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2015 Free Agent Stock Watch Series

By | at February 9, 2015 8:59 am

2015’s NFL free agent period is just a few weeks away, as this year’s free-agents-to-be will be eligible to speak to other teams starting on March 7, and can sign contracts with rival suitors as of March 10 at 3:00pm central time.

Over the next few weeks, Pro Football Rumors will be heavily focused on free agency, and that means taking a closer look at several of the higher-profile players who could hit the open market next month. Our Free Agent Stock Watch pieces will explore what a player brings to a club, what sort of earnings he can expect on his next contract, teams that could be in the market for the player, and where the player might want to end up, along with any other relevant factors.

The list of players we’ve profiled so far is below, and will grow exponentially over the next several weeks. This post, which can be found on the right sidebar under “PFR Features,” will be updated each time we publish a new Free Agent Stock Watch piece, so be sure to check back to read up on the latest additions. The players below are listed in alphabetical order.

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Offseason Outlook: Miami Dolphins

By | at February 8, 2015 4:08 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Mike Wallace, WR: $12,100,000
  2. Branden Albert, T: $10,725,000
  3. Cameron Wake, DE: $10,450,000
  4. Brent Grimes, CB: $10,000,000
  5. Dannell Ellerbe, LB: $9,850,000
  6. Reshad Jones, S: $7,760,000
  7. Mike Pouncey, C: $7,438,000
  8. Brian Hartline, WR: $7,350,000
  9. Cortland Finnegan, CB: $6,475,000
  10. Randy Starks, DT: $6,000,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

For most of the last decade, the Dolphins have come to embody the word “mediocre” — since winning the AFC East in 2008, Miami hasn’t won more than eight games in a season, nor have they posted more than ten losses in any single campaign. After posting a pedestrian 8-8 record in 2013, owner Stephen Ross made some changes at the top, firing longtime general manager Jeff Ireland, and, after a protracted search process, hired Buccaneers executive Dennis Hickey as the club’s new decision-maker.Joe Philbin

Hickey and the rest of the front office used free agency to make several upgrades, signing tackle Branden Albert to fortify an offensive line that had come under fire, retaining cornerback Brent Grimes and defensive tackle Randy Starks to aid the team’s defense, and adding veterans like Cortland Finnegan, Knowshon Moreno, and Earl Mitchell to round out the roster. In the draft, the Dolphins picked tackle Ja’Wuan James and receiver Jarvis Landry in the first two rounds, selections that would prove astute.

But despite the new additions, Miami once again finished with a .500 record, good for third place in the division. There were positive developments to be sure, as third-year quarterback Ryan Tannehill took to new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor’s scheme and posted his best season to date, completing 66.4% of his passes for 4,045 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. The rest of the offense, buoyed by contributions from Landry, running back Lamar Miller, and a revamped offensive line, finished 7th in DVOA. The defense was a different story, however, as the Fins finished 21st in yards allowed, 20th in points allowed, and 18th in DVOA. The unit struggled in both aspects of defense, placing 20th against the pass and 18th against the run per DVOA.

Front Office Changes:

Rumors abounded that head coach Joe Philbin’s job was in jeopardy, as he’d posted just a 23-25 record during his three seasons at the helm. Many speculated that Ross, rebuffed by Jim Harbaugh three years before, would once again try to lure the 49ers coach to South Beach. However, Ross announced after Miami’s penultimate game that Philbin would indeed be retained for a fourth season.

Hickey, by all accounts, had an excellent rookie season as GM, hitting on both his free agency additions and his draft picks. Still, the Dolphins opted to make a front office change for the second consecutive year, hiring former Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum as executive vice president of football operations, a role which guarantees him control over the club’s personnel. Tannenbaum and Philbin will report directly to Ross, while Hickey, who was retained as something of a “GM-in-name-only,” will report to Tannenbaum. Tannenbaum had mixed results in New York, and even if the move proves fruitful, it’s odd that he was able to wrest control from Hickey after the latter’s successful debut.

Key Free Agents:

Regardless of the front office hierarchy, Tannenbaum and Hickey will need to work collaboratively to make decisions on several critical key free agents. Topping that list is defensive tackle Jared Odrick, who heads into his sixth season after a very successful 2014. He started all 16 games along the interior, finishing as the 19th-best DT among 81 qualifiers per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He posted just one sack, but in Kevin Coyle’s 4-3 scheme, Odrick’s role isn’t to get after the quarterback. The 27-year-old will be part of a strong free agent defensive tackle class, and might price himself out of Miami’s range.

The Dolphins have interest in re-signing tight end Charles Clay, and were reportedly to planning to offer the 25-year-old a contract proposal in the coming weeks. Coming off a season in which he caught 58 passes for 605 yards and three touchdowns, Clay could probably ask for $4MM/year on the open market. The franchise tag looms as an option for the Fins, but as PFR’s Luke Adams noted last month, Miami’s tight cap space situation means it probably can’t commit to such a high salary for one year.

Miami also has decisions to make along the offensive line, where Samson Satele and Daryn Colledge are impending FAs. Satele filled in for the injured Mike Pouncey after the latter was injured during training camp, and stayed at center even when Pouncey returned. Colledge, signed late in the summer, was the starting left guard, playing 763 snaps. Both Satele and Colledge were below-average players in 2014, and the Dolphins probably woudn’t want either to return as a starter, but perhaps one could be re-signed to act as depth.

Finally, three veterans present interesting free agent cases for the Dolphins. Backup quarterback Matt Moore is viewed as one of the better No. 2 options in the league, and could be aiming to find a starting role in free agency, especially given the dearth of QB options available on the market and in the draft. As such, James Walker of ESPN.com wrote last month that there’s a good chance Moore finds work elsewhere, while Miami searches for a more affordable backup.

Two other veterans — running back Knowshon Moreno and safety Louis Delmas — are each coming off injuries, as Moreno tore his ACL in October and Delmas did the same in December. Both were turned in competent performances in 2014, but given that each suffered such a serious injury, I wouldn’t expect to see either return.

Possible Cap Casualties:

The Dolphins are currently projected to enter the offseason with just $1.69MM in available cap space, which could make roster maneuvering difficult. As such, the club could opt to make several cuts to free up financial room. Undoubtedly, receiver Mike Wallace is the name to watch when it comes to a potential release. After signing a five-year, $60MM deal prior to the 2013 season, Wallace has failed to live up to expectations, failing to top 75 receptions or 1,000 yards in either of his two seasons in Miami (though he did catch 10 touchdowns in 2014). His cap figure tops $12MM in each of the next three seasons, and Miami could create $2.5MM of space by releasing him now, or $6.9MM by designating him as a post-June 1 cut.

Ousting Wallace as a pre-June 1 release would still leave $9.6MM of dead money on Miami’s books in 2015, so the front office will have to decide if that extra $2.5MM in savings is worth the move. Given Wallace’s production and the team’s fiscal issues, it just might be. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported today that Hickey and Wallace recently met, and suggested that the club won’t make a decision on Wallace without first considering all its options, which suggests that a pay cut could be in the cards.

Two more pass-catchers — Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson — could also be shown the door, as the Dolphins would save a combined $6.41MM by cutting both. Neither was overly effective last year, as Hartline caught only 39 passes while Gibson saw just 29 receptions. The Wallace situation will likely play a role in the duo’s future in Miami. If Wallace is retained, especially at a lower salary, both could be cut, as Miami could fully turn the No. 2 role over to Landry. If Wallace is released, however, one or both of Hartline/Gibson could stick around to provide a veteran presence in the WR corps.

Linebacker Dannell Ellerbe is almost surely going to be released — he’s set to count $9.85MM against the cap next year, and the Fins would save $5.65MM by cutting him. He missed almost all of last season with a hip injury, but posted a -13.5 PFF grade in 2013, his first year in South Beach. Miami could turn to either Jelani Jenkins, or fellow FAs Jason Trusnik of Kelvin Sheppard, to take Ellerbe’s role.

Another defender, the veteran cornerback Finnegan, is also on the chopping block after rating as the No. 74 CB in the league among 108 qualifiers last season per PFF. At 31, he’s due a $5.45MM base salary in 2015, and would leave just $1MM in dead money if cut. Finnegan is just a season removed from being ranked as the second-worst corner in the NFL per PFF, so it’s fair to say he probably won’t be retained.

Positions Of Need:

The problem with potentially releasing so many veterans is that the Dolphins would subsequently need to find replacements, which could be tough given the team’s cap problems. Miami’s secondary is an area of concern, as the the club needs to find a safety to pair with Reshad Jones, and could look to add a No. 2 corner if Finnegan is cut. The likes of Byron Maxwell and Devin McCourty will be out of the Dolphins’ price range, but lower-tier alternatives like Chris Culliver, Perrish Cox, Chris Conte, or Dwight Lowery could be viable.

Guard is another position that could use a talent infusion. With Pouncey likely to take over at center, the Dolphins won’t want to count on Colledge as a starter next year. Second-year lineman Billy Turner or veteran Shelley Smith might be able to take one of the guard spots, but a free agent addition at the position wouldn’t be a bad idea. 49er Mike Iupati will be too expensive, but James Carpenter, a former first-round pick, could make some sense. Veteran lineman Todd Herremans could be cut by the Eagles, and he could be an option for the Dolphins given his familiarity with Lazor and his scheme.

It’s conceivable that Miami could rid itself of Wallace, Hartline, and Gibson, leaving a glaring need at receiver. The Dolphins won’t be able to make a play for Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant, and Torrey Smith isn’t a schematic fit — he’s essentially a Wallace-clone, and Tannehill struggles throwing the deep ball. Jeremy Maclin (who, like Herremans, is familiar with Lazor) would be a match, but he also might cost too much. Miami might have to settle for someone like Kenny Britt or Hakeem Nicks, veterans who have shown flashes of talent but have struggled in recent years.

The club could look to add reserve talent at both quarterback and running back, where Moore and Moreno will likely not be retained. Bringing in a young-ish option like Christian Ponder or Blaine Gabbert could make some sense, or the team could add a veteran such as Tarvaris Jackson to solidify the No. 2 QB role. At running back, Miller proved he could thrive as the starter, but it’s rare that a single player is entrusted with the RB role. Signing a veteran like Bilal Powell or Antone Smith, or giving a chance to a rehabbing Stevan Ridley, could be intriguing for Miami.

More than likely, Miami will have to use the draft to fill its holes, as free agency might prove to costly. Hickey hit on several of his picks last season, and while regression to the mean suggests he probably won’t be as successful in 2015, his performance warrants the opportunity to head another draft. Teaming with Tannenbaum, Hickey will need to find several more successful rookies who can contribute for the next several years at low costs.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions:

The Dolphins will have to decide whether to exercise their fifth-year option on Tannehill, and given his success last season, it’s probably a foregone conclusion that they will. The next step would be entering negotiations on a long-term extension. Tannehill improved greatly in 2014, and another exemplary year in 2015 would only increase his asking price, so it could be smart for Miami to lock him up now. A deal in the Andy Dalton/Colin Kaepernick mold, with a large total commitment but modest guarantees, would make sense for both sides, as would an AAV in the neighborhood of $13-14MM.

Pouncey’s deal is up after 2015, making him a candidate for extension, as well. His brother, center Maurkice Pouncey of the Steelers, recently signed a five-year, $44MM extension to remain in Pittsburgh. Maurkice is considered the better player, so Mike shouldn’t warrant as high a salary, but a new deal that pays him $6MM per year would be reasonable. Miller is also entering his walk year, but given the fungibility of running backs, it might make sense to simply let him play the year out rather than try to extend him.

Overall Outlook:

2015 is unquestionably an important year for the Dolphins. Another 8-8 (or worse) season would probably be the last straw for Philbin. His firing could mean the removal of Lazor, which would force Tannehill to master yet another offensive scheme. Cap space remains a problem in Miami, so a series of cuts probably need to be made in order to free up financial room. The team had success in the free agent market last season, and another solid round of signings, combined with a second consecutive high-quality draft, could set the Dolphins up for years to come. A Tannehill extension is the primary issue on the table, but if the club misses the playoffs yet again in 2015, any offseason wins will be quickly forgotten.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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PFR Originals: 2/1/15 – 2/8/15

By | at February 8, 2015 2:15 pm

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

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2015 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates: Recap

By | at February 7, 2015 9:58 pm

As our list of important offseason dates shows, teams can assign their franchise or transition tag to a player beginning on February 16, and will have until March 2 to make use of one of those tags.

Franchise and transition tags are tools that allow teams to keep free-agents-to-be off the open market. Our glossary entry on the subject goes into greater detail, but essentially, a player receiving either tag can’t sign freely with a rival suitor — the exclusive franchise tag prohibits the player from even negotiating with another team, while the non-exclusive franchise and transition tags ensure that the player must sign an offer sheet, which his previous club would have the opportunity to match.

Franchising a player means tendering him a one-year contract offer — he can accept and sign that offer, or attempt to work out a longer-term arrangement with his club. The salary for the one-year offer is determined using a formula that looks at the highest-paid players at each position, and is often exorbitant. Because it can be tricky to accommodate a franchise or transition salary within the cap restraints, most teams won’t make use of the tags this offseason. Last year, for instance, only six clubs took advantage of the opportunity, with four teams using the franchise tag while two others used the transition tag.

Over the last couple weeks, we’ve been taking a closer look at players who may qualify for a tag in 2015. Here are the results of that series:

Viable candidates:

Other possible candidates:

Extreme long shots:

Candidates by division:

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2015 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates: NFC West

By | at February 7, 2015 6:33 pm

The deadline for assigning a franchise or transition tag on a 2015 free-agent-to-be is less than a month away, and we’re in the process of taking a look at players who are candidates to be tagged this year. Last week, we examined all four AFC divisions, covering the East, North, South, and West. This week, we’ve shifted our focus to the NFC — we kicked things off on Tuesday with the East, tackled the North on Wednesday, and looked at the South on Friday. Today, we’ll turn to the West, breaking down the possible franchise and transition tag candidates for the Cardinals, Niners, Seahawks, and Rams:

Arizona Cardinals:

  • Candidates: Antonio Cromartie
  • Odds of being used: Unlikely
  • A handful of Cardinals regulars on the defensive side of the ball are eligible for free agency next month, including defensive tackle Dan Williams, and linebackers Sam Acho and Larry Foote. While I don’t expect all of them to bolt, it’ll be interesting to see if any follow former defensive coordinator Todd Bowles to New York, where he’ll coach the Jets. Cromartie is probably the most noteworthy free-agent-to-be on the roster, but even though he had a better year in 2014 than he did in 2013, it’s hard to imagine the cornerback’s $4MM salary jumping up to an eight-digit figure via the franchise tag.

San Francisco 49ers:

  • Candidates: Mike Iupati
  • Odds of being used: Unlikely
  • The 49ers have multiple players who may have been strong candidates to be tagged in past seasons, such as wide receiver Michael Crabtree and running back Frank Gore. Cornerbacks like Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox were also solid for San Francisco in 2014. But Iupati is the only player I can imagine the Niners tagging, and even then it’s an extreme long shot. Franchise tags for offensive lineman aren’t split up by position, so the club would have to pay Iupati, a guard, like a left tackle to tag him, which isn’t realistic — especially when the team has done such a good job building depth on its line.

Seattle Seahawks:

  • Candidates: Byron Maxwell
  • Odds of being used: Unlikely
  • A recent report suggested that Maxwell may be seeking $12-13MM per year on his next deal, and if the Seahawks felt like he could realistically land that sort of contract, the team would have to strongly consider using a tag. However, that figure seems awfully high for a cornerback who is effective, but not in the same class as teammate Richard Sherman. In any case, Seattle doesn’t have a ton of cap flexibility, and still needs to get something done with Russell Wilson as he heads into a contract year. Retaining Maxwell may be a luxury that the team can’t afford, especially at a franchise salary.

St. Louis Rams:

  • Candidates: None
  • Odds of being used: Extremely unlikely
  • Wide receiver Kenny Britt, right tackle Joe Barksdale, and quarterbacks Shaun Hill and Austin Davis are among the notable players who are nearing free agency. None are worth more than fleeting consideration for a franchise or transition tag though.
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2015 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates: NFC South

By | at February 6, 2015 5:01 pm

The deadline for assigning a franchise or transition tag on a 2015 free-agent-to-be is less than a month away, and we’re in the process of taking a look at players who are candidates to be tagged this year. Last week, we examined all four AFC divisions, covering the East, North, South, and West. This week, we’ve shifted our focus to the NFC — we kicked things off on Tuesday with the East and tackled the North on Wednesday. Today, we’ll turn to the South. While there are fewer candidates to be tagged in this division than perhaps any other division in the league, here’s a breakdown of the possible franchise and transition tag candidates for the Falcons, Panthers, Saints, and Buccaneers:

Atlanta Falcons:

  • Candidates: Matt Bryant
  • Odds of being used: Possible
  • There are many Falcons regulars eligible for free agency, but the list isn’t particularly inspiring. Among a group that includes Dwight Lowery, Kroy Biermann, Osi Umenyiora, Corey Peters, Josh Wilson, Robert McClain, Antone Smith, and Jacquizz Rodgers, there are no real candidates for the franchise tag, but Bryant could qualify. He currently falls just outside of the league’s top 10 highest-paid kickers, but he has been a model of consistency for Atlanta in recent years. In his past two seasons with the team, he has missed six total field goals, and five of those came from 50+ yards. The Falcons will want him back, so tagging him could be an option if the two sides don’t work anything out before March 3.

Carolina Panthers:

  • Candidates: None
  • Odds of being used: Extremely unlikely
  • When examining other divisions and other teams, I’ve generally listed players as candidates to be tagged if their teams used a tag on them a year ago. But it’s hard to argue the case for Greg Hardy to get the franchise tag again. A domestic violence charge relegated Hardy to the exempt list all season, and the defensive end may be facing an additional suspension for the 2015 season. There’s no question he’s talented, and if he makes it to the open market, Hardy should draw interest from teams willing to look past his off-field troubles. But Carolina certainly shouldn’t need to commit to another eight-digit salary to bring him back. The club’s only other conceivable candidate is Byron Bell, but that’s only because he played an important position in 2014. Bell’s trial run at left tackle wasn’t a real success story — Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranked him 83rd out of 84 qualified tackles.

New Orleans Saints:

  • Candidates: Shayne Graham
  • Odds of being used: Unlikely
  • Like the Falcons, the Saints’ top candidate for a tag is their kicker. In New Orleans’ case, however, it’s more of a long shot. Graham performed passably for the team in 2014, but it certainly wasn’t the sort of season that warrants paying the 37-year-old like one of the league’s best kickers. Mark Ingram is another intriguing name among the Saints’ list of free-agents-to-be, but given the cost of the franchise tag for running backs compared to what most backs are actually being paid these days, it wouldn’t make much sense to tag him.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

  • Candidates: None
  • Odds of being used: Extremely unlikely
  • Safety Major Wright and linebacker Mason Foster are perhaps the Buccaneers’ most notable prospective free agents, and neither player was a core player — both guys only played about half the team’s defensive snaps. There’s no viable franchise tag candidate in Tampa Bay.
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Free Agent Stock Watch: Bryan Bulaga

By | at February 5, 2015 9:28 pm

After missing all of 2013 due to an ACL tear, Bryan Bulaga turned in a fine performance in 2014, the final year of his rookie contract. The former first-round pick out of the University of Iowa, a veritable factory of quality offensive linemen, graded out as the 16th best tackle, and 4th best right tackle, in the league per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required). He received especially high marks for his pass blocking performance in support of league MVP Aaron Rodgers, yielding just four sacks–two of which came in one game–and two other quarterback hits over the course of the season.

Bryan Bulaga (Vertical)

In addition to his strong 2014 campaign, which culminated in a heartbreaking defeat to Seattle in the NFC Championship Game, Bulaga brings a few other noteworthy accomplishments to the table. He was named to the league’s all-rookie team in 2010, and he was the youngest player to ever start in a Super Bowl when the Packers bested the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV. PFF also ranked him as the 7th best tackle in football in 2011, just his second year in the league (subscription required).

However, he does come with an injury history. Even before the ACL tear that he suffered in August 2013, Bulaga suffered a hip injury nine games into the 2012 season that kept him sidelined for the rest of the year. As a result, he spent nearly two years on injured reserve, meaning that he needed a year like 2014 to not only prove that he was a top-flight tackle, but that he could stay healthy for a full season.

Despite missing Green Bay’s Week 2 matchup against the Jets this year, Bulaga largely managed to stay injury-free, which, combined with his strong play, puts him in excellent position for a big payday. Although there are a few other solid tackles eligible for free agency this year, most notably Doug Free, Michael Roos, and King Dunlap, Bulaga has one significant advantage over all of them: his age. At 26, Bulaga should still have a few prime years remaining, while those other free agent tackles will be at least 30 at some point in 2015.

Last year, Austin Howard scored the top deal among free agent right tackles, landing a five-year, $30MM contract with the Raiders, including $15MM in guaranteed money. Even Michael Oher, who was just released today, managed to snag a four-year, $20MM deal with Tennessee last season. Bulaga is more talented than both, and he will likely be paid accordingly. Although he has never played left tackle in his pro career–the Packers had planned to utilize him in that role before his ACL tear in 2013–he did play on the blind side while with Iowa, and he could at least represent an emergency solution at left tackle should the need arise. And, as the best overall tackle in free agency, he may end up getting paid like a second-tier left tackle, perhaps netting a deal in the five-year, $35MM range, which is what Jared Veldheer received from Arizona last year.

Green Bay would surely love to have Bulaga back. In late December, offensive line coach James Campen said of his right tackle, “He’s heavier than he’s ever been; he’s stronger…Remember, he was a young guy coming out of college, so he’s grown into his body and he has a clear understanding of the scheme, so he’s playing with total confidence. He knows exactly what’s going to happen, where it’s going to happen” (link via Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com). There is no reason to think that Bulaga himself would not like to continue his career where it began, though he was understandably in no state to discuss his future after Green Bay fell to the Seahawks several weeks ago.

But, if he does not re-sign with the Packers before free agency opens on March 10, he will likely be one of the first players to come off the board, and his presence should be a great comfort to whatever quarterback lines up behind him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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Offseason Outlook: New York Jets

By | at February 4, 2015 6:02 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. D’Brickashaw Ferguson, T: $11,698,670
  2. Percy Harvin, WR: $10,500,000
  3. Nick Mangold, C: $10,407,100
  4. Muhammad Wilkerson, DL: $6,969,000
  5. Eric Decker, WR: $6,500,000
  6. Chris Johnson, RB: $5,250,000
  7. Breno Giacomini, T: $5,125,000
  8. Dee Milliner, CB: $3,453,028
  9. Quinton Coples, OLB: $2,800,890
  10. Chris Ivory, RB: $2,750,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 6 overall pick
  • Owe conditional draft pick to the Seahawks for Percy Harvin. The pick is a fourth-rounder for now, but could become a sixth-rounder if Harvin doesn’t remain on the Jets’ roster.

Other:

Overview

After a 4-12 season and their fourth straight year without a playoff appearance, the Jets decided to overhaul their coaching staff and front office. Now, they’re poised to make some significant changes to their on-field personnel.

Last offseason, cap-conscious GM John Idzik left upwards of $20MM in cap space unused as he plotted for a future that he would not be a part of. The offseason was not without its splashes, of course. The Jets added Broncos star Eric Decker on a multi-year deal, signed Michael Vick to compete with Geno Smith at quarterback, and landed running back Chris Johnson after he fell into their laps late in the offseason. The injection of star power helped them continue to dominate the back pages of New York tabloids, but it did little to help improve their on-field product.

Outside of the Jets’ defensive line, it’s hard to isolate one unit that really succeeded in 2014, but the secondary was especially brutal. Dimitri Patterson was brought aboard in the offseason to serve as one of the team’s starting cornerbacks, but he allegedly went AWOL during training camp and was ultimately released. Of course, having Patterson in the fold probably wouldn’t have moved the needle much anyway. On the other hand, someone like Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie could have been a difference maker, but he signed with the other tenants of MetLife Stadium after the Jets insulted him with a lowball offer.

On offense, Smith followed up a lukewarm rookie season with a sophomore campaign that was even worse. Smith admittedly didn’t have a great stable of wide receivers beyond Decker to start the year, but things didn’t get much better for him after Percy Harvin came to town. Moving on from Smith would be a rather easy decision if it weren’t for the absolute dearth of alternatives available this offseason.

Coaching/Front Office Changes

Rex Ryan went 26-38 over the last four seasons, yet you’d be hard-pressed to find a coach more popular with the local media. New York scribes readily came to Ryan’s defense throughout the Jets’ putrid 4-12 campaign. That could be because Ryan wasn’t given much to work with or because Ryan was a guaranteed gold mine every time he approached a hot microphone — or maybe a bit from both columns. All of the positive ink couldn’t save Ryan’s job at the end of the day, however, and the head coach was shown the door at the end of the season along with Idzik.Todd Bowles

Two years ago, Idzik convinced Jets owner Woody Johnson that he was the man for the job based on his salary cap expertise. When Idzik was ousted, the Jets replaced him with former Texans college scouting director Mike Maccagnan. Maccagnan, who was championed by team consultant Charley Casserly, isn’t much of a numbers guy but has a wealth of football knowledge and a keen eye for player evaluation.

While the Jets went in a different direction at GM, they went with another defensive-minded coach to replace Ryan when they hired former Cardinals defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. The 51-year-old is now the Jets’ sixth straight head coach with a defensive background as Ryan, Eric Mangini, Herm Edwards, Al Groh, and Bill Parcells were all defense-first coaches. That may seem like an exceptionally long time to emphasize defense, but one can hardly blame Gang Green for being wary of going back to an offensive-minded HC after two dreadful years with Rich Kotite. Bowles will be assisted by Kacy Rodgers on defense while ex-Bills coach Chan Gailey will be responsible for the offensive playcalling.

With Bowles on the sidelines, Maccagnan can expect to get a similar directive to the one that Ryan was giving Idzik: build the defense. This time, there’s a good chance the GM will actually listen.

Positions Of Need

In a perfect world, the Jets would use their considerable cap room or their No. 6 overall pick to find a new starting quarterback. In the real world, well, there’s not much out there. The Jets stank on ice in 2014, but they probably didn’t lose enough to get within range of Oregon product Marcus Mariota or FSU star Jameis Winston. There are other noteworthy names at the position, including UCLA’s Brett Hundley and Baylor’s Bryce Petty, but none would be worth taking with their first round choice. In fact, many aren’t sold on Mariota or Winston as franchise quarterbacks and the outlook is even worse for the rest of the crop. In free agency, the Jets will find a group headlined by Brian Hoyer and old friend Mark Sanchez. Sanchez looked like a top-10 QB when things were clicking in Philadelphia and looked more like his 2012 version when things hit the skids. Even if Sanchez looked like the second coming of Joe Montana for the entire season, it would be hard to see the Jets making a play for him.

The trade market, meanwhile, could hold a couple of interesting options for the Jets. John Fox sounds like he’d be on board with having Jay Cutler as his quarterback in Chicago, but that’s far from certain at that point. Last season was a disaster for the Bears on both sides of the ball, but Cutler has proven himself to be one of the better signal callers in football when he has the right pieces around him. Meanwhile, in Washington, Robert Griffin III‘s future is as uncertain as ever. It wouldn’t be hard to see RGIII in a pair of green-and-white striped socks, but he would probably have to compete for the starting job against Smith in camp.

Whether the Jets make a major addition under center remains to be seen, but it’s a mortal lock that they will add a notable cornerback this offseason. Former Jet Antonio Cromartie has a fan in Bowles and he has made no secret about his desire to return to New York. “My door is always open to returning,” Cromartie said late last month. “Everybody knows I didn’t want to leave. I’m going to keep my door open and see what happens.” Of course, the big fish this offseason will be Darrelle Revis if the Patriots decline his $20MM team option and he tests the open market. That reunion once seemed unthinkable, but the Jets (and Rex Ryan‘s Bills) reportedly have their sights set on him. Beyond those familiar faces, the Jets could look into the likes of Byron Maxwell, Brandon Flowers, Chris Culliver, and Kareem Jackson. Jackson, of course, shares a Houston connection with Maccagnan. Getting Dee Milliner back in the lineup will help things, but the Jets will have to go out-of-house to really lock down the cornerback spots.

Elsewhere in the secondary, the Jets will look to add a new free safety with impending free agent Dawan Landry likely heading elsewhere. Landry had his moments in 2014, but he was a poor complement for the hard-hitting Calvin Pryor. Pryor does his best work hanging out around the line of scrimmage and leveling the kind of hits that were more common in the NFL ten years ago. Landry, meanwhile, isn’t a top-notch coverage option and that meant that Pryor couldn’t really demonstrate his skill set. With a different free safety, the Louisville product could make a significant impact in 2015, provided that he doesn’t rack up too many penalty flags. It should be noted that while Landry might not be the best fit for the Jets, he actually graded out as the ninth-best safety in the NFL last season according to PFF.

The Jets seemingly solved their issues at wide receiver when they acquired Harvin midseason. The eminently talented athlete would be the ideal No. 2 to Decker, if not for his hefty contract. While Harvin is owed $10.5MM for 2015, his salary is non-guaranteed and he can be dropped without salary cap ramifications. Maccagnan has a different approach than Idzik, but it doesn’t take a cap guru to know that’s a massive cost for the oft-injured and mercurial Harvin. If the Jets do want to dole out a top-10 wide receiver salary, they could get bold and go for the likes of free agent Demaryius Thomas, if he hits the open market. Going a little (or a lot cheaper), Gang Green could explore someone like Michael Crabtree, though he also comes with a history of injuries and abrasive behavior. Better yet, the Jets could use the No. 6 pick on the top receiver in the draft, Alabama’s Amari Cooper.

Key Free Agents

The Jets have a great number of free agents this offseason but only a few could be viewed as pivotal. David Harris stands as one of the best inside linebackers on the open market this offseason and he could be open to taking a little bit less to play for a winner. Meanwhile, it’s not hard to see Rex Ryan luring him to Buffalo. Defensive tackle Damon Harrison‘s contract is also up, but he’s a restricted free agent. The 26-year-old, one of the Jets’ few bright spots in 2014, is likely to receive the max tender.

Running back Bilal Powell has looked good at times, but he’s not irreplaceable and there’s no guarantee that the new regime will want him back. Safety Jaiquawn Jarrett (restricted) could also be retained after a solid season, including a heroic effort in the Jets’ Week 10 win over the Steelers.

Possible Cap Casualties

As mentioned earlier, Harvin could be shown the door rather than kept f0r his $10.5MM salary. Cutting Harvin wouldn’t necessarily mean parting ways with him, of course, as the Jets could look to work out a more team-friendly deal. Never say never, but Harvin could find it difficult to land a multi-year deal at an AAV that would put him in the top 15 of wide receivers, especially when considering that the quality of the market at the position. The Jets could release him and instead look to sign him to a one-year pillow deal for less money, but then again, there will be other suitors looking to do the same. It should also be noted that keeping Harvin means that the Jets would be sending a fourth-round choice to Seattle rather than a sixth-round pick.

Many expected that the Jets would put Chris Johnson‘s soft hands to good use as a security blanket for Smith in 2014. Aside from a few games, however, we didn’t see CJ2K catch many balls out of the backfield. When you factor in Johnson’s January arrest, his declining speed, the new regime in New York, and the roughly $3.5MM they’d save by bouncing him, it’s very possible that Johnson could be let go this offseason.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

One of the few silver linings to the Jets’ 2014 season was the play of Muhammad Wilkerson. The Jets have the Temple product under contract through 2015 after exercising his fifth-year option, but they don’t want to let him reach the open market after the season. In 2012, the 25-year-old graded out as the second-best 3-4 defensive end in 2012 behind superstar J.J. Watt, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). In 2013, he recorded 64 tackles and 10.5 sacks and, per PFF, he played more defensive snaps (1,067) than any other 3-4 DE. This past year, Wilkerson recorded six sacks and five pass deflections in a 13-game season as he disrupted opposing offenses in both facets of the game. The Jets want to get to the table with Wilkerson and his agent, but they’ll have to address their main areas of need first.

Exercising Wilkerson’s fifth-year option cost the Jets ~$6.97MM and doing the same for linebacker Quinton Coples would likely cost them more. Would that be worthwhile for the Jets after watching him struggle at times with the transition from defensive end to linebacker? Coples had a career best 6.5 sacks in 2014, but they’ll probably take their chances and let him play out his final season. The Jets have until May 3rd to make the call on Coples.

Overall Outlook

The Jets cleaned house at the end of the 2014 season with a clear desire to wipe the slate clean. With a significant number of players heading towards free agency, the Jets have a chance to really shake things up. They can be expected to spend big on a cornerback, but they won’t find themselves in playoff contention without a significant upgrade at quarterback. The Jets could shoot for the moon by trading for Cutler or one of the top two quarterbacks in this year’s draft, but they could also wait until next offseason and treat 2015 as a transitional year. Jets fans are restless, but the bar has also been set low, so Maccagnan & Co. won’t have to go all out unless directed otherwise by ownership.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2015 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates: NFC North

By | at February 4, 2015 8:51 am

The deadline for assigning a franchise or transition tag on a 2015 free-agent-to-be is less than a month away, and we’re in the process of taking a look at players who are candidates to be tagged this year. Last week, we examined all four AFC divisions, covering the East, North, South, and West. This week, we’re shifting our focus to the NFC — we kicked things off on Tuesday with the East and we’ll tackle the North today. Here’s a breakdown of the franchise and transition tag candidates for the Bears, Lions, Packers, and Vikings:

Chicago Bears:

  • Candidates: Stephen Paea
  • Odds of being used: Unlikely
  • The Bears have a ton of pending free agents, but most of them are either non-core players, or longtime contributors who are no longer realistic candidates to be tagged, such as Charles Tillman and Lance Briggs. I don’t expect Chicago to use either of its tags, but if there’s one option out there, it’s probably Paea, whose impressive 2014 campaign may have been overlooked by many due to the defense’s poor overall performance. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) graded Paea as the league’s 11th-best defensive tackle, marking him down for 47 overall quarterback pressures, a lofty total for an interior lineman — among DTs, only Ndamukong Suh (57) and Kyle Williams (49) had more. It probably won’t take a franchise tag to retain Paea, but he should be a priority for the Bears if they have a spot for him in Vic Fangio‘s new defensive scheme.

Detroit Lions:

  • Candidates: Ndamukong Suh, Matt Prater
  • Odds of being used: Possible
  • You could make a case for Suh as the league’s top free-agent-to-be this offseason, which would normally mean the franchise tag makes a ton of sense. In Suh’s case though, his 2014 salary was so high that the cost of a franchise tag would be astronomical — nearly $27MM. As such, a long-term extension will be the Lions’ preference, but tagging Suh could be a last resort. If the star defender isn’t tagged, Prater may be considered, since he made 87% of his field goals for the club after a shaky debut. Still, considering they picked him up off the scrap heap just a few months ago, the Lions likely won’t have to tag the kicker to bring him back. Nick Fairley and Rashean Mathis are other regulars who may be briefly considered, but neither appears to be a viable option.

Green Bay Packers:

  • Candidates: Randall Cobb, Bryan Bulaga
  • Odds of being used: Possible
  • Cobb and Bulaga are players Green Bay would almost certainly like to have around for the 2015 season, and the wideout is the stronger candidate for a franchise tag than the offensive lineman. Although Bulaga has developed into a reliable right tackle for the Packers, the position just isn’t one that gets big money — as Over the Cap’s data shows, the highest-paid right tackle in the NFL (Gosder Cherilus) averages just $7MM per year, and a franchise salary would be significantly higher than that. Cobb, on the other hand, is coming off a season in which he recorded 91 receptions, 1,287 receiving yards, and 12 TDs. Those are No. 1 WR numbers, and Cobb is just 24 years old, so the Packers may be willing to pay him like one of the league’s best wideouts for a year while they try to work out a longer-term deal that’s worth a little less annually. Cornerback Tramon Williams is another solid contributor who might warrant fleeting consideration for a tag.

Minnesota Vikings:

  • Candidates: None
  • Odds of being used: Very unlikely
  • Defensive regulars Jasper Brinkley and Tom Johnson are among the club’s contributors eligible for free agency this offseason, but Minnesota doesn’t have a key free agent worth an eight-digit salary for 2015.
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2015 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates: NFC East

By | at February 3, 2015 8:55 am

The deadline for assigning a franchise or transition tag on a 2015 free-agent-to-be is less than a month away, and we’re in the process of taking a look at players who are candidates to be tagged this year. Last week, we examined all four AFC divisions, covering the East, North, South, and West. This week, we’re shifting our focus to the NFC, starting with the East. Here’s a breakdown of the franchise and transition tag candidates for Dallas, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington:

Dallas Cowboys:

  • Candidates: Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray
  • Odds of being used: Likely
  • Rolando McClain, another Cowboys free-agent-to-be, might be a viable candidate for a tag at another position, but as an inside linebacker, he’d be subject to the pricier franchise salary assigned to an outside linebacker, making it too expensive to really consider. That leaves Bryant and Murray as possible candidates, and it seems probable that one of the two will receive a tag. Bryant, who will be Dallas’ No. 1 priority in free agency, is the likelier option, but if he and the Cowboys work out a long-term extension within the next few weeks, it would make sense to consider franchising Murray.

New York Giants:

  • Candidates: Jason Pierre-Paul
  • Odds of being used: Possible
  • Pierre-Paul came on strong in the season’s second half, increasing his overall sack total to 12.5. JPP was having a good year even without the sacks, playing particularly well against the run, but that sack figure is what improved his earning potential as he neared free agency. A former first-round pick, Pierre-Paul only turns 26 this month, and has a chance to be the best pass rusher to reach the open market, depending on what happens with Ndamukong Suh and Justin Houston. That’s a valuable asset to keep around, so if the Giants can’t work out a long-term deal with him, franchising him could be the team’s best course of action.

Philadelphia Eagles:

  • Candidates: Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Graham
  • Odds of being used: Possible
  • Maclin perhaps isn’t in the same tier as top free-agent-to-be wideouts Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas, but he certainly should head up the second tier, along with Randall Cobb. A year ago, Maclin turned down a five-year offer from the Eagles, choosing to bet on himself with a one-year contract that could significantly increase the value of a multiyear deal this offseason. That decision paid off, as the 26-year-old posted career highs in receptions (85), receiving yards (1,318), and touchdowns (10), and now it might be the Eagles that prefer to just stick to one year. If it comes down to having to offer Maclin a five-year, $50MM+ deal or locking him up at the franchise salary for one year, the club may favor the latter. As for Graham, he’s probably not a truly realistic candidate for a tag, since he still hasn’t become more than a part-time player in Philadelphia, but when he sees the field, he has played very well — Pro Football Focus (subscription required) had Graham down for 53 total quarterback pressures this year in just 524 defensive snaps, ranking him as the league’s third-best 3-4 outside linebacker.

Washington:

  • Candidates: Brian Orakpo
  • Odds of being used: Very unlikely
  • As I observed when I discussed the Steelers and Jason Worilds, if a team is willing to tag a player once, and he plays well in the following season, it makes sense to at least consider it again. In Orakpo’s case though, the edge defender was struggling even before a torn pectoral wiped out the second half of his season, recording just 0.5 sacks in his first seven games. 2014 second-round pick Trent Murphy is a younger, cheaper alternative to Orakpo, so more likely than not, Washington will simply let Orakpo walk if he wants a lucrative deal.
0 comments 2015 Franchise Tag Candidates Dallas Cowboys New York Giants PFR Originals Philadelphia Eagles Washington Commanders
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