No team has been a more active seller than the Broncos over the past few years. Denver parted with three of its Super Bowl 50 cornerstones — Demaryius Thomas (2018), Emmanuel Sanders (2019) and Von Miller (2021) — and moved Bradley Chubb last year. The team used the Miller and Chubb picks to form the Russell Wilson–Sean Payton partnership.
While Wilson is early in the process of bouncing back from a wildly disappointing Broncos debut season, the team started this one 0-3. Denver’s defense, easily its most reliable unit in the years since Peyton Manning‘s retirement, has taken a massive step back. Since 2000, no defense has produced a worst EPA figure since 2000, The Athletic’s Mike Sando notes (subscription required). Even though the Broncos rallied from 21-point deficit to beat the Bears in Week 4, Vance Joseph‘s defense is under a microscope.
Despite this unexpected freefall defensively, NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport notes the Broncos are not looking to build for the future just yet by becoming an early seller. The team’s status as a true seller figures to hinge on how it performs over the next few weeks. Before the Oct. 31 deadline, the Broncos face the Jets, Packers and will check off both their Chiefs matchups — the second of which, the home tilt — coming two days before the deadline.
The Broncos discussed Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton with teams this offseason, holding out for a first-round pick for Jeudy and a second-rounder for Sutton. No such offers emerged, and the homegrown draftees remain Denver’s top two wideouts. While Marvin Mims has been effective when utilized — to the point the second-rounder is the team’s leading receiver (242 yards) — he has only played 27% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Denver also rosters longtime starters in Justin Simmons and Garett Bolles; both would stand to generate interest. No trade rumors have surfaced around these cornerstones, but if the team struggles this month, players outside of Jeudy and Sutton figure to come up for a team that has shown no hesitation in selling. John Elway dealt Thomas and Sanders, but current GM George Paton was at the wheel when the Miller and Chubb trades transpired.
Wilson’s performance will naturally lead the way in determining if the Broncos want to begin collecting assets for 2024 and beyond. Through four games, the scrutinized QB sits third in the NFL in passer rating, second in touchdown passes (nine) and sixth in yards per attempt (7.7). QBR slots the 2022 trade acquisition 19th, however. While the Wilson-Payton rapport has come up many times as a topic, The Athletic’s Dianna Russini notes the duo are “flourishing” early in their relationship. Wilson has made strides in recovering from a poor fit with Nathaniel Hackett, but if the Broncos’ defense cannot get back on track, the team’s post-deadline nucleus might be worse.
One change that came on defense in Week 4 involved Randy Gregory, whom the team benched in Week 4, as Denver7’s Troy Renck observes. Through four games, Pro Football Focus ranks Gregory as a bottom-10 edge defender. Although Denver’s defense as a whole endured one of the worst showings in NFL history, as the Dolphins became the first team since 1966 to score 70 points, Gregory received some punishment in the wake of the rout. The Broncos benched Gregory despite having Baron Browning on their reserve/PUP list. The team gave Gregory a five-year, $70MM deal in 2022 but saw him miss much of last season due to a knee injury. Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper served as the Broncos’ first-string edges in Chicago.
Counting down the days until Denver fans start wearing bags on their heads. What a disaster…
How many days are you projecting? I say by week 9 it’ll start.
What is Russ worth; a 6th round pick at this point?
Depends. To a lot of teams, he isn’t useful in this state. Talented, accomplished, but hard to adapt to. Hard to gamble on that if you can’t adapt to his playstyle right away.
Wilson can only really run one “system”, but he’s very good at that one system. Basically, you have to run constantly and effectively, have receivers who can anticipate his scrambling to break free on plays, offensive linemen who won’t break off if Wilson does scramble, and not use many timing routes, especially to areas that he can’t see as well (particularly over the middle, particularly the deep middle).
Most of Russ’ “cooking” in Seattle came as a result of his using his legs to make defenses break down in coverage and being on the same page as his receivers when that happens for big gains. Needless to say, that’s too unpredictable for most teams. If Wilson learns Payton’s playbook, and proves that he can adapt to more common NFL concepts, he could be worth more. He still has a great arm, if nothing else. If that happens, though, Denver would have likely finally gotten a return on its investment and would probably keep him.
At the end of the day, though, Wilson’s not worth anything on that contract.
Denver hasn’t replaced the talent that has left the team in recent years to begin with. Paton’s had some hits-Williams, Meinerz, Jeudy, Surtain-but he (and Elway before) have not addressed some of the gaps that have left from players who could have been retained. Chubb I always considered a tad overrated, but he was a defensive leader that was dealt away. Miller was dealt to the Rams for a modest return (good picks in another scenario, but Denver ended up losing by not replacing him). Barrett was a huge loss opportunity-wise. Darby and Callahan’s roles as the second corner/quality depth were not addressed. On the defensive line, Harris and Jones were not replaced.
The Broncos need to be buying, not selling. They are stuck with Wilson for the next two years. There’s not any really any avenue for a rebuild right now. Yes, they desperately need some picks to make it happen, but any talent that they trade for those picks is going to have to be replaced with them. Sutton may be an interesting target for teams, but he’s not getting a Day One pick, and that’s what it would probably take to get a new number one receiver, much less one with a good size/speed ratio like Sutton provides. There’s not much on defense that would provide a starter level pick back, except Surtain, who is a franchise player, and the injured Simmons, who is as well.
The only other player I can see with any value is the often injured Jevonte Williams, who is a cheap rookie that already has a medical history to limit returns. He may be a good piece otherwise. I mean, if there’s a good offer you may take it, but I don’t think that the Broncos can sell enough to get the value needed to replace what goes out the door. Usually you have to go full fire sale to get those types of picks, and as long as they tied to Wilson, Denver might as well try to build on the considerable talent that they have and try to make it match the on-field product, which clearly does not match what they have on paper. The team needs less than than most bad teams roster-wise. The offense needs to learn the playbook so it can stop relying completely on scripted starts to score. The defense just lost the incredible scheme of Fangio/Evero and is going to need some work and some good investment (not Clark/Gregory-good additions). So, there’s work to do, but enough to need to sell the talent. That’s kind of how they got here in the first place, to a degree.
No one looks to be an early seller, but at some point reality sinks in.