50-50 Chance That Sean Payton Coaches In 2023?
Sean Payton is perhaps the hottest name in this year’s head coaching cycle, and he has been connected to three teams currently in need of a new HC. He will at least take an interview with the Broncos — an opening that he reportedly prefers to the Texans’ and Cardinals’ vacancies — but he may opt against returning to the sidelines in 2023.
Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk hears that whether Payton takes a coaching job this year or waits until 2024 is a 50-50 proposition. Although Payton is said to be amenable to working with Denver quarterback Russell Wilson and helping him to regain his earlier form, it is also possible that more attractive opportunities are on the horizon.
Indeed, in the wake of the Chargers’ historic collapse in their stunning wildcard round loss to the Jaguars on Saturday night, there was rampant speculation that the Bolts might elect to fire second-year HC Brandon Staley and enter the Payton sweepstakes. For his part, Payton is said to be deeply interested in the Chargers’ gig and the opportunity to work with talented young quarterback Justin Herbert.
On the other hand, there are reasons to doubt that Los Angeles would make such a bold move. As former NFL exec Andrew Brandt observes, while the Broncos’ new ownership group is the wealthiest in the league and could therefore afford to pay Payton the $16MM-$20MM salary he will likely command, Chargers owner Dean Spanos is among the most cash-poor and may be unwilling to pony up that kind of cash while also paying out the remainder of Staley’s contract (Twitter link).
Plus, Herbert himself is now extension-eligible and could be in line for a contract with a $50MM AAV. That is a lot of money for Spanos to stomach, to say nothing of the trade compensation that the Chargers would need to send to the Saints to acquire Payton’s rights.
As of the time of this writing, there have been no concrete reports on Staley’s job security in the wake of the loss to Jacksonville. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones recently said that Dallas’ current head coach, Mike McCarthy, is in no danger of losing his job, regardless of what happens in the team’s wildcard round contest against the Bucs on Monday. Still, one wonders whether a poor showing by McCarthy’s troops could change that thinking, especially given the long-rumored connections between Payton and the Cowboys’ post.
Texans WR John Metchie III Making Strides In Recovery
Rookie second-round pick John Metchie III knew he faced a long road to his NFL debut after tearing his ACL in last year’s SEC title game. Little did he know he would be faced with a much larger challenge as he prepared for his big return. Metchie’s diagnosis of Acute Promyelocytic Luekemia would hold him out of training camp, the preseason, and his entire rookie season. Fortunately, the long road appears to be winding down as Texans general manager Nick Caserio announced that Metchie has made “amazing” progress, according to Texans TV Host Drew Dougherty. 
Caserio hinted that Metchie’s return could come as soon as April. “I’d say there’s a chance that he’ll be ready for the start of the offseason program,” Caserio told Seth Payne and Sean Pendergast on SportRadio 610 this week. Since the Texans, who fired Lovie Smith this week, will have a new head coach in 2023, they will get to begin their offseason conditioning program two weeks before teams with returning head coaches. That means Metchie could be back working out with the team as soon as April 3.
“I think there are still some things that he has to complete or go through,” Caserio continued. “Quite frankly, it’s amazing what he’s done to this point…He actually looks better now than he did when we drafted him in the spring. He’s improved his strength. He’s improved his lower body strength. His attitude has been great, even though he’s been dealing with a lot of things medically.”
While Metchie had originally described his APL as the most curable form of the disease in the statement announcing his diagnosis, it’s still great news to hear that he’s coming back on the other side of it stronger than he started. After a long, hard road, Metchie’s NFL debut is back on track.
Texans Request HC Interview With Rams’ Thomas Brown
Although they will join the other head coach-needy teams in the Sean Payton sweepstakes, the Texans otherwise have identified a type of coach they will covet during their latest pursuit. They will aim to have another young assistant on their docket.
The team sent out a request to interview Rams tight ends coach Thomas Brown, Tom Pelissero of NFL.com tweets. Brown is a new name on this year’s coaching carousel, and this is the Sean McVay staffer’s first known opportunity to interview for an NFL HC gig.
Brown, however, was on the radar for Arizona State’s HC position recently and interviewed for the Rams’ offensive coordinator job last year. He has been on McVay’s staff since since 2020. Brown, 36, has only been in the NFL since that point; prior to the 2020s, he spent nearly a decade as a college assistant. This represents quite the rise for Brown, who spent his first two years with the Rams as their running backs coach. But he has generated praise as a rising candidate.
The Rams also have Brown on the radar for their OC role, one Liam Coen vacated officially this week by returning to Kentucky. McVay has not determined if he will return for a seventh season. That obviously overshadows everything else Rams for the time being, and it clouds the coaching staff’s future. The Rams will not block any assistant from taking a job elsewhere right now, inviting more speculation about a potential McVay departure.
The Texans have sent out eight interview requests since firing Lovie Smith. With the exception of Payton, all are under 42. Brown joins DeMeco Ryans, Shane Steichen, Ben Johnson and Mike Kafka in being under 40. The team intends to interview Ejiro Evero next week; Brown’s ex-Rams coworker-turned-Broncos DC has already interviewed for the Denver and Indianapolis HC positions. Josh McCown, who interviewed for the Texans’ job in each of the past two offseasons, has not been connected to the post this year. But, after two years with 60-something HCs, GM Nick Caserio has a host of candidates in McCown’s age bracket on the radar.
Texans Request HC Interview With Mike Kafka
Mike Kafka is turning into a popular name on the head coaching circuit. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports (via Twitter) that the Texans have requested permission to interview the Giants offensive coordinator for their head coaching vacancy.
[RELATED: Texans Request Five HC Interviews]
As our 2023 NFL Head Coaching Search Tracker shows, Kafka joins an initial five-man list that includes Broncos defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, and Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen.
Kafka, a 2010 fourth-round pick out of Northwestern, stuck around the NFL for six years before turning to coaching. He got his first NFL gig with the Chiefs in 2017, and he quickly became Kansas City’s QBs coach and, later, their passing-game coordinator. Kafka’s stint as QBs coach coincided with Patrick Mahomes‘ ascension, so it wasn’t a huge surprise when Brian Daboll hired him as the Giants new offensive coordinator.
Kafka was entrusted with the role of offensive play-caller in New York, a surprising development considering Daboll’s offensive success in Buffalo. The Giants were middle-of-the-road in offense this past season,but Kafka was still credited with helping the offense climb out of the cellar. The team also saw strong efforts from Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley, sparking optimism about Kafka’s ability to function with different personnel.
Thanks to the Giants’ surprising performance in 2022, Kafka has started to generate some interest as a head coach. He was previously connected to the Panthers head coaching gig, and now he’ll get a look as Lovie Smith‘s replacement in Houston.
NFL Reserve/Futures Contracts: 1/10/23
Many teams started signing players to reserve/futures contracts yesterday, allowing the organization to retain (routinely) young, practice squad players throughout the offseason. Here are the latest reserve/futures contracts:
Arizona Cardinals
Carolina Panthers
- CB Herb Miller
Chicago Bears
- WR Daurice Fountain, DT Donovan Jeter
Denver Broncos
Green Bay Packers
- TE Austin Allen, WR Jeff Cotton, T Jean Delance, QB Danny Etling, CB Tyrell Ford, CB Benjie Franklin, RB Tyler Goodson, TE Nick Guggemos, LB La’Darius Hamilton, DL Chris Slayton, CB Kiondre Thomas, K Parker White, S James Wiggins
Houston Texans
- WR Alex Bachman, RB Gerrid Doaks, WR Drew Estrada, WR Johnny Johnson III, DL Adedayo Odeleye, DB D’Angelo Ross, TE Mason Schreck
Indianapolis Colts
New England Patriots
- LB Terez Hall, DB Brad Hawkins, OL Hayden Howerton, DB Quandre Mosely, LB Calvin Munson, WR Tre Nixon, DL Jeremiah Pharms Jr., DL LaBryan Ray, TE Matt Sokol, RB J.J. Taylor, TE Scotty Washington
New York Jets
- DT Tanzel Smart
Pittsburgh Steelers
- WR Ja’Marcus Bradley, DB Duke Dawson, G William Dunkle, LB Emeke Egbule, RB Jason Huntley, C Ryan McCollum, DB Scott Nelson, RB Master Teague, WR Cody White, TE Rodney Williams
Tennessee Titans
- DT Curtis Brooks, CB Shyheim Carter, OL Zack Johnson, WR Mason Kinsey, OLB Zach McCloud, TE Thomas Odukoya, OLB Sam Okuayinonu, DL Jayden Peevy, WR Reggie Roberson, OL Andrew Rupcich, K Caleb Shudak
Washington Commanders
- FB Alex Armah
Texans Request Five HC Interviews
The Lions made major strides on offense this season, and their young coordinator received an interview request Monday. Not long after their Lovie Smith firing, the Texans requested an interview with Ben Johnson, Tom Pelissero of NFL.com reports (on Twitter). Other interview requests are coming in fast.
49ers DC DeMeco Ryans, Eagles DC Jonathan Gannon and Broncos DC Ejiro Evero are on the team’s candidate list, with Ian Rapoport of NFL.com adding the Texans have requested interviews with each defensive play-caller (Twitter link). While KPRC’s Aaron Wilson reported Evero, Johnson and Gannon are expected to be in the mix, he added Ryans is not expected to pursue the job. It will be interesting to see how the former Texans linebacker proceeds regarding this request.
Johnson has been with the Lions since Matt Patricia‘s hire in 2019. Dan Campbell not only kept Johnson on but promoted him this past offseason. The production of Jared Goff and Jamaal Williams certainly will boost Johnson’s chances, and this probably will not be the only job he winds up being linked to during this cycle.
Johnson’s age (36) and the experience levels of the other candidates are notable here. The Texans made two odd hires in 2021 and ’22, adding 60-somethings in Smith and David Culley despite neither being on the radar for other teams at the time. GM Nick Caserio made each a one-and-done, leading to rumblings about his own future. Evero is the oldest of this bunch, at 42, with Gannon being 40 and Ryans — a Texans inside linebacker from 2006-11 — having entered the profession a bit later. The 38-year-old DC, however, will be one of this interview cycle’s top names, considering what he has done with the 49ers’ defense this season.
Robert Saleh‘s successor, Ryans has rocketed onto the HC tier — to the point he is expected to land a job — after elevating San Francisco’s defense to the No. 1 spot. The 49ers launched their 10-game win streak by mounting a four-game streak in which they held opponents without a second-half touchdown. It will certainly be interesting if Ryans passes on a meeting with his former team, but the Texans’ past two coaching searches — each involving Josh McCown, despite no NFL staff experience — have surprised. The Broncos also requested a Ryans meeting.
The other Eagles coordinator — OC Shane Steichen — joins Gannon among the Texans’ interview requests, Rapoport adds (via Twitter). Considering Jalen Hurts‘ progression and the Eagles’ run to the NFC’s No. 1 seed, it should be expected Steichen — the former Chargers OC — receives attention during this year’s cycle. Steichen is 37. The Eagles, who were linked to veteran QBs via trade this past offseason, rank third offensively and have shown malleability under Steichen. Nick Sirianni gave Steichen the play-calling reins midway through the 2021 season, and the Eagles’ pivot to a run-heavy offense drove them to last year’s playoff bracket. Hurts’ progression as a passer this year led to the team’s latest crack at the NFC’s top seed.
The reported frontrunner, Gannon was a finalist for Houston’s HC position last year. That makes his inclusion in Caserio’s third HC search in three years more intriguing. The Eagles also progressed significantly on defense, using a menacing pass rush — one that fell two sacks shy of the 1984 Bears’ single-season record — to spearhead a unit that ranks second in total defense. It is entirely possible the Eagles lose both their coordinators this year, but candidates might be choosey with regards to the Texans, given their recent history.
Evero makes for one of the more unusual candidates in recent years. The Broncos finished 5-12 and fired the coach who brought in Evero — Nathaniel Hackett — after 15 games, making him just the third coach since the 1970 merger to be canned before his first season wrapped. But Evero was on Sean McVay‘s first five Rams staffs and was rising before Hackett hired him. Despite steady injuries and Denver’s offense cratering under Hackett, Evero’s defense finished seventh this season.
Texans Fire HC Lovie Smith
The Texans have followed through with a move which was expected leading up to the conclusion of the 2022 season. Ian Rapoport and Mike Garafolo of NFL Network report that head coach Lovie Smith has been fired (Twitter link). A team announcement has confirmed it.
The decision to part ways makes Smith the second consecutive one-and-done bench boss in Houston. The 64-year-old was tapped as David Culley‘s replacement last year, after he led the team to a 4-13 record. Things were not expected to be much better for the franchise in 2022, and they certainly were not. 
Smith represented a highly experienced option compared to Culley in particular, given the former’s two previous HC gigs in the NFL. The first of those, a nine-year stint with the Bears, was highlighted by a Super Bowl appearance in 2006. Overall, he amassed a record of 81-63 in the Windy City, leading him to a brief stay in Tampa Bay. That, however, did not go according to plan as the Buccaneers went 8-24 under Smith.
The veteran coach received a third opportunity to lead a team last season with his promotion from DC of the Texans, a role he held for one season prior. His ascension to the top spot on the sidelines came during a time in which the organization was under fire for their handling of the search for Culley’s replacement. Houston had reportedly narrowed their search to Eagles DC Jonathon Gannon, former Dolphins head coach Brian Flores and recently-retired quarterback Josh McCown. The latter’s distinct lack of experience was a main talking point in the wake of Flores’ racial discrimination lawsuit.
The Texans pivoted late in the process to Smith, who was unable to turn (generally) consistent effort from one of the league’s least-talented rosters into much in the win-loss column. Houston finished this season with a 3-13-1 record, including a last-minute win earlier today to drop them from first to second overall in the draft order. The AFC South outfit ranked last in the league in total offense, and 30th in total defense.
With the team in need of a long-term answer at quarterback after Davis Mills failed to take a step forward in Year 2 relative to an encouraging rookie season, Houston does have some otherwise attractive qualities. Those include the No. 2 pick which will likely be used to address the QB position, another first-rounder owing to the Deshaun Watson trade, and a favorable cap situation. The recent turnover on the sidelines the franchise has experienced will, on the other hand, likely scare off at least some potential candidates.
One of those could be former Texans linebacker and current 49ers DC DeMeco Ryans, who was named recently as a logical replacement in the event Smith were to be fired. The latter had publicly spoken out earlier today against the notion he would be dismissed, but those comments have proven to be fruitless. Attention will now turn to the job security of GM Nick Caserio, something which has become a matter of debate recently.
In a statement, the latter said in part, “On behalf of the entire organization, I would like to thank Lovie Smith for everything he has contributed to our team over the last two seasons as a coach and a leader. I’m constantly evaluating our football operation and believe this is the best decision for us at this time… With the support of the McNair family and the resources available to us, I’m confident in the direction of our program moving forward.”
Caserio appears to be safe for the time being, but the Texans remain in a state of flux heading into the 2023 coaching cycle. Given his age and lack of success in Houston, it remains to be seen if Smith will pursue other coaching opportunities down the road, either in the NFL or college ranks.
Updated 2023 NFL Draft Order
Some fireworks came in regarding the draft order on the NFL’s final regular-season day. The Bears upended the Texans for the No. 1 pick, reeling in a team that held that top slot for much of the season. The Bears last made a pick at No. 1 overall in 1947. Their former head coach — Lovie Smith, whom the Texans just fired — oversaw this final-day flip-flop. Clarity on the rest of the non-playoff-bound teams’ draft slots emerged as well.
The Jaguars’ rally to win the AFC South moves them into a postseason spot, and the Titans’ seven-game losing streak to end the season drops them to their highest selection since 2017. Tennessee’s next general manager will have the opportunity to make a pick at No. 11 or deal from that draft position, while Jacksonville will hold its lowest selection since 2018. The Texans will hold two top-12 picks in April, thanks to the Browns’ Week 18 loss to the Steelers, while the Lions will have two in the top 20 as well.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2022 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is how the draft order looks at the regular season’s close:
- Chicago Bears: 3-14
- Houston Texans: 3-13-1
- Arizona Cardinals: 4-13
- Indianapolis Colts: 4-12-1
- Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos)
- Detroit Lions (via Rams)
- Las Vegas Raiders: 6-11
- Atlanta Falcons: 7-10
- Carolina Panthers: 7-10
- Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints)
- Tennessee Titans: 7-10
- Houston Texans (via Browns)
- New York Jets: 7-10
- New England Patriots: 8-9
- Green Bay Packers: 8-9
- Washington Commanders: 8-8-1
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-8
- Detroit Lions: 9-8
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-9
- Seattle Seahawks: 9-8
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 9-8
- New York Giants: 9-7-1
- Baltimore Ravens: 10-7
- Los Angeles Chargers: 10-7
- Dallas Cowboys: 12-5
- Cincinnati Bengals: 12-4
- Minnesota Vikings: 13-4
- Denver Broncos (via 49ers)
- Buffalo Bills: 13-3
- Kansas City Chiefs: 14-3
- Philadelphia Eagles: 14-3
This year’s draft will feature a 31-pick first round. The Dolphins’ penalty for the Tom Brady–Sean Payton tampering scandal cost them their 2023 first-round choice
Texans Could Fire HC Lovie Smith, GM Nick Caserio
9:13pm: When speaking to reporters after the team’s win over the Colts (which, given its effect on the upcoming draft, has not been perceived as such), Smith downplayed the swirling speculation that he is on the way out.
“First off, there are reports,” he said, via Charean Williams of Pro Football Talk. “I don’t know what the reports are… Do I expect to be back? Yeah, I expect to be back. Absolutely.” He added that his most recent meeting with McNair was simply the latest in regular post-game sit-downs between the two. Depending on what takes place tomorrow, his remarks could prove to be well-founded or wind up being a moot point.
2:44pm: One of the teams generating the most attention around the NFL with respect to potential changes on the sidelines and in the front office is the Texans. Houston has been marked by instability and underwhelming win-loss records in recent years, and their rebuild could soon be headed in a very different direction. 
Jay Glazer of Fox Sports reports that one of head coach Lovie Smith, general manager Nick Caserio or both “will be gone” at the conclusion of the regular season, putting them in danger of being fired tomorrow (video link). Given recent reporting on each of them, that would come as little surprise, in spite of the continued turbulence the organization would be undergoing in the event of a third straight coaching change.
KPRC2’s Aaron Wilson corroborates the sense that Smith, 64, will not return in 2023. As his sources explain, the team’s on-field performance – including a 2-13-1 record heading into today’s season finale against the Colts, and struggles in almost every category on both sides of the ball – is only one reason for a likely change. Others include the way he is perceived in the organization with respect to his approach and his stubbornness to alter it.
Smith (whose job status was one the Texans were already reported to be planning to evaluate following the season) has taken steps in recent days to try and avoid receiving a pink slip. The former Coach of the Year has been meeting with owner Cal McNair to “state his case” for being retained for at least one more year, per Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero of NFL Network. Smith would join David Culley as a one-and-done bench boss in Houston in consecutive seasons should his efforts prove futile.
Notably, Wilson reports that Caserio should actually be considered to be on relatively solid footing, adding that sources would be “extremely surprised” if he is let go. The longtime Patriots exec was, like Smith, reported to be on thin ice in the wake of the Texans’ struggles this year, one in which expectations were tempered. The 2022 season was always likely to include a long list of losses, but a lack of development by quarterback Davis Mills in particular has made the season a disappointing one.
The Texans are slated to pick no worse than second overall in the upcoming draft, however, which will give the franchise an opportunity to add a long-term answer at the position. That – coupled with a notable stock of other picks, cap space and a small group of young, encouraging players – could make the GM job an enticing one, should Caserio be dismissed. As for a potential Smith replacement, both Glazer and the NFLN pair name 49ers defensive coordinator (and former Texans linebacker) DeMeco Ryans as a name to watch when the coaching cycle begins to heat up.
Bears Clinch No. 1 Pick In 2023 NFL Draft
Most of the NFL’s attention was on the AFC playoff picture during the early slate of Sunday’s Week 18 games, but another important development took place along the way. The results of the Bears’ and Texans’ respective contests has left Chicago with the top pick in the upcoming draft. 
The Bears, facing no need to win their season finale against the Vikings, sat starting quarterback Justin Fields. That move ended his opportunity to break the all-time single-season rushing record at the position, but also helped lessen the chances of an upset which would have taken them out of contention for the No. 1 slot. In his place, Chicago used both Nathan Peterman and Tim Boyle under center en route to a 29-13 loss.
That left the door open to Houston taking themselves out of the top spot, something which would take place only in the event they won against the Colts – a team which has cratered under interim head coach Jeff Saturday. In a back-and-forth game, Houston was able to score a Hail Mary touchdown on fourth-and-20 inside the final minute to bring them within one of Indianapolis. They successfully executed a two-point conversion to seal the win, one which knocked them down to the second overall pick in the process.
While it remains to be seen what effect (if any) that result has on Houston head coach Lovie Smith and general manager Nick Caserio with respect to their job security, it marks a considerable shake-up in the draft order. The Texans appeared to be on track to secure the top slot for most of the season, but the Bears’ struggles left them within striking distance as well. Now, the Bears will have the opportunity to make the draft’s first selection for only the third time in franchise history and the first since 1947.
It should be noted, of course, that there is a very real possibility that today’s reversal at the top of the board does not end up having a dramatic effect on the way things play out. Presuming both teams keep their picks, Chicago will likely be inclined to add to their defense, given Fields’ improvement shown during the season, as well as his age (23) and contract status (two more years on his rookie contract, and the potential of a fifth-year option). That could point them towards Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. or Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter with the No. 1 pick.
Houston, meanwhile, is widely expected to target a quarterback in April with one of their two first-rounders. That has led to plenty of connections between the Texans and Alabama’s Bryce Young, the highest-rated passer in the 2023 class. Chicago selecting a defender (or at least a different signal-caller) first overall would still all-but assuredly leave the Texans with their top target on the board; their extra Day 1 pick could also help them outbid other suitors for the top slot should the Bears make it available.
In any event, Bears GM Ryan Poles and Caserio (or his replacement) will each be well-positioned to add significantly to their respective teams in the spring given today’s events.