The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
This morning, we took a look at where the ongoing offensive coordinator searches stand, and this afternoon we’ll shift our focus to the remaining defensive coordinator vacancies.
While the OC openings are fairly clear cut, three potential defensive coordinator positions are still up in the air due to the Falcons’ head coaching search. No matter which head coach they hire, the Falcons will likely be in the market for a new defensive coordinator, and both of their finalists are current DCs for another team — if Atlanta hires Dan Quinn, as expected, the Seahawks will have to find a new coordinator. If their arrangement with Quinn falls through, the Falcons would likely turn to Lions defensive coordinator Teryl Austin, leaving Detroit to find a replacement.
In addition to those clubs, three more clubs are also currently hunting for a new defensive coordinator, so there are plenty of situations to examine. Let’s dive right in, with the help of our OC/DC search tracker….
After Todd Bowles landed in New York as the Jets’ new head coach, the early word out of Arizona was that the Cardinals would likely promote an internal candidate to replace Bowles, with James Bettcher, Brentson Buckner, Kevin Ross, Nick Rapone, and Tom Pratt as potential options. However, that report was published over a week ago, and there’s been no indication that the Cardinals are much closer to hiring Bowles’ replacement.
The team is reportedly interested in bringing aboard Dick LeBeau, but it appears it would be as a linebackers coach or perhaps as a senior defensive assistant. A report on Wednesday suggested that LeBeau was still interested in a coordinator position, so perhaps that’s why nothing has been finalized with the Cards yet. Arizona has also been linked to Mike Nolan, but it’s not entirely clear what Nolan’s situation is in Atlanta. Presumably, the new head coach will look to replace Nolan, but he remains under contract with the Falcons for now, having signed a two-year extension a year ago.
Speaking of those Falcons, there’s not much we know about their defensive coordinator job at this point. If Dan Quinn gets the head coaching job – and every indication is that he will – he could bring a coach from Seattle with him, particularly since most of the most attractive outside candidates will have found work by the time Quinn officially comes aboard (after the Super Bowl). It’s possible that Mike Nolan sticks around in Atlanta, but it seems unlikely at this point.
The Broncos targeted Bengals defensive backs coach Vance Joseph early in their search. Denver actually interviewed Joseph for its head coaching opening, though it’s not clear if he was ever a viable candidate for that spot — I expect that interview served the dual purpose of ensuring that the Broncos adhered to the Rooney Rule and allowing the team to get a feel for Joseph as a DC candidate. The only problem? While the Bengals were willing to let Joseph interview for a HC job, the club is now unwilling to let him out of his contract for a DC position.
Denver hasn’t given up on its No. 1 target — Mike Klis of the Denver Post, who wrote earlier this week that the Bengals and the NFL should do the right thing and allow Joseph to leave Cincinnati for a promotion, says the Broncos continue to monitor the situation. If the Bengals don’t budge though, the Broncos will have to move on to other options, and that could mean speaking to former head coach Wade Phillips, who has been mentioned as a candidate.
Like the Broncos, the Raiders appear to have a clear preference for the coach they’d like to hire. Former Falcons head coach Mike Smith has been cited as Jack Del Rio‘s top candidate since Del Rio landed Oakland’s head coaching job, and the two sides have been in contact, but it seems Smith isn’t fully sold on the opportunity. If he was, the Raiders would likely have locked him up already.
With Smith no sure thing, the Raiders have former Bears defensive coordinator Mel Tucker on their radar and have also been linked to Wade Phillips. The club may ultimately turn to the NCAA ranks, as a Thursday report suggested, though no specific college candidates have been reported yet. Bill Williamson of ESPN.com wrote that if the Raiders do hire a coach from a college program, that would probably signal that the team was turned down by other candidates, and that Del Rio intends to call defensive plays, meaning that the new coordinator would have less latitude.
We’re including the Seahawks here rather than the Lions because it looks like a near-lock that Dan Quinn will head to Atlanta, with Teryl Austin returning to Detroit. Still, there’s no indication yet who would replace Quinn for the ‘Hawks. With so much talent on the defensive side of the ball in Seattle, the position could intrigue some big-name candidates who perhaps haven’t been interested in the other openings, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the club ultimately opts for an in-house promotion — of course, that’s assuming that Quinn doesn’t take the best internal candidates with him to Atlanta.
There’s been plenty of turnover among the offensive coordinator ranks around the NFL already this offseason, with about a third of the league’s franchies hiring new OCs so far — 10 teams have hired replacements for their old coordinators, while the Cowboys are technically the 11th to install a new OC, having given Scott Linehan the official title that Bill Callahan previously held.
As our coordinator search tracker shows, even after those 11 teams have made changes, there are still three clubs with vacancies at the position, though it’s possible only two of those clubs will actually make a hire. Here’s the latest on the three teams still without an offensive coordinator:
The Niners have already added one notable name to their offensive staff, hiring ex-Raiders interim coach Tony Sparano as their tight ends coach, but are still in need of a coordinator to oversee the offense. The club pursued former Broncos OC Adam Gase before he landed with the Bears, which leaves three candidates who have been linked to the club since the hiring of head coach Jim Tomsula: Mike Shanahan, Lane Kiffin, and Rob Chudzinski.
Shanahan’s name came up about a week ago, but he hasn’t received much buzz since then, and it looks to me as if Kiffin and Chudzinski are the favorites for the position. In fact, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported over the weekend that Kiffin appeared to be the frontrunner. Since then, the Colts have rebuffed San Francisco’s attempt to speak to Chudzinski, which would seem to further solidify Kiffin as a top option, but we shouldn’t rule out the Colts assistant quite yet. Alex Marvez of Fox Sports reports (via Twitter) that Chudzinski’s contract with Indianapolis expires on Monday, at which point he’s expected to interview with the 49ers and Rams.
As noted above, the Rams are expected to interview Colts assistant Rob Chudzinski when his contract with Indianapolis expires on Monday, and the fact that both San Francisco and St. Louis are willing to wait on Chudzinski suggests he’s a viable candidate for both clubs. Like the 49ers, the Rams had interest in Adam Gase and have been declined permission to speak to Chudzinski until now — St. Louis was also turned away when the team attempted to speak to Packers assistant Alex Van Pelt, and has seen a number of potential targets, including Greg Roman and Kyle Shanahan, land jobs with other clubs.
Still, the Rams did interview a candidate this week, in former Bills OC Nathaniel Hackett. Perhaps at this point Hackett is a top target by default, but a Thursday report indicated that the team may be comfortable promoting an in-house coach into the OC role. Tight ends coach Rob Boras and quarterbacks coach Frank Cignetti are viewed as strong candidates who are already on the staff, per Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, who adds that Boras would probably get the nod over Cignetti if the Rams stay in house.
The Texans didn’t have an offensive coordinator on staff in 2014, with head coach Bill O’Brien serving as the de facto OC. Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com reported earlier in the week that Houston could add an OC to the staff for 2015, but there has been no news on that front since La Canfora addressed the topic. The CBSSports.com scribe noted that Doug Marrone would be a strong candidate for such a position, so the fact that Marrone ultimately accepted a non-OC job in Jacksonville suggests the Texans may not be hiring an OC after all. Nonetheless, it’s a situation worth monitoring.
After winning just 29 games in the six seasons prior to head coach Andy Reid’s arrival, the Chiefs have won 20 games in the past two seasons alone, earning a postseason berth in 2013. Reid’s first season in Kansas City was a massive success, as the club went from owning the No. 1 overall draft pick after posting a 2-14 record to finishing 11-5. Many correctly predicted 2014 would be a year of regression for the Chiefs, but the team didn’t fall off a cliff — it still managed to win nine games, and nearly made the playoffs for the second year in a row.
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Reid and general manager John Dorsey surely believe their club is a year-in, year-out contender, and with quarterback Alex Smith now signed through the 2018 season, the Chiefs have their most important piece locked up. Continuity is an important factor in building a championship-caliber team, something Dorsey acknowledges. “We’re not in the game to blow things up,” Dorsey told Terez A. Paylor of the Kansas City Star earlier this month. “I don’t think you can do that, but these guys understand that, in order to achieve a high level of success, you’re going to be in this thing together.”
Still, fiscal decisions will have to be made in the coming months — assuming a $140MM cap for 2014, Over the Cap’s data shows the Chiefs to be more than $2MM in the red. Small restructures can be finagled to move money around, ensuring that the team can sign its draft class and make modest free agent additions. But unless Kansas City does something drastic, it won’t be able to do much to upgrade this offseason. That’s why the notion of cutting longtime pass-rusher Tamba Hali isn’t so crazy.
The Chiefs selected Hali, now 31, in the first round of the 2006 draft. The Penn State alum entered the league as a 4-3 defensive end in former Kansas City coach Herm Edwards’ scheme and struggled to find success, accruing -11.5 and +0.1 grades in ’06 and ’07, respectively, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Todd Haley took over as KC’s head coach in 2008, and the team installed a 3-4 look, the scheme they’ve employed ever since. After moving to outside linebacker, Hali has excelled, registering a positive PFF grade every season (including 2010, when he was ranked as the league’s top 3-4 OLB); since the position switch in ’08, he ranks eighth in the league with 64 sacks.
Hali’s play has declined with age, to be sure — he posted just six sacks last season, and while his +11.2 PFF grade still ranked him among the top-15 3-4 OLBs, his production clearly isn’t where it was a few years ago. Even more pressing is Hali’s salary as he enters the final year of his contact. He’s set to earn a base salary of $6.75MM, and is due a $2MM roster bonus and a $250K workout bonus — combined with his signing bonus proration, Hali will count roughly $11.965MM against the cap in 2015, the third-highest figure at his position in the league. That roster bonus is due on March 19, so the Chiefs have just under two months to make a decision on Hali.
As I noted, Kansas City is projected to be roughly $2MM over the cap in 2015 — however, that number doesn’t account for pass-rusher Justin Houston, a free-agent-to-be who seems destined for the franchise tag (at a value of around $13MM). Additionally, the club is not without needs, as upgrades could be used at positions like receiver, offensive line, and the secondary. By releasing Hali, the Chiefs would save $9MM in cap space (they’d only be on the hook for his a portion of his signing bonus, roughly $2.965MM), enabling them to pursue improvements in other areas.
Of course, Hali isn’t the only Chief who could be cut in order to save the club money. Receiver Dwayne Bowe was ineffective in 2013, is set to have the second-highest cap number on the team next year; Kansas City would save $5MM by releasing him. Fellow WR Donnie Avery will be almost certainly be cut, a move that would save KC more than $3.5MM. Releasing Mike DeVito ($4MM), Joe Mays ($3MM), and A.J. Jenkins (~$1.34MM) could also clear out cap space for the Chiefs, so there are definitely other options to create financial breathing room. But if Kansas City is aiming to either franchise tag or re-sign Houston and make additions in other areas, it might not make sense to allow an aging (albeit still effective) pass-rusher like Hali to take up more than eight percent of its cap.
For his part, Hali seems amenable to taking a pay cut, or at least he’s paying lip service to that effect (via Paylor):
“At this stage of my career, it isn’t about money. The Kansas City Chiefs have taken care of me, financially. I have some good people in my corner that have positioned me to be able to live a lifestyle a lot of people won’t be able to live. So I’m not one of those guys who gets all bent out of shape over money. I love playing the game, I want to win a championship in Kansas City. If money is going to be a hindrance in doing that, we’ll find a way … we’ve got to get Justin (Houston) paid and get our guys, Dee Ford, ready to be playing at a higher level … but we’ve got to get Houston paid, I’m optimistic about that … that’s something we’ve got to get done.”
If Hali is released (if pressed, I’d say he’s about 75% likely to be cut, though a pay reduction scenario would render that estimation moot), he’d likely find a strong market for his services. Pass-rushers are always rewarded in free agency, and luckily for Hali, there are a number of teams who run a 3-4 front who will have ample cap space to use in the coming months. The Colts present the most intriguing scenario in my mind — the team will be three seasons into playing a 3-4 look, are open to spending in free agency, need pass-rush help, and will have more than $37MM of cap space to use. The Titans, with more than $40MM in space, and the Raiders (if they continue to mix in 3-4 looks) could also be interested in signing Hali, as could the Falcons (again, pending scheme changes) and the Eagles in the NFC.
At 31, Hali probably wouldn’t garner a deal in excess of four years or so, but as cap expert Joel Corry notes in the Paylor article linked above, he’d probably come out ahead by entering the market. He wouldn’t face much in the way of positional competition — with Houston likely to be franchised, the other top 3-4 OLBs include Jason Worilds, Brandon Graham, and Brian Orakpo. Hali would probably be looking at a deal in the neighborhood of DeMarcus Ware (three years, $10MM AAV, $16.5MM guaranteed) or Julius Peppers (three years, $8.67MM AAV, $7.5MM guaranteed). He’s younger than both of those comparables, so it’s conceivable he could get a four-year contract, but his AAV would probably sit in that $8.5MM range, with perhaps 40% of his total guaranteed.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.
The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
While seven NFL teams are making head coaching changes this offseason, the number of clubs replacing offensive and/or defensive coordinators figures to be much higher than that. In addition to all those teams hiring new head coaches, who will want to bring in their own assistants, several clubs also figure to make changes on one side of the ball or the other after getting disappointing results in 2014.
With reports about potential candidates, interview requests, and actual meetings circulating throughout January, we’ll use the space below to keep tabs on all the latest updates on teams hiring new offensive and/or defensive coordinators. This post, which will be updated daily, can be found under the “PFR Features” menu on the right-hand side of the site.
Here’s the latest:
Updated 2-12-15 (2:16pm CT)
Only four teams are left in the Super Bowl hunt, but even more importantly from a roster standpoint, less than two months remain until the start of the new league year and the beginning of free agency. We have seven more weeks of data since the previous edition of our free agent power rankings, and one player included in the prior list — Broncos cornerback Chris Harris — has signed an extension. With that in mind, let’s update our stock watch of the 2015 unrestricted free agent class:
1. Ndamukong Suh, DT: Already among the best available free agents heading into the stretch run, Suh ramped up his level of play during the last six games of the year, racking up four sacks and 21 tackles. He then posted a dominating performance during the Lions’ wild card round loss to the Cowboys, sacking Tony Romo twice, hurrying him five times, and registering his third-highest grade of the season per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Detroit general manager Martin Mayhew recently said the club would “leave every option open” with regards to retaining Suh, who turned 28 six days ago, but recent reports suggested that as many as 10 teams could be prepared to make “titanic pitches” to the star defensive tackle. PFR’s Luke Adams recently examined several Suh-related scenarios that could play out in the coming months, including the Lions working out a long-term agreement, using the franchise tag, or allowing the 2014 All-Pro to walk.
2. Justin Houston, OLB: Like Suh, Houston’s production in the final leg of the season was outstanding, as he posted an astounding nine sacks and 22 tackles during the Chiefs’ final five games — he took down Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers four times in Week 17 alone, hurrying him another three times. He finished the year with 22 sacks, which led the league and was just a half-sack shy of matching Michael Strahan’s all-time record. Houston, who turns 26 next Wednesday, graded out as the No. 1 3-4 outside linebacker per PFF; his +51.1 score was nearly double that of Pernell McPhee, the No. 2 finisher. There hasn’t been much news regarding Houston as of late, but the more time that passes without a long-term deal being agreed upon, the more likelier it becomes that Kansas City places the franchise tag on its pass-rusher.
3. Dez Bryant, WR: In November, reports indicated that Bryant’s camp didn’t believe they would agree to a multiyear pact with the Cowboys, meaning the star pass-catcher is likely to be franchise-tagged. Dallas has reportedly offered Bryant an extension worth $114MM over 10 years, but with just $20MM guaranteed. With the franchise tag figure for receivers expected to approach $13MM in 2015, it would make little sense for Bryant to accept such a deal. Bryant, who earned just $1.78MM in base salary this season, finished the year with 88 receptions for 1,320 yards and 16 touchdowns.
4. Demaryius Thomas, WR: Thomas, who turned 27 on Christmas Day, was solid down the stretch, averaging six receptions for 86 yards and a score over the Broncos’ final six games, before tacking on five catches for 59 yards and a touchdown in Denver’s playoff loss to the Colts on Monday; on the season, he caught 111 balls for more than 1,600 yards. In December, Thomas indicated that he was open to accepting a hometown discount to remain in Denver, noting that he was fond of playing with Peyton Manning. Now, with Manning’s future uncertain and the entire Broncos organization in a state of upheaval, it’s unclear if Thomas would offer those same sentiments. His preferences will likely be determined by the choice of head coach and Manning’s decision on retirement, but the club ultimately will have final say: if an extension can’t be worked out, the Broncos will almost certainly franchise-tag Thomas.
5. Jason Pierre-Paul, DE: Perhaps no player did more to raise his stock during the final stretch of the season than Pierre-Paul. During the Giants’ final six games, he registered nine sacks, five QB hits, and 15 QB hurries — also a stout run defender, JPP finished as PFF’s No. 6 overall 4-3 defensive end. Giants owner John Mara said in December that he’d be very surprised if Pierre-Paul wasn’t with New York next season, but JPP has been adamant that he won’t accept a hometown discount to stay with the team that drafted him in the first round in 2010. PFR’s Rory Parks took a look at Pierre-Paul’s contract situation last month, and estimated a contract in the neighborhood of five years, $80MM for the pass-rusher.
6. Randall Cobb, WR: One of only two members of this list who plays for a team that remains in the postseason, Cobb was able to stay healthy for all of 2014, something he’s had trouble with in the past. As of mid-December, there was no movement on extension talks between Cobb and the Packers. Cobb, who caught 91 passes for 1,287 yards and 12 touchdowns this season, could seek to match the five-year, $35MM contract signed by Eric Decker last offseason. As Luke noted in the link above, however, Green Bay may want to ensure that Cobb doesn’t earn more than No. 1 receiver Jordy Nelson, who inked a four-year, $39MM extension during the summer. The youngest player on this list, Cobb won’t turn 25 until August.
7. Devin McCourty, S: With Harris off the board, McCourty is now the top defensive back available among free agents. Aside from Brandon Flowers (who will be 29 when next season begins) there aren’t many options at cornerback, so teams looking for secondary help will have to turn to McCourty, who stands alone in a FA safety class that contains middling players like Chris Conte and Rahim Moore. McCourty, 27, will hit free agency with his stock high — he rated as the league’s eighth-best safety per PFF after racking up 54 tackles and two interceptions for the Patriots this season. On December 14, Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald reported that there was “nothing happening” between McCourty and New England regarding an extension. I examined McCourty, a 2010 first-round pick, as an extension candidate in November, projecting that he could match Jairus Byrd‘s $9MM AAV.
8. Jeremy Maclin, WR: Maclin didn’t finish the season as strong as some of the others on this list — he averaged just five receptions for 56 yards during the Eagles’ final six games, and scored only once during that time. Maclin was adjusting to playing with a new quarterback in Mark Sanchez, however, who trailed off after a hot start and seemed to favor slot receiver Jordan Matthews at times. Nevertheless, Maclin enjoyed a strong comeback season in 2014, catching 85 balls for more than 1,300 yards while playing under a one-year, prove-it deal worth $6MM. Eagles head coach Chip Kelly said in December that it was a priority to retain Maclin, whom Luke projected could surpass Decker’s contract.
9. Jerry Hughes, EDGE: The most unheralded player on this list, Hughes has been a revelation with the Bills since being considered a bust after Indianapolis selected him in the first round of the 2010 draft. In 2014, he posted 10 sacks and graded as the 14th-best 4-3 defensive end in the league per PFF — he’d have placed much higher if not for his -9.1 penalty grade. He’d fit in either a 3-4 or a 4-3 look; in new Buffalo head coach Rex Ryan’s scheme, he’d work best as an OLB. In late December, Hughes indicated he would not be open to accepting a hometown discount to remain in Buffalo. It’s conceivable that he could garner $10MM annually on the open market.
10. Greg Hardy, DE: The most difficult player to slot on these rankings, Hardy played in just one game in 2014 before being placed on the commissioner’s exempt list after being charged in a domestic violence incident. The league is extremely sensitive to cases like Hardy’s, as it should be, and it’s beyond PFR’s purview to determine what the proper penalty for Hardy’s actions should be. But the fact remains that NFL teams pay for production, and Hardy is extremely productive. He posted consecutive double-digit sack seasons in 2012 and 2013, grading as a top-six 4-3 defensive end per PFF in both years. With his trial date set for February 9, Hardy should have some sort of resolution regarding his status shortly. If not for his off-the-field baggage, the 2010 sixth-rounder would easily be in the top half of this list, if not in the top three.
Dropped out: Chris Harris, CB (signed extension); Julius Thomas, TE; DeMarco Murray, RB
The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
Several NFL teams are currently hunting for a new head coach, and amidst reports about interview requests and potential candidates, it’s easy to lose track of the latest updates in the shuffle. So we’ll use this space – which will be updated until every team has hired a new head coach – to keep track of the most recent news and rumors. It can be found on the right-hand sidebar under “PFR Features.”
Listed below are the head coaching candidates that have been linked to each of the teams with current vacancies, along with their current status. Here’s the current breakdown:
Updated 2-3-15 (2:39am CT)
The NFL announced its Pro Bowl rosters on Tuesday night, a collection of 42 offensive players, 36 defenders, and eight special teams players. The list features the usual suspects such as Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers, as well as new faces like Le’Veon Bell, T.Y. Hilton, and Chris Harris, and can be viewed in full right here (PDF link).
Among the 86 players initially selected to appear in the game, several have signed new contracts in 2014, many more will be eligible for new deals in 2015, and others will receive a bump in pay based on their Pro Bowl nods. Here’s a breakdown of the Pro Bowl players with notable contract situations:
(via Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap)
Perhaps the most interesting – or at least unusual – takeaway from this data is the abundance of cornerbacks on the first list. In fact, all eight cornerbacks initially named as Pro Bowlers (Davis, Grimes, Haden, Harris, Peterson, Revis, Sherman, and Talib) have signed new contracts, either extensions or free agent deals, since March. Rival teams hoping to get their hands on a Pro Bowl corner this offseason will have to focus on Revis — he’s the only one of the eight who can reasonably be expected to become available within the next few months, due to the structure of his contract with the Pats.
Data from Over the Cap was used in the creation of this post.