PFR Originals News & Rumors

Community Tailgate: Eli Manning’s Contract

June 29th, 2015 at 3:46pm CST by Luke Adams

We’re still more than two months away from the start of battles on the NFL gridiron, but there’s no offseason when it comes to debate amongst fans. Earlier this month, we launched a new series here at PFR that will be known as the Community Tailgate. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. Every weekday, we’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

As I outlined this morning, agent Tom Condon told Ralph Vacchiano of the New York Daily News over the weekend that he’s confident the Giants will eventually sign his client, quarterback Eli Manning, to a new contract. Vacchiano rightly points out that very few top signal-callers ultimately reach free agency, suggesting that he thinks the Giants and Manning will reach an accord at “the appropriate time.” With Manning preparing to enter a contract year, it’s not clear yet when that “appropriate time” will arrive, and what an appropriate deal for the 34-year-old would look like.

Manning had the worst season of his career in 2013, leading the NFL with a career-high 27 interceptions and suffering his first losing season since his rookie year. He got off to another shaky start in 2014 under offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, but quickly righted the ship and finished the year with 4,410 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, and a career-best 63.1% completion percentage.

While the Giants have to be encouraged by Manning’s play last year, the team may want to wait until after the 2015 season to negotiate his next contract, in order to assess how the QB’s second year with McAdoo plays out. It’s also possible the club wants to wait for Philip Rivers to re-up with the Chargers to help set the market for Manning.

Another accomplished veteran signal-caller, Ben Roethlisberger, inked a four-year extension worth $87.4MM with the Steelers earlier this offseason. Of course, while Big Ben’s deal may be a point of reference for the Manning talks, Roethlisberger is a year younger than the Giants’ starter and is coming off the best season of his career, so Manning may not match or surpass those contract figures.

What do you think? Will Manning sign a new contract with the Giants before the season, after the season, or not at all? Assuming he re-ups with New York, will Manning match Roethlisberger’s $21.85MM annual salary? Jump into the comment section below to voice your thoughts and opinions. We look forward to hearing what you have to say.

Largest 2015 Cap Hits By Team: NFC North

June 29th, 2015 at 1:50pm CST by Luke Adams

Between now and the start of NFL training camps, we’ll be taking a closer look at the top 2015 cap hits for teams around the league. We began our series last week by focusing on the NFC East and AFC East divisions, and today we’ll head up to the NFC North.

Listed below are the top 10 cap hits for the coming season for each of the four NFC North franchises, accompanied by some observations on the spending habits of those clubs. Let’s dive in….

Chicago Bears:

Jay Cutler, QB: $16,500,000
Jared Allen, DE/OLB: $12,500,000
Matt Forte, RB: $9,200,000
Jermon Bushrod, LT: $8,050,000
Lamarr Houston, DE/OLB: $6,990,000
Pernell McPhee, OLB: $6,675,000
Martellus Bennett, TE: $6,125,000
Brandon Marshall, WR: $5,625,000 (dead money)
Eddie Royal, WR: $5,500,000
Tim Jennings, CB: $5,250,000
Total: $77,690,000

There are a couple missteps among the Bears’ top cap hits, but most of the players on this list are expected to be key contributors in the 2015 season, which is more than can be said for some teams. Still, it’s fair to wonder if the Bears would’ve made such big commitments to Allen and Houston if they knew they’d be bringing in a 3-4 defensive coordinator (Vic Fangio) this year — I’m guessing not.

The placement of two wideouts near the bottom of the Chicago top 10 is also worth noting. Marshall’s dead money charge couldn’t be avoided once the club decided to move on from him, but how effective will Royal be replacing Marshall’s production? His contract raised a few eyebrows around the league this offseason, as the Bears seem to be counting heavily on the veteran receiver recreating the rapport he had with Cutler back in Denver.

While offseason signees McPhee and Royal earn spots on this list, two players in the top 10 are seeking new contracts, as both Forte and Bennett skipped OTAs this spring. Bennett still has a couple years left on his deal, while Forte is entering a contract year.

Detroit Lions:

Calvin Johnson, WR: $20,558,000
Matthew Stafford, QB: $17,721,250
Ndamukong Suh, DT: $9,737,500 (dead money)
Haloti Ngata, DT: $8,500,000
Stephen Tulloch, LB: $5,800,000
Golden Tate, WR: $5,350,000
Ezekiel Ansah, DE: $5,071,228
DeAndre Levy, LB: $4,500,000
Jason Jones, DE: $3,983,334
Chris Houston, CB: $3,900,000 (dead money)
Total: $85,121,312

No team we’ve examined so far has a combined top-10 cap number higher than the Lions’ $85MM+ figure. That amount is heavily impacted by the team’s “big three” of Johnson, Stafford, and Suh. Considering Suh counts for nearly $10MM against Detroit’s cap even now that he’s not on the team, it’s scary to think what his cap hit might have looked like in 2015 and future years if he had been re-signed.

Despite Suh’s departure, the Lions are still investing a significant chunk of cap space into their defensive line, with Ngata, Ansah, and Jones also in the top 10. With the Pro Bowler gone, it remains to be seen how productive that line can be going forward.

Given the two dead-money charges in Detroit’s top 10, along with the presence of multiple players coming back from injury-plagued 2014 campaigns, you could make the case that the Lions’ top 10 cap numbers are the worst of any in the NFC North — we’ll see if that catches up to the club this year on the heels of a successful 2014 season.

Green Bay Packers:

Aaron Rodgers, QB: $18,250,000
Clay Matthews, OLB: $12,700,000
Julius Peppers, DE/OLB: $12,000,000
Sam Shields, CB: $9,062,500
Josh Sitton, G: $7,000,000
T.J. Lang, G: $5,800,000
Randall Cobb, WR: $5,350,000
Morgan Burnett, S: $5,131,250
Jordy Nelson, WR: $4,600,000
Mike Neal, DL: $4,250,000
Total: $84,143,750

The total cap cost of the Packers’ top 10 charges nearly equals that of the Lions, but Green Bay’s list is devoid of any dead money, and half of these players earned Pro Bowl spots last season. Two of those Pro Bowlers were Cobb and Nelson, whose cap hits will be on the rise after the 2015 season, with Cobb’s increasing to $12.75MM by 2017, while Nelson’s will be $11.55MM that same year.

Rodgers’ $18.25MM cap number represents the second-largest charge in the division for 2015, and bumps up Green Bay’s combined top-10 total, but the perennial MVP candidate is still a bargain at that price. There’s no doubt that any NFL team would rather carry Rodgers at $18.25MM than Stafford at $17.72MM or Cutler at $16.5MM.

A $12MM cap hit for a defensive player entering his age-35 season typically isn’t a great use of space, but Peppers was impressive in his first year in Green Bay, forcing six fumbles and returning two interceptions for touchdowns, in addition to recording seven sacks — he ranked as Pro Football Focus’ seventh-best 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014 (subscription required), so that cap number is manageable.

Minnesota Vikings:

Adrian Peterson, RB: $15,400,000
Mike Wallace, WR: $9,900,000
Everson Griffen, DE: $8,200,000
John Sullivan, C: $7,333,333
Phil Loadholt, RT: $6,750,000
Kyle Rudolph, TE: $6,440,625
Matt Kalil, LT: $6,290,644
Greg Jennings, WR: $6,000,000 (dead money)
Brian Robison, DE: $5,650,000
Chad Greenway, LB: $5,575,000
Total: $77,539,602

The fact that Teddy Bridgewater is so inexpensive for the Vikings means they can allocate their cap room to other positions, and the team’s top-10 list is heavy on offensive skill players and offensive and defensive linemen. The list also features a mix of good and bad investments.

Among those bad investments: Jennings, who will count for $6MM in dead money against the club’s cap after being released earlier in the offseason. He and Wallace will combine for a cap number of nearly $16MM, which is way too much to pay for two veteran receivers whose best years may be behind them, particularly when one’s not even on the roster anymore. The Vikes will hope a change of scenery rejuvenates Wallace, but the former Steeler didn’t put up No. 1 receiver numbers in Miami.

Peterson is the most interesting case, sitting atop the Vikings’ top-10 list by a comfortable margin. The former MVP was still one of the league’s best running backs, if not the best, the last time we saw him on the field. But $15.4MM is a huge cap hit for any running back, and Peterson is 30 years old and coming off a lost season. It’s no wonder he wants to get a portion of his 2016 salary guaranteed — a down year could spell the end of Peterson’s time in Minnesota, given his pricey cap charge.

Information from Over the Cap was used in the creation of this post.

The Confusing Stance Of Michael Bennett

June 28th, 2015 at 9:01pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Ever since a rumor was floated in March claiming Seahawks defensive lineman Michael Bennett was seeking a trade to the Falcons, the 29-year-old’s displeasure with his current contract has been well-documented. After clarifying that he did not want to be dealt, Bennett allowed that he was angling for a new contract, and explained his reasoning:

“[I’m] somewhere near the top seven at my position, top eight at my position. Not a lot of guys play inside and out (meaning both tackle and end). Not a lot of guys do what I do. So I feel like I should be somewhere near there… I just want to be [paid] in the realm of the guys that play like me. There are only so many guys that do what I do, and I would love to be like somewhere in there where they are at.’’

That’s certainly sound logic. Bennett is one of the best 4-3 defensive ends in the league, and his contract does not match his production, as his $7.125MM annual salary places him just 13th at his position. There is no question that he’s underpaid. But that fact doesn’t help answer some key questions: Couldn’t this situation have been completely avoided? Why did Bennett accept this contract from Seattle in the first place?

Let’s go back to the free agent period of 2014. Bennett had just finished his first season in Seattle, during which he earned just $4.8MM while grading out as the league’s fifth-best 4-3 defensive end, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He was a key contributor on Seattle’s Super Bowl-winning defense, lining up at several different spots along the defensive line, and was ranked third by PFF’s pass rush productivity metric. After being forced to settle for a one-year deal the year prior, Bennett was set up to break the bank.

Leading up to the opening of free agency, pundits believed that Bennett would be line for a deal that paid him, at the very minimum, $8MM per season, and most figured he would easily top that figure. In naming Bennett the No. 1 free agent of 2014, PFR’s Luke Adams estimated that, in the right situation, Bennett could secure $9-10MM annually.

Bennett indicated that he would not be open to giving the Seahawks a hometown discount, and there wasn’t any reason he should’ve, as the list of suitors who were reportedly interested in his services was lengthy. The Raiders, Jaguars, Bears, and 49ers were among the clubs who expressed some level of interest in signing Bennett, and a report on March 9 even listed Chicago as the favorites to land Bennett.

But just one day later, on March 10, Bennett re-signed with Seattle without ever officially reaching free agency. The first reports to roll on regarding Bennett’s contract details said he would earn between $8-8.5MM per season, and in our post on the transaction, Luke wrote that Bennett probably could have gotten more than that on the open market. But when the actual specifics came in less than an hour later, we learned that Bennett would earn just slightly more than $7MM a year.

The total seemed substantially low from the outset, and Bennett claimed he turned down larger offers from two clubs, one of whom was the Bears — Bennett said Chicago not only offered him more money, but “way more money.” In the days to come, the Bears found a consolation prize in Jared Allen, who not only hadn’t posted the same level of recent production that Bennett had, but was four years his senior. Despite those detriments, Allen was able to secure a four-year, $32MM deal, averaging nearly $1MM more per season than Bennett.

Of course, that deal was signed after Bennett had already re-upped with Seattle, but that doesn’t mean there weren’t precedents available. Everson Griffen, who had only one season of elite production, re-signed with the Vikings the day before Bennett reached his agreement. Griffen’s five-year deal was scheduled to pay him $42.5MM, almost $1.5MM more per year than Bennett. Griffen was two years younger than Bennett, but the production gap between the two should have made up that difference.

“People assume when you ask for a little more money, they assume that you want to be traded or something like that,” Bennett said last month. “But that’s not what I’m trying to go for.” The Seahawks have a policy of not discussing contracts with players who have more than one year left on their deal, a policy that Bennett is surely abreast of. Now that he is threatening to hold out, it’s fair to wonder exactly what Bennett expects the outcome of this situation to be. As PFR’s Rory Parks wrote in that linked post, perhaps Seattle would be willing to rework some portion of Bennett’s deal as they did for Marshawn Lynch last year — but even Lynch did not get a full restructure.

But the point that I presented at the outset stands: Bennett is absolutely correct that he is underpaid. He should be making at least $1MM more per season, and even $2MM or $3MM more per year wouldn’t be out of the question. But given that he signed the deal just last year, never allowed himself to officially hit free agency, and reportedly turned down money from several clubs, Bennett really only has himself to blame.

2015 Release Candidates: NFC East

June 28th, 2015 at 4:28pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Most clubs have fairly set rosters at this point, as OTA, minicamp, and preseason performances won’t do much to alter roster composition. The majority of key releases came in March, but there are still several scenarios where certain contributors could lose their roster spot in the coming months. For the most part, we’ll focus on situations where the cap savings would be in excess of $1MM.

Because free agency has already passed, financial ramifications won’t play a huge role in these decisions; there aren’t a ton of high-profile free agents on which to spend that saved money, so these calls will mostly be made based on performance. However, any cap space saved through these potential releases could be rolled over into 2016, so that’s something clubs have to consider.

After looking at the AFC East yesterday, let’s dive into the NFC East…

Dallas Cowboys:

Mackenzy Bernadeau, G: The 29-year-old Bernadeau renegotiated his contract last spring, accepting a $2.9MM pay cut in the process. After Dallas selected Zack Martin in last year’s draft, Bernadeau went on to act in a reserve role, and saw only 75 snaps. Now that undrafted free agent La’El Collins is penciled in as the starting left guard, incumbent Ronald Leary will be demoted to act as the top reserve interior lineman, further limiting Bernadeau’s role. The Cowboys could save $1.5MM by releasing him, but I think they’ll keep him around for depth purposes. Prediction: not released.
Brandon Carr, CB: It’s been a strange offseason for the Cowboys and Carr, as he indicated in March that he would not accept a pay cut, a stance that Dallas has seemingly accepted. However, owner Jerry Jones has continued to say that the club wants to lower Carr’s cap number (presumably through an extension), but given Carr’s subpar play, I’m not sure tacking on extra years to his deal would be wise. The Cowboys have decent cornerback depth after drafting Byron Jones in the first round, but Jerry Jones has been adamant that the team won’t release Carr. Prediction: not released.

New York Giants:

Jameel McClain, LB: Entering the final season of a two-year deal, McClain could be on the chopping block due to both his salary and his performance. The 29-year-old actually played the second-most snaps among Giants defenders, but graded in the bottom 10 among inside linebackers league-wide, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Additionally, he’s scheduled to count for $3.4MM on New York’s cap in 2015; the club could clear all but $300K of that total by releasing him. The Giants are near the bottom of the NFL in terms of cap space, and they might want a little extra room to make moves throughout the season, so creating a little space here and there through moves like cutting McClain could be in the making. Prediction: released.
Linebacker Jon Beason and defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins each agreed to contract restructures both involved straight pay cuts) earlier this year, or else they likely would have been released.

Philadelphia Eagles:

Riley Cooper, WR: The Eagles don’t have a ton of obvious cut candidates, and Cooper is the only veteran whose roster spot might come into question. (I thought about adding fellow pass-catcher Miles Austin here, but the club handed him $1MM in guarantees, so he’s probably a good bet to make the final 53.) Cooper took a big step back from his excellent 2014 season, as his yards per reception dropped from 17.8 to 10.5. He doesn’t figure to be a big part of Philadelphia’s offense, but given that the team would incur $3.8MM in dead money (as opposed to just $1MM in savings) by releasing him, Cooper will probably stick around for one more season. Prediction: not released.

Washington:

DeAngelo Hall: Hall agreed to tweak his contact earlier this year, eliminating the $1MM in salary guarantees he was originally due. He can still earn the same $4MM base salary that he was originally due, but Washington is now off the hook if they decide Hall isn’t not fully recovered from two Achilles tears. Washington has decent corner depth following the signing of Chris Cullier, so Hall isn’t necessarily needed. But the club would save only $2.375MM while incurring $2.438MM in dead money by cutting Hall. Prediction: not released.
Pierre Garcon, WR: Garcon’s rate stats stayed similar from 2013 to 2014, but his counting stats took a nosedive following the addition of DeSean Jackson. Still, he’s probably not in any real danger of being released — head coach Jay Gruden has been adamant that Garcon is in the club’s plans, and as of February the team hadn’t reached out to his representatives about restructuring his contract. Washington could save $7.5MM by releasing Garcon, however, so I’m guessing it’s a move that has at least been discussed internally. Prediction: not released.
Kedric Golston, DE: The 32-year-old Golston didn’t play much last season (182 snaps), but still managed to rack up poor -14.3 grade from PFF. The addition of Ricky Jean-Francois means that Golston will see even less time in 2015, and there’s really no reason for the club to pay his $1MM base salary; Washington can save $1.075MM by cutting him. Prediction: released.

PFR Originals: 6/21/15 – 6/28/15

June 28th, 2015 at 2:59pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past seven days:

The period between minicamp and training camp is usually very quiet, but in today’s NFL, there truly is no offseason. With that in mind, Luke Adams went over some storylines to keep in mind before training camp begins. Among them: Greg Hardy and Tom Brady‘s appeal decisions; the July 15 deadline for franchise-tagged players to sign long-term deals; and the three remaining unsigned draft picks.
Most of the high-profile free agents came off the board in March, but there are still some interesting players left unsigned, including the recently-released Evan Mathis, whom I ranked as the No. 1 available free agent. Jake Long, Jermaine Gresham, James Jones, and others also make the list.
Luke looked at the largest 2015 cap hits by position last week, and in the same vein, I examined the largest 2015 cap charges by position group among both offensive and defensive positions.
Also on the topic of salary cap figures, Luke began delving into the numbers division-by-division, going over the largest 2015 cap numbers for the NFC East and the AFC East.
Bills defensive tackle Marcell Dareus will be suspended for the first game of the 2015 season, but he’s still an excellent candidate for an extension. Luke fully examined the possibility, and used Buccaneers defensive tackle Gerald McCoy‘s contract as a comparison for Dareus.
A total of 30 restricted free agents will play out the 2015 season under one-year deals, and Luke sorted them into buckets, separating between those who signed second-round tenders and those who signed original round/right of first refusal tenders.
There will surely be some veteran players released between now and the beginning and the start of the season, and I began examining those candidates for release, starting with the AFC East clubs.
We continued our new Community Tailgate series, posting topics of note and opening up the floor for discussion. The subjects covered by Zach Links, Luke, and Sam Robinson:
- The best remaining free agent outside of Evan Mathis (link)
- The Jets quarterback situation (link)
- Russell Wilson‘s contract (link)
- The Peyton Manning trade rumors (link)
- The Texans quarterback competition (link)

Largest 2015 Cap Hits By Position Group: Defense

June 27th, 2015 at 6:04pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Earlier this offseason, our Luke Adams examined the largest 2014 cap hits by position on both offense and defense, scrutinizing the most expensive individual cap charges for next year. The list that follows, while along the same lines, tabulates the largest cap hits by position group. Some overlap in the lists is unavoidable — if a single player has an exorbitant cap charge, it will inevitably raise the team’s cap hit for his position as a whole. After taking a look at positional group spending on offense earlier this week, we’ll examine defensive cap figures here.

Defensive line:

Rams, $47.679MM
Bills, $40.263MM
Jaguars, $37.876MM

The Bills’ inclusion on the defensive line section of this list could be followed by an asterisk, as Over the Cap’s data designates Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes — both of whom will likely play mostly, if not exclusively, at linebacker — as lineman. Exclude their two cap figures, and the Seahawks move into the top three among DL spending.
The clubs listed above (again, assigning Williams/Hughes as lineman) are three of six in the league that count three or more defensive lineman among their top 10 cap hits. The others? Miami, Tennessee, and Minnesota.
Unless a restructure occurs, the Dolphins will certainly place highly here in 2016, when Ndamukong Suh‘s cap charge will balloon to $28.6MM, currently projected as the highest figure in the NFL.
Another team that might stake a claim to fielding the league’s best defensive line — the Jets — rank just 19th in DL spending, thanks to Muhammad Wilkerson playing on a fifth-year option, Damon Harrison on a RFA tender, and Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams still under their rookie contracts.

Linebacker:

Colts, $33.599MM
Packers, $31.861MM
Chiefs, $30.726MM

At linebacker, we clearly see the impact of scheme differentiation, as clubs that employ 3-4 fronts — and therefore, pass-rushing outside linebackers — make up the majority of the top 10 in linebacker spending. In fact, the only among exception among the top 10 teams is the Bengals, at No. 9.
Conversely, eight of the bottom 10 teams in LB spending predominately use 4-3 schemes, and each of the outliers — the Bills and the Bears — only recently switched to 3-4 looks following coaching staff overhauls.
It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Kansas City moves out of the top three before the beginning of the season, as the club could work out an extension with franchise player Justin Houston (and thus lower his 2015 cap hit), and potentially release veteran Derrick Johnson, who was injured for the majority of last season and is set to count $5.25MM against the Chiefs’ books.

Cornerback:

Jets, $32.993MM
Cowboys, $27.857MM
Browns, $25.628MM

The most interesting section of the cornerback list at at the bottom, where the Patriots, one season after bringing two high-profile corners en route to a Super Bowl title, will use the least cap space on CBs of any club in the league, at just $6.531MM. None of the cover men brought in to replace Darrelle Revis or Brandon Browner has a cap charge in excess of $2.5MM, as Bradley Fletcher‘s $2.131MM number is the highest among New England corners.
While Revis’ deal with the Jets is somewhat frontloaded — his cap figure rises by $1MM in 2016 before decreasing in each of the next two seasons — fellow free agent additions Antonio Cromartie and Buster Skrine‘s cap numbers stay relatively stable, sitting between $7MM and $9MM for the duration of their contracts. As such, expect to see Gang Green on this list for the next few years, at least.
The Bills were the No. 1 team in the league against the pass last season, according to Football Outsiders, but they rank just 13th in cornerback spending, thanks in part to several key contributors still playing on rookie deals, and two veterans — Corey Graham and Leodis McKelvin playing under affordable deals, each with a 2015 cap hit of less than $5MM.

Safety:

Seahawks, $15.56MM
Raiders, $14.433MM
Dolphins, $13.772MM

Oakland is pushed to the No. 2 spot thanks to the signing of former Eagle Nate Allen, an addition questioned by many pundits. He’ll count for $7MM in year one of his deal, good for third on the the club and seventh among safeties league-wide.
The Patriots re-signed Devin McCourty to a contract that makes him the second-highest paid safety in terms of AAV, but New England ranks 13th in safety spending in 2015, thanks to the backloaded nature of McCourty’s deal. His cap charges from 2015 to 2019 continually rise, from $6MM, $8MM, $10MM, $11MM, and finally $12.5MM.

Information from Over the Cap was used in the creation of this post.

Community Tailgate: Texans QB Situation

June 26th, 2015 at 5:42pm CST by Sam Robinson

We’re still a few months away from the start of battles on the NFL gridiron, but there’s no offseason when it comes to debate amongst fans. This week, we’ve launched a new series here at PFR that will be known as the Community Tailgate. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. Every weekday, we’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Until this week’s possibly apocryphal discussion of Peyton Manning returning to the AFC South, we hadn’t heard a ton on the subject of the Texans’ quarterback situation. The spot’s been in relatively unsteady hands since former Pro Bowler Matt Schaub‘s rapid swoon helped sink the Texans, who were one Week 17 win away from home-field advantage in 2012, into ownership of the top spot in the Jadeveon Clowney sweepstakes during a 2-14 campaign in 2013. And since, the team’s addressed its biggest need area with essential but unspectacular moves. From what turned out to be a one-year rental of Ryan Fitzpatrick before trading the journeyman to the Jets, to selecting Tom Savage in the fourth round last year, to now creating a derby between ex-Tom Brady understudies Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer that doesn’t have many NFL pundits revved up.

He of a 7-6 record last season before being replaced by Johnny Manziel in Cleveland, Hoyer signed a two-year contract worth $10.5MM ($4.75MM guaranteed). Despite far less in-game seasoning in two career starts (both coming last season), Mallett re-signed on a two-year, $7MM deal shortly after to create a strange scenario where a team signs both of its potential starting signal-callers in free agency. The 29-year-old Hoyer is the 21st-highest-paid quarterback in 2015, per OverTheCap, while Mallett, 27, ranks as one of the league’s best-compensated backups in the event Hoyer can beat out the former third-round pick. Despite neither completing passes at a rate higher than 55 percent last year, Hoyer and Mallett were two of the most coveted QBs in a barren veteran class. Yet the Texans acted quickly to sign each, signifying what may again be a dire scenario for a team that re-routed its fortunes back to respectability behind a strong running game and the league’s best defensive player.

The Texans’ defense, which ranked seventh in points yielded in 2014, will aid the winner of this battle. But Houston could still be restricted by limited quarterback play. Longtime Houston Chronicle scribe John McClain notes of each player’s minicamp progression in Bill O’Brien‘s offense with which both Hoyer and Mallett are familiar (Hoyer spent three years under O’Brien in New England). McClain calls Hoyer the safer option, with Mallett presenting “terrific” upside.

So, which which of these ex-Patriots should get the chance to lead the Houston offense this season? Does the 6-foot-6 Mallett’s possibly greater potential need to finally be either validated or exposed as flawed thinking, or should the 6-3 Hoyer’s experience winning in a Browns offense devoid of much weaponry warrant the first shot at the Texans’ gig? Does this become a revolving-door scenario where each jostle for the job all season, or does O’Brien have the patience to let one develop behind a solid offensive line? Let us know what you think in the comments section below.

NFL Storylines To Watch Before Training Camp

June 26th, 2015 at 10:37am CST by Luke Adams

The period between June minicamps and the start of NFL training camps is typically the quietest time of the year for the league. However, even during these weeks when many coaches, players, and NFL writers are on vacation, there are still plenty of stories to keep an eye on, proving that the NFL is truly a year-round league.

Here are a few storylines worth keeping an eye on as we wait for 2015 training camps to get underway:

Greg Hardy‘s and Tom Brady‘s appeal decisions
As Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk points out, the fact that we’ve been waiting more than four weeks for arbitrator Harold Henderson to make a decision on whether or not to uphold Hardy’s 10-game suspension suggests that we shouldn’t expect quick resolution in Brady’s case either. The CBA gives arbitrators wiggle room to take their time when making these decisions, but I expect we’ll get an announcement on Hardy very soon, and it’d be a surprise if Roger Goodell hadn’t made a ruling on Brady by the time training camps begin.

The July 15 franchise tag extension deadline
Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Justin Houston, and Jason Pierre-Paul have yet to sign their one-year franchise-tag tenders, and all four players are seeking long-term agreements. If that’s going to happen this year, it’ll have to get done by July 15, so we can expect teams to ramp up extension negotiations over the next couple weeks. If any – or all – of these players don’t sign multiyear contracts by July 15, they’ll have to play on a one-year deal for 2015, if they intend to play at all.

The three remaining unsigned draft picks
The current CBA has essentially made rookie holdouts a thing of the past, since salaries and bonuses are slotted fairly rigorously. However, there are still a few details in those rookie contracts for teams, players, and agents to hammer out, and two AFC South teams have yet to lock up all their draftees. As our tracker shows, the Colts have yet to sign two third-rounders, cornerback D’Joun Smith and defensive end Henry Anderson, while the Titans haven’t got No. 2 overall pick Marcus Mariota under contract. I think all three players will have reached agreements by the time their respective teams’ training camps start, but Mariota is worth keeping an eye on, since Titans GM Ruston Webster recently said it’s not a big deal if a player misses a few days of camp.

Evan Mathis and other notable free agents
While Evan Mathis is the most coveted veteran player on the open market, there are several other interesting names available, many of whom could be snatched up as teams finalize their camp rosters. PFR’s Dallas Robinson recently published his list of the best available remaining free agents, identifying tackle Jake Long, tight end Jermaine Gresham, wide receiver James Jones, and pass rusher Dwight Freeney as a few of the top options.

Russell Wilson and other notable extension candidates
Wilson has received more attention than just about any other extension candidate, since his contract will expire at season’s end, and he could become the NFL’s highest-paid player, as we discussed yesterday. But there are plenty of other noteworthy players who could be extended by their teams before training camps get underway, including Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers, Bills defensive tackle Marcell Dareus, Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones, and many others.

The Los Angeles situation
No major decisions on Los Angeles are expected to be made within the next few weeks, considering the NFL’s next meeting on the situation isn’t scheduled to happen until August 11. Still, it seems as if every day there are new updates on the stadium situations in Oakland, San Diego, and St. Louis. The latest sign of possible forward movement for the NFL’s return to Los Angeles came this morning, as the league began formally exploring temporary venues in the L.A. area for 2016.

Are there any other storylines we’ve left out of our list that you’ll be watching over the next few weeks? Let us know in the comment section!

Community Tailgate: Russell Wilson’s Contract

June 25th, 2015 at 3:50pm CST by Luke Adams

Today, we’re taking a look at what has been one of the biggest ongoing stories of the offseason: Russell Wilson‘s future in Seattle. Wilson and the Seahawks have discussed a contract extension as the Pro Bowler enters the final year of his rookie deal, but no agreement is imminent, and there’s a growing sense that Wilson is willing to play out the 2015 season without a new contract in place.

Earlier today, Jason Cole of Bleacher Report (video link) indicated that agent Mark Rodgers is looking to make his client the NFL’s highest-paid player, attempting to surpass the five-year, $110MM deal signed by Aaron Rogers in 2013. According to Cole, Wilson’s agent believes that quarterback contracts will “explode” in the near future, with Andrew Luck, Eli Manning, and Rodgers (again) exceeding $22MM per year on their next contracts as well.

It would be a challenge to make a case that Wilson is a better NFL quarterback than Rodgers, but he doesn’t necessarily have to be better to land a contract that exceeds Rodgers’ deal with Green Bay. After all, the salary cap has risen by nearly $20MM since Rodgers signed his extension, and it’s poised to continue growing next year. When Rodgers landed a $22MM annual salary, that amount represented nearly 18% of the 2013 cap. That same percentage of 2015’s salary cap would work out to a per-year salary of about $25.63MM.

Of course, just because Wilson and his agent believe his value exceeds $22MM annually, that doesn’t mean the Seahawks agree, or that the team has to meet those salary demands. Seattle could hold off on an extension, with the option of using the franchise tag in each of the next two years to keep Wilson off the free agent market.

We want to hear your thoughts on these contract negotiations. Should the Seahawks make Wilson the NFL’s highest-paid player? Or should the team balk at his reported asking price, going year-to-year and perhaps eventually letting him walk instead? Jump into the comment section below to voice your thoughts and opinions. We look forward to hearing what you have to say.

Largest 2015 Cap Hits By Team: AFC East

June 25th, 2015 at 1:11pm CST by Luke Adams

Between now and the start of NFL training camps, we’ll be taking a closer look at the top 2015 cap hits for teams around the league. We began our series yesterday by focusing on the NFC East, and we’ll tackle the other East division today, as we move over to the AFC.

Listed below are the top 10 cap hits for the coming season for each of the four AFC East franchises, accompanied by some observations on the spending habits of those clubs. Let’s dive in….

Buffalo Bills:

Mario Williams, DE/OLB: $19,400,000
Marcell Dareus, DT: $8,060,000
Kyle Williams, DL: $6,950,000
Eric Wood, C: $6,650,000
Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB: $6,175,000
LeSean McCoy, RB: $5,500,000
Charles Clay, TE: $5,000,000
Leodis McKelvin, CB: $4,900,000
Matt Cassel, QB: $4,750,000
Sammy Watkins, WR: $4,530,819
Total: $71,915,819

Mario Williams’ massive 2015 cap number is one of the highest in the entire NFL, and it won’t get any easier to stomach next year, when it jumps to $19.9MM. The figures make Williams a candidate to be released or to have his deal restructured if his production falls off, but he’s coming off an All-Pro season, so the Bills are likely content to carry that cap number for now, particularly with only one other player above $7MM.

While Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, Dareus, and Hughes may see their roles change this year in a new defensive scheme, the four players were all defensive linemen in 2014, so it’s interesting that they all rank in Buffalo’s top five cap hits this year. Rex Ryan and defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman will certainly enjoy working with the talented, albeit costly, group of front-seven players.

The Bills’ top-10 list also features a number of new additions, with McCoy, Clay, and Cassel all having joined the club this offseason, while Hughes signed a brand-new contract. The cap charges for McCoy, Clay, and Hughes will all rise significantly in future seasons — after totaling a combined $16.675MM cap charge in 2015, the trio will count for a combined $28.75MM against the Bills’ cap next year.

Miami Dolphins:

Branden Albert, LT: $10,725,000
Cameron Wake, DE: $10,450,000
Brent Grimes, CB: $10,000,000
Reshad Jones, S: $7,712,942
Mike Pouncey, C: $7,000,000
Mike Wallace, WR: $6,600,000 (dead money)
Dannell Ellerbe, LB: $6,400,000 (dead money)
Ndamukong Suh, DT: $6,100,000
Ryan Tannehill, QB: $4,873,364
Dion Jordan, DE/OLB: $4,682,276
Total: $74,543,582

Many of the largest contracts on the Dolphins’ books have relatively modest cap numbers this year — Pouncey and Tannehill earn spots on this list, but they’ll almost certainly place higher in 2016, when their cap charges jump to $10MM+. As for Suh, his cap hit will soar to a staggering $28.6MM next season. With $157MM+ already committed to their top 51 players for 2016, the Dolphins will have some decisions to make next year.

In 2016, the team will also have to try to avoid the sort of dead money charges they’re carrying this year. Wallace and Ellerbe both earn top-seven spots here, and Brian Hartline‘s $4.2MM dead money hit nearly cracked the top 10 as well. Jordan’s cap charge might as well be dead money too, since the former third overall pick has been suspended for the season.

Despite some questionable entries within their top 10 cap hits, the Dolphins are optimistic about their chances in 2015, and that can be partially attributed to their talented and inexpensive offensive skill players — Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills, and Lamar Miller count for just over $3MM in total against the 2015 cap.

New England Patriots:

Tom Brady, QB: $14,000,000
Rob Gronkowski, TE: $8,650,000
Nate Solder, LT: $7,438,000
Sebastian Vollmer, RT: $7,020,833
Jerod Mayo, LB: $6,100,000
Devin McCourty, S: $6,000,000
Darrelle Revis, CB: $5,000,000 (dead money)
Rob Ninkovich, DE: $4,750,000
Julian Edelman, WR: $4,656,250
Stephen Gostkowski, K: $4,590,000
Total: $68,205,083

Brady didn’t rank among the NFL’s top 2015 cap hits for quarterbacks, but he’s still atop the Patriots’ own list by a comfortable margin. For a team coming off a Super Bowl victory though, there aren’t many highly-priced players on New England’s roster, a reflection of the way the team manages its cap — the $68MM total for the Pats’ top 10 cap hits of ’15 is the lowest figure in the AFC East.

Of course, while the Patriots manage their cap well, that doesn’t mean that this is simply a list of their 10 best players. Revis shows up here after New England declined his option, the price the team had to pay for his one year of service. Additionally, the Pats are the only team we’ve seen so far with a kicker in their top 10, and even ones at talented at Gostkowski rarely have cap numbers this high.

New York Jets:

Darrelle Revis, CB: $16,000,000
D’Brickashaw Ferguson, LT: $11,698,670
Nick Mangold, C: $10,407,100
Brandon Marshall, WR: $9,000,000
David Harris, LB: $7,500,000
Antonio Cromartie, CB: $7,000,000
Muhammad Wilkerson, DL: $6,969,000
Eric Decker, WR: $6,500,000
Breno Giacomini, RT: $5,125,000
Dee Milliner, CB: $3,453,028
Total: $83,652,798

John Idzik may not have been the general manager the Jets needed to lead the franchise back to the playoffs, but he did a good job managing the cap — New York has less than $3.5MM in dead money on its 2015 cap, which allowed the team to spend big in free agency this offseason. By comparison, the Bills have $7MM+ in dead money on their 2015 cap, the Pats have nearly $14MM, and the Dolphins are carrying over $22MM.

All the Jets’ cap room allowed the team to frontload contracts for its big free agent additions like Revis, who shows up on two separate top-10 lists in this division. Marshall and Cromartie also arrived within the last few months, while Harris signed a new contract with the team.

One name to watch from this list going forward is Wilkerson, who could be a fixture among the Jets’ top cap charges for the next few years if he signs an extension with the team. After drafting Leonard Williams sixth overall, however, the Jets are certainly under less pressure to pay Wilkerson a massive salary.

Committing nearly $84MM in cap room to the players on this list, the Jets’ total top-10 cap hit is the highest we’ve seen yet, but that can be attributed in large part to the fact that the team simply had space to burn, having carried over plenty of room from 2014. Most of those deals shouldn’t come back to haunt the franchise down the road.

Information from Over the Cap was used in the creation of this post.

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