HEADLINES

Offseason In Review: New Orleans Saints

August 29th, 2017 at 9:40pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Another year, another massive disparity between the two sides of the Saints’ roster. 2016 marked the third consecutive season in which New Orleans’ offense ranked as top-seven DVOA unit while the club’s defense finished in the bottom-two by the same metric. Closing that gap was atop general manager Mickey Loomis‘ offseason itinerary.

Notable signings:

While Jahri Evans had made nearly every start at right guard for the Saints over the past decade-plus, that won’t be the case in 2017, as New Orleans agreed to a four-year contract with former Lions lineman Larry Warford. Detroit wasn’t successful in the run-blocking game last season (31st in adjusted line yards), but the club was best at rushing up the middle, as it ranked 20th in ALY on runs over the center or guard. While Warford has never lived up to his standout rookie campaign, he’s been a relatively consistent player of the course of his NFL tenure. And the Saints got a good deal: among the top guards available in 2017 (Warford, Kevin Zeitler, T.J. Lang, and Ronald Leary), Warford is the youngest but received the lowest annual salary and cheapest guarantee.Adrian Peterson (Vertical)

Running behind Warford and the rest of the New Orleans offensive line will be veteran back Adrian Peterson, who landed with the Saints after the Vikings declined his 2017 option. Peterson, of course, was sidelined for two of the past three seasons, first by a child abuse case and then by a torn meniscus. When he was last healthy in 2015, Peterson lead the league with 1,485 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns, but he’s now 32 years old and could struggle to see work based on his lack of ability in the passing game (both as a receiver and a blocker). Peterson also has trouble running out of the shotgun, but that concern could be mitigated with the Saints, as New Orleans ran the ball out of a shotgun formation on only 13% of plays in 2017, 30th among NFL clubs.

Ted Ginn Jr. is another new addition to the Saints’ offense, and he’ll attempt to replicate the Devery Henderson role — deep pass specialist — with Drew Brees and the rest of the New Orleans passing game. Henderson led the NFL in yards per reception twice during his Saints career, and if Ginn can come close to that level of production, New Orleans will assuredly be pleased. In 2016, Ginn posted seven receptions of 30+ yards, four of which went for touchdowns, but he also has infamously unreliable hands, as he finished 13th in drop rate among wideouts with at least 50 targets.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Saints took another swing at finding an edge rusher to play opposite Cameron Jordan by inking former Cardinal Alex Okafor to a one-year pact. Okafor is still only 26 years old and put up eight sacks as recently as 2014, but he’s posted only 5.5 sacks during the past two years and will now be playing defensive end as opposed to outside linebacker. Sacks aren’t the only indicator of pressure, however, and Okafor ranked fourth among 3-4 outside ‘backers in Pro Football Focus‘ pass rush productivity metric a season ago. At the very least, Okafor will provide improvement over what New Orleans was deploying in 2016, and even if his lackluster run defense abilities make him a sub package-only player, Okafor should be a value at his $3MM salary.Manti Te'o (vertical)

The Saints’ linebacking unit will also see some new faces, as both Manti Te’o and A.J. Klein are expected to earn starting jobs. Te’o won’t technically be a full-time player, however, as he’ll start in New Orleans’ base defense before coming off the field on passing downs, meaning he’ll likely play on roughly a third of the club’s defensive snaps. That’s probably a good strategy for Te’o given his health concerns — the former second-round pick has missed a whopping 30 of 64 possible games during his four-year career, mostly due to lower-body injuries. Klein, meanwhile, stays in the NFC South after beginning his career in Carolina, where he mostly served as a reserve and special teams ace behind one of the league’s best linebacker duos in Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis. He figures to play alongside rookie Alex Anzalone in the Saints’ nickel defense.

Sterling Moore has been a valuable backup cornerback wherever he’s played, but he was stretched as a 12-game starter for the Saints last year. While he ranked as PFF’s No. 64 corner among 110 qualifiers, Moore finished 81st among 84 cornerbacks in Football Outsiders’ success rate. Moore played 76.7% of New Orleans’ defensive snaps (a career high) in 2016, but he will likely get pushed down the club’s depth chart during the upcoming season. The Saints invested a first-round draft choice in fellow corner Marshon Lattimore, while other defensive backs such as P.J. Williams are returning to health, meaning Moore will likely serve as a backup.

Moore was a cost-effective signing, but he wasn’t as cheap as the multitude of minimum salary benefit (MSB) contracts the Saints handed out this spring. As a reminder, MSB deals allow clubs to pay a player the veteran’s minimum based on their years of NFL experience while absorbing the cap charge for a player with only two accrued seasons. New Orleans signed 15 players to such pacts, six more than the next club (the Bears), and even guaranteed some portions of base salaries in those deals. For a team like the Saints that’s consistently up against the salary cap, it’s a smart strategy, as it allowed the team to bring in quality veterans such as Rafael Bush, Tony McDaniel, and Darryl Tapp without forfeiting much cap space.

Notable losses:

The Saints defense actually took a step forward in 2016! After running out arguably the league’s worst defense since the turn of the century in 2015, New Orleans improved last season, leaping up the defensive DVOA rankings all the way to…31st. Only the Lions posted worst results on the defensive side of the ball, as the Saints finished 14.6% below average against opposing offenses. As such, most of the club’s offseason was devoted to parting ways with aging dead weight on its defensive unit.Jairus Byrd (Vertical)

That effort started with the release of safety Jairus Byrd, who never lived up to six-year, $54MM contract he inked with the Saints prior to the 2014 campaign. While things had started looking up last season, with Byrd managing to appear in all 16 games and grading as the NFL’s No. 47 safety among 90 qualifiers (per PFF), the veteran defensive back had missed 15 contests in the two years prior. The Saints have gotten younger in the secondary over the past few seasons, using early-round draft picks on players such as Kenny Vaccaro, Vonn Bell, and Marcus Williams, leaving Byrd as the odd man out. Designated as a post-June 1 cut, Byrd’s $8MM in dead money will be spread across 2017 and 2018.

Byrd isn’t the only defensive back who won’t return to New Orleans next season, as fellow safety Roman Harper and cornerback B.W. Webb are also gone. Harper, who just wrapped up his second stint with the Saints, wasn’t sure as of June whether he wants to continue his NFL career at age-34, and he hasn’t been linked to any other clubs this offseason. Webb, meanwhile, has found a new contract (a one-year deal with the Bears) after appearing in 14 games for New Orleans in 2016. While starting a career-high seven contests, Webb played 56% of the Saints’ defensive snaps, although that was mostly a result of multiple injuries on the depth chart ahead of him.

Elsewhere on defense, veteran Paul Kruger was given the opportunity to play opposite Cameron Jordan in 2016, but didn’t do much with the chance — on 571 defensive snaps, Kruger posted only 1.5 sacks, 17 hurries, and nine hits against opposing quarterbacks. Now 31 years old and three years removed from a productive campaign, Kruger has yet to find a new NFL home. Linebacker Dannell Ellerbe, who like Kruger is also 31, was released just last week after recovering from a foot injury. Originally part of the return for Kenny Stills, Ellerbe never seemed to fit in with the Saints defense, and only appeared in 15 games over two years with the club.Tim Hightower

Tim Hightower did mesh with New Orleans, albeit on the offensive side of the ball. After sitting out of the league for three years, Hightower played well for the Saints from 2015-16, averaging four yards per carry on 229 total rushes. The 31-year-old scored eight times on the ground during those two years, helped out in the receiving game, and ranked an impressive 10th among running backs in DVOA, meaning he was excellent on a per-play basis. Hightower is now Carlos Hyde‘s chief backup in San Francisco, while the Saints have moved on with Adrian Peterson and Alvin Kamara behind Mark Ingram.

Blocking for Hightower and the rest of the Saints’ running backs over the past two years was right guard Jahri Evans, who started an amazing 169 games for New Orleans dating back to 2006. Evans was cut in February of 2016, but ultimately made his way back to the Saints after a stop in Seattle. While Evans isn’t the All Pro lineman he was in the latter portion of the 2000s, he’s still an above-average guard: last year, Evans graded as the league’s No. 33 guard among 75 qualifiers, according to PFF. Now a Packer, Evans is a shoo-in for the Saints’ Ring of Honor when he hangs up his cleats, and could have a shot at enshrinement in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Trades:

  • Acquired a 2017 first-round pick (No. 32) and a 2017 third-round pick (No. 103) from the Patriots in exchange for WR Brandin Cooks and 2017 fourth-round pick (No. 118).
  • Acquired a 2017 third-round pick (No. 67; RB Alvin Kamara) from the 49ers in exchange for a 2017 seventh-round pick (No. 229; CB Adrian Colbert) and a 2018 second-round pick.
  • Acquired LS Jon Dorenbos from the Eagles in exchange for a 2019 seventh-round pick.

Brandin Cooks is unquestionably a No. 1 NFL wideout — over the past two seasons, Cooks ranks fifth in receiving touchdowns, eighth in receiving yards, and 13th in receptions. Combine that with a contract that will pay roughly $10MM from 2017-18, and Cooks is an incredibly valuable asset. How valuable? The Patriots were willing to sacrifice a first-round pick to get him, and when New England’s acquisition of a fourth-rounder in the deal is factored out, the Pats rated Cooks as worth the 28th overall selection. While it’s still unclear why exactly the Saints dealt Cooks (off-field issues could’ve present, as Cooks complained about his target share last December), New Orleans ended up getting a left tackle (Ryan Ramczyk) and pass-rusher (Trey Hendrickson) out of the trade.

Draft picks:

After ranking 30th in DVOA and pass (and 23rd against opposing No. 1 wide receivers), the Saints must have been doing jumping jacks when Marshon Lattimore fell to them at pick No. 11. A run on quarterbacks and wideouts meant arguably the draft’s top cornerback prospect is now in New Orleans, and the Saints leapt at the chance to acquire him. Lattimore was excellent at Ohio State in 2016, as he allowed an opposing quarterback rating of only 31.9 while breaking up or intercepting 10 of his 41 targets, per Pro Football Focus. He became the Saints’ best corner the moment his name was called.Ryan Ramczyk (Vertical)

Armed with another first-round pick as a result of the Brandin Cooks trade, New Orleans picked up Wisconsin tackle Ryan Ramczyk with the final selection of Day 1. Initially slated to act as a reserve during his rookie campaign, Ramczyk is now the Saints’ starting left tackle following an injury to Terron Armstead. It’s entirely possible that Armstead will miss most or all of the season with a torn labrum, so Ramczyk will need to be capable from Day 1. A contributor in both the pass and run game, Ramczyk boasts an “urgent quickness in reach blocks” and “smooth pass slides with hands that are always punch ready,” according to Lance Zierlein of NFL.com.

While the Saints made the most of the majority of their draft choices (third-round linebacker Alex Anzalone is already projected as a starter), the club’s decision to trade up for Tennessee running back Alvin Kamara was a curious call. Kamara is certainly capable of putting impressive runs on film — check out his 50-yard touchdown run in New Orleans’ second preseason contest — but the Saints clearly overpaid to move up, as they sent 127 cents on the dollar to the 49ers for the No. 67 selection. As Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com noted earlier this year, New Orleans has made too many draft mistakes to be trading future capital for one specific (and unproven) player at a devalued position.

Extensions and restructures:

Other:

After signing a series of one-year contracts, defensive tackle Nick Fairley finally landed a multi-year deal, agreeing to a four-year, $28MM pact in order to return to New Orleans. But a heart condition means Fairley won’t play in 2017, might not play in the NFL again, and could lose a portion of his newly-signed deal. Clearly, Fairley’s health is the most important issue at play, but his absence is a large loss for the Saints, as he played nearly 70% of the club’s defensive snaps a year ago. New Orleans will hope last year’s first-round pick Sheldon Rankins grows in his second NFL campaign after missing seven games in 2016, but the team hasn’t done much to replace the production of Fairley.

Top 10 cap charges for 2017:

  1. Drew Brees, QB: $19,000,000
  2. Cameron Jordan, DE: $12,047,000
  3. Terron Armstead, T: $7,500,000
  4. Coby Fleener, TE: $7,500,000
  5. Max Unger, C: $7,400,000
  6. Zach Strief, T: $6,100,000
  7. Kenny Vaccaro, S: $5,676,000
  8. Mark Ingram, RB: $5,345,000
  9. Thomas Morstead, P: $4,700,000
  10. Larry Warford, G: $3,800,000

While former Rams head coach Jeff Fisher has earned derision for constantly finishing with a 7-9 record, Sean Payton hasn’t done much better in recent years, as the Saints have posted three consecutive nine-loss campaigns. Sure, Payton has a Super Bowl title in his back pocket and a lifetime winning percentage of .588, but that NFL is a “What Have You Done For Me Lately?” league. With Drew Brees entering the final year of his contract, and the Saints defense consistently holding back the reset of the club, it’s entirely possible New Orleans submits to a rebuild if 2017 doesn’t go as planned.

Information from Over the Cap and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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