PFR Polls News & Rumors

Poll: Who Will Win The AFC South?

July 5th, 2014 at 8:24pm CST by Luke Adams

No NFL team in 2013 won its division by a more significant margin than the Colts, whose 11 regular-season victories were nearly as many as the combined total of 13 compiled by the other three teams in their division. On the surface, a seven-win Titans squad that didn’t noticeably improve this offseason shouldn’t pose a real threat to Indianapolis in 2014, and the 4-12 Jaguars and 2-14 Texans would both have to pull off massive turnarounds to challenge for the division crown.

Still, as betting site Bovada.lv shows, although the Colts head into 2014 as the frontrunners to win the AFC South again, they’re not massive favorites. Vegas’ oddsmakers appreciated the work done by the Texans this winter and spring — while the team didn’t make many substantial free agent additions, it added No. 1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney to a defensive line that already featured J.J. Watt. It’s safe to say Andrew Luck and other quarterbacks around the division aren’t looking forward to seeing those two fearsome pass rushers on the other side of the ball twice a season. This is also a Houston club that’s only a year removed from an 11-win season and seems poised for at least a moderate bounce back — the performance of new signal-caller Ryan Fitzpatrick may determine exactly how far the Texans can go.

The Titans, meanwhile, shouldn’t be overlooked, even though I think they’ll be hard-pressed to match even last year’s win total. A younger, more diverse backfield could easily be more productive than Chris Johnson was in his last season in Tennessee, and new coach Ken Whisenhunt has done good work with quarterbacks in the past — perhaps his influence will help Jake Locker exceed expectations in a contract year.

As for the Jags, they’re probably at least a year or two from making any real noise in the South, but the team made some nice, under-the-radar veteran additions in the offseason, including defensive ends Red Bryant and Chris Clemons, guard Zane Beadles, linebacker Dekoda Watson, defensive lineman Ziggy Hood, and running back Toby Gerhart. Like so many other teams, their fortunes will likely come down to quarterback play. While Chad Henne‘s upside is limited, No. 3 pick Blake Bortles could put more pressure on defenses if he gets a chance to play in his rookie year.

What do you think? Do any of the division’s other squads have a chance to unseat Indianapolis at the top of the AFC South this year, or will Luck and the Colts repeat?

Previously:
Who will win the AFC North?
Who will win the AFC West?

Poll: Will Eagles Regret Releasing DeSean Jackson?

July 2nd, 2014 at 9:00am CST by Zachary Links

Yesterday, Redskins wideout Andre Roberts told SiriusXM NFL Radio that his decision to sign with Washington may have been different had he known DeSean Jackson was going to be on the team. Roberts, who has been eclipsed by Larry Fitzgerald and, at times, Michael Floyd, in Arizona, signed on with the Redskins in free agency in hopes that he could show his stuff as a more primary receiver. When Jackson came aboard to join forces with Pierre Garcon and Santana Moss, it bumped Roberts down a peg on the depth chart.

Obviously, the Redskins are happy that Jackson fell to them, even if it left Roberts a little bit perturbed. As the season approaches, however, one can’t help but wonder if the Eagles will regret having let their stud wide receiver go. Philly released Jackson over the offseason and also watched Jason Avant hook on with the Panthers. What’s left for Chip Kelly & Co. is Jeremy Maclin, who is back from a torn ACL, last year’s breakout star Riley Cooper. and a supporting cast of Arrelious Benn, second-round pick Jordan Matthews, and third-round pick Josh Huff. Cooper’s play in 2013 provided an unexpected boost for the club and Huff is a former Kelly pupil from Oregon, but the receiver corps as a whole is undeniably not as strong without Jackson in the mix.

Will Philly come to regret releasing Jackson?

Poll: Who Will Win The AFC West?

June 30th, 2014 at 11:25am CST by Luke Adams

Despite the fact that the Broncos were the AFC’s top seed in 2013, finishing with a 13-3 record, the AFC West race was actually the tightest of the four in the conference. The Chiefs and Chargers both joined Denver as playoff teams out of the West, in what was arguably the NFL’s second-best division behind the NFC West.

The Broncos head into the 2014 season as the favorites to repeat as division champs, and could be even stronger on the defensive side of the ball than they were a year ago. Aqib Talib replaces departed cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in a secondary that also added playmaking safety T.J. Ward. Meanwhile, DeMarcus Ware will join Von Miller to lead one of the league’s more dangerous pass rushes. Denver lost some key contributors, including wideout Eric Decker and guard Zane Beadles, but the Broncos are still deep and talented enough to go as far as Peyton Manning can lead them. Coming off a record-setting MVP season, Manning should be in line for another big year assuming he stays healthy, which is no given at age 38.

While Denver may be the frontrunner in the AFC West, the Chiefs and Chargers shouldn’t be overlooked. Neither club made the sort of big splashes that the Broncos did in the offseason, and Kansas City’s offensive line exodus is a cause for concern, with Branden Albert, Geoff Schwartz, and Jon Asamoah all moving on in free agency. However, these are still talented clubs that will be looking to return to the postseason in 2014. San Diego, in particular, could be a dark horse to make some noise in the regular season and the playoffs, having added cornerbacks Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett to a secondary that struggled a year ago.

As for the Raiders, they were an afterthought at 4-12 in 2013, and will be a long shot in the West again in 2014 — betting site Bovada.lv gives Oakland 18:1 odds at winning the division. But Matt Schaub could provide some stability at the quarterback position if he benefits from a change of scenery in Oakland. First-round linebacker Khalil Mack should have an immediate impact. And the Raiders brought in a number of interesting veterans in free agency, including Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley, James Jones, Austin Howard, and Maurice Jones-Drew. A lot would have to break right for the Raiders to have a chance at the division title, but it’s not a totally inconceivable scenario.

What do you think? Which team will win the AFC West in 2014?

Previously:
Who will win the AFC North?

Poll: What Will Happen To Demaryius Thomas?

June 29th, 2014 at 7:28pm CST by David Kipke

Broncos’ wide receiver Demaryius Thomas‘ contract is set to expire after the 2014-2015 season. The reigning All-Pro wideout and former first round pick is considered to be among the league’s elite receiving talents. As our own Luke Adams described in this very thorough post, recent star wide receiver contracts would point to a potential five-year deal for Thomas, with Greg Jennings ($45MM), Vincent Jackson, ($55MM), Dwayne Bowe, ($56MM), Mike Wallace ($60MM), and Percy Harvin ($64.25MM) all signing recent contracts for five years.

Thomas’ contract situation received considerable press a few weeks ago when a story broke that the Broncos had offered the former Georgia Tech standout a five-year deal. Although those alleged contract talks quickly cooled off, there is still substantial speculation regarding how the Broncos will handle the two-time Pro Bowler. It seems that Thomas’ contract situation can go one of several ways: he can re-sign with the Broncos at some point before, during, or after the 2014-2015 Season, or, should the Broncos’ salary cap become too congested, he could test the free agent market after next season. With Wes Welker, Julius Thomas, and Von Miller‘s contracts all set to expire sometime before the 2016-2017 Season, it appears that the Broncos will have some difficult personnel decisions to make in the coming two years.

What do you think will happen to Demaryius Thomas? Will he remain a Bronco? If so, when will he re-sign? If you think he will sign elsewhere, please feel free to elaborate your thought process in the comment section.

Poll: Most Intriguing NFL Storyline?

June 27th, 2014 at 6:57pm CST by Ben Levine

Minicamps have wrapped up around the NFL and there’s a bit of a lull prior to training camp. Nevertheless, there are still a number of intriguing stories to focus on.

There’s the Jimmy Graham–Saints standoff, where the two sides are haggling over the player’s position. The Saints slapped the franchise tag on Graham as a tight end, thus assuring him a $7.035MM contract. Considering Graham’s production at the position, the player’s side wanted him designated as a wideout. The difference in salary is significant – Graham would receive $12.312MM as a receiver. A resolution is expected sometime next week.

On the morning after the NBA Draft, Cleveland’s focus isn’t as much on number-one pick Andrew Wiggins. Instead, all eyes are on Browns rookie quarterback Johnny Manziel. The former Heisman winner has been stealing headlines for his off-the-field antics, leading some to question whether he can lead the team to their first playoff appearance since 2002. Manziel addressed his critics earlier today, claiming he wasn’t going to change for anybody.

Wide receiver Andre Johnson remains on the Texans roster, even after he expressed his frustration with the team and skipped the mandatory minicamp. It appears that Johnson wants out of Houston, but plenty of obstacles stand in his way. The wideout has three years remaining on his contract and the team doesn’t seem in any rush to trade their disgruntled star.

Or maybe you’re most interested in the saga surrounding the Redskins. The organization recently lost the trademark on the team’s name, with the U.S. Patent Office declaring that the word is “disparaging to Native Americans” and can’t be trademarked under federal law. However, owner Dan Snyder has not relented on his support for the name.

What do you think is the most intriguing NFL storyline at the end of minicamp? Is there something we forgot? Let us know in the comments.

Poll: How Will Flowers Fare In San Diego?

June 25th, 2014 at 9:08pm CST by Zachary Links

Earlier this month, the Chiefs cut ties with defensive mainstay Brandon Flowers. Even though Flowers was seen as a trade candidate, it was still a surprise to see him outright released. Plenty of teams showed interest in adding the former second-round pick, but he decided that San Diego was the place for him after a multi-day visit with the club. In fact, Flowers never made it out to check in with the other clubs that were showing serious interest.

Flowers is a big name, especially for someone who became available in late June, but it’s hard to say exactly what the Chargers are getting here. Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required) show that 2013 was a down year for Flowers. Much of that can probably be attributed to a poor fit with new Chiefs defensive coordinator Bob Sutton’s scheme, but he still ranked as just the 87th-best CB in the league among 110 qualified players. On the other hand, PFF rated Flowers as a top-seven corner in both 2011 and 2012, and Flowers is still just 28.

If you want to know what Flowers’ motives are with this deal, look no further than the terms of the contract. It’s a one-year deal that comes with a $1.5MM signing bonus, $1.5MM in base pay, and up to $2MM in incentives. It’s not a major payday, but if Flowers can get back to his old self in SD, he can cash in next offseason. After all, Flowers will be just 29 years old and could be in line for a hefty multi-year pact. Flowers surely wants to win in 2014, but he’ll have a little extra motivation with so much money on the line. Ultimately, do you think the signing will work out for the Chargers? Let us know in the poll and in the comments section.

Poll: Who Will Win The AFC North?

June 24th, 2014 at 8:55am CST by Luke Adams

With spring workouts behind us, we’ve still got a little ways to go until NFL training camps get underway. But the roster building and shuffling of the offseason is mostly out of the way now, meaning we can look ahead to the fall and predict with relative confidence what rosters around the league will look like once the season begins. So we’ll take the opportunity over the next few weeks to look back on the offseason moves and ahead to how those moves will affect teams for the 2014 season.

We’ll start today in the AFC North, where the Bengals finished comfortably ahead of the veteran Steelers and Ravens a year ago, compiling an 11-5 record, three games ahead of the 8-8 marks by Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Cincinnati may head into the 2014 season as the slight favorite to win the division again, but the squad took a couple notable hits this spring. Defensive end Michael Johnson and offensive lineman Anthony Collins both packed up and headed south, signing long-term deals with the Buccaneers in free agency. And while the addition of rookie cornerback Darqueze Dennard should help shore up the secondary, Cincinnati didn’t commit more than $1MM in guaranteed money to a single free agent this offseason, so there are no obvious impact players among the new additions.

The Steelers and Ravens parted with longtime mainstays of their own — LaMarr Woodley, Ziggy Hood, and Larry Foote for Pittsburgh and Arthur Jones, Corey Graham, and Michael Oher for Baltimore. But both teams did well to retain key contributors, such as Jason Worilds for the Steelers and Eugene Monroe and Daryl Smith for the Ravens. Throw in a couple intriguing new pieces (Ryan Shazier, Mike Mitchell for Pittsburgh; Steve Smith, C.J. Mosley for Baltimore) and there’s reason to believe both clubs could improve upon last year’s .500 records.

Meanwhile, the Browns are typically an afterthought in the AFC North, having yet to finish first in the division since its inception in 2002. Johnny Manziel‘s arrival will ensure that the team at least remains on the national radar all year, and whether it’s Manziel or Brian Hoyer under center, the Browns have some talent here, having re-signed Alex Mack and added Karlos Dansby, Donte Whitner, Justin Gilbert, and Ben Tate to their core. Still, with Josh Gordon potentially facing a lengthy suspension, it remains to be seen whether the Browns will put enough points on the board to be a real contender in the division this year.

What do you think? Which of the four AFC North teams will capture the division crown in 2014?

Poll: Where Will Brandon Flowers Sign?

June 20th, 2014 at 10:08am CST by Luke Adams

With most free agents snapped up quickly in March, it’s rare to see a Pro Bowler available in June. Players like DeSean Jackson and Chris Johnson were cut later in the offseason, making the free agent market a little more interesting in the spring, but it has been a while since a player of Brandon Flowers‘ caliber became available.

Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required) suggest 2013 was a down year for Flowers as he struggled to fit in new Chiefs defensive coordinator Bob Sutton’s scheme, ranking as just the 87th-best CB in the league among 110 qualified players. However, PFF rated Flowers as a top-seven corner in both 2011 and 2012, and the ex-Chief is still only 28 years old, making him an intriguing option for teams in need of help in the secondary.

So far, the market for Flowers has been hard to nail down. The former second-round pick paid a visit to San Diego this week, so we count the Chargers among his potential suitors. Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Flowers has at least one more visit on his schedule, though it’s unclear which club he’s meeting with next.

While the Falcons and Redskins were initially identified as possible favorites to land Flowers, their interest has been downplayed over the last week. The Jets could use cornerback help after losing Antonio Cromartie and missing out on a few free agents, but the club reportedly hasn’t reached out to Flowers. The Vikings inquired, but are believed to be a long shot, with the cornerback not currently planning a visit to Minnesota. The Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, and Lions are among the other teams that have some level of interest in Flowers and may still be in the mix.

With a decision expected soon, we may see a frontrunner emerge for Flowers this weekend, if not today. For now though, it appears to be a wide open field. What do you think? Where will the Pro Bowl cornerback eventually sign?

Poll: Should Chiefs, Bengals Extend Their QBs?

June 10th, 2014 at 12:11pm CST by Luke Adams

With Colin Kaepernick now under 49ers control through 2020, only two notable starting quarterbacks on 2013 playoff teams lack long-term security — the contracts for Alex Smith of the Chiefs and Andy Dalton of the Bengals are set to expire after the 2014 season, if they don’t receive extensions before that point.

As Albert Breer of the NFL Network wrote yesterday, the Chiefs and Bengals are in tough spots, since neither Smith nor Dalton has had the regular season or postseason success to consider them among the league’s elite quarterbacks. However, with no real second-tier market for starting quarterbacks, Smith and Dalton figure to pursue contracts in the same range as those signed by Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, and other signal-callers whose resumés don’t include a Super Bowl win. That means something in the neighborhood of $17-18MM per year.

On the surface, committing anything close to $18MM annually to Smith or Dalton seems like it’d be a mistake for their respective teams. Avoiding having to pay that sort of money to their quarterbacks is one reason the Chiefs and Bengals have been able to put together such talented rosters. Signing those QBs to lucrative extensions now would compromise the clubs’ ability to continue adding talent at other positions.

On the other hand, productive starting quarterbacks aren’t easy to find. There are fewer reliable options around the league than there are teams, and deciding to move on from Smith or Dalton could leave the Chiefs or Bengals with a glaring hole at the most important position on the field. Perhaps Chase Daniel or Aaron Murray could provide a close approximation to what Smith contributes to the Chiefs, and maybe A.J. McCarron could develop into a solid starting option in Cincinnati. However, there are certainly no guarantees in either case.

I expect we’ll see Smith and Dalton sign extensions at some point before the season gets underway, but there are a number of directions in which their team could go. Playing out the season and then perhaps using the franchise tag for 2015 – which figures to be around $17MM – is another option if the Chiefs or Bengals aren’t prepared to make a long-term commitment to their respective quarterbacks quite yet.

What do you think? What should Kansas City and Cincinnati do?

Poll: Should The Cowboys Bring Back Josh Brent?

June 8th, 2014 at 10:22am CST by Rory Parks

We learned several days ago that the Cowboys would not rule out the possibility of defensive tackle Josh Brent‘s returning to the team upon his release from jail. Brent, of course, is currently serving a six-month sentence for intoxication manslaughter for his role in a drunken car crash that killed teammate and best friend, Jerry Brown. Brent is set to be released on July 23, and the Cowboys open training camp the next day.

David Moore of the Dallas Morning News lists the pros and cons of Brent’s would-be return. Moore notes that one common refrain among Cowboys fans is that Brent is simply not a good enough player to warrant the public relations nightmare and similar off-field concerns that his comeback would entail. Although Brent started just five games for the team in his three-year career, compiling just 1.5 sacks over that time and no more than 22 tackles in any one season, the fact remains that Dallas’ defense is in dire need of any kind of help.

The Cowboys ran a 3-4 defense when Brent last played for the club, but they now operate out of a 4-3 formation. As a 1-technique lineman in a 4-3 scheme, Brent would not be expected to generate a great deal of pressure on the quarterback, and it is difficult to say if he would provide any sort of upgrade over veterans Nick Hayden and Terrell McClain or rookies Ken Bishop and Davon Coleman.

Of course, Moore writes that neither desperation nor Brent’s talent level–such as it is–should factor into the Cowboys’ decision regarding Brent. He does add, however, that Brown’s mother, Stacey Jackson, has continued to publicly support Brent and has expressed her hope that that team will do the same. Jackson’s support would be something of a crutch for the Cowboys in the court of public opinion if they wanted to bring Brent back into the fold.

In order to do that, there are a number of hurdles to clear. Before training camp began last summer, Brent sent a retirement letter to the league, so he would have to apply for reinstatement. Then there is the question of what punishment commissioner Roger Goodell would levy upon reinstatement. Putting those substantial issues aside for the time being, Moore writes, “The Cowboys appear willing to give Brent a chance to resume his career if that’s what he wants,” but nothing more than that.

So what say you, hivemind? Should the Cowboys bring back Josh Brent?

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