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Extension Candidate: Julio Jones

July 23rd, 2015 at 2:03pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the last two offseasons, a handful of productive wide receivers have signed new contracts, including Jeremy Maclin, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Torrey Smith, Eric Decker, and DeSean Jackson. Out of that group, only Nelson has a strong case for being placed amongst the league’s very best wide receivers, and the Packers star signed his extension well before reaching free agency, accepting a below-market deal.

In other words, it had been a while since a top wideout had signed a contract that reset the market for receivers, establishing a new baseline for the NFL’s best players at the position. Mike Wallace‘s five-year, $60MM deal, finalized in March 2013, was the last signing that qualified up until last week, when Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas inked new extensions at the 11th hour before the franchise-tag deadline. The Cowboys’ and Broncos’ Pro Bowlers had their deals structured a little differently, but they look identical in terms of years and overall base value — five years and $70MM.

The per-year salaries for Bryant and Thomas fall well short of Calvin Johnson‘s $16.27MM annual average value, but that deal was an outlier, and the fact that the two franchised stars easily topped Wallace’s $12MM annual average better reflects their place among the NFL’s best wideouts. It also sets a clear baseline for the next crop of elite receivers who will seek new contracts, such as A.J. Green and Julio Jones.Julio Jones

Green may sign an extension this year, but he has suggested that he doesn’t mind playing out the 2015 season without a new agreement in place, and the Bengals seem content to wait as well. That leaves Jones as the receiver most likely to sign a lucrative new deal in the coming weeks, or even the coming days, with training camp just around the corner.

At the moment, Jones is set to play the 2015 season on his fully guaranteed fifth-year option, worth $10.176MM, which puts him in a slightly different situation that Bryant’s or Thomas’. Atlanta will have the option of franchising the team’s No. 1 receiver in 2016, meaning Jones’ case could eventually play out like the ones resolved last week.

However, as we saw with Bryant’s situation in particular, a prolonged negotiation can often result in some unpleasantness along the way. The Cowboys wide receiver was the subject of reports suggesting he was having money problems, and whispers about off-field concerns and a Walmart video tape that may or may not exist followed him for most of the offseason. If the Falcons could get Jones’ contract situation squared away now, it could save both sides some unnecessary stress down the read, considering the team has made it clear the wideout is considered a key long-term piece in Atlanta.

Before we automatically place Jones in the same five-year, $70MM range as Bryant and Thomas, it’s worth considering how he stacks up to the franchised duo. On paper, his 2014 numbers certainly compare favorably — in 15 games, Jones racked up 1,593 yards and six touchdowns on 104 receptions, setting a new Falcons team record for most receiving yards in a season. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) also ranked him right behind Bryant and Thomas, despite the fact that he played fewer snaps than either player.

Jones’ ability to explode for huge yardage totals was on full display in Green Bay last December, when the 26-year-old went off for 259 yards on just 11 receptions in Week 14. His 106.2 receiving yards per game last season also topped the career-best marks for both Bryant and Thomas, and his eye-popping 116.0 mark during five 2013 games suggests last year’s mark wasn’t an aberration.

Still, there are some areas in which Jones doesn’t match up to the league’s other top receivers quite so favorably. He only appeared in five games in 2013 because of a fractured foot that brought his season to a premature end, and that’s not the only time he has dealt with injuries. The former sixth overall pick missed a game in 2014 after suffering a hip pointer, and has had multiple hamstring-related issues since entering the league in 2011.

Not including that 2013 season that was cut short after five weeks, Jones has only missed four games in his three other years in the NFL, so it’s not as if he’s a major question mark to be on the field going forward. But considering neither Bryant nor Thomas has missed a game over the last three seasons, it’s a factor the Falcons must take into account when they consider a long-term investment in their own No. 1 receiver.

Another factor worth considering for the Falcons is who Matt Ryan will be throwing the ball to for the next several years, if not Jones. The former first overall pick no longer has future Hall-of-Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez to rely on, and longtime slot man Harry Douglas is now in Tennessee. Roddy White is still in the mix, but White will turn 34 in November, and is no longer a perennial lock for 1,000 yards.

A quarterback like Ryan will post solid numbers no matter who’s on the receiving end of his passes, but it’s worth noting that in 2013, when Jones missed 11 games, the Falcons signal-caller threw a career-high 17 interceptions and averaged a career-low 10.3 yards per completion en route to a 4-12 season. It would be a significant blow to the Atlanta offense to be without Jones at any point over the next few years.

So what will it take for the Falcons and Jones to get a deal done before the 2015 season gets underway? In examining the situation for CBSSports.com, former agent Joel Corry suggests that an extension in the neighborhood of $15.25MM per year makes sense, based on the likely franchise-tag figures for 2016 and 2017. If we assume a five-year extension at that rate, tacked onto Jones’ $10.176MM salary for 2015, it would work out to a total of six years and $86.426MM, an average of about $14.4MM annually.

Depending on the guaranteed money attached to such an offer, that looks like a pretty good deal for Jones, who could edge out Bryant and Thomas to become the league’s second-highest-paid receiver in that scenario. However, I’m not sure whether the Falcons would sign on the dotted line quite yet, considering they still have the franchise tag at their disposal, and they may want to see Jones stay healthy for one more year.

Still, if the Falcons were to make such an offer, it wouldn’t be the first time they’ve gone out on a limb for Jones — Atlanta parted with two first-round picks, a second-rounder, and two fourth-rounders to move up for the former Alabama wideout in 2011, and it’s hard to imagine the team thinks any less of him now. After all, his career mark of 88.4 receiving yards per game places him atop the all-time NFL leaderboard, slightly ahead of Johnson, the league’s current highest-paid receiver. I don’t expect the Falcons to make an offer in the Megatron neighborhood to Jones, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club soon make him the league’s second-highest-paid wideout.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Tailgate: Who Will Win AFC South?

July 22nd, 2015 at 4:15pm CST by Luke Adams

We’re still several weeks away from the start of battles on the NFL gridiron, but there’s no offseason when it comes to debate amongst fans. Earlier this summer, we launched a new series here at PFR that will be known as the Community Tailgate. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. Every weekday, we’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

As the 2015 season inches closer, we’re examining each NFL division, asking you which team you expect to finish atop the East, North, South, and West. Having already taken a closer look at the East and North divisions, along with the NFC South, we’re shifting our focus to the AFC South, perhaps the league’s most lopsided division.

According to betting site Bovada.lv, no NFL team is more likely to win its division than the Colts, who are even heavier favorites in the AFC South than the Packers, Seahawks, or Patriots are in their respective divisions. That’s not a surprise. After all, the Colts have won the division by multiple games in each of the last two seasons, averaging 11 wins per year while their division rivals average just 4.5 wins.

There’s not much reason to expect the Colts to fall off in 2015 either, with Andrew Luck continuing to improve, and veterans like Frank Gore and Andre Johnson now at his disposal, along with first-round receiver Phillip Dorsett. There are still some questions on the defensive side of the ball in Indianapolis, but as long as Luck stays healthy, those defensive shortcomings may not be a factor until the postseason.

While the Colts aren’t necessarily one of the league’s most dominant teams, the lack of competition in the AFC South contributes to Indianapolis’ strong odds to win the division. The Titans and Jaguars finished 2-14 and 3-13 respectively a year ago, and while they may not be quite that dismal again this year, it’s hard to imagine either team making a playoff push, even with some encouraging free agent additions in Jacksonville, and new quarterback Marcus Mariota in Tennessee.

That leaves the Texans as the team most likely to challenge the Colts for the AFC South crown, as they did a year ago, finishing 9-7. J.J. Watt has a greater impact on a given game than any other defender in the league, and a healthy Jadeveon Clowney would make that Houston D even more dangerous. But there’s still no clear-cut solution at the quarterback position, where Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett will battle for the No. 1 job. Additionally, with Johnson in Indianapolis, Arian Foster and DeAndre Hopkins will be asked to carry a significant load on offense, and the unit could be in real trouble if either player gets hurt.

What do you think? Will the Texans knock the Colts out of the top spot? Will the Jaguars or Texans make a surprise run for the division? Or will the Colts cruise to another division title? Who do you expect to win the AFC South? Weigh in below in the comment section with your thoughts!

Offseason In Review: Chicago Bears

July 22nd, 2015 at 8:58am CST by Dallas Robinson

The Bears were a trendy playoff pick heading into the 2014 season, but a 5-11 finish was followed by the dismissal of both general manager Phil Emery and head coach Marc Trestman. Now, Chicago might be entering rebuilding mode, though they did use free agency to bring in several interesting players.

Notable signings:

There’s no doubting that Eddie Royal is a solid football player — he was excellent out of the slot for the Chargers last season, catching 72 passes for 778 yards and seven touchdowns. And while his $5MM annual salary isn’t all that exorbitant (although it’s higher than Julian Edelman, for example, and equal to that of Emmanuel Sanders), it’s pretty surprising that the Bears handed Royal $10MM in guarantees. That’s more than Torrey Smith, who is widely regarded as a superior pass-catcher, garnered, and it ranks 16th among all receivers (not counting rookie deals). It might seem like Royal has been around forever, but he just turned 29, so perhaps his relative youth helped him score this contract, but I have a hard time believing many other clubs would have agreed to this deal. Chicago must be certain that the Royal/Jay Cutler relationship is strong enough to post positive results over the next three years.

Making the Royal deal all the more surprising is the fact that he got more guaranteed money than the Bears’ true free agent prize, pass-rusher Pernell McPhee. It’s hard to even label McPhee with a position, as we’ve seen him get after the quarterback from all along the defensive line and several linebacker positions, and it will be interesting to see where new Chicago defensive coordinator Vic Fangio asks 26-year-old line up. It’s a little hard to believe that while his total contract is valued at nearly $40MM, McPhee was only able to secure $8.75MM in guarantees. That could have something to do with his relative lack of experience, as 2014 was the first season that he topped 600 snaps on defense. We’ve seen other defensive players leave Baltimore via free agency and tank before, but the Bears certainly have high hopes for McPhee, who ranked as the second-best 3-4 outside linebacker in the league, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Elsewhere on the defensive side of the ball, the Bears added veteran safety Antrel Rolle, inking the former Giant to a three-year deal. Chicago ranked 29th in DVOA against the pass last season, running out the likes of Chris Conte for extended stretches of time. At age 32, Rolle probably isn’t the same player that he was during his early career in Arizona or his first few seasons in New York, but he should add a level of stability to Chicago’s back end that it hasn’t had in recent years. He’ll also act as a complement, and perhaps mentor, to second-year pro Brock Vereen, the projected starter at free safety.

Rolle wasn’t the only experienced defensive back signed by the Bears this offseason, as they also brought in cornerback Alan Ball, who spent the last two years in Jacksonville. He isn’t a star (PFF rated him as the No. 40 CB in ’14), but like Rolle, he’ll bring a level of competency a Chicago defense that sorely needs it. During the offseason, some around the league had said that the Bears’ defense was so poor last year that they might need 10 new starters (with Kyle Fuller being safe). Given the presence of Fuller and Tim Jennings, Ball won’t be on those new starters, but he will be an insurance option if something happens to the top two corners.

Outside of those four signings, the Bears didn’t do all that much in free agency. However, I was particularly impressed by new general manager Ryan Pace‘s use of the minimum salary benefit to bring in players who could contribute at a low cost. Sam Acho, for instance, could turn out to be a valuable addition, as the 26-year-old former Cardinal is capable of playing either inside or outside linebacker. Mason Foster, also only 26 years old, has four years experience as a starting middle linebacker. Will Montgomery ranked as the league’s 15th-best center per PFF last year despite playing less than 600 snaps. Those were my three favorite MSB additions, but it’s not impossible that players such as Jacquizz Rodgers, Tracy Porter, or Daniel Thomas could contribute something in 2015, as well. Pace was able to bring in a bevy of high-quality role players who won’t embarrass themselves if thrust into increased playing time, and did so while handing out less than $600K in guarantees.

Notable losses:

The Bears didn’t seem to make much of an effort to re-sign Stephen Paea, as the defensive lineman told reporters when he signed with Washington that he chose the nation’s capital over Dallas, Detroit, and Tampa, with no mention of Chicago. The 26-year-old graded as the No. 11 DT in the league according to PFF, and given that he’s earning just slightly more annually than Eddie Royal, I wonder if the Bears would have been wiser to spend that ~$5MM per year on Paea. Although he’s only played defensive tackle thus far in his career, the 6’1″, 300-pounder has the size to play 3-4 end (and it’s the role he’ll play in Washington).

Sentimentally, Chicago lost two of its most beloved defenders, linebacker Lance Briggs (who remains unsigned) and cornerback Charles Tillman (who joined the Panthers). Briggs, 34, played in only eight games last season but was the Bears’ third-best defender per PFF, while Tillman appeared in just two games before injuring his triceps. It makes sense that neither was retained given that the club is going younger on defense, but I wonder if Briggs might be an option later in training if Vic Fangio is unhappy with his crop of inside linebackers.

Another long-time Bear — center Roberto Garza — was released in April despite having signed a one-year extension in December. The pact was inked by the club’s regime, so it’s clear that Ryan Pace & Co. didn’t value Garza at the same level. Garza, 36, had been with the Bears since the 2005 season, playing 154 regular season contests (145 starts) during that stretch, primarily at center and right guard. Chicago also declined to bring back fellow center Brian De La Puente, who had a very successful season in ’14 during which he saw 501 snaps, mostly while filling in at center for Garza during the early portion of the year. De La Puente is only 30 years old and had to surprisingly accept a one-year deal for the minimum salary benefit last offseason, and he remains unsigned as of this writing.

Safety Chris Conte offered youth (he’s entering his age-26 season) and experience (more than 600 snaps in each of his first three seasons), but he’s dealt with shoulder injuries throughout his career and has produced at merely an average level. In 2014, Conte graded as the No. 63 safety among 87 qualifiers per PFF. He’d been better than that in the two seasons prior, but he’s always been in the middle of the pack relative to his peers. The Bears moved on, adding the veteran Antrel Rolle as a replacement, while Conte followed ex-Bears HC Lovie Smith to Tampa Bay.

Josh Morgan actually played a decent number of snaps while acting as Chicago’s third receiver last season, but the team added Kevin White in the draft and will hope that Marquess Wilson will take the next step and supplant Morgan, who signed with the Saints. The only notable departure who saw more than 400 snaps was inside linebacker D.J. Williams, who, at age 33 and having dealt with multiple injuries in recent years, might be nearing the end of his NFL run.

 Trades:

The Bears didn’t move around at all during the draft, but they did swing a trade near the beginning of the league year, shipping veteran receiver Brandon Marshall to the Jets. Marshall was among the NFL’s best receivers as recently as 2013, but last season saw him catch just 61 passes for 721 yards, and he missed the final three games with broken ribs. The 31-year-old was due a 2015 base salary of $7.5MM and scheduled to count $9.575MM against the cap.

Marshall’s 2015 salary was set to become guaranteed on the third day of the 2015 league year, so Chicago was forced to quickly make a deal to clear his that total. The club will carry $5.625MM in dead money this year as a result of the trade.

Draft picks:

  • 1-7: Kevin White, WR (West Virginia): Signed
  • 2-39: Eddie Goldman, DT (Florida State): Signed
  • 3-71: Hroniss Grasu, OL (Oregon): Signed
  • 4-106: Jeremy Langford, RB (Michigan State): Signed
  • 5-142: Adrian Amos, S (Penn State): Signed
  • 6-183: Tayo Fabuluje, T (TCU): Signed

Kevin White and Eddie Goldman, Chicago’s top two selections, will be counted on to start almost immediately, with White replacing the production of Brandon Marshall, and Goldman pushing Will Sutton for snaps at nose tackle. It remains to be seen how White will acclimate to the NFL; there’s no doubting his speed and/or raw ability, but some wonder if he’ll need some time to refine his game.

Hroniss Grassu, like Goldman, will have to compete for snaps with Will Montgomery, and the veteran probably has the edge here, though Grassu could also act as insurance at guard in case Matt Slauson suffers another injury. Jeremy Langford will join Ka’Deem Carey, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Daniel Thomas in the race to back up Matt Forte, and most think Langford has the most long-term value of that group.

Other:

Phil Emery‘s run as the Bears’ general manager — highlighted by the ill-advised seven-year extension handed to Jay Cutler — officially came to end in December, and the team fired head coach Marc Trestman on the same day. Though the duo had fielded a largely successful club in 2013, 2014 saw number of issues — discord among players, offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer throwing Cutler under the bus, failed signings such as Jared Allen and Lamarr Houston — come to the forefront, leading the pair to be ousted after only two years on the job.

To replace Emery, the Bears settled on former Saints executive Ryan Pace as their new GM after a search that saw Chicago meet with Chris Ballard of the Chiefs, Brian Gaine of the Dolphins, and Lake Dawson of the Titans. At 37, Pace becomes the youngest general manager in the league. It was fair to wonder if Pace would employ the same sort of contract structures in Chicago that often led the Saints to having little or no cap space, but given that Pace’s title was player personnel director, he probably doesn’t deserve blame for New Orleans’ cap woes.

Aside from the Broncos, the Bears interviewed the fewest candidates of any club searching for a new head coach. Chicago was one of only two teams who were replacing its general manager in addition to its HC, so it’s possible they wanted to have Pace in place before getting too deep into its coaching hunt. But it’s also conceivable the Bears simply got lucky, as just four days after Denver parted ways with John Fox, Chicago scooped him up, signing the 60-year-old to a four-year contract. Fox, entering his 14th season as an NFL head coach, will bring Adam Gase with him from Denver to head up the offense, while adding former 49ers DC Vic Fangio to lead the defense (and shift to a 3-4 scheme).

The one true black mark of Chicago’s offseason was the signing of defensive end Ray McDonald, who had already been in legal trouble twice (domestic violence and sexual assault) before joining the Bears. Financially, it was a no-risk signing for the club, but the optics could not have been worse. The public relations backlash only increased when McDonald was arrested again just two months after inking his contract, this time on charges of domestic violence and child endangerment. Chicago released McDonald almost immediately, but the reaction following the incident was clear — Pace had made the first big mistake of his tenure.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. Jay Cutler, QB: $16,500,000
  2. Jared Allen, DE/OLB: $12,500,000
  3. Matt Forte, RB: $9,200,000
  4. Jermon Bushrod, LT: $8,050,000
  5. Lamarr Houston, DE/OLB: $6,990,000
  6. Pernell McPhee, OLB: $6,675,000
  7. Martellus Bennett, TE: $6,125,000
  8. Brandon Marshall, WR: $5,625,000 (dead money)
  9. Eddie Royal, WR: $5,500,000
  10. Tim Jennings, CB: $5,250,000

2014 will probably be something of a rebuilding year for the Bears. Turnarounds can happen quickly in the NFL, and given that Chicago hired a veteran coach in John Fox, it’s probably aiming to be in contention again in the very near future. But with three other solid teams in the division, it’s quite possible that the Bears are cellar-dwellers once again, barring vast improvement on the part of either Jay Cutler or the defense as a whole.

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

Offseason In Review: Detroit Lions

July 20th, 2015 at 7:54pm CST by Zachary Links

The Lions had 23 free agents and only $18.44MM worth of cap space this offseason, leading to some tough choices over the spring. Their limited space also meant saying farewell to a defensive superstar.

Notable signings:

The Lions had to kiss a lot of frogs before finding their kicking prince in 2014. Eventually, they settled on Matt Prater and locked him up to a three-year extension worth $9MM. Prater, 30, began the 2014 season by serving a four-game suspension in Denver for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, and was ultimately cut by the Broncos, ending a seven-year tenure with the club. After signing with the Lions, Prater was a little shaky in his first few games, but settled down and ended up making 21 of 26 field goal attempts. In 2013, he was a Pro Bowler, making all but one of 26 field goal attempts for the Broncos.

Back in February, Lions GM Martin Mayhew said that he would like to retain Mathis for the 2015 season and praised Mathis’ “position versatility.” In mid-March, he was able to check that off on his offseason to-do list. In 2014, Mathis started all 16 regular season games for the Lions, finishing with 54 total tackles, one interception for a touchdown, and two forced fumbles. The advanced metrics at Pro Football Focus (subscription required) placed him as the 12th best cornerback in the entire NFL last season with an overall score of 9.1. For reference, that posting put him ahead of such notables as Chris Culliver, Brandon Flowers, Aqib Talib, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

Before the start of free agency, the Lions locked up both of Matthew Stafford‘s backups – Dan Orlovsky and Kellen Moore. Orlovsky, 31, didn’t see game action in 2014, as Stafford stayed healthy for the whole season. The former Buccaneer last played in a regular season game in 2012 for Tampa Bay. Moore, 25, didn’t come close to appearing in a regular-season game for the Lions in 2014, and has yet to appear in a game during his three-year NFL career. However, the team was likely impressed by his performance during the preseason last year — Moore completed 35 of 51 passes for 361 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions during those exhibition games, with a passer rating of 108.4.

Isa Abdul-Quddus isn’t a big-name player, but as Birkett notes, he’s a valuable backup and a key player on special teams, where he racked up five tackles. He did end up starting four games last season, and posted 22 total tackles on the year. The Lions originally claimed the 25-year-old off waivers from the Saints last February.

Linebacker Josh Bynes, a restricted free agent, was not tendered an offer by the Lions, but he was re-signed at a lower rate. The 25-year-old appeared in 26 games for the Ravens from 2011 through 2014 and made nine starts along the way. He began the season on the Ravens’ taxi squad, but the Lions signed him to their active roster in late September.

Wide receiver Greg Salas, a fourth-round pick by the Rams in 2011, has bounced around the league a bit over the years but hopes to have a longer stay with the Lions. Over the course of his four-year NFL career, the 26-year-old has accumulated 43 receptions, including eight last year for New York — most of those catches came in Salas’ rookie season, when he hauled in 27 balls for the Rams.

Notable losses:

All season long, the possible departure of Ndamukong Suh hovered over Ford Field like a dark cloud. In March, what many viewed as the inevitable took place when Suh inked a lucrative free agent deal elsewhere. The good news for the Lions is that they won’t have to see a whole lot of their former start defensive tackle since he signed on with the AFC’s Dolphins. By PFF’s count, Suh racked up 72 total quarterback pressures in 2013, well ahead of any other DT besides Gerald McCoy, and he generated 57 quarterback pressures in 2014, tops in the league among defensive tackles. Another notable name, who we’ll get to in a bit, will now be charged with stuffing the run in Detroit.

Suh was the most notable defensive tackle to leave the Lions this offseason, but he wasn’t the only one. Nick Fairley inked a one-year deal with the Rams that will pay him a base of $5MM with incentives that can take him up to $7.5MM. Fairley had his 2014 season derailed by injuries, but he was very effective when healthy, as evidence by the widespread interest in him in March. A former 13th overall pick, Fairley had his best season in 2013, when he recorded 35 tackles and six sacks to go along with a pair of forced fumbles. Despite that impressive showing, the Lions elected not to exercise his relatively inexpensive ($5.477MM) fifth-year option for the 2015 season, allowing him to reach free agency.

Reggie Bush, 30, spent the last two seasons in Detroit. The former second overall pick had an excellent season in 2013, racking up more than 1,500 yards from scrimmage in just 14 games, establishing a new career high. However, he was plagued by injuries in 2014, and wasn’t overly effective when he did play. Overall, Bush accumulated just 297 yards on the ground and another 253 through the air in 11 games. Having inked a four-year, $16MM contract two years ago, Bush had been under contract through the 2016 season. A total of $3.556MM in dead money will now count toward the Lions’ cap in 2015.

Joining Suh in Miami will be defensive tackle C.J. Mosley, who hooked on just last month. Although he wasn’t as coveted a free agent as his ex-Lions teammate, Mosley was a solid contributor in Detroit last season as well. Pro Football Focus’ grades (subscription required) ranked him 26th out of 81 qualified defensive tackles, viewing him as slightly above average against both the pass and the run.

Over the years, Dominic Raiola became synonymous with two things: the Detroit Lions and dirty play. He’ll no longer be a part of the former in 2015 and it’s not clear if he’ll get a chance to show off the latter anywhere else. The veteran center was not re-signed as 2014 third-rounder Travis Swanson appears poised to take over the position.

Rob Sims, 31, helped give the Lions stability at left guard when he joined the team in 2010. Now, after his contract lapsed, he’s still looking for work. The veteran struggled early on in 2014 as he continued to recover from offseason injuries. He allowed two sacks against the Bills in Week 5 and garnered a negative grade from Pro Football Focus (subscription required) in half of the Lions’ first ten games. But once his injuries started to get behind him, Sims played well down the stretch. Starting in Week 11 against the Cardinals Sims earned a positive grade from PFF in every game.

Andre Fluellen, 30, spent nearly all of his career with the Lions since being drafted by the team in the third round back in 2008. However, he never played a significant role in Detroit, acting as a part-time contributor over the course of 77 career games (75 with Detroit). In 2014, Fluellen recorded 10 tackles, two sacks, and a fumble recovery in 183 defensive snaps. We’ll have to see if he takes on a bigger role with the Bills in 2015.

Trades:

  • Acquired DT Haloti Ngata and a 2015 seventh-round pick from the Ravens in exchange for a 2015 fourth-round pick and a 2015 fifth-round pick.
  • Acquired a 2015 fifth-round pick from the Buccaneers in exchange for DE George Johnson (RFA) and a 2015 seventh-round pick.
  • Acquired a 2015 first-round pick (No. 28; G Laken Tomlinson), a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 143), a 2016 fifth-round pick, and OL Manny Ramirez from the Broncos in exchange for a 2015 first-round pick (No. 23; DE/OLB Shane Ray).
  • Acquired a a 2015 third-round pick (No. 80; CB Alex Carter) from the Vikings in exchange for a 2015 third-round pick (No. 88; DE Danielle Hunter) and a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 143; TE MyCole Pruitt).
  • Acquired a 2015 fourth-round pick (No. 113; DT Gabe Wright) from the Eagles in exchange for a 2016 third-round pick.

The Lions lost the heart and soul of their defense to free agency this offseason but they moved quickly to find a replacement. The Ravens expressed optimism they would be able to retain the 31-year-old Haloti Ngata via some sort of contract restructure involving either an extension or a pay reduction, but that was not the case. On March 10th, Detroit received Ngata and a seventh-round pick while sending a fourth- and fifth-round pick to the Ravens. Ngata is reuniting with Teryl Austin, Detroit’s defensive coordinator, who previously coached in Baltimore. The Lions will assume Ngata’s base salary of $8.5MM for the upcoming season. The nine-year veteran has started 133 games in his career, accruing 25.5 sacks.

Defensive end George Johnson tried to make the case that he should be classified as an unrestricted free agent this offseason, but his battle fell short when the NFLPA eventually saw things Detroit’s way. As a restricted free agent, many expected that he would stay put in Detroit. The 27-year-old carved out a role for himself as the preferred bookend off of the bench in 2014 and the Bucs took notice, inking him to a three-year, $9MM deal. The pact included de-escalators for years two and three and the Lions initially disputed the offer sheet, saying that they were unclear on what exactly they had to match. Rather than get an arbitrator involved, the two sides agreed to a deal in which Detroit received a fifth-round choice for the defensive end.

Draft day was incredibly slow in terms of trades but the Lions made a move in the first round that armed them with multiple picks plus a veteran offensive lineman in Manny Ramirez. The Broncos were smitten with linebacker Shane Ray and when he fell to Detroit at No. 23, Denver came calling. The Lions grabbed guard Laken Tomlinson at No. 28.

Extensions and restructures:

Draft picks:

  • 1-28: Laken Tomlinson, G (Duke): Signed
  • 2-54: Ameer Abdullah, RB (Nebraska): Signed
  • 3-80: Alex Carter, CB (Stanford): Signed
  • 4-113: Gabe Wright, DT (Auburn): Signed
  • 5-168: Michael Burton, FB (Rutgers): Signed
  • 6-200: Quandre Diggs, CB (Texas): Signed
  • 7-240: Corey Robinson, T (South Carolina): Signed

By drafting Laken Tomlinson at No. 28, the Lions got themselves a very capable replacement for Rob Sims at left guard. The Duke standout started all four years in college and hasn’t allowed a sack in the last two seasons. Tomlinson was widely pegged as a second-round guy, but late in the first round was hardly a stretch for him. In his draft profile on Tomlinson, Mike Mayock of NFL.com cited his lack of range and athleticism as a concern.

In the second round, the Lions found someone to help replenish the running back chart and potentially overtake Joique Bell as the No. 1 guy. Last year, Bell ran for 860 yards and seven TDs and showed that he can move the chains, even with a weak offensive line. Bell will probably be the Week 1 starter, but Abdullah could see more carries come his way as the season goes on.

Other:

In March, Mayhew expressed some uncertainty about Riley Reiff’s option, but it would’ve been a huge surprise if the club had actually declined the option. In April, they did what we all knew they would do. By exercising Reiff’s fifth-year option, the Lions extended the 26-year-old’s rookie contract by one year, keeping him locked up through the 2016 season. In 2014, Reiff’s Pro Football Focus grade (subscription required) placed him in a tie for 23rd out of 84 qualified offensive tackles.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. Calvin Johnson, WR: $20,558,000
  2. Matthew Stafford, QB: $17,721,250
  3. Ndamukong Suh, DT: $9,737,500 (dead money)
  4. Haloti Ngata, DT: $8,500,000
  5. Stephen Tulloch, LB: $5,800,000
  6. Golden Tate, WR: $5,350,000
  7. Ezekiel Ansah, DE: $5,071,228
  8. DeAndre Levy, LB: $4,500,000
  9. Jason Jones, DE: $3,983,334
  10. Chris Houston, CB: $3,900,000 (dead money)

After finishing 11-5 and securing a Wild Card in 2014, the Lions will look to take a step forward in 2015 and overtake the Packers for the divisional crown. The big question is, how will their defense fair without one of the league’s most tenacious lineman?

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

Community Tailgate: Who Will Win NFC South?

July 20th, 2015 at 3:09pm CST by Luke Adams

We’re still over a month and a half away from the start of battles on the NFL gridiron, but there’s no offseason when it comes to debate amongst fans. Earlier this summer, we launched a new series here at PFR that will be known as the Community Tailgate. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. Every weekday, we’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

As the 2015 season inches closer, we’re examining each NFL division, asking you which team you expect to finish atop the East, North, South, and West. Having already taken a closer look at the East and North divisions, we’re shifting our focus to the NFC South, home of 2014’s most tepid division race.

A year ago, it only took seven wins – and, of course, a tie – for the Panthers to snag the NFC South crown, and Carolina is bringing back most of its key players that contributed to that team. Armed with a handful of veteran additions, including offensive tackle Michael Oher, cornerback Charles Tillman, and return specialist Ted Ginn Jr., the Panthers will be looking to repeat as division champions.

The Saints entered 2014 as favorites in the South, but it never came together for Drew Brees‘ squad, and the disappointing season resulted in a major overhaul over the last few months. Jimmy Graham, Kenny Stills, Curtis Lofton, and Ben Grubbs are among the players who were traded or released, and while the team brought in some veteran talent like C.J. Spiller, Max Unger, and Brandon Browner, there will be more pressure on the club’s younger contributors to produce in 2015.

While Carolina and New Orleans could only muster seven wins apiece, the Falcons and Buccaneers combined for just eight in total. It’s not clear yet whether either team has a bounce-back season in store, but there are major changes afoot in both Atlanta and Tampa Bay — the Falcons hired former Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to be their new head coach, while the Buccaneers used the No. 1 overall pick in the draft to land a new quarterback, Jameis Winston. Quinn should help plug the leaks on the Falcons’ defense, and the Bucs could be an intriguing sleeper if Winston provides solid quarterback play.

What do you think? Does the NFL’s worst division from 2014 look any better in 2015? Which team do you expect to win the NFC South this season? Make your pick and let us know what you think in the comment section!

Extension Candidate: Nick Foles

July 19th, 2015 at 8:50pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Quarterback Nick Foles burst on the scene as a member of the Eagles in 2013, appearing in 13 games and totaling league bests in yards per attempt (9.12) and and rating (119.2 rating) on the strength of an astounding 27:2 touchdown:interception ratio. As a result, expectations with Foles were sky high entering last year, but he missed half the season because of a broken collarbone and his numbers took a significant step back (6.96 YPA, 13 TDs, 10 INTs and an 81.4 rating).

Eagles coach and football czar Chip Kelly decided Foles wasn’t an ideal fit for his offense, so he traded the 26-year-old to the NFL: St. Louis Rams-Press ConferenceRams in a deal involving draft picks and, more importantly, Sam Bradford – another QB who has battled inconsistency during his career – earlier this offseason.

In St. Louis, Foles will try to rebound from a mediocre 2014, give the Rams their first taste of consistently above-average QB play since Marc Bulger’s heyday nearly a decade ago, and help the team break its 10-year playoff drought. If Foles accomplishes those things – or, at the very least, reestablishes himself as a legit starter – he’ll be in line to cash in by next offseason as a free agent. There’s a chance it could happen before then, though, as the three-year veteran and the Rams have both expressed interest in a contract extension. Head coach Jeff Fisher acknowledged discussions on a new deal, USA Today’s Howard Balzer tweeted in June, after NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport reported (via Twitter) that the initial talks between the two sides would “ramp up” prior to the season. Foles has already stated both a fondness for St. Louis and a desire to remain there, but noted that his agent would handle contract negotiations, ESPN’s Nick Wagoner tweeted last month.

Given the fact that he has put up less-than-stellar numbers in two of three seasons, it would be a gamble for the Rams to give Foles an extension prior to ever seeing him throw a pass in their uniform. But, considering how important quarterbacks are and how badly Rams QBs have struggled during their playoff drought, it might be a worthwhile risk for general manager Les Snead to lock up Foles now instead of waiting and possibly seeing his price rise exponentially thanks to a bounce-back season.

The question is: How much is it going to cost for the Rams to keep Foles long term? Wagoner took a look at the issue earlier this month and concluded that the Bengals’ Andy Dalton could be used as a comparable for a hypothetical Foles contract.

Dalton signed a six-year extension worth up to $115MM (with a guaranteed $17MM, which has already been paid out) last summer. At the time, Dalton had three things in common with present-day Foles: three years’ experience, one Pro Bowl appearance, and career-best outputs in 2013. In terms of counting stats, Dalton – unlike Foles – had three straight seasons of at least 3,300 yards, including a 4,200-plus-yard campaign in 2013, three consecutive years of 20-plus touchdown passes (33 in ’13) and quarterbacked three playoff teams in a row. Incidentally, Dalton and Foles were one spot apart in Pro Football Focus’ ranking system for QBs in ’13 (Dalton was 16th, Foles 17th – subscription required).

Foles hasn’t accomplished enough to earn a deal in Dalton’s neighborhood in terms of total value, but Dalton’s contract isn’t as enormous as it looks. Given the fact that Bengals have already paid Dalton his guaranteed money, his deal isn’t an anvil going forward. That allows the Bengals to evaluate Dalton on a year-to-year basis and decide whether to continue on with him. Wagoner notes that a similar structure would make sense for the Rams on a hypothetical Foles deal.

As far as length, annual value and guarantees go, Wagoner wrote that something in the range of $12MM to $14MM per annum for four years (with roughly $20MM in guarantees) might get an extension done. If Foles signs a contract in that vicinity and pans out, he’d be a steal for the Rams. Those financial numbers would be relatively modest for a solid starter, as the yearly salary and total guaranteed money would place just inside the top 20 among today’s QBs, according to Over The Cap. For Foles’ part, accepting a contract along those lines would allow him to secure himself financially now and, if he fares well, give him another crack at a hefty payday in a few years.

There would be risk on both sides if they were to strike a deal, clearly. If the two are realistic about Foles’ worth, though, the reward should outweigh any wariness.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2015 Release Candidates: NFC South

July 19th, 2015 at 4:33pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Most clubs have fairly set rosters at this point, as OTA, minicamp, and preseason performances won’t do much to alter roster composition. The majority of key releases came in March, but there are still several scenarios where certain contributors could lose their roster spot in the coming months. For the most part, we’ll focus on situations where the cap savings would be in excess of $1MM.

Because free agency has already passed, financial ramifications won’t play a huge role in these decisions; there aren’t a ton of high-profile free agents on which to spend that saved money, so these calls will mostly be made based on performance. However, any cap space saved through these potential releases could be rolled over into 2016, so that’s something clubs have to consider.

We’ve already looked at the AFC East, NFC East, AFC North, NFC North, and AFC South, so let’s dive into the NFC South…

Atlanta Falcons:

  • Jonathan Babineaux, DT: The Falcons have accumulated quite a bit of defensive line depth over the past few years, signing Tyson Jackson, Paul Soliai, Adrian Clayborn, and O’Brien Schofield and using draft picks on Vic Beasley, Ra’Shede Hageman, and Grady Jarrett, as well as re-signing Kroy Biermann earlier this year. The lone constant has been the 34-year-old Babineaux, who has been with Atlanta since being selected in the second round of the 2005 draft. Given his age, the club’s newfound depth at his position, and the fact that the Falcons could save nearly $3MM by cutting him, he sounds like an ideal candidate for release, right? However, new head coach Dan Quinn likes to use a rotation along his defensive line, and more importantly, Babineaux was pretty good last year, grading as the league’s No. 28 defensive tackle and rushing the passer quite effectively, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Prediction: not released.

Carolina Panthers:

  • Jerricho Cotchery, WR: Spending 70% of his time in the slot last season, Cotchery nearly replicated his reception and yardage statistics from the year prior, catching 48 balls for 480 yards, but his touchdown numbers lagged far behind, as he scored just once as compared to 10 times in 2014 with the Steelers. The Panthers invested a second-round pick in Michigan receiver Devin Funchess, and the club likely hopes that he’ll ascend to the starting lineup immediately, joining last year’s first-rounder Kelvin Benjamin. Free agent addition Ted Ginn Jr. figures to take some of Cotchery’s snaps in the slot, and other than Ginn Jr., Carolina is going with at youth movement at receiver, with Jarrett Boykin, Mike Brown, and Stephen Hill fighting for playing time. Cotchery isn’t a bad player, but he doesn’t seem to fit with the team’s roster construction, and the Panthers can save $1.5MM by cutting him. Prediction: released.
  • Roman Harper, S: Harper, 32, started all 16 games for the Panthers last season, posting 41 tackles and a career-high four interceptions. Based on PFF’s metrics, Harper produced his best season since 2010, but his overall grade of +0.1 was still just barely above-average, ranking 46th among 87 qualifiers. Carolina’s issues in the secondary have been well-documented in the past couple years, but now that the club has some other options in the back end — Tre Boston emerged as a rookie last year, and the Panthers signed Kurt Coleman to a two-year deal in March — I don’t see Carolina being too desperate to hanging on to Harper, especially given that they can save $1.5MM by severing ties. Prediction: released.
  • Mike Tolbert, RB: Tolbert is an odd player in today’s NFL: He doesn’t fit the H-back mold, instead acting as a running back/fullback hybrid that doesn’t really exist in the league anymore. After suffering a hairline fracture in his left leg during Week 3 of last season, Tolbert was placed on IR/designated to return, ultimately coming back in Week 13. He’s nearly 30 years old, but given that Carolina doesn’t have a ton of depth behind Jonathan Stewart after releasing DeAngelo Williams, Tolbert should be safe. The Panthers would incur $1MM in dead money by cutting him. Prediction: not released.

New Orleans Saints:

  • Ben Watson, TE: Those around the Saints have talked up third-year pro Josh Hill as the leading candidate to replace tight end Jimmy Graham, who was traded to the Seahawks over the offseason. But Hill doesn’t have much in the way of experience, having logged just 20 receptions during his first two seasons, and earlier today Mike Triplett of ESPN.com wrote that he expects New Orleans to use a committee approach at tight end. All of which is to say that 34-year-old Ben Watson is probably safe for 2015; the club would only save $1.5MM by cutting him, and they probably value his veteran presence enough to keep him around. Prediction: not released.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

  • Michael Koenen, P: Koenen is the sixth-highest paid punter in the league in terms of annual value, and his 2015 cap hit is also sixth at his position. However, he finished fourth-worst in terms of net punting average last year, and though he finished with a positive grade from PFF, he still ranked only 23rd among 41 qualifiers. Koenen has no remaining bonus money or guarantees left on his current deal, so the Buccaneers could cut him at anytime, clearing out his $3.25MM salaries for ’15 and ’16. Maybe they’ll wait until training camp or the preseason to see how Koenen looks, but I think they’ll probably cut him and look for a cheaper (and younger) option. Prediction: released.
  • Brandon Myers, TE: Now 29 years of age, Myers has seen a swift decline since his high-water mark season with Oakland in 2012: His receptions have dropped from 79 to 47 to 22 in the past three seasons, while his receiving yards have decreased from 806 to 522 to 190. 2014 second-round pick Austin Seferian-Jenkins is expected to take on a larger role next season, Luke Stocker will maintain his in-lone blocking job, while Tampa also re-acquired Tim Wright via waivers. It doesn’t look like there will be a spot for Myers, or his $3MM+ in cap charges over the next two seasons. Prediction: released.

PFR Originals: 7/12/15 – 7/19/15

July 19th, 2015 at 2:43pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content and analysis produced the PFR staff during the past seven days:

  • Four of the five franchise-tagged players reached extensions with their respective clubs, and Luke Adams posted a recap of all the action complete with contract details.
  • In our Offseason In Review series, Zach Links covered the Browns, Steelers, and Vikings; Rory Parks looked at the Packers; I wrote up the Bengals; and Sam Robinson examined the Giants.
  • Working through each division, I touched on the AFC South while looking at 2015 candidates for release.
  • Writing that Muhammad Wilkerson probably won’t be able to reach the $100MM stratosphere occupied by J.J. Watt (and now) Justin Houston, Rob DiRe wondered if the Jets defensive end will be able to reach a long-term deal worth $70MM in his examination of the extension candidate.
  • Luke went over some important remaining 2015 NFL dates on the calendar, including league meetings, the trade deadline, and more.
  • We continued our Community Tailgate series, posting topics for discussions and encouraging you to voice your thoughts in the comments section. The subjects covered by Luke and Zach last week:
    • Is Justin Houston was worth a $100MM contract? (link)
    • Would the Broncos would reach a long-term pact with Demaryius Thomas? (link)
    • Which franchise player long-term extension with the most surprising? (link)
    • Who will win the NFC North? (link)
    • Will Chris Johnson land a contract? (link)

Important Remaining 2015 NFL Dates

July 17th, 2015 at 6:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Way back in December, with the 2014 NFL season winding down, we took a look ahead at many of the important offseason dates on the league’s calendar, including the opening of free agency and draft weekend. However, the last of those key dates came will come and go by the end of July, so with training camps and the preseason nearing, it’s time to revisit the NFL calendar and check out the most crucial remaining dates in 2015.

Via an official announcement from the league, here’s a breakdown of several of the key dates we’ll be keeping an eye on at PFR in the coming weeks and months:

August 11: Summer league meeting in Schaumburg, Illinois to discuss Los Angeles situation.

September 1: Teams must reduce their 90-man rosters to 75 players by 3:00pm central time.
September 5: Teams must reduce their 75-man rosters to 53 players by 3:00pm central time. Any players on the active/PUP or active/non-football injury or illness lists may be moved to the reserve versions of those lists.
September 6: Claiming period for players waived during final roster cuts ends at 11:00am central time. After that time, teams may establish a practice squad of 10 players. After 3:00pm central time, teams are permitted to place one player on the injured reserve list with the designation to return.
September 9: After 3:00pm central time, all contracts for each team must fit under the salary cap (top-51 rule expires at 11:00pm central time).
September 29: Waiver priority order adjusted to become based on the reverse order of 2014’s standings.

October 6-7: Fall league meetings in New York City.
October 16: Players who are on the reserve/PUP and reserve/NFI lists are allowed to begin practicing for a period not to exceed 21 days. Players must be activated or placed on injured reserve by 3:00pm central time on the day following the expiration of that 21-day window.

November 3: Trade deadline at 3:00pm central time.
November 4: All released players subject to waivers for rest of regular season and postseason.
November 17: Unsigned franchise players and draft picks must sign with their respective teams by 3:00pm central time in order to play in the NFL in 2015.
November 24: Players who are on the reserve/PUP and reserve/NFI lists who have not begun practicing are no longer eligible to be activated after 3:00pm central time.

Community Tailgate: Will Chris Johnson Sign?

July 17th, 2015 at 3:57pm CST by Luke Adams

We’re still more than a month and a half away from the start of battles on the NFL gridiron, but there’s no offseason when it comes to debate amongst fans. Earlier this summer, we launched a new series here at PFR that will be known as the Community Tailgate. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. Every weekday, we’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

Today, our Community Tailgate feature focuses on a report from Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com, who wrote today that veteran running back Chris Johnson, having survived a drive-by shooting earlier this year, hopes to land with an NFL team after training camps get underway.

“Right now is kind of a dead period,” Johnson told La Canfora on CBS Radio. “But things should pick back up when (camps start). I’ve just been working hard, getting back healthy, getting in shape. Now it’s just waiting and working out and seeing what my next situation is going to be.”

Johnson, who was shot during that aforementioned drive-by, has since been medically cleared for all football activities, and La Canfora spoke to some NFL executives who believe the former Titan showed more burst last year in New York than he had in some previous seasons.

It may take an injury or two for Johnson to draw any serious interest, but a few execs who spoke to La Canfora cited the Cowboys as a possible suitor. La Canfora also identifies the Ravens, Chiefs, Broncos, and Patriots as possibilities, particularly if any of those teams have injury problems in their respective backfields.

What do you think? Will we see Johnson on a regular season roster this year, or is his time as an NFL contributor behind him? If he does continue his playing career, which team do you think he’ll be playing for this fall? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below!

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