Although the Buccaneers won their Week 18 game over the Panthers, the Falcons’ four-game win streak ultimately did them in. Carolina advanced to the wild-card round due to the NFC South’s three-way tiebreaker at 8-9, leaving Tampa Bay out of the bracket for the first time since Jameis Winston‘s 2019 finale.

Reports ahead of the Bucs’ Week 18 game tabbed Todd Bowles as more likely to stay, despite the team’s collapse, and the veteran HC confirmed as much to the Tampa Bay Times’ Rick Stroud. Bowles will be back for a fifth season as Bucs HC. Staff changes, however, are coming.

Bowles, 62, confirmed there will be changes. The prospect of the Bucs having yet another new offensive coordinator is in play, with ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler indicating the team has kicked around the idea of pairing Bowles with a new OC hire and potentially changes on the defensive side.

Josh Grizzard was believed to be on the hot seat closing out his first season as the team’s offensive play-caller. The defensive changes could include a coordinator, but as it stands, that job is vacant. Bowles calls the Bucs’ defensive plays, and the former Super Bowl-winning DC is still highly regarded there.

Bowles signed a through-2028 extension this past offseason, and the prospect of firing a coach with three years left on a contract was believed to factor into the team’s decision. The Bucs slunk from 6-2 to 7-9, failing to win another NFC South title despite the division underwhelming yet again. But Bowles is poised to have at least one more chance. This will make him the first Bucs HC to coach a fifth season since Jon Gruden‘s seven-year tenure.

The Bucs have continued to pour resources into retaining their core, regularly extending and re-signing starters while relying little on outside acquisitions. That strategy limited the Colts for a while, and the team ultimately deviated. The Bucs have enjoyed more success in that area, in part because the Saints-Falcons-Panthers trio has struggled for most of this decade, and Bowles won a playoff game as HC when the Bucs ousted the Eagles in the 2023 wild-card round. But the team has stagnated since, leading to speculation about the HC’s future.

Tampa Bay has employed a different OC in each of Bowles’ first four seasons. They fired Byron Leftwich after the 2022 season, and both Dave Canales and Liam Coen booked head coaching jobs on the back of strong Baker Mayfield seasons. Tampa Bay opted for continuity rather than an outside hire this past offseason, promoting Grizzard to the OC role. The team started strong but ran into a host of injuries. The Bucs played much of the season without wideouts Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan. Bucky Irving also missed a chunk of his second season.

Offensive line issues also hounded the team, with Stroud adding ownership factored these into the decision to retain Bowles. These limitations clearly affected the offense, but the Bucs also lost late-season contests with their optimal skill-position corps available. That will turn up the heat on Grizzard.

The Bucs regressed from third to 21st in total offense from 2024 to ’25 and fourth to 18th in scoring. Grizzard being fired after an injury-plagued season would represent a tough beat, but with Bowles’ seat warming, he may need to make a move to better ensure improvement. A similar offensive cast should return in 2026, though Evans is again out of contract. As is Cade Otton. That could bring challenges for the next Bucs OC or if Grizzard manages to stay on, though the team regularly has shown the ability to re-sign pending FAs.

Bowles has not employed a true DC during his tenure, having moved from that role to his HC position midway through the 2022 offseason. The Bucs, though, did rank 20th in points allowed this season. The team lost four straight to opponents with losing records, bottoming out with a Week 15 loss to the Falcons. If nothing else, Fowler adds defensive staff additions — potentially south of the coordinator level — are being considered.

Staving off firing rumors in the past, Bowles will probably be on one of the league’s hottest seats entering the 2026 season. The defensive-minded leader will be tasked with elevating the Bucs past their place as a second-tier NFC contender, where they have resided since Tom Brady‘s unretirement.

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