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Extension Candidate: Muhammad Wilkerson

July 12th, 2015 at 7:42pm CST by Rob DiRe

The Jets haven’t had a lot to root for on the field during the last couple of years of Rex Ryan’s reign in New York, especially as the short-lived era of John Idzik came to an end. However, as the team is looking forward under the new leadership of Todd Bowles and Mike Maccagnan, they do so with a roster rebuild that was started under the previous regime.

Nov 24, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; New York Jets defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson (96) against the Buffalo Bills at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

One of the crown jewels of the team is coming into the option year of his rookie-contract, which the Jets exercised and will pay him $6.969MM in 2015. As Bowles looks to build a defense that can be one of the best in the AFC for years to come, signing Wilkerson to a long-term extension could give him a cornerstone player to build around.

Wilkerson’s talent has been on the line between underrated and acknowledged for most of his career. As a 3-4 defensive end in a blitz-heavy scheme, he isn’t in a position to put up large numbers in the traditional statistical categories, only notching 24 sacks in his four seasons, including a robust 10.5 in 2013. When some analysts refer to him as the second-best player at his position in the NFL, the player he is being compared to is J.J. Watt, who has two Defensive Player of the Year trophies and 57 sacks over the same time frame.

While it may be flattering for Wilkerson to be in that company, Watt’s status as the NFL’s undisputed top defender makes his sidekick seem quite small, especially playing the same position as him. Even the other notable defensive linemen in the league often come from the 4-3 mold, with only Calais Campbell of the Cardinals joining Watt as a 3-4 defensive end in the Pro Bowl in 2015. Traditional 4-3 pass rushers from defensive end also accompanied Watt on the 2014 Pro Bowl roster, and only Haloti Ngata represented the position aside from Watt in 2013.

Therefore, despite being regarded as one of the top players at his position, Wilkerson has never made the Pro Bowl in his career, even though he was second-team All-Pro in 2013, and ranked as the 74th best player and 42nd best player in the NFL according to the NFL Newtwork’s list.

Still, advanced metric sites like Pro Football Focus (subscription required) have rated Wilkerson extremely highly, listing him as the second-best 3-4 defensive end in 2012 and third best in 2014. Watt was first both of those years, and Wilkerson’s teammate Sheldon Richardson ranked second this past season. Accordingly, he was named a Pro Football Focus All-Pro in both of those seasons.

The complications of Wilkerson’s case for an extension come from the presence of Richardson, and are only additionally muddled by the drafting of Leonard Williams with the fifth-overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. The Jets may make a case for having the best defensive line in football this coming season, which is notable for a fan base that saw its elder brother Giants win two Super Bowls on the strength of its defensive line in spite of mediocre quarterback play.

On the other hand, the strength along the defensive line also provides the Jets a certain amount of leverage in these talks, with adequate replacements for Wilkerson already on the roster and under team control on rookie contracts going forward. They can afford to play hardball with Wilkerson, knowing they will have two more years plus a fifth-year option with Richardson and the full length of Williams contract as well. That doesn’t include the potential to use the franchise tag on these players to add a year of team control to their contracts, an option that extends to Wilkerson as well.

All that team control, as well as the in-house options, decidedly suppresses Wilkerson’s market with the Jets. Richardson commented earlier this offseason that both he and his teammate were worth those big $100MM contracts, and even more. “We don’t just want J.J. Watt money. We want it all,” said Richardson. “We want Suh money. Hopefully everybody wants that type of bread in this league.”

Watt signed a six-year contract worth $100MM last offseason, and Suh signed a six-year contract worth more than $114MM earlier this year. Wilkerson’s situation more closely resembles Watt’s as a 2011 draft pick. In both cases, the team had the fifth-year option and franchise tag at their disposal.

Suh, drafted a year earlier, was not subject to the newer rookie-wage scale and therefore had a bloated salary with no team options to fall back on. His contract was renegotiated for short-term cap room, but the Lions could not afford to use the franchise tag or re-sign him, and he hit unrestricted free agency.

If Wilkerson keeps his performance up and waits out his time with the Jets, free agency would be the best place for him to secure a $100MM contract. Manish Mehta doesn’t believe the team would consider that sized contract in an extension, at least not this year.

Letting Wilkerson walk and waiting for Richardson to come up for an extension seemed like a good idea, especially if the Jets thought Richardson is the better player. Unfortunately for Richardson, his recent suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy weakens his case as well, therefore tipping the scale back in Wilkerson’s favor.

Richardson’s suspension was for marijuana use, and the policy for that offense includes a number of steps before suspension. That knowledge suggests that this isn’t his first positive test, and that this is an ongoing problem for Richardson as long as marijuana is included in the substance abuse policy. Add to that how outspoken Richardson has been about the type of money he eventually wants to command, and the team might see a safer option in Wilkerson.

As he is overshadowed by Watt on the field, if Wilkerson and the Jets are able to come to an agreement on an extension, he will also be overshadowed by Watt’s bank account. Based on production, given similar leverage, it is unfair to expect Wilkerson to match those numbers, even if waiting until closer to the end of the team’s control usually shifts leverage to the player.

In the scenario where the two sides are able to come together on a number, I think throwing Watt’s contract out would be a given, but given that after Watt’s $100MM the next highest total value for a contract is Calais Campbell and Cameron Jordan‘s similar five-year, $55MM deals, there is a lot of breathing room in between to work out, according to OverTheCap.com.

Even going to high profile 4-3 defensive ends like Robert Quinn‘s four-year deal worth $57MM and Charles Johnson‘s six-year, $76MM contract could be the high marks for Wilkerson. Johnson’s deal is an outlier in terms of production when accounting for the position he plays, but his position is also more valuable. Quinn has more star power, and his $14MM+ yearly salary is a big number to approach. If Wilkerson could get a six-year deal worth $70MM, that would put him in an elite tax bracket, well above all his contemporaries save for Watt.

However, it seems like both sides would have to make serious concessions to make that happen. The vibe coming from the Jets organization as well as Wilkerson’s camp is that they are comfortable playing out the string. I would still expect Wilkerson to be franchised after this season, but if he does reach free agency, I’d guess he gets a lot closer to the number he wants than he will with the Jets.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Bengals

July 12th, 2015 at 3:41pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The early-2000’s “Cincinnati Bungles” moniker is no longer appropriate for the club that resides in the Queen City. Yes, the team has gone one-and-out in the playoffs in each of the last four seasons, and yes, head coach Marvin Lewis is still 0-6 overall in the postseason. But the mere fact that that Bengals have earned a playoff berth for four consecutive years is impressive in and of itself, and the organization — through its approach to the draft, free agency, and the salary cap — is on its way to becoming one of the more respected franchises in the NFL. How did the offseason’s happenings affect their fortunes?

Notable signings:

Armed with nearly $35MM of cap space when the offseason began, the Bengals — as is their wont — didn’t do all that much during free agency, handing out just $15.655MM in total guarantees. Sticking to their strategy of signing and retaining familiar players, Cincinnati gave money to just three players — linebacker A.J. Hawk, receiver Denarius Moore, and safety Shiloh Keo — who hadn’t played for the club at some point during their career.

Defensive end Michael Johnson was one of four signees who had previously spent time in the Queen City; the 28-year-old had spent the first five seasons of his career with the Bengals before defecting to Tampa Bay prior to the 2014 season. The Buccaneers released Johnson just one season into a five-year deal, incurring $7MM in dead money in the process, and the Bengals quickly swooped in (warding off former defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer and the Vikings) to reunite with the veteran end, agreeing to a four-year pact that, while worth $26MM in total, contains just $4.5MM in guaranteed money. Johnson isn’t the sort of elite pass rusher than many thought Cincinnati — which finished with an NFL-low 20 sacks — might go after in free agency, but he did post two top 10 finishes among 4-3 defensive ends during his last two seasons with the Bengals, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), thanks in large part to his acumen against the run.

Unlike Johnson, guard Clint Boling never left Cincinnati, re-signing on a four-year, $26MM deal on the second day of free agency after the Jets, Falcons, and Vikings all expressed interest. Boling, 26, has been a full-time starter along the Bengals’ front five for three seasons, starting 44 games during that span. After grading as PFF’s 20th-best guard in 2014, he’ll continue to add stability to an offensive line that, for 2015 at least, should remain intact, before serving as a veteran presence in the years to come, when said line could see some upheaval — more on that later.

At linebacker, Cincinnati re-signed Rey Maualuga, who will man the middle of the defense for the seventh straight season. In our Bengals Offseason Outlook post earlier this year, I wrote that Maualuga should probably expect to be retained via a modest, one-year deal, similar to the contracts he’d signed with the club in the past. So it was a bit surprising to see the Bengals not only commit to three years with the former second-round pick, but hand him the same amount of guaranteed cash that Johnson received. Maualuga has never been an above-average player, but he’s reliable and well-versed in the team’s defensive scheme, qualities Cincinnati obviously values. The club also brought in former Packer A. J. Hawk on a short-term agreement, and while the veteran has certainly lost a step, he’s capable of acting in a reserve role, and could be valuable insurance in the event that Vontaze Burfict continues to deal with injuries.

The rest of Cincinnati’s additions are a mix of backup/special team-type players (Eric Winston, Cedric Peerman), veterans unlikely to make the final 53-man roster (Brandon Tate, Devon Still) and interesting dart throws, one of which is receiver Denarius Moore. Though it seems as though he’s been in the league for quite a long time, Moore is still only 26 years old, and though his 2015 was a far cry from his 2012-13 numbers — when he averaged a 48/618/6 line — he’s proficient enough to serve as the Bengals’ fourth receiver.

Notable losses:

The Bengals didn’t add much in free agency, but they also didn’t lose a ton, either, as their biggest loss is tight end Jermaine Gresham, who as of this writing still hasn’t found a new team (largely due to his undergoing back surgery earlier this year). Gresham played the most 2014 snaps of any departing free agent (900 on the dot), but he wasn’t overly effective outside of pass blocking situations. A return to Cincinnati can all but be ruled out — Gresham reportedly angered some in the locker room by failing to play through injuries near the end of the season (though the fact that he had surgery might prove that said injuries were more serious than originally thought) — as the club will turn to Tyler Eifert and two draft picks to fortify the tight end position.

At age 36, Terence Newman actually played the second-most snaps of any Bengals cornerback, as the club continued to take the slow route in terms of Dre Kirkpatrick and Darqueze Dennard‘s development. But with those two primed to take on a larger role in 2015, Leon Hall assigned to slot duties, and fellow veteran Adam Jones still hanging around, it didn’t make sense for Cincinnati to retain Newman, who’d been with with the club for three years. Newman, a first-round pick way back in 2003, followed Zimmer to Minnesota, inking a one-year, $2.5MM deal. Taylor Mays — a defensive back who had primarily become a dime linebacker — also won’t be back, having already joined two NFC North clubs (Vikings, then Lions) this offseason.

Quarterback Jason Campbell is three years younger than Newman, but it sounds as if he’s already set to call it a career, as reports last month indicated that although nothing is official, Campbell is planning to retire in the near future. The news isn’t that important in and of itself (Campbell only attempted 19 passes last year), but it does mean that second-year pro A.J. McCarron is poised to take over the No. 2 quarterback job. The Bengals have already signed and released Terrelle Pryor, and while veteran Josh Johnson is back in town after a one-year hiatus, most expect McCarron to run with the backup job in 2015.

Along the offensive line, Cincinnati saw the loss of both Marshall Newhouse and Mike Pollak — both played around 400-450 snaps last season, but Pollak was the more effective player according to PFF, garnering a +5.0 grade compared to Newhouse’s -11.6. The Bengals didn’t attempt to re-sign Newhouse, as he he wouldn’t have had a role given that the club spent two high draft picks on offensive tackles. Pollak, meanwhile, was released, and subsequently retired a few months later.

Finally, defensive end Robert Geathers may have had the quietest exit of any player who had spent more than a decade with a club. The 31-year-old once posted 10.5 sacks (back in 2006) and had started 104 games during his tenure in Cincinnati, but he hadn’t registered a start in more than two years. Given that he ranked dead last in PFF’s 4-3 defensive end rankings, it’s conceivable that Geathers’ career is over.

 Draft picks:

  • 1-21: Cedric Ogbuehi, OL (Texas A&M): Signed
  • 2-53: Jake Fisher, T (Oregon): Signed
  • 3-85: Tyler Kroft, TE (Rutgers): Signed
  • 3-99: Paul Dawson, LB (TCU): Signed
  • 4-120: Josh Shaw, DB (USC): Signed
  • 4-135: Marcus Hardison, DT (Arizona State): Signed
  • 5-157: C.J. Uzomah, TE (Auburn): Signed
  • 6-197: Derron Smith, S (Fresno State): Signed
  • 7-238: Mario Alford, WR/KR (West Virginia): Signed

Both Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher were popular Bengals targets in mock drafts leading up to the actual event, but almost everyone was surprised that the club snagged both of them. Not only did most people think Fisher would be gone by pick No. 53, but no one surmised that Cincinnati would use its first two picks on offensive lineman, especially given that the team’s front five is mostly set. But with Andrew Whitworth and Andre Smith both heading for free agency at year’s end, the picks could prove astute.

Ogbuehi, recovering from a ACL tear, is a candidate to begin the season on the physically unable to perform list. Even if he is healthy enough to play at some point this season, his snaps figure to be limited by the presence of Whitworth. While his ascendance to playing time might wait until 2016, Fisher could see a fair amount of snaps this year. Cincinnati coaches worked Fisher at nearly every spot along the line during rookie minicamp and OTAs, so he could fill in either at tackle or guard in the event of an injury (or even supplant Smith at right tackle if the veteran struggles again in 2015).

Elsewhere, Tyler Kroft and C.J. Uzomah will be pressed into duty almost immediately, as they’re expected to act as starter Tyler Eifert‘s backups at tight end. Paul Dawson, who fell in the draft due to character concerns, has been lauded as a steal by those in the know, with some painting him as a poor man’s Vontaze Burfict. Josh Shaw and Derron Smith will compete for backup spots in the secondary, while Mario Alford is likely to push Brandon Tate off the roster.

It’s odd, but the Bengals rookie that figures to see the most snaps in 2015 (barring injuries) is Kroft, the team’s third-round pick. Given the state of the club’s offensive line, Ogbuehi’s recovery from injury, and the lack of depth at tight end, Kroft will be thrown into the fire immediately.

Other:

Marvin Lewis inked his 8th new contract/extension with the Bengals, and for the second consecutive year, he signed a deal that will extend his contract by one season. Thanks to the fresh contract, he won’t be a lame duck coach, but if the Bengals once again fail to win a playoff game, it’s fair to wonder if Lewis will be around much longer. Lewis, the second-longest tenured head coach in the NFL, owns the record for most career victories by a Bengals head coach.

Cincinnati picked up the fifth-year options on both Dre Kirkpatrick and Kevin Zeitler, and an April report indicated that the club is anxious to sign both to long-term extensions. The Bengals just invested a hefty sum in fellow guard Clint Boling, and drafted offensive lineman with their first two picks, so they might have some leverage over Zeitler as talks progress. Kirkpatrick is probably more important to lock up — as Leon Hall and Adam Jones age, Kirkpatrick is essentially the team’s No. 1 corner.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. A.J. Green, WR: $10,176,000
  2. Andy Dalton, QB: $9,600,000
  3. Leon Hall, CB: $9,600,000
  4. Geno Atkins, DT: $9,000,000
  5. Rey Maualuga, LB: $7,137,500
  6. Andre Smith, RT: $6,362,500
  7. Andrew Whitworth, LT: $6,200,000
  8. Vontaze Burfict, LB: $5,175,000
  9. Clint Boling, G: $5,100,000
  10. Carlos Dunlap, DE: $4,900,000

Anyone expecting the Bengals to have an overly active offseason was — predictably — disappointed once again. Cincinnati will never be a club that goes after the Ndamukong Suh‘s of the world, but they will keep their own, as evidenced by their retaining players like Boling and Maualuga, and bringing back familiar faces like Johnson. It’s an approach that works (see: Green Bay Packers), but until the Bengals finally get over the hump and win a playoff game, it won’t mean much to those observing the team.

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

PFR Originals: 7/5/15 – 7/12/15

July 12th, 2015 at 2:45pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past seven days:

  • We continued our 2015 Offseason In Review series, going over each club’s notable signings and losses, trades, draft picks, coaching changes, and more. This week, we touched on NFC East, AFC East, and AFC North clubs: Zach Links looked at the Eagles, Washington, the Cowboys, and the Patriots; Rob DiRe examined the Dolphins; and Rory Parks dove into the Ravens.
  • Luke Adams posted his analysis of the largest 2015 cap hits by division, looking at the AFC South, NFC West, and AFC West this week.
  • I continued to go over potential candidates for release in each division, and this week delved into the AFC North and NFC North.
  • Connor Byrne examined the extension case for Bills offensive tackle Cordy Glenn, positing that Jared Veldheer‘s five-year, $35MM deal with the Cardinals could be used as a comparable.
  • Following Jason Pierre-Paul‘s fireworks accident, Luke listed several contractual scenarios for the Giants and the defensive end, noting that JPP’s injury makes the situation cloudy for the franchise-tagged player.
  • Zach and Luke posted several topics for discussion in this week’s Community Tailgate series, encouraging readers to post their thoughts in the comment section. The subjects covered this week:
    • How the Giants should handle the Pierre-Paul contract situation (link)
    • Who will win the NFC East (link)
    • Who will the AFC North (link)
    • The outcome of Tom Brady‘s suspension appeal (link)
    • Whether the reduction of Greg Hardy‘s suspension to four games is fair (link)

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Ravens

July 12th, 2015 at 12:50pm CST by Rory Parks

Notable signings:

The Ravens’ weakest link last season was, without question, their secondary. Veteran corner Lardarius Webb missed three games early in the 2014 campaign with a lower back injury that clearly plagued him throughout the course of the season, and he would finish the year ranked 78th out of 108 qualified cornerbacks per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required). An even bigger problem was the loss of standout corner Jimmy Smith, whose season was ended by a Week 8 Lisfranc injury. Due to injury and inconsistent performance, Baltimore was forced to deploy Anthony Levine, a natural safety, at cornerback, call on the services of bargain bin veterans such as Dominique Franks and Danny Gorrer, and thrust Rashaan Melvin from the practice squad into a starting role.

Making matters worse was the disappointing play of 2013 first-round pick Matt Elam, who was moved to his natural position of strong safety after spending his rookie campaign at free safety. PFF ranked Elam 78th out of 87 eligible safeties, which included an especially poor -12.7 grade in coverage. As his struggles continued, Elam appeared to lose confidence, and his ignominious season ended with his failing to make several relatively simple tackles in the team’s Divisional Round loss to the Patriots. Indeed, it was that playoff contest, in which the Ravens’ secondary failed to present even a meager challenge to New England’s pass offense, that prompted Baltimore to devote a great deal of attention to the unit this offseason.

The Ravens retained Will Hill on an original-round RFA tender, which was something of a no-brainer. Hill was suspended for the first seven games of the 2014 season, but he played very well when he returned to action, living up to the promise that he showed with the Giants in 2013. Joining him in the defensive backfield will be Kendrick Lewis, who parlayed a strong season as Houston’s free safety into a three-year, $5.4MM deal with Baltimore. Lewis will not make anyone forget about Ed Reed, but he and Hill should bring some much-needed stability to the Ravens’ safety position.

Baltimore also bolstered its cornerback corps by signing Kyle Arrington, who was released by the Patriots in May. Although Arrington has struggled when defending receivers outside the hash marks in his career, he has proven to be a very capable slot corner, which is most likely how the Ravens will use him.

The team’s secondary depth is still suspect; Baltimore did not select a corner in the 2015 draft until using a fourth-round selection on Texas Southern project Tray Walker, and it may still need to rely on the contributions of largely unproven players like Melvin and Asa Jackson and uninspiring veterans like Cassius Vaughn. However, the additions of Lewis and Arrington, the re-signing of Hill, and the anticipated good health of Smith and Webb may help turn a glaring weakness into a relative strength.

Outside of the secondary, Baltimore also addressed its backup quarterback situation by allowing Tyrod Taylor, who had served as Joe Flacco’s backup for four seasons, to leave in free agency. To replace him, the Ravens signed veteran Matt Schaub, whose skill set is more similar to Flacco’s and who brings a great deal of experience to the table. Schaub struggled in the team’s offseason practices, but he should at least be able to steady the ship for a couple of weeks should Flacco suffer an injury that keeps him out of game action for the first time in his career.

The Ravens also retained Justin Forsett on a relatively team-friendly deal after the journeyman back finally got his big break in 2014, gaining 1,266 yards while maintaining an excellent 5.4 yards per carry average and serving as a capable blocker and receiver. He did seem to slow down in the latter stages of the season and will likely be spelled more frequently by second-year back Lorenzo Taliaferro and rookie Buck Allen, but his return assures the Ravens of at least one high-quality player in the backfield.

Notable losses:

Luckily for the Ravens, they did not lose any truly irreplaceable players via release or free agency (the one player who may qualify as irreplaceable was traded, as we will detail below). Owen Daniels filled in nicely as the starting tight end after Dennis Pitta was lost for the season after a Week 3 hip injury, but Daniels, who has struggled with injury himself, is past his prime and was likely overpaid by the Broncos, who gave the Wisconsin product a three-year, $12MM deal this offseason. The Ravens hope that Pitta will be able to fully recover from his second major hip surgery in two years, but even if that seems unlikely at this point, Baltimore has confidence in second-year tight end Crockett Gillmore, who has shown proficiency as a blocker and some talent as a receiver, and highly-touted rookie Maxx Williams.

It was something of a curious decision to release Jacoby Jones, as the move did not save the Ravens a great deal of cap space and will leave the team without one of the more dynamic kick returners in the league. Baltimore has several potential replacements in Jackson, Michael Campanaro, and undrafted free agent DeAndre Carter, but it will be difficult to replace Jones, who is a threat to score whenever he touches the ball.

Torrey Smith, of course, is the biggest name to depart in free agency. However, Smith never developed into the complete receiver that the Ravens had hoped for, and though he played a crucial role in the Ravens’ success during his career in Baltimore, it wouldn’t have made much sense for the team to match the five-year, $40MM pact Smith landed from the 49ers. That is especially true for a receiver who is a good deep threat and who has an underrated knack for drawing pass interference penalties, but who seemed to regress in 2014 and who still struggles with route running and making contested catches. The Ravens are confident in their unheralded collection of receivers behind Steve Smith Sr., a group that includes Kamar Aiken, Marlon Brown, Campanaro, and, most notably, Breshad Perriman, the team’s first-round pick in the 2015 draft who should at least be able to provide the deep threat that the Ravens lost with Torrey Smith’s departure.

On the opposite side of the ball, Pernell McPhee landed a five-year, $40MM contract from the Bears, which seems to be a steep price to pay for a player who has been used primarily as a situational pass rusher in his career. However, the Ravens will certainly miss McPhee’s Swiss Army knife ability to line up virtually anywhere along the front seven and get to the quarterback with such aplomb (despite his limited snap count, PFF graded McPhee as the second-best 3-4 OLB in the league, and his pass rush grade was lower than only two other players: All-Pros Justin Houston and Elvis Dumervil). Although Baltimore’s front seven, anchored by C.J. Mosley, Terrell Suggs, Dumervil, and Brandon Williams, should continue to be a strength, it will certainly need younger talents like Za’Darius Smith, Brent Urban, and Kapron Lewis-Moore to help fill the pass-rushing void.

Extensions and restructures:

As outlined above, Baltimore really had no other choice but to lock up Jimmy Smith with a long-term deal, despite the season-ending injury he suffered in Week 8. And, given the contracts handed out to top-flight corners like Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman, and the lucrative deal that Byron Maxwell was able to pull down from Philadelphia, the extension for Smith looks eminently reasonable. He has demonstrated shutdown ability and is still in the prime of his career, so as long as he stays healthy, the contract may end up looking like a bargain.

Webb, meanwhile, is on the downside of his career, and he knew that if he did not take a pay cut, he would likely be released. He therefore agreed to rework his deal with the Ravens, which still allows him to earn more money than he would have received on the open market, but it also gives Baltimore a little financial flexibility. He and Smith will remain atop the Ravens’ cornerback depth chart this year, and the team did well to retain what should be a pretty strong starting tandem.

The Koch extension keeps one of the league’s more reliable punters under club control through 2020. Koch had been set to become a free agent after the 2015 season.

Trades:

  • Acquired a 2015 fourth-round pick and a 2015 fifth-round pic from the Lions in exchange for DT Haloti Ngata and a 2015 seventh-round pick.
  • Acquired a 2016 fourth-round pick from the Broncos in exchange for C Gino Gradkowski and a 2016 fifth-round pick.
  • Acquired a 2015 second-round pick (No. 55; TE Maxx Williams) from the Cardinals in exchange for a 2015 second-round pick (No. 58; DE/OLB Markus Golden) and a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 158; DE Shaq Riddick).

Losing Ngata is the biggest blow the Ravens were dealt in the offseason. The five-time All-Pro has been a mainstay in the interior of Baltimore’s defensive line since 2006, and he has put together a career that will easily get him entrenched in the Ravens’ Ring of Honor and could arguably earn him a bust in the NFL Hall of Fame. Ngata managed to do the dirty work required of interior linemen—eat up blockers and double-teams to give the linebackers room to run—while also establishing himself as a dominant playmaker in his own right. Excellent against both the run and pass, Ngata’s fearsome presence will missed in Baltimore.

However, he was suspended for the final four games of 2014 for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, and in those four games, the Ravens saw their two young linemen, Brandon Williams and Timmy Jernigan, effectively carry the load. With continued growth from those two players, along with expected contributions from solid if unspectacular mainstays like Chris Canty and DeAngelo Tyson—not to mention high-upside rookie Carl Davis—Baltimore can reasonably hope to minimize the impact of losing Ngata. Furthermore, the team created $8.5MM of cap room by dealing Ngata, and it used one of the draft picks obtained in the trade to land potential McPhee replacement Za’Darius Smith and the other as part of a package to land Williams, the consensus top tight end in the draft.

Draft picks:

  • 1-26: Breshad Perriman, WR (UCF): Signed
  • 2-55: Maxx Williams, TE (Minnesota): Signed
  • 3-90: Carl Davis, DT (Iowa): Signed
  • 4-122: Za’Darius Smith, DE/OLB (Kentucky): Signed
  • 4-125: Buck Allen, RB (USC): Signed
  • 4-136: Tray Walker, CB (Texas Southern): Signed
  • 5-171: Nick Boyle, TE (Delaware): Signed
  • 5-176: Robert Myers, G (Tennessee State): Signed
  • 6-204: Darren Waller, WR (Georgia Tech): Signed

We have already touched on most of these selections. Perriman will be expected to be an immediate contributor, and his speed, athleticism, and playmaking ability give him the potential to be an effective replacement for Torrey Smith. Perriman’s hands and his struggles with drops in his collegiate career have been justifiably criticized, but the Ravens have contended that those drops were due to more of a lack of concentration than a fundamental flaw in his ability. Even if Perriman does not become the top-flight wideout that has always eluded the Ravens, his physical gifts should at least help take the top off of opposing defenses and open underneath routes for Steve Smith Sr. and the team’s stable of tight ends.

Williams, meanwhile, has drawn favorable comparisons to former Raven Todd Heap, and his ability to stretch defenses and make catches up the seams should land him a fair amount of playing time in 2015, particularly if Pitta is unable to recover from his hip injury. Davis appears to be a steal at the No. 90 overall pick and should immediately become an effective part of the team’s defensive line rotation, and Za’Darius Smith—the less-heralded teammate of Pittsburgh first-round selection Bud Dupree—showed terrific edge-setting ability in college and has upside as a pass rusher.

Allen will likely be the team’s No. 3 running back to start the season, but his abilities as both a runner and receiver may allow him to overtake Taliaferro on the Ravens’ depth chart at some point in the 2015 campaign, and he certainly has the upside to be the eventual replacement for Forsett. Walker, as mentioned above, is raw and a developmental project, but Boyle and Waller are intriguing late round prospects who have the size to be effective redzone targets in their rookie seasons. Boyle also brings abilities as an inline blocker and could team with Gillmore and Williams to form a surprisingly effective tight end corps.

Other:

  • Hired Marc Trestman to replace Gary Kubiak as offensive coordinator.
  • Signed nine players to reserve/futures contracts.
  • Signed 15 undrafted rookie free agents following the draft.

Of these players, UDFA Carter probably has the best chance to make the club, thanks to his upside as a return man. Julian Wilson, the former Oklahoma cornerback who became one of the most sought-after UDFAs before agreeing to sign with Baltimore, suffered a broken leg during a spring practice and will miss the 2015 season. The Ravens often strike gold with undrafted free agents, and Wilson, largely because of his prototypical size and Baltimore’s need for secondary depth, was a good bet to make the club if he had stayed healthy. Former Prairie View A&M signal-caller Jerry Lovelocke has some promise, and the Ravens may stash him on the practice squad with the hopes of grooming him to take over the backup quarterback role in the near future. Former East Carolina wide receiver Cam Worthy has some upside but will find it difficult to crack a largely unproven but talented group of receivers.

The Ravens did see one major coaching change, as Gary Kubiak turned his success as Baltimore’s offensive coordinator into his second head coaching gig, taking over the top job with the Broncos. Marc Trestman, who flopped as the Bears’ head coach in the past two seasons, is still a well-respected offensive mind who generally adheres to the same West Coast principles and zone-blocking schemes as Kubiak. Flacco, who enjoyed a career year under Kubiak, should be pleased, and the Ravens offense as a whole should be able to maintain last year’s success.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. Joe Flacco, QB: $14,550,000
  2. Ray Rice, RB: $9,500,000 (dead money)
  3. Lardarius Webb, CB: $9,250,000
  4. Marshal Yanda, G: $8,450,000
  5. Eugene Monroe, LT: $7,700,000
  6. Haloti Ngata, DT: $7,500,000 (dead money)
  7. Elvis Dumervil, OLB: $7,375,000
  8. Dennis Pitta, TE: $6,200,000
  9. Steve Smith Sr., WR: $4,166,666
  10. Terrell Suggs, OLB: $3,950,000

As this list indicates, the Ravens are absorbing a combined cap hit of $23.2MM for players who either will not suit up for them in 2015 (Rice, Ngata) or who may not suit up (Pitta). Considering those limitations, GM Ozzie Newsome has done a nice job of addressing the team’s biggest needs and putting together what looks to be a playoff roster. The AFC North, which sent three teams to the playoffs in 2014, will once again be a tightly-contested division, but Baltimore, which advanced further in the playoffs than rivals Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, looks like a better team on paper than it did when its season ended in Foxboro in January. As such, look for the Ravens to make some noise as they attempt to qualify for postseason play for the seventh time in eight years of the John Harbaugh/Flacco era.

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

Extension Candidate: Cordy Glenn

July 11th, 2015 at 8:33pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Defensive tackle Marcell Dareus is rightly atop the Bills’ priority list when it comes to extension candidates, but he isn’t the team’s only key lineman entering a contract year. Offensive tackle Cordy Glenn is also set to play out his final season under Buffalo’s control. While the team would be wise to make an effort to lock Glenn up for the foreseeable future, there hasn’t been much talk of a long-term deal for the 25-year-old. Unless something changes, he could cash in elsewhere in 2016.

Since the Bills used a second-round pick in 2012 on Glenn, the former Georgia standout has been a durable stalwart, appearing NFL: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Billsin 45 of a possible 48 regular-season games with the team. Every one of Glenn’s 45 appearances have been starts, and he has earned positive grades from Pro Football Focus in all three seasons of his career. Glenn was the only Bills O-lineman last year who received plus marks from PFF, which ranked the unit an abysmal 30th out of 32 teams.

Glenn’s ability to both stay on the field and play well despite being surrounded by subpar line mates are reasons to keep him in the fold going forward, but the Bills may not view the 25-year-old as positively as PFF does. In fact, he and second-year man Seantrel Henderson – whom PFF (subscription required) ranked as the worst right tackle in the league in 2014 – spent offseason practices alternating between the left and right sides.

Glenn took the transition in stride, saying, “The way I look at it, when you’re here, you’re trying to help out your team … Anything you’ve got to do to win, you’ve got to do it.”

Glenn’s positive approach could change if he ends up in a backup role, which Buffalo News scribe Vic Carucci introduced as a possibility last month. If the Bills’ coaches (namely head man Rex Ryan, offensive coordinator Greg Roman and line coach Aaron Kromer) like the athletic Henderson enough to be their left tackle and fellow second-year pro Cyrus Kouandjio on the right side, that could relegate Glenn to the bench – a place for which he’s clearly far too qualified. That seems unlikely when one considers Glenn’s track record, Henderson’s horrid 2014 and Kouandjio’s inability to get on the field as a rookie after the team used a second-round pick on him, but the fact that Carucci mentioned the idea means it isn’t totally far-fetched.

Even if Glenn does ultimately start and impress for a fourth straight season, it may not be enough to sway Bills brass, led by general manager Doug Whaley, in his favor. Carucci noted late last month that, given the Bills’ desire to keep a dominant defense together, Glenn was at the bottom of an extension pecking order that includes Dareus and linebacker Nigel Bradham, whose deal also expires at year’s end.

In the event the Bills do find a way to keep Glenn as part of their long-term core, a deal in the range of $30MM to $40MM overall may be in the offing. That’s roughly the going rate nowadays among good, in-their-prime tackles – evidenced by the recent contracts given to Rodger Saffold ($31.7MM), Jared Veldheer ($35MM) and Eugene Monroe ($37.5MM) – not to mention a significant step up from the rookie deal under which Glenn is currently playing.

One comparable Glenn and his agent could use is Veldheer, whose resume was similar to Glenn’s in places when he signed his deal as a free agent in 2014. At the time, Veldheer was 26, a four-year veteran, with 48 starts under his belt. On the other hand, two of Veldheer’s seasonal performances drew negative grades from PFF and he missed 11 games because of a triceps tear the year before signing with the Cardinals. However, PFF did rank him as one of the league’s 16 best tackles in 2011 and ’12. Those efforts helped the ex-Raider land a five-year, $35MM payday. The total value of Veldheer’s contract currently ranks a modest 14th among left tackles, as does the the $17MM in guarantees (including a $6.25MM signing bonus) he received, per Over The Cap. If Glenn’s next contract exceeds those totals, odds are it won’t be by much.

The Bills seem to be taking a wait-and-see approach with respect to Glenn’s long-term status. But if Henderson and Kouandjio don’t take sizable steps in 2015, it’s hard to imagine Buffalo letting Glenn go without a fight. Quality left tackles who are young and durable aren’t exactly easy to come by, and a team whose O-line was a major weakness last season (and could be again this year) isn’t in position to allow one of its few capable blockers to head elsewhere.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2015 Release Candidates: NFC North

July 10th, 2015 at 7:44pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Most clubs have fairly set rosters at this point, as OTA, minicamp, and preseason performances won’t do much to alter roster composition. The majority of key releases came in March, but there are still several scenarios where certain contributors could lose their roster spot in the coming months. For the most part, we’ll focus on situations where the cap savings would be in excess of $1MM.

Because free agency has already passed, financial ramifications won’t play a huge role in these decisions; there aren’t a ton of high-profile free agents on which to spend that saved money, so these calls will mostly be made based on performance. However, any cap space saved through these potential releases could be rolled over into 2016, so that’s something clubs have to consider.

We’ve already looked at the AFC East, NFC East, and AFC North, so let’s dive into the NFC North…

Chicago Bears:

  • Jermon Bushrod, T: There’s no disputing that Bushrod an improvement over what the Bears were running out at left tackle in the years preceding his arrival in the Windy City — but that doesn’t mean that he’s been worth the five-year, nearly $36MM contract he signed with Chicago prior to the 2013 season. He’s actually been well below-average, according to Pro Football Focus’ metrics (subscription required), which ranked Bushrod as the 55th- and 57th-best left tackle in the league in 2013 and 2014, respectively. $1MM of his $5MM base salary became fully guaranteed earlier this year, however, so if the Bears were going to cut him they already would’ve (and it’s not as as though there a litany of left tackle options lying around the free agent market, anyway). But given that we’ve passed the June 1 cutoff, Chicago could save $4.85MM by releasing the 30-year-old Bushrod now; if he falters again in ’15, I suspect the club might part ways with him next season (when they could save $4.3MM before June 1 and $6.5MM after said date). Prediction: not released.
  • Matt Slauson, G: The only other Bear who is even remotely a candidate for release is another offensive lineman, left guard Matt Slauson. The 29-year-old played in only five contests last year, missing a few weeks at the beginning of the season due to a high ankle sprain before being placed on injured reserve after tearing his pectoral in Week 8. Similar to their situation at left tacke, the Bears don’t have any viable replacements were they to release Slauson, as Michael Ola was thoroughly unimpressive while filling in on the interior last season, and free agent signee Vlad Ducasse has never lived up to his second-round billing. Additionally, Slauson was quite good in 2013 after coming over from the Jets, and just signed a four-year deal last January, so there’s no reason Chicago won’t give him a chance to get healthy and prove his worth. Prediction: not released.

Detroit Lions:

  • Ryan Broyles, WR: Broyles was only nine months removed from a torn ACL when he entered the league in 2012, and he suffered another ACL injury (opposite knee) during his rookie season. Midway through his sophomore season in 2013, he was dealt another blow as he ruptured his Achilles. Broyles was largely healthy during the 2014 campaign, but still didn’t play much — he’s totaled just 21 games during his three-year career. Thought to be an explosive slot weapon coming out of Oklahoma, it seems like injuries have sapped much of Broyles’ athleticism, and though the Lions would save less than $900K by cutting him, he seems like a long shot to earn a spot on Detroit’s roster, let alone make his first significant NFL contribution at age 27. Prediction: waived.
  • Jason Jones, DE: The 29-year-old Jones is entering the final season of a three-year deal, and is scheduled to count nearly $4MM against Detroit’s cap. His first season with the Lions — 2013 — was a wash, as he played in just three games before suffering a season-ending injury. Jones played in (and started) all 16 games last season, but wasn’t very effective, ranking as the just the 47th 4-3 defensive end among 59 qualifiers, according to PFF. Digging into the numbers a little deeper gives a better overall impression, as Jones ranked in the top half the league against the run and total pressures, but he finished only 36th in pass rush productivity. The Lions lost both Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley to free agency, so they need all the help they can get along the defensive line — it’s just not clear if Jones is all that helpful. In his early Lions 53-man roster projection, Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com noted that Detroit likes that fact that Jones can play both end and tackle, surmising that that versatility could keep him on the roster (for the record, Rothstein did list Jones among his projected final 53). For now, Jones is probably safe, but if a backup shows something in training camp, or a high-quality option can be found via the waiver wire, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Jones out of a job. Prediction: not released.
  • Stephen Tulloch, LB: Tulloch’s season was (somewhat embarrassingly) cut short when he tore his ACL while celebrating a sack during a Week 3 contest against the Packers. There a quite a few factors working against Tulloch’s return to Detroit: his recovery from his injury; his $5.8MM cap figure, $4.3MM of of which would be wiped out if he’s released; and the presence of fourth-year pro Tahir Whitehead, who filled in admirably at middle linebacker in Whitehead’s absence. However, Tulloch ranked as the second-best inside linebacker in the league as recently as 2013 (per PFF), and Tulloch indicated through an Instagram post earlier this year that he’d be back in Detroit for 2015. That post doesn’t mean his return is official, obviously, but it might indicate that Lions management told him he’d be retained. Prediction: not released.

Green Bay Packers:

  • Mike Neal, LB: As I wrote earlier this year in the Packers Offseason Outlook post, Neal’s production simply doesn’t match his production. Signed to a two-year, $8MM deal prior to last season, the 28-year-old Neal went on to rank as the worst 3-4 outside linebacker in the league according to PFF, finishing as the worst pass-rusher at his position by a considerable margin. In May, however, Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com noted that Neal had been paid a roster bonus — which Over the Cap pegs at $1.3MM — so if Green Bay had wanted to release Neal, they obviously wouldn’t have shelled out that cash. Prediction: not released.
  • Julius Peppers, LB: Peppers is only listed here due to the combination of his age (35) and the large bump in his cap figure from 2014 ($3.5MM) to 2015 ($12MM). Neither his ’15 nor ’16 base salaries are guaranteed, so the Packers could clear all but the remaining $5MM in bonus money left on his deal. But Peppers was simply too valuable during his first year in Green Bay to let go, although the Packers could approach him about a restructure. Prediction: not released.
  • Nick Perry, LB: Only three other 2012 first-round picks have accumulated fewer snaps than Perry during their first three seasons in the NFL: Dre Kirkpatrick, who was buried on the Bengals’ CB depth chart until the end of last season; David Wilson, who is now retired due to injuries; and A.J. Jenkins, perhaps the most obvious first-round bust from that ’12 draft. Perry doesn’t have much special teams value, either, although his ST snap percentage has risen from less than 4% his rookie year to 16.5% in 2014. The Packers already declined Perry’s 2016 option, and even with Clay Matthews moving to the inside, there’s no reason to pay Perry his full 2015 cap charge when the club could save nearly $1.5MM by cutting him. Between fourth-rounder Jake Ryan, and the several UDFAs Green Bay signed after the draft, the team should be able to rely on players making minimum salary to fill in its linebacking unit. Prediction: waived.
  • Andrew Quarless, TE: The Packers reportedly don’t plan to release Quarless in the wake of his recent arrest, and while that could obviously change, it’s much too soon (and the situation too bereft of facts) to render a prediction.

Minnesota Vikings:

  • Casey Matthews, LB: Matthews doesn’t fit our criteria of offering cap savings of $1MM+, but I included him here both because he played a semi-prominent role in Philadelphia last year after DeMeco Ryans suffered an injury, and because some expected him to possibly start for the Vikings following the departure of Jasper Brinkley. Minnesota selected UCLA linebacker Eric Kendricks in the second round of this year’s draft, however, and that combined with the presence of Audie Cole means that Matthews wouldn’t have a shot at much playing time. Prediction: released.
  • Brian Robison, DE: Robison has been the Vikings’ full-time starter at left end four four seasons, and 2014 was his first truly sub-par season, as he graded as the league’s No. 52 4-3 defensive end among 59 qualifiers per PFF. He’d been above average in the years prior, especially excelling at pass rushing. Robison is signed for three more years, and Minnesota would actually save a good deal of cap space ($4.65MM) by releasing him, but given that he was still productive just two seasons ago, I’d expect him to be retained, especially given that the Vikings don’t have much in the way of defensive end depth. Prediction: not released.
  • LB Chad Greenway accepted a pay cut earlier this offseason or he would have likely been released.

Largest 2015 Cap Hits By Team: AFC West

July 10th, 2015 at 6:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Before NFL training camps get underway later this month, we’re taking a closer look at the top 2015 cap hits for teams around the league. We began our series in June by focusing on the NFC East and AFC East divisions, before looking at the NFC North, AFC North, and NFC South last week. Earlier this week, we recapped the AFC South and NFC West, and today we’ll wrap up our series by concluding with the AFC West.

Listed below are the top 10 cap hits for the coming season for each of the four AFC West franchises, accompanied by some observations on the spending habits of those clubs. Let’s dive in….

Denver Broncos:

  1. Peyton Manning, QB: $17,500,000
  2. Demaryius Thomas, WR: $12,823,000
  3. Von Miller, OLB: $9,754,000
  4. DeMarcus Ware, OLB: $8,666,666
  5. T.J. Ward, S: $7,750,000
  6. Aqib Talib, CB: $6,968,750
  7. Louis Vasquez, G: $6,250,000
  8. Emmanuel Sanders, WR: $5,850,000
  9. Britton Colquitt, P: $3,750,000
  10. Chris Harris, CB: $3,000,000
    Total: $82,312,416

The top three contracts on the Broncos’ list are all ones worth keeping an eye on. Manning’s cap number for 2015 was adjusted earlier in the offseason, bringing it down from $21.5MM, while Thomas and Miller are both candidates for extensions. Thomas’ figure is based on the franchise tag and Miller’s is based on the fifth-year option — presumably, the team would like to lock up at least one of those two players to a long-term contract this offseason to avoid having to decide between them for the franchise tag in 2016.

Elsewhere on the list, Sanders and Harris look like two of the NFL’s best bargains. Harris’ cap hit will jump to $9MM in 2016, but based on what Byron Maxwell received on the open market this winter, that still looks like a very fair price for one of the top cornerbacks in the league. As for Sanders, his cap charge continues to be very affordable next year, at just $6MM.

One name that jumps out on this list is Colquitt, who is a solid but unspectacular punter, ranking 23rd in net average last year. It looks like the team will probably carry him this year, but when his cap hit increases to $4MM in 2016, with just $750K in dead money, it may be time to bring in some legitimate competition at the position.

Kansas City Chiefs:

  1. Alex Smith, QB: $15,600,000
  2. Justin Houston, OLB: $13,195,000
  3. Dwayne Bowe, WR: $8,894,118 (dead money)
  4. Eric Berry, S: $8,357,700
  5. Jamaal Charles, RB: $7,970,835
  6. Sean Smith, CB: $7,750,000
  7. Eric Fisher, LT: $6,051,954
  8. Derrick Johnson, LB: $5,250,000
  9. Tamba Hali, OLB: $4,964,706
  10. Chase Daniel, QB: $4,800,000
    Total: $82,834,313

Like the Broncos, the Chiefs have a franchise player near the top of their list of cap numbers, so if Houston reaches a long-term agreement with the club within the next few days, his number could be reduced.

Still, there are some unexpected names here for Kansas City — Bowe, for instance, will be playing in Cleveland this season while he continues to count for nearly $9MM against the Chiefs’ cap. It’s also not clear if Berry will be able to return to the field in 2015, though obviously his recovery from lymphoma is more important than any cap considerations.

When I looked at the NFC West earlier this week, I observed that the Cardinals were one of the league’s only teams with two quarterbacks amongst their top 10 cap charges. Kansas City is the other club to have that honor, and it’s somewhat surprising that Daniel’s contract hasn’t been addressed. The Chiefs clearly value him highly, having made him one of the NFL’s highest-paid backups, despite the fact that he has only thrown 75 passes in his career.

Oakland Raiders:

  1. Rodney Hudson, C: $13,000,000
  2. Dan Williams, DT: $8,000,000
  3. Nate Allen, S: $7,000,000
  4. Tyvon Branch, S: $6,671,000 (dead money)
  5. Curtis Lofton, LB: $6,500,000
  6. Austin Howard, RT: $6,400,000
  7. Donald Penn, LT: $5,400,000
  8. Justin Tuck, DE: $4,968,750
  9. Khalil Mack, OLB: $4,244,773
  10. Charles Woodson, S: $4,200,000
    Total: $66,384,523

The Raiders entered the offseason with a boatload of cap room to use, and they took advantage by lavishing lucrative contracts onto a handful of free agents who may not have been entirely deserving of such big annual salaries.

Still, it’s worth pointing out that the figures here for Hudson, Williams, Allen, and Lofton aren’t quite representative of their per-year salaries — all four players will see their cap numbers decrease in future seasons, with Hudson dipping most drastically between 2015 and 2016, from $13MM to $7.7MM. The contracts themselves may not turn out to be smart investments, but Oakland was smart to allocate larger cap hits to 2015, when the team had cap space to burn.

The Raiders, like a handful of other teams we’ve examined so far, benefit from not having to spend big yet on their young quarterback, but the club’s spending habits at other positions are a little unusual. While most teams would invest most heavily in players on the outside – left tackles, edge rushers, wide receivers, and cornerbacks – the Raiders’ top 2015 cap hits are all for up-the-middle players, including a center, defensive tackle, safety, and inside linebacker.

San Diego Chargers:

  1. Philip Rivers, QB: $17,416,668
  2. Eric Weddle, S: $10,100,000
  3. Antonio Gates, TE: $9,762,500
  4. Corey Liuget, DT: $7,977,000
  5. Donald Butler, LB: $5,480,000
  6. Malcom Floyd, WR: $4,716,668
  7. Orlando Franklin, G: $4,400,000
  8. Mike Scifres, P: $4,347,500
  9. Brandon Flowers, CB: $4,250,000
  10. King Dunlap, LT: $4,125,000
    Total: $72,575,336

The Chargers’ top 10 cap numbers for 2015 are made up nearly entirely of players who are entering the final year of their respective contracts and players who just signed new contracts with the club this offseason. Only Butler, who signed an extension in 2014, and Scifres, who is under contract for 2016, don’t meet this criteria.

Of the longtime Chargers entering the final year of their contracts, Rivers appears to have the best chance of reaching a long-term extension that would affect his cap number for 2015. Talks between the Chargers and Weddle haven’t gone well, Gates is facing a four-game suspension, and Floyd has talked about the possibility of retiring after the coming season.

As for the recently signed players, Liuget, Flowers, and Dunlap re-upped with San Diego this offseason, with Flowers and Dunlap narrowly avoiding reaching the open market, while Franklin was poached from the division-rival Broncos. All four players will see their cap numbers rise after this season, going from a combined $20.752 in 2015 to a total of $33.275 in 2016.

Information from Over the Cap was used in the creation of this post.

Community Tailgate: 7/10/15

July 10th, 2015 at 4:46pm CST by Luke Adams

We’re still about two months away from the start of battles on the NFL gridiron, but there’s no offseason when it comes to debate amongst fans. Earlier this summer, we launched a new series here at PFR that will be known as the Community Tailgate. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. Every weekday, we’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

Today, we’ll focus on the afternoon’s big news and take a closer look at the reduction of Greg Hardy‘s suspension. After initially being banned for 10 games, the Cowboys defensive end had his suspension cut to four games today by arbitrator Harold Henderson, who said in a statement that 10 games was “simply too much of an increase over prior cases.”

Taking into account the details of Hardy’s domestic violence case, a mere four-game suspension sounds awfully light, especially considering Tom Brady is currently facing the same penalty for his possible involvement in DeflateGate, a case which lacked the sort of hard evidence available against Hardy. Of course, the two cases are wildly different, but it still isn’t a good look for the NFL that the two players are facing equal penalties.

On the other hand, Hardy’s domestic incident took place while the league’s old personal conduct policy was still in effect, and that policy called for a two-game suspension for this sort of violation. Throw in the fact that Hardy was forced out of action for 15 games in 2014, spending time on the commissioner’s exempt list while the legal process played out, and you could make a case that the four-game ban is still too much. Agent Drew Rosenhaus left the door open today for Hardy to continue to fight the suspension in court in an effort to reduce it to two games, though Jason Cole of Bleacher Report (video link) says that’s unlikely to happen.

What do you think? Is a four-game suspension fair for Hardy? Should he and his camp drop their fight and accept the reduced penalty? And, on a somewhat related note, does today’s ruling alter your view of Brady’s appeal, and how Roger Goodell might rule in that case? Weigh in below in the comments section with your thoughts and opinions and the subject. We’re looking forward to hearing what you have to say!

Offseason In Review: New England Patriots

July 9th, 2015 at 9:39pm CST by Zachary Links

The Patriots made headlines all winter and spring long thanks to the DeflateGate scandal. Their actual football moves, however, didn’t garner as much ink. It remains to be seen how the Pats will actually fare in 2015, but right now this offseason appears to be more about what they lost than what they gained.

Notable signings:

The Patriots were always said to be in the driver’s seat when it came to safety Devin McCourty and they struck agreement with the Pro Bowler days before the opening of free agency. The new pact is worth $47.5MM over five years and McCourty reportedy turned down more lucrative offers to stay in New England. It also doesn’t hurt that the deal includes $28.5MM in guaranteed cash for the Rutgers product. The Jaguars, Eagles, and Giants all made hard pushes to sign the play making free safety, but it sounds like McCourty didn’t have much interest in signing elsewhere.

Jabaal Sheard saw his sack count decrease in each of his NFL seasons, from 8.5 in 2011 to just 2.0 in 2014. The Browns also took him out of the starting lineup this past season, reducing his snap count to 690. However, Sheard played very well in the new role — out of all the league’s 3-4 outside linebackers, only Terrell Suggs had a better grade against the run, per PFF. If the Patriots can keep him off the field in passing situations, Sheard can do some serious damage for them either as a linebacker or a defensive end.

Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski signed his one-year franchise contract tender in early March, giving him a salary of $4.6MM for the upcoming season. The 31-year-old has led the NFL in field goals in each of the last two seasons, making 73 of his 78 total attempts during that stretch, for a 93.6% mark. Gostkowski has also made all 95 of his extra point tries over the last two years. That success prompted the Pats to designate him as their franchise player, rather than using the tag on McCourty.

In January, the Pats signed safety Patrick Chung to a three-year extension worth up to $8.2MM, with $3.4MM guaranteed. The advanced statistics suggest that Chung was one of the best safeties in the league in 2014, as Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranked him as the 12th-best at his position. Chung will now be sticking with the organization that selected him in the second round of the 2009 draft. Chung signed a one-year deal with the Eagles two years ago, but a mediocre 2013 season prompted his release.

Shortly after extending Chung, the Pats reached agreement on a new pact with cornerback Brandon Bolden. Bolden was set to hit restricted free agency this offseason, but the 24-year-old is now signed to be a part of the Pats’ backfield through 2016. Bolden joined the Patriots as an undrafted free agent in 2012, and the former Mississippi standout quickly made a name for himself. In only his third career game, the running back rushed for 137 yards and a touchdown against the Bills. Since then, he hasn’t produced much on the ground, and he only compiled 28 carries for 98 yards and a score in 2014.

Tight end Scott Chandler was released by the Bills in March but quickly found a new home in the AFC East. The 6’7″ athlete hauled in 47 catches for 497 yards and three touchdowns in 2014. Chandler was something of a late bloomer in the league, as he did not see any time on an NFL field between his debut in 2007 with the Chargers and his return in 2010 with the Bills. In Buffalo, he asserted himself as a real NFL talent and not just a taxi squad filler.

Pro Football Focus (subscription required) rated Bradley Fletcher as the 92nd best cornerback last season out of 108 qualified players at the position. He was much better in 2013, however, having been ranked 44th out of 110 players at the position. The Pats are hoping that they can get Fletcher to revert to his old form and they weren’t the only team with that idea in mind. The veteran also drew interest from the Vikings before the official start of free agency.

After losing Shane Vereen, the Patriots signed former Saints back Travaris Cadet to fill a similar role. Cadet, 26, saw his first significant action for the Saints in 2014, hauling in 38 passes on 51 targets, totaling 296 yards and a touchdown on those receptions. Although he was listed as a running back and generally lined up in the backfield, the Appalachian State product only had 10 carries for 32 yards.

Notable losses:

The Patriots decided not to pick up the 2015 option on star cornerback Darrelle Revis, not because they didn’t want him, but because the $25MM cap hit would have been too much to bear. Now, the Pats will have to deal with seeing him multiple times each season now that he’s back with the Jets, but they’re probably not envious of the price Gang Green paid to get him. The 29-year-old appeared in all 19 of the Patriots’ games in 2014 (playoffs included) and ranked as the fourth-best cornerback in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus’ grading system (subscription required). He also earned his sixth Pro Bowl nod and fourth First-Team All-Pro selection.

Revis’ secondary partner Brandon Browner was also shown the door. The veteran corner, who turns 31 in August, appeared in nine regular season games for New England in his suspension-shortened season. He recorded 32 total tackles, seven pass deflections, and one interception during that time. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) wasn’t wowed by Browner’s performance in 2014, ranking him No. 79 out of 108 qualified cornerbacks.

In May, the Pats decided that they might as well get rid of all of their top CBs when they released Kyle Arrington. Arrington had two years left on his deal at non-guaranteed salaries of $3MM in 2015 and $3.5MM in 2016 and while a reunion at a reduced rate was thought to be possible, he wound up signing with the Ravens.

Two notable running backs – Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley – made their exit from New England this offseason. Vereen joined up with the Giants on a deal with an AAV of ~$4MM. The 26-year-old ran for 391 yards off of 96 carries in 2014, good for an average of 4.1 yards per attempt. He was also heavily involved in the Pats’ passing game for the second year in a row, recording 52 catches for 447 yards. Pro Football Focus (sub. req’d) placed him as the 28th best tailback out of 57 qualified players last season with a slightly below average grade of -1.0. Ridley, meanwhile, has joined the rival Jets. Ridley was once one of the brightest young running backs in the league, but he couldn’t hang on to the ball in 2013 and his season was cut short by injury in 2014.

The Pats elected not to exercise their option on Vince Wilfork in early March, making him a free agent. The veteran spent all 11 years of his career with the Patriots, playing 158 regular season games for the club, and starting 148 of those. An anchor in the middle of the defensive line in New England for the last decade, Wilfork looked like he may be leaving the team a year ago, before the two sides worked out a new deal to keep him around for the club’s Super Bowl 2014 season. This time, he’s gone for real.

Tim Wright, who came to the Patriots last year as a part of the Logan Mankins deal with the Buccaneers, was released in June. The move was somewhat surprising, but the Pats likely felt that Wright’s role on the team can be filled by offseason pickup Scott Chandler.

Extensions and restructures:

Jerod Mayo’s previous contract with the Pats called for a $6.25MM base salary in 2015, and cap numbers averaging about $10MM for the next three years, through 2017. Now, the new pact is a one-year contract that includes $4.5MM in guaranteed money. That amount is equivalent to the injury guarantee New England would have owed the 29-year-old if the club had cut him before he was deemed healthy.

Danny Amendola‘s new deal is a bit more reasonable for the Pats given his production and overall health. Last year, Amendola caught 27 passes for 200 yards with one touchdown. The advanced stats at Pro Football Focus (subscription required) gave Amendola an overall grade of -7.0, ranking him 93rd out of 110 qualified wide receivers.

 

Trades:

  • Acquired a 2015 fourth-round pick (No. 111; G Tre Jackson), a fifth-round pick (No. 147), and a sixth-round pick (No. 202; TE A.J. Derby) from the Browns in exchange for a 2015 third-round pick (No. 96; DT Xavier Cooper) and a 2015 seventh-round pick (No. 219; ILB Hayes Pullard).
  • Acquired a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 166; LS Joe Cardona) and a 2015 seventh-round pick (No. 247; CB Darryl Roberts) from the Packers in exchange for a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 147; QB Brett Hundley).

Draft picks:

  • 1-32: Malcom Brown, DT (Texas): Signed
  • 2-64: Jordan Richards, DB (Stanford): Signed
  • 3-97: Geneo Grissom, DE (Oklahoma): Signed
  • 4-101: Trey Flowers, DE (Arkansas): Signed
  • 4-111: Tre’ Jackson, G (Florida State): Signed
  • 4-131: Shaq Mason, OL (Georgia Tech): Signed
  • 5-166: Joe Cardona, LS (Navy): Signed
  • 6-178: Matthew Wells, OLB (Mississippi State): Signed
  • 6-202: A.J. Derby, TE (Arkansas): Signed
  • 7-247: Darryl Roberts, CB (Marshall): Signed
  • 7-253: Xzavier Dickson, DE (Alabama): Signed

With their first-round pick, the Pats plucked Texas defensive tackle Malcom Brown, ostensibly as a replacement for Vince Wilfork. Brown broke out in 2014 with 6.5 sacks and 13 tackles for loss and he became the first defensive tackle to lead Texas in both categories in 30 years. If Brown can attract double teams the way that Wilfork did, the Pats might not miss the veteran all that much in 2015.

Other:

Brady is still awaiting word on his appeal but as we learned Thursday, we could be getting closer to a ruling.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. Tom Brady, QB: $14,000,000
  2. Rob Gronkowski, TE: $8,650,000
  3. Nate Solder, LT: $7,438,000
  4. Sebastian Vollmer, RT: $7,020,833
  5. Jerod Mayo, LB: $6,100,000
  6. Devin McCourty, S: $6,000,000
  7. Darrelle Revis, CB: $5,000,000 (dead money)
  8. Rob Ninkovich, DE: $4,750,000
  9. Julian Edelman, WR: $4,656,250
  10. Stephen Gostkowski, K: $4,590,000

The Patriots had enough question marks this offseason with so many familiar faces out of the picture. Now, the prospect of being without Brady for the first month of the season looms over them. You can never count the Patriots out, but the AFC East now seems more wide open than ever.

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

Community Tailgate: 7/9/15

July 9th, 2015 at 5:27pm CST by Zachary Links

We’re still more than two months away from the start of battles on the NFL gridiron, but there’s no offseason when it comes to debate amongst fans. Earlier this summer, we launched a new series here at PFR that will be known as the Community Tailgate. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. Every weekday, we’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

Today, we’ll be gauging your gut feeling on the Tom Brady appeal. The appeal hearing for Brady’s four-game suspension took place more than two weeks ago and, finally, it sounds like we’re on the verge of a ruling. Commissioner Roger Goodell, who also acted as the arbitrator in Tom Brady‘s appeal hearing last month, said today that he expects to announce a decision on the case soon, perhaps as early as next week.

Even weeks later, the NFL’s decision to suspend the Patriots QB for four games comes as something of a shock, not necessarily because he didn’t deserve it, but because he has become the NFL’s foremost star. Now that the league office has had some additional time to cool off, it’s conceivable that Goodell will be a little bit more lax this time around. There is also precedent for the lowering of suspensions following major scandals. Saints defensive lineman Anthony Hargrove was one example – he was suspended eight games for his obstruction in Bountygate, but he later had that penalty reduced to two games. Then again – despite the league’s claims that Executive Vice President of Football Operations Troy Vincent was the one who handed down the penalty – Goodell unquestionably had a major role in the suspension. Would he be willing to essentially admit to a wrong judgement in the DeflateGate scandal?

In a May poll, more than 62% of you said that Brady would get his suspension slashed from four games to something less harsh. Now that we’re (potentially) days away from a verdict, where do you stand? Will Brady have his suspension reduced, or will he serve the full four games? Let us know in the comment section below!

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