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PFR Originals: 2/1/15 – 2/8/15

February 8th, 2015 at 2:15pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

2015 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates: Recap

February 7th, 2015 at 9:58pm CST by Luke Adams

As our list of important offseason dates shows, teams can assign their franchise or transition tag to a player beginning on February 16, and will have until March 2 to make use of one of those tags.

Franchise and transition tags are tools that allow teams to keep free-agents-to-be off the open market. Our glossary entry on the subject goes into greater detail, but essentially, a player receiving either tag can’t sign freely with a rival suitor — the exclusive franchise tag prohibits the player from even negotiating with another team, while the non-exclusive franchise and transition tags ensure that the player must sign an offer sheet, which his previous club would have the opportunity to match.

Franchising a player means tendering him a one-year contract offer — he can accept and sign that offer, or attempt to work out a longer-term arrangement with his club. The salary for the one-year offer is determined using a formula that looks at the highest-paid players at each position, and is often exorbitant. Because it can be tricky to accommodate a franchise or transition salary within the cap restraints, most teams won’t make use of the tags this offseason. Last year, for instance, only six clubs took advantage of the opportunity, with four teams using the franchise tag while two others used the transition tag.

Over the last couple weeks, we’ve been taking a closer look at players who may qualify for a tag in 2015. Here are the results of that series:

Viable candidates:

Other possible candidates:

Extreme long shots:

Candidates by division:

2015 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates: NFC West

February 7th, 2015 at 6:33pm CST by Luke Adams

The deadline for assigning a franchise or transition tag on a 2015 free-agent-to-be is less than a month away, and we’re in the process of taking a look at players who are candidates to be tagged this year. Last week, we examined all four AFC divisions, covering the East, North, South, and West. This week, we’ve shifted our focus to the NFC — we kicked things off on Tuesday with the East, tackled the North on Wednesday, and looked at the South on Friday. Today, we’ll turn to the West, breaking down the possible franchise and transition tag candidates for the Cardinals, Niners, Seahawks, and Rams:

Arizona Cardinals:

  • Candidates: Antonio Cromartie
  • Odds of being used: Unlikely
  • A handful of Cardinals regulars on the defensive side of the ball are eligible for free agency next month, including defensive tackle Dan Williams, and linebackers Sam Acho and Larry Foote. While I don’t expect all of them to bolt, it’ll be interesting to see if any follow former defensive coordinator Todd Bowles to New York, where he’ll coach the Jets. Cromartie is probably the most noteworthy free-agent-to-be on the roster, but even though he had a better year in 2014 than he did in 2013, it’s hard to imagine the cornerback’s $4MM salary jumping up to an eight-digit figure via the franchise tag.

San Francisco 49ers:

  • Candidates: Mike Iupati
  • Odds of being used: Unlikely
  • The 49ers have multiple players who may have been strong candidates to be tagged in past seasons, such as wide receiver Michael Crabtree and running back Frank Gore. Cornerbacks like Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox were also solid for San Francisco in 2014. But Iupati is the only player I can imagine the Niners tagging, and even then it’s an extreme long shot. Franchise tags for offensive lineman aren’t split up by position, so the club would have to pay Iupati, a guard, like a left tackle to tag him, which isn’t realistic — especially when the team has done such a good job building depth on its line.

Seattle Seahawks:

  • Candidates: Byron Maxwell
  • Odds of being used: Unlikely
  • A recent report suggested that Maxwell may be seeking $12-13MM per year on his next deal, and if the Seahawks felt like he could realistically land that sort of contract, the team would have to strongly consider using a tag. However, that figure seems awfully high for a cornerback who is effective, but not in the same class as teammate Richard Sherman. In any case, Seattle doesn’t have a ton of cap flexibility, and still needs to get something done with Russell Wilson as he heads into a contract year. Retaining Maxwell may be a luxury that the team can’t afford, especially at a franchise salary.

St. Louis Rams:

  • Candidates: None
  • Odds of being used: Extremely unlikely
  • Wide receiver Kenny Britt, right tackle Joe Barksdale, and quarterbacks Shaun Hill and Austin Davis are among the notable players who are nearing free agency. None are worth more than fleeting consideration for a franchise or transition tag though.

2015 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates: NFC South

February 6th, 2015 at 5:01pm CST by Luke Adams

The deadline for assigning a franchise or transition tag on a 2015 free-agent-to-be is less than a month away, and we’re in the process of taking a look at players who are candidates to be tagged this year. Last week, we examined all four AFC divisions, covering the East, North, South, and West. This week, we’ve shifted our focus to the NFC — we kicked things off on Tuesday with the East and tackled the North on Wednesday. Today, we’ll turn to the South. While there are fewer candidates to be tagged in this division than perhaps any other division in the league, here’s a breakdown of the possible franchise and transition tag candidates for the Falcons, Panthers, Saints, and Buccaneers:

Atlanta Falcons:

  • Candidates: Matt Bryant
  • Odds of being used: Possible
  • There are many Falcons regulars eligible for free agency, but the list isn’t particularly inspiring. Among a group that includes Dwight Lowery, Kroy Biermann, Osi Umenyiora, Corey Peters, Josh Wilson, Robert McClain, Antone Smith, and Jacquizz Rodgers, there are no real candidates for the franchise tag, but Bryant could qualify. He currently falls just outside of the league’s top 10 highest-paid kickers, but he has been a model of consistency for Atlanta in recent years. In his past two seasons with the team, he has missed six total field goals, and five of those came from 50+ yards. The Falcons will want him back, so tagging him could be an option if the two sides don’t work anything out before March 3.

Carolina Panthers:

  • Candidates: None
  • Odds of being used: Extremely unlikely
  • When examining other divisions and other teams, I’ve generally listed players as candidates to be tagged if their teams used a tag on them a year ago. But it’s hard to argue the case for Greg Hardy to get the franchise tag again. A domestic violence charge relegated Hardy to the exempt list all season, and the defensive end may be facing an additional suspension for the 2015 season. There’s no question he’s talented, and if he makes it to the open market, Hardy should draw interest from teams willing to look past his off-field troubles. But Carolina certainly shouldn’t need to commit to another eight-digit salary to bring him back. The club’s only other conceivable candidate is Byron Bell, but that’s only because he played an important position in 2014. Bell’s trial run at left tackle wasn’t a real success story — Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranked him 83rd out of 84 qualified tackles.

New Orleans Saints:

  • Candidates: Shayne Graham
  • Odds of being used: Unlikely
  • Like the Falcons, the Saints’ top candidate for a tag is their kicker. In New Orleans’ case, however, it’s more of a long shot. Graham performed passably for the team in 2014, but it certainly wasn’t the sort of season that warrants paying the 37-year-old like one of the league’s best kickers. Mark Ingram is another intriguing name among the Saints’ list of free-agents-to-be, but given the cost of the franchise tag for running backs compared to what most backs are actually being paid these days, it wouldn’t make much sense to tag him.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

  • Candidates: None
  • Odds of being used: Extremely unlikely
  • Safety Major Wright and linebacker Mason Foster are perhaps the Buccaneers’ most notable prospective free agents, and neither player was a core player — both guys only played about half the team’s defensive snaps. There’s no viable franchise tag candidate in Tampa Bay.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Bryan Bulaga

February 5th, 2015 at 9:28pm CST by Rory Parks

After missing all of 2013 due to an ACL tear, Bryan Bulaga turned in a fine performance in 2014, the final year of his rookie contract. The former first-round pick out of the University of Iowa, a veritable factory of quality offensive linemen, graded out as the 16th best tackle, and 4th best right tackle, in the league per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required). He received especially high marks for his pass blocking performance in support of league MVP Aaron Rodgers, yielding just four sacks–two of which came in one game–and two other quarterback hits over the course of the season.

Bryan Bulaga (Vertical)

In addition to his strong 2014 campaign, which culminated in a heartbreaking defeat to Seattle in the NFC Championship Game, Bulaga brings a few other noteworthy accomplishments to the table. He was named to the league’s all-rookie team in 2010, and he was the youngest player to ever start in a Super Bowl when the Packers bested the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV. PFF also ranked him as the 7th best tackle in football in 2011, just his second year in the league (subscription required).

However, he does come with an injury history. Even before the ACL tear that he suffered in August 2013, Bulaga suffered a hip injury nine games into the 2012 season that kept him sidelined for the rest of the year. As a result, he spent nearly two years on injured reserve, meaning that he needed a year like 2014 to not only prove that he was a top-flight tackle, but that he could stay healthy for a full season.

Despite missing Green Bay’s Week 2 matchup against the Jets this year, Bulaga largely managed to stay injury-free, which, combined with his strong play, puts him in excellent position for a big payday. Although there are a few other solid tackles eligible for free agency this year, most notably Doug Free, Michael Roos, and King Dunlap, Bulaga has one significant advantage over all of them: his age. At 26, Bulaga should still have a few prime years remaining, while those other free agent tackles will be at least 30 at some point in 2015.

Last year, Austin Howard scored the top deal among free agent right tackles, landing a five-year, $30MM contract with the Raiders, including $15MM in guaranteed money. Even Michael Oher, who was just released today, managed to snag a four-year, $20MM deal with Tennessee last season. Bulaga is more talented than both, and he will likely be paid accordingly. Although he has never played left tackle in his pro career–the Packers had planned to utilize him in that role before his ACL tear in 2013–he did play on the blind side while with Iowa, and he could at least represent an emergency solution at left tackle should the need arise. And, as the best overall tackle in free agency, he may end up getting paid like a second-tier left tackle, perhaps netting a deal in the five-year, $35MM range, which is what Jared Veldheer received from Arizona last year.

Green Bay would surely love to have Bulaga back. In late December, offensive line coach James Campen said of his right tackle, “He’s heavier than he’s ever been; he’s stronger…Remember, he was a young guy coming out of college, so he’s grown into his body and he has a clear understanding of the scheme, so he’s playing with total confidence. He knows exactly what’s going to happen, where it’s going to happen” (link via Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com). There is no reason to think that Bulaga himself would not like to continue his career where it began, though he was understandably in no state to discuss his future after Green Bay fell to the Seahawks several weeks ago.

But, if he does not re-sign with the Packers before free agency opens on March 10, he will likely be one of the first players to come off the board, and his presence should be a great comfort to whatever quarterback lines up behind him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason Outlook: New York Jets

February 4th, 2015 at 6:02pm CST by Zachary Links

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. D’Brickashaw Ferguson, T: $11,698,670
  2. Percy Harvin, WR: $10,500,000
  3. Nick Mangold, C: $10,407,100
  4. Muhammad Wilkerson, DL: $6,969,000
  5. Eric Decker, WR: $6,500,000
  6. Chris Johnson, RB: $5,250,000
  7. Breno Giacomini, T: $5,125,000
  8. Dee Milliner, CB: $3,453,028
  9. Quinton Coples, OLB: $2,800,890
  10. Chris Ivory, RB: $2,750,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 6 overall pick
  • Owe conditional draft pick to the Seahawks for Percy Harvin. The pick is a fourth-rounder for now, but could become a sixth-rounder if Harvin doesn’t remain on the Jets’ roster.

Other:

Overview

After a 4-12 season and their fourth straight year without a playoff appearance, the Jets decided to overhaul their coaching staff and front office. Now, they’re poised to make some significant changes to their on-field personnel.

Last offseason, cap-conscious GM John Idzik left upwards of $20MM in cap space unused as he plotted for a future that he would not be a part of. The offseason was not without its splashes, of course. The Jets added Broncos star Eric Decker on a multi-year deal, signed Michael Vick to compete with Geno Smith at quarterback, and landed running back Chris Johnson after he fell into their laps late in the offseason. The injection of star power helped them continue to dominate the back pages of New York tabloids, but it did little to help improve their on-field product.

Outside of the Jets’ defensive line, it’s hard to isolate one unit that really succeeded in 2014, but the secondary was especially brutal. Dimitri Patterson was brought aboard in the offseason to serve as one of the team’s starting cornerbacks, but he allegedly went AWOL during training camp and was ultimately released. Of course, having Patterson in the fold probably wouldn’t have moved the needle much anyway. On the other hand, someone like Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie could have been a difference maker, but he signed with the other tenants of MetLife Stadium after the Jets insulted him with a lowball offer.

On offense, Smith followed up a lukewarm rookie season with a sophomore campaign that was even worse. Smith admittedly didn’t have a great stable of wide receivers beyond Decker to start the year, but things didn’t get much better for him after Percy Harvin came to town. Moving on from Smith would be a rather easy decision if it weren’t for the absolute dearth of alternatives available this offseason.

Coaching/Front Office Changes

Rex Ryan went 26-38 over the last four seasons, yet you’d be hard-pressed to find a coach more popular with the local media. New York scribes readily came to Ryan’s defense throughout the Jets’ putrid 4-12 campaign. That could be because Ryan wasn’t given much to work with or because Ryan was a guaranteed gold mine every time he approached a hot microphone — or maybe a bit from both columns. All of the positive ink couldn’t save Ryan’s job at the end of the day, however, and the head coach was shown the door at the end of the season along with Idzik.Todd Bowles

Two years ago, Idzik convinced Jets owner Woody Johnson that he was the man for the job based on his salary cap expertise. When Idzik was ousted, the Jets replaced him with former Texans college scouting director Mike Maccagnan. Maccagnan, who was championed by team consultant Charley Casserly, isn’t much of a numbers guy but has a wealth of football knowledge and a keen eye for player evaluation.

While the Jets went in a different direction at GM, they went with another defensive-minded coach to replace Ryan when they hired former Cardinals defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. The 51-year-old is now the Jets’ sixth straight head coach with a defensive background as Ryan, Eric Mangini, Herm Edwards, Al Groh, and Bill Parcells were all defense-first coaches. That may seem like an exceptionally long time to emphasize defense, but one can hardly blame Gang Green for being wary of going back to an offensive-minded HC after two dreadful years with Rich Kotite. Bowles will be assisted by Kacy Rodgers on defense while ex-Bills coach Chan Gailey will be responsible for the offensive playcalling.

With Bowles on the sidelines, Maccagnan can expect to get a similar directive to the one that Ryan was giving Idzik: build the defense. This time, there’s a good chance the GM will actually listen.

Positions Of Need

In a perfect world, the Jets would use their considerable cap room or their No. 6 overall pick to find a new starting quarterback. In the real world, well, there’s not much out there. The Jets stank on ice in 2014, but they probably didn’t lose enough to get within range of Oregon product Marcus Mariota or FSU star Jameis Winston. There are other noteworthy names at the position, including UCLA’s Brett Hundley and Baylor’s Bryce Petty, but none would be worth taking with their first round choice. In fact, many aren’t sold on Mariota or Winston as franchise quarterbacks and the outlook is even worse for the rest of the crop. In free agency, the Jets will find a group headlined by Brian Hoyer and old friend Mark Sanchez. Sanchez looked like a top-10 QB when things were clicking in Philadelphia and looked more like his 2012 version when things hit the skids. Even if Sanchez looked like the second coming of Joe Montana for the entire season, it would be hard to see the Jets making a play for him.

The trade market, meanwhile, could hold a couple of interesting options for the Jets. John Fox sounds like he’d be on board with having Jay Cutler as his quarterback in Chicago, but that’s far from certain at that point. Last season was a disaster for the Bears on both sides of the ball, but Cutler has proven himself to be one of the better signal callers in football when he has the right pieces around him. Meanwhile, in Washington, Robert Griffin III‘s future is as uncertain as ever. It wouldn’t be hard to see RGIII in a pair of green-and-white striped socks, but he would probably have to compete for the starting job against Smith in camp.

Whether the Jets make a major addition under center remains to be seen, but it’s a mortal lock that they will add a notable cornerback this offseason. Former Jet Antonio Cromartie has a fan in Bowles and he has made no secret about his desire to return to New York. “My door is always open to returning,” Cromartie said late last month. “Everybody knows I didn’t want to leave. I’m going to keep my door open and see what happens.” Of course, the big fish this offseason will be Darrelle Revis if the Patriots decline his $20MM team option and he tests the open market. That reunion once seemed unthinkable, but the Jets (and Rex Ryan‘s Bills) reportedly have their sights set on him. Beyond those familiar faces, the Jets could look into the likes of Byron Maxwell, Brandon Flowers, Chris Culliver, and Kareem Jackson. Jackson, of course, shares a Houston connection with Maccagnan. Getting Dee Milliner back in the lineup will help things, but the Jets will have to go out-of-house to really lock down the cornerback spots.

Elsewhere in the secondary, the Jets will look to add a new free safety with impending free agent Dawan Landry likely heading elsewhere. Landry had his moments in 2014, but he was a poor complement for the hard-hitting Calvin Pryor. Pryor does his best work hanging out around the line of scrimmage and leveling the kind of hits that were more common in the NFL ten years ago. Landry, meanwhile, isn’t a top-notch coverage option and that meant that Pryor couldn’t really demonstrate his skill set. With a different free safety, the Louisville product could make a significant impact in 2015, provided that he doesn’t rack up too many penalty flags. It should be noted that while Landry might not be the best fit for the Jets, he actually graded out as the ninth-best safety in the NFL last season according to PFF.

The Jets seemingly solved their issues at wide receiver when they acquired Harvin midseason. The eminently talented athlete would be the ideal No. 2 to Decker, if not for his hefty contract. While Harvin is owed $10.5MM for 2015, his salary is non-guaranteed and he can be dropped without salary cap ramifications. Maccagnan has a different approach than Idzik, but it doesn’t take a cap guru to know that’s a massive cost for the oft-injured and mercurial Harvin. If the Jets do want to dole out a top-10 wide receiver salary, they could get bold and go for the likes of free agent Demaryius Thomas, if he hits the open market. Going a little (or a lot cheaper), Gang Green could explore someone like Michael Crabtree, though he also comes with a history of injuries and abrasive behavior. Better yet, the Jets could use the No. 6 pick on the top receiver in the draft, Alabama’s Amari Cooper.

Key Free Agents

The Jets have a great number of free agents this offseason but only a few could be viewed as pivotal. David Harris stands as one of the best inside linebackers on the open market this offseason and he could be open to taking a little bit less to play for a winner. Meanwhile, it’s not hard to see Rex Ryan luring him to Buffalo. Defensive tackle Damon Harrison‘s contract is also up, but he’s a restricted free agent. The 26-year-old, one of the Jets’ few bright spots in 2014, is likely to receive the max tender.

Running back Bilal Powell has looked good at times, but he’s not irreplaceable and there’s no guarantee that the new regime will want him back. Safety Jaiquawn Jarrett (restricted) could also be retained after a solid season, including a heroic effort in the Jets’ Week 10 win over the Steelers.

Possible Cap Casualties

As mentioned earlier, Harvin could be shown the door rather than kept f0r his $10.5MM salary. Cutting Harvin wouldn’t necessarily mean parting ways with him, of course, as the Jets could look to work out a more team-friendly deal. Never say never, but Harvin could find it difficult to land a multi-year deal at an AAV that would put him in the top 15 of wide receivers, especially when considering that the quality of the market at the position. The Jets could release him and instead look to sign him to a one-year pillow deal for less money, but then again, there will be other suitors looking to do the same. It should also be noted that keeping Harvin means that the Jets would be sending a fourth-round choice to Seattle rather than a sixth-round pick.

Many expected that the Jets would put Chris Johnson‘s soft hands to good use as a security blanket for Smith in 2014. Aside from a few games, however, we didn’t see CJ2K catch many balls out of the backfield. When you factor in Johnson’s January arrest, his declining speed, the new regime in New York, and the roughly $3.5MM they’d save by bouncing him, it’s very possible that Johnson could be let go this offseason.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

One of the few silver linings to the Jets’ 2014 season was the play of Muhammad Wilkerson. The Jets have the Temple product under contract through 2015 after exercising his fifth-year option, but they don’t want to let him reach the open market after the season. In 2012, the 25-year-old graded out as the second-best 3-4 defensive end in 2012 behind superstar J.J. Watt, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). In 2013, he recorded 64 tackles and 10.5 sacks and, per PFF, he played more defensive snaps (1,067) than any other 3-4 DE. This past year, Wilkerson recorded six sacks and five pass deflections in a 13-game season as he disrupted opposing offenses in both facets of the game. The Jets want to get to the table with Wilkerson and his agent, but they’ll have to address their main areas of need first.

Exercising Wilkerson’s fifth-year option cost the Jets ~$6.97MM and doing the same for linebacker Quinton Coples would likely cost them more. Would that be worthwhile for the Jets after watching him struggle at times with the transition from defensive end to linebacker? Coples had a career best 6.5 sacks in 2014, but they’ll probably take their chances and let him play out his final season. The Jets have until May 3rd to make the call on Coples.

Overall Outlook

The Jets cleaned house at the end of the 2014 season with a clear desire to wipe the slate clean. With a significant number of players heading towards free agency, the Jets have a chance to really shake things up. They can be expected to spend big on a cornerback, but they won’t find themselves in playoff contention without a significant upgrade at quarterback. The Jets could shoot for the moon by trading for Cutler or one of the top two quarterbacks in this year’s draft, but they could also wait until next offseason and treat 2015 as a transitional year. Jets fans are restless, but the bar has also been set low, so Maccagnan & Co. won’t have to go all out unless directed otherwise by ownership.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2015 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates: NFC North

February 4th, 2015 at 8:51am CST by Luke Adams

The deadline for assigning a franchise or transition tag on a 2015 free-agent-to-be is less than a month away, and we’re in the process of taking a look at players who are candidates to be tagged this year. Last week, we examined all four AFC divisions, covering the East, North, South, and West. This week, we’re shifting our focus to the NFC — we kicked things off on Tuesday with the East and we’ll tackle the North today. Here’s a breakdown of the franchise and transition tag candidates for the Bears, Lions, Packers, and Vikings:

Chicago Bears:

  • Candidates: Stephen Paea
  • Odds of being used: Unlikely
  • The Bears have a ton of pending free agents, but most of them are either non-core players, or longtime contributors who are no longer realistic candidates to be tagged, such as Charles Tillman and Lance Briggs. I don’t expect Chicago to use either of its tags, but if there’s one option out there, it’s probably Paea, whose impressive 2014 campaign may have been overlooked by many due to the defense’s poor overall performance. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) graded Paea as the league’s 11th-best defensive tackle, marking him down for 47 overall quarterback pressures, a lofty total for an interior lineman — among DTs, only Ndamukong Suh (57) and Kyle Williams (49) had more. It probably won’t take a franchise tag to retain Paea, but he should be a priority for the Bears if they have a spot for him in Vic Fangio‘s new defensive scheme.

Detroit Lions:

  • Candidates: Ndamukong Suh, Matt Prater
  • Odds of being used: Possible
  • You could make a case for Suh as the league’s top free-agent-to-be this offseason, which would normally mean the franchise tag makes a ton of sense. In Suh’s case though, his 2014 salary was so high that the cost of a franchise tag would be astronomical — nearly $27MM. As such, a long-term extension will be the Lions’ preference, but tagging Suh could be a last resort. If the star defender isn’t tagged, Prater may be considered, since he made 87% of his field goals for the club after a shaky debut. Still, considering they picked him up off the scrap heap just a few months ago, the Lions likely won’t have to tag the kicker to bring him back. Nick Fairley and Rashean Mathis are other regulars who may be briefly considered, but neither appears to be a viable option.

Green Bay Packers:

  • Candidates: Randall Cobb, Bryan Bulaga
  • Odds of being used: Possible
  • Cobb and Bulaga are players Green Bay would almost certainly like to have around for the 2015 season, and the wideout is the stronger candidate for a franchise tag than the offensive lineman. Although Bulaga has developed into a reliable right tackle for the Packers, the position just isn’t one that gets big money — as Over the Cap’s data shows, the highest-paid right tackle in the NFL (Gosder Cherilus) averages just $7MM per year, and a franchise salary would be significantly higher than that. Cobb, on the other hand, is coming off a season in which he recorded 91 receptions, 1,287 receiving yards, and 12 TDs. Those are No. 1 WR numbers, and Cobb is just 24 years old, so the Packers may be willing to pay him like one of the league’s best wideouts for a year while they try to work out a longer-term deal that’s worth a little less annually. Cornerback Tramon Williams is another solid contributor who might warrant fleeting consideration for a tag.

Minnesota Vikings:

  • Candidates: None
  • Odds of being used: Very unlikely
  • Defensive regulars Jasper Brinkley and Tom Johnson are among the club’s contributors eligible for free agency this offseason, but Minnesota doesn’t have a key free agent worth an eight-digit salary for 2015.

2015 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates: NFC East

February 3rd, 2015 at 8:55am CST by Luke Adams

The deadline for assigning a franchise or transition tag on a 2015 free-agent-to-be is less than a month away, and we’re in the process of taking a look at players who are candidates to be tagged this year. Last week, we examined all four AFC divisions, covering the East, North, South, and West. This week, we’re shifting our focus to the NFC, starting with the East. Here’s a breakdown of the franchise and transition tag candidates for Dallas, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington:

Dallas Cowboys:

  • Candidates: Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray
  • Odds of being used: Likely
  • Rolando McClain, another Cowboys free-agent-to-be, might be a viable candidate for a tag at another position, but as an inside linebacker, he’d be subject to the pricier franchise salary assigned to an outside linebacker, making it too expensive to really consider. That leaves Bryant and Murray as possible candidates, and it seems probable that one of the two will receive a tag. Bryant, who will be Dallas’ No. 1 priority in free agency, is the likelier option, but if he and the Cowboys work out a long-term extension within the next few weeks, it would make sense to consider franchising Murray.

New York Giants:

  • Candidates: Jason Pierre-Paul
  • Odds of being used: Possible
  • Pierre-Paul came on strong in the season’s second half, increasing his overall sack total to 12.5. JPP was having a good year even without the sacks, playing particularly well against the run, but that sack figure is what improved his earning potential as he neared free agency. A former first-round pick, Pierre-Paul only turns 26 this month, and has a chance to be the best pass rusher to reach the open market, depending on what happens with Ndamukong Suh and Justin Houston. That’s a valuable asset to keep around, so if the Giants can’t work out a long-term deal with him, franchising him could be the team’s best course of action.

Philadelphia Eagles:

  • Candidates: Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Graham
  • Odds of being used: Possible
  • Maclin perhaps isn’t in the same tier as top free-agent-to-be wideouts Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas, but he certainly should head up the second tier, along with Randall Cobb. A year ago, Maclin turned down a five-year offer from the Eagles, choosing to bet on himself with a one-year contract that could significantly increase the value of a multiyear deal this offseason. That decision paid off, as the 26-year-old posted career highs in receptions (85), receiving yards (1,318), and touchdowns (10), and now it might be the Eagles that prefer to just stick to one year. If it comes down to having to offer Maclin a five-year, $50MM+ deal or locking him up at the franchise salary for one year, the club may favor the latter. As for Graham, he’s probably not a truly realistic candidate for a tag, since he still hasn’t become more than a part-time player in Philadelphia, but when he sees the field, he has played very well — Pro Football Focus (subscription required) had Graham down for 53 total quarterback pressures this year in just 524 defensive snaps, ranking him as the league’s third-best 3-4 outside linebacker.

Washington:

  • Candidates: Brian Orakpo
  • Odds of being used: Very unlikely
  • As I observed when I discussed the Steelers and Jason Worilds, if a team is willing to tag a player once, and he plays well in the following season, it makes sense to at least consider it again. In Orakpo’s case though, the edge defender was struggling even before a torn pectoral wiped out the second half of his season, recording just 0.5 sacks in his first seven games. 2014 second-round pick Trent Murphy is a younger, cheaper alternative to Orakpo, so more likely than not, Washington will simply let Orakpo walk if he wants a lucrative deal.

Revisiting PFR’s 2014/15 NFL Predictions

February 2nd, 2015 at 2:45pm CST by Luke Adams

Back in early September, eight members of the Pro Football Rumors writing team submitted predictions for the 2014/15 NFL season, forecasting the league’s playoff teams, award winners, and Super Bowl champion. Five months later, some of those picks look prescient, while others should probably just be forgotten entirely.

Still, in the interest of accountability, we’ll take a look back today at a few of those predictions to see which ones hit or missed the mark. Let’s dive in….

The good:

  • While no one correctly predicted all six, we did fairly well as a group identifying the AFC playoff teams, with Rob DiRe, Matt Feminis, Ben Levine, and Rory Parks nailing five of the six.
  • Zach Links’ postseason predictions looked off-the-wall back in September, but he forecasted the NFC better than anyone, correctly picking five of six postseason participants, including the surprising Cowboys. Speaking of those Cowboys, Zach was also the only one of us to see DeMarco Murray‘s Offensive Player of the Year award coming.
  • Rob and Zach correctly picked multiple award winners, with Zach also predicting J.J. Watt would win Defensive Player of the Year, while Rob had Watt as DPOY and Aaron Rodgers as MVP.
  • One of the only silver linings in a series of bad predictions from me? I projected Aaron Donald as the Defensive Rookie of the Year.
  • Six of us had the Patriots playing in the Super Bowl, while Matt and Ben Levine each called New England as this year’s champion. Rory and David Kipke had the Seahawks as the NFC’s representative in the Super Bowl.

The bad:

  • As a group, we picked four different Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates and six Coach of the Year options, but none of them were eventual winners Odell Beckham Jr. or Bruce Arians.
  • Besides Zach, none of us correctly predicted more than half of the NFC’s playoff teams, with most of us just getting two of six. Disappointing seasons – or finishes – from the Saints, Eagles, 49ers, and Bears contributed to our struggles in the NFC.
  • Of those NFC underachievers, New Orleans burned us the most — seven of us thought the Saints would play in the NFC title game, four of us thought they’d make the Super Bowl, and Rob and I both had them as our champions. Whoops.
  • Among our predicted award winners who didn’t have the seasons we anticipated: Drew Brees, Tyrann Mathieu, Brandin Cooks, and Jadeveon Clowney.

The ugly:

  • I was high enough on the Buccaneers in the preseason that I gave them the nod for the second Wild Card spot in the NFC. Instead, Tampa Bay will pick first overall in this spring’s draft after a 2-14 campaign.
  • While Zach’s outside-the-box choices paid off in the NFC, his pick of the Jets to win the AFC East – led by Coach of the Year Rex Ryan – didn’t exactly pan out.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Nick Fairley

February 1st, 2015 at 3:54pm CST by Dallas Robinson

With the offseason around the corner, the Lions’ most pressing concern from a roster standpoint is undeniably the impending free agency of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who topped the most recent edition of our 2015 Free Agent Power Rankings. Reports had indicated the Detroit would consider all the options at its disposal to retain Suh, and today Chris Mortensen of ESPN reported that the Lions are in a good position to re-sign the All-Pro. But because Suh is expected to receive a contract that rivals the $100MM pact between J.J. Watt and the Texans, the Lions probably won’t be able to keep its other talented defensive tackle, fourth-year player Nick Fairley.Nick Fairley

Assuming a $140MM cap, the Lions will have approximately $15.4MM of 2015 cap space with which to work. Depending on how Suh’s potential extension is structured, much of that space could be already be spoken for. Mortensen’s report indicated that receiver Calvin Johnson could restructure his contract to create more financial flexibility for the club, allowing the Lions to re-sign Suh and add even more talent. Regardless, cap space in Detroit figures to be tight, leading Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press to tweet today that Fairley returning to the Motor City is a “long shot.”

Of course, the Lions could have had Fairley under team control for the 2015 season had they opted to exercise his fifth-year option last May. Because it selected Fairley in the first round of the 2011 draft, Detroit could have retained Fairley next season for a base salary in the neighborhood of $5.5MM. General manager Martin Mayhew & Co. opted to decline the option, and explained the decision as a motivational tactic, hoping to push Fairley into performing at high level in 2014. The maneuver created something of a Catch-22 — though Fairley did perform well last season, the Lions have now allowed him to hit free agency a year earlier than was needed.

Utilizing the fifth-year option decision as a strategy to motivate Fairley was an understandable move at the time, as the former 11th overall draft pick had failed to live up to expectations. The Auburn product started just 22 games during his first three seasons in the NFL, posting 12.5 sacks over that span. He had a nice season in 2012, grading as the fifth-best defensive tackle among 85 qualifiers per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). In ’13, however, Fairley slipped to to No. 31 per PFF, as his run defense grade slipped significantly.

In 2014, Fairley was playing at perhaps his highest level yet before suffering a sprained MCL and PCL in Week 8 — he didn’t play again the rest of the season. Despite his limited amounted of snaps (297), he still placed as the league’s 18th-best DT per PFF; his grade would have been better save for is -4.0 penalty mark. Fairley’s absence on the Detroit defense was tangible — though the unit ranked third in DVOA, it placed seventh in weighted DVOA, which more heavily factors more recent performance.

Fairley will be a part of a relatively strong free agent defensive tackle class, but assuming Suh remains in Detroit, Fairley would have a claim to the No. 1 spot at the position. He’s undoubtedly a top-five choice among DTs, with Terrance Knighton, Jared Odrick, and Dan Williams also intriguing FAs for clubs looking for interior defensive line help. Williams is a 3-4 nose tackle, so he probably won’t interest the same teams that look into Fairley; Knighton, as well, is more of a space-eater. Odrick is probably the most similar competitor among free agent tackles, and it’s notable that Fairley and Odrick produced the top two pass-rushing grades among FA defensive tackles, per PFF.

Given his uneven career performance and his recent injury history, Fairley certainly isn’t in line for a Watt/Suh/Gerald McCoy-type contract that averages more than $12MM per year. The Geno Atkins deal, with an AAV of roughly $10.7MM, is probably out of reach as well. Linval Joseph‘s five-year, $31.25MM pact with the Vikings, signed last offseason, is pretty clearly the floor for Fairley. Joseph was a bit younger than Fairley at the time he inked his contract, but Joseph had never played to the level that Fairely has demonstrated he’s capable of. As such, Fairley will probably be looking for a five-year deal with an AAV that pushes $7MM, with guarantees in the neighborhood of $13-14MM.

Fairley shouldn’t suffer from a lack of suitors, as clubs that perhaps had their eye on Suh can turn their attention to Fairley, provided Suh stays with the Lions. Teams such as the Raiders, Jaguars, Bengals, Broncos (should they lose Knighton), and Falcons (depending on scheme) all make sense for Fairley, who just turned 27 years old. He’s spent his career in a 4-3 defensive front, and given his pass-rushing acumen, it would likely serve him to stay in that scheme. But at 6’4″ and more than 300 pounds, he could conceivably play end in a 3-4 look, and interest clubs like the Chargers, Colts, and Titans, but again, his talents play up in a 4-3. Additionally, if former Lions head coach Jim Schwartz lands a role with a team, it will be interesting to see if he lobbies to bring in Fairley, his ex-pupil.

Fairley said back in August that he’d like to stay with the Lions, but given the massive contract that Suh will garner, it seems wholly unlikely Detroit can keep both its defensive tackles. The club was already spending the second-most on its defensive line in 2014, and that figure would surely rise with new contracts for both Suh and Fairley. Free agency now presents that most likely (and tantalizing) route for Fairely, who should do well on the open market.

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