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Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Bengals

February 15th, 2015 at 3:40pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. A.J. Green, WR: $10,176,000
  2. Leon Hall, CB: $9,600,000
  3. Andy Dalton, QB: $9,600,000
  4. Geno Atkins, DT: $9,000,000
  5. Andre Smith, T: $6,362,500
  6. Andrew Whitworth, T: $6,200,000
  7. Vontaze Burfict, LB: $5,175,000
  8. Carlos Dunlap, DE: $4,900,000
  9. Reggie Nelson, S: $4,775,000
  10. Domata Peko, DT: $3,700,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 21 overall pick
  • No traded draft picks

Other:

Overview

For the fourth straight season, the Bengals, head coach Marvin Lewis, and quarterback Andy Dalton finished better than .500 and earned a postseason berth. And for the fourth straight season, Cincinnati was eliminated in the wild card round, this time via a 26-10 loss to Andrew Luck and the Colts. As such, it’s hard to qualify the 2014 Bengals season as either a success or a failure — instead, Cincinnati seems to be stuck in some kind of middle ground, good enough to have a high floor, but flawed enough that they’ll never reach a higher ceiling.A.J. Green

Under new coordinator Hue Jackson, the Bengals’ offense never really took off — although the freshly-extended Dalton completed a career-high 64.2% of his passes, he still threw 17 interceptions against just 19 touchdowns, finishing as the 21st-best QB in the league per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). In his defense, Dalton didn’t have many options to throw to, as Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert combined to appear in one game, while A.J. Green, Jermaine Gresham, and Giovani Bernard missed significant time dealing with their own injuries. While rookie running back Jeremy Hill was a bright spot, rushing for more than 1,100 yards and nine touchdowns, the offense was below-average as a whole, finishing 21st in DVOA.

The more surprising regression occurred on defense, where the Paul Guenther-led unit fell from the No. 5 DVOA ranking in 2013 to 14th last season. Some of that fall could be attributed to the loss of former DC Mike Zimmer, who took the Vikings’ head coaching job, but injuries also plagued the defense. Star linebacker Vontaze Burfict dealt with numerous ailments throughout the year, and ultimately played in just five games. Defensive tackle Geno Atkins, dominant until tearing his ACL in 2013, never looked fully healthy. The unit also failed to generate any sort of pass rush, finishing last in the league with just 20 sacks.

Key Free Agents

The Bengals’ crop of pending free agents is primarily made up of role players, but there are three FAs who have been significant factors in recent years. Tight end Jermaine Gresham, a first-round selection in 2010, caught 62 passes for 460 yards and five touchdowns last year, but wasn’t a great blocker in either the pass or the run game. Reports at the end of the season indicated that teammates were upset with Gresham’s inability to play through pain, and while that might not factor into Cincinnati’s thinking, it doesn’t help his chances of being re-signed. He’s never been a great fit for the Cincinnati offense, and given that Eifert will look to take on a larger role in 2015, Gresham probably won’t return.

On the other hand, guard Clint Boling should be retained, as he’s started 44 games during the past three seasons, becoming a key cog on an excellent offensive line. The 2011 fourth-round pick finished as PFF’s No. 19 overall guard among 81 qualifiers, especially excelling in the run game. The Bengals tend to re-sign their own contributors who perform well, so Boling should be brought back on a multi-year pact, probably on a ~$4MM salary.

Linebacker Rey Maualuga is the third key free agent on the Bengals’ to-do list this offseason. He’s been consistently average during his career — nothing more, nothing less. But he’s solid against the run, knows the scheme after starting 84 games during his career, and has the ability to fill in at middle linebacker if Burfict is out. The 28-year-old might be allowed to test the market, but if he doesn’t find a deal in free agency, he’ll likely be back in the Queen City on a one-year deal.

Terence Newman‘s role had been diminished by the end of the season, and the 36-year-old would probably have to accept a role as the No. 4 CB to return in 2015. Marshall Newhouse struggled mightily while filling in for Andre Smith at right tackle, so much so that veteran Eric Winston was brought near the end of the year — the latter could be retained, but the former won’t be. Jason Campbell could be re-signed to compete with A.J. McCarron for the backup quarterback job, but receiver Brandon Tate will probably be let go as the Bengals search for a more dynamic return man.

Possible Cap Casualties

Two defensive line mainstays — Domata Peko and Robert Geathers — are overwhelmingly likely to be released in the coming weeks. The 30-year-old Peko started all 16 games in 2014 but was extremely ineffective, finishing as the second-worst defensive tackle in the league per PFF. Due to count $3.7MM against the cap next year, Peko won’t leave any dead money on the Bengal’s books when he’s cut. Geathers, meanwhile, has become nothing more than a rotational lineman after spending 11 years in Cincinnati, and the team will save $3.05MM by cutting him.

Receiver Greg Little will also probably be cut, but his release will save the Bengals just $745K. Cincinnati has managed its cap well in recent years, so there aren’t many veteran contracts that need to be dealt with to create financial space. Moreover, the club already has more than $34MM in projected cap space to work with, so cutting role players to save a few dollars wouldn’t move the needle much.

Positions Of Need

The Bengals do have several positions where an infusion of talent via free agent additions could be helpful, but a disclaimer must be noted. Like the Packers in the NFC, Cincinnati simply doesn’t spend on free agents, no matter how much cap space it has. In the late 2000s, the Bengals signed one major free agent per season: Antwan Odom in ’08, Laveranues Coles in ’09, and Antonio Bryant in ’10. Each of those signees was a major bust, and the Bengals have retreated from the open market ever since. They added role players like Nate Clements (2011) and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (2012), signed no free agents until late April in 2013, and added only veteran depth in the form of Newhouse and Danieal Manning prior to 2014.

This could be the year for the Bengals to dip their toe into free agency, however — armed with the aforementioned $34.63MM of cap space, Cincinnati could take advantage of a free agent class that is well-stocked with players at its positions of need. First and foremost is pass-rusher, where the Bengals need a viable starter to line up opposite Carlos Dunlap. Greg Hardy could be the perfect fit for the club’s 4-3 defense, and the Bengals have shown a willingness to deal with players with off-the-field issues in the past. The Panthers haven’t shown any interest in retaining Hardy, and even though charges against him were recently dismissed, he could face a depressed market due to his baggage. Jason Pierre-Paul, Jerry Hughes, and Brandon Graham could also present options at defensive end, but each will likely require a long-term deal with a hefty guarantee. More likely, Cincinnati will go bargain-hunting, meaning players like Derrick Morgan, Adrian Clayborn, or even Dwight Freeney could be on the table.

Help along the interior defensive line could be just as key to generating a pass rush, and if Peko and Geathers both go, defensive tackle could another area to target in free agency. Cincinnati won’t be players for the top DTs available like Ndamukong Suh, Terrance Knighton, or Nick Fairley. But someone like Henry Melton, who recently had his option declined by the Cowboys, could be a fit for the Bengals, as could Lions FA C.J. Mosley, who finished as the No. 26 DT per PFF after filling in for an injured Fairley.

Next up on Cincinnati’s to-do list should be tight end, where Gresham will likely leave via free agency, and Eifert will be question mark heading into his third season. ESPN.com’s Coley Harvey has pushed the idea of the Bengals signing Jordan Cameron, who would add a different dimension to Cincinnati’s offense. I like the fit, but Cincy probably won’t commit to a player with such injury history unless it’s on a one-year deal. I think Charles Clay would make some sense for the Bengals, but he would offer production similar to what the team hopes they can get from Eifert. More likely, the Bengals will add a strong blocking TE to replace Gresham, so Virgil Green or Matt Spaeth could be options.

The Bengals could also look to make an addition at either wide receiver or offensive tackle. At receiver, the team is stocked with a lot of talent in Green, Jones, and Mohamed Sanu, but as was clear when injuries struck last season, there isn’t much in the way of depth. None of the big-name pass-catcher make sense given that the club will likely be paying Green a large salary in due time, but reserves like Eddie Royal, Vincent Brown, or Leonard Hankerson could be intriguing adds. Along the front five, Harvey wrote yesterday that Winston will likely be back as the swing tackle, but if the Bengals want someone who can play the interior as well, a veteran such as Adam Snyder or Gabe Carimi could be in the cards.

I also expect the Bengals to make additions to shore up the linebacking corps, especially in the wake of Burfict’s lost 2014. Maualuga could be re-signed, but I’d guess the rest of the LB reinforcements will come through the draft.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The single most pressing issue on the Bengals’ table is the contract status of Green. Cincinnati exercised his fifth-year option for 2015, so the 26-year-old will play under a one-year, $10.176MM deal. As Paul Dehner Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently outlined, the Bengals could conceivably slap the franchise tag on Green in 2016 for a cost of ~$14MM, and then do so again in 2017 for approximately $16MM. Obviously, this isn’t the ideal situation, as the cap hits would be high, and Green would presumably be disgruntled. A long-term extension that pays Green like a true No. 1 receiver ($12-14MM AAV) would be best for both sides, but Green’s reps probably want to wait and see if Dez Bryant or Demaryius Thomas are able to reach free agency and break the bank, therefore setting a baseline for contract talks.

The Bengals have another crop of players under contract only through 2015, such as tackles Andrew Whitworth and Andre Smith and safeties George Iloka and Reggie Nelson. Whitworth will probably retire as a Bengal, so a deal to secure that future is in order, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Cincinnati lets Smith walk. Both safeties should garner new contracts, but I’d expect Iloka, who was quietly the 12th-best safety in the league per PFF, to be the priority.

Cincinnati will also have to decide on a pair of fifth-year options, as 2012 first-rounders Kevin Zeitler and Dre Kirkpatrick near the end of their rookie deals. Zeitler is a no-brainer to be exercised, as he’s been nothing but solid at right guard; he’s another candidate for a long-term extension. Kirkpatrick is more complicated — he played well late last season, but contributed next to nothing during his first two years in the league. The Bengals would love to have another season by which to gauge the 25-year-old corner, but as they don’t have that luxury, I’d guess they pick up his option and hope for the best.

Overall Outlook

To say the least, 2015 is an absolutely crucial season for the Bengals. If the club fails to win playoff game (or misses the postseason altogether), I’d expect owner Mike Brown & Co. to take a serious look at “blowing things up.” Lewis likely won’t stick around if the team loses in the first round once again, and even Dalton’s future would be uncertain, as 2016 marks the first year in which Cincinnati could release its quarterback and save money against the cap. For now, the Bengals need to lock up its star pass-catcher in Green, and look into long-term deals with the rest of its young core. As I noted, Cincinnati never plays the free agency game, but with so much on the line, it’s fair to wonder if this is the offseason where the Bengals spend some money on the open market.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Buffalo Bills

February 15th, 2015 at 1:15pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Mario Williams, DE: $19,400,000
  2. Marcell Dareus, DT: $8,060,000
  3. Eric Wood, C: $6,650,000
  4. Kyle Williams, DT: $6,400,000
  5. Leodis McKelvin, CB: $4,900,000
  6. Sammy Watkins, WR: $4,530,819
  7. Corey Graham, CB: $4,450,000
  8. Aaron Williams, S: $3,900,000
  9. Stephon Gilmore, CB: $3,844,957
  10. Kraig Urbik, G: $3,750,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

The Bills made strides in 2014, amassing their first nine-win output in a decade, but they extended their playoff drought to an NFL-worst 15 years and went another season with a subpar offense and no solution at quarterback.

Buffalo finished above .500 and placed second in the AFC East almost solely on the strength of its defense, which led the league in sacks (54) and was top five in turnovers, points allowed and yardage surrendered. That helped lead to a second overall mark in Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings.

Conversely, the Bills’ offense ended up toward the bottom half of the league in points (18th), yards (26th) and DVOA (26th). The unit was neither strong through the air nor on the ground, with journeyman quarterback Kyle Orton and a cadre of running backs producing to underwhelming degrees behind a porous line.Rex Ryan (Featured)

Coaching Changes:

The Bills’ offseason began in entropic fashion with the abrupt departure of head coach Doug Marrone, who went 15-17 in Buffalo in his two years there and then took advantage of a $4 million opt-out clause in his contract. That forced the Bills, led by new owners Terry and Kim Pegula, along with general manager Doug Whaley, to undertake their sixth head coaching search since 2000. After an arduous interview process, the Bills hired Rex Ryan, who coached the division-rival Jets from 2009-14 and went 46-50 with two playoff appearances.

Ryan’s first order of business was to replace Marrone’s much-maligned offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett. Ryan opted for Greg Roman, who held the same position with the 49ers from 2011-14. He then appointed Dennis Thurman to take over a defense that Jim Schwartz ran with great effectiveness last year. Thurman was on Ryan’s staff in New York during Ryan’s entire tenure with the Jets, and Thurman held the D-coordinator position there the previous two campaigns.

The defensive-minded Ryan and his cohort Thurman should acquit themselves well atop one of the league’s most talented stop units. Roman, however, will have his work cut out for him to improve an offense that has been mostly woeful the last decade and a half, and was the primary reason the Bills missed the postseason in 2014.

Positions Of Need:

Not surprisingly, the Bills’ biggest weaknesses lie on offense. Their main source of trouble is under center. Orton unexpectedly retired after the season, which means two-year veteran E.J. Manuel is currently the Bills’ No. 1 QB by default. Manuel, whom the Bills chose 16th overall in the 2013 draft, has disappointed so far and the team is expected to at least seek competition for him this offseason. The problem is that capable competition could be difficult to find.

Mark Sanchez is the preeminent free agent QB available, and he was Ryan’s starter in New York throughout the majority of the duo’s time there. However, the ex-USC star’s half-decade with the Jets was riddled with ignominy. The 28-year-old experienced mild success with the Eagles last season as Nick Foles‘ backup, but Sanchez’s history suggests he’s a poor starter. He and Ryan still have an amicable relationship, though, and when you combine that with the Bills’ dire QB situation, there’s a chance the two could reunite. Furthering the possibility is that the rest of the free agent class is even less appealing than Sanchez (Brian Hoyer, Jake Locker and Josh McCown lead the way), the Bills don’t have a first-round pick to find another signal-caller, and the trade market isn’t expected to bear much fruit.

Regardless of the path the Bills take at QB, it’s imperative they ameliorate an offensive line that was near the bottom last season. Pro Football Focus ranked the Bills’ O-line 30th overall in 2014, with particularly lousy grades going to right side starters Erik Pears (guard) and Seantrel Henderson (tackle). Left tackle Cordy Glenn and center Eric Wood will keep their jobs, and the newly-signed, controversial Richie Incognito is expected to take the reins at one of the guard spots adjacent to Wood. That still leaves two areas of clear concern (LG or RG and RT). The 49ers’ Mike Iupati will be the premier free agent guard available, and he’s surely familiar with Roman from the pair’s time in San Francisco. It would make sense for the Bills to court Iupati (or Orlando Franklin or Clint Boling, to name a couple more) and one of the right tackle upgrades set to hit the market, including Bryan Bulaga, Doug Free and Joe Barksdale.

Fixing the holes along the line will help Buffalo’s rushing attack, which finished 25th in the league in yardage last year, but there’s a chance that next season’s starting running back isn’t even on the roster. Although Fred Jackson has been a reliable producer for the Bills since 2007, he’s coming off the worst rushing season of his eight-year career and will turn 34 later this month. Jackson is the oldest back in the league and probably shouldn’t be viewed as any kind of a solution at this point. The same lack of confidence is applicable to teammates Anthony Dixon, who’s a short-yardage specialist and an adept special teamer, and Bryce Brown, who failed to impress in his first season with the Bills after they acquired him from the Eagles.

Whether the Bills go with some combination of Jackson, Dixon and Brown in 2015, try to re-sign free agent-to-be C.J. Spiller (who, like Jackson, is coming off his worst season) or bring in an outsider, they’re going to have to establish a running game. That’s something Ryan’s Jets and Roman’s 49ers did throughout their respective tenures, and, given the Bills’ imperfect QB situation, it’s something they’ll have to achieve again for Buffalo to have a playoff shot next season.

Defensively, the Bills’ needs are much less serious, although their No. 1 free agent – end Jerry Hughes – resides on that side of the ball. Hughes has accumulated 19.5 sacks during his two years as a Bill and has been an excellent complement to his fellow starting linemen, Pro Bowlers Mario Williams, Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus. Whaley has expressed interest in re-signing Hughes, according to the team’s official website, but there’s a chance Buffalo is averse to breaking the bank on him when it already has three outstanding D-linemen and various other positions to address. What’s more, the price to franchise tag Hughes will be steep (upward of $14MM, perhaps), and our own Luke Adams doesn’t expect the Bills to apply the tag to Hughes

If the Bills do sign a noteworthy defender and it’s not Hughes, two of Ryan’s ex-players are obvious candidates.

The first is Patriots cornerback Darrelle Revis. The 29-year-old spent four seasons under Ryan as a Jet, and ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweeted earlier this month that Ryan will try to lure Revis to Buffalo if he hits free agency. However, the Bills already have three able corners in Stephon Gilmore, Leodis McKelvin and Corey Graham. That trio helped the Bills’ defense finish last season ranked third overall in passing yardage allowed and sixth in interceptions. Revis is on another level than Gilmore, McKelvin and Graham, to be sure. Nevertheless, one has to wonder if he’s worth a mega-deal to a team that’s already sturdy against the pass – especially a team with so many offensive issues in need of attention.

The Bills could also explore signing linebacker David Harris, an eight-year Jet whom Ryan called “the most underrated player in the league” last June. Harris then proceeded to play a staggering 99% of defensive snaps for Ryan a season ago. With Ryan being a 3-4-oriented coach, the Bills will need another LB to join entrenched starters Kiko Alonso, Preston Brown and Nigel Bradham. It’s feasible, therefore, to imagine Ryan and Harris transferring their partnership from New York to Buffalo.

Key Free Agents:

The Bills are likely to lose some parts of last year’s defense to free agency. Hughes and two other starters (middle linebacker Brandon Spikes and strong safety Da’Norris Searcy) could end up on the market.

Spikes is known as a gifted run stopper who has difficulty against the pass, which explains why he played just 46.4% of Buffalo’s defensive snaps last season. Whether Spikes returns to Buffalo may depend on whether Ryan wants him to. Signing Harris would seal Spikes’ fate with the Bills and send him looking for work elsewhere.

Searcy had a respectable ’14, playing nearly 60% of snaps with 13 starts, 65 tackles and three interceptions. However, the Bills might view Searcy as expendable and save cap space by letting him walk and plugging in Duke Williams, who played almost half the team’s defensive snaps as a second-year man.

Offensively, aside from the aforementioned Spiller, the Bills aren’t in danger of losing anyone that recognizable. The team will surely move on from Pears after his dreadful season. Of more importance is the future of wide receiver Marcus Easley, a standout special teamer who helped the Bills finish top five in both kickoff and punt return yardage allowed last year. Easley’s play earned him a place on Pro Football Focus’ 2014 All-Pro special teams unit.

Possible Cap Casualties:

If the Bills cut guard Kraig Urbik, they’ll save $2.35MM on next season’s cap. That could happen, ESPN’s Mike Rodak tweeted recently. Another potential cap casualty is linebacker Keith Rivers, who played just 17.1% of defensive snaps last season. Releasing him by June 1 would give the Bills an extra $1.7MM of cap room.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions:

The Bills are conceivably a year from losing Dareus to free agency. The 331-pounder has emerged as a top-tier D-lineman since the Bills drafted him third overall in 2011. Over the last two years, Dareus has accrued 17.5 total sacks (including a career-best 10 last season), a pair of Pro Bowl bids and a First-Team All-Pro selection. He’ll make just over $8MM in the final year of his contract, and to retain him beyond then will cost the Bills a lot more. Dareus could be in line for a contract similar to the one the Buccaneers gave Gerald McCoy last October. McCoy signed a seven-year, $98MM pact with over $51MM in guarantees, the richest ever awarded to a D-tackle. When he signed, McCoy was a 26-year-old with two Pro Bowl nods and two All-Pro selections to his name. Dareus is of similar age (25 next month) and, like McCoy, highly accomplished.

Unfortunately for the Bills, Dareus isn’t their only impact lineman whose team-controlled status is nearing an end. Glenn, perhaps Buffalo’s foremost O-lineman, is also a season from free agency. Glenn was a bright spot on an abysmal line last season, according to Pro Football Focus – which gave him a positive rating – and has been both good and durable during his three-year career. The 25-year-old has appeared in 45 of a possible 48 regular-season games and started in all 45 of those contests. Glenn is not on Dareus’ level as a player and won’t be as expensive to retain, but the Bills aren’t in any position to let their young, effective left tackle depart anytime soon.

Along with Dareus and Glenn, Bradham is another up-and-comer on the Bills who’s closing in on free agency. Bradham is fresh off a breakout 2014 effort that saw him eclipse the 100-tackle plateau (104, to be exact) to go with 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception. As a result, Pro Football Focus named the ex-Florida State Seminole a reserve on its Pro Bowl team. Although Bradham, 25, is likely to be the least costly of the trio he makes up with Dareus and Glenn, he’s still a meaningful piece and his departure would hurt the Bills.

Less pressing than the statuses of Dareus, Glenn and Bradham is that of Gilmore. The Bills will have to decide by this May whether to pick up his fifth-year option for 2016. That option is the value of the highest-paid 25 players at the cornerback position, excluding the top three players. Barring something unforeseen, the team will likely exercise Gilmore’s option and keep its top corner in the fold for at least two more seasons.

Overall Outlook:

The bad news for Buffalo is that it’s unlikely to find anything resembling an answer at quarterback this offseason. That means a position that has vexed the Bills since Hall of Famer Jim Kelly retired in 1996 is likely to continue tormenting them in 2015. The good news is that the Bills are an above-average team with an above-average amount of cap room. If the Bills use that cap room shrewdly to augment the talent around their flawed QB (be it Manuel or someone else), and if Ryan and his staff prove superior to their predecessors, they could push for a playoff spot in 2015.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PFR Originals: 2/8/15 – 2/15/15

February 15th, 2015 at 11:51am CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • Luke Adams began examining the 2015 free agent market, starting with the offensive skill positions: quarterbacks (link), running backs (link), receivers (link), and tight ends (link).
  • Our Offseason Outlook series continued, with four more teams being covered. I looked at the Dolphins (link), Zach Links previewed the Giants (link) and the Cowboys (link), and Rob DiRe analyzed the Eagles (link).
  • Luke went over the options the Patriots have for cornerback Darrelle Revis, whose 2015 option (with a cap hit of $25MM) seems untenable.
  • Sam Robinson took a look at the free agent stock of Broncos TE Julius Thomas, who will be the top tight end available on the market. Check out the rest of our Free Agent Stock Watch series here.
  • Luke recapped all the major coaching changes of 2015.
  • PFR readers believe Brian Hoyer is the best free agent QB available, with Mark Sanchez finishing in a close second.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Eagles

February 14th, 2015 at 9:31pm CST by Rob DiRe

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. LeSean McCoy, RB: $11,950,000
  2. Trent Cole, OLB: $11,625,000
  3. Jason Peters, T: $9,050,000
  4. Cary Williams, CB: $8,166,668
  5. Connor Barwin, OLB: $7,000,000
  6. DeMeco Ryans, LB: $6,900,000
  7. Evan Mathis, G: $6,500,000
  8. Malcolm Jenkins, S: $5,666,666
  9. Lane Johnson, T: $5,414,483
  10. Todd Herremans, OL: $5,200,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • Chip Kelly awarded final say over all draft, roster decisions.

Draft:

  • No. 20 overall pick
  • Acquired a fourth-round pick from the 49ers (via the Bills) for Bryce Brown.

Other:

Overview

The Eagles are coming off a painful end to the season in which they finished 1-3 in their final four games, ending up with a 10-6 record and narrowly missing the playoffs after having control of the NFC East for most of the year. Those four losses all came with Mark Sanchez at the helm, after the team lost Nick Foles to a broken clavicle in early November, an injury that prematurely ended the starting quarterback’s season. While Sanchez had his moments and performed better than many backups would have fared, he was unable to keep the lead he was handed in the divisional race.

Jeremy MaclinChip Kelly‘s vaunted offensive attack was unable to hit the same marks it did in his first season as the head coach, when Foles became a dark horse MVP candidate behind his 27 touchdown to only two interceptions. The Eagles were able to move the ball behind a dangerous ground attack with LeSean McCoy and a superb offensive line.

This past season, however, the offensive line dealt with injuries and suspensions, and was never able to line up its best five guys and really get a flow running the football. McCoy still ran his way into the Pro Bowl, but Eagles fans saw it as a slow burn instead of the highlight reel on loop that it had been in 2013.

One of last year’s best trades brought in Darren Sproles, who did provide some spark to both the offense and the special teams units. The Eagles’ struggles on offense were mitigated by touchdowns by the defense and special teams, but all those wins without a playoff appearance could keep the team from drafting the one player it might need the most in order to take the next step into a Super Bowl contender.

Transfer of Power

Since the regular season ended, the biggest story surrounding the Eagles has been the club’s front office shakeup. Kelly has been given a more authoritative role over the roster, while former general manager Howie Roseman has reportedly maintained control over contract negotiations and cap management. So far, this new setup has created more confusion than anything.

The new power structure will ensure that Kelly will be able to have more of an imprint on the on-the-field product. Without anyone to answer to, he will be able to pursue players to fit his system through the draft and free agency, with less push-back or resistance from his front office.

Kelly has already made a habit of adding former Oregon Ducks to his Eagles’ roster, but with full control it would be difficult to imagine someone with vision for the team such as Kelly’s not immediately pushing this roster forward, especially on offense, in order to run the offense exactly the way he wants.

Quarterback Situation

The first thing the Eagles need to address is their quarterback position. Nick Foles was sensational in 2013, but the combination of him and Sanchez this past year was adequate at best. Kelly is not running a defense-first team that can survive inconsistent quarterback play, so that will have to improve going forward.

Sanchez faded down the stretch, likely putting him out of the running for the job. The seemingly obvious solution would be to move forward with Foles, and chalk up a failed 2014 campaign to his injury. That would be a dangerous presumption. Foles turned the ball over 13 times in eight games, and struggled moving the football down the field. He also graded out extremely poorly according to Pro Football Focus, coming up behind the likes of Charlie Whitehurst, Zach Mettenberger, Mike Glennon, and Kirk Cousins (subscription required).

Of course, the top free agent passer is generally considered to be either Sanchez or Brian Hoyer. Sanchez performed worse than Foles, and doesn’t have a recent Pro Bowl season to his name, and Hoyer graded out considerably worse than Foles — the Browns signal-caller was among the worst in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.

The wild card here is the NFL Draft, where Jameis Winston is ascending as the likely number one overall pick. The quarterback he passed to get there is former Oregon Duck Marcus Mariota, who is watching his stock slip a little as the weeks go by.

The Jets are currently slated to take Mariota with the sixth pick, according to ESPN Draft Expert Todd McShay (Insider-only article). The Eagles select at No. 20, but Kelly may be hoping to have a shot to draft his former star. Moving up from 20th to first or second is probably out of the question, and even moving up to sixth is unlikely. However, if Kelly is sold on Mariota, there must be a place where he feels comfortable moving up to get the Heisman winner should he continue to fall.

Last year, Teddy Bridgewater went from possible top-three pick to the end of the first round where the Vikings traded up to select him. I don’t imagine that happening again, even if Mariota continues to fall out of favor with NFL evaluators. Even falling to No. 20 is very unlikely, as the fit with the Eagles is too obvious and any other team interested would be smart enough to try to work a deal to move up ahead of the Eagles to select him.

Kelly might not think Mariota is the perfect fit for the NFL version of his up-tempo attack, but Foles, Sanchez, and Hoyer are probably more likely to disappoint than they are to put up the points that Kelly is looking for from his offense.

Positions Of Need

Other than quarterback, which is always the number one position of need for teams that don’t feel they have the right guy, the Eagles’ biggest need is at cornerback, where the team is in desperate need of an upgrade. During their 1-3 finish, the Eagles repeatedly got burned in one-on-one coverage on the outside – giving up notably large performances to Dez Bryant, Doug Baldwin, DeSean Jackson, and Odell Beckham Jr. – and the club’s corners struggled in many other games this season.

If the team is insistent on running an aggressive defense, it will require better players on the outside. Darrelle Revis seems like a lock to return to the Patriots, and Byron Maxwell might not represent the type of athlete the Eagles need for their style of defense. Brandon Flowers also struggled in the Chiefs’ man-to-man heavy defense before being cut and restoring his value in San Diego.

Among corners that are better fits, Kareem Jackson could potentially handle the scheme, although he has been inconsistent in Houston. Antonio Cromartie is also a modicum of inconsistency, but he has a lot of experience being on an island and has had more good days than bad recently.

One interesting option is Packers free agent Tramon Williams, who was last seen getting burned for a game-winning, one-on-one touchdown to Jermaine Kearse. Williams will likely not be re-signed by the Packers as a 32-year-old corner. He still has some cover skills, and on a short-term deal, could be effective. Chris Culliver and Davon House could be additional options for Philadelphia, though neither would be considered a surefire fix at the position.

The team could also use an upgrade at safety, although veteran options are far and few between there as well. If Antrel Rolle or Troy Polamalu hits free agency, both could be stop-gap solutions for the Eagles in 2015. The team will also have an opportunity to look at defensive backs with their first-round pick, with a number of corners and/or safeties likely to be available. Landon Collins of Alabama could be one star player that may fall to the Eagles at that No. 20 spot.

Key Free Agents

The Eagles’ most important free agent is Jeremy Maclin, who bet on himself with a one-year contract last season. That bet paid off to the tune of 85 catches, 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns. Maclin is now in line for a very big long-term contract with plenty of guaranteed money. Our own Luke Adams noted that it wouldn’t make sense for Maclin to sign his extension just yet — with franchise tags ready to be passed out, Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant could be off the market by the time free agency opens. That would make Maclin’s best competition Randall Cobb, and could leave him as the most sought-after free agent at his position.

The only other major free agent worth keeping is edge rusher Brandon Graham. Graham never quite fit into the Eagles’ plans under Kelly’s regime. Graham would be a cleaner fit for a 4-3 defense where he could line up with one hand in the dirt. Despite high production, he has appeared in less than 1,300 snaps over the past three seasons. In 435 snaps in 2012, he ranked as the second-best defensive end in the league according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He graded positively again in 331 snaps in 2013 while transitioning to a 3-4 outside linebacker, and his 524 snaps in 2014 he rated out as the third-best player at his position. Graham will likely look for a big pay raise with more opportunity, and the Eagles might think it is better to let him go and groom underwhelming 2014 first-round pick Marcus Smith for a larger role on the defense.

The team will likely allow Nate Allen, Bradley Fletcher, Sanchez, and Brad Smith leave in free agency, or bring them back on short-term deals with little guaranteed money.

Possible Cap Casualties

Cary Williams‘ middling performance and the struggles in the secondary as a whole would be enough to consider moving on from the Super-Bowl-winning cornerback, and a cap hit of more than $8.16MM for 2015 will only make that decision easier. Cutting Williams would save $6.5MM on the cap, according to OverTheCap.com.

A tougher decision for the Eagles will be Trent Cole, who has been a stalwart of the team’s defense for years, and remains productive. A pass-rushing expert, Cole has been a premier – if underrated – contributor for his entire career as an Eagle. His 85.5 career sacks puts him just outside the top 10 for active players, and place him second in franchise history. However, releasing Cole this offseason would result in cap savings of $8.425MM in 2015, followed by savings of $11MM and $14MM the next two years. If the team still wants to keep him, a restructure might be a possibility for Cole, who has expressed interest in playing his entire career with the team.

DeMeco Ryans tore his Achilles tendon and missed most of the 2014 campaign, leaving Kelly to call him the “Mufasa” of the team’s defense. Whether or not that reference was used properly, there is no doubt that Ryans was a leader on the team and that his absence would be felt. The team will likely want him back in 2015, but a $6.9MM cap hit may be too high for an inside linebacker coming off a serious injury.

Finally, LeSean McCoy is the rare running back who holds the highest cap number on his team’s books. Not many would argue that he’s not deserving of being one of the highest-paid players at his position, but even still, a cap hit approaching $12MM leaves restructuring a possibility.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The Eagles will likely point to Fletcher Cox as a top priority this offseason. He graded out as a top five 3-4 defensive end in 2014 according to Pro Football Focus, alongside such names as J.J. Watt, Muhammad Wilkerson, Calais Campbell, and Sheldon Richardson. The team will almost certainly exercise its fifth-year option on Cox, but a long-term extension would be ideal.

Foles believes he should return as the starter in 2015, and if the Eagles agree, then an extension seems like a possibility. However, it’s not clear if the team is sold on the idea of Foles as its quarterback of the future. If he becomes available via trade, there will likely be potential suitors who believe in his abilities. The Eagles may covet a passer like Mariota, or another player more dynamic than Foles.

Overall Outlook

The Eagles are coming off a 10-win season that saw them narrowly miss the playoffs, and 2015 will likely represent a crossroads for Kelly’s regime. The club was able to stay afloat with the duo of Foles and Sanchez, but that shouldn’t mask the fact that the quarterback situation needs to be addressed. Of course, with the 20th pick in the draft and a lack of options in free agency, it will be extremely difficult to upgrade that spot. The dream would be Mariota falling, but that might just be a storyline that brings the city of Philadelphia false hope. A secondary option such as Brett Hundley far from guarantees an upgrade over Foles, now or in the future.

A more realistic spot to make significant upgrades is in the secondary, which held the entire defense back in 2014. Unfortunately for Eagles’ fans, the market for corners and safeties isn’t great this year after or Revis and Devin McCourty, who may not even become available. Players like Cromartie and Tramon Williams, or Byron Maxwell, Chris Culliver, and Davon House could be improvements, but adding one or two of those guys probably wouldn’t make the Eagles’ defense one of the top units in the league.

Coach Kelly will try his best to keep his team at double-digit wins and in the playoff hunt for a third straight year, but if he cannot return Foles to his 2013 form or find a better option, Kelly will have a hard time sustaining his early success over the long term.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Julius Thomas

February 14th, 2015 at 4:17pm CST by Sam Robinson

One of the more rapid rising stars in the game, Julius Thomas presents an interesting case in his first foray into free agency. The two-year starting tight end made next to no impact in his first and second seasons, hampered by lingering ankle maladies. But his ensuing two slates create a robust market for the athletic, yet frequently unavailable target.

Does Thomas’ value lie in being an athletic tight end with elite ball skills, a package the Broncos haven’t unleashed since Shannon Sharpe, who played under then-offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak for most of the latter half of his career? Or is he an injury-prone Peyton Manning product? Since the 26-year-old Thomas morphed into a red zone dynamo, with 12 touchdown receptions in each of the past two seasons, and has positioned himself as this market’s top tight end, teams will bid big to find out.Julius Thomas

But the best offer for the 2011 fourth-round pick might not come from the Broncos. Now transitioning back to Kubiak’s offense, which relies heavily on tight ends blocking and not splitting out wide as much, with multiple other dominant free agents to take care of — including Demaryius Thomas and Terrance Knighton — Denver may not be able to afford Julius Thomas’ services. He may not even be in large font on the Broncos’ offseason itinerary considering the scheme change and the numerous ancillary free agents from their 2011 draft class, which is easily the best under fifth-year GM John Elway‘s watch.

Undrafted Pro Bowl cornerback Chris Harris re-upped for 5 years and $42.5MM, and first-rounder Von Miller will play out his fifth-year option on a $9.7MM cap number next season from that class. But Thomas, left guard Orlando Franklin and free safety Rahim Moore (second round), middle linebacker Nate Irving (third) and in-line tight end Virgil Green (sixth) are all free agents who played key roles last season.

Thomas, who played for just $645K last year, has understandably been lukewarm to the idea of a hometown discount, something to which Demaryius Thomas and Knighton have been receptive. With Demaryius Thomas likely to be slapped with the franchise tag, as we discussed Tuesday, the Broncos will need to reach a long-term contract with Julius Thomas to keep him around. Even though Elway reiterated his desire to keep Julius Thomas in Denver in January, per Nicki Jhabvala of the Post, the former Big Sky basketball standout already turned down a deal that would’ve made him one of the league’s top four highest-paid tight ends, a source told Kils in October. With a projected $26MM+ in cap space and more than a third of their starters unsigned, the Broncos likely won’t bring back all of their top three free agents and may be stuck with just one after franchising Demaryius Thomas, should Knighton also receive a strong offer considering his career metamorphosis the past two years.

The case for the Broncos bringing back Julius Thomas depends on which version of Manning they think they’re getting back. The future Hall of Fame quarterback has inflated the numbers for plenty of pass-catchers over the past 18 years, but assuming he returns for his age-39 season — this probably will be the case after the QB iterated his desire to return Friday night — he will need as much firepower as possible to keep the Broncos on their current course. Thomas’ reputation as a bigger wide receiver who is ill-equipped for Kubiak’s system may not be entirely accurate, either. The 6-foot-4, 251-pound Division I-FCS product improved from 2013 when Pro Football Focus (subscription required) tabbed him as the NFL’s second-worst run-blocking tight end to last season when the site gave Thomas a positive grade and slotted him at No. 33 in the category — just two spots behind Rob Gronkowski.

Former Broncos head coach John Fox and OC Adam Gase in a way validated Thomas’ market value by orchestrating a dramatic overhaul of the offense — to a C.J. Anderson-heavy ground approach — the week after Thomas encountered ankle turmoil for the fourth straight season. Not that there weren’t additional factors in Manning’s decline in the season’s second half, but the Broncos’ offense didn’t look the same without its top touchdown target. Without Thomas at full strength, a level he didn’t return to after his latest injury, Manning had just two games with a quarterback rating over 86 — against the Dolphins and Chargers, respectively. This precipitous fall came after Manning (22 TD passes and just three interceptions in the Broncos’ first seven games) charted just one game under 110 in a stretch that wasn’t a bad imitation of his 2013 MVP effort. Thomas had nine TD grabs during Denver’s peak span and three multi-score showings.

The case against re-signing Thomas hinges on what the Broncos do with Knighton, how much they want to invest in the aforementioned 2011 draft class, how much money they allocate to reshape their offensive line and, perhaps most importantly, whether they feel the tight end’s availability justifies his likely high re-up price. As TheMMQB’s Peter King summarized last year, Thomas considered giving up football after a persistent ankle injury he sustained in 2011 dogged him throughout his first two seasons. Overall, ankle problems forced him to miss 28 games in four years. But teams with shaky tight end outlooks — the Raiders, Cardinals and Browns, to name a few — likely won’t have as much of an issue with Thomas’ negatives, considering a player with these numbers rarely reaches free agency.

If Jared Cook and Kyle Rudolph could ink $7MM-per-year deals within the last couple years — Cook as a free agent with production nowhere near Thomas’ — Thomas has a good chance to earn top-five money at the position. That top five currently ends with Rudolph and starts with Jimmy Graham‘s $10MM-per-year contract signed last year, per OverTheCap.com.

Re-signing Green ($645K in his fourth season last year) or someone like Dolphins free agent Charles Clay makes sense if the Broncos don’t want to meet Thomas’ salary wishes, but for a team whose title window depends heavily on the success of an aging quarterback with fading arm strength, it might be prudent to keep his main weapons around — especially the one who is Manning’s preferred option to finish off drives. The cap math adds up better for the Broncos if Manning renegotiates his salary — something we learned on Friday he could be willing to do — which is set for $19MM and a $21.5MM cap hit.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Market For Tight Ends

February 13th, 2015 at 10:27am CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to tight ends. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

Coming into the 2014 season, Cameron and Clay looked like potential top-10 tight ends in the NFL, but both players took a step back over the last few months. Cameron’s drop-off was particularly precipitous, due in part to concussion problems — the Browns tight end caught just 24 passes after racking up 80 receptions in 2013. Still, both players have proven they’re capable of being reliable pass-catchers, so I expect we’ll see them draw plenty of interest from teams that can’t afford Thomas.

Thomas, of course, is the crown jewel of this year’s free agent class, and while he’d be a lock to be franchised by many teams, the Broncos may not have the flexibility to make such a move, since they’ll likely to have to use that tag on Demaryius Thomas. Battling injuries himself down the stretch, the Denver tight end might have seen his stock dip a little after coming out of the gates on fire in 2014, but he should still easily land the biggest contract this winter of any player at the position — a top-five TE salary is definitely within reach.

As for Gresham and Paul, their career arcs look quite different thus far, though they find themselves in similar situations this offseason. Gresham has always put up solid receiving numbers for the Bengals, but has never fully fit in Cincinnati, especially with the team looking to give Tyler Eifert a larger role in the offense. Paul, meanwhile, was nonexistent in Washington’s passing game until 2014, when he broke out with 39 catches and 507 yards. With Jordan Reed still under contract in D.C., Paul may be the odd man out.

Other unrestricted options:

Clubs looking for a pass catcher at tight end should focus primarily on those players in the first group, because there aren’t many here that could be relied upon for consistent production. Still, TE is a position at which pass-catching isn’t necessarily the be-all, end-all to being an effective player, and several of the guys in this group can contribute positive value even without running routes.

According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Fells, Green, Pascoe, and Spaeth all graded among the league’s best run blockers at the position. In fact, buoyed primarily by their strong run-blocking performances, Fells, Green, and Spaeth all ranked among PFF’s top 20 tight ends, placing well ahead of notable receiving TEs such as Heath Miller, Antonio Gates, and Coby Fleener. A club may not want to head into the 2014 season with Fells atop its depth chart at the position, but he’s certainly a respectable No. 2 option.

2015 may also be the last chance for Finley to make a comeback — having missed the better part of the last two seasons due to neck issues, the former Packers tight end may simply decide to call it a career and try to collect on his insurance policy. However, if he’s cleared by doctors to return to the field, I’d expect him to try to catch on with another team this year, and if he can prove he’s healthy, his upside should intrigue suitors.

Restricted FAs:

Considering these three players have combined for 32 career receptions, I don’t expect the bidding on their services to be all that competitive this offseason. It would be a surprise if any of them even received a restricted free agent tender from their current clubs, though they could still return to those teams at a lesser salary.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

Offseason Outlook: Dallas Cowboys

February 12th, 2015 at 6:07pm CST by Zachary Links

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Tony Romo, QB: $27,773,000
  2. Tyron Smith, T: $13,039,000
  3. Brandon Carr, CB: $12,717,000
  4. Henry Melton, DT: $9,250,250
  5. Jason Witten, TE: $8,512,000
  6. Sean Lee, LB: $5,450,000
  7. Morris Claiborne, CB: $5,175,069
  8. Orlando Scandrick, CB: $4,351,250
  9. Barry Church, S: $3,250,000
  10. Mackenzy Bernadeau, G: $2,824,168

Notable coaching moves:

Draft:

Other:

Overview

As a youngster, did you grow up dreaming of becoming a right tackle? Is there a Fathead replica of your team’s starting left guard overlooking your couch? No, offensive lineman aren’t celebrated as much as the players at skill positions, but we all know how vital the o-line really is. After years of building the unit, the Cowboys’ offensive line helped propel them to the top of the NFC East.

Tony Romo, who has had his ups and downs in recent years, finished the year as the No. 6 quarterback in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). DeMarco Murray took advantage of those truck-sized holes created by the o-line and rushed his way to a career year. Dez Bryant cemented himself as one of the very best (if not the best) receivers in the NFL, lighting up opposing cornerbacks on a weekly basis. Meanwhile, the defense went from last in the league in 2013 to 19th overall in 2014 – not exactly the 1985 Bears, but a step up from being the “-Allas” Cowboys.

The Cowboys have reason to believe in 2015, but their electric offensive duo is eligible for free agency and there are numerous holes to address.

Positions Of Need

The Cowboys’ needs will depend heavily on what happens with Bryant and Murray and, by all accounts, the wide receiver is far more likely to return to the Cowboys than the running back. If Murray is not retained (we’ll discuss his situation in depth in a bit), there are a number of options that Dallas can turn to. It’s been long rumored that Jerry Jones would love to land Texas native Adrian Peterson. In fact, the two chatted over the summer and reportedly discussed the possibility.

“Well, I understand, Adrian,” Jones said. “I’d like that, too … Well, I love your story. I love your daddy’s story. I’ve always respected what you’ve been about. I’ve always been a fan of yours.”

Peterson would later downplay the sweet nothings whispered between the two but the mutual interest is abundantly clear. The Vikings, meanwhile, hold the cards and they could still push for 100 cents on the dollar in spite of AD’s off-field troubles from last year. Or, they might not be willing to discuss Peterson at all with Dallas. The last time these two franchises consummated a deal involving a franchise running back, the Cowboys came out ahead by a mile.

Alternatively, the Cowboys could turn to the draft for their next starting tailback. Georgia star Todd Gurley once seemed destined to be a top pick, but his 2014 ACL injury could put him within range for Dallas later in the first round. Beyond Gurley, Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon and Indiana’s Tevin Coleman are among the best backs on the board and both have drawn comparisons to Murray for their running style. In free agency, Dallas will find notables like Mark Ingram and the oft-injured Ryan Mathews. Ingram, of course, had a breakout season with the Saints in 2014 that was derailed a bit in the middle by a broken hand.

It sure doesn’t sound like the Cowboys will have to replace Bryant, but if they do, guys like Randall Cobb, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Brandon Marshall, Michael Crabtree, Mike Wallace, and more could be available on the open market. At this point, if Dallas does anything at wide receiver, it seems more likely that they would look into supporting players with Cole Beasley (restricted) and Dwayne Harris (unrestricted) in limbo.

On the other side of the ball, Dallas could have a ton of work to do with defensive linemen Nick Hayden, Anthony Spencer, and George Selvie all out-of-contract. Meanwhile, if Henry Melton remains on the roster through the first day of the 2015 league year, a three-year extension worth $8MM annually and $9MM guaranteed will kick in. Melton appeared to be a mortal lock to remain under that contract at one point last season, but finishing the season on IR has thrown that in flux.

Bruce Carter, Justin Durant, and Rolando McClain are all headed towards free agency, which could lead the Cowboys to go shopping for linebackers. Cornerback could also be a need for the Cowboys if Brandon Carr isn’t willing to restructure his deal.

Key Free Agents

Re-signing Bryant will be the Cowboys’ No. 1 priority this offseason. While there was a good amount of dialogue between the wide receiver and owner Jerry Jones, Bryant ultimately didn’t get an offer he liked enough during the season as he opted to gamble on himself. That bet paid off big time as Bryant turned in a career year with 88 receptions, 1,320 yards, and 16 touchdowns. Needless to say, keeping Bryant for the long-term won’t be cheap, and that means that the franchise tag is a distinct possibility. At an estimated $13MM, the franchise tag isn’t a drop in the bucket either, but Jones won’t hesitate to do it if the two sides can’t come to an agreement on a new deal. Of course, the very threat of the franchise tag could light a fire underneath Bryant’s camp.

Jerry loves his stars, but he’s apparently gun-shy about giving Bryant a big long-term deal because of his off-field issues. Bryant’s reps will likely seek a deal worth $12-14MM in average annual value, making the franchise tag something of a no-brainer. The Cowboys could be persuaded into making a multiyear pact happen if they get a break in guaranteed dollars, but I don’t think they’ll mind Bryant playing for his money once again.

Unfortunately, the game of football isn’t as fair to running backs. Murray also turned in a career year, but at this time it doesn’t sound like the Cowboys are willing to shell out big bucks to keep him. Recently, Jason Cole of Bleacher Report heard from sources that the reigning offensive player of the year should command between $7-10MM annually on a new deal. Meanwhile, a report from Ian Rapoport of NFL.com indicated that Dallas’ latest offer came in at about $4MM per season. There’s one heck of a bridge to gap between Murray and Dallas and the Cowboys might not be willing to meet him halfway. Still, Murray put on a ton of miles in 2014 and his fumbling issues were troubling and it’s possible that his market won’t be as hot as he expects.

On the offensive line, Dallas will have to figure out what to do at right tackle with both Doug Free and Jermey Parnell eligible for free agency. Free was ticketed to be the starter in 2014, but injuries mucked with those plans, opening the door for Parnell. The Cowboys would love to keep both, but that might not make budgetary sense for the team. If Free’s foot and ankle troubles appear to be behind him, it wouldn’t surprising to see him return while Parnell gets signed to be someone else’s starter.

Even though Dallas has serious uncertainty when it comes to its linebacking troupe, the club at least has the flexibility of Anthony Hitchens and can plug him in at any spot necessary. Still, in a perfect world, Dallas would retain McClain and put him in the middle, allowing Hitchens and the returning Sean Lee to take care of the outside spots. It seemed unlikely at the time he was acquired from the Ravens, but McClain turned out to be a rock for the Cowboys in the face of Lee’s season-ending injury. Keeping both Durant and Carter would be a solid play by the Cowboys but with Carter’s measurables, it’s not hard to see another team swooping in and paying more than Dallas would be comfortable with.

Possible Cap Casualties

With a cap hit north of $12.7MM, Carr will be out of Dallas unless he is willing to take a pay cut. Back in January, Jones made it clear that he’s not interested in a restructuring and instead wants a salary reduction.

“There’s an issue of going and borrowing some money, borrowing it in the sense of hedging, taking money from future years,” Jones said. “There’s an issue there. Carr played well this year and I’m not as critical of Carr as others. But that’s a lot of money. One thing that we just got to do is we’ve got to make sure that every way we can, we get the value for the money.”

Releasing Carr outright would save the Cowboys $8MM against the cap in 2015 but it would leave them with a $7.4MM burden the following year. Moving on from Carr would be doubly difficult since Morris Claiborne, another underachiever, is not guaranteed to be ready for the start of the 2015 season thanks to his torn patella tendon. It seems like a pay cut, even if it’s a modest one, would be in the best interest of both parties.

The Cowboys would probably like to welcome Melton back for another season but they’ll probably look to work out a new deal. A new contract for the 28-year-old defensive tackle would probably call for a big drop in guaranteed money with a reduced average annual value as well. Melton finished the year as the 14th ranked defensive tackle in the entire NFL, according to Pro Football Focus.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

Romo’s contract calls for a $27.77MM cap hit in 2015, before dipping to $17.64MM in 2016. Jones, as we mentioned when talking about Carr, is wary of shifting financial burden into future years to clear up the current cap situation. However, it’s hard to see Dallas really sticking to that plan considering the work that needs to be done this offseason. The Cowboys have a limited window to win with Romo under center and there’s no real succession plan in place for the 34-year-old (35 in April). Of course, at Romo’s age, an extension is probably off the table.

Recently, Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap looked at the Cowboys options when it comes to a possible restructuring for Romo and he found that there were two viable solutions. The first would be a restructuring where $7MM is converted into a signing bonus, rather than the maximum allowable figure of $16.03MM. That would create $5.6MM in cap space with a workable $14.2MM in dead money in 2017. Alternatively, Fitzgerald suggests that Dallas could take away from Romo’s massive 2015 base salary and shift that money over to the following year, where his current base is just $8.5MM.

Overall Outlook

After capturing their first NFC East title since 2009, it finally appears that things are falling into place for the Cowboys. In order to repeat, however, they’ll have to find a way to keep their needle-movers without compromising too much for future seasons.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Market For Wide Receivers

February 12th, 2015 at 8:54am CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to wide receivers. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

No other position has the same sort of star power at the top as this year’s free agent group of receivers does. In fact, in our last installment of 2015’s free agent power rankings, four of our top eight players were wideouts, with Bryant, Thomas, Maclin, and Cobb all making the cut.

Still, it’s probably fair to assume that Bryant and Thomas, at least, won’t reach the open market. Their respective teams have the franchise tag at their disposal, and intend to use it if a long-term agreement can’t be reached. Maclin and Cobb, on the other hand, may not warrant a tag, so they’ll be worth watching as free agency nears. If they make it to the open market, long-term deals worth $10MM+ annually aren’t out of the question, considering how many receiver-needy teams have cap room to spare.

While those four players are probably in a tier of their own, Smith isn’t far behind, and Crabtree is only two years removed from an 1,100-yard season. The rest of the list is a mix of reliable veterans (Royal, Washington, Wayne), and players with some upside (Britt, Nicks, Shorts), though teams likely won’t want to make too significant an investment on a guy from either of those groups.

Other unrestricted options:

You could make the case that Welker should be in the top tier of free agent wideouts this offseason, but his history of head injuries, combined with declining production, has him mulling the possibility of retirement, and I don’t think he’s the same guy he was even two or three seasons ago. Nonetheless, he’s one of the more intriguing names among this group, which features a number of players who are either past their primes or have yet to fully realize theirs.

If you’re looking for a player with some upside here, you could do worse than the two Raiders, Brown and Denarius Moore. Jernigan, who turns 26 this year, is also an interesting option — he was poised to assume a much larger role in the Giants’ offense in 2014 before a foot injury cut his season short. Williams also may have something left in the tank after a lost season in Buffalo, but a team shouldn’t invest more than a minimum-salary contract to find out.

In fact, that probably applies to most players on this list. There’s an outside chance a club could find an impact performer in this group, but most of these guys will end up no higher than third or fourth on a team’s depth chart. Others may not even rank that highly, contributing primarily on special teams or in the return game rather than an offense.

Restricted FAs:

It’s not easy to pry away a restricted free agent from a team that wants to keep him, and I assume that will be the case for the more noteworthy names among this year’s RFA wideouts. Guys like Beasley, Holmes, Johnson, Kearse, and Streater should pique the interest of teams in need of wideouts, but I imagine their current clubs will submit contract tenders to bring them back.

In my view, Holmes is the most interesting player in this group, but considering how much cap room the Raiders have, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Raiders placed a higher tender on the 26-year-old to discourage rival suitors from courting him. Typically, a minimum-level RFA tender is enough to scare off potential bidders, but for less than $1MM, Oakland could increase its offer to a second-round tender, meaning that any club hoping to sign Holmes would have to part with a second-round pick to land him.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

The Patriots’ Options For Darrelle Revis

February 11th, 2015 at 8:50am CST by Luke Adams

Several weeks ago, I took a closer look at the Lions’ options this offseason with Ndamukong Suh, whose contract situation is much more complicated than a typical free agent’s. Because Suh’s 2014 cap number was well over $22MM, using the franchise tag on the defensive tackle this winter would cost Detroit much more than it would cost – for example – the Cowboys to tag Dez Bryant, or the Chiefs to tag Justin Houston.

While Suh’s case is exceptional, the Patriots’ options with cornerback Darrelle Revis this offseason may be even trickier. The franchise tag isn’t an option for New England and Revis, since he remains under contract for 2015 rather than being eligible for free agency in March. But retaining the star corner won’t be as easy as simply keeping him on the roster. Let’s examine the options on the table for the Patriots and Revis as we try to determine what his future might hold….

Picking up his 2015 option:

When the Patriots signed Revis last March, the deal was structured in such a way that it was reported as essentially being a one-year, $12MM pact, despite technically being a two-year, $32MM agreement. Along with a $10MM signing bonus, which was prorated over two years, the contract included a modest $1.5MM base salary for 2014, a $7.5MM base salary for 2015, and a $12MM roster bonus if the former first-round pick remained on the Pats’ roster for a second season.Darrelle Revis

Throw in $500K annual per-game roster bonuses, and the upshot is this: Revis counted against New England’s cap for $7MM in year one of the deal. In year two, he’ll count for $5MM in dead money against the cap if he’s cut, or for $25MM if the Pats pick up his option. Having already paid him $12MM, the team would be on the hook for another $20MM in 2015 by keeping him around on the same deal.

While it initially appeared out of the question, the idea of simply picking up Revis’ option has gained some traction lately. Most recently, both Gary Tanguay and Chris Gasper of CSNNE suggested yesterday that they felt the Pats should consider exercising that option if the two sides can’t work out a longer-term arrangement.

Picking up the option sounds like a nice fallback plan on the surface, buying the club some time to negotiate an extension and ensuring that Revis sticks around to handcuff top opposing receivers. But in practicality, it’s extremely difficult to imagine the Pats being able to stomach such an exorbitant cap hit. For comparison’s sake, there were only two cap numbers in all of football in 2014 that were over $20MM — Suh’s $22.41MM figure, and Eli Manning‘s $20.4MM. If we narrow our focus to the Patriots, only Tom Brady had a cap hit of over $8MM, at $14.8MM.

Bringing back Revis is important, but history has proven that Bill Belichick‘s Patriots aren’t a team that retains a player at any cost. New England currently projects to be nearly $5MM over the cap for 2015, with Revis’ option on its books, and while it will be possible to cut some players and slide under the cap, keeping the cornerback around for a cap hit that’s worth $11MM more than Brady’s would seriously limit the club’s flexibility this offseason.

Patriots president Jonathan Kraft recently acknowledged that the second year of Revis’ deal is essentially a “placeholder,” which makes sense. When they finalized the contract a year ago, the Pats didn’t expect the 29-year-old to play the second season at that price, and even after a year in which the team won a Super Bowl and Revis ranked as one of the league’s top corners (PFF link), I’d be surprised if that stance changes.

Working out a multiyear extension:

If exercising Revis’ second-year option isn’t a viable solution and using the franchise or transition tag isn’t on the table, negotiating a multiyear extension looks to be by far the Patriots’ best bet. And with free agency less than a month away, I expect the club to do everything it can to finalize something with its top defensive back.

As I noted earlier, however, New England isn’t the sort of team that will lock up its players at any price. A long-term deal would have to provide value and flexibility for the Pats in addition to being worthwhile for Revis. Given the cornerback’s age (he turns 30 in July) and the Pats’ reluctance to splurge on any one player (even Brady is making markedly less than other top quarterbacks), I think it’s unlikely that the team will make an offer similar to the ones signed by players like Richard Sherman, Joe Haden and Patrick Peterson in 2014.

Even if guys like Haden and Peterson don’t necessarily have the same ability Revis does as a cover corner, their extensions will cover their prime years. There’s still room for improvement for those players as they enter their mid-20s — in Revis’ case, the concern would be that a drop-off may be around the corner, if not in the next year or two, than shortly thereafter. He’s still in great shape, but if the Pats have any concerns about his long-term outlook, the team may be reluctant to commit to a lengthy deal in the range of $13.5-14MM per year, like the ones signed by Sherman, Haden, and Peterson.

That may be fine with Revis, whose last couple deals have both been structured to allow his teams to escape after just a year or two. He has never been shy about betting on himself in the past, though there’s no guarantee that stance will change as he approaches 30 — banking on a big annual payday was a safe bet for most of his career, but if the veteran has a down year at age 31, for instance, there will be more uncertainty about his ability to bounce back and to once again rank among the NFL’s elite defenders.

Taking into account all those factors, a three-year deal in the range of $45MM with a sizable portion of guaranteed money seems like it could make sense for the Patriots. But would it make sense for Revis? If he plays hardball and forces the Pats to pick up his option, he’d guarantee himself $20MM for the 2014 season alone. Even if the team doesn’t exercise that option, he could hit the open market and potentially find another suitor (the Jets?) more willing to overpay him. Coming off another excellent season, Revis will have plenty of leverage — if he wants to return to New England, I think the two sides could work something out, but I’m skeptical that the Pats are willing to match the biggest offer he’d get on the open market.

Cutting him and letting him reach the open market:

If Revis does make it to free agency, that doesn’t guarantee he’ll play for a team besides the Pats in 2015. But it would certainly be a worst-case scenario for the prospect of Revis returning to New England, opening the door for the Jets – a team with a ton of cap space and a ton of interest in Revis – or another suitor to put a huge offer on the table.

A report yesterday indicated that the Jets will prioritize Revis over any other cornerback, including Antonio Cromartie, if he makes it to free agency, and it’s fair to wonder if the team itself is leaking word of its interest. After all, hinting that a big offer will be waiting for him in free agency seems like the best way to try to discourage Revis from agreeing to a new deal with the Pats.

While there’s been no indication yet what sort of contract the Jets – or any other team – might offer Revis, new GM Mike Maccagnan figures to be armed with nearly $50MM in cap room, so New York would certainly have the flexibility to make Revis an offer that matches or exceeds those long-term Sherman, Haden, and Peterson deals, making him the highest-paid corner in the game.

If the Pats hope to lock up Revis before free agency, it will probably take an offer that’s competitive with the one(s) waiting for the cornerback on the open market. As much as Revis may want to return to New England and help defend the club’s Super Bowl title, his track record suggests he’s unlikely to take a sizable discount to re-sign. Whether or not he and the Pats can find common ground on a deal that appeases both sides will be one of the top stories to watch as the free agent period approaches. The team has until March 10 to make its decision.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Market For Running Backs

February 10th, 2015 at 4:06pm CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to running backs. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

While the free agent market for quarterbacks lacks a real difference-maker, that’s not the case at running back. The position may have become devalued in recent years, but the lack of impact deals in free agency last winter could largely be attributed to the lack of impact players available. If the NFL’s leading rusher (Murray) hits the open market, he’ll do very well, despite potential concerns about his 2014 workload, or about a production drop-off behind a new offensive line.

Murray isn’t the only potential starter in this group. Mathews and Ingram have been inconsistent since entering the league as first-round draft picks, but have shown plenty of promise, and should provide value if they can stay healthy. Gore and Forsett will both be on the wrong side of 30 by the end of 2015, but are coming off very impressive 2014 campaigns, and I’d bet on them having something left in the tank.

Outside of Murray, the most intriguing name on this list might be Spiller. Like Mathews and Ingram, he has been plagued by injuries in recent years, but his big-play ability makes him very appealing, especially if he comes on the cheap. I could envision Spiller approaching free agency the same way that Jeremy Maclin did a year ago, taking a one-year deal with the hopes of having a big season and landing a more sizable contract the following year.

Rounding out this top tier: Bradshaw and Ridley, who will look to return from season-ending injuries; and Helu and Vereen, who will appeal to teams looking to add a receiving threat out of the backfield.

Other unrestricted options:

Most of the notable names on this list have huge question marks hovering over them as they prepare to enter the open market. McFadden has averaged 3.4 yards per carry or less for three consecutive seasons; Moreno is coming off elbow and ACL injuries that ended his year prematurely; Tate played for three different teams in 2014 and didn’t do much to impress at any of those three stops; and Rice’s production appeared to be on the decline even before he lost a season dealing with the aftermath of his domestic violence incident.

Are there worthwhile backups and change-of-pace options among this group? Sure. McKnight and Antone Smith are a couple of home-run hitters who could shine for the right team, and Powell has shown some potential. There are also several veterans on this list who could contribute on special teams, either in kick coverage or in the return game, which will give them a little more value than the more one-dimensional backs.

Still, given the going rate for running backs these days, many of these players will likely sign minimum-salary contracts with modest guarantees for the 2015 season, if they land with a team at all.

Restricted FAs:

In many cases, these young backs are insurance policies for veteran starters, and while they may not be as cheap as restricted free agents as they were during their first three seasons, their respective teams should have interest in bringing them back.

I anticipate that players like Cadet, Polk, and Dunbar, who have spent all three seasons with their current teams, will be good candidates for the low-end restricted free agent tender. Rainey and Todman should also receive tenders, and may be the backs in this group most likely to draw interest from rival suitors. Neither player figures to head into 2015 as the top running back on his team’s depth chart, but they’ve both been productive in their limited opportunities.

Asiata is perhaps the most recognizable name here, if only because his nine touchdowns in 2014 made him a popular – if unreliable – fantasy football commodity. The 27-year-old has only averaged 3.5 yards per carry in over 200 career attempts, and is older than most of the other players on this list. But with Adrian Peterson a good bet to be traded or released by the Vikings, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Minnesota bring back Asiata.

Previously:

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