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Offseason Outlook: Dallas Cowboys

By | at February 3, 2016 7:22 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Tony Romo, QB: $20,835,000
  2. Tyron Smith, T: $14,000,000
  3. Brandon Carr, CB: $13,817,000
  4. Dez Bryant, WR: $13,000,000
  5. Tyrone Crawford, DT: $8,750,000
  6. Jason Witten, TE: $8,612,000
  7. Orlando Scandrick, CB: $7,782,271
  8. Sean Lee, LB: $5,950,000
  9. Doug Free, T: $5,500,000
  10. Barry Church, S: $4,750,000
  11. Cole Beasley, WR: $3,356,000
  12. Dan Bailey, K: $3,300,000
  13. Zack Martin, G: $2,445,763
  14. Travis Frederick, C: $2,185,918
  15. Darren McFadden, RB: $2,150,000

Notable coaching/front office changes:

  • Defensive staff: Defensive backs coach Jerome Henderson left to become Falcons’ defensive passing game coordinator.

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

Tony RomoThe Cowboys, fresh off an NFC East title and a trip to the Divisional Round of the playoffs, came into 2015 with high expectations. But when Dez Bryant broke his foot in the second half of the team’s Week 1 contest against the Giants, and when Tony Romo fractured his collarbone in Week 2, Dallas’ fate seemed all but sealed, even after the team managed to cobble together a 2-0 record to open the season. Romo would return to the field in Week 11, leading his struggling club to a victory over Miami, but he re-injured his collarbone in Dallas’ Thanksgiving game a few days later, ending his season.

Bryant, meanwhile, returned to the field in Week 8, but the injury sapped some of his usual explosiveness and he was hampered by the mediocre play of the quarterbacks who filled in for Romo. After finishing 2014 among the league’s five most efficient offenses, the Cowboys were the second-worst in 2015, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. They were, however, a slightly better defensive club in 2015 than they were in 2014, but they were still below league average, further proving that as the offense goes, so goes the team.

Nonetheless, the NFC East should again be a wide open division in 2016, and as long as the Cowboys can stay healthy, they should compete for the division crown.

Key Free Agents:

There aren’t a ton of invaluable names on this list, which is good news for Cowboys fans. Morris Claiborne didn’t escape the injury bug in 2015 — his entire career, in fact, has been beset by injury. He has not lived up to the promise that comes with a former sixth overall pick, and he finished last season ranked as the 106th-best corner out of 113 eligible players per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required).

However, there is still some upside there, and Claiborne is probably not as bad as his PFF rating would suggest. And considering the state of the Dallas secondary, “not bad” might be as good as the team can hope for. We heard in late November that the Cowboys planned to move Byron Jones to safety in 2016, which increases the likelihood that Claiborne will stay in Dallas. He would probably not command a great deal of money on the open market, so unless he wants a change of scenery, it seems like a reunion is in the cards.

Greg HardyThe same cannot be said for Greg Hardy, who continued to find his name in the headlines for the wrong reasons even as he was playing out his 2015 season under a fairly lucrative contract from a team willing to take a chance on him. Hardy was not the same player for Dallas that he was for Carolina, but he still had a strong season as a pass rusher, recording six sacks, a forced fumble, and an interception in 12 games and ranking as the league’s 28th-best edge defender out of 110 qualified players, according to PFF. Dallas, whose defense is in desperate need of playmakers, would love to have that production back, but if recent reports are to be believed, the club will try to find that production elsewhere. Hardy, for his part, will probably have to settle for another short-term, incentive-laden contract.

Rolando McClain, on the other hand, could be back. Another player who has struggled to stay out of off-field trouble, McClain was a revelation for Dallas in 2014, but he was suspended for the first four games of 2015. When he returned to the field, McClain was noticeably rusty, but he seemed to get his legs back under him as the season rolled along and played some of his best football down the stretch. Given his history, McClain will not find a big-money deal in free agency, and he could probably be retained for a modest, one- or two-year contract. I would expect Dallas to do what it can to keep McClain in the fold.

Lance Dunbar, one of the candidates to help replace DeMarco Murray in 2015, was put on injured reserve on October 10, but he demonstrated skill as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, catching 21 passes for 215 yards in a little more than three games. If nothing else, Dunbar is a nice option as a change-of-pace back, and his receiving ability could make him a valuable part of the team’s offense moving forward. The Cowboys, though, will certainly need to address their running back situation in some capacity, as the injury-prone and aging Darren McFadden probably can’t be expected to replicate his 2015 performance in 2016. There are some intriguing names both in free agency (Lamar Miller, Matt Forte) and in the draft (Ezekiel Elliott, DeVontae Booker) that could interest the Cowboys.

The team will also look to address the backup quarterback situation, a position that let the Cowboys down in a big way in 2015. They may look to a mid-round QB prospect like Dak Prescott in this year’s draft to serve as a backup and potential successor to Romo.

RFAs Ronald Leary and Jeff Heath will almost certainly receive tenders.

Possible Cap Casualties:Brandon Carr

Brandon Carr is perhaps the biggest name on the roster that could find himself as a cap casualty this offseason. Luckily for him though, he also plays a premium position, one which happens to be among the Cowboys’ bigger weaknesses. He remains, however, a prime restructure candidate, as we will discuss below.

Other potential cap casualties include Doug Free and Barry Church, but the problem is that they are both starters who are valued for their leadership (Church, in fact, is a team captain). Free is seen as the weakest link on an otherwise dominant offensive line, but that does not mean he is a bad player, and there is no way of knowing whether or not Chaz Green, who did not play a down in his rookie season, is a capable replacement.

On the other hand, if the Cowboys do, in fact, move Jones to safety, then they would have a replacement for Church, who performs well as an in-the-box safety but who tends to struggle in coverage. He has just one year remaining on his current contract, and if the team were to cut him, it would save $4.25MM in cap space.

Longtime stalwart Jason Witten could conceivably be a cap casualty, considering he will be 34 when the 2016 regular season opens and given that the Cowboys could create up to $6.5MM in cap space by cutting him. But again, there is no obvious replacement for Witten on the field or in the locker room. He remains one of the most durable players in the game, and despite playing most of the 2015 season with a parade of backup quarterbacks, he still managed to grab 77 passes for over 700 yards and three scores. Assuming Romo returns fully healthy, Witten may have another strong season or two left in him.

Positions Of Need:

As noted above, the Cowboys need to address their running back corps. They would presumably like to bring back Dunbar, and even if they don’t add one of the bigger names in free agency – a luxury they probably would be unable to afford – a mid-round draft selection or second-tier free agent like Alfred Morris could put up good numbers behind Dallas’ talented offensive front.

Dallas will also likely invest a draft pick on a quarterback, especially since the free agent class of quarterbacks as it currently stands will likely be devoid of any meaningful talent after some of the more intriguing names, such as Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Brock Osweiler, re-sign with their current clubs. Johnny Manziel, of course, is believed to have interest in playing for the Cowboys, and so is Robert Griffin III (the assumption is that both players will be cut by their current teams). After Manziel’s latest off-field incident, I would not expect him to wind up in Dallas, but Griffin might be a possibility. RGIII has significant starting experience, but is young enough to still have some upside.

All in all, though, the offense should be in pretty good shape, as long as Romo stays healthy. The bigger concerns will be the defensive side of the ball. The Cowboys need defensive playmakers, and although they are counting on the return of Orlando Scandrick from injury, the secondary remains suspect at best. First-tier free agents like Josh Norman may be out of Dallas’ price range, but even a player like Phillip Adams or Tracy Porter would provide a nice boost.

If Dallas is to make a big splash in free agency, it is likely happen along the defensive line. Whether or not Hardy returns, the Cowboys would still like to fortify their defensive line the same way they strengthened their offensive line. Olivier Vernon, who could reach the open market, might be a realistic option, and the Cowboys will surely monitor whether longtime Dallas tormentor Jason Pierre-Paul re-ups with the Giants or tests the free agent waters. But the Cowboys could use some help at every position in the front seven, especially if McClain were to depart. Potential draft targets that could immediately impact the team in that regard include Alabama’s A’Shawn Robinson and Notre Dame’s Jaylon Smith.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

The Cowboys have been in so-called salary cap hell in recent years, but as Todd Archer of ESPN.com points out,Tyron Smith they should be in decent shape moving into 2016. They still, though, will need to create some cap room to sign their draft picks, retain their own free agents, and to add a couple of impact players from other clubs. Again, it is unlikely that the team will cut Carr, and as Archer observes, it would be problematic to restructure Romo’s or Bryant’s contracts, given Romo’s age and both players’ recent injuries.

That leaves Tyron Smith and Tyrone Crawford as the most likely restructure candidates. The Cowboys can create roughly $7MM in cap space by converting Smith’s $10MM base salary to $1MM and turning the rest into a signing bonus, and when Crawford signed his deal last season, it was set up to be restructured to give the Cowboys more flexibility. The team could also give Carr a completely new deal, which would serve the same purpose. And again, Church is a candidate to be released. Any combination of those maneuvers, along with one or two less dramatic restructures, should give Dallas enough flexibility to accomplish its offseason goals.

Overall Outlook:

All in all, then, the Cowboys appear to be in pretty good shape, and they will enjoy some continuity in the coaching staff, as defensive backs coach Jerome Henderson is the only notable coach to be heading elsewhere (the team is reportedly considering Mike Nolan and Tim Lewis, among others, to replace Henderson).

Romo is not getting any younger, and although his recent injury history is a bit troubling, all signs point to his being ready to go well in advance of the 2016 regular season opener. Dallas will look to add depth behind him, as the team went 1-11 in Romo’s absence in 2015, but it’s not as though many other clubs in the league could lose a starting signal-caller of that caliber for over 12 games and stay afloat. I would expect the Cowboys to sign a veteran like Chad Henne or Matt Moore while adding a prospect like Prescott in the middle rounds of the draft.

Defense has been a problem the last several seasons, and unless the team hits big on a couple of draft picks, it will probably remain so. Any splash signings would certainly come on the defensive side of the ball, with Vernon representing perhaps the most realistic option. But a few lesser-profile acquisitions would make sense, particularly in the secondary. Given the potential value for money, the Cowboys may also want to revisit their stance on Hardy, assuming they can deal with the persistent off-field headache he creates.

If I had to bet on the 2016 NFC East champion today, I’d be very tempted to put my money on Dallas.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

5 comments Dallas Cowboys Offseason Outlook PFR Originals

Offseason Outlook: Tennessee Titans

By | at February 1, 2016 3:52 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Jason McCourty, CB: $8,800,000
  2. Michael Griffin, S: $8,300,000
  3. Brian Orakpo, OLB: $8,250,000
  4. Jurrell Casey, DE: $8,120,000
  5. Kendall Wright, WR: $7,320,000
  6. Derrick Morgan, OLB: $6,312,500
  7. Da’Norris Searcy, S: $6,312,500
  8. Perrish Cox, CB: $5,833,333
  9. Marcus Mariota, QB: $5,503,176
  10. Delanie Walker, TE: $5,275,000
  11. Harry Douglas, WR: $4,483,333
  12. Wesley Woodyard, ILB: $4,250,000
  13. Andy Levitre, G: $4,200,000 (dead money)
  14. Chance Warmack, G: $3,871,205
  15. Ropati Pitoitua, DE: $3,803,125

Notable coaching/front office changes:

Draft:

  • No. 1 overall pick
  • Acquired sixth-round pick from Falcons in deal for G Andy Levitre.

Other:

Overview:

After reportedly turning down multiple offers from the Eagles in exchange for the No. 2 overall pick in last year’s draft, the Titans had to be happy they did so, as they player selected at that slot, quarterback Marcus Mariota, looks like the club’s franchise signal-caller. But Mariota’s play wasn’t enough to save the job of head coach Ken Whisenhunt, who was fired after less than two years with the team.Mike Mularkey (Vertical)

Tennessee posted a 2-7 record under interim head coach Mike Mularkey, and its 3-13 overall mark means it owns the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft. The man making the decision on draft day will be new general manager Jon Robinson, hired away from the Patriots after a long search process. His first move as GM was to install Mularkey as the full-time head coach, inking him to a three-year deal.

The Titans opted for continuity on their coaching staff, but for a club that’s finished a combined 5-27 over the past two seasons, settling for more of the same isn’t going to be an option going forward, at least from a roster standpoint. Some observers have argued that Tennessee possesses the worst 53-man roster in the league, so Robinson, Mularkey, & Co. will have their work cut out for them as they aim to overhaul the club’s personnel in the coming months.

Key Free Agents:

Unsurprisingly, for a club that finished 3-13, there aren’t a ton of impending free agents on the Titans’ roster who must be retained. In fact, it could be argued that none of the free agents listed above are locks to be re-signed, at least based on their 2015 performance.

Among the Titans’ offensive free agents, right tackle Byron Bell was the most oft-used contributor, as he played on 99% of Tennessee’s offensive snaps. Bell, 27, isn’t a star by any means, and his (below-average) time spent protecting Cam Newton‘s blindside in Carolina might affect his value around the NFL. But the Titans’ offensive line was one of the worst in 2015 (No. 32 in pass protection per Football Outsiders’ metrics), so the club can use any modicum of talent it can get. Bell has the ability to play both tackle and guard, and isn’t expected to cost much, so he could be brought back on short-term deal.Byron Bell (Vertical)

29-year-old Jamon Meredith is very similar to Bell in that he can play tackle and guard, but simply put, he’s just not as talented as Bell. Tennessee needs to get younger up front, and if they do decide to keep a veteran swing tackle/guard, they should probably opt for Bell, making Meredith redundant. The Titans were Meredith’s ninth NFL stop, and could be his last.

Guard/center Joe Looney does have youth on his side — the former 49er is just 25 years old — but he probably doesn’t have a role on the Titans going forward. Although he started six games last season, Chance Warmack and Quinton Spain figure to open the 2016 season at guard, with Jeremiah Poutasi backing up both spots. At best, Looney would be the club’s fourth option.

On the defensive side of the ball, cornerback Coty Sensabaugh saw the most action of any Tennessee free agent, playing on 95% of the team’s defensive snaps. Miscast as a No. 1 corner in the absence of Jason McCourty, Sensabaugh struggled mightily, grading as league’s No. 89 corner, among 113 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus. The 27-year-old has experience, to be sure, but at this point, the Titans can only be comfortable retaining Sensabaugh as a depth piece.

Elsewhere on defense, linebacker Zach Brown probably has the strongest argument of any Titans free agent to be re-signed. A former second-round pick, Brown missed the entire 2014 season after tearing his pectoral muscle in Week 1, but rebounded in 2015, staying healthy for the duration of the year, starting five games, and playing on nearly half of the team’s snaps. Still, with Avery Williamson and Wesley Woodyard manning the middle in Dick LeBeau‘s 3-4 defense, Brown can probably find a larger role elsewhere.

Along the defensive line, the Titans have two veterans — Al Woods and Sammie Lee Hill — heading for free agency. Both contributed last season (34% snap percentage for Woods, 18% for Hill), but both are also closing in on 30 years old. On a team that needs an infusion of youth, defensive line is a solid place to start, because the club can set up a rotation of young talent. Neither Woods nor Hill figure to be retained.

Possible Cap Casualties:

Michael Griffin has been a solid force in the Titans’ secondary for a long time, but at 31 years old, it’s probably time for the club to move on. Griffin finished as just the 60th-best safety in the league last season, among 88 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus, and he’s set to count $8.3MM against the cap in the final year of his deal. Cutting him would save Tennessee $6.5MM.Michael Griffin (Vertical)

Elsewhere in the defensive backfield, Jason McCourty is also a candidate for release, as the Titans could save $7MM by releasing the 28-year-old. Underrated for much of his career, McCourty played in just four games in 2015 as he dealt with injury. The team could ask him to rework his contract and lower his cap charge, but if he balks, they might have no other option but to keep him. As noted below, the Titans’ secondary is so porous that hoping for a rebound season from McCourty might be worth the (expensive) risk. If he is cut, the Patriots might have interest, as they reportedly considered dealing for him near the trade deadline.

Defensive lineman Ropati Pitoitua played only 31 defensive snaps during the entirety of last season, so as outside observers, we can take that as a clear indication of how Tennessee’s coaching staff feels about him. Despite the Titans’ need for depth along their defensive line, there’s no way the 30-year-old Pitoitua is coming back with his 2016 cap charge of about $3.1MM.

On offense, wide receiver Harry Douglas and tight end Anthony Fasano both look like potential cap casualties, but I’d argue that neither is a foregone conclusion. Douglas knows new offensive coordinator Terry Robiskie from their Atlanta days, so while Douglas is due a a $4.48MM cap charge, he might stick around due to his knowledge of the offensive system. Fasano isn’t quite as expensive (about $3.2MM), and he’s an excellent run blocker. Tennessee needs to establish the run in order to help quarterback Marcus Mariota, so I could see Fasano being retained.

Running back Dexter McCluster had a nice season in 2016, but a third-down back isn’t worth $3.65MM. I expect the Titans to either try to lower his base salary or release him.

Positions Of Need:

The most pressing area of need on the Titans’ roster is offensive line, as the front five gave up a league-leading 54 sacks and finished last in adjusted sack rate. Outside of left tackle Taylor Lewan, Tennessee could arguably seek upgrades at every other position along the line, but since that that’s unlikely, we’ll start with the most urgent area: right tackle.

As noted above, Byron Bell isn’t the answer as a starting right tackle, but luckily, the upcoming free agent market is flush with tackles. Mitchell Schwartz, Andre Smith, Bobby Massie, and Joe Barksdale top the available right tackles, while Russell Okung, Cordy Glenn, and Kelechi Osemele (who could help at a number of positions) are left tackle options. (If the Titans did sign an Okung or Glenn, for example, I’d guess that they’d shift Lewan to the right side.) Via the draft, the club could also pick up Ole Miss’ Laremy Tunsil with the No. 1 pick, or if they trade down, someone like Notre Dame’s Ronnie Stanley.

The Titans could use an upgrade at center, but there aren’t many free agent options (unless Alex Mack opts out of his Browns contract), so the team will probably stick with some combination of Brian Schwenke and Andy Gallik for the time being. At guard, former first round pick Chance Warmack will likely get another chance to start on the right side, but left guard could be an area where improvement is needed. Alex Boone, Amini Silatolu, and Jeff Allen are a few impending free agents that could make sense for the Titans.

If Tennessee is able to bring in some talent to better protect Marcus Mariota, the club might also find him more weapons at the skill positions. The Titans’ No. 1 receiver in 2015 was tight end Delanie Walker, so it’s clear that the Titans need other options besides Kendall Wright, Dorial Green-Beckham, and Justin Hunter.

Again, youth should be a primary consideration for the Titans, so pass-catchers like Marvin Jones, Rueben Randle, or Brian Quick could be of interest. The Dolphins’ Rishard Matthews might also make sense, but I wonder if he’s too similar to Wright, as both are possession-type receivers. While he’s not certainly not young, Roddy White would be a candidate to follow offensive coordinator Terry Robiskie to Tennessee if he’s cut by the Falcons.

The Titans’ running game was putrid last season — 32nd in DVOA — but I’m not sure I’d invest any money (or draft capital) on a running back if I were Tennessee. Improving the offensive line should help matters immensely, so the club could probably just use a rotation of Antonio Andrews and David Cobb — and take a final look at former second-rounder Bishop Sankey — instead of bringing in new blood.

On defense, Tennessee can afford to revamp much of its secondary, and the first step might be spending big on a No. 1 corner. The Titans did give a large contract to Perrish Cox last offseason, and given how that’s worked out so far, they might be reticent to do so again. Nonetheless, there are so many high-quality options available that I think the club needs to bite the bullet and use some its $40MM+ in cap space on a new cornerback. I’d target one of Sean Smith, Janoris Jenkins, and Trumaine Johnson, each of whom finished inside the top 30 of Pro Football Focus’ CB rankings. If none of those three bite (or even if one does), the Titans should also take a long look at Casey Hayward, who would shut down opposing teams’ slot receiver. At the lower end of the market, Prince Amukamara might have to take a discounted deal given that he missed a significant portion of the season with injury.

Safety could also be an area of need, especially if the Titans release Michael Griffin. Like cornerback, safety has a number of intriguing free agent options available. George Iloka makes a lot of sense, as he’s a young, ball-hawking safety capable of manning center field while Da’Norris Searcy plays closer to the action. Rodney McLeod would be my second choice, but if Tennessee wants a veteran in the back end, Eric Weddle and Reggie Nelson are also on the market.

The Titans could add depth to both their defensive line and their linebacking unit, but those are positions they can target in the draft, rather than exhausting their cap space on high-end deals.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Delanie Walker turned into the Titans’ No. 1 receiving threat last season, and his contract expires after the 2016 season. The club would obviously like to keep him around, but with his recent track record, he’s going to ask for $7MM+ per season. Walker is already 31 years old, so Tennessee might be better off playing out the string.Kendall Wright (Vertical)

On the other hand, receiver Kendall Wright is the type of player the Titans should look into extending right now. He’s still only 26, and coming off a down season riddled with injuries, meaning he shouldn’t break the bank — and he’s probably not the type of pass-catcher who would secure a large deal even if he does hit the open market. Tennessee would be smart to lock up Wright now, and hope for a big season between him and Marcus Mariota in 2016.

While Wright will play under a fifth-year option in 2016, the Titans have to make a fifth-year option decision on guard Chance Warmack for 2017. Warmack has been thoroughly uninspiring to this point in his career, but because he was a top-10 pick, his fifth-year option is likely to going be worth $11MM+. The Titans are unlikely to risk that type of money on Warmack, even though it’s guaranteed for injury only.

Overall Outlook:

The AFC South is a perennially winnable division, but with the Texans looking like they’re just a quarterback away from being solid contenders, Andrew Luck returning to help the Colts, and the Jaguars expected to take another leap, the Titans might be stuck in fourth place again in 2016. There’s no question that Tennessee is in the middle of a rebuild, but a smart offseason will help ensure that it’s not a perpetual remaking.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

3 comments Offseason Outlook PFR Originals Tennessee Titans

Longest-Tenured Head Coaches In The NFL

By | at January 26, 2016 9:44 am

The NFL is a league of relative parity, one where a perennial contender can bottom out practically overnight and a team expected to finish at the bottom of its division can win it. As such, it’s probably not a surprise that NFL head coaches’ jobs are rarely safe, with most coaches around the league just one or two underachieving seasons away from being replaced.

Of course, there are exceptions to that rule, as is the case in New England, where Bill Belichick just completed his 16th season as head coach of the Patriots. However, while there are several long-tenured coaches across the NFL, most men in the position are relative newcomers. Over a third of the league’s 32 coaches have coached no more than one season with their respective teams, and only 11 have been with their current teams for more than three years.

A coach like Belichick has such a proven track record that a poor 2016 season wouldn’t jeopardize his position. But as is the case every year, there are likely several names on the list below who won’t still have their jobs by next January. Even longer-tenured head coaches aren’t always safe — Tom Coughlin had been with the Giants since 2004, placing him third on this list, before the two sides parted ways earlier this month.

Here’s the list of the current head coaches in the NFL, ordered by tenure, along with the month and year in which they assumed the role:

  1. Bill Belichick (New England Patriots): January 27, 2000
  2. Marvin Lewis (Cincinnati Bengals): January 14, 2003
  3. Mike McCarthy (Green Bay Packers): January 12, 2006
  4. Sean Payton (New Orleans Saints): January 18, 2006
  5. Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers): January 22, 2007
  6. John Harbaugh (Baltimore Ravens): January 19, 2008
  7. Pete Carroll (Seattle Seahawks): January 9, 2010
  8. Jason Garrett (Dallas Cowboys): November 8, 2010 (interim; permanent since January 2011)
  9. Ron Rivera (Carolina Panthers): January 11, 2011
  10. Jeff Fisher (Los Angeles Rams): January 13, 2012
  11. Chuck Pagano (Indianapolis Colts): January 25, 2012
  12. Andy Reid (Kansas City Chiefs): January 4, 2013
  13. Mike McCoy (San Diego Chargers): January 15, 2013
  14. Bruce Arians (Arizona Cardinals): January 17, 2013
  15. Gus Bradley (Jacksonville Jaguars): January 17, 2013
  16. Bill O’Brien (Houston Texans): January 2, 2014
  17. Jay Gruden (Washington): January 9, 2014
  18. Jim Caldwell (Detroit Lions): January 14, 2014
  19. Mike Zimmer (Minnesota Vikings): January 15, 2014
  20. Rex Ryan (Buffalo Bills): January 12, 2015
  21. Todd Bowles (New York Jets): January 14, 2015
  22. Jack Del Rio (Oakland Raiders): January 15, 2015
  23. John Fox (Chicago Bears): January 16, 2015
  24. Gary Kubiak (Denver Broncos): January 19, 2015
  25. Dan Quinn (Atlanta Falcons): February 2, 2015
  26. Mike Mularkey (Tennessee Titans): November 3, 2015 (interim; permanent since January 2016)
  27. Adam Gase (Miami Dolphins): January 9, 2016
  28. Hue Jackson (Cleveland Browns): January 13, 2016
  29. Chip Kelly (San Francisco 49ers): January 14, 2016
  30. Dirk Koetter (Tampa Bay Buccaneers): January 15, 2016
  31. Ben McAdoo (New York Giants): January 15, 2016
  32. Doug Pederson (Philadelphia Eagles): January 18, 2016
3 comments PFR Originals

Latest On Offensive/Defensive Coordinator Searches

By | at January 25, 2016 8:53 am

A year ago, 12 NFL teams made changes at their defensive coordinator position, while nearly half the league named a new offensive coordinator. This time around, it doesn’t appear there will be quite as much turnover around the league. However, plenty of clubs have announced changes at offensive and defensive coordinator since the regular season ended.

While many teams have finalized their coordinator changes, we’re still waiting for official announcements on a few of those moves. And in at least one case, we continue to wait on a team to make a decision on who to hire as its defensive coordinator. Here’s a round-up of the vacancies that remain up in the air to some extent:

Offensive coordinators:

The Browns, Rams, and Giants are the teams currently without an official offensive coordinator on their respective staffs, but barring any surprises, it’s clear which direction those teams are heading. Hue Jackson has added several offensive assistants to his coaching staff, but isn’t expected to name an actual offensive coordinator, since he’ll handle play-calling duties in Cleveland.

Meanwhile, the Rams have interviewed some offensive coordinator candidates, but it seems they’ll keep interim OC Rob Boras in that role, perhaps adding a passing-game coordinator to their staff. As for the Giants, we heard when Ben McAdoo was hired that he was expected to promote quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan to offensive coordinator, and there have been no indications over the last week and a half that he has changed his mind.

Defensive coordinators:

The 49ers appear to be the only team making a change at offensive or defensive coordinator that hasn’t decided yet who that new coordinator will be, so perhaps the lack of competition means that the club will be patient in making the decision.

San Francisco reportedly offered Mike Vrabel the team’s defensive coordinator job, which Vrabel turned down. The Niners are now said to be considering Ravens linebackers coach Don Martindale, along with their own LBs coach, Jason Tarver. Those aren’t the only candidates though — Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets that former Browns DC Jim O’Neil recently interviewed for the job.

The only other DC job with any measure of uncertainty is in New Orleans, where a report earlier this month indicated that Dennis Allen would be retained as the Saints DC after taking over for Rob Ryan during the 2015 season. The team hasn’t formally confirmed that, but there have also been no reports of the Saints looking for someone else or interviewing candidates, so it looks like Allen is safe.

For the full list of OC/DC changes that have been confirmed, be sure to check out our tracker.

2 comments PFR Originals

PFR Originals: 1/10/16 – 1/17/16

By | at January 17, 2016 4:13 pm

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

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2016 Free Agent Power Rankings

By | at January 16, 2016 10:00 pm

In the four weeks since the first edition of our Free Agent Power Rankings, two players listed (albeit, as honorable mentions) have inked extensions, as defensive end Derek Wolfe agreed to a four-year, $36.75MM pact with the Broncos, while fellow defensive end Mike Daniels signed a four-year, $42MM deal with the Packers. There’s still an impressive crop of 2016 free agents heading for the open market, however, so let’s check in on the status of the top unrestricted free agents, ranked by projected guaranteed money.

Dec 6, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; Denver Broncos outside linebacker Von Miller (58) defends during the second half of the game against the San Diego Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium. Denver won 17-3. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

1. Von Miller, LB: Miller did nothing over the final four weeks of the season to lose his top spot, picking up two sacks (to finish the year with 11) while being named both a first-team All Pro and and Pro Bowler. Nothing has changed regarding his contract expectations, but the Broncos’ quarterback situation could have an effect on Miller’s status. Denver probably won’t have to worry about using the franchise tag on Brock Osweiler now that he’s lost his starting job, meaning the tag will be in play for Miller.

2. Alshon Jeffery, WR: Jeffery missed two of the season’s final four games, and was ultimately placed on injured reserve prior to Week 17. He only played in nine games on the year, but it’s hard to think that his nagging injuries will affect his free agent stock, as most teams will likely assume he’ll be at full health by next season. And Jeffery was productive when he played, averaging nearly 90 yards per game, and the Bears are open to an extension. Jeffery doesn’t sound as amenable to such an offer, however, so the threat of the franchise tag looms.

3. Kirk Cousins, QB: Perhaps no player in the league did more over the last four weeks of the regular season to help their stock than Cousins, who completed 74% of his passes for nearly 1,200 yards, while posting a 12:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio to go along with a 134.0 quarterback rating. Washington has made it clear that it will retain Cousins one way or another, and they’ve indicated that a long-term extension is the preferred option. Just 27 years old and having shown he can serve as a franchise QB, Cousins could ask for the Ryan Tannehill contract ($77MM total, $21.5MM guaranteed) — or more.

4. Kelechi Osemele, G/T: Osemele moves up from sixth to fourth primarily due to the Ravens’ decision to play him at left tackle for the final three games of the season. Already an outstanding guard, the ability to handle tackle only increases Osemele’s value, and Baltimore agrees, as a report last month indicated that the club would be willing to pay up for a quality left tackle (whereas they probably couldn’t justify retaining Osemele as a guard given that they’ve already extended Marshal Yanda). Osemele himself sounds optimistic about his chances to stay, noting that he had a positive end-of-the-year conversation with GM Ozzie Newsome.

5. Josh Norman, CB: Compared to Norman’s outstanding first three-quarters of the regular season, it’s difficult to call his final four games anything other than a disappointment. He was still a solid corner, to be sure, but he wasn’t the top-notch standout he had been during Weeks 1-13. For example, when I listed Norman on the first edition of these rankings, he graded as the league’s No. 1 corner, per Pro Football Focus — but he finished the season at No. 13, indicating a precipitous dropoff. At 28, he’s a little older than a typical first-time free agent, so he might need to set his sights a little lower than the Richard Sherman/Patrick Peterson territory.

6. Muhammad Wilkerson, DE: Wilkerson suffered an unfortunate injury in Week 17, breaking his leg in a loss against the Bills that prevented the Jets from earning a playoff berth. He should be able to fully recover by the start of the regular season, but there is a chance that he’ll miss some training camp activity. New York has expressed an interest in re-signing Wilkerson, but with a defensive line already chock full of talent, the club’s best route might be assigning him the franchise tag and then attempting to trade him, a possibility that has been floated.

7. Sam Bradford, QB: Bradford’s first season in Philadelphia is a little hard to value production-wise. He ranked 11th in completion percentage, 18th in passing yards, 22nd in touchdowns, and 26th in quarterback rating. Pro Football Focus graded him as the 11th-best QB, but he ranked just 26th in Football Outsiders’ DYAR (a metric that grades performance against replacement level). Bradford didn’t put up the type of numbers that some thought he might in Chip Kelly‘s offense, but the fact remains that QBs get paid. With so many teams looking for mere competency at the position, Bradford will earn a nice contract.

8. Cordy Glenn, T: Recently-extended Bills GM Doug Whaley said last week that re-signing both Glenn and fellow offensive lineman Richie Incognito would be a “major point of emphasis” this offseason. While Incognito should only require a short-term deal, Glenn will want both a longer contract and more money. The 26-year-old Glenn was outstanding this season (PFF’s No. 10 tackle) and is nothing if not durable — he’s only missed three games in his career, all during his rookie season.

9. Russell Okung, T: Okung has name value after being a former top-10 pick, but his play has continued to deteriorate (he slid all the way to No. 32 among tackles per PFF).Okung will probably point to the extensions signed by Trent Williams and Tyron Smith as he negotiates his next deal, but the fact is that he’s not that caliber of player. I wonder if he might get a little bump simply by being a part of successful team in Seattle, but I predict he’ll come up short of his contractual target.

10. Eric Berry, S: Berry has moved down a few spots since the previous edition of our rankings, but that’s not because of his production. Safeties just don’t get paid like other positions included here do, and while Berry could certainly hit the $9MM/year mark, his guarantees likely won’t match what the quarterbacks, tackles, pass-rushers, corners, and receivers earn. Still, it should be all good news for Berry this offseason, and he’s certainly the favorite for Comeback Player of the Year.

Dropped out: Brock Osweiler, QB.

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2016 Head Coaching Candidate Review

By | at January 16, 2016 6:39 pm

The 2016 NFL head coaching hiring cycle is now complete following the Titans’ promotion of interim HC Mike Mularkey to the full-time job. Seven new head coaches were named, but as our head coaching search tracker shows, many more candidates were a part of interview processes around the league. Let’s take a look at some of those coaches who didn’t land a job this year (but who could certainly be candidates again at this time next season):Teryl Austin (vertical)

  • Teryl Austin – Lions DC: Like he was in 2015, Austin was among the most popular candidates on the interview circuit, as he was scheduled to interview for five of the seven vacancies (Browns, Dolphins, Eagles, Giants, and Titans). Instead, he’ll return to Detroit under head coach Jim Caldwell, who will remain with the club for as least one more season. Austin, whose defenses have finished in the top half of the league in terms of DVOA in each of the past two years, should be a viable head coaching candidate again in 2017.
  • Tom Coughlin – former Giants HC: After resigning in New York, Coughlin didn’t opt for retirement, instead interviewing for both the 49ers and Eagles head coaching jobs. In fact, the Philadelphia gig was likely his for the taking, but Coughlin withdrew his name after realizing that most of his former assistants would be staying with the Giants (and new HC Ben McAdoo). Coughlin will be 71 years old when the 2017 season begins, so his days as a head coach are probably over.
  • Doug Marrone – Jaguars OL coach: Marrone has been on the hunt for a head coaching job ever since opting out of his Bills contract following the 2014 season. He met with the Browns, Dolphins, Giants, and Titans but, as he did last year, failed to land a new gig. He’ll once again lead Jacksonville’s offensive line (and serve as the club’s assistant head coach) this season.
  • Josh McDaniels and Matt Patricia – Patriots OC/DC: Between the two, McDaniels and Patricia only ended up taking one interview (Patricia with the Browns). But both coaches were hot names on the coaching market as a result of being key figures in New England’s success. The Dolphins requested interviews with both (neither went), and both were considered strong candidates for the Titans vacancy. Spending another season under the tutelage of Bill Belichick isn’t the worst outcome, however, and both will look for top jobs again next year.
  • Sean McDermott – Panthers DC: For a coach who has lead one of the league’s best defenses for the past five year (including a No. 3 DVOA finish this season), McDermott didn’t garner that much interest. He interviewed with the Browns and Buccaneers, and was also linked to the Giants and Eagles jobs. McDermott never seemed close to landing a head coaching job, however, so another season in Carolina is in the cards.
  • Anthony Lynn – Bills RB coach: Lynn — who is also an assistant head coach with Buffalo — might have the least name value of anyone on this list, but he did interview for two jobs (Dolphins and 49ers). Former NFL scout Dan Hatman recently tweeted that Lynn “has head coach written all over him,” so perhaps the 2017 cycle will be kinder to his prospects.
  • Mike Shanahan – former NFL head coach: 2016 marked the second consecutive season that Shanahan was linked to the 49ers’ head coaching position, and of course, the second consecutive that San Francisco chose another candidate. He also interviewed for the Dolphins job. At 63 years old, it’s doubtful that Shanahan will be a candidate for vacancies next year.
  • Mike Smith – former Falcons HC: After sitting out the 2015 season, Smith interviewed for both the Dolphins and Giants jobs, and was mentioned as a candidate for the 49ers and Buccaneers gigs. As it stands, he will be heading to Tampa Bay, albeit as Dirk Koetter‘s new defensive coordinator.
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2016 Offensive/Defensive Coordinator Tracker

By | at January 15, 2016 5:56 pm

While at least six NFL teams are making head coaching changes this offseason, the number of clubs replacing offensive and/or defensive coordinators figures to be much higher than that. In addition to all those teams hiring new head coaches, who may want to bring in their own assistants, several clubs also figure to make changes on one side of the ball or the other after getting disappointing results in 2015. And, of course, the teams whose coordinators landed head coaching jobs will need to replace them.

With reports circulating on potential candidates, interview requests, and actual meetings, we’ll use the space below to keep tabs on all the latest updates on teams hiring new offensive and/or defensive coordinators. This post, which will be updated daily, can be found under the “PFR Features” menu on the right-hand side of the site.

Updated 2-16-16 (11:22am CT)

Offensive coordinators

Defensive coordinators

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Checking In On NFL Head Coaching Searches

By | at January 13, 2016 10:47 am

So far, seven teams have parted ways with their head coaches this month, and it’s possible that one or two more clubs will ultimately decide to make a change. While most of those firings occurred within a day or two of the regular season ending, only one team – the Dolphins – has hired a replacement so far. Miami tabbed Bears offensive coordinator Adam Gase as its new head coach.

[RELATED: PFR’s 2016 NFL Head Coaching Search Tracker]

With the NFL’s owners meetings in Houston coming to an end, teams seeking a new head coach can resume that process in earnest, and it’s possible some of those clubs will conclude their searches by week’s end. Here’s where each situation stands:Hue Jackson (vertical)

Cleveland Browns

Interviewed:
Teryl Austin (Lions DC), Hue Jackson (Bengals OC), Doug Marrone (Jaguars OL coach), Sean McDermott (Panthers DC), Matt Patricia (Patriots DC)

In addition to the candidates listed above, the Browns also interviewed Gase, who has since joined the Dolphins, and Cowboys defensive backs coach Jerome Henderson, who appears poised to remain in Dallas.

It looks like Jackson is the top candidate in Cleveland, with the Browns said to be pursuing him most aggressively, though the club hadn’t put a formal offer on the table as of last night. Jackson is set to interview with the Giants today or tomorrow, and if he isn’t hired by New York, he looks like a decent bet to land in Cleveland.

It’s not clear who the Browns’ second choice would be, but it will have to be someone willing to work with the new analytics-oriented front office that includes former MLB executive Paul DePodesta. Despite Cleveland’s history and the club’s unusual front office structure, this job has some appeal, since the Browns’ new head coach will report directly to owner Jimmy Haslam and should have a say in personnel decisions.

New York Giants

Interviewed:
Teryl Austin (Lions DC), Doug Marrone (Jaguars OL coach), Ben McAdoo (Giants OC), Mike Smith (former Falcons HC), Steve Spagnuolo (Giants DC)

The Giants reportedly value previous head coaching experience, which could make Marrone and Smith strong candidates, but the team also doesn’t want to lose McAdoo, which may mean promoting him. Giants owner Steve Tisch said on Tuesday that New York would like to wrap up its coaching search by the end of the week, but there’s still one notable interview on tap, with Hue Jackson set to meet with the club on Wednesday or Thursday.

Jackson is another candidate who has previous head coaching experience, and the fact that he plans on meeting with the Giants even after drawing strong interest from other clubs suggests that he’s intrigued by the job in New York. The Giants’ decision may hinge on how that interview goes.

Philadelphia Eagles

Interviewed:
Tom Coughlin (former Giants HC), Ben McAdoo (Giants OC), Doug Pederson (Chiefs OC), Pat Shurmur (Eagles interim HC), Duce Staley (Eagles RBs coach)

After being initially linked to Gase, the Eagles were believed to be targeting Pederson as their next head coach, but that decision is far from final. While Shurmur and Staley don’t appear to be likely candidates to become Chip Kelly‘s permanent replacement, any of the team’s three other interviewees could be in play.

As Matt Lombardo of NJ.com details, ESPN’s Adam Schefter suggested during a radio appearance that McAdoo is drawing serious consideration from the Eagles and may be the front-runner. Coughlin’s interview went well too, though he probably isn’t the type of long-term option the Eagles would prefer. Unless the Eagles conduct additional interviews, the team’s decision may come down to Pederson or McAdoo.

San Francisco 49ers

Interviewed:
Tom Coughlin (former Giants HC), John DeFilippo (Browns OC), Hue Jackson (Bengals OC), Chip Kelly (former Eagles HC), Dirk Koetter (Buccaneers OC), Anthony Lynn (Bills RBs coach)

The 49ers’ search has been one of the most confusing to follow over the last week to 10 days. After firing Jim Tomsula, the team was believed to be targeting coaches like Sean Payton and Stanford’s David Shaw, but both of those men preferred to stay where they were.

Jackson was then identified as the likely favorite for the 49ers’ job – or at least the team’s top choice – but a Tuesday report suggested San Francisco may be backing off that pursuit, perhaps due to the strong interest the Bengals OC is generating from other teams. Meanwhile, DeFilippo may be more of a target at offensive coordinator and Koetter is considered the odds-on favorite for the Bucs job, so it’s not clear if they’re seriously in the mix for the top job in San Francisco.

Could Coughlin or Kelly end up with the Niners’ job? Perhaps. According to Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com, the team doesn’t have any additional interviews on its schedule, and seems to be nearing the end of its coaching search. Although there has been speculation that the 49ers could circle back to a candidate they interviewed a year ago – such as Mike Shanahan or Josh McDaniels, among others – it doesn’t look like any of those potential candidates will get new interviews this time around.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Interviewed:
Harold Goodwin (Cardinals OC), Dirk Koetter (Buccaneers OC), Sean McDermott (Panthers OC)

The Buccaneers’ head coaching search certainly hasn’t been as expansive as some others so far. The club got in meetings with Goodwin and McDermott during their teams’ respective bye weeks, and former Falcons coach Mike Smith has been mentioned as a candidate here. But Koetter, who had a formal interview this week, continues to look like the front-runner to replace Lovie Smith.

Of course, the longer the Buccaneers’ process lasts, the more it’ll look like the team is waiting for a second interview with someone like Goodwin or McDermott, so it’ll be interesting to see how this search plays out within the next few days.

Tennessee Titans

Interviewed:
None

Interim Titans head coach Mike Mularkey, Jaguars offensive line coach Doug Marrone, and Lions defensive coordinator Teryl Austin are all believed to have meetings on tap with Tennessee, but the club has yet to conduct any of those interviews. Chip Kelly and others have also been linked to the job.

The Titans have prioritized hiring a general manager, and are expected to name one very soon. Frankly, while Mularkey has been considered the favorite for the team’s permanent head coaching job, it’s hard to get a real idea of what direction the franchise will go until that new GM takes over.

Other potential openings

New Lions general manager Bob Quinn is still considering whether or not to retain head coach Jim Caldwell, so Detroit could become the eighth team to seek a replacement if Quinn decides to make a change.

Additionally, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that one of the eight teams still alive in the playoffs makes a head coaching change, though I don’t think it’s likely, since none of those eight coaches are presumed to be on the hot seat. Packers head coach Mike McCarthy may have been at risk if his team had lost last weekend, but barring a total meltdown in round two, I’d be surprised if Green Bay makes a change.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

0 comments Cleveland Browns Detroit Lions New York Giants Newsstand PFR Originals Philadelphia Eagles San Francisco 49ers Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tennessee Titans

PFR Originals: 1/3/16 – 1/10/16

By | at January 10, 2016 4:34 pm

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

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