PFR Originals - Pro Football Rumors

2016 NFL Free Agent Power Rankings

By Dallas Robinson | at December 11, 2015 8:37 pm

There are still four weeks left in the regular season, but let’s turn our attention to the offseason for a moment, and take a look at the first edition of our 2016 NFL Free Agent Power Rankings. This list — compiled using our list of 2016 free agents — is comprised only of upcoming unrestricted free agents, and is sorted by projected guaranteed money.

1. Von Miller, LB: The 26-year-old Miller has the highest draft pedigree of any player on this list, having been selected second overall back in 2011. He’s certainly lived up to that draft billing, posting 58 sacks in 68 starts during his five years in the league. The advanced metrics like Miller as well, as he grades as the fourth-best edge defender in the NFL per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), which also rates him as the best pure pass-rusher at his position. PFR’s Luke Adams examined Miller’s extension case last November, projecting a five-year deal in the neighborhood of $75MM, but given that Miller has continued his high level of production in the year-plus since, I think it’s fair to argue that he’ll garner even more. His target will be Ndamukong Suh‘s ~$19MM average salary, and while he might not get there, $18MM annually isn’t out of the question.

2. Alshon Jeffery, WR: Injuries have hampered Jeffery thus in 2015, as he’s been limited to playing in only seven of 12 games. But when he has been active, he’s been as consistent as ever, averaging nearly 100 yards per game through the air while acting as the only reliable option in the Bears’ passing attack. Jeffery is as good a candidate as any to receive a franchise tag next spring, as he’s not only the real option for such a tender on the Chicago roster, but he’s easily the best receiver of the 2016 free agent class. Such a tender will obviously hinder his market value (at a one-year cost of about $14.5MM, per Joel Corry’s projections), but otherwise he’d be in line for a Julio Jones-esque deal: five years at more than $14MM per season.

3. Josh Norman, CB: Like Jeffery, Norman will almost certainly be franchise-tagged, essentially locking him onto the Panthers’ roster while the two sides attempt to knock out an extension. It’s been a true breakout season for Norman, who turns 28 years old on Tuesday — through Week 13, he grades as the best corner in the league (per PFF), just a touch better than Tyrann Mathieu. I looked at Norman’s case for an extension last month, arguing that Norman has certainly earned the going rate for top cornerbacks: five years, $70MM or so. That $14MM AAV would put him right in line with the league’s other top defensive backs, such as Darrelle Revis, Richard Sherman, and Patrick Peterson.

4. Muhammad Wilkerson, DE: Trade rumors surrounded Wilkerson during the draft following the Jets’ selection of Leonard Williams, who was added to an already loaded New York defensive line that also fields Sheldon Richardson and Damon Harrison. Wilkerson ultimately stuck with Gang Green, but cut off extension talks before camp, determined to play out his current contract. Not only has Wilkerson continued to exhibit his high level of play, but he’s remarkably active, having played the fifth-most snaps of any defensive lineman in the league. He’s another candidate for the franchise tag, as he’ll be likely be looking for a contract that makes him the second highest-paid 3-4 defensive end (after J.J. Watt). PFR’s Rob DiRe profiled Wilkerson — and his case for a new deal — in July.

5. Russell Okung, T: The 28-year-old Okung hasn’t always been the most consistent or the most durable player, as he missed an average of four games during the first five years of his career. But he’s got a first-round pedigree, and he’s been a part of one of the more successful clubs in the NFL during the past few seasons (including perhaps the preeminent running game). As Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap noted earlier this week, Okung — playing on one of the last surviving contracts signed under the old CBA — has already set a floor for talks with his six-year, $48.5MM rookie deal. He probably won’t match the $13MM annual salary reached by Trent Williams earlier this year, but Okung could aim for the second tier of tackle contracts ($10-11MM per year). I looked at Okung as an extension candidate earlier this year.

6. Kelechi Osemele, G: The Ravens likely won’t re-sign Osemele, having already handed fellow guard Marshal Yanda a four-year, $32MM deal earlier this year. I actually thought Yanda, who might be the single best interior lineman in the NFL, took less than he was worth, and I expect Osemele to not only aim higher, but seek to top the five-year, $40MM ($15.75MM guaranteed) contract inked by Mike Iupati last offseason, a topic I broached in my analysis of Osemele and Yanda’s extension arguments. He’d be worth the money, as he ranks as the fifth-best guard in the league per PFF (Yanda, ever the stalwart, ranks first).

7. Cordy Glenn, T: Glenn has perhaps the least name value of any on this list, as the former second-round pick has spent the entirety of his career in the relative anonymous confines of Buffalo. He’s been incredibly durable (just three missed starts in his career, all during his rookie season), and he’s performing quite well in his platform year, grading as the sixth-best tackle in the league per PFF. Glenn is solid option, not a star, but despite the decreasing disparity in importance between left and right tackles, those who protect the blind side still earn the bigger contracts.

8. Eric Berry, S: Perhaps the best story in the NFL this season, Berry is not only cancer-free about a year after being diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, but he’s playing the best football of his career, ranking as the league’s best overall safety per PFF. I expect he’ll return to the Chiefs, the club that drafted him with the fifth pick in 2010 (and the only team he’s ever played for). But there could be a hefty contract available on the free agent market, as safety salaries have steadily risen in recent years. Like Okung, he already scored a large rookie deal (more than $8MM annually), so he’ll probably be looking for more this time around. He’ll probably slide in just under Earl Thomas and Devin McCourty at $9MM per year or so.

9. Brock Osweiler, QB: The first wild card on the list, Osweiler has only three career starts to his name, but he is set up to earn a significant contract in free agency. His numbers thus far aren’t world-beating — he’s averaging just 208 yards passing per game while completing about 61% of his passes — but the dearth of quarterback talent in the NFL at the moment cannot be overstated. Any signal-caller who displays even a modicum of competence is potentially in line for a nice deal (let’s not forget Nick Foles garnered $12MM in guarantees this offseason). Also in Osweiler’s favor: Denver will likely use its franchise tag on Miller, meaning Osweiler could hit the open market unfettered.

10. Kirk Cousins, QB: The fact that the NFL has seen more of Cousins than Osweiler is, in my mind, a strike against the Washington quarterback — in other words, the league has seen the poor game tape of Cousins, where as Osweiler is still mostly projection. Still, there’s no denying that Cousins has played better football this year, and while he probably isn’t a candidate for the franchise tag, I’d be surprised if Washington doesn’t seek to work out a long-term deal.

Also considered: Kelvin Beachum, Mike Daniels, Malik Jackson, Olivier Vernon, Eric Weddle, Derek Wolfe.

15 comments Free Agent Power Rankings PFR Originals

Community Tailgate: Will Panthers Go 16-0?

By Luke Adams | at December 9, 2015 10:35 am

As the NFL regular season nears its home stretch, there are plenty of topics and storylines to discuss, and PFR’s Community Tailgate is designed to address those stories. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. We’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

Several weeks ago, when we surveyed PFR readers on whether the Patriots and Panthers could go undefeated, the general consensus was that New England had a better shot than Carolina at finishing 16-0. Since then, however, the Pats’ injury issues have caught up to them, and the club has lost consecutive games against the Broncos and Eagles.

The Panthers, on the other hand, continue to roll, surviving a Week 13 scare in New Orleans to sneak past the Saints and run their record to 12-0. With four weeks left in the season, the Panthers still have to play the Falcons, the Giants, the Falcons again, and the Bucs — Carolina should be favored in all four games, but each of those teams are fighting for a playoff spot in the NFC, so wins won’t come easy.

At the same time, the Panthers figure to face an interesting decision within the next couple weeks — do they go all-out in an effort to stay undefeated, or do they dial it back and rest some key players if and when they clinch a first-round bye and the NFC’s No. 1 seed?

Today’s discussion question is a two-parter, then. Will the Panthers run the table to finish with a 16-0 record? And should that even be a priority for the team? We’ve seen clubs in the past take the pedal off the gas with a week or two left in the season and have that decision backfire in the playoffs, when the long layoff for key players results in some rust in the divisional round. On the other hand, head coach Ron Rivera and his staff would likely get ripped by media and fans alike if Cam Newton were to go down with an injury in Week 16 or 17, after Carolina had already clinched home-field advantage.

So what do you think? Should the Panthers try to go 16-0 even if they’ve clinched a No. 1 seed with a couple weeks remaining? If they do go for it, will the Panthers be able to get by the Falcons, Giants, and Bucs to go undefeated? And either way, what sort of postseason outcome do you see for Carolina? Weigh in below with your thoughts!

2 comments Carolina Panthers Community Tailgate PFR Originals

2016 NFL Free Agents

By Luke Adams | at December 7, 2015 11:37 am

Pro Football Rumors’ up-to-date list of 2016 NFL free agents is below. These are players who are eligible for restricted or unrestricted free agency after the 2015 season. The player’s 2016 age is in parentheses. Players are generally sorted by the position at which they played most in ’15, or the position at which their most recent team listed them.

Players who finished the 2015 season on an NFL roster but don’t have a contract for 2016 are listed below, along with a few other notable free agents who didn’t finish the 2015 season on an NFL roster, and several players who have been cut since the season ended.

Players eligible for restricted free agency are marked with (R), while non-exclusive franchise and transition players will be marked with (F) and (T) respectively. Exclusive rights free agents are not included. All other free agents are assumed to be unrestricted.

If you have any corrections or omissions, please contact us. For instant free agent updates, be sure to follow us on Twitter @pfrumors.

Updated 12-8-16 (10:29am CT)

Quarterbacks

Jimmy Clausen (29)
Matt Flynn (31)
Josh Freeman (28)
Bruce Gradkowski (33)
Tarvaris Jackson (33)
Ryan Lindley (27)
Johnny Manziel (24)
Sean Renfree (26)
Michael Vick (36)
Charlie Whitehurst (34)
T.J. Yates (29)

Running Backs

Montee Ball (26)
Joe Banyard (27)
Ahmad Bradshaw (30)
Bryce Brown (25)
Donald Brown (29)
Anthony Dixon (29)
Kendall Gaskins (26)
Toby Gerhart (29)
Jonas Gray (25)
DuJuan Harris (28)
Roy Helu (27)
Kendall Hunter (28)
Fred Jackson (35)
Steven Jackson (33)
Isaiah Pead (26)
Trent Richardson (26)
Stevan Ridley (27)
Zac Stacy (25)
C.J. Spiller (29)
Daniel Thomas (29)
Pierre Thomas (32)
George Winn (25)

Fullbacks

Tyler Clutts (32)
Derrick Coleman (26)
Austin Johnson (27)
Jorvorskie Lane (29)
Will Tukuafu (32)
Darrel Young (29)

Wide Receivers

Jared Abbrederis (25)
Seyi Ajirotutu (29)
Miles Austin (32)
Jason Avant (33)
Brenton Bersin (26)
Dwayne Bowe (32)
Vincent Brown (27)
Jeremy Butler (25)
Andre Caldwell (31)
Michael Campanaro (25)
Marques Colston (33)
Riley Cooper (29)
Jerricho Cotchery (34)
B.J. Daniels (27)
Aaron Dobson (25)
Brandon Gibson (29)
Chris Givens (26)
Leonard Hankerson (27)
Brian Hartline (30)
Stephen Hill (25)
Damaris Johnson (27)
Jacoby Jones (32)
James Jones (32)
Greg Little (27)
Denarius Moore (28)
Marlon Moore (28)
Joe Morgan (28)
David Nelson (30)
Hakeem Nicks (28)
Chris Owusu (26)
Rueben Randle (25)
Jerome Simpson (30)
Marcus Thigpen (30)
Kenbrell Thompkins (28)
Brian Tyms (27)
Bryan Walters (29)
Nate Washington (33)
Wes Welker (35)
Griff Whalen (26)
Myles White (26)
Roddy White (35)
Kyle Williams (28)
Mike Williams (29)

Tight Ends

Scott Chandler (31)
Orson Charles (25)
Owen Daniels (34)
Dorin Dickerson (28)
Jim Dray (29)
Daniel Fells (33)
Chase Ford (26)
Garrett Graham (30)
Brian Leonhardt (26)
Anthony McCoy (29)
Matthew Mulligan (31)
Brian Parker (24)
Bear Pascoe (30)
Andrew Quarless (28)
Allen Reisner (28)
Konrad Reuland (29)
Alex Smith (34)
Matt Spaeth (32)

Tackles

Jason Fox (28)
Bryce Harris (27)
Lamar Holmes (27)
Jamon Meredith (30)
Erik Pears (34)
Byron Stingily (28)
J’Marcus Webb (28)

Guards

Jon Asamoah (28)
Mackenzy Bernadeau (30)
Willie Colon (33)
Paul Fanaika (30)
Andrew Gardner (30)
Tyronne Green (30)
Todd Herremans (34)
Josh LeRibeus (27)
Lance Louis (31)
Jacques McClendon (28)
Mike McGlynn (31)
Brandon Mosley (28)
Patrick Omameh (27)
Garrett Reynolds (29)
Geoff Schwartz (30)
Amini Silatolu (28)
Shelley Smith (29)
Dallas Thomas (27)
Johnnie Troutman (29)
Louis Vasquez (29)

Centers

Brian De La Puente (31)
Brian Folkerts (26)
Khaled Holmes (26)
Lemuel Jeanpierre (29)
Doug Legursky (30)
Will Montgomery (33)
Drew Nowak (26)
Mike Person (28)
Dallas Reynolds (32)
Trevor Robinson (26)
Lyle Sendlein (32)
James Stone (24)
Bryan Stork (25)
Fernando Veslasco (31)
Julian Vandervelde (29)
J.D. Walton (29)
Ryan Wendell (30)

4-3 Defensive Ends

Frank Alexander (27)
Kroy Biermann (31)
Alex Carrington (29)
Quinton Coples (26)
Demarcus Dobbs (29)
Larry English (30)
Wallace Gilberry (31)
Greg Hardy (28)
Chris McCain (24)
Damontre Moore (24)
Ropati Pitoitua (31)
George Selvie (29)
Matt Shaughnessy (30)
Josh Shirley (24)
Bjoern Werner (26)
C.J. Wilson (29)
Jarius Wynn (30)

3-4 Defensive Ends

Chris Canty (34)
Clifton Geathers (29)

Defensive Tackles

Brandon Bair (32)
Da’Quan Bowers (26)
Red Bryant (32)
Barry Cofield (32)
Dwan Edwards (35)
Kenrick Ellis (28)
Andre Fluellen (31)
Bruce Gaston (24)
Nick Hayden (30)
John Hughes (28)
Ishmaa’ily Kitchen (28)
Terrance Knighton (30)
Sammie Lee Hill (30)
Mike Martin (26)
Henry Melton (30)
C.J. Mosley (33)
Louis Nix (25)
Leon Orr (24)
Randy Starks (33)
Alameda Ta’amu (26)
Ian Williams (27)

4-3 Outside Linebackers

James Anderson (33)
Jayson DiManche (26)
Darius Fleming (27)
Khaseem Greene (27)
A.J. Hawk (32)
David Hawthorne (31)
Danny Lansanah (31)
Jamari Lattimore (28)
Travis Lewis (28)
Orie Lemon (29)
Nick Moody (26)
Eric Pinkins (25)
O’Brien Schofield (29)
Tony Steward (24)
Jason Trusnik (32)

3-4 Outside Linebackers

Jason Babin (36)
Adam Hayward (32)
Manny Lawson (32)
Dezman Moses (27)
Andy Mulumba (26)
Mike Neal (29)
Jonathan Newsome (25)
Calvin Pace (36)
Scott Solomon (28)
Lamarr Woodley (32)

Inside Linebackers

Jasper Brinkley (31)
Kavell Conner (29)
Shelby Harris (25)
Amarlo Herrera (25)
Nate Irving (28)
Nico Johnson (26)
James Laurinaitis (30)
Curtis Lofton (30)
Casey Matthews (27)
Joe Mays (31)
James-Michael Johnson (27)
Sio Moore (26)
DeMeco Ryans (32)
Andy Studebaker (31)
Justin Tuggle (26)
Uani ‘Unga (29)

Cornerbacks

Phillip Adams (28)
Cortez Allen (28)
Alan Ball (31)
Bill Bentley (27)
E.J. Biggers (29)
Zackary Bowman (32)
Jalil Brown (29)
Tarell Brown (31)
Brandon Browner (32)
Crezdon Butler (29)
Perrish Cox (29)
Antonio Cromartie (32)
Chris Culliver (28)
Pierre Desir (26)
Ras-I Dowling (28)
Greg Ducre (24)
Randall Evans (24)
Cortland Finnegan (32)
Jamell Fleming (27)
Charles Gaines (24)
Jayron Hosley (26)
Demontre Hurst (25)
Tramain Jacobs (24)
Charles James (26)
Keenan Lewis (30)
Nick Marshall (24)
Trumaine McBride (31)
Demetrius McCray (25)
Dee Milliner (25)
Chris Owens (30)
Shaun Prater (26)
Denzel Rice (23)
Cassius Vaughn (29)
Darrin Walls (28)
Melwin White (26)
Cary Williams (32))

Safeties

Antonio Allen (28)
Will Allen (34)
Larry Asante (28)
Dion Bailey (24)
Omar Bolden (27)
Terrence Brooks (25)
Sergio Brown (28)
Stevie Brown (29)
David Bruton (29)
Josh Bush (27)
Chris Clemons (31)
Craig Dahl (31)
Louis Delmas (29)
Josh Evans (25)
Dashon Goldson (32)
Winston Guy (26)
Will Hill (26)
Jaiquawn Jarrett (27)
Don Jones (26)
Jordan Kovacs (26)
Sherrod Martin (32)
Taylor Mays (28)
Danny McCray (28)
L.J. McCray (25)
Tevin McDonald (24)
Brandon Meriweather (32)
Rahim Moore (26)
William Moore (31)
Ryan Mundy (31)
Nick Perry (26)
Sean Richardson (26)
Antrel Rolle (34)
Brandian Ross (27)
Cooper Taylor (26)
Ross Ventrone (30)
Brock Vereen (24)
Jimmy Wilson (30)

Kickers

Josh Brown (37)
Travis Coons (24)
Jordan Gay (26)
Shayne Graham (38)
Garrett Hartley (30)
Zach Hocker (25)
Josh Scobee (34)
Blair Walsh (26)

Punters

Britton Colquitt (31)
Tim Masthay (29)

Long Snappers

Danny Aiken (28)
Clint Gresham (30)
Rick Lovato (24)

Over The Cap and FOX Sports were used in the creation of this post.

6 comments 2016 NFL Free Agents Newsstand PFR Originals

PFR Originals: 11/29/15 – 12/6/15

By Dallas Robinson | at December 6, 2015 4:01 pm

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Luke Adams went over the 2016 cap outlook for the two clubs that will square off on Monday Night Football tomorrow night — Washington (link) and the Cowboys (link). While Washington might need to release several notable players (Robert Griffin III, Pierre Garcon), Dallas figures to restructure the contract of Tony Romo once again.
Luke also rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links. Got a great football blog post that you want to see featured in next week’s Pigskin Links? Email it to Zach or tweet it to him: @ZachLinks.

0 comments PFR Originals

2016 Cap Outlook: Dallas Cowboys

By Luke Adams | at December 5, 2015 8:16 pm

Through the 2015 NFL season, Pro Football Rumors has been looking ahead to the 2016 offseason, gauging the salary cap situation for a number of teams with significant cap charges for next season. The cap for 2016 hasn’t been set yet, but we can still assess the salary commitments made by a club and determine whether or not that club will be in good financial shape going forward.

In addition to evaluating each team’s overall cap situation, we’ll focus in on a few key players who may be candidates to be extended, restructured, or released by their current teams. These lists aren’t comprehensive, and depending on a player’s 2015 performance and health, he could drop off one of these lists – or be added to one – as the season goes on. For now though, these are some players to watch.

Using data from Over The Cap, we’re making our way through NFL teams in order of total salary commitments for 2016. Today’s team is the Dallas Cowboys, who currently have the eighth-highest total for their ’16 cap.

Let’s dive in….

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

Tony Romo, QB: $20,835,000
Tyron Smith, LT: $14,000,000
Brandon Carr, CB: $13,817,000
Dez Bryant, WR: $13,000,000
Tyrone Crawford, DT: $8,750,000
Jason Witten, TE: $8,612,000
Orlando Scandrick, CB: $7,782,271
Sean Lee, LB: $5,950,000
Doug Free, RT: $5,500,000
Cole Beasley, WR: $3,356,000
Current 2016 cap number for top 51 players: $140,409,470

With the cap figures on extensions for Smith and Bryant set to increase significantly in 2016, many of the Cowboys’ top cap numbers belong to key contributors, which is generally a good thing. Still, it can sometimes provide a more difficult path to clearing room.

Consider the Cowboys’ division rivals in Washington, for instance — Scot McCloughan and co. can quickly clear $16MM+ in cap space by parting ways with Robert Griffin III in the offseason. Outside of Carr’s deal, the Cowboys don’t have many potential short-cuts to gaining big chunks of cap room this winter, so it’ll be interesting to see what moves the team makes if it needs extra space.

Candidates for extension:

Barry Church, S

Church isn’t the only player the Cowboys will consider extending this offseason. Travis Frederick, who currently rates as the league’s best center, according to Pro Football Focus’ grades, will be extension-eligible, and the team will certainly try to lock up its Pro Bowl center sooner or later. Church, however, is the only obvious extension candidate whose cap number could be reduced with a new deal.

Of course, the Cowboys’ ability to get something done with Church without increasing his 2016 cap charge will depend on whether the two sides can agree on his value. I wouldn’t consider Church one of the NFL’s top safeties, but he has started every game for Dallas since the start of the 2013 season, and his box-score stats have been impressive — he averaged 122 tackles in 2013 and 2014, and has racked up another 78 this year. If the Cowboys think they can extend him without giving him a significant raise, that would be a deal worth exploring.

Candidates for restructure:

Tyrone Crawford, DT
Tony Romo, QB
Orlando Scandrick, CB
Tyron Smith, LT
Jason Witten, TE

The most ideal contracts for restructuring, from a team’s perspective, are ones without much future dead money, and ones where the cap hits in future seasons don’t increase too significantly. The deals for Crawford, Romo, and Smith don’t exactly fit that bill, but the sheer size of them makes them logical candidates to be reworked if the Cowboys need to create significant cap savings. Dallas could clear close to $5MM in cap space by restructuring Crawford’s contract, nearly $6MM by restructuring Romo’s, and over $7MM by restructuring Smith’s.

Still, if they can avoid it, the Cowboys would be wise to avoid reworking those deals and pushing more dead money to future years. Romo’s, in particular, is starting to look unwieldy, and even if owner Jerry Jones thinks his quarterback still has four good years left in him – which is debatable – the team would be wise to minimize the risk on those later seasons as much as possible.

Smith’s deal is a solid candidate for a restructure, and so is Scandrick’s, which has a significantly higher cap charge in 2016 than in future seasons. Witten’s is a trickier case — the veteran tight end had 703 receiving yards in 2014, the lowest mark of his career besides his 2003 rookie season, and he’s on track for about the same number this year.

With his production on the decline, Witten’s cap hit will rise to $8.6MM in 2016. The club could ask him to take a pay cut on his $6.5MM base salary, perhaps giving him the opportunity to earn back some of that amount in incentives, but given how much he has meant to the franchise on and off the field over the last decade, that may be a conversation the Cowboys prefer to postpone for another year. A restructure could accomplish that.

Candidates for pay cut or release:

Brandon Carr, CB
Andrew Gachkar, LB

As noted earlier, Carr seems extremely unlikely to return to the Cowboys with the Cowboys’ third-highest cap number next year. Of course, I wouldn’t have thought he’d still have the team’s second-highest cap hit in 2015 either, so I can’t say with 100% certainty that the Cowboys will adjust his deal or cut him. But the club’s leverage will certainly increase this winter — if Dallas had parted ways with Carr last winter, it would have created less than $1MM in cap savings. This time around, the team could clear nearly $6.4MM from its cap by releasing him, so he’ll be under more pressure to accept a reduced salary if he wants to remain in Dallas.

As for Gachkar, his $1.9MM cap number isn’t exactly a huge drain on the Cowboys’ 2016 cap, and we usually focus on players with cap hits of $2MM+ in this space. But given how little he has played on defense for the Cowboys this year, Gachkar looks like a release candidate, unless the team is fine with paying him that salary for his contributions on special teams. Dallas could create $1.3MM in cap savings by cutting him.

Contract information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.

2 comments 2016 Cap Outlook Dallas Cowboys PFR Originals

2016 Cap Outlook: Washington

By Luke Adams | at December 3, 2015 9:05 pm

Using data from Over The Cap, we’re making our way through NFL teams in order of total salary commitments for 2016. Today’s team is Washington, which currently has the seventh-highest total for its ’16 cap.

Let’s dive in….

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

Robert Griffin III, QB: $16,155,000
Trent Williams, LT: $10,700,000
Pierre Garcon, WR: $10,200,000
Chris Culliver, CB: $9,250,000
DeSean Jackson, WR: $9,250,000
Jason Hatcher, DL: $8,750,000
Ryan Kerrigan, OLB: $8,450,000
Dashon Goldson, S: $8,000,000
DeAngelo Hall, DB: $5,062,500
Perry Riley, ILB: $5,049,804
Current 2016 cap number for top 51 players: $143,859,037

Washington, like many NFL teams, has a quarterback atop its list of cap commitments for 2016. Unlike most of those other clubs though, Washington’s QB almost certainly won’t be with the team next year, and removing him from the books for ’16 won’t leave any dead money on the cap, since his salary is currently guaranteed for injury only.

Still, releasing Griffin likely won’t be the only cap-clearing move required for Washington in the offseason, since the team’s current starting quarterback isn’t under contract yet for 2016. Depending on how much it costs to re-sign Kirk Cousins, the club could end up using a good chunk of that RGIII money on Cousins instead.

Candidates for extension:

Chris Baker, D
DeSean Jackson, WR

While Cousins is a candidate for an extension, this section focuses on players who are under contract for 2016 already, whose cap numbers could potentially be reduced a little by extending them beyond next season.

Jackson is an interesting case, since his current deal features a 2017 salary, but ’17 is essentially a dummy year, since the contract is set to void after 2016. The speedy wideout has been injured this season, and hasn’t been a huge part of the offense even when he’s been healthy, so perhaps Washington won’t want to invest any additional money in him. But reworking his deal to keep him under contract for an extra couple years could reduce his 2016 cap hit without the team taking on much long-term risk. While there are a number of different ways the club could go with Jackson, I expect he’ll be back for at least one more year, since there will still be $6MM+ in dead money left on his deal.

As for Baker, it doesn’t seem like that long ago that he signed a three-year contract extension, but 2016 will be the final year of that agreement. He’s still young and productive enough to warrant another extension, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see Washington let him play out the final year of his contract before making a decision.

Candidates for restructure:

Chris Culliver, CB
Shawn Lauvao, G

Like center Kory Lichtensteiger, Lauvao opened the year as a starter on Washington’s offensive line, but wasn’t among the league’s top interior linemen, and eventually landed on IR. Both of those players will have cap hits in the $4-5MM range in 2016, which isn’t a significant price to pay for a starting offensive lineman. But those are high prices for backups, so if the club has other options it likes better, it could try to rework both deals — particularly Lauvao’s. A pay cut may also be in play.

Culliver, meanwhile, isn’t going anywhere after signing a long-term free agent contract earlier this year, since his 2016 salary is fully guaranteed. Beyond ’16 though, there’s only $2.5MM in dead money – and no guaranteed salary – left on the pact, so restructuring it to reduce next year’s cap charge wouldn’t put Washington in a bad spot for future seasons.

Candidates for pay cut or release:

Pierre Garcon, WR
Dashon Goldson, S
Robert Griffin III, QB
DeAngelo Hall, DB
Jason Hatcher, DL
Perry Riley, ILB
Andre Roberts, WR

Griffin is the most logical release candidate here, but there’s no shortage of them for Washington, giving the team plenty of flexibility heading into the offseason. If the club needs the cap room, it could take an approach similar to the one taken by the Saints last winter, when New Orleans asked a handful of players to take pay cuts to avoid being released — some accepted those cuts, while others were dropped.

As we weigh the pros and cons for keeping the non-RGIII players on this list, let’s start in the secondary, where Goldson and Hall are the candidates to be cut. The Buccaneers’ willingness to pay a portion of Goldson’s salary allowed Washington to acquire the safety in a trade earlier this year, but with his salary set to increase to a non-guaranteed $7.5MM next year, the team will be less willing to pay up — especially for a player who currently ranks 83rd of 84 qualified safeties, per Pro Football Focus.

Could Hall step into Goldson’s starting safety spot? Maybe, but Washington may prefer to identify a younger, cheaper replacement, rather than counting on a high-priced veteran like Hall to make the transition from cornerback at this stage in his career.

At the wide receiver position, Garcon has posted pedestrian numbers since racking up 113 catches in 2013, and while that can be partially attributed to inconsistent quarterback play, you’d still expect a little more out of a player with a $10MM+ cap hit. The club could create $8MM in cap savings by cutting him, and another $3MM by releasing Roberts, who has caught just 11 balls this season.

Elsewhere, Hatcher and Riley are two players who could return in 2016 if Washington isn’t short on cap space. Neither player has quite lived up to expectations since they signed their current contracts in March 2014, but Hatcher has been decent in the middle, and Riley has looked a bit better in recent weeks. The team would create about $4MM in cap savings by releasing either player, so that will have to be a consideration, even if they ultimately remain on the roster.

Contract information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.

2 comments 2016 Cap Outlook PFR Originals Washington Commanders

PFR Originals: 11/22/15 – 11/29/15

By Rob DiRe | at November 29, 2015 2:51 pm

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Luke Adams took a look at the 2016 cap outlook for the Ravens. The big question the team faces is how to restructure Joe Flacco‘s cap hit in order to clear some room for free agency. Will Hill is also a candidate for an extension, and Dennis Pitta is likely to either be cut or have his salary reduced.
In our Community Tailgate series, we post topics for discussion and encourage readers to share their thoughts in the comments section. The issues covered this week:
- Connor Byrne wondered what the chances were that either Julio Jones or Antonio Brown could threaten Calvin Johnson‘s single-season receiving yardage record of 1,964? (link)
- How will the NFC playoff picture shake out? (link)

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2016 Cap Outlook: Baltimore Ravens

By Luke Adams | at November 28, 2015 11:40 am

Using data from Over The Cap, we’re making our way through NFL teams in order of total salary commitments for 2016. Today’s team is the Ravens, who currently have the sixth-highest total for their ’16 cap.

Let’s dive in….

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

Joe Flacco, QB: $28,550,000
Jimmy Smith, CB: $9,600,000
Lardarius Webb, CB: $9,500,000
Eugene Monroe, LT: $8,700,000
Marshal Yanda, RG: $7,985,882
Terrell Suggs, OLB: $7,450,000
Elvis Dumervil, OLB: $7,375,000
Dennis Pitta, TE: $7,200,000
Jeremy Zuttah, C: $4,607,206
Will Hill, S: $4,590,000
Current 2016 cap number for top 51 players: $144,588,978

Flacco’s cap hit for 2016 is so massive compared to the rest of the Ravens’ figures that the next three highest cap numbers combined don’t even match it. There’s little question that Flacco’s deal must be addressed this offseason, but the fact that Baltimore doesn’t have any other eight-digit salaries for 2016 is a plus. It gives the team the flexibility to explore a couple different approaches with Flacco — either reduce his cap charge for 2016 significantly, potentially creating all the space you need for the year, or only reduce it a little, avoiding increasing his future cap numbers too much.

Candidates for extension:

Joe Flacco, QB
Will Hill, S

If he played any other position, Flacco would be a candidate for a restructure, rather than an extension, since he’ll still have three years left on his contract heading into the winter. But with cap hits of $28.55MM, $31.15MM, and $24.75MM, the best way to make the contract manageable in the future for the Ravens is to tack on a couple extra years, spreading a new signing bonus out over the longest stretch possible.

Flacco’s torn ACL will make negotiations a little more interesting this offseason, but we’ve seen quarterbacks return successfully from that injury in the past, and it’s not as if Flacco relies heavily on his ability to run. The veteran signal-caller is currently set to earn a base salary of $18MM next year, so – between guaranteed salary and bonus money – the Ravens will have to exceed that figure on any new deal. It’ll be an interesting situation to watch.

Elsewhere, Hill is on track to earn a fraction of what Flacco will make in 2016, but his performance in the secondary since joining the Ravens has been excellent. He’ll be due for a raise, so it might be tricky for Baltimore to lower his $4.59MM cap number at all, but some creative financing would at least help the team avoid increasing that figure.

Candidates for restructure:

Daryl Smith, ILB
Terrell Suggs, OLB
Lardarius Webb, CB

Out of this trio of players, Webb – who has been solid, but not spectacular this season – looks like the most logical candidate for a restructure — with Jimmy Smith‘s extension set to kick in, I don’t know that the Ravens will want to pay a $5.5MM salary for Webb, whose $9.5MM cap hit projects to be the team’s third-highest. Giving Webb a modest signing bonus, plus the ability to earn that full $5.5MM through bonuses and incentives rather than a guaranteed salary, might make sense for Baltimore.

As for Suggs, he’s 33 years old and will be coming off a torn Achilles, so there’s a good chance he won’t be the same player he was before the injury. But the dead money left on his deal ($8.85MM) outweighs his 2016 cap hit ($7.45MM), so if they think he has something left in the tank, the Ravens will likely explore a restructure rather than considering releasing him.

The third veteran defender listed here, Smith might have the easiest contract to restructure, since it doesn’t feature nearly as much prorated bonus money as Webb’s or Suggs’. In each of the next two seasons, Smith is owed a $3.5MM base salary and has a $4.375MM cap hit. The club may not require the modest savings that restructuring Smith’s contract would provide, but doing so could free up about $1.25MM in space for 2016, without creating major problems for 2017.

Candidates for pay cut or release:

Kyle Arrington, CB
Chris Canty, DE
Matt Elam, S
Justin Forsett, RB
Dennis Pitta, TE
Steve Smith, WR

It’s worth noting that just because a player is a “candidate” to take a pay cut or be released, that certainly doesn’t mean it’ll happen. But it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Pitta avoids that fate — 2015 was his second straight lost season, and his ongoing hip issues make a comeback an uphill battle. Even if the Ravens do want to keep him on the roster, they won’t want him at his $5MM salary, which is non-guaranteed.

Two other offensive playmakers currently on the injured reserve list earned spots on this list, but if Smith wants to continue his playing career, the Ravens will almost certainly welcome him back for the last year of his current contract — he and his $3MM base salary would only be removed from the roster if he decides to retire. Forsett is a good bet to be back as well, but if Javorius Allen excels down the stretch, the Ravens would have to at least briefly think about moving on from the veteran, who will also make a $3MM salary and wasn’t as explosive in 2015 as he was in 2014.

Canty, Arrington, and Elam are all on the books for cap hits between $2-3MM, so cutting them wouldn’t create a ton of savings. Canty has been effective enough that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Baltimore keep him at his current price for one more year, though Arrington has seen his playing time slashed in recent weeks and may be expendable. Given the extra draft picks they always have at their disposal, the Ravens could identify younger, cheaper replacements for those veterans.

Elam, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick entering the fourth year of his rookie contract, but he struggled in his first two seasons and missed his third with a bicep injury. While he’s cheap enough that the Ravens could keep him around for one more season and turn down his fifth-year option for 2017, he has been surpassed on the depth chart, and his upside is dwindling.

Contract information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.

1 comment 2016 Cap Outlook Baltimore Ravens PFR Originals

Community Tailgate: Jones, Brown Chasing Yardage Record

By Connor J. Byrne | at November 27, 2015 6:59 pm

The Lions’ Calvin Johnson had the most prolific season ever in terms of receiving yards in 2012, setting the all-time record with 1,964. That record could be in jeopardy this year, ESPN’s Michael Rothstein noted earlier this week, as the Falcons’ Julio Jones and the Steelers’ Antonio Brown are doing their best to outdo Johnson’s 2012 total. Jones leads the league with 1,189 yards, while Brown is close behind with 1,141. Johnson averaged just under 123 yards per game during his record-setting campaign, so Jones (118.9) and Brown (114.1) will both need to pick up their respective paces.

What’s unlikely to help Jones going forward is having to face NFC South rival Carolina twice in his final six games. The Panthers presently boast Football Outsiders’ top-ranked pass defense in the NFC and are led by shutdown cornerback Josh Norman. How good is Norman? As Pro Football Focus’ Sam Monson tweeted Thursday, opposing quarterbacks would be better off throwing passes directly into the ground than testing him. That certainly doesn’t bode well for Jones. On the other hand, Jones still has a pair of games left against the awful pass defenses of the Jaguars and Saints. That should help balance out having to deal with Norman two times, but it might not be enough.

Brown, like Jones, has some less-than-ideal opponents left on his team’s schedule. It starts Sunday against the Seahawks, who allow the fewest passing yards per game in the NFC. The Steelers also have a game against the Broncos, who are atop the league in pass defense by both traditional stats and Football Outsiders’. Luckily for Brown, three of the Steelers’ other four opponents – the Colts, Ravens and Browns – have bottom-feeding pass defenses. Further, for now at least, three-time Pro Bowl quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is healthy. Roethlisberger has been shelved with multiple injuries this year, which has hurt Brown’s numbers. Brown was without Roethlisberger for all of October and averaged a pedestrian (by his standards) 58.75 yards per game. In games that Roethlisberger has at least appeared in this season, Brown has racked up a ridiculous 151 yards per contest. It’s a lot to ask, of course, but 151 yards per matchup during the last six weeks would give Brown over 2,000 yards for the season – enough to unseat Johnson.

What do you think? Is Johnson’s record in jeopardy? Regardless, how many yards will Jones and Brown finish with this year?

Weigh in below in the comments section to let us know your thoughts!

1 comment Community Tailgate PFR Originals

Community Tailgate: NFC Playoff Picture

By Luke Adams | at November 24, 2015 10:29 am

Last week, we explored the AFC playoff picture, which appeared cloudy at the time and hasn’t exactly cleared up any further in the days since then. Things are perhaps a little less murky in the NFC, where there are at least two clear contenders for the Wild Card spots, but with six weeks still left in the season, there are plenty of questions still to be answered.

The 10-0 Panthers have all but locked up a postseason berth in some form or another, and the 8-2 Cardinals, barring a total collapse, will join them in the playoffs. In the NFC North, the Packers and Vikings are tied at 7-3, putting them in good position to earn playoff spots as the division winner and Wild Card team, in some order.

Green Bay and Minnesota aren’t 100% locks though, and neither are the 6-4 Falcons, who are currently holding the second Wild Card spot despite losing three consecutive games. The Giants, Buccaneers, and Seahawks are all lurking at 5-5, and there are several 4-6 teams that shouldn’t be ruled out of the picture quite yet.

Of course, one of those 5-5 teams – the Giants – leads the NFC East, where no teams are above .500 at the moment. That division is so bunched up that the 3-7 Cowboys, who lost seven straight contests in Tony Romo‘s absence, are a solid dark horse candidate to ultimately snatch the East crown from New York, Philadelphia, and Washington.

What do you think? Which six teams will make the postseason in the NFC? Will the defending NFC champs in Seattle end up nabbing a Wild Card spot? Will the first team to nine wins take the NFC East?

Weigh in below in the comments section to let us know your thoughts!

12 comments Community Tailgate PFR Originals

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Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

Candidates for extension:

Candidates for restructure:

Candidates for pay cut or release:

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

Candidates for extension:

Candidates for restructure:

Candidates for pay cut or release:

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

Candidates for extension:

Candidates for restructure:

Candidates for pay cut or release: