While connected to potentially bypassing the 2024 draft if he found his potential destination unsatisfactory, Caleb Williams will make his expected move soon. The USC quarterback is entering the draft, ESPN.com’s Pete Thamel reports.
Williams has long been expected to declare, and he joins Drake Maye in doing so. The 2022 Heisman winner is favored to become the No. 1 pick, with the Bears firmly in play to move on from Justin Fields and draft the two-year USC star. That is not set in stone, however, and Fields’ status will play a major role in Williams’ NFL future.
Monday represents the deadline for players to make their draft declarations, and while Williams has made millions via the NIL component that has changed major college athletics, that pales in comparison to what he would make over the course of a fully guaranteed No. 1 overall contract. Bryce Young is tied to a $37.96MM fully guaranteed deal; the No. 1 pick in 2024 will slide in a bit higher.
The Bears have a fascinating decision ahead, and Williams will drive the seminal call. The former Oklahoma recruit has been viewed as a top-tier prospect for an extended stretch, with his ceiling as a passer separating him from Fields, who has shown elite abilities as a runner but has been inconsistent as a thrower through three seasons. The Bears traded the No. 1 overall pick to the Panthers last year, allowing Carolina to move up for Young. Williams brings a higher prospect pedigree than Young or C.J. Stroud, giving the Bears more to consider this year. After making the Carolina trade before free agency last year, GM Ryan Poles looks set to be more deliberate this time around.
Transferring from Oklahoma to follow Lincoln Riley to Los Angeles, Williams won the Heisman as a sophomore after throwing for 4,537 yards and 42 touchdowns while limiting his interceptions to only five. This past season, Williams kept his interception total at five but failed to match his other Heisman numbers with 3,633 passing yards and 30 touchdowns, albeit in two fewer games.
The 6-foot-1 QB has drawn early Patrick Mahomes comparisons, and while that is a lofty standard, Williams will enter the NFL with a better accuracy profile compared to the Chiefs megastar. Williams completed 68.4% of his passes as a junior and averaged 9.4 yards per attempt, marks north of his Heisman-season totals. He also operated in a larger spotlight compared to any QB who has entered the draft over the past two years. Like Trevor Lawrence during his junior season, Williams entered his final college campaign as the runaway favorite to be the following year’s No. 1 pick.
Chicago passing on Williams at 1 would surprise. Fields showed progress as a passer in Year 3, but development and being the reason for passing on a No. 1 overall pick for a second straight year are different matters. Poles also did not draft Fields; predecessor Ryan Pace did. The Bears must decide on Fields’ fifth-year option by May. If the Bears trade him, they would do so before that point, giving Fields’ second NFL team that responsibility. Drafting Williams would also come with at least three years of rookie-deal salary, giving Chicago a chance to fortify its roster in other places. Picking up Fields’ option would start the clock on the Ohio State alum, whose rookie-deal salaries would stop in 2024.
The Fields case is not without considering for Chicago, either; it just comes with tremendous risk. Trading the top pick would fetch the Bears far more than trading Fields will, potentially requiring a Robert Griffin III-type haul for a team to move up — well, depending on where that team is currently slotted. But Poles and Co. would need to be convinced Fields will develop into a surefire franchise option for that route to be strongly considered.
Although some buzz about Fields still being the Bears’ future has emerged, more Williams-to-Chicago noise has come out. Either way, this will be one of the most interesting leadups to a draft in modern NFL history.
Water is wet. More at 11
Yeah that’s a shocker alright.
I’m so shocked, I’m electrocuted
Maybe the Bears should take a look at the franchise that has hung 10 straight on them and let their next QB sit for a couple of years rather than throw them into the fire… on the way to the dumpster.
Guys drafted 1st overall don’t sit, and if they have to they probably were ovrdrafted.
From 2016-2023, Burrow, Lawrence, Mayfield, Goff, Young & Murray were taken 1st. Only Burrow had a decent to good rookie season & career (so far). Carolina would have been far better off letting Dalton get killed the first month than Young. See the strengths and weaknesses of your team before getting your ‘franchise QB’ creamed.
The Rams did well with Goff.
Lawrence I don’t think is Peyton Manning, but crippled year 1 by Meyer so it wouldn’t have mattered. Made playoffs last year.
Burrows was given the best weapons of all of them too.
Rams traded Goff for Stafford and gave up plenty of picks. I’m happy to see him and Detroit rocking this year. But he was a throw in for the trade.
TL hasn’t had a 7+ game winning streak with Pederson as HC. The greats constantly have long winning streaks
Burrow has weapons, but no O line. Missed many games 2 out of 4 years in the league.
If you’re drafting #1, your team is horrible. So don’t kill your rookie QB. That’s my point.
You find the weirdest ways to judge QBs. Like insanely bad ways
“Wins and losses” despite NFL being a team sport with 3 phases offense defense special teams. Wins and losses are also a horrible way to judge pitchers in mlb.
Win streaks? Wtf kind of measurement is that?
Batted balls which was another weird one.
You find the absolute worse ways to accurately judge a QBs performance.
Lawrence has been playing fine
Averaging 65-66% completion, 4000+ yards, 20+ TDs under Pederson
The jags defense this year
3rd most penalized team behind Vikings and browns
7th worst pass defense
11th worst total yards
As always blaming some other facet of the team, not the QB. These HoF’ers stand out by year 3 if not sooner. Brady, Peyton, Breese, Ben, Mahomes. all soon to be HoF’ers.
But keep thinking a 6’6″ QB shouldn’t be docked for having his passes swatted down (Herbert). It must be his O line’s fault, right?
How do you judge QB’s? Blaming ST’s or D? There isn’t 1 QB I listed going #1 that’s getting a bust in Canton. It’s a QB league and they aren’t winning constantly. Simple as that. The game is skewed for them & yet I bet they are roughly .500 combined. That’s over a 5 year period.
Why do you think QB’s win the MVP award every single year, less AP from long ago.
QB wins are the most irrelevant stat anyone can bring up. As soon as they do, nearly all validity is thrown out the window.
So what stats do you go by? Everyone wants to dismiss Trevor’s first season, I disagree, but for this comment, why not? back to back 9-8 seasons. Wow! Both seasons had long losing streaks as well. That’s not consistent QB’ing.
Same for Herbert. 30-31. Up and down streaks just like Trevor.
If you consider that great, fine. I consider it average as their records indicate. Neither have had 7+ winning streaks. That’s the mark of a good to great QB. Prescott and Hurts at least that that on their resumes (for multiple years), but, I bet, you’ll say they’re overrated.
“So what stats do you go by?”
The basic stats for a QB would be
Completion percentage
TD:int ratio
Maybe yards but that’s debatable.
Intermediate stats for a qb would be
QBR
Percentages on throws
0-10 yards
11-20 yards
21+ yards
Performance against the blitz
More advance stats would be looking at offensive efficiency
3rd down conversation rate
Percent of drives that end in points
Percent of drives that end in turn overs
It’s the old football adage. ‘QB’s & HC’s get all the credit when winning and take all the blame when losing.’.
Herbert didn’t do squat last year in the playoffs against an average Jags team in the 2nd half. But that’s not his responsibility? Chargers were 5-8 before he got hurt this year. But I already know your weak response. “It’s the coaches fault, the O-lines fault, the 1st round WR that didn’t do anything fault, the D’s fault. Just not Justin’s fault.”.
Passing yards. QBR. TD:INT ratio. I don’t think Lawrence is all that good either. But QB wins doesn’t matter. Prescott and Hurts both aren’t very good either. Look at how great they did when it matters…. I never said any of those guys are great, or not. All I said is QB wins mean nothing. Kenny Pickett is 14-10. No one in their right mind takes him over Lawrence, or Herbert, or any starting QB at that…
You know what would’ve happened if Dalton started the first month and got killed then they turned to Young. Young would’ve got killed when he came in.
Not all teams have the luxury of having a young QB that can sit 2-3 years and learn from a HOFer that is on his way out of town.
So you’re willing to sacrifice your QB over a lost season? That makes no sense whatsoever. Let Dalton play the season; measure your strengths and weaknesses and build around Young this offseason. It’s not rocket science. GB has been perfectly comfortable letting AR and Love sit for years before playing and how has that panned out for them? One of the most consistent winning teams in the league, that’s how.
Yeah, you could see the development from training camp to throughout the season. Typical, expected bumps and valleys but each valley was higher than the last. Just needed the experience of playing the damn game! (in response to JP8)
He’s sub .500 against top 25 teams.
Yeah but so was Mahomes, Josh Allen, and that worked out pretty nicely for the Chiefs and Bills didn’t it.
Mahomes and Allen didn’t play on top 25 teams either. Less talent around those 2 in college.
I means USC defense was ranked 105th in the nation not really much Williams can do about that.
That’s over a 2 year span. Would you draft him?
How do you not to be honest. He’s a crazy talent how do you pass on that. The bears options are what exactly? Keep Justin fields who has lost twice as many games as he’s won and is about to need a new contract. If the Dallas cowboys season has taught us anything it’s you can’t pay an average to slightly above average QB like he’s a stud and expect to make it to the ultimate goal. If Williams is anything better then Justin fields the idea the bears are going to have had the no 1 pick 2 years in a row and somehow come out of it having missed out on CJ stroud and Caleb Williams is an all time blunder.
Every 1st rounder is ‘crazy talent’; especially top 15 talent. Chicago is a poorly built team that is way more than 1 QB away from winning. Williams has to prove he can beat more than Arizona State, & other bad D1 schools and he hasn’t. And when he loses, he whines. Not good leadership skills.
First of all QB is the foundational piece my man. Saying the bears are more than a Qb away is like saying the house is more than a foundation away from being built. Yes there are other things to be done but if you don’t have a foundation aka the Qb then the rest of the team isn’t really relevant is it.
Secondly how exactly are the bears going to continue to build this team you want them to while paying Justin fields 25-30 million a year.
Thirdly your point about Williams not being able to beat top 25 teams completely falls apart when you actually look at the games. USCs defense this year gave up 36 points to Oregon, 52 points to Washington, 41 points to Arizona ( who he did beat) and 48 points to Notre d
Dame those are the ranked opponents they played. That’s an average of 44 points a game. I don’t care if you are Tom Brady, Payton Manning or Patrick Mahomes if your defense gives up 44 points a game you are not going to win a majority of those games and last time I checked Williams doesn’t play on defense.
Bottom line is Justin fields isn’t the answer and if after 2 years in a row of picking no 1 the bears stick with Justin fields it would be a massive blunder by the franchise.
Going back to my original post, Burrow, Lawrence, Mayfield, Goff, Young & Murray haven’t done squat in the league because their teams lack talent everywhere. Burrow, when healthy is good, but he’s missed +/-50% of his games so far. Goff made LA so mad that they traded him and two 1st’s to get rid of him. I’m glad he’s taken Detroit so far this season, but he’s also 29. Same for Mayfield. Dumped by 3-4 teams in 2 seasons?
Yes, it’s a QB driven league. But if your QB is getting killed because of bad line or no one to throw to, you end up w/ bad teams. It’s not rocket science. A good QB surrounded by a good team will always win more than a great QB w/o talent around him. That’s precisely why Tom left NE, a great QB w/ no talent around him. He went to a loaded roster.
I agree, Chicago should move on from Fields. He hasn’t proven much in 3 years. Why pay him the starting average of $40m? Giants regret paying Danny as an example. Start over again. But Williams comes across as a ‘me first’ person who’s only in it for the money. Not what I want for a face of the franchise. He thinks he’s so great, he should get partial ownership of a team? Please. And when it comes to shootouts, that’s why you’re supposed to have a great QB, not blame the D. Google C Williams vs top 25 teams. The D’s always shut him down. That’s why he has a losing record against them.
I’m just so confused on what your definition of not doing squat is? Burrow and Goff both made super bowls very fast in their careers. If your definition of doing something is winning a Super Bowl then there are only 5 active QBs in the entire league that have done that and of those 5 only Mahomes and Stafford are still playing at a high level.
Brady spend 20+ years in New England elevating talent and winning the entire time. Yes at age 44 on his last legs he didn’t have the juice to carry the whole load but I guess it’s a good thing these QBs coming in aren’t 44 years old. Like I said earlier by all means let the bears trade this pick and get a bunch of capital to again not have the difference maker at QB while they watch CJ stroud, Caleb Williams, and maybe another QB in this draft dominate for the next 10 years.
Also let’s do exactly what you said with Caleb Williams against top 25 teams in the last 2 seasons. In the last 2 seasons he has played 9 games against top 25 ranked teams. In those games he has passed/ran for 28 touchdowns downs, thrown for 2,966 yards. That would make his per game averages over a 17 game season 52 passing/ rushing touchdowns and 5,602 passing yards. He would have literally lead the NFl by over a 1000 passing yards this season but somehow those teams shut him down. If that’s your definition being shutdown then I don’t know what to tell you.
Burrow is hurt half the time. To be fair, that’s on his GM for not building a decent O-line over the course of 4 years. Having a great WR room doesn’t mean much if your QB is getting sacked or running from D’s.
Goff. Sean McVay is a great HC. He’s taken both Goff and Stafford to the SB. This season was supposed to be a wash, yet Sean got the Rams into the playoffs. He can flat out coach. Sean had no problem shipping Goff off plus two 1st rounders for Stafford. To me, that’s a damning statement about Goff. He’s had 1 good season, this year, in Detroit. Goff is wildly inconsistent.
As for Williams, this tweet sums it up for me. That’s not what I want to draft at #1. First round, sure, but not the top pick. Google “C. William against top 25 teams”, lots of articles of poor QB play against those teams since 2021.
‘Caleb Williams is now 4-7 against Top 25 opponents in his career.’
Last draft, Poles said he didn’t draft the big DT UGA because “Character is always going to be important to us,”. Williams thinks he should be a minority owner of the franchise as a rookie? Talk about character flaws. Williams reminds me of Johnny Manziel w/ his arrogance. Thinks he the greatest thing ever to play football.
At this point its like talking to a wall with you about how he did against top 25 lol, you just totally ignored the context of how he played in those games as compared to his teams result.
It doesn’t matter if it’s Tom Brady, Payton Manning, or Patrick Mahomes if the defense averages giving up 44 points a game it is mathematically nearly impossible to have a winning record. You just completely ignore that. If you’re such a QB wine guy that must mean you think Brock Purdy is better than Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson after all he has a better winning percentage than all of them.
They didn’t take the Jalen Carter last year okay, he was in legal trouble involving someone’s death. Johnny Manzel was high or drunk during practice and games while the coaching staff knew about it. That is such a different situation than a kid that is the first NIL superstar in college football history being a little over dramatic.
You’re comparing two guys that could have done prison time over what they did to a kid getting a parking ticket.
Last time I’ll say it it does not matter how good the o-line, WR room is, Running game is, without a QB that can make a difference good luck when you get to the playoffs and have to play good teams.
His stock would only go down if he passed up the draft for another disappointing year at USC.
He better be drafted by a team that doesn’t mind him crying when things don’t go his way…….his mental makeup might scare some teams…….
Yup, and drafted by a team that guarantees him part of the ownership on top of the million$…no thanks!
The Bears won’t draft him. Poles has already stated that character, passion for the game and character will be major components of his decision. Williams fails in most of these issues.
He’s a smaller statured version of Fields. That will go another direction.
Too soon to say that. Poles will, along with Eberflus and whoever the new OC is, (who I’m betting will have input), give him a private workout and series of interviews. They will also do a deep dive into who he is going back and speaking with everyone who’s worked with him. I doubt much or even any of that has happened yet and he must do the due diligence. Also, there are other QBs to monitor as well. My personal fav is Daniel’s from LSU. No one is gonna ‘know’ for awhile.
Bears have a long history of failing to develop QBs.
Might as well trade the pick for a kings ransom, roll with Justin Fields another year and look for a veteran qb in 2025 Prescott and Goff currently headline the class.
Been there done that with Cutler…No thanks. I’m not sure what people see in Fields, I really don’t.
Perfect for the pats. We throw away first rounders anyway.
Trade the pick.
There are actually three mindsets when it comes to this pick, instead of the two that the article mentions: the first is to pick Williams (or Maye, I suppose), the second is to keep Fields because the Bears believe in him, and the third is to keep Fields because the Bears believe in someone who will be available next year.
Trading down could net you a few great picks that could guarantee the ability to move up to the one or two spot next year, if necessary, and still pick a handful of players this year to set the stage for the new QB. Or, Chicago could go ahead and take Williams. I’d say that if they are anything at all less than one thousand percent sure that Williams is their guy, they should trade the pick. They still have their own first, and will likely get another at least decent one in this trade, so they can take a quality receiver or whatever other player is available to help set up an offense for a future QB, as well as fill other holes. Chicago has set itself up well to not have to feel pressured to do anything it does not fully believe in this year.
Having an abundance of options is generally a good thing but can the Bears resist the urge to shoot themselves in the foot as they normally do?
With the first pick, the Miami Dolphins select…
This guy has Bo Callahan written all over him…someone will draft him and he won’t get his 5th year option picked up…he reminds me of Josh Rosen and we all know how that worked out
Trade the pick and draft Marvin Harrison Jr then use the other picks for OL
Josh Rosen was skinny kid outa ucla who was statue in pocket n through a nice ball but there were always questions bout his durability @the next level. Except 4both goin to college in LA there aren’t any similarities. CW is duel threat QB who won a Heisman n played on biggest stages of ncaa football @2 diff powerhouse schools. Fail 2see the correlation. Harrison is best player available if u already have established NFL QB.
Buckaroo,is that you? Sorry, Buckaroo has always made a “Bo Callahan” reference and my response has always been “how many people went to his 21st birthday party”. So, does Williams have Ryan Leaf potential? Character has always been important but now more so than ever with the financial investment required these days.
Also stacking up against Williams are the Bears themselves. A kid could be talented with a decent character but if he goes to a crappy team, he could waste away. I mean, after all, there are reasons why the Bears, for the 3rd time in 7 years are about to draft their “franchise QB”. Really, 3 in SEVEN years???
There’s an outside chance the Bears can fill all their needs this off season. But not with the amount and rounds their draft picks are in. They need to either, Trade the number 1 pick twice, as in down to 3rd and then down to 8th for more picks. Or trade 9 down a few spots depending on who’s still on the board at 9. Or trade one of their 2 number 2 picks next year and get back a couple picks this year. No one man fills the Bears needs. After resigning Johnson and cutting Whitehair and Jackson, and signing all their draft picks they should have around 40 million bucks left to spend. If they could score Danielle Hunter as the other edge they could still have like 20 million left. It can be done but Poles needs to be creative. Caleb Williams helps NONE of that.
Fields helps none of that either, Mike.
I just want to add that the Bears have settled for medicare QB play for way too long. I really like Justin in terms of character and athletic ability but right now- he’s the 4th best QB in the division. But before they make any QB decisions, they have to hit on the right OC. I seriously hope Poles doesn’t leave it up to Eberflub again. More than once last year he proclaimed Getsy is “MY guy”.
They can have all the added picks in the world but none of it matters if they don’t swing big for a QB and OC.
I think that there exists a possibility both that Getsy could be a better coordinator with a different quarterback and also that Fields could be a more effective player with a different coordinator. Their styles don’t seem to mesh. Fields is obviously a runner, and doesn’t do well with multiple reads. Getsy comes from a background with an experienced quarterback who has elite passing intelligence and is little threat to run on every down.
Neither one have been helped by the Bears’ offensive line in the past few years, though that situation seems to be improving. Regardless of whose “fault” the lack of offensive success is, though, the results haven’t given much confidence. Even with the late season improvement, you’d think that changes still need to be made going forward, even in the event that Chicago runs with Fields for another year and goes a different route than taking Williams or Maye at one.
Well, I’m not an expert, but I watched most of their games this year. Getsy failed time and again to make in-game adjustments. And he was predictable. Maybe he’s an OC for an Andy Reid (like Nagy, who also failed in Chicago) but not with a head coach as over his head as Matt Eberflus. Find an innovative OC like the young guy in Houston- a beautifully designed offense around the QB’s strengths strengths-deceptive and unpredictable- and even Fields might have a chance.
I can agree with that.
I don’t get it…For as long as I can remember the Bears have been swinging and missing at the quarterback position. Not once have I thought they’ve had a competent player behind center. They now have the opportunity to get one and the majority want to stay the course? It’s asinine to me.
Chicago Bears: four quarterbacks go to die.
Where quarterbacks go to die
Haha, not quite as clever when you have to correct yourself.
Uhhh that’s why QB’s die in Chicago. You build the line FIRST, Then you’re not wasting 5 years of cheap QB money in your QB. When people draft the QB FIRST, He gets beat up and you waste 5 years of cheap QB play and he usually spends most of his time on IR. The Bears need to keep Fields for the next 2 years and build a great OL and DL. Then find a QB. If you have a line that doesn’t get them killed, QB’s tend to want to play for you. I’m not saying they SHOULDN’T draft a QB, I’m just saying they shouldn’t with the FIRST pick. I would be totally cool with them trading down and ending up with Daniels at 3 or a guy like Penix or somebody else if they trade down 9. At the very least Fields needs some competition. He’s been handed the job for 3 years.
Chicago is in a great situation either way. That CAR trade could be a franchise altering trade. They already got Moore, a stud T and CB and now the #1 overall pick.
Poles seems smart, I think they’ll be in good shape. They have a lot of young talent already, a ton of cap space and a big opportunity to improve.
1) Keep the pick, Draft Williams and trade Fields for more draft capital.
2) Keep Fields, still has two years on his rookie deal. See if a competent OC can get the most out of him. Get a ton of draft capital to add to their own 1st rd pick(9) and make sure to get at least one future 1, that way if Fields proves not to be the guy you can draft his replacement with the extra draft capital.
Either way, Chicago is in a great position.
6’1″.
Not ideal.
didn’t see this coming
Whoever drafts Big Baby had better put in for a few cases of Excedrin.
Kenny Pickett type ceiling
When I was a kid, the whole football world expected the Colts to draft Ricky Williams. He already had all his Indy stuff ready, when they stunned everyone by taking Edgerin James. This could be the same type of scenario.
Even Caleb Williams would suck with the Bears OL.