We know, we know…it’s probably a bit early to speculate about the job security of NFL head coaches. However, let’s not forget Bum Phillips‘ famous (supposed) quote: “There’s two kinds of coaches, them that’s fired and them that’s gonna be fired.”
[RELATED: The Longest-Tenured Head Coaches In The NFL]
Even with the start of the NFL season more than a month away, a handful of head coaches already find themselves on the hot seat. Nowadays, it isn’t all that hard to determine which head coaches are at risk of losing their jobs. You can pretty much remove the 12 first- and second-year coaches, and you can definitely remove the successful, long-term coaches (the likes of Bill Belichick, Sean Payton, etc.).
That leaves about 15 coaches with at least two years of tenure but fewer than eight years of tenure (yes, we chose eight to shoehorn Andy Reid into the “definitively safe” section but not the likes of Mike Zimmer). Have those coaches had successful teams? You can remove them from the list. Have those coaches continually shown improvement? You can probably remove them from the list, too. Have those coaches’ teams disappointed or underwhelmed, especially recently? Ding ding ding…those are the coaches on the hot seat.
As we all know, those on the hot seat either redeem themselves and save their jobs or…ultimately get canned. So, that brings us to today’s question: which head coach will be fired first? We used Bovada’s top-three options below, but we’d like to hear your thoughts in the comments.
Matt Nagy, Bears
Following a 12-4 campaign to begin his coaching career, Nagy found his seat getting a bit warm following a disappointing 8-8 campaign in 2019. The former Chiefs offensive coordinator didn’t do a whole lot to inspire confidence in 2020. The team finished 8-8 for a second-straight season, and the former QB whisperer found his passing offense ranking in the bottom-half of the NFL in most categories.
The Bears finally bailed on Mitchell Trubisky this past offseason, and they added a pair of QBs to replace him: veteran Andy Dalton and first-round pick Justin Fields. With a solid defense that’s in win-now mode, Nagy will have to get something out of one of these signal-callers if he hopes to retain his job. Considering Dalton’s recent play and Fields’ inexperience, things are looking bleak.
Zac Taylor, Bengals
It’s easy to put an asterisk on the Bengals’ 2020 campaign following the season-ending injury to Joe Burrow, but there’s no denying that Taylor’s staff has now collected an ugly 6-25-1 record through two seasons. There’s really nowhere to go but up for the head coach, but even if the Bengals improve their record in 2021, the team would still have to pass the smell test. Specifically, we should expect the offensive guru to guide Burrow and the rest of the offense to at least an above-average performance, and it’d be encouraging if the defense was able to show some progress after finishing as one of the worst units in the league in 2020.
As we saw with Marvin Lewis, the Bengals organization values continuity. It’s hard to envision the team not giving Taylor at least another full season, but if the team is unable to show any improvement over 2020, then the 38-year-old could find himself without a job.
Vic Fangio, Broncos
There are a number of things working against Fangio and his future in Denver. For starters, he hasn’t done a whole lot during his two seasons at the helm, leading the team to a 12-20 record. Making it worse, the team took a clear step back in 2020, and with a questionable roster on paper, it’s hard to envision the Broncos getting a whole lot better in 2021.
Next, GM George Paton was only recently hired, so he surely won’t be feeling pressure throughout the 2021 season. However, a disappointing campaign could change things. In that hypothetical, you can bet the executive would be looking to right the ship immediately, and that would probably start with the head coach.
The final factor is the uncertain status of Broncos ownership. If the team is ultimately sold, the new owners would presumably be looking to clean house, at least from an on-field perspective. That means Fangio would surely be handed his walking papers, even if the team did show some progress in 2021.
For reference, the next four head coaches listed by Bovada are Jon Gruden (Raiders), Mike Zimmer (Vikings), Matt LaFleur (Packers), and Mike McCarthy (Cowboys). Let us know what you think in the comments below!
Gruden, Lafleur, or McCarthy they won’t be. Haha
Gruden is under contract for 7 more years….
That was such a knuckleheaded contract to give out.
McCarthy will be fired first
I agree.
JJ give his head coaches a long leash.
JG got 10yrs. Unless he feels that Moore can take on the HC position.
Nagys job is safe as heck for this year and next with the selection of fields, he can let Dalton start the season and even if he’s pathetic just say they are developing fields, Justin Fields strictly being drafted by the bears alone saved countless jobs for 730 days at least
Um no
Naw, Nagy is far from safe. If they don’t make serious progress this season, both Nagy and Pace will be out. They already used up their second chances when ownership kept them both after last year..
No chance MLF is fired. This Rodgers debacle is not on him.
This is a tough call because expectations are low for the teams mentioned. I don’t recall the Bears ever firing a HC while the season was underway and going to an interim guy. None of the teams have an OC or DC that would be an obvious interim replacement. I guess I would vote for McCarthy but given how long Jerry Jones stuck with Garrett he might just give Mike a pass as well.
I have to say it would be McCarthy now if the Beats get off to a bad start say 1-6 and and continue does not play much better and say the Bears finish with a 5-12 record we most likely would have to wait til the end of the season to find out if Nagy will be fired the Bears have a habit of waiting till the end of the season regress how they are playing
I think Zimmer is on thin ice.
Wilf’s have put a lot of dough into the team.
Stadium, Practice Facilities, Player Payroll, etc.
Light return on the investment thus far.
Ziggy & family have got to be getting impatient…..
Spielman is the bigger problem but Zimmer could easily be made the fall guy. Team morale really seemed to go for a dump when Diggs was traded.
Nagy—but thats probably more wishful thinking than reality
David Culley is a place holder.
McCarthy would go first, but knowing the Cowboys, Jerry wolnt do that
Why would he be fired? He did a decent job last season. Even with DP,TS & LC out. Then he had Nolan stinking it up as DC.
Because Nolan was essentially the fall guy for McCarthy’s decision to switch to a 3-4 for no good reason. The Cowboys had a pretty good defense in the opposite scheme with opposite personnel; McCarthy brought in Nolan to transition to his preferred defense for no other reason than that he preferred it. That was biggest failure as HC; considering that Moore is calling plays and McCarthy is not a defensive coach, there wasn’t much else to do but to micromanage a side of the ball that he had no business interfering with. The defense actually improved midway through the year, but it’s personnel even now are woefully mismatched for that scheme.
Lamcaster82 a decent job? Did you even watch a game last year??
I want the answer to be Gruden. Please let it be Gruden.
Fangio’s seat is not as hot as many people assume. His accomplishment in managing that defense-with as many starters as it lost and how pitifully the offense performed-was incredible last year. All that aside, there is one telling feature this offseason had in regards to measuring Denver’s confidence in Fangio (at least in the short term): the investment in defense. Paton gave Fangio (or the defense) what he wanted on several levels: he drafted Surtain in the first, signed corners in free agency, and retained pricey defensive starters who have missed significant time in the last two years (Callahan and Miller).
I think Denver realizes that the offense is what is holding them back, and they do not hold Fangio completely responsible for that. Denver has spent the offseason talking about their quarterback, not their defense, which says something about where their strategic priorities are.
I would say that McCarthy’s seat is hotter than it seems, as well as Kingsbury. The latter is my real surprise pick in that regard. Taylor has at least a year with a healthy Burrow and reinforcements offensively. Nagy, if this year doesn’t go well, will not get to develop Fields despite just selecting him.
Defense still wins championships so I’d rather have a guy like Fangio or Rivera over some of these sizzle but no steak offensive hot shots like Kingsbury.
In season coaching changes rarely make a difference if a team is taking a nose dive. I think the teams mentioned here will simply wait until the season is over when the pool of replacement candidates will be much larger.
Kliff Kingsbury (Cardinals)
I say Joe Judge in NY. He has a poor record. Nagy is at worst .500. Zack Taylor should be the first but the Bengals ownership doesn’t like to pay fired coaches. Gruden would be #2 on my list but Mark Davis is caught up in the shiny object affect because Gruden is just not that good but he blows a WHOLE lot of smoke. Zimmer is safe as long as the Vikings win 10+ games. McCartney has only this year to win 9+ games, Jerry Jones won’t be as loyal to any coaches as he was to Jason Garrett. Fangio is safe if he wins 8+ games. In retrospect Fangio will probably be 2nd to actually go, they have a lot of dysfunction in Denver. Just one man’s opinion, we’ll see.
Gettleman is on very shaky ground so the last thing he would want is a backlash for throwing Joe Judge under the bus so soon after hiring him.
green bay’s gm and head coach duo.
I’d go against the grain and say Pete Carroll, maybe not fired, but mutual separation to go back to college or Kyle Shanahan.
Only passed for 300 times, two times the entire season. You only gained 400 yards in a game, two times the entire season. The guru in Matt Naggy, there’s no “ru” in that guru. He’s an illusion, false-advertising, “comes from the Kansas City regime” “he’s a play-caller” they just never manifested. You’re suppose to be one of the most productive teams. Bears have been one of the worst teams in goaline & short yardage situations since you’ve been there like how is this going to get better? Play Fields, let Fields help you. Offensive line has no power and has no toughness.
And the biggest secret going around the NFL is: the Bears are still good on defense and that’s not the case. Last year they got 0 production out of Robert Quinn, he hit the QB 6 times in 15 games and he was supposed to be the “sack guy” (only records 2 sacks). Khalil Mack hasn’t played well (hit the QB 15 times), Nicks did a better job he hit the QB 21 times and Mack only had 9 sacks all year. And then you take Kyle Fuller out of the secondary. I think it’s going to be really challenging. Ryan Pace has been able to survive one of the biggest blunders in the history of sports and he’s back to do it again.
Other. I think McCarthy is lucky to get a 2nd year.
I am betting on McCarthy being the first to be shown the door, as the Cowboys have delusions of grandeur for 2021 and he failed to show NFL-level coaching ability last year.
My second choice is Mike Zimmer, who was so distracted by outside interests last year that his team looked unprepared and disinterested in a number of games.
Nagy shouldn’t be safe, but as a Bears fan, sadly I think he is. Gruden is safe because of his contract. Matt LaFleur maybe if Rodgers leaves. Fangio makes sense, but I don’t think he’ll be the first. I think it’ll be a good team or coach who drastically underperforms this year and ownership makes a snap reaction. Reich, LaFleur, Pederson, Rivera, Stefanski, Kingsbury, and Zimmer wouldn’t shock me if one of their teams tank. There are some highly volatile owners and fan bases in that group. All except maybe the Eagles, Vikes and maybe Pack should do well this season, so a poor start and bad press conferences could get a coach canned fast.