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Extension Candidate: Charles Clay

August 17th, 2014 at 7:36pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Given that later rounds of the NFL draft tend to be crapshoots, the success of two players selected in the sixth round of the 2011 draft is something at which to marvel. The more notable player, chosen with pick No. 191, is Eagles center Jason Kelce. The former Cincinnati Bearcat, now regarded as one of the best centers in the league, was signed to a six-year, $37.5MM extension in February.Charles Clay

Chosen 17 picks before Kelce was a slightly more anonymous player — tight end Charles Clay. Clay, 25, is not only entering the his fourth season with the Dolphins, but the final year of his rookie contract. As such, he could be a candidate for a new deal that, if not equal to the length and/or compensation of Kelce, more correctly aligns with his production. In fact, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports that Clay’s agent has approached the Dolphins about an extension, but the talks haven’t led to any serious negotiations.

Clay entered the league three years ago after playing college ball at Tulsa. During his rookie season, he displayed versatility by spending time at both tight end and fullback, but finished with just 16 receptions for 233 yards and three touchdowns. After transitioning to playing solely TE in 2012, he ended the year with a nearly identical statistical line. Clay broke out in 2013, however, displaying a rapport with quarterback Ryan Tannehill and catching 69 balls for 759 yards and six touchdowns — he also rushed the ball seven times.

Advanced metrics don’t indicate as much positive development for Clay as do traditional stats. Pro Football Focus’ grades (subscription required) have painted Clay as merely ordinary over the course of his career — he ranked as just the 36th- and 34th-best tight end in the league in 2012 and 2013 respectively. Last year, specifically, PFF painted Clay as a well above-average pass-catcher, but lackluster in terms of pass-blocking. Football Outsiders has a similar opinion of Clay, as he finished 41st and 20th in DVOA over the past two years.

There are several potential roadblocks regarding extension talks from the Dolphins’ point of view, two of which Jackson notes. First, Clay only has one season of above-average production; Miami might want to wait and see if he is able to maintain last year’s level of play. Second, Clay recently aggravated his surgically-repaired knee, so the Dolphins could be wary of further injury risk. It’s just my speculation, but the Dolphins might also be worried about Clay’s fit in new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor’s scheme. Lazor worked under Chip Kelly in Philadelphia last year, and tight ends weren’t overly featured in the Eagles offense.

So what would a Clay extension look like? He probably won’t match Kyle Rudolph‘s five-year, $36.5MM deal — Rudolph had a second-round pedigree, and the Vikings were likely projecting a big season for the fourth-year TE with the help of offensive coordinator Norv Turner. Further down the list of tight end contracts is Jared Cook‘s five-year, $35.1MM pact with the Rams, which now looks like a major overpay. Descend further, and find the contracts of Brandon Pettigrew and Anthony Fasano that probably set the floor for Clay — four years, $16MM, with between $4-5MM guaranteed.

Among tight ends, there isn’t a perfect comparable with which to juxtapose Clay. The best deal to view might be that of Martellus Bennett, who received a $5.1MM AAV over four years, with $5.215MM in guarantees. Bennett is probably a better overall player, but Clay is two years younger and offers more versatility. The Dolphins will have to judge whether they value Clay as much as the Bears valued Bennett. In the end, I would guess a deal gets worked out, perhaps in-season. Working with an innovative coordinator like Lazor, Clay could be in for an even bigger season, and Miami could win big with a forward-looking contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Sports Images.

PFR Originals: 8/10/14 – 8/17/14

August 17th, 2014 at 1:59pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

The Effect Of Dwayne Bowe’s Suspension

August 15th, 2014 at 6:27pm CST by Luke Adams

While we wait for the NFL to announce its decisions on players like Josh Gordon and Aldon Smith, who will likely face lengthy suspensions for the 2014 season, the league confirmed today that another player will be banned from his team’s Week 1 contest next month — Chiefs wideout Dwayne Bowe was suspended for a game as a result of his arrest for marijuana possession last fall.Dwayne Bowe

On the surface, a one-game penalty for Bowe may not seem like a significant blow for him or his team, but as former agent Joel Corry of CBSSports.com points out (via Twitter), the remaining base salary guarantees on Bowe’s contract are voided as a result of his suspension. Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap breaks down the specifics, writing that the 29-year-old previously had his full $8.75MM salary for 2014 guaranteed, along with $1.5MM of his $10.75MM salary for 2015. Now that he’s been suspended, those guarantees are no longer in place.

According to Fitzgerald, the elimination of the guarantee on Bowe’s 2014 salary is merely semantic — in Fitzgerald’s view, we’re so close to the start of the regular season that it won’t make a huge difference for the Chiefs, who will rely on the receiver to be one of Alex Smith‘s favorite targets this season. On the other hand, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk outlines a scenario in which the voided guarantee could create a window for Kansas City to part ways with Bowe, likely by releasing him rather than trading him.

Prior to the suspension, Bowe’s contract, which has a cap number of $12MM for the 2014 season and $14MM for 2015, would have counted as $11.75MM in dead money this year and $10.5MM in dead money for next year if the Chiefs had cut him — in other words, the cap savings would have been minimal. Now, Kansas City could release him and take a 2014 cap penalty of just $3MM ($9MM in savings), with the remaining $9MM hitting next year’s cap. As Florio points out, such a move would not only create a sizable chunk of cap space immediately for the Chiefs – perhaps making it easier to sign Smith to a long-term extension – but it could open the door for Bowe to land with a receiver-needy team like the Browns.

For now though, that line of thought appears to just be speculative. While the lack of guaranteed money on Bowe’s 2015 salary will be something to consider for the Chiefs when they decide whether to keep him the veteran wideout around beyond this season, the odds of the club releasing him in the coming weeks are slim. As Terez Paylor of the Kansas City Star tweets, as much as the Chiefs talk about liking their young wideouts, Bowe is still their No. 1 option, and cutting him would come off as a signal the club is punting on the 2014 season.

Bowe’s one-game suspension and voided guarantees will give the Chiefs something to think about as they consider their short- and long-term options at receiver. And perhaps one of the team’s other wideouts will shine in the game Bowe misses, setting the stage for a breakout season that makes the former Pro Bowler more expendable at year’s end. At the moment, however, it’s presumptuous to assume that his one-game ban will affect Bowe’s 2014 status in Kansas City.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Important Remaining 2014 NFL Dates

August 13th, 2014 at 12:12pm CST by Luke Adams

Way back in January, in the week leading up to the Super Bowl, we took a look ahead at many of the important offseason dates on the NFL calendar, including the opening of free agency and draft weekend. However, the last of those key dates came and went in July, so now that training camps and the preseason are in full swing, it’s time to revisit the NFL calendar and check out the most crucial remaining dates in 2014.

Here’s a breakdown of several of the key dates to keep an eye on in the coming weeks and months:

August 26: Teams must reduce their 90-man rosters to 75 players by 3:00pm central time.
August 27: Teams trying out players on this date and for the rest of the season must report those workouts to the commissioner’s office.
August 30: Teams must reduce their 75-man rosters to 53 players by 3:00pm central time. Any players on the active/PUP or active/non-football injury or illness lists may be moved to the reserve versions of those lists.
August 31: Claiming period for players waived during final roster cuts ends at 11:00am central time. After that point, teams may establish a practice squad of 10 players.

September 2: After 3:00pm central time, teams are permitted to place one player on the injured reserve list with the designation to return.
September 3: After 3:00pm central time, all contracts for each team must fit under the salary cap (top-51 rule expires at 11:00pm central time).
September 23: Waiver priority order adjusted to become based on the reverse order of 2014’s standings.

October 7-8: Fall league meetings in New York City.
October 14: Players who are on the reserve/PUP and reserve/NFI lists are allowed to begin practicing for the next 21 days. Players must be activated or placed on injured reserve by 3:00pm central time on the day following the expiration of that 21-day window.
October 28: Trade deadline at 3:00pm central time.
October 29: All released players subject to waivers for rest of regular season and postseason.

December 27: By 3:00pm central time, teams must provide written notice of the amount of unused 2014 salary cap space to be rolled over to the 2015 cap.
December 29: Teams may begin signing players to reserve/futures contracts for the 2015 season. Teams may also begin exercising fifth-year options on 2012 first-round picks and signing 2012 draftees to contract extensions.

NFL.com and The Phinsider were used in the creation of this post.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Richie Incognito

August 10th, 2014 at 4:31pm CST by Dallas Robinson

As I noted in my evaluation of Jonathan Vilma‘s free agency stock, there are several positions in today’s NFL that are quite fungible — among them are running back, inside linebacker, and offensive guard. Of these devalued positions, guard might be the spot where veteran experience is still highly esteemed. Unlike the backfield or a front seven, a successful offensive line requires not only talent, but a sort of unspoken connectivity among the linemen. The best front fives in football are often those who have experienced stability, allowing the five players to mesh.Richie Incognito

If a team suffers a guard injury in the coming weeks, it may not want to turn to a rookie or another unseasoned young player. Rather, a team in need of line help might seek a veteran player with several years of experience under his belt. At this point in the offseason, however, such players don’t come without warts, so if and when a team looks for reinforcements at guard, the best remaining option might be the embattled Richie Incognito.

The reason why Incognito is still unemployed is obvious — his involvement in the Jonathan Martin scandal, during which Incognito bullied and harassed Martin until he left the team, is unsettling, to say the least. From an outsider’s perspective, it’s hard to judge whether Incognito’s behavior was incongruent with that of a typical NFL locker room. But the fact that he remains unsigned is an indication that either teams were disturbed by Incognito’s conduct, or aren’t willing to handle the media swarm that would occur following his signing.

But despite Incognito’s troubles, the reality of the NFL is that talent wins out. Players like Michael Vick and Ben Roethlisberger were accused of and/or charged with unsavory acts, but both were allowed back into the NFL. Vick was signed to a massive extension with the Eagles, and the Steelers will look to tack on years to Roethlisberger’s deal after 2014. If a player is able to compete at a high level, the league tends to look the other way when it comes to his past.

The 6’3″, 320-pound Incognito has certainly displayed effectiveness since entering the NFL as a third-round pick of the Rams in 2006. After several anger-related incidents, and racking up 38 penalites (seven unnecessary roughness calls), he was waived by St. Louis in 2009. After being claimed by the Bills, he spent one season in Buffalo before playing with the Dolphins from 2010-13. He was suspended indefinitely in November of last year, and his contract expired after the season.

In total, Incognito has started 102 games over the course of his career, spending time at both guard spots (though he has played only left guard in recent seasons). Pro Football Focus’ data (subscription required) only goes back to 2007, but the site’s advanced metrics have positively graded each of Incognito’s seasons. For most of his career, PFF’s statistics indicated that Incognito was a better run-blocker than pass-protector, but since 2012, those data points have flipped. Regardless, Incognito is unquestionably a top-30 guard, and topped out as the 16th-best guard in the league in 2010.

So will Incognito find a team for 2014? It’s difficult to project — on May 28, one general manager told Mike Freeman of Bleacher Report that despite Incognito’s attempts to get back in the league, his return was unlikely, as “no one trusts him.” A month later, sources were telling Freeman’s colleague, Dan Pompei, that while Incognito is easily the best available interior lineman, no team wants to deal with the fallout of signing him. However, on August 8, Incognito told Josh Peter of USA Today that his agent had received “a few nibbles” from teams during the offseason.

Any team that brings in Incognito will factor in the possibility that he will be suspended and miss a portion of 2014. However, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell recently sounded quite pleased with Incognito’s headway since the bullying incident took place. “It’s a broad issue,” said Goodell, via Connor Orr of the Newark Star-Ledger. “I would say that the one person who has been very responsive in going through the program has been Richie Incognito. We’re working with his people and monitoring his progress on that front.”

The Giants could have interest in Incognito — longtime guard Chris Snee announced his retirement last month, and New York had no problem bringing in Incognito’s former teammate John Jerry, who was also involved in the Martin scandal. The Buccaneers, who parted ways with Carl Nicks on July 25, could also use help at guard. Additionally, teams will inevitably suffer injuries at the position as the preseason proceeds, and will seek to add veteran depth.

In the end, Incognito’s fate will be determined by a simple cost-benefit analysis: Factoring in the inexorable media pressure that would ensue, is Incognito’s above-average play worth the headache of adding him? My guess is yes — his talent is undeniable, and a team will eventually get desperate enough to sign him. Guaranteed money or a guaranteed roster spot will be out of the question, but some team will be willing to take a gamble on Incognito in order to reap the reward.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PFR Originals: 8/3/14 – 8/10/14

August 10th, 2014 at 1:36pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • We finished up our Offseason in Review series, as Zach Links examined the Panthers and the Seahawks. Check out all a complete roundup of all our posts in the series here.
  • In our latest Extension Candidate piece, Luke Adams profiled Panthers quarterback Cam Newton, who is signed through 2015 thanks to Carolina exercising his fifth-year option.

2014 Offseason In Review Series

August 8th, 2014 at 11:28am CST by Luke Adams

Over the last several weeks, with the 2014 regular season fast approaching, the Pro Football Rumors writing team has been taking a look back at the offseason. Zach Links, Rob DiRe, Rory Parks, Dallas Robinson, David Kipke, and Ben Levine have tackled all 32 teams, examining free agent signings, trades, draft picks, and all the other moves made by clubs in 2014, breaking down what sort of impact those decisions will have going forward. If you missed any of our Offseason in Review posts, be sure to check them out below, where we’ve rounded them all up in one place:

AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

NFC East

NFC North

NFC South

NFC West

Offseason In Review: Seattle Seahawks

August 7th, 2014 at 7:29pm CST by Zachary Links

Notable signings:

Notable losses:

Extensions and restructures:

Trades:

  • Acquired Terrelle Pryor from the Raiders in exchange for a seventh-round pick (No. 247).
  • Acquired a second-round pick (No. 40) and a fourth-round pick (No. 108) from the Vikings in exchange for a first-round pick (No. 32).
  • Acquired a second-round pick (No. 45), a fourth-round pick (No. 111), and a seventh-round pick (No. 227) from the Lions in exchange for a second-round pick (No. 40) and a fifth-round pick (No. 146).
  • Acquired a fourth-round pick (No. 123) and a sixth-round pick (No. 199) from the Bengals in exchange for a fourth-round pick (No. 111).

Draft picks:

  • Paul Richardson, WR, Colorado (2.45): Signed
  • Justin Britt, OT, Missouri (2.64): Signed
  • Cassius Marsh, DE, UCLA (4.108): Signed
  • Kevin Norwood, WR, Alabama (4.123): Signed
  • Kevin Pierre-Louis, LB, Boston College (4.132): Signed
  • Jimmy Staten, DT, Middle Tennessee State (5.172): Signed
  • Garrett Scott, OT, Marshall (6.199): Signed, and later waived due to health issues
  • Eric Pinkins, S, San Diego State (6.208): Signed
  • Kiero Small, FB, Arkansas (7.227): Signed

Other:

What’s that cheesy adage? “Save the best for last“? Well, here at Pro Football Rumors we did just that. Here’s a look back at the Seahawks’ offseason as they look to repeat as Super Bowl champions.

Seattle’s bid to reach the top of the mountain again in the years to come won’t be easy, but it’ll be made easier thanks to their success in retaining their most critical pieces. Outspoken cornerback Richard Sherman got a deal that made him the highest paid cornerback in the NFL – at least for a couple of months or so. The corner got four new years that will pay him $56MM with roughly $12.4MM guaranteed. Big bucks, but it’s money well spent if the Legion of Boom’s leader continues his stellar play. The 26-year-old is one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks and you could certainly make the case he deserves to be atop that list. Pro Football Focus’ grades (subscription required) ranked Sherman outside the top five at the position in 2013, though quarterbacks compiled a meager 47.3 QB rating on passes into his coverage, which was the best mark in the league. The former fifth-round pick also grabbed a league-leading eight interceptions in 2013.Richard Sherman

Seattle also gave safety Earl Thomas a four-year extension that made him the highest-paid safety in the NFL. Thomas earned an All-Pro spot in back-to-back years, and has made three straight Pro Bowls. According to Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required), Thomas has recorded a positive grade every year of his career, and ranked ninth among 86 qualified safeties in 2013. He also recorded 127 tackles and grabbed five interceptions last season.

Not everyone in the Seahawks’ secondary will be returning, however. Brandon Browner, who played on the opposite side of the field from Sherman at cornerback, inked a three-year deal with the Patriots that could be worth up to $17MM when all is said and done. The 6’4″ corner wasn’t the star of the show, obviously, but he did wind up covering a lot of No. 1 receiving targets since Sherman didn’t follow No. 1 WRs across the formation. Walter Thurmond was also a valuable part of Seattle’s secondary last season, even though he missed four games due to a violation of the league’s substance abuse policy. Still, he recorded 24 tackles to go along with one interception and one sack and he’ll now take his talents to the Meadowlands to join forces with the Giants.

Moving to the defensive line, the Seahawks managed to keep Michael Bennett, one of the top available free agents this offseason, with a lucrative four-year deal. The 28-year-old settled for a one-year deal with Seattle last offseason and boosted his value tremendously by registering 8.5 sacks and 65 quarterback pressures. According to Pro Football Focus’ metrics, Bennett’s was the NFL’s fifth-best 4-3 defensive end in 2013 — his 617 defensive snaps were also the fewest of any ends in PFF’s top 10, making his overall grades and stats even more impressive. On the interior of the d-line, Tony McDaniel will return after agreeing to a two-year deal with a max payout of $6.3MM. The 29-year-old appeared in all 16 games last season, something he hasn’t accomplished since 2009, and also was a regular starter for the first time.

To help make room for Bennett’s new contract, the Seahawks bid farewell to Red Bryant and Chris Clemons. Bryant spent all six seasons of his NFL career in Seattle and started in 15 games last season, registering 17 tackles and 1.5 sacks. Chris Clemons, who was set to have a cap hit of nearly $10MM in 2014, was released after a down year. The 32-year-old recorded at least 11 sacks in his first three seasons with the Seahawks, but recovery from a torn ACL slowed him down in 2013, resulting in just 4.5 sacks and a -7.7 grade from Pro Football Focus, which placed him 42nd among 52 qualified 4-3 defensive ends.

The offensive line will look a little bit different this season after Breno Giacomini left for the Jets and Michael Bowie was waived earlier this week. Giacomini, who is currently tearing things up for Gang Green in practice, missed significant time during the regular season but came back and started at right tackle for the Super Bowl champs. Bowie, a 2013 seventh-round choice, was thrust into significant playing time thanks to injuries on the o-line and played well, but dissatisfaction from the team’s front office with his conditioning apparently spelled the end for him in Seattle.

Golden Tate started the offseason by saying that he’d take a hometown discount to stay with the Seahawks before quickly walking those comments back. Ultimately, he spurned Seattle to sign with the Lions. After the most productive season of his career in which he hauled in 64 catches for 898 yards and five touchdowns, that loss could sting. However, there are a lot of people who are big fans of early second-round choice Paul Richardson. The speedster battled back from injury to have a strong final season at Colorado and he’ll be there as an insurance policy for the oft-injured Percy Harvin. Still, Seattle could wind up wishing they still had Tate this season if they stumble in the passing game or if they’re unable to get the same sort of production on returns.

It seemed somewhat doubtful at different points this offseason, but Marshawn Lynch will return after a lengthy holdout resulted in a few contract tweaks. He won’t get any new money, but a bit more money given up front was enough to get Beast Mode back in the fold. There was some talk this summer that the Seahawks would go with a running back by committee approach, but Lynch and his fantasy owners can breath a little easier now that Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell has backed off of his earlier comments on the matter.

The Seahawks will have many of their key pieces, including coach Pete Carroll, in place for the foreseeable future, but staying at the top in the NFL is tremendously difficult. Keeping the band together is great, but it remains to be seen whether they can win in the tremendously competitive NFC West.

Spotrac and Over The Cap were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Carolina Panthers

August 6th, 2014 at 7:34pm CST by Zachary Links

Notable signings:

Notable losses:

Extensions and restructures:

Trades:

  • Acquired a fifth-round pick (No. 148) from the Falcons in exchange for a fifth-round pick (No. 168) and a seventh-round pick (No. 225).

Draft picks:

  • Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State (1.28): Signed
  • Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri (2.60): Signed
  • Trai Turner, G, LSU (3.92): Signed
  • Tre Boston, S, North Carolina (4.128): Signed
  • Bene’ Benwikere, CB, San Jose State (5.148): Signed
  • Tyler Gaffney, RB, Stanford (6.204): Signed, then waived

Other:

Without a question, more attention was paid to what the Panthers lost this offseason than the additions that they made. That’ll happen when you part ways with your all-time leading receiver and face of the franchise.

There were rumblings in March that the Panthers would look to get out from under Steve Smith‘s contract either via trade or release. On March 13th, after they were unable to find a suitable deal, they dropped Smith and designated him as a post-June 1st cut, which will stretch some of the dead money out to 2015. While fans were upset to see Smith, who amassed 836 receptions for 12,197 yards and 67 touchdowns receiving during his time in Carolina, get the ax, it was a move that made sense considering that the 35-year-old is no longer a No. 1 receiver. Longtime teammate Brandon LaFell will also be plying his craft elsewhere and Ted Ginn Jr. wasn’t retained even though he became a bigger part of the passing game in 2013.

Carolina’s all-new receiving corps has potential but inarguably has less star power without Smith. Jerricho Cotchery, who was once viewed as a top option with the Jets, came to Carolina after spending the last three seasons with the Steelers. The 31-year-old is coming off of his best season in years as he recorded 46 receptions and 602 receiving yards with a career-high 10 touchdowns. It’s a five-year, $8.0155MM deal, but it has just $2.25MM guaranteed and the final three years of the pact are voidable. Cotchery alone won’t replace the production of Smith but he comes at a considerably lower cost and little risk.

Joining Cotchery in the new receiver stable will be former Rutgers speedster Tiquan Underwood and ex-Eagles mainstay Jason Avant. The most important WR addition, however, came in the draft when the Panthers tabbed Florida State’s Kelvin Benjamin with the 28th overall pick. Benjamin doesn’t have a long history of dominance, but the Florida State product has looked sharp so far in training camp and boasts tremendous size. He could very well be the Panthers’ No. 1 passing option when all is said and done this season.

The Panthers lost another longtime mainstay in offensive tackle Jordan Gross. The 33-year-old spent his entire 11-year career with the Panthers and consistently graded out as one of the league’s best tackles. One might have expected Carolina to replace Gross with a similarly experienced and talented tackle, but they didn’t quite do that. Right tackle Byron Bell, who was retained with a restricted free agent tender, or the newly-extended Nate Chandler will be expected to step up and fill his shoes, but it would be surprising if they could protect Cam Newton‘s blindside better than Gross did. Longtime Panthers lineman Travelle Wharton also decided to hang ’em up this offseason.

On the other side of the ball, the Panthers used the franchise tag on defensive end Greg Hardy and did not reach a long-term deal with him prior to the March 11th deadline. The 25-year-old has racked up 26 total sacks in the last two seasons, and ranked as the third-best and sixth-best 4-3 defensive end in those two years, according to Pro Football Focus’ metrics (subscription required). Still, given his off-the-field troubles, the Panthers are surely having second thoughts about making a long-term commitment to him. Speaking of the defensive end position, the Panthers used their second round choice on Missouri DE Kony Ealy. Ealy might be a couple of years away from producing, but it’s believed that he has tremendous upside. To fulfill his potential, he’ll have to start eating and lifting a whole lot more than he has been.

Mike Mitchell left Carolina to team up with Troy Polamalu in Pittsburgh and the Panthers used this as an opportunity to make changes at both safety spots. Longtime Saints notable Roman Harper will man the strong safety position while Thomas DeCoud is slotted in as either the No. 1 or No. 2 free safety. The 31-year-old Harper only started five games for the Saints in 2013 and became the odd man out when the team signed Jairus Byrd to pair with Kenny Vaccaro at safety, but he’s out to prove he has plenty of quality football left. DeCoud’s role, whether it will be as a starter or as a swing defensive back, will depend on what Carolina does with Charles Godfrey. Godfrey is coming off of Achilles surgery and could either start at FS or move around in the secondary in a reserve role. While DeCoud started for the Falcons for the last five years and is a former Pro Bowler, he had by far the worst season of his career in 2013. The 29-year-old racked up just 44 tackles and failed to intercept a pass for the first time since becoming a starter. 

While the Panthers will have to think things over when it comes to Hardy and his future in Carolina, they’ll also have to give some thought to what kind of offer they’ll want to make to star quarterback Cam Newton. The price for quarterbacks has soared this offseason thanks to lucrative deals for the likes of Jay Cutler and Alex Smith. This week, however, Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton appears to have set the watermark for the “middle class” quarterback with his six-year, $96MM extension. While many would argue that Newton is a greater talent than Dalton, the deal didn’t continue the trend of truly mammoth contracts and doesn’t help Cam’s case. For now, the Panthers exercised Newton’s $14.666MM option for the 2015 season so they’ll have time to work something out before he can hit the open market.

The Panthers’ offseason wasn’t pretty thanks to a less-than-desirable cap situation and one has to wonder if their new receiving corps and the offensive line sans Jordan Gross can put them where they want to be in 2014.

Spotrac and Over The Cap were used in the creation of this post.

Extension Candidate: Cam Newton

August 5th, 2014 at 12:10pm CST by Luke Adams

After nearly a full offseason without a 2011 first-round draft pick signing a contract extension, a pair of players kicked things off once training camp got underway, as cornerback Patrick Peterson inked a long-term deal with the Cardinals, followed by offensive tackle Tyron Smith doing the same with the Cowboys. Still, the introduction of the fifth-year option for first-round picks has slowed – or at least delayed – negotiations for most of the first-rounders from 2011, the best of whom are now locked up through 2015 thanks to those options.Cam Newton

It has created something of a paradox, as the star players perhaps most deserving of new deals still don’t have them, while 2011 draftees selected in later rounds have more leverage to get something done. In recent weeks, two noteworthy quarterbacks drafted in 2011 have signed new contracts, as Colin Kaepernick reached a long-term agreement with the 49ers, and Andy Dalton put pen to paper to remain with the Bengals. Both Kaepernick and Dalton were second-round picks, meaning they were entering contract years. On the other hand, 2011’s first overall pick, Cam Newton, is currently under contract through 2015 after Carolina exercised his fifth-year option, which gives the team an extra year to work something out.

Nonetheless, even if Newton and the Panthers aren’t likely to announce a new deal before the calendar turns over to 2015, the 25-year-old is a strong candidate to receive a contract extension at some point. So it’s worth exploring what sort of deal he may eventually sign.

Unlike some of his contemporaries, Newton took over his club’s starting job from day one, having started all 48 games for the Panthers over the course of his three NFL seasons. The Auburn product was also effective immediately, racking up over 4,000 passing yards and running for an incredible 14 touchdowns in his rookie season — he has yet to match or surpass either total. Still, while Newton’s first season may have been his most impressive statistically, he has helped the Panthers steadily improve in the years since, going from six wins in 2011 to seven in 2012 before leading the team to an NFC South crown with a 12-4 record in 2013.

Newton is the Panthers’ quarterback of the future — the team is confident of that much. And that simple fact means the floor on his next contract should be fairly high. It’s hard to argue, for instance, that Newton should receive any less than Dalton, who agreed to a six-year, $96MM pact that can be worth up to $115MM depending on whether the Bengals have postseason success with Dalton at the controls. Still, the structure of Dalton’s contract makes it fairly team-friendly, allowing Cincinnati to part ways with him cheaply after two or three seasons if the club isn’t happy with his progress. Newton seems more likely to push for the kind of deals signed by the likes of Jay Cutler and Tony Romo — not only is the annual base value on those extensions a little higher (around $18MM per year), but the up-front guarantees ($38-40MM) are significantly more sizable than the ones earned by Dalton and Kaepernick.

Cutler and Romo signed those contracts despite not having extensive postseason success, so Newton’s lack of playoff experience shouldn’t necessarily hurt his leverage significantly. But Newton also hasn’t posted the kind of huge regular season passing numbers that Romo has — over the last three years, the Cowboys’ quarterback has averaged 4,305 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, and just 13 interceptions, compared to 3,766, 21, and 14 for Newton.

A key issue in negotiations between Newton and the Panthers will be the question of how much value his running ability adds to his overall worth. With 28 rushing touchdowns in three years, Newton essentially makes up the difference between his and Romo’s passing TD totals with his legs. However, a quarterback’s ability to run the ball usually takes a hit as he ages, and if the Panthers want to commit to Newton for five or six additional seasons, they’ll need to consider how long his rushing ability will help compensate for his middling passing production, or whether they expect those passing skills to improve.

As is, Newton has ranked among Pro Football Focus’ top 15 quarterbacks in each of his first three seasons (subscription required), but he has also posted the lowest passing grade among the top 15 in all three seasons — overall, PFF has assigned Newton a +39.0 career grade for his running, compared to a -2.4 career mark for his passing. By comparison, Ryan Fitzpatrick (0.0), Eli Manning (-0.3), and Kellen Clemens (-0.6) were among the quarterbacks with better passing grades than Newton in 2013.

With negotiations between Newton and the Panthers unlikely to significantly ramp up until after the 2014 season, one also has to wonder if Newton’s value could dip between now and then. So far, the 25-year-old has avoided big hits and has stayed very healthy, but running quarterbacks are generally more likely to be injured than pocket passers. Additionally, even if Newton plays another 16 games this season, his offensive weapons are a little lacking, after the club saw receivers Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell, Ted Ginn, and Domenik Hixon depart via free agency. First-round pick Kelvin Benjamin should help, and free agent signees Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant are reliable enough, but the group probably won’t strike fear into many cornerbacks’ hearts. Although Newton should still post solid numbers, his overhauled receiving corps limits his chances at a breakout year.

Ultimately, despite the fact that he was a No. 1 pick, Newton looks more likely to be rewarded with a contract extension in the Kapernick/Dalton mold rather than signing a Cutler/Romo-esque deal. I expect Newton to land a little more guaranteed money than Kaepernick or Dalton did, in part because the Panthers’ lack of cap flexibility may encourage the team to include a larger signing bonus with smaller first- and second-year salaries. To this point though, Newton hasn’t shown quite enough to be considered among the league’s elite signal-callers, particularly when so much of his value hinges on his running ability. Of course, one could argue that Cutler and Romo shouldn’t be grouped with the NFL’s elite QBs either, which is a fair point. But based on the way the tide seems to have shifted following Kaepernick’s and Dalton’s signings, it could be an uphill battle for Newton to avoid agreeing to a contract with similar parameters.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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