PFR Originals News & Rumors

Free Agent Market For Tight Ends

February 21st, 2014 at 5:01pm CST by Luke Adams

When is a tight end not a tight end? An arbitrator may be tasked with answering that question sometime in the next few weeks, as the Saints and Ravens contemplate designating Jimmy Graham and Dennis Pitta as their respective franchise players. Both Graham and Pitta lined up as receivers for more than half their snaps in 2013, meaning they can make a strong case that they ought to be eligible for the franchise salary for a wide receiver rather than a tight end. Considering that gap figures to amount to about $4-5MM, it’ll be an crucial distinction for the players and their clubs.

For our purposes, we’ll continue to think of Graham and Pitta as tight ends, even if their pass-catching abilities and athleticism mean they’re split out more often than not. As tight ends, Graham and Pitta represent the two most appealing options on the open market, but there are a few intriguing names out there for teams in need of an upgrade.

So which clubs might be on the lookout for a tight end next month? The Ravens, Packers, Lions, Bills, and Jets are among the teams that will need a replacement if their prospective free agents sign elsewhere. The Falcons will be in the market for Tony Gonzalez‘s successor. And the Patriots, with an offensive scheme that requires multiple pass-catching tight ends, figure to survey the free agent landscape as well, though they may ultimately address the position in the draft.

Here’s a look at some of this year’s options:

First tier:

It goes without saying that Graham is far and away the best player in this group, and ranks near the top of the free agent class as a whole. His career numbers and the NFL’s CBA both suggest he should be paid like a wide receiver, but even if he does become eligible for that kind of money, the Saints won’t let him get away. As Drew Brees‘ top receiving option, Graham will either return to New Orleans on a long-term contract or as the club’s franchise player.

Pitta is a trickier case — unlike Graham, he’s probably not worth an eight-figure salary for one year, so it’d be a risk for the Ravens to use their franchise tag on him. Still, before he injured his hip, Pitta looked poised to improve on a 2012 season that saw him catch 61 balls for 669 yards and seven touchdowns. If he can be had for a salary in the $5-7MM range, Pitta could be a nice alternative to Graham.

Second tier:

The 2014 tight end class isn’t particularly top-heavy, but there are several players jockeying for position a few rungs below Graham and Pitta.

Jermichael Finley represents the player with the most upside in this group, but he’ll be recovering from concussion issues and a spinal injury that will cast doubt about his long-term future in the league. He’s reportedly on track to be cleared for action, but any teams willing to invest in the talented Finley will have to proceed with caution.

Scott Chandler, Brandon Myers, and Brandon Pettigrew, who all turn 29 this year, won’t ever be elite tight ends, but they’re reliable targets who remain capable of catching 50 balls in a season. Meanwhile, though former Pro Bowlers Dallas Clark and Kellen Winslow may have been elite at one point, their best years are behind them, making them inexpensive second-tier alternatives.

Teams in search of a little more youth and upside may target players like Garrett Graham, Jeff Cumberland, or Andrew Quarless. Graham in particular had an impressive 2013 campaign, racking up 49 receptions and five TDs in 13 games for the Texans. Cumberland and Quarless could be capable of posting similar numbers in the right situations this season — they’re only 26 and 25 years old, respectively.

Ed Dickson and Ben Hartsock are among the remaining second-tier options available for teams this offseason, and they bring two entirely different skill-sets to the table. Dickson has totaled 100 receptions over the last three seasons, but ranked 64th among 64 qualified tight ends using Pro Football Focus’ metrics (subscription required), due to an abysmal run-blocking grade. On the other end of the spectrum, Hartsock wasn’t a factor in the Panthers’ passing game, but easily ranked as the league’s best run-blocking tight end using PFF’s advanced stats.

The rest:

While most of the players mentioned above could get by as starters, at least in a pinch, teams likely won’t want to head into 2014 with any members of this group in the starting lineup. Still, Dustin Keller and Jeff King, who both missed 2013 due to knee injuries, have been solid in the past and could contribute if they’re healthy. Clay Harbor and Jim Dray may each be good for another 25 receptions in 2014, and guys like Bear Pascoe and Jeron Mastrud graded well as blockers over the course of a few hundred 2013 snaps and should draw interest as situational players.

Among the other familiar names: Kellen Davis, who only has 50 career catches since being drafted by the Bears in 2008; Jake Ballard, whose one solid season with the Giants in 2011 represents the lone bright spot on his NFL resumé so far; and Fred Davis, who has the talent to move the needle for a team if he’s reinstated — but with an indefinite suspension hanging over his head, he’s increasingly looking like a lost cause.

Previously:
Free Agent Market For Quarterbacks
Free Agent Market For Running Backs
Free Agent Market For Wide Receivers

Free Agent Market For Wide Receivers

February 20th, 2014 at 2:11pm CST by Luke Adams

NFL Network draft guru Mike Mayock suggested this week that the class of wide receivers available in 2014’s draft is the best he’s seen in years, but many teams in need of receiving help may not have to wait until May to address the position. While the draft class features a potential star in Sammy Watkins and many inexpensive alternatives behind him, 2014’s group of free agents includes plenty of veteran pass-catchers capable of stepping in and contributing immediately.

Although the depth in both the draft class and the free agent crop has some pundits suggesting it’ll be a buyer’s market next month, that doesn’t mean teams will be lining up to ink players to bargain contracts. As it stands, at least half of the league’s 32 teams could use some form of receiving help, and many of those are playoff clubs who won’t want to take a significant step back in 2014. Several of the top prospective free agents – including Eric Decker, Anquan Boldin, Julian Edelman, and Golden Tate – come from the franchises who competed in the conference championship games, so those teams will need to add reinforcements if they lose their own free agents.

Meanwhile, non-playoff clubs like the Lions, Steelers, and Browns will be looking to add solid complementary players alongside their current number one options, while teams like the Jets, Panthers, and Rams also figure to be on the lookout for receiving help. Considering how many clubs are expected to be in the mix for wide receivers, there may not be a ton of steals out there, but there certainly should be no shortage of intriguing options. Let’s have a look….

First tier:

Decker, Boldin, and Edelman were head and shoulders above the rest of 2014’s free agents when it came to 2013 production — Decker led all free agents in receiving yards and TDs, while Edelman’s 105 receptions easily led the pack and Boldin added 1,179 yards and seven touchdowns on 85 catches. All three players put up No. 1 numbers on top-five NFL teams, and should be in line for lucrative deals this offseason. Still, there are question marks surrounding all three: Decker had the league’s best quarterback throwing him the ball and Demaryius Thomas attracting defenders on the other side of the field; Boldin turns 34 during the 2014 season; and Edelman is more of a slot/possession receiver than a true number one.

Teams more inclined to roll the dice on a player with No. 1 upside could take a long look at Hakeem Nicks, whom our Rob DiRe profiled over the weekend. Nicks is coming off a down year, but has multiple 1000-yard seasons on his resumé and just turned 26 years old, making him a tantalizing buy-low candidate.

Rounding out the top tier are two pairs of teammates: Tate and Doug Baldwin of the Seahawks, and Jeremy Maclin and Riley Cooper of the Eagles. Tate and Baldwin were surprisingly effective in Seattle this season, each having ranked as top-25 receivers in both Football Outsiders’ and Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics. The Seahawks figure to retain at least one of the two, and will have the opportunity to match offers for the restricted Baldwin. As for Maclin and Cooper, the former missed the 2013 season with an ACL injury, while the latter didn’t produce consistently (he had less than 40 yards receiving in nine games). But if they’re healthy, both players should have no problem filling a No. 2 role in the right system.

Second tier:

A year after the Patriots made a play for him, the now-unrestricted Emmanuel Sanders continues to look like a nice fit for New England, and I’d be surprised if the Pats don’t pursue him again. Sanders heads the second tier, but there are several noteworthy names in this group.

After Sanders, the second tier offers a mix of young players with upside (Kenny Britt, Andre Roberts) and steady veterans whose best years are likely behind them (James Jones, Santana Moss, Nate Burleson). Brandon LaFell and Jerome Simpson should also receive consideration as players who could provide solid production as No. 3 options.

This group also includes several players whose value extends beyond their contributions on offense. Guys like Jacoby Jones, Ted Ginn, Dexter McCluster, and Devin Hester can also create big plays in the return game, which should give their stocks a nice boost if and when they hit the open market.

The rest:

For every Ginn, McCluster, or Hester, there are several return specialists whose offensive value is limited. Brandon Tate, Josh Cribbs, Jacoby Ford, and Micheal Spurlock are among the players who fit that bill. Their special teams contributions will earn them contracts, but their clubs probably won’t expect much from them in the passing game.

There are plenty of other notable names among the rest of the free agent receivers, however. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Mario Manningham, and Robert Meachem may never have had breakout years, but you could do a lot worse if you’re not looking for a starter. Longtime Texan Kevin Walter may still have a little left in the tank if he’s healthy, and Jerricho Cotchery is coming off his best season in years, having snagged a career-high 10 touchdown passes for the Steelers. Tiquan Underwood, Damian Williams, Josh Morgan, and Kevin Ogletree are among the other receivers available, and are all still in their mid-to-late 20s.

It goes without saying that none of 2014’s free agents will have the impact of a Calvin Johnson or a Brandon Marshall — if any team decides to pay one of this year’s free agents like a truly elite player, that club will likely regret it. Still, even if there are no superstars in the group, there are plenty of players capable of being excellent secondary options or potentially even sharing a No. 1 role. If a buyer’s market develops, it will be very interesting to see which teams get involved and which decide to hold off until the draft.

Previously:
Free Agent Market For Quarterbacks
Free Agent Market For Running Backs

Franchise/Transition Tags

February 18th, 2014 at 1:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Yesterday marked the first day that teams can apply the franchise tag to free-agents-to-be for 2014. While no clubs have designated franchise players yet, there will likely at least a handful of players receiving the tag before the March 3 deadline, so it’s worth taking an in-depth look at what exactly it means to be designated as a franchise player.

Essentially, the franchise tag is a tool that a team can use to keep one of its free agents from freely negotiating with rival suitors on the open market. Designating a franchise player means tendering that player a one-year contract offer. The amount of that offer varies from year to year and from position to position, and also differs slightly depending on what sort of specific tag the team employs. Here’s a breakdown of the three types of franchise/transition tags:

Exclusive franchise tag:

The amount of the one-year offer is either the average of the top five highest-paid players at the player’s position in the current league year or 120% of the player’s previous salary, whichever is greater. The top five highest-paid players at the position are determined once the free agent signing period ends in May, so the exact amount isn’t known until then.
The player isn’t allowed to negotiate with other teams.
The player and his team have until July 15 (or the first business day thereafter) to work out a multiyear agreement. After that date, the player can only sign a one-year contract.
The exclusive tag is generally only used for extremely valuable free agents, such as franchise quarterbacks.

Non-exclusive franchise tag:

The amount of the one-year offer is determined by a formula that includes the salary cap figures and the non-exclusive franchise salaries at the player’s position for the previous five years. Alternately, the amount of the one-year offer can be 120% of the player’s previous salary, if that amount is greater.
The player is free to negotiate with other teams. If he signs an offer sheet with another team, his current team has five days to match the offer.
If the offer is not matched, the player’s previous team will receive two first-round draft picks as compensation from the signing team.
As is the case with the exclusive franchise tag, July 15 (or the first business day thereafter) represents the deadline for a multiyear agreement.
Due to the attached compensatory picks, the non-exclusive franchise tag is generally sufficient for free agents — few rival suitors are willing to give up multiple first-rounders in order to sign a free agent to a lucrative deal, so there’s not much risk for a team to give up exclusive negotiating rights.

Transition tag:

The amount of the one-year offer is either the average of the top 10 highest-paid players at the player’s position in the previous league year or 120% of the player’s previous salary, whichever is greater.
The player is free to negotiate with other teams. If he signs an offer sheet with another team, his current team has five days to match the offer.
If the offer is not matched, the player’s previous team does not receive any compensatory draft picks.
Because it does not include any draft compensation or exclusive negotiation rights, and is only slightly more affordable, the transition tag is rarely used.

The exact amounts of these tags won’t be known until the salary cap number for 2014 is announced, and even then, the exclusive franchise tag amount won’t be established immediately. However, Joel Corry of CBSSports.com has a breakdown of the projected non-exclusive figures, ranging from around $3.4MM for a punter or kicker all the way up to $16MM+ for a quarterback. No quarterbacks will be franchised in 2014 now that Jay Cutler has signed a long-term contract, but plenty of those other projections will be relevant — Jimmy Graham (TE/WR, Saints), Greg Hardy (DE, Panthers), T.J. Ward (S, Browns), Brian Orakpo (OLB, Redskins) are among the candidates to receive the franchise tag.

As we’ve discussed several times on PFR, positions for players like Graham and Dennis Pitta figure to be a point of contention this offseason. Both players lined up as receivers more frequently than they played at tight end in 2013, and the CBA clearly states that the franchise salary shall be determined by the position at which the player “participated in the most plays during the prior league year.” The difference between the tight end and wide receiver franchise salaries is expected to be between $4-5MM, so it’s an important distinction for players like Graham and Pitta.

Here are a few other relevant details on franchise tags:

Each year, the period for teams to designate franchise players runs from the 22nd day before the new league year begins, right up until the eighth day before that new year. In 2014, that means February 17 to March 3, with the 2014 league year set to start on March 11.
A team can withdraw a franchise or transition tag at any time once when the free agent period begins, but it would immediately make the player an unrestricted free agent, allowing him to sign with any team.
If a player is designated a franchise player for a third time, the amount of his one-year offer is equal to the exclusive franchise salary for the highest-paid position (QB), 120% of the five largest prior-year salaries at his position, or 144% of his previous salary. That’s why, for instance, the 49ers won’t franchise Phil Dawson this offseason — it would be his third franchise tag, so he’d be eligible for the QB franchise salary.
Teams are allowed to designated one franchise player and one transition player per offseason. A team can also designate two transition players if it doesn’t designate a franchise player, but can’t designate two franchise players.
Restricted free agents can be designated as franchise players.
If a player chooses to sign the one-year franchise tender, his salary is essentially guaranteed. The CBA notes that if a team releases the player due to a failure “to establish or maintain his excellent physical condition,” the team may recoup his salary. However, a franchise player released due to poor performance, injury, or cap maneuvering will receive his full salary.

Note: This is a PFR Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to free agency, trades, or other aspects of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Information from Joel Corry and OverTheCap.com was used in the creation of this post.

PFR Originals: 2/10/14 – 2/16/14

February 16th, 2014 at 4:11pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Let’s take a gander at the original content produced last week by the PFR staff:

We asked if Jimmy Graham should be franchise-tagged as a tight end or as a wide receiver.
A guide to reserve/futures contracts.
The Pro Football Rumors iPhone/iPad app is now available on the iTunes store. And it’s free!
Following the front office shakeup in Cleveland, we asked if the Browns are moving in the right direction.
A poll asking if quarterback Mark Sanchez will find a starting job.
We looked at the free agent market for running backs, and then asked who represents the cream of the crop among said free agent running backs.
We introduced Pigskin Links, where readers can suggest interesting football-related blogs.
A guide to the NFL’s minimum salary.
A look at the free agent stock of receiver Hakeem Nicks.
A summary of the implications of Ted Wells’ report for the Dolphins’ roster.

Ted Wells Report: Future With Dolphins

February 15th, 2014 at 7:17pm CST by Rob DiRe

Since the Ted Wells Report was released, the Richie Incognito–Jonathan Martin controversy has returned to the forefront of sports talk radio and hundreds of sports blogs and columns. In addition to those two, Dolphins guard John Jerry and their Pro Bowl center Mike Pouncey seem to be equally implicated as part of the bullying that allegedly went on. It seems that everybody has to weigh in on what this means to the modern NFL locker room, and has somehow been paired with the other big NFL story, the acceptance of Michael Sam into the NFL.

These stories are plenty important, but what they are replacing is the normal NFL offseason chatter about who is going where and what team is looking at which player. Until some semblance of a contract materializes for Incognito or Jerry, or a trade happens for Martin, these players are only important as it pertains to the Wells Report. However, all four have been seriously hurt in terms of their football stock.

Dolphins’ owner Stephen Ross has been open in that he believes it is unlikely that either Incognito or Martin will return to the team in 2014, though the club does own Martin’s rights. The second-round pick out of Stanford still may have some value, writes Darrin Gantt of Pro Football Talk, since he is still a cheap option at right tackle. James Walker of ESPN.com writes of Martin: “He’s young, cheap and can play left and right tackle. Those players do not grow on trees.” Walker also notes that because other teams know that the Dolphins will release him Martin they cannot trade him, that does significantly lower his trade value.

Former coach Jim Harbaugh was an avid defender of Martin, which may prompt speculation that San Francisco could be a destination. However, the 49ers are set at tackle, with Joe Staley and Anthony Davis on each side. The Colts also have that connection, with Pep Hamilton and a number of former Stanford players there. Of course, they also have a lot of money already invested in tackle play, with Anthony Castonzo and Gosder Cherilus.

Incognito and Jerry are both free agents, making them easy decisions for the Dolphins — both will most likely be let go. Incognito was probably set for a pretty large contract extension with the Dolphins, due to his high level of play and status as a “leader” in the team’s locker room. Now, his value is minimal. He didn’t make many friends with the Rams before he joined the Dolphins, so he does not have a lot of coaching staffs to fall back on. The Raiders’ offensive coordinator Greg Olsen could put a good word in for him, as the Raiders are in need of offensive line help.

Vinnie Iyer of SportingNews.com does note that in the landscape of the modern NFL, Incognito has a better chance of being accepted into another locker room than Martin. “Incognito doesn’t come out of the investigation looking like Mr. Nice Guy, but he hasn’t tried to. There’s a reason his mean streak is one of his biggest assets as a player,” Iyer writes. “For teams needy of interior line help, such as the Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts or San Diego Chargers, he’s Mr. Nice Price.”

Jerry was also a candidate to be retained by the Dolphins before being implicated in the Wells Report, but his return is now unlikely, writes Charlie McCarthy of Fox Sports Florida. Jerry doesn’t have the history of performance that Incognito did. What he does have in his favor is a far less noticeable role in the bullying of Martin, but still he will find it difficult to sign a deal similar to one he could have had with the Dolphins had he not been implicated. Both Incognito and Jerry’s free agency could be further hurt if the league decides to suspend them for a few games during the 2014 season.

Finally, there is Pouncey, who despite his age, might be the most accomplished of the four, and definitely has the brightest future. Much like Jerry, he is able to downplay his role in the bullying, but unlike Jerry he is under contract for 2014. Also unlike Jerry, he has performed on the field as one of top lineman at his position over his short career thus far, reaching the Pro Bowl this past year. Still, a week ago James Walker of ESPN.com listed Pouncey as one of the players on the Dolphins who has outperformed his contract and is deserving of a raise. After his name became involved in the Wells Report, and with a looming suspension possible, that raise seems highly unlikely.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Hakeem Nicks

February 15th, 2014 at 4:26pm CST by Rob DiRe

When looking at the landscape of free agent receivers, Eric Decker has separated himself in the eyes of general managers as the top pass catcher on the market. Our own Luke Adams wrote about Decker’s spot as the top free agent receiver earlier this month, noting that the only receivers on the market who can even come close to his production are Anquan Boldin and Julian Edelman. However, Decker was not always the clear cut big name receiver teams were looking. Last summer, Hakeem Nicks was thought to be the guy who would command the most free agent dollars this offseason.

Unlike Decker, Nicks is coming off his worst season as a pro in his contract year. He caught only 56 passes, totaling 896 yards, and very notably finished the season without a touchdown. He spent the season alternating between looking disinterested and expressing his discontent. The New York media started raking him over the coals due to his effort level about halfway through the Giants’ 0-6 start, declared him a malcontent and seemed to close the door on his tenure with the team by midseason. Trade rumors began to swirl, first with the Giants looking for a second-round pick in return. By the trade deadline, the media was wondering if the Giants could even expect a fourth-round pick in return. All in all, 2013 fell short of expectations for Nicks to say the least.

While Nicks cost himself a ton of money with a down 2013, teams interested in acquiring a number one caliber receiver for a cheap price could be enamored with the 26-year-old. Coming into last season the only knock on Nicks was his durability, as he had trouble staying on the field for Big Blue and often when he was on the field, he was playing at less than 100%. Shoulder, ankle, and knee injuries nagged him throughout the 2011 and 2012 seasons. When teammate Victor Cruz signed his extension last offseason, the sentiment was for Nicks to prove he can stay healthy and his deal would follow. Nicks was mostly healthy last year, but to no avail.

For teams interested in finding a talented receiver in free agency, long-term memory may have them leaning toward Nicks. It feels like forever ago, but in 2010, Nicks caught 79 balls, for 1,052 yards and a whopping 11 touchdowns in 12 starts. He followed that up with 76 catches for 1,192 yards and seven more touchdowns in 15 games in 2011. His most impressive stretch came during the Giants’ Super Bowl run, where he was the team’s most dominant offensive player, putting impressive numbers as he propelled the Giants to victory:

Wild Card Round vs. Falcons – six catches, 115 yards, two touchdowns
Divisional Round at Packers – seven catches, 165 yards, two touchdowns
NFC Championship at 49ers – five catches, 55 yards (left with shoulder injury)
Super Bowl vs. Patriots – ten catches, 109 yards

Had he reached free agency that offseason, his value would be much different. An injury-plagued 2012 season leading into this past year has dimmed the light shining on a player who was recently thought of as one of the top young playmakers in the NFL. Nicks is unlikely to re-sign with the Giants, even at a reduced rate, although Cruz has pushed for him to return. He may find himself on a one-year “prove it” deal with some team. Brad Wells of StampedeBlue.com believes the Colts could be able to lure him in on a one-year, $2.2MM deal.

Andrew Cohen of OverTheCap.com broke down the wide receiver market earlier this month, he saw Nicks as still deserving of a bigger contract. Cohen predicted Nicks to the Lions on a three-year, $30MM deal with about $13MM in guaranteed money. The thinking behind this was that the Lions are ready to win now, and positioning a star like Nick across from Calvin Johnson could take the offense to new heights. If Nicks was willing to take a smaller deal, Cam Newton and the Panthers are in desperate need of a bigger receiver, and the North Carolina product might consider his hometown if the market didn’t present a more lucrative option.

While his durability and effort level have provided serious red flags to his pending free agency, there should be some team out there with money to spend on potential. The draft will provide teams with a number of options at receiver, as it is supposed to be a deep class highlighted by Sammy Watkins of Clemson, Mike Evans of Texas A&M, and Marquise Lee of USC, all three of which are expected to be drafted in the first round.

Nicks is a 6’1″, 208-pound wideout, with impressive speed and playmaking ability. At 26 years old, and with the numbers he put up only a few years ago, he could command more money than most expect in a year where the other top free agent options are Decker and Boldin. While some may think Decker is a number two wideout about to be paid like a number one, Nicks is the buy-low option, where a team can pay him like a number two and hold out hope that he produces like the number one option he was in 2010 and 2011.

Minimum Salary

February 14th, 2014 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The NFL salary cap is expected to exceed $126MM in the 2014 season, and while that figure gives teams a good deal of spending flexibility, each and every club will still have to fill out the back of its roster with players earning minimum salaries. The amount of that minimum salary varies from player to player, depending on service time. A veteran with 10 or more years of NFL experience is eligible for a minimum salary that more than doubles a rookie’s minimum salary.

For the 2014 season, the minimum base salary for a rookie will be worth $420K, while a veteran of 10+ years will earn $955K on a minimum salary. However, those figures are on the rise with each passing year, increasing annually by $15K. Here’s a breakdown of what the NFL’s minimum salaries will look like from the 2013 season through 2020 (dollar amounts in thousands):

Hypothetically, let’s suppose that when free agency opens next month, a player with three years of experience signs a two-year contract worth the minimum salary, with no signing bonus. His salary for the first year of the deal would be $645K, the 2014 amount for a player with three years of experience. The second year would check in at $745K, the 2015 figure for a player with four years of experience.

Players on minimum base salaries can still receive various kinds of bonuses, but those will count toward the player’s cap number, so teams are generally reluctant to include significant signing bonuses on minimum salary contracts.

As for that cap number, a team can avoid having a veteran player’s full minimum salary count against the cap by signing him to a qualifying contract. The league’s Minimum Salary Benefit Rule ensures that, for a player with four or more years of experience, his cap hit on a minimum salary contract will only be equal to the cap number for a minimum-salary player with two years of experience — for 2014, that figure is $570K. To qualify for this reduced cap number, the contract must be for no more than one year, and the bonus money cannot exceed $65K (this maximum bonus increases by $15K every three years).

In other words, let’s say a player with nine years of experience signs a one-year, minimum-salary contract with the Cowboys for the 2014 season. The deal also includes a signing bonus of $30K. While that player would earn a total salary of $885K (a base minimum of $855K plus the $30K bonus), the cap hit for Dallas would only be $600K — the $570K minimum, plus the $30K bonus. This rule ensures that teams won’t necessarily opt to sign young players over veterans in an effort to minimize cap charges.

While a player can sign a contract with a team and spend a full season with the franchise, that doesn’t necessarily earn him a credited season for minimum salary purposes. A player must be on a club’s 53-man roster for at least three weeks in order to earn a credited season. So if a rookie spends three games on a team’s 53-man roster, and then is cut, he’ll be considered to have one year of experience the following season, even if he didn’t appear in a single game. However, if a player spends two games on a team’s 53-man roster, then is placed on injured reserve, that’s not a credited season.

Players on injured reserve may also not earn their full minimum salaries. The contracts for many young players and veterans with injury histories include what is known as a split salary, so that if the player is placed on injured reserve, his salary is reduced to an IR minimum. Here’s the breakdown of what those minimum salary figures look like for the next several years:

While there are plenty of rules and guidelines surrounding minimum salary contracts, the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement doesn’t include a limit on what a player can earn a season. A team must fit its full roster under the salary cap, which is why we typically don’t see annual salaries larger than $20-25MM. But with no defined maximum salary in place, an NFL team could, in theory at least, pay a player for double or triple that amount, assuming that player was surrounded by a few dozen teammates on minimum salaries.

Note: This is a PFR Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to free agency, trades, or other aspects of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Information from OverTheCap.com was used in the creation of this post.

Free Agent Market For Running Backs

February 13th, 2014 at 4:02pm CST by Luke Adams

In recent years, many NFL teams have moved away from an offensive game plan that predominantly involves one feature back, instead choosing to rotate two or three backs in and out of the lineup. Several of the league’s most dangerous offenses over the last few seasons, including those in New England and New Orleans, have relied on multiple backs, without any one player racking up huge yardage.

That’s not to say that there aren’t still running backs capable of carrying the ball 300+ times in a season, but the position has increasingly become one that teams feel they can fill without landing a big-name player. No running backs are expected to be selected in the first round of this year’s draft, and the one major trade for a back consummated during the 2013 season (the Colts giving up a 2014 first-round pick for Trent Richardson) turned into something of a cautionary tale when Richardson struggled to produce in Indianapolis.

Nonetheless, teams still need to fill the position somehow, and with many intriguing players set to hit free agency this offseason, it could be a buyer’s market for running backs. The Broncos, Raiders, Patriots, Jaguars, Colts, and Giants are among the teams whose most productive backs are pending free agents, while the list of other clubs who could explore upgrades at the position includes the Dolphins, Browns, Titans, and Falcons. Here’s a breakdown of which players might be on their shopping lists:

First tier:

Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden are perhaps the most noteworthy names in this year’s group — MJD led the league in rushing as recently as the 2011 season, and McFadden is a former fourth overall pick and is still just 26 years old. Still, both players had disappointing walk years, with injuries playing a role in both cases. That’s a familiar theme for McFadden, who has never played a full season, and it’s also becoming increasingly common for Jones-Drew, who appeared in just six 2012 games before being plagued by nagging injuries in 2013. Both players offer tantalizing upside and should still have something left in the tank, but they’ll need to be paired with solid second and third options in order to keep their workloads in check.

Rashad Jennings, MJD’s former backup in Jacksonville and McFadden’s replacement in Oakland for much of the 2013 season, averaged 4.5 yards per carry and filled in admirably for McFadden with the Raiders. While he may not be relied upon to be a No. 1 back, he’d make an excellent No. 2. The same could be said for Joique Bell, who had an excellent season in Detroit sharing backfield duties with Reggie Bush. Among this year’s free agent backs, none ranked higher according to Pro Football Focus’ metrics than Bell (ninth), though he’ll be a restricted FA and has conveyed a strong desire to re-sign with the Lions.

LeGarrette Blount, Knowshon Moreno, and Donald Brown weren’t expected to carry the loads for their respective clubs when the 2013 season opened, but by January, they were the No. 1 backs for three of the AFC’s top four teams. None of them are older than 27, so they should do well on the open market, though their potential earnings vary. I expect Moreno, who has the strongest career resumé overall, to land the biggest contract of the three, while Brown will likely sign the most modest deal. Brown only assumed the top role in Indianapolis due to Ahmad Bradshaw‘s neck injury and Richardson’s ineffectiveness, and is likely to return to No. 2 duties wherever he ends up in 2014.

Finally, while he’s not currently eligible for free agency in 2014, Chris Johnson is very likely to be released by the Titans. Johnson’s production has certainly slowed down since he rushed for over 2000 yards in 2009, but he has still recorded six consecutive seasons of 1000+ rushing yards since entering the league, and could benefit from a change of scenery.

Second tier:

Injuries in 2013 limited the likelihood of Ben Tate or Andre Brown landing big contracts this offseason, but both players have the potential to match or surpass the production of any of the running backs listed among the first-tier options. Although Tate has been stuck behind Arian Foster in Houston for the last several seasons, he’s believed to have the talent to be an NFL starter, and could get that opportunity in 2014, depending on where he lands. Brown, meanwhile, has flashed a ton of promise during the last two seasons with the Giants, but didn’t take full advantage of his opportunity to start in 2013, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry on 139 attempts.

While Tate and Brown are still fairly young, with their best years potentially ahead of them, many of the other names in this group will draw interest because of performances in years past. Rashard Mendenhall and Peyton Hillis had their best seasons in 2010, but were seeing significant action up until last year, and should be able to land backup roles. Meanwhile, Willis McGahee started six games in 2013 for the Browns, and turned in a career-worst 2.7 yards per carry. That performance could make it an uphill battle to land a backup role in 2014, but considering McGahee reportedly wants to play for several more seasons, he at least believes he has something left in the tank.

James Starks should also draw interest in a part-time role, as he’s coming off the best season of his four-year career, averaging 5.5 yards per carry and racking up nearly 500 rushing yards for the Packers.

The rest:

Every year, we see non-descript backs take advantage of openings created by injuries or poor performance, so it’s likely that at least one or two names in this group will make some noise next season. The rest of the names on the 2014 free agent list include longtime backups like Anthony Dixon and Toby Gerhart, who have been stuck behind Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson respectively for the last several seasons.

There are also former starters such as Ronnie Brown, Felix Jones, and Bradshaw, who aren’t likely to return to a starting role anytime soon. Throw in solid part-timers such as Jonathan Dwyer and Jackie Battle, and return specialists like Leon Washington, and there should be plenty of options available on the free agent market for teams who don’t want to use draft picks to fill out their backfields.

Previously:
Free Agent Market For Quarterbacks

Reserve/Futures Contracts

February 10th, 2014 at 4:23pm CST by Luke Adams

2014’s free agent period doesn’t officially get underway for another month, but NFL teams have announced new roster additions nearly every day as of late. Players signing contracts now are inking deals that are known as reserve or futures deals. What exactly does that mean? Here’s a quick breakdown:

Reserve/futures contracts essentially function like regular free agent deals, except that only players who didn’t finish the previous season on an NFL team’s active roster can sign them. So a player on a practice squad could ink a futures contract, and many have in recent weeks. After the Super Bowl, for instance, we saw the Broncos and Seahawks lock up each and every player on their respective practice squads, allowing those teams to continue working with those players leading up to the 2014 season.

These deals are known as “futures” contracts because they don’t technically go into effect until the 2014 league year begins on March 11. So signing a player to a futures contract now will not have an impact on a team’s 2013 cap. As for the 2014 books, players on reserve/futures deals are counted toward a club’s cap if they’re among the top 51 highest-paid players on the roster. Often, that’s not the case though, and those players simply count toward a team’s 90-man offseason roster limit.

Players on futures contracts don’t frequently rank among a team’s 51 highest-paid contracts because they’re generally on minimum salaries. There’s no rule that says futures deals can only be worth the minimum or can’t include signing bonuses, but because these players weren’t previously on NFL rosters, they generally don’t have a ton of leverage. As Brian McIntyre notes (via Twitter), only 19 of 374 futures contracts signed since the regular season ended include any sort of guaranteed money, with former CFLer Henoc Muamba receiving the largest guarantee — $107K from the Colts.

We’re only a few more weeks away from 2014’s full free agent class hitting the open market, but in the meantime, we’ll likely see plenty more futures contracts inked. Nick Mensio of Rotoworld.com has been staying on top of these deals throughout the offseason, so to track the players currently on reserve/futures deals, be sure to check out his complete list.

Note: This is a PFR Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to free agency, trades, or other aspects of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Information from Joel Corry, Steeler Addicts, and Bleacher Report was used in the creation of this post.

PFR Originals: 2/3/14 – 2/9/14

February 9th, 2014 at 8:32pm CST by Ben Levine

On our first Sunday without any football, here’s original content posted by the Pro Football Rumors staff from this past week to ease you through the offseason blues…

The NFL’s new agreement with CBS will not only affect which channel you watch each Thursday but also the league’s revenue and, vicariously, the league’s salary cap.
Using Larry Fitzgerald‘s new extension as context, an explanation of how teams restructure contracts.
An analysis of Eric Decker‘s value in free agency.
A look at Michael Vick, Josh McCown and the other top free agent quarterbacks.
A guide to following individual players on Pro Football Rumors.
One poll asking which of the Seahawks‘ free agents the team should prioritize re-signing and another poll asking who the champs should play in next season’s opener.

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