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Poll: Which Non-First Place Team Could Still Win Its Division?

November 15th, 2018 at 5:59pm CST by Dallas Robinson

With 10 weeks of NFL action in the books, the playoff picture is beginning to crystallize, but there are certainly still divisions up for grabs. There are eight non-first place teams which still have at least a 10% chance to win their respective division, per FiveThirtyEight.com. That cutoff will leave out clubs like the Packers (9%) and the Colts (7%) who still theoretically could take their division, but I think it’s a good glance at where things stand.

Let’s take an overview of each club:

Tennessee Titans (49% chance to win AFC South)

According to FiveThirtyEight, the Titans actually have better odds at taking the AFC South than the Texans, who currently sit in first place in the division. It’s not a huge difference between the two clubs, as Houston has a 43% chance to win the South, but the odds are slightly in Tennessee’s favor. The Titans have looked like an entirely different team over the past three weeks: after averaging only 262 yards of offense from Weeks 1-6, Tennessee has averaged 371 yards per game over their last three contests.

Minnesota Vikings (40% chance to win NFC North)

The Vikings still have to play the division-leading Bears twice, and one of those games will come this Sunday night in a contest that could certainly help decide the NFC North winner. Minnesota could be facing an uphill battle for the rest of the year, however. While the Vikings have faced the NFL’s third-easiest schedule to this point, they’ll go against the league’s fourth-most difficult slate from here on out (per Football Outsiders).

Philadelphia Eagles (26% chance to win NFC East)

Rewind to early August when I posed the following question to PFR readers: Which 2017 first place team is likeliest to miss the postseason in 2018? The Eagles received only 3.2% of the vote, last among the eight 2017 division winners, but they now have only a one-in-four chance of taking the NFC East. It’s easy to dismiss the Redskins’ low-octane offense, but their two-game lead on Philadelphia can’t be ignored. The two teams face each twice over the rest of the season, including a regular season finale that could decide the division.

Dallas Cowboys (20% chance to win NFC East)

Like the Eagles, the Cowboys are also two games behind the Redskins, but Dallas doesn’t have the advantage of playing Washington twice more this year (having already lost to the Redskins in Week 7). The Cowboys are the second-lowest variance team in terms of DVOA through 10 weeks, but they might need some spiked weeks — especially on the offensive side of the ball — if they want to overtake the Redskins and Eagles. The wisdom of sending a first-round pick to the Raiders in exchange for Amari Cooper can be debated, but he’s certainly performed well (11 receptions, 133 yards, one touchdown) through two games in Dallas.

Carolina Panthers (15% chance to win NFC South)

The Saints look like Super Bowl favorites after taking out the previously undefeated Rams in Week 9 before demolishing the Bengals in Week 10, and they very well may be. But the Panthers are only two games behind New Orleans in the standings and still get to face the Saints twice. All that adds up to only a 15% chance of winning the NFC South, but it’s not nothing, especially if Cam Newton continues to play at something close to his 2015 MVP level.

Los Angeles Chargers (13% chance to win AFC West)

Like the Panthers, the Chargers are second in their division to a team (the Chiefs) that’s gotten a ton of publicity…but the Chargers are also one of the of the NFL’s best teams. They rank third overall in DVOA, and they’re one of only two teams — along with the Bears — that boast a top-10 DVOA unit on both sides of the ball. Melvin Gordon is on pace to post 1,840 yards from scrimmage and 19 touchdowns, and Philip Rivers is arguably posting the best season of his career, at least according to passer rating and adjusted net yards per attempt.

Cincinnati Bengals (11% chance to win AFC North)

The Bengals are reeling following a 51-14 loss to the Saints in Week 10, and they responded by making changes to their coaching staff. Defensive coordinator Teryl Austin was fired, clearing the way for head coach Marvin Lewis to take over defensive play-calling, while old friend and ex-Browns head coach Hue Jackson is now in the building, as well. Whether those changes will help fix a defense that’s on pace to allow more yards than any in NFL history is anyone’s guess, but Cincinnati will also have to make hay without star wideout A.J. Green for at least one more game.

So what do you think? Will one of these teams claim their division? Or does a team not listed here — Packers? Colts? Ravens? — have a chance to take home a crown? Vote below, and leave your thoughts in the comment section! (Link for app users).

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