Divisions have produced four playoff teams previously. The 1994 NFC Central sent every team but the Buccaneers to the postseason, while the 1998 AFC East moved every team but the Colts — in Peyton Manning‘s rookie season — into that year’s playoff field. (The NFC Central also accomplished this in 1982, but eight teams made each conference’s field due to the strike-induced format change.) The NFL realigning its divisions, killing the five-team divisional setup, in 2002 made it impossible for four teams in one quartet to venture to the playoffs. The 2020 expansion to a 14-team postseason field, however, reopened that door.
Entering Week 10, the AFC’s seven-team “if the season ended today” field would consist of the division-leading Chiefs, Jaguars and Dolphins, along with the fourth North-division clubs. No other division features more than two teams with winning records; the AFC North carries four. This is shaping up to be one of the most interesting divisional stretch runs in modern NFL history.
The Ravens lead the way at 7-2 and hold a runaway DVOA lead on the rest of the NFL. Baltimore’s defense leads the league in points allowed and paces the NFL in sacks — by four — with 35. The Ravens’ summer additions of Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy have paid dividends. Clowney’s 11 QB hits trail only Justin Madubuike‘s 14, while Van Noy now has at least five sacks in six of the past seven seasons. The veteran linebacker has managed to get there despite being signed in late September. Van Noy, 32, is on a one-year, $1.6MM deal; Clowney, 30, signed for one year and $2.5MM. The team’s $20MM-per-year Roquan Smith extension is paying off early; Pro Football Focus ranks the ex-Bears top-10 pick fourth among off-ball linebackers.
QBR slots Lamar Jackson 11th, and the Ravens remain a run-oriented team. Though, Jackson is operating efficiently in Todd Monken‘s offense. The team’s remaining schedule resides as the NFL’s second-toughest — in part because of the AFC North games remaining — though the squad with the hardest slate remaining may be the Ravens’ top competitor for this hotly contested crown.
Joe Burrow‘s return to full strength has reinvigorated the Bengals, who made the fourth-year passer the NFL’s highest-paid player. After the Ravens and Chargers incrementally moved the AAV bar following the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts extension, the Bengals slid it to $55MM for Burrow. The superstar passer is back in form, leading Cincinnati to four straight wins. The Bengals (5-3) have now downed the 49ers and Bills on the road, but Tankathon slots their remaining schedule as by far the most difficult. Trips to Kansas City and Jacksonville remain, but the two-time reigning AFC North champs are surging at midseason, aiming to turn another 0-2 start into a playoff home game.
Moving forward without Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell, the Bengals have not seen their safety setup match Bates’ Falcons work. Then again, the team was not exactly expecting that, given Bates’ talent and $16MM-per-year price tag. Cincinnati keeping its linebacker tandem (Logan Wilson–Germaine Pratt) together has provided considerable help, though the team continues to run into injury trouble on offense. The Bengals faced the Ravens during Burrow’s early-season health issue, losing at home and raising the stakes for the sides’ Thursday-night tilt in Week 11.
The most notable improvement by an AFC North unit comes in Cleveland, where the Jim Schwartz DC hire is looking like one of the best assistant additions in recent memory. The Browns have gone from a miscommunication-plagued defense to one that is producing dominant efforts. The Browns held the Cardinals to 57 total yards, the team’s fewest since 1955, and has seen Myles Garrett (9.5 sacks) become a Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner (and surefire candidate for a market-setting second extension). Offseason adds Za’Darius Smith and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo have boosted the Browns as well, and Cleveland’s elite pass defense led to the 5-3 mark amid the Deshaun Watson shoulder saga.
The highly paid quarterback returned in Week 9 but has still not closely resembled his Houston version, with the off-field issues that produced a historic hiatus still impacting the former Pro Bowler’s trajectory. As the Browns’ defense leads the NFL in DVOA, its offense ranks 28th. Watson’s rotator cuff issue will be a key divisional subplot, and the team seeing both tackles join Nick Chubb on IR will make matters tougher. But Cleveland’s defense is providing a strong safety net thus far.
Also 5-3, the Steelers rank 14th in DVOA. Punching-bag OC Matt Canada continues to draw heat, with Pittsburgh’s defense also carrying an inconsistent offense. The Steelers have notched home wins over the Browns and Ravens — even as their streak without 400 total yards has reached 56 games. Kenny Pickett sits 27th in QBR, but the team has been without Pat Freiermuth and Diontae Johnson for chunks of the season. That has not stopped calls for Canada’s ouster, as the 2022 first-round QB’s work down the stretch will help determine how the Steelers see the Pitt product in the long term.
T.J. Watt has stayed healthy this season, and the Watt-Alex Highsmith duo remains one of the NFL’s best. The now-well-paid pair, with Highsmith signed to a $17MM-AAV extension, has combined for 14 sacks and 31 QB hits. PFF does rate 33-year-old Patrick Peterson and holdover Levi Wallace outside the top 90 among cornerbacks, with Joey Porter Jr. sitting 25th despite not starting for the season’s first six games. Cole Holcomb‘s season-ending injury, and Minkah Fitzpatrick‘s hamstring trouble stand to be issues to monitor for this defense, however.
Who will end up winning this captivating race? The Bengals and Steelers still have four divisional games left, the Browns and Ravens three. How many playoff teams will this division produce? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.
Glad I’m not a fan of the Browns, so it’s fun to say, they have the worst QB in the division. And the most expensive!
As a Steelers fan who’s seen enough, I disagree. 21 starts into his career, we’ve seen nothing from Kenny Pickett except for three come from behind 4th quarter wins against middling teams
But much cheaper than Watson.
I watched this kid progress at Pitt and saluted the evolution. I felt good about the draft pick. But if nothing else, this has reminded me that there is a chasm between playing in college and playing in the NFL.
Yeah, Watson is cheaper but I just believe he’ll come around and that Pickett never will. It’s a shame. I pull for the kid. But in watching QB’s around the league, he just doesn’t compare
I think I’ve seen two games from both Cleveland and Pittsburgh this season. Watson was undoubtedly worse in both and had one of the ugliest picks I’ve ever seen. They’re neck in neck when it comes to PFF rating. Watson is ahead by less than a point. Not sure I’d wanna pay $230M for that when I could pay Pickett his rookie scale salary. I’m with arty here.
Yeah. I get all that. But with Watson, you have to believe he’s more the QB we saw in Houston than what he is showing now
Why? He missed nearly two years. He’s sucked in an 11 game sample since. The rust doesn’t seem to be disappearing, he’s taking himself off the field, and on top of that, I don’t trust that his game isn’t being affected by his mental state. Having looming legal issues and going from beloved to hated by the general public overnight can’t be easy on a person. I think he completely ruined his career trajectory with a series of poor choices.
Yeah, and I agree with all of that. But if you watched today’s games, Watson is ten times the QB Pickett is. Let’s leave salary and legalities out of the equation for a minute. It’s not even a comparison, and I say that as a Steelers fan who is now more a fan of the league than I am this team
It’s hard to fathom. The Steelers either have a receiver corp who just can’t get open downfield or they have a QB who is simply unable to make the throws.
I would compare this to the Bubby Brister era here only I think even he was able to throw the ball downfield
It’s simple. The Steelers have the worst coach in the division, followed by the worst OC and worst QB.
I watched some of both games, and while I agree Watson played better, I highly disagree with the claim that he is playing like 10x the QB. Maybe his natural ability and ceiling are 10x Pickett’s, but that’s irrelevant at this point because he hasn’t played nearly to those capabilities in almost a full season. He’s not who he was during his Texans tenure anymore.
Watson was horrific today, that INT in particular was atrocious. Pickett was obviously quite poor, too, but it wasn’t as if Watson had an admirable performance. Cleveland and Pittsburgh are both winning in spite of their QBs, not because of them. I think the argument shouldn’t be about who is better, it should be about who is worse.
Agree with the gist of your comments. Yea, and I think that was my overall point. I can’t think of 5 starters worse than Pickett. Seriously. Who?
I get the hatred towards Watson and the general idea that this is all karma. No, he’s not the same player he was at Houston and while I don’t know what’s physically wrong with him, he looks like a guy at the end of his career in the way he moves
And even so, I’d put him above a guy who should be holding a clipboard
I think that’s certainly fair. Pickett going for 200 yards is a major win at this point and it shouldn’t feel that way. In terms of true #1s (no injury fill-ins), I’m not sure I can think of 5 starters worse either. I think Watson might be bottom 10, too.
I’ve come to believe the coaches are aware of Pickett’s limitations. I mean, what other reason could there be for keeping him on such a tight leash?
Generally, they’ll take a couple shots in the 15-20 yard range per game. They won’t throw anything over the middle.
Whether it’s arm strength or accuracy, it’s kind of obvious that there’s a reason for such control
So the idea is to be a game manager instead of a QB
As someone who has Pickens in Fantasy I am very tired of Pickett.
The Ravens find a way to choke every year. I’d be shocked if they didn’t agan.
This is why I polled bengals. Lol
This year feels different. The pass game is no longer an afterthought.
Choke? It’s called having your starting quarterback miss games. The Ravens were in 1st place the last 2 seasons before Jackson got hurt
Ravens may have beat Cincy last year in the playoffs if it wasn’t for the backup QB fumbling at the goal line. This year Lamar looks much better now that he has better WRs. Their D is top notch. Right now, I think they’re the most complete team in the AFC. Cleveland has a great D, but the offense hasn’t been there. Pittsburgh isn’t a good as their record, and winning games with D and ST. Cincy, we’ll see.
You’re giving Cincy absolutely no credit. Joe was hurt week two and almost beat the “heathy” ravens. Divisional games will always be tough no matter who is at qb
I’d like to see the Bengals win, Burrow deserves it. He’s a gamer. But if the season ended tomorrow, I still think BMore is the better, more well rounded team. Every team has its ups and downs, Cincy needs more ups the 2nd half.
And the last 3 times the Bengals beat the Ravens, they were injured. Baltimore is the best team in the AFC right now
Ravens were also missing like 6 starters in week 2. So no, he did not almost beat the healthy Ravens.
I hoping for a 4 way tie that forces Goodell to invent another dozen tie breaker rules.
If he does, it will be done in a way to force the Steelers out and the Patriots in. #NeverForget.
Look for Ravens to beat Browns and Bengals in next 2 games this week. That will practically lock up division and put Ravens on road to #1 seed. I see them ending regular season with at least 14 wins. Defense dominates and Lamar is balling along with run game.