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Free Agent Market For Interior DL

February 18th, 2015 at 8:58am CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to interior defensive linemen — defensive tackles and 3-4 defensive ends. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

Suh may be the subject of more headlines this offseason than the rest of the players in this group put together, but there are plenty of above-average contributors here besides the Lions star. In fact, a couple of them are Suh’s teammates, Fairley and Mosley. It’s almost certainly a one-or-the-others scenario for Detroit, as the team will likely let its other defensive tackles go if Suh returns to the fold — if he lands elsewhere, the Lions would have much more flexibility to bring back the rest of their potential free agents.

Outside of the Lions trio, the top names here include Odrick, Knighton, Paea, and Williams. Melton could join this group too, if a team was confident in his health. All five of those players ranked among the top 20 defensive tackles in the league in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus’ grades (subscription required). Paea and Melton excelled at getting to the quarterback, but had the worst grades against the run of any top-20 defensive tackle. Knighton and Williams, on the other hand, had their positive grades buoyed by strong performances against the run, while Odrick was somewhere in between.

PFF also liked the performance of McDonald, who ranked as the NFL’s 12th-best 3-4 defensive end. However, the off-field issues surrounding McDonald, who is being investigated following accusations of sexual assault, were serious enough that the 49ers released him before the season even ended. Even if McDonald isn’t formally charged or convicted, he could be facing discipline from the league, and the trouble he has had with the law could scare off potential suitors.

Raji is another wild card in this group. He’s still only 28 years old, and he’s a former first-round pick, but he missed the entire 2014 campaign with a torn biceps, and had a dismal 2013 as a 3-4 DE. If he’s healthy and transitions back into his original nose tackle role, Raji could be a bargain for a team that takes advantage of a buy-low opportunity.

Other unrestricted options:

If a team misses out on the top tier of interior linemen, it should have plenty of choices here. The players in this list range from nose tackles to 4-3 DTs to 3-4 DEs, and some of them may even be capable of playing on the end for a 4-3 team, so a club’s targets will depend on its needs.

Kelly and Williams are among the veterans here who would be nice stopgaps for a team looking for a short-term solution on the inside. Guion should also attract plenty of interest, though he could be facing discipline from the league following his legal troubles. The same goes for Cody, whom the Ravens released just weeks before he actually reached the open market, due to an animal cruelty investigation.

Klug, Jenkins, Douzable, and Ellis are a few more players in their mid-to-late 20s who could be nice fits in the right system. Douzable and Ellis, in particular, are interesting cases — they have played well for Rex Ryan‘s Jets as run stoppers in recent years, but with so much talent on the Bills’ defensive line already, it will be interesting to see if they follow Ryan to Buffalo or try to find an opportunity that could afford them more playing time.

Restricted FAs:

In a class of restricted free agents that isn’t particularly strong overall, this group actually looks a little more intriguing than the RFAs at most positions. In my opinion, Harrison and Thornton are each worthy of at least second-round tenders from their respective clubs. Both players ranked among the best players at their positions against the run, according to PFF (subscription required). The full list of defensive tackle who had better run defense grades than Harrison? Marcell Dareus and Suh — that’s it. With negotiations for Muhammad Wilkerson on the horizon, the Jets will want to ensure that they lock up Harrison, so it wouldn’t even be a surprise if he received a first-round tender, given the team’s excess cap room.

Walker and Kitchen also held their own as part-time players for the Saints and Browns respectively, so I’d expect them to draw interest if their clubs decide not to extend an RFA tender.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

Offseason Outlook: Washington

February 17th, 2015 at 5:43pm CST by Zachary Links

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Trent Williams, T: $13,730,393
  2. Pierre Garcon, WR: $9,700,000
  3. DeSean Jackson, WR: $9,250,000
  4. Stephen Bowen, DL: $8,020,000
  5. Barry Cofield, DT: $7,677,500
  6. Ryan Kerrigan, OLB: $7,038,000
  7. Robert Griffin III, QB: $6,719,713
  8. Jason Hatcher, DL: $5,250,000
  9. DeAngelo Hall, CB: $4,812,500
  10. Chris Chester, G: $4,800,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 5 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

In January of 2014, Washington hired Jay Gruden to be the team’s next head coach after Mike Shanahan was let go. Almost a year later, many wondered if he’d get a second season. Ultimately, Gruden was assured his job after a convincing Week 16 victory over the Eagles. The same can’t be said for everyone else in the organization, however.

Longtime GM Bruce Allen was removed from his post in favor of Scot McCloughan, a seasoned executive with many years of scouting experience. For a team that hasn’t always nailed it in the draft, McCloughan’s arrival could prove to be a game changer. Meanwhile, Joe Barry was brought aboard as the team’s new defensive coordinator to replace Jim Haslett. Barry was Washington’s first choice — sort of. The club went hard after the Chargers linebackers coach, then changed direction sharply once 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio became available. Once things failed to shake out with Fangio, Washington circled back to Barry and got its original No. 1 pick.

Positions Of Need

Washington’s top priority will probably be to address the two starting safety spots. Last season, the club’s safeties were repeatedly burned deep and opposing offenses seemed to have little trouble with blowing the lid off of the coverage. The team primarily relied on Ryan Clark and Brandon Meriweather in 2014. To say that the duo disappointed would be an understatement. Meriweather was rated as the No. 60 safety in the league by Pro Football Focus (subscription required and recommended), while Clark was dead last among the qualified players at the position at No. 87. Meriweather’s -2.1 overall score indicated that he was merely below average. Clark’s -20.7 rating pegged him as being downright atrocious.

If Washington moves on from both safeties, the team could theoretically fill one hole with Phillip Thomas. Thomas was was a fourth-round pick in 2013 but has seen limited playing time thanks to injuries and time on the club’s taxi squad. However, he started four games to close out the 2014 season and he could be in the mix for a starting job, provided that he isn’t too green for it.

Still, Washington can be expected to go out of house for at least one of those roles. In a perfect world, the team would back up a Brinks truck for someone like Devin McCourty this offseason. In the real world, the front office will probably aim a little lower if they turn to free agency. Jeron Johnson, who is scheduled to hit the open market one year after he signed a restricted free agent tender with the Seahawks, could be one potential target. New GM McCloughan was in Seattle’s scouting department when Johnson was first signed as a UDFA, so there’s a definite connection there. Rahim Moore, who just turned 25 last week, is one of the Broncos’ many free agents (unrestricted) and could be another possibility. In the draft, Landon Collins could be on the radar when it’s Washington’s turn at No. 5.

Ryan Kerrigan had a breakout year for Washington last season but Brian Orakpo wasn’t able to deliver an encore of his 2013 performance on the other side. While Kerrigan impressed with 51 tackles, 13.5 sacks, and 5 forced fumbles, the team’s pass rush as a whole left much to be desired. When Washington made Orakpo its highest-paid player with an $11.455MM deal (off of the franchise tender), the club had much higher hopes for him than an injury-riddled year that would be cut short by Week 7. The young Trent Murphy did the best he could in a starting role, but he likely won’t be asked to start again in 2015. With so many question marks surrounding Orakpo (a pending free agent), you can expect Washington to at least explore outside linebackers in free agency and possibly in the draft.

The offensive line will also be pretty high on the list of priorities for McCloughan & Co., as NFL Network’s Mike Mayock recently detailed in a conference call wtih reporters, including CSNWashington.com’s Tarik El-Bashir.

“Remember Scot McCloughan is in charge of the draft,” Mayock said. “His background tells you he’s a big-bodied guy. Offensive line and defensive line—big, strong guys. So where could they go [at No. 5 overall]? I think offensive line needs help. How they evaluate Morgan Moses and Spencer Long, who are both third-round picks from a year ago, is going to be important.”

Specifically, Mayock posited that there will be a need at right guard regardless of Long’s development as he enters his sophomore year. Mayock opined that at 32, Chris Chester‘s best football is behind him, necessitating a change. The metrics at Pro Football Focus seem to agree: Chester ranked as the No. 47 guard out of 81 qualified players at the position in 2014.

Key Free Agents

Last offseason, Washington decided that it wanted to see more out of Orakpo before making a lengthy and lucrative commitment. After seeing just seven weeks of regular season action from the veteran, it appears that the team made a smart choice. Now, the club has another difficult decision on its hands. Orakpo is eligible to hit the open market once again and, despite the uncertainty, he remains one of the most talented players at his position when he’s healthy. Using the tag on Orakpo again would be an option, theoretically, but that seems unlikely, as our own Luke Adams recently wrote. Time isn’t necessarily on Orakpo’s side as he approaches age 29 and, therefore, he’ll probably prioritize the best payday available to him. All things considered, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Washington let him go elsewhere.

In his five games (four starts) in 2014, quarterback Colt McCoy posted respectable numbers, completing 71.1% of his passes for 1,057 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions. Now, he’ll likely be looking for a pay raise as he approaches the open market. Assuming Washington sticks with Robert Griffin III under center (and even if they don’t), the organization has learned the value of having a quality No. 2 signal caller on the depth chart. Another team could certainly outbid Washington, but with plenty of breathing room under the cap, it would make sense for the club that drafted RGIII in 2012 to retain the University of Texas product.

Speaking of valuable understudies, tight end Niles Paul became quite an important player in Washington’s passing game last season. With Jordan Reed struggling through injuries, Paul filled in capably and posted some impressive stat lines, particularly in the early going. Paul may be a bit undersized for the position at 6’1″, but you can expect teams to circle the wagons around him regardless if he hits the open market.

On defense, it’s a little tricky to get a read on the aforementioned safety situation. After turning in a year that disappointing by any measure, Clark probably won’t be welcomed back. Meriweather, on the other hand, could be a consideration depending on how things break in the secondary.

Longtime Washington back Roy Helu could wind up elsewhere to infuriate fantasy owners everywhere. Veteran Santana Moss, who has been a huge part of the organization for years, is determined to continue playing but he could be donning colors besides burgundy and gold for the first time since 2004.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

As we detailed earlier, the offensive line is definitely an area of importance for Washington. With that in mind, the club could seek to work out an extension with tackle Trent Williams. Injuries and all, Williams figures to be a sought-after commodity after the 2015 season when he’s eligible to hit the open market. A new deal won’t be cheap, but it’s also not easy to replace a young, dominant tackle like Williams, who turns 27 in July.

The team has to decide by May 3rd whether to extend RGIII through the 2016 season. Not long ago, that seemed like an absolute no-brainer of a move. Now? – That’s a dilly of a pickle, as longtime NFL aficionado Ned Flanders would say. Last season, the one-time face of the franchise was benched in favor of McCoy and only regained his starting gig when he was placed on IR. Despite his adamant public statements to the contrary, it’s widely believed that Coach Gruden is not a huge fan of RGIII. Rather than pick up the costly option, owner Dan Snyder might be okay with rolling the dice on Griffin in ’15. Of course, if Snyder does not subscribe to the idea of the sunk cost fallacy, he might have a hard time doing that after Washington gave up a fortune to draft the young signal-caller just a few years ago.

Running back Alfred Morris, earning a pittance of a salary, is entering his walk year and could certainly be an extension candidate. Kerrigan, coming off of a breakout season, will earn a $7.038MM salary in 2015 after the team exercised his fifth-year option in May of last year. Of course, as a former first-round pick, it wasn’t a total shock to see him put everything together at this stage of his career. Washington has watched Kerrigan bust his behind each and every season and that should give them confidence that he’ll continue to trend upward.

Overall Outlook

After a 4-12 season, no one will accuse 2014’s NFC East cellar-dwellers of looking like world beaters. Still, in a division that looks relatively wide open, there’s no reason why Washington can’t get back on the right path in 2015. Armed with a host of high draft picks and a healthy amount of cap space, the team could be poised to pull off an impressive turnaround with the right offseason moves.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Market For Kickers/Punters

February 17th, 2015 at 5:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to kickers and punters. Let’s dive in….

Kickers:

Gostkowski is perhaps the most notable name on this year’s list of free agent kickers, and for all the talk about the Patriots’ willingness to move on from high-priced players earlier than expected, the team has only really employed two kickers – Gostkowski and Adam Vinatieri – since 1996. If the Pats see a young prospect they like that would cost a fraction of Gostkowski’s salary, I’d fully expect them to move on, particularly with a couple other notable players to retain. But the club has been willing to pay its kicker like one of the league’s best ($3.4MM annually) in recent years, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see that continue.

As restricted free agents who have been very effective in their first three seasons, Tucker and Forbath almost certainly aren’t going anywhere, but we could see some movement with the rest of the group. Succop, Prater, and Feely joined their current teams in 2014, so there’s not much history there. They’re more likely to switch teams than guys like Bryant and Nugent, who have been with their respective clubs for a few seasons now.

Besides Gostkowski and perhaps Bryant, none of these guys should be among the league’s most highly-paid kickers, though Tucker could join those ranks soon — his status as a restricted free agent should keep his salary modest for one more season, but if Baltimore wants to work out something longer-term, it figures to cost $3MM+ per year. Tucker’s conversion percentage dipped a little last season, but his five missed attempts all came from 50+ yards.

Punters:

No position will have less drama during this free agent period than punter. As restricted free agents, Jones and King likely aren’t going anywhere as long as their teams want them back, which seems like a reasonable bet. McBriar probably won’t return to San Diego if injured starter Mike Scifres is ready to go for training camp. That leaves Kern, whose performance last season was certainly strong enough to warrant interest from rival suitors — it’s just a matter of finding an opening. If the Titans haven’t gotten anything done with their punter by March 10, expect clubs looking for an upgrade at the position to kick the tires on him.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

Free Agent Market For Centers/Guards

February 16th, 2015 at 1:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to interior offensive linemen — centers and guards. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

This year’s class of interior lineman has a little something for everyone, including top-notch guards (Iupati, Franklin) and centers (Hudson, Wisniewski). There’s also a nice mix of experienced veterans, such as Sims and Montgomery, and younger players who could still have room to improve — Boling and Carpenter fit this bill.

Iupati is probably the best bet to land the biggest contract of this group, but Hudson, Boling, or even Wisniewski could give him a run. Those players should be the targets for teams looking to find a long-term answer at a certain position. Veterans like De La Puente and Sims, on the other hand, should come cheaper, and on a shorter term. They’d be nice stopgap solutions for teams looking to contend right away, or clubs developing a draftee that isn’t quite ready to start.

As teams figure out which of these linemen to target, it’s also worth considering their strengths and weaknesses. Iupati, Boling, Wisniewski, and Berger are among the guys here who received significantly better run-blocking grades than pass-blocking grades in 2014, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Carpenter and Montgomery, meanwhile, were better pass blockers than run blockers, while Hudson and Franklin were equally solid in both facets of the game.

Other unrestricted options:

While this list mostly consists of depth options, there are certainly plenty of players here with starting experience — it’s simply a question of whether they’re the type of players you’d want to have in your starting lineup. For instance, Colledge, Joseph, McGlynn, and Pears all saw more than 750 offensive snaps for their respective teams in 2014. They also all placed within the bottom five guards in the league, out of 78 qualified players, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Colon, Connolly, Ducasse, and Jerry were also among the NFL’s bottom 20 guards last year, according to PFF.

That doesn’t mean some of those players might not be effective in 2015 — Jerry and Colon are among the players who had respectable seasons in 2013 before a precipitous drop-off last year. And even if Connolly wasn’t the reliable inside force he had been in past years, he was still a starter for the Super Bowl champions.

Late-30s guys like Raiola and Goodwin should also provide passable short-term production and will be available on one-year contracts, and you could certainly do worse than having a veteran like Satele or Linkenbach as a depth piece. This group may not feature many exciting names – if such a thing is even possible for a center or guard – but for clubs in need of a reliable backup or two, there are plenty of options here.

Restricted FAs:

We haven’t really seen enough from most of these players to know whether or not they’d hold their own if forced into more significant roles, but Schilling was decent in limited action for the Seahawks last year, and Shipley posted a very solid +5.7 grade for the Colts in 440 snaps, per PFF (subscription required). Those two players – particularly Shipley – are the best bets to receive RFA tenders, but otherwise I anticipate we’ll see these guys re-sign for lesser salaries or land modest deals with new teams.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

Free Agent Market For Offensive Tackles

February 15th, 2015 at 8:29pm CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to offensive tackles. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

A year ago, the free agent class of offensive tackles included a handful of solid left tackles, including Branden Albert, Eugene Monroe, and Jared Veldheer, whose new deals all exceeded $35MM in total value. This time around, it would be a surprise if any tackles signed for that much, but it’s not out of the question.

Roos and Dunlap have shown they’re capable of protecting a quarterback’s blind side, and while Roos may very well end up retiring, Dunlap should do well in free agency, assuming he makes it there. Still, it may be Bulaga, a right tackle, who lands the biggest payday of this year’s class. The Packers lineman, who was recently profiled by our Rory Parks, turns just 26 next month, and is coming off a very strong year. While teams may be reluctant to try him on the left side, his new deal should rival the top contracts signed by right tackles.

Newton, Free, Barksdale, and Harris all played right tackle in 2014 as well, and their performances ranged from solid to above-average. Like Bulaga, they may not be trusted to protect a signal-caller’s blind side, but teams looking for stability on the right side should be interested. As for Bell, he’s the trickiest case among this group — he has been a starter for a playoff team in Carolina in each of the last two seasons, but his Pro Football Focus grades weren’t great on the right side and were even worse on the left in 2014 (subscription required). He should find a starting job, but perhaps for a more modest salary than some others on this list.

Other unrestricted options:

If a club targeting an offensive tackle in free agency misses out on a player in our first tier, it may make sense to wait for the draft rather than relying on a player from this group to be a starter. By my count, Oher was the only player here to see more than 600 offensive snaps in 2014, and he was quickly cut by the Titans, who signed him less than a year ago.

Still, there’s a little potential here. Parnell hasn’t seen the field much, acting as a reserve on the NFL’s best offensive line in Dallas, but he has done well with the playing time he has received, and another team may envision a larger role for him. Fox, Reitz, and Winston are among the other players who should be able to provide respectable production in the event of injuries to starters.

For the most part, the players in this group will be signed as the third or fourth tackle on a team’s depth chart, and won’t be relied upon to play major roles in 2015.

Restricted FAs:

Barclay represents the most intriguing name in this group — he started at right tackle for the Packers in 2013, but missed the entire 2014 campaign with an ACL injury. Green Bay has to make a decision on 2014’s right tackle (Bulaga) as well, and it seems logical that the club will keep one or the other. If the club manages to work out a deal with Bulaga, Barclay could garner some interest as a bounce-back candidate.

The Vikings’ Harris filled in at right tackle for the team down the stretch and was solid, so I expect Minnesota to retain him, even if he heads back to the bench. Sowell and New Orleans’ Harris don’t figure to receive RFA tenders.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Bengals

February 15th, 2015 at 3:40pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. A.J. Green, WR: $10,176,000
  2. Leon Hall, CB: $9,600,000
  3. Andy Dalton, QB: $9,600,000
  4. Geno Atkins, DT: $9,000,000
  5. Andre Smith, T: $6,362,500
  6. Andrew Whitworth, T: $6,200,000
  7. Vontaze Burfict, LB: $5,175,000
  8. Carlos Dunlap, DE: $4,900,000
  9. Reggie Nelson, S: $4,775,000
  10. Domata Peko, DT: $3,700,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 21 overall pick
  • No traded draft picks

Other:

Overview

For the fourth straight season, the Bengals, head coach Marvin Lewis, and quarterback Andy Dalton finished better than .500 and earned a postseason berth. And for the fourth straight season, Cincinnati was eliminated in the wild card round, this time via a 26-10 loss to Andrew Luck and the Colts. As such, it’s hard to qualify the 2014 Bengals season as either a success or a failure — instead, Cincinnati seems to be stuck in some kind of middle ground, good enough to have a high floor, but flawed enough that they’ll never reach a higher ceiling.A.J. Green

Under new coordinator Hue Jackson, the Bengals’ offense never really took off — although the freshly-extended Dalton completed a career-high 64.2% of his passes, he still threw 17 interceptions against just 19 touchdowns, finishing as the 21st-best QB in the league per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). In his defense, Dalton didn’t have many options to throw to, as Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert combined to appear in one game, while A.J. Green, Jermaine Gresham, and Giovani Bernard missed significant time dealing with their own injuries. While rookie running back Jeremy Hill was a bright spot, rushing for more than 1,100 yards and nine touchdowns, the offense was below-average as a whole, finishing 21st in DVOA.

The more surprising regression occurred on defense, where the Paul Guenther-led unit fell from the No. 5 DVOA ranking in 2013 to 14th last season. Some of that fall could be attributed to the loss of former DC Mike Zimmer, who took the Vikings’ head coaching job, but injuries also plagued the defense. Star linebacker Vontaze Burfict dealt with numerous ailments throughout the year, and ultimately played in just five games. Defensive tackle Geno Atkins, dominant until tearing his ACL in 2013, never looked fully healthy. The unit also failed to generate any sort of pass rush, finishing last in the league with just 20 sacks.

Key Free Agents

The Bengals’ crop of pending free agents is primarily made up of role players, but there are three FAs who have been significant factors in recent years. Tight end Jermaine Gresham, a first-round selection in 2010, caught 62 passes for 460 yards and five touchdowns last year, but wasn’t a great blocker in either the pass or the run game. Reports at the end of the season indicated that teammates were upset with Gresham’s inability to play through pain, and while that might not factor into Cincinnati’s thinking, it doesn’t help his chances of being re-signed. He’s never been a great fit for the Cincinnati offense, and given that Eifert will look to take on a larger role in 2015, Gresham probably won’t return.

On the other hand, guard Clint Boling should be retained, as he’s started 44 games during the past three seasons, becoming a key cog on an excellent offensive line. The 2011 fourth-round pick finished as PFF’s No. 19 overall guard among 81 qualifiers, especially excelling in the run game. The Bengals tend to re-sign their own contributors who perform well, so Boling should be brought back on a multi-year pact, probably on a ~$4MM salary.

Linebacker Rey Maualuga is the third key free agent on the Bengals’ to-do list this offseason. He’s been consistently average during his career — nothing more, nothing less. But he’s solid against the run, knows the scheme after starting 84 games during his career, and has the ability to fill in at middle linebacker if Burfict is out. The 28-year-old might be allowed to test the market, but if he doesn’t find a deal in free agency, he’ll likely be back in the Queen City on a one-year deal.

Terence Newman‘s role had been diminished by the end of the season, and the 36-year-old would probably have to accept a role as the No. 4 CB to return in 2015. Marshall Newhouse struggled mightily while filling in for Andre Smith at right tackle, so much so that veteran Eric Winston was brought near the end of the year — the latter could be retained, but the former won’t be. Jason Campbell could be re-signed to compete with A.J. McCarron for the backup quarterback job, but receiver Brandon Tate will probably be let go as the Bengals search for a more dynamic return man.

Possible Cap Casualties

Two defensive line mainstays — Domata Peko and Robert Geathers — are overwhelmingly likely to be released in the coming weeks. The 30-year-old Peko started all 16 games in 2014 but was extremely ineffective, finishing as the second-worst defensive tackle in the league per PFF. Due to count $3.7MM against the cap next year, Peko won’t leave any dead money on the Bengal’s books when he’s cut. Geathers, meanwhile, has become nothing more than a rotational lineman after spending 11 years in Cincinnati, and the team will save $3.05MM by cutting him.

Receiver Greg Little will also probably be cut, but his release will save the Bengals just $745K. Cincinnati has managed its cap well in recent years, so there aren’t many veteran contracts that need to be dealt with to create financial space. Moreover, the club already has more than $34MM in projected cap space to work with, so cutting role players to save a few dollars wouldn’t move the needle much.

Positions Of Need

The Bengals do have several positions where an infusion of talent via free agent additions could be helpful, but a disclaimer must be noted. Like the Packers in the NFC, Cincinnati simply doesn’t spend on free agents, no matter how much cap space it has. In the late 2000s, the Bengals signed one major free agent per season: Antwan Odom in ’08, Laveranues Coles in ’09, and Antonio Bryant in ’10. Each of those signees was a major bust, and the Bengals have retreated from the open market ever since. They added role players like Nate Clements (2011) and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (2012), signed no free agents until late April in 2013, and added only veteran depth in the form of Newhouse and Danieal Manning prior to 2014.

This could be the year for the Bengals to dip their toe into free agency, however — armed with the aforementioned $34.63MM of cap space, Cincinnati could take advantage of a free agent class that is well-stocked with players at its positions of need. First and foremost is pass-rusher, where the Bengals need a viable starter to line up opposite Carlos Dunlap. Greg Hardy could be the perfect fit for the club’s 4-3 defense, and the Bengals have shown a willingness to deal with players with off-the-field issues in the past. The Panthers haven’t shown any interest in retaining Hardy, and even though charges against him were recently dismissed, he could face a depressed market due to his baggage. Jason Pierre-Paul, Jerry Hughes, and Brandon Graham could also present options at defensive end, but each will likely require a long-term deal with a hefty guarantee. More likely, Cincinnati will go bargain-hunting, meaning players like Derrick Morgan, Adrian Clayborn, or even Dwight Freeney could be on the table.

Help along the interior defensive line could be just as key to generating a pass rush, and if Peko and Geathers both go, defensive tackle could another area to target in free agency. Cincinnati won’t be players for the top DTs available like Ndamukong Suh, Terrance Knighton, or Nick Fairley. But someone like Henry Melton, who recently had his option declined by the Cowboys, could be a fit for the Bengals, as could Lions FA C.J. Mosley, who finished as the No. 26 DT per PFF after filling in for an injured Fairley.

Next up on Cincinnati’s to-do list should be tight end, where Gresham will likely leave via free agency, and Eifert will be question mark heading into his third season. ESPN.com’s Coley Harvey has pushed the idea of the Bengals signing Jordan Cameron, who would add a different dimension to Cincinnati’s offense. I like the fit, but Cincy probably won’t commit to a player with such injury history unless it’s on a one-year deal. I think Charles Clay would make some sense for the Bengals, but he would offer production similar to what the team hopes they can get from Eifert. More likely, the Bengals will add a strong blocking TE to replace Gresham, so Virgil Green or Matt Spaeth could be options.

The Bengals could also look to make an addition at either wide receiver or offensive tackle. At receiver, the team is stocked with a lot of talent in Green, Jones, and Mohamed Sanu, but as was clear when injuries struck last season, there isn’t much in the way of depth. None of the big-name pass-catcher make sense given that the club will likely be paying Green a large salary in due time, but reserves like Eddie Royal, Vincent Brown, or Leonard Hankerson could be intriguing adds. Along the front five, Harvey wrote yesterday that Winston will likely be back as the swing tackle, but if the Bengals want someone who can play the interior as well, a veteran such as Adam Snyder or Gabe Carimi could be in the cards.

I also expect the Bengals to make additions to shore up the linebacking corps, especially in the wake of Burfict’s lost 2014. Maualuga could be re-signed, but I’d guess the rest of the LB reinforcements will come through the draft.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The single most pressing issue on the Bengals’ table is the contract status of Green. Cincinnati exercised his fifth-year option for 2015, so the 26-year-old will play under a one-year, $10.176MM deal. As Paul Dehner Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently outlined, the Bengals could conceivably slap the franchise tag on Green in 2016 for a cost of ~$14MM, and then do so again in 2017 for approximately $16MM. Obviously, this isn’t the ideal situation, as the cap hits would be high, and Green would presumably be disgruntled. A long-term extension that pays Green like a true No. 1 receiver ($12-14MM AAV) would be best for both sides, but Green’s reps probably want to wait and see if Dez Bryant or Demaryius Thomas are able to reach free agency and break the bank, therefore setting a baseline for contract talks.

The Bengals have another crop of players under contract only through 2015, such as tackles Andrew Whitworth and Andre Smith and safeties George Iloka and Reggie Nelson. Whitworth will probably retire as a Bengal, so a deal to secure that future is in order, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Cincinnati lets Smith walk. Both safeties should garner new contracts, but I’d expect Iloka, who was quietly the 12th-best safety in the league per PFF, to be the priority.

Cincinnati will also have to decide on a pair of fifth-year options, as 2012 first-rounders Kevin Zeitler and Dre Kirkpatrick near the end of their rookie deals. Zeitler is a no-brainer to be exercised, as he’s been nothing but solid at right guard; he’s another candidate for a long-term extension. Kirkpatrick is more complicated — he played well late last season, but contributed next to nothing during his first two years in the league. The Bengals would love to have another season by which to gauge the 25-year-old corner, but as they don’t have that luxury, I’d guess they pick up his option and hope for the best.

Overall Outlook

To say the least, 2015 is an absolutely crucial season for the Bengals. If the club fails to win playoff game (or misses the postseason altogether), I’d expect owner Mike Brown & Co. to take a serious look at “blowing things up.” Lewis likely won’t stick around if the team loses in the first round once again, and even Dalton’s future would be uncertain, as 2016 marks the first year in which Cincinnati could release its quarterback and save money against the cap. For now, the Bengals need to lock up its star pass-catcher in Green, and look into long-term deals with the rest of its young core. As I noted, Cincinnati never plays the free agency game, but with so much on the line, it’s fair to wonder if this is the offseason where the Bengals spend some money on the open market.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Buffalo Bills

February 15th, 2015 at 1:15pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Mario Williams, DE: $19,400,000
  2. Marcell Dareus, DT: $8,060,000
  3. Eric Wood, C: $6,650,000
  4. Kyle Williams, DT: $6,400,000
  5. Leodis McKelvin, CB: $4,900,000
  6. Sammy Watkins, WR: $4,530,819
  7. Corey Graham, CB: $4,450,000
  8. Aaron Williams, S: $3,900,000
  9. Stephon Gilmore, CB: $3,844,957
  10. Kraig Urbik, G: $3,750,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

The Bills made strides in 2014, amassing their first nine-win output in a decade, but they extended their playoff drought to an NFL-worst 15 years and went another season with a subpar offense and no solution at quarterback.

Buffalo finished above .500 and placed second in the AFC East almost solely on the strength of its defense, which led the league in sacks (54) and was top five in turnovers, points allowed and yardage surrendered. That helped lead to a second overall mark in Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings.

Conversely, the Bills’ offense ended up toward the bottom half of the league in points (18th), yards (26th) and DVOA (26th). The unit was neither strong through the air nor on the ground, with journeyman quarterback Kyle Orton and a cadre of running backs producing to underwhelming degrees behind a porous line.Rex Ryan (Featured)

Coaching Changes:

The Bills’ offseason began in entropic fashion with the abrupt departure of head coach Doug Marrone, who went 15-17 in Buffalo in his two years there and then took advantage of a $4 million opt-out clause in his contract. That forced the Bills, led by new owners Terry and Kim Pegula, along with general manager Doug Whaley, to undertake their sixth head coaching search since 2000. After an arduous interview process, the Bills hired Rex Ryan, who coached the division-rival Jets from 2009-14 and went 46-50 with two playoff appearances.

Ryan’s first order of business was to replace Marrone’s much-maligned offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett. Ryan opted for Greg Roman, who held the same position with the 49ers from 2011-14. He then appointed Dennis Thurman to take over a defense that Jim Schwartz ran with great effectiveness last year. Thurman was on Ryan’s staff in New York during Ryan’s entire tenure with the Jets, and Thurman held the D-coordinator position there the previous two campaigns.

The defensive-minded Ryan and his cohort Thurman should acquit themselves well atop one of the league’s most talented stop units. Roman, however, will have his work cut out for him to improve an offense that has been mostly woeful the last decade and a half, and was the primary reason the Bills missed the postseason in 2014.

Positions Of Need:

Not surprisingly, the Bills’ biggest weaknesses lie on offense. Their main source of trouble is under center. Orton unexpectedly retired after the season, which means two-year veteran E.J. Manuel is currently the Bills’ No. 1 QB by default. Manuel, whom the Bills chose 16th overall in the 2013 draft, has disappointed so far and the team is expected to at least seek competition for him this offseason. The problem is that capable competition could be difficult to find.

Mark Sanchez is the preeminent free agent QB available, and he was Ryan’s starter in New York throughout the majority of the duo’s time there. However, the ex-USC star’s half-decade with the Jets was riddled with ignominy. The 28-year-old experienced mild success with the Eagles last season as Nick Foles‘ backup, but Sanchez’s history suggests he’s a poor starter. He and Ryan still have an amicable relationship, though, and when you combine that with the Bills’ dire QB situation, there’s a chance the two could reunite. Furthering the possibility is that the rest of the free agent class is even less appealing than Sanchez (Brian Hoyer, Jake Locker and Josh McCown lead the way), the Bills don’t have a first-round pick to find another signal-caller, and the trade market isn’t expected to bear much fruit.

Regardless of the path the Bills take at QB, it’s imperative they ameliorate an offensive line that was near the bottom last season. Pro Football Focus ranked the Bills’ O-line 30th overall in 2014, with particularly lousy grades going to right side starters Erik Pears (guard) and Seantrel Henderson (tackle). Left tackle Cordy Glenn and center Eric Wood will keep their jobs, and the newly-signed, controversial Richie Incognito is expected to take the reins at one of the guard spots adjacent to Wood. That still leaves two areas of clear concern (LG or RG and RT). The 49ers’ Mike Iupati will be the premier free agent guard available, and he’s surely familiar with Roman from the pair’s time in San Francisco. It would make sense for the Bills to court Iupati (or Orlando Franklin or Clint Boling, to name a couple more) and one of the right tackle upgrades set to hit the market, including Bryan Bulaga, Doug Free and Joe Barksdale.

Fixing the holes along the line will help Buffalo’s rushing attack, which finished 25th in the league in yardage last year, but there’s a chance that next season’s starting running back isn’t even on the roster. Although Fred Jackson has been a reliable producer for the Bills since 2007, he’s coming off the worst rushing season of his eight-year career and will turn 34 later this month. Jackson is the oldest back in the league and probably shouldn’t be viewed as any kind of a solution at this point. The same lack of confidence is applicable to teammates Anthony Dixon, who’s a short-yardage specialist and an adept special teamer, and Bryce Brown, who failed to impress in his first season with the Bills after they acquired him from the Eagles.

Whether the Bills go with some combination of Jackson, Dixon and Brown in 2015, try to re-sign free agent-to-be C.J. Spiller (who, like Jackson, is coming off his worst season) or bring in an outsider, they’re going to have to establish a running game. That’s something Ryan’s Jets and Roman’s 49ers did throughout their respective tenures, and, given the Bills’ imperfect QB situation, it’s something they’ll have to achieve again for Buffalo to have a playoff shot next season.

Defensively, the Bills’ needs are much less serious, although their No. 1 free agent – end Jerry Hughes – resides on that side of the ball. Hughes has accumulated 19.5 sacks during his two years as a Bill and has been an excellent complement to his fellow starting linemen, Pro Bowlers Mario Williams, Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus. Whaley has expressed interest in re-signing Hughes, according to the team’s official website, but there’s a chance Buffalo is averse to breaking the bank on him when it already has three outstanding D-linemen and various other positions to address. What’s more, the price to franchise tag Hughes will be steep (upward of $14MM, perhaps), and our own Luke Adams doesn’t expect the Bills to apply the tag to Hughes

If the Bills do sign a noteworthy defender and it’s not Hughes, two of Ryan’s ex-players are obvious candidates.

The first is Patriots cornerback Darrelle Revis. The 29-year-old spent four seasons under Ryan as a Jet, and ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweeted earlier this month that Ryan will try to lure Revis to Buffalo if he hits free agency. However, the Bills already have three able corners in Stephon Gilmore, Leodis McKelvin and Corey Graham. That trio helped the Bills’ defense finish last season ranked third overall in passing yardage allowed and sixth in interceptions. Revis is on another level than Gilmore, McKelvin and Graham, to be sure. Nevertheless, one has to wonder if he’s worth a mega-deal to a team that’s already sturdy against the pass – especially a team with so many offensive issues in need of attention.

The Bills could also explore signing linebacker David Harris, an eight-year Jet whom Ryan called “the most underrated player in the league” last June. Harris then proceeded to play a staggering 99% of defensive snaps for Ryan a season ago. With Ryan being a 3-4-oriented coach, the Bills will need another LB to join entrenched starters Kiko Alonso, Preston Brown and Nigel Bradham. It’s feasible, therefore, to imagine Ryan and Harris transferring their partnership from New York to Buffalo.

Key Free Agents:

The Bills are likely to lose some parts of last year’s defense to free agency. Hughes and two other starters (middle linebacker Brandon Spikes and strong safety Da’Norris Searcy) could end up on the market.

Spikes is known as a gifted run stopper who has difficulty against the pass, which explains why he played just 46.4% of Buffalo’s defensive snaps last season. Whether Spikes returns to Buffalo may depend on whether Ryan wants him to. Signing Harris would seal Spikes’ fate with the Bills and send him looking for work elsewhere.

Searcy had a respectable ’14, playing nearly 60% of snaps with 13 starts, 65 tackles and three interceptions. However, the Bills might view Searcy as expendable and save cap space by letting him walk and plugging in Duke Williams, who played almost half the team’s defensive snaps as a second-year man.

Offensively, aside from the aforementioned Spiller, the Bills aren’t in danger of losing anyone that recognizable. The team will surely move on from Pears after his dreadful season. Of more importance is the future of wide receiver Marcus Easley, a standout special teamer who helped the Bills finish top five in both kickoff and punt return yardage allowed last year. Easley’s play earned him a place on Pro Football Focus’ 2014 All-Pro special teams unit.

Possible Cap Casualties:

If the Bills cut guard Kraig Urbik, they’ll save $2.35MM on next season’s cap. That could happen, ESPN’s Mike Rodak tweeted recently. Another potential cap casualty is linebacker Keith Rivers, who played just 17.1% of defensive snaps last season. Releasing him by June 1 would give the Bills an extra $1.7MM of cap room.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions:

The Bills are conceivably a year from losing Dareus to free agency. The 331-pounder has emerged as a top-tier D-lineman since the Bills drafted him third overall in 2011. Over the last two years, Dareus has accrued 17.5 total sacks (including a career-best 10 last season), a pair of Pro Bowl bids and a First-Team All-Pro selection. He’ll make just over $8MM in the final year of his contract, and to retain him beyond then will cost the Bills a lot more. Dareus could be in line for a contract similar to the one the Buccaneers gave Gerald McCoy last October. McCoy signed a seven-year, $98MM pact with over $51MM in guarantees, the richest ever awarded to a D-tackle. When he signed, McCoy was a 26-year-old with two Pro Bowl nods and two All-Pro selections to his name. Dareus is of similar age (25 next month) and, like McCoy, highly accomplished.

Unfortunately for the Bills, Dareus isn’t their only impact lineman whose team-controlled status is nearing an end. Glenn, perhaps Buffalo’s foremost O-lineman, is also a season from free agency. Glenn was a bright spot on an abysmal line last season, according to Pro Football Focus – which gave him a positive rating – and has been both good and durable during his three-year career. The 25-year-old has appeared in 45 of a possible 48 regular-season games and started in all 45 of those contests. Glenn is not on Dareus’ level as a player and won’t be as expensive to retain, but the Bills aren’t in any position to let their young, effective left tackle depart anytime soon.

Along with Dareus and Glenn, Bradham is another up-and-comer on the Bills who’s closing in on free agency. Bradham is fresh off a breakout 2014 effort that saw him eclipse the 100-tackle plateau (104, to be exact) to go with 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception. As a result, Pro Football Focus named the ex-Florida State Seminole a reserve on its Pro Bowl team. Although Bradham, 25, is likely to be the least costly of the trio he makes up with Dareus and Glenn, he’s still a meaningful piece and his departure would hurt the Bills.

Less pressing than the statuses of Dareus, Glenn and Bradham is that of Gilmore. The Bills will have to decide by this May whether to pick up his fifth-year option for 2016. That option is the value of the highest-paid 25 players at the cornerback position, excluding the top three players. Barring something unforeseen, the team will likely exercise Gilmore’s option and keep its top corner in the fold for at least two more seasons.

Overall Outlook:

The bad news for Buffalo is that it’s unlikely to find anything resembling an answer at quarterback this offseason. That means a position that has vexed the Bills since Hall of Famer Jim Kelly retired in 1996 is likely to continue tormenting them in 2015. The good news is that the Bills are an above-average team with an above-average amount of cap room. If the Bills use that cap room shrewdly to augment the talent around their flawed QB (be it Manuel or someone else), and if Ryan and his staff prove superior to their predecessors, they could push for a playoff spot in 2015.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PFR Originals: 2/8/15 – 2/15/15

February 15th, 2015 at 11:51am CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • Luke Adams began examining the 2015 free agent market, starting with the offensive skill positions: quarterbacks (link), running backs (link), receivers (link), and tight ends (link).
  • Our Offseason Outlook series continued, with four more teams being covered. I looked at the Dolphins (link), Zach Links previewed the Giants (link) and the Cowboys (link), and Rob DiRe analyzed the Eagles (link).
  • Luke went over the options the Patriots have for cornerback Darrelle Revis, whose 2015 option (with a cap hit of $25MM) seems untenable.
  • Sam Robinson took a look at the free agent stock of Broncos TE Julius Thomas, who will be the top tight end available on the market. Check out the rest of our Free Agent Stock Watch series here.
  • Luke recapped all the major coaching changes of 2015.
  • PFR readers believe Brian Hoyer is the best free agent QB available, with Mark Sanchez finishing in a close second.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Eagles

February 14th, 2015 at 9:31pm CST by Rob DiRe

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. LeSean McCoy, RB: $11,950,000
  2. Trent Cole, OLB: $11,625,000
  3. Jason Peters, T: $9,050,000
  4. Cary Williams, CB: $8,166,668
  5. Connor Barwin, OLB: $7,000,000
  6. DeMeco Ryans, LB: $6,900,000
  7. Evan Mathis, G: $6,500,000
  8. Malcolm Jenkins, S: $5,666,666
  9. Lane Johnson, T: $5,414,483
  10. Todd Herremans, OL: $5,200,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • Chip Kelly awarded final say over all draft, roster decisions.

Draft:

  • No. 20 overall pick
  • Acquired a fourth-round pick from the 49ers (via the Bills) for Bryce Brown.

Other:

Overview

The Eagles are coming off a painful end to the season in which they finished 1-3 in their final four games, ending up with a 10-6 record and narrowly missing the playoffs after having control of the NFC East for most of the year. Those four losses all came with Mark Sanchez at the helm, after the team lost Nick Foles to a broken clavicle in early November, an injury that prematurely ended the starting quarterback’s season. While Sanchez had his moments and performed better than many backups would have fared, he was unable to keep the lead he was handed in the divisional race.

Jeremy MaclinChip Kelly‘s vaunted offensive attack was unable to hit the same marks it did in his first season as the head coach, when Foles became a dark horse MVP candidate behind his 27 touchdown to only two interceptions. The Eagles were able to move the ball behind a dangerous ground attack with LeSean McCoy and a superb offensive line.

This past season, however, the offensive line dealt with injuries and suspensions, and was never able to line up its best five guys and really get a flow running the football. McCoy still ran his way into the Pro Bowl, but Eagles fans saw it as a slow burn instead of the highlight reel on loop that it had been in 2013.

One of last year’s best trades brought in Darren Sproles, who did provide some spark to both the offense and the special teams units. The Eagles’ struggles on offense were mitigated by touchdowns by the defense and special teams, but all those wins without a playoff appearance could keep the team from drafting the one player it might need the most in order to take the next step into a Super Bowl contender.

Transfer of Power

Since the regular season ended, the biggest story surrounding the Eagles has been the club’s front office shakeup. Kelly has been given a more authoritative role over the roster, while former general manager Howie Roseman has reportedly maintained control over contract negotiations and cap management. So far, this new setup has created more confusion than anything.

The new power structure will ensure that Kelly will be able to have more of an imprint on the on-the-field product. Without anyone to answer to, he will be able to pursue players to fit his system through the draft and free agency, with less push-back or resistance from his front office.

Kelly has already made a habit of adding former Oregon Ducks to his Eagles’ roster, but with full control it would be difficult to imagine someone with vision for the team such as Kelly’s not immediately pushing this roster forward, especially on offense, in order to run the offense exactly the way he wants.

Quarterback Situation

The first thing the Eagles need to address is their quarterback position. Nick Foles was sensational in 2013, but the combination of him and Sanchez this past year was adequate at best. Kelly is not running a defense-first team that can survive inconsistent quarterback play, so that will have to improve going forward.

Sanchez faded down the stretch, likely putting him out of the running for the job. The seemingly obvious solution would be to move forward with Foles, and chalk up a failed 2014 campaign to his injury. That would be a dangerous presumption. Foles turned the ball over 13 times in eight games, and struggled moving the football down the field. He also graded out extremely poorly according to Pro Football Focus, coming up behind the likes of Charlie Whitehurst, Zach Mettenberger, Mike Glennon, and Kirk Cousins (subscription required).

Of course, the top free agent passer is generally considered to be either Sanchez or Brian Hoyer. Sanchez performed worse than Foles, and doesn’t have a recent Pro Bowl season to his name, and Hoyer graded out considerably worse than Foles — the Browns signal-caller was among the worst in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.

The wild card here is the NFL Draft, where Jameis Winston is ascending as the likely number one overall pick. The quarterback he passed to get there is former Oregon Duck Marcus Mariota, who is watching his stock slip a little as the weeks go by.

The Jets are currently slated to take Mariota with the sixth pick, according to ESPN Draft Expert Todd McShay (Insider-only article). The Eagles select at No. 20, but Kelly may be hoping to have a shot to draft his former star. Moving up from 20th to first or second is probably out of the question, and even moving up to sixth is unlikely. However, if Kelly is sold on Mariota, there must be a place where he feels comfortable moving up to get the Heisman winner should he continue to fall.

Last year, Teddy Bridgewater went from possible top-three pick to the end of the first round where the Vikings traded up to select him. I don’t imagine that happening again, even if Mariota continues to fall out of favor with NFL evaluators. Even falling to No. 20 is very unlikely, as the fit with the Eagles is too obvious and any other team interested would be smart enough to try to work a deal to move up ahead of the Eagles to select him.

Kelly might not think Mariota is the perfect fit for the NFL version of his up-tempo attack, but Foles, Sanchez, and Hoyer are probably more likely to disappoint than they are to put up the points that Kelly is looking for from his offense.

Positions Of Need

Other than quarterback, which is always the number one position of need for teams that don’t feel they have the right guy, the Eagles’ biggest need is at cornerback, where the team is in desperate need of an upgrade. During their 1-3 finish, the Eagles repeatedly got burned in one-on-one coverage on the outside – giving up notably large performances to Dez Bryant, Doug Baldwin, DeSean Jackson, and Odell Beckham Jr. – and the club’s corners struggled in many other games this season.

If the team is insistent on running an aggressive defense, it will require better players on the outside. Darrelle Revis seems like a lock to return to the Patriots, and Byron Maxwell might not represent the type of athlete the Eagles need for their style of defense. Brandon Flowers also struggled in the Chiefs’ man-to-man heavy defense before being cut and restoring his value in San Diego.

Among corners that are better fits, Kareem Jackson could potentially handle the scheme, although he has been inconsistent in Houston. Antonio Cromartie is also a modicum of inconsistency, but he has a lot of experience being on an island and has had more good days than bad recently.

One interesting option is Packers free agent Tramon Williams, who was last seen getting burned for a game-winning, one-on-one touchdown to Jermaine Kearse. Williams will likely not be re-signed by the Packers as a 32-year-old corner. He still has some cover skills, and on a short-term deal, could be effective. Chris Culliver and Davon House could be additional options for Philadelphia, though neither would be considered a surefire fix at the position.

The team could also use an upgrade at safety, although veteran options are far and few between there as well. If Antrel Rolle or Troy Polamalu hits free agency, both could be stop-gap solutions for the Eagles in 2015. The team will also have an opportunity to look at defensive backs with their first-round pick, with a number of corners and/or safeties likely to be available. Landon Collins of Alabama could be one star player that may fall to the Eagles at that No. 20 spot.

Key Free Agents

The Eagles’ most important free agent is Jeremy Maclin, who bet on himself with a one-year contract last season. That bet paid off to the tune of 85 catches, 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns. Maclin is now in line for a very big long-term contract with plenty of guaranteed money. Our own Luke Adams noted that it wouldn’t make sense for Maclin to sign his extension just yet — with franchise tags ready to be passed out, Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant could be off the market by the time free agency opens. That would make Maclin’s best competition Randall Cobb, and could leave him as the most sought-after free agent at his position.

The only other major free agent worth keeping is edge rusher Brandon Graham. Graham never quite fit into the Eagles’ plans under Kelly’s regime. Graham would be a cleaner fit for a 4-3 defense where he could line up with one hand in the dirt. Despite high production, he has appeared in less than 1,300 snaps over the past three seasons. In 435 snaps in 2012, he ranked as the second-best defensive end in the league according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He graded positively again in 331 snaps in 2013 while transitioning to a 3-4 outside linebacker, and his 524 snaps in 2014 he rated out as the third-best player at his position. Graham will likely look for a big pay raise with more opportunity, and the Eagles might think it is better to let him go and groom underwhelming 2014 first-round pick Marcus Smith for a larger role on the defense.

The team will likely allow Nate Allen, Bradley Fletcher, Sanchez, and Brad Smith leave in free agency, or bring them back on short-term deals with little guaranteed money.

Possible Cap Casualties

Cary Williams‘ middling performance and the struggles in the secondary as a whole would be enough to consider moving on from the Super-Bowl-winning cornerback, and a cap hit of more than $8.16MM for 2015 will only make that decision easier. Cutting Williams would save $6.5MM on the cap, according to OverTheCap.com.

A tougher decision for the Eagles will be Trent Cole, who has been a stalwart of the team’s defense for years, and remains productive. A pass-rushing expert, Cole has been a premier – if underrated – contributor for his entire career as an Eagle. His 85.5 career sacks puts him just outside the top 10 for active players, and place him second in franchise history. However, releasing Cole this offseason would result in cap savings of $8.425MM in 2015, followed by savings of $11MM and $14MM the next two years. If the team still wants to keep him, a restructure might be a possibility for Cole, who has expressed interest in playing his entire career with the team.

DeMeco Ryans tore his Achilles tendon and missed most of the 2014 campaign, leaving Kelly to call him the “Mufasa” of the team’s defense. Whether or not that reference was used properly, there is no doubt that Ryans was a leader on the team and that his absence would be felt. The team will likely want him back in 2015, but a $6.9MM cap hit may be too high for an inside linebacker coming off a serious injury.

Finally, LeSean McCoy is the rare running back who holds the highest cap number on his team’s books. Not many would argue that he’s not deserving of being one of the highest-paid players at his position, but even still, a cap hit approaching $12MM leaves restructuring a possibility.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The Eagles will likely point to Fletcher Cox as a top priority this offseason. He graded out as a top five 3-4 defensive end in 2014 according to Pro Football Focus, alongside such names as J.J. Watt, Muhammad Wilkerson, Calais Campbell, and Sheldon Richardson. The team will almost certainly exercise its fifth-year option on Cox, but a long-term extension would be ideal.

Foles believes he should return as the starter in 2015, and if the Eagles agree, then an extension seems like a possibility. However, it’s not clear if the team is sold on the idea of Foles as its quarterback of the future. If he becomes available via trade, there will likely be potential suitors who believe in his abilities. The Eagles may covet a passer like Mariota, or another player more dynamic than Foles.

Overall Outlook

The Eagles are coming off a 10-win season that saw them narrowly miss the playoffs, and 2015 will likely represent a crossroads for Kelly’s regime. The club was able to stay afloat with the duo of Foles and Sanchez, but that shouldn’t mask the fact that the quarterback situation needs to be addressed. Of course, with the 20th pick in the draft and a lack of options in free agency, it will be extremely difficult to upgrade that spot. The dream would be Mariota falling, but that might just be a storyline that brings the city of Philadelphia false hope. A secondary option such as Brett Hundley far from guarantees an upgrade over Foles, now or in the future.

A more realistic spot to make significant upgrades is in the secondary, which held the entire defense back in 2014. Unfortunately for Eagles’ fans, the market for corners and safeties isn’t great this year after or Revis and Devin McCourty, who may not even become available. Players like Cromartie and Tramon Williams, or Byron Maxwell, Chris Culliver, and Davon House could be improvements, but adding one or two of those guys probably wouldn’t make the Eagles’ defense one of the top units in the league.

Coach Kelly will try his best to keep his team at double-digit wins and in the playoff hunt for a third straight year, but if he cannot return Foles to his 2013 form or find a better option, Kelly will have a hard time sustaining his early success over the long term.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Julius Thomas

February 14th, 2015 at 4:17pm CST by Sam Robinson

One of the more rapid rising stars in the game, Julius Thomas presents an interesting case in his first foray into free agency. The two-year starting tight end made next to no impact in his first and second seasons, hampered by lingering ankle maladies. But his ensuing two slates create a robust market for the athletic, yet frequently unavailable target.

Does Thomas’ value lie in being an athletic tight end with elite ball skills, a package the Broncos haven’t unleashed since Shannon Sharpe, who played under then-offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak for most of the latter half of his career? Or is he an injury-prone Peyton Manning product? Since the 26-year-old Thomas morphed into a red zone dynamo, with 12 touchdown receptions in each of the past two seasons, and has positioned himself as this market’s top tight end, teams will bid big to find out.Julius Thomas

But the best offer for the 2011 fourth-round pick might not come from the Broncos. Now transitioning back to Kubiak’s offense, which relies heavily on tight ends blocking and not splitting out wide as much, with multiple other dominant free agents to take care of — including Demaryius Thomas and Terrance Knighton — Denver may not be able to afford Julius Thomas’ services. He may not even be in large font on the Broncos’ offseason itinerary considering the scheme change and the numerous ancillary free agents from their 2011 draft class, which is easily the best under fifth-year GM John Elway‘s watch.

Undrafted Pro Bowl cornerback Chris Harris re-upped for 5 years and $42.5MM, and first-rounder Von Miller will play out his fifth-year option on a $9.7MM cap number next season from that class. But Thomas, left guard Orlando Franklin and free safety Rahim Moore (second round), middle linebacker Nate Irving (third) and in-line tight end Virgil Green (sixth) are all free agents who played key roles last season.

Thomas, who played for just $645K last year, has understandably been lukewarm to the idea of a hometown discount, something to which Demaryius Thomas and Knighton have been receptive. With Demaryius Thomas likely to be slapped with the franchise tag, as we discussed Tuesday, the Broncos will need to reach a long-term contract with Julius Thomas to keep him around. Even though Elway reiterated his desire to keep Julius Thomas in Denver in January, per Nicki Jhabvala of the Post, the former Big Sky basketball standout already turned down a deal that would’ve made him one of the league’s top four highest-paid tight ends, a source told Kils in October. With a projected $26MM+ in cap space and more than a third of their starters unsigned, the Broncos likely won’t bring back all of their top three free agents and may be stuck with just one after franchising Demaryius Thomas, should Knighton also receive a strong offer considering his career metamorphosis the past two years.

The case for the Broncos bringing back Julius Thomas depends on which version of Manning they think they’re getting back. The future Hall of Fame quarterback has inflated the numbers for plenty of pass-catchers over the past 18 years, but assuming he returns for his age-39 season — this probably will be the case after the QB iterated his desire to return Friday night — he will need as much firepower as possible to keep the Broncos on their current course. Thomas’ reputation as a bigger wide receiver who is ill-equipped for Kubiak’s system may not be entirely accurate, either. The 6-foot-4, 251-pound Division I-FCS product improved from 2013 when Pro Football Focus (subscription required) tabbed him as the NFL’s second-worst run-blocking tight end to last season when the site gave Thomas a positive grade and slotted him at No. 33 in the category — just two spots behind Rob Gronkowski.

Former Broncos head coach John Fox and OC Adam Gase in a way validated Thomas’ market value by orchestrating a dramatic overhaul of the offense — to a C.J. Anderson-heavy ground approach — the week after Thomas encountered ankle turmoil for the fourth straight season. Not that there weren’t additional factors in Manning’s decline in the season’s second half, but the Broncos’ offense didn’t look the same without its top touchdown target. Without Thomas at full strength, a level he didn’t return to after his latest injury, Manning had just two games with a quarterback rating over 86 — against the Dolphins and Chargers, respectively. This precipitous fall came after Manning (22 TD passes and just three interceptions in the Broncos’ first seven games) charted just one game under 110 in a stretch that wasn’t a bad imitation of his 2013 MVP effort. Thomas had nine TD grabs during Denver’s peak span and three multi-score showings.

The case against re-signing Thomas hinges on what the Broncos do with Knighton, how much they want to invest in the aforementioned 2011 draft class, how much money they allocate to reshape their offensive line and, perhaps most importantly, whether they feel the tight end’s availability justifies his likely high re-up price. As TheMMQB’s Peter King summarized last year, Thomas considered giving up football after a persistent ankle injury he sustained in 2011 dogged him throughout his first two seasons. Overall, ankle problems forced him to miss 28 games in four years. But teams with shaky tight end outlooks — the Raiders, Cardinals and Browns, to name a few — likely won’t have as much of an issue with Thomas’ negatives, considering a player with these numbers rarely reaches free agency.

If Jared Cook and Kyle Rudolph could ink $7MM-per-year deals within the last couple years — Cook as a free agent with production nowhere near Thomas’ — Thomas has a good chance to earn top-five money at the position. That top five currently ends with Rudolph and starts with Jimmy Graham‘s $10MM-per-year contract signed last year, per OverTheCap.com.

Re-signing Green ($645K in his fourth season last year) or someone like Dolphins free agent Charles Clay makes sense if the Broncos don’t want to meet Thomas’ salary wishes, but for a team whose title window depends heavily on the success of an aging quarterback with fading arm strength, it might be prudent to keep his main weapons around — especially the one who is Manning’s preferred option to finish off drives. The cap math adds up better for the Broncos if Manning renegotiates his salary — something we learned on Friday he could be willing to do — which is set for $19MM and a $21.5MM cap hit.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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