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Offseason Outlook: Carolina Panthers

February 23rd, 2015 at 7:38pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Charles Johnson, DE: $20,020,000
  2. Cam Newton, QB: $14,666,000
  3. Ryan Kalil, C: $11,795,000
  4. Thomas Davis, LB: $9,900,000
  5. Jonathan Stewart, RB: $8,300,000
  6. Greg Olsen, TE: $7,800,000
  7. DeAngelo Williams, RB: $6,333,333
  8. Luke Kuechly, LB: $4,002,283
  9. Mike Tolbert, RB: $3,425,000
  10. Graham Gano, K: $3,100,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 25 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

If you need further evidence that the NFC South was the worst division in the NFL last season, it’s this: the Panthers regressed in nearly every major statistical category from 2013 to 2014 — they fell from 10th to 20th in offensive DVOA, while moving No. 3 to No. 14 in in defensive DVOA — shaved five wins off their final record, and gave Derek AndCam Newtonerson two starts at quarterback…and still won the division.

Cam Newton started 14 games — missing Week 1 with a rib injury and Week 15 after being involved in a car accident — and completed 58.5% of his passes for for 3,127 yards an 18 touchdowns; he added another 539 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. It wasn’t a spectacular season, but Newton was playing behind an offensive line that had lost Jordan Gross and Travelle Wharton, and throwing to receiving corps that had witnessed the defections of Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell, and Ted Ginn Jr.

Similarly, Carolina’s defense had been ravaged by free agency, as Mike Mitchell, Captain Munnerlyn, and Drayton Florence all left the squad before 2014. Star defensive end Greg Hardy, who had 26 sacks in the two seasons prior, missed all but one game after being placed on the commissioner’s exempt list following a domestic violence incident. Somehow, though, the Panthers managed to earn a postseason berth despite winning only seven games, and even won a playoff game, defeating the Cardinals in the wild card round before succumbing to the Seahawks in the divisional round.

The Panthers have already begun to overhaul their roster in anticipation of the new league year next month. Today we learned that the club will release longtime running back DeAngelo Williams, a move which will actually cost the team cap space (unless he’s designated as a post-June 1 cut). Williams’ release comes on the heels of Carolina cutting veteran safety Thomas DeCoud last week.

Key Free Agents

Hardy is the clear No. 1 free agent on the Panthers’roster — charges against the 26-year-old were recently dismissed, but it still remains unlikely that he’ll return to Carolina. He played last season under the franchise tag, so the cost to use that tag on him for a second consecutive season would be exorbitant. Moreover, the Panthers seem opposed to retaining Hardy due to the headache he caused last season. While not speaking about Hardy directly, Carolina general manager Dave Gettleman recently asked “Who wants the ticking time bomb?” regarding players with off-the-field concerns.

Elsewhere on the defensive line, the Panthers have two veteran tackles — Dwan Edwards and Colin Cole — eligible for free agency. Both are older free agents (Edwards is 33, Cole 34), but each played in excess of 350 snaps in 2014; Edwards, specifically, saw nearly 600 snaps. Carolina might want to get younger at the position, but a club can never have too much depth up front. Perhaps the team will look to retain at least one of Edwards or Cole on a modest, one-year deal.

Following Gross’ retirement, Byron Bell emerged as the starter at left tackle, but his production was extremely disappointing. Per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required), Bell ranked as the second-worst tackle in the league, finishing ahead of only Falcons rookie Jake Matthews. Bell wasn’t as bad as the starting right tackle during the early portion of his career, but he was still well below-average. Offensive line figures to be an area the Panthers address either in free agency or the draft, and both Bell and team source indicated today that the 26-year-old won’t be retained.

On the other hand, Carolina should look to retain reserve interior lineman Fernando Velasco, who started seven games last season, seeing action at both guard positions. The 30-year-old Velasco is probably something close to a replacement level talent at this point, but he was an above-average starter as recently as 2012. The Panthers have young players — Amini Silatolu and Trai Turner — at the guard spots, so Velasco could add valuable experience as the backup both there and at center.

27-year-old tight end Ed Dickson landed with in Carolina on a one-year deal prior to 2014 after spending his entire career with the Ravens. He played 532 snaps as the No. 2 TE to Greg Olsen, but wasn’t a standout blocker and caught only 10 passes. Dickson has expressed interest in re-signing with the Panthers on a multi-year deal (a lofty goal), but the club can probably do better.

Possible Cap Casualties

The Panthers don’t have a ton of players who could be pushed off the roster due to salary cap concerns. The only obvious candidate for release might be RB/FB Mike Tolbert, who’s scheduled to count $3.425MM against the cap next season. The 29-year-old is entering the final season of his two-year deal, and Carolina could clear $2.425MM in space by releasing him. He saw just 226 snaps in 2014, but given that the club just cut Williams, Tolbert’s role figures to grow in 2015, making his release unlikely.

Releasing veterans Jerricho Cotchery and Roman Harper could give the Panthers a combined $3MM windfall (if both were post-June 1 cuts). But both saw an extended amount of playing time last season, and performed at a capable level, so cutting them probably doesn’t make sense.

Positions Of Need

Pending any further cost-cutting maneuvers, the Panthers should have roughly $15.65MM of cap space to work with as free agency approaches. It’s not a ton of room, but Gettleman indicated last month that the club wouldn’t have to shop at the “dollar store” this offseason, meaning they probably won’t need to target the bargain-bin type of free agents they have during the past two years (although I would note that many of those low-cost signings worked out rather well).

The No. 1 area of concern on the Panthers roster — offensive line — hasn’t changed since last year. Tackle, specifically, needs to be upgraded, with Bell unlikely to return and right tackle Nate Chandler also not showing improvement. Following King Dunlap‘s re-upping with the Chargers on Sunday, there aren’t many options on the left side. If Michael Roos decides to hold off on retirement, I wonder if the Panthers would pay a premium to land the veteran. Alternatively, Carolina could try for Bryan Bulaga, the top right tackle available, with the intention of moving him back to the left side, the position he played in college. Or, Carolina could sign Bulaga, Doug Free, or another solid right tackle, and pursue a LT upgrade with the No. 25 pick in the draft.

If it solves its problem at tackle, Carolina could then shift its focus to receiver. Kelvin Benjamin was a revelation in his rookie season, but the club could use another weapon opposite him. Luckily, the free agent market for WRs is flush with options. Jeremy Maclin might be a little out the Panthers’ price range, but Torrey Smith could be a viable target. Moving a little further down the list, Michael Crabtree could be signed with the hopes of bounce-back season, or perhaps Denarius Moore tries to restart his career in Carolina.

Assuming that Hardy leaves for greener pastures, the Panthers will also need help at defensive end. In terms of pure skill, Carolina might not find anyone with the talent level that Hardy brings to the table, but there are certainly other options out there. Brandon Graham was solid for the Eagles in 2014, but if reports of him demanding $20MM in guarantees are true, he’d probably be too spendy for the Panthers. If the club continues its strategy of signing seemingly over-the-hill veterans, I could see them adding Osi Umenyiora, who wasn’t great as a stand-up pass-rusher with the Falcons but could succeed if returned to a 4-3 DE role, or taking on a chance on a 35-year-old Dwight Freeney.

Corner could be another area of concern, although Josh Norman and Bene Benwikere played very well, especially near the end of last season. The free agent CB market is barren, so that’s an area that will probably be addressed via the draft instead. With the release of Williams, the Panthers might also look to bring in another back to complement Jonathan Stewart, who often deals with injury concerns. I doubt they’d spend any significant money on the position, but they could bring in someone like Daniel Thomas or Jacquizz Rodgers as a insurance option.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The most pressing issue in Carolina at the moment is the future of Newton, who is signed through only 2015 thanks to the Panthers exercising his fifth-year option; he’ll be paid $14.67MM during the upcoming season. Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer reported over the weekend that the Panthers and Newton’s reps were set to meet at the combine in Indianapolis to begin discussing an extension, but noted that Newton prefers to let Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson ink out long-term deals first, setting the market for QB deals.

Newton probably won’t see the type of cash that Luck and Wilson will — rather, he’ll probably shoot for an AAV in the $20MM range. He’s already made it clear that he isn’t interested in a Colin Kaepernick-esque contract structure, so it sounds like he’ll be aiming for some relatively large guarantees. The Panthers could use the franchise tag on Newton in 2016 (at a hefty price), but I’d expect the two sides to agree to a deal at some point.

2013 Defensive Player of the Year Luke Kuechly is probably the best inside linebacker in the league, and among the top five or 10 defensive players in the game. The Panthers have a fifth-year option on him that will keep him under contract for the 2016 season at a reasonable rate. But Carolina can now open extension talks with their 23-year-old defensive stalwart, and Kuechly should be able to top the $10MM average salary brought in by Patrick Willis, currently the top earner among inside ILBs.

Olsen will become a free agent at season’s end, at it make sense for the club to get something done with him, as well. With major departures at wide receiver, Olsen (along with Benjamin) became Newton’s primary target, hauling 84 passes for more than 1,000 and six scores. He’ll be 30 years old next month, so he’s not young, but he should still be able to secure a three- or four-year commitment, possibly in the $7-8MM per year range.

Finally, Carolina will probably need to take a look at the contract of veteran defensive end Charles Johnson before the season. The eight-year veteran is scheduled to count $20.02MM against the cap next season, the highest such figure among 4-3 defensive ends. He’s still an excellent player (PFF’s No. 11 4-3 DE), so he’s not a candidate for release, but the Panthers probably need to ask Johnson to restructure his deal, something he’s done in each of the prior two offseasons. He only has two years left on his current pact, which doesn’t leave much room for spreading out prorated bonus money. So instead of a simple restructure, Carolina might need to extend him, tacking on a few years to his contract to make the forthcoming cap hits more palatable.

Overall Outlook

To the casual fan, the Panthers are coming off a highly-successful two-year run during which they made the playoffs in both seasons. More tuned-in observers, however, realize that Carolina was extremely lucky to play in such a subpar division last season, and that there are still numerous holes on the current roster. Newton needs to be re-signed, but Gettleman and head coach Ron Rivera can’t rest until other areas on the team — tackle, receiver, defensive end — are addressed, as well.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Market For Edge Defenders

February 23rd, 2015 at 4:53pm CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to edge defenders — 3-4 outside linebackers and 4-3 defensive ends. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

Teams in search of pass rushers this offseason will focus on this group, but that doesn’t mean every player on this list excels at getting to the quarterback. Sheard has seen his sack total decrease every season, and Reed has never gotten to the quarterback more than six times, but both guys played well against the run in 2014. Morgan, meanwhile, was Pro Football Focus’ top-rated cover man among 3-4 outside linebackers last season (subscription required), and players like Pierre-Paul and Hughes are solid in every aspect of the game.

Still, in today’s NFL, few skills are valued more highly than an ability to pressure the quarterback, which is why someone like Houston – 2014’s sack leader – figures to land one of the biggest contracts of the offseason, assuming he doesn’t just play on a one-year franchise deal. Hughes and Pierre-Paul lead off the next tier behind Houston, and Hardy certainly hasn’t the talent to lead this group in sacks next season, though it’s still not clear if he’ll face a suspension from the NFL for off-field issues.

Graham, Morgan, and McPhee are among the most interesting names on this list. Graham and Morgan are former first-rounders who never quite fit with their current teams, and who never quite lived up to expectations, but PFF’s data suggests both players have been very productive when given the opportunity. McPhee is another pass-rushing specialist who played a limited role in Baltimore, but excelled in that role, and could draw interest this winter from teams who foresee him taking on more responsibilities on defense.

Of course, teams eyeing these players will have to consider their defensive scheme. Some of these guys will be able to fit in as a 4-3 defensive end or a 3-4 outside linebacker, but most of them are more comfortable playing either one or the other. It’s also worth taking into account the fact that the top players in this group won’t necessarily reach the open market — Houston and Pierre-Paul will likely be franchised, and Hughes is a candidate for the tag as well.

Other unrestricted options:

They won’t land big contracts, but veterans like Freeney, Harrison, and Umenyiora may be the most productive players in this group for the 2015 season. A club looking for a part-time specialist could certainly do worse than landing one of those veterans.

Still, there’s upside to be found here. English likely won’t develop into a regular contributor at this point, but fellow first-round picks Clayborn and Alualu could still be above-average players in the right situation. Moats was very good in part-time duty for the Steelers last season, and Johnson racked up 39 total quarterback pressures for the Lions (though his status remains up in the air — he may be a restricted free agent). Acho, Ayers, Schofield, and Spencer are also intriguing names, for a variety of reasons.

Most of the players in this group will be situational players, or backups, but none of them should be particularly expensive, and pairing a run-first defender with a part-time pass rusher could be an effective, cost-conscious way to get solid production on the edge, without splurging on one of the market’s top free agents.

Restricted FAs:

Shelby played 420 defensive snaps for the Dolphins, and was an effective run stopper for the team, so he looks like the best bet to receive a qualifying offer, out of these three players. If the Chiefs and Seahawks decide to re-sign Moses and Scruggs, respectively, it will likely be for a salary less than the minimum RFA tender.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

Offseason Outlook: Jacksonville Jaguars

February 22nd, 2015 at 3:29pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Paul Posluszny, LB: $9,500,000
  2. Marcedes Lewis, TE: $8,200,000
  3. Justin Blackmon, WR: $5,785,625
  4. Luke Joeckel, T: $5,782,254
  5. Zane Beadles, G: $5,000,000
  6. Sen’Derrick Marks, DT: $4,825,000
  7. Chris Clemons, DE: $4,750,000
  8. Blake Bortles, QB: $4,694,273
  9. Red Bryant, DE: $4,500,000
  10. Josh Scobee, K: $4,387,500

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 3 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

Ever since winning 11 games and earning a postseason berth in 2007, the Jaguars have been among the worst teams in the NFL, finishing with non-losing record just once (2010) and registering a 34-78 mark during that span. But there are reasons for optimism in Jacksonville, especially on the defensive side of the ball, where head coach Gus BradleyCecil Shorts and coordinator Bob Babich led a unit that finished 20th in DVOA (16th in weighted DVOA), and featured contributions from unheralded players like Sen’Derrick Marks and rookies such as Telvin Smith.

Most of the focus, however, was on the Jaguars’ offense, where rookie quarterback Blake Bortles led a cavalcade of other first-year players including receivers Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, and Marquise Lee. Bortles, the third overall pick in last year’s draft, was mostly disappointing, completing just 59.8% of his passes for 2,908 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions while rating as the worst QB in the league according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). But there’s hope that with another year of development from both Bortles and the receivers, improvements along the offensive line, and another good year from running back Denard Robinson, the offense (and the club as a whole) can take a step forward in 2015.

Key Free Agents

As a rebuilding team, the Jaguars have one the least-talented rosters in the NFL, and as such, there aren’t a ton of pending free agents who are considered must re-signs. The most notable name among the FA list is receiver Cecil Shorts, a four-year veteran who’s been among the most visible Jacksonville players in recent years. The 27-year-old is a solid possession receiver, but he had a down year in 2014, catching only 53 balls in 12 starts. He’s already been linked to other WR-needy teams such as the Browns, and given the Jaguars’ stable of young pass-catchers, I’d expect them to let Shorts walk.

On defense, former first-round pick Tyson Alualu is also headed for unrestricted free agency. He’s been something of a bust so far in his career; he only saw about 470 snaps last season and wasn’t effective when playing. The Jags have a nice rotation along the defensive line, and even if they want to add more players to their front five, they can look to free agency to do so. Alualu isn’t an integral part of the defense, so it doesn’t make sense to retain him.

Jacksonville also has a pair of linebackers — Geno Hayes and J.T. Thomas — eligible for the open market. The 27-year-old Hayes started 11 games last year, posting a +5.9 PFF grade on nearly 600 snaps. He should be re-signed on a short, low-cost deal. Thomas, on the other hand, shouldn’t return. On more than 700 snaps, the 2011 draftee registered a -14.8 PFF mark, performing especially poorly against the run.

One final free agent of note on defense is cornerback Alan Ball, who played in only seven games after tearing his biceps. He’ll be 30 years old when the season begins, but he’s a solid player, and if the club can bring him back on a modest contract, he could act as veteran insurance in a secondary filled with youngsters.

Possible Cap Casualties

Defensive lineman Chris Clemons was a high-profile signing for the Jaguars just last offeason, agreeing to a four-year deal worth $17.5MM. But despite his knowledge of Bradley’s scheme, he struggled immensely in 2014, grading as the second-worst 4-3 DE in the league per PFF. Jacksonville could save $4.75MM by releasing the 33-year-old, and wouldn’t accrue any dead money by doing so. The club might wait to see how their defensive line looks after free agency and the draft, and if they’ve made significant improvements, Clemons could be a goner.

Another veteran on defense, linebacker Paul Posluszny, missed most of the season with a pectoral injury. He’s due $9.5MM against the cap next yer, and the Jaguars could clear all but $2MM of that by cutting him. The 30-year-old is viewed as a team leader, however, and Bradley has indicated that “Poz” will return. Still, it doesn’t seem reasonable to pay an aging LB a base salary in excess of $7MM, especially one coming off an injury. Perhaps Jacksonville will ask Posluszny to take a pay cut, but if he declines, he could be cut.

On offense, tight end Marcedes Lewis is scheduled to have the second-highest cap hit on the team (behind Posluszny) at $8.2MM, an extremely high figure for a soon-to-be 31-year-old who caught just 18 balls in eight games. He’s heading into the final year of his deal — the Jaguars would clear $6.8MM by cutting him, leaving just $1.4MM in dead money. Elsewhere on the offensive side of the ball, running back Toby Gerhart is most likely on the outs. He was overtaken by Robinson, and won’t justify his $3MM cap hit.

One thing to be considered: the Jaguars have the most cap space in the league, with more than $64MM to play with. They don’t need any additional space, so if they want to retain the players listed above, they can, without it being detrimental to their financial situation. So someone like Posluszny, who might have some off-the-field or locker room value, is more likely to be retained in Jacksonville than he might be in other cities.

Positions Of Need

With that $64MM worth of cap space, the Jaguars are set up to spend on a free agent class that actually lines up well with some of their needs. Topping that list is pass-rusher, where the club could use one or even two big-name free agents. Any of the top edge guys could make sense, so I think the Jags could end up targeting one higher-priced FA and one mid-tier player. They have the financial room to sign, say, Jason Pierre-Paul, while also throwing a one-year dart on Brian Orakpo. Or they could target Jerry Hughes while also adding someone like Brandon Graham. There are any number of combinations that make sense for Jacksonville, but it must improve its pass rush.

The linebacking unit could also use an upgrade, especially if Posluszny doesn’t return. The Jaguars could take a look at David Harris, a solid veteran who could be a stabilizing presence on a young roster. Rolando McClain could also be a target — he’s had off-the-field trouble and could be facing another failed drug test, but with $64MM in cap room, perhaps he’s the kind of talented yet troubled player the Jags can afford to take a risk on. Malcolm Smith could also land in Jacksonville, as he’s familiar with Bradley from the duo’s time in Seattle.

In the back end, the Jags could use another safety to pair with Jonathan Cyprien. If the club wants a veteran leader in the secondary, Antrel Rolle could be a nice addition, but if they want to go younger, they could sign Rahim Moore away from the Broncos. Dawan Landry could also make a return to Jacksonville — he played for the team from 2011-12.

On offense, Jacksonville needs to add at least one offensive lineman. 2013 No. 2 overall pick Luke Joeckel has struggled since entering the league, but the team probably has to give him at least one more season to figure things out at left tackle. But on the right side, I could see the Jags targeting Bryan Bulaga, the No. 1 free agent RT available. The Packers like to retain their own free agents, but Jacksonville has the cap space to outbid them. Additionally, if the club wants to upgrade at center, Rodney Hudson would make sense if the Jags are willing to meet his reported $7MM per year demand. Alternatively, they could bring in the Raiders’ Stefan Wisniewski, who should be a bit cheaper.

The Jaguars have a good group of young pass-catchers, but given a) that they have so much money to throw around and b) the receiver class is loaded, I could see them adding a high-priced WR. They’d surely jump at the chance to add a Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant, but neither of them are likely to actually hit free agency. But Randall Cobb could be the perfect addition for the Jags. He’s only 24, so he’ll still be in his prime as the rest of the team progresses. Cobb is reportedly seeking a $9MM AAV, a fee Jacksonville could easily afford.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The Jaguars have a fifth-year option decision to make on receiver Justin Blackmon. The 25-year-old has only played in four games since 2013, but he’s reportedly making good progress towards reinstatement. But given his off-the-field trials, there’s no way the Jaguars can justify exercising his option.

Jacksonville doesn’t have a ton of extension candidates, but they could look to tack on a few years to Lewis’ deal in the hopes of bringing down his 2015 cap hit. It’s possible that the club will just release the tight end instead, but if they don’t, restructuring his deal could save the Jags some money.

Overall Outlook

The Jaguars need to take a step toward respectability in 2015, and a successful offseason could help the team head towards that goal. Armed with a ton of cap room and the No. 3 overall pick, Jacksonville should be able to make improvements in nearly every area it deems necessary. Adding a few pass rushers, and getting some line help and perhaps another weapon for Bortles, could be the first step in the surge toward a winning record.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PFR Originals: 2/15/15 – 2/22/15

February 22nd, 2015 at 1:59pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Vikings

February 21st, 2015 at 9:26pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Adrian Peterson, RB: $15,400,000
  2. Greg Jennings, WR: $11,000,000
  3. Chad Greenway, LB: $8,800,000
  4. Everson Griffen, DE: $8,200,000
  5. Phil Loadholt, T: $6,750,000
  6. Kyle Rudolph, TE: $6,550,000
  7. Matt Kalil, T: $6,290,644
  8. John Sullivan, C: $5,750,000
  9. Brian Robison, DE: $5,650,000
  10. Matt Cassel, QB: $4,750,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 11 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

Employing both a first-time head coach and rookie quarterback, the Vikings finished with a 7-9 record, showing respectable improvement on all fronts and looking like a club that’s set up well for the future. But most of that development went unnoticed, at least on a national level, due to the off-the-field trials of veteran running back Adrian Peterson, who was active for only one game following a child abuse incident. AP’s future in Minnesota will be a key offeseason storyline that we’ll delve into below, but the Vikings’ quietly successful 2014 deserves a quick rehashing.Adrian Peterson

No. 32 overall pick Teddy Bridgewater was unquestionably a bright spot last season — after a disappointing pre-draft process caused him to fall in the draft, the former Louisville Cardinal started 12 games (winning six), completing 64.4% of his passes for 2,919 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, performing much better than fellow first-round QBs Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel. First-year running back Jerick McKinnon was also impressive, rushing for more than 500 yards in six starts, and catching 27 passes out of the backfield. Under new coordinator Norv Turner, Minnesota’s offense finished 22nd in DVOA, but placed 16th in weighted DVOA, meaning the unit got better as the season progressed.

The Vikings’ defense was a little less impressive (finishing 23rd in wDVOA), but under Zimmer and new coordinator George Edwards, the pieces are in place. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes, defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd, and safety Harrison Smith all blossomed in ’14, while defensive end Everson Griffen showed continued success. Perhaps most impressive, rookie edge defender Anthony Barr had an excellent showing in Minnesota’s 4-3 defense, despite pre-draft concerns about scheme fit.

Adrian Peterson

The most pressing question facing the Vikings is the future of Peterson, the team’s most high-profile player and one of the more talented running backs in the league. While facing child abuse allegations, Peterson was originally deactivated and then placed on the commissioner’s list, ultimately missing 15 games. He’s currently suspended through at least April 15, though he is fighting that ban.

The Vikings, Zimmer, and GM Rick Spielman have been clear that they want Peterson back, so it appears that management is willing to deal with any sort of public relations backlash that comes with allowing Peterson to return. So the more important issue, then, becomes Peterson’s contract, which is no longer tenable. The 2012 NFL MVP will be 30 years old when the season begins, and his deal calls for him to count $15.4MM against Minnesota’s cap. His $14.38MM average annual value is more than $5MM greater than the second-highest paid running back (LeSean McCoy).

Releasing Peterson would leave the Vikings with just $2.4MM in dead money, clearing $13MM in the process. The Vikings could conceivably ask Peterson to take a pay cut, but Peterson holds all the leverage. He’s said he’s “uneasy” about returning to Minnesota, so if he prefers to find a fresh start with a different team, he could simply decline to accept a pay reduction, forcing the Vikings’ hand. At that point, Spielman & Co. would be either be forced to a) keep Peterson at his current salary b) release him, making him a free agent (which might be what he wants) or c) trade him.

The final option is perhaps the most interesting, as it’s unclear what kind of compensation the Vikings could expect to receive for Peterson. He’s unquestionably talented, but he is aging and he just spent an entire year off the football field. Any acquiring team would probably want to restructure Peterson’s contract, as well. The Cowboys have been linked to Peterson in the event that they don’t re-sign DeMarco Murray, but more teams could enter the fray.

Key Free Agents

The Vikings don’t have many impact players heading for unrestricted free agency — instead, most of the club’s pending FAs are role players who saw limited snaps in 2014. One such player is linebacker Jasper Brinkley, a 29-year-old who saw 471 snaps in 2014. He graded out well per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required), especially against the run, where he posted a +7.9 mark. Brinkley is something of a one-dimensional player, however, with rush defense being the one area in which he excels. As Matt Vensel of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune wrote on Thursday, Zimmer has indicated the team would like to find a three-down middle linebacker. It’s just my speculation, but Audie Cole could fill that role in 2015 if Vikings don’t upgrade through the draft. Either way, Brinkley probably won’t be retained.

A pair of offensive lineman — Joe Berger and Vlad Ducasse — are also eligible for free agency next month. Both saw playing time at guard during various points in the season while filling in for Charlie Johnson and Brandon Fusco, with Berger seeing more snaps than Ducasse (626 to 417). Berger was the better player per PFF, posting a +3.3 grade to Ducasse’s -14.1 mark. Fusco will presumably be back at right guard in 2015, but Berger could conceivably be re-signed to compete for playing time at left guard with Charlie Johnson, who struggled last season. Ducasse, on the other hand, shouldn’t be brought back, and the former second-round pick’s time in the NFL might be coming to an end.

In Tom Johnson and Corey Wootton, the Vikings also have a defensive line duo up for free agency. In his first season in Minnesota, the 30-year-old Johnson had a nice season, registering a +5.2 PFF grade on 444 snaps while playing behind Floyd and Linval Joseph. He’s still young enough that he could find a starting position somewhere else, but given that Zimmer likes a rotation along the defensive line, the Vikes could look to re-sign Johnson to maintain their depth at the position. Wootton, 27, struggled last year and it probably makes sense for the Vikings to move on.

Fullback Jerome Felton is also a free agent after opting out of his contract earlier this year. He’s an excellent player, but one of the primary reasons he opted out of his deal was a reduction of playing time in Turner’s offense, so he’ll presumably look for greener pastures.

Potential Cap Casualties

Peterson isn’t the only player who might not return to Minnesota if a contract restructure can’t be agreed upon. Longtime Vikings linebacker Chad Greenway, the club’s first-round selection in 2006, is now 32 years old. He missed four games with injuries, and when he did play, he wasn’t effective, grading as the league’s third-worst 4-3 outside linebacker per PFF. Set to count $8.8MM against the cap in 2015, Greenway will probably have to accept a pay cut to remain on the roster, something he’s indicated he’s willing to do (he took at $1MM pay reduction before last season).

Elsewhere on the defense, end Brian Robison is also a candidate for release. Playing opposite Griffen, the 31-year-old Robison accrued 4.5 sacks while starting all 16 games, but rated as the just the No. 52 4-3 DE among 59 qualifiers per PFF. He’s scheduled to count $5.65MM against the cap next year, and given that the Vikings could save $2.65MM by releasing him, perhaps the club will decide to turn the position over to a younger player.

On offense, veteran receiver Greg Jennings could be on the chopping block, or at the very least, be asked to take a pay cut. The 31-year-old has largely been a disappointment since joining the Vikings, averaging just 64 receptions for 773 yards over the past two seasons. Jennings’ 2015 cap figure is the second-highest on the team, behind only Peterson, as he’s due an $8.9MM base salary and will count $11MM against the cap. Minnesota could create $5MM of cap space by cutting him.

Matt Cassel, who entered 2014 as the starting quarterback before succumbing to injuries, will count $4.75MM next season if he’s not released. It’s not an absurd number for a backup quarterback, but I’d guess the Vikings can find a better way to spend that money. Johnson could also be released, especially if the Vikes re-sign Berger and decide he can start at left guard.

Positions Of Need

For a team that finished 7-9, the Viking don’t have a lot of need areas. One position group that could be improved is offensive line, but because the main culprit, left tackle Matt Kalil, is a former top-three draft pick and will remain a starter for at least one more season, there isn’t much the Vikings can do. Left guard could use an infusion of talent, as Johnson is a below-average player. Minnesota could take a look at Clint Boling, whom Zimmer knows from their time in Cincinnati, or Orlando Franklin, who would cost quite a bit more. If the Lions let Rob Sims, a solid player, get away, the Vikes could make a play for him, as well.

Linebacker could be another area that could be attacked in free agency. I don’t think Greenway will be back, and even if he is, his role could be greatly reduced, so Minnesota could look to upgrade at outside linebacker. Fortunately, 4-3 OLBs aren’t too costly, so the Vikings shouldn’t have to expend too much of their $18.07MM worth of cap space. Malcolm Smith could be looking for a bigger role after acting as the fourth linebacker for the Seahawks, and if he doesn’t follow Dan Quinn to Atlanta, he could be a fit for Minnesota. Sean Weatherspoon is injury-prone and missed the entire 2014 season, but he could be a nice rebound candidate.

If the Vikings see Captain Munnerlyn as primarily a slot corner, the club could look to add another CB to pair with Rhodes, as Ben Goessling of ESPN.com suggested last month. Terence Newman thrived under Zimmer in Cincinnati, but the former is now 37 years old and can’t be counted on as a reliable starter. If the Vikings are willing to pay the price, someone like Brandon Flowers could be a nice addition — he’d give Minnesota one of the best corner groups in the league. But more likely, the Vikes will set their sights lower and target the Buster Skrines of the world.

Finally, the Vikings could opt to add talent at wide receiver, where Jennings is a release candidate and Cordarrelle Patterson continues to be disappointing. Charles Johnson looks the club’s No. 1 pass-catcher, so it wouldn’t be out of the question for Minnesota to bring in another WR. I could see them trying to buy low on someone like Michael Crabtree, or perhaps bring in someone like Leonard Hankerson, who might be able to thrive in a larger role.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

Besides Peterson, Kalil might be the biggest question mark on the Vikings’ roster. The third overall pick in 2012, Kalil was great during his rookie season, grading as PFF’s No. 21 tackle among 81 qualifiers. But he fell to No. 51 in ’13, and dropped all the way to No. 81 last season. Minnesota must decide on Kalil’s fifth-year option in the coming months, and I don’t see how they can exercise it given Kalil’s current level of play.

On the other hand, Harrison Smith, the team’s other 2012 first-round pick, will definitely see his fifth-year option picked up, as he’s among the league’s best at his position. He’s also in line for a contract extension. Smith just turned 26, and he could be looking at a deal similar to that of Eric Weddle, with near $20MM guaranteed.

Overall Outlook

The Vikings are a team on the upswing, and even if Peterson doesn’t return, continued progression by Bridgewater and the defense could push the club above .500. If Peterson does come back to the Twin Cities, and performs at something close to his prior level, the playoffs aren’t out of the question. Of course, the Vikes play in a tough division, as both the Packers and the Lions both earned postseason berths in 2014. But with what looks like a franchise QB in place, the Vikings are surely a team to watch.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Tennessee Titans

February 20th, 2015 at 8:40pm CST by Zachary Links

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Jason McCourty, CB: $8,600,000
  2. Andy Levitre, G: $8,600,000
  3. Michael Griffin, S: $8,100,000
  4. Jurrell Casey, DL: $6,720,000
  5. Delanie Walker, TE: $5,275,000
  6. Sammie Lee Hill, DT: $4,660,418
  7. Craig Stevens, TE: $4,500,000
  8. Kamerion Wimbley, DE: $4,493,750
  9. Shonn Greene, RB: $4,183,334
  10. Bernard Pollard, S: $3,625,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • Hired 2014 Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau as assistant head coach.

Draft:

  • No. 2 overall pick
  • Acquired sixth-round pick from Patriots in deal for Akeem Ayers.
  • Acquired seventh-round pick from Cowboys in deal for Lavar Edwards.
  • Owe seventh-round pick to Patriots for Akeem Ayers.

Other:

Overview

No one expected much out of the Titans in 2014, but their 2-14 mark was a disappointment to fans who were hoping to see something out of this team. In the preseason, newly-hired head coach Ken Whisenhunt set the bar fairly high when he said that he wouldn’t need to exercise patience with his squad. In September, he realized that he had overestimated what he had on his roster.

“You know, I guess that’s the problem saying those kind of things,” Whisenhunt said when asked by Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean about his previous expectations. “You go on a stretch where you have a couple games and you don’t play well, and those are the kind of things that, hey, I still believe that, I still believe we have a team that’s good enough, that’s better than what we are playing right now. But we have to look at what we are doing, how we are doing it. We have to look at everything. Maybe.”

Once again, the Titans are not expected to be world-beaters, but they need to show something.

Key Free AgentsDerrick Morgan

Seemingly half of the Titans’ roster is eligible for free agency but only a few can really be considered to be pivotal. Outside linebacker Derrick Morgan is one of them and probably stands as the highest priority. Late last month, our own Luke Adams named Morgan as one of the club’s likeliest candidates for the franchise tag, though he felt that it was unlikely to be used at all. Recently, GM Ruston Webster said that he doesn’t think the tag will be “in play” for anyone. Morgan has been told that the Titans want to retain him, but it remains to be seen how far they’d be willing to go for him. The former No. 16 overall pick has posted just 23.5 sacks in his five seasons as a pro. This past season, however, Morgan ranked as the eighth-best 3-4 outside linebacker according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required and recommended).

Longtime Titans tackle Michael Roos might not be back with the Titans in 2015 and he might not play at all. Roos appeared in just five games in 2014 after being placed on IR. The Titans are the only organization he has known since his debut in 2005, but Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com reported in December that Roos probably wouldn’t return to the club since he has been squeezed out at left tackle in favor of Taylor Lewan. Roos indicated that he was leaning towards retirement before the New Year but there have also been rumblings that he would be okay with a shift to right tackle, where he spent some time in his first two seasons. Any way you slice it, it sounds like the odds are against Roos coming back to Tennessee in 2015.

Speaking of long-tenured members of the Titans, Nate Washington completed the sixth and final year of the deal he signed with the club in 2009. As you may recall, Washington’s tenure with the team almost ended a few months early when the Titans were aggressively shopping their veterans around the trade deadline. Washington stayed put, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him ring in his 32nd birthday (in August) with another club. On the other hand, the Titans have a young core of receivers and whether it’s Zach Mettenberger or someone else, the quarterback position will be filled by a youngster. It might not hurt to have someone with experience there to help guide the offense. The veteran had 40 receptions for 647 receiving yards and two touchdowns in 2014.

Quarterback Jake Locker is among the biggest names on that free agent list, but the Titans are not interested in bringing him back.

Possible Cap Casualties

Michael Griffin has the third-highest cap hit of anyone on the team at $8.1MM. Simply put, the safety is paid like a top performer at his position but he is years removed from that mantle. The advanced metrics, unsurprisingly, tell a similar story. Pro Football Focus gave him an overall grade of -15.7 in 2014, placing him 83rd out of 87 qualified safeties. His play put him in the same category of Kenny Vaccaro, who had a remarkably disappointing year for New Orleans, and Ryan Clark, who has decided to move on from football. If the Titans drop Griffin, they’ll save $4.5MM against the cap. Griffin told reporters in December that if the Titans came to him and said they wanted him back for less money, it would come down to a family decision and what is best for them. That’s a call he might never get to make, however.

Running back Shonn Greene is likely a goner this season as the Titans can save $3.35MM but cutting him loose. Greene carried the ball 94 times in 2014 for 392 yards and two touchdowns and saw his role move all over the map throughout the season. The jury is still out on whether rising sophomore Bishop Sankey can make an impact in the NFL, but the Titans pretty much know what they’ll get out of Greene, and it ain’t worth what they’re slated to pay him.

Safety Bernard Pollard asked for his release from the Titans in late January and he could have that wish granted. Keeping Pollard would mean paying him a $3.1MM base salary but cutting him would only leave the Titans with just $425K in dead money. Pollard played in just five games last season before landing on injured reserve with an Achilles injury, but he was a solid player as recently as 2013, when he racked up 77 tackles while starting all 16 games, and rated as the league’s No. 21 safety among 86 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Guard Andy Levitre could be a candidate for release, but it’s more likely that they’ll try and re-work his deal rather than carry $6MM+ in dead money. Ditto for teammates Jason McCourty and Craig Stevens. The Titans already saved themselves a pretty penny when they cut ties with Michael Oher in February.

Positions Of Need

The Titans’ biggest need of all is probably at the quarterback position. While they “like” Mettenberger, they’re not willing to name him as their starter for 2015 by any means. The free agent quarterback class, as you’ve probably heard once or twice before, leaves a lot to be desired. That’s why at the No. 2 overall pick, the Titans are widely expected to go for either Oregon star Marcus Mariota or FSU standout Jameis Winston, depending on what the Bucs do at No. 1. Webster has been telling the world that they’ll consider other needs at No. 2, but his club is still expected by many to take a QB. If the Titans aren’t high enough on whichever quarterback the Bucs pass on, they might pursue a trade with the Bears for Jay Cutler.

On defense, the Titans need to generate more pressure on the quarterback to make their 3-4 scheme effective. Brian Orakpo, Washington’s highest paid player in 2014, might not get the kind of money he wants in D.C., leading him to the open market. Despite his injury-riddled 2014, Orakpo stands as one of the league’s most terrifying linebackers when healthy. Alternatively, if the Titans stick with the selfie-loving Mettenberger, they could find an edge rusher with the No. 2 pick in Nebraska’s Randy Gregory. Some are concerned about Gregory’s size but a steady regimen of deadlifts and red meat could take care of that.

The Titans could use a worthwhile partner for McCourty and luckily for them, there are plenty of quality options available on the open market. The Titans might not go for top-shelf guys like Byron Maxwell or Darrelle Revis (if available), but the next tier of corners features multiple guys who could be had for cheaper, shorter-term deals. Antonio Cromartie is a veteran who would fit the bill, though he might lean towards a reunion with the Jets or a chance to join a contender instead.

Tennessee could look into adding a solid wide receiver, though it won’t be a higher priority than those listed above. A solid effort from Kendall Wright plus the long-awaited blossoming of Justin Hunter could give the Titans enough firepower to move the chains. Retaining the aforementioned Washington could also be a smart move.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

Wright is entering the fourth and final year of his rookie contract and the Titans could look to lock up the former first-round pick early. They’ll have him at a relative bargain this season with a cap number of $2.6MM and even though his next deal will cost a bit more, the team could get another solid value by addressing it sooner rather than later.

Cutting Levitre remains unlikely, but that doesn’t mean that Webster can’t put on his best poker face and try to talk his camp into a modest pay cut. Levitre’s massive contract, signed in 2013, is scheduled to take him through the 2018 season. With a $6.5MM base for the next three seasons and a $5.8MM base in ’18, the Titans might be able to shave off a million or two for the coming year. The guard graded out as being well below average in 2014 with a -5.8 overall rating, per Pro Football Focus.

The Titans could push McCourty to take a small pay cut also and it’s not likely that he’ll want to give up his cushy deal and jump into an especially strong cornerback market. Stevens has a $4.5MM cap hit and the team should be able to talk him into a more aggressive cut.

Overall Outlook

This is an extremely pivotal offseason in Tennessee. While they’re armed with a boatload of cap room, the biggest decision the Titans make will come on April 30th when it’s time to hand their first selection over to commissioner Roger Goodell.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Bears

February 19th, 2015 at 8:00pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Jay Cutler, QB: $16,500,000
  2. Jared Allen, DE: $12,500,000
  3. Brandon Marshall, WR: $9,575,000
  4. Matt Forte, RB: $9,200,000
  5. Jermon Bushrod, T: $8,050,000
  6. Lamarr Houston, DE: $6,990,000
  7. Martellus Bennett, TE: $6,125,000
  8. Tim Jennings, CB: $5,250,000
  9. Robbie Gould, K: $3,600,000
  10. Matt Slauson, G: $3,267,500

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 7 overall pick
  • Owe fifth-round pick to Broncos in deal for Brock Vereen.

Other:

Overview

After firing head coach Lovie Smith and replacing him with Marc Trestman heading into the 2013 season, the Bears actually regressed record-wise, falling from 10 wins in 2012 to eight in 2013. But win-loss record aside, things were looking up in Chicago, as Trestman seemingly molded an offense that played to the strengths of quarterback JayJay Cutler Cutler and his primary receivers, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. The Bears finished second in scoring and eighth in yards, good for a No. 6 rating in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.

But with a postseason berth looming as realistic goal for the 2014 season, the offense cratered amid reports of discord in the locker room, as Cutler threw a league-leading 18 interceptions and was thrown under the bus by offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer. The entire unit struggled, falling to 23rd in scoring, 21st in yards, and 14th in DVOA. The defense, which general manager Phil Emery augmented with free agent additions like Lamarr Houston and Jared Allen, was also lackluster, finishing 31st in points allowed and 30th in yards allowed (but surprisingly 14th in DVOA). Entering the year with high expectations, Chicago ultimately limped to a 5-11 record, good for last in the NFC South.

Coaching/Front Office Changes

From the outset, Trestman was an unconventional hire — he’d been out the NFL for nearly a decade when he was given the Bears HC job, and had been coaching in the CFL for the prior five seasons. Insiders worried at the time of the hire that Trestman might lack the skills required to command an NFL locker room, and while confirmation bias could definitely be at playe here, it’s fair to wonder if Trestman’s personality played a role in the team’s downfall. Issues such as these are tough to judge from an outsider’s perspective, and regardless, it’s safe to say Chicago’s on-the-field performance was sufficiently poor enough to warrant Trestman’s dismissal.

It’s a little easier to judge the performance of Emery, as many of the moves he made to supplement a decent Bears core simply didn’t work out, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Signed to a five-year, $35MM contract, Houston was mostly ineffective before tearing his ACL in October after celebrating a sack while Chicago was losing by 25 points. Allen, meanwhile, was handed $32MM over four years, and while he was more of a contributor than Houston, $32MM (including $15.5MM guaranteed) is a lot of money for a player who turns 33 in April. But the move that probably sealed Emery’s fate was the seven-year extension handed to Cutler, which we’ll delve into below.

Following the firing of Trestman and Emery in late December, the Bears settled on former Saints executive Ryan Pace as their new GM after a search that saw Chicago meet with Chris Ballard of the Chiefs, Brian Gaine of the Dolphins, and Lake Dawson of the Titans. At 37, Pace becomes the youngest general manager in the league. It’s fair to wonder if Pace will employ the same sort of contract structures in Chicago that often led the Saints to having little or no cap space, but given that Pace’s title was player personnel director, he probably doesn’t deserve blame for New Orleans’ cap woes.

Aside from the Broncos, the Bears interviewed the fewest candidates of any club searching for a new head coach. Chicago was one of only two teams who were replacing its general manager in addition to its HC, so it’s possible they wanted to have Pace in place before getting too deep into its coaching hunt. But it’s also conceivable the Bears simply got lucky, as just four days after Denver parted ways with John Fox, Chicago scooped him up, signing the 60-year-old to a four-year contract. Fox, entering his 14th season as an NFL head coach, will bring Adam Gase with him from Denver to head up the offense, while adding former 49ers DC Vic Fangio to lead the defense (and shift to a 3-4 scheme).

Quarterback Situation

“What do we do about Jay?” is the key question surely on the mind of Pace, Fox, and every fan in the Windy City. After Cutler was benched for the penultimate game of the 2014 season, many figured his tenure in Chicago was all but over; he eventually started the season finale after backup Jimmy Clausen suffered a concussion, but after a season in which the 31-year-old Cutler rated as the league’s No. 32 QB per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), it was assumed that the club was ready to move on.

But it’s possible (and even likely) that Cutler’s seven-year, $126.7MM extension that runs through 2020 won’t allow the Bears to throw in the towel just yet. Cutler’s deal contains a fully guaranteed $38MM, which includes his 2015 salary of $15.5MM. That figure, along with the prorated portions of his signing bonus, would leave Chicago with $19.5MM in dead money if it chose to release its quarterback — keeping Cutler on the roster, however, would cost just $16.5MM. Designating Cutler as a post-June 1 cut would leave his 2015 cap hit at $16.5MM, so the Bears would again realize no cap relief.

Realistically, Chicago can’t release Cutler this year, as the cap hit would simply be too high for a player not on the roster. The only alternative, then, would be to trade Cutler, which would reduce his 2015 dead money to just $4MM, saving the Bears $12.5MM in ’15 cap space. Cutler would presumably be in high demand given the paucity of available QBs, as the Buccaneers, Browns, Titans, Bills, and Jets are among the clubs that could have interest (and the cap space required) to acquire the veteran signal-caller.

The central argument against trading Cutler is simply the scarcity of competent starting quarterbacks. The free agent QB market doesn’t offer many inspiring options, as the likes of Mark Sanchez, Brian Hoyer, and Josh McCown (who the Bears met with yesterday) aren’t improvements over Cutler. Similarly, the draft lacks quarterback depth, and as holders of the seventh overall pick, the Bears probably won’t get a shot at Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota without trading up. So without a viable alternative, Chicago’s best course of action might be to ride out 2015 with Cutler, hope for the best, and re-evaluate the situation next offseason.

While Cutler’s future is mostly conjecture for now, neither Pace nor Fox sound too enthused about committing to Cutler for the foreseeable future. Speaking at the combine yesterday, Pace refused to call Cutler the Bears’ starting QB, and said the club would take its time with its evaluations. Fox, meanwhile, was also non-committal, telling reporters, “We’re not up against a deadline…We’ll keep you posted.” The head coach later added: “I don’t think there’s any question there’s ability and talent there but there’s a lot more that goes into it.”

Key Free Agents

While Cutler figures to be the main offseason storyline in Chicago, the Bears do have several players who will hit the open market next month unless new contracts are worked out. From a sentimental standpoint, the most important pending free agents are longtime Bears Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman. Briggs, 34, played in only eight games last season but was the Bears’ third-best defender per PFF, while Tillman, who turns 34 on Monday, appeared in just two games before injuring his triceps. Neither should be priorities as Chicago looks to remake its defense, and I wouldn’t expect either to return in 2015, although Briggs would make more sense, if only on a one-year deal.

The Bears’ most important FA will be defensive tackle Stephen Paea, who if re-signed, would probably need to shift to defensive end in Fangio’s 3-4 look — at 6’1″ and 300 pounds, he has the size to do so. The 26-year-old graded as the No. 11 DT in the league according to PFF, although his sub-par run grade is a bit concerning, given that 3-4 ends’ primary responsibility is to defend the run. The interior defensive line market is flush with options, so Paea could face some competition, but he could command a salary of around $5MM. At that price, Chicago might instead opt to consider players who have more experience in the 3-4.

Safety Chris Conte, who like Tillman has a birthday on Monday (but is eight years younger) is also a free agent. He offers youth (he’s entering his age-26 season) and experience (more than 600 snaps in each of his first three seasons), but he’s dealt with shoulder injuries throughout his career and has produced at merely an average level. In 2014, Conte graded as the No. 63 safety among 87 qualifiers per PFF. He’d been better than that in the two seasons prior, but he’s always been in the middle of the pack relative to his peers. He could make sense as a reserve (especially given the weak safety market), but the Bears should look to upgrade.

Only four more Bears free agents saw more than 200 snaps in 2014. Linebacker D.J. Williams, receiver Josh Morgan, and tight end Dante Rosario were all ineffective last year, and Chicago will probably move on from that trio. But offensive lineman Brian De La Puente had a very successful season in ’14 during which he saw 501 snaps, mostly while filling in at center for Roberto Garza during the early portion of the year. De La Puente is only 28 years old and had to surprisingly accept a one-year deal for the minimum salary benefit last offseason. The Bears extended Garza through 2015, so it’s possible that De La Puente will look for a starting job elsewhere. Otherwise, he’d offer valuable depth along Chicago’s offensive line.

Possible Cap Casualties

With more than $26MM of cap space to work with, the Bears don’t have to make any drastic moves to create more financial flexibility. Chicago’s only pressing issue will be deciding the fate of receiver Brandon Marshall, who is due a 2015 base salary of $7.5MM and scheduled to count $9.575MM against the cap. Releasing him now would give the Bears $3.95MM worth of cap space, while designating him as a post-June 1 cut would create $7.7MM in savings. The 30-year-old Marshall was among the NFL’s best receivers as recently as 2013, but last season saw him catch just 61 passes for 721 yards, and he missed the final three games with broken ribs.

Marshall’s 2015 salary becomes guaranteed on the third day of the 2015 league year, so the Bears need to make a decision on his future before then. The club could conceivably ask him to take a pay cut, but I’d guess that Marshall would prefer to hit the open market rather than accept a salary decrease. If Chicago doesn’t want to retain Marshall, it could opt to explore a trade, which would create the same amount of cap space as a release.

The only other conceivable cut would be guard Matt Slauson, who played well in 2013, but struggled in 2014 before tearing his pectoral in October. He’ll only count about $3.3MM in 2015, however, so I’m guessing the Bears will retain him and hope for a bounce-back season.

Positions Of Need

Nearly every position on the Bears’ defense could use a talent infusion, and given that Fangio will install a new scheme, adding new players is doubly important. The defensive line will need to be revamped, and even if Paea is re-signed, Chicago will need to find nose tackle to anchor the middle of the line. Fox knows Terrance Knighton from their days in Denver, but as the top NT available, Pot Roast will garner a hefty sum. Cheaper options include Dan Williams and B.J. Raji, each of whom is on the right side of 30 and has experience in the 3-4. Raji, in particular, will probably command only a modest salary on a one-year deal after missing the entire 2014 season.

Linebacker could also afford an upgrade, starting with the inside. If the Bears are looking for an early-down run stuffer, there are several options available, including Rey Maualuga, Brandon Spikes, and again playing to the Fox/Broncos connection, Nate Irving. David Harris is also a free agent, but most expect him to stay with the Jets or follow Rex Ryan to the Bills. The edge rushing market is more robust, as while top FA Justin Houston is unlikely to hit free agency, players like Jerry Hughes, Brian Orakpo, and Pernell McPhee are. Someone like Orakpo or Jabaal Sheard could be an interesting add on a short-term deal, as could Akeem Ayers if he doesn’t re-up with the Patriots. Additionally, if the 49ers cut any of Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, or Ahmad Brooks, I’d expect Fangio to push for the Bears to sign them.

Pickings are slim at safety, but the Bears desperately need someone to play alongside Ryan Mundy. Like most of the league, Chicago would love to bring in Devin McCourty, but he’s expected to see the franchise tag in New England. Former Bronco Rahim Moore would make sense, while veteran Antrel Rolle would be a stabilizing presence in the back end. Da’Norris Searcy is said to be looking for larger role than the Bills have given him, and he’d be a smart sign for the Bears, as would Mike Adams or Dawan Landry, each of whom rated among PFF’s top-10 safeties. If the Buccaneers are still trying to trade Dashon Goldson, he could be an option for Chicago given his history with Fangio.

At corner, the Bears are set with Kyle Fuller at one spot and veteran Tim Jennings in the slot, but they could use one more pass defender to play opposite Fuller. Adding veteran Tramon Williams on a short-term pact could be worthwhile, while fellow Packer Davon House could offer some untapped upside and youth (he’s entering his age-25 season). Both Perrish Cox and Chris Culliver have familiarity with Fangio’s scheme, and given the relative lack of draftable corner options, I’d expect the Bears to add at least one CB in free agency.

Needs on the offense aren’t as numerous, but small upgrades could be made here and there. Right tackle Jordan Mills struggled in 2014, but given that he’ll be entering only his third season in the NFL, I’d wager the Bears will give him another opportunity at starting. But depth along the line could be augmented, as rookie Michael Ola was unspectacular in filling in at numerous positions. Reserve options could be added at quarterback, running back, and receiver, but I’d expect the Bears to target these positions in the draft, where the OL and WR positions in particular are said to be deep.

Extension Candidate/Contract Decisions

As a 2012 draft pick, Jeffery is now eligible for an extension; because he wasn’t drafted in the first round, however, Jeffery isn’t attached to a fifth-year option, so his contract ends after 2015. The Bears could use the franchise tag on him, but a long-term deal could be best for both sides, especially if the club moves on from Marshall. Having average 87 receptions, 1,277 yards, and eight touchdowns over the past two years, the 25-year-old Jeffery should be in for a large raise. Any extensions inked by Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant in the coming months should set a ceiling for Jeffery, but he could probably command close to $12MM annually.

Running back Matt Forte is also entering the final year of his contract which has paid him an AAV of $7.6MM. Forte has been both productive and remarkably consistent during his NFL career, and is among the best pass-catching backs in the league. But he’ll be 30 years old entering next offseason, and there could be some concern about the tread on his tires. Still, given that he’s scheduled to count $8.2MM against the cap in ’15, the Bears could offer him a short-term extension in the hopes of creating some immediate financial wiggle room.

The Bears do have a fifth-year option on Shea McClellin, but there’s almost no chance it gets exercised. McClellin has struggled to find a position on defense in his three years in the league, and hasn’t been effective in any role.

Overall Outlook

The Bears have a lot of work to do this offseason, and with a new GM, head coach, and coordinators in place, this club could look a lot different (particularly on defense) come the regular season. But until the club definitively decides what to do with Cutler, little else will make headlines in Chicago. If they do trade Cutler, the Bears could be looking at a full-scale rebuild until they find a new starting quarterback. If they keep Cutler around, they’ll need to add several pieces to their defense and hope that an infusion of talent will lead to better results. Either way, it could be a tough road to relevancy in an NFC North that features two playoff teams in the Packers and Lions, as well as the Vikings, who look to be on the rise themselves.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: New Orleans Saints

February 19th, 2015 at 8:55am CST by Zachary Links

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Drew Brees, QB: $26,400,000
  2. Junior Galette, DE: $15,450,000
  3. Jimmy Graham, TE: $11,000,000
  4. Jahri Evans, G: $11,000,000
  5. Jairus Byrd, S: $10,300,000
  6. Marques Colston, WR: $9,700,000
  7. Ben Grubbs, G: $9,600,000
  8. Curtis Lofton, LB: $9,250,000
  9. Cameron Jordan, DE: $6,969,000
  10. Brodrick Bunkley, DT: $6,112,500

Notable coaching changes:

  • Hired 2014 Raiders head coach Dennis Allen as senior defensive assistant.

Draft:

  • No. 13 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

The PFR staff didn’t agree on much when we submitted our predictions for the 2014 season. However, we were all on the same page when it came to the Saints. Every writer – including yours truly – predicted that New Orleans would win the NFC South. More than one writer saw the Saints playing in February and, why not? On paper, there was no reason to think that they couldn’t be one of the league’s elite once again. Of course, when the Saints finished with a 7-9 mark, we all wound up with a red X, though that record was nearly good enough to take the crown in what proved to be an awful year for the division.

In short, the Saints have some work to do this offseason to get back on top, but not a whole lot of cap room to work with.

Positions Of Need

The Saints’ top need is probably at the cornerback position and they’re widely expected to address that in free agency rather than in the draft. When the Saints’ duo of Keenan Lewis and Jabari Greer patrolled the field in 2013, New Orleans had themselves a solid pairing that gave the team above-average production, as the metrics at Pro Football Focus (subscription required) show. However, Greer suffered a devastating career-ending injury midway through the season and that unit really hasn’t been the same since. This offseason, the Saints are probably looking for something more substantial than a band-aid fix.

Luckily, there should be no shortage of quality options on the open market. At the top of the list, the Saints could find guys like Byron Maxwell, Kareem Jackson, and Brandon Flowers. Veteran Antonio Cromartie will also be there, though teams might be wary of his age and a possible regression towards the kind of play he exhibited during the end of his tenure with the Jets. If the Saints do look to the draft for a CB, guys like Michigan State cornerback Trae Waynes, Washington corner Marcus Peters, or LSU’s Jalen Collins could be options, though all have their own drawbacks, including Peters’ off-the-field incidents. Recently, Saints defensive back Corey White, who was seeing time at safety to close out the 2014 season, made it known that he’ll be moving back to cornerback. However, I would expect that he’ll be no higher than the No. 3 option on the depth chart.

The Saints will also look to make upgrades at both outside linebacker and probably inside linebacker. PFF rated Curtis Lofton as one of the very worst starting linebackers in the NFL last season and, frankly, you probably didn’t need advanced metrics to tell you that. And, on the outside, the Saints need a worthy partner for Junior Galette, who might not even be on the field to start the season thanks to his January incident. With a desperate need for an athletic edge rusher, the OLB need will probably take priority even over the inside. Florida’s Dante Fowler Jr. has been widely connected to the Saints at No. 13 and he could be a fit as both a defensive end and outside linebacker. Clemson’s Vic Beasley is another intriguing possibility and one that could potentially fit at both positions, even if some believe he projects more as a defensive end. Meanwhile, reserve Parys Haralson will be back in the fold for the Saints after agreeing to a one-year deal.

Khiry Robinson is promising but the Saints will be in the market for a tailback if Mark Ingram goes elsewhere. New Orleans could also shop for a center if they don’t feel that Tim Lelito is ready for primetime.Mark Ingram (Featured)

Key Free Agents

The Saints are still interested in reaching a deal with Ingram, but GM Mickey Loomis stressed on Wednesday that their ability to keep him will be “intertwined” with the team’s salary cap situation and Ingram’s market value. “In free agency, everyone wants to see what the market is,” Loomis said. “The question is, can that get done prior to March 10? Can both sides get a good feel for that beforehand and do a deal, or do we need to wait and see where all the offers are and respond accordingly?” With limited cap room and multiple teams that could be in the market for a running back, his return is anything but certain. Meanwhile, fellow tailback Travaris Cadet is headed towards restricted free agency.

While the Saints secondary as a whole was disappointing in 2014, especially with the injuries suffered by Jairus Byrd and Kenny Vaccaro, Jamarca Sanford was something of a bright spot when he joined the team later in the season. We’re not expecting an overhaul at either strong safety or free safety, but the team probably wants Sanford back as a safety net in case of another letdown.

After taking care of Haralson and kicker Shayne Graham, the Saints don’t have a whole lot of other high-priority free agents. The aforementioned Goodwin will be eligible for free agency, but they’ll probably part ways after a season in which the veteran ranked No. 27 out of 41 qualified centers, per PFF.

Possible Cap Casualties

Marques Colston has been a mainstay on the Saints roster for years, but he has regressed sharply and he has the salary of a top-20 receiver. Releasing Colston would give the Saints $4.3MM in cap room, but it might make more sense to keep him, possibly with a reworked contract. The Saints love to spread the ball around to different receivers from week to week, but Colston is the one who sees more looks that any of them on the whole.

After an atrocious 2014, Lofton’s time in New Orleans could be through, though there isn’t an in-house answer to replace him. Guard Jahri Evans has an $11MM cap charge for 2015 and the Saints could save $6MM by dropping him. However, it’s worth noting that Evans played the second half of the season with a partially torn triangular fibrocartilage complex in his wrist, so the team might have higher hopes for him once he’s healthy. Cutting nose tackle Brodrick Bunkley, who finished the year on IR, would save the team nearly $2.9MM. Tailback Pierre Thomas could also go, but I think his future will depend largely on what happens with Ingram and Cadet this offseason.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

With their backs against the wall, the Saints can be expected to try and restructure deals with multiple players. Currently hamstrung with being more than $23MM over the cap, the Saints can play around with the contracts of Jimmy Graham, Byrd, Galette, and Lofton to take care of that overage.

Drew Brees has a cap charge of $26.4MM in 2015 and $27.4MM in 2016, but converting salary to a bonus next season would only cripple the club’s cap in future seasons. Some have suggested that Brees could (or should) effectively take a pay cut like Tom Brady did with the Patriots, but Brees has been outspoken on players’ rights and the Saints would probably be barking up the tree if they went that route.

An extension for Brees, tacking a couple extra years onto a contract that currently runs through the 2016 season, could be a win-win for the player and the team, reducing his short-term cap hit while ensuring that he has the sort of deal that would allow him to finish his career in New Orleans. Extending Cameron Jordan may also allow the club to clear some 2015 cap room, as he’s currently on the books for nearly $7MM. Jordan recorded just 7.5 sacks last year after racking up 12.5 in 2013, and his pass-rushing production dropped off across the board, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). But he’s still capable of getting to the quarterback and more than held his own against the run — it’d be a little surprising if the Saints don’t want to keep him around beyond 2015.

Overall Outlook

The Saints don’t have a ton of breathing room this offseason and they’re not going to make a giant splash in free agency like they did last year with Byrd. Still, they’ll be able to improve with their top-half draft picks and if they make a few sacrifices, they can carve out enough space to get the cornerback they need. New Orleans could expand its cap room even further by effectively living for today and borrowing against their future, but that wouldn’t be the wise long-term play for this team.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Texans

February 18th, 2015 at 7:49pm CST by Rob DiRe

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. J.J. Watt, DL: $21,969,000
  2. Andre Johnson, WR: $16,144,583
  3. Johnathan Joseph, CB: $12,250,000
  4. Duane Brown, T: $9,500,000
  5. Arian Foster, RB: $8,906,250
  6. Chris Myers, C: $8,000,000
  7. Brian Cushing, LB: $7,891,250
  8. Jadeveon Clowney, OLB: $5,062,045
  9. Garrett Graham, TE: $3,921,875
  10. Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB: $3,875,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 16 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

After inheriting a 2-14 team, Bill O’Brien took over the Texans and brought them right back to respectability in just one season. Most of the attention went to J.J. Watt, and deservedly so, after an astounding season that saw him receive 13 MVP votes, the most for a defensive player since Lawrence Taylor in 1986.

However, Watt didn’t lead the team to nine wins – and one Week 17 Ravens’ loss to the Connor Shaw-led Browns from a playoff spot – all by himself. Defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel patched together a strong defensive season without much notable star-power on that side of the ball. The team finished seventh in scoring defense, according to ESPN, and also graded out as a top-10 defense according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Just a year ago, the unit were 24th in scoring defense and 16th per PFF. The big addition this offseason was first overall pick Jadeveon Clowney, who played in only four games and accumulated five tackles.

The offense is what really held the team back, specifically the quarterback position. The Texans had to turn Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett, Tom Savage, and Case Keenum at different points during the year, which proved inconsistent at best. If the team can get an equal or better effort from the defense in 2015, consistent offense should be enough to put Houston back in the playoffs.Ryan Mallett

Key Free Agents

With the quarterback position in flux, Mallett turns into one of the more intriguing free agents on the market for the Texans. Most teams will view Mallett as an afterthought at worst, and a question mark at best, but the Texans coaching staff has a full season of practice reps to judge him on. An unfortunate injury robbed the team of more game film, but no other suitor will be more familiar with what he has to offer. O’Brien knows him particularly well, going back to his time coaching him in New England. It is difficult to project the Texans’ interest in Mallett, but what they do with him will be telling. If they don’t make a concerted effort to sign him, even to a small backup-level deal, he might have trouble finding work anywhere in the league.

Kendrick Lewis played a huge role in a surprisingly good defense in 2014, playing 1097 snaps, most on the defense. I imagine if the Texans thought they had a better option, they would have used him. While Lewis graded out positively in 2014 (subscription), he was far from a revelation. The market for his services should be diminished enough for the Texans to bring him back at a reasonable rate, but in a weak free agent class for safeties, a 26-year old talent who has proven to be durable could wind up being overpaid. Danieal Manning played about half the snaps that Lewis did, but graded out slightly better over that sample. He could stay or go on a small contract, depending on how the rest of free agency and the draft go.

Staying in the secondary, Kareem Jackson was the team’s best cornerback in 2014, surpassing Johnathan Joseph as the number one guy in the secondary. His breakout season came at the wrong time for the team, as he will be sought after heavily in what could be a weak cornerback class in both the draft and free agency. It would be difficult to justify signing Jackson to a big extension with Joseph still on the books.

Offensive tackle Derek Newton and outside linebacker Brooks Reed are both players with good track records in Houston that the team would like to have back in the fold. Both would draw interest on the open market, but the Texans would likely have an edge in bringing them back.

Akeem Dent, Jerrell Powe, and Ryan Pickett could all be back next season due to scheme familiarity, depending on what the team accomplishes in free agency and the draft.

Possible Cap Casualties

Andre Johnson is the best player in Texans history, and it isn’t even close. Drafted in the first round of Houston’s second draft, he has spent his whole career with the franchise. During that time, he put together a pretty good Hall of Fame case, currently placing himself ninth all time in receptions and 12th in receiving yards.

However, Johnson slipped dramatically in 2014, failing to reach the 1,000-yard mark for the first time since his rookie year, in a season that he was healthy and played at least 14 games. He also posted his fewest receptions in a healthy season since his second year in the league. Johnson has struggled with injuries throughout his career, missing large portions of the 2007 and 2011 seasons, as well as missing three games in 2005. The scariest part of the 2014 campaign is the tremendous dip in his yards per catch over the last two seasons. From 2007 to 2012 he averaged between 13.7 and 15.5 yards per catch, but in the last two years, he has averaged 12.9 (2013) and just 11.0 (2014). That last number tied him for 83rd in the league among qualified players.

A drop in yards per catch often signifies a loss of explosiveness, and could pose trouble for the star receiver going forward. If these two numbers prove to be anomalies, like his low averages in 2005 and 2006, that’s fine, but if they become a trend it will be hard to justify his large cap number. Set to make $21.5MM in base salary over the next two years, with cap numbers totaling over $30MM, Johson is one of the highest paid receivers in the league, according to OverTheCap.com. The team could save nearly $21MM by cutting the veteran wideout, although asking him to take a pay cut could be a more ideal option for the team.

An extension for Johnson could be another option, but the emergence of DeAndre Hopkins as the team’s number one option cuts Johnson’s leverage in contract talks.

Johnathan Joseph hasn’t been with the team nearly as long, but he was a huge part of an excellent Texans’ defense that made back-to-back playoff appearances in the 2011 and 2012 NFL seasons. Joseph signed a five-year contract as the top corner available during the 2011 offseason, and with rookie J.J. Watt, was part of a massive defensive improvement on way to the first playoff appearance and the first playoff victory in Texans’ franchise history. Joseph made the Pro Bowl during each of his first two seasons. The Texans would be in a tough spot if they lost both Jackson and Joseph, but if they can manage to bring back Jackson, they could save $8.5MM by releasing Joseph. Brian Cushing is in a similar situation as Joseph, having dealt with injuries and a decline in performance, but his guaranteed base salary would make it difficult to justify cutting him.

Texans center Chris Myers has been among the better players at his position over the last five years, and the Texans have had effective running games during the best stretch in franchise history largely because of the efforts of Myers and offensive tackle Duane Brown. Myers, like Joseph, made the Pro Bowl in 2011 and 2012. However, if the team feels comfortable it can withstand the drop in production that could come with going to a younger player, the $6MM the team would save could go a long way towards re-signing other players this offseason.

Two more interesting possibilities are Arian Foster and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Foster continues to be highly productive and effective as both a runner and receiver, but with the devaluation of running backs, a back with such a high cap number and Foster’s injury history should be on alert. Cap savings this year would be less than $4MM, unless he is designated a post-June 1st cut, but more likely it will be interesting to see what the Texans do with him next offseason as he enters the final year of his contract. For Fitzpatrick, it depends on what the Texans do at the quarterback position with the rest of the offseason. Right now, he might still be the best option for the team. However, his $3.25MM salary would make him a very highly-paid backup. If the team can find another option in the draft or free agency, it might make sense to spend that money elsewhere on the roster.

Positions Of Need

As is the case for all teams with question marks at the quarterback position, that QB spot immediately becomes the most pressing need on the team. Using four quarterbacks in a season is never a good thing, especially when the best option of the four is Fitzpatrick — even Fitzpatrick’s 17:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio was buoyed by a six-touchdown, zero-interception game against a Titans team that will be drafting second overall this season. Houston’s current options aren’t great. After Fitzpatrick, the only in-house options are the unproven Mallett and the unrefined Savage. Neither player would inspire confidence.

Of course, the options in free agency aren’t much better. Brian Hoyer and Mark Sanchez are probably the top options on the market, and if that’s the case, the team’s best option may just be to roll with Fitzpatrick again. Texans’ fans may have thought the team had a chance at Teddy Bridgewater with the top pick in the second round last spring, but the Vikings wisely traded back into the end of the first round to select him. Picking 16th this year, the Texans only options at quarterback figure to be Brett Hundley of UCLA and Bryce Petty, unless Marcus Mariota continues to tumble down big boards across the NFL. Hundley and Petty are both flawed prospects and neither represents an immediate improvement at the position. Both might go on to have full and impressive NFL careers, but if the team plans to compete in 2015 it needs a more polished and more dynamic player leading the offense.

Depending on whether or not the team is able to keep Johnson, receiver will be another position of need this offseason. Even if the team moves on from Johnson, the Texans will have trouble targeting a receiver off the top of the market such as Randall Cobb or Jeremy Maclin, but a player like Eddie Royal, Cecil Shorts, or Leonard Hankerson could be brought in on a modest contract as a second or third wide receiver. Tight end might be an even more pressing need, especially if the team decides that Garrett Graham isn’t the long-term answer at the position. The Texans would have trouble going after a very top-of-the-market veteran, but if they could make a move for a player like Jermaine Gresham or Jordan Cameron, that would constitute a huge upgrade.

The Texans got adequate performances from their interior linemen on both sides of the ball, but could stand to improve if a reasonable option presents itself. That also depends on what they decide to do with some of their current veterans, who may represent good enough options to remain with the team. The team faces the same dilemma at inside linebacker and cornerback, where the status quo might be just enough if they decide to bring those units back.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The top extension candidate for the Texans must be right guard Brandon Brooks. Brooks graded out as the eighth-best guard according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), and at a minimal salary the team would want to lock him up long term. Brooks has proven himself over two years, and with only a year left on his rookie deal, this offseason would be the best time for the Texans to extend him with leverage.

The more exciting names are the ones who already showed up in the cap casualties section. Both Johnson and Joseph could be seen as extension candidates due to their high cap numbers. Ideally, the Texans would want both to take a pay cut to stay with the team, but there could be some compromise to lower their current cap number and keep them with the team for a few more years. This applies especially to Johnson, where there would be some added value in having him retire in a Texans uniform.

The Texans also have a decision to make on the future of former first-round pick Whitney Mercilus, and with Reed and Clowney in the fold, Mercilus seems expendable. If they do want to keep him long-term, they could hang it over his head as leverage to signing an extension. If they keep Reed, they could get by even if Clowney misses additional time after an injury plagued rookie season. On the other hand, if Reed leaves in free agency, the leverage returns to Mercilus as the only experienced outside linebacker on the team.

Overall Outlook

Had the Ravens lost to the Browns in Week 17, we might be looking much differently at this Texans’ team and the job O’Brien did with it. Houston would have made it into the playoffs, and would have had a decent shot at beating a Steelers’ squad that was missing All-Pro running back Le’Veon Bell. We would have gotten to see another game or two from Watt, and perhaps a Texans playoff berth would have earned the star defender enough votes to challenge Aaron Rodgers for the MVP.

Jumping from a two-win 2013 to a nine-win 2014 would seem to make the Texans a prime candidate for regression in 2015. The best way to fight regression is always by building on a roster and by getting consistent quarterback play. The Texans can look at the division-rival Colts for proof of that — for those who dismiss that comparison because they think Andrew Luck is a superhuman, the Chiefs are a more reasonable representation. That team was able to withstand losing players such as Brandon Flowers and Eric Berry, and was able to continue winning despite serious roster flaws and obvious red flags for regression. A lot of the credit for that goes to a sound coaching job by Andy Reid, and consistent and efficient quarterback play from Alex Smith. Far from spectacular, he was good enough to keep the team in every game, and allowed a strong running game and dominant defense to shine.

If the Texans are able to bring back the best parts of their team and make a few nominal improvements, all they will need is consistent quarterback play to stay in the playoff hunt in 2015. The only question is whether or not they can find that consistency from one of the quarterbacks on the roster, in the draft, or in free agency.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Ravens

February 18th, 2015 at 7:47pm CST by Rory Parks

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Haloti Ngata, DL: $16,000,000
  2. Joe Flacco, QB: $14,550,000
  3. Lardarius Webb, CB: $12,000,000
  4. Marshal Yanda, G: $8,450,000
  5. Eugene Monroe, T: $7,700,000
  6. Jimmy Smith, CB: $6,898,000
  7. Elvis Dumervil, OLB: $6,375,000
  8. Terrell Suggs, OLB: $6,200,000
  9. Dennis Pitta, TE: $6,200,000
  10. Steve Smith, WR: $4,166,666

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

Other:

Overview

The Ravens suffered an agonizing loss at the hands of the eventual-champion Patriots in the divisional round of the 2014 playoffs to bring a disappointing end to an up-and-down season. Nonetheless, there is reason for optimism in Baltimore, as Joe Flacco enjoyed a career year behind an improved offensive line, and the offense as a whole made tremendous strides under offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak. Although Kubiak left Baltimore to become head coach of the Broncos, the transition to the West Coast leanings of former Bears head coach and noted offensive mind Marc Trestman should be a fairly seamless one.

On the defensive side of the ball, veteran pass rushers Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs combined with young talents like C.J. Mosley, Pernell McPhee, and Brandon Williams to form an imposing front seven, and the special teams unit, buoyed by the feet of Justin Tucker and Sam Koch, enjoyed another strong year. According to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric, Baltimore boasted the ninth-best offense in the league, the eight-best defense, and the second-best special teams unit. Although the AFC North may again prove to be one of, if not the, toughest division in football in 2015, the Ravens should once again be neck-and-neck with the Bengals and Steelers in the fight for the division crown.

Marc Trestman (Vertical)Positions Of Need

Nonetheless, there is plenty of room for concern. The Ravens have a limited amount of cap space entering the offseason, and a big reason for that is the $9.5MM of dead money that former running back Ray Rice will count against the cap. Between Rice and Dennis Pitta, whose playing status for 2015–and for his career–is up in the air after a second major hip injury ended his season in Week 3, the Ravens will devote nearly $16MM of cap room to players who might not even play a snap next season.

Despite that, Baltimore will have to find a way to address a few significant needs. Offensively, the team once again may find itself in need of at least one wide receiver, as Torrey Smith‘s future in Baltimore is highly uncertain. Smith is far and away the best receiver the Ravens have ever drafted, as the team has struggled to groom young receiving talent and in recent years has increasingly looked to veterans like Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Smith Sr. to fill the void. But the former Maryland standout struggled to get into a rhythm in 2014, and despite scoring 11 touchdowns, he posted a career low in yardage (767) and tied a career low with 49 receptions.

Torrey Smith reportedly turned down a five-year, $35MM extension before the 2014 season, which appears to have been a misstep at this point. But even if he cannot match or better that deal, it is unclear whether the Ravens can afford to retain him. Trestman is particularly fond of utilizing the short and intermediate portions of the route tree, and in addition to Smith Sr., Baltimore has a number of younger players who have at least displayed the ability to thrive in those routes. Torrey Smith, meanwhile, has not grown into the complete receiver the Ravens had hoped for, as he is still seen primarily as a deep threat who struggles in other facets of the game. It is also worth noting that Brandon Marshall and Vincent Jackson have both been linked to Baltimore in recent weeks, and if one of them becomes available, either via release or trade, the Ravens could pounce. If they do, Torrey Smith’s days in purple and black would likely be numbered. Baltimore could then look to the draft to find some home run speed on the outside.

Tight end could pose even more of a problem for the Ravens. Owen Daniels filled in nicely for Pitta after Pitta’s season-ending hip injury, but Daniels is on the downside of his career and has struggled with injuries of his own in the past. Plus, many believe that Daniels will follow Kubiak, the only head coach he has ever played for, to Denver (particularly if the Broncos are unable to retain Julius Thomas). With Pitta’s playing career in doubt, Baltimore could look to the free agent market, where Jermaine Gresham could be an interesting fit, and release candidate Vernon Davis might become an option. Beyond that, the Ravens will pray that Pitta can make a healthy return, and they may expend an early draft pick on a player like Maxx Williams, who has drawn favorable comparisons to former Raven Todd Heap.

Although we have heard ad nauseam that running backs are becoming more and more devalued as the NFL continues to evolve into a pass-first league, the Ravens will need to replace Justin Forsett‘s production if he leaves in free agency. Forsett was a revelation in 2014, amassing 1,266 yards and eight touchdowns while sustaining a terrific 5.2 YPC average. But the former seventh-round pick might have priced himself out of Baltimore, as the Ravens cannot afford to pay a premium for a running back. If Forsett leaves, Bernard Pierce would be the logical internal option, but Pierce has dealt with injuries throughout the course of his brief career, and he was outclassed by Forsett when he did see the field in 2014. Last year’s fourth-round pick, Lorenzo Taliaferro, showed some upside as a bruiser in his rookie campaign, but the jury is still out on whether he could capably handle a full workload. Chris Johnson, who was recently released by the Jets, has been linked to Baltimore, but that seems like an unlikely marriage at this point. If the Ravens look to free agency to find a running back, a younger, high-upside player like Roy Helu would appear to be a better fit.

The Ravens boast a fairly strong defense overall, but the secondary was the team’s undoing in 2014. The unit was ravaged by injury and poor play, and its shortcomings played a major role in the Ravens’ inability to finish a near upset of New England in the playoffs. The secondary will greatly benefit just by getting healthy, as the returns of Asa Jackson and standout corner Jimmy Smith, along with the continued good health of Lardarius Webb–who struggled for much of 2014 but showed flashes of his old self down the stretch–will be instrumental in the team’s success going forward. However, the Ravens learned the hard way that you can never have enough depth in the secondary, so it would not be a surprise to see them sign at least one defensive back in free agency and draft at least one. Free agent safety Antrel Rolle and University of Washington corner Marcus Peters would be logical choices.

It would be out of character, not to mention out of the team’s price range, to pursue a high-priced free agent to fill its needs in the secondary. As such, players like Byron Maxwell and Darrelle Revis are almost certainly out of the question, but less expensive options like Rolle, Brandon Flowers, and Javier Arenas might be in play. Baltimore will also hope for growth from last year’s third-round pick Terrence Brooks and for any sign of life out of former first-rounder Matt Elam, who has done nothing to justify his lofty draft status in his two years in the league.

Key Free Agents

We’ve touched on most of the Ravens’ key free agents already. Torrey Smith, Forsett, and, to a lesser extent, Daniels, will be the primary focus of the team’s decision-makers when it comes to retaining their own players, but Baltimore does have one defensive player who will be included in that group: McPhee.

McPhee is the sort of under-the-radar, mid-round gem that GM Ozzie Newsome has been so adept at mining. The former fifth-rounder from Mississippi State is listed as an outside linebacker, but he has also demonstrated the ability to line up anywhere along the defensive line, and he is particularly skilled at getting to the quarterback from the interior of the line. He proved to be a significant part of the Ravens’ pass rush in 2014, and his departure would certainly leave a void. However, as our Zach Links wrote earlier this month, the Ravens may view McPhee as more of a complementary piece than a core player, and given his likely price tag—it would not be surprising to see him net a five-year deal worth upwards of $30MM—it seems unlikely he will be back in Baltimore. Instead, the Ravens will rely on internal options like Kapron Lewis-Moore and Brent Urban, both of whom have high upside but have yet to play a snap in their professional careers due to injury.

Will Hill and Tucker are the biggest names on the team’s restricted free agent list. Given the semblance of stability Hill brought to the Ravens’ secondary in the second half of the season, and given that Tucker has proven himself as both a highly-accurate and clutch kicker during his three years in the league, both players will doubtlessly remain in Baltimore.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

Torrey Smith and McPhee would be the most likely candidates to get the franchise tag this year, but it would be surprising for the Ravens to put the tag on either player. Smith’s regression in 2014 and McPhee’s role as a part-time player—he played only 540 defensive snaps last year—suggest that Baltimore will not absorb the cap hit that the tag for a wide receiver or outside linebacker carries.

Nonetheless, the Ravens will have a few contract issues to resolve. For instance, the team simply cannot afford the $16MM that star defensive lineman Haloti Ngata would count against the cap in 2015, and if he is not willing to restructure his contract, the Ravens would create $8.5MM of cap room by releasing him.

Although the 31-year-old Ngata is on the downside of his career, he proved in 2014 that he is still a premier defensive player, especially when part of a deep rotation of young, talented linemen. He may prefer to stay in Baltimore with the only organization he has ever known, especially since his value on the open market is likely to take a hit thanks to his age and his four-game suspension for Adderall in 2014. Furthermore, many of the teams with the most cap space, who would presumably be able to make the best offer for Ngata’s services, either project to be non-contenders or weaker contenders than Baltimore in 2015. Therefore, it would not be a surprise for him to rework his deal just as Suggs did last season, thereby allowing him to finish his career where it started and providing the Ravens with a little bit of financial breathing room.

It would also behoove the Ravens to extend blue-chip right guard Marshal Yanda, as our Luke Adams wrote last week. Yanda carries an $8.45MM cap number for 2015, so an extension would allow the Ravens to lessen that hit while securing Yanda’s top-flight services for perhaps the rest of his career.

Webb, meanwhile, presents an interesting case. The 29-year-old corner has battled injuries throughout his career, including two torn ACLs and back problems that plagued him throughout much of 2014. But as indicated above, Webb played much better as 2014 went along, and although the Ravens cannot afford his $12MM cap number, they also cannot afford to let a quality defensive back leave. Releasing Webb would create just $2MM of cap space and $10MM of dead money, and Webb does not appear to be the type of player to play “hardball” with his team, so it seems as though the two sides are headed for their second restructure in as many seasons.

The Ravens may also look to extend Jimmy Smith, whose value as a shutdown corner was underscored by his absence after he suffered a season-ending sprained foot in Baltimore’s Week 8 matchup against Cincinnati. Smith is entering the final year of his rookie contract.

As far as releases are concerned, Chris Canty is probably on his way out, and even longtime punter Koch, who carries a $3MM+ cap number, has been discussed as a potential cap casualty. Jacoby Jones, who continued to perform well as a kick returner, saw his stock as a receiver take a serious hit in 2014 as his struggles catching the football resurfaced in a big way. His 2015 cap number of $3.38MM therefore may be too much for the Ravens, who could create $2.5MM of savings if they make Jones a post-June 1 release. If they let Jones go, Asa Jackson or Michael Campanaro would likely get the first crack at return duties. However, Jones, like Koch, has good odds of being back next season, as the cap space created by releasing them may not outweigh the benefits of keeping them on the roster.

Overall Outlook

Even after the expected restructures and releases, the Ravens are not likely to have a ton of cap space to be big spenders in the free agent market. But then again, they never are. Newsome prefers to avoid the first wave of free agency, instead waiting for release candidates from other clubs to become available while collecting a bevy of compensatory picks when his own free agents cash in elsewhere. That approach allows him to continue developing talent through the draft, where he has, with a few exceptions, generally excelled.

Every prediction comes with the obvious caveat of “as long as no one gets hurt.” With that in mind, the Ravens can reasonably expect to be contenders in 2015. The healthy return of a few key pieces in the secondary, along with some much-needed reinforcements in that unit, should complete an already-talented defense. McPhee’s likely departure will sting, but the Ravens have always managed to find talent in the front seven, so I would not expect too much of a drop-off there in 2015, especially if the team can find a way to keep Ngata in the fold.

Offensively, as much as the Ravens like Torrey Smith, he is replaceable. If Smith is not retained, players like Brandon Marshall or Vincent Jackson would become options and would represent upgrades. At tight end, the Ravens currently have little depth behind Pitta, as Crockett Gillmore is seen as a blocking tight end who has shown good hands but who projects as more of a secondary receiving option than a primary target. Baltimore will almost be forced to address that position in free agency or with an early draft choice, and Gresham still has intriguing upside despite not living up to his potential in Cincinnati.

There is also reason to believe that the zone-blocking scheme that turned Forsett into a Pro Bowl player would do the same for any number of backs. As such, if he does not return on a fairly team-friendly deal, I would not expect much panic in Baltimore. I do expect, though, that the team will be fairly strong in 2015, with Trestman at the helm of an offense on the upswing, a strong defensive foundation in place, and an AFC North title well within reach.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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