HEADLINES

PFR Originals News & Rumors

2016 Cap Outlook: Baltimore Ravens

November 28th, 2015 at 11:40am CST by Luke Adams

Through the 2015 NFL season, Pro Football Rumors has been looking ahead to the 2016 offseason, gauging the salary cap situation for a number of teams with significant cap charges for next season. The cap for 2016 hasn’t been set yet, but we can still assess the salary commitments made by a club and determine whether or not that club will be in good financial shape going forward.

In addition to evaluating each team’s overall cap situation, we’ll focus in on a few key players who may be candidates to be extended, restructured, or released by their current teams. These lists aren’t comprehensive, and depending on a player’s 2015 performance and health, he could drop off one of these lists – or be added to one – as the season goes on. For now though, these are some players to watch.

Using data from Over The Cap, we’re making our way through NFL teams in order of total salary commitments for 2016. Today’s team is the Ravens, who currently have the sixth-highest total for their ’16 cap.

Let’s dive in….

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Joe Flacco, QB: $28,550,000
  2. Jimmy Smith, CB: $9,600,000
  3. Lardarius Webb, CB: $9,500,000
  4. Eugene Monroe, LT: $8,700,000
  5. Marshal Yanda, RG: $7,985,882
  6. Terrell Suggs, OLB: $7,450,000
  7. Elvis Dumervil, OLB: $7,375,000
  8. Dennis Pitta, TE: $7,200,000
  9. Jeremy Zuttah, C: $4,607,206
  10. Will Hill, S: $4,590,000
    Current 2016 cap number for top 51 players: $144,588,978

Flacco’s cap hit for 2016 is so massive compared to the rest of the Ravens’ figures that the next three highest cap numbers combined don’t even match it. There’s little question that Flacco’s deal must be addressed this offseason, but the fact that Baltimore doesn’t have any other eight-digit salaries for 2016 is a plus. It gives the team the flexibility to explore a couple different approaches with Flacco — either reduce his cap charge for 2016 significantly, potentially creating all the space you need for the year, or only reduce it a little, avoiding increasing his future cap numbers too much.

Candidates for extension:

  • Joe Flacco, QB
  • Will Hill, S

If he played any other position, Flacco would be a candidate for a restructure, rather than an extension, since he’ll still have three years left on his contract heading into the winter. But with cap hits of $28.55MM, $31.15MM, and $24.75MM, the best way to make the contract manageable in the future for the Ravens is to tack on a couple extra years, spreading a new signing bonus out over the longest stretch possible.

Flacco’s torn ACL will make negotiations a little more interesting this offseason, but we’ve seen quarterbacks return successfully from that injury in the past, and it’s not as if Flacco relies heavily on his ability to run. The veteran signal-caller is currently set to earn a base salary of $18MM next year, so – between guaranteed salary and bonus money – the Ravens will have to exceed that figure on any new deal. It’ll be an interesting situation to watch.

Elsewhere, Hill is on track to earn a fraction of what Flacco will make in 2016, but his performance in the secondary since joining the Ravens has been excellent. He’ll be due for a raise, so it might be tricky for Baltimore to lower his $4.59MM cap number at all, but some creative financing would at least help the team avoid increasing that figure.

Candidates for restructure:

  • Daryl Smith, ILB
  • Terrell Suggs, OLB
  • Lardarius Webb, CB

Out of this trio of players, Webb – who has been solid, but not spectacular this season – looks like the most logical candidate for a restructure — with Jimmy Smith‘s extension set to kick in, I don’t know that the Ravens will want to pay a $5.5MM salary for Webb, whose $9.5MM cap hit projects to be the team’s third-highest. Giving Webb a modest signing bonus, plus the ability to earn that full $5.5MM through bonuses and incentives rather than a guaranteed salary, might make sense for Baltimore.

As for Suggs, he’s 33 years old and will be coming off a torn Achilles, so there’s a good chance he won’t be the same player he was before the injury. But the dead money left on his deal ($8.85MM) outweighs his 2016 cap hit ($7.45MM), so if they think he has something left in the tank, the Ravens will likely explore a restructure rather than considering releasing him.

The third veteran defender listed here, Smith might have the easiest contract to restructure, since it doesn’t feature nearly as much prorated bonus money as Webb’s or Suggs’. In each of the next two seasons, Smith is owed a $3.5MM base salary and has a $4.375MM cap hit. The club may not require the modest savings that restructuring Smith’s contract would provide, but doing so could free up about $1.25MM in space for 2016, without creating major problems for 2017.

Candidates for pay cut or release:

It’s worth noting that just because a player is a “candidate” to take a pay cut or be released, that certainly doesn’t mean it’ll happen. But it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Pitta avoids that fate — 2015 was his second straight lost season, and his ongoing hip issues make a comeback an uphill battle. Even if the Ravens do want to keep him on the roster, they won’t want him at his $5MM salary, which is non-guaranteed.

Two other offensive playmakers currently on the injured reserve list earned spots on this list, but if Smith wants to continue his playing career, the Ravens will almost certainly welcome him back for the last year of his current contract — he and his $3MM base salary would only be removed from the roster if he decides to retire. Forsett is a good bet to be back as well, but if Javorius Allen excels down the stretch, the Ravens would have to at least briefly think about moving on from the veteran, who will also make a $3MM salary and wasn’t as explosive in 2015 as he was in 2014.

Canty, Arrington, and Elam are all on the books for cap hits between $2-3MM, so cutting them wouldn’t create a ton of savings. Canty has been effective enough that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Baltimore keep him at his current price for one more year, though Arrington has seen his playing time slashed in recent weeks and may be expendable. Given the extra draft picks they always have at their disposal, the Ravens could identify younger, cheaper replacements for those veterans.

Elam, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick entering the fourth year of his rookie contract, but he struggled in his first two seasons and missed his third with a bicep injury. While he’s cheap enough that the Ravens could keep him around for one more season and turn down his fifth-year option for 2017, he has been surpassed on the depth chart, and his upside is dwindling.

Contract information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.

Community Tailgate: Jones, Brown Chasing Yardage Record

November 27th, 2015 at 6:59pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

As the NFL regular season nears its home stretch, there are plenty of topics and storylines to discuss, and PFR’s Community Tailgate is designed to address those stories. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. We’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

The Lions’ Calvin Johnson had the most prolific season ever in terms of receiving yards in 2012, setting the all-time record with 1,964. That record could be in jeopardy this year, ESPN’s Michael Rothstein noted earlier this week, as the Falcons’ Julio Jones and the Steelers’ Antonio Brown are doing their best to outdo Johnson’s 2012 total. Jones leads the league with 1,189 yards, while Brown is close behind with 1,141. Johnson averaged just under 123 yards per game during his record-setting campaign, so Jones (118.9) and Brown (114.1) will both need to pick up their respective paces.

What’s unlikely to help Jones going forward is having to face NFC South rival Carolina twice in his final six games. The Panthers presently boast Football Outsiders’ top-ranked pass defense in the NFC and are led by shutdown cornerback Josh Norman. How good is Norman? As Pro Football Focus’ Sam Monson tweeted Thursday, opposing quarterbacks would be better off throwing passes directly into the ground than testing him. That certainly doesn’t bode well for Jones. On the other hand, Jones still has a pair of games left against the awful pass defenses of the Jaguars and Saints. That should help balance out having to deal with Norman two times, but it might not be enough.

Brown, like Jones, has some less-than-ideal opponents left on his team’s schedule. It starts Sunday against the Seahawks, who allow the fewest passing yards per game in the NFC. The Steelers also have a game against the Broncos, who are atop the league in pass defense by both traditional stats and Football Outsiders’. Luckily for Brown, three of the Steelers’ other four opponents – the Colts, Ravens and Browns – have bottom-feeding pass defenses. Further, for now at least, three-time Pro Bowl quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is healthy. Roethlisberger has been shelved with multiple injuries this year, which has hurt Brown’s numbers. Brown was without Roethlisberger for all of October and averaged a pedestrian (by his standards) 58.75 yards per game. In games that Roethlisberger has at least appeared in this season, Brown has racked up a ridiculous 151 yards per contest. It’s a lot to ask, of course, but 151 yards per matchup during the last six weeks would give Brown over 2,000 yards for the season – enough to unseat Johnson.

What do you think? Is Johnson’s record in jeopardy? Regardless, how many yards will Jones and Brown finish with this year?

Weigh in below in the comments section to let us know your thoughts!

Community Tailgate: NFC Playoff Picture

November 24th, 2015 at 10:29am CST by Luke Adams

As the NFL regular season nears its home stretch, there are plenty of topics and storylines to discuss, and PFR’s Community Tailgate is designed to address those stories. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. We’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

Last week, we explored the AFC playoff picture, which appeared cloudy at the time and hasn’t exactly cleared up any further in the days since then. Things are perhaps a little less murky in the NFC, where there are at least two clear contenders for the Wild Card spots, but with six weeks still left in the season, there are plenty of questions still to be answered.

The 10-0 Panthers have all but locked up a postseason berth in some form or another, and the 8-2 Cardinals, barring a total collapse, will join them in the playoffs. In the NFC North, the Packers and Vikings are tied at 7-3, putting them in good position to earn playoff spots as the division winner and Wild Card team, in some order.

Green Bay and Minnesota aren’t 100% locks though, and neither are the 6-4 Falcons, who are currently holding the second Wild Card spot despite losing three consecutive games. The Giants, Buccaneers, and Seahawks are all lurking at 5-5, and there are several 4-6 teams that shouldn’t be ruled out of the picture quite yet.

Of course, one of those 5-5 teams – the Giants – leads the NFC East, where no teams are above .500 at the moment. That division is so bunched up that the 3-7 Cowboys, who lost seven straight contests in Tony Romo‘s absence, are a solid dark horse candidate to ultimately snatch the East crown from New York, Philadelphia, and Washington.

What do you think? Which six teams will make the postseason in the NFC? Will the defending NFC champs in Seattle end up nabbing a Wild Card spot? Will the first team to nine wins take the NFC East?

Weigh in below in the comments section to let us know your thoughts!

PFR Originals: 11/15/15 – 11/22/15

November 22nd, 2015 at 2:52pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • Luke Adams scrutinized the 2016 cap outlook for the Steelers, identifying Antonio Brown and David DeCastro as potential candidates for an extension, while noting that Cortez Allen, Jacoby Jones, and others could be in danger of being released.
  • Luke also posted a complete list of traded NFL draft picks for 2016.
  • Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.
  • In our Community Tailgate series, we post topics for discussion and encourage readers to share their thoughts in the comments section. The issues covered this week:
    • What is the outlook for the NFL’s remaining undefeated teams, the Patriots and the Panthers? (link)
    • How will the AFC playoff picture shake out? (link)

2016 Cap Outlook: Pittsburgh Steelers

November 20th, 2015 at 3:03pm CST by Luke Adams

Through the 2015 NFL season, Pro Football Rumors will be looking ahead to the 2016 offseason, gauging the salary cap situation for each of the league’s 32 teams. The cap for 2016 hasn’t been set yet, but we can still assess the salary commitments made by a club and determine whether or not that club will be in good financial shape going forward.

In addition to evaluating each team’s overall cap situation, we’ll focus in on a few key players who may be candidates to be extended, restructured, or released by their current teams. These lists aren’t comprehensive, and depending on a player’s 2015 performance and health, he could drop off one of these lists – or be added to one – as the season goes on. For now though, these are some players to watch.

Using data from Over The Cap, we’re making our way through NFL teams in order of total salary commitments for 2016. Today’s team is the Steelers, who currently have the fifth-highest total for their ’16 cap.

Let’s dive in….

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Ben Roethlisberger, QB: $23,950,000
  2. Lawrence Timmons, LB: $15,131,250
  3. Antonio Brown, WR: $12,370,833
  4. Maurkice Pouncey, C: $10,551,000
  5. Cameron Heyward, DE: $10,400,000
  6. David DeCastro, G: $8,070,000
  7. Heath Miller, TE: $7,181,668
  8. Mike Mitchell, S: $6,763,750
  9. Marcus Gilbert, RT: $6,461,000
  10. Cortez Allen, CB: $5,750,000
    Current 2016 cap number for top 51 players: $144,927,485

With a new contract extension in hand, Roethlisberger will continue to be the Steelers’ highest-paid player – with the club’s largest cap number – going forward. But he’s hardly the only veteran player who has a substantial cap hit in 2016. Timmons’ figure is perhaps the most interesting, since it’s extremely rare to see a cap charge get that high for any inside linebacker. He’s followed by three other players with eight-digit cap numbers, two of whom signed new contract extensions within the last year and a half.

Candidates for extension:

  • Antonio Brown, WR
  • David DeCastro, G

Brown had hoped to sign a new contract this past offseason, but ultimately settled for a reworking of his deal that saw some money moved from 2016 to 2015. It’s not a surprise that the Steelers were unwilling to do anything more drastic, since the pact runs through the 2017 season, and extending it so early would set an unwanted precedent. However, the two sides could revisit talks this coming offseason.

Brown’s current contract calls for him to make a combined $15MM in base salary in 2016 and 2017, which is far below the salaries that recently-signed wideouts like Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, and T.Y. Hilton are getting. So Brown should be in line for a nice raise. Still, depending on how the Steelers structure an offer, an extension could significantly reduce Brown’s 2016 cap number from its current $12.37MM figure.

As for DeCastro, he has a fifth-year option keeping him under contract with Pittsburgh for the 2016 season. DeCastro is a steady, reliable presence in the middle of the Steelers’ offensive line, but the team will likely want to bring down his cap charge for next year a little, since it currently exceeds $8MM. If DeCastro were to sign a long-term extension, the annual average would likely be a little less than that, and the new deal could be backloaded, reducing his impact on the 2016 cap.

Candidates for restructure:

  • Marcus Gilbert, RT
  • Cameron Heyward, DE
  • Mike Mitchell, S
  • Maurkice Pouncey, C
  • Ben Roethlisberger, QB

Most of the players listed here have contracts with similar structures — Gilbert, Heyward, Mitchell, and Pouncey will all see their cap hits increase significantly in 2016 and remain fairly high in future seasons, so if the Steelers choose to restructure any of those deals, they could be creating problems down the road. I wouldn’t expect the club to want – or need – to restructure all four players, but one or two of them could be addressed if cap room start getting tight.

Heyward and Pouncey could be the top candidates for restructures, for a couple of reasons. For one, their cap charges are a few million dollars larger than Gilbert’s or Mitchell’s, so restructuring those deals will make a bigger impact. Additionally, their contracts through 2019 or 2020, meaning a signing bonus can be spread across several seasons without affecting a single year too negatively.

Roethlisberger’s contract may be the most logical one for a restructure though — his $23.95MM cap hit for 2016 is higher than his cap numbers in 2017, 2018, or 2019, so moving some money to those later years isn’t quite so risky, and it could create massive flexibility in the short term, if necessary.

Candidates for pay cut or release:

It’s hard to imagine the Steelers releasing either Miller or Timmons, who have been with the franchise since 2005 and 2007, respectively. Nonetheless, the team will have to take a hard look at both players’ contracts, which expire at the end of the 2016 season.

Miller hasn’t been quite as productive this year as he has been in some recent seasons, though his slightly reduced numbers could be a result of the quarterback carousel that began when Roethlisberger was injured. Timmons, meanwhile, battled a toe injury during the preseason, and hasn’t been as effective in the middle of the defense as he has been in years past. Pittsburgh could create $4MM in cap savings by cutting Miller, and nearly $9MM by cutting Timmons, though pay cuts or extensions are probably more likely.

Allen and Jones, on the other hand, look like obvious release candidates, though Jones’ deal is much easier to shed than Allen’s, which will still include $4MM+ in dead money in 2016. Given how little the Steelers have gotten out of the cornerback since he signed that extension with the club, it’s hard to see how they can keep him at a $4MM base salary though, so that deal will need to be addressed in some form. For his part, Jones would have to have a huge second half in 2015 to return on his current $3MM salary for 2016.

Moats’ case falls somewhere in the middle. His $2.5MM base salary for next season isn’t exorbitant, and he has a pair of sacks for the Steelers this year. But he’s not exactly irreplaceable, and if Pittsburgh plans to address the outside linebacker position in the draft, there will be players that could replicate Moats’ production at a lesser cost. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the veteran linebacker return on his current contract, but the Steelers should have to at least consider making a move.

Contract information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.

Community Tailgate: AFC Playoff Picture

November 20th, 2015 at 1:35pm CST by Luke Adams

As the NFL regular season nears its home stretch, there are plenty of topics and storylines to discuss, and PFR’s Community Tailgate is designed to address those stories. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. We’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

With seven weeks remaining in the NFL season, a few division races around the league are closer than others. Bills head coach Rex Ryan admitted this week that the 9-0 Patriots will almost certainly win the AFC East, considering New England holds a four-game lead over both the Jets and Ryan’s Bills. Elsewhere though, there’s a little more drama, if you can call the AFC South race “dramatic” — two teams with sub-.500 records – the 4-5 Colts and Texans – are currently tied for first place in the South.

We’ll get to the NFC next week, but today, we want to take a look at the AFC playoff picture. The Pats are locks to reach the postseason, and the 8-1 Bengals look like a pretty safe bet as well, but are there any other sure things?

The 7-2 Broncos hold a three-game division lead, and should have no problem winning the West, but they’ll be relying on Brock Osweiler at quarterback for at least the short-term future, so there are no guarantees. The 6-4 Steelers have looked solid, but they’ve also been hit hard by injuries, and they don’t have much room for error, with eight AFC teams sitting on either four or five wins. The Bills and Jets are the only five-win teams, but the four-win Dolphins, Raiders, Chiefs, Colts, Texans, and Jaguars are all lurking.

What do you think? Will the three AFC teams with big division leads hang on? Which club will win the AFC South, and which teams will snag Wild Card spots? Are you predicting a second-half surge or collapse from any postseason contenders?

Weigh in below in the comments section with your thoughts and predictions!

Community Tailgate: Undefeated NFL Teams

November 18th, 2015 at 12:56pm CST by Luke Adams

As the NFL regular season nears its home stretch, there are plenty of topics and storylines to discuss, and PFR’s Community Tailgate is designed to address those stories. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. We’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

One of the NFL’s three remaining undefeated teams was unable to make it through Week 10 unscathed, as the Bengals dropped a shocker in Cincinnati to the Texans on Monday night to fall to 8-1. The Bengals’ loss leaves the 9-0 Patriots and Panthers as the league’s only teams without a loss, with just seven weeks remaining in the regular season.

Despite being hit hard by injuries, the Patriots have looked like the NFL’s best team for most of the season, and will host the Bills this Monday night as they look to push their record to 10-0. The team’s schedule the rest of the way looks like this:

  1. vs. Bills
  2. at Broncos
  3. vs. Eagles
  4. at Texans
  5. vs. Titans
  6. at Jets
  7. at Dolphins

As for the Panthers, impressive wins against the Seahawks, Eagles, Packers, and Colts in recent weeks have gone a long way to proving they’re no fluke. Carolina’s schedule the rest of the way is as follows:

  1. vs. Washington
  2. at Cowboys
  3. at Saints
  4. vs. Falcons
  5. at Giants
  6. at Falcons
  7. vs. Buccaneers

Neither team’s schedule features a real murderer’s row of opponents, but there are potential pitfalls for both clubs. Even without Peyton Manning, the Broncos have a strong enough team to give the Pats some trouble, and those divisional games, particularly on the road, won’t be easy.

As for the Panthers, the Cowboys may be 2-7 now, but they’re a different team with Tony Romo in the mix. Road games against the Saints and Giants won’t be a cakewalk either, and the Falcons will look to avoid being swept against their division rivals.

What do you think? When will the Patriots and Panthers lose next? Does either team have a real chance to go undefeated? If not, how many wins do you think they’ll finish with, and will that regular season success translate to postseason wins? Will we see these two teams meet in the postseason?

Weigh in below in the comments section to let us know your thoughts on the NFL’s last two undefeated clubs!

Traded NFL Draft Picks For 2016

November 16th, 2015 at 11:56am CST by Luke Adams

While many 2016 NFL draft picks that get traded won’t be moved until the offseason, or during next year’s draft itself, plenty of selections have already changed hands. Unlike in 2015’s draft, no teams have surrendered a first-round pick for 2016 in a trade, but at least one pick in each of the other six rounds has been dealt.

Listed below are the 2016 draft picks that have been included in trades so far. In addition to the selections which will change hands no matter what happens between now and the 2016 draft, we’ve also included several picks which were conditionally traded. If we have information on what conditions must be met for those picks to be moved, those details have been included as well.

In some cases, those conditions have been included even if they won’t be met. For instance, the Eagles would have received a fourth-round pick from the Rams if Sam Bradford had played less than 50% of the team’s snaps this season. However, with Bradford having played every single one of Philadelphia’s offensive snaps for the first nine weeks, that pick won’t change hands.

Finally, a handful of picks were traded by teams holding multiple selections in a given round, meaning it’s not entirely clear which pick will change hands. For example, when the Broncos moved up in the 2015 draft to nab Shane Ray, they sent a 2016 fifth-round pick to the Lions. However, Denver held both its own fifth-round pick and Baltimore’s fifth-rounder at the time of that trade, so it’s not known which of those two picks was sent to Detroit.

This list will continue to be updated throughout the offseason, and can be found anytime on our right-hand sidebar under the PFR Features menu. Be sure to check back after trades have been consummated for an updated look at which picks are on the move for 2016. If you have any corrections, please contact us.

Here are 2016’s traded draft picks:

Updated 4-20-16

Round 1

  • Browns acquired pick from Eagles in deal for No. 2 overall pick.
  • Dolphins acquired pick from Eagles in deal for CB Byron Maxwell, LB Kiko Alonso.
  • Eagles acquired pick from Browns in deal for No. 2 overall pick.
  • Eagles acquired pick from Dolphins in deal for CB Byron Maxwell, LB Kiko Alonso.
  • Rams acquired pick from Titans in deal for No. 1 overall pick.
  • Titans acquired pick from Rams in deal for No. 1 overall pick.

Round 2

  • Patriots acquired pick from Cardinals in deal for DE/OLB Chandler Jones.
  • Rams acquired pick from Eagles in deal for QB Sam Bradford.
  • Titans acquired two picks from Rams in deal for No. 1 overall pick.

Round 3

  • Browns acquired pick from Eagles in deal for No. 2 overall pick.
  • Eagles acquired pick from Lions in deal for DT Gabe Wright.
  • Titans acquired pick from Rams in deal for No. 1 overall pick.

Round 4

  • Bears acquired pick from Patriots in deal for TE Martellus Bennett.
  • Browns acquired pick from Eagles in deal for No. 2 overall pick.
  • Eagles acquired pick from Titans in deal for RB DeMarco Murray.
  • Rams acquired pick from Titans in deal for No. 1 overall pick.
  • Ravens acquired pick from Broncos in deal for C Gino Gradkowski.
  • Titans acquired pick from Eagles in deal for RB DeMarco Murray.

Round 5

Round 6

(Note: Bears acquired sixth-round pick from Patriots in deal for LB Jon Bostic. However, Patriots later acquired pick back in deal for TE Martellus Bennett.)

Round 7

  • Broncos acquired pick from 49ers in deal for TE Vernon Davis.
  • Broncos acquired pick from Texans in deal for T Chris Clark.
  • Dolphins acquired pick from Ravens in deal for CB Will Davis.
  • Eagles acquired pick from Cardinals in deal for QB Matt Barkley.
  • Jets acquired pick from Broncos in deal for T Ryan Clady.
  • Patriots acquired pick from Texans in deal for QB Ryan Mallett.
  • Seahawks acquired pick from Cowboys in deal for RB Christine Michael.
  • Steelers acquired pick from Giants in deal for P Brad Wing.
  • Texans acquired pick from Rams in deal for QB Case Keenum.
  • Vikings acquired pick from Bills in deal for QB Matt Cassel.
  • Washington acquired pick from Buccaneers in deal for S Dashon Goldson.

Lost draft picks

  • Patriots lost first-round pick due to NFL discipline (Deflategate).
  • Chiefs lost third-round pick due to NFL discipline (tampering).
  • Falcons lost fifth-round pick due to NFL discipline (fake crowd noise).
  • Rams lost fifth-round pick after using it in 2015 supplemental draft on T Isaiah Battle.

ProSportsTransactions.com was used in the creation of this post.

PFR Originals: 11/8/15 – 11/15/15

November 15th, 2015 at 2:51pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Extension Candidate: Josh Norman

November 14th, 2015 at 9:27pm CST by Dallas Robinson

While the contributions from quarterback Cam Newton are obvious, it’s been the Panthers defense that has carried the club to two consecutive playoff appearances and an undefeated record in 2015. That unit, which ranked third in Football Outsiders’ DVOA in 2013 before slipping to 15th in 2014, has rebounded to the second overall position this season. The club’s defense has been headlined by several stars in the past, from standout linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis to veteran defensive end Charles Johnson, but this year there is one star who stands head-and-shoulders above the rest: cornerback Josh Norman."Nov

Norman, a fifth-round pick out of Coastal Carolina in 2012, was a starter for much of his rookie season before being benched late in the year, and his struggles continued during his sophomore season, during which he was active for only seven games. But after veterans Drayton Florence and Captain Munnerlyn departed prior to the 2014 season, Norman worked his way back into the starting lineup, and by year’s end, was already in the top-10 cornerback conversation.

2015, however, has witnessed an altogether dominant Norman, as he’s emerged as a shutdown corner capable of unhinging opponents’ passing-game plans. Through eight games, Norman has posted four interceptions, two of which he’s returned for touchdowns, while defensing 13 passes. Per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required), he rates as the top corner in the league, recording an overall grade of 95.2 (on PFF’s new 1-100 scale).

Going game-by-game, it’s clear the Norman has disrupted the production of some of the game’s best wideouts. In week 1, Norman held Texans receiver DeAndre Hopkins (now the NFL’s third-leading receiver) to just five catches for 53 yards. Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans and Indianapolis’ T.Y. Hilton saw similar struggles against Norman, posting just 3-32 and 1-15 lines, respectively. Last month, PFF’s Sam Monson penned an excellent breakdown of Norman’s play, with this amazing nugget tucked within: Through six games, Norman had allowed an opposing passer rating of just 24.1. A QB’s passer rating if he simply threw the ball into the ground every play? 39.6, 15.5 points better than throwing at Norman.

Unfortunately for the Panthers, they’ve failed to reach an extension agreement with Norman in the year-plus that he’s been eligible for such a deal. Prior to this season, Norman reportedly turned down a long-term contract that would have paid him $7MM annually, a decision that is now proving astute. He’ll now hit unrestricted free agency in March, and having earned a total of just $2.3MM via his rookie contract, he’s surely looking for a big payday.

Luckily for us, there have been several top-notch corners signed to extensions in recent years, so we have a nice crop of deals to use as comparables. Here are the five contracts that Norman and his representatives will likely use as a basis during negotiations, sorted by guaranteed money:

Source: overthecap.com

Source: overthecap.com

Maxwell, who, it should be noted, signed a free agent contract and not an extension, sets the floor in terms of annual value at $10.5MM, but realistically, Norman should garner much more than that. His target is surely $14MM per annum, the mark reached by Revis, Peterson, and Sherman, each of whom are considered among the top corners in the league. And given his play over the past two seasons, there is no reason Norman shouldn’t be able to secure that figure.

The guarantee is likely to be where Norman and the Panthers have some disagreement. Revis was able to get $39MM in guaranteed money, but he has played the free agent game masterfully during his career, and created a demand that Norman is unlikely to gin up. Additionally, Revis was orchestrating negotiations without the threat of the franchise tag hanging over his head, an issue Norman will likely be unable to avoid.

There’s no question in my mind that, failing an extension, the Panthers will slap Norman with the franchise tag. Last year’s cornerback figure was a tad over $13MM, so for the sake of discussion, let’s assume the 2016 number will be somewhere around $14MM. Currently, Carolina only has about $16MM in cap space for the 2016 season, but the club has several moves it can make to clear out cap room. Jared Allen ($8.5MM cap charge), Roman Harper ($4.66MM), Michael Oher ($4.5MM), and Ted Ginn Jr. ($2.35MM) are all candidates to be released during the offseason, so the Panthers can create space if they want to.

So, based on my assumption that Norman will be negotiating solely with the Panthers, and not with the other 31 clubs, it’s going to be hard for him to challenge Revis’ $39MM figure. Obviously, the $14MM (or so) franchise tag guarantee would act as a guarantee floor, so Norman will have already topped Sherman in that regard. Ultimately, I think he’ll be able pass all the corners besides Revis in terms of guarantee, so something like a five-year, $70MM deal, with $25-28MM in guarantees, makes sense.

If Norman is somehow not franchise-tagged and is able to market himself to the entire league, his contract ceiling would raise incredibly. Not only would his play speak for itself, but next year’s corner market is full of older players like Adam Jones and Sean Smith, and slot corners like Casey Hayward, so Norman wouldn’t face much in the way of market competition. Norman could break the glass ceiling of $14MM annually, and come even closer to Revis’ $39MM guarantee.

Panthers general manager Dave Gettleman has instituted a policy of not negotiating extensions in-season, so unless he changes his mind, Norman will have to wait until next year to begin talks. But assuming he maintains his health and continues to play as a shutdown corner, Norman will have the opportunity to ask for the moon — and maybe get it.

Image courtesy of USA Sports Images.

Load More Posts