PFR Originals: 10/19/14 – 10/26/14
The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- We rolled out the Trade Rumors App, which allows you to access content from PFR, MLB Trade Rumors, and Hoops Rumors all on one platform. It’s available for both iOS and Android, and best of all, it’s free!
- Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.
- We learned that the Broncos don’t plan of signing either Demaryius or Julius Thomas to an in-season extension, leading Luke Adams to ask if Denver should work hardest to extend one of the two Thomases or corner Chris Harris. Nearly 68% of voters said Demaryius Thomas should be the highest priority.
- Trade buzz has surrounded multiple Titans, so Zach wondered which of Nate Washington, Michael Griffin, and Wesley Woodyard was most likely to be traded. About half of respondents though Washington was the favorite to get shipped out of Tennessee. Thanks for voting!
Update On Traded 2015 Draft Picks
The trade that sent Percy Harvin from Seattle to the Jets this past week was the latest example of a swap in which the draft pick involved in the deal is tied to a condition which will affect the value of that pick. In the case of the Harvin deal, the pick Seattle acquired reportedly can become a fourth-rounder if the wideout remains on the Jets’ roster beyond this season, but if New York moves on from Harvin in the offseason, the 2015 pick will be a sixth-rounder.
Considering we haven’t even seen Harvin suit up for the Jets yet, we’re nowhere close to knowing whether he’ll remain in the team’s plans for 2015, so that conditional pick remains very much up in the air. However, there are a number of other conditional picks whose outlook is much clearer. Here’s an update on several of the picks that could change hands in 2015:
Conditions met, or likely to be met:
- Dolphins acquired 49ers‘ seventh-round pick for Jonathan Martin: Martin had to make San Francisco’s opening day 53-man roster for this pick to change hands, which he did.
- Giants acquired Broncos‘ seventh-round pick for Brandon McManus. The deal required McManus to remain the Broncos’ kicker even after Matt Prater‘s four-game suspension ended for the Giants to acquire the pick, which he did.
- Ravens acquiring Cowboys‘ sixth-round pick for Rolando McClain: McClain needs to play in 50% of the Cowboys’ defensive snaps for Baltimore to land this pick, and so far, he has played in about 81%, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Assuming he meets the criteria, the Ravens would sent their seventh-round pick to Dallas in exchange for the Cowboys’ sixth-rounder.
- Titans acquiring Cowboys‘ seventh-round pick for Lavar Edwards: Edwards must spend at least 10 games on the Cowboys’ roster for Tennessee to grab this pick, and so far he has been on the team for all but one contest. He’ll need four more games on the 53-man roster for the Titans to get the pick.
Conditions not met, or unlikely to be met:
- Packers won’t acquire Patriots‘ seventh-round pick for Jerel Worthy: Worthy had to make the Pats’ opening day 53-man roster for Green Bay to get this pick, but he was waived during preseason cutdowns.
- Panthers likely won’t acquire Eagles‘ seventh-round pick for Kenjon Barner: Barner must spend at least four games on Philadelphia’s 46-man game day roster for this pick to change hands. Considering Barner hasn’t even been on the team’s roster since the season began, this appears unlikely.
- Jaguars likely won’t acquire pick from 49ers for Blaine Gabbert: The Jags would’ve landed a pick if Gabbert started eight or more games in 2014. Unless Colin Kaepernick goes down with a serious injury in the team’s next game, this won’t happen.
For details on all of 2015’s traded draft picks, be sure to check out our complete list.
PFR Originals: 10/12/14 – 10/19/14
The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- Luke Adams looked at the 2014 performances of 2011 first-round picks, including those who have signed contract extensions (such as Patrick Peterson and Tyron Smith), and those who have not, like Cam Newton and A.J. Green.
- Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.
- Luke wondered which 5-1 team is the strongest contender — the Chargers beat out the Eagles and the Cowboys with nearly 50% of the vote.
- Following the stunning Percy Harvin trade, Rob DiRe asked a simple question: who won the deal? The vote is nearly split in half, as 51% of respondents believe the Jets won the trade.
- Rob also asked what Rex Ryan will be doing next season, with the implication that he isn’t long for New York. Many of you agree, as about 38% of voters think Ryan will be working as television commentator in 2015.
Examining Extensions For 2011 First-Rounders
2011’s first-round picks became eligible for contract extensions for the first time after the 2013 season, but with the new CBA allowing teams to pick up fifth-year options on players’ four-year rookie contracts, there wasn’t much urgency for most teams to get anything long-term worked out with their former first-rounders. Still, a handful of clubs moved quickly to get players locked up, with Patrick Peterson (Cardinals), Tyron Smith (Cowboys), J.J. Watt (Texans), and Robert Quinn (Rams) all inking new deals.
All four of those players are considered among the best at their respective positions, so it makes sense that their teams wouldn’t want negotiations to drag out. In Smith’s case, the Cowboys also got a fairly team-friendly deal, agreeing to an eight-year extension that keeps the standout left tackle under team control for 10 seasons in total, and didn’t feature a ton of guaranteed money up front.
While it’s still too early to say definitively if those extensions were good or bad moves for the four clubs, the early returns haven’t been positive in every instance. Peterson acknowledged to Bob Baum of The Associated Press that he’s not happy with his play so far in the 2014 season. After drawing some constructive criticism from his head coach and GM, the cornerback vowed that he absolutely intends to step up his game going forward.
“It comes with the territory by being the highest-paid cornerback and being recognized as one of the top cornerbacks in the league,” Peterson said of the criticism. “Is that something that I might shy away from? Not at all. Is it something I’m scared of? Am I worried about the concerns or criticisms I’m getting thus far in the season? Not at all, because we have 11 games to go. I have a lot of games to improve.”
With an assist from Pro Football Focus, here’s a breakdown of how each of the four 2011 first-rounders who signed extensions have come out of the gates so far in 2014:
- Peterson: PFF’s data supports the notion that Peterson has struggled so far, as his -4.1 grade puts him in a tie for 77th among 103 qualified cornerbacks. Quarterbacks have recorded a staggering 132.4 rating throwing into Peterson’s coverage, with four touchdowns and no interceptions.
- Quinn: A year after leading the NFC with 19 sacks, Quinn hasn’t gotten to the quarterback once in the Rams’ first five games this season. As a team, the Rams have just one sack so far, an historically low total. Quinn is still putting some pressure on opposing signal-callers, with 12 QB pressures, but he has struggled against the run and with penalties, and ranks well below average among 4-3 defensive ends so far, per PFF.
- Smith: The Week 6 winner of the NFC Offensive Player of the Week award, Smith actually recorded his worst PFF grade of the year against the Seahawks on Sunday, with a -3.5 mark. Still, he’d been his usual dominant self before that, and assuming an ankle issue doesn’t slow him down too much, we can expect him to continue anchoring the Cowboys’ impressive offensive line.
- Watt: Watt recorded one of the most outstanding defensive games since PFF’s inception in Week 4 against the Bills, logging nine quarterback hits, six QB hurries, and an insane +15.0 grade for just 70 snaps. The star defensive lineman appears well on his way to another MVP-caliber season, and if anything, his six-year, $100MM contract looks like a bargain at this point.
Those four players and teams have made the decision to continue their working relationships for the foreseeable future, but many other extension candidates from the first round of the 2011 draft continue to play out their rookie deals, and will be eligible for free agency after their 2015 option year. Here’s a look at a few key names from that group, and how they’ve fared during the season’s first month and a half, per PFF:
- Cam Newton (Panthers): Despite battling some health issues and working with a revamped receiving corps, Newton’s combination of a +11.8 passing grade and a +2.2 rushing grade has him ranked first among quarterbacks so far, making it increasingly unlikely that he’ll come at a discount for the Panthers.
- Von Miller (Broncos): Miller is on pace to match or exceed his 2012 mark of 18.5 sacks, and he certainly hasn’t been a one-dimensional player — he ranks first among 4-3 outside linebackers as both a pass rusher and a run stopper, according to PFF’s data. If he stays healthy and continues to have a huge year, Miller could push for a multiyear pact in the range of Tamba Hali‘s five-year deal ($11.5MM annually).
- A.J. Green (Bengals) / Julio Jones (Falcons): Despite playing just 166 offensive snaps so far, Green ranks 12th among wideouts with a +3.7 grade, and Jones is right behind him at +3.4. Both receivers are considered top-five players at the position, and they’ll likely be keeping a close eye on Dez Bryant, who is scheduled to hit free agency this coming spring.
- Ryan Kerrigan (Redskins): Fellow Washington outside linebacker Brian Orakpo made more headlines this offseason when he was franchised by the team and couldn’t work out a long-term deal, but it’s Kerrigan who’s wreaking havoc in opposing backfields so far this season. According to PFF, no 3-4 outside linebacker has more overall QB pressures than Kerrigan, who has 31 combined sacks, hits, and hurries. With rookie Trent Murphy now in the mix as well, it’s unlikely that Washington will commit long-term to both Orakpo and Kerrigan, and Kerrigan is certainly making the case that he’s the one worth locking up.
- Jimmy Smith (Ravens): Quarterbacks are averaging just 7.5 yards per completion against Smith, and posting a dismal 50.5 rating when throwing into his coverage. Considering how uncertain and shaky the production has been at the Ravens’ other corner and nickel spots, Smith’s performance has been huge. It’ll be interesting to see how contract talks go with Smith, who is steadily establishing himself an invaluable piece of the Baltimore secondary.
- Muhammad Wilkerson (Jets): No other 3-4 defensive end is in the same vicinity as Watt, per PFF’s grades, but Wilkerson is the clear runner-up so far, ranking in the top three as both a pass rusher (+9.0) and run defender (+8.8). An annual salary around $11-12MM seems well within reach for the Jets lineman.
PFR Originals: 10/5/14 – 10/12/14
The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- With Brian Hoyer off to a great start, Luke Adams examined the extension case for the 29-year-old Browns quarterback. In the same vein, Luke asked whether Hoyer, Johnny Manziel, or a third option would be under center for Cleveland in 2015; nearly 60% of respondents selected Hoyer.
- In another entry in our Extension Candidate series, I looked at the possibility of Randall Cobb reaching a long-term deal with the Packers.
- Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.
- Zach also posted two AFC East-related polls last week. First, he wondered whether head coach Rex Ryan or general manager John Idzik should take the blame for the Jets’ futility; about 61% felt the blame rested on Idzik’s shoulders. Second, Zach questioned how Tom Brady‘s career was likely to end — a majority of readers feel Tom Terrific will play out the string with the Patriots.
- Luke passed along updates on players on the PUP or IR-DTR lists, explaining when such players are eligible to begin practicing and return to game action.
- I examined kicker Matt Prater‘s free agent stock before he signed on with the Lions.
Extension Candidate: Randall Cobb
When the Packers agreed to sign Julius Peppers to a three-year, $27MM deal in March, it was fair to wonder if things were changing in Green Bay. For one, Peppers was a 34-year-old career 4-3 defensive end who would be asked to play quite a bit of 3-4 outside linebacker — paying him $9MM a year to do so, especially when he was coming off a subpar 2013 season, seemed questionable. Additionally, the entire concept of free agency is anathema to Green Bay general manager Ted Thompson. Peppers was just the seventh veteran free agent Thompson has added since joining the Packers in 2006, per Bill Barnwell of Grantland.
Even more so than the teams like the Steelers or the Giants, who occasionally dip into the free agent pool to acquire a specific need at a reasonable cost, the Packers simply have no interest in bringing in veteran outsiders. Over the Cap’s data shows that among Green Bay’s top-20 2014 cap charges, just one belongs to a player (Peppers) who has seen any regular-season action with another team. However, those same numbers show that the Packers are more than willing to pay for performance by its own players — Aaron Rodgers, Sam Shields, Clay Matthews, and Josh Sitton are among the Packers who have been signed to a extensions in recent years.
Green Bay was seemingly more reticent to offer fresh contracts to skill position players (excluding Rodgers) until this summer, when it agreed to a four-year, $39MM deal with receiver Jordy Nelson. While the extension made Nelson the eighth-highest-paid wideout in terms of annual value, it’s relatively modest in terms of guaranteed money — Nelson received only $11.5MM in guarantees in the form of signing bonus, good for just 23rd among receivers. Still, the deal will certainly remain relevant for the Packers throughout the rest of the season and the offseason, as they attempt to negotiate a new deal with another pass-catcher — fourth-year WR Randall Cobb.
Cobb, 24, entered the league as second-round pick out of Kentucky in 2011. After failing to start a game during his rookie year (but still offering value in the return game), Cobb broke out in his sophomore season, catching 80 passes for 954 yards and eight touchdowns. He ranked ninth in receiver DVOA, and graded as the 11th-best WR per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Injuries sapped Cobb’s effectiveness in 2013, as a fractured fibula limited him to just six games. He’s rebounded this season, however, catching 24 balls for 273 yards and six touchdowns through five games. Advanced metrics differ on Cobb’s 2014 performance so far — while DVOA rates him as top-3 receiver, PFF grades him as just the 24th-best wideout at this point in the season.
Before entering into negotiations with Cobb, the Packers will first have to decide how much they are comfortable spending on the receiver position. As noted, Nelson has already extended, meaning that a Cobb deal would likely place the team in the upper-echelon in terms of receiver expenditures. Currently, the Dolphins spend the most on WRs (by a large margin) at just over $32MM; the Redskins and Lions are second on third on that list, as each spends about $23MM on wideouts. For the Packers specifically, will the club’s emphasis on depth mean that they will refuse to overextend at one position, or will the league’s emphasis on passing lead Green Bay to heavily invest in its pass-catching unit?
Assuming Green Bay is interested in working out an extension with Cobb, it can look to several recent WR contracts when looking for comparables. The floor for a new Cobb deal is probably that of Emmanuel Sanders, who received $15MM over three years ($6MM guaranteed) from the Broncos during the offseason. Sanders is off to an incredible start through five games, but heading into the year, his career stats were less impressive than Cobb’s. As far as a ceiling, it’s safe to assume that Cobb won’t top Eric Decker‘s five-year, $36.25MM contract with the Jets. Both Cobb and Decker have caught passes from Hall of Fame level quarterbacks, and Decker’s production outweighs that of Cobb.
The best comparison for Cobb might be Golden Tate, the ex-Seahawk whose free agent contract with the Lions was worth $31MM over five years, with $8MM guaranteed. Physically, the two are alike — Cobb stands 5’10” and weighs 191 pounds, while Tate is listed at 5’11”, 195. Each offers value on special teams, and while Cobb is probably regarded as the better big-play threat, Tate has the surer hands. Cobb’s career highs in both receptions (80) and yards (954) best those of Tate (64, 898).
While Tate was never an injury risk in Seattle, the same can’t be said for Cobb. His injury woes lead me to believe that he will ultimately secure a deal that totals slightly less than that of Tate. Of course, a forward-looking team could view Cobb as an asset with untapped potential. At 26, Tate was viewed as a finished product when he signed his contract; he was a steady player who probably wasn’t going to get much better, or worse, during his time in Detroit. Cobb, however, has not only had to battle injuries, but compete for looks with Nelson in Green Bay. If a team aimed to acquire Cobb and install him as a true No. 1 receiver, the possibilities could be limitless.
Cobb ranked fifth on Mike Sando of ESPN.com’s June power ranking of 2015 free agent receivers, which was compiled after the scribe spoke with several NFL decision-makers. An offensive assistant was complimentary of Cobb, speaking more favorably of him than 49ers WR Michael Crabtree: “Cobb and Crabtree are interchangeable on my list,” said the assistant. “Cobb is the model person and will always show up on time. Crabtree comes off whinier, and the guy from Seattle [Richard Sherman] got in his head. Cobb is coming from the right program with Mike McCarthy, one with structure and discipline and doing the right things. Crabtree does play outside more, but I’d rather coach Cobb.”
Ultimately, if Cobb does remain in Green Bay, I’d expect him to sign a deal in the $5.5-6MM per year range, with perhaps $6MM guaranteed. Depending on how the contract was structured, it would probably move the Packers into the top-12 or so in terms of wide receiver spending; they currently rank 24th. The club has the financial wherewithal with which to work, as they have more than $18MM in 2015 cap space available.
For his part, Cobb said this summer that (at the time) his production didn’t warrant an extension. “I don’t believe I’ve done enough, and I think that’s on me,” Cobb told Jason Wilde of ESPN.com. “My job is … to work hard and hopefully my time will come.” Wilde’s ESPN colleague, Rob Demovsky, wrote earlier today that Cobb could be the one delaying negotiations, rather than the Packers, and noted that Cobb will need to show more before he asks for the type of money that Nelson received. Regardless of the specifics, Cobb’s case will be interesting to watch, both from the perspective of the player, who surely wants to match his teammate’s contract, and the front office, which is esteemed throughout the league.
PUP, IR-DTR Players Soon Eligible To Practice
Week 6 of the NFL season will come to an end after Monday night’s game between the 49ers and Rams, and when teams begin preparing for Week 7, many of those clubs may be welcoming some players back to practice. Six weeks into the NFL season, players who were placed on the physically unable to perform list or the injured reserve list with the designation to return prior to Week 1’s games will be eligible to return to practice.
Of course, just because those players are able to return to the practice field doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be healthy enough to do so. Players on the PUP list have a five-week window to begin practicing. Once they return to practice, they have three weeks to be added to their respective teams’ active rosters. In other words, a player on the PUP list could theoretically return for his team’s Week 7 game, or could return as late as for his team’s Week 15 contest. If the player doesn’t return to practice or game action in time, he’ll revert to season-ending injured reserve.
Here are the players currently on the physically unable to perform list who can begin practicing as soon as next week:
- 49ers: NaVorro Bowman (LB), Garrett Celek (TE), Kaleb Ramsey (DT)
- Chargers: Jeromey Clary (OL)
- Colts: Stanley Havili (FB)
- Falcons: Drew Davis (WR), Zeke Motta (S)
- Jets: Antwan Barnes (LB)
- Lions: T.J. Jones (WR)
- Panthers: De’Andre Presley (WR)
- Raiders: D.J. Hayden (CB)
- Ravens: Terrence Cody (DT)
- Redskins: Stephen Bowen (DE), Leonard Hankerson (WR)
- Saints: Cheta Ozougwu (OLB)
Players who began the season on the PUP list didn’t participate in any preseason practices, but that’s not the case for players on the injured reserve list with the designation to return. Teams can use this spot on one player per season, placing him on the injured reserve list without necessarily ruling him out for the season. As we explained in an earlier post, players given this designation can begin practicing after six weeks and can return after eight weeks.
That means that players who were placed on IR-DTR prior to Week 1 can begin practicing next week. A player who was placed on IR-DTR after – for instance – Week 2 will have to wait another two weeks to return to practice.
Here’s the list of players currently on IR-DTR who can begin practicing as soon as next week:
- 49ers: Glenn Dorsey (DT)
- Bears: Marquess Wilson (WR)
- Buccaneers: Charles Sims (RB)
- Chiefs: Joe Mays (LB)
- Colts: Xavier Nixon (T)
- Cowboys: Demarcus Lawrence (DE)
- Giants: Geoff Schwartz (G)
- Lions: Kyle Van Noy (LB)
- Packers: J.C. Tretter (C)
Extension Candidate: Brian Hoyer
It may seem like a lifetime ago now, but we’re only a few weeks removed from a time when the daily exploits of Johnny Manziel were consistently among the NFL’s hottest stories. Whether it was the rookie quarterback being spotted with a rolled-up dollar bill in Las Vegas or giving the middle finger to the Washington sideline during a preseason game, Manziel was making headlines all summer.
Five weeks into the regular season, Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson, Greg Hardy, and several other black eyes for the NFL likely have the league longing for the days when Manziel was its biggest newsmaker. But it’s not just those stories that have knocked the 22nd overall pick out of the news cycle. While many observers believed Manziel would’ve assumed the starting role in Cleveland by now, the former Heisman winner has only seen the field for the occasional gimmick play, having being otherwise sidelined by the strong play of veteran starter Brian Hoyer.
As Adam Caplan of ESPN.com noted this week (via Twitter), Hoyer’s agent Joe Linta and the Browns had just one conversation about the QB’s contract status prior to the season, following the draft. Although we heard at the time that the team had interest in extending Hoyer’s deal, Caplan says (via Twitter) that the two sides were far apart. However, the ESPN.com scribe believes that Hoyer’s play through Cleveland’s first four games will “eventually bring both sides together for an extension.”
Hoyer, who turns 29 next Monday, hasn’t exactly been maintaining a Peyton Manning-esque pace through his first four contests this season, but his numbers are very solid — the Michigan State product has completed 62.1% of his passes, is averaging more than 250 yards per game, and has thrown just one interception to go along with his six TD passes.
Most importantly, for a Cleveland team that was expected to occupy the cellar in the AFC North, Hoyer has engineered big wins over the Saints and Titans, leading fourth-quarter comebacks in both games. The Browns still face an uphill battle in a division that features the 3-1 Bengals, as well as the 3-2 Ravens and Steelers, but combined with his 3-0 record as a starter last season, Hoyer’s record so far this year shows that he’s capable of earning victories that many NFL starting QBs wouldn’t.
Assuming Hoyer’s strong play continues, an extension certainly seems within the realm of possibility. But there was a reason the two sides were far apart in the offseason, and there’s a reason that former Browns CEO Joe Banner refers to it as “one of the toughest contract decisions on both sides” that he has ever seen (Twitter link). With Manziel in the mix, it’s still not clear if Hoyer projects as Cleveland’s long-term starter, which is presumably how he’ll want to be paid. Knowing they have the inexpensive Manziel as a fall-back option, the Browns won’t be eager to break the bank for Hoyer, and an extension would mean risking having him turn into the NFL’s most overpaid backup.
The uncertainty about Hoyer’s long-term role is the primary reason why both sides may be inclined to keep extension discussions on hold for now, but it’s still worth examining what sort of figures Hoyer’s camp and the Browns might propose if negotiations take place during the season. The former Patriot will certainly be in line for a raise on 2014’s modest $1MM base salary, but by how much?
One point of comparison for the Browns may be Kyle Orton‘s two-year, $11MM deal with the Bills. Orton is the starter in Buffalo now, but when he was signed, the team regarded him as a backup to E.J. Manuel. At an average rate of $5.5MM per year, Orton was paid more than virtually every other backup in the league because the Bills recognized that a change may be necessary if the erratic Manuel struggled out of the gates.
Josh McCown‘s two-year, $10MM contract with the Buccaneers is a similar pact, though Tampa Bay viewed McCown as its starter heading into the season. The former Bear earned that deal after a brief, successful run as the starter in Chicago — while his numbers during that 2013 stretch were fantastic, a combination of his age and his mediocre career production kept the overall value of the pact in check.
Unlike Orton and McCown though, Hoyer is on the right side of age 30, and is showing he’s capable of acting as more than just the caretaker of an offense. His track record may not be extensive, but Hoyer has never been given the opportunity to prove himself as a starter, and now that he’s getting that chance, he’s proving he shouldn’t be moved down the depth chart anytime soon. If the Browns aren’t willing to offer him fair market value, other teams will be interested in the offseason, and assuming his play doesn’t fall off a cliff over the remainder of the season, Hoyer should be able to land a deal worth more than Orton’s or McCown’s on the open market.
From Linta’s perspective, it’s difficult to point to another player that represents a logical comparable for his client. Few quarterbacks have Hoyer’s combination of talent and inexperience at age 29, and that lack of a track record will almost certainly keep the Browns quarterback from landing a top-15 kind of deal. Perhaps a multiyear contract in the range of $8-10MM per year will make sense for Hoyer — as Over the Cap’s data shows, that’s currently a no-man’s land on the quarterback market, with no contracts averaging anything between Carson Palmer‘s $8MM and Tom Brady‘s $11.4MM.
Ultimately, it seems the Browns could be forced to make a decision between Hoyer or Manziel, and considering what a black hole the quarterback position has been for the team for the last several years, there’s no need to rush that decision. It makes sense for the Browns to wait until season’s end to see what they have in Hoyer. At that point, an extension could make a lot of sense for Cleveland. Even if the club intends to give Manziel an opportunity in the near future, he’ll be on an affordable rookie contract for several more seasons — that means there will be flexibility under the cap to pay Hoyer and potentially move on from Hoyer’s contract if and when Manziel proves he should be the No. 1 option in Cleveland.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Matt Prater
Kicker is among the most volatile positions in the NFL — in fact, 41% of kickers (13-of-32) weren’t with their current team as recently as 2012. With a position that fluid, teams look fondly upon stability, meaning available solid veterans won’t be out of work for long. In the case of Matt Prater, it might be mere days until he finds a new job.
Prater, 30, entered the league in 2005 as an undrafted free agent out of Central Florida. Like most kickers, he was extremely nomadic during the early portion of his career, spending time with the Lions, Dolphins, and Falcons before becoming the Broncos’ full-time kicker in 2008. During his time in Denver, Prater converted 82.9% of field goals. 2013 was perhaps his best season to date, as he made 25-of-26 field goals, and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 placekicker (subscription required).
Though other external factors could have been at play, it seems that two components played a part in the Broncos releasing Prater on Friday — off-the-field issues and cap space. Prater was suspended for the first four games of 2014 for violating the league’s substance abuse policy; he was also arrested for DUI in both 2008 and 2011. Given the NFL’s hyper-sensitivity to distractions, it’s no wonder Denver decided to part ways with a relatively replaceable player who was causing trouble.
Replacing Prater as the Broncos kicker is Brandon McManus, a second-year player earning just $410K this season. Prater, meanwhile, was set to count more than $7MM against Denver’s cap during 2014-15. As Jason Fitzgerald observed on yesterday’s Over the Cap podcast, the Broncos have several extensions looming, as both Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas are in line for new contracts. Additionally, said Fitzgerald, Denver’s high-octane offense means the team isn’t often settling for field goals, lessening the need for a high-priced kicker. It simply didn’t make financial sense for the Broncos to keep Prater around, so they cut him before his 2014 salary became guaranteed.
The list of teams in need of a kicker could certainly change as the season progresses, but right now, it seems as though the Lions could be a perfect fit for Prater. After waiving Nate Freese following his early-season struggles, Detroit brought in ex-Eagle Alex Henery. Henery, however, missed all three of his field goal attempts in today’s game against the Bills, and is now 1-for-5 on the season. Both Kyle Meinke of MLive.com and Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com suggested that the Lions could be interested in Prater, and that was before Henery’s misfires this afternoon. Fitzgerald notes (via Twitter) that Detroit, which only has about $1MM in cap space, might have to restructure some contracts or defer money until 2015 in order to sign Prater.
La Canfora also mentioned the Saints as a possibility for Prater, while I’d add that the Titans could soon be interested in moving on from Ryan Succop, who missed both of his field goal attempts in Week 3 and is 6-for-8 on the season. Ultimately, Prater will likely find a new team shortly, and it seems as though Detroit could be his destination.
PFR Originals: 9/28/14 – 10/5/14
The original content produced by the PFR staff during this past week:
- In our ‘extension candidate’ series, Dallas Robinson took a look at Seahawks defense end Cliff Avril, while Luke Adams checked out Eagles wide receiver Jeremy Maclin.
- There were also a pair of polls this week. Prior to Dennis Allen being fired by the Raiders, Rob DiRe asked if the coach deserved to be let go (about 65% of you said yes).
- In the other poll, Zach Links asked which NFL coach will be canned next. Jets coach Rex Ryan was the leading vote-getter, followed closely by Dolphins coach Joe Philbin.