Tua Tagovailoa entered the past five Dolphins seasons without a threat to his starting job. If he is to return to Miami — and as it stands, it appears more likely than not he won’t — another starter-caliber quarterback will be in the mix.
New GM Jon-Eric Sullivan assured fans at an event Thursday the team is nearing a decision on Tagovailoa’s Dolphins future. While the team is aiming to trade its longtime starter, a massive dead money bill — and the QB’s shaky play as of late — bring roadblocks.
“I don’t know what the future holds right now, and I told Tua that,” Sullivan said (via the SoFlo Sports Show’s Ashley Dominguez) of a recent conversation with the passer. “What I can tell you is we’re gonna infuse competition into that room, whether Tua’s part of that room or whether he’s not part of that room. We’re getting close to a decision, and when we do, we’re gonna let Tua know whether he’s gonna be part of this or not.”
The most recent report of a trade pursuit indicated the Dolphins will be ready to eat some of the quarterback’s 2026 compensation to facilitate a trade. Considering Tagovailoa is due $54MM guaranteed in 2026, the Dolphins may need to eat a sizable chunk of that money to convince a team to take on the former NFL passing leader. Tagovailoa is due a $39MM base salary; that will be a nonstarter for teams considering his 2025 play.
Coming over from the Packers, Sullivan is believed to have interest in bringing Green Bay backup Malik Willis to Miami. Sullivan has observed Willis up close for two seasons, but he will have company in pursuing the former third-round pick.
Willis has elevated his profile as Jordan Love‘s backup, and while it should not be considered a certainty Willis will be an upgrade on Tagovailoa, a handful of teams are seeking a bridge option. The Browns and Steelers are believed to be two other interested parties. The Cardinals, Jets and Vikings are also in the mix for veteran help. The Colts technically are as well, but it is widely assumed they will re-sign Daniel Jones. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are in the same boat as the Dolphins; they are looking to move Kyler Murray in a trade.
Both Tagovailoa and Murray were extended under previous GMs — Chris Grier and Steve Keim, respectively — and both would tag teams with substantial dead money. If the Dolphins were to trade Tua without taking on any salary, they would be hit with $45.2MM in dead money. That is unrealistic. It would likely take Miami picking up much of the tab, thus inflating that hit. The Broncos designated Russell Wilson as a post-June 1 cut in 2024, allowing them to spread his record-setting dead cap number ($84.6MM) over two years. If the Dolphins traded Tagovailoa before June 1, they would take on all the dead cap in one year. That would hamstring Sullivan in his first offseason, one that is also expected to include a Tyreek Hill post-June 1 release designation.
Dead money caused the Dolphins to wait until after June 1 to trade Jalen Ramsey last year, and they have made some painful post-June 1 designations (Byron Jones, Xavien Howard) in the recent past. A post-June 1 Tagovailoa cut, however, would smash the Wilson dead money mark and leave $99.2MM over the next two years for the Dolphins to handle. Naturally, the new regime is willing to eat money in a trade to avoid that scenario.
If the Dolphins rode out Tagovailoa’s 2026 guarantee, the Sullivan-Jeff Hafley regime could move on easier in 2027. No guaranteed money is on the deal after this coming season. Just more than $31MM in dead money would come Miami’s way in total in a 2027 release scenario, and a post-June 1 designation would bring $40MM in cap savings. The Dolphins could also hope a return to earlier form would generate a trade market come 2027.
Benched before Week 16, Tagovailoa would welcome a fresh start. Zach Wilson is unsigned, but the Dolphins have Quinn Ewers contracted through 2028. Will the ex-Packers power brokers be OK extending this relationship for one more year? New regimes generally are less concerned with dead money on holdover players. It will be interesting to see links between Tagovailoa and other teams emerge. At his best, the left-handed QB would be an upgrade for some. But on his $53.1MM-per-year contract, the Dolphins are potentially staring at another sunk cost from a Grier extension.
The least awful of the many horrific scenarios could just be to keep him for another year. He either wins the job or he holds a clipboard. Even if he’s a healthy scratch each week, they’re still better off financially. This is a multi-year rebuild, so start building other aspects of the team in 2026. It’s not like there aren’t many areas to choose from. Other than running back, they need help everywhere. The financial hit is way too much to just shrug it off as, “he wasn’t our guy, so we’re gonna get rid of him.” They’re not in a position to cut off their nose to spite their face.