007) and Patrick Chung (2009) proved somewhat useful during their tenure with the Pats. However, no Patriots defensive back draft selection of the past ten years has matched the production of 2010 first-rounder Devin McCourty, whose rookie contract expires after this season.
Since joining the Patriots four years ago, the 27-year-old McCourty has displayed impressive versatility in addition to excellent play. During his first two seasons in the league, he played strictly cornerback, and was employed primarily on the left side of the defense. The Rutgers product regressed from his rookie season to his sophomore campaign — though he graded as the league’s seventh-best CB in 2010, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), he fell to 57th in 2011. McCourty was still effective against the run in ’11, but his coverage grade lagged, which might have factored into New England’s decision to convert him to safety.
The positional transformation began in 2012, as McCourty began splitting his snaps between corner and safety. He spent more time at S (about 57% of his snaps), and PFF rated him as above-average at both positions. McCourty’s best season to-date came last year, when he finished with 58 tackles and one interception in 15 games, and ended up as the No. 1 safety in the league per PFF’s metrics. He’s started every game this season, and been a factor in both pass and run coverage, accruing 20 tackles and one pick.
Given that the Patriots added Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner via free agency during the offseason, it’s a little surprising that their pass defense isn’t among the NFL’s elite. New England ranks 19th in passing yards allowed, 11th in yards per attempt allowed, and 16th in pass defense DVOA. However, Browner didn’t play until Week 6 following a suspension, so the unit has had much time to mesh. Additionally, the Patriots pass-rush isn’t special, meaning opposing quarterbacks have a lot of time to attack New England’s secondary. Though they rank 13th in sacks, the Pats are 28th in adjusted sack rate, a figure that doesn’t figure to improve as long as Chandler Jones is sidelined with an injury.
Nevertheless, it seems to be a given that the Patriots would want to retain McCourty, who was named an All-Pro in both 2010 and 2013. Given that Revis won’t return to New England unless he negotiates a new deal (he’s signed for 2015, but with a $25MM cap charge, he’ll be cut), the Patriots probably want to keep their leader in the secondary around. News surrounding McCourty extension talks has been slim, but Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com reported in early August that two sides had exchanged initial proposals, but weren’t overly close to an agreement. At the time, La Canfora noted that talks could heat up before the season; while that obviously didn’t happen, it wouldn’t be shock to see a deal struck in-season.
McCourty is earning $3.92MM in base salary this season. Add in his prorated roster bonus, and a $50K workout bonus, and he counts $5.115MM against the cap. When discussing an extension, he and his representatives would surely look to either match or exceed the deals signed by Earl Thomas and Jairus Byrd earlier this year. Both are rangy free safeties like McCourty, as opposed to in-the-box strong safeties like Dashon Goldson, so their contracts work well as comparables. Thomas’ deal was an extension, however, while Byrd joined the Saints via free agency, so his contract might present the better option for locating a benchmark.
Thomas, who is two years younger than McCourty, received $40MM over four years, with nearly half ($19.725MM) guaranteed. McCourty has been the better player since he made the switch to full-time safety per PFF, but the advanced metrics aren’t the be-all, end-all of player evaluation. Soft factors are important, as well — McCourty doesn’t have the reputation that Thomas, regarded as the league’s best safety, does. Additionally, Thomas was coming off a season as a key component of one of the best pass defenses in NFL history as he discussed an extension with Seattle; McCourty, as noted, plays on a below-average unit.
I don’t think McCourty will be able to match Thomas’ contract; at $10MM per season, Thomas redefined the market for safeties in a way that I don’t believe McCourty can. But $9MM a per year, the same amount Byrd received, should be in reach for McCourty. And while Byrd only got 33.9% of his total deal guaranteed, McCourty would likely see more than that — I’d peg it closer to Thomas’ 49.3%, so perhaps around $17MM over a four-year contract. In total, a four-year extension worth roughly $37MM, with $17-18MM guaranteed, would make sense for both sides. The Patriots like to use in-game roster bonuses in their deals, but given that McCourty doesn’t have an injury history or character concerns, I wouldn’t expect them to be too large.
New England’s fiscal situation shouldn’t present a barrier to negotiations. The Patriots currently have $4.281MM in 2015 cap space available, but they can save about $3.3MM by releasing Danny Amendola and Michael Hoomanawanui. The club can clear an additional ~$7.567MM by parting ways with veteran defensive tackle Vince Wilfork, a move that seems likely given his lack of production this season.
If a deal can’t be worked out, the club has the option to place the franchise tag on McCourty. Safety had the third-cheapest tag figure in 2014, exceeding only tight end and kicker/punter, and that probably won’t change next season. The number itself will rise from $8.433MM, but so will the league-wide salary cap, so the figure shouldn’t present a problem. Securing a player with McCourty’s talent on a one-year deal for around $9MM would be a steal, but both the team and the player would surely like to work out a contract that enables McCourty to remain in New England for the forseeable future.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
PFR Originals: 11/2/14 – 11/9/14
The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- We’ve crossed the halfway point of the NFL season, and injuries are starting to play a major part in teams’ success. With that in mind, Luke Adams examined both the highest-paid players on injured reserve and which teams have the most salary on IR.
- Prior to Carson Palmer signing a three-year extension with the Cardinals, Rory Parks profiled the veteran quarterback in a prescient Extension Candidate post.
- In the wake of Adrian Peterson‘s acceptance of a no-contest plea, Luke asked if the Vikings running back should be reinstated. About 54% of readers believe Peterson should be able to return to game action in Week 11. Thanks for voting!
Teams With Most Salary On Injured Reserve
On Friday, we took a look at the league’s highest-paid players to land on season-ending injured reserve. As I explained in that post, teams have control over how they use their cap space, but have little control over players’ injuries, so if highly-paid players end up on injured reserve, clubs may have limited flexibility to adequately replace them.
The next logical step then is to examine which teams have been the hit the hardest overall by season-ending injuries this year. Of course, a player’s cap number doesn’t necessarily reflect his importance – many of the league’s best players are underpaid – but when clubs devote significant chunks of their cap room to certain players, having those guys go down with injuries can be hard to overcome.
Listed below are the 14 teams who currently have more than $10MM in player salaries on season-ending injured reserve. Players who received the designation to return when they were placed on IR aren’t taken into account here, since those players could still contribute this season. Additionally, players on practice squad IR lists aren’t included, and cap numbers rather than base salaries are considered when adding up a team’s total IR cap hit. Here’s the top 14:
- St. Louis Rams: $30,605,636 (seven players)
- New York Giants: $22,033,726 (12)
- Oakland Raiders: $21,844,733 (8)
- Washington: $15,984,975 (7)
- Tennessee Titans: $15,202,696 (7)
- Atlanta Falcons: $14,885,479 (7)
- Jacksonville Jaguars: $14,617,538 (10)
- Arizona Cardinals: $14,230,500 (4)
- Philadelphia Eagles: $12,858,000 (5)
- Miami Dolphins: $12,567,956 (8)
- Chicago Bears: $11,210,500 (4)
- Cleveland Browns: $11,147,375 (4)
- Dallas Cowboys: $11,121,121 (7)
- San Diego Chargers: $10,316,892 (7)
So is there any correlation between a team’s “dead money” on the injured reserve list and its record? On the whole, the 13 clubs on this list combine for a 52-65 record thus far, which isn’t great. However, it gets a whole lot worse when we separate the top half from the bottom half — the first seven teams on this list have combined for an incredibly dismal 14-44 record.
Would some of those teams have been cellar-dwellers even without injury problems? Most likely. It’s hard to imagine a team like the Raiders, for instance, as even a .500 squad if they’d stayed completely healthy. Still, a few of those clubs were expected to compete for playoff spots, and the fact that they’ve fallen well out of contention likely has at least something to do with how much of their cap space is currently being devoted to players who aren’t actually playing.
Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.
Highest-Paid Players On Injured Reserve
Every one of the NFL’s 32 teams has control over how it spends its money and uses its cap space, but clubs have far less control over ensuring that their players avoid injuries. Given how many fluke collisions and non-contact injuries we see end seasons every year, a team needs a certain amount of luck to remain relatively healthy over the course of a 16-game season.
Through this season’s first nine weeks, every NFL team has had multiple players land on season-ending injured reserve, and in many cases, those clubs now have a decent chunk of their overall cap commitments sitting on IR. As one of our PFR Glossary entries outlines, “dead money” is a term applied to cap hits for players who are no longer on a team’s roster, but the cap numbers for players on injured reserve can be viewed as another form of dead money. These players’ seasons are over, and they aren’t counting toward their respective teams’ 53-man rosters, but their salaries still count against the cap.
Listed below are the top 10 highest-paid players by 2014 cap hit who have landed on season-ending injured reserve this season. Players who were given the designation to return aren’t included here.
- Sam Bradford (QB), Rams: $17.61MM
- Brian Orakpo (LB), Washington: $11.455MM
- Alex Mack (C), Browns: $10MM
- Paul Posluszny (LB), Jaguars: $9.5MM
- Jake Long (T), Rams: $9.25MM
- Darnell Dockett (DT), Cardinals: $8.75MM
- Dannell Ellerbe (LB), Dolphins: $7.425MM
- Victor Cruz (WR), Giants: $7.424MM
- Jerod Mayo (LB), Patriots: $7.288MM
- Tyvon Branch (S), Raiders: $7.157MM
As this list shows, some teams have had worse luck than others, and some of those clubs have been able to overcome that bad luck better than others. The Rams have two players in the top five of this list, and that doesn’t even take into account defensive end Chris Long, who is on IR with the designation to return and whose $12MM+ cap hit would rank second behind Bradford if he were included on this list. With well over $30MM in salaries currently sitting on IR, it’s hardly a surprise that the Rams have struggled this season and sit in last place in the NFC West.
Other cellar-dwelling teams like the Jaguars and Raiders have a player on this list too, but some teams have held their own despite losing key players — the Cardinals, Browns, and Patriots are among the clubs who have a highly-paid player on IR and still currently have a hold on a playoff spot due to their depth.
Here are the rest of the highest-paid players on IR who round out the top 25 of the current list:
- DeMeco Ryans (LB), Eagles: $6.9MM
- Michael Roos (T), Titans: $6.625MM
- Nick Hardwick (C), Chargers: $6.15MM
- Sam Baker (T), Falcons: $6.05MM
- Matt Cassel (QB), Vikings: $5.75MM
- Stephen Tulloch (LB), Lions: $5.05MM
- Lamarr Houston (DE), Bears: $5.04MM
- Mike DeVito (DE), Chiefs: $4.9MM
- LaMarr Woodley (DE), Raiders: $4.844MM
- Derrick Johnson (LB), Chiefs: $4.55MM
- Morris Claiborne (CB), Cowboys: $4.436MM
- Sean Weatherspoon (LB), Falcons: $4.133MM
- B.J. Raji (DT), Packers): $4MM
- John Abraham (LB), Cardinals: $3.925MM
- Nick Roach (LB), Raiders: $3.771MM
Later this weekend, we’ll take a look at the teams with the most total salary on injured reserve to see exactly how these players are affecting their respective clubs as a whole.
Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.
Extension Candidate: Carson Palmer
We learned several weeks ago that the Cardinals had opened extension talks with quarterback Carson Palmer, who is set to become a free agent at the end of the 2014 campaign. The Cardinals have been desperate for consistency under center since Kurt Warner retired after the 2009 season, and their search has taken them through eight different quarterbacks in a little less than five years.
Given Arizona’s quarterback woes and the success that Palmer and second-year head coach Bruce Arians have enjoyed together—the Cardinals are 14-7 under Arians when Palmer starts—it is easy to see why the team would want to secure Palmer’s services for at least the next couple of seasons. This is despite Palmer’s age (35) and recent injury history.
Although Drew Stanton went 2-1 this year in Palmer’s absence, the 30-year-old did little to prove that he is anything more than a career backup, and fourth-round rookie Logan Thomas is very much a work in progress. Furthermore, the top quarterbacks in the 2015 free agent class, assuming neither is re-signed by their current clubs, are Michael Vick and Brian Hoyer, and the 7-1 Cardinals are unlikely to have a shot at the top signal-callers in the 2015 draft unless they trade up.
As our Zach Links pointed out, even with the shortage of quality quarterbacks available, Palmer is unlikely to receive a significant hike in annual salary. He is earning $9MM this year, and that seems to be about right for a quarterback who is having something of a late-career renaissance but who does have age and injury concerns.
Palmer has amassed a 99.3 quarterback rating this season, throwing 11 touchdown passes to just two interceptions, and Pro Football Focus (subscription required) rates him as a solid but unspectacular passer, akin to Alex Smith and Andy Dalton. The naked eye test supports the PFF assessment, but as of right now, Arizona does not need Palmer to be an All-Pro. The Cardinals simply need continued stability and consistency, which, combined with their excellent defense, have created a surprising championship contender.
So if Palmer does not get a big boost in average annual value if and when he signs an extension with Arizona, and if Arians is right in his prediction that Palmer can play until he is 36 or 37, then a two-year pact worth between $20-22MM would appear to work well for both sides. The Cardinals could continue to groom Thomas, if they still believe in him, and the young talent they have at the offensive skill positions—not to mention the return of players like Daryl Washington and Darnell Dockett on the defensive side of the ball—should keep the Cards in contention for at least a wild card berth during the life of Palmer’s deal.
Wherever his next contract takes him, it will likely be the last in what has been an up-and-down, but nonetheless successful, career, the highlight of which may be yet to come.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
PFR Originals: 10/26/14 – 11/2/14
The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- Many names were bandied about as trade candidates before Tuesday’s deadline, but there were only two deals: Mark Barron to the Rams, and Jonathan Casillas to the Patriots. Luke Adams looked at the 2015 outlook for the some of those rumored trade candidates, detailing both their contract status and role for next year.
- Luke also examined several impact players who will soon return to contending teams, from injured Lions rookie linebacker Kyle Van Noy, to suspended Browns receiver Josh Gordon.
- In the latest entries in our Extension Candidate series, I profiled Saints running back Mark Ingram (link), while Luke looked at Broncos linebacker Von Miller (link).
- Before Tuesday’s trade deadline, Rory Parks asked which player was most likely to be dealt. Buccaneers receiver Vincent Jackson, who ultimately stayed put, was the No. 1 response at about 27%.
- Cam Newton isn’t open to Colin Kaepernick-esque, pay-as-you-go type extension, so Luke wondered what the Panther quarterback’s next contract will look like. Despite Newton’s protestations, the majority of you believe that he will ultimately accept a deal in the mold of Kaepernick’s.
- The Seahawks and the 49ers met in last year’s NFC Championship, but this season has been a struggle for both clubs. Luke asked if either team will make the playoffs this year, and 41% of respondents believe that while Seattle will head to the postseason, San Francisco will stay home.
- Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.
- Check out our new Trade Rumors app, available for both iOS and Android.
Extension Candidate: Von Miller
Although they came into the season looking up at the defending-champion Seahawks, having been steamrolled by Russell Wilson and company back in February’s Super Bowl, the Broncos have since established themselves as 2014’s best team through eight weeks. At 6-1, Denver’s only loss came against those aforementioned Seahawks, and that was an overtime contest that could’ve gone either way. With solid victories against the Colts, Chiefs, Cardinals, 49ers, and Chargers also on their 2014 resumé, the Broncos head into the second half in pole position for the AFC’s top seed.
Everything is firing on all cylinders now for the Broncos, but at season’s end, the team will have several tough decisions to make. Impact players like wideouts Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker, tight end Julius Thomas, and cornerback Chris Harris face potential unrestricted free agency, and with about $108MM in salaries already on the books for 2015, the team may not have the flexibility to retain all its key players.
While those players whose deals expire at the end of the 2014 season will likely be Denver’s top priorities, the team also figures to address another important contract situation this offseason, with standout linebacker Von Miller eligible for an extension. Denver picked up its fifth-year option on Miller this past spring, meaning he’s under contract for a $9.754MM salary in 2015. However, it may be in both sides’ best interests to work out a longer-term agreement, one that locks up Miller for a few additional years and perhaps lowers his cap hit for ’15.
Two years ago, Miller was one of the league’s best defensive players in just his second NFL season, piling up 18.5 sacks and forcing six fumbles for the Broncos, earning himself a Pro Bowl spot and a First-Team All-Pro nod. 2013 was a struggle for Miller though, beginning with a six-game suspension for attempting to cheat a drug test and ending with a torn ACL that ended his year early. In between, the former second overall pick also recorded just five sacks in nine games and dealt with off-field legal issues.
As such, 2014 was an important year for Miller as the team assessed which soon-to-be free agents would be part of the long-term plans in Denver, and which were more expendable. So far, the 25-year-old’s play hasn’t left any doubt — the Broncos should do everything they can to lock him up. Through seven games, only Justin Houston of the divisional-rival Chiefs has more sacks (10) than Miller’s nine.
Of course, even in 2013, an apparent down year, advanced metrics suggested that Miller was far and away the best 4-3 outside linebacker in the league. Since he entered the NFL in 2011, Miller has ranked atop the list of qualified players at the position, and it hasn’t been close, according to Pro Football Focus’ data (subscription required). Miller’s grades of +48.2, +82.6, +42.8, and +26.4 have given him a double-digit margin over the runner-up in each of his four seasons, and have provided an indication of just how good he is against the run as well as the pass — his grade as a run defender has placed first among 4-3 OLBs in each of his four seasons.
There’s no question then that any team would love to have Miller on the field, and if he were a model citizen off the field, it would probably be just a matter of time until he signed one of the most lucrative contract extensions in all of football. But those off-field problems that have nagged Miller throughout his career figure to come up in contract negotiations, even if accounts out of Denver this season suggest that the Texas A&M product is developing into one of the Broncos’ leaders on defense. With the NFL facing increased public scrutiny in recent months, the league’s policies and penalties for off-field transgressions could become more punitive, and the risk of future suspensions for Miller might make the Broncos shy away from making a massive investment.
Still, it’s hard to downplay Miller’s on-field contributions. With the exception of J.J. Watt and perhaps a couple other players, no defender in the league has the sort of impact at his position that Miller does. Offseason additions like Aqib Talib, T.J. Ward, and DeMarcus Ware have played a part in the Broncos’ improved defense this season, but Miller is the unit’s most valuable piece, and I’d be shocked if the club ever let him reach the open market, even if there are lingering concerns about his off-field conduct.
In order to re-sign players like the Thomases and Harris in the offseason, the Broncos may look to reduce Miller’s $9.754MM cap hit for 2015 by signing him to an extension that pushes some of that money back to future seasons. If the two sides do try to work something out this winter, recent contracts signed by pass rushers like Tamba Hali and Trent Cole could serve as a baseline for Miller’s new deal. Given his astronomical numbers, I’d expect a deal for Miller to exceed the $11.5-12MM annual salaries secured by those players and perhaps land in the neighborhood of contracts signed by Charles Johnson, Robert Quinn, or even Mario Williams.
Those three deals range from four to six years, at a rate of $12.5-16MM per season, with between $15-32MM in guaranteed money. Based on Miller’s history and the Broncos’ typical method for structuring contracts, I could picture the two sides agreeing to a deal for something in the neighborhood of five years and $70-75MM, with a fairly modest guarantee — perhaps $15MM or so. An offer like that would give Miller the opportunity to earn significant annual salaries while giving the team some insurance in case the veteran’s off-field issues resurface.
General manager John Elway and company aren’t likely to address Miller’s contract, or any others, until after the season, but these negotiations shouldn’t be overlooked, even as the team attempts to re-sign Peyton Manning‘s top receivers (Thomas and Thomas) and the defense’s best cornerback (Harris). Playing out the 2015 season with Miller on a one-year deal is a possibility, particularly if the team wants to see him continue to mature, but this winter could be the best time to hammer out a long-term contract from a financial perspective.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Extension Candidate: Mark Ingram
It’s become almost cliché to note that the running back position has been severely devalued in today’s NFL, but glance at most any financial or statistical metric and you’ll quickly reach that conclusion. Consider the 2014 free agent running back class, which, while admittedly lackluster and not comparable to the potentially fruitful 2015 RB crop, featured veterans such as Chris Johnson and Darren McFadden, useful role players like Donald Brown and Knowshon Moreno, and backs who seemingly just needed more opportunity in
Ben Tate and Rashad Jennings. Despite the league’s salary cap being raised by more than nine percent, running back contracts bottomed out, with Johnson receiving the highest annual average value at $4MM, and Brown, at $10MM, garnering the largest total deal.
The league’s offensive schemes have changed, as teams are attempting passes at a far greater clip than they are rushing the ball. Since the turn of the century, league-wide pass attempts have risen steadily, while rushing attempts have decreased at nearly the same rate. This season, clubs are running the ball on just 42% of offensive plays. Additionally, the “featured back” is becoming a concept of yesteryear, meaning that no one runner is able to solely elevate his value through repeated opportunities. In each season since 2010, for example, we’ve seen an average of just four running backs per season receive 300 or more carries. In the 20 seasons prior, an average of 7.25 RBs per season attempted 300+ rushes, a 55% increase. Running back has become a position attended to by a committee, so the league as a whole doesn’t positively assess many singular backs.
The draft is another market that has decided running backs are not a worthwhile investment. No RBs were selected in the first round of either the 2013 or the 2014 draft. Four were chosen in the two years prior, but Trent Richardson, chosen third overall in 2012, was the anomaly who was not a end-of-the-round selection. Doug Martin, selected in the same draft as Richardson, went to the Buccaneers at pick No. 31. In 2011, the Giants took David Wilson thirty-second overall, while the player who has been the most successful to this point was chosen four spots earlier. With the No. 28 pick in the ’11 draft, the Saints selected Mark Ingram out of Alabama.
Ingram, of course, had won the Heisman Trophy as the NCAA’s best football player during his sophomore season in 2009. Drafted to be teamed with a New Orleans running back contingent that already consisted of Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, and Chris Ivory, Ingram largely disappointed over his first three seasons in the NFL. Despite leading the Saints’ backfield in carries during that span, Ingram never topped 650 yards rushing or five touchdowns, and wasn’t a factor in the passing game. In fact, Ingram’s approximate value during his first three years in the NFL ranks fourth-lowest among running backs selected in the first round since 2000 during the same stretch of their careers.
New Orleans management was obviously unimpressed, as well, as they declined Ingram’s fifth-year option, meaning that he will be an unrestricted free agent after this season. It’s a move that general manger Mickey Loomis & Co. have probably come to regret, as Ingram is enjoying his finest season as an NFL player. After Sproles was traded during the offseason, Thomas and fellow runner Khiry Robinson dealt with injuries, leaving Ingram as the lead back. Despite missing two games with a hand ailment, Ingram has rushed 88 times for 431 yards, and scored six times. He’s also caught eight balls in just five games; he averaged eight receptions per season during the first three years of his career. Advanced metrics are also a fan of Ingram’s work. Despite his low snap totals, Pro Football Focus (subscription required) grades Ingram as the 11th-best running back in the league among 59 qualifiers. Football Outsiders sets the line of demarcation for its statistics at 64 rushing attempts, which Ingram doesn’t meet. But among RBs with 63 or fewer carries, Ingram is first in DYAR and third in DVOA.
Despite his current level of production, Ingram might not be with the Saints for long. Ian Rapoport of NFL.com reported yesterday that the 24-year-old is expected to hit free agency at the end of the season. If New Orleans doesn’t want to lock Ingram up with a long-term deal just yet, they do have the option of retaining him via the franchise tag. However, given that the club declined to spend the $5.2MM it would have taken to keep Ingram via the fifth-year option, it’s doubtful that it would now guarantee him north of $10MM by using the franchise tender. Additionally, the Saints probably don’t even have the cap space to use a franchise tag. Over the Cap’s data shows New Orleans with negative cap room for 2015, at more than $18MM in the red. The team will obviously have to do some financial maneuvering and/or hope that the salary cap rises dramatically, but it’s still unlikely they’d use any cap relief on a franchise tag for Ingram.
Regardless of whether Ingram stays in New Orleans or leaves via free agency, I don’t think his contract numbers will be that different. Specifically, I think that his final dollar amount received will be rather modest, far less than most might think. For one, he’s part of a relatively loaded free agent class of running backs — DeMarco Murray, Shane Vereen, Frank Gore, Ryan Mathews, Stevan Ridley, and C.J. Spiller are playing on expiring contracts. And though many of those players have their warts (age, injury concerns), it’s still a strong crop, meaning that RB-needy teams will have options to choose from.
If he stays healthy for the rest of his historic season, Murray will earn the most among the backs listed, and Ingram is a strong contender to earn the second-most favorable contract. But it’s doubtful that any FA back receives the type of deals that LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, or Marshawn Lynch got. Those four backs are making between $7.3MM and $9MM per season, and were guaranteed between $13.8MM and $20.77MM. Murray could conceivably sneak into the back of that salary range (though I personally doubt it), but Ingram is probably a pay level, or two below.
Like quarterback contracts before Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, and Alex Smith were extended, running back deals don’t have much of a middle-tier. The upper-level group earns $7MM+ on what are mostly extensions, and the lower tier, made up mostly of free agents, make $4MM or less in AAV. The only contracts in between are rookie deals paying the likes of Spiller, Mathews, and Richardson. Gore makes about $6.4MM per year, which should set the ceiling for Ingram. Gore was a much more proven player when he signed his deal than Ingram is now, and was constantly putting up 1,000+ yard seasons. Ingram’s floor will probably be that of the 2014 FA running class, or about $4MM.
Ingram, like Kaepernick et al., could potentially break new ground and establish a fresh mid-tier level of contracts. An average annual value in the neighborhood of $5.5MM would do just that, and would be fair value for Ingram. I could see him receiving something like $9-10MM in guarantees over the course of a four-year deal. It’s a contract that the Saints likely won’t be able to afford, and given their affinity for crowded backfields, probably wouldn’t even try to match. But another team in need of a running back might be able to lock up Ingram at a relatively reasonable rate, and hope that 2014 Ingram is the true version of the player, as opposed to the 2011-13 model.
Returning Impact Players For Contenders
The NFL’s second half is getting underway this week, and it’s not too early to point to specific games as crucial for playoff positioning, as teams jockey for divisions and Wild Card openings. Last night’s contest between the Saints and Panthers, for instance, could ultimately have a real impact on which team wins the NFC South.
As we near the home stretch of the 2014 season, several teams could get a boost from returning players who have been sidelined for most or all of the year. These players won’t necessarily swing playoff races, but their teams will certainly welcome them back with open arms as a way of fortifying rosters that may be plagued by various injuries and ailments.
Listed below are a handful of players worth keeping an eye on during the season’s second half. These players are on track to return from longer-term injuries or suspensions, and could have an impact down the stretch, perhaps helping to buoy their respective teams into postseason berths. While the returns of other players, like Cincinnati’s A.J. Green, will also obviously be massive for their respective teams, shorter-term absences like Green’s aren’t noted here.
Cincinnati Bengals: Tyler Eifert (TE)
Green’s return may have a more significant impact on the Bengals’ offense, but Eifert shouldn’t be overlooked. The young tight end was expected to take on a larger role this season, and had already caught three balls in the team’s Week 1 contest before he suffered a dislocated elbow. Since he received the designation to return when he was placed on IR, Eifert is eligible to practice now and is expected to be activated for the club’s Week 11 game against the Saints.
Cleveland Browns: Josh Gordon (WR)
The Browns currently sit in last place in the competitive AFC North, so it’s fair to question whether they’re a legit contender. Still, at 4-3, they’re right on the heels of the division-leading 4-2-1 Bengals, and with a soft schedule and the 2013’s leading receiver due back soon, there’s reason for optimism in Cleveland. Taking into account the Browns’ bye, Gordon’s 10-game ban means he’s eligible to return for Week 12, and it’ll be interesting to see what Brian Hoyer – or, perhaps, Johnny Manziel – can do during the season’s final six weeks with a weapon like Gordon at his disposal.
Dallas Cowboys: Demarcus Lawrence (DE/OLB)
We’ve yet to see what Lawrence is capable of at the NFL level, since the first half of his rookie season has been wiped out by a broken foot. But this is a player for whom the Cowboys traded up to No. 34 in May’s draft, and the team is looking forward to getting him back this weekend. Dallas’ defense has been surprisingly effective so far, but it certainly hasn’t been infallible, and a player like Lawrence will help fortify the team’s pass rush. It’s also worth monitoring defensive tackle Josh Brent, whose 10-game ban will soon expire — Brent may not see a ton of snaps right away, but the fact that the Cowboys have stuck with him indicates he remains very much in the team’s plans.
Detroit Lions: Kyle Van Noy (LB)
Like Lawrence, Van Noy is an early second-round pick who we’ve yet to see play in a regular season game. Of course, the Lions’ defense has been so effective that the team can afford to ease Van Noy in slowly if it so chooses, but this is a player who was initially penciled in as a three-down starter during the preseason. While he may not receive that kind of workload when he returns this weekend, I expect he’ll become a bigger part of Detroit’s D by December.
Philadelphia Eagles: Jason Kelce (C), Evan Mathis (G)
Eagles fans and LeSean McCoy‘s fantasy owners alike will welcome the return of this standout duo of interior offensive linemen. Kelce appears ready to return to action this weekend, while Mathis is expected to be activated for the following week, which is great news for an offensive line that has been shorthanded virtually all season. Assuming Kelce and Mathis are both healthy and remain as effective as ever, McCoy should start finding a few more holes and Nick Foles may be a little more comfortable in the pocket.
San Diego Chargers: Melvin Ingram (LB), Ryan Mathews (RB), Manti Te’o (LB)
Few – if any – teams have been hit harder this season by injuries than the Chargers, but reinforcements are on the way. In addition to players like Brandon Flowers and Jeremiah Attaochu being on the mend, the trio noted here is recovering well from longer-term injuries. Ingram, Mathews, and Te’o have each been sidelined since at least Week 3, but if all goes well, all three players could be back in action again following the club’s Week 10 bye.
San Francisco 49ers: NaVorro Bowman (LB), Aldon Smith (LB)
Heading into the season, many pundits viewed the Niners as a candidate to fall out of the postseason this year in large part due to the extended absences of Bowman and Smith. The team has hung in there so far though, and should finally be getting their standout linebackers back in November. Even if Smith’s nine-game ban isn’t reduced by a game or two, a rumor which appears increasingly unlikely, he’ll be eligible to return for the Niners’ Week 11 contest against the Giants, and I’d expect Bowman to be back a week or two after that. With December showdowns against the Seahawks, Chargers, and Cardinals on tap, San Francisco could be getting two of its best defenders back just in time to affect the playoff picture.
Outlook For Trade Candidates Who Stayed Put
As is typically the case, the 2014 trade deadline was a fairly quiet affair. While the Seahawks and Jets made headlines earlier this month when they completed a swap that sent Percy Harvin to New York, Tuesday’s actual deadline day didn’t feature those sort of fireworks. The Buccaneers were the NFL’s only real seller, shipping former first-round safety Mark Barron to the Rams and linebacker Jonathan Casillas to New England.
Even though Tampa Bay was active at the deadline, the team still held onto several notable players who had been frequently cited as trade candidates in recent weeks, including Vincent Jackson, Doug Martin, and Dashon Goldson. And there were many other players around the league who appeared to be viable trade candidates who weren’t moved, and remain with their teams.
So it’s worth examining what the outlook is for those players as the 2014 season enters its home stretch and the offseason looms. In some instances, the fact that these players were viewed as guys who could – or should – be dealt suggests that their days with their current clubs are limited, but that’s not always the case. Starting with those three Bucs who stayed put, let’s take a closer look at the futures of 10 players who were mentioned at least as trade candidates, but weren’t dealt by Tuesday afternoon….
Vincent Jackson (WR), Buccaneers
Contract situation: Under contract through 2016. Owed base salary of $9.778MM in 2015 ($12.21MM cap hit).
2015 outlook: Jackson’s ’15 base salary and cap hit are nearly identical to his ’14 figures, so if the Bucs were willing to keep him around at those figures this season, it stands to reason that they could do so again next year. Of course, coming into 2014, Jackson had averaged 75 receptions, 1,304, and eight touchdowns during his two seasons in Tampa Bay, making him one of the league’s most productive wideouts. So far this season, he’s on pace for a 59-816-5 line. Even if that dropoff can be blamed on Tampa Bay’s poor quarterback play, that sort of production isn’t worth carrying a $12MM+ cap hit, which makes Jackson a strong candidate to be cut or restructure his deal.
Doug Martin (RB), Buccaneers
Contract situation: Under contract through 2015. Owed base salary of $1.316MM in 2015 ($2.16MM cap hit).
2015 outlook: While Martin is still receiving plenty of carries for Tampa Bay, it certainly seems as if the team would be fine with splitting carries between Bobby Rainey and rookie Charles Sims, when Sims gets healthy. Martin is a former first-round pick, has a 1,450-yard season on his resumé, and is still on an inexpensive contract, so it’s unlikely he’ll be cut before his rookie deal expires. But if he’s not in the Bucs’ long-term plans, a trade would make the most sense — perhaps his name will resurface as a trade candidate in the offseason.
Dashon Goldson (S), Buccaneers
Contract situation: Under contract through 2017. Owed base salary of $7.5MM in 2015 ($4MM guaranteed, $8MM cap hit).
2015 outlook: With Barron out of the picture in Tampa Bay, it may just be a matter of time until the team’s other apparent cornerstone at safety follows him out the door. Since signing a massive five-year deal with the team in March of 2013, Goldson has underwhelmed, receiving a -14.4 grade from Pro Football Focus last season and a -8.3 mark so far this year (subscription required). His ’15 base salary includes $4MM in guaranteed money, so perhaps the club tries to make it work for one more year, but with no prorated bonus money counting against the cap, it also wouldn’t be hard for the Bucs to walk away if they decide he’s not the right fit for Lovie Smith’s defense.
Tony Carter (CB), Broncos
Contract situation: Eligible for unrestricted free agency at season’s end.
2015 outlook: Carter has been a forgotten man in Denver this season, given the team’s depth at cornerback, but he did generate some interest at the deadline and could be a bargain in free agency this offseason. The Broncos will likely do everything they can to lock up cornerback Chris Harris, who has played very well this season, but if the team’s cap limitations prevent a deal with Harris, Carter could remain with the team beyond this season as a less expensive option at nickel back.
Justin Tuck (DE), Raiders
Contract situation: Under contract through 2015. Owed base salary of $3.35MM in 2015 ($5MM cap hit).
2015 outlook: Tuck isn’t racking up huge sack numbers in Oakland, but PFF’s numbers rate him as a top-10 3-4 defensive end so far this season (subscription required). His salary figures for 2015 are about the same as this year’s, so he’d probably represent a decent value, but there are other factors at play here. Most notably, if the Raiders continue to be the NFL’s worst team, it seems realistic that a new GM and head coach could be in place by the spring. In that case, perhaps a new regime would prefer to get out of Tuck’s deal, which wouldn’t have any dead money, opting instead for younger players at the position.
Jermaine Gresham (TE), Bengals
Contract situation: Eligible for unrestricted free agency at season’s end.
2015 outlook: If it wasn’t clear before that Gresham isn’t part of the Bengals’ future plans, the fact that he was identified as a trade candidate even while Tyler Eifert remained on the shelf is an indication that his time in Cincinnati is nearly up. I’d expect to see him sign elsewhere when he hits the open market in March.
Kendall Langford (DT), Rams
Contract situation: Under contract through 2015. Owed base salary of $6MM in 2015 ($7MM cap hit).
2015 outlook: While Langford hasn’t played poorly for the Rams, he’s becoming increasingly expendable given the presence of first-round picks Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers. With only $1MM in dead money on Langford’s contract for 2015, I’d expect to see St. Louis cut him this winter and use that $6MM on multiple players, possibly including a cheaper defensive tackle option to complement Donald and Brockers.
Nate Washington (WR), Titans
Contract situation: Eligible for unrestricted free agency at season’s end.
2015 outlook: Washington has played for the Titans since 2009, so he may want to continue his career with the team when his contract expires at season’s end. But if there’s mutual interest in a new deal, it would probably have to be at a rate less than his current $4.8MM salary, given the presence of Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright, and Washington’s declining role in the offense.
Michael Griffin (S), Titans
Contract situation: Under contract through 2016. Owed base salary of $6.3MM in 2015 ($8.1MM cap hit).
2015 outlook: Griffin’s 2015 cap and salary figures are nearly identical to his 2014 totals, but I’m guessing the Titans will be less inclined to commit to him for next season, particularly with less dead money left on his deal. The veteran safety hasn’t looked like an ideal fit in Tennessee’s new defensive scheme and has struggled to make plays. Releasing him for 2015 would generate $4.5MM in cap savings, and could make real sense for the Titans.
Wesley Woodyard (LB), Titans
Contract situation: Under contract through 2017. Owed base salary of $2.75MM in 2015 ($3.5MM cap hit)
2015 outlook: Unlike Griffin and Akeem Ayers, Woodyard was just signed by the Titans this offseason, so if he’s not viewed as a fit in the team’s defense, the new regime only has itself to blame. Still, the fact that Woodyard was mentioned as a possible trade candidate may have had less to do with his fit in Tennessee, and more to do with the fact that he’s a fairly inexpensive and versatile player who could’ve brought back a moderate return in a deal. The 28-year-old’s base salary isn’t guaranteed for 2015, so the team could consider trading or releasing him, but he seems like a reasonable bet to be back with the Titans next season.