Stock Still High For Texas QB Arch Manning

In the first few days following the 2025 NFL Draft, rumors were already abuzz that Texas quarterback Arch Manning was the favorite to follow in his uncles’ footsteps as the future No. 1 overall pick of the event in 2026. Months later, it became clear scouts had fallen out of love with the 2026 crop of passers, after expressing hope for improvement over last year’s.

Several quarterbacks projected to emerge as stars failed to meet expectations early, and Manning was not spared from that group. It seemed as if Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza was the only early name who lived up to the hype, though he was joined by new standout starters Ty Simpson (Alabama) and Dante Moore (Oregon). According to Ralph Vacchiano of FOX Sports, though, Manning’s stock hasn’t dropped nearly as much as you might think. In conversations with three college scouts and two NFL executives, all five evaluators told Vacchiano that Manning would still be a Day 1 pick; three of them said he’d still be QB1.

There are a couple factors at play here. Namely, Manning’s first season wasn’t nearly as bad as people may think, the 21-year-old still oozes talent and potential, and his last name still carries a lot of weight in the NFL.

Manning came into the 2025 season with sky-high expectations, mostly dictated by the media but also fueled by flashes of success shown in backup duty to Dolphins rookie Quinn Ewers. In his redshirt freshman year, a pair of performances in mop up duty against UTSA and as an injury replacement starter against Mississippi State, Manning showed what could be, completing 35 of 43 passes for a completion percentage of 81 and throwing for a combined 548 yards and six touchdowns in the two contests. As a result, many expected an immediate emergence as a Heisman-favorite when Manning was named the new starter.

There’s no way around it, the start of his first season as a starter was rough. Struggles against a tough Ohio State defense were to be expected, but when Manning’s issues carried over into intended cupcake games versus San Jose State and UTEP, cries of overrated began to fall. Eventually, though, Manning started to come around, churning out some strong performances over tougher teams as he got his feet wet. In three late-season games against Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and Arkansas, Manning averaged 354 passing yards while throwing 10 touchdowns to one pick and completing 66 percent of his passes.

Vacchiano’s sources argue that Manning’s first season as a starter is only a disappointment when compared to the impossible expectations that had been set up for him before he was ever even named starter. Taking a step back and viewing the improvements that took place over time, Manning had a season most schools would be perfectly happy with.

In addition, Manning showed that he was learning to use so many of the tools that impressed scouts to begin with. He has a deceptive mobility — 244 rushing yards for eight touchdowns — given his prototypical quarterback frame at 6-foot-4, 220 pounds. There’s still plenty that needs polishing in Manning’s game, but at times this year, he displayed the arm, the legs, the head, and the overall ability to play quarterback at a high level.

NFL scouts and execs will view him the same way, too. Knowing there will be some wrinkles to iron out will do little to discourage some teams from adding a Manning to their franchise. Vacchiano quoted one executive telling him not to “underestimate the power of the Manning name.” He is viewed best as a project, though, not an NFL-ready product. Most seem to think he’d benefit best from sitting a year or two before starting à la Patrick Mahomes or Jordan Love. A dream scenario Vacchiano offered sees Rams head coach Sean McVay parking Manning behind Matthew Stafford in Los Angeles for a year or two.

Manning has until January 14 to declare for the draft as an underclassman, but ultimately, he is still expected to return to school for another year, at least. Some expect him to follow his family’s example and fully exhaust his collegiate eligibility, but others believe it’ll be hard to keep him from coming out in 2027 at the latest. If he were to make the decision to depart from Austin after just one year as the starter, though, he may just fulfill those early expectations of becoming a No. 1 overall pick after all.