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2015 Release Candidates: AFC West

July 25th, 2015 at 7:34pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Most clubs have fairly set rosters at this point, as OTA, minicamp, and preseason performances won’t do much to alter roster composition. The majority of key releases came in March, but there are still several scenarios where certain contributors could lose their roster spot in the coming months. For the most part, we’ll focus on situations where the cap savings would be in excess of $1MM.

Because free agency has already passed, financial ramifications won’t play a huge role in these decisions; there aren’t a ton of high-profile free agents on which to spend that saved money, so these calls will mostly be made based on performance. However, any cap space saved through these potential releases could be rolled over into 2016, so that’s something clubs have to consider.

We’ve already looked at the AFC East, NFC East, AFC North, NFC North, AFC South, and NFC South, so let’s dive into the AFC West…

Denver Broncos:

  • Andre Caldwell, WR: The Broncos have lost Eric Decker and Wes Welker in consecutive seasons, but that hasn’t led to an uptick in production for Caldwell, who has caught just 21 balls for less than 300 yards over the past two years. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders will reprise their roles as Denver’s top two receivers in 2015, but Sanders will move to the slot in three-receiver sets, leaving unanswered the question of who will play the outside in such formations. The odds-on favorite is 2014 second-round pick Cody Latimer, who not only saw first-time reps while Thomas was away from camp as a frachise-tagged player, but received praise from head coach Gary Kubiak. So where does that leave Caldwell? Mostly as a viable fourth receiver and special teamer — he played on more than 40% of Denver’s ST snaps last year — who might not be worth his $1.55MM cap charge. But the Broncos have little to no depth behind him at receiver, so he probably sticks. Prediction: not released.

Kansas City Chiefs:

  • Chase Daniel, QB: The Chiefs are scheduled to spend the third-most on quarterbacks in 2015 — Alex Smith will only be the 10th-highest paid QB this season, meaning that positional spending is driven in large part by Chase Daniel. The league’s highest-paid backup, the 28-year-old Daniel will count for $4.8MM against Kansas City’s cap. He’s earning similar money to that of a third-tier starter, and given that he’s attempted fewer than 60 passes over the past two seasons, it might have made sense for the team to go cheaper at the No. 2 spot. But given that it’s almost time for training camp and the Chiefs aren’t in dire financial straits, they’ll probably just keep Daniel around to act as top-notch insurance in the event of a Smith injury. Prediction: not released.
  • Derrick Johnson, LB: Johnson, 32, missed the majority of last year after tearing his Achilles, and given that none his $5.25MM cap figure is guaranteed, it’s conceivable that the Chiefs could move on. But that probably won’t happen for two reasons. First, club owner Clark Hunt said in March that Johnson is safe. “There will be a point in time where we address [his contract],” Hunt said. “But it just hasn’t been germane to this point.” Second, Johnson is still a solid player, and Kansas City will need his contributions if it hopes to improve upon its No. 19 DVOA ranking. The Chiefs navigated through the offseason despite their salary cap troubles, and now have nearly $9MM in space, so clearing Johnson’s money isn’t completely necessary. Prediction: not released.

Oakland Raiders:

  • Austin Howard, OL: After spending two years as the Jets’ starting right tackle, Howard signed a five-year, $30MM deal to join Oakland prior to last season and promptly moved to right guard. He’s projected to move back to tackle for the upcoming season, with veteran Khalif Barnes taking over at RG, but the right side of the Raiders’ line is still unsettled. Third-year pro Menelik Watson is a candidate to edge out Howard for the right tackle job, and if that happens, Howard could conceivably shift back to guard, or be moved to the bench. Of course, a final option would be for the club to release him, saving $5MM tis season. But Oakland would incur more than $4MM in 2016 dead money by doing so, and though Howard’s play was poor last year, the Raiders aren’t in any position to be casting off players who possess any modicum of talent. Prediction: not released.

San Diego Chargers:

  • Donald Brown, RB: Brown’s three-year, $10.5MM ($4MM guaranteed) deal with the Chargers already looked like an overpay when it was signed, and following Brown’s dreadful 2014 season, the pact looks even worse. Following injuries to Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead, Brown had an opportunity to take the starting running back job, but was wholly ineffective, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry on 85 attempts. Brown, 28, is an effective pass-blocker, but with first-rounder Melvin Gordon in tow, Woodhead expected to regain his third-down role, and Brandon Oliver coming off an impressive year-end run, Brown doesn’t figure to have role. San Diego can save $3MM by releasing him, and would carry just over $1MM in dead money. Prediction: released.
  • John Phillips, TE: The 28-year-old Phillips didn’t see the field much in 2014 while acting as San Diego’s third tight end — he played on only 202 snaps, but still managed to post a disappointing -7.0 grade per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). The Chargers could clear out Phillips’ $1.45MM base salary by cutting him, but with Antonio Gates suspended for the first four games of the season, Phillips will probably be back to serve as the club’s inline tight end while Ladarius Green acts the move option. Prediction: not released.

Offseason In Review: Indianapolis Colts

July 24th, 2015 at 8:54pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

The 2014 campaign ended horrifically for the Colts, whose season came crashing down in a 45-7 loss to the Patriots in the AFC championship game. In response, Indy spent the offseason adding multiple established veterans on both sides of the ball in hopes of overthrowing the Pats and earning a Super Bowl trip for the first time since the 2009-10 season.

Notable signings:

The Colts had the NFL’s third-ranked offense last year, but that belied a subpar rushing attack that finished 22nd in yardage and 25th in per-attempt average. Their most productive back, Ahmad Bradshaw, suffered a season-ending broken fibula in November. Bradshaw was hardly a workhorse when healthy, though, exceeding double-digit carries just four times in 10 games. Enter Frank Gore, the longtime 49er whom the Colts signed to a three-year, $12MM deal in free agency. Gore gives the Colts something they’ve been missing for a while – a durable, productive back. Despite his advanced age relative to the position, the 32-year-old Gore’s production certainly hasn’t stalled. In 2014, the 10-year veteran appeared in all 16 games, surpassed the 250-carry mark, and rushed for 1,100-plus yards. It was the fourth straight season in which Gore accomplished all three of those feats simultaneously. Moreover, he has never amassed fewer than 4.1 yards per carry in a season – another welcome change for a Colts team whose previous leading rusher, Trent Richardson, totaled a paltry 3.3 yards per attempt last year.

The Colts’ other big offensive move in free agency was to further beef up an Andrew Luck-led passing game that led the league in yardage last year. Indy signed wideout Andre Johnson, who had been with AFC South rival Houston his entire career (since 2003), to a three-year, $21MM contract. Like Gore, the 34-year-old Johnson is on the wrong end of the aging curve, but he also remains a viable weapon. Johnson caught 85 passes last season, though he averaged a meager 11.0 yards per reception (his lowest total since 2005) and racked up only three touchdowns. Bear in mind, though, that Johnson isn’t far removed from a two-year stretch that saw him haul in 221 catches and over 3,000 yards from 2012-13. Additionally, Johnson stands to benefit from the presence of Luck, who is far more talented than any quarterback he played with in Houston. In Johnson, Luck should have another solid target to accompany T.Y. Hilton, Indy’s undisputed No. 1 receiver, first-round wideout Phillip Dorsett and tight end Coby Fleener.

Defensively, the Colts finished a respectable 11th in the league last season. However, the Patriots exposed them twice – once in a 42-20 November shellacking and in the aforementioned AFC title game blowout. New England rushed for a ridiculous 423 yards in those games, and quarterback Tom Brady was basically untouched in both matchups (Indy sacked him once in total). The Colts responded to the latter issue by signing a couple of vets in linebacker Trent Cole (two years, $14MM) and lineman Kendall Langford (four years, $17.2MM).

The 32-year-old Cole added 6.5 sacks for the Eagles last season, giving him 85.5 during the decade he spent in Philadelphia, and Pro Football Focus ranked him a solid 12th out of 46 qualifying OLBs (subscription required) for his pass rushing.

As for Langford, the most impressive fact about the seven-year veteran’s career is that he never missed a game in either of his previous stops (Miami and St. Louis). He’s just two years removed from a career-high five-sack season and thinks the best is yet to come as part of the Colts’ 3-4 defense.

“I feel like I’m back at home in a 3-4 scheme,” Langford told the Colts’ official website last month. “I’m excited about it.”

Head coach Chuck Pagano echoed Langford’s sentiment.

“Kendall Langford, you guys are going to be surprised,” Pagano said. “You think we just brought in a run stopper, but he’s shown in some of these 11-on-11 drills that he’s got some pass rush capabilities, will get push inside.”

The Colts’ pass rush looks better on paper with the acquisitions of Cole and Langford and the return of linebacker Robert Mathis – who led the league with 19.5 sacks in 2013 before missing all of last year with a torn Achilles’. While the Colts did rank ninth in sacks in 2014, they lacked fearsome pass rushers and had to rely too much on blitzing to generate pressure.

Elsewhere on defense, the Colts retained three of their own key players – linebacker Jerrell Freeman, cornerback Darius Butler and Pro Bowl safety Mike Adams – and signed ex-Broncos LB Nate Irving. The Colts hope the 27-year-old Irving, whom PFF ranked 12th among 60 qualifying 3-4 ILBs against opposing ground games last year (subscription required), can help improve their 18th-ranked run defense and make less them less vulnerable against teams like the Patriots.

Notable losses:

The Colts said goodbye to some recognizable names during the offseason, including Reggie Wayne – one of the franchise’s all-time best players – but general manager Ryan Grigson adequately replaced most of them. Johnson, Dorsett and second-year man Donte Moncrief will do more than enough at wideout to make the losses of Wayne and Hakeem Nicks easy to swallow. If his career is any indication, Gore will be a major improvement over both Bradshaw and Richardson. Langford, on the other hand, has his work cut out for him in grabbing the reins along the D-line from the retired Cory Redding and the released Ricky Jean-Francois, who combined for 1,300-plus snaps last year. Redding was particularly impressive in 2014, appearing in over 70 percent of Indy’s defensive snaps and drawing significant praise from PFF for his play.

Trades:

  • Acquired a 2015 third-round pick (No. 65; CB D’Joun Smith) and a 2015 fourth-round pick (No. 109; S Clayton Geathers) from the Buccaneers in exchange for a 2015 second-round pick (No. 61; G Ali Marpet) and a 2015 fourth-round pick (No. 128).
  • Acquired a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 151; DT David Parry) from the 49ers in exchange for a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 165; P Bradley Pinion) and a 2015 seventh-round pick (No. 244; OL Trenton Brown).

Extensions/Restructures:

Draft picks:

  • 1-29: Phillip Dorsett, WR (Miami): Signed
  • 3-65: D’Joun Smith, CB (Florida Atlantic): Signed
  • 3-93: Henry Anderson, DE (Stanford): Signed
  • 4-109: Clayton Geathers, S (UCF): Signed
  • 5-151: David Parry, DT (Stanford): Signed
  • 6-205: Josh Robinson, RB (Mississippi State): Signed
  • 6-207: Amarlo Herrera, LB (Georgia): Signed
  • 7-255: Denzelle Good, T (Mars Hill): Signed

The Colts pulled off a surprise in the first round when they added yet another receiver in Dorsett, an ex-Miami Hurricane who tries to make up for less-than-ideal size (5-foot-10, 185 pounds) with explosiveness (a 40-yard dash time of 4.29, 24.2 yards per catch in college). Dorsett is similar to the 5-9, 178-pound Hilton in stature and style, and one wonders if the Colts chose the former as a potential long-term replacement for the latter. Hilton could potentially depart Indy as a free agent next offseason, which would leave the Colts looking for a star-caliber, field-stretching wideout. Regardless of what happens with Hilton, the Colts hope Dorsett can be just that, and offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton expects him to make an immediate impact.

“His play speed is exceptional,” Hamilton told Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star (Twitter link). “We can attack the field vertically.”

Indy also may have added another couple immediate impact types in a pair of third-round picks, cornerback D’Joun Smith and defensive end Henry Anderson.

Smith, who intercepted nine passes at Florida Atlantic (including seven in 2013), gives the Colts depth behind Vontae Davis, Darius Butler and Greg Toler, and could wrest playing time from the latter two if they don’t improve on last year’s performance. Both Butler and Toler surrendered ratings of over 102 to opposing quarterbacks, according to PFF – which ranked Butler 67th and Toler 99th, respectively, out of 108 qualifying corners (subscription required).

If Smith’s anywhere near as good as he is confident, he’ll be a huge pickup for the Colts.

“Under the right tutelage and the right coach that’s going to make my technique even better, I’m probably going to be the best cornerback to play the game,” Smith told the Colts’ website in May.

As for Anderson, the Colts picked the ex-Stanford Cardinal 93rd overall after a standout college career (first-team All-Pac-12 in 2014).

“He’s what you’re looking for at end in this defense,” Grigson said, according to Colts.com.  “I know we’re going to have him for a long time.

For his part, Anderson said in May that he’s “really excited about coming in and providing as much help as possible to the defense.”

Given the losses of Redding and Jean-Francois, Anderson is likely to have the opportunity this year to quickly become a fixture along Indy’s D-line.

Other:

  • Exercised 2016 fifth-year option for QB Andrew Luck ($16.155MM).
  • Signed 10 players to reserve/futures contracts.
  • Signed 15 undrafted rookie free agents following the draft.

The Colts made the no-brainer decision to keep Luck in the fold for at least two more seasons, exercising his fifth-year option for 2016. The question is when, not if, they’ll ink him to a deal that keeps him a Colt for the duration of his career. Since the Colts chose Luck with the No. 1 pick in the 2012 draft, he has started all 52 of their games (playoffs included), led them to three straight double-digit-win outputs, and thrown for 86 touchdowns and nearly 13,000 yards in the regular season. He’ll be paid handsomely for his performance and status as the face of Indy’s franchise, and ESPN’s Mike Wells wrote earlier this week that the Colts and Luck will get to work on a contract extension after the upcoming season.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. Vontae Davis, CB: $11,250,000
  2. Andre Johnson, WR: $7,500,000
  3. Robert Mathis, OLB: $7,470,586
  4. Anthony Castonzo, LT: $7,438,000
  5. Arthur Jones, DL: $7,100,000
  6. Andrew Luck, QB: $7,034,363
  7. Trent Cole, OLB: $6,953,125
  8. Gosder Cherilus, RT: $6,900,000
  9. Greg Toler, CB: $5,833,334
  10. D’Qwell Jackson, LB: $5,750,000

After a productive offseason, the Colts look like a better team than the one that made the final four last year. At the very least, barring injuries, their two-year reign atop the AFC South should extend to a third season. That would mean a fourth straight playoff berth, which could lead to a third consecutive January confrontation with the Patriots – who have humiliated the Colts in back-to-back postseasons.

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

Community Tailgate: Should Rice Get Second Chance?

July 24th, 2015 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

We’re still several weeks away from the start of battles on the NFL gridiron, but there’s no offseason when it comes to debate amongst fans. Earlier this summer, we launched a new series here at PFR that will be known as the Community Tailgate. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. Every weekday, we’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

Today, we’ll be addressing a report from Ed Werder of ESPN.com, which suggests that running back Ray Rice and some of his supporters – including former Buccaneers head coach Greg Schiano – have been contacting NFL teams in the hopes of landing Rice a job for training camp.

According to Werder, one club was seriously considering signing Rice, but team ownership “became uncomfortable” late in the process due to public relations concerns. Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun passes along a similar report, tweeting that there are teams with interest in Rice, but owners are reluctant to sign off on any deal.

Those P.R. concerns stem from a leaked Atlantic City hotel elevator video that shows Rice hitting his then-fiancée and knocking her unconscious. The recording earned Rice his release from the Ravens, a suspension from the NFL, and so far has cost him a chance to catch on with another team in the league.

While Rice’s actions were appalling, and I can’t blame a team for not wanting to bring him aboard, it’s fair to wonder if the existence of a video in his case has resulted in him being blackballed from the league. Rice isn’t the first NFL player to strike a woman, but with no video evidence in most cases, players have often received second and third chances from NFL teams.

Just this offseason, Greg Hardy was found guilty in a non-jury domestic trial, but after reaching a plea deal, the defensive end signed a lucrative one-year pact with the Cowboys. If there had been a video of the alleged incident involving Hardy, he may not have received that second chance. Of course, in Hardy’s case, it’s worth noting that his performance on the field was still exceptional when we last saw him, which isn’t necessarily true of Rice.

What do you think? Does Rice, who has expressed more remorse than most NFL players involved in domestic incidents, deserve a second chance? Should a club give him an opportunity to try to earn a roster spot? Or is it entirely reasonable for the league’s 32 teams to pass on him, taking into account not only that elevator video, but also his advancing age and declining performance? Weigh in below in the comment section with your thoughts!

Offseason In Review: Houston Texans

July 23rd, 2015 at 7:56pm CST by Zachary Links

After going 9-7 in 2014, the Texans have been widely praised for their offseason moves. Did they do enough to establish themselves as the favorites in the AFC South?

Notable signings:

One of the Texans’ top priorities this offseason was retaining cornerback Kareem Jackson and they got that accomplished days before the start of free agency. Jackson landed himself at number 21 on Pro Football Rumors Top 50 Free Agents, and figured to be highly sought after as one of the top free agent corners on the market. The Texans selected Jackson 20th overall out of Alabama in the 2010 NFL Draft. He struggled during his first two NFL seasons, but improved and was considered the team’s top corner last season, surpassing veteran Johnathan Joseph. The advanced metrics at Pro Football Focus (subscription required) had Jackson rated as the eleventh-best corner in the league last season, putting him ahead of notables such as Rashean Mathis, Brandon Flowers, Aqib Talib, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

The Texans also got a deal done with offensive tackle Derek Newton before March 10th. The former seventh-round pick has established himself as one of the most reliable members of the Texans offense, as he’s started 46 of a possible 48 games since 2012 (the two missed games were a result of a knee injury). Newton wasn’t rated favorably by Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required) during his first two years as a starter, but the statistics favored the 27-year-old’s performance this past season. Newton ranked 19th among 84 offensive tackle candidates, and his run blocking skills earned him the fourth-best ranking for that particular attribute. However, his pass blocking rating left some to be desired, as he finished in the bottom half of the league in that ranking.

Houston’s defensive line will feature young star J.J. Watt and a possible rising young(er) star in Jadeveon Clowney. This offseason, the Texans added some veteran leadership to the mix. The Texans inked Vince Wilfork to a two-year deal in March after the Pats declined his option. Wilfork, 33, spent all previous 11 years of his NFL career in New England, playing 158 regular season games for the Pats, and starting 148 of those. Second-year pro Louis Nix may be the future for the Texans at nose tackle, but Wilfork represents a very nice stopgap option until Nix is ready to assume the role.

After going through three starting quarterbacks in 2014, the Texans badly needed to make a change under center. Coach Bill O’Brien & Co. are hoping that Brian Hoyer can be that difference maker. Hoyer, 29, saw his first extended run as a starter in 2014, and though his overall numbers – including a 55.3% completion percentage, 12 touchdowns to 13 interceptions, and a 76.5 passer rating – weren’t overly impressive, he led the Browns to a 7-6 record in his starts before giving way to Johnny Manziel and Connor Shaw near the end of the season.

The Texans also retained Ryan Mallett and the two signal callers will battle it out for the starting job this summer. Mallett, 26, was acquired by the Texans in a trade with the Patriots last offseason, and got a chance to start a couple games for Houston in 2014 before landing on injured reserve due to a pectoral injury. Mallett’s 54.7% completion percentage and 67.6 passer rating likely didn’t have teams burning up his agent’s phone this weekend, but Texans GM Rick Smith and O’Brien both spoke highly of him in the offseason.

Rahim Moore initially ranked as the 28th-best overall free agent and the second-best safety in this year’s class, in our estimation. However, once Devin McCourty re-signed with New England and players like Antrel Rolle and Da’Norris Searcy came off the board, Moore became the most-coveted safety on the market. The UCLA product was Denver’s free safety for the majority of the last four seasons, and was very impressive in 2014, racking up 51 tackles to go along with four interceptions.

Cecil Shorts spent the first four years of his NFL career in Jacksonville, totaling 176 receptions for the Jaguars. His best season came in 2012, when he racked up 979 yards on just 55 receptions, reaching the end zone seven times. The former fourth-round pick has been nagged by injuries over the last two years, and averaged just 10.5 yards per catch in 2014. If he stays healthy, he could be a beast for Houston. If not, he might not be much of a factor at all.

Akeem Dent spent the 2014 season with the Texans after playing for the Falcons for three years. In his first year in Houston, the former third-round pick recorded 38 tackles and a sack in part-time action, earning playing time at multiple linebacker spots.

Notable losses:

The Andre Johnson saga made headlines all offseason long in Houston until March 9th when the Texans agreed to release him. The Texans reportedly wanted the wide receiver to take a pay cut and Johnson was reportedly open to it, until he came out on the record and made it clear that he wasn’t. Whatever the case was, the two sides parted ways just prior to the official start of free agency. Johnson, who is entering his age-34 season, caught a team-high 85 balls in 2014, but that was his lowest total for a full season in about a decade. The former third overall pick also averaged just 62.4 yards per game, the third-lowest mark of his 12-year career.

While the Texans spent big to keep Derek Newton on the offensive line, they said goodbye to fellow tackle Tyson Clabo in May. Clabo, 33, signed a two-year contract last July with the Texans, but after starting each and every one of his 116 career NFL games prior to the 2014 season, he was a reserve for Houston. For the season, Clabo logged just 101 offensive snaps, with 73 of those coming in Week 16 against the Ravens. Before he joined the Texans, Clabo spent most of his career with the Falcons, earning a Pro Bowl berth following the 2010 season, and also spent a single season in Miami in 2013.

Daniel Manning, who will turn 33 next month, announced his retirement roughly one week ago. In 2011, he joined the Texans, where he played out the final four years of his NFL career. While Manning never developed into an elite defender in Chicago or Houston, he was a solid complementary piece for both teams, appearing in a total of 128 regular season games (96 starts) over the course of his nine-year career. During that span, the Abilene Christian product recorded 549 tackles, grabbed 11 interceptions, and forced 10 fumbles. Manning also contributed as a kick returner during his last few years in Chicago, averaging a league-best 29.7 yards per return in 2008.

The Texans wanted to keep Kendrick Lewis in Houston, but he was not interested in backing up Moore in 2015, so he decided to pursue a starting role elsewhere. He eventually found that opportunity with the Ravens. Lewis graded out positively in 2014 according to Pro Football Focus, leading the Texans’ secondary in snap count (subscription required).

Brooks Reed spent the first four years of his career in Houston, where he started 52 of a possible 60 games and racked up 14.5 sacks. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) rated him the 26th-best 3-4 OLB in the NFL out of 46 qualifiers last season. While the Texans didn’t make a great effort to keep him, new Falcons coach Dan Quinn obviously sees something in him.

Trades:

  • Acquired a 2016 seventh-round pick from the Rams in exchange for QB Case Keenum.
  • Acquired a 2016 seventh-round pick from the Jets in exchange for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.
    • Texans’ pick could turn into a sixth-rounder based on Fitzpatrick’s playing time in 2015.
  • Acquired a 2015 second-round pick (No. 43; ILB Benardrick McKinney) and a 2015 seventh-round pick (No. 229) from the Browns in exchange for a 2015 second-round pick (No. 51; DE/OLB Nate Orchard), a 2015 fourth-round pick (No. 116), and a 2015 sixth-round pick (No. 195; FB/TE Malcolm Johnson.
  • Acquired a 2015 third-round pick (No. 70; WR Jaelen Strong) from the Jets in exchange for a 2015 third-round pick (No. 82; OLB Lorenzo Mauldin), a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 152; G Jarvis Harrison), a 2015 seventh-round pick (No. 229), and WR DeVier Posey.

Out with the old, in with the new at quarterback. Having signed Brian Hoyer, the Texans didn’t have much use for QBs Case Keenum and Ryan Fitzpatrick, so they parlayed both players into late-round draft picks.

Extensions/Restructures:

Last month, the Texans tacked another two years onto Johnathan Joseph‘s deal. Joseph was a Pro Bowler in 2011 and 2012, but didn’t play at his best in 2013 due to injury. The nine-year vet was on the field for all 16 regular season games in 2014, however. Last year, Joseph pulled down two interceptions, caused two fumbles, and racked up a total of 75 tackles. The advanced metrics at Pro Football Focus (subscription required) had him as an above average corner in 2014, giving him a 5.0 overall grade good for 23rd amongst all qualified corners. The No. 23 ranking at cornerback might not put him up there with elite corners like Darrelle Revis, but it was his best showing since he finished No. 11 on PFF in 2011.

The Texans declined their fifth-year option on outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus in order to sign him to a long-term deal. The new pact keeps Mercilus in Houston through the 2019 season. The 25-year-old has played in all but one of the Texans’ regular season games across the last three seasons. Playing primarily as a starter for the last two, Mercilus has racked up a combined 12 sacks, 97 tackles, and two forced fumbles. The Texans obviously are happy with Mercilus, but the advanced metrics aren’t so wild about him. In 2014, Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranked him as just the 35th best outside linebacker in a 3-4 set out of 46 qualified players. In 2013, his overall rating of -18.1 put him dead last (42nd out of 42) amongst 3-4 OLBs.

 

Draft picks:

  • 1-16: Kevin Johnson, CB (Wake Forest): Signed
  • 2-43: Benardrick McKinney, ILB (Mississippi State): Signed
  • 3-70: Jaelen Strong, WR (Arizona State): Signed
  • 5-175: Keith Mumphery, WR (Michigan State): Signed
  • 6-211: Reshard Cliett, OLB (South Florida): Signed
  • 6-216: Christian Covington, DT (Rice): Signed
  • 7-235: Kenny Hilliard, RB (LSU): Signed

Many were surprised to see Johnathan Joseph get a lucrative extension following the selection of Wake Forest cornerback Kevin Johnson. Even though Joseph is slated to be around for another three seasons, Johnson is clearly being looked at as the team’s future at the position. Johnson is blessed with tremendous athleticism and could have a bright future ahead of him if he can add weight to his lanky frame.

Other:

  • Promoted George Godsey to vacant offensive coordinator role.
    • Godsey and head coach Bill O’Brien called plays in 2014.
  • Signed 10 players to reserve/futures contracts.
  • Signed 16 undrafted rookie free agents following the draft.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. J.J. Watt, DL: $13,969,000
  2. Johnathan Joseph, CB: $11,750,000
  3. Duane Brown, LT: $9,500,000
  4. Arian Foster, RB: $8,706,250
  5. Brian Cushing, LB: $7,891,250
  6. Kareem Jackson, CB: $7,453,125
  7. Andre Johnson, WR: $7,319,585 (dead money)
  8. Brian Hoyer, QB: $5,218,750
  9. Jadeveon Clowney, DE/OLB: $5,062,045
  10. Derek Newton, RT: $4,500,000

One of the Texans’ biggest problems last season was the quarterback position and the signing of Hoyer should go a long way towards fixing that. With defensive reinforcements like Moore, Kevin Johnson, second-round pick Benardrick McKinney, and Wilfork, it’s not hard to see the Texans as an elite team in 2015.

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

Offseason In Review: Jacksonville Jaguars

July 23rd, 2015 at 3:35pm CST by Zachary Links

The Jaguars had their work cut out for them this offseason but they also had the most cap space of any team in the league.

Notable signings:

The Jaguars prioritized finding a playmaker this offseason and they did that by pouncing early on tight end Julius Thomas. In fact, Jacksonville reportedly had an agreement in place with him days before the official start of free agency. Thomas, a 2011 draftee, broke out during his third season in Denver, emerging as a key target for Peyton Manning in 2013. His reception and yards totals both decreased last season as he dealt with injuries (ultimately missing six games), but he still finished with 12 touchdowns. Many believed that Thomas, the No. 4 free agent on PFR’s Top 50 list, would receive heavy interest from the Seahawks, but he chose instead to sign with Jacksonville where he’ll catch passes from second-year quarterback Blake Bortles.

After landing Ndamukong Suh, the Dolphins had little use for fellow defensive tackle Jared Odrick. At that point, the Jaguars pounced on the 27-year-old and kept him in the state of Florida. When Luke Adams of PFR listed his top 50 free agents in March, he ranked Odrick 23rd, as the fourth defensive tackle on the board behind Suh, Terrance Knighton, and Nick Fairley. At the time, he estimated that the asking price would be in the neighborhood of $6MM annually. However, Odrick actually got a deal worth $8.5MM per season with $22MM guaranteed overall.

Doug Free started eleven games at right tackle for the Cowboys in 2014, but Jermey Parnell started seven, including the two playoff games while Free was out with injuries. While Parnell wasn’t viewed as a first tier free agent tackle with the likes of Free, Bryan Bulaga, King Dunlap, and Byron Bell, Parnell was in the second tier of attractive options thanks to his solid play in limited time as a starter. Parnell’s deal is worth $6.5MM per year over five years, a big bump from what he was getting in Dallas.

It was reported that several teams were pushing to land Davon House, but ultimately the corner signed a lucrative deal with the Jags. House only saw part-time action in nickel and dime packages with the Packers, but quarterbacks only completed 46.8% of their passes into his coverage last season, per Pro Football Focus. PFF’s advanced stats, by the way, placed him fourth among all qualified cornerbacks. The Packers, Jets, Seahawks, Bears, Cowboys, and Vikings had also been viewed as potential players for House.

Skuta, 29, also drew interest from the Dolphins and Eagles, the latter of whom would have had a “ton of interest” in signing him had they not retained Brandon Graham. A key contributor on special teams for the 49ers, Skuta also saw more than 300 snaps at outside linebacker for San Francisco, racking up five sacks. He spent four seasons with the Bengals before joining the Niners in 2013. Skuta’s deal came out to $20.5MM over five years, somewhat surprising given his body of work to date.

It took a while, but former center Stefen Wisniewski found an NFL home when he signed with the Jags in mid-April. Wisniewski had spent his entire four-year career with the Raiders, starting 61 games. The Penn State product missed only three games in those four seasons, and he managed to play 16 games in 2014 in spite of a torn labrum. The injury resulted in Wisniewski undergoing surgery this offseason, and it also provided a possible explanation for the player remaining unsigned for so long. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) gave Wisniewski high marks for his performance during the 2012 and 2013 seasons, as the center ranked in the top-20 among eligible center candidates. He received his first negative rating in 2014, but he still ranked 22nd among 41 candidates.

The Jaguars did a lot of free agent shopping this year but they also retained a notable player of their own in defensive lineman Tyson Alualu. Alualu was the first-round pick of the Jaguars in the 2010 NFL Draft. He was considered to be a reach at 10th overall at the time of the pick, and has been underwhelming at best during his tenure with the team. Clearly, however, they believe that the 28-year-old is capable of doing much more going forward.

Sergio Brown, 27, made a career-high eight starts in 2014. All in all, the free safety recorded 34 tackles, 6 pass deflections, one fumble recovery, and one sack on the year. Last year, Brown re-signed with the Colts on a one-year deal worth $1.4MM with a $300K signing bonus.

Pro Football Focus (subscription required) was pretty impressed with Brown’s work in 2014, ranking him as the 24th best safety in the NFL with a 5.3 score.

Notable losses:

Will Blackmon, who has spent the last two seasons with the Jaguars, was one of the top three cornerbacks for the team during his time in Jacksonville, starting 12 of 23 games. His 2014 campaign was cut short by a broken finger, which landed him on the injured reserve list with about two months left in the season. The 30-year-old was notified of his pending release in February as the team opted to go younger in the secondary.

Bryant, 31, was long rumored to be a cap casualty. Bryant saw time in all 16 games in his first and only season for the Jaguars. In total, he racked up 23 tackles to go with one pass deflection and one sack. Bryant graded out as being just below average according to Pro Football Focus‘ (subscription required) metrics, coming in with a -1.6 grade. Overall, that placed him No. 31 out of 59 qualified 4-3 defensive ends. Bryant’s contract called for him to earn $19MM in total between the years of 2014 and 2017. However, his only guaranteed money came in year one between his $3.5MM roster bonus and $1.225MM base salary in ’14.

Cecil Shorts, 27, spent the first four years of his NFL career in Jacksonville, totaling 176 receptions for the Jaguars. His best season came in 2012, when he racked up 979 yards on just 55 receptions, reaching the end zone seven times. The former fourth-round pick has been nagged by injuries over the last two years, and averaged just 10.5 yards per catch in 2014. Now, he’s in Houston and if he’s healthy, he could be a difference maker for the Texans.

Alan Ball, 30, spent the last two seasons in Jacksonville and was quietly one of the best parts of the Jaguars’ secondary. In 2013, Ball recorded a +7.5 Pro Football Focus grade in over 1,000 snaps, ranking 22nd among 110 qualified cornerbacks (subscription required). His 2014 season was cut short by a biceps injury, which landed him on injured reserve after seven games, but he still held his own in the first half of the season, recording 22 tackles and an interception.

J.T. Thomas, 27 in August, appeared in all 16 games for the Jaguars last season and made ten starts. In total, he had a career-high 85 tackles to go with five pass deflections and two forced fumbles. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) wasn’t all that impressed with Thomas’ play in 2014, giving him an overall grade of -16.1, placing him as one of the worst inside linebackers in the NFL.

Jordan Todman played for Jacksonville from 2012 through 2014, totaling 450 rushing yards on 111 carries and 314 receiving yards on 40 catches during his 33 games with the Jags. The Panthers inked him a one-year deal in late March.

Just days ago the Jaguars released Ace Sanders, a player who once looked like he could be a focal point of the team’s offense. The 23-year-old, selected 101st overall in the fourth round of the 2013 draft by the Jaguars, had a decent rookie season, hauling in 51 balls, though he only averaged 9.5 yards per catch and reached the end zone just once. However, Sanders wasn’t a major part of the offense last season, after Jacksonville used multiple 2014 draft picks to add receiving help. Sanders saw just seven targets in 2014, earning most of his playing time on special teams, where he returned 32 punts, averaging 7.1 yards per return.

Trades:

  • Acquired a 2015 fourth-round pick (No. 104; S James Sample) and a 2015 seventh-round pick (No. 229; TE Ben Koyack) from the Jets in exchange for a 2015 fourth-round pick (No. 103; QB Bryce Petty).

Extensions/Restructures:

Draft picks:

  • 1-3: Dante Fowler Jr., DE/OLB (Florida): Signed
  • 2-36: T.J. Yeldon, RB (Alabama): Signed
  • 3-67: A.J. Cann, OL (South Carolina): Signed
  • 4-104: James Sample, S (Louisville): Signed
  • 5-139: Rashad Greene, WR (Florida State): Signed
  • 6-180: Michael Bennett, DT (Ohio State): Signed
  • 7-220: Neal Sterling, WR (Monmouth): Signed
  • 7-229: Ben Koyack, TE (Notre Dame): Signed

At No. 3 overall, the Jaguars grabbed the most gifted edge rusher in the draft in Florida’s Dante Fowler. Unfortunately, Jags fans will have to wait a while to see their rising star after Fowler suffered an ACL tear in his first practice. Fowler notched 15 sacks last season and finished his three-year Gators career with 33. Picking No. 3 for the second straight year, the Jaguars were counting on Fowler to elevate their pass pursuit. Jacksonville boasted the seventh-best sack total in the league last season with 45 but finished 22nd in pass defense.

In the second round, the Jags selected Alabama tailback T.J. Yeldon. Of course, the Jaguars have been disappointed by the production of Toby Gerhart and they’re hoping to reignite the running game with Yeldon. Yeldon is a tough back who has grimaced his way through a fair share of injuries in college. Mike Mayock of NFL.com pointed out that a lack of speed is the big knock on the youngster, but injuries may have played a part in that.

Other:

Greg Olson’s two-year stint with the Raiders wasn’t overly successful, with his offense finishing in the bottom five in the NFL in DVOA both years, including 30th overall in 2014. Still, Olson didn’t have a ton of talent to work with in Oakland — in 2013, Terrelle Pryor and Matt McGloin split time at quarterback, and this past season, second-round rookie Derek Carr took the reins, with James Jones and Andre Holmes acting as his top receivers. The Jags are hoping that he’ll click with Bortles and give them a powerful offense in the AFC South.

Doug Marrone, who led the Bills to a 9-7 record in 2014, narrowly missing a playoff spot, opted out of his contract following the team’s final regular season game. Marrone’s agreement with the Bills allowed him to receive his full $4MM salary for 2015 despite the fact that he’s no longer coaching the team. Many figured that Marrone already had another head coaching gig lined up but, as it turns out, that was not the case.

A day after he was cut by the Ravens following his DUI arrest, running back Bernard Pierce was claimed off waivers by the Jaguars. Last season, Pierce appeared in 13 regular season games for the Ravens, rushing for a career-low 366 yards off of 93 attempts with two touchdowns. Even with Baltimore’s backfield situation in flux, Pierce was unable to become a major part of the rushing attack, slipping down the depth chart after Justin Forsett emerged as the team’s No. 1 back.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. Julius Thomas, TE: $10,300,000
  2. Jared Odrick, DL: $9,000,000
  3. Jermey Parnell, RT: $8,000,000
  4. Paul Posluszny, LB: $6,885,416
  5. Davon House, CB: $6,500,000
  6. Luke Joeckel, LT: $5,782,254
  7. Sen’Derrick Marks, DT: $5,425,000
  8. Zane Beadles, G: $5,000,000
  9. Chris Clemons, DE: $5,000,000
  10. Blake Bortles, QB: $4,694,273

Can the Jaguars turn things around after going 3-13 last season? Much of that will depend on the growth of rising sophomore Bortles, but then again, few quarterbacks could have thrived behind the Jaguars’ weak offensive line last season. Defensively, a big season out of Sen’Derrick Marks plus strong play from new pickup Odrick would go a long way towards helping their cause.

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

Extension Candidate: Julio Jones

July 23rd, 2015 at 2:03pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the last two offseasons, a handful of productive wide receivers have signed new contracts, including Jeremy Maclin, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Torrey Smith, Eric Decker, and DeSean Jackson. Out of that group, only Nelson has a strong case for being placed amongst the league’s very best wide receivers, and the Packers star signed his extension well before reaching free agency, accepting a below-market deal.

In other words, it had been a while since a top wideout had signed a contract that reset the market for receivers, establishing a new baseline for the NFL’s best players at the position. Mike Wallace‘s five-year, $60MM deal, finalized in March 2013, was the last signing that qualified up until last week, when Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas inked new extensions at the 11th hour before the franchise-tag deadline. The Cowboys’ and Broncos’ Pro Bowlers had their deals structured a little differently, but they look identical in terms of years and overall base value — five years and $70MM.

The per-year salaries for Bryant and Thomas fall well short of Calvin Johnson‘s $16.27MM annual average value, but that deal was an outlier, and the fact that the two franchised stars easily topped Wallace’s $12MM annual average better reflects their place among the NFL’s best wideouts. It also sets a clear baseline for the next crop of elite receivers who will seek new contracts, such as A.J. Green and Julio Jones.Julio Jones

Green may sign an extension this year, but he has suggested that he doesn’t mind playing out the 2015 season without a new agreement in place, and the Bengals seem content to wait as well. That leaves Jones as the receiver most likely to sign a lucrative new deal in the coming weeks, or even the coming days, with training camp just around the corner.

At the moment, Jones is set to play the 2015 season on his fully guaranteed fifth-year option, worth $10.176MM, which puts him in a slightly different situation that Bryant’s or Thomas’. Atlanta will have the option of franchising the team’s No. 1 receiver in 2016, meaning Jones’ case could eventually play out like the ones resolved last week.

However, as we saw with Bryant’s situation in particular, a prolonged negotiation can often result in some unpleasantness along the way. The Cowboys wide receiver was the subject of reports suggesting he was having money problems, and whispers about off-field concerns and a Walmart video tape that may or may not exist followed him for most of the offseason. If the Falcons could get Jones’ contract situation squared away now, it could save both sides some unnecessary stress down the read, considering the team has made it clear the wideout is considered a key long-term piece in Atlanta.

Before we automatically place Jones in the same five-year, $70MM range as Bryant and Thomas, it’s worth considering how he stacks up to the franchised duo. On paper, his 2014 numbers certainly compare favorably — in 15 games, Jones racked up 1,593 yards and six touchdowns on 104 receptions, setting a new Falcons team record for most receiving yards in a season. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) also ranked him right behind Bryant and Thomas, despite the fact that he played fewer snaps than either player.

Jones’ ability to explode for huge yardage totals was on full display in Green Bay last December, when the 26-year-old went off for 259 yards on just 11 receptions in Week 14. His 106.2 receiving yards per game last season also topped the career-best marks for both Bryant and Thomas, and his eye-popping 116.0 mark during five 2013 games suggests last year’s mark wasn’t an aberration.

Still, there are some areas in which Jones doesn’t match up to the league’s other top receivers quite so favorably. He only appeared in five games in 2013 because of a fractured foot that brought his season to a premature end, and that’s not the only time he has dealt with injuries. The former sixth overall pick missed a game in 2014 after suffering a hip pointer, and has had multiple hamstring-related issues since entering the league in 2011.

Not including that 2013 season that was cut short after five weeks, Jones has only missed four games in his three other years in the NFL, so it’s not as if he’s a major question mark to be on the field going forward. But considering neither Bryant nor Thomas has missed a game over the last three seasons, it’s a factor the Falcons must take into account when they consider a long-term investment in their own No. 1 receiver.

Another factor worth considering for the Falcons is who Matt Ryan will be throwing the ball to for the next several years, if not Jones. The former first overall pick no longer has future Hall-of-Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez to rely on, and longtime slot man Harry Douglas is now in Tennessee. Roddy White is still in the mix, but White will turn 34 in November, and is no longer a perennial lock for 1,000 yards.

A quarterback like Ryan will post solid numbers no matter who’s on the receiving end of his passes, but it’s worth noting that in 2013, when Jones missed 11 games, the Falcons signal-caller threw a career-high 17 interceptions and averaged a career-low 10.3 yards per completion en route to a 4-12 season. It would be a significant blow to the Atlanta offense to be without Jones at any point over the next few years.

So what will it take for the Falcons and Jones to get a deal done before the 2015 season gets underway? In examining the situation for CBSSports.com, former agent Joel Corry suggests that an extension in the neighborhood of $15.25MM per year makes sense, based on the likely franchise-tag figures for 2016 and 2017. If we assume a five-year extension at that rate, tacked onto Jones’ $10.176MM salary for 2015, it would work out to a total of six years and $86.426MM, an average of about $14.4MM annually.

Depending on the guaranteed money attached to such an offer, that looks like a pretty good deal for Jones, who could edge out Bryant and Thomas to become the league’s second-highest-paid receiver in that scenario. However, I’m not sure whether the Falcons would sign on the dotted line quite yet, considering they still have the franchise tag at their disposal, and they may want to see Jones stay healthy for one more year.

Still, if the Falcons were to make such an offer, it wouldn’t be the first time they’ve gone out on a limb for Jones — Atlanta parted with two first-round picks, a second-rounder, and two fourth-rounders to move up for the former Alabama wideout in 2011, and it’s hard to imagine the team thinks any less of him now. After all, his career mark of 88.4 receiving yards per game places him atop the all-time NFL leaderboard, slightly ahead of Johnson, the league’s current highest-paid receiver. I don’t expect the Falcons to make an offer in the Megatron neighborhood to Jones, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club soon make him the league’s second-highest-paid wideout.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Tailgate: Who Will Win AFC South?

July 22nd, 2015 at 4:15pm CST by Luke Adams

We’re still several weeks away from the start of battles on the NFL gridiron, but there’s no offseason when it comes to debate amongst fans. Earlier this summer, we launched a new series here at PFR that will be known as the Community Tailgate. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. Every weekday, we’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

As the 2015 season inches closer, we’re examining each NFL division, asking you which team you expect to finish atop the East, North, South, and West. Having already taken a closer look at the East and North divisions, along with the NFC South, we’re shifting our focus to the AFC South, perhaps the league’s most lopsided division.

According to betting site Bovada.lv, no NFL team is more likely to win its division than the Colts, who are even heavier favorites in the AFC South than the Packers, Seahawks, or Patriots are in their respective divisions. That’s not a surprise. After all, the Colts have won the division by multiple games in each of the last two seasons, averaging 11 wins per year while their division rivals average just 4.5 wins.

There’s not much reason to expect the Colts to fall off in 2015 either, with Andrew Luck continuing to improve, and veterans like Frank Gore and Andre Johnson now at his disposal, along with first-round receiver Phillip Dorsett. There are still some questions on the defensive side of the ball in Indianapolis, but as long as Luck stays healthy, those defensive shortcomings may not be a factor until the postseason.

While the Colts aren’t necessarily one of the league’s most dominant teams, the lack of competition in the AFC South contributes to Indianapolis’ strong odds to win the division. The Titans and Jaguars finished 2-14 and 3-13 respectively a year ago, and while they may not be quite that dismal again this year, it’s hard to imagine either team making a playoff push, even with some encouraging free agent additions in Jacksonville, and new quarterback Marcus Mariota in Tennessee.

That leaves the Texans as the team most likely to challenge the Colts for the AFC South crown, as they did a year ago, finishing 9-7. J.J. Watt has a greater impact on a given game than any other defender in the league, and a healthy Jadeveon Clowney would make that Houston D even more dangerous. But there’s still no clear-cut solution at the quarterback position, where Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett will battle for the No. 1 job. Additionally, with Johnson in Indianapolis, Arian Foster and DeAndre Hopkins will be asked to carry a significant load on offense, and the unit could be in real trouble if either player gets hurt.

What do you think? Will the Texans knock the Colts out of the top spot? Will the Jaguars or Texans make a surprise run for the division? Or will the Colts cruise to another division title? Who do you expect to win the AFC South? Weigh in below in the comment section with your thoughts!

Offseason In Review: Chicago Bears

July 22nd, 2015 at 8:58am CST by Dallas Robinson

The Bears were a trendy playoff pick heading into the 2014 season, but a 5-11 finish was followed by the dismissal of both general manager Phil Emery and head coach Marc Trestman. Now, Chicago might be entering rebuilding mode, though they did use free agency to bring in several interesting players.

Notable signings:

There’s no doubting that Eddie Royal is a solid football player — he was excellent out of the slot for the Chargers last season, catching 72 passes for 778 yards and seven touchdowns. And while his $5MM annual salary isn’t all that exorbitant (although it’s higher than Julian Edelman, for example, and equal to that of Emmanuel Sanders), it’s pretty surprising that the Bears handed Royal $10MM in guarantees. That’s more than Torrey Smith, who is widely regarded as a superior pass-catcher, garnered, and it ranks 16th among all receivers (not counting rookie deals). It might seem like Royal has been around forever, but he just turned 29, so perhaps his relative youth helped him score this contract, but I have a hard time believing many other clubs would have agreed to this deal. Chicago must be certain that the Royal/Jay Cutler relationship is strong enough to post positive results over the next three years.

Making the Royal deal all the more surprising is the fact that he got more guaranteed money than the Bears’ true free agent prize, pass-rusher Pernell McPhee. It’s hard to even label McPhee with a position, as we’ve seen him get after the quarterback from all along the defensive line and several linebacker positions, and it will be interesting to see where new Chicago defensive coordinator Vic Fangio asks 26-year-old line up. It’s a little hard to believe that while his total contract is valued at nearly $40MM, McPhee was only able to secure $8.75MM in guarantees. That could have something to do with his relative lack of experience, as 2014 was the first season that he topped 600 snaps on defense. We’ve seen other defensive players leave Baltimore via free agency and tank before, but the Bears certainly have high hopes for McPhee, who ranked as the second-best 3-4 outside linebacker in the league, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Elsewhere on the defensive side of the ball, the Bears added veteran safety Antrel Rolle, inking the former Giant to a three-year deal. Chicago ranked 29th in DVOA against the pass last season, running out the likes of Chris Conte for extended stretches of time. At age 32, Rolle probably isn’t the same player that he was during his early career in Arizona or his first few seasons in New York, but he should add a level of stability to Chicago’s back end that it hasn’t had in recent years. He’ll also act as a complement, and perhaps mentor, to second-year pro Brock Vereen, the projected starter at free safety.

Rolle wasn’t the only experienced defensive back signed by the Bears this offseason, as they also brought in cornerback Alan Ball, who spent the last two years in Jacksonville. He isn’t a star (PFF rated him as the No. 40 CB in ’14), but like Rolle, he’ll bring a level of competency a Chicago defense that sorely needs it. During the offseason, some around the league had said that the Bears’ defense was so poor last year that they might need 10 new starters (with Kyle Fuller being safe). Given the presence of Fuller and Tim Jennings, Ball won’t be on those new starters, but he will be an insurance option if something happens to the top two corners.

Outside of those four signings, the Bears didn’t do all that much in free agency. However, I was particularly impressed by new general manager Ryan Pace‘s use of the minimum salary benefit to bring in players who could contribute at a low cost. Sam Acho, for instance, could turn out to be a valuable addition, as the 26-year-old former Cardinal is capable of playing either inside or outside linebacker. Mason Foster, also only 26 years old, has four years experience as a starting middle linebacker. Will Montgomery ranked as the league’s 15th-best center per PFF last year despite playing less than 600 snaps. Those were my three favorite MSB additions, but it’s not impossible that players such as Jacquizz Rodgers, Tracy Porter, or Daniel Thomas could contribute something in 2015, as well. Pace was able to bring in a bevy of high-quality role players who won’t embarrass themselves if thrust into increased playing time, and did so while handing out less than $600K in guarantees.

Notable losses:

The Bears didn’t seem to make much of an effort to re-sign Stephen Paea, as the defensive lineman told reporters when he signed with Washington that he chose the nation’s capital over Dallas, Detroit, and Tampa, with no mention of Chicago. The 26-year-old graded as the No. 11 DT in the league according to PFF, and given that he’s earning just slightly more annually than Eddie Royal, I wonder if the Bears would have been wiser to spend that ~$5MM per year on Paea. Although he’s only played defensive tackle thus far in his career, the 6’1″, 300-pounder has the size to play 3-4 end (and it’s the role he’ll play in Washington).

Sentimentally, Chicago lost two of its most beloved defenders, linebacker Lance Briggs (who remains unsigned) and cornerback Charles Tillman (who joined the Panthers). Briggs, 34, played in only eight games last season but was the Bears’ third-best defender per PFF, while Tillman appeared in just two games before injuring his triceps. It makes sense that neither was retained given that the club is going younger on defense, but I wonder if Briggs might be an option later in training if Vic Fangio is unhappy with his crop of inside linebackers.

Another long-time Bear — center Roberto Garza — was released in April despite having signed a one-year extension in December. The pact was inked by the club’s regime, so it’s clear that Ryan Pace & Co. didn’t value Garza at the same level. Garza, 36, had been with the Bears since the 2005 season, playing 154 regular season contests (145 starts) during that stretch, primarily at center and right guard. Chicago also declined to bring back fellow center Brian De La Puente, who had a very successful season in ’14 during which he saw 501 snaps, mostly while filling in at center for Garza during the early portion of the year. De La Puente is only 30 years old and had to surprisingly accept a one-year deal for the minimum salary benefit last offseason, and he remains unsigned as of this writing.

Safety Chris Conte offered youth (he’s entering his age-26 season) and experience (more than 600 snaps in each of his first three seasons), but he’s dealt with shoulder injuries throughout his career and has produced at merely an average level. In 2014, Conte graded as the No. 63 safety among 87 qualifiers per PFF. He’d been better than that in the two seasons prior, but he’s always been in the middle of the pack relative to his peers. The Bears moved on, adding the veteran Antrel Rolle as a replacement, while Conte followed ex-Bears HC Lovie Smith to Tampa Bay.

Josh Morgan actually played a decent number of snaps while acting as Chicago’s third receiver last season, but the team added Kevin White in the draft and will hope that Marquess Wilson will take the next step and supplant Morgan, who signed with the Saints. The only notable departure who saw more than 400 snaps was inside linebacker D.J. Williams, who, at age 33 and having dealt with multiple injuries in recent years, might be nearing the end of his NFL run.

 Trades:

The Bears didn’t move around at all during the draft, but they did swing a trade near the beginning of the league year, shipping veteran receiver Brandon Marshall to the Jets. Marshall was among the NFL’s best receivers as recently as 2013, but last season saw him catch just 61 passes for 721 yards, and he missed the final three games with broken ribs. The 31-year-old was due a 2015 base salary of $7.5MM and scheduled to count $9.575MM against the cap.

Marshall’s 2015 salary was set to become guaranteed on the third day of the 2015 league year, so Chicago was forced to quickly make a deal to clear his that total. The club will carry $5.625MM in dead money this year as a result of the trade.

Draft picks:

  • 1-7: Kevin White, WR (West Virginia): Signed
  • 2-39: Eddie Goldman, DT (Florida State): Signed
  • 3-71: Hroniss Grasu, OL (Oregon): Signed
  • 4-106: Jeremy Langford, RB (Michigan State): Signed
  • 5-142: Adrian Amos, S (Penn State): Signed
  • 6-183: Tayo Fabuluje, T (TCU): Signed

Kevin White and Eddie Goldman, Chicago’s top two selections, will be counted on to start almost immediately, with White replacing the production of Brandon Marshall, and Goldman pushing Will Sutton for snaps at nose tackle. It remains to be seen how White will acclimate to the NFL; there’s no doubting his speed and/or raw ability, but some wonder if he’ll need some time to refine his game.

Hroniss Grassu, like Goldman, will have to compete for snaps with Will Montgomery, and the veteran probably has the edge here, though Grassu could also act as insurance at guard in case Matt Slauson suffers another injury. Jeremy Langford will join Ka’Deem Carey, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Daniel Thomas in the race to back up Matt Forte, and most think Langford has the most long-term value of that group.

Other:

Phil Emery‘s run as the Bears’ general manager — highlighted by the ill-advised seven-year extension handed to Jay Cutler — officially came to end in December, and the team fired head coach Marc Trestman on the same day. Though the duo had fielded a largely successful club in 2013, 2014 saw number of issues — discord among players, offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer throwing Cutler under the bus, failed signings such as Jared Allen and Lamarr Houston — come to the forefront, leading the pair to be ousted after only two years on the job.

To replace Emery, the Bears settled on former Saints executive Ryan Pace as their new GM after a search that saw Chicago meet with Chris Ballard of the Chiefs, Brian Gaine of the Dolphins, and Lake Dawson of the Titans. At 37, Pace becomes the youngest general manager in the league. It was fair to wonder if Pace would employ the same sort of contract structures in Chicago that often led the Saints to having little or no cap space, but given that Pace’s title was player personnel director, he probably doesn’t deserve blame for New Orleans’ cap woes.

Aside from the Broncos, the Bears interviewed the fewest candidates of any club searching for a new head coach. Chicago was one of only two teams who were replacing its general manager in addition to its HC, so it’s possible they wanted to have Pace in place before getting too deep into its coaching hunt. But it’s also conceivable the Bears simply got lucky, as just four days after Denver parted ways with John Fox, Chicago scooped him up, signing the 60-year-old to a four-year contract. Fox, entering his 14th season as an NFL head coach, will bring Adam Gase with him from Denver to head up the offense, while adding former 49ers DC Vic Fangio to lead the defense (and shift to a 3-4 scheme).

The one true black mark of Chicago’s offseason was the signing of defensive end Ray McDonald, who had already been in legal trouble twice (domestic violence and sexual assault) before joining the Bears. Financially, it was a no-risk signing for the club, but the optics could not have been worse. The public relations backlash only increased when McDonald was arrested again just two months after inking his contract, this time on charges of domestic violence and child endangerment. Chicago released McDonald almost immediately, but the reaction following the incident was clear — Pace had made the first big mistake of his tenure.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. Jay Cutler, QB: $16,500,000
  2. Jared Allen, DE/OLB: $12,500,000
  3. Matt Forte, RB: $9,200,000
  4. Jermon Bushrod, LT: $8,050,000
  5. Lamarr Houston, DE/OLB: $6,990,000
  6. Pernell McPhee, OLB: $6,675,000
  7. Martellus Bennett, TE: $6,125,000
  8. Brandon Marshall, WR: $5,625,000 (dead money)
  9. Eddie Royal, WR: $5,500,000
  10. Tim Jennings, CB: $5,250,000

2014 will probably be something of a rebuilding year for the Bears. Turnarounds can happen quickly in the NFL, and given that Chicago hired a veteran coach in John Fox, it’s probably aiming to be in contention again in the very near future. But with three other solid teams in the division, it’s quite possible that the Bears are cellar-dwellers once again, barring vast improvement on the part of either Jay Cutler or the defense as a whole.

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

Offseason In Review: Detroit Lions

July 20th, 2015 at 7:54pm CST by Zachary Links

The Lions had 23 free agents and only $18.44MM worth of cap space this offseason, leading to some tough choices over the spring. Their limited space also meant saying farewell to a defensive superstar.

Notable signings:

The Lions had to kiss a lot of frogs before finding their kicking prince in 2014. Eventually, they settled on Matt Prater and locked him up to a three-year extension worth $9MM. Prater, 30, began the 2014 season by serving a four-game suspension in Denver for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, and was ultimately cut by the Broncos, ending a seven-year tenure with the club. After signing with the Lions, Prater was a little shaky in his first few games, but settled down and ended up making 21 of 26 field goal attempts. In 2013, he was a Pro Bowler, making all but one of 26 field goal attempts for the Broncos.

Back in February, Lions GM Martin Mayhew said that he would like to retain Mathis for the 2015 season and praised Mathis’ “position versatility.” In mid-March, he was able to check that off on his offseason to-do list. In 2014, Mathis started all 16 regular season games for the Lions, finishing with 54 total tackles, one interception for a touchdown, and two forced fumbles. The advanced metrics at Pro Football Focus (subscription required) placed him as the 12th best cornerback in the entire NFL last season with an overall score of 9.1. For reference, that posting put him ahead of such notables as Chris Culliver, Brandon Flowers, Aqib Talib, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

Before the start of free agency, the Lions locked up both of Matthew Stafford‘s backups – Dan Orlovsky and Kellen Moore. Orlovsky, 31, didn’t see game action in 2014, as Stafford stayed healthy for the whole season. The former Buccaneer last played in a regular season game in 2012 for Tampa Bay. Moore, 25, didn’t come close to appearing in a regular-season game for the Lions in 2014, and has yet to appear in a game during his three-year NFL career. However, the team was likely impressed by his performance during the preseason last year — Moore completed 35 of 51 passes for 361 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions during those exhibition games, with a passer rating of 108.4.

Isa Abdul-Quddus isn’t a big-name player, but as Birkett notes, he’s a valuable backup and a key player on special teams, where he racked up five tackles. He did end up starting four games last season, and posted 22 total tackles on the year. The Lions originally claimed the 25-year-old off waivers from the Saints last February.

Linebacker Josh Bynes, a restricted free agent, was not tendered an offer by the Lions, but he was re-signed at a lower rate. The 25-year-old appeared in 26 games for the Ravens from 2011 through 2014 and made nine starts along the way. He began the season on the Ravens’ taxi squad, but the Lions signed him to their active roster in late September.

Wide receiver Greg Salas, a fourth-round pick by the Rams in 2011, has bounced around the league a bit over the years but hopes to have a longer stay with the Lions. Over the course of his four-year NFL career, the 26-year-old has accumulated 43 receptions, including eight last year for New York — most of those catches came in Salas’ rookie season, when he hauled in 27 balls for the Rams.

Notable losses:

All season long, the possible departure of Ndamukong Suh hovered over Ford Field like a dark cloud. In March, what many viewed as the inevitable took place when Suh inked a lucrative free agent deal elsewhere. The good news for the Lions is that they won’t have to see a whole lot of their former start defensive tackle since he signed on with the AFC’s Dolphins. By PFF’s count, Suh racked up 72 total quarterback pressures in 2013, well ahead of any other DT besides Gerald McCoy, and he generated 57 quarterback pressures in 2014, tops in the league among defensive tackles. Another notable name, who we’ll get to in a bit, will now be charged with stuffing the run in Detroit.

Suh was the most notable defensive tackle to leave the Lions this offseason, but he wasn’t the only one. Nick Fairley inked a one-year deal with the Rams that will pay him a base of $5MM with incentives that can take him up to $7.5MM. Fairley had his 2014 season derailed by injuries, but he was very effective when healthy, as evidence by the widespread interest in him in March. A former 13th overall pick, Fairley had his best season in 2013, when he recorded 35 tackles and six sacks to go along with a pair of forced fumbles. Despite that impressive showing, the Lions elected not to exercise his relatively inexpensive ($5.477MM) fifth-year option for the 2015 season, allowing him to reach free agency.

Reggie Bush, 30, spent the last two seasons in Detroit. The former second overall pick had an excellent season in 2013, racking up more than 1,500 yards from scrimmage in just 14 games, establishing a new career high. However, he was plagued by injuries in 2014, and wasn’t overly effective when he did play. Overall, Bush accumulated just 297 yards on the ground and another 253 through the air in 11 games. Having inked a four-year, $16MM contract two years ago, Bush had been under contract through the 2016 season. A total of $3.556MM in dead money will now count toward the Lions’ cap in 2015.

Joining Suh in Miami will be defensive tackle C.J. Mosley, who hooked on just last month. Although he wasn’t as coveted a free agent as his ex-Lions teammate, Mosley was a solid contributor in Detroit last season as well. Pro Football Focus’ grades (subscription required) ranked him 26th out of 81 qualified defensive tackles, viewing him as slightly above average against both the pass and the run.

Over the years, Dominic Raiola became synonymous with two things: the Detroit Lions and dirty play. He’ll no longer be a part of the former in 2015 and it’s not clear if he’ll get a chance to show off the latter anywhere else. The veteran center was not re-signed as 2014 third-rounder Travis Swanson appears poised to take over the position.

Rob Sims, 31, helped give the Lions stability at left guard when he joined the team in 2010. Now, after his contract lapsed, he’s still looking for work. The veteran struggled early on in 2014 as he continued to recover from offseason injuries. He allowed two sacks against the Bills in Week 5 and garnered a negative grade from Pro Football Focus (subscription required) in half of the Lions’ first ten games. But once his injuries started to get behind him, Sims played well down the stretch. Starting in Week 11 against the Cardinals Sims earned a positive grade from PFF in every game.

Andre Fluellen, 30, spent nearly all of his career with the Lions since being drafted by the team in the third round back in 2008. However, he never played a significant role in Detroit, acting as a part-time contributor over the course of 77 career games (75 with Detroit). In 2014, Fluellen recorded 10 tackles, two sacks, and a fumble recovery in 183 defensive snaps. We’ll have to see if he takes on a bigger role with the Bills in 2015.

Trades:

  • Acquired DT Haloti Ngata and a 2015 seventh-round pick from the Ravens in exchange for a 2015 fourth-round pick and a 2015 fifth-round pick.
  • Acquired a 2015 fifth-round pick from the Buccaneers in exchange for DE George Johnson (RFA) and a 2015 seventh-round pick.
  • Acquired a 2015 first-round pick (No. 28; G Laken Tomlinson), a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 143), a 2016 fifth-round pick, and OL Manny Ramirez from the Broncos in exchange for a 2015 first-round pick (No. 23; DE/OLB Shane Ray).
  • Acquired a a 2015 third-round pick (No. 80; CB Alex Carter) from the Vikings in exchange for a 2015 third-round pick (No. 88; DE Danielle Hunter) and a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 143; TE MyCole Pruitt).
  • Acquired a 2015 fourth-round pick (No. 113; DT Gabe Wright) from the Eagles in exchange for a 2016 third-round pick.

The Lions lost the heart and soul of their defense to free agency this offseason but they moved quickly to find a replacement. The Ravens expressed optimism they would be able to retain the 31-year-old Haloti Ngata via some sort of contract restructure involving either an extension or a pay reduction, but that was not the case. On March 10th, Detroit received Ngata and a seventh-round pick while sending a fourth- and fifth-round pick to the Ravens. Ngata is reuniting with Teryl Austin, Detroit’s defensive coordinator, who previously coached in Baltimore. The Lions will assume Ngata’s base salary of $8.5MM for the upcoming season. The nine-year veteran has started 133 games in his career, accruing 25.5 sacks.

Defensive end George Johnson tried to make the case that he should be classified as an unrestricted free agent this offseason, but his battle fell short when the NFLPA eventually saw things Detroit’s way. As a restricted free agent, many expected that he would stay put in Detroit. The 27-year-old carved out a role for himself as the preferred bookend off of the bench in 2014 and the Bucs took notice, inking him to a three-year, $9MM deal. The pact included de-escalators for years two and three and the Lions initially disputed the offer sheet, saying that they were unclear on what exactly they had to match. Rather than get an arbitrator involved, the two sides agreed to a deal in which Detroit received a fifth-round choice for the defensive end.

Draft day was incredibly slow in terms of trades but the Lions made a move in the first round that armed them with multiple picks plus a veteran offensive lineman in Manny Ramirez. The Broncos were smitten with linebacker Shane Ray and when he fell to Detroit at No. 23, Denver came calling. The Lions grabbed guard Laken Tomlinson at No. 28.

Extensions and restructures:

Draft picks:

  • 1-28: Laken Tomlinson, G (Duke): Signed
  • 2-54: Ameer Abdullah, RB (Nebraska): Signed
  • 3-80: Alex Carter, CB (Stanford): Signed
  • 4-113: Gabe Wright, DT (Auburn): Signed
  • 5-168: Michael Burton, FB (Rutgers): Signed
  • 6-200: Quandre Diggs, CB (Texas): Signed
  • 7-240: Corey Robinson, T (South Carolina): Signed

By drafting Laken Tomlinson at No. 28, the Lions got themselves a very capable replacement for Rob Sims at left guard. The Duke standout started all four years in college and hasn’t allowed a sack in the last two seasons. Tomlinson was widely pegged as a second-round guy, but late in the first round was hardly a stretch for him. In his draft profile on Tomlinson, Mike Mayock of NFL.com cited his lack of range and athleticism as a concern.

In the second round, the Lions found someone to help replenish the running back chart and potentially overtake Joique Bell as the No. 1 guy. Last year, Bell ran for 860 yards and seven TDs and showed that he can move the chains, even with a weak offensive line. Bell will probably be the Week 1 starter, but Abdullah could see more carries come his way as the season goes on.

Other:

In March, Mayhew expressed some uncertainty about Riley Reiff’s option, but it would’ve been a huge surprise if the club had actually declined the option. In April, they did what we all knew they would do. By exercising Reiff’s fifth-year option, the Lions extended the 26-year-old’s rookie contract by one year, keeping him locked up through the 2016 season. In 2014, Reiff’s Pro Football Focus grade (subscription required) placed him in a tie for 23rd out of 84 qualified offensive tackles.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. Calvin Johnson, WR: $20,558,000
  2. Matthew Stafford, QB: $17,721,250
  3. Ndamukong Suh, DT: $9,737,500 (dead money)
  4. Haloti Ngata, DT: $8,500,000
  5. Stephen Tulloch, LB: $5,800,000
  6. Golden Tate, WR: $5,350,000
  7. Ezekiel Ansah, DE: $5,071,228
  8. DeAndre Levy, LB: $4,500,000
  9. Jason Jones, DE: $3,983,334
  10. Chris Houston, CB: $3,900,000 (dead money)

After finishing 11-5 and securing a Wild Card in 2014, the Lions will look to take a step forward in 2015 and overtake the Packers for the divisional crown. The big question is, how will their defense fair without one of the league’s most tenacious lineman?

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

Community Tailgate: Who Will Win NFC South?

July 20th, 2015 at 3:09pm CST by Luke Adams

We’re still over a month and a half away from the start of battles on the NFL gridiron, but there’s no offseason when it comes to debate amongst fans. Earlier this summer, we launched a new series here at PFR that will be known as the Community Tailgate. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. Every weekday, we’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

As the 2015 season inches closer, we’re examining each NFL division, asking you which team you expect to finish atop the East, North, South, and West. Having already taken a closer look at the East and North divisions, we’re shifting our focus to the NFC South, home of 2014’s most tepid division race.

A year ago, it only took seven wins – and, of course, a tie – for the Panthers to snag the NFC South crown, and Carolina is bringing back most of its key players that contributed to that team. Armed with a handful of veteran additions, including offensive tackle Michael Oher, cornerback Charles Tillman, and return specialist Ted Ginn Jr., the Panthers will be looking to repeat as division champions.

The Saints entered 2014 as favorites in the South, but it never came together for Drew Brees‘ squad, and the disappointing season resulted in a major overhaul over the last few months. Jimmy Graham, Kenny Stills, Curtis Lofton, and Ben Grubbs are among the players who were traded or released, and while the team brought in some veteran talent like C.J. Spiller, Max Unger, and Brandon Browner, there will be more pressure on the club’s younger contributors to produce in 2015.

While Carolina and New Orleans could only muster seven wins apiece, the Falcons and Buccaneers combined for just eight in total. It’s not clear yet whether either team has a bounce-back season in store, but there are major changes afoot in both Atlanta and Tampa Bay — the Falcons hired former Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to be their new head coach, while the Buccaneers used the No. 1 overall pick in the draft to land a new quarterback, Jameis Winston. Quinn should help plug the leaks on the Falcons’ defense, and the Bucs could be an intriguing sleeper if Winston provides solid quarterback play.

What do you think? Does the NFL’s worst division from 2014 look any better in 2015? Which team do you expect to win the NFC South this season? Make your pick and let us know what you think in the comment section!

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