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2015 Release Candidates: AFC South

July 14th, 2015 at 6:04pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Most clubs have fairly set rosters at this point, as OTA, minicamp, and preseason performances won’t do much to alter roster composition. The majority of key releases came in March, but there are still several scenarios where certain contributors could lose their roster spot in the coming months. For the most part, we’ll focus on situations where the cap savings would be in excess of $1MM.

Because free agency has already passed, financial ramifications won’t play a huge role in these decisions; there aren’t a ton of high-profile free agents on which to spend that saved money, so these calls will mostly be made based on performance. However, any cap space saved through these potential releases could be rolled over into 2016, so that’s something clubs have to consider.

We’ve already looked at the AFC East, NFC East, AFC North, and NFC North, so let’s dive into the AFC South…

Houston Texans:

  • Garrett Graham, TE: After posting a solid a 49/545/5 line during the 2014 campaign (and subsequently signing a three-year, $11.25MM deal), Graham regressed last season, catching just 18 balls for 197 yards and one score, missing the final four weeks of the season after suffering a high ankle sprain. Graham’s numbers can somewhat be forgiven due to the quality of quarterback play in Houston last season, but he wasn’t effective as a blocker, either. He’s due $3MM in base salary in each of the next two seasons, and while the Texans could save a decent amount (about $3.1MM) by releasing him now, he’s set to be the club’s starting tight end. Perhaps if Ryan Griffin or second-year pro C.J. Fiedorowicz — neither of who was overly productive last season — shows something during the preseason, there might be an infinitesimal chance that Graham is cut. But given head coach Bill O’Brien‘s affinity for tight end usage, it’s unlikely he’d cut ties with Graham. Prediction: not released.

Indianapolis Colts:

  • Gosder Cherilus/Lance Louis/Donald Thomas, OL: While three-fifths of the Colts’ offensive line is relatively set — LT Anthony Castonzo, C Khaled Holmes, RG Todd Herremans — the left guard and right tackle positions are in a state of flux. 2014 second-rounder Jack Mewhort is versatile enough to play at both spots, and he’ll likely fill one of those roles; whether Indianapolis slots him in at guard or tackle could determine the roster fate of one or more of Cherilus, Louis, or Thomas. Recovery from injuries could also play a factor here, as Cherilus is coming back from knee surgery (and just had a scope in January), while Thomas has missed the better part of the last two seasons dealing with a torn quadriceps. Overall it’s a difficult scenario — Louis has the worst track record but would save the Colts the least money if released, while Cherilus and Thomas each have a better history of production but would save Indy $4MM each if cut. Unfortunately, it doesn’t sound like Thomas’ recovery is going very well, so for now I’ll guess that he’ll be out. Meanwhile, if Mewhort takes over right tackle, and the club can rely on some combination of Louis, Joe Reitz, and CFL signee Ben Heenan to man left guard, I could see Cherilus being released as well. But given that the Colts would incur $2.9MM in dead money (as opposed to that $4MM in savings), I think he’ll stick for one more season. Prediction: Thomas released.
  • Robert Mathis, LB: Like Thomas, Mathis missed last season after suffering a major injury — in Mathis’ case, a torn Achilles — and also like Thomas, his rehab process isn’t going as well as he’d hoped. The 34-year-old reportedly suffered a setback in February, and two months later he told SiriuxXM Radio that his recovery was lagging. The Colts actually extended Mathis last fall as part of an interesting contractual compromise. Indy wasn’t obligated to compensate Mathis during the 2014 season because he was on the non-football injury list, as a result of his Achilles tear occurring during a private workout, but the club paid him anyway. In exchange, Mathis converted his $3MM roster bonus that was set to be paid in March 2015 into per-game roster bonuses, meaning he’ll only get that money if he’s on the field. The Colts also tacked an extra year (2016) onto his deal, but that year contains no guaranteed money. In short, if the team feels that Mathis isn’t healthy enough to contribute during the upcoming season, they can now release him with far less financial penalty. Whether he will be healthy enough is hard to say until training camp gets underway, but it’s hard to bet on a player in his mid-30s coming off a significant injury who plays a position that relies on explosion. Prediction: released.

Jacksonville Jaguars:

  • Chris Clemons, DE: Signed to a four-year deal just last offseason that reunited him with Jaguars head coach(and former Seahawks DC) Gus Bradley, Clemons disappointed in his first season with the club, grading as the league’s second-worst 4-3 defensive end, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), a far cry from his tenure in Seattle when he ranked as a top-12 each year from 2010-12. Turning 34 years old in October, it doesn’t appear that Clemons has much left in the tank. Had third overall selection Dante Fowler Jr. not torn his ACL earlier this year, I would have thought it nearly 100% certain that Clemons is released. Jacksonville still has a bevy of defensive line talent available, however, so I’d still put the odds at around 85%. Clemons had no guaranteed money included in his contract beyond 2014, so the Jags won’t be strapped with any dead money. Prediction: released.
  • Toby Gerhart, RB: Gerhart didn’t transition well in his shift from Adrian Peterson‘s backup to Jacksonville’s starter; he finished the year with just 101 carries, averaging only 3.2 yards per carry. With the Jaguars having used a second-round pick on running back T.J. Yeldon (who will presumably pair with 2014 pleasant surprise Denard Robinson), and with Gerhart not being due any guarantees for the remainder of his deal, it seemed likely that he’d be cut. But reports have indicated that the Jags are likely to keep Gerhart around, using him in something of a fullback/H-back hybrid role. The SB Nation blog Big Cat Country, in fact, posted an excellent piece earlier this week examining how new Jaguars OC Greg Olson could utilize Gerhart in a manner similar to Marcel Reece (whom Olson coached in Oakland). Prediction: not released.
  • Ziggy Hood, DL: Like Clemons and Gerhart, Hood was another 2014 offseason addition who wasn’t all that productive during his first season in northeast Florida. A former first-round pick of the Steelers, Hood is certainly a capable rotational defensive lineman. But the Jags have been collecting a stable of DLs over the past year or so, and with Jared Odrick, a recovering Sen’Derrick Marks and Roy Miller, Ryan Davis, Andre Branch, and rookie Michael Bennett, I thought there might be a chance Hood is let go. But given that Marks will still be coming back from his torn ACL, Hood is probably safe. Prediction: not released.

Tennessee Titans:

  • Michael Griffin, S: The 30-year-old Griffin’s roller coaster-like production over the past four seasons is very strange: PFF graded him as a top-15 safety in both 2011 and 2013, but as a bottom-five safety in both 2012 and 2014. Griffin is due to count $8.1MM against the cap in 2015, he’s coming off both shoulder and knee surgeries, and he was the subject of trade rumors last fall, so calling him a candidate for release is not a stretch. But the Titans don’t have much safety depth behind Griffin and free agent addition Da’Norris Searcy, so Griffin will likely stick on the 53-man roster. Prediction: not released.
  • Andy Levitre, G: Levitre has never been the same player he was in Buffalo since joining Tennessee on a six-year, $48.6MM contract before the 2013 season, but he hasn’t been bad by any stretch of the imagination. He actually ranked as a top-15 guard in 2013 before falling to No. 45 last season (per PFF), but even that 2014 ranking meant he was simply a middle of the pack lineman. Of course, “serviceable” isn’t what the Titans were looking for when they guaranteed Levitre $13MM, but now that it sounds like he’s completely healthy, it doesn’t make sense for the Titans to give up now. Prediction: not released.
  • Ropati Pitoitua, DL: Despite placing within the Titans’ top 10 cap charges, Pitoitua was demoted to the second team during summer practices in favor of last year’s fourth-round pick, DaQuan Jones. Now 30 years old, Pitoitua isn’t a great pass rusher, but he can hold up against the run. The question becomes whether a reserve run-stuffing defensive end is worth a $3.5MM+ cap hit, especially when the club could save nearly $3MM by releasing him. The answer is probably no, but given that Pitoitua could act as insurance if Jones flops, and the fact that the Titans don’t have any cap space issues, I think he’s safe. Prediction: not released.
  • Charlie Whitehurst, QB: With Marcus Mariota in town (yet still unsigned), and 2014 draft pick Zach Mettenberger on the roster, I can’t see any way that the Titans choose to keep Whitehurst (and his $2.5MM cap figure) on the roster. Unless the club does decide to trade Mettenberger — a scenario that likely would have already played out — the Titans will probably cut Whitehurst, saving $2MM in the process. Prediction: released.

Community Tailgate: 7/14/15

July 14th, 2015 at 4:24pm CST by Zachary Links

We’re still almost two months away from the start of battles on the NFL gridiron, but there’s no offseason when it comes to debate amongst fans. Earlier this summer, we launched a new series here at PFR that will be known as the Community Tailgate. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. Every weekday, we’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

Today, we’ll be discussing the impasse between Demaryius Thomas and the Broncos. The Broncos and Thomas‘ agent, Todd France, have recently exchanged proposals, which signifies some level of progress as the Wednesday deadline looms. However, there’s a significant divide between the two sides that needs to be crossed in less than 24 hours. Denver is offering “substantially more” than the contract of Minnesota’s Mike Wallace, who is currently the league’s second-highest paid receiver with a deal that averages $12MM a year. However, Thomas wants a deal that would exceed Calvin Johnson‘s mammoth contract.

Megatron, for the uninitiated, is in the midst of a $113MM+ deal with the Lions that is paying him upwards of $16MM per season with nearly $49MM guaranteed. GM John Elway doesn’t feel that Thomas should get quite that much. Johnson’s contract, the Broncos argue, is an outlier when it comes to wide receiver salaries. In fact, Elway (allegedly) told Cowboys COO Stephen Jones as much when the two (allegedly) discussed their respective contract talks with Thomas and Dez Bryant. At the time, Johnson was being paid under the old rookie scale and the Lions were forced to give him that hefty long-term deal in order to avoid their cap being hampered in the short-term.

Thomas’ stats over the last three years compare favorably to Megatron’s. The Broncos standout has hauled in 297 catches for 4,483 yards and 35 touchdowns while Johnson has 277 catches for 4,533 yards and 25 touchdowns. Thomas is also coming off a career year in which he racked up 111 catches and averaged more than 100 yards per game. Thomas’ camp was also quick to point out that Megatron’s deal was actually signed when the salary cap was $120.6MM rather than $143.3MM.

Earlier today, Jason Cole of Bleacher Report noted that he doesn’t expect Elway to budge significantly when it comes to the figures being discussed for Thomas. Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Thomas’ camp bend with a compromise that looks more like Wallace’s deal than Johnson’s.

What’s your gut feeling at this time? Will the Broncos and Thomas work out a long-term deal before the Wednesday deadline? If so, how much will Thomas get from Denver? Let us know in the comment section below!

Offseason In Review: Cleveland Browns

July 13th, 2015 at 6:56pm CST by Zachary Links

Notable signings:

Veteran cornerback Tramon Williams had interest from all around the league as the incumbent Packers expressed interest in retaining him, the Saints met with him, and the Eagles, Titans, Vikings, and Ravens also showed varying levels of interest. However, it was the Browns who came away with his signature. Williams started all 16 games for the Packers last season, notching three interceptions, and grading as the league’s 34th-best CB among 108 qualifiers per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He’ll be tasked with replacing Buster Skrine, who we’ll talk about in a bit.

Speaking of replacements for notable players, let’s talk a bit about Dwayne Bowe. Bowe, 30, was part of the underachieving and record-setting group of Chiefs wide receivers that managed to go the entire 2014 season without catching a single touchdown pass. It was the third straight mediocre season for Bowe, who has averaged approximately 59 receptions and 743 yards per year since 2012, on the heels of back-to-back 1,100-yard seasons in 2010 and 2011. Were Bowe’s woes his own fault, or was he just not getting the right looks in KC’s offense? We’ll find out in 2015.

All year long, Browns fans wondered whether it would be Brian Hoyer or Johnny Manziel under center for Cleveland in 2015. Now we know it definitely won’t be Hoyer (now in Houston) and Manziel probably won’t be the starter given all of his issues. Instead, that mantle will likely belong to offseason acquisition Josh McCown. The Browns will be McCown’s ninth franchise since he entered the league in 2002 and third in the last three seasons. The 6-foot-4, 213-pounder spent the 2014 campaign in Tampa Bay and performed poorly in 11 games for a Buccaneers team that finished with the NFL’s worst record. He threw for 11 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and completed only 56.3% of his passes – good for a dismal 70.5 rating. The Bucs subsequently cut McCown in February.

Randy Starks was displaced from Miami when the Dolphins signed Ndamukong Suh but he quickly found a new home in Cleveland. Starks, 31, went to two Pro Bowls with the Dolphins and was an interior anchor on the defensive line since joining the team in 2009, missing just one game in his six seasons in Miami. In Cleveland, Starks will help solidify a Browns defensive line that underwhelmed in 2014. In addition to signing Starks, the team also hopes to get a healthy John Hughes back in the lineup for a full season, which should help offset the loss of defensive tackle Ahtyba Rubin.

Brian Hartline had a down season in 2014, catching only 39 passes and two touchdowns. However, he’s been a solid possession receiver in the past, topping 1,000 yards in both ’12 and ’13. The Chiefs, Patriots, Texans, and Bears were among the other teams who had expressed interest in adding the veteran pass-catcher, but the Browns came out on top. Hartline was cut loose by Miami back in February.

Browns safety Tashaun Gipson was the last restricted free agent on the market, but he officially got under contract in June when he signed his RFA tender. Gipson will play the 2015 season on his RFA tender before becoming eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2016. While the 24-year-old has reportedly discussed a long-term contract with the Browns, he likely won’t hesitate to test the open market if given the opportunity, since he’d certainly draw interest from teams in need of talent in the secondary. Potential suitors this year were almost certainly scared off by the second-round pick they would have had to surrender had they been able to sign Gipson away from the Browns. Over the last two years, Gipson has started 26 games for the Browns, racking up 146 tackles during that stretch and showing a knack for coming up with big plays — he has grabbed 11 interceptions during the last two seasons, returning two of them for touchdowns.

Jordan Cameron took his talents to South Beach and Rob Housler has been brought in to try and replace some of his production. Housler, 27, had a disappointing 2014 season, as he notched just nine receptions for 129 yards. However, he posted respectable numbers in 2012 and 2013, averaging 42 catches for 436 yards during those two seasons.

Notable losses:

Skrine played second fiddle to Joe Haden in Cleveland and he’ll now be the No. 3 cornerback with the Jets behind Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. In 2014, Skrine showed that he is durable by playing 1,152 snaps and he held opposing QBs to a respectable 56.9% completion percentage. It’ll be interesting to see how the Browns’ secondary looks with Tramon Williams in Skrine’s place.

Originally, Jordan Cameron was said to have reached an agreement on a new contract with Cleveland worth $15MM for two years. However, in one of the offseason’s biggest swerves, Miami made a second push to sign Cameron once they heard about the agreement and ultimately landed him. Cameron struggled with injuries in 2014, managing to play in 10 games but only catching 24 passes. However, he had a breakout season in 2013, when he caught 80 passes for nearly 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns.

Despite his winning record, Brian Hoyer didn’t receive much interest from the Browns this offseason, as the team opted instead to bring in former Buccaneers starter Josh McCown. The 29-year-old saw his first extended run as a starter in 2014, and though his overall numbers – including a 55.3% completion percentage, 12 touchdowns to 13 interceptions, and a 76.5 passer rating – weren’t overly impressive, he led the Browns to a 7-6 record in his starts before giving way to Johnny Manziel and Connor Shaw near the end of the season. Now, rather than returning to Cleveland to compete again with Manziel, Hoyer has reunited with Bill O’Brien, who coached him during his years with the Patriots.

Jabaal Sheard spent all four years of his career in Cleveland but he’ll now continue with the Patriots. Sheard, who turns 26 in May, appeared in all 16 games for the Browns last season and made five starts. In that time, the edge defender racked up 44 straight tackles, three pass deflections, and 2 sacks. Sheard, for his part, is happy to be with a winner.

“Coming from a not-so-good program to a great program that has been winning and doing well, I’ve just been excited,” Sheard told Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald. “I want to win in the league, and I want to be part of a great organization. That was a big part of me signing.”

Extensions and restructures:

Hughes, a 2012 draftee, became extension-eligible this winter for the first time, and the Browns didn’t waste much time in locking him up. The former third-round pick has started just seven games in his first three seasons in Cleveland, but appeared poised for a bigger role in 2014 before he landed on the injured reserve list for a good chunk of the season due to an MCL injury. Although he only logged 212 defensive snaps for the Browns in 2014, Hughes was productive in his limited action, per Pro Football Focus’ metrics, which gave him a +5.2 grade (subscription required). The 26-year-old was similarly productive in 2013, ranking among PFF’s top 10 3-4 defensive ends despite playing only 402 defensive snaps.

Trades:

  • Acquired a 2015 second-round pick (No. 51; DE/OLB Nate Orchard), a 2015 fourth-round pick (No. 116), and a 2015 sixth-round pick (No. 195; FB/TE Malcolm Johnson) from the Texans in exchange for a 2015 second-round pick (No. 43; ILB Benardrick McKinney) and a 2015 seventh-round pick (No. 229).
  • Acquired a 2015 third-round pick (No. 96; DT Xavier Cooper) and a 2015 seventh-round pick (No. 219; ILB Hayes Pullard) from the Patriots in exchange for a 2015 fourth-round pick (No. 111; G Tre Jackson), a fifth-round pick (No. 147), and a sixth-round pick (No. 202; TE A.J. Derby).
  • Acquired a 2015 fourth-round pick (No. 123; WR Vince Mayle), a 2015 sixth-round pick (No. 198; TE Randall Telfer), and a 2015 seventh-round pick (No. 241; CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu) from the Cardinals in exchange for a 2015 fourth-round pick (No. 116; DL Rodney Gunter).
  • Acquired P Andy Lee from the 49ers in exchange for a 2017 seventh-round pick.

Draft picks:

  • 1-12: Danny Shelton, DT (Washington): Signed
  • 1-19: Cameron Erving, OL (Florida State): Signed
  • 2-51: Nate Orchard, DE/OLB (Utah): Signed
  • 3-77: Duke Johnson, RB (Miami): Signed
  • 3-96: Xavier Cooper, DT (Washington State): Signed
  • 4-115: Ibraheim Campbell, S (Northwestern): Signed
  • 4-123: Vince Mayle, WR (Washington State): Signed
  • 6-189: Charles Gaines, CB (Louisville): Signed
  • 6-195: Malcolm Johnson, FB/TE (Mississippi State): Signed
  • 6-198: Randall Telfer, TE (USC): Signed
  • 7-219: Hayes Pullard, ILB (USC): Signed
  • 7-241: Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB (Oregon): Signed

The Browns beefed up its run defense big time with the signing of Starks and also with the selection of Danny Shelton at No. 12. The Washington star led the nation in fumble recoveries with five and had 16 tackles for loss in 2014 while finishing second on the team with 93 tackles. Strong and athletic, the 6’2″ athlete should go a long way towards helping the Browns improve on their No. 32 run defense.

With their second first-round choice, the Browns tapped Florida State offensive lineman Cameron Erving. Erving arrived at LSU years ago as a defensive tackle and didn’t do much but he saw great results when he eventually switched to the other side of the ball. The youngster will be used to help shore up the right side of Cleveland’s line but can also be used as leverage against center Alex Mack, whose contract is up after this year.

Other:

Since parting ways with previous offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, the Browns conducted an extensive search that saw the team linked to current and former coaches like Marc Trestman, Jim Hostler, Brian Angelichio, Anthony Lynn, Frank Cignetti, Tom Clements, and Mike Martz, among others. In the end, their search led them to John DeFilippo. While DeFilippo was never identified as the frontrunner, he also interviewed for the job a year ago when the team chose Shanahan, and had an “outstanding” interview at that point, per head coach Mike Pettine.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. Joe Haden, CB: $11,700,000
  2. Joe Thomas, LT: $10,200,000
  3. Paul Kruger, OLB: $8,200,000
  4. Alex Mack, C: $8,000,000
  5. Desmond Bryant, DL: $7,000,000
  6. Donte Whitner, S: $6,750,000
  7. Tramon Williams, CB: $6,500,000
  8. Karlos Dansby, LB: $5,500,000
  9. Phil Taylor, DT: $5,477,000
  10. Andrew Hawkins, WR: $5,000,000

The Browns made some very necessary upgrades in the offseason, including improving upon their atrocious defensive line. But, as usual, there are major question marks at the quarterback position and Josh Gordon‘s absence certainly doesn’t help matters. Cleveland might improve upon its 7-9 mark from last season, but it’d be somewhat surprising to see them win the AFC North.

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

Community Tailgate: 7/13/15

July 13th, 2015 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

We’re still almost two months away from the start of battles on the NFL gridiron, but there’s no offseason when it comes to debate amongst fans. Earlier this summer, we launched a new series here at PFR that will be known as the Community Tailgate. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. Every weekday, we’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

With the July 15 deadline for franchised players less than 48 hours away, we’re looking today at the unsigned player deemed most likely to work out a long-term deal with his current team. While Jason Pierre-Paul begins his recovery from a hand injury and Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas try in vain to match Calvin Johnson‘s contract, Justin Houston and the Chiefs appear to have a reasonable chance of reaching an agreement.

Houston, 26, has been one of the league’s best pass rushers in recent years, racking up 43 sacks in 43 games over the past three seasons, including an NFL-best 22 in 2014. You could make a case that only J.J. Watt is a more valuable defender than Houston, and recent reports have suggested that the Chiefs pass rusher could be seeking a contract in the neighborhood of Watt’s six-year, $100MM deal.

Ndamukong Suh easily surpassed Watt’s deal this winter, but Suh had a ton of leverage, hitting free agency after the Lions deemed it impractical to use the franchise tag on him. A player signing an extension with his current team is unlikely to land that sort of payday, which is why Houston’s camp figures to identify Watt’s extension as a more attainable target.

Houston reportedly tested positive for marijuana at the NFL’s 2011 scouting combine, which resulted in him dropping to the third round. The league’s policy on substance abuse calls for strict penalties for repeated marijuana violations, but by all accounts, Houston has stayed out of trouble since entering the league. While that doesn’t mean that a long-term investment is risk-free for Kansas City, the last four years likely strengthened the team’s confidence in the 26-year-old. Whether the club is confident enough to pay him roughly $16MM per year remains to be seen.

What do you think? Is Houston worthy of a six-year, $100MM-type contract, like the one Watt received? If not, what do you think is a fair price for Houston? How high should the Chiefs be willing to go before they call off negotiations and try to simply bring their star pass rusher back on his one-year deal? Jump into the comment section below and let us know what you think!

Offseason In Review: New York Giants

July 13th, 2015 at 1:30pm CST by Sam Robinson

The most notable Giants offseason story is still developing, as Jason Pierre-Paul‘s status is fluid after the All-Pro end underwent a finger amputation stemming from the now-infamous fireworks mishap. The Giants did make many notable moves before the final link to their legendary Super Bowl-winning defensive end corps put his season in jeopardy. However, this incident overshadows them, considering Big Blue didn’t bring in or lose a high-profile player in free agency in its quest to rebound from a 6-10 mark — its worst finish since 2004.

Notable signings:

When Rashad Jennings was healthy, he was clearly the Giants’ best runner last season. But overall, the team struggled on the ground, ranking 23rd in rushing yards, with their free agent acquisition starting just nine games. Andre Williams offered flashes of potential, but the rookie remained raw, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry. The experience the 2014 fourth-rounder accrued, coupled with an enviable size/speed package, appeared to have the ex-Boston College runner’s stock pointing upward. But Williams’ playing time figures to be reduced this season after the Giants splurged on Vereen.

The Patriots’ preferred third-down back will be the Giants’ best backfield receiving target since Tiki Barber, with a key path toward passing-down work in New York. Vereen’s 52 receptions last season would’ve outdone any Giant runner since Barber’s 58 in ’06. Needless to say, the fifth-year veteran represents a significant upgrade for the Giants’ passing game. Jennings served as a three-down back under optimal circumstances last season but will lose that third-down role to Vereen, who could loosen Jennings’ grip on early-down carries. Although Vereen’s 96 totes last season doubled as his career high, while Jennings has three straight 100-plus-carry campaigns. The ex-Pats pass-catcher will now make the 10th-most money, on average, among backs, per OverTheCap.

Another former Patriot would’ve easily been the Giants’ biggest free agency coup, but Devin McCourty balked at Big Blue’s offer and returned to New England. Instead, the Giants doled out some of that money in curious fashion, handing Harris $3.5MM per season. This marks the second straight offseason the Giants signed a returner, and they gave a less-accomplished specialist far more money than they did to Trindon Holliday last year. Although an injured Holliday departed without playing for the Giants, Harris is set to be the team’s second-highest-paid wideout in 2016 with a $3.8MM cap number set to dwarf Odell Beckham‘s.

Special teams weren’t exactly a Giants strength last season — 18th in kickoff-return average; 19th on punt returns — but devoting that kind of cash to a player who at best will be fourth on a healthy receiver depth chart is interesting. Harris didn’t have a particularly good contract year in the return game but compiled solid seasons prior to that to give the indication that while the payment is outlandish, the Giants will be in better hands in the return game. The contract of Thomas, who was the worst Jaguars linebacker last season on Pro Football Focus’ metrics, figures to give the former Jags and Bears cog a good chance to start in New York after accruing just 12 in four seasons. It seems like Big Blue could’ve acquired this kind of player in the draft at a much cheaper rate.

In light of Will Beatty‘s torn pectoral malady that will force the left tackle to miss at least the first half of the regular season, Newhouse could reascend into a starting role. That kind of responsibility hasn’t been good to the journeyman tackle, who’s ranged from inconsistent to consistently bad in his four-year career, but the Giants have him slotted to start at right tackle entering training camp. This allows Justin Pugh to move to guard, where Giants coaches believe the former first-round pick can play at an All-Pro level. As strange as that may sound after Pugh’s adequate-at-best tackle output, he may have to relocate again if Newhouse struggles while Beatty’s out.

Notable losses:

The obvious subtraction on this roster comes at safety, where New York lost its top three performers. With Rolle, Demps and Brown departing, the Giants enter training camp thin on their back line. Playing 16-game seasons in each of his five Giants dockets, Rolle left to sign with the Bears. While on the downside of his career after a shaky 2014, Rolle held key leadership responsibilities for the Giants and was a Pro Bowl-caliber player as recently as 2013.

Two years removed from his freakish eight-interception 2012 slate, Brown did not follow that up with seasons which maintained that value. The former seventh-round Raiders draft pick ended up taking a one-year deal from the Texans. PFF rated Demps worse than Brown last year, and the two formed an unremarkable coalition at free safety. But their work may be better than what could be in store at that spot this season. Fifth-round picks with zero combined snaps, Cooper Taylor and Mykkele Thompson, from 2014 and 2015, respectively, will join Nat Berhe (32 career snaps) in the tussle for the job. Gordy and Bennett Jackson may join this makeshift battle as former corners who were reassigned due likely to the lean depth here.

The Giants’ secondary reboot also meant moving on from Bowman and Thurmond, respectively, leaving Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Prince Amukamara as the only New York secondary cogs who participated in more than half of last season’s snaps due back. Signed to a one-year, $3.5MM deal out of Seattle last March, Thurmond played just 67 snaps last season before heading to injured reserve, signing with the Eagles for almost the same amount and lobbing a salvo at Tom Coughlin on the way out. Thurmond’s injury, though, helped create time for Brown, Jayron Hosley, Mike Harris and Trumaine McBride, the latter receiving positive marks at PFF in each of his first two seasons with the team. With no cornerbacks selected in the draft, this quartet of veterans represents the Giants’ outside depth.

Save for DRC and Robert Ayers, much of the Giants’ 2014 free agent corps did not produce favorable returns, with Walton at the forefront of these shortcomings. The former Broncos starter who did not exactly come to New York with a track record of success lived up to his reputation by grading out as the fourth-worst center in the league, per PFF. Axed one year into a two-year, $5MM deal, Walton, after starting auditions with two teams, appears set for utility work in Miami. Walton’s departure paves a path for Weston Richburg to slide over from left guard, where he sputtered as a rookie, and play his natural center position. Richburg will be the Giants’ third starting center in three years.

Kiwanuka, once part of the famed NASCAR package during Super Bowl title campaigns, saw injuries help him deteriorate into a liability the past two seasons. The nine-year Giant’s release saved the team $4.83MM in cap space and leaves Amukamara as the team’s longest-tenured defender. With Kiwanuka gone and Pierre-Paul’s status uncertain, Ayers will be asked to play a bigger role after performing well in 386 snaps last season. Though the former first-rounder sputtered when given a full-time role early in his Denver tenure, Ayers quietly has become a solid performer, stringing together three straight respectable campaigns. He might be ready to assume more responsibility this season.

Extensions and restructures:

As our Dallas Robinson noted recently, Jenkins and Beason were likely to be asked to relinquish their playbooks had they not agreed to these restructures. Once a coveted free agent, the 34-year-old Jenkins occupies just a $2.1MM hold on the Giants’ cap this year. Still just 30, Beason may be close to the end, having missed 40 games the past four seasons. The former first-round pick may be the best option the Giants have to deploy in the middle, but Beason certainly can’t be counted on for steady availability. Jameel McClain may again be needed to provide emergency help after playing 993 snaps last year and finishing as the Giants’ tackles leader.

Schwartz enters the season as the Giants’ most valuable offensive lineman. Despite missing most of last year and helping to plunge the New York offensive front deep into mediocrity in doing so, Schwartz will be counted on in 2015 to deliver the kind of production he did for the Chiefs in 2013. And he’ll be attempting to do so at a bargain rate. PFF still favored Schwartz’s run-blocking on a sieve-like unit that featured horrendous gap creation, leading to the Giants’ 3.6 yards-per-carry average that ranked 28th in the league. A Schwartz-Pugh guard tandem will be in a better position to raise that figure than their predecessors.

Trades:

  • Acquired a 2015 second-round pick (No. 33; S Landon Collins) from the Titans in exchange for a 2015 second-round pick (No. 40; WR Dorial Green-Beckham), a fourth-round pick (No. 108; FB Jalston Fowler), and a seventh-round pick (No. 245; WR Tre McBride).

Draft picks:

  • 1-9: Ereck Flowers, T (Miami): Signed
  • 2-33: Landon Collins, S (Alabama): Signed
  • 3-74: Owa Odighizuwa, DE (UCLA): Signed
  • 5-144: Mykkele Thompson, S (Texas): Signed
  • 6-186: Geremy Davis, WR (Connecticut): Signed
  • 7-226: Bobby Hart, T (Florida State): Signed

The aforementioned dearth at safety made the trade to No. 33 vital for the Giants. With Collins projected by some to go in the first round, paying this price to move up seven spots to select the first-team All-American could prove critical. Collins’ range, which is not his strong suit, will be tested immediately come Week 1, considering the Giants’ strong safety situation won’t exactly force the rookie to put together a strong training camp to crack the starting lineup. The Alabama alum will see extensive action, as will the team’s top-10 pick.

Flowers will open the season as the Giants’ starting left tackle, as opposed to the more familiar right side where he was expected to line up. Although the ex-Hurricane has his detractors, the Giants now appear wise to have addressed this position in a prominent spot; Flowers represents Big Blue’s biggest investment in a rookie offensive lineman since they selected guard John Hicks at No. 5 in 1974. Pugh did not work out as hoped at right tackle, and Flowers has a more imposing rookie challenge in preparing to set the left edge for a unit that performed poorly in 2014. The 6-foot-6 standout did not allow a sack against ACC competition and obviously has a high ceiling, but Flowers will need to ramp up his consistency against competition a bit more daunting.

Destined for a nickname, Odighizuwa may be in a position to contribute earlier than his college profile of 12.5 sacks in four seasons suggests (although PFF refers to this facet of Odighizuwa’s game as underrated). But two hip surgeries do raise concerns for the newest contributor at an edge-rushing position that’s suddenly one of the Giants’ questionable areas after being a massive strength for most of the past 35 years.

Other:

The Pierre-Paul ordeal is the most interesting issue plaguing one of the Giants’ veteran bastions, but it’s not the only one. Victor Cruz‘s recovery from a torn patella tendon places the slot target’s ability to reach his former performance standard in question, and Eli Manning is entering the last year of his deal.

The 55-year-old Spagnuolo returns to the post he occupied in 2007 and ’08, but he doesn’t remotely have the weaponry at his disposal those teams possessed. After guiding a Saints corps that set an NFL record for yielded yardage in 2012, Spagnuolo has seen his reputation take a hit since the Rams hired him as their head coach in 2009. An alarming number of Fewell’s charges went down with season-ending injuries, but the Giants weren’t soaring before the ailments piled up. Fewell’s five-year tenure is long in modern coordinator standards, and the unit’s repeated pratfalls in recent slates (they were ranked 31st in 2012 and 29th last season in yardage allowed) probably necessitated a transition.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. Eli Manning, QB: $19,750,000
  2. Jason Pierre-Paul, DE: $14,813,000
  3. Victor Cruz, WR: $8,125,000
  4. Will Beatty, LT: $8,050,000
  5. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB: $7,250,000
  6. Prince Amukamara, CB: $6,898,000
  7. Jon Beason, LB: $4,154,166
  8. Jameel McClain, LB: $3,400,000
  9. David Baas, C: $3,225,000 (dead money)
  10. Steve Weatherford, P: $3,075,000

Even though they were bound to get better with the potential for a Week 1 featuring Schwartz and Cruz back among the starting 11, the Giants probably improved offensively this offseason. But the issues with their top offensive and defensive linemen cloud any such progression. The latter leaves New York’s pass rush in doubt, and plenty will have to coalesce to envision the Giants contending with the Cowboys and Eagles for the division title deep into the season.

Contract information from OverTheCap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

Extension Candidate: Muhammad Wilkerson

July 12th, 2015 at 7:42pm CST by Rob DiRe

The Jets haven’t had a lot to root for on the field during the last couple of years of Rex Ryan’s reign in New York, especially as the short-lived era of John Idzik came to an end. However, as the team is looking forward under the new leadership of Todd Bowles and Mike Maccagnan, they do so with a roster rebuild that was started under the previous regime.

Nov 24, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; New York Jets defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson (96) against the Buffalo Bills at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

One of the crown jewels of the team is coming into the option year of his rookie-contract, which the Jets exercised and will pay him $6.969MM in 2015. As Bowles looks to build a defense that can be one of the best in the AFC for years to come, signing Wilkerson to a long-term extension could give him a cornerstone player to build around.

Wilkerson’s talent has been on the line between underrated and acknowledged for most of his career. As a 3-4 defensive end in a blitz-heavy scheme, he isn’t in a position to put up large numbers in the traditional statistical categories, only notching 24 sacks in his four seasons, including a robust 10.5 in 2013. When some analysts refer to him as the second-best player at his position in the NFL, the player he is being compared to is J.J. Watt, who has two Defensive Player of the Year trophies and 57 sacks over the same time frame.

While it may be flattering for Wilkerson to be in that company, Watt’s status as the NFL’s undisputed top defender makes his sidekick seem quite small, especially playing the same position as him. Even the other notable defensive linemen in the league often come from the 4-3 mold, with only Calais Campbell of the Cardinals joining Watt as a 3-4 defensive end in the Pro Bowl in 2015. Traditional 4-3 pass rushers from defensive end also accompanied Watt on the 2014 Pro Bowl roster, and only Haloti Ngata represented the position aside from Watt in 2013.

Therefore, despite being regarded as one of the top players at his position, Wilkerson has never made the Pro Bowl in his career, even though he was second-team All-Pro in 2013, and ranked as the 74th best player and 42nd best player in the NFL according to the NFL Newtwork’s list.

Still, advanced metric sites like Pro Football Focus (subscription required) have rated Wilkerson extremely highly, listing him as the second-best 3-4 defensive end in 2012 and third best in 2014. Watt was first both of those years, and Wilkerson’s teammate Sheldon Richardson ranked second this past season. Accordingly, he was named a Pro Football Focus All-Pro in both of those seasons.

The complications of Wilkerson’s case for an extension come from the presence of Richardson, and are only additionally muddled by the drafting of Leonard Williams with the fifth-overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. The Jets may make a case for having the best defensive line in football this coming season, which is notable for a fan base that saw its elder brother Giants win two Super Bowls on the strength of its defensive line in spite of mediocre quarterback play.

On the other hand, the strength along the defensive line also provides the Jets a certain amount of leverage in these talks, with adequate replacements for Wilkerson already on the roster and under team control on rookie contracts going forward. They can afford to play hardball with Wilkerson, knowing they will have two more years plus a fifth-year option with Richardson and the full length of Williams contract as well. That doesn’t include the potential to use the franchise tag on these players to add a year of team control to their contracts, an option that extends to Wilkerson as well.

All that team control, as well as the in-house options, decidedly suppresses Wilkerson’s market with the Jets. Richardson commented earlier this offseason that both he and his teammate were worth those big $100MM contracts, and even more. “We don’t just want J.J. Watt money. We want it all,” said Richardson. “We want Suh money. Hopefully everybody wants that type of bread in this league.”

Watt signed a six-year contract worth $100MM last offseason, and Suh signed a six-year contract worth more than $114MM earlier this year. Wilkerson’s situation more closely resembles Watt’s as a 2011 draft pick. In both cases, the team had the fifth-year option and franchise tag at their disposal.

Suh, drafted a year earlier, was not subject to the newer rookie-wage scale and therefore had a bloated salary with no team options to fall back on. His contract was renegotiated for short-term cap room, but the Lions could not afford to use the franchise tag or re-sign him, and he hit unrestricted free agency.

If Wilkerson keeps his performance up and waits out his time with the Jets, free agency would be the best place for him to secure a $100MM contract. Manish Mehta doesn’t believe the team would consider that sized contract in an extension, at least not this year.

Letting Wilkerson walk and waiting for Richardson to come up for an extension seemed like a good idea, especially if the Jets thought Richardson is the better player. Unfortunately for Richardson, his recent suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy weakens his case as well, therefore tipping the scale back in Wilkerson’s favor.

Richardson’s suspension was for marijuana use, and the policy for that offense includes a number of steps before suspension. That knowledge suggests that this isn’t his first positive test, and that this is an ongoing problem for Richardson as long as marijuana is included in the substance abuse policy. Add to that how outspoken Richardson has been about the type of money he eventually wants to command, and the team might see a safer option in Wilkerson.

As he is overshadowed by Watt on the field, if Wilkerson and the Jets are able to come to an agreement on an extension, he will also be overshadowed by Watt’s bank account. Based on production, given similar leverage, it is unfair to expect Wilkerson to match those numbers, even if waiting until closer to the end of the team’s control usually shifts leverage to the player.

In the scenario where the two sides are able to come together on a number, I think throwing Watt’s contract out would be a given, but given that after Watt’s $100MM the next highest total value for a contract is Calais Campbell and Cameron Jordan‘s similar five-year, $55MM deals, there is a lot of breathing room in between to work out, according to OverTheCap.com.

Even going to high profile 4-3 defensive ends like Robert Quinn‘s four-year deal worth $57MM and Charles Johnson‘s six-year, $76MM contract could be the high marks for Wilkerson. Johnson’s deal is an outlier in terms of production when accounting for the position he plays, but his position is also more valuable. Quinn has more star power, and his $14MM+ yearly salary is a big number to approach. If Wilkerson could get a six-year deal worth $70MM, that would put him in an elite tax bracket, well above all his contemporaries save for Watt.

However, it seems like both sides would have to make serious concessions to make that happen. The vibe coming from the Jets organization as well as Wilkerson’s camp is that they are comfortable playing out the string. I would still expect Wilkerson to be franchised after this season, but if he does reach free agency, I’d guess he gets a lot closer to the number he wants than he will with the Jets.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Bengals

July 12th, 2015 at 3:41pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The early-2000’s “Cincinnati Bungles” moniker is no longer appropriate for the club that resides in the Queen City. Yes, the team has gone one-and-out in the playoffs in each of the last four seasons, and yes, head coach Marvin Lewis is still 0-6 overall in the postseason. But the mere fact that that Bengals have earned a playoff berth for four consecutive years is impressive in and of itself, and the organization — through its approach to the draft, free agency, and the salary cap — is on its way to becoming one of the more respected franchises in the NFL. How did the offseason’s happenings affect their fortunes?

Notable signings:

Armed with nearly $35MM of cap space when the offseason began, the Bengals — as is their wont — didn’t do all that much during free agency, handing out just $15.655MM in total guarantees. Sticking to their strategy of signing and retaining familiar players, Cincinnati gave money to just three players — linebacker A.J. Hawk, receiver Denarius Moore, and safety Shiloh Keo — who hadn’t played for the club at some point during their career.

Defensive end Michael Johnson was one of four signees who had previously spent time in the Queen City; the 28-year-old had spent the first five seasons of his career with the Bengals before defecting to Tampa Bay prior to the 2014 season. The Buccaneers released Johnson just one season into a five-year deal, incurring $7MM in dead money in the process, and the Bengals quickly swooped in (warding off former defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer and the Vikings) to reunite with the veteran end, agreeing to a four-year pact that, while worth $26MM in total, contains just $4.5MM in guaranteed money. Johnson isn’t the sort of elite pass rusher than many thought Cincinnati — which finished with an NFL-low 20 sacks — might go after in free agency, but he did post two top 10 finishes among 4-3 defensive ends during his last two seasons with the Bengals, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), thanks in large part to his acumen against the run.

Unlike Johnson, guard Clint Boling never left Cincinnati, re-signing on a four-year, $26MM deal on the second day of free agency after the Jets, Falcons, and Vikings all expressed interest. Boling, 26, has been a full-time starter along the Bengals’ front five for three seasons, starting 44 games during that span. After grading as PFF’s 20th-best guard in 2014, he’ll continue to add stability to an offensive line that, for 2015 at least, should remain intact, before serving as a veteran presence in the years to come, when said line could see some upheaval — more on that later.

At linebacker, Cincinnati re-signed Rey Maualuga, who will man the middle of the defense for the seventh straight season. In our Bengals Offseason Outlook post earlier this year, I wrote that Maualuga should probably expect to be retained via a modest, one-year deal, similar to the contracts he’d signed with the club in the past. So it was a bit surprising to see the Bengals not only commit to three years with the former second-round pick, but hand him the same amount of guaranteed cash that Johnson received. Maualuga has never been an above-average player, but he’s reliable and well-versed in the team’s defensive scheme, qualities Cincinnati obviously values. The club also brought in former Packer A. J. Hawk on a short-term agreement, and while the veteran has certainly lost a step, he’s capable of acting in a reserve role, and could be valuable insurance in the event that Vontaze Burfict continues to deal with injuries.

The rest of Cincinnati’s additions are a mix of backup/special team-type players (Eric Winston, Cedric Peerman), veterans unlikely to make the final 53-man roster (Brandon Tate, Devon Still) and interesting dart throws, one of which is receiver Denarius Moore. Though it seems as though he’s been in the league for quite a long time, Moore is still only 26 years old, and though his 2015 was a far cry from his 2012-13 numbers — when he averaged a 48/618/6 line — he’s proficient enough to serve as the Bengals’ fourth receiver.

Notable losses:

The Bengals didn’t add much in free agency, but they also didn’t lose a ton, either, as their biggest loss is tight end Jermaine Gresham, who as of this writing still hasn’t found a new team (largely due to his undergoing back surgery earlier this year). Gresham played the most 2014 snaps of any departing free agent (900 on the dot), but he wasn’t overly effective outside of pass blocking situations. A return to Cincinnati can all but be ruled out — Gresham reportedly angered some in the locker room by failing to play through injuries near the end of the season (though the fact that he had surgery might prove that said injuries were more serious than originally thought) — as the club will turn to Tyler Eifert and two draft picks to fortify the tight end position.

At age 36, Terence Newman actually played the second-most snaps of any Bengals cornerback, as the club continued to take the slow route in terms of Dre Kirkpatrick and Darqueze Dennard‘s development. But with those two primed to take on a larger role in 2015, Leon Hall assigned to slot duties, and fellow veteran Adam Jones still hanging around, it didn’t make sense for Cincinnati to retain Newman, who’d been with with the club for three years. Newman, a first-round pick way back in 2003, followed Zimmer to Minnesota, inking a one-year, $2.5MM deal. Taylor Mays — a defensive back who had primarily become a dime linebacker — also won’t be back, having already joined two NFC North clubs (Vikings, then Lions) this offseason.

Quarterback Jason Campbell is three years younger than Newman, but it sounds as if he’s already set to call it a career, as reports last month indicated that although nothing is official, Campbell is planning to retire in the near future. The news isn’t that important in and of itself (Campbell only attempted 19 passes last year), but it does mean that second-year pro A.J. McCarron is poised to take over the No. 2 quarterback job. The Bengals have already signed and released Terrelle Pryor, and while veteran Josh Johnson is back in town after a one-year hiatus, most expect McCarron to run with the backup job in 2015.

Along the offensive line, Cincinnati saw the loss of both Marshall Newhouse and Mike Pollak — both played around 400-450 snaps last season, but Pollak was the more effective player according to PFF, garnering a +5.0 grade compared to Newhouse’s -11.6. The Bengals didn’t attempt to re-sign Newhouse, as he he wouldn’t have had a role given that the club spent two high draft picks on offensive tackles. Pollak, meanwhile, was released, and subsequently retired a few months later.

Finally, defensive end Robert Geathers may have had the quietest exit of any player who had spent more than a decade with a club. The 31-year-old once posted 10.5 sacks (back in 2006) and had started 104 games during his tenure in Cincinnati, but he hadn’t registered a start in more than two years. Given that he ranked dead last in PFF’s 4-3 defensive end rankings, it’s conceivable that Geathers’ career is over.

 Draft picks:

  • 1-21: Cedric Ogbuehi, OL (Texas A&M): Signed
  • 2-53: Jake Fisher, T (Oregon): Signed
  • 3-85: Tyler Kroft, TE (Rutgers): Signed
  • 3-99: Paul Dawson, LB (TCU): Signed
  • 4-120: Josh Shaw, DB (USC): Signed
  • 4-135: Marcus Hardison, DT (Arizona State): Signed
  • 5-157: C.J. Uzomah, TE (Auburn): Signed
  • 6-197: Derron Smith, S (Fresno State): Signed
  • 7-238: Mario Alford, WR/KR (West Virginia): Signed

Both Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher were popular Bengals targets in mock drafts leading up to the actual event, but almost everyone was surprised that the club snagged both of them. Not only did most people think Fisher would be gone by pick No. 53, but no one surmised that Cincinnati would use its first two picks on offensive lineman, especially given that the team’s front five is mostly set. But with Andrew Whitworth and Andre Smith both heading for free agency at year’s end, the picks could prove astute.

Ogbuehi, recovering from a ACL tear, is a candidate to begin the season on the physically unable to perform list. Even if he is healthy enough to play at some point this season, his snaps figure to be limited by the presence of Whitworth. While his ascendance to playing time might wait until 2016, Fisher could see a fair amount of snaps this year. Cincinnati coaches worked Fisher at nearly every spot along the line during rookie minicamp and OTAs, so he could fill in either at tackle or guard in the event of an injury (or even supplant Smith at right tackle if the veteran struggles again in 2015).

Elsewhere, Tyler Kroft and C.J. Uzomah will be pressed into duty almost immediately, as they’re expected to act as starter Tyler Eifert‘s backups at tight end. Paul Dawson, who fell in the draft due to character concerns, has been lauded as a steal by those in the know, with some painting him as a poor man’s Vontaze Burfict. Josh Shaw and Derron Smith will compete for backup spots in the secondary, while Mario Alford is likely to push Brandon Tate off the roster.

It’s odd, but the Bengals rookie that figures to see the most snaps in 2015 (barring injuries) is Kroft, the team’s third-round pick. Given the state of the club’s offensive line, Ogbuehi’s recovery from injury, and the lack of depth at tight end, Kroft will be thrown into the fire immediately.

Other:

Marvin Lewis inked his 8th new contract/extension with the Bengals, and for the second consecutive year, he signed a deal that will extend his contract by one season. Thanks to the fresh contract, he won’t be a lame duck coach, but if the Bengals once again fail to win a playoff game, it’s fair to wonder if Lewis will be around much longer. Lewis, the second-longest tenured head coach in the NFL, owns the record for most career victories by a Bengals head coach.

Cincinnati picked up the fifth-year options on both Dre Kirkpatrick and Kevin Zeitler, and an April report indicated that the club is anxious to sign both to long-term extensions. The Bengals just invested a hefty sum in fellow guard Clint Boling, and drafted offensive lineman with their first two picks, so they might have some leverage over Zeitler as talks progress. Kirkpatrick is probably more important to lock up — as Leon Hall and Adam Jones age, Kirkpatrick is essentially the team’s No. 1 corner.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. A.J. Green, WR: $10,176,000
  2. Andy Dalton, QB: $9,600,000
  3. Leon Hall, CB: $9,600,000
  4. Geno Atkins, DT: $9,000,000
  5. Rey Maualuga, LB: $7,137,500
  6. Andre Smith, RT: $6,362,500
  7. Andrew Whitworth, LT: $6,200,000
  8. Vontaze Burfict, LB: $5,175,000
  9. Clint Boling, G: $5,100,000
  10. Carlos Dunlap, DE: $4,900,000

Anyone expecting the Bengals to have an overly active offseason was — predictably — disappointed once again. Cincinnati will never be a club that goes after the Ndamukong Suh‘s of the world, but they will keep their own, as evidenced by their retaining players like Boling and Maualuga, and bringing back familiar faces like Johnson. It’s an approach that works (see: Green Bay Packers), but until the Bengals finally get over the hump and win a playoff game, it won’t mean much to those observing the team.

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

PFR Originals: 7/5/15 – 7/12/15

July 12th, 2015 at 2:45pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past seven days:

  • We continued our 2015 Offseason In Review series, going over each club’s notable signings and losses, trades, draft picks, coaching changes, and more. This week, we touched on NFC East, AFC East, and AFC North clubs: Zach Links looked at the Eagles, Washington, the Cowboys, and the Patriots; Rob DiRe examined the Dolphins; and Rory Parks dove into the Ravens.
  • Luke Adams posted his analysis of the largest 2015 cap hits by division, looking at the AFC South, NFC West, and AFC West this week.
  • I continued to go over potential candidates for release in each division, and this week delved into the AFC North and NFC North.
  • Connor Byrne examined the extension case for Bills offensive tackle Cordy Glenn, positing that Jared Veldheer‘s five-year, $35MM deal with the Cardinals could be used as a comparable.
  • Following Jason Pierre-Paul‘s fireworks accident, Luke listed several contractual scenarios for the Giants and the defensive end, noting that JPP’s injury makes the situation cloudy for the franchise-tagged player.
  • Zach and Luke posted several topics for discussion in this week’s Community Tailgate series, encouraging readers to post their thoughts in the comment section. The subjects covered this week:
    • How the Giants should handle the Pierre-Paul contract situation (link)
    • Who will win the NFC East (link)
    • Who will the AFC North (link)
    • The outcome of Tom Brady‘s suspension appeal (link)
    • Whether the reduction of Greg Hardy‘s suspension to four games is fair (link)

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Ravens

July 12th, 2015 at 12:50pm CST by Rory Parks

Notable signings:

The Ravens’ weakest link last season was, without question, their secondary. Veteran corner Lardarius Webb missed three games early in the 2014 campaign with a lower back injury that clearly plagued him throughout the course of the season, and he would finish the year ranked 78th out of 108 qualified cornerbacks per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required). An even bigger problem was the loss of standout corner Jimmy Smith, whose season was ended by a Week 8 Lisfranc injury. Due to injury and inconsistent performance, Baltimore was forced to deploy Anthony Levine, a natural safety, at cornerback, call on the services of bargain bin veterans such as Dominique Franks and Danny Gorrer, and thrust Rashaan Melvin from the practice squad into a starting role.

Making matters worse was the disappointing play of 2013 first-round pick Matt Elam, who was moved to his natural position of strong safety after spending his rookie campaign at free safety. PFF ranked Elam 78th out of 87 eligible safeties, which included an especially poor -12.7 grade in coverage. As his struggles continued, Elam appeared to lose confidence, and his ignominious season ended with his failing to make several relatively simple tackles in the team’s Divisional Round loss to the Patriots. Indeed, it was that playoff contest, in which the Ravens’ secondary failed to present even a meager challenge to New England’s pass offense, that prompted Baltimore to devote a great deal of attention to the unit this offseason.

The Ravens retained Will Hill on an original-round RFA tender, which was something of a no-brainer. Hill was suspended for the first seven games of the 2014 season, but he played very well when he returned to action, living up to the promise that he showed with the Giants in 2013. Joining him in the defensive backfield will be Kendrick Lewis, who parlayed a strong season as Houston’s free safety into a three-year, $5.4MM deal with Baltimore. Lewis will not make anyone forget about Ed Reed, but he and Hill should bring some much-needed stability to the Ravens’ safety position.

Baltimore also bolstered its cornerback corps by signing Kyle Arrington, who was released by the Patriots in May. Although Arrington has struggled when defending receivers outside the hash marks in his career, he has proven to be a very capable slot corner, which is most likely how the Ravens will use him.

The team’s secondary depth is still suspect; Baltimore did not select a corner in the 2015 draft until using a fourth-round selection on Texas Southern project Tray Walker, and it may still need to rely on the contributions of largely unproven players like Melvin and Asa Jackson and uninspiring veterans like Cassius Vaughn. However, the additions of Lewis and Arrington, the re-signing of Hill, and the anticipated good health of Smith and Webb may help turn a glaring weakness into a relative strength.

Outside of the secondary, Baltimore also addressed its backup quarterback situation by allowing Tyrod Taylor, who had served as Joe Flacco’s backup for four seasons, to leave in free agency. To replace him, the Ravens signed veteran Matt Schaub, whose skill set is more similar to Flacco’s and who brings a great deal of experience to the table. Schaub struggled in the team’s offseason practices, but he should at least be able to steady the ship for a couple of weeks should Flacco suffer an injury that keeps him out of game action for the first time in his career.

The Ravens also retained Justin Forsett on a relatively team-friendly deal after the journeyman back finally got his big break in 2014, gaining 1,266 yards while maintaining an excellent 5.4 yards per carry average and serving as a capable blocker and receiver. He did seem to slow down in the latter stages of the season and will likely be spelled more frequently by second-year back Lorenzo Taliaferro and rookie Buck Allen, but his return assures the Ravens of at least one high-quality player in the backfield.

Notable losses:

Luckily for the Ravens, they did not lose any truly irreplaceable players via release or free agency (the one player who may qualify as irreplaceable was traded, as we will detail below). Owen Daniels filled in nicely as the starting tight end after Dennis Pitta was lost for the season after a Week 3 hip injury, but Daniels, who has struggled with injury himself, is past his prime and was likely overpaid by the Broncos, who gave the Wisconsin product a three-year, $12MM deal this offseason. The Ravens hope that Pitta will be able to fully recover from his second major hip surgery in two years, but even if that seems unlikely at this point, Baltimore has confidence in second-year tight end Crockett Gillmore, who has shown proficiency as a blocker and some talent as a receiver, and highly-touted rookie Maxx Williams.

It was something of a curious decision to release Jacoby Jones, as the move did not save the Ravens a great deal of cap space and will leave the team without one of the more dynamic kick returners in the league. Baltimore has several potential replacements in Jackson, Michael Campanaro, and undrafted free agent DeAndre Carter, but it will be difficult to replace Jones, who is a threat to score whenever he touches the ball.

Torrey Smith, of course, is the biggest name to depart in free agency. However, Smith never developed into the complete receiver that the Ravens had hoped for, and though he played a crucial role in the Ravens’ success during his career in Baltimore, it wouldn’t have made much sense for the team to match the five-year, $40MM pact Smith landed from the 49ers. That is especially true for a receiver who is a good deep threat and who has an underrated knack for drawing pass interference penalties, but who seemed to regress in 2014 and who still struggles with route running and making contested catches. The Ravens are confident in their unheralded collection of receivers behind Steve Smith Sr., a group that includes Kamar Aiken, Marlon Brown, Campanaro, and, most notably, Breshad Perriman, the team’s first-round pick in the 2015 draft who should at least be able to provide the deep threat that the Ravens lost with Torrey Smith’s departure.

On the opposite side of the ball, Pernell McPhee landed a five-year, $40MM contract from the Bears, which seems to be a steep price to pay for a player who has been used primarily as a situational pass rusher in his career. However, the Ravens will certainly miss McPhee’s Swiss Army knife ability to line up virtually anywhere along the front seven and get to the quarterback with such aplomb (despite his limited snap count, PFF graded McPhee as the second-best 3-4 OLB in the league, and his pass rush grade was lower than only two other players: All-Pros Justin Houston and Elvis Dumervil). Although Baltimore’s front seven, anchored by C.J. Mosley, Terrell Suggs, Dumervil, and Brandon Williams, should continue to be a strength, it will certainly need younger talents like Za’Darius Smith, Brent Urban, and Kapron Lewis-Moore to help fill the pass-rushing void.

Extensions and restructures:

As outlined above, Baltimore really had no other choice but to lock up Jimmy Smith with a long-term deal, despite the season-ending injury he suffered in Week 8. And, given the contracts handed out to top-flight corners like Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman, and the lucrative deal that Byron Maxwell was able to pull down from Philadelphia, the extension for Smith looks eminently reasonable. He has demonstrated shutdown ability and is still in the prime of his career, so as long as he stays healthy, the contract may end up looking like a bargain.

Webb, meanwhile, is on the downside of his career, and he knew that if he did not take a pay cut, he would likely be released. He therefore agreed to rework his deal with the Ravens, which still allows him to earn more money than he would have received on the open market, but it also gives Baltimore a little financial flexibility. He and Smith will remain atop the Ravens’ cornerback depth chart this year, and the team did well to retain what should be a pretty strong starting tandem.

The Koch extension keeps one of the league’s more reliable punters under club control through 2020. Koch had been set to become a free agent after the 2015 season.

Trades:

  • Acquired a 2015 fourth-round pick and a 2015 fifth-round pic from the Lions in exchange for DT Haloti Ngata and a 2015 seventh-round pick.
  • Acquired a 2016 fourth-round pick from the Broncos in exchange for C Gino Gradkowski and a 2016 fifth-round pick.
  • Acquired a 2015 second-round pick (No. 55; TE Maxx Williams) from the Cardinals in exchange for a 2015 second-round pick (No. 58; DE/OLB Markus Golden) and a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 158; DE Shaq Riddick).

Losing Ngata is the biggest blow the Ravens were dealt in the offseason. The five-time All-Pro has been a mainstay in the interior of Baltimore’s defensive line since 2006, and he has put together a career that will easily get him entrenched in the Ravens’ Ring of Honor and could arguably earn him a bust in the NFL Hall of Fame. Ngata managed to do the dirty work required of interior linemen—eat up blockers and double-teams to give the linebackers room to run—while also establishing himself as a dominant playmaker in his own right. Excellent against both the run and pass, Ngata’s fearsome presence will missed in Baltimore.

However, he was suspended for the final four games of 2014 for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, and in those four games, the Ravens saw their two young linemen, Brandon Williams and Timmy Jernigan, effectively carry the load. With continued growth from those two players, along with expected contributions from solid if unspectacular mainstays like Chris Canty and DeAngelo Tyson—not to mention high-upside rookie Carl Davis—Baltimore can reasonably hope to minimize the impact of losing Ngata. Furthermore, the team created $8.5MM of cap room by dealing Ngata, and it used one of the draft picks obtained in the trade to land potential McPhee replacement Za’Darius Smith and the other as part of a package to land Williams, the consensus top tight end in the draft.

Draft picks:

  • 1-26: Breshad Perriman, WR (UCF): Signed
  • 2-55: Maxx Williams, TE (Minnesota): Signed
  • 3-90: Carl Davis, DT (Iowa): Signed
  • 4-122: Za’Darius Smith, DE/OLB (Kentucky): Signed
  • 4-125: Buck Allen, RB (USC): Signed
  • 4-136: Tray Walker, CB (Texas Southern): Signed
  • 5-171: Nick Boyle, TE (Delaware): Signed
  • 5-176: Robert Myers, G (Tennessee State): Signed
  • 6-204: Darren Waller, WR (Georgia Tech): Signed

We have already touched on most of these selections. Perriman will be expected to be an immediate contributor, and his speed, athleticism, and playmaking ability give him the potential to be an effective replacement for Torrey Smith. Perriman’s hands and his struggles with drops in his collegiate career have been justifiably criticized, but the Ravens have contended that those drops were due to more of a lack of concentration than a fundamental flaw in his ability. Even if Perriman does not become the top-flight wideout that has always eluded the Ravens, his physical gifts should at least help take the top off of opposing defenses and open underneath routes for Steve Smith Sr. and the team’s stable of tight ends.

Williams, meanwhile, has drawn favorable comparisons to former Raven Todd Heap, and his ability to stretch defenses and make catches up the seams should land him a fair amount of playing time in 2015, particularly if Pitta is unable to recover from his hip injury. Davis appears to be a steal at the No. 90 overall pick and should immediately become an effective part of the team’s defensive line rotation, and Za’Darius Smith—the less-heralded teammate of Pittsburgh first-round selection Bud Dupree—showed terrific edge-setting ability in college and has upside as a pass rusher.

Allen will likely be the team’s No. 3 running back to start the season, but his abilities as both a runner and receiver may allow him to overtake Taliaferro on the Ravens’ depth chart at some point in the 2015 campaign, and he certainly has the upside to be the eventual replacement for Forsett. Walker, as mentioned above, is raw and a developmental project, but Boyle and Waller are intriguing late round prospects who have the size to be effective redzone targets in their rookie seasons. Boyle also brings abilities as an inline blocker and could team with Gillmore and Williams to form a surprisingly effective tight end corps.

Other:

  • Hired Marc Trestman to replace Gary Kubiak as offensive coordinator.
  • Signed nine players to reserve/futures contracts.
  • Signed 15 undrafted rookie free agents following the draft.

Of these players, UDFA Carter probably has the best chance to make the club, thanks to his upside as a return man. Julian Wilson, the former Oklahoma cornerback who became one of the most sought-after UDFAs before agreeing to sign with Baltimore, suffered a broken leg during a spring practice and will miss the 2015 season. The Ravens often strike gold with undrafted free agents, and Wilson, largely because of his prototypical size and Baltimore’s need for secondary depth, was a good bet to make the club if he had stayed healthy. Former Prairie View A&M signal-caller Jerry Lovelocke has some promise, and the Ravens may stash him on the practice squad with the hopes of grooming him to take over the backup quarterback role in the near future. Former East Carolina wide receiver Cam Worthy has some upside but will find it difficult to crack a largely unproven but talented group of receivers.

The Ravens did see one major coaching change, as Gary Kubiak turned his success as Baltimore’s offensive coordinator into his second head coaching gig, taking over the top job with the Broncos. Marc Trestman, who flopped as the Bears’ head coach in the past two seasons, is still a well-respected offensive mind who generally adheres to the same West Coast principles and zone-blocking schemes as Kubiak. Flacco, who enjoyed a career year under Kubiak, should be pleased, and the Ravens offense as a whole should be able to maintain last year’s success.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. Joe Flacco, QB: $14,550,000
  2. Ray Rice, RB: $9,500,000 (dead money)
  3. Lardarius Webb, CB: $9,250,000
  4. Marshal Yanda, G: $8,450,000
  5. Eugene Monroe, LT: $7,700,000
  6. Haloti Ngata, DT: $7,500,000 (dead money)
  7. Elvis Dumervil, OLB: $7,375,000
  8. Dennis Pitta, TE: $6,200,000
  9. Steve Smith Sr., WR: $4,166,666
  10. Terrell Suggs, OLB: $3,950,000

As this list indicates, the Ravens are absorbing a combined cap hit of $23.2MM for players who either will not suit up for them in 2015 (Rice, Ngata) or who may not suit up (Pitta). Considering those limitations, GM Ozzie Newsome has done a nice job of addressing the team’s biggest needs and putting together what looks to be a playoff roster. The AFC North, which sent three teams to the playoffs in 2014, will once again be a tightly-contested division, but Baltimore, which advanced further in the playoffs than rivals Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, looks like a better team on paper than it did when its season ended in Foxboro in January. As such, look for the Ravens to make some noise as they attempt to qualify for postseason play for the seventh time in eight years of the John Harbaugh/Flacco era.

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

Extension Candidate: Cordy Glenn

July 11th, 2015 at 8:33pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Defensive tackle Marcell Dareus is rightly atop the Bills’ priority list when it comes to extension candidates, but he isn’t the team’s only key lineman entering a contract year. Offensive tackle Cordy Glenn is also set to play out his final season under Buffalo’s control. While the team would be wise to make an effort to lock Glenn up for the foreseeable future, there hasn’t been much talk of a long-term deal for the 25-year-old. Unless something changes, he could cash in elsewhere in 2016.

Since the Bills used a second-round pick in 2012 on Glenn, the former Georgia standout has been a durable stalwart, appearing NFL: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Billsin 45 of a possible 48 regular-season games with the team. Every one of Glenn’s 45 appearances have been starts, and he has earned positive grades from Pro Football Focus in all three seasons of his career. Glenn was the only Bills O-lineman last year who received plus marks from PFF, which ranked the unit an abysmal 30th out of 32 teams.

Glenn’s ability to both stay on the field and play well despite being surrounded by subpar line mates are reasons to keep him in the fold going forward, but the Bills may not view the 25-year-old as positively as PFF does. In fact, he and second-year man Seantrel Henderson – whom PFF (subscription required) ranked as the worst right tackle in the league in 2014 – spent offseason practices alternating between the left and right sides.

Glenn took the transition in stride, saying, “The way I look at it, when you’re here, you’re trying to help out your team … Anything you’ve got to do to win, you’ve got to do it.”

Glenn’s positive approach could change if he ends up in a backup role, which Buffalo News scribe Vic Carucci introduced as a possibility last month. If the Bills’ coaches (namely head man Rex Ryan, offensive coordinator Greg Roman and line coach Aaron Kromer) like the athletic Henderson enough to be their left tackle and fellow second-year pro Cyrus Kouandjio on the right side, that could relegate Glenn to the bench – a place for which he’s clearly far too qualified. That seems unlikely when one considers Glenn’s track record, Henderson’s horrid 2014 and Kouandjio’s inability to get on the field as a rookie after the team used a second-round pick on him, but the fact that Carucci mentioned the idea means it isn’t totally far-fetched.

Even if Glenn does ultimately start and impress for a fourth straight season, it may not be enough to sway Bills brass, led by general manager Doug Whaley, in his favor. Carucci noted late last month that, given the Bills’ desire to keep a dominant defense together, Glenn was at the bottom of an extension pecking order that includes Dareus and linebacker Nigel Bradham, whose deal also expires at year’s end.

In the event the Bills do find a way to keep Glenn as part of their long-term core, a deal in the range of $30MM to $40MM overall may be in the offing. That’s roughly the going rate nowadays among good, in-their-prime tackles – evidenced by the recent contracts given to Rodger Saffold ($31.7MM), Jared Veldheer ($35MM) and Eugene Monroe ($37.5MM) – not to mention a significant step up from the rookie deal under which Glenn is currently playing.

One comparable Glenn and his agent could use is Veldheer, whose resume was similar to Glenn’s in places when he signed his deal as a free agent in 2014. At the time, Veldheer was 26, a four-year veteran, with 48 starts under his belt. On the other hand, two of Veldheer’s seasonal performances drew negative grades from PFF and he missed 11 games because of a triceps tear the year before signing with the Cardinals. However, PFF did rank him as one of the league’s 16 best tackles in 2011 and ’12. Those efforts helped the ex-Raider land a five-year, $35MM payday. The total value of Veldheer’s contract currently ranks a modest 14th among left tackles, as does the the $17MM in guarantees (including a $6.25MM signing bonus) he received, per Over The Cap. If Glenn’s next contract exceeds those totals, odds are it won’t be by much.

The Bills seem to be taking a wait-and-see approach with respect to Glenn’s long-term status. But if Henderson and Kouandjio don’t take sizable steps in 2015, it’s hard to imagine Buffalo letting Glenn go without a fight. Quality left tackles who are young and durable aren’t exactly easy to come by, and a team whose O-line was a major weakness last season (and could be again this year) isn’t in position to allow one of its few capable blockers to head elsewhere.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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