Turnarounds in the NFL often don’t take long. Unlike Major League Baseball, where prospects usually face a minimum promotion time of two years, new NFL players can make an impact during their respective rookie seasons. With more teams embracing the use of free agency and trades as avenues of player acquisition, it’s possible to improve a club year-over-year.
Worst-to-playoffs revamps happen nearly every season, and 2018 was no exception. A year after finishing last in the NFC North, the Bears and new head coach Matt Nagy rebounded to take the division crown. Meanwhile, the Texans and Colts both posted 4-12 records in 2017 before earning a postseason appearance this past season.
So, which last place team from 2018 will make a leap into the playoffs during the upcoming season? Let’s take a look at the candidates:
New York Jets
The Jets are searching for a new general manager after firing Mike Maccagnan, but they should be poised for an improvement on the field as 2018 third overall pick Sam Darnold heads into his sophomore campaign. Gang Green gave Darnold a few more weapons by signing running back Le’Veon Bell and wide receiver Jamison Crowder, but failed to augment an offensive line that ranked dead last in run-blocking and 18th in pass-blocking, per Football Outsiders. While New York could see a jump in their win total, will it be enough to overtake the Patriots?
Cincinnati Bengals
Although the Bengals didn’t make any splash additions during the offseason, they did attempt to address their porous offensive line by drafting Alabama tackle Jonah Williams (which will push incumbent blindside protector Cordy Glenn to guard), and signing ex-Bills guard John Miller. Improving their front five from “horrible” to simply “average” would be a win for the Bengals, especially as quarterback Andy Dalton enters a make-or-break year under new head coach Zac Taylor.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Among the clubs that finished in last place in 2018, the Jaguars have experienced the most recent success: as recently as 2017, Jacksonville finished 10-6 and was a few plays away from making a Super Bowl appearance. The Jaguars retained head coach Doug Marrone after last year’s 5-11 record, but quarterback Blake Bortles was cut, clearing the way for free agent signee Nick Foles. Rookie first-round edge rusher Josh Allen will join a defense that’s bringing back most of its key parts aside from linebacker Telvin Smith, who won’t play in 2019.
Oakland Raiders
The Raiders raised eyebrows by adding controversial locker room presences such as Vontaze Burfict and Richie Incognito this offseason, but they’ve also brought in talent at positions of import, such as wideouts Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams, offensive tackle Trent Brown, and edge rusher Clelin Ferrell. The wisdom of drafting a running back (Josh Jacobs) and box safety (Johnathan Abram) in the first round notwithstanding, Oakland has undoubtedly augmented its roster. Whether the Raiders’ moves will be enough to overtake two of the AFC’s best teams in the Chiefs and Chargers is another question.
New York Giants
The Giants’ offseason has been…interesting. After trading away star pass-catcher Odell Beckham Jr. for pennies on the dollar, general manager Dave Gettleman made a number of questionable decisions in free agency and the draft. Big Blue handed Golden Tate a four-yar $37.5MM deal to replace OBJ, but Tate is best in the slot, a position already spoken for by Sterling Shepard. Gettleman then used the sixth overall selection on quarterback Daniel Jones, a prospect most analysts had pegged as a Day 2 selection, and the No. 17 pick on Clemson’s Dexter Lawrence, a run-stuffing defensive tackle who likely won’t be a full-time player.
Detroit Lions
One of only three last place teams to keep their head coach in place, the Lions actually finished with the highest Pythagorean win total (the number of games a club should win based solely on points scored/allowed) of any team on this list, per FO. Detroit went on a minor spending spree over the past few months, adding three former ex-Patriots: defensive end Trey Flowers, cornerback Justin Coleman, and wide receiver Danny Amendola. Even with regression expected for the Bears, it’s difficult to see the Lions overtaking Chicago, Green Bay, and Minnesota for the division crown.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers ranked as a top-12 offensive team in both expected points and DVOA despite trailing off at the end of season, and now they’re turning over their loaded passing unit to Bruce Arians. Scoring points shouldn’t a problem, so the onus will be on new defensive coordinator Todd Bowles to improve a unit that fell apart in 2018. New additions like Devin White, Shaquil Barrett, and Deone Bucannon will buttress a defensive backfield largely populated by first- and second-year players.
Arizona Cardinals
While they’re not necessarily expected to compete for the postseason in 2019, the Cardinals will certainly be a fascinating club to watch during the upcoming year. New head coach Kliff Kingsbury will bring some version of his Air Raid offense to the NFL, and Heisman winner/No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray will be under leading the attack. Arizona’s draft garnered a wealth of “A” grades across the industry, so the future could be bright for the Cardinals, but they probably don’t have the talent to compete with the rest of the NFC West just yet.
So what do you think? Which of these last place teams is likeliest to earn a postseason berth — either as a division winner or a wild card club — in 2019? Link for app users.
Why not a none of the above? I imagine that would be the winner.
I’m nearly positive that the Jaguars would be a better guess than none of the above.
Yeah it’s a tough one. But I can tell you who it won’t be, and that’s the Giants. What a disgrace they have become. Wasting their first two draft picks when they had two in the Top 20.
The Giants are in the most winnable division too. Their fans have every right to be angry.
Daniel Jones is gonna be good I really believe that. So I would not call him a waste of a pick. However I will agree that the Giants are gonna be bad for at least a couple years
Far and away the Jaguars.
Raiders
Raiders
Without taking into consideration and factoring in their schedule, I would say it’s easily the Jags and Raiders that have the best chance of making the playoffs.
Rejuvenated offense, should also light a fire under their defense, and maintaining drives should allow their defense to not get worn down so easily for the Jags. I still think they’re lacking offensive weapons, but they should have enough to contend.
For the Raiders, their offense should look immensely better this season. Jacobs will bring a tough, hard-nosed rushing attack, and Carr should get better protection through the O-line upgrades and with a significantly improved running game..Plus, Carr will now have some weapons at his disposal, so if they fail, he’s going to get the blame..However, if the Raiders fail, it’ll likely be due to their defense. Even so, I still think the Raiders should have enough defensively to contend as well. Adding Abram actually should help the Raiders defensively quite a bit. He’ll be able to play near the LOS, and wreak havoc sideline to sideline..He’s excellent at dissecting runs and screen plays, and don’t be at all surprised to see Abram in the backfield making plays all throughout the season..I think they should have added a better corner than Mullen, but if he can produce, that’ll help them tremendously. Key’s and Ferrell’s development, and their resulting pass rush, will be the biggest factor for their defense though. So, only time will tell the tale…
Either way, I think the Raiders have done a quality job of putting together a solid, well-rounded roster..
So yeah, for me, the only two teams with even a remote chance are OAK and Jacksonville..I think JAX has the better defense, but I think OAK has the better offense..Both teams have potential on the other side of the ball, but, for what it is worth, I think OAK’s DEF has more potential than JAX OFF..
I honestly don’t think any of them make it but since you don’t give us a none of the above option i guess i would say Jaguars
I think the Cardinals will be content to extend their winning streak against San Francisco to 10 games.
The AFC could be more challenging to move a 2018 last placed team to the playoffs. There are more wildcard possible teams in the AFC The North could have 3 teams vying for a slot and the South is a pick em’ division. The West is probably still Chiefs/Chargers. The Jaguars are the best shot for now.
The NFC in my opinion will have the most turnover in playoff teams from 2018, but not necessarily one from the cellar. None of 2018’s last place teams breed confidence.
Easy answer. Jacksonville Jaguars will be in the playoffs. That defense just needs a game manager at QB. Foles is the answer
The easy answer is the Jaguars, but I think the Lions are underrated too. Stafford isn’t what he used to be but they have a more complete roster around him now.
Their biggest issue is that the other three teams in their division are pretty good too, but none of them are head and shoulders above each other in my opinion.
Bengals are the best answer, but people are clueless about them, so the poll result is to be expected. They still have the core that made the playoffs 5 years in a row. What held them back over the previous couple years was a porous o-line led by epic bust Cedric Ogbuehi (who is now starting for the Jaguars, who lead this poll). They dumped that bust and replaced him with the top lineman in the draft. They have perhaps the best WR tandem in AJ Green/Tyler Boyd. They have the AFC rushing champ in Joe Mixon. Their defense has the pieces to rebound. Dalton should thrive with Zac Taylor replacing defensive dinosaur Marvin Lewis.
Bengals aren’t on anyone’s radar and if they can improve their next to worst time of possession they can surprise some people. Still it usually takes teams making a coaching overhaul a while to gel.
R a i d e r s !