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Offseason Outlook: Detroit Lions

By | at February 27, 2015 8:21 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Calvin Johnson, WR: $20,558,000
  2. Matthew Stafford, QB: $17,721,250
  3. Stephen Tulloch, LB: $5,800,000
  4. Glover Quin, S: $5,742,500
  5. Golden Tate, WR: $5,350,000
  6. Ezekiel Ansah, DE: $5,071,228
  7. DeAndre Levy, LB: $4,500,000
  8. Jason Jones, DE: $3,983,334
  9. Brandon Pettigrew, TE: $3,800,000
  10. Joique Bell, RB: $3,500,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 23 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview:

With 23 free agents and only $18.44MM worth of cap space, the Lions will have to make some tough choices in the coming months. Much of the attention, if not all of the attention, has been centered on Ndamukong Suh, and for good reason. Not only is Suh one of the most feared defensive linemen in the NFL, but he is the giant domino that will determine how the rest of the offseason goes. The Lions badly want to keep him, of course, but they also know that their “big three” of Suh, Matthew Stafford, and Calvin Johnson is eating up a tremendous portion of their cap room.

Key Free Agents:

Of course, this list starts with none other than Suh. The Lions are working hard on a new contract for the dominant defensive tackle, and GM Martin Mayhew remains confident that the two sides will work something out. It’s always good to have confidence, but those of us on the outside aren’t sure how things are going to work out. Suh’s camp has been vocal about their desire for the biggest contract possible and his team let the world know last season that he wouldn’t mind joining up with the Giants or Jets, where he could maximize his marketability. Suh might also look towards the Seahawks and West Coast teams, as he is a Pacific Northwest native.

The Lions have the franchise tag at their disposal, of course, but that would set them back $26.9MM, even higher than last season’s $22MM salary. As much as they want to keep the former No. 2 overall pick, the near-$27MM figure would represent more than 19% of the Lions’ overall salary cap if they exercise this option. On top of that, the Lions will also be saddled with the $9MM+ in dead money from his rookie contract that will count against the cap. The question isn’t whether the Lions want Suh back — it’s whether they can get anything of substance done in free agency if they pay him mega-bucks, either via the franchise tag or through a long-term pact. Back in December, PFR’s Luke Adams explored the Lions’ different options, including allowing him to walk. Ndamukong Suh

Of course, Suh isn’t the Lions’ only important free agent defensive tackle. Nick Fairley is also scheduled to hit the open market and keeping both players could prove to be challenging. After posting a top-20 season for defensive tackles, per PFF (subscription required), Fairley figures to draw a lot of interest. It also helps that he was found not guilty on a DUI charge, which would have guaranteed a suspension for the first two games of the 2015 season (that could still happen, but the chances have been reduced dramatically). In theory, Fairley could be a franchise candidate if the tag is not used on Suh, but it’s hard to see the Lions wanting to pay him a top salary just a year after turning down his fifth-year option, valued at just $5.5MM. At the time, Detroit didn’t know that Fairley would go from being an inconsistent talent to one of the better DTs in the league. In 2014, Fairley was playing at perhaps his highest level yet before a sprained MCL and PCL in Week 8 ended his season. Despite his limited amounted of snaps (297), he still placed as the league’s 18th-best DT per PFF and his absence on the Detroit defense was very noticeable. Our own Dallas Robinson took a detailed look at Fairley earlier this month.

Defensive end George Johnson tried to make the case that he should be classified as an unrestricted free agent this offseason, but his battle fell short when the NFLPA eventually saw things Detroit’s way. Now a restricted free agent, it seems more likely that he’ll wind up staying put in Detroit. The 27-year-old carved out a role for himself as the preferred bookend off of the bench in 2014 and he should continue that role next season.

Beyond Suh and Fairley, another defensive tackle will be eligible to hit the open market in C.J. Mosley. Mosley isn’t as high of a priority as the other two, of course, but he did do a respectable job filling in for Fairley last season while he was sidelined.

Earlier this month, Mayhew said that he hopes to bring back cornerback Rashean Mathis for the 2015 season, citing the veteran’s versatility as a major positive. Mathis earned the minimum salary last season so it’ll be interesting to see if Detroit will go well beyond that to retain him, if necessary.

The Lions had a revolving door at the left guard position for years before Rob Sims came aboard in 2010 and started 80 straight games. Despite that durability, Sims has been banged up over the last couple of years and his production has declined as a result. Sims did rebound from a slow start in 2014, however, as he earned a positive grade from Pro Football Focus in every game from Week 11 onward. The Lions already informed long-time center Dominic Raiola they don’t plan on bringing him back in 2015, so it remains to be seem if Sims will be asked back. For what it’s worth, Sims wants to stay in Detroit.

Kickers aren’t often featured in the “Key Free Agents” section of our Offseason Outlooks, but the Lions learned the hard way how important a kicker can be this season. After running through two shaky legs in Nate Freese and Alex Henery, the Lions added Matt Prater mid-season and while he wasn’t flawless, he did hold down the position. Prater has been one of the most dominant kickers in the league over the last few years and figures to draw serious interest from any team with a vacancy there. He expressed a desire to stay with the Lions and the club met with his reps in Indianapolis earlier this month.

While they’re not marquee names, Mayhew recently mentioned quarterback Dan Orlovsky and long snapper Don Muhlbach as two under-the-radar potential free agents that the team was optimistic about re-signing, and he has since locked up Muhlbach — Orlovsky could be next. Speaking of Matthew Stafford’s understudies, Kellen Moore won’t be offered an RFA tender but Detroit would be interested in bringing him back.

Positions Of Need:

With Suh and Fairley potentially hitting the open market, the Lions could have a major need at defensive tackle. No, you won’t find another Suh on the open market, but this year’s crop features names like Terrance Knighton, Henry Melton, and Jared Odrick. Besides Suh, you won’t find a more proven free agent DT on the right side of 30 than the run-stuffing Knighton. The Broncos standout has ranked as the 12th- and ninth-best defensive tackle the past two years, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Melton is also an interesting name and he was playing some solid football for the Cowboys in 2014 before he was placed on IR. In the draft, the Lions could take a hard look at guys like Florida State’s Eddie Goldman, Ohio State’s Michael Bennett, and Texas’ Malcom Brown.

The Lions will be in the market for a running back after parting ways with Reggie Bush, who will celebrate his 30th birthday in the coming days. Detroit has Joique Bell on its roster, but the team probably isn’t looking to put a giant workload on his shoulders for 16 games. In theory, the Lions could take a tailback at No. 23 and go for the likes of Melvin Gordon or Todd Gurley. However, I’d expect them to instead target a back in the later rounds. The Lions already have Theo Riddick in-house to help split the workload with Bell, and George Winn also figures to see some carries. The Lions shed a big name in Bush, but they don’t need a star to take his spot on the roster.

The Lions might have some work to do on their offensive line this offseason. If the aforementioned Sims is not retained, Detroit will be in the market for a left guard. Meanwhile, they have a starting right tackle under contract in LaAdrian Waddle, but it’d be hard to count on him staying healthy given his track record over the last couple of seasons. The Lions could roll with Waddle and plug in backup Cornelius Lucas (who made three starts in 2014) as needed, but they would probably prefer to give Stafford more peace of mind when in the pocket. The Lions won’t bring Raiola back next season, but understudy Travis Swanson is ready to move into the starting center role for 2015.

Possible Cap Casualties:

2014, of course, was a year to forget for linebacker Stephen Tulloch. The linebacker’s season ended after just three games when he tore his ACL while celebrating a sack. While he was out, Tahir Whitehead filled in capably, and that leaves the Lions with an interesting choice this offseason. Detroit could continue to roll with Whitehead at middle linebacker and carve out some space by parting ways with Tulloch. The 30-year-old is slated to count $5.8MM against the cap next season. Whitehead, meanwhile, costs just $713K.

If George Johnson is retained, the Lions could gain a bit more breathing room by dropping Jason Jones. Jones is slated to count for $3.98MM against the cap in 2015, but the Lions could save $3.15MM by showing him the door. Beyond Johnson, the Lions have more options at bookend in Darryl Tapp (free agent), Devin Taylor, and Larry Webster.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Would Calvin Johnson re-work his deal to help re-sign Suh? Bell certainly hopes he’ll be open to it. “We’ll have to talk to Calvin, see if he can do something,” Bell said in early February. “We just need him back. Come back, Suh.” Recently, Megatron said that he’ll do whatever he has to do to keep the All-Pro defensive tackle in Detroit, as Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press writes. At present, Johnson is scheduled to count for $20.5MM against the cap in 2015. He has re-worked his contract for the Lions in the past, having restructured his deal in 2013 to free up $3.5MM of cap space.

While there’s uncertainty about a couple of spots on the Lions’ offensive line, there’s no concern when it comes to left tackle, where Riley Reiff is entrenched. At last check, Detroit is undecided about the fifth-year option for offensive tackle but it’s possible the club will look into an extension to keep him beyond that point. Linebacker DeAndre Levy has been a good value on his rookie contract but he’ll be a free agent after he earns $3.5MM in 2015. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Lions lock their starting weakside linebacker up long before another team gets the chance to steal him away. Levy graded out as the third-best outside linebacker in a 4-3 scheme according to the advanced metrics at PFF.

Overall Outlook:

Any way you slice it, retaining Suh will cost the Lions a whole lot of flexibility. However, the Lions have fewer holes than most of the league’s contending teams and they might just bite the bullet at the cost of playing a little thin in some areas.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Market For Safeties

By | at February 27, 2015 8:32 am

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’re taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to safeties. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

For many of the positions we’ve already examined, the top-tier free agent options expected to be available this winter are few and far between, or entirely non-existent. That’s not the case at safety, however. There aren’t a ton of elite players here – McCourty may be the only one, and he’s still a candidate to be franchised – but there are plenty of guys capable of being solid starters, and several with some upside.

The elder statesmen in this group are Adams, Landry, and Rolle. The Giants safety saw his Pro Football Focus grade (subscription required) fall off a cliff in 2014 due to a poor performance against the run, but is only a year removed from being a top-10 player at the position. Adams, meanwhile, finished in the top 10 in ’14, on the strength of the second-best coverage grade among safeties, per PFF. Neither of these guys should be relied upon as a long-term answer, and Landry probably shouldn’t be either, but for teams looking to plug a hole for the 2015 season, there are certainly worse solutions.

Teams looking for a younger player could target someone like Moore, Gilchrist, Searcy, or Stewart. Moore, Searcy, and Stewart appear to be reasonable bets to change teams, since the Broncos have a handful of free agents to re-sign, the Bills have already invested heavily in another safety (Aaron Williams), while Baltimore may not be inclined to pay Stewart a raise after turning him into a capable starter last season.

Other notable names here include Parker, who contributed for the Chiefs at both safety and cornerback in 2014, and Branch, who has had his last two seasons mostly wiped out by injuries after averaging 105 tackles per year from 2009 to 2012.

Other unrestricted options:

Amidst this group of special teams contributors and up-and-down veterans, there are some names worth monitoring.

Lewis logged nearly 1,100 defensive snaps in 2014, and held his own, bouncing back from a forgettable performance in the Wild Card game vs. the Colts a year earlier. His teammate Manning was solid as well, limiting opposing quarterbacks to 105 yards and a 67.7 QB rating on 23 passes thrown in his direction. Coleman emerged as a solid part-time player for the Chiefs, and figures to be looking for an opportunity to start in 2015.

Allen, DeCoud, Landry, and Meriweather are among the veterans whose better days are probably behind them, but if they’re not asked to be every-down players, they could still provide positive value on modest deals. Leonhard played as well as any of those veterans in 2014, but it looks as if he’ll probably call it a career rather than trying to land a new contract for 2015.

Restricted FAs:

If McCourty is the only elite safety eligible for free agency this offseason, his strongest competition for that honor may come from someone in his group. Gipson and Hill, in particular, have developed into above-average starters and are entering their age-25 seasons. The Browns and Ravens, respectively, have the means to lock up their safeties for at least the 2015 season, and Cleveland at least looks like a lock to do so. We’ll see what the Ravens decide with Hill, who has been suspended for off-field issues in each of the last three seasons.

Besides Gipson and Hill, McLeod is a very good bet to receive a restricted free agent tender from the Rams, and Jarrett is coming off a solid season for the Jets, though it remains to be seen if the new coaching staff will want to lock him up. Most of the other players in this group are reserves and/or special-teamers, so if their teams bring them back, it will likely be for less than the RFA tender amount.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

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Free Agent Market For Inside Linebackers

By | at February 26, 2015 9:55 am

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to inside linebackers. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

A year after Karlos Dansby landed the biggest contract of any free agent inside linebacker, signing for four years and $24MM, no member of this year’s class of FA ILBs looks poised to match or exceed those numbers. Harris, who is coming off a four-year pact that averaged $9MM per year, is perhaps the most consistent and reliable player here, having not missed a start during those four seasons. However, he turned 31 last month, meaning another huge payday is probably out of the question.

Like Harris, Hawk has been a reliable piece in the middle of his team’s defense for several years, but both players look poised to join new clubs in 2015. Hawk has already been set free by the Packers, released on Wednesday, while Harris is probably due for a change of scenery after the departure of Rex Ryan from the Jets — the veteran linebacker is said to be prioritizing contending teams, and could accept a little less money in the right situation.

While Harris and Hawk are the grizzled veterans of this group, there are other intriguing options available. Foster and Irving are both in their mid-20s, and would be a nice Plan B for any team that targets and misses out on a player like Harris. McClain might fit that bill as well, though even after a strong season in Dallas, the former Raider still has some red flags — any potential suitor will have to consider McClain’s three failed drug tests when deciding what sort of investment to make.

The last member of this top tier is Spikes, who likely won’t be relied upon as a three-down player. Still, his ability to stop the run is valuable, and was enough to place him 13th among 60 qualified inside linebackers in 2014, per Pro Football Focus’ grades (subscription required).

Other unrestricted options:

Amongst a list primarily made up of special teams contributors and reserve defenders, there are some names worth monitoring here. Brinkley, Dent, and Gachkar all received starts in 2014, and held their own — particularly Brinkley, who was a top-10 inside linebacker against the run, per PFF.

No player in this group appeared in more defensive snaps (1,028) than Mauga, who started every game for the Chiefs. Although he struggled against the run, Mauga wasn’t a detriment to the unit in pass coverage, and got after the quarterback every now and then as well. Lattimore, Maualuga, Matthews, and Williams all logged at least part-time snaps for their respective clubs too, and provided decent enough production.

One more player worth mentioning here is Henderson. As we saw with McClain, it’s possible for a player with off-the-field troubles to return after a season away from the game and have a positive impact on the field. But considering how Henderson’s legal issues piled up a year ago, it’s also possible he may not play another NFL regular season game. He’ll be looking for a team to give him a shot in camp this summer, and is worth keeping an eye on.

Restricted FAs:

The RFA names for most positions we’ve examined so far aren’t too notable, but the ones in this group are an exception. Freeman and Robertson have developed into starters and key pieces for their respective teams, and should certainly be tendered one-year offers, perhaps at a first- or second-round rate. Both the Colts and Browns have plenty of cap space to spare, so I wouldn’t expect to see either player switch teams this winter.

Even Tarpinian, who isn’t a defensive regular in Houston, has some value as a special teams ace for the Texans. Whether his contributions are worthy of an RFA tender remains to be seen, but his 12 special teams tackles in 2014 will ensure he draws interest if he reaches the open market.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

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Offseason Outlook: Denver Broncos

By | at February 25, 2015 9:03 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Peyton Manning, QB: $21,500,000
  2. Ryan Clady, LT: $10,600,000
  3. Von Miller, OLB: $9,754,000
  4. DeMarcus Ware, DE: $8,666,666
  5. T.J. Ward, S: $7,750,000
  6. Aqib Talib, CB: $6,968,750
  7. Louis Vasquez, G/T: $6,250,000
  8. Emmanuel Sanders, WR: $5,850,000
  9. Britton Colquitt, P: $3,750,000
  10. Manuel Ramirez, C/G: $3,166,668

Notable Coaching Changes:

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

The Broncos’ window to capture their first Super Bowl title since 1998 may still be open should Peyton Manning indeed return for an 18th season, but that window has undergone some significant alterations. The Broncos entered last season with probably their best roster since ’98, but endured a divisional-round exit for the second time in three seasons. Despite a 12-4 record that gave Denver 38 regular-season wins since 2012 — matching the 1996-98 Broncos squads for the most conquests in a three-year span — the 24-13 loss to the Colts resulted in John Fox‘s firing after four straight AFC West titles. Coordinators Adam Gase and Jack Del Rio moved on as well, Gase following Fox to Chicago and Del Rio becoming the second straight Broncos defensive coordinator (after Dennis Allen) to take the Raiders’ reins. These moves prompted a reunion of sorts to fix a team that suddenly has more questions than it’s faced in years. Each a former Broncos assistant or head coach, Gary Kubiak and coordinators Rick Dennison and Wade Phillips are the result of a rare performance-induced sideline overhaul of a team that played in the Super Bowl a season ago.NFL: Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

Determining whether a return to a Super Bowl is a feasible reality still depends on Manning’s status. Likely due back and already discussing a restructuring of his deal, Manning tossed 39 touchdown passes — the third-most he’s thrown in a season — and 4,727 yards last year. On the back of Manning and C.J. Anderson, the Broncos finished third in offensive DVOA last season, which was a bit off 2013’s historic mark. But Manning’s prodigious play ceased toward the end of the regular season, and a franchise-altering swoon followed, culminating with the 38-year-old QB averaging just 4.59 yards per attempt in the playoff defeat. That represented Manning’s second-lowest such figure in his 24-game playoff career and raised questions about his future. Manning and the Broncos have until March 9, when the signal-caller’s 2015 contract becomes guaranteed with a $19MM salary, to decide on another year together. But it’s clear the future Hall of Famer will need at least as much help as he’s been receiving the past three years to keep the Broncos in dominant form. Defensively, the Broncos’ 2014 impact additions of Aqib Talib, T.J. Ward and DeMarcus Ware helped result in Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 collective unit (subscription required), but the sum of the defense’s parts bested the group’s overall work. Although the unit ranked fourth in DVOA, the Broncos’ 22.6 points per game yielded were 16th last season despite re-deploying starters Chris Harris, Von Miller, Derek Wolfe and Rahim Moore after season-ending injuries that restrained the defense in 2013.

As of right now, more than a third of the Broncos’ starting lineup are free agents, and other than promising to apply the franchise tag to Demaryius Thomas, the statuses of the rest of Denver’s key contract-year players (Julius Thomas, Terrance Knighton, Orlando Franklin) are murky. Both Demaryius and Julius Thomas reportedly turned down extensions, and Knighton has alerted media he’s unsatisfied with the Broncos’ effort to bring him back. Still a good bet for 12-win seasons, with a QB-record 11 of them, Manning probably returns to make the Broncos AFC West favorites again, but whether they take care of their own will shape this offseason. Manning’s presence triggered spending sprees for a Broncos team that relied on mostly second-tier free agents for years prior to his arrival. But now that one or possibly two years remain in Manning’s career, Denver may not be the marquee free agency destination it was.

Coaching Changes:

Counting the Broncos’ 2011 wild card conquest and their AFC title in 2013, Fox won 49 games in four years. That total trails only Bill Belichick (56) and Pete Carroll (50) during that span. But it couldn’t coax GM John Elway to grant Fox, who received a three-year contract extension last April, a fifth season in the Mile High City. After allowing a risky switch from a pro-style attack to a read-option approach for Tim Tebow, Fox’s degree of difficulty lessened with Manning’s arrival. But higher stakes came with that, and Denver lost three times as a playoff point-spread favorite, ultimately re-routing the conservative 60-year-old coach to the Bears.

“The working relationship there between he and John Elway, it wasn’t the greatest working relationship. It started off great, but then it started not working out,” Jay Glazer said during a Fox Sports 1 segment in January. “… John Elway looked at this season as, ‘This is all or nothing. With what we spent, you’ve got to go win us a Super Bowl.'”

Elway’s replacement hires were somewhat conservative.

Kubiak didn’t join Dan Quinn, Todd Bowles or even Gase among the hot-candidates list in January, but his relationship with Elway provided the trump card for the 53-year-old who spent 20 years as a player and coordinator in Denver. Unlike Gase, who interviewed for the Broncos’ and four other HC spots, Kubiak only took one meeting after elevating the Ravens’ offense last year. Although Kubiak’s eight-year tenure as Texans head coach brought just two playoff berths and concluded with a 2-14 campaign and late-season firing in 2013, his rushing offenses ranked in the top 10 in four of the past five seasons with the most recent on the back of journeyman Justin Forsett‘s 1,266 yards. The zone-blocking scheme Kubiak will use again in Denver may have peaked in the NFL during his first coaching stint there. Five Broncos runners, including Olandis Gary and Reuben Droughns, totaled 1,000-yard seasons from 1995-05.

Although Kubiak is still expected to call plays, something he didn’t do until 2005 under Mike Shanahan in his previous Broncos stint, this will be Dennison’s eighth year as an offensive coordinator. A longtime Broncos assistant prior to taking over as Denver’s OC in 2006, Dennison followed Kubiak to Houston and Baltimore. Joe Flacco established career highs in passing yards and TDs under Dennison’s watch as QBs coach last season. Despite his familiarity with Kubiak’s play action-heavy system, Dennison won’t have the same opportunities Gase did. The sideline architect calling the shots for the Broncos’ accelerated attack that set numerous NFL records in 2013, Gase could be missed as the Broncos transition away from an offense that thrived on creating short- and mid-range space for Manning’s targets to an older model with fewer formations and nuances.

The most notable aspect of Phillips’ return to Denver is the return of a 3-4 defense. Aside from the two Josh McDaniels years, the Broncos have deployed a 4-3 look as their base since Phillips’ last stint with the franchise — as their DC from 1989-92 and head coach in the two successive seasons. Fired three times as a head coach, the 67-year-old has supervised seven teams’ defenses dating back to 1981 and enjoyed success revitalizing units. Phillips won’t have to reshape as much in his new gig with personnel that should be able to adjust to role shifts. Larger defensive ends Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson make for better 5-technique candidates than ends from most 4-3 teams. Two speed-rushers (Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware) with experience pursuing from two-point stances and outside linebackers who led the team in tackles the past two years: Danny Trevathan in 2013 and Brandon Marshall last season, respectively, are also due back.

Key Free Agents

The variable in that scenario and a key component in the Broncos’ offseason matrix is whether they want to pay up to keep the fulcrum of their formidable run defenses the past two years. Knighton has the size to play nose in a 3-4 set but not the experience, and although he was an active force in the Broncos finishing seventh and second in run stoppage in his two seasons, he logged 528 snaps last year — 32nd-most among defensive tackles. Adding to the uncertainty surrounding the gregarious lineman is his reported demand of $7.5MM per season, a figure that would rank second among 3-4 DTs in the league. Even with Demaryius Thomas’ presumed franchise tag salary taking up almost half of the Broncos’ cap room, Knighton returning at $7.5MM per season makes more sense if Denver still planned to play a 4-3. Twenty 4-3 defensive tackle contracts exceed the value of the third-highest 3-4 NT’s deal, according to OverTheCap. Knighton’s two-year, $4.5MM pact turned out to be a bargain for the Broncos, but the odds of the team meeting his new asking price are slim.

That decision becomes more complicated with multiyear starters Julius Thomas, Franklin and Moore, as well as several lower-value starters, up for new deals. Assuming the Broncos don’t reach a long-term accord with Demaryius Thomas, his franchise tag of approximately $12.8MM will make re-ups for the aforementioned players difficult. If the Broncos follow through on not re-signing Knighton or the aforementioned trio of 2011 draftees, they’ll continue a thrifty trend when it comes to keeping their own picks. The Broncos currently have just two of their own draft choices on second contracts — Ryan Clady and David Bruton — although Harris and Britton Colquitt were undrafted players they re-signed.

Using the method of bringing in outside help the past two years by signing big names like Ware, Talib, Ward and Wes Welker, the Broncos effectively allowed the players from previous regimes’ drafts to leave, and excluding Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, none were above-average starters. With that being the case this year with Julius Thomas, Franklin (PFF’s 13th-best guard last season; subscription required) or Virgil Green, who based on his run-blocking prowess outranked Thomas in PFF’s tight end hierarchy, permitting the bulk of a class chosen by this front office to depart may send a bad message to the locker room.

Keeping Julius Thomas would go a long way to the passing game staying in high gear, but the 26-year-old tight end appears set on an exit strategy. Beyond Knighton, Green could then be the No. 3 priority for the Broncos considering his productive stretch once ground gains became more prudent after Thomas re-injured his ankle. Of the unrestricted FAs, center Will Montgomery, who worked in Shanahan’s zone scheme in Washington prior to signing a one-year deal last season, could slot just behind Green on the Broncos’ itinerary. He wouldn’t cost much to retain. Aiming to return for his age-34 season, Welker will play elsewhere after an inconsistent and punishing Broncos tenure.

Positions Of Need

Of the quarterbacks who started all 16 games last season, Manning was the least-sacked at just 16. Although his accuracy against the blitz waned considerably, Manning’s 2.22 seconds per release makes official sacks tricky. But the Broncos used three players at right tackle last season, made changes at center and right guard and scrapped some of the aggressive elements offensively after the Patriots, Raiders, and Rams regularly pressured Manning in midseason games. Beyond Clady and Louis Vasquez, the group will see more reconfiguration.

With Franklin, who often struggled to match up with quicker pass-rushers at right tackle but adapted his power game well at left guard, likely moving on, Manuel Ramirez being a better fit in a man-blocking scheme and Montgomery more of a stop-gap fix than multiyear solution, the Broncos will need at least three linemen in free agency or the draft. They drafted Michael Schofield in the third round last year to work at right tackle, but undrafted FA Paul Cornick saw game reps instead; Schofield didn’t dress for a game as a rookie. Kubiak’s most recent right tackle in Houston, 27-year-old Derek Newton, would be a fit with former Broncos draft choices Ryan Harris and Tyler Polumbus serving as lower-end options at Denver’s most troublesome position. Miami’s Ereck Flowers or LSU’s La’el Collins could still be on the board at No. 28 if the Broncos fail to land a proven tackle in free agency.

The Broncos will likely draft at least one interior lineman in the early-to-mid rounds while signing another. Vasquez’s move back to right guard, where he was a first-team All-Pro in 2013, will help this transition. But a veteran will join as well with not much in the way of existing depth here, although 2014 sixth-round pick Matt Paradis had a year to develop behind Montgomery and Ramirez last season.

Not utilized much in pass-rush situations, Knighton remained the Broncos’ only proven run-stopper inside with 2013 first-rounder Sylvester Williams regressing after a promising finish as a rookie. A four-year starter in a 3-4 defense, Cardinals run-stopping NT Dan Williams would be a good consolation prize here with Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley and Knighton dominating the market’s defensive tackle hype.

If the Broncos whiff on re-signing Green as well, they’ll have to start over at tight end with Jacob Tamme also a free agent and relegated to special teams duty the last two years. Green does not have the separation ability Julius Thomas does, so even if the Broncos can convince him to stay, they’ll need to add a move tight end. Jordan Cameron seems bound to leave Cleveland with the quarterback position in shambles and offers good receiving skills, but he may draw an offer in the neighborhood of Thomas’ despite his injury-marred contract year. Considering how much the Broncos have relied on familiarity in their offseason hires, Owen Daniels (Kubiak’s tight end for nine straight seasons) seems like the realistic backup option to Thomas. Denver’s passing game would take a hit in that event with an clear athletic chasm residing between those two players.

Once the Broncos traded up to take Cody Latimer in the second round last year, their 2015 plan appeared clear: move Emmanuel Sanders back to the slot where the Steelers used him and align Latimer outside after Welker’s contract expires. But Latimer, who displayed an elite catch radius at Indiana, received sparse reps behind the Broncos’ top three while Jarvis Landry and Donte Moncrief became regulars despite being selected later. It would be difficult to imagine Denver turning to Andre Caldwell here despite the veteran being under contract; he had a rough year. But in an offense that relies more on double-tight end sets, there won’t be as much onus on Latimer than in Gase’s three-wide looks.

Ward and Moore in a way complemented each other well, with both safeties exhibiting a clear strength. Moore rebounded from his infamous playoff misplay and a life-threatening injury in 2013 with a steadier coverage campaign. That facet helped justify his weakness against the run, which isn’t as big of an issue for a free safety. Working often as a sub-package linebacker, Ward finished with the seventh-worst coverage grade among the 87 safeties PFF graded. With Ward signed long-term, the Broncos will need to place a premium on coverage skills in the likely event they replace Moore. Depth-wise, David Bruton serves as a key special teamer and physical-type safety, and Quinton Carter will be allowed to leave after missing two full seasons due to injury. The Bills’ Da’Norris Searcy and Chiefs’ Ron Parker, who began the year as a cornerback, are possible contingency plans to team with Ward.

The impending James Casey visit could fulfill the Broncos’ quest for their first fullback slot in three years. The new regime will sign one, leaving fewer opportunities for Manning to work in his preferred three-WR set.

Extension Candidates:

The Broncos’ best draft since at least 2006, which produced Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Elvis Dumervil and Chris Kuper, started with Miller. The second pick in what became the first draft under the new collective bargaining agreement, Miller is perhaps the NFL’s second-best all-around defensive talent to J.J. Watt. Unlike Watt, selected nine spots later in 2011, Miller does not have a long-term agreement and will enter the final season of his rookie contract after the Broncos picked up his fifth-year option. Legal and substance-abuse issues notwithstanding, Miller is primed to be the premier defensive player in the 2016 free agent class should the Broncos not work out a deal or use the franchise tag on him.

Unless Miller finds himself in off-the-field trouble again, it’s unlikely he’ll hit that market. Ranking as PFF’s best 4-3 outside linebacker by a substantial margin from 2011-13 (subscription required) and second-best in 2014, he’s paired a dynamic pass-rushing skill set (49 sacks) with elite run-containing ability. His second contract should eclipse Clay Matthews’ total value of $66MM. Seeing what the Chiefs do with Justin Houston will help set a price for the Broncos’ more well-rounded linebacker. A move back to the 3-4 he starred in at Texas A&M, Miller and his already-diverse repertoire of edge maneuvers could be further on display this season, making the Broncos’ decision easier.

Another PFF wunderkind as the third-best 4-3 end last year, Jackson looks to finally be given a starting role in his contract year after outperforming starting end Wolfe the past two seasons. Denver’s fifth-round selection in 2012’s flashed consistently as a reserve end and tackle with the size to remain up front in a 3-4. Similar to the Ravens’ Pernell McPhee, Jackson could see his value rise out of his team’s price range with another good year. The Broncos would be wise to discuss a plan for the future with their versatile 25-year-old utility talent before this happens, but with big deals for Ware and likely Miller and the three pricey long-term contracts in the secondary, there may not be enough space to make a substantial offer.

Without factoring in any money that could be allocated to Demaryius Thomas, Miller and any free agents this year, the Broncos have $51.7MM of cap room in 2016, which is among the NFL’s lower third, according to OverTheCap.

Overall Outlook:

The Broncos still possess more talent than most teams, but the Super Bowl-or-bust mantra they used the past two seasons doesn’t seem as appropriate now. Those rosters had clear identities and, at least coming into the season, Manning in peak form. Without certainty on either matter at present, pressure looms for the Broncos in the coming weeks to retain the right players and continue to generate good value from the outsiders they sign. The first part of that equation wasn’t as big of an issue for them in recent years with no free agents of this caliber potentially leaving. Having to replace several quality starters and produce a better result may be asking too much. If the Broncos can’t stay on their current level after they cleared out the coaching staff, then Elway will face real criticism for the first time in his tenure. Manning regressing much further likely ensures that reality.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Steelers

By | at February 24, 2015 11:03 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Ben Roethlisberger, QB: $18,395,000
  2. Lawrence Timmons, LB: $12,566,250
  3. Antonio Brown, WR: $9,787,500
  4. Troy Polamalu, S: $8,250,000
  5. Maurkice Pouncey, C: $8,100,000
  6. Cortez Allen, CB: $6,981,000
  7. Marcus Gilbert, T: $6,980,000
  8. Cameron Heyward, DL: $6,969,000
  9. Heath Miller, TE: $5,666,666
  10. Mike Mitchell, S: $4,950,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 22 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

By virtue of a Week 17 victory against division rival Cincinnati, the Steelers snagged the AFC North title in 2014, which is impressive enough in its own right, but especially so when considering that the division sent three teams to the playoffs last year. Much of Pittsburgh’s success was built on its tremendous offensive performance, as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger enjoyed a career year behind an offensive line that managed to keep him mostly upright, and Le’Veon Bell established himself as a premier all-purpose threat. Antonio Brown, meanwhile, proved that he is one of the league’s most prolific receivers, catching an incredible 129 passes for nearly 1,700 yards. He even added a passing touchdown and a punt return touchdown to the 13 TDs that he hauled in through the air. Combined with the strong showings of second-year wideout Markus Wheaton and rookie Martavis Bryant, the Steelers offense looks like it will be a powerhouse for the foreseeable future.

The defense, though, was a different story, and its underwhelming performance played a major role in the team’s disappointing defeat at the hands of wildcard entrant Baltimore in the first round of the playoffs. According to Pro Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric, Pittsburgh’s defense was the third-worst in the league in 2014, while their offense was the second-best. The secondary’s performance was especially troubling, and that unit will be a primary focal point of the team’s offseason.

Former NFL agent Joel Corry recently tabbed the Steelers as having one of the worst salary cap situations in the league, and even the inevitable extension of Roethlisberger’s contract and the departure of a few aging veterans would not bring a ton of relief. After years of so-called salary cap hell, the Steelers will once again have to make every penny count over the next few months.

Key Free Agents

There are several notable names on the Steelers’ list of pending free agents, but only one is likely to generate a great deal of discussion: Jason Worilds. Pittsburgh used the transition tag on Worilds last season, and it has not ruled out using it again in 2015. The cost for the transition tag this year, though, will likely be around $11MM, and just last week GM Kevin Colbert implied that Worilds’ time in Pittsburgh may be up.

Jason Worilds (vertical)

Worilds ranked as the 11th-best 3-4 outside linebacker out of 46 qualified players according to Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required), and his departure would leave a bit of a gap in the team’s pass rush, which has been among the league’s worst in each of the last two seasons. But although Worilds is a good player, he is not a great player at this point in his career, and the Steelers may be better off spending their money elsewhere. Although sack totals are by no means the best way to measure a player–particularly a player like Worilds, who has shown that he can also play well against the run–Worilds’ eight sacks suggest that his production would not be irreplaceable.

Outside of Worilds, the remainder of Pittsburgh’s free agent crop is rather underwhelming. Although Ike Taylor and James Harrison conjure fond memories for Steelers fans, their play has inevitably deteriorated in recent seasons as they reach the end of their careers. There has been talk that both players could retire or follow former defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau to Tennessee, but it is unlikely that their departure would have anything other than sentimental import for the Steelers.

Coaching Changes

Speaking of LeBeau, who served as the team’s defensive coordinator from 1995-1996 and from 2004-2014 before stepping down from his position in January, his absence from the Steelers’ sidelines will be a strange one. LeBeau enjoyed tremendous success as the leader of Pittsburgh’s defense, and although his replacement, Keith Butler, will retain LeBeau’s familiar 3-4 scheme, the overall dynamic will certainly be different.

Butler will be tasked with getting the most out of a defense that has some young talent in unproven linebackers Ryan Shazier and Jarvis Jones, both of whom suffered significant injuries in 2014, and up-and-coming defensive end Cameron Heyward. But outside of those players, there is little to be excited about on the defensive side of the ball (assuming Worilds does not, in fact, return). We learned earlier this month that the team would target pass rushers and defensive backs in free agency and the draft, and given the talent disparity between Pittsburgh’s offense and defense, it would appear that the front office is prepared to devote most of its efforts this offseason to restocking the talent in Butler’s unit.

Contract Issues

Given the way Roethlisberger performed in 2014, there is no reason to believe he cannot continue playing at an All-Pro level for the next four or five seasons. To that end, we have heard for a few months that the team was preparing to give the face of its franchise a hefty extension, with something along the lines of a six-year, $120MM deal in play. Such an extension would likely lower Roethlisberger’s cap number for this year, thereby giving the team the financial wiggle room it needs to address the defense in free agency. Contract talks are progressing, and an agreement could come within the next several weeks.

On a less pleasant note, the Steelers could choose to part ways with Troy Polamalu, who has lost much of the dynamic playmaking ability that made him one of the most-feared safeties in the league for years. Releasing Polamalu would clear about $3.7MM in cap space, and even though the internal options to replace him are less than inspiring, the team may have no other choice but to part ways with the future Hall-of-Famer.

Cortez Allen, who was rewarded with an extension in September after a solid 2013 season, was nothing short of a disaster in 2014, and the team could choose to let him go rather than risk suffering through a similar performance in 2015. Though Allen’s release would create a minimal amount of cap room, it may be more logical for the Steelers to see if he can rebound in 2015 rather than cut a player at a position of need just one year removed from a strong campaign.

The team might also choose to extend guard David DeCastro, who has established himself as one of the better interior offensive linemen in the league over the course of the last several seasons, and Heyward, whose pass-rushing skills are still developing but who has shown great promise as an edge-setter on the defensive line. At this point, an extension is more likely for Heyward, who can become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year. With DeCastro, the Steelers can buy a little more time if they exercise his fifth-year option, which would keep him under club control for 2016.

Overall Outlook

The Steelers, traditionally known for their iconic defenses, saw a true changing of the guard in 2014. Their offense, while always solid or better under Roethlisberger’s leadership, absolutely exploded last season, propelling Pittsburgh to the AFC North crown. The defense, meanwhile, will be the Steelers’ undoing in 2015 if they cannot utilize their minimal cap room and the draft to address their needs in the secondary and in the pass rush. A team that relies so heavily on their offense is rarely a title contender, but if Butler can find some of LeBeau’s magic, and if the team can unearth a gem or two in the draft, 2015 might just yield another chance at a seventh Super Bowl title.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason Outlook: Indianapolis Colts

By | at February 24, 2015 7:49 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Vontae Davis, CB: $11,250,000
  2. Robert Mathis, OLB: $7,750,000
  3. Anthony Castonzo, T: $7,438,000
  4. Arthur Jones, DT: $7,100,000
  5. Andrew Luck, QB: $7,034,363
  6. Gosder Cherilus, T: $6,900,000
  7. Greg Toler, CB: $5,833,334
  8. D’Qwell Jackson, LB: $5,750,000
  9. Erik Walden, OLB: $4,250,000
  10. Donald Thomas, T: $3,750,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 29 overall pick
  • Acquired sixth-round pick from Seahawks in deal for Marcus Burley.
  • Acquired seventh-round pick from Cowboys in deal for Caesar Rayford.
  • Owe seventh-round pick to 49ers for Cam Johnson.

Other:

Overview

Year three of the Andrew Luck era was another successful one for the Colts, whose 11-5 record was enough to earn them a second straight AFC South crown and a third consecutive playoff berth. The Colts also scored a pair of postseason victories, including a road upset over old friend Peyton Manning and the Broncos, before bowing out at the hands of the Super Bowl-winning Patriots in the conference championship.Andrew Luck

Indianapolis has improved by one playoff round per season under Luck and head coach Chuck Pagano, going from a wild-card loss to a divisional defeat to an AFC title game exit. The next logical step is the Super Bowl. In order to get there, though, the Colts will need a highly productive offseason – one which sees general manager Ryan Grigson fortify the roster around his 25-year-old franchise quarterback.

Positions Of Need

The Colts ranked first in the NFL in passing, third in total yardage and sixth in points per game in 2014. Those numbers would indicate that their offense isn’t in need of much help. However, they were a pedestrian 17th in Football Outsiders’ offensive efficiency ratings, their rushing attack ranked 22nd in yardage, and two of their established wide receivers are without contracts. Thus, there’s clearly work to be done.

Running back is a position the Colts are sure to address in the coming months. That could simply mean re-signing free agent-to-be Ahmad Bradshaw, though the eight-year veteran has dealt with major injury issues as a Colt and appeared in just 13 of a possible 32 regular-season games. To his credit, the 28-year-old racked up impressive numbers (725 total yards and eight touchdowns) prior to breaking his fibula last November. After Bradshaw got hurt, Dan Herron emerged as Indy’s most effective back. Herron averaged a terrific 4.5 yards per rush, but it was only over 78 attempts and his career sample size of 87 carries in three years is minuscule.

If the Colts don’t believe Bradshaw or Herron is the solution to their backfield woes, they might think differently of 10-year veteran Frank Gore. Multiple sources have linked Indianapolis to the career 49er, who the Sacramento Bee’s Matt Barrow wrote in January was “curious” about joining the Luck-led Colts. More recently, Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller said last week (video link) that Gore to Indianapolis was a “shoo-in.” The bruising Gore would make sense as a stopgap, considering Colts O-coordinator Pep Hamilton is a proponent of a power running game.

The Colts also have uncertainty at receiver, where their only signed, viable options after T.Y. Hilton are Donte Moncrief and ex-CFL star Duron Carter. All three are 25 or younger, a far cry from Reggie Wayne – the Colts’ biggest free agent in terms of name recognition. The 36-year-old, who has played all 14 of his pro seasons with the Colts and caught over 1,000 passes, hasn’t yet informed the team if he plans on returning in 2015. Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star wrote last week that the Colts are “noncommittal” about Wayne, who has battled injuries and dips in production the last two years.

In the event the Colts part ways with Wayne and enable fellow free agent Hakeem Nicks to walk, they could turn to the open market to find a complement to Hilton. There are several accomplished receivers who are expected to test the market. One option is four-year Raven Torrey Smith. The 6-foot, 205-pounder has been both effective (213 receptions, 16.9 YPC, 30 TDs) and durable, having played in all 64 of Baltimore’s regular-season games during his career, and would give Luck a proven wideout to team with Hilton. It may work in the Colts’ favor that their new receivers coach, Jim Hostler, held the same position in Baltimore from 2011-13 and tutored Smith for three years. Signing Smith would take a sizable chunk out of the Colts’ $39MM-plus in cap space. Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com tweeted earlier this month that Smith rejected a five-year, $35MM offer ($19MM in guarantees) from the Ravens prior to last season.

Obviously, in order to get the most out of their backs and receivers (whomever they may be), the Colts will need a dependable offensive line. They have a strong twosome in stellar left tackle Anthony Castonzo and guard Jack Mewhort, but the rest of the group is less capable. Even though right tackle Gosder Cherilus had a miserable, injury-plagued 2014, the seven-year veteran is expected to stay in place because he’s been good in the past and cutting him would cost the Colts more than keeping him. That leaves center and guard as areas Grigson may try to upgrade.

Indy started a slew of different centers last season and, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), A.Q. Shipley was the strongest of the group. However, the restricted free agent is on the outs, Holder wrote last week. Further, according to Holder, Grigson won’t use more than a late-round pick on a center. He could go the free agency route for the Chiefs’ Rodney Hudson or the Raiders’ Stefen Wisniewski. Either would be probable upgrades over the Colts’ in-house options (Khaled Holmes and Jonotthan Harrison). Joel Corry, a cap expert and former agent, believes Hudson will end up with a deal upward of $5MM per year, according to the Kansas City Star’s Terez A. Paylor. Wisniewski is seeking money in the realm of an average starting center, ESPN’s Michael Wagaman has reported.

As for the guard position, the 49ers’ Mike Iupati heads the free agent class and, as an elite-level run blocker, would seem to be an excellent fit for a Colts team that needs to fix its ground game. The three-time Pro Bowler is going to cost a lot, without question, and landing him would likely mean moving Mewhort from left to right guard – where the soon-to-be second-year man played occasionally at Ohio State. Regardless, with Mewhort and Iupati, Indy would have a top-end guard tandem on paper.

On the other side of the ball, the Colts’ defensive line has already begun undergoing changes. The team made a newsworthy move Monday in releasing tackle Ricky Jean-Francois, who was due $5.5MM next season. In the wake of the Jean-Francois news, Holder speculated that the Colts could pursue the likes of Nick Fairley (Detroit) and Terrance Knighton (Denver) on the open market. Adding Fairley or Knighton would be auspicious for the Colts, who finished last season an unspectacular 18th in conventional run defense and 19th in Football Outsiders’ version. The Colts’ kryptonite, the Patriots, exploited that area of Indy’s defense in both teams’ matchups last season: LeGarrette Blount rushed for 148 yards in New England’s 45-7 AFC championship drubbing. Two months prior, the previously unknown Jonas Gray famously eclipsed the 200-yard mark in a 42-20 Pats victory.

Besides stopping the run, the other key function of the front seven is generating a pass rush. Despite the fact that the Colts finished 2014 with the ninth-most sacks in the league (41), Grigson still wants more rushers, Mike Chappell of RTV6 tweeted last week.

Eleven-year Colts veteran Robert Mathis paced the league in sacks two years ago (19.5) before missing all of last season, but Indy wouldn’t be wise to think his return will cure its ills. Mathis sat out 2014 because of a PED suspension and, worse, a torn Achilles. Moreover, he’s on the wrong end of the aging curve at 34. ESPN’s Mike Wells reported Monday that the Colts are “likely” to draft a rusher to complement Mathis and Jonathan Newsome, also noting that they’ll keep an eye on free agency. Wells specifically mentioned the Chiefs’ Justin Houston, who led the league in sacks last season (22), and the Giants’ Jason Pierre-Paul, on whom New York is expected to place the franchise tag.

The prime area of concern on the back end of the Colts’ defense is safety, where they’re especially fallow. They already cut one starter from last season in strong safety LaRon Landry, while the other (free safety Mike Adams) is presently unsigned. So is main reserve Sergio Brown. There does seem to be optimism about the return of Adams, whom Grigson said the team would “love” to keep. At 33, Adams had a career year in 2014 with five interceptions and earned his first career Pro Bowl trip.

Regardless of whether Adams re-signs, the position will still need attention, which Pagano acknowledged. “There’s a bunch of guys out there in free agency we could take a look at,” Pagano said, according to Holder. “There’s a bunch of guys here at the draft we’ll evaluate.” 

The premier free agent is expected to be the Patriots’ Devin McCourty. Signing him would greatly aid the Colts while simultaneously dealing a tremendous blow to rival New England. Draft-wise, former Alabama star Landon Collins is already on the Colts’ radar.

Key Free Agents

The Colts have other noteworthy free agents besides the aforementioned. One is defensive lineman Cory Redding, who isn’t a slam dunk to play anywhere next season. The 34-year-old is pondering retirement after playing a substantial role for last year’s Colts, appearing in over 70% of defensive snaps and garnering praise from Pro Football Focus for his efforts.

Indianapolis also has decisions to make on two of Redding’s fellow integral defenders, linebacker Jerrell Freeman and cornerback Darius Butler. As a restricted free agent, Freeman is almost sure to return to the Colts. Butler, however, is unrestricted and could change uniforms as early as next month. The six-year veteran has spent the last three seasons with the Colts, totaling eight interceptions. While none of those INTs came in 2014, Butler was still a solid part of Indy’s above-average pass defense.

Finally, there’s a trio of unsung hero types in offensive lineman Joe Reitz, safety Colt Anderson and linebacker Andy Studebaker. The latter two are special teams stalwarts, while the 29-year-old Reitz’s best trait has been his versatility. Last year, in fact, he started at a team-high three different O-line positions and fared well. None of Reitz, Anderson or Studebaker should cost a ton for the Colts to bring back, but they’re all useful role players. Indy would be smart to re-sign all three.

Possible Cap Casualties

There’s one painfully obvious cap casualty on the Colts: Trent Richardson. It seems inevitable that the relationship between the Colts and the disappointing running back will end this offseason.

Richardson, whom the Colts acquired from Cleveland for a first-round pick in 2013, has been a colossal bust in his two seasons with Indianapolis. The 24-year-old has played 29 regular-season games as a Colt and registered just 977 rushing yards with a paltry 3.09 per-carry average. Worsening matters is that Richardson was scratched for the Colts’ final two playoff games last month, the latter of which was a suspension for missing a team walkthrough. With all of that considered, it’s clear that the next, final step in the marriage between the two sides is a divorce. If Indy releases Richardson, it will save more than $3MM for next season (provided Richardson’s guarantees void because of his suspension). The writing is on the wall.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

The Colts are going to have to shell out major money in the near future for some of their paramount offensive players.

Atop the list is Luck, who will be paid handsomely for both his accomplishments and his status as the face of the Colts’ franchise. During his three-year career, Luck has started all 52 of the Colts’ games (playoffs included), led the team to three straight double-digit-win outputs, and thrown for 86 touchdowns and nearly 13,000 yards in the regular season.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweeted last month that Indy was working on a contract that could make Luck the league’s highest-paid player. Team owner Jim Irsay refuted Schefter’s report, saying Luck still has two years left on his deal. If he isn’t extended by later this offseason, the Colts will exercise Luck’s 2016 option to make sure he’ll at least be theirs for two more seasons. Barring something disastrous, though, Indianapolis will surely do everything in its power to keep Luck under center for a lot longer.

The Colts will have to make more immediate decisions on three of Luck’s offensive mates – Hilton, Castonzo and tight end Coby Fleener – all of whom are scheduled for free agency next year.

Hilton came into the league with Luck in 2012 and has developed into his QB’s go-to target. The 5-foot-9, 178-pounder just completed his second straight 82-catch season, one in which he set a career high in yardage (1,345) and tied his previous touchdown mark (seven). The 25-year-old could end up with a contract similar to the one the Jets gave Eric Decker last offseason. Decker was coming off his second consecutive 80-catch, 1,000-yard season as a Bronco when he signed a five-year, $36.25MM deal with New York ($15MM in guarantees). He put up 216 catches (13.7 YPC) and 32 touchdowns from 2011-13, when his age ranged from 24 to 26. Compare that to Hilton’s three-year stretch – 214 grabs (15.4 YPC) and 19 scores from ages 23 to 25 – and you have the neighborhood in which his next contract is likely to live.

Castonzo, the cornerstone of the Colts’ offensive line, has appeared in and started 60 games since joining the team as a second-round pick in 2011. The 26-year-old has been the quintessence of reliability over the last three years. He played every offensive snap for the Colts in 2012, missed only four in 2013, and led all NFL O-linemen in snaps last season (1,115). Castonzo will make $7.4MM in 2015, the fifth-year option Indy picked up last offseason. That option is the value of the highest-paid 25 players at the position, excluding the top three players. An extension should see him climb toward the lower end of the top 10, where yearly value ranges start at $8.5MM.

Finally, there’s Fleener – who was part of a superb Colts 2012 draft class that, as mentioned, also produced Luck and Hilton. Fleener finished 2014 ranked 16th among tight ends in catches (51), eighth in yardage (774) and tied for fifth in TDs (eight). His per-catch average was tops at the position among those with at least 25 receptions. He’ll make under $1.7MM next season and is sure to get a considerable raise between this offseason and next. If Fleener ends up in the top 10 tight ends in yearly contract value, that would mean a salary north of $5MM per annum.

Overall Outlook

Assuming Luck stays healthy, the least the Colts will do next season is rule their division for the third straight year. Whether they can ascend to greater heights and dethrone the Patriots in the AFC will hinge on how well Grigson handles the offseason. The GM will have plenty of money to work with, which should help the Colts repair at least some of their issues and close the gap on the Pats, but he’ll have to keep the long-term future in mind when he considers spending it. His most important order of business this offseason will be locking up Indy’s offensive linchpins for the foreseeable future.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Market For 4-3 Outside Linebackers

By | at February 24, 2015 12:03 pm

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to linebackers. Having already covered 3-4 outside linebackers in our look at edge defenders, today’s focus is on 4-3 OLBs. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

If a team surveys the free agent market this winter in search of an outside linebacker, that club would be much better off running a 3-4 scheme than a 4-3 system, given the talent available at each spot. While there are a handful of above-average 3-4 OLBs expected to be available two weeks from now, the top tier of 4-3 OLBs is led by Weatherspoon, who missed the 2014 season with a ruptured Achilles and sat out over half of the 2013 campaign as well, due to knee and foot injuries.

While he may not be the most reliable player here when it comes to health, Weatherspoon is still just 27 years old, and averaged 110 tackles per season in 2011 and 2012. And it’s not as if the other players in this group are slam dunks to play 16 games either — Durant and Briggs also missed significant chunks of the 2013 and 2014 seasons with injuries of their own.

If these players stay healthy, they should all but solid contributors for new or old teams in 2015, but taking into account concerns about health, age (Briggs), and inconsistency (Smith), I don’t expect any of them to find a big payday on the open market.

Other unrestricted options:

There are a few interesting names here, including Herzlich, who played just 304 defensive snaps for the Giants in 2014, but graded out as one of the best run defenders at the position, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Casillas was a part-time contributor down the stretch for the Super Bowl champion Patriots. Hayes has 70 career starts on his résumé. Thomas and Williams each racked up 85+ tackles, and Anderson is only a year removed from a season of 100+ tackles himself.

Still, if the players in our first tier weren’t exactly impact performers, that applies to doubly to most of the guys on this list. Some could hold their own as starters, but most will be reserves, part-timers, or special teams contributors.

As a housekeeping note, Bynes would have been eligible for restricted free agency, but the Lions have announced they won’t tender him an RFA offer. While he could still return to Detroit, Bynes appears poised to have the opportunity to test the open market.

Restricted FAs:

Lamur earned the most playing time of anyone in this group, by far, but in 900+ defensive snaps, he graded as a below-average in pass coverage, run defense, and as a pass rusher, per PFF, which ranked him 39th out of 40 players at the position overall. The Bengals may have viewed his performance more favorably, but it remains to be seen whether it was enough to earn an RFA tender.

Besides Lamur, most of the other players on this list made more of an impact on special teams than on defense, though Johnson was the one exception. In addition to recording 11 special teams tackles, Johnson was also forced into action on defense during the second half, logging 251 snaps. The Broncos won’t want him starting at linebacker, and he certainly isn’t their top priority in free agency, but he’s a solid depth piece, and I expect the team to bring him back — we’ll see if Denver values him enough to make him an RFA tender offer, or if the club tries to re-sign him for less.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

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Offseason Outlook: Carolina Panthers

By | at February 23, 2015 7:38 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Charles Johnson, DE: $20,020,000
  2. Cam Newton, QB: $14,666,000
  3. Ryan Kalil, C: $11,795,000
  4. Thomas Davis, LB: $9,900,000
  5. Jonathan Stewart, RB: $8,300,000
  6. Greg Olsen, TE: $7,800,000
  7. DeAngelo Williams, RB: $6,333,333
  8. Luke Kuechly, LB: $4,002,283
  9. Mike Tolbert, RB: $3,425,000
  10. Graham Gano, K: $3,100,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 25 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

If you need further evidence that the NFC South was the worst division in the NFL last season, it’s this: the Panthers regressed in nearly every major statistical category from 2013 to 2014 — they fell from 10th to 20th in offensive DVOA, while moving No. 3 to No. 14 in in defensive DVOA — shaved five wins off their final record, and gave Derek AndCam Newtonerson two starts at quarterback…and still won the division.

Cam Newton started 14 games — missing Week 1 with a rib injury and Week 15 after being involved in a car accident — and completed 58.5% of his passes for for 3,127 yards an 18 touchdowns; he added another 539 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. It wasn’t a spectacular season, but Newton was playing behind an offensive line that had lost Jordan Gross and Travelle Wharton, and throwing to receiving corps that had witnessed the defections of Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell, and Ted Ginn Jr.

Similarly, Carolina’s defense had been ravaged by free agency, as Mike Mitchell, Captain Munnerlyn, and Drayton Florence all left the squad before 2014. Star defensive end Greg Hardy, who had 26 sacks in the two seasons prior, missed all but one game after being placed on the commissioner’s exempt list following a domestic violence incident. Somehow, though, the Panthers managed to earn a postseason berth despite winning only seven games, and even won a playoff game, defeating the Cardinals in the wild card round before succumbing to the Seahawks in the divisional round.

The Panthers have already begun to overhaul their roster in anticipation of the new league year next month. Today we learned that the club will release longtime running back DeAngelo Williams, a move which will actually cost the team cap space (unless he’s designated as a post-June 1 cut). Williams’ release comes on the heels of Carolina cutting veteran safety Thomas DeCoud last week.

Key Free Agents

Hardy is the clear No. 1 free agent on the Panthers’roster — charges against the 26-year-old were recently dismissed, but it still remains unlikely that he’ll return to Carolina. He played last season under the franchise tag, so the cost to use that tag on him for a second consecutive season would be exorbitant. Moreover, the Panthers seem opposed to retaining Hardy due to the headache he caused last season. While not speaking about Hardy directly, Carolina general manager Dave Gettleman recently asked “Who wants the ticking time bomb?” regarding players with off-the-field concerns.

Elsewhere on the defensive line, the Panthers have two veteran tackles — Dwan Edwards and Colin Cole — eligible for free agency. Both are older free agents (Edwards is 33, Cole 34), but each played in excess of 350 snaps in 2014; Edwards, specifically, saw nearly 600 snaps. Carolina might want to get younger at the position, but a club can never have too much depth up front. Perhaps the team will look to retain at least one of Edwards or Cole on a modest, one-year deal.

Following Gross’ retirement, Byron Bell emerged as the starter at left tackle, but his production was extremely disappointing. Per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required), Bell ranked as the second-worst tackle in the league, finishing ahead of only Falcons rookie Jake Matthews. Bell wasn’t as bad as the starting right tackle during the early portion of his career, but he was still well below-average. Offensive line figures to be an area the Panthers address either in free agency or the draft, and both Bell and team source indicated today that the 26-year-old won’t be retained.

On the other hand, Carolina should look to retain reserve interior lineman Fernando Velasco, who started seven games last season, seeing action at both guard positions. The 30-year-old Velasco is probably something close to a replacement level talent at this point, but he was an above-average starter as recently as 2012. The Panthers have young players — Amini Silatolu and Trai Turner — at the guard spots, so Velasco could add valuable experience as the backup both there and at center.

27-year-old tight end Ed Dickson landed with in Carolina on a one-year deal prior to 2014 after spending his entire career with the Ravens. He played 532 snaps as the No. 2 TE to Greg Olsen, but wasn’t a standout blocker and caught only 10 passes. Dickson has expressed interest in re-signing with the Panthers on a multi-year deal (a lofty goal), but the club can probably do better.

Possible Cap Casualties

The Panthers don’t have a ton of players who could be pushed off the roster due to salary cap concerns. The only obvious candidate for release might be RB/FB Mike Tolbert, who’s scheduled to count $3.425MM against the cap next season. The 29-year-old is entering the final season of his two-year deal, and Carolina could clear $2.425MM in space by releasing him. He saw just 226 snaps in 2014, but given that the club just cut Williams, Tolbert’s role figures to grow in 2015, making his release unlikely.

Releasing veterans Jerricho Cotchery and Roman Harper could give the Panthers a combined $3MM windfall (if both were post-June 1 cuts). But both saw an extended amount of playing time last season, and performed at a capable level, so cutting them probably doesn’t make sense.

Positions Of Need

Pending any further cost-cutting maneuvers, the Panthers should have roughly $15.65MM of cap space to work with as free agency approaches. It’s not a ton of room, but Gettleman indicated last month that the club wouldn’t have to shop at the “dollar store” this offseason, meaning they probably won’t need to target the bargain-bin type of free agents they have during the past two years (although I would note that many of those low-cost signings worked out rather well).

The No. 1 area of concern on the Panthers roster — offensive line — hasn’t changed since last year. Tackle, specifically, needs to be upgraded, with Bell unlikely to return and right tackle Nate Chandler also not showing improvement. Following King Dunlap‘s re-upping with the Chargers on Sunday, there aren’t many options on the left side. If Michael Roos decides to hold off on retirement, I wonder if the Panthers would pay a premium to land the veteran. Alternatively, Carolina could try for Bryan Bulaga, the top right tackle available, with the intention of moving him back to the left side, the position he played in college. Or, Carolina could sign Bulaga, Doug Free, or another solid right tackle, and pursue a LT upgrade with the No. 25 pick in the draft.

If it solves its problem at tackle, Carolina could then shift its focus to receiver. Kelvin Benjamin was a revelation in his rookie season, but the club could use another weapon opposite him. Luckily, the free agent market for WRs is flush with options. Jeremy Maclin might be a little out the Panthers’ price range, but Torrey Smith could be a viable target. Moving a little further down the list, Michael Crabtree could be signed with the hopes of bounce-back season, or perhaps Denarius Moore tries to restart his career in Carolina.

Assuming that Hardy leaves for greener pastures, the Panthers will also need help at defensive end. In terms of pure skill, Carolina might not find anyone with the talent level that Hardy brings to the table, but there are certainly other options out there. Brandon Graham was solid for the Eagles in 2014, but if reports of him demanding $20MM in guarantees are true, he’d probably be too spendy for the Panthers. If the club continues its strategy of signing seemingly over-the-hill veterans, I could see them adding Osi Umenyiora, who wasn’t great as a stand-up pass-rusher with the Falcons but could succeed if returned to a 4-3 DE role, or taking on a chance on a 35-year-old Dwight Freeney.

Corner could be another area of concern, although Josh Norman and Bene Benwikere played very well, especially near the end of last season. The free agent CB market is barren, so that’s an area that will probably be addressed via the draft instead. With the release of Williams, the Panthers might also look to bring in another back to complement Jonathan Stewart, who often deals with injury concerns. I doubt they’d spend any significant money on the position, but they could bring in someone like Daniel Thomas or Jacquizz Rodgers as a insurance option.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The most pressing issue in Carolina at the moment is the future of Newton, who is signed through only 2015 thanks to the Panthers exercising his fifth-year option; he’ll be paid $14.67MM during the upcoming season. Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer reported over the weekend that the Panthers and Newton’s reps were set to meet at the combine in Indianapolis to begin discussing an extension, but noted that Newton prefers to let Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson ink out long-term deals first, setting the market for QB deals.

Newton probably won’t see the type of cash that Luck and Wilson will — rather, he’ll probably shoot for an AAV in the $20MM range. He’s already made it clear that he isn’t interested in a Colin Kaepernick-esque contract structure, so it sounds like he’ll be aiming for some relatively large guarantees. The Panthers could use the franchise tag on Newton in 2016 (at a hefty price), but I’d expect the two sides to agree to a deal at some point.

2013 Defensive Player of the Year Luke Kuechly is probably the best inside linebacker in the league, and among the top five or 10 defensive players in the game. The Panthers have a fifth-year option on him that will keep him under contract for the 2016 season at a reasonable rate. But Carolina can now open extension talks with their 23-year-old defensive stalwart, and Kuechly should be able to top the $10MM average salary brought in by Patrick Willis, currently the top earner among inside ILBs.

Olsen will become a free agent at season’s end, at it make sense for the club to get something done with him, as well. With major departures at wide receiver, Olsen (along with Benjamin) became Newton’s primary target, hauling 84 passes for more than 1,000 and six scores. He’ll be 30 years old next month, so he’s not young, but he should still be able to secure a three- or four-year commitment, possibly in the $7-8MM per year range.

Finally, Carolina will probably need to take a look at the contract of veteran defensive end Charles Johnson before the season. The eight-year veteran is scheduled to count $20.02MM against the cap next season, the highest such figure among 4-3 defensive ends. He’s still an excellent player (PFF’s No. 11 4-3 DE), so he’s not a candidate for release, but the Panthers probably need to ask Johnson to restructure his deal, something he’s done in each of the prior two offseasons. He only has two years left on his current pact, which doesn’t leave much room for spreading out prorated bonus money. So instead of a simple restructure, Carolina might need to extend him, tacking on a few years to his contract to make the forthcoming cap hits more palatable.

Overall Outlook

To the casual fan, the Panthers are coming off a highly-successful two-year run during which they made the playoffs in both seasons. More tuned-in observers, however, realize that Carolina was extremely lucky to play in such a subpar division last season, and that there are still numerous holes on the current roster. Newton needs to be re-signed, but Gettleman and head coach Ron Rivera can’t rest until other areas on the team — tackle, receiver, defensive end — are addressed, as well.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Market For Edge Defenders

By | at February 23, 2015 4:53 pm

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to edge defenders — 3-4 outside linebackers and 4-3 defensive ends. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

Teams in search of pass rushers this offseason will focus on this group, but that doesn’t mean every player on this list excels at getting to the quarterback. Sheard has seen his sack total decrease every season, and Reed has never gotten to the quarterback more than six times, but both guys played well against the run in 2014. Morgan, meanwhile, was Pro Football Focus’ top-rated cover man among 3-4 outside linebackers last season (subscription required), and players like Pierre-Paul and Hughes are solid in every aspect of the game.

Still, in today’s NFL, few skills are valued more highly than an ability to pressure the quarterback, which is why someone like Houston – 2014’s sack leader – figures to land one of the biggest contracts of the offseason, assuming he doesn’t just play on a one-year franchise deal. Hughes and Pierre-Paul lead off the next tier behind Houston, and Hardy certainly hasn’t the talent to lead this group in sacks next season, though it’s still not clear if he’ll face a suspension from the NFL for off-field issues.

Graham, Morgan, and McPhee are among the most interesting names on this list. Graham and Morgan are former first-rounders who never quite fit with their current teams, and who never quite lived up to expectations, but PFF’s data suggests both players have been very productive when given the opportunity. McPhee is another pass-rushing specialist who played a limited role in Baltimore, but excelled in that role, and could draw interest this winter from teams who foresee him taking on more responsibilities on defense.

Of course, teams eyeing these players will have to consider their defensive scheme. Some of these guys will be able to fit in as a 4-3 defensive end or a 3-4 outside linebacker, but most of them are more comfortable playing either one or the other. It’s also worth taking into account the fact that the top players in this group won’t necessarily reach the open market — Houston and Pierre-Paul will likely be franchised, and Hughes is a candidate for the tag as well.

Other unrestricted options:

They won’t land big contracts, but veterans like Freeney, Harrison, and Umenyiora may be the most productive players in this group for the 2015 season. A club looking for a part-time specialist could certainly do worse than landing one of those veterans.

Still, there’s upside to be found here. English likely won’t develop into a regular contributor at this point, but fellow first-round picks Clayborn and Alualu could still be above-average players in the right situation. Moats was very good in part-time duty for the Steelers last season, and Johnson racked up 39 total quarterback pressures for the Lions (though his status remains up in the air — he may be a restricted free agent). Acho, Ayers, Schofield, and Spencer are also intriguing names, for a variety of reasons.

Most of the players in this group will be situational players, or backups, but none of them should be particularly expensive, and pairing a run-first defender with a part-time pass rusher could be an effective, cost-conscious way to get solid production on the edge, without splurging on one of the market’s top free agents.

Restricted FAs:

Shelby played 420 defensive snaps for the Dolphins, and was an effective run stopper for the team, so he looks like the best bet to receive a qualifying offer, out of these three players. If the Chiefs and Seahawks decide to re-sign Moses and Scruggs, respectively, it will likely be for a salary less than the minimum RFA tender.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

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Offseason Outlook: Jacksonville Jaguars

By | at February 22, 2015 3:29 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Paul Posluszny, LB: $9,500,000
  2. Marcedes Lewis, TE: $8,200,000
  3. Justin Blackmon, WR: $5,785,625
  4. Luke Joeckel, T: $5,782,254
  5. Zane Beadles, G: $5,000,000
  6. Sen’Derrick Marks, DT: $4,825,000
  7. Chris Clemons, DE: $4,750,000
  8. Blake Bortles, QB: $4,694,273
  9. Red Bryant, DE: $4,500,000
  10. Josh Scobee, K: $4,387,500

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 3 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

Ever since winning 11 games and earning a postseason berth in 2007, the Jaguars have been among the worst teams in the NFL, finishing with non-losing record just once (2010) and registering a 34-78 mark during that span. But there are reasons for optimism in Jacksonville, especially on the defensive side of the ball, where head coach Gus BradleyCecil Shorts and coordinator Bob Babich led a unit that finished 20th in DVOA (16th in weighted DVOA), and featured contributions from unheralded players like Sen’Derrick Marks and rookies such as Telvin Smith.

Most of the focus, however, was on the Jaguars’ offense, where rookie quarterback Blake Bortles led a cavalcade of other first-year players including receivers Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, and Marquise Lee. Bortles, the third overall pick in last year’s draft, was mostly disappointing, completing just 59.8% of his passes for 2,908 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions while rating as the worst QB in the league according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). But there’s hope that with another year of development from both Bortles and the receivers, improvements along the offensive line, and another good year from running back Denard Robinson, the offense (and the club as a whole) can take a step forward in 2015.

Key Free Agents

As a rebuilding team, the Jaguars have one the least-talented rosters in the NFL, and as such, there aren’t a ton of pending free agents who are considered must re-signs. The most notable name among the FA list is receiver Cecil Shorts, a four-year veteran who’s been among the most visible Jacksonville players in recent years. The 27-year-old is a solid possession receiver, but he had a down year in 2014, catching only 53 balls in 12 starts. He’s already been linked to other WR-needy teams such as the Browns, and given the Jaguars’ stable of young pass-catchers, I’d expect them to let Shorts walk.

On defense, former first-round pick Tyson Alualu is also headed for unrestricted free agency. He’s been something of a bust so far in his career; he only saw about 470 snaps last season and wasn’t effective when playing. The Jags have a nice rotation along the defensive line, and even if they want to add more players to their front five, they can look to free agency to do so. Alualu isn’t an integral part of the defense, so it doesn’t make sense to retain him.

Jacksonville also has a pair of linebackers — Geno Hayes and J.T. Thomas — eligible for the open market. The 27-year-old Hayes started 11 games last year, posting a +5.9 PFF grade on nearly 600 snaps. He should be re-signed on a short, low-cost deal. Thomas, on the other hand, shouldn’t return. On more than 700 snaps, the 2011 draftee registered a -14.8 PFF mark, performing especially poorly against the run.

One final free agent of note on defense is cornerback Alan Ball, who played in only seven games after tearing his biceps. He’ll be 30 years old when the season begins, but he’s a solid player, and if the club can bring him back on a modest contract, he could act as veteran insurance in a secondary filled with youngsters.

Possible Cap Casualties

Defensive lineman Chris Clemons was a high-profile signing for the Jaguars just last offeason, agreeing to a four-year deal worth $17.5MM. But despite his knowledge of Bradley’s scheme, he struggled immensely in 2014, grading as the second-worst 4-3 DE in the league per PFF. Jacksonville could save $4.75MM by releasing the 33-year-old, and wouldn’t accrue any dead money by doing so. The club might wait to see how their defensive line looks after free agency and the draft, and if they’ve made significant improvements, Clemons could be a goner.

Another veteran on defense, linebacker Paul Posluszny, missed most of the season with a pectoral injury. He’s due $9.5MM against the cap next yer, and the Jaguars could clear all but $2MM of that by cutting him. The 30-year-old is viewed as a team leader, however, and Bradley has indicated that “Poz” will return. Still, it doesn’t seem reasonable to pay an aging LB a base salary in excess of $7MM, especially one coming off an injury. Perhaps Jacksonville will ask Posluszny to take a pay cut, but if he declines, he could be cut.

On offense, tight end Marcedes Lewis is scheduled to have the second-highest cap hit on the team (behind Posluszny) at $8.2MM, an extremely high figure for a soon-to-be 31-year-old who caught just 18 balls in eight games. He’s heading into the final year of his deal — the Jaguars would clear $6.8MM by cutting him, leaving just $1.4MM in dead money. Elsewhere on the offensive side of the ball, running back Toby Gerhart is most likely on the outs. He was overtaken by Robinson, and won’t justify his $3MM cap hit.

One thing to be considered: the Jaguars have the most cap space in the league, with more than $64MM to play with. They don’t need any additional space, so if they want to retain the players listed above, they can, without it being detrimental to their financial situation. So someone like Posluszny, who might have some off-the-field or locker room value, is more likely to be retained in Jacksonville than he might be in other cities.

Positions Of Need

With that $64MM worth of cap space, the Jaguars are set up to spend on a free agent class that actually lines up well with some of their needs. Topping that list is pass-rusher, where the club could use one or even two big-name free agents. Any of the top edge guys could make sense, so I think the Jags could end up targeting one higher-priced FA and one mid-tier player. They have the financial room to sign, say, Jason Pierre-Paul, while also throwing a one-year dart on Brian Orakpo. Or they could target Jerry Hughes while also adding someone like Brandon Graham. There are any number of combinations that make sense for Jacksonville, but it must improve its pass rush.

The linebacking unit could also use an upgrade, especially if Posluszny doesn’t return. The Jaguars could take a look at David Harris, a solid veteran who could be a stabilizing presence on a young roster. Rolando McClain could also be a target — he’s had off-the-field trouble and could be facing another failed drug test, but with $64MM in cap room, perhaps he’s the kind of talented yet troubled player the Jags can afford to take a risk on. Malcolm Smith could also land in Jacksonville, as he’s familiar with Bradley from the duo’s time in Seattle.

In the back end, the Jags could use another safety to pair with Jonathan Cyprien. If the club wants a veteran leader in the secondary, Antrel Rolle could be a nice addition, but if they want to go younger, they could sign Rahim Moore away from the Broncos. Dawan Landry could also make a return to Jacksonville — he played for the team from 2011-12.

On offense, Jacksonville needs to add at least one offensive lineman. 2013 No. 2 overall pick Luke Joeckel has struggled since entering the league, but the team probably has to give him at least one more season to figure things out at left tackle. But on the right side, I could see the Jags targeting Bryan Bulaga, the No. 1 free agent RT available. The Packers like to retain their own free agents, but Jacksonville has the cap space to outbid them. Additionally, if the club wants to upgrade at center, Rodney Hudson would make sense if the Jags are willing to meet his reported $7MM per year demand. Alternatively, they could bring in the Raiders’ Stefan Wisniewski, who should be a bit cheaper.

The Jaguars have a good group of young pass-catchers, but given a) that they have so much money to throw around and b) the receiver class is loaded, I could see them adding a high-priced WR. They’d surely jump at the chance to add a Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant, but neither of them are likely to actually hit free agency. But Randall Cobb could be the perfect addition for the Jags. He’s only 24, so he’ll still be in his prime as the rest of the team progresses. Cobb is reportedly seeking a $9MM AAV, a fee Jacksonville could easily afford.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The Jaguars have a fifth-year option decision to make on receiver Justin Blackmon. The 25-year-old has only played in four games since 2013, but he’s reportedly making good progress towards reinstatement. But given his off-the-field trials, there’s no way the Jaguars can justify exercising his option.

Jacksonville doesn’t have a ton of extension candidates, but they could look to tack on a few years to Lewis’ deal in the hopes of bringing down his 2015 cap hit. It’s possible that the club will just release the tight end instead, but if they don’t, restructuring his deal could save the Jags some money.

Overall Outlook

The Jaguars need to take a step toward respectability in 2015, and a successful offseason could help the team head towards that goal. Armed with a ton of cap room and the No. 3 overall pick, Jacksonville should be able to make improvements in nearly every area it deems necessary. Adding a few pass rushers, and getting some line help and perhaps another weapon for Bortles, could be the first step in the surge toward a winning record.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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