Michael Penix Jr.

Giants Could Wait For QB In Draft

April 22nd, 2024 at 3:02pm CST by Ely Allen

APRIL 22: Adding to the idea New York could pass on a first-round signal-caller, Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post notes the Giants could be prepared to move down if J.J. McCarthy were the top passer still on the board at No. 6. That could result in a trade-down maneuver and leave the team in range for one of the second-tier QBs. Dunleavy adds that a factor which could alter that approach is the possibility of acquiring Maye, which falls in line with the Meirov report.

APRIL 21: Ever since Daniel Jones tore his ACL last season, putting to rest any chances of rebounding from an abysmal start to lead his team to the playoffs for the second year in a row, there has been constant chatter in New York about committing a first-round draft pick to the quarterback position. According to Ari Meirov of the 33rd Team, the Giants may not be all-in on using their current top pick, No. 6 overall, to draft a passer.

The Giants rewarded Jones’ playoff season, in which he led the league in fewest interceptions per pass attempt, with a four-year, $160MM contract. His first year under the new deal obviously did not go according to plan, but New York has claimed on multiple occasions that it does not regret committing to Jones and isn’t quite ready to give up on him. Still, they let it be known that they had plans to add a quarterback in the future; Jones’ injury history necessitated it.

Now, they actually have to address how that will work. Most projections for how the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft will play out see a run of four quarterbacks opening the night. While that’s not guaranteed, if it occurs, the Giants would likely not see any of the quarterbacks they want fall back to them. That hasn’t stopped many mock drafts from predicting a quarterback to New York via a trade up into the Cardinals’ No. 4 overall slot.

Meirov tells us that league rumors state that North Carolina passer Drake Maye is the only one of the passers not named “Caleb Williams” that the Giants would consider going after if he started to slip. It’s expecting quite a bit to think that Maye could find his way down to the sixth pick, but this could be insinuating that New York would trade up to the fourth pick if the Commanders and Patriots both pass on Maye.

If not, though, Meirov believes that they could address another position, like offensive tackle or wide receiver, at No. 6 overall then wait until the second round to select a quarterback. It depends how things play out, but both Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon’s Bo Nix were thought of as Day 2 picks at some point. The run of passers at the top of the draft may mean that Penix and Nix hear their names a little earlier than their value (for instance, the Raiders have constantly been connected to Penix at No. 13 overall), but should either quarterback slip back into the second round, consider them top targets for the Giants.

If they particularly like Penix or Nix and see them starting to slip in the first round, they may decide to trade back into the first round, or they could leverage their No. 6 overall pick to trade back and collect more picks without addressing the offensive line or receiving corps then pick one of the two passers. If they miss out on both Penix and Nix they may have to reach (or trade back a little in the second round) for South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler, widely thought to have a third-round value or later.

Regardless, the Giants have lots of options. They remain committed to Jones but still feel the need to add a rookie to the room. Just how they decide to go about adding that rookie could say a lot about how they feel about Jones heading into 2024.

QB Draft Rumors: Penix, Maye, Rattler

April 19th, 2024 at 7:25pm CST by Ely Allen

The most common predictions we’ve been seeing for the 2024 NFL Draft are that the day will start with a run of four quarterback selections and that those four quarterbacks will be USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye, LSU’s Jayden Daniels, and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy. The passer projected to be selected after those four, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr., has continuously been linked to the Raiders, and as we approach the big day, that heat continues to produce smoke.

According to Matt Miller of ESPN, Penix to Las Vegas is a rumor he has been constantly hearing from sources he trusts. The Raiders were linked early in the process with Daniels, as the LSU-transfer is familiar with new head coach Antonio Pierce from the two’s time together at Arizona State. In order to draft him, though, the Raiders would need to trade up from No. 13 overall to select Daniels before one or more of the teams with picks two through four has a chance to. Despite doing their due diligence on the situation, it doesn’t appear that the Raiders have the assets to make such a move.

Instead, they have seemingly zeroed in on Penix. Some have classified this as a surprise, since many don’t have a first-round draft grade on the left-handed passer. To be frank, though, many teams don’t seem to have a first-round draft grade on the controversial McCarthy, either. With the projected run of quarterbacks to open the night, though, it’s widely expected that passers initially projected as second- and third-round quarterbacks like McCarthy, Penix, and Oregon’s Bo Nix could easily hear their names on the first day of the draft. As we get closer and closer to that day, it continues to seem likely that, some way or another, Penix will be a Raider in 2024.

Here are a couple other rumors concerning the draft’s quarterbacks:

Speaking of passers who some don’t consider a first-rounder, Jason La Canfora of The Washington Post shared the thoughts of a league general manager who called Maye “the biggest wild card in” the draft. According to that executive, “Some guys love him and think he could end up the best QB in this class, and some legitimately think he’s a mid-round pick.”
Part of the reason for the apparent dichotomy around Maye’s draft stock is due to the drop in production from the former Tar Heel’s sophomore year to his most recent junior season. Maye had a lower completion percentage while passing for 713 fewer yards, 14 fewer touchdowns, and two more interceptions in two fewer games this year. Some attribute that to the loss of weapons to the NFL and injury, but Tom Pelissero of NFL Network points to a different reason. Reportedly, Maye was dealing with a couple injuries throughout the year including an ankle injury and an AC sprain in his left shoulder. He didn’t use it as an excuse, but the limitations showed up on film in the form of inaccuracy and poor pocket awareness.
One name who doesn’t get mentioned as a top-six quarterback with first-round possibilities but also doesn’t get classified as a late-round flyer is South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler. According to Pelissero, there are some coaches who ranked Rattler ahead of Penix. This doesn’t change the fact that Penix is an expected first-round pick with Rattler is likely to hear his name on the second or third day of the draft, but chalk it up to the growing controversy surrounding this year’s QB class. McCarthy and Penix only became first-round considerations well after facing each other in the college season’s finale. Maye and Daniels have been back and forth as the top selection following Williams, and apparently Maye isn’t even considered a guarantee there by some executives. And now, we hear of Rattler, being ranked on some boards higher than the passer projected to go 13th overall. Truly anything seems possible with the coming draft’s QB class.

QB Prospect Notes: Williams, Patriots, Commanders, Giants

April 16th, 2024 at 8:48pm CST by Ben Levine

Caleb Williams is still expected to hear his name called first during next week’s draft, but the USC quarterback didn’t make the best impression on teams during the pre-draft process. According to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, Williams’ interviews with teams were described as “good, not great” and “just OK.”

As Fowler notes, Williams declined medical exams and only did a handful of interviews, where he didn’t show the same poise and preparation as his fellow QB prospects. Naturally, some teams assumed this was a “byproduct of being a player who knows he’s going No. 1.” While Williams’ pre-draft strategy wasn’t considered a personality red flag by scouts, one AFC executive believes Williams left the door open for the Bears to pivot.

“I don’t think he’s had a great spring,” the executive told Fowler. “He’s still going first. That’s pretty much a done deal. But while he was a no-brainer three months ago, there’s at least a conversation now. Even still, I think he’s a smart kid, a good kid. He just knows where he’s going.”

Perhaps partly due to Williams’ offseason showing, there are some coaches who have actually graded LSU’s Jayden Daniels over the USC QB, per Adam Caplan of ProFootballNetwork.com. Of course, the only opinion that matters belongs to the Bears, but this recent grading adjustment at least leads Caplan to surmise that Daniels will be selected ahead of North Carolina’s Drake Maye.

While Maye is an underdog to be selected in the top-two, it’s no longer a guarantee that he’s even chosen with the third-overall pick. As Albert Breer of SI.com notes, there’s a “healthy debate” in New England between Maye and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy. While there’s still a chance the Patriots trade out of the No. 3 spot in pursuit of future picks, Breer believes owner Robert Kraft “views this as a rare chance to get a quarterback at this level.” The organization has certainly made it clear they’re eyeing all of the top-tier prospects, as the Patriots have met with Daniels, Maye, and McCarthy.

Washington is currently sitting with the second-overall pick, and they’ve been equally active in scouting QB prospects. Interestingly, the team will be hosting all of Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, and Washington’s Michael Penix for their top-30 visits at the same time, per Breer. This stems from GM Adam Peters‘ experience from San Francisco, where the 49ers would bring in groupings of prospects to see how they interact with peers.

With the Cardinals and Chargers likely out of the running for a top QB prospect, the Giants are next in line at the position behind Chicago, Washington, and New England. There’s been recent buzz that the Giants could look to move up (per Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post) or even move back (per Fowler, via WBG84), but either way, it’s pretty clear the organization is targeting a signal-caller.

Dan Duggan of The Athletic believes the Giants are high enough on Maye that they’d swing a trade up the draft board. The writer also believes the organization isn’t enamored with McCarthy, perhaps necessitating a trade back if the Michigan QB is there at No. 6. If the Giants do end up trading back, Duggan could see a scenario where the team is actively pursuing Penix or Oregon’s Bo Nix in the back half of the first round.

Raiders Interested In QB Michael Penix Jr.?

April 15th, 2024 at 10:02pm CST by Sam Robinson

Raiders hopes of forging a path that ends with Jayden Daniels is increasingly unlikely, despite the run of rumors indicating how much the team wants to pair Antonio Pierce with the former Arizona State recruit. A consolation prize is now being brought up.

The Raiders would have “loved” to find a way to trade up for Daniels, ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter offers, before adding that route will be “impossible” to complete. Las Vegas holds the No. 13 overall pick, while the 2023 Heisman winner may be the frontrunner to go off the board at 2.

With the Commanders presumably interested in adding Daniels to their roster, the Raiders — who sit behind the QB-needy Vikings (No. 11) and Broncos (No. 12) — would stand to be effectively stonewalled on this front. As our Ely Allen noted recently, the Raiders probably lack the capital to make a move that big. A recent report indicated the team may not be in lockstep on trading up at all, with Pierce perhaps higher on climbing to land a QB than GM Tom Telesco.

While this rumored disagreement would create an interesting conflict ahead of the duo’s first draft together, the Raiders do have Gardner Minshew on a two-year, $25MM deal. The recent Colts fill-in starter could mentor a young QB in need of seasoning. With a route to the top four set to be difficult to make happen, the Michael Penix Jr.–Bo Nix tier would be worth looking into.

On that note, Schefter adds some chatter in the QB community has pointed to the Raiders eyeing Penix. Raiders-Penix whispers are growing louder, Vic Tafur of The Athletic adds (subscription required). Though, Tafur does not mock Penix to Las Vegas. The impressive deep-ball thrower has generated more interest among coaches than scouts, with the latter contingent iffy on his overall package — due to his past injuries and some accuracy issues beyond the deep ball. Some coaches have ex-Washington southpaw rated higher than some of the top-tier arms in this draft class.

Certainly fans of the long game for much of their history, the Raiders once upon a time would have been a natural team to tie to Penix. The recent CFP national championship game starter finished his sixth and final college season with a Division I-FBS-most 4,903 passing yards (8.8 per attempt) and 36 TD passes, forming a lethal combination with likely top-10 wideout pick Rome Odunze. This included a 430-yard outing to move Washington past Texas in the CFP semifinals. A transfer from Indiana, Penix averaged more passing yards per game in his first year at Washington (2022).

The Raiders hosted Penix on a “30” visit, being among the eight teams to have scheduled a meeting with the first-round-caliber prospect. Some might view grabbing Penix at 13 a reach, but the draft regularly bumps up QBs due to their towering positional value. Nix has also trekked to Las Vegas for a meeting.

This draft will be quite interesting for the futures of two AFC West franchises, with the Broncos appearing in worse QB shape than their rivals. The Penix-Nix prospect tier will be one to monitor closely in connection with both teams, as the Vikings — who acquired the No. 23 overall pick from the Texans last month — have more ammo to trade up by comparison.

Patriots To Host QB Michael Penix Jr.

April 15th, 2024 at 5:11pm CST by Sam Robinson

Doing extensive homework on this draft’s quarterback class, the Patriots will squeeze in another meeting with a prospect before Wednesday’s deadline to conduct “30” visits.

Michael Penix Jr. is heading to Foxborough for a meeting, NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport tweets. The Washington quarterback will meet with team brass tonight and go through a traditional visit Tuesday. Penix has logged a busy visit schedule leading up to the draft, and the team holding the No. 3 overall selection — and one also linked to potentially trading down — is up next on his docket.

Looming as a player who could make his way toward the middle of the first round (depending on trades made and which QBs go where early), Penix could be of interest to the Pats if they trade down from No. 3 overall. A late-March report indicated the Patriots could be in play to move down and still acquire a quarterback. That risky path — not seen as the most likely play for the QB-needy team — could certainly involve Penix, who is not projected to be one of the QBs who go off the board in the top five.

The Pats scheduled meetings with Penix, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy. New England’s rearranged staff also brought the most representation at the Maye and Daniels pro days. If the Pats stick at No. 3, one of those two passers will almost definitely be available. Unless McCarthy’s rise includes a surprising surge to No. 2 overall and a ticket to Washington, which as of now may be most likely to draft Daniels, the Michigan arm would be available to Pats at 3. Interest in Penix would only further complicate this Patriots situation.

Daniel Jeremiah’s NFL.com big board ranks Penix as this draft class’ 33rd-best prospect; Mel Kiper Jr.’s ESPN.com offering has the southpaw QB outside his overall top 25. But coaches are believed to view the ex-Indiana recruit higher than scouts. Leadership traits and tremendous success throwing deep have drawn coaches to Penix, and some coaches have him listed ahead of some of “the presumed top guys.” That said, Kiper does not have Penix going off the board until the second round (No. 37, to the Rams via trade-up). Penix and Bo Nix reside as wild cards in a draft that may well feature QBs (most likely Caleb Williams and then Daniels, Maye and McCarthy in some order) going from Nos. 1-4 for the first time in history.

Penix, whose Commanders meeting is set for Tuesday night and Wednesday (per Bleacher Report’s Jordan Schultz, will close the pre-draft visit cycle having met with eight teams. In addition to the Patriots and Commanders, the injury-prone (but largely medically cleared) QB went through meetings with the Broncos, Falcons, Steelers, Giants, Raiders and Vikings. The Seahawks, who now employ recent Washington OC Ryan Grubb as their play-caller, also came up on the Penix radar.

Despite two ACLs and significant shoulder trouble in his past, Penix powered the Huskies to the CFP national championship game. He spent six years in college, which is no longer uncommon thanks to the COVID-19 period extending college careers. Like Nix, Penix broke through in the Pac-12. Last season, the 6-foot-2 lefty totaled 4,903 passing yards and 36 TDs. Never showing too much as a rusher (one 100-plus-yard college season on the ground), Penix still looms as a potential option for one of the QB-needy teams that does not land one of the top-tier arms. The Pats would certainly throw a wrench into the draft process by making a move that ends with Penix in New England.

Latest On Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.’s Draft Stock

April 9th, 2024 at 10:20pm CST by Ben Levine

Throughout the pre-draft process, there’s been a general consensus that the top tier of quarterback prospects consists of USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye, and LSU’s Jayden Daniels. While Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy has recently climbed up the draft boards, it sounds like a fifth signal caller has drawn increased attention of NFL evaluators.

Albert Breer of TheMMQB recently passed along that some NFL coaches have Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. listed above some of “the presumed top guys.” In fact, one anonymous NFL offensive coach declared Penix as his “No. 2 guy” at the position.

“I love Penix,” the coach told Breer. “He’s a stud, a born leader, calm and collected and in a genuine way. He’s a baller. He turns it loose, can throw it into tight windows. He stands in the pocket, lets plays develop, takes hits, throws it down the field. He’s just a winner.”

As Breer details, there are a handful of reasons why Penix has started to climb up the draft boards. Primarily, Penix’s rise could be attributed to coaches being inserted into the draft conversation. Scouts weren’t as high on the Washington prospect, criticizing the player’s “sometimes-scattershot accuracy underneath.” Coaches, however, have been more focused on Penix’s skills, including deep-ball accuracy that Breer describes as “off the charts.”

Penix also helped his draft stock with a strong pro day. His 4.5-second 40-yard dash time certainly warranted attention, with the unexpected speed being a nice revelation besides Penix’s lauded arm strength. In meetings with teams, the QB has come off “as humble, confident, and introspective,” per Breer, only improving coaches’ confidence in the prospect.

The quarterback’s health updates have also helped. Despite suffering four season-ending injuries during his time in college, Penix’s “medical evaluations did get a thumbs up,” per Bruce Feldman of The Athletic. Teams will surely still be wary of Penix and his health, but they now might be a bit more comfortable with improving his spot on the draft board.

Latest On Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.

April 5th, 2024 at 10:05pm CST by Ely Allen

The runup to the 2024 NFL Draft has been a rollercoaster for Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. Initially viewed in the second tier of top draft-eligible passers alongside Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, Penix has dipped in and out of the first round in mock drafts over the past several weeks, while McCarthy has skyrocketed into the top tier. Now, at this point in time, OutKick’s Armando Salguero tells us that at least three teams have Penix on their board with a first-round value.

Initially, there were concerns about Penix’s history with injury issues, as detailed in his recent Prospect Profile. His four season-ending injuries in as many years at Indiana had many uneasy about his health at the next level. After getting cleared in medical evaluations, Penix will be able to get most teams to look past his injury-history, though some may still hold on to their reservations.

As for which three teams have him slotted as a first-rounder, it’s difficult to say for sure. Penix has scheduled several different “top 30” visits over the last week. He’s set to meet with the Giants, Falcons, Raiders, Broncos, Steelers, Vikings, and Commanders, while the Seahawks have been mentioned as a team of interest, as well. The Commanders can probably be taken out of the mix. Even if they have a first-round grade on Penix, they are seemingly set to draft one of the top-tier passers at No. 2 overall.

The Falcons are an interesting team to watch after they sent “a sizable group to Seattle to conduct a private workout with” Penix today, per Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated. It’s hard to see them as one of the teams with a first-round grade on the 23-year-old, though, as they just signed Kirk Cousins to a big contract to start for them at quarterback.

Instead look to teams like the Raiders, who have been mocked to draft Penix on multiple occasions. Despite the team’s aggressive efforts to move into the top three draft picks, Las Vegas doesn’t seem to have the capital to make it happen. Those efforts show their desire to draft a quarterback, though, and if they’re stuck at 13th overall, they may have to settle for Penix.

With most mock drafts predicting a run of four passers in the first four picks, it only takes one or two more teams in the remaining 28 picks to pull the trigger on Penix or Oregon quarterback Bo Nix. With plenty of teams needing help at the position, Penix could join the ranks as one of up to five or six first-round quarterbacks.

Vikings, Commanders Schedule Michael Penix Meetings; Seahawks In Play For QB?

April 3rd, 2024 at 2:15pm CST by Sam Robinson

Not mentioned among the quarterbacks projected to land in the top five, Michael Penix Jr. still profiles as a player who could certainly go off the draft board in Round 1. A number of teams are doing their homework on the recent national championship game starter.

Penix scheduled visits with the Giants, Falcons, Broncos, Raiders and Steelers recently. The Vikings and Commanders can now be added to the Washington alum’s list. Penix worked out for the Vikings recently, according to Bleacher Report’s Jordan Schultz, who adds the Commanders will also host the southpaw QB on a “30” visit. Penix has begun his run of “30” meetings, stopping through Denver on Tuesday and Las Vegas today.

The Commanders should not be expected to entertain taking Penix at No. 2 overall, but Dan Quinn did not commit to the team staying in that slot. The new Washington HC only said the Commanders are likely to leave the draft with a quarterback. Still, it would be fairly surprising to see a team that just hired a new GM and HC — and one with an owner who took over less than a year ago — pass on adding an impact QB prospect without needing to trade up.

The Vikings acquiring the Texans’ No. 27 overall pick has brought consistent rumors about the team trading up. Penix, however, could be available with Minnesota’s first pick (No. 11 overall). The Vikings have never chosen a quarterback in the top 10, but since acquiring that second first-rounder, they have been consistently predicted to break that streak. It would not seem Penix would require such a move, but Minnesota is doing due diligence on a passer with an extensive injury history and a strong finish to his college career.

Transferring from Indiana, Penix dominated at Washington and piloted the Huskies to the CFP title game. Working with top-flight WR Rome Odunze, Penix posted back-to-back 4,600-yard passing seasons. Last year, he closed with 36 TD passes and averaged 8.8 yards per attempt. Two torn ACLs and two shoulder injuries have brought understandable concerns, despite Penix’s strong finish. One GM mentioned to the Washington Post’s Jason La Canfora it cleared Penix medically.

While the Penix-Odunze connection proved to be one of the college game’s most dangerous in many years, the QB’s past with Ryan Grubb should also warrant close inspection. The Seahawks, who hired the former Washington OC to call plays, are again being linked to Grubb’s former pupil. Some around the league believe the NFC West team, with Penix having played in Seattle and under Grubb, could in play to land the ex-Pac-12 star at No. 16, La Canfora adds.

Closely tied to Anthony Richardson last year, the Seahawks saw the Colts select the Florida talent one spot before them. Pete Carroll said the Seahawks would have considered drafting Richardson, whom they met with last year, at No. 5. They instead kept Geno Smith as the unquestioned QB1. Thus far in Mike Macdonald‘s first weeks on the job, Smith remains unchallenged for the gig. The 33-year-old QB saw a $12.7MM chunk of his 2024 base salary shift from an injury guarantee to a full guarantee in February, and Macdonald recently named the veteran his starter. But Smith’s three-year, $75MM deal is fairly Seahawks-friendly; the team could escape it easily in 2025. The Grubb-Penix connection should certainly be monitored ahead of the draft. Smith will turn 34 in October.

With J.J. McCarthy looking likely to be drafted closer to the Caleb Williams–Jayden Daniels–Drake Maye tier, Penix joins Bo Nix as the passers who could become mid- or late-first-round selections. Both Pac-12 transfers will require significant pre-draft examination, but one team will roll the dice on the Washington product with plans to become a future starter.

QB Michael Penix Jr. Schedules Five Visits

March 29th, 2024 at 6:09pm CST by Adam La Rose

With pre-draft visits in full swing, Michael Penix Jr. is one of several quarterbacks set to take a number of ‘top 30’ visits with interested teams. Details on his immediate future have emerged in the wake of his Pro Day.

Penix is set to meet with the Giants, Falcons, Raiders, Broncos and Steelers, per ESPN’s Brady Henderson. New York, Las Vegas and Denver have been among the teams most closely connected with selecting a passer during next month’s draft. The inclusion of Atlanta and Pittsburgh on that list is certainly noteworthy, however.

The Falcons made perhaps the most impactful move of free agency by signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180MM deal. That move sets the team up with a proven quarterback relative to its other post-Matt Ryan options (albeit one which is aging and coming off an Achilles tear). A long-term investment in a developmental passer would be reasonable, but such a move would likely come after the Falcons’ top pick.

Atlanta is set to select eighth overall, and edge rush remains a notable roster hole at the moment. For that reason, many mocks have linked the team to Alabama’s Dallas Turner, largely regarded as the top member of the 2024 pass rush class. The Falcons’ next selection is No. 43; Penix could very well be off the board by that point, leaving them in search of another Day 2 or 3 QB option.

The Steelers have completely re-built their quarterback room, signing Russell Wilson and trading for Justin Fields. The former is set to operate as the starter for 2024, but the latter profiles as the passer with a higher upside over the long term given his age. Both Wilson and Fields are only on the books for one season (provided Fields’ fifth-year option is declined this spring), though the team is believed to have interest in retaining each of them beyond 2024.

Pittsburgh owns the No. 20 pick, which could fall within the early portion of Penix’s range (depending in large part, of course, on where the QBs rated above him are selected). Adding the 2023 Heisman runner-up would give the Steelers an intriguing third option on the depth chart but it would likely prove to be redundant in at least the short term with Wilson and Fields in the fold.

Penix profiles as a wild card in the 2024 quarterback class, having enjoyed a successful stint with Washington which was punctuated by a trip to the national title game. Concerns over his age and lengthy injury history – including two ACL tears – will hurt his draft stock compared to the passers slated to be selected in the top five, but the strong athletic performance he delivered at his Pro Day could certainly help in that regard. Ultimately, Penix’s visits will be a strong determining factor in his eventual landing spots, and several teams will remain worth monitoring as potential destinations.

Prospect Profile: Michael Penix Jr.

March 23rd, 2024 at 9:18pm CST by Ely Allen

At this point, it’s starting to become extremely clear who we should be expecting to see as the first player and quarterback taken in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft next month. We also know UNC quarterback Drake Maye is fighting off LSU Heisman winner Jayden Daniels as QB2 of the draft and that Michigan national champion J.J. McCarthy and Oregon’s Bo Nix are enjoying their own late surges towards the first round. One other quarterback seems to polarize more than the rest, as Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. continues to work to prove himself as a top football player.

As a three-star recruit out of Tampa Bay Tech HS (Florida), Penix struggled to stand out in the talent-laden state of Florida. He quickly picked up local offers from Group of 5 schools like USF and FAU before attending a camp at Tennessee and earning his first Power 5 offer. 10 months later, after receiving only a few other offers, Penix committed to the Volunteers. After the school’s firing of Butch Jones, the head coach to whom he had committed, Penix decommitted, taking the week before an early National Signing Day to consider his options before ultimately signing to attend Indiana.

Penix would redshirt his freshman year with the Hoosiers, appearing in only three games before tearing his ACL. After returning from his injury, Penix entered his redshirt freshman year as the starter, winning the job over incumbent quarterback Peyton Ramsey. In six starts, Penix led the Hoosiers to a 5-1 start to the season while completing 68.8 percent of his pass attempts for 1,394 yards and 10 touchdowns with four interceptions. He also added 119 yards on the ground for two touchdowns. Unfortunately, Penix’s season ended there after a sternoclavicular joint sprain and clavicle fracture on his non-throwing, right shoulder would keep him out for the remainder of the season.

Penix would return in 2020 as the starter once again and once again lead the team to a 5-1 start. His completion percentage suffered as the team leaned more heavily on his arm, but he would increase his production to 1,645 passing yards and 14 touchdowns before suffering a second torn ACL to end his third season. In his final year as the Indiana starter, Penix looked like a shell of his former self. The Hoosiers started the season 2-3 as Penix threw for 939 yards, four touchdowns, and seven interceptions in five starts while only completing 53.7 percent of his passes. His time in Bloomington ended, once again, with his fourth season-ending injury, this one a dislocated joint in his throwing shoulder.

Instead of laying down to watch his football career die, Penix opted to hop into the transfer portal. Thanks to his utilized redshirt and the extra year of eligibility granted to players in school during the 2020 COVID-19 impacted season, the lefty passer still had two years of eligibility left, and finally, in Seattle, Penix was offered the opportunity to play for a contender. Penix became the starter at Washington and immediately led the Huskies to a winning season following their 4-8 2021 campaign.

At Washington, Penix rediscovered his accuracy, completing just over 65 percent of his passes in both years with the team. During the team’s 2022 campaign, Penix led the country in passing yards per game en route to becoming the school’s all-time single-season passing leader with 4,641 yards while scoring 31 touchdowns through the air and four more on the ground. He followed that up with a 14-1 season that would take Washington to the National Championship game, ultimately falling to McCarthy’s Wolverines. Still, in 2023, Penix broke his own single-season record with 4,903 passing yards (thanks to two extra games) and passed for 36 touchdowns while rushing for three more. He led the FBS in passing yards, but even with his extra games, he also led the country in passing yards per game for the second season in a row.

Now, finally out of eligibility, Penix is ready to head to the NFL following a successful college career. He brings an aggressive approach to the passing game with an ability to deliver quick strikes and throw competitive balls downfield for his receivers to win. He doesn’t lack confidence, showing a willingness to make every throw at every level of the field but could still stand to improve in some of those areas, namely intermediate passes across the middle of the field. This can lead to a few missed passes and, while he did post impressive completion percentages, ranking 28th in the country at 65.4 in 2023, his fellow draft candidates, USC’s Caleb Williams (12th at 68.6), Daniels (seventh at 72.2), McCarthy (sixth at 72.3), and Nix (first at 77.4), all showed better accuracy this past year.

Other nitpicks on Penix revolve around inconsistent mechanics and an inability to sense pressure (perhaps a symptom of left-handedness in a right-hander’s game), but the biggest areas of concern surround his health. Before transferring, Penix suffered four season-ending injuries in as many years. Many placed the utmost importance on his medical evaluations at the NFL scouting combine, and Ian Rapoport of NFL Network delivered the good news that his medical testing “went well,” claiming that “any medical questions that Penix had seem to be kind of pushed a little back under the radar.”

With that, let the speculation begin. The claims of Penix’s polarization come from the fact that mock drafts place him anywhere from No. 8 overall to the second and third round. Both ESPN’s Mel Kiper and Dane Brugler of The Athletic rank Penix as the draft’s sixth-best passing prospect, following the five mentioned above. Both pundits also have him slipping into the second round of the draft, with both citing injuries as a main concern. Perhaps, they believe that his combine clearance was more sweeping his injury potential under the rug than declaring it a non-issue.

Still, it only takes one front office to disagree. The consensus seems to be that Penix has first-round potential in his game, but he has to stay on the field in order to show it. If any team sees his 28 straight healthy games at Washington and feels confident about his health, or if any team feels confident in their offensive line’s ability to keep Penix on the field, there’s absolutely a possibility that we hear his name called on Day 1 of the draft, especially if we see a run on quarterbacks early. If not, there are several teams with temporary or non-cemented options at quarterback that could easily take a flyer on Penix in the second round.

The Bears, Commanders, Patriots, and Broncos have been seen as teams obviously looking to select a passer in the first round, but the Giants, Vikings, and Raiders could also be tempted. New York has never showed much commitment to Daniel Jones and could be interested in drafting his heir apparent. The Vikings brought in Sam Darnold, who has never spent a full season as a starter, so they may be interested in a young passer to mold. Las Vegas brought in Gardner Minshew to compete with Aidan O’Connell but may be interested in a passer with more potential upside. Also keep an eye on teams like the Seahawks and Rams, who have aging veterans and may want to bring in a rookie to compete with their other young, developing backups.

There’s no limit of possibilities for where we may see Penix go in late-April. He may be the league’s first left-handed quarterback taken in the first round since Tua Tagovailoa, or he could free fall into the second or third round. There are plenty more mock drafts to come between now and then around the internet, so keep an eye on the consistent rise and fall of Penix’s draft stock in the weeks between now and the draft.

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