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PFR Originals: 1/25/15 – 2/1/15

February 1st, 2015 at 2:45pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • Luke Adams looked the franchise tag candidates on each AFC team; check out the summaries of the East, North, South, and West.
  • PFR readers believe Cowboys receiver Dez Bryant is the top 2015 free agent — he received about 34% of the vote, while Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh garnered roughly 31%.
  • In another poll, PFR readers’ responses pointed to the extremely close matchup in today’s Super Bowl, as about 51% of voters picked the Seahawks to win their second consecutive title tonight. Thanks for voting!

2015 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates: AFC West

January 30th, 2015 at 4:32pm CST by Luke Adams

The deadline for assigning a franchise or transition tag on a 2015 free-agent-to-be is a little more than a month away, and we’re in the process of taking a look at players who are candidates to be tagged this year. We examined the AFC East on Tuesday, the AFC North on Wednesday, and the AFC South yesterday, before shifting our focus to the West today. Here’s a breakdown of the franchise and transition tag candidates for the Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders, and Chargers:

Denver Broncos:

  • Candidates: Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Terrance Knighton
  • Odds of being used: Likely
  • Even after signing cornerback Chris Harris to a lucrative contract extension earlier this season, the Broncos have a handful of impact players eligible for free agency. Demaryius Thomas is the most likely to be tagged, but if he and the Broncos can quickly reach a long-term agreement, there are other guys who shouldn’t be overlooked. Julius Thomas saw his stock dip a little when he missed time late in the season, but the tight end price tag is modest compared to most positions.

Kansas City Chiefs:

  • Candidates: Justin Houston, Rodney Hudson
  • Odds of being used: Likely
  • Like the Broncos, the Chiefs have a number of contributors eligible for free agency, including tackle Ryan Harris, linebacker Josh Mauga, and defensive back Ron Parker. Houston and Hudson are the two best candidates for a franchise tag though, and of those two, Houston represents the much likelier option. The only question would be whether the NFL’s sack leader would be considered a defensive end or a linebacker for salary purposes — in 2014, the defensive end franchise salary was nearly $2MM higher.

Oakland Raiders:

  • Candidates: Stefen Wisniewski
  • Odds of being used: Unlikely
  • The Raiders should do everything they can to lock up Wisniewski, but the franchise tag will be an absolute last resort. Offensive linemen are all grouped together for franchise purposes, so Oakland would have to commit to a left tackle salary for the center if he’s tagged. While the Browns used the transition tag on Alex Mack last year, Mack is arguably the league’s best center, and for the most part, the position just isn’t worth that kind of investment. I’d expect Wisniewski to land a deal in the neighborhood of $5-7MM per year.

San Diego Chargers:

  • Candidates: King Dunlap, Brandon Flowers
  • Odds of being used: Possible
  • There are bigger names headed to free agency in San Diego, including running back Ryan Mathews and veteran pass rusher Dwight Freeney, but Dunlap and Flowers are probably the two free-agents-to-be the Chargers should value most. Dunlap has emerged as an above-average left tackle in recent years, and given the holes elsewhere on the offensive line, his presence would benefit Philip Rivers going forward. As for Flowers, Pro Football Focus (subscription required) graded him as one of the league’s best cornerbacks before injuries slowed him down in the second half. A franchise tag salary would be an overpay for either player, but it’s an option San Diego should at least consider if extensions can’t be agreed upon.

2015 Franchise Tag Candidates: AFC South

January 29th, 2015 at 2:34pm CST by Luke Adams

The deadline for assigning a franchise or transition tag on a 2015 free-agent-to-be is less than five weeks away, and we’re in the process of taking a look at players who are candidates to be tagged this year. On Tuesday, we examined the AFC East, and yesterday, we turned our attention to the AFC North, where the Ravens and the Steelers look like the teams most likely to make use of a tag. Today, we’ll shift our focus south, breaking down the franchise and transition tag candidates for the Texans, Colts, Jaguars, and Titans….

Houston Texans:

  • Candidates: Kareem Jackson
  • Odds of being used: Unlikely
  • Jackson, who has been a starter at cornerback in Houston since being selected in the first round of the 2010 draft, is an underrated asset for the team. Still, a year ago, corners like Vontae Davis, Sam Shields, and Aqib Talib went untagged, so it’s hard to imagine the Texans franchising Jackson. Linebacker Brooks Reed and right tackle Derek Newton are among the other solid contributors Houston should look into re-signing, but like Jackson, neither player is worth an eight-digit salary for 2015.

Indianapolis Colts:

  • Candidates: None
  • Odds of being used: Zero
  • The Colts, like the Texans, have useful players eligible for unrestricted free agency — safety Mike Adams, defensive lineman Cory Redding, and longtime Indianapolis wideout Reggie Wayne will need to sign new contracts if they intend to continue their careers. But none of the team’s top impact players are free-agents-to-be, which is great news for a club with $30MM+ in projected cap room.

Jacksonville Jaguars:

  • Candidates: None
  • Odds of being used: Very unlikely
  • No team projects to have more cap space this offseason than the Jaguars, who could have upwards of $63MM in spending room. That’s one reason we shouldn’t rule out the possibility of a franchise tag — the team could easily afford it. However, for the tag to make sense, there needs to be a viable candidate, and it’s hard to find one on Jacksonville’s list of pending free agents. Linebacker Geno Hayes and defensive back Alan Ball are probably the Jags’ best UFA-eligible performers, but both players only appeared in about half the club’s defensive snaps, so it’s hard to make a case for them as franchise tag candidates. And it’s even harder to make a case for players like wideout Cecil Shorts and defensive end Tyson Alualu.

Tennessee Titans:

  • Candidates: Derrick Morgan, Brett Kern
  • Odds of being used: Possible, but unlikely
  • The Titans have a number of starters eligible for free agency, including Morgan, Kern, Michael Roos, and Ryan Succop. And like the Jaguars, they project to be among the top five teams this offseason in terms of cap space, giving them the flexibility to use the franchise tag if needed. Roos may be headed for retirement, and tagging either of the two special-teamers – punter Kern and kicker Succop – would likely be a last resort. That’s especially true of Succop, who had a down year in 2014. Morgan is the club’s strongest candidate. He has thrived in recent years as an edge rusher in 3-4 and 4-3 schemes, and despite modest sack totals, he recorded 49 total quarterback pressures last year and ranked among the league’s top 10 3-4 outside linebackers, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Those perennially average sack numbers, along with a perception that he hasn’t lived up to his first-round billing, should keep Morgan’s price down enough that the Titans won’t have to tag him, but he and Kern (a top-10 punter, per PFF) are the most viable options in Tennessee.

2015 Franchise Tag Candidates: AFC North

January 28th, 2015 at 8:57am CST by Luke Adams

The deadline for assigning a franchise or transition tag on a 2015 free-agent-to-be is less than five weeks away, and we’re in the process of taking a look at players who are candidates to be tagged this year. On Tuesday, we examined the AFC East, identifying the Patriots, with safety Devin McCourty and kicker Stephen Gostkowski eligible for free agency, as the most likely team to make use a tag. Today, we’ll shift our focus north, breaking down the franchise and transition tag candidates for the Ravens, Bengals, Browns, and Steelers….

Baltimore Ravens:

  • Candidates: Pernell McPhee, Torrey Smith
  • Odds of being used: Possible
  • McPhee and Smith are both solid contributors, with McPhee in particular providing plenty of value to the Ravens in 2014 — Pro Football Focus (subscription required) graded him as the league’s second-best 3-4 outside linebacker, behind sack leader Justin Houston. Still, McPhee was only a part-time player, appearing in just 540 defensive snaps, barely over half of what Houston played. For that reason, he may not be the most viable candidate for a tag, but he shouldn’t be ruled out. Smith, on the other hand, can probably be dismissed as an option — his production took a step backward in 2014 after the arrival of Steve Smith, and his 49 receptions and 767 yards were career lows. Kicker Justin Tucker would be a strong candidate if he were eligible for unrestricted free agency rather than restricted.

Cincinnati Bengals:

  • Candidates: None
  • Odds of being used: Zero
  • A few recognizable names, such as Jermaine Gresham and Mike Nugent, are scheduled to hit the open market for the Bengals, but none of the club’s prospective free agents are core players that absolutely must be retained.

Cleveland Browns:

  • Candidates: Brian Hoyer, Jordan Cameron
  • Odds of being used: Unlikely
  • At different points in 2014, the idea of using a tag on Hoyer or Cameron looked entirely reasonable, but both players’ stocks dropped toward the end of the season. If Hoyer is brought back, it would likely be to compete for a starting job, which isn’t worth a franchise salary that could exceed $18MM. The tight end tag will be worth less than half that, but after an injury-plagued and ineffective 2014 campaign, Cameron will almost certainly have to settle for a more modest deal.

Pittsburgh Steelers:

  • Candidates: Jason Worilds
  • Odds of being used: Possible
  • The Steelers used the transition tag on Worilds a year ago, and in his first season as a full-time starter in 2014, he was arguably just as good or better, so it’s absolutely within the realm of reason that the team would do it again. Still, tagging a player for a second time means that his salary will increase by at least 20% (in Worilds’ case, that means a raise to at least $11.705MM), and the Steelers have a handful of other contracts to address this offseason, including a potential extension for Ben Roethlisberger. I do expect Pittsburgh to make every effort to retain Worilds, but the club may push a little harder for a long-term deal this time around, which would increase cap flexibility and the ability to spend elsewhere this winter.

2015 Franchise Tag Candidates: AFC East

January 27th, 2015 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

One game remains on the NFL’s calendar for the 2014/15 season, but for teams besides the Seahawks and Patriots, the offseason has already begun. And one of the first tasks on most clubs’ offseason to-do list involve the franchise and transition tags. As our list of important offseason dates shows, teams can assign their franchise or transition tag to a player beginning on February 16, and will have until March 2 to make use of one of those tags.

Franchise and transition tags are tools that allow teams to keep free-agents-to-be off the open market. Our glossary entry on the subject goes into greater detail, but essentially, a player receiving either tag can’t sign freely with a rival suitor — the exclusive franchise tag prohibits the player from even negotiating with another team, while the non-exclusive franchise and transition tags ensure that the player must sign an offer sheet, which his previous club would have the opportunity to match.

Franchising a player means tendering him a one-year contract offer — he can accept and sign that offer, or attempt to work out a longer-term arrangement with his club. The salary for the one-year offer is determined using a formula that looks at the highest-paid players at each position, and is often exorbitant. Because it can be tricky to accommodate a franchise or transition salary within the cap restraints, not all teams will make use of the tags this offseason. Last year, for instance, only six clubs took advantage of the opportunity, with four teams using the franchise tag while two others used the transition tag.

Still, most teams around the NFL have one or two players that warrant at least passing consideration for one of the tags. Over the next couple weeks, we’ll take a look around the league, division by division, identifying which players on each of the NFL’s 32 teams might be candidates for the franchise tag in 2015. We’ll start today with the AFC East — let’s dive in….

Buffalo Bills:

  • Candidates: Jerry Hughes
  • Odds of being used: Unlikely
  • Running back C.J. Spiller and safety Da’Norris Searcy are among the free-agents-to-be that the Bills might look to re-sign this winter, but only Hughes is truly a viable candidate for the tag. The pass-rushing specialist has been excellent for Buffalo, recording consecutive seasons of double-digit sacks, but the price for his tag may be simply too high — even if he were considered an outside linebacker rather than a defensive end, Hughes would still likely cost at least $12MM for 2015. That may not be doable for the Bills, considering how much money the team has already invested into its other standout defensive linemen.

Miami Dolphins:

  • Candidates: Charles Clay, Jared Odrick
  • Odds of being used: Unlikely
  • Clay and Odrick are solid players, and the franchise prices for tight ends and defensive tackles aren’t bad relative to many other positions. Still, the Dolphins don’t have a ton of cap space to work with, and committing big money to either Clay or Odrick on a one-year deal isn’t a prudent use of that space. If Miami wants to retain them, both players can probably be locked up for lower per-year salaries.

New England Patriots:

  • Candidates: Devin McCourty, Stephen Gostkowski
  • Odds of being used: Possible
  • The price for a franchised safety is less than $10MM, which certainly isn’t outrageous for McCourty, who has developed into one of the more consistently productive players at his position. Gostkowski, meanwhile, has been one of the league’s most reliable kickers for the last several years, and would cost about $4MM to franchise. Bill Belichick and the Pats are notoriously willing to let players go when their cost outweighs their benefit, but McCourty and Gostkowski are still effective enough that the team will likely at least consider tagging one or the other.

New York Jets:

  • Candidates: David Harris
  • Odds of being used: Unlikely
  • The Jets will certainly have plenty of cap room to work with this offseason, but without an ideal franchise candidate, the team will likely choose to pass on the tag. An inside linebacker, Harris is coming off a deal that paid him $9MM annually, but he just turned 31 and the ILB position has seen its value decrease a little in recent years. Dawan Landry, a top-10 safety in 2014, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), makes for an intriguing under-the-radar candidate, but not a very realistic one.

PFR Originals: 1/18/15 – 1/25/15

January 25th, 2015 at 2:17pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Latest On Teams Still Seeking DCs

January 23rd, 2015 at 3:46pm CST by Luke Adams

This morning, we took a look at where the ongoing offensive coordinator searches stand, and this afternoon we’ll shift our focus to the remaining defensive coordinator vacancies.

While the OC openings are fairly clear cut, three potential defensive coordinator positions are still up in the air due to the Falcons’ head coaching search. No matter which head coach they hire, the Falcons will likely be in the market for a new defensive coordinator, and both of their finalists are current DCs for another team — if Atlanta hires Dan Quinn, as expected, the Seahawks will have to find a new coordinator. If their arrangement with Quinn falls through, the Falcons would likely turn to Lions defensive coordinator Teryl Austin, leaving Detroit to find a replacement.

In addition to those clubs, three more clubs are also currently hunting for a new defensive coordinator, so there are plenty of situations to examine. Let’s dive right in, with the help of our OC/DC search tracker….

Arizona Cardinals

After Todd Bowles landed in New York as the Jets’ new head coach, the early word out of Arizona was that the Cardinals would likely promote an internal candidate to replace Bowles, with James Bettcher, Brentson Buckner, Kevin Ross, Nick Rapone, and Tom Pratt as potential options. However, that report was published over a week ago, and there’s been no indication that the Cardinals are much closer to hiring Bowles’ replacement.

The team is reportedly interested in bringing aboard Dick LeBeau, but it appears it would be as a linebackers coach or perhaps as a senior defensive assistant. A report on Wednesday suggested that LeBeau was still interested in a coordinator position, so perhaps that’s why nothing has been finalized with the Cards yet. Arizona has also been linked to Mike Nolan, but it’s not entirely clear what Nolan’s situation is in Atlanta. Presumably, the new head coach will look to replace Nolan, but he remains under contract with the Falcons for now, having signed a two-year extension a year ago.

Atlanta Falcons

Speaking of those Falcons, there’s not much we know about their defensive coordinator job at this point. If Dan Quinn gets the head coaching job – and every indication is that he will – he could bring a coach from Seattle with him, particularly since most of the most attractive outside candidates will have found work by the time Quinn officially comes aboard (after the Super Bowl). It’s possible that Mike Nolan sticks around in Atlanta, but it seems unlikely at this point.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos targeted Bengals defensive backs coach Vance Joseph early in their search. Denver actually interviewed Joseph for its head coaching opening, though it’s not clear if he was ever a viable candidate for that spot — I expect that interview served the dual purpose of ensuring that the Broncos adhered to the Rooney Rule and allowing the team to get a feel for Joseph as a DC candidate. The only problem? While the Bengals were willing to let Joseph interview for a HC job, the club is now unwilling to let him out of his contract for a DC position.

Denver hasn’t given up on its No. 1 target — Mike Klis of the Denver Post, who wrote earlier this week that the Bengals and the NFL should do the right thing and allow Joseph to leave Cincinnati for a promotion, says the Broncos continue to monitor the situation. If the Bengals don’t budge though, the Broncos will have to move on to other options, and that could mean speaking to former head coach Wade Phillips, who has been mentioned as a candidate.

Oakland Raiders

Like the Broncos, the Raiders appear to have a clear preference for the coach they’d like to hire. Former Falcons head coach Mike Smith has been cited as Jack Del Rio‘s top candidate since Del Rio landed Oakland’s head coaching job, and the two sides have been in contact, but it seems Smith isn’t fully sold on the opportunity. If he was, the Raiders would likely have locked him up already.

With Smith no sure thing, the Raiders have former Bears defensive coordinator Mel Tucker on their radar and have also been linked to Wade Phillips. The club may ultimately turn to the NCAA ranks, as a Thursday report suggested, though no specific college candidates have been reported yet. Bill Williamson of ESPN.com wrote that if the Raiders do hire a coach from a college program, that would probably signal that the team was turned down by other candidates, and that Del Rio intends to call defensive plays, meaning that the new coordinator would have less latitude.

Seattle Seahawks

We’re including the Seahawks here rather than the Lions because it looks like a near-lock that Dan Quinn will head to Atlanta, with Teryl Austin returning to Detroit. Still, there’s no indication yet who would replace Quinn for the ‘Hawks. With so much talent on the defensive side of the ball in Seattle, the position could intrigue some big-name candidates who perhaps haven’t been interested in the other openings, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the club ultimately opts for an in-house promotion — of course, that’s assuming that Quinn doesn’t take the best internal candidates with him to Atlanta.

Latest On Teams Still Seeking OCs

January 23rd, 2015 at 8:42am CST by Luke Adams

There’s been plenty of turnover among the offensive coordinator ranks around the NFL already this offseason, with about a third of the league’s franchies hiring new OCs so far — 10 teams have hired replacements for their old coordinators, while the Cowboys are technically the 11th to install a new OC, having given Scott Linehan the official title that Bill Callahan previously held.

As our coordinator search tracker shows, even after those 11 teams have made changes, there are still three clubs with vacancies at the position, though it’s possible only two of those clubs will actually make a hire. Here’s the latest on the three teams still without an offensive coordinator:

San Francisco 49ers

The Niners have already added one notable name to their offensive staff, hiring ex-Raiders interim coach Tony Sparano as their tight ends coach, but are still in need of a coordinator to oversee the offense. The club pursued former Broncos OC Adam Gase before he landed with the Bears, which leaves three candidates who have been linked to the club since the hiring of head coach Jim Tomsula: Mike Shanahan, Lane Kiffin, and Rob Chudzinski.

Shanahan’s name came up about a week ago, but he hasn’t received much buzz since then, and it looks to me as if Kiffin and Chudzinski are the favorites for the position. In fact, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported over the weekend that Kiffin appeared to be the frontrunner. Since then, the Colts have rebuffed San Francisco’s attempt to speak to Chudzinski, which would seem to further solidify Kiffin as a top option, but we shouldn’t rule out the Colts assistant quite yet. Alex Marvez of Fox Sports reports (via Twitter) that Chudzinski’s contract with Indianapolis expires on Monday, at which point he’s expected to interview with the 49ers and Rams.

St. Louis Rams

As noted above, the Rams are expected to interview Colts assistant Rob Chudzinski when his contract with Indianapolis expires on Monday, and the fact that both San Francisco and St. Louis are willing to wait on Chudzinski suggests he’s a viable candidate for both clubs. Like the 49ers, the Rams had interest in Adam Gase and have been declined permission to speak to Chudzinski until now — St. Louis was also turned away when the team attempted to speak to Packers assistant Alex Van Pelt, and has seen a number of potential targets, including Greg Roman and Kyle Shanahan, land jobs with other clubs.

Still, the Rams did interview a candidate this week, in former Bills OC Nathaniel Hackett. Perhaps at this point Hackett is a top target by default, but a Thursday report indicated that the team may be comfortable promoting an in-house coach into the OC role. Tight ends coach Rob Boras and quarterbacks coach Frank Cignetti are viewed as strong candidates who are already on the staff, per Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, who adds that Boras would probably get the nod over Cignetti if the Rams stay in house.

Houston Texans

The Texans didn’t have an offensive coordinator on staff in 2014, with head coach Bill O’Brien serving as the de facto OC. Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com reported earlier in the week that Houston could add an OC to the staff for 2015, but there has been no news on that front since La Canfora addressed the topic. The CBSSports.com scribe noted that Doug Marrone would be a strong candidate for such a position, so the fact that Marrone ultimately accepted a non-OC job in Jacksonville suggests the Texans may not be hiring an OC after all. Nonetheless, it’s a situation worth monitoring.

Release Candidate: Tamba Hali

January 22nd, 2015 at 9:16pm CST by Dallas Robinson

After winning just 29 games in the six seasons prior to head coach Andy Reid’s arrival, the Chiefs have won 20 games in the past two seasons alone, earning a postseason berth in 2013. Reid’s first season in Kansas City was a massive success, as the club went from owning the No. 1 overall draft pick after posting a 2-14 record to finishing 11-5. Many correctly predicted 2014 would be a year of regression for the Chiefs, but the team didn’t fall off a cliff — it still managed to win nine games, and nearly made the playoffs for the second year in a row."<strongTamba Hali” width=”232″ height=”300″ />

Reid and general manager John Dorsey surely believe their club is a year-in, year-out contender, and with quarterback Alex Smith now signed through the 2018 season, the Chiefs have their most important piece locked up. Continuity is an important factor in building a championship-caliber team, something Dorsey acknowledges. “We’re not in the game to blow things up,” Dorsey told Terez A. Paylor of the Kansas City Star earlier this month. “I don’t think you can do that, but these guys understand that, in order to achieve a high level of success, you’re going to be in this thing together.”

Still, fiscal decisions will have to be made in the coming months — assuming a $140MM cap for 2014, Over the Cap’s data shows the Chiefs to be more than $2MM in the red. Small restructures can be finagled to move money around, ensuring that the team can sign its draft class and make modest free agent additions. But unless Kansas City does something drastic, it won’t be able to do much to upgrade this offseason. That’s why the notion of cutting longtime pass-rusher Tamba Hali isn’t so crazy.

The Chiefs selected Hali, now 31, in the first round of the 2006 draft. The Penn State alum entered the league as a 4-3 defensive end in former Kansas City coach Herm Edwards’ scheme and struggled to find success, accruing -11.5 and +0.1 grades in ’06 and ’07, respectively, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Todd Haley took over as KC’s head coach in 2008, and the team installed a 3-4 look, the scheme they’ve employed ever since. After moving to outside linebacker, Hali has excelled, registering a positive PFF grade every season (including 2010, when he was ranked as the league’s top 3-4 OLB); since the position switch in ’08, he ranks eighth in the league with 64 sacks.

Hali’s play has declined with age, to be sure — he posted just six sacks last season, and while his +11.2 PFF grade still ranked him among the top-15 3-4 OLBs, his production clearly isn’t where it was a few years ago. Even more pressing is Hali’s salary as he enters the final year of his contact. He’s set to earn a base salary of $6.75MM, and is due a $2MM roster bonus and a $250K workout bonus — combined with his signing bonus proration, Hali will count roughly $11.965MM against the cap in 2015, the third-highest figure at his position in the league. That roster bonus is due on March 19, so the Chiefs have just under two months to make a decision on Hali.

As I noted, Kansas City is projected to be roughly $2MM over the cap in 2015 — however, that number doesn’t account for pass-rusher Justin Houston, a free-agent-to-be who seems destined for the franchise tag (at a value of around $13MM). Additionally, the club is not without needs, as upgrades could be used at positions like receiver, offensive line, and the secondary. By releasing Hali, the Chiefs would save $9MM in cap space (they’d only be on the hook for his a portion of his signing bonus, roughly $2.965MM), enabling them to pursue improvements in other areas.

Of course, Hali isn’t the only Chief who could be cut in order to save the club money. Receiver Dwayne Bowe was ineffective in 2013, is set to have the second-highest cap number on the team next year; Kansas City would save $5MM by releasing him. Fellow WR Donnie Avery will be almost certainly be cut, a move that would save KC more than $3.5MM. Releasing Mike DeVito ($4MM), Joe Mays ($3MM), and A.J. Jenkins (~$1.34MM) could also clear out cap space for the Chiefs, so there are definitely other options to create financial breathing room. But if Kansas City is aiming to either franchise tag or re-sign Houston and make additions in other areas, it might not make sense to allow an aging (albeit still effective) pass-rusher like Hali to take up more than eight percent of its cap.

For his part, Hali seems amenable to taking a pay cut, or at least he’s paying lip service to that effect (via Paylor):

“At this stage of my career, it isn’t about money. The Kansas City Chiefs have taken care of me, financially. I have some good people in my corner that have positioned me to be able to live a lifestyle a lot of people won’t be able to live. So I’m not one of those guys who gets all bent out of shape over money. I love playing the game, I want to win a championship in Kansas City. If money is going to be a hindrance in doing that, we’ll find a way … we’ve got to get Justin (Houston) paid and get our guys, Dee Ford, ready to be playing at a higher level … but we’ve got to get Houston paid, I’m optimistic about that … that’s something we’ve got to get done.”

If Hali is released (if pressed, I’d say he’s about 75% likely to be cut, though a pay reduction scenario would render that estimation moot), he’d likely find a strong market for his services. Pass-rushers are always rewarded in free agency, and luckily for Hali, there are a number of teams who run a 3-4 front who will have ample cap space to use in the coming months. The Colts present the most intriguing scenario in my mind — the team will be three seasons into playing a 3-4 look, are open to spending in free agency, need pass-rush help, and will have more than $37MM of cap space to use. The Titans, with more than $40MM in space, and the Raiders (if they continue to mix in 3-4 looks) could also be interested in signing Hali, as could the Falcons (again, pending scheme changes) and the Eagles in the NFC.

At 31, Hali probably wouldn’t garner a deal in excess of four years or so, but as cap expert Joel Corry notes in the Paylor article linked above, he’d probably come out ahead by entering the market. He wouldn’t face much in the way of positional competition — with Houston likely to be franchised, the other top 3-4 OLBs include Jason Worilds, Brandon Graham, and Brian Orakpo. Hali would probably be looking at a deal in the neighborhood of DeMarcus Ware (three years, $10MM AAV, $16.5MM guaranteed) or Julius Peppers (three years, $8.67MM AAV, $7.5MM guaranteed). He’s younger than both of those comparables, so it’s conceivable he could get a four-year contract, but his AAV would probably sit in that $8.5MM range, with perhaps 40% of his total guaranteed.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.

PFR Originals: 1/11/15 – 1/18/15

January 18th, 2015 at 3:24pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

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