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Free Agent Market For Tight Ends

February 13th, 2015 at 10:27am CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to tight ends. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

Coming into the 2014 season, Cameron and Clay looked like potential top-10 tight ends in the NFL, but both players took a step back over the last few months. Cameron’s drop-off was particularly precipitous, due in part to concussion problems — the Browns tight end caught just 24 passes after racking up 80 receptions in 2013. Still, both players have proven they’re capable of being reliable pass-catchers, so I expect we’ll see them draw plenty of interest from teams that can’t afford Thomas.

Thomas, of course, is the crown jewel of this year’s free agent class, and while he’d be a lock to be franchised by many teams, the Broncos may not have the flexibility to make such a move, since they’ll likely to have to use that tag on Demaryius Thomas. Battling injuries himself down the stretch, the Denver tight end might have seen his stock dip a little after coming out of the gates on fire in 2014, but he should still easily land the biggest contract this winter of any player at the position — a top-five TE salary is definitely within reach.

As for Gresham and Paul, their career arcs look quite different thus far, though they find themselves in similar situations this offseason. Gresham has always put up solid receiving numbers for the Bengals, but has never fully fit in Cincinnati, especially with the team looking to give Tyler Eifert a larger role in the offense. Paul, meanwhile, was nonexistent in Washington’s passing game until 2014, when he broke out with 39 catches and 507 yards. With Jordan Reed still under contract in D.C., Paul may be the odd man out.

Other unrestricted options:

Clubs looking for a pass catcher at tight end should focus primarily on those players in the first group, because there aren’t many here that could be relied upon for consistent production. Still, TE is a position at which pass-catching isn’t necessarily the be-all, end-all to being an effective player, and several of the guys in this group can contribute positive value even without running routes.

According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Fells, Green, Pascoe, and Spaeth all graded among the league’s best run blockers at the position. In fact, buoyed primarily by their strong run-blocking performances, Fells, Green, and Spaeth all ranked among PFF’s top 20 tight ends, placing well ahead of notable receiving TEs such as Heath Miller, Antonio Gates, and Coby Fleener. A club may not want to head into the 2014 season with Fells atop its depth chart at the position, but he’s certainly a respectable No. 2 option.

2015 may also be the last chance for Finley to make a comeback — having missed the better part of the last two seasons due to neck issues, the former Packers tight end may simply decide to call it a career and try to collect on his insurance policy. However, if he’s cleared by doctors to return to the field, I’d expect him to try to catch on with another team this year, and if he can prove he’s healthy, his upside should intrigue suitors.

Restricted FAs:

Considering these three players have combined for 32 career receptions, I don’t expect the bidding on their services to be all that competitive this offseason. It would be a surprise if any of them even received a restricted free agent tender from their current clubs, though they could still return to those teams at a lesser salary.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

Offseason Outlook: Dallas Cowboys

February 12th, 2015 at 6:07pm CST by Zachary Links

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Tony Romo, QB: $27,773,000
  2. Tyron Smith, T: $13,039,000
  3. Brandon Carr, CB: $12,717,000
  4. Henry Melton, DT: $9,250,250
  5. Jason Witten, TE: $8,512,000
  6. Sean Lee, LB: $5,450,000
  7. Morris Claiborne, CB: $5,175,069
  8. Orlando Scandrick, CB: $4,351,250
  9. Barry Church, S: $3,250,000
  10. Mackenzy Bernadeau, G: $2,824,168

Notable coaching moves:

Draft:

Other:

Overview

As a youngster, did you grow up dreaming of becoming a right tackle? Is there a Fathead replica of your team’s starting left guard overlooking your couch? No, offensive lineman aren’t celebrated as much as the players at skill positions, but we all know how vital the o-line really is. After years of building the unit, the Cowboys’ offensive line helped propel them to the top of the NFC East.

Tony Romo, who has had his ups and downs in recent years, finished the year as the No. 6 quarterback in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). DeMarco Murray took advantage of those truck-sized holes created by the o-line and rushed his way to a career year. Dez Bryant cemented himself as one of the very best (if not the best) receivers in the NFL, lighting up opposing cornerbacks on a weekly basis. Meanwhile, the defense went from last in the league in 2013 to 19th overall in 2014 – not exactly the 1985 Bears, but a step up from being the “-Allas” Cowboys.

The Cowboys have reason to believe in 2015, but their electric offensive duo is eligible for free agency and there are numerous holes to address.

Positions Of Need

The Cowboys’ needs will depend heavily on what happens with Bryant and Murray and, by all accounts, the wide receiver is far more likely to return to the Cowboys than the running back. If Murray is not retained (we’ll discuss his situation in depth in a bit), there are a number of options that Dallas can turn to. It’s been long rumored that Jerry Jones would love to land Texas native Adrian Peterson. In fact, the two chatted over the summer and reportedly discussed the possibility.

“Well, I understand, Adrian,” Jones said. “I’d like that, too … Well, I love your story. I love your daddy’s story. I’ve always respected what you’ve been about. I’ve always been a fan of yours.”

Peterson would later downplay the sweet nothings whispered between the two but the mutual interest is abundantly clear. The Vikings, meanwhile, hold the cards and they could still push for 100 cents on the dollar in spite of AD’s off-field troubles from last year. Or, they might not be willing to discuss Peterson at all with Dallas. The last time these two franchises consummated a deal involving a franchise running back, the Cowboys came out ahead by a mile.

Alternatively, the Cowboys could turn to the draft for their next starting tailback. Georgia star Todd Gurley once seemed destined to be a top pick, but his 2014 ACL injury could put him within range for Dallas later in the first round. Beyond Gurley, Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon and Indiana’s Tevin Coleman are among the best backs on the board and both have drawn comparisons to Murray for their running style. In free agency, Dallas will find notables like Mark Ingram and the oft-injured Ryan Mathews. Ingram, of course, had a breakout season with the Saints in 2014 that was derailed a bit in the middle by a broken hand.

It sure doesn’t sound like the Cowboys will have to replace Bryant, but if they do, guys like Randall Cobb, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Brandon Marshall, Michael Crabtree, Mike Wallace, and more could be available on the open market. At this point, if Dallas does anything at wide receiver, it seems more likely that they would look into supporting players with Cole Beasley (restricted) and Dwayne Harris (unrestricted) in limbo.

On the other side of the ball, Dallas could have a ton of work to do with defensive linemen Nick Hayden, Anthony Spencer, and George Selvie all out-of-contract. Meanwhile, if Henry Melton remains on the roster through the first day of the 2015 league year, a three-year extension worth $8MM annually and $9MM guaranteed will kick in. Melton appeared to be a mortal lock to remain under that contract at one point last season, but finishing the season on IR has thrown that in flux.

Bruce Carter, Justin Durant, and Rolando McClain are all headed towards free agency, which could lead the Cowboys to go shopping for linebackers. Cornerback could also be a need for the Cowboys if Brandon Carr isn’t willing to restructure his deal.

Key Free Agents

Re-signing Bryant will be the Cowboys’ No. 1 priority this offseason. While there was a good amount of dialogue between the wide receiver and owner Jerry Jones, Bryant ultimately didn’t get an offer he liked enough during the season as he opted to gamble on himself. That bet paid off big time as Bryant turned in a career year with 88 receptions, 1,320 yards, and 16 touchdowns. Needless to say, keeping Bryant for the long-term won’t be cheap, and that means that the franchise tag is a distinct possibility. At an estimated $13MM, the franchise tag isn’t a drop in the bucket either, but Jones won’t hesitate to do it if the two sides can’t come to an agreement on a new deal. Of course, the very threat of the franchise tag could light a fire underneath Bryant’s camp.

Jerry loves his stars, but he’s apparently gun-shy about giving Bryant a big long-term deal because of his off-field issues. Bryant’s reps will likely seek a deal worth $12-14MM in average annual value, making the franchise tag something of a no-brainer. The Cowboys could be persuaded into making a multiyear pact happen if they get a break in guaranteed dollars, but I don’t think they’ll mind Bryant playing for his money once again.

Unfortunately, the game of football isn’t as fair to running backs. Murray also turned in a career year, but at this time it doesn’t sound like the Cowboys are willing to shell out big bucks to keep him. Recently, Jason Cole of Bleacher Report heard from sources that the reigning offensive player of the year should command between $7-10MM annually on a new deal. Meanwhile, a report from Ian Rapoport of NFL.com indicated that Dallas’ latest offer came in at about $4MM per season. There’s one heck of a bridge to gap between Murray and Dallas and the Cowboys might not be willing to meet him halfway. Still, Murray put on a ton of miles in 2014 and his fumbling issues were troubling and it’s possible that his market won’t be as hot as he expects.

On the offensive line, Dallas will have to figure out what to do at right tackle with both Doug Free and Jermey Parnell eligible for free agency. Free was ticketed to be the starter in 2014, but injuries mucked with those plans, opening the door for Parnell. The Cowboys would love to keep both, but that might not make budgetary sense for the team. If Free’s foot and ankle troubles appear to be behind him, it wouldn’t surprising to see him return while Parnell gets signed to be someone else’s starter.

Even though Dallas has serious uncertainty when it comes to its linebacking troupe, the club at least has the flexibility of Anthony Hitchens and can plug him in at any spot necessary. Still, in a perfect world, Dallas would retain McClain and put him in the middle, allowing Hitchens and the returning Sean Lee to take care of the outside spots. It seemed unlikely at the time he was acquired from the Ravens, but McClain turned out to be a rock for the Cowboys in the face of Lee’s season-ending injury. Keeping both Durant and Carter would be a solid play by the Cowboys but with Carter’s measurables, it’s not hard to see another team swooping in and paying more than Dallas would be comfortable with.

Possible Cap Casualties

With a cap hit north of $12.7MM, Carr will be out of Dallas unless he is willing to take a pay cut. Back in January, Jones made it clear that he’s not interested in a restructuring and instead wants a salary reduction.

“There’s an issue of going and borrowing some money, borrowing it in the sense of hedging, taking money from future years,” Jones said. “There’s an issue there. Carr played well this year and I’m not as critical of Carr as others. But that’s a lot of money. One thing that we just got to do is we’ve got to make sure that every way we can, we get the value for the money.”

Releasing Carr outright would save the Cowboys $8MM against the cap in 2015 but it would leave them with a $7.4MM burden the following year. Moving on from Carr would be doubly difficult since Morris Claiborne, another underachiever, is not guaranteed to be ready for the start of the 2015 season thanks to his torn patella tendon. It seems like a pay cut, even if it’s a modest one, would be in the best interest of both parties.

The Cowboys would probably like to welcome Melton back for another season but they’ll probably look to work out a new deal. A new contract for the 28-year-old defensive tackle would probably call for a big drop in guaranteed money with a reduced average annual value as well. Melton finished the year as the 14th ranked defensive tackle in the entire NFL, according to Pro Football Focus.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

Romo’s contract calls for a $27.77MM cap hit in 2015, before dipping to $17.64MM in 2016. Jones, as we mentioned when talking about Carr, is wary of shifting financial burden into future years to clear up the current cap situation. However, it’s hard to see Dallas really sticking to that plan considering the work that needs to be done this offseason. The Cowboys have a limited window to win with Romo under center and there’s no real succession plan in place for the 34-year-old (35 in April). Of course, at Romo’s age, an extension is probably off the table.

Recently, Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap looked at the Cowboys options when it comes to a possible restructuring for Romo and he found that there were two viable solutions. The first would be a restructuring where $7MM is converted into a signing bonus, rather than the maximum allowable figure of $16.03MM. That would create $5.6MM in cap space with a workable $14.2MM in dead money in 2017. Alternatively, Fitzgerald suggests that Dallas could take away from Romo’s massive 2015 base salary and shift that money over to the following year, where his current base is just $8.5MM.

Overall Outlook

After capturing their first NFC East title since 2009, it finally appears that things are falling into place for the Cowboys. In order to repeat, however, they’ll have to find a way to keep their needle-movers without compromising too much for future seasons.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Market For Wide Receivers

February 12th, 2015 at 8:54am CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to wide receivers. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

No other position has the same sort of star power at the top as this year’s free agent group of receivers does. In fact, in our last installment of 2015’s free agent power rankings, four of our top eight players were wideouts, with Bryant, Thomas, Maclin, and Cobb all making the cut.

Still, it’s probably fair to assume that Bryant and Thomas, at least, won’t reach the open market. Their respective teams have the franchise tag at their disposal, and intend to use it if a long-term agreement can’t be reached. Maclin and Cobb, on the other hand, may not warrant a tag, so they’ll be worth watching as free agency nears. If they make it to the open market, long-term deals worth $10MM+ annually aren’t out of the question, considering how many receiver-needy teams have cap room to spare.

While those four players are probably in a tier of their own, Smith isn’t far behind, and Crabtree is only two years removed from an 1,100-yard season. The rest of the list is a mix of reliable veterans (Royal, Washington, Wayne), and players with some upside (Britt, Nicks, Shorts), though teams likely won’t want to make too significant an investment on a guy from either of those groups.

Other unrestricted options:

You could make the case that Welker should be in the top tier of free agent wideouts this offseason, but his history of head injuries, combined with declining production, has him mulling the possibility of retirement, and I don’t think he’s the same guy he was even two or three seasons ago. Nonetheless, he’s one of the more intriguing names among this group, which features a number of players who are either past their primes or have yet to fully realize theirs.

If you’re looking for a player with some upside here, you could do worse than the two Raiders, Brown and Denarius Moore. Jernigan, who turns 26 this year, is also an interesting option — he was poised to assume a much larger role in the Giants’ offense in 2014 before a foot injury cut his season short. Williams also may have something left in the tank after a lost season in Buffalo, but a team shouldn’t invest more than a minimum-salary contract to find out.

In fact, that probably applies to most players on this list. There’s an outside chance a club could find an impact performer in this group, but most of these guys will end up no higher than third or fourth on a team’s depth chart. Others may not even rank that highly, contributing primarily on special teams or in the return game rather than an offense.

Restricted FAs:

It’s not easy to pry away a restricted free agent from a team that wants to keep him, and I assume that will be the case for the more noteworthy names among this year’s RFA wideouts. Guys like Beasley, Holmes, Johnson, Kearse, and Streater should pique the interest of teams in need of wideouts, but I imagine their current clubs will submit contract tenders to bring them back.

In my view, Holmes is the most interesting player in this group, but considering how much cap room the Raiders have, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Raiders placed a higher tender on the 26-year-old to discourage rival suitors from courting him. Typically, a minimum-level RFA tender is enough to scare off potential bidders, but for less than $1MM, Oakland could increase its offer to a second-round tender, meaning that any club hoping to sign Holmes would have to part with a second-round pick to land him.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

The Patriots’ Options For Darrelle Revis

February 11th, 2015 at 8:50am CST by Luke Adams

Several weeks ago, I took a closer look at the Lions’ options this offseason with Ndamukong Suh, whose contract situation is much more complicated than a typical free agent’s. Because Suh’s 2014 cap number was well over $22MM, using the franchise tag on the defensive tackle this winter would cost Detroit much more than it would cost – for example – the Cowboys to tag Dez Bryant, or the Chiefs to tag Justin Houston.

While Suh’s case is exceptional, the Patriots’ options with cornerback Darrelle Revis this offseason may be even trickier. The franchise tag isn’t an option for New England and Revis, since he remains under contract for 2015 rather than being eligible for free agency in March. But retaining the star corner won’t be as easy as simply keeping him on the roster. Let’s examine the options on the table for the Patriots and Revis as we try to determine what his future might hold….

Picking up his 2015 option:

When the Patriots signed Revis last March, the deal was structured in such a way that it was reported as essentially being a one-year, $12MM pact, despite technically being a two-year, $32MM agreement. Along with a $10MM signing bonus, which was prorated over two years, the contract included a modest $1.5MM base salary for 2014, a $7.5MM base salary for 2015, and a $12MM roster bonus if the former first-round pick remained on the Pats’ roster for a second season.Darrelle Revis

Throw in $500K annual per-game roster bonuses, and the upshot is this: Revis counted against New England’s cap for $7MM in year one of the deal. In year two, he’ll count for $5MM in dead money against the cap if he’s cut, or for $25MM if the Pats pick up his option. Having already paid him $12MM, the team would be on the hook for another $20MM in 2015 by keeping him around on the same deal.

While it initially appeared out of the question, the idea of simply picking up Revis’ option has gained some traction lately. Most recently, both Gary Tanguay and Chris Gasper of CSNNE suggested yesterday that they felt the Pats should consider exercising that option if the two sides can’t work out a longer-term arrangement.

Picking up the option sounds like a nice fallback plan on the surface, buying the club some time to negotiate an extension and ensuring that Revis sticks around to handcuff top opposing receivers. But in practicality, it’s extremely difficult to imagine the Pats being able to stomach such an exorbitant cap hit. For comparison’s sake, there were only two cap numbers in all of football in 2014 that were over $20MM — Suh’s $22.41MM figure, and Eli Manning‘s $20.4MM. If we narrow our focus to the Patriots, only Tom Brady had a cap hit of over $8MM, at $14.8MM.

Bringing back Revis is important, but history has proven that Bill Belichick‘s Patriots aren’t a team that retains a player at any cost. New England currently projects to be nearly $5MM over the cap for 2015, with Revis’ option on its books, and while it will be possible to cut some players and slide under the cap, keeping the cornerback around for a cap hit that’s worth $11MM more than Brady’s would seriously limit the club’s flexibility this offseason.

Patriots president Jonathan Kraft recently acknowledged that the second year of Revis’ deal is essentially a “placeholder,” which makes sense. When they finalized the contract a year ago, the Pats didn’t expect the 29-year-old to play the second season at that price, and even after a year in which the team won a Super Bowl and Revis ranked as one of the league’s top corners (PFF link), I’d be surprised if that stance changes.

Working out a multiyear extension:

If exercising Revis’ second-year option isn’t a viable solution and using the franchise or transition tag isn’t on the table, negotiating a multiyear extension looks to be by far the Patriots’ best bet. And with free agency less than a month away, I expect the club to do everything it can to finalize something with its top defensive back.

As I noted earlier, however, New England isn’t the sort of team that will lock up its players at any price. A long-term deal would have to provide value and flexibility for the Pats in addition to being worthwhile for Revis. Given the cornerback’s age (he turns 30 in July) and the Pats’ reluctance to splurge on any one player (even Brady is making markedly less than other top quarterbacks), I think it’s unlikely that the team will make an offer similar to the ones signed by players like Richard Sherman, Joe Haden and Patrick Peterson in 2014.

Even if guys like Haden and Peterson don’t necessarily have the same ability Revis does as a cover corner, their extensions will cover their prime years. There’s still room for improvement for those players as they enter their mid-20s — in Revis’ case, the concern would be that a drop-off may be around the corner, if not in the next year or two, than shortly thereafter. He’s still in great shape, but if the Pats have any concerns about his long-term outlook, the team may be reluctant to commit to a lengthy deal in the range of $13.5-14MM per year, like the ones signed by Sherman, Haden, and Peterson.

That may be fine with Revis, whose last couple deals have both been structured to allow his teams to escape after just a year or two. He has never been shy about betting on himself in the past, though there’s no guarantee that stance will change as he approaches 30 — banking on a big annual payday was a safe bet for most of his career, but if the veteran has a down year at age 31, for instance, there will be more uncertainty about his ability to bounce back and to once again rank among the NFL’s elite defenders.

Taking into account all those factors, a three-year deal in the range of $45MM with a sizable portion of guaranteed money seems like it could make sense for the Patriots. But would it make sense for Revis? If he plays hardball and forces the Pats to pick up his option, he’d guarantee himself $20MM for the 2014 season alone. Even if the team doesn’t exercise that option, he could hit the open market and potentially find another suitor (the Jets?) more willing to overpay him. Coming off another excellent season, Revis will have plenty of leverage — if he wants to return to New England, I think the two sides could work something out, but I’m skeptical that the Pats are willing to match the biggest offer he’d get on the open market.

Cutting him and letting him reach the open market:

If Revis does make it to free agency, that doesn’t guarantee he’ll play for a team besides the Pats in 2015. But it would certainly be a worst-case scenario for the prospect of Revis returning to New England, opening the door for the Jets – a team with a ton of cap space and a ton of interest in Revis – or another suitor to put a huge offer on the table.

A report yesterday indicated that the Jets will prioritize Revis over any other cornerback, including Antonio Cromartie, if he makes it to free agency, and it’s fair to wonder if the team itself is leaking word of its interest. After all, hinting that a big offer will be waiting for him in free agency seems like the best way to try to discourage Revis from agreeing to a new deal with the Pats.

While there’s been no indication yet what sort of contract the Jets – or any other team – might offer Revis, new GM Mike Maccagnan figures to be armed with nearly $50MM in cap room, so New York would certainly have the flexibility to make Revis an offer that matches or exceeds those long-term Sherman, Haden, and Peterson deals, making him the highest-paid corner in the game.

If the Pats hope to lock up Revis before free agency, it will probably take an offer that’s competitive with the one(s) waiting for the cornerback on the open market. As much as Revis may want to return to New England and help defend the club’s Super Bowl title, his track record suggests he’s unlikely to take a sizable discount to re-sign. Whether or not he and the Pats can find common ground on a deal that appeases both sides will be one of the top stories to watch as the free agent period approaches. The team has until March 10 to make its decision.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Market For Running Backs

February 10th, 2015 at 4:06pm CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to running backs. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

While the free agent market for quarterbacks lacks a real difference-maker, that’s not the case at running back. The position may have become devalued in recent years, but the lack of impact deals in free agency last winter could largely be attributed to the lack of impact players available. If the NFL’s leading rusher (Murray) hits the open market, he’ll do very well, despite potential concerns about his 2014 workload, or about a production drop-off behind a new offensive line.

Murray isn’t the only potential starter in this group. Mathews and Ingram have been inconsistent since entering the league as first-round draft picks, but have shown plenty of promise, and should provide value if they can stay healthy. Gore and Forsett will both be on the wrong side of 30 by the end of 2015, but are coming off very impressive 2014 campaigns, and I’d bet on them having something left in the tank.

Outside of Murray, the most intriguing name on this list might be Spiller. Like Mathews and Ingram, he has been plagued by injuries in recent years, but his big-play ability makes him very appealing, especially if he comes on the cheap. I could envision Spiller approaching free agency the same way that Jeremy Maclin did a year ago, taking a one-year deal with the hopes of having a big season and landing a more sizable contract the following year.

Rounding out this top tier: Bradshaw and Ridley, who will look to return from season-ending injuries; and Helu and Vereen, who will appeal to teams looking to add a receiving threat out of the backfield.

Other unrestricted options:

Most of the notable names on this list have huge question marks hovering over them as they prepare to enter the open market. McFadden has averaged 3.4 yards per carry or less for three consecutive seasons; Moreno is coming off elbow and ACL injuries that ended his year prematurely; Tate played for three different teams in 2014 and didn’t do much to impress at any of those three stops; and Rice’s production appeared to be on the decline even before he lost a season dealing with the aftermath of his domestic violence incident.

Are there worthwhile backups and change-of-pace options among this group? Sure. McKnight and Antone Smith are a couple of home-run hitters who could shine for the right team, and Powell has shown some potential. There are also several veterans on this list who could contribute on special teams, either in kick coverage or in the return game, which will give them a little more value than the more one-dimensional backs.

Still, given the going rate for running backs these days, many of these players will likely sign minimum-salary contracts with modest guarantees for the 2015 season, if they land with a team at all.

Restricted FAs:

In many cases, these young backs are insurance policies for veteran starters, and while they may not be as cheap as restricted free agents as they were during their first three seasons, their respective teams should have interest in bringing them back.

I anticipate that players like Cadet, Polk, and Dunbar, who have spent all three seasons with their current teams, will be good candidates for the low-end restricted free agent tender. Rainey and Todman should also receive tenders, and may be the backs in this group most likely to draw interest from rival suitors. Neither player figures to head into 2015 as the top running back on his team’s depth chart, but they’ve both been productive in their limited opportunities.

Asiata is perhaps the most recognizable name here, if only because his nine touchdowns in 2014 made him a popular – if unreliable – fantasy football commodity. The 27-year-old has only averaged 3.5 yards per carry in over 200 career attempts, and is older than most of the other players on this list. But with Adrian Peterson a good bet to be traded or released by the Vikings, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Minnesota bring back Asiata.

Previously:

Recap Of 2015’s Major NFL Coaching Changes

February 10th, 2015 at 9:00am CST by Luke Adams

As I pointed out last summer when I examined the longest-tenured head coaches in the league, a coach’s job is rarely safe in the NFL. At the time, more than half of the league’s head coaches had been with their current teams for two years or less, and since then, seven more clubs have made changes.

And if a head coaching position is tenuous, that’s doubly true for offensive and defensive coordinators. Not only do new head coaches typically bring in their own OCs and DCs, regardless of the previous coach’s performance, but teams will often replace a coordinator on one side of the ball or the other following a disappointing season by his unit. Over half the teams in the NFL will make a change at either OC or DC (or both) this winter.

We’ve been following all the latest updates on head coaches and offensive and defensive coordinators with our trackers, but as hiring season winds down, it’s worth rounding up all the changes in one spot. So here are 2015’s new head coaches, offensive coordinators, and defensive coordinators, along with 2014’s HCs, OCs, and DCs that have since found jobs elsewhere….

Head coaches:

Offensive coordinators:

Defensive coordinators:

Other 2014 head coaches with new jobs:

  • Jacksonville Jaguars: Hired former Bills HC Doug Marrone as assistant head coach and offensive line coach.
  • New Orleans Saints: Hired former Raiders HC Dennis Allen as senior defensive assistant.
  • San Francisco 49ers: Hired former Raiders interim HC Tony Sparano as tight ends coach.
  • University of Michigan: Hired former 49ers HC Jim Harbaugh as head coach.

Other 2014 OCs, DCs with new jobs:

  • Baltimore Ravens: Hired former Jets OC Marty Mornhinweg as quarterbacks coach.
  • Buffalo Bills: Hired former Bears OC Aaron Kromer as offensive line coach.
  • Jacksonville Jaguars: Hired former Bills OC Nathaniel Hackett as quarterbacks coach.
  • San Diego Chargers: Hired former Falcons DC Mike Nolan as linebackers coach.
  • San Francisco 49ers: Hired former Raiders DC Jason Tarver as senior defensive assistant and outside linebackers coach.
  • Tennessee Titans: Hired former Steelers DC Dick LeBeau as assistant head coach.
  • University of Alabama: Hired former Bears DC Mel Tucker as defensive backs coach.
  • University of Georgia: Hired former Rams OC Brian Schottenheimer as offensive coordinator.
  • University of Michigan: Hired former Jaguars OC Jedd Fisch as passing game coordinator, quarterbacks coach, and wide receivers coach.
  • Washington: Hired former Cowboys OC Bill Callahan as offensive line coach.
  • Washington: Hired former Giants DC Perry Fewell as defensive backs coach.

Offseason Outlook: New York Giants

February 9th, 2015 at 8:30pm CST by Zachary Links

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Eli Manning, QB: $19,750,000
  2. Victor Cruz, WR: $8,125,000
  3. Will Beatty, T: $8,050,000
  4. Mathias Kiwanuka, LB:$7,450,000
  5. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB: $7,250,000
  6. Prince Amukamara, CB: $6,898,000
  7. Jon Beason, LB: $6,691,666
  8. Geoff Schwartz, G: $4,975,000
  9. J.D. Walton, C: $3,625,000
  10. Jameel McClain, LB: $3,400,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 9 overall pick
  • Acquired seventh-round pick from Broncos for Brandon McManus.

Other:

Overview

Needless to say, 2014 was not a banner year for football in the Big Apple. The Giants came into the season with hope – and even gave us a few early flashes of something promising – but fell into a vicious mid-season slump that they could not recover from.

Entering the year, there was buzz about the Giants’ offense under newly-hired offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo. Quarterback Eli Manning had his worst season in 2013, having thrown a league-high and career-high 27 interceptions. McAdoo, who was pushed by the front office even though he might not have been head coach Tom Coughlin‘s first choice – was expected to breathe fresh air into the Giants offense with the kind of inventive play calling that helped guide Aaron Rodgers for the preceding two seasons. Instead, Manning improved only marginally while the running game continued to sputter.

The defense, meanwhile, didn’t exactly help matters. Perry Fewell‘s unit went from sixth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA in 2013 to 25th in 2014. Coughlin furiously went to bat for Fewell when talking to the media and, presumably, did the same behind closed doors, but it wasn’t enough to save his job. After parting ways with Fewell, the Giants welcomed Steve Spagnuolo back to his old job after six years away. Spags served as the Ravens’ secondary coach in 2014 and Football Outsiders, Baltimore finished 15th in DVOA against the pass which is really quite admirable when considering how banged up their defensive backs were. The Giants have confidence in Spagnuolo, but former pupils Michael Strahan, Justin Tuck, and Osi Umenyiora aren’t walking through that door. It remains to be seen what Big Blue will do between now and the fall, but it stands to reason that he’ll have to do more with less.

Positions Of NeedJason Pierre-Paul

If the Giants are unable to retain Jason Pierre-Paul this offseason, the defensive end position automatically becomes their top need by a mile. Without JPP, Big Blue is left with a skeleton crew of headed by Robert Ayers and Damontre Moore at the bookends. The Giants likely can’t find an equal to Pierre-Paul this offseason if he walks, but they’d have to do the best they can to fill his shoes. The Giants aren’t going to find a bonafide superstar defensive end on the open market, leaving them to explore possible trades and, more likely, the upcoming draft. This year’s class includes Nebraska’s Randy Gregory as well as Missouri’s Shane Ray, Kentucky’s Alvin Dupree, and Trey Flowers of Arkansas. At this time, Gregory is regarded as the pick of the litter, though it’s far from guaranteed that he’ll be on the board at No. 9.

The Giants will also need to bolster their offensive line which was battered by injuries in 2014. Geoff Schwartz will be welcomed back after playing in just two games last season and he was so sorely missed that the Giants just might throw him an old school New Jersey Devils-style ticker tape parade in the Meadowlands parking lot. His return will mean a lot to Big Blue, but there’s more work to be done. The Giants are expected to plug Weston Richburg in at center and use Justin Pugh at guard or tackle, leaving one spot open. Ideally, the Giants would shift Pugh to the interior line and go out-of-house for a right tackle solution. Failing that, the Giants could theoretically stand pat with what they have: a line of left tackle Will Beatty, Schwartz, center J.D. Walton, guard Weston Richburg, and Pugh. However, after watching the Cowboys soar in 2014 behind an all-world offensive line, one has to think that the Giants will try and follow suit. In the draft, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Giants target Iowa tackle Brandon Scherff.

Like the defensive end position, the Giants could be in serious need of a safety depending on what happens with free agent Antrel Rolle and, probably to a lesser extent, Stevie Brown and Quintin Demps. Rolle is proven, but at 32 it’s not clear how much the Giants will be willing to spend in order to keep him. Internally, the Giants could turn to rising sophomore Nat Berhe and rising junior Cooper Taylor at safety, but neither one has a really strong track record. Berhe is the more realistic option between the two, but he’s still regarded by many as being a little too green. If the Giants are ready/able to spend big, Devin McCourty could be a free agent option for them. The Pats star and former Rutgers notable could be interested in a homecoming, but he probably won’t go for a major discount on his first massive payday.

The Giants linebacking corps likely needs to be addressed since Mark Herzlich and Jacquian Williams are free agents while there are serious question marks about Jon Beason looking ahead to the fall. Jameel McClain could be plugged in to fill a hole and Devon Kennard was a bright spot for the Giants last season, but the Giants would like to get a little younger and faster in that group if at all possible.

Beyond that, the Giants can be expected to look into defensive tackles. Ndamukong Suh‘s camp made it known in the middle of last season that he would like to play in New York and the Giants would surely love to make that a reality for him. Of course, with greater needs elsewhere, Suh probably isn’t walking through that door. Still, after allowing 2,162 rushing yards and 4.94 yards per carry last season, it remains a need as Johnathan Hankins requires a qualified partner.

Key Free Agents

For a long time, many questioned whether Pierre-Paul was the same player that burst onto the national landscape with a brilliant season in 2011. JPP continued to give those critics fuel during the first half of 2014 before changing the script in the season’s final six games. The 25-year-old (26 at the end of February) registered nine sacks, five QB hits, and 15 QB hurries to close out the year, a perfect advertisement for himself as he gets set for his next contract. Out of 67 eligible players, Pro Football Focus (subscription required) rated Pierre-Paul as as the league’s sixth best 4-3 defensive end. Giants owner John Mara is confident that Pierre-Paul will be in New York in 2015, which could be an indication that the Giants are prepared to use the franchise tag on him if necessary. However, GM Jerry Reese would certainly prefer not to dedicate ~$15MM worth of cap space to the defensive end. As we touched on before, however, the pool of available DEs beyond No. 90 is rather weak. The Giants just might have to pay more than they’d otherwise be comfortable with if they want to have an aggressive defensive line next season.

Rolle will be a key free agent for the Giants due to their lack of battle-tested alternatives on the depth chart, but the veteran is not expected to entertain a hometown discount. He’s believed to be looking for a three-year deal and if the Giants don’t give it to him, another team probably will. Elsewhere in the secondary, cornerback Walter Thurmond will be a priority for the Giants. Although he missed a good chunk of the season, the Giants would rather retain him at a fair price rather than attempt to replace him.

Possible Cap Casualties

Mathias Kiwanuka has restructured his contract multiple times in the past in the name of the greater good. Still, at his advanced age, he’s still overpriced with a $7.45MM cap hit. More importantly, he’s a potential impediment to re-signing Pierre-Paul. Kiwanuka is one of the longest-tenured members of the team and a fan favorite, but this could be where he and the Giants part ways.

Running back Rashad Jennings could be a post-June 1st cut for the Giants in order to save $2.25MM of cap space, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise for him to stay. Jennings, of course, was one of the many, many players to miss time for the Giants in 2014 due to injuries. Punter Steve Weatherford has a $3.075MM cap number and the Giants could save $1.325MM if they drop him. Dropping defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins would save the Giants $2.25MM versus his cap number of ~$2.9MM and would give the Giants a chance to give more burn to their younger defensive linemen. Assuming we see a revamp of the offensive line, J.D. Walton could be shown the door to save about $3MM against the cap.

Many have isolated Beason as a possible cap casualty given his age, proneness to injury, and the $3.5MM they’d save by cutting him. However, there’s no one in-house to really take his place in the middle and they’d still have to eat a good amount of dead money to drop him. It wasn’t long ago that the Giants made Beason one of just a few of their own free agents to be retained. Surely, they still see some promise in him, even if he’s had trouble staying on the field. Beason only played five games in 2014.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

Manning represents the largest salary cap hit on the Giants’ 2015 roster and the Giants could approach him about a contract extension in order to lock him up beyond 2015 and to help carve out some additional space in the upcoming league year. On the surface, one would say that Manning should be content with a repeat of his previous deal which paid him an average of $16.25MM per season given his recent play. But (stop me if you’ve heard this before), the price tag for starting quarterbacks has risen dramatically over the last few years and it’s not hard to see Manning’s camp pushing for a bit of a raise. Are the Giants willing to forgive and forget about Manning’s interception-laden 2013 and marry themselves to him at an increased cost? Conversely, GM Jerry Reese could opt to play out the year with Manning, but that would mean less improvement across the board for 2015 and a possible rebuilding effort heading into 2016.

In a distant second place, Victor Cruz represents the second-highest cap hit on their roster at $8.125MM. Cruz has four lears left on his deal with an average cap hit of $9MM. The base salary climbs each season and this year he’s scheduled to make $6.15MM. That’s not an unreasonable number for a healthy Cruz, but no one knows how much salsa dancing he’ll be doing in the years to come. Cruz tore the patellar tendon in his right knee during the Giants’ October contest against the Eagles, ending his season. In those six games, Cruz logged 337 receiving yards and a touchdown. If the Giants want to play hardball, they might be able to convince Cruz to knock a couple million off of his salary by playing up his injury concerns and the emergence of Odell Beckham Jr. as a top receiver in the NFL. It would be a surprise to see the Giants cut the fan favorite, however, as that would only save them about $2.4MM in cap space.

Overall Outlook

The Giants, who have won two Super Bowl rings under the tutelage of Coughlin, have seen better days. Still, the NFC East isn’t exactly murderer’s row. Washington doesn’t look the part of a contender, no one knows which version of the Eagles will show up in 2015, and the Cowboys could be faced with replacing last season’s offensive player of the year. Much of how the Giants’ season goes will depend on whether they can keep Pierre-Paul in 2015 — and at what price. If JPP stays put without crippling the Giants’ cap room, then they can retool the roster in a hurry and get back to their winning ways.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Market For Quarterbacks

February 9th, 2015 at 2:32pm CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position, starting today with quarterbacks. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

Outside of Moore and Ponder – who have combined for more than 60 career NFL starts in past seasons – everyone in this group saw at least a little time in a starting lineup during the 2014 season. Of course, many of them didn’t finish the season as starters, or were only forced into duty due to injuries.

Nonetheless, if a club is looking to the free agent market for a veteran to compete for a starting job with its incumbent QB, this is probably the first group of players that team will consider. Sanchez and Hoyer are perhaps the top available options here, as both players showed several flashes of effectiveness as they led their respective teams to records of .500 or better during their starts.

Other intriguing names on this list include Mallett, who backed up Tom Brady for several seasons before getting a brief look in Houston; Locker and Ponder, 2011 first-rounders who were relegated to backup roles during the final year of their rookie contracts; and Moore, who has been one of the league’s most highly-paid No. 2 QBs for the last two seasons.

Other unrestricted options:

Whether you’re looking for a veteran who can play in a pinch (Campbell, Hasselbeck) or a younger option with some upside (Taylor, Tolzien), there’s something for everyone in this group — albeit not many names that inspire excitement.

McCoy and Clausen had some good moments during their limited playing time in 2014, and Jackson hasn’t been terrible during his stints as a starter. Still, none of those three players should be more than backups at this point in their playing careers, and the same goes for virtually everyone else on this list as well. In some cases, these guys were listed third on their respective teams’ depth charts.

I’d expect a good percentage of these players to return to their current teams, or to follow an old coach or coordinator to his new club. When it comes to backup quarterbacks, familiarity with an offensive system is crucial, and would certainly be a tiebreaker if the gap in talent between two players is marginal. Flynn might be the best example of this, as he hasn’t had much success anywhere besides Green Bay.

Restricted FAs:

Davis and Lindley saw some action in 2014, but neither player was overly effective — Lindley, in particular, had a ton of trouble moving the Cardinals’ offense when he was forced into action after injuries knocked out Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton. Generally, if a team wants to keep a restricted free agent, that team has most of the leverage, so if one of these players is wearing a different uniform in 2015, I expect it’ll be because his club had little to no interest in re-signing him.

2015 Free Agent Stock Watch Series

February 9th, 2015 at 8:59am CST by Luke Adams

2015’s NFL free agent period is just a few weeks away, as this year’s free-agents-to-be will be eligible to speak to other teams starting on March 7, and can sign contracts with rival suitors as of March 10 at 3:00pm central time.

Over the next few weeks, Pro Football Rumors will be heavily focused on free agency, and that means taking a closer look at several of the higher-profile players who could hit the open market next month. Our Free Agent Stock Watch pieces will explore what a player brings to a club, what sort of earnings he can expect on his next contract, teams that could be in the market for the player, and where the player might want to end up, along with any other relevant factors.

The list of players we’ve profiled so far is below, and will grow exponentially over the next several weeks. This post, which can be found on the right sidebar under “PFR Features,” will be updated each time we publish a new Free Agent Stock Watch piece, so be sure to check back to read up on the latest additions. The players below are listed in alphabetical order.

Offseason Outlook: Miami Dolphins

February 8th, 2015 at 4:08pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Mike Wallace, WR: $12,100,000
  2. Branden Albert, T: $10,725,000
  3. Cameron Wake, DE: $10,450,000
  4. Brent Grimes, CB: $10,000,000
  5. Dannell Ellerbe, LB: $9,850,000
  6. Reshad Jones, S: $7,760,000
  7. Mike Pouncey, C: $7,438,000
  8. Brian Hartline, WR: $7,350,000
  9. Cortland Finnegan, CB: $6,475,000
  10. Randy Starks, DT: $6,000,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

For most of the last decade, the Dolphins have come to embody the word “mediocre” — since winning the AFC East in 2008, Miami hasn’t won more than eight games in a season, nor have they posted more than ten losses in any single campaign. After posting a pedestrian 8-8 record in 2013, owner Stephen Ross made some changes at the top, firing longtime general manager Jeff Ireland, and, after a protracted search process, hired Buccaneers executive Dennis Hickey as the club’s new decision-maker.Joe Philbin

Hickey and the rest of the front office used free agency to make several upgrades, signing tackle Branden Albert to fortify an offensive line that had come under fire, retaining cornerback Brent Grimes and defensive tackle Randy Starks to aid the team’s defense, and adding veterans like Cortland Finnegan, Knowshon Moreno, and Earl Mitchell to round out the roster. In the draft, the Dolphins picked tackle Ja’Wuan James and receiver Jarvis Landry in the first two rounds, selections that would prove astute.

But despite the new additions, Miami once again finished with a .500 record, good for third place in the division. There were positive developments to be sure, as third-year quarterback Ryan Tannehill took to new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor’s scheme and posted his best season to date, completing 66.4% of his passes for 4,045 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. The rest of the offense, buoyed by contributions from Landry, running back Lamar Miller, and a revamped offensive line, finished 7th in DVOA. The defense was a different story, however, as the Fins finished 21st in yards allowed, 20th in points allowed, and 18th in DVOA. The unit struggled in both aspects of defense, placing 20th against the pass and 18th against the run per DVOA.

Front Office Changes:

Rumors abounded that head coach Joe Philbin’s job was in jeopardy, as he’d posted just a 23-25 record during his three seasons at the helm. Many speculated that Ross, rebuffed by Jim Harbaugh three years before, would once again try to lure the 49ers coach to South Beach. However, Ross announced after Miami’s penultimate game that Philbin would indeed be retained for a fourth season.

Hickey, by all accounts, had an excellent rookie season as GM, hitting on both his free agency additions and his draft picks. Still, the Dolphins opted to make a front office change for the second consecutive year, hiring former Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum as executive vice president of football operations, a role which guarantees him control over the club’s personnel. Tannenbaum and Philbin will report directly to Ross, while Hickey, who was retained as something of a “GM-in-name-only,” will report to Tannenbaum. Tannenbaum had mixed results in New York, and even if the move proves fruitful, it’s odd that he was able to wrest control from Hickey after the latter’s successful debut.

Key Free Agents:

Regardless of the front office hierarchy, Tannenbaum and Hickey will need to work collaboratively to make decisions on several critical key free agents. Topping that list is defensive tackle Jared Odrick, who heads into his sixth season after a very successful 2014. He started all 16 games along the interior, finishing as the 19th-best DT among 81 qualifiers per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He posted just one sack, but in Kevin Coyle’s 4-3 scheme, Odrick’s role isn’t to get after the quarterback. The 27-year-old will be part of a strong free agent defensive tackle class, and might price himself out of Miami’s range.

The Dolphins have interest in re-signing tight end Charles Clay, and were reportedly to planning to offer the 25-year-old a contract proposal in the coming weeks. Coming off a season in which he caught 58 passes for 605 yards and three touchdowns, Clay could probably ask for $4MM/year on the open market. The franchise tag looms as an option for the Fins, but as PFR’s Luke Adams noted last month, Miami’s tight cap space situation means it probably can’t commit to such a high salary for one year.

Miami also has decisions to make along the offensive line, where Samson Satele and Daryn Colledge are impending FAs. Satele filled in for the injured Mike Pouncey after the latter was injured during training camp, and stayed at center even when Pouncey returned. Colledge, signed late in the summer, was the starting left guard, playing 763 snaps. Both Satele and Colledge were below-average players in 2014, and the Dolphins probably woudn’t want either to return as a starter, but perhaps one could be re-signed to act as depth.

Finally, three veterans present interesting free agent cases for the Dolphins. Backup quarterback Matt Moore is viewed as one of the better No. 2 options in the league, and could be aiming to find a starting role in free agency, especially given the dearth of QB options available on the market and in the draft. As such, James Walker of ESPN.com wrote last month that there’s a good chance Moore finds work elsewhere, while Miami searches for a more affordable backup.

Two other veterans — running back Knowshon Moreno and safety Louis Delmas — are each coming off injuries, as Moreno tore his ACL in October and Delmas did the same in December. Both were turned in competent performances in 2014, but given that each suffered such a serious injury, I wouldn’t expect to see either return.

Possible Cap Casualties:

The Dolphins are currently projected to enter the offseason with just $1.69MM in available cap space, which could make roster maneuvering difficult. As such, the club could opt to make several cuts to free up financial room. Undoubtedly, receiver Mike Wallace is the name to watch when it comes to a potential release. After signing a five-year, $60MM deal prior to the 2013 season, Wallace has failed to live up to expectations, failing to top 75 receptions or 1,000 yards in either of his two seasons in Miami (though he did catch 10 touchdowns in 2014). His cap figure tops $12MM in each of the next three seasons, and Miami could create $2.5MM of space by releasing him now, or $6.9MM by designating him as a post-June 1 cut.

Ousting Wallace as a pre-June 1 release would still leave $9.6MM of dead money on Miami’s books in 2015, so the front office will have to decide if that extra $2.5MM in savings is worth the move. Given Wallace’s production and the team’s fiscal issues, it just might be. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported today that Hickey and Wallace recently met, and suggested that the club won’t make a decision on Wallace without first considering all its options, which suggests that a pay cut could be in the cards.

Two more pass-catchers — Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson — could also be shown the door, as the Dolphins would save a combined $6.41MM by cutting both. Neither was overly effective last year, as Hartline caught only 39 passes while Gibson saw just 29 receptions. The Wallace situation will likely play a role in the duo’s future in Miami. If Wallace is retained, especially at a lower salary, both could be cut, as Miami could fully turn the No. 2 role over to Landry. If Wallace is released, however, one or both of Hartline/Gibson could stick around to provide a veteran presence in the WR corps.

Linebacker Dannell Ellerbe is almost surely going to be released — he’s set to count $9.85MM against the cap next year, and the Fins would save $5.65MM by cutting him. He missed almost all of last season with a hip injury, but posted a -13.5 PFF grade in 2013, his first year in South Beach. Miami could turn to either Jelani Jenkins, or fellow FAs Jason Trusnik of Kelvin Sheppard, to take Ellerbe’s role.

Another defender, the veteran cornerback Finnegan, is also on the chopping block after rating as the No. 74 CB in the league among 108 qualifiers last season per PFF. At 31, he’s due a $5.45MM base salary in 2015, and would leave just $1MM in dead money if cut. Finnegan is just a season removed from being ranked as the second-worst corner in the NFL per PFF, so it’s fair to say he probably won’t be retained.

Positions Of Need:

The problem with potentially releasing so many veterans is that the Dolphins would subsequently need to find replacements, which could be tough given the team’s cap problems. Miami’s secondary is an area of concern, as the the club needs to find a safety to pair with Reshad Jones, and could look to add a No. 2 corner if Finnegan is cut. The likes of Byron Maxwell and Devin McCourty will be out of the Dolphins’ price range, but lower-tier alternatives like Chris Culliver, Perrish Cox, Chris Conte, or Dwight Lowery could be viable.

Guard is another position that could use a talent infusion. With Pouncey likely to take over at center, the Dolphins won’t want to count on Colledge as a starter next year. Second-year lineman Billy Turner or veteran Shelley Smith might be able to take one of the guard spots, but a free agent addition at the position wouldn’t be a bad idea. 49er Mike Iupati will be too expensive, but James Carpenter, a former first-round pick, could make some sense. Veteran lineman Todd Herremans could be cut by the Eagles, and he could be an option for the Dolphins given his familiarity with Lazor and his scheme.

It’s conceivable that Miami could rid itself of Wallace, Hartline, and Gibson, leaving a glaring need at receiver. The Dolphins won’t be able to make a play for Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant, and Torrey Smith isn’t a schematic fit — he’s essentially a Wallace-clone, and Tannehill struggles throwing the deep ball. Jeremy Maclin (who, like Herremans, is familiar with Lazor) would be a match, but he also might cost too much. Miami might have to settle for someone like Kenny Britt or Hakeem Nicks, veterans who have shown flashes of talent but have struggled in recent years.

The club could look to add reserve talent at both quarterback and running back, where Moore and Moreno will likely not be retained. Bringing in a young-ish option like Christian Ponder or Blaine Gabbert could make some sense, or the team could add a veteran such as Tarvaris Jackson to solidify the No. 2 QB role. At running back, Miller proved he could thrive as the starter, but it’s rare that a single player is entrusted with the RB role. Signing a veteran like Bilal Powell or Antone Smith, or giving a chance to a rehabbing Stevan Ridley, could be intriguing for Miami.

More than likely, Miami will have to use the draft to fill its holes, as free agency might prove to costly. Hickey hit on several of his picks last season, and while regression to the mean suggests he probably won’t be as successful in 2015, his performance warrants the opportunity to head another draft. Teaming with Tannenbaum, Hickey will need to find several more successful rookies who can contribute for the next several years at low costs.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions:

The Dolphins will have to decide whether to exercise their fifth-year option on Tannehill, and given his success last season, it’s probably a foregone conclusion that they will. The next step would be entering negotiations on a long-term extension. Tannehill improved greatly in 2014, and another exemplary year in 2015 would only increase his asking price, so it could be smart for Miami to lock him up now. A deal in the Andy Dalton/Colin Kaepernick mold, with a large total commitment but modest guarantees, would make sense for both sides, as would an AAV in the neighborhood of $13-14MM.

Pouncey’s deal is up after 2015, making him a candidate for extension, as well. His brother, center Maurkice Pouncey of the Steelers, recently signed a five-year, $44MM extension to remain in Pittsburgh. Maurkice is considered the better player, so Mike shouldn’t warrant as high a salary, but a new deal that pays him $6MM per year would be reasonable. Miller is also entering his walk year, but given the fungibility of running backs, it might make sense to simply let him play the year out rather than try to extend him.

Overall Outlook:

2015 is unquestionably an important year for the Dolphins. Another 8-8 (or worse) season would probably be the last straw for Philbin. His firing could mean the removal of Lazor, which would force Tannehill to master yet another offensive scheme. Cap space remains a problem in Miami, so a series of cuts probably need to be made in order to free up financial room. The team had success in the free agent market last season, and another solid round of signings, combined with a second consecutive high-quality draft, could set the Dolphins up for years to come. A Tannehill extension is the primary issue on the table, but if the club misses the playoffs yet again in 2015, any offseason wins will be quickly forgotten.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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