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Free Agent Market For Cornerbacks

March 1st, 2015 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with this year’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ve been taking a closer look at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to cornerbacks. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

Maxwell is widely considered to be the top option on the cornerback market, and looks like a good bet to land the biggest contract of the group this month. However, suitors should approach with some caution when considering the Seattle corner, despite the fact that he played a key role for the league’s best secondary. It’s worth noting that the Seahawks locked up all the other starting defensive backs to extensions, but seem willing to let Maxwell walk. Additionally, while Pro Football Focus grades aren’t the be-all, end-all for player evaluation, Maxwell earned just a -0.2 mark in 2014 (subscription required). Besides Tillman, who missed the season with a triceps injury, only Skrine’s PFF grade was lower than that, among this group.

Of those players who graded above Maxwell in 2014, Culliver and Jackson are a couple worth watching. Both corners are entering their age-27 seasons, and ranked in PFF’s top 15 at the position in ’14. Quarterbacks completed just 50.7% of their passes when throwing into Culliver’s coverage, and Jackson limited opposing signal-callers to a passer rating of 74.2 — for comparison’s sake, players like Geno Smith and Brian Hoyer had better overall marks.

Teams targeting cornerbacks in free agency will have to strongly consider how those players will fit in their systems. The 5’9″ Flowers struggled mightily in 2013 while playing for a Chiefs defense that required him to match up in press-man coverage with bigger, more physical receivers, but had a nice bounce-back season in 2014 playing a different style of defense in San Diego.

There are also a couple instances in this group where multiple corners from one team are eligible for free agency, and the Packers and 49ers will have to decide which of their guys they want to retain. Having already invested heavily in Sam Shields, Green Bay seems unlikely to bring back both House and Williams, and the same can be said for the 49ers, who may not have the flexibility to re-sign Culliver and Cox.

Other unrestricted options:

There’s certainly a drop-off from the first tier to most of these players, but for a team looking for some value in a depth signing, there are a few options worth considering.

When Thurmond made the move from the Seahawks to the Giants a year ago, he looked poised to take a larger role, but a torn pectoral prematurely ended his season. He’ll come at a discount this season, and could be a solid No. 3 or 4 corner. Jimmy Wilson took on a greater role in Miami last season, starting 13 games and playing both cornerback and safety. Although he struggled a little at corner, his versatility is appealing.

The results weren’t always pretty, but Fletcher, Newman, Wright, and Tarell Brown all logged more than 800 defensive snaps for their respective clubs in 2014, and with the exception of Brown’s Raiders, all those teams finished above .500. That doesn’t mean they should necessarily be relied upon as starters again, but if they start out in a reduced role and are forced to take on more snaps, at least they have the experience.

Restricted FAs:

Moore is the standout name in this group, and the only player who saw action in more than half of his team’s defensive snaps. The Cowboys obviously have a few more noteworthy free-agents-to-be to deal with, but I don’t expect them to overlook Moore. He’s the best – and perhaps the only – candidate in this group to receive a one-year RFA tender.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

PFR Originals: 2/22/15 – 3/1/15

March 1st, 2015 at 3:15pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco 49ers

February 28th, 2015 at 9:07pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Colin Kaepernick, QB: $15,265,753
  2. Aldon Smith, OLB: $9,754,000
  3. Patrick Willis, ILB: $8,268,000
  4. NaVorro Bowman, ILB: $7,654,000
  5. Ahmad Brooks, OLB: $7,055,000
  6. Vernon Davis, TE: $6,967,920
  7. Anquan Boldin, WR: $6,909,000
  8. Justin Smith, DE: $6,436,668
  9. Joe Staley, T: $6,400,000
  10. Stevie Johnson, WR: $6,025,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 15 overall pick
  • Acquired fourth-round pick from Broncos in deal for Cody Latimer.
  • Acquired seventh-round pick from Colts in deal for Cam Johnson.
  • Owe fourth-round pick to Bills in deal for Stevie Johnson.
  • Owe seventh-round pick to Dolphins for Jonathan Martin.

Other:

Overview:

The 2014 season was a massive letdown for the 49ers, whose recent stretch near the top of the NFL standings surprisingly came to a halt. San Francisco was expected to contend last year after a three-year stretch from 2011-13 that included a combined 36-11-1 regular season record, three straight NFC championship games, and a Super Bowl appearance. Instead, thanks primarily to an ineffectual offense, the 49ers finished an uninspiring 8-8 and missed the postseason for the first time since 2010. That spurred the conclusion of a coaching era and, as the offseason progresses, will surely prompt noteworthy roster modifications.

Coaching Changes:

The 49ers were mired in an eight-year playoff drought when they named Jim Harbaugh their head coach in 2011. The team went an embarrassing 46-82 USATSI_8331329_168380616_lowresand mustered just one .500 season during that time frame. Harbaugh’s arrival brought dramatic improvement in the on-field product, as he helped guide the Niners to a tremendous 44-19-1 regular-season mark and three playoff berths. However, his relationship with CEO Jed York and general manager Trent Baalke deteriorated over time and became particularly discordant in 2014. That culminated in December with the end of the coach’s four-year stint in the Bay Area.

After interviewing several outside candidates, the Niners hired from within and chose longtime assistant Jim Tomsula to succeed Harbaugh. The 46-year-old Tomsula had run the 49ers’ defensive line since 2007 and was their interim head coach for one game back in 2010 (a 38-7 win over the Cardinals).

Tomsula stayed in the organization to replace Harbaugh’s departed coordinators, Greg Roman (offense) and Vic Fangio (defense), with Geep Chryst and Eric Mangini.

Chryst, San Francisco’s quarterbacks coach the past four years, has previous experience as a coordinator – he oversaw the Chargers’ offense from 1999-2000. Although Mangini was an offensive consultant with the 49ers in 2013 and their tight ends coach last season, most of his coaching career has been spent on defensive staffs.

Key Free Agents:

The start of the free agent period on March 10 could bring about the exits of three players who have long been 49ers offensive pillars — running back Frank Gore, left guard Mike Iupati and wide receiver Michael Crabtree.

Gore, the longest-tenured member of the trio, has spent all 10 of his pro seasons in San Francisco. Even at 31, he finished last year ranked ninth in the league in rushing (1,106 yards) on a respectable per-carry average of 4.3. Baalke has indicated that the 49ers want Gore back for his age-32 season. “I talked to him the other day on the phone and we’re going to do what we can to get him back as a 49er,” Baalke said earlier this month, according to the 49ers’ official website. Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com has reported that Gore, who made $6.45MM last season, is seeking $4MM per annum and that people around the league believe San Francisco is the likeliest team to meet his asking price.

Unfortunately for the 49ers, chances are they’ll have a harder time retaining Iupati. The three-time Pro Bowler is primed to become one of the NFL’s top-paid guards this offseason, and, with little cap space to work with, the 49ers seemingly aren’t in the right position to outbid the market for the 27-year-old’s services.

Then there’s Crabtree, the only one of the group who is coming off a subpar season (698 yards, 10.3 YPC). Tomsula recently said he would “absolutely” like Crabtree back, but both the Sacramento Bee’s Matt Barrows and Bleacher Report’s Jason Cole (video link) have reported the six-year veteran will probably end up elsewhere.

As is the case on offense, the 49ers’ defense also has important pieces scheduled to hit free agency. Those defenders happen to be both of the Niners’ starting cornerbacks from last season, Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox. The pair excelled in 2014, combining for nine interceptions and ranking well above average in Pro Football Focus’ grading system (subscription required) — Culliver was 14th and Cox 35th out of 108 qualifying corners. San Francisco is going to have difficulty keeping both, per Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com, and the one who’s expected to cost less (Cox) has a better chance of returning.

Positions Of Need:

The 49ers’ offense was the main culprit behind their woes last season, as mentioned earlier. The unit ran the ball effectively, but averaged a meager 19.1 points per game (25th in the league) and its Colin Kaepernick-led passing attack finished 30th in yardage and 22nd in Football Outsiders’ rankings. To Kaepernick’s credit, he greatly aided San Francisco’s ground game with 639 yards, second only to the Seahawks’ Russell Wilson among quarterbacks. The four-year veteran was merely middle of the pack in most relevant passing statistics, though.

In order for Kaepernick to realize his vast potential, the 49ers are going to have to surround him with more weapons. It starts at receiver, where Baalke has already acknowledged that the 49ers are seeking downfield threats. Further, the 49ers’ receivers coaches were among the few members of their staff who attended the recent scouting combine.

Given their dearth of cap space, the 49ers could have trouble filling their receiver void via free agency. That means they probably won’t be able to take advantage of a deep class of established wideouts, which would make drafting one with their first-rounder – the 15th overall selection – a strong possibility. The 49ers need to find a complement to (and potential long-term replacement for) 34-year-old Anquan Boldin, and they might land one in DeVante Parker (Louisiville) or Kevin White (West Virginia) with their top pick.

In the event the 49ers don’t take a receiver at 15, speedsters like Phillip Dorsett (Miami), Devin Smith (Ohio State) and Sammie Coates (Auburn) are potential targets who could be available after the first round. There’s also Dorial Green-Beckham, whom Bucky Brooks of NFL.com sees as a possible fit for San Francisco. At 6-foot-5, 237 pounds, Green-Beckham has elite size to accompany 4.49 speed. Despite that enticing combination, he might drop in the draft because of past off-field transgressions – ones that led to his dismissal from Missouri’s football team in 2014.

Other than receiver, San Francisco doesn’t have any glaring offensive holes. If Gore leaves, the 49ers have an in-house option in Carlos Hyde, a second-round pick last April who averaged 4.0 yards per carry as a rookie and scored four touchdowns. Replacing Iupati would be a tougher task, but another player from last year’s draft class (third-rounder Brandon Thomas) would have the inside track to take the reins at left guard. The 24-year-old Thomas was thought to be better than a third-round prospect before tearing his ACL a few weeks prior to the draft.

Defensively, the Niners were terrific last season, ranking fifth in both yardage and DVOA and 10th in points allowed. Ideally, they’ll be even better in 2015 with full seasons from brand-name linebackers Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman and Aldon Smith. Those three combined to miss 35 games last season (Bowman lost all 16 because of a torn ACL and MCL), but they’ve also combined to make 10 Pro Bowls in the past. In 2013, when each of them played the majority of the season, Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranked Bowman and Willis first and third, respectively, among 3-4 ILBs, while the site graded Smith as the fifth-best 3-4 OLB. Having those three and a pair of outstanding second-year men in Chris Borland and Aaron Lynch gives the 49ers an embarrassment of riches at linebacker.

The prospect of a deep and dominant linebacking corps is certainly a plus, but the 49ers do have defensive needs. Those needs begin along the line, where one end (Ray McDonald) has already been released and another (Justin Smith) is considering retirement. Although McDonald ranged from good to great during his eight-year 49ers career, the team cut him in December because of poor off-field conduct. Smith, 36 in September, has missed just two games since joining the Niners in 2008. His advanced age aside, Smith was still a crucial part of San Francisco’s defense last season. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) agreed, ranking him as the league’s 11th-best 3-4 end in 2014.

The 49ers have already tried to combat some of their D-line issues by bringing back one of their former players, Ricky Jean-Francois. The Colts released the six-year veteran and four-year Niner earlier this month, but he chose to sign with Washington. Regardless, it’s clear that the 49ers are aware of their line problems. They’ll likely continue trying to address them as the offseason moves forward.

San Francisco’s other defensive questions lie at cornerback, given the nebulous statuses of Culliver and Cox. On the bright side, the secondary will get Tramaine Brock back at full strength next season. Brock broke out in 2013 with five interceptions as a nickel back, which led to the 49ers giving him a four-year, $16 million extension, and then missed 13 of 16 games last season with toe and hamstring injuries. Brock’s return will be a boon to a pass defense that managed to finish 10th without him. Brock’s comeback won’t mean as much if both Culliver and Cox walk, obviously, but even if the Niners can only keep one of the two, they should still be in decent shape at corner.

Possible Cap Casualties/Contract Restructurings:

Odds are the 49ers will release Ahmad Brooks this offseason, considering his recent below-average play and the team’s wealth at the linebacker position. If the 49ers drop Brooks on June 1, they’ll save $4.71MM on next season’s cap.

Receiver Stevie Johnson‘s roster spot is also in jeopardy, even though San Francisco is weak at wideout. Moving on from Johnson, who caught just 35 passes last season, would avail north of $6MM in cap room for the 49ers.

Regardless of whom they part ways with, the 49ers should look to restructure some of their veterans’ deals this offseason. Aldon Smith, Willis and Bowman are scheduled to have the second-, third- and fourth-highest cap hits on the team next season. Combined, they’ll take up roughly $25MM. Both Willis and Bowman have restructured their contracts in the past to create spending space for the club, so there’s precedent with both of them.

Extension Candidates:

The 49ers will have decisions to make regarding the futures of Aldon Smith, Vernon Davis and Alex Boone in the coming year. All three are scheduled for free agency in 2016.

Smith has demonstrated immense ability during his four-year career, totaling 44 sacks in 50 games. Unfortunately, the four-year veteran’s on-field accomplishments have come with serious off-field negatives. The latest, an April 2014 incident between Smith and TSA agent at the Los Angeles Airport, led to a nine-game suspension for the 25-year-old last season. Despite Smith’s problems, Baalke recently referred to him as “a great young man.” Smith will count $9.75MM against San Francisco’s cap this year. Whether Smith is in Baalke’s long-term plans is likely to depend on how he fares both on and off the field in 2015. If all goes well, Smith will have a strong chance to become one of the highest-paid 3-4 OLBs in the league. At the moment, Green Bay’s Clay Matthews has the richest contract at the position in both total and annual value ($66MM and $13.2MM, respectively). Matthews signed that deal in 2013 as a four-year vet with 42.5 sacks in 58 games.

As for Davis and Boone, both expressed dissatisfaction in regards to their contracts during holdouts last year. Davis skipped the team’s voluntary and mandatory minicamps, while Boone sat out the entire summer and reported to the 49ers a week before the regular season started.

The 31-year-old Davis is just two years removed from a 13-touchdown showing, but 2014 was his worst season since 2008. He amassed a paltry 26 catches with all-time lows in yardage and YPC, while his two TDs tied a career worst. Even if he bounces back in 2015, the odds of San Francisco giving Davis a sizable contract extension don’t seem high. Although he has been among the top tight ends in the league for the better part of his nine-year career, it’s fair to wonder if Davis’ best days are behind him.

Unlike Davis, it’s clear Boone has plenty left in the tank. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) rated the 27-year-old as the 17th-best guard in the league in 2014 – just three spots behind Iupati – out of 78 qualifiers. Boone will make $3.74MM in 2015, the final year of his contract. That’s just below the value of the 10th-highest-paid right guard in the league (Washington’s Chris Chester at $4MM). In all likelihood, an extension for Boone would mean signing him to a deal that would at least get him into the top 10 in total value, yearly value and guaranteed money. With Iupati’s time as a Niner on the brink of ending, San Francisco would be wise to get Boone locked up at some point in the next year. For a team that has prioritized running the ball, losing its two outstanding guards in a 12-month span would be quite a setback.

Overall Outlook:

Despite the failures of last season and the resulting coaching change, the 49ers are still more talented than the majority of teams around the league. Because of that, they’ll have a shot to return to the playoffs in 2015 – particularly if Kaepernick rebounds and Tomsula doesn’t end up drowning in his new role. Nevertheless, the ultra-competitive NFC West certainly won’t make life easy for Kaepernick, Tomsula or the rest of the 49ers.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Lions

February 27th, 2015 at 8:21pm CST by Zachary Links

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Calvin Johnson, WR: $20,558,000
  2. Matthew Stafford, QB: $17,721,250
  3. Stephen Tulloch, LB: $5,800,000
  4. Glover Quin, S: $5,742,500
  5. Golden Tate, WR: $5,350,000
  6. Ezekiel Ansah, DE: $5,071,228
  7. DeAndre Levy, LB: $4,500,000
  8. Jason Jones, DE: $3,983,334
  9. Brandon Pettigrew, TE: $3,800,000
  10. Joique Bell, RB: $3,500,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 23 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview:

With 23 free agents and only $18.44MM worth of cap space, the Lions will have to make some tough choices in the coming months. Much of the attention, if not all of the attention, has been centered on Ndamukong Suh, and for good reason. Not only is Suh one of the most feared defensive linemen in the NFL, but he is the giant domino that will determine how the rest of the offseason goes. The Lions badly want to keep him, of course, but they also know that their “big three” of Suh, Matthew Stafford, and Calvin Johnson is eating up a tremendous portion of their cap room.

Key Free Agents:

Of course, this list starts with none other than Suh. The Lions are working hard on a new contract for the dominant defensive tackle, and GM Martin Mayhew remains confident that the two sides will work something out. It’s always good to have confidence, but those of us on the outside aren’t sure how things are going to work out. Suh’s camp has been vocal about their desire for the biggest contract possible and his team let the world know last season that he wouldn’t mind joining up with the Giants or Jets, where he could maximize his marketability. Suh might also look towards the Seahawks and West Coast teams, as he is a Pacific Northwest native.

The Lions have the franchise tag at their disposal, of course, but that would set them back $26.9MM, even higher than last season’s $22MM salary. As much as they want to keep the former No. 2 overall pick, the near-$27MM figure would represent more than 19% of the Lions’ overall salary cap if they exercise this option. On top of that, the Lions will also be saddled with the $9MM+ in dead money from his rookie contract that will count against the cap. The question isn’t whether the Lions want Suh back — it’s whether they can get anything of substance done in free agency if they pay him mega-bucks, either via the franchise tag or through a long-term pact. Back in December, PFR’s Luke Adams explored the Lions’ different options, including allowing him to walk. Ndamukong Suh

Of course, Suh isn’t the Lions’ only important free agent defensive tackle. Nick Fairley is also scheduled to hit the open market and keeping both players could prove to be challenging. After posting a top-20 season for defensive tackles, per PFF (subscription required), Fairley figures to draw a lot of interest. It also helps that he was found not guilty on a DUI charge, which would have guaranteed a suspension for the first two games of the 2015 season (that could still happen, but the chances have been reduced dramatically). In theory, Fairley could be a franchise candidate if the tag is not used on Suh, but it’s hard to see the Lions wanting to pay him a top salary just a year after turning down his fifth-year option, valued at just $5.5MM. At the time, Detroit didn’t know that Fairley would go from being an inconsistent talent to one of the better DTs in the league. In 2014, Fairley was playing at perhaps his highest level yet before a sprained MCL and PCL in Week 8 ended his season. Despite his limited amounted of snaps (297), he still placed as the league’s 18th-best DT per PFF and his absence on the Detroit defense was very noticeable. Our own Dallas Robinson took a detailed look at Fairley earlier this month.

Defensive end George Johnson tried to make the case that he should be classified as an unrestricted free agent this offseason, but his battle fell short when the NFLPA eventually saw things Detroit’s way. Now a restricted free agent, it seems more likely that he’ll wind up staying put in Detroit. The 27-year-old carved out a role for himself as the preferred bookend off of the bench in 2014 and he should continue that role next season.

Beyond Suh and Fairley, another defensive tackle will be eligible to hit the open market in C.J. Mosley. Mosley isn’t as high of a priority as the other two, of course, but he did do a respectable job filling in for Fairley last season while he was sidelined.

Earlier this month, Mayhew said that he hopes to bring back cornerback Rashean Mathis for the 2015 season, citing the veteran’s versatility as a major positive. Mathis earned the minimum salary last season so it’ll be interesting to see if Detroit will go well beyond that to retain him, if necessary.

The Lions had a revolving door at the left guard position for years before Rob Sims came aboard in 2010 and started 80 straight games. Despite that durability, Sims has been banged up over the last couple of years and his production has declined as a result. Sims did rebound from a slow start in 2014, however, as he earned a positive grade from Pro Football Focus in every game from Week 11 onward. The Lions already informed long-time center Dominic Raiola they don’t plan on bringing him back in 2015, so it remains to be seem if Sims will be asked back. For what it’s worth, Sims wants to stay in Detroit.

Kickers aren’t often featured in the “Key Free Agents” section of our Offseason Outlooks, but the Lions learned the hard way how important a kicker can be this season. After running through two shaky legs in Nate Freese and Alex Henery, the Lions added Matt Prater mid-season and while he wasn’t flawless, he did hold down the position. Prater has been one of the most dominant kickers in the league over the last few years and figures to draw serious interest from any team with a vacancy there. He expressed a desire to stay with the Lions and the club met with his reps in Indianapolis earlier this month.

While they’re not marquee names, Mayhew recently mentioned quarterback Dan Orlovsky and long snapper Don Muhlbach as two under-the-radar potential free agents that the team was optimistic about re-signing, and he has since locked up Muhlbach — Orlovsky could be next. Speaking of Matthew Stafford’s understudies, Kellen Moore won’t be offered an RFA tender but Detroit would be interested in bringing him back.

Positions Of Need:

With Suh and Fairley potentially hitting the open market, the Lions could have a major need at defensive tackle. No, you won’t find another Suh on the open market, but this year’s crop features names like Terrance Knighton, Henry Melton, and Jared Odrick. Besides Suh, you won’t find a more proven free agent DT on the right side of 30 than the run-stuffing Knighton. The Broncos standout has ranked as the 12th- and ninth-best defensive tackle the past two years, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Melton is also an interesting name and he was playing some solid football for the Cowboys in 2014 before he was placed on IR. In the draft, the Lions could take a hard look at guys like Florida State’s Eddie Goldman, Ohio State’s Michael Bennett, and Texas’ Malcom Brown.

The Lions will be in the market for a running back after parting ways with Reggie Bush, who will celebrate his 30th birthday in the coming days. Detroit has Joique Bell on its roster, but the team probably isn’t looking to put a giant workload on his shoulders for 16 games. In theory, the Lions could take a tailback at No. 23 and go for the likes of Melvin Gordon or Todd Gurley. However, I’d expect them to instead target a back in the later rounds. The Lions already have Theo Riddick in-house to help split the workload with Bell, and George Winn also figures to see some carries. The Lions shed a big name in Bush, but they don’t need a star to take his spot on the roster.

The Lions might have some work to do on their offensive line this offseason. If the aforementioned Sims is not retained, Detroit will be in the market for a left guard. Meanwhile, they have a starting right tackle under contract in LaAdrian Waddle, but it’d be hard to count on him staying healthy given his track record over the last couple of seasons. The Lions could roll with Waddle and plug in backup Cornelius Lucas (who made three starts in 2014) as needed, but they would probably prefer to give Stafford more peace of mind when in the pocket. The Lions won’t bring Raiola back next season, but understudy Travis Swanson is ready to move into the starting center role for 2015.

Possible Cap Casualties:

2014, of course, was a year to forget for linebacker Stephen Tulloch. The linebacker’s season ended after just three games when he tore his ACL while celebrating a sack. While he was out, Tahir Whitehead filled in capably, and that leaves the Lions with an interesting choice this offseason. Detroit could continue to roll with Whitehead at middle linebacker and carve out some space by parting ways with Tulloch. The 30-year-old is slated to count $5.8MM against the cap next season. Whitehead, meanwhile, costs just $713K.

If George Johnson is retained, the Lions could gain a bit more breathing room by dropping Jason Jones. Jones is slated to count for $3.98MM against the cap in 2015, but the Lions could save $3.15MM by showing him the door. Beyond Johnson, the Lions have more options at bookend in Darryl Tapp (free agent), Devin Taylor, and Larry Webster.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Would Calvin Johnson re-work his deal to help re-sign Suh? Bell certainly hopes he’ll be open to it. “We’ll have to talk to Calvin, see if he can do something,” Bell said in early February. “We just need him back. Come back, Suh.” Recently, Megatron said that he’ll do whatever he has to do to keep the All-Pro defensive tackle in Detroit, as Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press writes. At present, Johnson is scheduled to count for $20.5MM against the cap in 2015. He has re-worked his contract for the Lions in the past, having restructured his deal in 2013 to free up $3.5MM of cap space.

While there’s uncertainty about a couple of spots on the Lions’ offensive line, there’s no concern when it comes to left tackle, where Riley Reiff is entrenched. At last check, Detroit is undecided about the fifth-year option for offensive tackle but it’s possible the club will look into an extension to keep him beyond that point. Linebacker DeAndre Levy has been a good value on his rookie contract but he’ll be a free agent after he earns $3.5MM in 2015. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Lions lock their starting weakside linebacker up long before another team gets the chance to steal him away. Levy graded out as the third-best outside linebacker in a 4-3 scheme according to the advanced metrics at PFF.

Overall Outlook:

Any way you slice it, retaining Suh will cost the Lions a whole lot of flexibility. However, the Lions have fewer holes than most of the league’s contending teams and they might just bite the bullet at the cost of playing a little thin in some areas.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Market For Safeties

February 27th, 2015 at 8:32am CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’re taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to safeties. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

For many of the positions we’ve already examined, the top-tier free agent options expected to be available this winter are few and far between, or entirely non-existent. That’s not the case at safety, however. There aren’t a ton of elite players here – McCourty may be the only one, and he’s still a candidate to be franchised – but there are plenty of guys capable of being solid starters, and several with some upside.

The elder statesmen in this group are Adams, Landry, and Rolle. The Giants safety saw his Pro Football Focus grade (subscription required) fall off a cliff in 2014 due to a poor performance against the run, but is only a year removed from being a top-10 player at the position. Adams, meanwhile, finished in the top 10 in ’14, on the strength of the second-best coverage grade among safeties, per PFF. Neither of these guys should be relied upon as a long-term answer, and Landry probably shouldn’t be either, but for teams looking to plug a hole for the 2015 season, there are certainly worse solutions.

Teams looking for a younger player could target someone like Moore, Gilchrist, Searcy, or Stewart. Moore, Searcy, and Stewart appear to be reasonable bets to change teams, since the Broncos have a handful of free agents to re-sign, the Bills have already invested heavily in another safety (Aaron Williams), while Baltimore may not be inclined to pay Stewart a raise after turning him into a capable starter last season.

Other notable names here include Parker, who contributed for the Chiefs at both safety and cornerback in 2014, and Branch, who has had his last two seasons mostly wiped out by injuries after averaging 105 tackles per year from 2009 to 2012.

Other unrestricted options:

Amidst this group of special teams contributors and up-and-down veterans, there are some names worth monitoring.

Lewis logged nearly 1,100 defensive snaps in 2014, and held his own, bouncing back from a forgettable performance in the Wild Card game vs. the Colts a year earlier. His teammate Manning was solid as well, limiting opposing quarterbacks to 105 yards and a 67.7 QB rating on 23 passes thrown in his direction. Coleman emerged as a solid part-time player for the Chiefs, and figures to be looking for an opportunity to start in 2015.

Allen, DeCoud, Landry, and Meriweather are among the veterans whose better days are probably behind them, but if they’re not asked to be every-down players, they could still provide positive value on modest deals. Leonhard played as well as any of those veterans in 2014, but it looks as if he’ll probably call it a career rather than trying to land a new contract for 2015.

Restricted FAs:

If McCourty is the only elite safety eligible for free agency this offseason, his strongest competition for that honor may come from someone in his group. Gipson and Hill, in particular, have developed into above-average starters and are entering their age-25 seasons. The Browns and Ravens, respectively, have the means to lock up their safeties for at least the 2015 season, and Cleveland at least looks like a lock to do so. We’ll see what the Ravens decide with Hill, who has been suspended for off-field issues in each of the last three seasons.

Besides Gipson and Hill, McLeod is a very good bet to receive a restricted free agent tender from the Rams, and Jarrett is coming off a solid season for the Jets, though it remains to be seen if the new coaching staff will want to lock him up. Most of the other players in this group are reserves and/or special-teamers, so if their teams bring them back, it will likely be for less than the RFA tender amount.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

Free Agent Market For Inside Linebackers

February 26th, 2015 at 9:55am CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to inside linebackers. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

A year after Karlos Dansby landed the biggest contract of any free agent inside linebacker, signing for four years and $24MM, no member of this year’s class of FA ILBs looks poised to match or exceed those numbers. Harris, who is coming off a four-year pact that averaged $9MM per year, is perhaps the most consistent and reliable player here, having not missed a start during those four seasons. However, he turned 31 last month, meaning another huge payday is probably out of the question.

Like Harris, Hawk has been a reliable piece in the middle of his team’s defense for several years, but both players look poised to join new clubs in 2015. Hawk has already been set free by the Packers, released on Wednesday, while Harris is probably due for a change of scenery after the departure of Rex Ryan from the Jets — the veteran linebacker is said to be prioritizing contending teams, and could accept a little less money in the right situation.

While Harris and Hawk are the grizzled veterans of this group, there are other intriguing options available. Foster and Irving are both in their mid-20s, and would be a nice Plan B for any team that targets and misses out on a player like Harris. McClain might fit that bill as well, though even after a strong season in Dallas, the former Raider still has some red flags — any potential suitor will have to consider McClain’s three failed drug tests when deciding what sort of investment to make.

The last member of this top tier is Spikes, who likely won’t be relied upon as a three-down player. Still, his ability to stop the run is valuable, and was enough to place him 13th among 60 qualified inside linebackers in 2014, per Pro Football Focus’ grades (subscription required).

Other unrestricted options:

Amongst a list primarily made up of special teams contributors and reserve defenders, there are some names worth monitoring here. Brinkley, Dent, and Gachkar all received starts in 2014, and held their own — particularly Brinkley, who was a top-10 inside linebacker against the run, per PFF.

No player in this group appeared in more defensive snaps (1,028) than Mauga, who started every game for the Chiefs. Although he struggled against the run, Mauga wasn’t a detriment to the unit in pass coverage, and got after the quarterback every now and then as well. Lattimore, Maualuga, Matthews, and Williams all logged at least part-time snaps for their respective clubs too, and provided decent enough production.

One more player worth mentioning here is Henderson. As we saw with McClain, it’s possible for a player with off-the-field troubles to return after a season away from the game and have a positive impact on the field. But considering how Henderson’s legal issues piled up a year ago, it’s also possible he may not play another NFL regular season game. He’ll be looking for a team to give him a shot in camp this summer, and is worth keeping an eye on.

Restricted FAs:

The RFA names for most positions we’ve examined so far aren’t too notable, but the ones in this group are an exception. Freeman and Robertson have developed into starters and key pieces for their respective teams, and should certainly be tendered one-year offers, perhaps at a first- or second-round rate. Both the Colts and Browns have plenty of cap space to spare, so I wouldn’t expect to see either player switch teams this winter.

Even Tarpinian, who isn’t a defensive regular in Houston, has some value as a special teams ace for the Texans. Whether his contributions are worthy of an RFA tender remains to be seen, but his 12 special teams tackles in 2014 will ensure he draws interest if he reaches the open market.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

Offseason Outlook: Denver Broncos

February 25th, 2015 at 9:03pm CST by Sam Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Peyton Manning, QB: $21,500,000
  2. Ryan Clady, LT: $10,600,000
  3. Von Miller, OLB: $9,754,000
  4. DeMarcus Ware, DE: $8,666,666
  5. T.J. Ward, S: $7,750,000
  6. Aqib Talib, CB: $6,968,750
  7. Louis Vasquez, G/T: $6,250,000
  8. Emmanuel Sanders, WR: $5,850,000
  9. Britton Colquitt, P: $3,750,000
  10. Manuel Ramirez, C/G: $3,166,668

Notable Coaching Changes:

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

The Broncos’ window to capture their first Super Bowl title since 1998 may still be open should Peyton Manning indeed return for an 18th season, but that window has undergone some significant alterations. The Broncos entered last season with probably their best roster since ’98, but endured a divisional-round exit for the second time in three seasons. Despite a 12-4 record that gave Denver 38 regular-season wins since 2012 — matching the 1996-98 Broncos squads for the most conquests in a three-year span — the 24-13 loss to the Colts resulted in John Fox‘s firing after four straight AFC West titles. Coordinators Adam Gase and Jack Del Rio moved on as well, Gase following Fox to Chicago and Del Rio becoming the second straight Broncos defensive coordinator (after Dennis Allen) to take the Raiders’ reins. These moves prompted a reunion of sorts to fix a team that suddenly has more questions than it’s faced in years. Each a former Broncos assistant or head coach, Gary Kubiak and coordinators Rick Dennison and Wade Phillips are the result of a rare performance-induced sideline overhaul of a team that played in the Super Bowl a season ago.NFL: Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

Determining whether a return to a Super Bowl is a feasible reality still depends on Manning’s status. Likely due back and already discussing a restructuring of his deal, Manning tossed 39 touchdown passes — the third-most he’s thrown in a season — and 4,727 yards last year. On the back of Manning and C.J. Anderson, the Broncos finished third in offensive DVOA last season, which was a bit off 2013’s historic mark. But Manning’s prodigious play ceased toward the end of the regular season, and a franchise-altering swoon followed, culminating with the 38-year-old QB averaging just 4.59 yards per attempt in the playoff defeat. That represented Manning’s second-lowest such figure in his 24-game playoff career and raised questions about his future. Manning and the Broncos have until March 9, when the signal-caller’s 2015 contract becomes guaranteed with a $19MM salary, to decide on another year together. But it’s clear the future Hall of Famer will need at least as much help as he’s been receiving the past three years to keep the Broncos in dominant form. Defensively, the Broncos’ 2014 impact additions of Aqib Talib, T.J. Ward and DeMarcus Ware helped result in Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 collective unit (subscription required), but the sum of the defense’s parts bested the group’s overall work. Although the unit ranked fourth in DVOA, the Broncos’ 22.6 points per game yielded were 16th last season despite re-deploying starters Chris Harris, Von Miller, Derek Wolfe and Rahim Moore after season-ending injuries that restrained the defense in 2013.

As of right now, more than a third of the Broncos’ starting lineup are free agents, and other than promising to apply the franchise tag to Demaryius Thomas, the statuses of the rest of Denver’s key contract-year players (Julius Thomas, Terrance Knighton, Orlando Franklin) are murky. Both Demaryius and Julius Thomas reportedly turned down extensions, and Knighton has alerted media he’s unsatisfied with the Broncos’ effort to bring him back. Still a good bet for 12-win seasons, with a QB-record 11 of them, Manning probably returns to make the Broncos AFC West favorites again, but whether they take care of their own will shape this offseason. Manning’s presence triggered spending sprees for a Broncos team that relied on mostly second-tier free agents for years prior to his arrival. But now that one or possibly two years remain in Manning’s career, Denver may not be the marquee free agency destination it was.

Coaching Changes:

Counting the Broncos’ 2011 wild card conquest and their AFC title in 2013, Fox won 49 games in four years. That total trails only Bill Belichick (56) and Pete Carroll (50) during that span. But it couldn’t coax GM John Elway to grant Fox, who received a three-year contract extension last April, a fifth season in the Mile High City. After allowing a risky switch from a pro-style attack to a read-option approach for Tim Tebow, Fox’s degree of difficulty lessened with Manning’s arrival. But higher stakes came with that, and Denver lost three times as a playoff point-spread favorite, ultimately re-routing the conservative 60-year-old coach to the Bears.

“The working relationship there between he and John Elway, it wasn’t the greatest working relationship. It started off great, but then it started not working out,” Jay Glazer said during a Fox Sports 1 segment in January. “… John Elway looked at this season as, ‘This is all or nothing. With what we spent, you’ve got to go win us a Super Bowl.'”

Elway’s replacement hires were somewhat conservative.

Kubiak didn’t join Dan Quinn, Todd Bowles or even Gase among the hot-candidates list in January, but his relationship with Elway provided the trump card for the 53-year-old who spent 20 years as a player and coordinator in Denver. Unlike Gase, who interviewed for the Broncos’ and four other HC spots, Kubiak only took one meeting after elevating the Ravens’ offense last year. Although Kubiak’s eight-year tenure as Texans head coach brought just two playoff berths and concluded with a 2-14 campaign and late-season firing in 2013, his rushing offenses ranked in the top 10 in four of the past five seasons with the most recent on the back of journeyman Justin Forsett‘s 1,266 yards. The zone-blocking scheme Kubiak will use again in Denver may have peaked in the NFL during his first coaching stint there. Five Broncos runners, including Olandis Gary and Reuben Droughns, totaled 1,000-yard seasons from 1995-05.

Although Kubiak is still expected to call plays, something he didn’t do until 2005 under Mike Shanahan in his previous Broncos stint, this will be Dennison’s eighth year as an offensive coordinator. A longtime Broncos assistant prior to taking over as Denver’s OC in 2006, Dennison followed Kubiak to Houston and Baltimore. Joe Flacco established career highs in passing yards and TDs under Dennison’s watch as QBs coach last season. Despite his familiarity with Kubiak’s play action-heavy system, Dennison won’t have the same opportunities Gase did. The sideline architect calling the shots for the Broncos’ accelerated attack that set numerous NFL records in 2013, Gase could be missed as the Broncos transition away from an offense that thrived on creating short- and mid-range space for Manning’s targets to an older model with fewer formations and nuances.

The most notable aspect of Phillips’ return to Denver is the return of a 3-4 defense. Aside from the two Josh McDaniels years, the Broncos have deployed a 4-3 look as their base since Phillips’ last stint with the franchise — as their DC from 1989-92 and head coach in the two successive seasons. Fired three times as a head coach, the 67-year-old has supervised seven teams’ defenses dating back to 1981 and enjoyed success revitalizing units. Phillips won’t have to reshape as much in his new gig with personnel that should be able to adjust to role shifts. Larger defensive ends Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson make for better 5-technique candidates than ends from most 4-3 teams. Two speed-rushers (Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware) with experience pursuing from two-point stances and outside linebackers who led the team in tackles the past two years: Danny Trevathan in 2013 and Brandon Marshall last season, respectively, are also due back.

Key Free Agents

The variable in that scenario and a key component in the Broncos’ offseason matrix is whether they want to pay up to keep the fulcrum of their formidable run defenses the past two years. Knighton has the size to play nose in a 3-4 set but not the experience, and although he was an active force in the Broncos finishing seventh and second in run stoppage in his two seasons, he logged 528 snaps last year — 32nd-most among defensive tackles. Adding to the uncertainty surrounding the gregarious lineman is his reported demand of $7.5MM per season, a figure that would rank second among 3-4 DTs in the league. Even with Demaryius Thomas’ presumed franchise tag salary taking up almost half of the Broncos’ cap room, Knighton returning at $7.5MM per season makes more sense if Denver still planned to play a 4-3. Twenty 4-3 defensive tackle contracts exceed the value of the third-highest 3-4 NT’s deal, according to OverTheCap. Knighton’s two-year, $4.5MM pact turned out to be a bargain for the Broncos, but the odds of the team meeting his new asking price are slim.

That decision becomes more complicated with multiyear starters Julius Thomas, Franklin and Moore, as well as several lower-value starters, up for new deals. Assuming the Broncos don’t reach a long-term accord with Demaryius Thomas, his franchise tag of approximately $12.8MM will make re-ups for the aforementioned players difficult. If the Broncos follow through on not re-signing Knighton or the aforementioned trio of 2011 draftees, they’ll continue a thrifty trend when it comes to keeping their own picks. The Broncos currently have just two of their own draft choices on second contracts — Ryan Clady and David Bruton — although Harris and Britton Colquitt were undrafted players they re-signed.

Using the method of bringing in outside help the past two years by signing big names like Ware, Talib, Ward and Wes Welker, the Broncos effectively allowed the players from previous regimes’ drafts to leave, and excluding Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, none were above-average starters. With that being the case this year with Julius Thomas, Franklin (PFF’s 13th-best guard last season; subscription required) or Virgil Green, who based on his run-blocking prowess outranked Thomas in PFF’s tight end hierarchy, permitting the bulk of a class chosen by this front office to depart may send a bad message to the locker room.

Keeping Julius Thomas would go a long way to the passing game staying in high gear, but the 26-year-old tight end appears set on an exit strategy. Beyond Knighton, Green could then be the No. 3 priority for the Broncos considering his productive stretch once ground gains became more prudent after Thomas re-injured his ankle. Of the unrestricted FAs, center Will Montgomery, who worked in Shanahan’s zone scheme in Washington prior to signing a one-year deal last season, could slot just behind Green on the Broncos’ itinerary. He wouldn’t cost much to retain. Aiming to return for his age-34 season, Welker will play elsewhere after an inconsistent and punishing Broncos tenure.

Positions Of Need

Of the quarterbacks who started all 16 games last season, Manning was the least-sacked at just 16. Although his accuracy against the blitz waned considerably, Manning’s 2.22 seconds per release makes official sacks tricky. But the Broncos used three players at right tackle last season, made changes at center and right guard and scrapped some of the aggressive elements offensively after the Patriots, Raiders, and Rams regularly pressured Manning in midseason games. Beyond Clady and Louis Vasquez, the group will see more reconfiguration.

With Franklin, who often struggled to match up with quicker pass-rushers at right tackle but adapted his power game well at left guard, likely moving on, Manuel Ramirez being a better fit in a man-blocking scheme and Montgomery more of a stop-gap fix than multiyear solution, the Broncos will need at least three linemen in free agency or the draft. They drafted Michael Schofield in the third round last year to work at right tackle, but undrafted FA Paul Cornick saw game reps instead; Schofield didn’t dress for a game as a rookie. Kubiak’s most recent right tackle in Houston, 27-year-old Derek Newton, would be a fit with former Broncos draft choices Ryan Harris and Tyler Polumbus serving as lower-end options at Denver’s most troublesome position. Miami’s Ereck Flowers or LSU’s La’el Collins could still be on the board at No. 28 if the Broncos fail to land a proven tackle in free agency.

The Broncos will likely draft at least one interior lineman in the early-to-mid rounds while signing another. Vasquez’s move back to right guard, where he was a first-team All-Pro in 2013, will help this transition. But a veteran will join as well with not much in the way of existing depth here, although 2014 sixth-round pick Matt Paradis had a year to develop behind Montgomery and Ramirez last season.

Not utilized much in pass-rush situations, Knighton remained the Broncos’ only proven run-stopper inside with 2013 first-rounder Sylvester Williams regressing after a promising finish as a rookie. A four-year starter in a 3-4 defense, Cardinals run-stopping NT Dan Williams would be a good consolation prize here with Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley and Knighton dominating the market’s defensive tackle hype.

If the Broncos whiff on re-signing Green as well, they’ll have to start over at tight end with Jacob Tamme also a free agent and relegated to special teams duty the last two years. Green does not have the separation ability Julius Thomas does, so even if the Broncos can convince him to stay, they’ll need to add a move tight end. Jordan Cameron seems bound to leave Cleveland with the quarterback position in shambles and offers good receiving skills, but he may draw an offer in the neighborhood of Thomas’ despite his injury-marred contract year. Considering how much the Broncos have relied on familiarity in their offseason hires, Owen Daniels (Kubiak’s tight end for nine straight seasons) seems like the realistic backup option to Thomas. Denver’s passing game would take a hit in that event with an clear athletic chasm residing between those two players.

Once the Broncos traded up to take Cody Latimer in the second round last year, their 2015 plan appeared clear: move Emmanuel Sanders back to the slot where the Steelers used him and align Latimer outside after Welker’s contract expires. But Latimer, who displayed an elite catch radius at Indiana, received sparse reps behind the Broncos’ top three while Jarvis Landry and Donte Moncrief became regulars despite being selected later. It would be difficult to imagine Denver turning to Andre Caldwell here despite the veteran being under contract; he had a rough year. But in an offense that relies more on double-tight end sets, there won’t be as much onus on Latimer than in Gase’s three-wide looks.

Ward and Moore in a way complemented each other well, with both safeties exhibiting a clear strength. Moore rebounded from his infamous playoff misplay and a life-threatening injury in 2013 with a steadier coverage campaign. That facet helped justify his weakness against the run, which isn’t as big of an issue for a free safety. Working often as a sub-package linebacker, Ward finished with the seventh-worst coverage grade among the 87 safeties PFF graded. With Ward signed long-term, the Broncos will need to place a premium on coverage skills in the likely event they replace Moore. Depth-wise, David Bruton serves as a key special teamer and physical-type safety, and Quinton Carter will be allowed to leave after missing two full seasons due to injury. The Bills’ Da’Norris Searcy and Chiefs’ Ron Parker, who began the year as a cornerback, are possible contingency plans to team with Ward.

The impending James Casey visit could fulfill the Broncos’ quest for their first fullback slot in three years. The new regime will sign one, leaving fewer opportunities for Manning to work in his preferred three-WR set.

Extension Candidates:

The Broncos’ best draft since at least 2006, which produced Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Elvis Dumervil and Chris Kuper, started with Miller. The second pick in what became the first draft under the new collective bargaining agreement, Miller is perhaps the NFL’s second-best all-around defensive talent to J.J. Watt. Unlike Watt, selected nine spots later in 2011, Miller does not have a long-term agreement and will enter the final season of his rookie contract after the Broncos picked up his fifth-year option. Legal and substance-abuse issues notwithstanding, Miller is primed to be the premier defensive player in the 2016 free agent class should the Broncos not work out a deal or use the franchise tag on him.

Unless Miller finds himself in off-the-field trouble again, it’s unlikely he’ll hit that market. Ranking as PFF’s best 4-3 outside linebacker by a substantial margin from 2011-13 (subscription required) and second-best in 2014, he’s paired a dynamic pass-rushing skill set (49 sacks) with elite run-containing ability. His second contract should eclipse Clay Matthews’ total value of $66MM. Seeing what the Chiefs do with Justin Houston will help set a price for the Broncos’ more well-rounded linebacker. A move back to the 3-4 he starred in at Texas A&M, Miller and his already-diverse repertoire of edge maneuvers could be further on display this season, making the Broncos’ decision easier.

Another PFF wunderkind as the third-best 4-3 end last year, Jackson looks to finally be given a starting role in his contract year after outperforming starting end Wolfe the past two seasons. Denver’s fifth-round selection in 2012’s flashed consistently as a reserve end and tackle with the size to remain up front in a 3-4. Similar to the Ravens’ Pernell McPhee, Jackson could see his value rise out of his team’s price range with another good year. The Broncos would be wise to discuss a plan for the future with their versatile 25-year-old utility talent before this happens, but with big deals for Ware and likely Miller and the three pricey long-term contracts in the secondary, there may not be enough space to make a substantial offer.

Without factoring in any money that could be allocated to Demaryius Thomas, Miller and any free agents this year, the Broncos have $51.7MM of cap room in 2016, which is among the NFL’s lower third, according to OverTheCap.

Overall Outlook:

The Broncos still possess more talent than most teams, but the Super Bowl-or-bust mantra they used the past two seasons doesn’t seem as appropriate now. Those rosters had clear identities and, at least coming into the season, Manning in peak form. Without certainty on either matter at present, pressure looms for the Broncos in the coming weeks to retain the right players and continue to generate good value from the outsiders they sign. The first part of that equation wasn’t as big of an issue for them in recent years with no free agents of this caliber potentially leaving. Having to replace several quality starters and produce a better result may be asking too much. If the Broncos can’t stay on their current level after they cleared out the coaching staff, then Elway will face real criticism for the first time in his tenure. Manning regressing much further likely ensures that reality.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Steelers

February 24th, 2015 at 11:03pm CST by Rory Parks

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Ben Roethlisberger, QB: $18,395,000
  2. Lawrence Timmons, LB: $12,566,250
  3. Antonio Brown, WR: $9,787,500
  4. Troy Polamalu, S: $8,250,000
  5. Maurkice Pouncey, C: $8,100,000
  6. Cortez Allen, CB: $6,981,000
  7. Marcus Gilbert, T: $6,980,000
  8. Cameron Heyward, DL: $6,969,000
  9. Heath Miller, TE: $5,666,666
  10. Mike Mitchell, S: $4,950,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 22 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

By virtue of a Week 17 victory against division rival Cincinnati, the Steelers snagged the AFC North title in 2014, which is impressive enough in its own right, but especially so when considering that the division sent three teams to the playoffs last year. Much of Pittsburgh’s success was built on its tremendous offensive performance, as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger enjoyed a career year behind an offensive line that managed to keep him mostly upright, and Le’Veon Bell established himself as a premier all-purpose threat. Antonio Brown, meanwhile, proved that he is one of the league’s most prolific receivers, catching an incredible 129 passes for nearly 1,700 yards. He even added a passing touchdown and a punt return touchdown to the 13 TDs that he hauled in through the air. Combined with the strong showings of second-year wideout Markus Wheaton and rookie Martavis Bryant, the Steelers offense looks like it will be a powerhouse for the foreseeable future.

The defense, though, was a different story, and its underwhelming performance played a major role in the team’s disappointing defeat at the hands of wildcard entrant Baltimore in the first round of the playoffs. According to Pro Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric, Pittsburgh’s defense was the third-worst in the league in 2014, while their offense was the second-best. The secondary’s performance was especially troubling, and that unit will be a primary focal point of the team’s offseason.

Former NFL agent Joel Corry recently tabbed the Steelers as having one of the worst salary cap situations in the league, and even the inevitable extension of Roethlisberger’s contract and the departure of a few aging veterans would not bring a ton of relief. After years of so-called salary cap hell, the Steelers will once again have to make every penny count over the next few months.

Key Free Agents

There are several notable names on the Steelers’ list of pending free agents, but only one is likely to generate a great deal of discussion: Jason Worilds. Pittsburgh used the transition tag on Worilds last season, and it has not ruled out using it again in 2015. The cost for the transition tag this year, though, will likely be around $11MM, and just last week GM Kevin Colbert implied that Worilds’ time in Pittsburgh may be up.

Jason Worilds (vertical)

Worilds ranked as the 11th-best 3-4 outside linebacker out of 46 qualified players according to Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required), and his departure would leave a bit of a gap in the team’s pass rush, which has been among the league’s worst in each of the last two seasons. But although Worilds is a good player, he is not a great player at this point in his career, and the Steelers may be better off spending their money elsewhere. Although sack totals are by no means the best way to measure a player–particularly a player like Worilds, who has shown that he can also play well against the run–Worilds’ eight sacks suggest that his production would not be irreplaceable.

Outside of Worilds, the remainder of Pittsburgh’s free agent crop is rather underwhelming. Although Ike Taylor and James Harrison conjure fond memories for Steelers fans, their play has inevitably deteriorated in recent seasons as they reach the end of their careers. There has been talk that both players could retire or follow former defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau to Tennessee, but it is unlikely that their departure would have anything other than sentimental import for the Steelers.

Coaching Changes

Speaking of LeBeau, who served as the team’s defensive coordinator from 1995-1996 and from 2004-2014 before stepping down from his position in January, his absence from the Steelers’ sidelines will be a strange one. LeBeau enjoyed tremendous success as the leader of Pittsburgh’s defense, and although his replacement, Keith Butler, will retain LeBeau’s familiar 3-4 scheme, the overall dynamic will certainly be different.

Butler will be tasked with getting the most out of a defense that has some young talent in unproven linebackers Ryan Shazier and Jarvis Jones, both of whom suffered significant injuries in 2014, and up-and-coming defensive end Cameron Heyward. But outside of those players, there is little to be excited about on the defensive side of the ball (assuming Worilds does not, in fact, return). We learned earlier this month that the team would target pass rushers and defensive backs in free agency and the draft, and given the talent disparity between Pittsburgh’s offense and defense, it would appear that the front office is prepared to devote most of its efforts this offseason to restocking the talent in Butler’s unit.

Contract Issues

Given the way Roethlisberger performed in 2014, there is no reason to believe he cannot continue playing at an All-Pro level for the next four or five seasons. To that end, we have heard for a few months that the team was preparing to give the face of its franchise a hefty extension, with something along the lines of a six-year, $120MM deal in play. Such an extension would likely lower Roethlisberger’s cap number for this year, thereby giving the team the financial wiggle room it needs to address the defense in free agency. Contract talks are progressing, and an agreement could come within the next several weeks.

On a less pleasant note, the Steelers could choose to part ways with Troy Polamalu, who has lost much of the dynamic playmaking ability that made him one of the most-feared safeties in the league for years. Releasing Polamalu would clear about $3.7MM in cap space, and even though the internal options to replace him are less than inspiring, the team may have no other choice but to part ways with the future Hall-of-Famer.

Cortez Allen, who was rewarded with an extension in September after a solid 2013 season, was nothing short of a disaster in 2014, and the team could choose to let him go rather than risk suffering through a similar performance in 2015. Though Allen’s release would create a minimal amount of cap room, it may be more logical for the Steelers to see if he can rebound in 2015 rather than cut a player at a position of need just one year removed from a strong campaign.

The team might also choose to extend guard David DeCastro, who has established himself as one of the better interior offensive linemen in the league over the course of the last several seasons, and Heyward, whose pass-rushing skills are still developing but who has shown great promise as an edge-setter on the defensive line. At this point, an extension is more likely for Heyward, who can become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year. With DeCastro, the Steelers can buy a little more time if they exercise his fifth-year option, which would keep him under club control for 2016.

Overall Outlook

The Steelers, traditionally known for their iconic defenses, saw a true changing of the guard in 2014. Their offense, while always solid or better under Roethlisberger’s leadership, absolutely exploded last season, propelling Pittsburgh to the AFC North crown. The defense, meanwhile, will be the Steelers’ undoing in 2015 if they cannot utilize their minimal cap room and the draft to address their needs in the secondary and in the pass rush. A team that relies so heavily on their offense is rarely a title contender, but if Butler can find some of LeBeau’s magic, and if the team can unearth a gem or two in the draft, 2015 might just yield another chance at a seventh Super Bowl title.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Indianapolis Colts

February 24th, 2015 at 7:49pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Vontae Davis, CB: $11,250,000
  2. Robert Mathis, OLB: $7,750,000
  3. Anthony Castonzo, T: $7,438,000
  4. Arthur Jones, DT: $7,100,000
  5. Andrew Luck, QB: $7,034,363
  6. Gosder Cherilus, T: $6,900,000
  7. Greg Toler, CB: $5,833,334
  8. D’Qwell Jackson, LB: $5,750,000
  9. Erik Walden, OLB: $4,250,000
  10. Donald Thomas, T: $3,750,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 29 overall pick
  • Acquired sixth-round pick from Seahawks in deal for Marcus Burley.
  • Acquired seventh-round pick from Cowboys in deal for Caesar Rayford.
  • Owe seventh-round pick to 49ers for Cam Johnson.

Other:

Overview

Year three of the Andrew Luck era was another successful one for the Colts, whose 11-5 record was enough to earn them a second straight AFC South crown and a third consecutive playoff berth. The Colts also scored a pair of postseason victories, including a road upset over old friend Peyton Manning and the Broncos, before bowing out at the hands of the Super Bowl-winning Patriots in the conference championship.Andrew Luck

Indianapolis has improved by one playoff round per season under Luck and head coach Chuck Pagano, going from a wild-card loss to a divisional defeat to an AFC title game exit. The next logical step is the Super Bowl. In order to get there, though, the Colts will need a highly productive offseason – one which sees general manager Ryan Grigson fortify the roster around his 25-year-old franchise quarterback.

Positions Of Need

The Colts ranked first in the NFL in passing, third in total yardage and sixth in points per game in 2014. Those numbers would indicate that their offense isn’t in need of much help. However, they were a pedestrian 17th in Football Outsiders’ offensive efficiency ratings, their rushing attack ranked 22nd in yardage, and two of their established wide receivers are without contracts. Thus, there’s clearly work to be done.

Running back is a position the Colts are sure to address in the coming months. That could simply mean re-signing free agent-to-be Ahmad Bradshaw, though the eight-year veteran has dealt with major injury issues as a Colt and appeared in just 13 of a possible 32 regular-season games. To his credit, the 28-year-old racked up impressive numbers (725 total yards and eight touchdowns) prior to breaking his fibula last November. After Bradshaw got hurt, Dan Herron emerged as Indy’s most effective back. Herron averaged a terrific 4.5 yards per rush, but it was only over 78 attempts and his career sample size of 87 carries in three years is minuscule.

If the Colts don’t believe Bradshaw or Herron is the solution to their backfield woes, they might think differently of 10-year veteran Frank Gore. Multiple sources have linked Indianapolis to the career 49er, who the Sacramento Bee’s Matt Barrow wrote in January was “curious” about joining the Luck-led Colts. More recently, Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller said last week (video link) that Gore to Indianapolis was a “shoo-in.” The bruising Gore would make sense as a stopgap, considering Colts O-coordinator Pep Hamilton is a proponent of a power running game.

The Colts also have uncertainty at receiver, where their only signed, viable options after T.Y. Hilton are Donte Moncrief and ex-CFL star Duron Carter. All three are 25 or younger, a far cry from Reggie Wayne – the Colts’ biggest free agent in terms of name recognition. The 36-year-old, who has played all 14 of his pro seasons with the Colts and caught over 1,000 passes, hasn’t yet informed the team if he plans on returning in 2015. Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star wrote last week that the Colts are “noncommittal” about Wayne, who has battled injuries and dips in production the last two years.

In the event the Colts part ways with Wayne and enable fellow free agent Hakeem Nicks to walk, they could turn to the open market to find a complement to Hilton. There are several accomplished receivers who are expected to test the market. One option is four-year Raven Torrey Smith. The 6-foot, 205-pounder has been both effective (213 receptions, 16.9 YPC, 30 TDs) and durable, having played in all 64 of Baltimore’s regular-season games during his career, and would give Luck a proven wideout to team with Hilton. It may work in the Colts’ favor that their new receivers coach, Jim Hostler, held the same position in Baltimore from 2011-13 and tutored Smith for three years. Signing Smith would take a sizable chunk out of the Colts’ $39MM-plus in cap space. Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com tweeted earlier this month that Smith rejected a five-year, $35MM offer ($19MM in guarantees) from the Ravens prior to last season.

Obviously, in order to get the most out of their backs and receivers (whomever they may be), the Colts will need a dependable offensive line. They have a strong twosome in stellar left tackle Anthony Castonzo and guard Jack Mewhort, but the rest of the group is less capable. Even though right tackle Gosder Cherilus had a miserable, injury-plagued 2014, the seven-year veteran is expected to stay in place because he’s been good in the past and cutting him would cost the Colts more than keeping him. That leaves center and guard as areas Grigson may try to upgrade.

Indy started a slew of different centers last season and, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), A.Q. Shipley was the strongest of the group. However, the restricted free agent is on the outs, Holder wrote last week. Further, according to Holder, Grigson won’t use more than a late-round pick on a center. He could go the free agency route for the Chiefs’ Rodney Hudson or the Raiders’ Stefen Wisniewski. Either would be probable upgrades over the Colts’ in-house options (Khaled Holmes and Jonotthan Harrison). Joel Corry, a cap expert and former agent, believes Hudson will end up with a deal upward of $5MM per year, according to the Kansas City Star’s Terez A. Paylor. Wisniewski is seeking money in the realm of an average starting center, ESPN’s Michael Wagaman has reported.

As for the guard position, the 49ers’ Mike Iupati heads the free agent class and, as an elite-level run blocker, would seem to be an excellent fit for a Colts team that needs to fix its ground game. The three-time Pro Bowler is going to cost a lot, without question, and landing him would likely mean moving Mewhort from left to right guard – where the soon-to-be second-year man played occasionally at Ohio State. Regardless, with Mewhort and Iupati, Indy would have a top-end guard tandem on paper.

On the other side of the ball, the Colts’ defensive line has already begun undergoing changes. The team made a newsworthy move Monday in releasing tackle Ricky Jean-Francois, who was due $5.5MM next season. In the wake of the Jean-Francois news, Holder speculated that the Colts could pursue the likes of Nick Fairley (Detroit) and Terrance Knighton (Denver) on the open market. Adding Fairley or Knighton would be auspicious for the Colts, who finished last season an unspectacular 18th in conventional run defense and 19th in Football Outsiders’ version. The Colts’ kryptonite, the Patriots, exploited that area of Indy’s defense in both teams’ matchups last season: LeGarrette Blount rushed for 148 yards in New England’s 45-7 AFC championship drubbing. Two months prior, the previously unknown Jonas Gray famously eclipsed the 200-yard mark in a 42-20 Pats victory.

Besides stopping the run, the other key function of the front seven is generating a pass rush. Despite the fact that the Colts finished 2014 with the ninth-most sacks in the league (41), Grigson still wants more rushers, Mike Chappell of RTV6 tweeted last week.

Eleven-year Colts veteran Robert Mathis paced the league in sacks two years ago (19.5) before missing all of last season, but Indy wouldn’t be wise to think his return will cure its ills. Mathis sat out 2014 because of a PED suspension and, worse, a torn Achilles. Moreover, he’s on the wrong end of the aging curve at 34. ESPN’s Mike Wells reported Monday that the Colts are “likely” to draft a rusher to complement Mathis and Jonathan Newsome, also noting that they’ll keep an eye on free agency. Wells specifically mentioned the Chiefs’ Justin Houston, who led the league in sacks last season (22), and the Giants’ Jason Pierre-Paul, on whom New York is expected to place the franchise tag.

The prime area of concern on the back end of the Colts’ defense is safety, where they’re especially fallow. They already cut one starter from last season in strong safety LaRon Landry, while the other (free safety Mike Adams) is presently unsigned. So is main reserve Sergio Brown. There does seem to be optimism about the return of Adams, whom Grigson said the team would “love” to keep. At 33, Adams had a career year in 2014 with five interceptions and earned his first career Pro Bowl trip.

Regardless of whether Adams re-signs, the position will still need attention, which Pagano acknowledged. “There’s a bunch of guys out there in free agency we could take a look at,” Pagano said, according to Holder. “There’s a bunch of guys here at the draft we’ll evaluate.” 

The premier free agent is expected to be the Patriots’ Devin McCourty. Signing him would greatly aid the Colts while simultaneously dealing a tremendous blow to rival New England. Draft-wise, former Alabama star Landon Collins is already on the Colts’ radar.

Key Free Agents

The Colts have other noteworthy free agents besides the aforementioned. One is defensive lineman Cory Redding, who isn’t a slam dunk to play anywhere next season. The 34-year-old is pondering retirement after playing a substantial role for last year’s Colts, appearing in over 70% of defensive snaps and garnering praise from Pro Football Focus for his efforts.

Indianapolis also has decisions to make on two of Redding’s fellow integral defenders, linebacker Jerrell Freeman and cornerback Darius Butler. As a restricted free agent, Freeman is almost sure to return to the Colts. Butler, however, is unrestricted and could change uniforms as early as next month. The six-year veteran has spent the last three seasons with the Colts, totaling eight interceptions. While none of those INTs came in 2014, Butler was still a solid part of Indy’s above-average pass defense.

Finally, there’s a trio of unsung hero types in offensive lineman Joe Reitz, safety Colt Anderson and linebacker Andy Studebaker. The latter two are special teams stalwarts, while the 29-year-old Reitz’s best trait has been his versatility. Last year, in fact, he started at a team-high three different O-line positions and fared well. None of Reitz, Anderson or Studebaker should cost a ton for the Colts to bring back, but they’re all useful role players. Indy would be smart to re-sign all three.

Possible Cap Casualties

There’s one painfully obvious cap casualty on the Colts: Trent Richardson. It seems inevitable that the relationship between the Colts and the disappointing running back will end this offseason.

Richardson, whom the Colts acquired from Cleveland for a first-round pick in 2013, has been a colossal bust in his two seasons with Indianapolis. The 24-year-old has played 29 regular-season games as a Colt and registered just 977 rushing yards with a paltry 3.09 per-carry average. Worsening matters is that Richardson was scratched for the Colts’ final two playoff games last month, the latter of which was a suspension for missing a team walkthrough. With all of that considered, it’s clear that the next, final step in the marriage between the two sides is a divorce. If Indy releases Richardson, it will save more than $3MM for next season (provided Richardson’s guarantees void because of his suspension). The writing is on the wall.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

The Colts are going to have to shell out major money in the near future for some of their paramount offensive players.

Atop the list is Luck, who will be paid handsomely for both his accomplishments and his status as the face of the Colts’ franchise. During his three-year career, Luck has started all 52 of the Colts’ games (playoffs included), led the team to three straight double-digit-win outputs, and thrown for 86 touchdowns and nearly 13,000 yards in the regular season.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweeted last month that Indy was working on a contract that could make Luck the league’s highest-paid player. Team owner Jim Irsay refuted Schefter’s report, saying Luck still has two years left on his deal. If he isn’t extended by later this offseason, the Colts will exercise Luck’s 2016 option to make sure he’ll at least be theirs for two more seasons. Barring something disastrous, though, Indianapolis will surely do everything in its power to keep Luck under center for a lot longer.

The Colts will have to make more immediate decisions on three of Luck’s offensive mates – Hilton, Castonzo and tight end Coby Fleener – all of whom are scheduled for free agency next year.

Hilton came into the league with Luck in 2012 and has developed into his QB’s go-to target. The 5-foot-9, 178-pounder just completed his second straight 82-catch season, one in which he set a career high in yardage (1,345) and tied his previous touchdown mark (seven). The 25-year-old could end up with a contract similar to the one the Jets gave Eric Decker last offseason. Decker was coming off his second consecutive 80-catch, 1,000-yard season as a Bronco when he signed a five-year, $36.25MM deal with New York ($15MM in guarantees). He put up 216 catches (13.7 YPC) and 32 touchdowns from 2011-13, when his age ranged from 24 to 26. Compare that to Hilton’s three-year stretch – 214 grabs (15.4 YPC) and 19 scores from ages 23 to 25 – and you have the neighborhood in which his next contract is likely to live.

Castonzo, the cornerstone of the Colts’ offensive line, has appeared in and started 60 games since joining the team as a second-round pick in 2011. The 26-year-old has been the quintessence of reliability over the last three years. He played every offensive snap for the Colts in 2012, missed only four in 2013, and led all NFL O-linemen in snaps last season (1,115). Castonzo will make $7.4MM in 2015, the fifth-year option Indy picked up last offseason. That option is the value of the highest-paid 25 players at the position, excluding the top three players. An extension should see him climb toward the lower end of the top 10, where yearly value ranges start at $8.5MM.

Finally, there’s Fleener – who was part of a superb Colts 2012 draft class that, as mentioned, also produced Luck and Hilton. Fleener finished 2014 ranked 16th among tight ends in catches (51), eighth in yardage (774) and tied for fifth in TDs (eight). His per-catch average was tops at the position among those with at least 25 receptions. He’ll make under $1.7MM next season and is sure to get a considerable raise between this offseason and next. If Fleener ends up in the top 10 tight ends in yearly contract value, that would mean a salary north of $5MM per annum.

Overall Outlook

Assuming Luck stays healthy, the least the Colts will do next season is rule their division for the third straight year. Whether they can ascend to greater heights and dethrone the Patriots in the AFC will hinge on how well Grigson handles the offseason. The GM will have plenty of money to work with, which should help the Colts repair at least some of their issues and close the gap on the Pats, but he’ll have to keep the long-term future in mind when he considers spending it. His most important order of business this offseason will be locking up Indy’s offensive linchpins for the foreseeable future.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Market For 4-3 Outside Linebackers

February 24th, 2015 at 12:03pm CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to linebackers. Having already covered 3-4 outside linebackers in our look at edge defenders, today’s focus is on 4-3 OLBs. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

If a team surveys the free agent market this winter in search of an outside linebacker, that club would be much better off running a 3-4 scheme than a 4-3 system, given the talent available at each spot. While there are a handful of above-average 3-4 OLBs expected to be available two weeks from now, the top tier of 4-3 OLBs is led by Weatherspoon, who missed the 2014 season with a ruptured Achilles and sat out over half of the 2013 campaign as well, due to knee and foot injuries.

While he may not be the most reliable player here when it comes to health, Weatherspoon is still just 27 years old, and averaged 110 tackles per season in 2011 and 2012. And it’s not as if the other players in this group are slam dunks to play 16 games either — Durant and Briggs also missed significant chunks of the 2013 and 2014 seasons with injuries of their own.

If these players stay healthy, they should all but solid contributors for new or old teams in 2015, but taking into account concerns about health, age (Briggs), and inconsistency (Smith), I don’t expect any of them to find a big payday on the open market.

Other unrestricted options:

There are a few interesting names here, including Herzlich, who played just 304 defensive snaps for the Giants in 2014, but graded out as one of the best run defenders at the position, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Casillas was a part-time contributor down the stretch for the Super Bowl champion Patriots. Hayes has 70 career starts on his résumé. Thomas and Williams each racked up 85+ tackles, and Anderson is only a year removed from a season of 100+ tackles himself.

Still, if the players in our first tier weren’t exactly impact performers, that applies to doubly to most of the guys on this list. Some could hold their own as starters, but most will be reserves, part-timers, or special teams contributors.

As a housekeeping note, Bynes would have been eligible for restricted free agency, but the Lions have announced they won’t tender him an RFA offer. While he could still return to Detroit, Bynes appears poised to have the opportunity to test the open market.

Restricted FAs:

Lamur earned the most playing time of anyone in this group, by far, but in 900+ defensive snaps, he graded as a below-average in pass coverage, run defense, and as a pass rusher, per PFF, which ranked him 39th out of 40 players at the position overall. The Bengals may have viewed his performance more favorably, but it remains to be seen whether it was enough to earn an RFA tender.

Besides Lamur, most of the other players on this list made more of an impact on special teams than on defense, though Johnson was the one exception. In addition to recording 11 special teams tackles, Johnson was also forced into action on defense during the second half, logging 251 snaps. The Broncos won’t want him starting at linebacker, and he certainly isn’t their top priority in free agency, but he’s a solid depth piece, and I expect the team to bring him back — we’ll see if Denver values him enough to make him an RFA tender offer, or if the club tries to re-sign him for less.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

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