After just 17 starts at North Dakota State, quarterback Trey Lance is ready to turn pro. He also barely played in 2020 after NDSU nixed the season, but his tremendous 2019 season is still fresh in everyone’s minds. He may be green, and he’s yet to celebrate his 21st birthday, but Lance figures to be one of the first names called in the 2021 draft. 
[RELATED: NFL Draft Prospect Profile — Florida TE Kyle Pitt]
Lance arrived on campus in 2018 and attempted just one pass as a frosh. In 2019, he ascended to the starting job and put himself squarely on the NFL radar. As a sophomore, Lance threw for 2,786 yards, 28 touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Meanwhile, NDSU took full advantage of his running ability as he racked up 1,110 rushing yards off of 169 carries, good for a 6.5 average per attempt. In 2020, he led the Bison to a 39-28 comeback victory in their lone game against Central Arkansas. Despite the rust, he rattled off 143 rushing yards on 15 carries. He also threw the first interception of his collegiate career, but that can certainly be forgiven.
Aside from Trevor Lawrence, many feel that Lance is the most NFL-ready QB of this year’s bunch. Still shy of legal drinking age, Lance is known for putting in lots of film room time, and that showed throughout his ’19 season. Just a few months ago, Lance was seen as a second-tier QB, a consolation prize for middle-of-the-order teams missing out on Lawrence, BYU’s Zach Wilson and Ohio State’s Justin Fields. Now, he’s very much in the same conversation.
So, where will Lance land? Some saw him as a fit for the 49ers after their move up to No. 3, but there’s increasing chatter that they’ll go with Alabama’s Mac Jones instead. Unlike Lance, Jones was able to provide lots of footage for evaluators last year as he set a new national record by completing 77.4% of his throws. He lacks the mobility of Lance, but the Niners may see him as the safer choice of the two.
For the other QB-needy teams on the board, Lance offers tantalizing upside. If Lance can adjust to the pro game and work from the pocket a bit more, the sky is the limit. Falcons GM Terry Fontenot probably recognizes that, which is why he’s reportedly hesitant to pass up a Matt Ryan successor at No. 4. And, if the Falcons trade the pick, there’s a good chance that the team moving up will be eyeing Lance. Right now, it seems like the No. 3 pick is Lance’s ceiling. And, while floors are always hard to peg, it would be a surprise to see him get past No. 7. If the Lions don’t use that pick to take Jared Goff‘s successor, another team could slide in to get their preferred passer.
Some team will ‘fall in love’ with Trey, & good for Trey to become rich! But 19 starts at North Dakota State is a pretty low bench mark for evaluating talent.
Agreed-the lack of tape is relevant here. Trubisky is the most recent example, but history favors long time starters over short term ones. Guys need a few years at any level to learn how to play, whether that level is in college or the pros. At least, most do. It doesn’t mean that Lance will be bad, but he does need experience and scouts need tape to evaluate. Opposing teams likely didn’t have much film on him either. He started one year, in which opposing defense did not have film from the previous year to prepare with. In the NFL, we see mobile quarterbacks with that same circumstance explode for a year and then come back down to earth after a year of film and an offseason level them out. Plus, Lance is obviously an elite athletic talent. College teams have more trouble with that than pro teams as is, even at ones at a higher level than NDST’s competition.
Lance is just hard to evaluate. He doesn’t have problems, necessarily, just questions. His athleticism is off the charts, and he looks like he can make good decisions. Does he have the experience starting in general and playing a good level of competition to make him worthy of a first round pick? Only time will tell there, but it’s the classic potential versus disappointment for a GM. Every prospect like Lance makes you ask, “Could this one be different?”
With the * that I don’t watch any college football, I’d rather take a chance on 19 games at Nowhere U. than a QB who played on Alabama’s superteam.
According to the other article about Jones and the 9’ers, John Lynch had a pro day at NDSU, so when will Lance??
He’s better than Fields. Set that in stone. I really like this kid. True, not Mitch tape. But damn what’s there from 2019 is impressive.
*Much tape
Important clarification. I thought you were saying “he’s no Mitch Trubisky” which would be damning with no praise.
Trey is bigger and faster than Mitch. I compare him more to Mariota but I why the lack of starts brings Mitch into the picture. At end of the day Trey is the only true 1000 yard rusher of the many 1st round mobile qbs in this draft which would put him on the Vick, Cam, Lamar conversation. Can he develop into a quality passer? But the upside maybe the highest with small school trey he will go inside the top 8 picks for sure
I don’t blame him for coming out as his perceived value is high even though it’s not warranted as he has not shown enough to be picked in the first rd and I think the reason he’s getting the hype is because of Carson Wentz came from there . I know some dumb idiots around the nfl are calling North Dakota State QBU which is BS as once NFL start came out of there and even he was not a great qb he was pretty good before injuries but nothing HOF worthy or Top 5 nfl qb.
Lance is not a first QB he’s more like a second rd or lower in my eyes. but NEEDs overlook where there talent would normally be in the draft .
it’s smart for lance as if he played next yr the NFL might actually get to see his flaws and pick him apart and his draft stock would probably drop or he it would show he can compete in lower talent bracket very well and show he’s a steady QB .
but me if he’s picks high I see him as a bust unless he is sitting the bench for the entire season and brought along slowly and is in the right system fit for him and has steady coaching around him then he might do ok but I don’t see him being a top 10 qb maybe a top 20 . just my opinion
“The most NFL ready QB behind Lawrence” in the draft? A guy from a small school who only played one year is more ready than Wilson, Justin Fields, or Jones? Every other media outlet that I’ve heard has suggested the exact opposite. I don’t know enough about the kid to give an opinion myself, but is sure seems contradictory to what I’ve been hearing the last few months
I honestly do not see ANY of these 1st round QBs being successful in the NFL, not even T Lawrence. These guys get SOOOO hyped up and then fall face first! Look at the list of QBs taken in the 1st round of the draft since 2010, and outside of a very few like Mahomes is a whos-who of backups and guys not even in the league anymore. The best 2 QB moves this year will end up being nobody drafted, but Stafford and Darnold. Stafford can win the Rams a title if they stay healthy and you get Sam Darnold outta the cluster that is the Jets and your gonna see him take off!