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Author: Dallas Robinson

Reaction To Gosder Cherilus’ Release

By | at July 26, 2015 3:34 pm

The Colts released veteran offensive tackle Gosder Cherilus this morning — the club will save $4MM in cap space this season, but they’ll incur $5.8MM in dead money in 2016. Let’s look at some of the reaction to the move, as well as what it means for both the Colts and Cherilus himself:

  • The Colts tried to work out a contract restructure before releasing Cherilus, but negotiations were not fruitful, according to Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star. Cherlius’ agent, Greg Diulus, tells Holder that Indy’s offer was “not a reasonable proposal.”
  • Cherilus is “healthy and in great shape,” Diulus tells Holder, a sentiment that Holder corroborates with a second source. But even though the veteran right tackle is injury-free at the moment, the Colts still view him as an injury risk. Were to he suffer another serious injury during training camp or the preseason, the club would’ve been on the hook for his entire 2015 cap charge, so parting ways now makes sense, writes Holder.
  • More from Holder, who says that while a reunion between Cherilus and Indianapolis isn’t out of the question, the 31-year-old expects to sign elsewhere.
  • Given Cherilus’ 2016 cap charge of $9.9MM, he was probably going to be released after the upcoming season regardless, tweets Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap. By releasing him now, the Colts are able to save $4MM, which might not seem like a significant figure, but given that the club is going to offer a large extension to quarterback Andrew Luck, every penny that can be saved — both in cash and on the salary cap — is beneficial, says Fitzgerald (Twitter link).
  • Now that Jack Mewhort is slated to take over at right tackle, Mike Wells of ESPN.com rounds up some quotes from general manager Ryan Grigson and Mewhort himself on the second-year pro’s versatility and the differences between playing tackle and guard.
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Latest On Russell Wilson Extension Talks

By | at July 26, 2015 2:47 pm

The Seahawks have offered quarterback Russell Wilson a extension that would guarantee him less than $20MM up front, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com. Calling a Saturday report that pegs the annual value of Seattle’s offer at $21MM “essentially accurate,” Rapoport says that Wilson hasn’t actually turned the deal down — rather, he just hasn’t accepted it.

Sources with the Seahawks tell Rapoport that the contract offer does contain significant guaranteed money, but the NFL.com scribe hears that most of those guarantees are for injury only. Wilson is likely looking for a large total in terms of fully guaranteed money, and the benchmark he might be shooting for that is $30MM, the figure the Cam Newton secured through his extension with the Panthers.

Newton will earn more than $50MM during the first 12 months of his deal, and according to Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times, Wilson doesn’t plan on agreeing to any extension that guarantees him less than Newton. Whether that means Wilson is seeking more in terms of guarantees, total value, or simply wants a similar cash flow structure is unclear, but Newton’s pact definitely looks like the floor for a Wilson deal.

Wilson and his camp are expected to meet with Seahawks brass this week and attempt to work out a deal before the beginning of training camp, writes Condotta. Previous reports have indicated that negotiations will be shut down once camp gets underway.

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Week In Review: 7/19/15 – 7/26/15

By | at July 26, 2015 2:04 pm

The headlines from the past week at PFR:

Key News:

Contracts:

Extended:

Signed:

Released:

Suspended:

Retired:

Other:

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Vikings Place Casey Matthews On IR

By | at July 26, 2015 1:19 pm

The Vikings have placed linebacker Casey Matthews on injured reserve, the club announced. Matthews is dealing with a hip injury, one that head coach Mike Zimmer said occurred during the team’s offseason program, according to Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

Matthews, 26, agreed to a one-year, minimum salary benefit deal with the Vikings earlier this offseason. After starting 11 games for the Eagles in 2014, Matthews looked like a legitimate option to compete with Audie Cole for Minnesota’s starting middle linebacker position. Once the Vikings selected UCLA’s Eric Kendricks in the second round of this year’s draft, however, Matthews’ route to playing time dissipated, and I listed him among the NFC North release candidates.

Depending on the nature of Matthews’ injury, it’s conceivable that he could still see the field this season. As Luke Adams explained in a PFR Glossary entry last year, players who are put on IR in the preseason — but who haven’t suffered season-ending injuries — are often released with a settlement. The club and the player come to an agreement on how long the injury will put the player out of commission, and the player is compensated for that length of time. It’s unlikely that Matthews will return to Minnesota however, as any club that releases a player off IR must wait six weeks on top of the initial diagnosis to re-sign him.

This the second Vikings headline of the day, as the club announced earlier this afternoon that it had agreed to a four-year extension with kicker Blair Walsh.

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AFC Notes: Revis, Steelers, Bell, Easley

By | at July 25, 2015 8:41 pm

Darrelle Revis is back with the Jets after a two-year hiatus, and as he tells it, he never wanted to leave — it was club management, the veteran corner tells Brian Costello of the New York Post, who saw to his departure.

“It wasn’t [owner Woody Johnson],” Revis said . “He’s a businessman and he’s going to make the best decisions he can and bring the best players in here or bring the right players in here to contend. It wasn’t him. It was the general manager. What I was told by [John] Idzik wasn’t accurate. But that’s a whole other story.”

Let’s look at more from the AFC:

  • Steelers swing tackle Mike Adams is likely to miss all of training camp while dealing with a back injury, and as Mark Kaboly of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review tweets, Adams’ absence eliminates any leverage the Steelers may have had as they try to negotiate an extension with starting left tackle Kelvin Beachum. Pittsburgh, who has recently agreed to multi-year deals with general manager Kevin Colbert, head coach Mike Tomlin, and defensive end Cameron Heyward, have reportedly opened talks with Beachum, but not much progress has been made.
  • More on the Steelers, as running back Le’Veon Bell tells Kaboly (via Twitter) that his hyperextended right knee is still bothering him, but he’s getting close to 100 percent. Bell is currently suspended for the first three games of the 2015 season due to his 2014 arrest, and although he has appealed, we heard earlier today that no date for the hearing is set.
  • Defensive tackle Dominique Easley, the Patriots‘ first-round pick in 2014, has switched agents, signing with Sean Stellato of SES Sports, according to Ben Volin of the Boston Globe. As Volin correctly notes, it’s a little odd for Easley to change agencies at this point in his career, as he isn’t eligible to renegotiate his contract for two more years. Easley played just 270 snaps during his rookie season while still recovering from a torn ACL suffered in college, but he should see a larger role in 2015.
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2015 Release Candidates: AFC West

By | at July 25, 2015 7:34 pm

Most clubs have fairly set rosters at this point, as OTA, minicamp, and preseason performances won’t do much to alter roster composition. The majority of key releases came in March, but there are still several scenarios where certain contributors could lose their roster spot in the coming months. For the most part, we’ll focus on situations where the cap savings would be in excess of $1MM.

Because free agency has already passed, financial ramifications won’t play a huge role in these decisions; there aren’t a ton of high-profile free agents on which to spend that saved money, so these calls will mostly be made based on performance. However, any cap space saved through these potential releases could be rolled over into 2016, so that’s something clubs have to consider.

We’ve already looked at the AFC East, NFC East, AFC North, NFC North, AFC South, and NFC South, so let’s dive into the AFC West…

Denver Broncos:

  • Andre Caldwell, WR: The Broncos have lost Eric Decker and Wes Welker in consecutive seasons, but that hasn’t led to an uptick in production for Caldwell, who has caught just 21 balls for less than 300 yards over the past two years. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders will reprise their roles as Denver’s top two receivers in 2015, but Sanders will move to the slot in three-receiver sets, leaving unanswered the question of who will play the outside in such formations. The odds-on favorite is 2014 second-round pick Cody Latimer, who not only saw first-time reps while Thomas was away from camp as a frachise-tagged player, but received praise from head coach Gary Kubiak. So where does that leave Caldwell? Mostly as a viable fourth receiver and special teamer — he played on more than 40% of Denver’s ST snaps last year — who might not be worth his $1.55MM cap charge. But the Broncos have little to no depth behind him at receiver, so he probably sticks. Prediction: not released.

Kansas City Chiefs:

  • Chase Daniel, QB: The Chiefs are scheduled to spend the third-most on quarterbacks in 2015 — Alex Smith will only be the 10th-highest paid QB this season, meaning that positional spending is driven in large part by Chase Daniel. The league’s highest-paid backup, the 28-year-old Daniel will count for $4.8MM against Kansas City’s cap. He’s earning similar money to that of a third-tier starter, and given that he’s attempted fewer than 60 passes over the past two seasons, it might have made sense for the team to go cheaper at the No. 2 spot. But given that it’s almost time for training camp and the Chiefs aren’t in dire financial straits, they’ll probably just keep Daniel around to act as top-notch insurance in the event of a Smith injury. Prediction: not released.
  • Derrick Johnson, LB: Johnson, 32, missed the majority of last year after tearing his Achilles, and given that none his $5.25MM cap figure is guaranteed, it’s conceivable that the Chiefs could move on. But that probably won’t happen for two reasons. First, club owner Clark Hunt said in March that Johnson is safe. “There will be a point in time where we address [his contract],” Hunt said. “But it just hasn’t been germane to this point.” Second, Johnson is still a solid player, and Kansas City will need his contributions if it hopes to improve upon its No. 19 DVOA ranking. The Chiefs navigated through the offseason despite their salary cap troubles, and now have nearly $9MM in space, so clearing Johnson’s money isn’t completely necessary. Prediction: not released.

Oakland Raiders:

  • Austin Howard, OL: After spending two years as the Jets’ starting right tackle, Howard signed a five-year, $30MM deal to join Oakland prior to last season and promptly moved to right guard. He’s projected to move back to tackle for the upcoming season, with veteran Khalif Barnes taking over at RG, but the right side of the Raiders’ line is still unsettled. Third-year pro Menelik Watson is a candidate to edge out Howard for the right tackle job, and if that happens, Howard could conceivably shift back to guard, or be moved to the bench. Of course, a final option would be for the club to release him, saving $5MM tis season. But Oakland would incur more than $4MM in 2016 dead money by doing so, and though Howard’s play was poor last year, the Raiders aren’t in any position to be casting off players who possess any modicum of talent. Prediction: not released.

San Diego Chargers:

  • Donald Brown, RB: Brown’s three-year, $10.5MM ($4MM guaranteed) deal with the Chargers already looked like an overpay when it was signed, and following Brown’s dreadful 2014 season, the pact looks even worse. Following injuries to Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead, Brown had an opportunity to take the starting running back job, but was wholly ineffective, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry on 85 attempts. Brown, 28, is an effective pass-blocker, but with first-rounder Melvin Gordon in tow, Woodhead expected to regain his third-down role, and Brandon Oliver coming off an impressive year-end run, Brown doesn’t figure to have role. San Diego can save $3MM by releasing him, and would carry just over $1MM in dead money. Prediction: released.
  • John Phillips, TE: The 28-year-old Phillips didn’t see the field much in 2014 while acting as San Diego’s third tight end — he played on only 202 snaps, but still managed to post a disappointing -7.0 grade per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). The Chargers could clear out Phillips’ $1.45MM base salary by cutting him, but with Antonio Gates suspended for the first four games of the season, Phillips will probably be back to serve as the club’s inline tight end while Ladarius Green acts the move option. Prediction: not released.
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Details On Marcus Mariota’s Partial Offsets

By | at July 25, 2015 6:26 pm

The Titans became the final team to come to terms with their first-round pick earlier this week, agreeing to a standard four-year deal with a fifth-year option with quarterback Marcus Mariota. The delay in negotiations was largely (if not entirely) due to haggling over offsets, and as such, the final contract reportedly contains partial offset language, the details of which we’ve learned today.

According to Tom Pelissero of USA Today (all Twitter links), the only portion of Mariota’s $24.214MM contract that would be subject to offsets are his base salaries, which total just $2.28MM. Mariota’s signing bonus, which is worth roughly $15.87MM, and his roster bonuses — $1.011MM in 2016, $2.021MM in 2017, and $3.032MM in 2018 — are protected. Additionally, Pelissero reports that those roster bonuses are due on the fifth day of training camp each year.

Speaking on the subject nearly two weeks ago, Titans CEO and president Steve Underwood seemed adamant that the club would not budge on the issue of offsets. “We’ve always had offset language in our player contracts. It’s nothing new,” Underwood said. “I think it is important where a high first-round draft pick is concerned, because it’s the precedent. Everything that we do is precedential for the next round of contracts.”

Instead, it appears as though Tennessee caved on the issue; the club could point to the fact that some offsets were included as a win, but for the most part, this looks like a victory for Mariota and his camp. For what it’s worth, No. 1 overall pick Jameis Winston didn’t force the issue on offsets, choosing instead to agree to a contract with the Bucs the day after he was drafted. Only one player selected in the top 10 – third overall pick Dante Fowler Jr. – has a deal without any offset language.

As explained by Luke Adams of PFR last summer, offset language relates to what happens to a player’s salary if he’s cut during the first four years of his career, while he’s still playing on his rookie contract. For the top 15 to 20 picks in the draft, those four-year salaries will be fully guaranteed, even if a player is waived at some point during those four seasons. For example, if a player has $4MM in guaranteed money remaining on his contract and is cut, he’ll still be owed that $4MM.

However, if a team has written offset language into the contract, that club can save some money if and when the player signs with a new team. For example, if that player who had $4MM in guaranteed money left on his contract signs with a new club on a $1MM deal, his old team would only be on the hook for $3MM, with the new team making up the difference. If there’s no offset language on that first deal, the old team would continue to be on the hook for the full $4MM, and the player would simply earn an additional $1MM from his new club.

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Offseason In Review: Chicago Bears

By | at July 22, 2015 8:58 am

The Bears were a trendy playoff pick heading into the 2014 season, but a 5-11 finish was followed by the dismissal of both general manager Phil Emery and head coach Marc Trestman. Now, Chicago might be entering rebuilding mode, though they did use free agency to bring in several interesting players.

Notable signings:

There’s no doubting that Eddie Royal is a solid football player — he was excellent out of the slot for the Chargers last season, catching 72 passes for 778 yards and seven touchdowns. And while his $5MM annual salary isn’t all that exorbitant (although it’s higher than Julian Edelman, for example, and equal to that of Emmanuel Sanders), it’s pretty surprising that the Bears handed Royal $10MM in guarantees. That’s more than Torrey Smith, who is widely regarded as a superior pass-catcher, garnered, and it ranks 16th among all receivers (not counting rookie deals). It might seem like Royal has been around forever, but he just turned 29, so perhaps his relative youth helped him score this contract, but I have a hard time believing many other clubs would have agreed to this deal. Chicago must be certain that the Royal/Jay Cutler relationship is strong enough to post positive results over the next three years.

Making the Royal deal all the more surprising is the fact that he got more guaranteed money than the Bears’ true free agent prize, pass-rusher Pernell McPhee. It’s hard to even label McPhee with a position, as we’ve seen him get after the quarterback from all along the defensive line and several linebacker positions, and it will be interesting to see where new Chicago defensive coordinator Vic Fangio asks 26-year-old line up. It’s a little hard to believe that while his total contract is valued at nearly $40MM, McPhee was only able to secure $8.75MM in guarantees. That could have something to do with his relative lack of experience, as 2014 was the first season that he topped 600 snaps on defense. We’ve seen other defensive players leave Baltimore via free agency and tank before, but the Bears certainly have high hopes for McPhee, who ranked as the second-best 3-4 outside linebacker in the league, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Elsewhere on the defensive side of the ball, the Bears added veteran safety Antrel Rolle, inking the former Giant to a three-year deal. Chicago ranked 29th in DVOA against the pass last season, running out the likes of Chris Conte for extended stretches of time. At age 32, Rolle probably isn’t the same player that he was during his early career in Arizona or his first few seasons in New York, but he should add a level of stability to Chicago’s back end that it hasn’t had in recent years. He’ll also act as a complement, and perhaps mentor, to second-year pro Brock Vereen, the projected starter at free safety.

Rolle wasn’t the only experienced defensive back signed by the Bears this offseason, as they also brought in cornerback Alan Ball, who spent the last two years in Jacksonville. He isn’t a star (PFF rated him as the No. 40 CB in ’14), but like Rolle, he’ll bring a level of competency a Chicago defense that sorely needs it. During the offseason, some around the league had said that the Bears’ defense was so poor last year that they might need 10 new starters (with Kyle Fuller being safe). Given the presence of Fuller and Tim Jennings, Ball won’t be on those new starters, but he will be an insurance option if something happens to the top two corners.

Outside of those four signings, the Bears didn’t do all that much in free agency. However, I was particularly impressed by new general manager Ryan Pace‘s use of the minimum salary benefit to bring in players who could contribute at a low cost. Sam Acho, for instance, could turn out to be a valuable addition, as the 26-year-old former Cardinal is capable of playing either inside or outside linebacker. Mason Foster, also only 26 years old, has four years experience as a starting middle linebacker. Will Montgomery ranked as the league’s 15th-best center per PFF last year despite playing less than 600 snaps. Those were my three favorite MSB additions, but it’s not impossible that players such as Jacquizz Rodgers, Tracy Porter, or Daniel Thomas could contribute something in 2015, as well. Pace was able to bring in a bevy of high-quality role players who won’t embarrass themselves if thrust into increased playing time, and did so while handing out less than $600K in guarantees.

Notable losses:

The Bears didn’t seem to make much of an effort to re-sign Stephen Paea, as the defensive lineman told reporters when he signed with Washington that he chose the nation’s capital over Dallas, Detroit, and Tampa, with no mention of Chicago. The 26-year-old graded as the No. 11 DT in the league according to PFF, and given that he’s earning just slightly more annually than Eddie Royal, I wonder if the Bears would have been wiser to spend that ~$5MM per year on Paea. Although he’s only played defensive tackle thus far in his career, the 6’1″, 300-pounder has the size to play 3-4 end (and it’s the role he’ll play in Washington).

Sentimentally, Chicago lost two of its most beloved defenders, linebacker Lance Briggs (who remains unsigned) and cornerback Charles Tillman (who joined the Panthers). Briggs, 34, played in only eight games last season but was the Bears’ third-best defender per PFF, while Tillman appeared in just two games before injuring his triceps. It makes sense that neither was retained given that the club is going younger on defense, but I wonder if Briggs might be an option later in training if Vic Fangio is unhappy with his crop of inside linebackers.

Another long-time Bear — center Roberto Garza — was released in April despite having signed a one-year extension in December. The pact was inked by the club’s regime, so it’s clear that Ryan Pace & Co. didn’t value Garza at the same level. Garza, 36, had been with the Bears since the 2005 season, playing 154 regular season contests (145 starts) during that stretch, primarily at center and right guard. Chicago also declined to bring back fellow center Brian De La Puente, who had a very successful season in ’14 during which he saw 501 snaps, mostly while filling in at center for Garza during the early portion of the year. De La Puente is only 30 years old and had to surprisingly accept a one-year deal for the minimum salary benefit last offseason, and he remains unsigned as of this writing.

Safety Chris Conte offered youth (he’s entering his age-26 season) and experience (more than 600 snaps in each of his first three seasons), but he’s dealt with shoulder injuries throughout his career and has produced at merely an average level. In 2014, Conte graded as the No. 63 safety among 87 qualifiers per PFF. He’d been better than that in the two seasons prior, but he’s always been in the middle of the pack relative to his peers. The Bears moved on, adding the veteran Antrel Rolle as a replacement, while Conte followed ex-Bears HC Lovie Smith to Tampa Bay.

Josh Morgan actually played a decent number of snaps while acting as Chicago’s third receiver last season, but the team added Kevin White in the draft and will hope that Marquess Wilson will take the next step and supplant Morgan, who signed with the Saints. The only notable departure who saw more than 400 snaps was inside linebacker D.J. Williams, who, at age 33 and having dealt with multiple injuries in recent years, might be nearing the end of his NFL run.

 Trades:

The Bears didn’t move around at all during the draft, but they did swing a trade near the beginning of the league year, shipping veteran receiver Brandon Marshall to the Jets. Marshall was among the NFL’s best receivers as recently as 2013, but last season saw him catch just 61 passes for 721 yards, and he missed the final three games with broken ribs. The 31-year-old was due a 2015 base salary of $7.5MM and scheduled to count $9.575MM against the cap.

Marshall’s 2015 salary was set to become guaranteed on the third day of the 2015 league year, so Chicago was forced to quickly make a deal to clear his that total. The club will carry $5.625MM in dead money this year as a result of the trade.

Draft picks:

  • 1-7: Kevin White, WR (West Virginia): Signed
  • 2-39: Eddie Goldman, DT (Florida State): Signed
  • 3-71: Hroniss Grasu, OL (Oregon): Signed
  • 4-106: Jeremy Langford, RB (Michigan State): Signed
  • 5-142: Adrian Amos, S (Penn State): Signed
  • 6-183: Tayo Fabuluje, T (TCU): Signed

Kevin White and Eddie Goldman, Chicago’s top two selections, will be counted on to start almost immediately, with White replacing the production of Brandon Marshall, and Goldman pushing Will Sutton for snaps at nose tackle. It remains to be seen how White will acclimate to the NFL; there’s no doubting his speed and/or raw ability, but some wonder if he’ll need some time to refine his game.

Hroniss Grassu, like Goldman, will have to compete for snaps with Will Montgomery, and the veteran probably has the edge here, though Grassu could also act as insurance at guard in case Matt Slauson suffers another injury. Jeremy Langford will join Ka’Deem Carey, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Daniel Thomas in the race to back up Matt Forte, and most think Langford has the most long-term value of that group.

Other:

Phil Emery‘s run as the Bears’ general manager — highlighted by the ill-advised seven-year extension handed to Jay Cutler — officially came to end in December, and the team fired head coach Marc Trestman on the same day. Though the duo had fielded a largely successful club in 2013, 2014 saw number of issues — discord among players, offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer throwing Cutler under the bus, failed signings such as Jared Allen and Lamarr Houston — come to the forefront, leading the pair to be ousted after only two years on the job.

To replace Emery, the Bears settled on former Saints executive Ryan Pace as their new GM after a search that saw Chicago meet with Chris Ballard of the Chiefs, Brian Gaine of the Dolphins, and Lake Dawson of the Titans. At 37, Pace becomes the youngest general manager in the league. It was fair to wonder if Pace would employ the same sort of contract structures in Chicago that often led the Saints to having little or no cap space, but given that Pace’s title was player personnel director, he probably doesn’t deserve blame for New Orleans’ cap woes.

Aside from the Broncos, the Bears interviewed the fewest candidates of any club searching for a new head coach. Chicago was one of only two teams who were replacing its general manager in addition to its HC, so it’s possible they wanted to have Pace in place before getting too deep into its coaching hunt. But it’s also conceivable the Bears simply got lucky, as just four days after Denver parted ways with John Fox, Chicago scooped him up, signing the 60-year-old to a four-year contract. Fox, entering his 14th season as an NFL head coach, will bring Adam Gase with him from Denver to head up the offense, while adding former 49ers DC Vic Fangio to lead the defense (and shift to a 3-4 scheme).

The one true black mark of Chicago’s offseason was the signing of defensive end Ray McDonald, who had already been in legal trouble twice (domestic violence and sexual assault) before joining the Bears. Financially, it was a no-risk signing for the club, but the optics could not have been worse. The public relations backlash only increased when McDonald was arrested again just two months after inking his contract, this time on charges of domestic violence and child endangerment. Chicago released McDonald almost immediately, but the reaction following the incident was clear — Pace had made the first big mistake of his tenure.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. Jay Cutler, QB: $16,500,000
  2. Jared Allen, DE/OLB: $12,500,000
  3. Matt Forte, RB: $9,200,000
  4. Jermon Bushrod, LT: $8,050,000
  5. Lamarr Houston, DE/OLB: $6,990,000
  6. Pernell McPhee, OLB: $6,675,000
  7. Martellus Bennett, TE: $6,125,000
  8. Brandon Marshall, WR: $5,625,000 (dead money)
  9. Eddie Royal, WR: $5,500,000
  10. Tim Jennings, CB: $5,250,000

2014 will probably be something of a rebuilding year for the Bears. Turnarounds can happen quickly in the NFL, and given that Chicago hired a veteran coach in John Fox, it’s probably aiming to be in contention again in the very near future. But with three other solid teams in the division, it’s quite possible that the Bears are cellar-dwellers once again, barring vast improvement on the part of either Jay Cutler or the defense as a whole.

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

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2015 Release Candidates: NFC South

By | at July 19, 2015 4:33 pm

Most clubs have fairly set rosters at this point, as OTA, minicamp, and preseason performances won’t do much to alter roster composition. The majority of key releases came in March, but there are still several scenarios where certain contributors could lose their roster spot in the coming months. For the most part, we’ll focus on situations where the cap savings would be in excess of $1MM.

Because free agency has already passed, financial ramifications won’t play a huge role in these decisions; there aren’t a ton of high-profile free agents on which to spend that saved money, so these calls will mostly be made based on performance. However, any cap space saved through these potential releases could be rolled over into 2016, so that’s something clubs have to consider.

We’ve already looked at the AFC East, NFC East, AFC North, NFC North, and AFC South, so let’s dive into the NFC South…

Atlanta Falcons:

  • Jonathan Babineaux, DT: The Falcons have accumulated quite a bit of defensive line depth over the past few years, signing Tyson Jackson, Paul Soliai, Adrian Clayborn, and O’Brien Schofield and using draft picks on Vic Beasley, Ra’Shede Hageman, and Grady Jarrett, as well as re-signing Kroy Biermann earlier this year. The lone constant has been the 34-year-old Babineaux, who has been with Atlanta since being selected in the second round of the 2005 draft. Given his age, the club’s newfound depth at his position, and the fact that the Falcons could save nearly $3MM by cutting him, he sounds like an ideal candidate for release, right? However, new head coach Dan Quinn likes to use a rotation along his defensive line, and more importantly, Babineaux was pretty good last year, grading as the league’s No. 28 defensive tackle and rushing the passer quite effectively, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Prediction: not released.

Carolina Panthers:

  • Jerricho Cotchery, WR: Spending 70% of his time in the slot last season, Cotchery nearly replicated his reception and yardage statistics from the year prior, catching 48 balls for 480 yards, but his touchdown numbers lagged far behind, as he scored just once as compared to 10 times in 2014 with the Steelers. The Panthers invested a second-round pick in Michigan receiver Devin Funchess, and the club likely hopes that he’ll ascend to the starting lineup immediately, joining last year’s first-rounder Kelvin Benjamin. Free agent addition Ted Ginn Jr. figures to take some of Cotchery’s snaps in the slot, and other than Ginn Jr., Carolina is going with at youth movement at receiver, with Jarrett Boykin, Mike Brown, and Stephen Hill fighting for playing time. Cotchery isn’t a bad player, but he doesn’t seem to fit with the team’s roster construction, and the Panthers can save $1.5MM by cutting him. Prediction: released.
  • Roman Harper, S: Harper, 32, started all 16 games for the Panthers last season, posting 41 tackles and a career-high four interceptions. Based on PFF’s metrics, Harper produced his best season since 2010, but his overall grade of +0.1 was still just barely above-average, ranking 46th among 87 qualifiers. Carolina’s issues in the secondary have been well-documented in the past couple years, but now that the club has some other options in the back end — Tre Boston emerged as a rookie last year, and the Panthers signed Kurt Coleman to a two-year deal in March — I don’t see Carolina being too desperate to hanging on to Harper, especially given that they can save $1.5MM by severing ties. Prediction: released.
  • Mike Tolbert, RB: Tolbert is an odd player in today’s NFL: He doesn’t fit the H-back mold, instead acting as a running back/fullback hybrid that doesn’t really exist in the league anymore. After suffering a hairline fracture in his left leg during Week 3 of last season, Tolbert was placed on IR/designated to return, ultimately coming back in Week 13. He’s nearly 30 years old, but given that Carolina doesn’t have a ton of depth behind Jonathan Stewart after releasing DeAngelo Williams, Tolbert should be safe. The Panthers would incur $1MM in dead money by cutting him. Prediction: not released.

New Orleans Saints:

  • Ben Watson, TE: Those around the Saints have talked up third-year pro Josh Hill as the leading candidate to replace tight end Jimmy Graham, who was traded to the Seahawks over the offseason. But Hill doesn’t have much in the way of experience, having logged just 20 receptions during his first two seasons, and earlier today Mike Triplett of ESPN.com wrote that he expects New Orleans to use a committee approach at tight end. All of which is to say that 34-year-old Ben Watson is probably safe for 2015; the club would only save $1.5MM by cutting him, and they probably value his veteran presence enough to keep him around. Prediction: not released.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

  • Michael Koenen, P: Koenen is the sixth-highest paid punter in the league in terms of annual value, and his 2015 cap hit is also sixth at his position. However, he finished fourth-worst in terms of net punting average last year, and though he finished with a positive grade from PFF, he still ranked only 23rd among 41 qualifiers. Koenen has no remaining bonus money or guarantees left on his current deal, so the Buccaneers could cut him at anytime, clearing out his $3.25MM salaries for ’15 and ’16. Maybe they’ll wait until training camp or the preseason to see how Koenen looks, but I think they’ll probably cut him and look for a cheaper (and younger) option. Prediction: released.
  • Brandon Myers, TE: Now 29 years of age, Myers has seen a swift decline since his high-water mark season with Oakland in 2012: His receptions have dropped from 79 to 47 to 22 in the past three seasons, while his receiving yards have decreased from 806 to 522 to 190. 2014 second-round pick Austin Seferian-Jenkins is expected to take on a larger role next season, Luke Stocker will maintain his in-lone blocking job, while Tampa also re-acquired Tim Wright via waivers. It doesn’t look like there will be a spot for Myers, or his $3MM+ in cap charges over the next two seasons. Prediction: released.
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Tom Brady’s Camp Expects Ruling This Week

By | at July 19, 2015 3:24 pm

Tom Brady and his team expect a decision regarding his suspension appeal to be made this week, a source tells Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. Commissioner Roger Goodell has had post-hearing briefs from both the league and the union for more than two weeks, writes Florio, and with training camp right around the corner, anticipation is building for a ruling.

Per Florio’s source, the decision is expected to be a “sham” — such wording not only indicates that Brady’s four-game suspension is either not expected to be reduced or not reduced enough (in the eyes of Brady), but that Florio’s source is likely someone on the Brady team. Once the ruling is handed down, Brady and the NFLPA are expected to file suit, and as Florio adds, the question then becomes whether Brady will seek a temporary injunction, which would allow him to play against the Steelers opening night, even if he ends up serving a suspension at some point.

In a separate post, Florio outlines what a Brady lawsuit would look like, explaining that challenges to arbitration are made on narrow bases, so the entire process should play out pretty quickly. In fact, the goal of such a suit would be that a final decision is reached before Week 1.

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