Belichick confirmed the sides engaged in discussions, and the legendary HC said the parties were “relatively” close to a deal. At the time, it did not appear these talks were too close to producing a deal; the Pats were believed to be leery of Meyers’ price tag. Meyers’ comments in the wake of Smith-Schuster’s signing suggested he did not view the Patriots as especially eager to bring him back. Meyers has enjoyed a solid start back with Josh McDaniels. The four-year Patriot, despite missing a game due to a concussion, has 25 receptions for 274 yards and three touchdowns. Smith-Schuster, who led Chiefs wide receivers in yardage by a wide margin last season, is at 14-86-0 through five games.
Here is the latest from the AFC East:
Jalen Ramsey‘s meniscus surgery altered the Dolphins‘ cornerback plans significantly, and a return as late as December entered the equation following the procedure. But the 4-1 team looks to be eyeing a Ramsey return commencing a bit sooner. When asked if he could see Ramsey coming back in November, cornerbacks coach Sam Madison responded in the affirmative. “Yeah, speaking with trainers, he looks really good,” Madison said, via the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson. “Very hopeful and looking forward to getting him on the field.” This marks the biggest chunk of time Ramsey has missed as a pro. Following his March arrival from Los Angeles, Ramsey agreed to a redone contract that guaranteed his 2024 salary, which will provide security after this abbreviated season.
Weeks 4 and 5 gutted the Bills‘ defense. The unit lost its top cornerback, top linebacker and its best interior D-lineman. Tre’Davious White, Matt Milano and DaQuan Jones are each on IR. On that note, ESPN.com’s Graziano offers that the Bills should be expected to look around for defensive help ahead of the Oct. 31 trade deadline. With Von Miller in his age-34 season and Stefon Diggs turning 30 next month, this certainly profiles as a critical season for the Bills — especially on the heels of a one-sided playoff loss. The team has each of its picks in the first five rounds next year and holds three sixth-rounders. Early-season trades point to the Round 6 selections being relevant regarding potential Buffalo additions.
The Bills fired COO John Roth and senior VP/general counsel Kathryn D’Angelo for engaging in an inappropriate romantic relationship, The Athletic’s Tim Graham reports (subscription required). Roth, whom the Bills promoted this summer, served as D’Angelo’s superior. This issue surfaced in London. Although D’Angelo joined Roth in reporting to owner Terry Pegula, Graham adds Roth recommended her promotion. Josh Dziurlikowski will serve as the team’s interim COO, per Graham, moving up from senior VP of finance and business administration.
In September, the Patriotsadded $2MM in incentives to Trent Brown‘s contract. Details have emerged, via ESPN.com’s Mike Reiss, who notes the adjustment includes $250K in per-game roster bonuses. Seven tiers of playing-time incentives now exist in Brown’s deal, with a $250K payoff in place for hitting each. Brown’s cap number dropped by $375K as well, settling in at $12.21MM. A 2024 void year is now in place, with the Pats set for a $2MM dead-money hit if they do not re-sign Brown before the 2024 league year starts. Brown signed a two-year, $13MM deal in 2022. The veteran tackle, who missed 19 games from 2019-21, has been available for four New England contests this season.
At left tackle, Dion Dawkins slots in as the obvious left tackle starter, as he has since his rookie year. The starter across from him, for right now, is currently Spencer Brown. Brown has started 24 games over his first two years in the league, but the ability of the former third-round pick to start long term has yet to be proven.
If Brown struggles or if he or Dawkins go down with injury, Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic reports that David Quessenberry is expected to slot into the primary backup, swing tackle role. Buffalo doesn’t have a ton of depth beyond Quessenberry, and this late in the season, that’s not too likely to change.
Tommy Doyle and Ryan Van Demark both sit on the depth chart behind Quessenberry and should make a push for the initial 53-man roster, if not solely due to the lack of depth. But Quessenberry should be the first name off the bench in the case that Brown or Dawkins aren’t there for any reason.
Here are a few other rumors coming out of the AFC, starting with another team in the AFC East:
The Patriots have been operating the past two weeks without veteran starting cornerback Jonathan Jones. The long-time staple in New England’s secondary has been absent with an undisclosed injury. Luckily, whatever the ailment is, Karen Guregian of MassLive reports that Jones is expected to be back for the team’s regular season opener. The Patriots are reportedly being careful with him, but the plan is for him to be starting a couple Sundays from now.
Last month, the Raidersconcluded a deal that would eventually help them bring in veteran cornerbackMarcus Peters. According to ESPN’s Field Yates, the team converted $3.92MM of wide receiver Jakobi Meyers‘s base salary for 2023 into a signing bonus and added two voidable years. The move takes his base salary down from $5MM in 2023 to $1.08MM but freed up $3.14MM of cap space, helping Las Vegas to continue building their roster this offseason.
Staying in the AFC West, the rich got richer when the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs added Kansas State pass rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah at the end of the first round this past April. Most of the team’s pass rushing comes from interior lineman Chris Jones, but with Frank Clark gone, a starting role was open across from George Karlaftis III. Kansas City signedCharles Omenihu to potentially fill that role, but he is set to serve a six-game suspension to start the season. Still, according to The Athletic contributor Nate Taylor’s recent update, the plan for Anudike-Uzomah appears to be for him to appear out of a rotation. The team may explore adding an additional veteran pass rusher to help holdover the role in Omenihu’s absence, but in the long run, they don’t want to rush Anudike-Uzomah out on the field until he’s ready.
MARCH 16: The $33MM number turned out to be the max value here. Instead, the Patriots signed the seventh-year wideout to a three-year, $25.5MM contract, Ben Volin of the Boston Globe tweets. Like Meyers, he received $16MM guaranteed at signing, but he did not reach an eight-figure AAV. Smith-Schuster can get to that $33MM mark via performance, with Volin adding $7.5MM remains available through receiving yards-based incentives. Only $4.5MM of those incentives are achievable during the deal’s guaranteed years, with SI.com’s Albert Breer adding $3MM are part of Smith-Schuster’s 2025 potential earnings (Twitter link).
MARCH 15: While mutual interest existed between the Chiefs and JuJu Smith-Schuster, the veteran wide receiver looks set to change teams again. The Patriots are signing the seventh-year wideout, Taylor Bisciotti and Ian Rapoport of NFL.com report (on Twitter).
This situation appeared to come down to how much of a hometown discount Smith-Schuster would accept; he said before Super Bowl LVII he wanted to stay in Kansas City. It is unclear how much the Chiefs offered, but Mike Giardi of NFL.com tweets the money did not reach the place the Pats went (Twitter link).
New England is giving Smith-Schuster a three-year, $33MM deal, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com tweets. Guarantees are not yet known, but ESPN’s Adam Schefter adds JuJu will collect $22.5MM through 2024 (Twitter link). After settling for one-year deals in 2021 (with Pittsburgh) and ’22 (with Kansas City), Smith-Schuster finally scores a multiyear commitment.
Used mostly in the slot with the Steelers, Smith-Schuster shuffled across formations with the Chiefs and produced a rebound season upon teaming with Patrick Mahomes. The 26-year-old target caught 78 passes for 933 yards and three touchdowns. The 933 yards marked Smith-Schuster’s most since his 2018 Pro Bowl season in Pittsburgh. He finished with the fifth-most YAC over expected (plus-141), per Next Gen Stats, in 2022.
Smith-Schuster’s AAV matches the money the Raiders and Jets gave to Meyers and Allen Lazard, respectively, and this represents another medium-term accord the Pats are giving out to bolster the position. They handed Nelson Agholor a two-year, $22MM contract in 2021. The former first-rounder did not live up to it, and he is unlikely to return in 2023. It is interesting the Pats passed on Meyers to pay an outside hire similar cash — something Meyers has since noticed (Twitter link) — but Smith-Schuster has shown a slightly higher ceiling. These two are also the same age, despite Meyers entering the league two years later. The Patriots did not offer Meyers the kind of guarantees the Raiders did, Giardi adds. Meyers signed for $22MM guaranteed in total and $16.5MM fully guaranteed.
Although Smith-Schuster’s 1,400-yard season during Antonio Brown‘s Steelers swansong still looks like an outlier, he showed plenty in Kansas City last season. The Chiefs signed Smith-Schuster, a free agent target for two years, to an incentive-laden deal — initially a $3.8MM pact — and the USC alum ended up adding millions to his 2022 earnings by hitting a few of those benchmarks. Kansas City obviously features a favorable setup, with Reid calling the shots in a Mahomes-piloted attack, but Smith-Schuster became the No. 1 receiver for a team that managed to win the Super Bowl after trading Tyreek Hill. It will be interesting to see who the Chiefs target to fill Smith-Schuster’s role. While the team is keen on expandingKadarius Toney‘s responsibilities, the talented ex-Giant’s rampant injury trouble could interfere.
Mecole Hardman remains unsigned, and while the Chiefs were planning to let the speedster walk, perhaps the Smith-Schuster defection changes their thinking. Kansas City will be an attractive setup for wide receivers, and Odell Beckham Jr. remains available. OBJ would undoubtedly need to set a new price point, as his reported $20MM-per-year ask is out of step with his value. But the Chiefs were connected to OBJ in 2021 and ’22.
As for the Patriots, Smith-Schuster will join a team in transition at receiver. Kendrick Bourne enjoyed a solid season in 2021 but fell into the doghouse last season. The Pats used a second-round pick on Tyquan Thornton, but an injury halted his rookie-year development. DeVante Parker remains under contract, as does Bourne, but Smith-Schuster is now positioned to be the No. 1 receiver in Bill O’Brien‘s offense.
The team has also looked into Jerry Jeudy, per Denver7’s Troy Renck (on Twitter), and DeAndre Hopkins. It is unclear how serious it is to making more upgrades after landing JuJu. The Pats are not currently pursuing Hopkins, Albert Breer of SI.com tweets.
The first major wide receiver domino of the free agent period has fallen. Jakobi Meyersis set to sign with the Raiders on a three-year, $33MM contract (Twitter link via Ian Rapoport of NFL Network).
The pact includes $21MM guaranteed, and will give Vegas another notable new piece on offense. The Raiders agreed to terms yesterday on a deal with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. He, just like Meyers, will be reunited with head coach Josh McDaniels after working alongside the latter in New England when he served as the Patriots’ offensive coordinator.
Las Vegas’ Meyers accord contains $16MM fully guaranteed, Ben Volin of the Boston Globe tweets, with the remaining $5MM being an injury guarantee. Meyers has the final $5.5MM in guarantees coming to him in 2024, via a roster bonus. Like Garoppolo, the team could escape this contract — with a bit of dead money — next year. Beyond the fully guaranteed roster bonus, $5MM shifts from an injury guarantee to a full guarantee on Day 3 of the 2024 league year, Tom Pelissero of NFL.com tweets.
Meyers, 26, enjoyed a noteworthy career ascension across his four seasons spent in New England. The former UDFA became a starter by his second season, and has been one of the few constants in the Patriots’ underwhelming passing attack in recent years. Meyers comfortably led the team in receiving yards (804) in 2022, and was expected to headline a less-than stellar class of free agent wideouts this offseason.
The $11MM AAV of this pact falls short of what some reports indicated he could receive on the open market. Meyers has put up consistent totals in a number of categories over the past three seasons, but his yards-per-catch average sits at 11.7 for his career. That figure pegs him as a high-end complimentary wideout in an ideal role, something which will be possible with the Raiders.
Vegas already has Davante Adamsatop their WR depth chart, and highly-regarded slot man Hunter Renfrowon the books after he signed a new deal last offseason. The Raiders also have Pro Bowl tight end Darren Waller, so Meyers represents the latest addition to a multi-faceted pass-catching corps. He will have the opportunity to continue his steady production with a familiar scheme.
For the Patriots, this news marks the second straight day of a pass-catcher departing. New England traded away tight end Jonnu Smithyesterday, and will now have a hole to fill at wideout with Meyers defecting. That position was already a weak one even with Meyers and fellow veteran Nelson Agholor, who is reportedly expected to leave in free agency as well. New England will have considerable work to do to upgrade their passing efficiency, but the Raiders will have another impact playmaker in place when they look to rebound in 2023 with a new-look offense.
MARCH 12: One team that has looked into Meyers’ market believes the NC State product will command a $15MM/year deal, a source tells Mike Reiss of ESPN.com. If that projection is accurate, then it becomes even more unlikely that Meyers returns to Foxborough, and Doug Kyed of AtoZSports.com says fellow wideout Nelson Agholor also appears to be headed elsewhere.
Per Reiss, Jones has indicated that he would like to re-sign with the Pats and that the two sides have discussed a new contract.
MARCH 7: Jonathan Jones played out his second Patriots contract in 2022. The veteran cornerback now joins Jakobi Meyers in free agency. New England appears interested in retaining Jones, while Meyers’ expected price tag may be too steep.
The Pats are interested in re-signing Jones, Karen Guregian of the Boston Herald reports. Substantial talks do not appear to have taken place, but the former Super Bowl contributor does not profile as the top corner available in free agency like J.C. Jackson did a year ago. Meyers, however, may be the top option at his position. That stands to complicate a return to the Pats.
Murphy and Jones each bring slot and boundary coverage experience, with the latter serving as New England’s top slot option for most of his tenure. Pro Football Focus graded Jones as the No. 5 overall corner in 2020, his most recent full season as a slot player. Jones suffered an injury midway through the 2021 season but bounced back in 2022. Jones played on the outside more in 2022, out of necessity but has earned a solid reputation in the slot over the course of his career.
Still, his age (30 in September) will provide some limitations in free agency. Although the Pats are interested in keeping Jones, Rapoport tweets a franchise tag should not be considered in the equation. With the cornerback tag being $18.3MM, Jones was never a candidate to be cuffed. Slot corners’ value has not come up near the point a tag would enter the picture.
Entering his age-27 season, Meyers is coming of back-to-back 800-plus-yard receiving campaigns. After Pats signings of Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne produced inconsistency, their UDFA success story has provided some security. Meyers’ relatively low yards-per-reception totals (12.4 is his career-high mark) could cap his value, but this year’s receiver market will still put him in position to command a lucrative accord.
Super Bowl LVII provided the latest example of the value free agency can bring. The Chiefs revamped their receiving corps on last year’s market, while the Eagles acquired three defensive starters — including sack leader Haason Reddick. The Jaguars also used a March 2022 splurge to ignite their surprising surge to the divisional round.
Beginning with the legal tampering period, which starts at 3pm CT on Monday, and continuing with the official start to free agency (3pm Wednesday), the next several days represent a highlight on the NFL calendar. Which teams will change their 2023 outlooks for the better next week?
While the 2023 free agent class has absorbed its share of body blows and indeed lacks depth at certain spots, a few positions will bring waves of starter-level talent. Right tackle will invite some big-money decisions, and the safety and off-ball linebacker positions feature considerable depth. A few ascending talents and hidden gems appear in this class as well.
This list ranks free agents by earning potential. In terms of accomplishments, Bobby Wagner, Fletcher Cox and Lavonte David would lap most of the players included here. With each defender going into his age-33 season, however, the standouts’ ability to command big contracts is certainly not what it once was.
In terms of possible destinations, not every team is represented equally. Some teams will bring more needs and cap space into this year’s marketplace than others. With some help from Adam La Rose, here is this year’s PFR top 50 free agents list, along with potential landing spots for each player.
As the 49ers did two years ago with Trent Williams, the Chiefs will let Brown hit the market. This could end up benefiting the veteran tackle, who was offered a deal with an average annual value north of Williams’ tackle-record $23MM per year before last July’s franchise tag deadline. Citing insufficient guarantees, Brown turned it down. Kansas City’s offer did contain a bloated final year to bump up the AAV to $23.1MM, but will Brown – a quality left tackle but not a top-shelf option at the position – do as well this year? He will soon find out.
Brown has now made four Pro Bowls and carries positional versatility that would intrigue were he open to a return to right tackle, which by all accounts he is not. The 363-pound blocker can struggle against speed-rusher types, but he is set to be the rare accomplished left tackle in his prime to hit the market. The Chiefs sent a package including a first-round pick to the Ravens for Brown, whose bet on himself led to a $16.6MM tag and an open market. The bidding will run high, though it might not reach the places the Williams pursuit did in 2021.
The Chiefs’ exclusive negotiating rights with Brown end March 13; they have had nearly two years to complete a deal. The market will determine if the league views the sixth-year blocker as an elite-level left tackle or merely a good one. Then again, bidding wars drive up the prices for O-linemen on the market. O-line salary records have fallen four times (Williams, Corey Linsley, Joe Thuney, Brandon Scherff) in free agency since 2021. This foray could give Brown the guaranteed money he seeks, and it puts the Chiefs at risk of seeing their two-year left tackle depart. The Ravens also passed on this payment back in 2021, in part because they already had Ronnie Stanley on the payroll.
The defending champions have Brown and right tackle Andrew Wylie eligible for free agency; some of their leftover funds from the Tyreek Hill trade went to Brown’s tag. Although some among the Chiefs were frustrated Brown passed on last year’s offer, the team will be hurting at a premium position if he walks. Given the importance the blindside position carries, fewer teams are in need compared to right tackle. The Titans losing Taylor Lewan and continuing to clear cap space could point to a run at Brown, though the team has a few needs up front. The Jets likely have needs at both tackle spots. Would the Bears relocate Braxton Jones to the right side? Ryan Poles was with the Chiefs when they traded for Brown, and the Bears could outmuscle anyone for cap space.
Teams in need of right tackles will participate in one of the more interesting markets in recent memory. Above-average-to-good offensive linemen do well in free agency annually, and this year will send three experienced right tackles in their prime to the market. A five-year starter in San Francisco and former top-10 pick, McGlinchey has a good case as the best of this lot. The five-year vet’s run-blocking craft eclipses his pass-protection chops exiting Year 5, but he will walk into a competitive market. The former Notre Dame left tackle should have a lucrative deal in place during next week’s legal tampering period.
Although mutual interest existed regarding a second 49ers-McGlinchey agreement, John Lynch acknowledged the only viable path for McGlinchey to stay in San Francisco would be his market underwhelming. That seems unlikely, so right tackle-seeking teams – and there are a handful – will jockey for the sixth-year veteran. McGlinchey turned 28 in January, making this his obvious window to cash in. He rated fifth in ESPN’s run block win rate stat last season, bouncing back from the quadriceps injury that ended his 2021 season.
There is no shortage of Kyle Shanahan– or Sean McVay-influenced schemes around the league. The Bears employ Luke Getsy as their play-caller; Getsy worked for Shanahan/McVay tree branch Matt LaFleur, and the Bears’ cap space dwarfs every other team’s. After fielding a shaky O-line (on a team full of substandard position groups), Chicago needs a better idea of Justin Fields’ trajectory. Outbidding the field for the top right tackle available is a good start. The Patriots want a right tackle – on a line without a big contract presently – and the Raiders might have a say here as well. In need at multiple O-line spots, Las Vegas will have cash as well if it passes on a big QB investment.
Best fits: Bears, Patriots, Raiders
3. Jawann Taylor, T. Age in Week 1: 26
As expected, the Jaguars took Evan Engram off the market via the franchise tag. The tight end tag being $7MM cheaper than the $18.2MM offensive lineman tag always pointed Taylor toward free agency, and after never missing a start in four Duval County seasons, Taylor will be tough for the Jags to retain. They already drafted Walker Little in the 2021 second round, and no team that is currently paying a left tackle top-10 money (Cam Robinson is seventh) has a top-10 right tackle contract on the books. Taylor is expected to land at least a top-10 right tackle deal, with a $17MM-AAV figure being floated. That would place the former Florida Gator in the top five at the position, depending on how McGlinchey fares next week.
Taylor resembles the genre of player that usually populates the top of a position’s free agency market: a dependable performer who checks in below the top tier at his job. Taylor enjoyed his strongest year in his platform campaign. The former second-round pick dropped his hold count from 11 in 2021 to two in 2022. While PFF charged Taylor with five sacks allowed, Football Outsiders measured his blown-block rate at a career-low 1.3%. Offering a disparate skillset compared to McGlinchey, Taylor has fared better as a pass protector than in the run game. PFF slotted him as a top-10 pass protector among right tackles but viewed him as a dismal run-blocker.
The Jags have presumably made Taylor an offer, but other teams will probably top it. The Dolphins gave Terron Armstead a five-year, $75MM deal in 2022 but have needed a right tackle ever since Ja’Wuan James’ 2019 exit. They were forced to start in-season pickup Brandon Shell for much of the year and have cleared more than $45MM in cap space over the past two days. The team just picked up Tua Tagovailoa‘s fifth-year option, and the league’s lone southpaw starting QB needs better blindside protection after a season in which he suffered at least two concussions. Overspending on O-linemen is not the Patriots’ M.O., but they have a need at right tackle and do not have big dollars devoted to quarterback or any position up front. New England is on the hunt for a right tackle upgrade, and the team’s 2021 free agency showed it would spend when it deemed expenditures necessary.
The quarterback market cleared up this week, seeing Geno Smith and Daniel Jones extended and Derek Carr’s lengthy street free agency stretch end with $70MM in practical guarantees. Garoppolo’s injury history will affect his value, but teams kind of make it a priority to staff this position. The former Super Bowl starter is in his prime and on the market for the first time. How high this market goes will depend on what the Raiders want and what Aaron Rodgers decides.
The 49ers’ 12-game win streak that included Brock Purdy’s stunning displays began with Garoppolo at the controls. Guiding San Francisco to four straight wins, Garoppolo was at or close to his best when he suffered a broken foot in Week 13. He sported a 7-0 TD-INT ratio during that win streak and closed the season 16th in QBR. He would have walked into a better market had the injury not occurred; the setback came after a string of health issues. He tore an ACL in 2018, missed 10 games in 2020 after an ankle sprain and was significantly limited by the end of the 2021 slate due to a three-injury season. Garoppolo’s March 2022 shoulder surgery hijacked his trade market.
Ideally for Garoppolo, Rodgers returns to Green Bay or retires. While that is looking unlikelier by the day, it would put the Jets in a desperate position following Carr’s decision. The Raiders represent the other wild card. Garoppolo would slide into Josh McDaniels’ system seamlessly, given the parties’ three-plus years together in New England. The Raiders have operated a bit more stealthily compared to the Jets; they have been connected to Rodgers, Garoppolo and rolling with a rookie. Plan C here would be a tough sell given the presences of 30-year-old skill-position players Davante Adams and Darren Waller, but Las Vegas’ plans cloud Garoppolo’s market. If the Raiders pass and Rodgers chooses the Jets, Garoppolo’s earning power could drop.
McDaniels not fancying a Garoppolo reunion opens the door for the Texans, who hired ex-49ers pass-game coordinator Bobby Slowik as OC, and others. Houston’s situation may not appeal to Garoppolo, but Slowik and Nick Caserio being in Houston make this connection too clear to ignore. The Buccaneers and Commanders are in win-now positions but are giving indications they do not want to spend much at QB. The Commanders were deep in talks for the then-49ers QB last year, however. Garoppolo will test those squads, along with the Falcons, who are entering Year 3 of the Terry Fontenot–Arthur Smith regime. The Panthers’ acquisition of the No. 1 pick likely takes them out of the running, and Carolina not being in the mix could also affect how high the Garoppolo price goes.
Bottom line, there should be enough teams interested in staffing their 2023 QB1 spots that the best free agent option should do OK no matter what happens with Rodgers.
The Buccaneers retained Carlton Davis last year, but their dire cap situation should force a Dean departure. Dean’s age/performance combination should make him this year’s top cornerback available. With corner a position of need for many teams, the former third-round pick stands to do very well. Dean has only been a full-time starter in one season, however, seeing his defensive snap share jump from 67% in 2021 to 90% last season.
Excelling in press coverage, Dean played a major role for the 2020 Super Bowl champion Bucs iteration and overtook fellow free agent Sean Murphy-Bunting last year. Dean did perform better in 2021 compared to 2022, allowing no touchdowns and limiting QBs to a collective 50.0 passer rating; those numbers shot up to four and 86.0 last season. Still, PFF rated Dean as last year’s 10th-best corner. J.C. Jackson did not break into the top five among corners upon hitting the market last year; Dean should not be expected to do so, either. But many teams will be interested.
The Patriots have paid up for a corner previously, in Stephon Gilmore (2017), but Jonathan Jones – forced to primarily play a boundary role in 2022 – wants to re-sign and will be far cheaper than Dean. The Falcons need help opposite AJ Terrell and trail only the Bears in cap space. Although a Terrell payment is coming, it can be tabled to 2024 due to the fifth-year option. The Dolphins are clearing cap space and now have a corner need, with Byron Jones no longer with the team after his missed season.
Bates stands to be one of this free agency crop’s safest bets, combining extensive experience – the final two years as a pillar for a championship threat – with a host of prime years remaining. Beginning his career at 21, the Wake Forest product has started 79 games and anchored the Bengals’ secondary for most of his tenure. The Bengals did not tag Bates for a second time, passing on a $15.5MM price. With the team planning to let Bates test the market, it looks like the sixth-year defender will leave Cincinnati.
The Bengals and Bates went through two offseasons of negotiations, ending in the 2022 tag. The Bengals have some big payments to make at higher-profile positions. Safety does not qualify as such, but Bates has been a cornerstone in Lou Anarumo’s defense and will be handsomely rewarded. Bates finished as Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 overall safety in 2020 and, after a shakier 2021 in which he admitted his contract situation affected his play, Bates came through with impact plays in the postseason. He graded as a top-25 safety, via PFF, in 2022.
Safety is one of this year’s deeper positions in free agency. Of the top 10 safety contracts, however, only one went to a free agent (Marcus Williams in 2022). Bates should be expected to join the Ravens defender, who signed for $14MM per year. It will be interesting if he can climb into the top five at the position; Justin Simmons’ $15.25MM-AAV accord sits fifth. Bates should be expected to approach or eclipse that, though moving to the Derwin James–Minkah Fitzpatrick tier will be more difficult. Still, after the Bengals offered Bates less than $17MM guaranteed last summer, he should depart for more guaranteed money.
The Browns are interested in Bates, who will cost more than John Johnson cost Cleveland two years ago (three years, $33.75MM). Clear of the record-setting Matt Ryan dead-money hit, the Falcons have cash to spend and a Terry Fontenot–Arthur Smith regime entering Year 3. The Falcons need to make progress, and they do not have much in the way of talent or costs at safety. The team has not featured much here since the Keanu Neal–Ricardo Allen tandem splintered. Bates would be a way to remedy that.
Hargrave’s third contract will almost definitely surpass the three-year, $39MM deal he signed in 2020, when he was a first-time free agent. Even though the Eagle inside-rushing maven turned 30 last month, teams will be eager to add him to their pass rush equations. A medium-term deal would appear in the offing, but the bidding should be steep for the career-long Pennsylvanian.
The former Cameron Heyward–Stephon Tuitt third wheel shined in Philly, totaling 18 QB hits in 2021 and a career-high 11.5 sacks last season. Next Gen Stats charted Hargrave with the second-most pressures (53) from a defensive tackle spot. The Eagles have most of their defense set to hit the market, just drafted Jordan Davis in Round 1 and by all accounts will enter next season with a Jalen Hurts extension on their books. The NFC champions also have Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat contracts on the payroll, opening the door to Hargrave joining another team in need of interior support.
The Lions ranked last defensively in 2022, struggling against the run and pass, and need help at just about every defensive position. They do not have a big-ticket contract on defense, and a future Aidan Hutchinson extension would not likely overlap with a monster Hargrave accord. Hargrave could help catalyze Detroit’s ascent. The Raiders brought in a host of low-cost D-tackles last year; their evergreen struggles on defense persisted. A big contract alongside Maxx Crosbyand Chandler Jones would be steep, but it would pair well with a rookie-QB salary. The Browns also effectively punted on their D-tackle need last year, and it helped cost DC Joe Woods his job. The former Jim Schwartz Eagles charge would transform Cleveland’s interior D-line.
Plugged into Vic Fangio’s 3-4 defense as an end early in his career, Jones has offered consistency as an inside rusher but never flirted with top-tier production. Hence, the Broncos’ reluctance to use the franchise tag. Jones has gone 6.5-5.5-6.5 in sacks and 11-11-10 in QB hits since 2020. But the Ohio State product was tied for fifth in pressures among interior D-linemen, per PFF, at the time he suffered a season-ending hip injury last year. There will be interested parties, even if Jones is not quite a candidate to bridge the gap between Aaron Donald ($31.7MM AAV) and a field that features no other D-tackle earning more than $21MM on average.
Jones’ Denver defensive coordinators – Fangio and Ejiro Evero – are now in Miami and Charlotte. Future commitments for each team up front could complicate Jones following one of his former bosses. The Bears outflanking the field for Jones makes sense. They dismantled their Fangio-assembled front seven in 2022, have needs everywhere up front and likely traded out of Jalen Carter territory. Matt Eberflus has placed a high value on the D-tackle spot, as shown by the Colts’ DeForest Buckner trade. The Broncos should also make an offer, though this market could lead them to move to other options. The Texans should be considered a threat here as well. Houston has not been aggressive in free agency under Nick Caserio, but the team has cap space and is a near-certainty to bring in a rookie-quarterback contract.
Despite being headed for his sixth year, Edmunds still has multiple mid-20s seasons to factor into negotiations. This early career start will benefit the youngest Edmunds brother. He will be the top player available at a deep off-ball linebacker position – a job that has been seen its stature reduced in the modern game. That said, the Bills Pro Bowler should have a nice market. Teams have paid high prices for multi-time Pro Bowl linebackers in free agency, as evidenced by C.J. Mosley’s market-shifting Jets contract in 2019.
Edmunds is a two-time Pro Bowler who has generated mixed reviews. Pro Football Focus offers such an account, grading him outside the top 50 in 2020 and ’21 but slotting the former first-rounder fifth at the position last season. PFF graded Edmunds as the league’s best coverage linebacker in 2022; this skill and Edmunds’ age will set a high price baseline. Teams will have a host of ILB options to choose from this year, and those in need at the position will need to determine whether it is worth it to pay up for Edmunds or save money by signing one of the second-tier options or using a higher draft pick on the position.
A clear dot can be connected just south of Edmunds’ current address. The Giants both have ex-Bills decision-makers – Joe Schoen, Brian Daboll – running the show, along with ex-Bills assistant John Egorugwu as linebackers coach, and they deployed one of the NFL’s worst linebacker groups last season. Edmunds would represent a major chip, but will the Giants back down due to cost? They just shelled out a big QB contract, tagged Saquon Barkley and have a monster Dexter Lawrence payment to make. The Lions and Raiders should be in the mix, too; each is seeking upgrades at nearly every defensive position
This sets up as one of the most interesting markets. Roquan Smith just raised the position’s salary ceiling to $20MM per year. Foye Oluokun, who lacked Edmunds-level accolades last year, signed for $15MM per annum (fifth among ILBs). The positional surplus should affect Buffalo’s 6-foot-5 ‘backer, but top-five ILB money could still await thanks to his experience, performance level and age.
Known previously for solid slot work and agitating certain wide receivers (including ex-teammate Michael Thomas) to the point various punches came his way, Gardner-Johnson tied for the 2022 interception lead. Both he and Justin Simmons notched six thefts despite each missing five games. Gardner-Johnson managed this at a new position, being moved to safety just before beginning his Eagles season.
Versatility should help his cause, though playing safety would benefit Gardner-Johnson contractually – as slot corners continue to be underpaid – during his first free agency bid. Chris Harris and Kenny Moore’s quests at raising the slot salary ceiling did not cross the finish line, and Gardner-Johnson could not secure the extension he sought in New Orleans. But he delivered multiple solid seasons as the Saints’ slot presence. Tyrann Mathieu toggling between safety and slot responsibilities benefited him in 2019, when the Chiefs gave him a then-record three-year, $42MM deal. Gardner-Johnson is younger than Mathieu was at that point and stands to do very well.
While Hargrave and James Bradberry’s free agency defections would sting the Eagles, each of those defenders are headed for age-30 seasons. Gardner-Johnson does not turn 26 until December; his best seasons should lie ahead. The Eagles have three of their five DB starters, both three-down linebackers and three core D-linemen headed for free agency. This will present an intriguing test for GM Howie Roseman. Gardner-Johnson will probably be the player the acclaimed GM prioritizes most. It seems the Eagles will need to outbid the competition, seeing as they could not work out an extension in the months leading up to free agency and passed on using an affordable franchise tag.
The Cardinals depended on Murphy over the past two seasons, doing little to address their post-Patrick Peterson cornerback situation. Even with Peterson still in the fold from 2019-20, Murphy was a vital performer in Arizona. The decision-makers who placed Murphy as the Cards’ top cover man are gone, however, and the former No. 33 overall pick will be one of the more interesting free agents available.
Murphy has age, experience and versatility on his side. The 5-foot-11 defender was essential during the Cardinals’ 2021 playoff campaign, being by far Arizona’s best corner and helping a defense down J.J. Watt to a sixth-place DVOA finish. The ex-Washington Husky is also coming off an injury-limited slate, one in which he missed eight games. A back injury downed Murphy in early November, and he missed one of the worst stretches in Cardinals history.
Functioning as a Chris Harris-type chip in playing a boundary role and moving inside regularly, Murphy should be able to command considerable cash ahead of an age-25 season. After looking like a bit of a sleeper not long ago, the 5-foot-11 defender now seems poised to cost No. 1 corner-level money. Having none of their 2022 top three corners under contract, the Vikings could both use a slot defender and outside presence. Adding Murphy would give Brian Flores options. Would the Cardinals stay in the bidding despite the decision-makers who drafted Murphy being out of the picture?
McGary’s age drops him below Taylor, and his iffy performance level prior to a well-timed breakout slate leaves him below the other 28-year-old gem in this right tackle class. This market stands to generate the most intrigue, with McGary not presenting McGlinchey-level consistency but bringing a first-round pedigree and a 62-start sample size. The Washington product could generate mixed reviews from teams, but given his 2022 showing at a position often difficult to fill, this does not look like a “prove it” deal situation. A big-ticket multiyear offer should await.
McGary lined up alongside guard dynamo Chris Lindstrom, the better of the Falcons’ two 2019 first-round picks on the O-line, and the latter’s contract could affect the former’s standing with the team. The Falcons also have left tackle Jake Matthews signed through 2026 at the league’s fifth-highest rate ($18.5MM per year). McGary graded as PFF’s No. 4 overall tackle, riding an elite pass-blocking campaign to this free agency perch. He is a ways removed from allowing a staggering 13 sacks as a rookie. The Falcons declined McGary’s fifth-year option last May, opening themselves up to the 6-foot-6 blocker walking.
The Broncos have brought astounding turnover at right tackle, fielding 10 Week 1 right tackles in 10 seasons, and McGary may be a bit more affordable compared to the top two right-siders. Although their Ja’Wuan James investment proved a major misstep, the Broncos’ evergreen need would point to it trying to upgrade via this intriguing right tackle class. Ex-Falcons O-line coach Chris Morgan is now the Bears’ O-line instructor. If Chicago does not want to pay up for McGlinchey or Taylor, McGary would make sense opposite Braxton Jones’ rookie deal.
Joining Hargrave as a Steelers draftee to enter this market in strong position to score a third-contract raise, Sutton profiles as Pittsburgh’s top UFA priority. The team that has T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick signed to top-market contracts at their respective positions assembled an inexpensive cornerback corps – both in terms of cost and draft capital – last year. No Pittsburgh corner was a first- or second-round pick, nor was one tied to a deal north of $5MM per year. Although the Steelers could deviate and devote a first- or second-rounder to a corner (something they have not done since 2016), they can retain Sutton after a strong contract year.
Posting extensive experience outside and in the slot, Sutton has lined up primarily as a boundary defender over the past two seasons. He finished in the top five in passer rating allowed as the closest defender, per Next Gen Stats, last season (among corners) and ended the year with a career-high 15 passes defensed. This will likely be Sutton’s last shot at an upper-crust cornerback contract; it will take much more than the two-year, $9MM pact the Steelers gave him in March 2021 to close the deal this time. Given his six Steelers years, Sutton checks boxes to be Pittsburgh’s No. 1 corner for the immediate future.
The J.J. Watt sidekick will ride his quality contract year into the market’s upper reaches, and the Cardinals may soon be faced with losing both. Not quite a top-market player, Allen should be compensated in the upper middle class. He established career-high marks in sacks (5.5), tackles for loss (10) and QB hits (20). In Watt fashion, the younger Cardinals defensive end led all NFL D-linemen with eight passes batted down. It took Allen a bit to get going (nine QB hits through two seasons), but the former third-round pick should move into eight-figure-per-year territory soon.
Hints of “prove it” energy may come from teams as Allen tests the market, but with Payne out of the mix, the Boston College product will join Dre’Mont Jones as the best young interior D-linemen available. The Cardinals losing Allen would mean in the past three offseasons they will have said goodbye to he, Watt, Chandler Jones and Haason Reddick. That would be quite the reboot, but the Cards’ new regime does want to re-sign Allen. Arizona is light on defender contracts outside of Budda Baker, and it remains to be seen if the new front office will share the old one’s affinity for off-ball linebackers when it comes time to pay Isaiah Simmons.
Vance Joseph coached Allen throughout his Cardinals career. It would be easy to see the Broncos HC-turned-DC tab him as a Jones consolation prize. Denver has a midlevel D-tackle contract on the books already (D.J. Jones), but with an interest in retaining Dre’Mont Jones, Allen could slide into Joseph’s defense as the team’s top interior rusher. The Texans will come in with more cash; will they deviate from the lower-middle-class two-year deal structure that populated Nick Caserio’s first Houston payrolls? Several suitors should be there for Allen, putting him in position to move toward Watt’s $14MM AAV.
One of the biggest beneficiaries from his position’s market, Meyers stands to go from a player who set a record for most career receiving yards without a touchdown to one who should easily command more than $10MM annually. The former Patriots UDFA ranks just inside the top 30 in receiving yards since 2020 (2,399); his yards per catch rankings in those seasons: 58th, 88th, 58th. The YPC numbers will cap Meyers’ ceiling. He would be an unappealing prize for a team seeking a No. 1 target, as the Patriots were not exactly the envy of most teams regarding aerial production post-Tom Brady.
Mac Jones’ numbers cratered without Meyers on the field, however, and the reliable Patriot (well, except for one infamous decision) ranked ninth in drop rate since becoming a regular in 2020. The intermediate target went until his third season before scoring a touchdown, but he tallied six for a disjointed Pats passing attack in 2022. Route-running chops have helped Meyers compensate for a lack of plus separation skills. The Pats would miss the 2019 post-draft find were he to leave, but they will face competition for his services. It will be interesting to see how much competition, as teams might become concerned about an overpayment here.
A reunion with Caserio should be monitored; Meyers would help whichever rookie QB Houston lands. Then again, the Texans will still need to be on the hunt for a No. 1 receiver if they sign the 200-pound free agent. The Falcons giving Desmond Ridder or their next QB a No. 2 option, to complement Drake London and Kyle Pitts’ rookie contracts, should also be on the radar. Atlanta has higher-priority spots to fill, but if a rookie QB is en route, Meyers would make for a nice target while said passer acclimates. After the Panthers sent D.J. Moore to the Bears, checking off Chicago’s wideout need, and they now qualify as a team that could use a receiver to aid a young quarterback.
The Eagles’ ledger of unsigned starters makes Bradberry’s controversial holding call look more damaging. The NFL’s best roster could lose many key contributors. Bradberry looks like a player the Eagles will let walk, but his value-rehabilitation season – the Super Bowl LVII-altering penalty notwithstanding – will lead to a much better deal than the one-year, $7.25MM pact the Eagles gave him. The Giants gave Bradberry a three-year, $45MM accord in 2020. It might be difficult for the ex-Panthers draftee to eclipse that, but he should come close even at 30.
Corners at or north of 30 have a fairly low value ceiling, Darrelle Revis’ Jets windfall aside. In 2022, the Colts gave Stephon Gilmore two years and $20MM. The Steelers gave Joe Haden a two-year extension worth $11MM-plus on average ahead of his age-30 season. The best-case scenario for Bradberry would probably be teammate Darius Slay’s terms upon being traded in 2020 (when he was 29): three years, $50MM. This free agent corner class is not especially deep, but that price might still be tough for the zone-based cover man to fetch.
Bradberry enjoyed the best possible circumstances in 2022, playing opposite Slay and behind a pass rush that threatened the 1984 Bears’ single-season sack record. Jonathan Gannon’s team needs help at corner, especially if it cannot re-sign Byron Murphy, as does ex-Giants DC Patrick Graham’s team, which has Rock Ya-Sin hitting the market and has seemed undermanned at corner since … Nnamdi Asomugha‘s exit? The Lions need a proven player here, and Bradberry’s experience would benefit an up-and-coming team. It will depend on what team swings big for Jamel Dean, but Bradberry should land on his feet and collect another lucrative medium-term contract.
The Cowboys kept Schultz off the market via the franchise tag last year. Although they are using the tag for a sixth straight year, Tony Pollard became the priority. Dallas is likely to let Schultz hit the market; he turned down an extension offer this offseason. With Evan Engram off the table, Schultz should be well-positioned to tack on a quality contract to the money he banked via the tag last year. This is a position at which Austin Hooper once set the AAV record as a free agent (in 2020).
Schultz bailed the Cowboys out after their Blake Jarwin deal fizzled due to the previous Jason Witten heir apparent’s injuries. A former fourth-round pick, Schultz eclipsed 800 receiving yards in 2021 and re-emerged down the stretch last year. The Boise State product did not display much of a rapport with Cooper Rush, but once Dak Prescott returned from his thumb injury, Schultz showcased his best stuff again. He popped for seven catches, 95 yards and two touchdowns in the Cowboys’ wild-card romp in Tampa.
The Panthers have sought a reliable tight end since Greg Olsen’s foot injuries recurred in the late 2010s. Others will be in the mix as well. The Chargers now employ both Kellen Moore as OC and ex-Cowboys tight ends coach Doug Nussmeier, and the Packers need to give Jordan Love (their presumptive 2023 QB) more help. PFF charting Schultz as the 12th-best run blocker among tight ends will help ensure he cashes in.
Another Eagle who should do better on his third contract compared to his second (three years, $15.92MM), Seumalo has an argument as this free agency contingent’s top guard. The Eagles previously paid up to take care of their own, as extensions for the likes of Lane Johnson, Jason Kelce, Brandon Brooks and Jordan Mailata showed. It appears Seumalo is headed out the door. PFF rated Seumalo 10th at guard in 2022 and has slotted him in the top 30 in five of the past six seasons. It is time for the Oregon State alum to cash in for years of grunt work on the Eagles’ top-flight front.
Injuries will affect Seumalo’s market, but they should not define it. The former third-round Eagles draftee missed 14 games in 2021 and seven in 2020, going down with a knee injury and then a Lisfranc issue. Re-emerging for a 20-start season should re-establish Seumalo’s market, and the Eagles not extending him before the league year begins will move more than $7MM onto their 2023 cap due to void years. The Eagles have a potential solution in Cam Jurgens, should Jason Kelce come back to stay at center. Kelce retiring would create an interior O-line need for the NFC champs.
Elgton Jenkins’ $17MM-per-year Packers extension took the top guard off the market, but proven starters do well here annually. Brandon Scherff set a then-guard record in free agency last year; Joe Thuney did so in 2021. Laken Tomlinson’s three-year, $40MM pact would be a somewhat reasonable Seumalo comp, as the ex-49er had also played out an extension. Shane Steichen‘s Philly-to-Indy move notwithstanding, the Colts rarely dive deep into the free agency pool. And Quenton Nelson is attached to a guard-record contract. If Seumalo’s market does not escalate to this level, however, Steichen’s team should investigate. Mark Glowinski‘s exit stung. The Titans top their division rival’s need here, potentially preparing to replace four starters. Good guards walk into seller’s markets. An upper-middle-class deal should be Seumalo’s floor.
Powers has gone from being in a competition to win a starting job in his contract year to a sought-after interior blocker. The Ravens have veteran deals at left tackle, right guard and right tackle and a franchise tag at quarterback, pointing Powers to the market. A former fourth-round pick with starter experience in three seasons, Powers allowed just one sack on 633 pass-blocking snaps in 2022.
The Ravens have moved on from a few starting O-linemen in recent years. They let Kelechi Osemele defect to the Raiders, allowed Ryan Jensen to join the Buccaneers, traded Orlando Brown Jr. to the Chiefs and did not retain Bradley Bozeman. This trend should lead Powers out of Baltimore, too. Powers graded as PFF’s second-best pass-blocking guard last season, though the advanced metrics site did not think much of his run-blocking. That said, ESPN’s run block win rate graded Powers second overall at guard.
Alex Cappa and Austin Corbett each signed for $8.75MM per year in 2022, while Laken Tomlinson received $13.3MM on average. The latter brought a better track record; a deal in between these recent accords — perhaps closer to Tomlinson’s — will be logical for Powers.
Perhaps not supplying the ceiling Powers may offer, Risner represents a set-it-and-forget-it starter. He operated as such throughout his Broncos tenure, as every other position on Denver’s front went through changes. The Broncos rolled out Risner for 62 starts; he missed just four games over the course of his rookie deal. Denver has needs at center and right tackle; it could soon feature one at left guard.
The Broncos have made it clear they would prefer to keep Dre’Mont Jones. Jones planning to test the market could reopen the door for Risner to stay in his home state, but the Broncos also have Quinn Meinerz – a George Paton-era draftee who was their best O-lineman last season – to take care of in 2024.
Risner’s track record should allow him to jump from a four-year rookie contract to a long-term veteran deal that would set him up financially. Run block win rate slotted the Colorado native 10th last season, and PFF has graded him as a plus pass protector over the past two years. A deal that reaches $10MM-plus per year is not out of the question for the former second-round pick.
Were the fifth-year option not included in Davenport’s rookie contract, he might have done better last year in free agency. In 2021, the former first-rounder totaled nine sacks and 16 QB hits in just 11 games. In 2022: a half-sack and eight hits in 15. Davenport would bring considerable risk on a long-term deal. A two- or three-year pact would be more reasonable for a talented edge player yet to fully put it together.
Davenport has only surpassed six sacks in a season once in five years, and he benefited from rushing opposite Cameron Jordan. The power rusher does boast a top-20 pass rush win rate (17.8%) since coming into the league, and young edge players do not exactly flood this market. A team talking itself into Davenport will bank on draft status and advanced metrics, but a lack of production could stall his market.
The Chiefs just jettisoned Frank Clark and were mediocre on the edge in 2022 with him. After Jadeveon Clowney wore out his welcome in Cleveland, the Browns need another Myles Garrett sidekick. A Deshaun Watson restructure also would help the team here, though we are in uncharted territory as to what reworking that contract would do to future Cleveland payrolls. Davenport’s old position coach (Ryan Nielsen) now runs the Falcons’ defense. As for the Saints, notable payments will be difficult to come by with Derek Carr in the fold, though Mickey Loomis has managed to skirt these consequences in the past. A fresh start would probably be best for Davenport, anyway.
Teams enjoy renting Ngakoue; none has wanted to dive in for the long haul. The former third-round pick and “Sacksonville” bastion has bounced to five teams in six seasons, going from Jacksonville to Minnesota to Baltimore to Las Vegas to Indianapolis. The Raiders gave Ngakoue the most notable contract of his career – two years, $26MM – and he has continued to produce as a pass rusher. Ngakoue profiles as a rotational presence, but the lack of supply around the league should allow for another starting role for the one-dimensional performer.
Like the ability to mash right-handed pitching, Ngakoue’s skill is valuable. He is the only player with six seasons of at least eight sacks in each of the past six years. The nomadic sack artist has 21 forced fumbles in that span. Amid a disastrous Colts season, Ngakoue remained hard at work, registering 9.5 sacks and 27 pressures. The experienced rusher would be an intriguing fit as a No. 2 edge presence somewhere. His market may have taken a hit this week, however, with Frank Clark hitting free agency and the Rams cutting Leonard Floyd.
After falling just short in their attempt to retain Von Miller, the Rams suffered on the edge. Beyond Floyd, they had no edge player register more than one sack. Post-Floyd, they will be shopping for edges via trade, free agency and the draft. The Chiefs chasing a cheaper (and more consistent) pass rusher after cutting Clark would add up as well; the champs rely too much on Chris Jones’ interior dominance. The 49ers would likely not submit the highest offer, but they do provide an opportunity to rush opposite Nick Bosa. Ngakoue could thrive as a Bay Area sidekick.
The ex-Steelers slot predictably rebounded with the Chiefs, and he cashed in on millions via incentives on a “prove it” pact. Now, it will be time for Kansas City to either compensate its newfound top wide receiver or for Smith-Schuster to see what his year with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes did for his market value. A second Kansas City pact may come down to how much of a hometown discount Smith-Schuster is willing to take.
Antonio Brown’s former wingman careened off course following the mercurial superstar’s Pittsburgh exit, and Smith-Schuster’s 1,400-plus-yard 2018 still looks like an outlier. His ghastly yards-per-reception numbers from 2020-21 revealed both a limited player and a declining quarterback. Going from an aging Ben Roethlisberger to the league’s premier signal-caller reinvigorated Smith-Schuster, who posted 933 receiving yards – his second-best career total – to lead Chiefs wideouts. He will likely be able to do much better than the one-year, $8MM deal he inked with the Steelers in 2021 or the incentive-laden 2022 agreement that brought him to Missouri.
This year’s modest receiver market will drive up Smith-Schuster’s value, though a team hoping for WR1-caliber results would likely be disappointed. The Chiefs will need to consider aiming for a No. 1-type target in the not-too-distant future, with their passing game’s potency partially tied to a soon-to-be 34-year-old tight end. For now, however, running it back with Travis Kelce, Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and whatever the injury-prone Kadarius Toney can provide makes sense for the Super Bowl champions. Smith-Schuster should be able to collect eight figures per year. Will he get that from the Chiefs?
The player exchanged for Ngakoue last March also may be bound to relocate again. How free agency unfolds for Dean, Sutton and Bradberry will play a role in determining Ya-Sin’s route. The former Colts second-rounder missed six games last season and has not played more than 13 since his 2019 rookie year. Bradberry and Marcus Peters being set for age-30 seasons helps Ya-Sin’s cause. Even with Dean and Sutton in the fold, the Temple product will do well.
Were Matt Rhule still in the league, pegging Ya-Sin to the Panthers – the former nest for mid-2010s Owls – would be easy. Corner resides as one of the few positions the Bears do not desperately need, though Matt Eberflus was with the Colts when Ya-Sin arrived in Indy and coached him for three seasons. The Colts deemed him expendable ahead of Gus Bradley’s first season. PFF rated Ya-Sin 50th among corners last season. A lack of young cornerback talent should allow for Ya-Sin to collect more guaranteed cash on his second contract.
Trending from superstar to malcontent to an injury-prone “what if?” case, Beckham did the right thing by not returning too soon. Taking extra time to rehab will be beneficial for what might be his last shot at a notable NFL contract. Teams may throw out short-term offers, but Beckham wanted a multiyear deal – at an unreasonable rate – during his in-season sweepstakes that ultimately went bust. This stands to be one of the most unusual cases in recent free agency history.
Beckham turned 30 in November and has suffered two ACL tears since November 2020. But he rebounded from the first one effectively, completing a late-season surge that boosted the Rams to Super Bowl LVI. Beckham’s two-catch, 50-yard first half helped Los Angeles win that game, and while his second tear led to 2022 hiatus, this year’s iffy receiver class will help the oft-discussed pass catcher. Beckham does not make sense for a team in transition; he is a hired gun. There will be teams who would be OK with that arrangement, provided they are confident he has recovered from tear No. 2.
OBJ-Cowboys connections will resurface; Dallas wanting another weapon will fuel that fire. That would help compensate for the likely Dalton Schultz exit, giving Dak Prescott another CeeDee Lamb complement. A more intriguing destination: Kansas City. In his Rams form, Beckham is a more dangerous Kelce complement than Smith-Schuster. But it cannot be assumed that is what OBJ would deliver, and the Chiefs already have a high-variance wideout in Kadarius Toney. The Bills kicking the tires again would add up as well, though Beckham would not be the best remedy for the inconsistency Buffalo’s non-Stefon Diggs wideouts brought. The Rams missed Beckham in 2022, but they have other issues to address than potentially overpaying a WR2.
Regardless of this endgame, it will be fascinating to see how teams approach OBJ in this market.
If it was not clear prior to Mike McDaniel scaling back his role in 2022, Gesicki is not a good blocker. The Dolphins still made the curious decision to tag him at $10.9MM, resist trade overtures and effectively drain a season from his prime. Gesicki drew a flabbergasting 52 targets – tied for 125th in the league and an sitting 28th among tight ends – last season, making the news that he plans to leave in free agency a rather predictable conclusion.
Schultz’s superior blocking chops and skills as a pass catcher will make him the top tight end available, barring 11th-hour cuts. But more than one team needs help at this position, which has become tough to rely upon for receiving production. Profiling as a big wideout, Gesicki supplies it. He combined for 1,483 yards from 2020-21; only four tight ends bettered that during that span.
The 6-foot-6 pass catcher’s exit will dent the Dolphins at this position, but they could join other teams in weighing whether it is worth moving out of free agency’s shallow end here or waiting for what NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah called the best tight end draft class in 10 years. Tight ends are notorious slow developers, however. With C.J. Uzomah and Will Dissly collecting $8MM per year in 2022, Gesicki will be aiming higher. The Giants did not replace Evan Engram in 2022, and the Lions will have a need post-T.J. Hockenson – in an offense that does not feature a veteran receiver contract.
It took a three-year, $18MM deal for the Bengals to land the ex-Saint in 2020. After Bell became a key contributor during the best stretch in Bengals history, he should be a candidate to stay in Cincinnati as a cheaper alternative to giving Jessie Bates a near-top-shelf pact – something the franchise has effectively indicated it does not wish to do. Bell should be available on another midlevel contract, but prime years remaining will make the eighth-year defender a nice second-tier prize on the market.
Bengals DC Lou Anarumo did not want to entertain the notion of both Bates and Bell departing; that is a lot of snaps to lose for a Bengals team that has deployed one of the better safety duos during the 2020s. Cincy has Dax Hill presumably stepping into one of the first-string roles, but the AFC North champs would need to make other arrangements were Bell to follow Bates out the door.
Bell snared a career-high four INTs last season and has missed one game in the past three years. Further illustrating Bell’s dependability, PFF slotted the ex-second-rounder as a top-25 option at the position from 2020-21 and placed him 35th in ’22. His 12 tackles for loss since 2020 rank sixth among safeties. Bell will be targeting a raise from his $6MM-per-year agreement and should get it. Last year’s Marcus Maye–Jordan Whitehead deals checked in just south of $8MM per year; that can be considered a safe floor here. Even as the Bengals prepare for big payments on offense, that should not be viewed as out of their price range. They greenlit a $12.9MM Bates tag in 2022 and hold more than $34MM in cap space.
Poyer has gone from seventh-round Eagles draftee to cornerstone presence in one of the modern NFL’s top turnaround efforts. Poyer signed two Bills contracts – a four-year, $13MM pact as a free agent in 2017 and a two-year, $19MM extension in 2020 – that ensured he and Micah Hyde remained one of the NFL’s best safety tandems. The second Buffalo deal may have hurt Poyer’s earning potential, though his ballhawk reputation (22 INTs in six Bills seasons, including nine from 2021-22) and role in Buffalo’s Sean McDermott-era ascent will still bring interest.
A first-team All-Pro in 2021, Poyer missed five games in 2022. That, his 32nd birthday approaching and a host of starter-level safeties hitting free agency will impact his value. The Vikings gave Harrison Smith a four-year, $64MM extension ahead of his age-32 season in 2021, but Poyer is not quite in that class. The Saints signed Tyrann Mathieu on a three-year, $27MM pact in May 2022, ahead of his age-31 season. Poyer should still do well on a medium-term accord, and the Bills could use him back.
Buffalo has Matt Milano signed locked into a team-friendly deal at linebacker; keeping Poyer over Tremaine Edmunds also makes sense because of the AFC East kingpins’ safety situation. Hyde is also 32 and coming off an injury that ended his season in September. Damar Hamlin’s inspirational recovery is not guaranteed to produce a return. Poyer would represent reliable insurance.
Injury questions surround Chark, who will turn 27 in September. He suffered a fractured ankle early in 2021, allowing him to miss much of the Urban Meyer madness. But the ex-Jaguars second-rounder injured the same ankle in September of last year. Upon returning for a rejuvenated Lions attack, Chark posted three 90-plus-yard games in a four-week stretch and showcased some of the deep speed that figures to garner him attention on the market.
This market’s makeup will benefit Chark. Odell Beckham Jr. turns 31 this year and brings extensive question marks, while Jakobi Meyers is more possession target than deep separator. JuJu Smith-Schuster’s skillset also differs from the 6-foot-4 Chark’s. As such, Chark could have a nice market when his injury past would otherwise caution against a notable commitment. Chark totaled 1,008 yards with Gardner Minshew at the helm in 2019 and topped 700 for a 1-15 Jags squad a year later.
The Buccaneers both did their eight-year tackle a favor by releasing him more than a week before free agency and boosted the market. Right tackle still presents more depth, but blindside-seeking teams now have Orlando Brown Jr. (for left tackle-needy teams with money) and Smith (for the rest) available. Smith is the second-longest-tenured left tackle in Bucs history, and he should still have a few years left. Playing a premium position, that should translate to free agency interest.
Smith signed three Bucs contracts from 2015-21 – his rookie deal and respective accords worth $13.75MM and $15MM per year – and he has 124 career starts on his resume. Washington gave Charles Leno a three-year, $37MM extension less than a year after the Bears cut him. Leno was 30 when he signed that deal. D.J. Humphries signed a three-year, $51MM Cardinals extension at 29. Smith has excelled more as a pass protector than run-blocking presence; fortunately, the former skill is more valuable at his position.
Teams plan ahead more at left tackle than they do on the other side, leaving fewer vacancies. Smith could be a much cheaper Brown replacement for the Chiefs. The Jets have big questions at tackle, with Duane Brown turning 38 this year and Mekhi Becton one of the league’s least reliable players. The Titans just released Taylor Lewan; it would surprise if a team that (for now, at least) remains committed to Ryan Tannehill would not inquire on Smith. The Steelers have given Dan Moore two seasons; Smith would be an upgrade.
The Packers’ attempt to vault Lazard from a No. 3 wideout to a No. 1 piece predictably backfired, and it will be fair to question how the 6-foot-5 target would fare without Aaron Rodgers at the controls. Long praised by the future Hall of Fame quarterback, Lazard will not be this market’s wide receiver prize. But he will not be lacking for interest, either.
Even in a wildly disappointing Green Bay season, Lazard cleared his previous career yardage high by more than 200. He totaled 788 and has 14 touchdown receptions since 2021. The Iowa State product’s lack of separation ability will cap his value, but PFF graded him a top-10 run-blocking wideout in 2022. Teams do not shell out big cash for the latter skill, but it will help sell Lazard to a franchise in need of a supplementary talent with a consistent track record of finding the end zone.
The Titans would need Kyle Philips to come through in the slot were they to pair Lazard with Treylon Burks, and the Ravens’ past issues with convincing higher-caliber receivers to join their run-crazed attack could lead them to a Lazard-level performer. The volume of Rodgers-Big Apple smoke would connect Lazard to the Jets. He would come slightly cheaper than Corey Davis, whom the team could cut to create $10MM in cap space. A deal north of Tim Patrick’s three-year, $30MM accord would be a reasonable Lazard target.
As the Eagles doled out payments and made trades to bolster their other defensive positions, they relied on a former UDFA to anchor their second level. The plan became cost-effective for the NFC champions, who have three-fourths of their defense up for free agency. Considering Edwards’ position and his undrafted status, he will need to strike now. It should be expected he will price himself out of Philly, though the top Eagles linebacker wants to stay.
The Eagles non-tendered Alex Singleton as an RFA last year, keeping Edwards in place. The latter rewarded the team with a 159-tackle campaign that included 10 tackles for loss, in the top 10 among off-ball linebackers, along with two sacks and seven passes defensed. PFF slotted Edwards sixth at the position, a year after assigning him a top-10 grade. That assessment has not meant an automatic path to free agency dollars, as Alexander Johnson’s path showed last year, but three-down ‘backers are valuable. Edwards is one of the best available.
The NFL is sending both its Connor McGoverns into free agency. This scenario will be ripe for photo misidentification, but the elder of the forever-linked interior O-linemen will be in better position. The Mizzou product played all 1,114 Jets offensive snaps last season; another McGovern-Jets agreement would be sensible.
Brought over from the Broncos in 2020, McGovern missed just two games as a Jet. He inked a three-year, $27MM deal that ended up benefiting a team that experienced issues everywhere else up front during his tenure. The stability McGovern provided would be valuable to a team that believes it is on the cusp of a spectacular quarterback upgrade and one set to welcome back a talented running back (Breece Hall) coming off ACL surgery.
Will the Jets be willing to do another $9MM-AAV contract here? They only have one upper-echelon O-line contract on the books (Laken Tomlinson’s), and other teams will be in need at center. The Seahawks and Texans just saw their starters retire, with the Cardinals expecting Rodney Hudson to follow suit. This exodus will benefit McGovern, but there are other snapping options available as well.
There for both Derrick Henry rushing titles, Davis has brought mixed reviews. Davis ranks as the Pro Football Focus’ No. 14 run-blocking guard from 2020-22, also helping D’Onta Foreman effectively replace Henry in 2021 as an injury-riddled Titans team clawed to the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Davis also slotted in the top 25 in ESPN’s pass block win rate metric last season. Football Outsiders charged Davis with allowing an alarming eight sacks in 2022, and ESPN classified him as below average in run block win rate.
That said, this is a soon-to-be 27-year-old guard who has been a starter throughout his career. A third-round pick out of Charlotte, Davis joined center Ben Jones as the Titans’ pillars up front during Henry’s Hall of Fame push. With Taylor Lewan frequently unavailable during this stretch and the team botching the handling of Jack Conklin (leading to a revolving door at right tackle), Davis served as a vital presence for Tennessee up front.
Davis might not be a candidate to land top-10 guard money, but Alex Cappa, James Daniels and Austin Corbett each signed three- or four-year deals averaging just more than $8MM per year in 2022. It would seem a decent bet Davis’ age and starting experience in Tennessee will allow him entry to that NFL tax bracket. Unless the Titans are keen on replacing four starting O-linemen, making a push to bring back Davis would be logical.
The Vikings’ double-Dalvin setup may be on the ropes. Kwesi Adofo-Mensahstopped short on guaranteeingDalvin Cook would return, and although the Vikings moved Dalvin Tomlinson’s void date back, they are days away from potentially losing him. The larger Dalvin will draw interest based on his run-stuffing ability, though that only goes so far on the market. The ex-Giant, however, did match his career high with 10 quarterback hits last season has been one of the game’s better interior disruptors for years.
On a third defensive coordinator in three years, Minnesota wants to retain Tomlinson. PFF has viewed the 325-pound defensive lineman as a beacon of consistency since the Giants chose him in the 2017 second round, ranking him as a top-30 interior D-lineman in each season. He also graded as a top-15 pass-rushing presence, lack of production and place on a woeful Vikings defense aside.
It took a two-year, $21MM accord ($15MM guaranteed) for the Vikes to land Tomlinson two years ago. Given his steady work, it would not surprise if he commanded similar numbers in his second crack at free agency.
Giving up their hopes to trade Floyd, the Rams threw in the towel here and sent him to the market. This both creates a massive need for Los Angeles on the edge, considering Floyd had eight more sacks than any other Rams edge last season (9-1) and it will send an experienced rusher to the market. Floyd closed his Rams tenure with 29 sacks, rebounding from an unremarkable Bears stay. He should be expected to generate a market, but teams may be skittish given how poorly Dante Fowler fared once separated from Aaron Donald.
Floyd’s four sacks after the Rams shut down Donald last season do a bit to dispel the notion he is a Donald creation. The former $16MM-per-year player also racked up two sacks in the the 2021 playoffs, including one in Super Bowl LVI, and finished in the top 20 in pressures in 2021 and ’22. The other late entry into this year’s edge market — Frank Clark — finished well behind the Rams outside ‘backer in each season. Floyd is a year older than Clark, and this market also includes a number of 30-something edges — Jadeveon Clowney, Melvin Ingram and Robert Quinn among them — so it will be on the teams to determine how much of a talent gap resides between the Floyd-Clark tier and the rest of the veteran contingent.
This situation screams “prove it” deal, but Wynn does provide plenty of experience and a first-round pedigree. The Patriots threw Wynn’s contract year off axis by moving him to right tackle early in the offseason, sliding Trent Brown to the left side after re-signing the latter on a lower-middle-class accord. The Pats ended up benching Wynn, who then regained his job before suffering a season-ending injury. A wildly disappointing walk year could make Wynn aim to use this season to regroup.
For teams that do not want to overpay Orlando Brown Jr., left tackle options are scarce. Wynn missed the Pats’ Super Bowl LIII-winning season due to injury and missed eight games in his second year. But PFF graded the Georgia product as a top-35 option in both 2019 and 2021 and slotted him 11th among tackles in 2020. The latter two seasons came after famed O-line coach Dante Scarnecchia’s retirement. A pricey “prove it” pact should await, a la Evan Engram in 2022, but Wynn’s work between his rookie year and 2022 could entice a team to offer a multiyear contract.
The Titans let some linebackers walk in free agency late in Jon Robinson’s GM tenure, not re-signing former first-round pick Rashaan Evans or multiyear starter Jayon Brown. Mediocre markets awaited each, making it tougher to place Long’s value. The “after Tremaine Edmunds” tier consists of several capable ‘backers, but Long is firmly on that plane. How many middle-class deals will be available for this lot?
When on the field, Long has been one of the league’s better off-ball linebackers over the past two years. PFF slotted the former sixth-round pick as a top-20 player at the position in each of his two starter campaigns. But Mike Vrabel even questioned Long’s future when he wondered about the four-year vet’s history with soft-tissue injuries at his season-ending press conference. Long has missed 12 games over the past two years, joining a host of Titans on that front. While PFF gave the West Virginia product a top-five assessment in terms of run defense, availability and coverage questions will affect his market.
The Giants have an Xavier McKinney contract to consider; the former second-round pick is headed into a walk year. They relied on Love during a season that featured injuries across their secondary, however, which should not make it automatic the young defender departs. How lively Love’s market is will determine his Giants future, as Big Blue is writing some big checks this offseason and has Dexter Lawrence and Andrew Thomas deals on the horizon.
After the Giants’ three-headed safety setup of McKinney, Logan Ryan and Jabrill Peppers split in 2022 – via the team cutting Ryan and Peppers leaving in free agency – Love saw his snap rate spike. He played 1,006 snaps in a contract year, helping Don Martindale’s defense stay afloat amid injuries to McKinney and Adoree’ Jackson. Martindale used Love all over the formation, and the Notre Dame alum played the second-most man coverage of any safety last season.
Love should not be considered on the Jessie Bates tier, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson will collect considerably more as well. The safety market becomes crowded after those two, with Love joining Vonn Bell and several others in similar territory. Not turning 25 until later this month, however, points to Love’s best play being on his second contract. This could create a sneaky market for the former fourth-rounder.
The Chiefs could not mold Hardman into a consistent weapon, but he has age and speed on his side. This unremarkable receiver market could entice a team to take a chance on the upside the Chiefs once saw. Hardman brings elite speed to the table and is younger than Christian Kirk was when the Jaguars gave the ex-Cardinal a stunning contract. That deal turned out to age well, because of both Kirk’s production and where the receiver market headed. Hardman will not fetch close to $18MM per year, but the Chiefs are prepared to stand down in expectation the former second-round pick will be a commodity.
Maligned for inconsistency, Hardman has three 500-plus-yard years – all as a tertiary target behind Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce and, at points, Sammy Watkins – and a returner Pro Bowl on his resume. The Chiefs did not use Hardman as a true deep threat; he hit 11.7 yards per reception in his most recent full season (2021). Hardman opened eyes as a gadget player in the Chiefs’ revamped receiving corps to start 2022, scoring five touchdowns in his final three full games prior to the season-defining groin injury.
Although it will be risky to bet a team not coached by Andy Reid and quarterbacked by Patrick Mahomes will get more out of the Georgia alum, it represents a solid wager Hardman will be a starter somewhere next season.
The Chiefs’ franchise-shifting success during Clark’s tenure notwithstanding, the trade acquisition underwhelmed during his Kansas City stay. The former Seahawks second-rounder did come through at points in K.C., particularly in the playoffs. On an edge market short on prime-years performers, Clark figures to field decent offers. Will he be viewed as a starter-caliber talent with multiple quality years left, or will his inconsistency and age slide him down to the veteran wing of this year’s market?
Yes, Clark has 13.5 postseason sacks – third all time – but he also failed to hit double digits during any of his four Kansas City seasons. Clark ranked 35th and 37th in pressures over the past two seasons, respectively, but was miscast as a No. 1 edge defender for most of his Missouri stay. The Michigan product would fit best opposite a proven pass rusher, perhaps dropping into a situational role.
Age docks edges’ value, but not to the degree of, say, corners. Chandler Jones collected $32MM guaranteed last year; Za’Darius Smith signed for $14MM on average after an injury-nullified 2021. Of the 28 edge rushers who earned at least $10MM per year in 2022, 11 were in their age-30 season or beyond that point. With enough edge needs around the league, Clark should be able to fare decently after being moved to the market this week. The Seahawks balked at giving him the $20MM-per-year contract the Chiefs did back in 2019; would they sign up for a reunion now that his price tag has dropped?
The Eagles outflank the Chiefs for potential free agency losses, but the Super Bowl champions will see several of their starters stroll into nice markets in free agency. Having successfully bounced back from a rookie-year ACL tear, Thornhill will join a glut of starter-caliber safeties set to change teams. Having signed Justin Reid last year and committed another second-round pick to the position in 2022, the Chiefs are preparing to let Thornhill walk.
After a shakier 2020, Thornhill settled down upon returning from his early-career ligament tear. PFF slotted him as a top-30 safety in each of his past two seasons. The athletic back-line defender ranked 12th in coverage at the position last year, snaring three interceptions and breaking up a career-best nine passes. Multiple teams view Thornhill as this year’s second-best safety, behind only Jessie Bates. That might be a slight reach, but suitors appear to await the Virginia alum.
Set to turn 30 in September, Jones should be affordable for teams on a midlevel deal. As Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson cashed in on their abilities, Jones toiled in the slot. The former UDFA represents one of the Patriots’ last connections to the second leg of their dynasty. Jones served as the 2017 and 2018 Super Bowl-bound Pats teams’ primary slot defender. Slot staples have seen their earnings capped, and Jones is not the player who will break that glass. But he brings the capability of lining up in the slot or on the boundary.
Jones used the 2022 season to bounce back from an injury-abbreviated 2021, and the Pats needed him to work on the outside primarily. He limited opposition to a 52.7% completion rate as the closest defender and allowed only a 73.0 passer rating. Jones had proven his slot acumen during the late 2010s and in 2020, when PFF rated him as a top-five corner. But he fortified his market last year, playing the more lucrative corner spot effectively.
Mutual interest exists here, and Jones would provide Bill Belichick’s team with a much-needed veteran – particularly now that Devin McCourty retired – to team with a collection of rookie-contract players (while keeping the Pats fully stocked with Joneses in the secondary). The Pats have sufficient cash to bring Jones back, but they bring an expansive history of letting corners walk (Jackson, Gilmore, Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan, Darrelle Revis). Jones’ market will likely need to remain reasonable for a third Pats contract to commence.
For the promise of higher ceilings DJ Chark and Mecole Hardman carry, Slayton offers more consistency. He has produced regularly – in below-average aerial circumstances. Daniel Jones did not remind of a $40MM-per-year quarterback from 2019-21, and the Giants kept trying to find Slayton replacements. After breaking through as a long-range option alongside Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard, Tate found himself on the trade block in 2022. Evidently viewed as a poor practice player by the new Giants regime, Slayton removed his proven performance escalator via a pay cut. He is now in position to sign a starter-level contract as a free agent.
The Giants had Shepard, Kadarius Toney, Wan’Dale Robinson and free agency megabust Kenny Golladay ahead of Slayton during the 2022 offseason. Brian Daboll’s staff, however, needed to turn to the former fifth-round pick after injuries, Golladay ineffectiveness and the Toney trade left little else at the position. Slayton churned out his third 700-plus-yard season, coming through for a team that – save for some late-season Isaiah Hodgins contributions – had nothing else to turn to in the passing game.
The Auburn product scored eight touchdowns as a rookie and led the Giants in receiving in 2020, outpacing Shepard and the now-franchise-tagged Evan Engram. Slayton has averaged at least 15 yards per reception in three of his four seasons. Offering the kind of consistency that is lacking in this market, Slayton is perhaps not receiving enough attention ahead of his free agency bid.
Three teams took advantage of the low franchise tag price for running backs. Although this running back free agent class remains crowded, Sanders should be at the front of the line to benefit from Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard being unavailable. Sanders delivered his best season at the right time, though he did enjoy prime circumstances in playing behind perhaps the NFL’s best offensive line and alongside rising-star dual threat Jalen Hurts. This will be an interesting market to follow.
Fournette and James Conner each inked three-year, $21MM deals in 2022, establishing a third tier for veteran backs. (Austin Ekeler is also on this tier, at $6MM per year, but the Chargers back is now wildly underpaid.) The Eagles stopped using Sanders as a receiving back early in his career, though in his one full season with Carson Wentz, Barkley’s Penn State successor totaled 509 receiving yards. Sanders’ total from 2020-22: 433. The Nittany Lions also did not use Sanders much through the air. Although Sanders’ 1,269-yard rushing season, 34 runs of 10-plus yards and back-to-back-to-back yards-per-carry slates north of 4.9 look nice, teams will need to view the four-year Eagles starter as aerially competent to offer a deal close to the franchise tag price. A deal near the Conner range would probably be acceptable here.
This is a bet on upside, with Pratt showing significant contract-year growth. While it is possible the Bengals bring Vonn Bell back due to the prospect of losing both he and Jessie Bates at safety, Logan Wilson’s platform-year presence figures to lead Pratt out of town. There are many intriguing off-ball linebackers set to be available, some who have been more consistent than Pratt. How well will the former third-round pick be viewed in a buyer’s market?
Pratt played a career-high 724 defensive snaps last season, not missing any games due to injury, but he still came off the field frequently in sub-packages. Wilson serves as the Bengals’ every-down ‘backer, being the clear long-term priority in Lou Anarumo’s defense. Pratt still registered a career-best 99 tackles (six for loss), intercepted two passes and allowed only a 62.1 passer rating as the closest defender – down 40 points from 2021. PFF graded Pratt, who intercepted Derek Carr to close out the Bengals’ first playoff win in 31 years, as a top-three coverage linebacker in 2022. A team will bet on Pratt as an every-down ‘backer soon.
Onyemata’s third contract may not quite match his second – three years, $27MM – but he showed enough on that Saints re-up to warrant more attention. The Saints should never be discounted regarding veteran additions, but their Derek Carr pursuit will not leave them much space to throw out midlevel deals. Onyemata has only played in New Orleans, lining up as a Saints starter for much of his seven-season tenure with the team. He offers a nice pass-rushing floor, though age will obviously affect the Nigerian D-lineman.
Onyemata recorded five sacks last season and 6.5 in 2020, missing just two games in those seasons. A six-game PED ban marred Onyemata’s 2021, but injuries have not been an issue. The Manitoba (Canada) alum’s 11.4% pressure rate ranks 11th among D-tackles over the past three seasons, per PFF. Multiple ex-Saints coaches have caught on around the league as well. Sean Payton is now in Denver, while Onyemata’s position coach from 2017-22 – Ryan Nielsen – became Atlanta’s DC this offseason.
The Broncos gave Shelby Harris a three-year, $27MM deal ahead of his age-30 season, and Denico Autry secured a three-year, $21.5MM Titans pact before his age-31 campaign. With those deals transpiring two years ago, Onyemata should have a reasonable shot at landing something in this range.
Key hovered on the first-round radar at points ahead of the 2018 draft, but he joined a host of Jon Gruden-era Raiders draftees to not finish out his rookie contract. The LSU product has bounced back, and last season showed he was not merely a product of teaming with Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead in San Francisco. With the Jaguars, Key worked well as a rotational rusher. Still having prime years left, Key should be a factor on an edge market with plenty of older talents.
Key only played 45% of the Jags’ defensive snaps, but he accumulated 4.5 sacks, 15 QB hits and 20 pressures. He bolstered a deep Jags pass rush, which came after a 6.5-sack, 17-hit 2021 in San Francisco. He combines a 6-foot-5 frame with inside-rushing ability. After back-to-back one-year deals, the second a $4MM Jags agreement, Key showing promise in back-to-back years should prompt teams to consider him as a starter on a multiyear pact.
Two years younger than fellow Nick Bosa supporting actor Samson Ebukam, Omenihu supplies intriguing upside as a complementary rusher with size. The 6-foot-5, 280-pound D-lineman bulked up ahead of his second season with the 49ers, who traded for him before the 2021 deadline. Teams interested may need to account for a suspension, however, after Omenihu was arrested on suspicion of domestic violence in January.
The former Texans draftee has not shown enough to warrant a long-term contract, but a midlevel multiyear deal could be in the cards. Omenihu (4.5 sacks, 16 QB hits) has delivered the 12th-best pass rush win rate among D-ends since 2021, per PFF, and his two sacks helped the 49ers put away the Seahawks in the wild-card round.
A return to the Texans makes obvious sense for Omenihu, thanks to DeMeco Ryans’ arrival, even though GM Nick Caserio did make the pre-deadline trade in 2021. But the 49ers would be losing some talent by letting both Omenihu and Ebukam walk. Then again, Kris Kocurek has shown a knack for coaxing impressive play from lower-level investments.
A few other names could land here, as some productive ILBs just missed this list, and Anthony Walker’s modest market after leaving the Colts in 2021 could be an ominous sign for Shaquille Leonard’s latest apprentice. That said, Okereke filled in as a full-time Colts linebacker – both with and without Leonard around – over the past two seasons and put up big numbers.
Perhaps still best known for Pat McAfee’s enthusiastic announcement of his third-round pick, Okereke is coming off 132- and 155-tackle seasons in Indianapolis. The Colts ranked 14th in defensive DVOA largely without Leonard in 2022, and Okereke forced two fumbles during an ultimately deflating Indy season. PFF also charted the Stanford product as having his best coverage season in 2022. It looks like a tough year to be an off-ball linebacker free agent, but the cap spike should raise up some of the second-tier options here. Okereke’s former defensive coordinator, Matt Eberflus, also needs help at linebacker.
The issues started in the spring, when Jones irked Patriots brass by indicating that he would be teaching the offense to his new quarterbacks coach. While the players and coaches would ultimately work together “in good faith,” the team was unable to overcome the shortcomings of Judge and de facto offensive coordinator MattPatricia. The duo tried a simplified approach to Sean McVay’s offense in Los Angeles, but this resulted in an incomplete and underwhelming catalogue of plays.
“A lot of guys were getting worried because when we were in the middle of camp, we were wondering what the plan was for our offense. Because we hadn’t put enough install in,” a source told the Boston Herald. “We had a couple protections, a couple core run plays, but our pass game didn’t have much in it.”
While Patricia seemed to garner most of the criticism, the Boston Herald points a finger at Judge. BillBelichick would later phase Judge out of the offense, but not before frustrations boiled over. Per the report, both Jones and Belichick got into shouting matches with the former special teams coordinator, and there were even occasions where positional coaches would have to correct Judge’s mistakes.
Ultimately, the relationships that underpinned “the offense became so strained, they engendered internal doubt” about Belichick’s decision making. The head coach was quick to make changes following the season; shortly after announcing that they’d be conducting an offensive coordinator search, the Patriots hired Bill O’Brien to fill the role. Still, both Judge and Patricia are expected to be back in 2023.
More notes out of New England…
Speaking of, Belichick had a much larger role on offense than he let on, according to Albert Breer of SI.com. The head coach was “active on the headsets” during games, providing the same “oversight over the offense that he’d traditionally had over the defense.” Belichick even had a stint “moonlighting” as the offensive play-caller, which resulted in the offense occasionally looking “messy from an operational standpoint.”
For what it’s worth, Patricia’s contract has expired, according to Breer. This provides the coach with an open opportunity to pursue a different role elsewhere, something he may consider since he’s already facing a reduced role in New England. Tight ends coach NickCaley also has an expiring contract, but Breer says the coach still has a chance to return to New England. Caley has received several OC interviews, including an interview for the Patriots job.
Top receiver Jakobi Meyers played through a small tear in his knee this past year, per Callahan and Guregian. Despite the inconsistent Patriots offense, Meyers continued to produce in 2022, topping 800 receiving yards for the second-straight season while also establishing a new career-high in touchdown receptions (six). The former undrafted free agent is set to hit free agency this offseason and should be in line for a significant pay day as one of the top available players at his position.
O’Brien is already starting to add to his new offensive staff. According to ESPN’s Mike Reiss (on Twitter), the Patriots are adding WillLawing to their offensive staff. The 37-year-old coach has worked alongside O’Brien at multiple stops, including Penn State, Alabama, and the Texans. Lawing held multiple roles during his time in the NFL, including tight ends coach. He spent the past two seasons as an offensive analyst at Alabama.
One of New England’s longest-tenured players is done for the season. ESPN’s Mike Reiss reports (via Twitter) that long snapper Joe Cardona has a torn tendon in his foot and won’t play again this season.
The 30-year-old suffered a partial tear in his foot earlier this month, but he still managed to play through the injury in Week 15. It’s uncertain if Cardona made the injury worse by playing, but either way, he won’t be back on the field until the 2023 campaign. Reiss notes that the veteran is expected to be fully recovered by the spring.
Cardona made a name for himself when he became the fourth long snapper in NFL history to be drafted, with the Patriots selecting the Navy product in the fifth round of the 2015 draft. Cardona hasn’t missed a game since joining the organization, appearing in all of New England’s 127 regular season games and 13 playoff games over that stretch. During his time with New England, Cardona has earned a pair of Super Bowl rings. He was also named to the organization’s ‘All-Dynasty Team’ in 2020. Cardona inked a four-year extension with the Patriots in 2018 that is set to expire following this season.
Meyers is the team’s leading receiver. Despite trailing running back Rhamondre Stevenson for the team-lead in receptions, Meyers still leads the team in receiving yards, by a healthy margin, and receiving touchdowns with 593 yards and three scores. Without Meyers, quarterback Mac Jones will be throwing to DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, and rookie second-round pick Tyquan Thornton, among a few others. This is the third game of the year that Meyers will miss.
Mills, one of New England’s starters at cornerback, will also be missing his third game of the season and his second consecutive game. When Mills was out last week, the Patriots used a combination of fourth-round rookie Jack Jones, third-round rookie Marcus Jones, and Myles Bryant to replace him. I imagine the same approach will be used tomorrow night to handle Cardinals receivers DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, and A.J. Green, as Rondale Moore is also reportedly out for Week 14.
The absence of Wynn, a starting tackle, is troubling for the Patriots, as their other starting tackle Trent Brown and backup tackle Yodny Cajuste are both listed as questionable heading into the week. The only tackle on the depth chart with no injury designation is Conor McDermott. Backup linemen James Ferentz and undrafted rookie Kody Russey are also available and starting guard Michael Onwenu could potentially kick out to tackle in an emergency.
Here are a few more injury rumors from around the conference, all concerning signal-callers in the AFC:
The Ravens started third-year quarterback Tyler Huntley in place of an injured Lamar Jackson today against the Steelers. The team called up practice squad quarterback, and undrafted rookie, Anthony Brown as a standard gameday elevation in case of emergency, and emergency struck when Huntley left the game in concussion protocol after a brutal blow from Steelers safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Brown wasn’t asked to do much but held on to the Ravens lead in a 16-14 win over the team’s division rival. Head coach John Harbaugh acknowledged that Brown would be playing next Sunday against the Browns if Huntley is unavailable but seemed to think Huntley will be just fine, according to Jamison Hensley of ESPN. “He seems good to me. He’s reciting the months of the year backwards,” Harbaugh quipped with reporters. “Can you do that right now?”
Jets quarterback Mike White took a pounding today during a loss to the Bills in which Buffalo’s defense racked up eight quarterback hits and four sacks. White left the game twice after receiving shots to the ribs. Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco entered in place of White, but, both times, White returned to play and eventually finished a close game in Buffalo. Head coach Robert Saleh informed reporters that White was headed to the hospital after the game for precautionary checks, according to Tom Pelissero of NFL Network. A follow-up provided that White did rejoin the team in time for the flight home after finishing up at the hospital, according to ESPN’s Rich Cimini. The quarterback situation next week will be something to keep an eye on. If starting quarterbacks Zach Wilson and White remain on the injury report, Flacco could earn his fourth start of the year and his first since September. Flacco would be set to face off against the Lions next week, a team he has never lost to in three matchups over 15 years in the league.
Another quarterback who took a beating today, Broncos signal-caller Russell Wilson was knocked out of today’s loss to the Chiefs with a concussion, according to the team’s official Twitter account. Wilson’s day was even more brutal than White’s as the Chiefs defense accounted for six sacks and 11 quarterback hits. Broncos third-year backup quarterback Brett Rypien would enter for Wilson and attempt to mount a comeback against the division rival Chiefs, falling just short when he was hit while throwing on the team’s final drive resulting in a duck of a pass that fluttered down into the waiting arms of Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed. Since the loss today officially eliminated the Broncos from postseason contention, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Denver give its quarterback a rest, not rushing Wilson back to play for little-to-no reason. Wilson may be eager to return, but it wouldn’t be shocking if Rypien took the team the rest of the way.
The Patriots were a talking point in some circles after their Thursday night loss to the Bills. Their passing attack in particular came under fire, but a turnaround this week against Arizona will have to come without their leading receiver.
New England has ruled out Jakobi Meyersfor their upcoming Monday night game as a result of a concussion. The news comes as little surprise, given the fact that the 26-year-old was unable to practice throughout the week as a result of the injury. His absence will be felt by the Patriots, given his team-leading 593 receiving yards this season, to go along with three touchdowns.
Overall, New England ranks 20th in the league with an average of 232 yards per game through the air. The WR position has not been dominant in that production, though, with running back Rhamondre Stevensonand tight end Hunter Henryranking third and fourth, respectively, in receiving yards on the team. Nevertheless, plenty of snaps and targets will be available for the likes of Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourneand Tyquan Thornton as complementary pass-catchers to DeVante Partker.
Here are some other wideout-related injury notes heading into the remaining Week 14 contests:
The Chiefs were hoping to get Kadarius Toneyback in time for this week after he logged three straight limited practices, but the midseason trade acquisition will miss at least one more contest due to his lingering hamstring issue. The former Giants first-rounder showed plenty of potential in his second game in Kansas City (four catches for 57 yards and one touchdown), but he will now be sidelined for his third consecutive game. With Mecole Hardmanstill on IR, the NFC West leaders will again be relatively shorthanded at the position.
The Cardinals will also be undermanned with respect to their pass-catchers when they play on Monday night. Rondale Moorehas been ruled out with a groin injury. The 2021 second-rounder missed Week 12, and was unable to sufficiently heal during the team’s bye week. The news extends the injury issues which have plagued the Purdue alum dating back to his time in college, and will leave Arizona without their slot starter. In more positive news, DeAndre Hopkinswill be available for the Cardinals when they look to find consistency on offense and avoid a three-game losing streak.