The NFL now has its first teams eliminated from playoff contention. The Texans and Bears, as they essentially have been doing throughout this season, are playing for next year. Other eliminations will soon follow, as the league’s playoff picture heats up.
Through that lens, the 2023 draft order will become an increasingly more pertinent topic. The 2023 draft will present an interesting subplot near its outset. Traded picks are set to produce early selections for the Seahawks, Lions and Eagles. Each of those picks currently land in the top five, as the teams on the other end of those trades — the Broncos, Rams and Saints — have disappointed, spectacularly so in Los Angeles and Denver’s cases.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2022 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is how the draft order would look entering Week 14:
- Houston Texans: 1-10-1
- Chicago Bears: 3-9
- Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos)
- Detroit Lions (via Rams)
- Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints)
- Carolina Panthers: 4-8
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 4-8
- Arizona Cardinals: 4-8
- Indianapolis Colts: 4-8-1
- Atlanta Falcons: 5-8
- Green Bay Packers: 5-8
- Las Vegas Raiders: 5-7
- Houston Texans (via Browns)
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 5-7
- Detroit Lions: 5-7
- Los Angeles Chargers: 6-6
- New England Patriots: 6-6
- Washington Commanders: 7-5-1
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-6*
- Seattle Seahawks: 7-5*
- Tennessee Titans: 7-5*
- New York Jets: 7-5*
- New York Giants: 7-4-1*
- Denver Broncos (via 49ers through Dolphins)*
- Baltimore Ravens: 8-4*
- Cincinnati Bengals: 8-4*
- Dallas Cowboys: 9-3*
- Kansas City Chiefs: 9-3*
- Minnesota Vikings: 10-2*
- Buffalo Bills: 9-3*
- Philadelphia Eagles: 11-1*
* = Denotes playoff team
The 2023 first round will resemble 2008 and 2016, when the Patriots were docked their Round 1 pick for their respective “gate” scandals. This year’s Dolphins saga never developed “gate” status, but the team lost a 2023 first-round pick and 2024 third-rounder due to the Tom Brady–Sean Payton tampering case. Thus, a 31-pick first round will commence.
While the Broncos, Rams and Browns lost their first-round picks due to trades for quarterbacks, the Saints passed theirs to the Eagles in this year’s pre-draft trade that allowed New Orleans a path toward moving up for Chris Olave. The No. 16 pick which was initially transferred from the Colts to the Eagles in 2021’s Carson Wentz trade was then moved to the Saints, netting Philadelphia a 2023 first-rounder and a 2024 second.
Picks 3-5 looking good for those teams. And Seattle right now is just loving the deal.
Texans need to trade the #1 for multiple picks. Putting a rookie quarterback with the current team would be professional suicide. The team will still be bad in the 2024 draft. Get your quarterback then.
Disagree. They’ve invested enough in the offensive line that it’s not like they’re going to David Carr him. If they see a true franchise QB, they should take one. It’s the most important and most difficult thing to find.
Ooooh, I gotta disagree with you. Look at the long list of failed top 5 QBs. I ask you this: is it likely all of those guys just couldn’t play? How many of those guys went to poorly run franchises, lacking talent and coaching? I believe you’ve got to have a decent situation for a young QB to flourish, and Houston just doesn’t.
I’d trade back if I was in charge of the Texans.
Yeah, look at the Browns for that.. How many Qbs have they drafted in the last 20 years, and how many winning seasons in that time frame?
There’s only 1 franchise qb in this draft. You have to go get him.
Who is it? Trevor Lawrence isn’t the chosen one.
Can’t wait to see what the Hawks do with a Top 5 pick! Hopefully they focus on the Defensive side of things.
I don’t know enough about the QB market outside the top 2-3 guys. I hope the Hawks give Geno a bag AND draft a young QB with their 2nd (1st rd) or 3rd (2nd rd) picks. If this 2023 Hawks Draft class has anywhere near the impact of our 2022 class? Whoa Look out!
I’m thinking they keep trading down – first with Det , then Carolina, then with colts. More draft capital for following draft so they can get the QB from washington no matter what their record is
“I hope the Hawks give Geno a bag”
Based on 12 games of good performance in an offense that is tailored around some of his limitations? I doubt they will do that.
“Laughs in Howie Roseman”
11 looks like a good spot for GB to draft a Guard..or a punter. Could go either way.
Please put numbers next to the selections.
It’ll be interesting to see if the Bears will trade down or hold onto their likely top 2 pick. This is a crucial draft for the franchise – Poles and co. can’t afford to mess this one up.
Trading the 33rd overall pick for Claypool looks rough, but if they land at number 2, that’s a win-win. Either they can take a defensive lynchpin like Anderson or Carter, or they can trade down for a ransom. In an ideal world, they trade down one or two spots, get back into the second round, and still land one of the top guys. For a defensive scheme that needs a strong 3 technique (remember when they tried to give Ogunjobi way, way too much money?), Carter would be a dream fit. Their rookie class has generally worked out very well and they have a ton of cap space coming up. Curious to see what next offseason looks like for them.
Poles just needs to ask himself what Ryan Pace would do…then do the exact opposite.
Im torn on this whole tank (or just flat out lose) to get that pick. On one hand Im curious to see what Poles can do with that pick (as I would like to see the Bears really build this team in the draft). On the other, I really do not want to see Fields go out there and lose every Sunday.. You want to also try to inject some winning into this club, just for keep a positive mindset, and showing that this system the Bears is putting into place produces positive results. Otherwise you can become a really dysfunctional org like Cleveland.