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Offseason Outlook: New York Jets

February 4th, 2015 at 6:02pm CST by Zachary Links

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. D’Brickashaw Ferguson, T: $11,698,670
  2. Percy Harvin, WR: $10,500,000
  3. Nick Mangold, C: $10,407,100
  4. Muhammad Wilkerson, DL: $6,969,000
  5. Eric Decker, WR: $6,500,000
  6. Chris Johnson, RB: $5,250,000
  7. Breno Giacomini, T: $5,125,000
  8. Dee Milliner, CB: $3,453,028
  9. Quinton Coples, OLB: $2,800,890
  10. Chris Ivory, RB: $2,750,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 6 overall pick
  • Owe conditional draft pick to the Seahawks for Percy Harvin. The pick is a fourth-rounder for now, but could become a sixth-rounder if Harvin doesn’t remain on the Jets’ roster.

Other:

Overview

After a 4-12 season and their fourth straight year without a playoff appearance, the Jets decided to overhaul their coaching staff and front office. Now, they’re poised to make some significant changes to their on-field personnel.

Last offseason, cap-conscious GM John Idzik left upwards of $20MM in cap space unused as he plotted for a future that he would not be a part of. The offseason was not without its splashes, of course. The Jets added Broncos star Eric Decker on a multi-year deal, signed Michael Vick to compete with Geno Smith at quarterback, and landed running back Chris Johnson after he fell into their laps late in the offseason. The injection of star power helped them continue to dominate the back pages of New York tabloids, but it did little to help improve their on-field product.

Outside of the Jets’ defensive line, it’s hard to isolate one unit that really succeeded in 2014, but the secondary was especially brutal. Dimitri Patterson was brought aboard in the offseason to serve as one of the team’s starting cornerbacks, but he allegedly went AWOL during training camp and was ultimately released. Of course, having Patterson in the fold probably wouldn’t have moved the needle much anyway. On the other hand, someone like Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie could have been a difference maker, but he signed with the other tenants of MetLife Stadium after the Jets insulted him with a lowball offer.

On offense, Smith followed up a lukewarm rookie season with a sophomore campaign that was even worse. Smith admittedly didn’t have a great stable of wide receivers beyond Decker to start the year, but things didn’t get much better for him after Percy Harvin came to town. Moving on from Smith would be a rather easy decision if it weren’t for the absolute dearth of alternatives available this offseason.

Coaching/Front Office Changes

Rex Ryan went 26-38 over the last four seasons, yet you’d be hard-pressed to find a coach more popular with the local media. New York scribes readily came to Ryan’s defense throughout the Jets’ putrid 4-12 campaign. That could be because Ryan wasn’t given much to work with or because Ryan was a guaranteed gold mine every time he approached a hot microphone — or maybe a bit from both columns. All of the positive ink couldn’t save Ryan’s job at the end of the day, however, and the head coach was shown the door at the end of the season along with Idzik.Todd Bowles

Two years ago, Idzik convinced Jets owner Woody Johnson that he was the man for the job based on his salary cap expertise. When Idzik was ousted, the Jets replaced him with former Texans college scouting director Mike Maccagnan. Maccagnan, who was championed by team consultant Charley Casserly, isn’t much of a numbers guy but has a wealth of football knowledge and a keen eye for player evaluation.

While the Jets went in a different direction at GM, they went with another defensive-minded coach to replace Ryan when they hired former Cardinals defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. The 51-year-old is now the Jets’ sixth straight head coach with a defensive background as Ryan, Eric Mangini, Herm Edwards, Al Groh, and Bill Parcells were all defense-first coaches. That may seem like an exceptionally long time to emphasize defense, but one can hardly blame Gang Green for being wary of going back to an offensive-minded HC after two dreadful years with Rich Kotite. Bowles will be assisted by Kacy Rodgers on defense while ex-Bills coach Chan Gailey will be responsible for the offensive playcalling.

With Bowles on the sidelines, Maccagnan can expect to get a similar directive to the one that Ryan was giving Idzik: build the defense. This time, there’s a good chance the GM will actually listen.

Positions Of Need

In a perfect world, the Jets would use their considerable cap room or their No. 6 overall pick to find a new starting quarterback. In the real world, well, there’s not much out there. The Jets stank on ice in 2014, but they probably didn’t lose enough to get within range of Oregon product Marcus Mariota or FSU star Jameis Winston. There are other noteworthy names at the position, including UCLA’s Brett Hundley and Baylor’s Bryce Petty, but none would be worth taking with their first round choice. In fact, many aren’t sold on Mariota or Winston as franchise quarterbacks and the outlook is even worse for the rest of the crop. In free agency, the Jets will find a group headlined by Brian Hoyer and old friend Mark Sanchez. Sanchez looked like a top-10 QB when things were clicking in Philadelphia and looked more like his 2012 version when things hit the skids. Even if Sanchez looked like the second coming of Joe Montana for the entire season, it would be hard to see the Jets making a play for him.

The trade market, meanwhile, could hold a couple of interesting options for the Jets. John Fox sounds like he’d be on board with having Jay Cutler as his quarterback in Chicago, but that’s far from certain at that point. Last season was a disaster for the Bears on both sides of the ball, but Cutler has proven himself to be one of the better signal callers in football when he has the right pieces around him. Meanwhile, in Washington, Robert Griffin III‘s future is as uncertain as ever. It wouldn’t be hard to see RGIII in a pair of green-and-white striped socks, but he would probably have to compete for the starting job against Smith in camp.

Whether the Jets make a major addition under center remains to be seen, but it’s a mortal lock that they will add a notable cornerback this offseason. Former Jet Antonio Cromartie has a fan in Bowles and he has made no secret about his desire to return to New York. “My door is always open to returning,” Cromartie said late last month. “Everybody knows I didn’t want to leave. I’m going to keep my door open and see what happens.” Of course, the big fish this offseason will be Darrelle Revis if the Patriots decline his $20MM team option and he tests the open market. That reunion once seemed unthinkable, but the Jets (and Rex Ryan‘s Bills) reportedly have their sights set on him. Beyond those familiar faces, the Jets could look into the likes of Byron Maxwell, Brandon Flowers, Chris Culliver, and Kareem Jackson. Jackson, of course, shares a Houston connection with Maccagnan. Getting Dee Milliner back in the lineup will help things, but the Jets will have to go out-of-house to really lock down the cornerback spots.

Elsewhere in the secondary, the Jets will look to add a new free safety with impending free agent Dawan Landry likely heading elsewhere. Landry had his moments in 2014, but he was a poor complement for the hard-hitting Calvin Pryor. Pryor does his best work hanging out around the line of scrimmage and leveling the kind of hits that were more common in the NFL ten years ago. Landry, meanwhile, isn’t a top-notch coverage option and that meant that Pryor couldn’t really demonstrate his skill set. With a different free safety, the Louisville product could make a significant impact in 2015, provided that he doesn’t rack up too many penalty flags. It should be noted that while Landry might not be the best fit for the Jets, he actually graded out as the ninth-best safety in the NFL last season according to PFF.

The Jets seemingly solved their issues at wide receiver when they acquired Harvin midseason. The eminently talented athlete would be the ideal No. 2 to Decker, if not for his hefty contract. While Harvin is owed $10.5MM for 2015, his salary is non-guaranteed and he can be dropped without salary cap ramifications. Maccagnan has a different approach than Idzik, but it doesn’t take a cap guru to know that’s a massive cost for the oft-injured and mercurial Harvin. If the Jets do want to dole out a top-10 wide receiver salary, they could get bold and go for the likes of free agent Demaryius Thomas, if he hits the open market. Going a little (or a lot cheaper), Gang Green could explore someone like Michael Crabtree, though he also comes with a history of injuries and abrasive behavior. Better yet, the Jets could use the No. 6 pick on the top receiver in the draft, Alabama’s Amari Cooper.

Key Free Agents

The Jets have a great number of free agents this offseason but only a few could be viewed as pivotal. David Harris stands as one of the best inside linebackers on the open market this offseason and he could be open to taking a little bit less to play for a winner. Meanwhile, it’s not hard to see Rex Ryan luring him to Buffalo. Defensive tackle Damon Harrison‘s contract is also up, but he’s a restricted free agent. The 26-year-old, one of the Jets’ few bright spots in 2014, is likely to receive the max tender.

Running back Bilal Powell has looked good at times, but he’s not irreplaceable and there’s no guarantee that the new regime will want him back. Safety Jaiquawn Jarrett (restricted) could also be retained after a solid season, including a heroic effort in the Jets’ Week 10 win over the Steelers.

Possible Cap Casualties

As mentioned earlier, Harvin could be shown the door rather than kept f0r his $10.5MM salary. Cutting Harvin wouldn’t necessarily mean parting ways with him, of course, as the Jets could look to work out a more team-friendly deal. Never say never, but Harvin could find it difficult to land a multi-year deal at an AAV that would put him in the top 15 of wide receivers, especially when considering that the quality of the market at the position. The Jets could release him and instead look to sign him to a one-year pillow deal for less money, but then again, there will be other suitors looking to do the same. It should also be noted that keeping Harvin means that the Jets would be sending a fourth-round choice to Seattle rather than a sixth-round pick.

Many expected that the Jets would put Chris Johnson‘s soft hands to good use as a security blanket for Smith in 2014. Aside from a few games, however, we didn’t see CJ2K catch many balls out of the backfield. When you factor in Johnson’s January arrest, his declining speed, the new regime in New York, and the roughly $3.5MM they’d save by bouncing him, it’s very possible that Johnson could be let go this offseason.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

One of the few silver linings to the Jets’ 2014 season was the play of Muhammad Wilkerson. The Jets have the Temple product under contract through 2015 after exercising his fifth-year option, but they don’t want to let him reach the open market after the season. In 2012, the 25-year-old graded out as the second-best 3-4 defensive end in 2012 behind superstar J.J. Watt, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). In 2013, he recorded 64 tackles and 10.5 sacks and, per PFF, he played more defensive snaps (1,067) than any other 3-4 DE. This past year, Wilkerson recorded six sacks and five pass deflections in a 13-game season as he disrupted opposing offenses in both facets of the game. The Jets want to get to the table with Wilkerson and his agent, but they’ll have to address their main areas of need first.

Exercising Wilkerson’s fifth-year option cost the Jets ~$6.97MM and doing the same for linebacker Quinton Coples would likely cost them more. Would that be worthwhile for the Jets after watching him struggle at times with the transition from defensive end to linebacker? Coples had a career best 6.5 sacks in 2014, but they’ll probably take their chances and let him play out his final season. The Jets have until May 3rd to make the call on Coples.

Overall Outlook

The Jets cleaned house at the end of the 2014 season with a clear desire to wipe the slate clean. With a significant number of players heading towards free agency, the Jets have a chance to really shake things up. They can be expected to spend big on a cornerback, but they won’t find themselves in playoff contention without a significant upgrade at quarterback. The Jets could shoot for the moon by trading for Cutler or one of the top two quarterbacks in this year’s draft, but they could also wait until next offseason and treat 2015 as a transitional year. Jets fans are restless, but the bar has also been set low, so Maccagnan & Co. won’t have to go all out unless directed otherwise by ownership.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2015 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates: NFC North

February 4th, 2015 at 8:51am CST by Luke Adams

The deadline for assigning a franchise or transition tag on a 2015 free-agent-to-be is less than a month away, and we’re in the process of taking a look at players who are candidates to be tagged this year. Last week, we examined all four AFC divisions, covering the East, North, South, and West. This week, we’re shifting our focus to the NFC — we kicked things off on Tuesday with the East and we’ll tackle the North today. Here’s a breakdown of the franchise and transition tag candidates for the Bears, Lions, Packers, and Vikings:

Chicago Bears:

  • Candidates: Stephen Paea
  • Odds of being used: Unlikely
  • The Bears have a ton of pending free agents, but most of them are either non-core players, or longtime contributors who are no longer realistic candidates to be tagged, such as Charles Tillman and Lance Briggs. I don’t expect Chicago to use either of its tags, but if there’s one option out there, it’s probably Paea, whose impressive 2014 campaign may have been overlooked by many due to the defense’s poor overall performance. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) graded Paea as the league’s 11th-best defensive tackle, marking him down for 47 overall quarterback pressures, a lofty total for an interior lineman — among DTs, only Ndamukong Suh (57) and Kyle Williams (49) had more. It probably won’t take a franchise tag to retain Paea, but he should be a priority for the Bears if they have a spot for him in Vic Fangio‘s new defensive scheme.

Detroit Lions:

  • Candidates: Ndamukong Suh, Matt Prater
  • Odds of being used: Possible
  • You could make a case for Suh as the league’s top free-agent-to-be this offseason, which would normally mean the franchise tag makes a ton of sense. In Suh’s case though, his 2014 salary was so high that the cost of a franchise tag would be astronomical — nearly $27MM. As such, a long-term extension will be the Lions’ preference, but tagging Suh could be a last resort. If the star defender isn’t tagged, Prater may be considered, since he made 87% of his field goals for the club after a shaky debut. Still, considering they picked him up off the scrap heap just a few months ago, the Lions likely won’t have to tag the kicker to bring him back. Nick Fairley and Rashean Mathis are other regulars who may be briefly considered, but neither appears to be a viable option.

Green Bay Packers:

  • Candidates: Randall Cobb, Bryan Bulaga
  • Odds of being used: Possible
  • Cobb and Bulaga are players Green Bay would almost certainly like to have around for the 2015 season, and the wideout is the stronger candidate for a franchise tag than the offensive lineman. Although Bulaga has developed into a reliable right tackle for the Packers, the position just isn’t one that gets big money — as Over the Cap’s data shows, the highest-paid right tackle in the NFL (Gosder Cherilus) averages just $7MM per year, and a franchise salary would be significantly higher than that. Cobb, on the other hand, is coming off a season in which he recorded 91 receptions, 1,287 receiving yards, and 12 TDs. Those are No. 1 WR numbers, and Cobb is just 24 years old, so the Packers may be willing to pay him like one of the league’s best wideouts for a year while they try to work out a longer-term deal that’s worth a little less annually. Cornerback Tramon Williams is another solid contributor who might warrant fleeting consideration for a tag.

Minnesota Vikings:

  • Candidates: None
  • Odds of being used: Very unlikely
  • Defensive regulars Jasper Brinkley and Tom Johnson are among the club’s contributors eligible for free agency this offseason, but Minnesota doesn’t have a key free agent worth an eight-digit salary for 2015.

2015 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates: NFC East

February 3rd, 2015 at 8:55am CST by Luke Adams

The deadline for assigning a franchise or transition tag on a 2015 free-agent-to-be is less than a month away, and we’re in the process of taking a look at players who are candidates to be tagged this year. Last week, we examined all four AFC divisions, covering the East, North, South, and West. This week, we’re shifting our focus to the NFC, starting with the East. Here’s a breakdown of the franchise and transition tag candidates for Dallas, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington:

Dallas Cowboys:

  • Candidates: Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray
  • Odds of being used: Likely
  • Rolando McClain, another Cowboys free-agent-to-be, might be a viable candidate for a tag at another position, but as an inside linebacker, he’d be subject to the pricier franchise salary assigned to an outside linebacker, making it too expensive to really consider. That leaves Bryant and Murray as possible candidates, and it seems probable that one of the two will receive a tag. Bryant, who will be Dallas’ No. 1 priority in free agency, is the likelier option, but if he and the Cowboys work out a long-term extension within the next few weeks, it would make sense to consider franchising Murray.

New York Giants:

  • Candidates: Jason Pierre-Paul
  • Odds of being used: Possible
  • Pierre-Paul came on strong in the season’s second half, increasing his overall sack total to 12.5. JPP was having a good year even without the sacks, playing particularly well against the run, but that sack figure is what improved his earning potential as he neared free agency. A former first-round pick, Pierre-Paul only turns 26 this month, and has a chance to be the best pass rusher to reach the open market, depending on what happens with Ndamukong Suh and Justin Houston. That’s a valuable asset to keep around, so if the Giants can’t work out a long-term deal with him, franchising him could be the team’s best course of action.

Philadelphia Eagles:

  • Candidates: Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Graham
  • Odds of being used: Possible
  • Maclin perhaps isn’t in the same tier as top free-agent-to-be wideouts Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas, but he certainly should head up the second tier, along with Randall Cobb. A year ago, Maclin turned down a five-year offer from the Eagles, choosing to bet on himself with a one-year contract that could significantly increase the value of a multiyear deal this offseason. That decision paid off, as the 26-year-old posted career highs in receptions (85), receiving yards (1,318), and touchdowns (10), and now it might be the Eagles that prefer to just stick to one year. If it comes down to having to offer Maclin a five-year, $50MM+ deal or locking him up at the franchise salary for one year, the club may favor the latter. As for Graham, he’s probably not a truly realistic candidate for a tag, since he still hasn’t become more than a part-time player in Philadelphia, but when he sees the field, he has played very well — Pro Football Focus (subscription required) had Graham down for 53 total quarterback pressures this year in just 524 defensive snaps, ranking him as the league’s third-best 3-4 outside linebacker.

Washington:

  • Candidates: Brian Orakpo
  • Odds of being used: Very unlikely
  • As I observed when I discussed the Steelers and Jason Worilds, if a team is willing to tag a player once, and he plays well in the following season, it makes sense to at least consider it again. In Orakpo’s case though, the edge defender was struggling even before a torn pectoral wiped out the second half of his season, recording just 0.5 sacks in his first seven games. 2014 second-round pick Trent Murphy is a younger, cheaper alternative to Orakpo, so more likely than not, Washington will simply let Orakpo walk if he wants a lucrative deal.

Revisiting PFR’s 2014/15 NFL Predictions

February 2nd, 2015 at 2:45pm CST by Luke Adams

Back in early September, eight members of the Pro Football Rumors writing team submitted predictions for the 2014/15 NFL season, forecasting the league’s playoff teams, award winners, and Super Bowl champion. Five months later, some of those picks look prescient, while others should probably just be forgotten entirely.

Still, in the interest of accountability, we’ll take a look back today at a few of those predictions to see which ones hit or missed the mark. Let’s dive in….

The good:

  • While no one correctly predicted all six, we did fairly well as a group identifying the AFC playoff teams, with Rob DiRe, Matt Feminis, Ben Levine, and Rory Parks nailing five of the six.
  • Zach Links’ postseason predictions looked off-the-wall back in September, but he forecasted the NFC better than anyone, correctly picking five of six postseason participants, including the surprising Cowboys. Speaking of those Cowboys, Zach was also the only one of us to see DeMarco Murray‘s Offensive Player of the Year award coming.
  • Rob and Zach correctly picked multiple award winners, with Zach also predicting J.J. Watt would win Defensive Player of the Year, while Rob had Watt as DPOY and Aaron Rodgers as MVP.
  • One of the only silver linings in a series of bad predictions from me? I projected Aaron Donald as the Defensive Rookie of the Year.
  • Six of us had the Patriots playing in the Super Bowl, while Matt and Ben Levine each called New England as this year’s champion. Rory and David Kipke had the Seahawks as the NFC’s representative in the Super Bowl.

The bad:

  • As a group, we picked four different Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates and six Coach of the Year options, but none of them were eventual winners Odell Beckham Jr. or Bruce Arians.
  • Besides Zach, none of us correctly predicted more than half of the NFC’s playoff teams, with most of us just getting two of six. Disappointing seasons – or finishes – from the Saints, Eagles, 49ers, and Bears contributed to our struggles in the NFC.
  • Of those NFC underachievers, New Orleans burned us the most — seven of us thought the Saints would play in the NFC title game, four of us thought they’d make the Super Bowl, and Rob and I both had them as our champions. Whoops.
  • Among our predicted award winners who didn’t have the seasons we anticipated: Drew Brees, Tyrann Mathieu, Brandin Cooks, and Jadeveon Clowney.

The ugly:

  • I was high enough on the Buccaneers in the preseason that I gave them the nod for the second Wild Card spot in the NFC. Instead, Tampa Bay will pick first overall in this spring’s draft after a 2-14 campaign.
  • While Zach’s outside-the-box choices paid off in the NFC, his pick of the Jets to win the AFC East – led by Coach of the Year Rex Ryan – didn’t exactly pan out.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Nick Fairley

February 1st, 2015 at 3:54pm CST by Dallas Robinson

With the offseason around the corner, the Lions’ most pressing concern from a roster standpoint is undeniably the impending free agency of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who topped the most recent edition of our 2015 Free Agent Power Rankings. Reports had indicated the Detroit would consider all the options at its disposal to retain Suh, and today Chris Mortensen of ESPN reported that the Lions are in a good position to re-sign the All-Pro. But because Suh is expected to receive a contract that rivals the $100MM pact between J.J. Watt and the Texans, the Lions probably won’t be able to keep its other talented defensive tackle, fourth-year player Nick Fairley.Nick Fairley

Assuming a $140MM cap, the Lions will have approximately $15.4MM of 2015 cap space with which to work. Depending on how Suh’s potential extension is structured, much of that space could be already be spoken for. Mortensen’s report indicated that receiver Calvin Johnson could restructure his contract to create more financial flexibility for the club, allowing the Lions to re-sign Suh and add even more talent. Regardless, cap space in Detroit figures to be tight, leading Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press to tweet today that Fairley returning to the Motor City is a “long shot.”

Of course, the Lions could have had Fairley under team control for the 2015 season had they opted to exercise his fifth-year option last May. Because it selected Fairley in the first round of the 2011 draft, Detroit could have retained Fairley next season for a base salary in the neighborhood of $5.5MM. General manager Martin Mayhew & Co. opted to decline the option, and explained the decision as a motivational tactic, hoping to push Fairley into performing at high level in 2014. The maneuver created something of a Catch-22 — though Fairley did perform well last season, the Lions have now allowed him to hit free agency a year earlier than was needed.

Utilizing the fifth-year option decision as a strategy to motivate Fairley was an understandable move at the time, as the former 11th overall draft pick had failed to live up to expectations. The Auburn product started just 22 games during his first three seasons in the NFL, posting 12.5 sacks over that span. He had a nice season in 2012, grading as the fifth-best defensive tackle among 85 qualifiers per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). In ’13, however, Fairley slipped to to No. 31 per PFF, as his run defense grade slipped significantly.

In 2014, Fairley was playing at perhaps his highest level yet before suffering a sprained MCL and PCL in Week 8 — he didn’t play again the rest of the season. Despite his limited amounted of snaps (297), he still placed as the league’s 18th-best DT per PFF; his grade would have been better save for is -4.0 penalty mark. Fairley’s absence on the Detroit defense was tangible — though the unit ranked third in DVOA, it placed seventh in weighted DVOA, which more heavily factors more recent performance.

Fairley will be a part of a relatively strong free agent defensive tackle class, but assuming Suh remains in Detroit, Fairley would have a claim to the No. 1 spot at the position. He’s undoubtedly a top-five choice among DTs, with Terrance Knighton, Jared Odrick, and Dan Williams also intriguing FAs for clubs looking for interior defensive line help. Williams is a 3-4 nose tackle, so he probably won’t interest the same teams that look into Fairley; Knighton, as well, is more of a space-eater. Odrick is probably the most similar competitor among free agent tackles, and it’s notable that Fairley and Odrick produced the top two pass-rushing grades among FA defensive tackles, per PFF.

Given his uneven career performance and his recent injury history, Fairley certainly isn’t in line for a Watt/Suh/Gerald McCoy-type contract that averages more than $12MM per year. The Geno Atkins deal, with an AAV of roughly $10.7MM, is probably out of reach as well. Linval Joseph‘s five-year, $31.25MM pact with the Vikings, signed last offseason, is pretty clearly the floor for Fairley. Joseph was a bit younger than Fairley at the time he inked his contract, but Joseph had never played to the level that Fairely has demonstrated he’s capable of. As such, Fairley will probably be looking for a five-year deal with an AAV that pushes $7MM, with guarantees in the neighborhood of $13-14MM.

Fairley shouldn’t suffer from a lack of suitors, as clubs that perhaps had their eye on Suh can turn their attention to Fairley, provided Suh stays with the Lions. Teams such as the Raiders, Jaguars, Bengals, Broncos (should they lose Knighton), and Falcons (depending on scheme) all make sense for Fairley, who just turned 27 years old. He’s spent his career in a 4-3 defensive front, and given his pass-rushing acumen, it would likely serve him to stay in that scheme. But at 6’4″ and more than 300 pounds, he could conceivably play end in a 3-4 look, and interest clubs like the Chargers, Colts, and Titans, but again, his talents play up in a 4-3. Additionally, if former Lions head coach Jim Schwartz lands a role with a team, it will be interesting to see if he lobbies to bring in Fairley, his ex-pupil.

Fairley said back in August that he’d like to stay with the Lions, but given the massive contract that Suh will garner, it seems wholly unlikely Detroit can keep both its defensive tackles. The club was already spending the second-most on its defensive line in 2014, and that figure would surely rise with new contracts for both Suh and Fairley. Free agency now presents that most likely (and tantalizing) route for Fairely, who should do well on the open market.

PFR Originals: 1/25/15 – 2/1/15

February 1st, 2015 at 2:45pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • Luke Adams looked the franchise tag candidates on each AFC team; check out the summaries of the East, North, South, and West.
  • PFR readers believe Cowboys receiver Dez Bryant is the top 2015 free agent — he received about 34% of the vote, while Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh garnered roughly 31%.
  • In another poll, PFR readers’ responses pointed to the extremely close matchup in today’s Super Bowl, as about 51% of voters picked the Seahawks to win their second consecutive title tonight. Thanks for voting!

2015 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates: AFC West

January 30th, 2015 at 4:32pm CST by Luke Adams

The deadline for assigning a franchise or transition tag on a 2015 free-agent-to-be is a little more than a month away, and we’re in the process of taking a look at players who are candidates to be tagged this year. We examined the AFC East on Tuesday, the AFC North on Wednesday, and the AFC South yesterday, before shifting our focus to the West today. Here’s a breakdown of the franchise and transition tag candidates for the Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders, and Chargers:

Denver Broncos:

  • Candidates: Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Terrance Knighton
  • Odds of being used: Likely
  • Even after signing cornerback Chris Harris to a lucrative contract extension earlier this season, the Broncos have a handful of impact players eligible for free agency. Demaryius Thomas is the most likely to be tagged, but if he and the Broncos can quickly reach a long-term agreement, there are other guys who shouldn’t be overlooked. Julius Thomas saw his stock dip a little when he missed time late in the season, but the tight end price tag is modest compared to most positions.

Kansas City Chiefs:

  • Candidates: Justin Houston, Rodney Hudson
  • Odds of being used: Likely
  • Like the Broncos, the Chiefs have a number of contributors eligible for free agency, including tackle Ryan Harris, linebacker Josh Mauga, and defensive back Ron Parker. Houston and Hudson are the two best candidates for a franchise tag though, and of those two, Houston represents the much likelier option. The only question would be whether the NFL’s sack leader would be considered a defensive end or a linebacker for salary purposes — in 2014, the defensive end franchise salary was nearly $2MM higher.

Oakland Raiders:

  • Candidates: Stefen Wisniewski
  • Odds of being used: Unlikely
  • The Raiders should do everything they can to lock up Wisniewski, but the franchise tag will be an absolute last resort. Offensive linemen are all grouped together for franchise purposes, so Oakland would have to commit to a left tackle salary for the center if he’s tagged. While the Browns used the transition tag on Alex Mack last year, Mack is arguably the league’s best center, and for the most part, the position just isn’t worth that kind of investment. I’d expect Wisniewski to land a deal in the neighborhood of $5-7MM per year.

San Diego Chargers:

  • Candidates: King Dunlap, Brandon Flowers
  • Odds of being used: Possible
  • There are bigger names headed to free agency in San Diego, including running back Ryan Mathews and veteran pass rusher Dwight Freeney, but Dunlap and Flowers are probably the two free-agents-to-be the Chargers should value most. Dunlap has emerged as an above-average left tackle in recent years, and given the holes elsewhere on the offensive line, his presence would benefit Philip Rivers going forward. As for Flowers, Pro Football Focus (subscription required) graded him as one of the league’s best cornerbacks before injuries slowed him down in the second half. A franchise tag salary would be an overpay for either player, but it’s an option San Diego should at least consider if extensions can’t be agreed upon.

2015 Franchise Tag Candidates: AFC South

January 29th, 2015 at 2:34pm CST by Luke Adams

The deadline for assigning a franchise or transition tag on a 2015 free-agent-to-be is less than five weeks away, and we’re in the process of taking a look at players who are candidates to be tagged this year. On Tuesday, we examined the AFC East, and yesterday, we turned our attention to the AFC North, where the Ravens and the Steelers look like the teams most likely to make use of a tag. Today, we’ll shift our focus south, breaking down the franchise and transition tag candidates for the Texans, Colts, Jaguars, and Titans….

Houston Texans:

  • Candidates: Kareem Jackson
  • Odds of being used: Unlikely
  • Jackson, who has been a starter at cornerback in Houston since being selected in the first round of the 2010 draft, is an underrated asset for the team. Still, a year ago, corners like Vontae Davis, Sam Shields, and Aqib Talib went untagged, so it’s hard to imagine the Texans franchising Jackson. Linebacker Brooks Reed and right tackle Derek Newton are among the other solid contributors Houston should look into re-signing, but like Jackson, neither player is worth an eight-digit salary for 2015.

Indianapolis Colts:

  • Candidates: None
  • Odds of being used: Zero
  • The Colts, like the Texans, have useful players eligible for unrestricted free agency — safety Mike Adams, defensive lineman Cory Redding, and longtime Indianapolis wideout Reggie Wayne will need to sign new contracts if they intend to continue their careers. But none of the team’s top impact players are free-agents-to-be, which is great news for a club with $30MM+ in projected cap room.

Jacksonville Jaguars:

  • Candidates: None
  • Odds of being used: Very unlikely
  • No team projects to have more cap space this offseason than the Jaguars, who could have upwards of $63MM in spending room. That’s one reason we shouldn’t rule out the possibility of a franchise tag — the team could easily afford it. However, for the tag to make sense, there needs to be a viable candidate, and it’s hard to find one on Jacksonville’s list of pending free agents. Linebacker Geno Hayes and defensive back Alan Ball are probably the Jags’ best UFA-eligible performers, but both players only appeared in about half the club’s defensive snaps, so it’s hard to make a case for them as franchise tag candidates. And it’s even harder to make a case for players like wideout Cecil Shorts and defensive end Tyson Alualu.

Tennessee Titans:

  • Candidates: Derrick Morgan, Brett Kern
  • Odds of being used: Possible, but unlikely
  • The Titans have a number of starters eligible for free agency, including Morgan, Kern, Michael Roos, and Ryan Succop. And like the Jaguars, they project to be among the top five teams this offseason in terms of cap space, giving them the flexibility to use the franchise tag if needed. Roos may be headed for retirement, and tagging either of the two special-teamers – punter Kern and kicker Succop – would likely be a last resort. That’s especially true of Succop, who had a down year in 2014. Morgan is the club’s strongest candidate. He has thrived in recent years as an edge rusher in 3-4 and 4-3 schemes, and despite modest sack totals, he recorded 49 total quarterback pressures last year and ranked among the league’s top 10 3-4 outside linebackers, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Those perennially average sack numbers, along with a perception that he hasn’t lived up to his first-round billing, should keep Morgan’s price down enough that the Titans won’t have to tag him, but he and Kern (a top-10 punter, per PFF) are the most viable options in Tennessee.

2015 Franchise Tag Candidates: AFC North

January 28th, 2015 at 8:57am CST by Luke Adams

The deadline for assigning a franchise or transition tag on a 2015 free-agent-to-be is less than five weeks away, and we’re in the process of taking a look at players who are candidates to be tagged this year. On Tuesday, we examined the AFC East, identifying the Patriots, with safety Devin McCourty and kicker Stephen Gostkowski eligible for free agency, as the most likely team to make use a tag. Today, we’ll shift our focus north, breaking down the franchise and transition tag candidates for the Ravens, Bengals, Browns, and Steelers….

Baltimore Ravens:

  • Candidates: Pernell McPhee, Torrey Smith
  • Odds of being used: Possible
  • McPhee and Smith are both solid contributors, with McPhee in particular providing plenty of value to the Ravens in 2014 — Pro Football Focus (subscription required) graded him as the league’s second-best 3-4 outside linebacker, behind sack leader Justin Houston. Still, McPhee was only a part-time player, appearing in just 540 defensive snaps, barely over half of what Houston played. For that reason, he may not be the most viable candidate for a tag, but he shouldn’t be ruled out. Smith, on the other hand, can probably be dismissed as an option — his production took a step backward in 2014 after the arrival of Steve Smith, and his 49 receptions and 767 yards were career lows. Kicker Justin Tucker would be a strong candidate if he were eligible for unrestricted free agency rather than restricted.

Cincinnati Bengals:

  • Candidates: None
  • Odds of being used: Zero
  • A few recognizable names, such as Jermaine Gresham and Mike Nugent, are scheduled to hit the open market for the Bengals, but none of the club’s prospective free agents are core players that absolutely must be retained.

Cleveland Browns:

  • Candidates: Brian Hoyer, Jordan Cameron
  • Odds of being used: Unlikely
  • At different points in 2014, the idea of using a tag on Hoyer or Cameron looked entirely reasonable, but both players’ stocks dropped toward the end of the season. If Hoyer is brought back, it would likely be to compete for a starting job, which isn’t worth a franchise salary that could exceed $18MM. The tight end tag will be worth less than half that, but after an injury-plagued and ineffective 2014 campaign, Cameron will almost certainly have to settle for a more modest deal.

Pittsburgh Steelers:

  • Candidates: Jason Worilds
  • Odds of being used: Possible
  • The Steelers used the transition tag on Worilds a year ago, and in his first season as a full-time starter in 2014, he was arguably just as good or better, so it’s absolutely within the realm of reason that the team would do it again. Still, tagging a player for a second time means that his salary will increase by at least 20% (in Worilds’ case, that means a raise to at least $11.705MM), and the Steelers have a handful of other contracts to address this offseason, including a potential extension for Ben Roethlisberger. I do expect Pittsburgh to make every effort to retain Worilds, but the club may push a little harder for a long-term deal this time around, which would increase cap flexibility and the ability to spend elsewhere this winter.

2015 Franchise Tag Candidates: AFC East

January 27th, 2015 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

One game remains on the NFL’s calendar for the 2014/15 season, but for teams besides the Seahawks and Patriots, the offseason has already begun. And one of the first tasks on most clubs’ offseason to-do list involve the franchise and transition tags. As our list of important offseason dates shows, teams can assign their franchise or transition tag to a player beginning on February 16, and will have until March 2 to make use of one of those tags.

Franchise and transition tags are tools that allow teams to keep free-agents-to-be off the open market. Our glossary entry on the subject goes into greater detail, but essentially, a player receiving either tag can’t sign freely with a rival suitor — the exclusive franchise tag prohibits the player from even negotiating with another team, while the non-exclusive franchise and transition tags ensure that the player must sign an offer sheet, which his previous club would have the opportunity to match.

Franchising a player means tendering him a one-year contract offer — he can accept and sign that offer, or attempt to work out a longer-term arrangement with his club. The salary for the one-year offer is determined using a formula that looks at the highest-paid players at each position, and is often exorbitant. Because it can be tricky to accommodate a franchise or transition salary within the cap restraints, not all teams will make use of the tags this offseason. Last year, for instance, only six clubs took advantage of the opportunity, with four teams using the franchise tag while two others used the transition tag.

Still, most teams around the NFL have one or two players that warrant at least passing consideration for one of the tags. Over the next couple weeks, we’ll take a look around the league, division by division, identifying which players on each of the NFL’s 32 teams might be candidates for the franchise tag in 2015. We’ll start today with the AFC East — let’s dive in….

Buffalo Bills:

  • Candidates: Jerry Hughes
  • Odds of being used: Unlikely
  • Running back C.J. Spiller and safety Da’Norris Searcy are among the free-agents-to-be that the Bills might look to re-sign this winter, but only Hughes is truly a viable candidate for the tag. The pass-rushing specialist has been excellent for Buffalo, recording consecutive seasons of double-digit sacks, but the price for his tag may be simply too high — even if he were considered an outside linebacker rather than a defensive end, Hughes would still likely cost at least $12MM for 2015. That may not be doable for the Bills, considering how much money the team has already invested into its other standout defensive linemen.

Miami Dolphins:

  • Candidates: Charles Clay, Jared Odrick
  • Odds of being used: Unlikely
  • Clay and Odrick are solid players, and the franchise prices for tight ends and defensive tackles aren’t bad relative to many other positions. Still, the Dolphins don’t have a ton of cap space to work with, and committing big money to either Clay or Odrick on a one-year deal isn’t a prudent use of that space. If Miami wants to retain them, both players can probably be locked up for lower per-year salaries.

New England Patriots:

  • Candidates: Devin McCourty, Stephen Gostkowski
  • Odds of being used: Possible
  • The price for a franchised safety is less than $10MM, which certainly isn’t outrageous for McCourty, who has developed into one of the more consistently productive players at his position. Gostkowski, meanwhile, has been one of the league’s most reliable kickers for the last several years, and would cost about $4MM to franchise. Bill Belichick and the Pats are notoriously willing to let players go when their cost outweighs their benefit, but McCourty and Gostkowski are still effective enough that the team will likely at least consider tagging one or the other.

New York Jets:

  • Candidates: David Harris
  • Odds of being used: Unlikely
  • The Jets will certainly have plenty of cap room to work with this offseason, but without an ideal franchise candidate, the team will likely choose to pass on the tag. An inside linebacker, Harris is coming off a deal that paid him $9MM annually, but he just turned 31 and the ILB position has seen its value decrease a little in recent years. Dawan Landry, a top-10 safety in 2014, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), makes for an intriguing under-the-radar candidate, but not a very realistic one.
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