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PFR Originals: 7/12/15 – 7/19/15

By | at July 19, 2015 2:43 pm

The original content and analysis produced the PFR staff during the past seven days:

  • Four of the five franchise-tagged players reached extensions with their respective clubs, and Luke Adams posted a recap of all the action complete with contract details.
  • In our Offseason In Review series, Zach Links covered the Browns, Steelers, and Vikings; Rory Parks looked at the Packers; I wrote up the Bengals; and Sam Robinson examined the Giants.
  • Working through each division, I touched on the AFC South while looking at 2015 candidates for release.
  • Writing that Muhammad Wilkerson probably won’t be able to reach the $100MM stratosphere occupied by J.J. Watt (and now) Justin Houston, Rob DiRe wondered if the Jets defensive end will be able to reach a long-term deal worth $70MM in his examination of the extension candidate.
  • Luke went over some important remaining 2015 NFL dates on the calendar, including league meetings, the trade deadline, and more.
  • We continued our Community Tailgate series, posting topics for discussions and encouraging you to voice your thoughts in the comments section. The subjects covered by Luke and Zach last week:
    • Is Justin Houston was worth a $100MM contract? (link)
    • Would the Broncos would reach a long-term pact with Demaryius Thomas? (link)
    • Which franchise player long-term extension with the most surprising? (link)
    • Who will win the NFC North? (link)
    • Will Chris Johnson land a contract? (link)
0 comments PFR Originals

Week In Review: 7/12/15 – 7/19/15

By | at July 19, 2015 1:45 pm

The headlines from the past week at PFR:

Franchise Players:

Extended:

Signed:

Waived:

Suspended:

Retired:

Contracts:

Other:

0 comments Week In Review

2015 Release Candidates: AFC South

By | at July 14, 2015 6:04 pm

Most clubs have fairly set rosters at this point, as OTA, minicamp, and preseason performances won’t do much to alter roster composition. The majority of key releases came in March, but there are still several scenarios where certain contributors could lose their roster spot in the coming months. For the most part, we’ll focus on situations where the cap savings would be in excess of $1MM.

Because free agency has already passed, financial ramifications won’t play a huge role in these decisions; there aren’t a ton of high-profile free agents on which to spend that saved money, so these calls will mostly be made based on performance. However, any cap space saved through these potential releases could be rolled over into 2016, so that’s something clubs have to consider.

We’ve already looked at the AFC East, NFC East, AFC North, and NFC North, so let’s dive into the AFC South…

Houston Texans:

  • Garrett Graham, TE: After posting a solid a 49/545/5 line during the 2014 campaign (and subsequently signing a three-year, $11.25MM deal), Graham regressed last season, catching just 18 balls for 197 yards and one score, missing the final four weeks of the season after suffering a high ankle sprain. Graham’s numbers can somewhat be forgiven due to the quality of quarterback play in Houston last season, but he wasn’t effective as a blocker, either. He’s due $3MM in base salary in each of the next two seasons, and while the Texans could save a decent amount (about $3.1MM) by releasing him now, he’s set to be the club’s starting tight end. Perhaps if Ryan Griffin or second-year pro C.J. Fiedorowicz — neither of who was overly productive last season — shows something during the preseason, there might be an infinitesimal chance that Graham is cut. But given head coach Bill O’Brien‘s affinity for tight end usage, it’s unlikely he’d cut ties with Graham. Prediction: not released.

Indianapolis Colts:

  • Gosder Cherilus/Lance Louis/Donald Thomas, OL: While three-fifths of the Colts’ offensive line is relatively set — LT Anthony Castonzo, C Khaled Holmes, RG Todd Herremans — the left guard and right tackle positions are in a state of flux. 2014 second-rounder Jack Mewhort is versatile enough to play at both spots, and he’ll likely fill one of those roles; whether Indianapolis slots him in at guard or tackle could determine the roster fate of one or more of Cherilus, Louis, or Thomas. Recovery from injuries could also play a factor here, as Cherilus is coming back from knee surgery (and just had a scope in January), while Thomas has missed the better part of the last two seasons dealing with a torn quadriceps. Overall it’s a difficult scenario — Louis has the worst track record but would save the Colts the least money if released, while Cherilus and Thomas each have a better history of production but would save Indy $4MM each if cut. Unfortunately, it doesn’t sound like Thomas’ recovery is going very well, so for now I’ll guess that he’ll be out. Meanwhile, if Mewhort takes over right tackle, and the club can rely on some combination of Louis, Joe Reitz, and CFL signee Ben Heenan to man left guard, I could see Cherilus being released as well. But given that the Colts would incur $2.9MM in dead money (as opposed to that $4MM in savings), I think he’ll stick for one more season. Prediction: Thomas released.
  • Robert Mathis, LB: Like Thomas, Mathis missed last season after suffering a major injury — in Mathis’ case, a torn Achilles — and also like Thomas, his rehab process isn’t going as well as he’d hoped. The 34-year-old reportedly suffered a setback in February, and two months later he told SiriuxXM Radio that his recovery was lagging. The Colts actually extended Mathis last fall as part of an interesting contractual compromise. Indy wasn’t obligated to compensate Mathis during the 2014 season because he was on the non-football injury list, as a result of his Achilles tear occurring during a private workout, but the club paid him anyway. In exchange, Mathis converted his $3MM roster bonus that was set to be paid in March 2015 into per-game roster bonuses, meaning he’ll only get that money if he’s on the field. The Colts also tacked an extra year (2016) onto his deal, but that year contains no guaranteed money. In short, if the team feels that Mathis isn’t healthy enough to contribute during the upcoming season, they can now release him with far less financial penalty. Whether he will be healthy enough is hard to say until training camp gets underway, but it’s hard to bet on a player in his mid-30s coming off a significant injury who plays a position that relies on explosion. Prediction: released.

Jacksonville Jaguars:

  • Chris Clemons, DE: Signed to a four-year deal just last offseason that reunited him with Jaguars head coach(and former Seahawks DC) Gus Bradley, Clemons disappointed in his first season with the club, grading as the league’s second-worst 4-3 defensive end, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), a far cry from his tenure in Seattle when he ranked as a top-12 each year from 2010-12. Turning 34 years old in October, it doesn’t appear that Clemons has much left in the tank. Had third overall selection Dante Fowler Jr. not torn his ACL earlier this year, I would have thought it nearly 100% certain that Clemons is released. Jacksonville still has a bevy of defensive line talent available, however, so I’d still put the odds at around 85%. Clemons had no guaranteed money included in his contract beyond 2014, so the Jags won’t be strapped with any dead money. Prediction: released.
  • Toby Gerhart, RB: Gerhart didn’t transition well in his shift from Adrian Peterson‘s backup to Jacksonville’s starter; he finished the year with just 101 carries, averaging only 3.2 yards per carry. With the Jaguars having used a second-round pick on running back T.J. Yeldon (who will presumably pair with 2014 pleasant surprise Denard Robinson), and with Gerhart not being due any guarantees for the remainder of his deal, it seemed likely that he’d be cut. But reports have indicated that the Jags are likely to keep Gerhart around, using him in something of a fullback/H-back hybrid role. The SB Nation blog Big Cat Country, in fact, posted an excellent piece earlier this week examining how new Jaguars OC Greg Olson could utilize Gerhart in a manner similar to Marcel Reece (whom Olson coached in Oakland). Prediction: not released.
  • Ziggy Hood, DL: Like Clemons and Gerhart, Hood was another 2014 offseason addition who wasn’t all that productive during his first season in northeast Florida. A former first-round pick of the Steelers, Hood is certainly a capable rotational defensive lineman. But the Jags have been collecting a stable of DLs over the past year or so, and with Jared Odrick, a recovering Sen’Derrick Marks and Roy Miller, Ryan Davis, Andre Branch, and rookie Michael Bennett, I thought there might be a chance Hood is let go. But given that Marks will still be coming back from his torn ACL, Hood is probably safe. Prediction: not released.

Tennessee Titans:

  • Michael Griffin, S: The 30-year-old Griffin’s roller coaster-like production over the past four seasons is very strange: PFF graded him as a top-15 safety in both 2011 and 2013, but as a bottom-five safety in both 2012 and 2014. Griffin is due to count $8.1MM against the cap in 2015, he’s coming off both shoulder and knee surgeries, and he was the subject of trade rumors last fall, so calling him a candidate for release is not a stretch. But the Titans don’t have much safety depth behind Griffin and free agent addition Da’Norris Searcy, so Griffin will likely stick on the 53-man roster. Prediction: not released.
  • Andy Levitre, G: Levitre has never been the same player he was in Buffalo since joining Tennessee on a six-year, $48.6MM contract before the 2013 season, but he hasn’t been bad by any stretch of the imagination. He actually ranked as a top-15 guard in 2013 before falling to No. 45 last season (per PFF), but even that 2014 ranking meant he was simply a middle of the pack lineman. Of course, “serviceable” isn’t what the Titans were looking for when they guaranteed Levitre $13MM, but now that it sounds like he’s completely healthy, it doesn’t make sense for the Titans to give up now. Prediction: not released.
  • Ropati Pitoitua, DL: Despite placing within the Titans’ top 10 cap charges, Pitoitua was demoted to the second team during summer practices in favor of last year’s fourth-round pick, DaQuan Jones. Now 30 years old, Pitoitua isn’t a great pass rusher, but he can hold up against the run. The question becomes whether a reserve run-stuffing defensive end is worth a $3.5MM+ cap hit, especially when the club could save nearly $3MM by releasing him. The answer is probably no, but given that Pitoitua could act as insurance if Jones flops, and the fact that the Titans don’t have any cap space issues, I think he’s safe. Prediction: not released.
  • Charlie Whitehurst, QB: With Marcus Mariota in town (yet still unsigned), and 2014 draft pick Zach Mettenberger on the roster, I can’t see any way that the Titans choose to keep Whitehurst (and his $2.5MM cap figure) on the roster. Unless the club does decide to trade Mettenberger — a scenario that likely would have already played out — the Titans will probably cut Whitehurst, saving $2MM in the process. Prediction: released.
2 comments Houston Texans Indianapolis Colts Jacksonville Jaguars PFR Originals Tennessee Titans

Latest On Bills OL Coach Aaron Kromer

By | at July 12, 2015 4:41 pm

The details of Bills offensive line coach Aaron Kromer‘s arrest are pretty unsettling, and while it’s obviously too early for speculation, it’s hard to see how Buffalo can keep Kromer on staff. Let’s take a look at some reaction to the incident, as well as some preliminary options if the Bills do decide to move on from Kromer…

  • If Kromer loses his job as a result of his arrest, Buffalo will need to find someone to fill his role, and Mike Rodak of ESPN.com runs through several options. Promoting assistant OL coach Kurt Anderson probably makes the most sense, writes Rodak, as Anderson is the only Bills coach who has dealt with club’s offensive line since the spring. Other options might include asking OC Greg Roman to handle dual roles, or hiring from the outside, which is unlikely. Rodak adds that Buffalo did interview both Chris Foerster and Mike Solari during the offseason, but both have since found work with other teams.
  • Along the same lines, Jason Cole of Bleacher Report (Twitter link) says the Bills could look to bring Pat Thomas — who was the club’s offensive line coach from 2013-14 — back in the fold. Thomas was let go by the Rex Ryan regime following last season, so it’d be a little strange for him to return to Buffalo at this point. Ex-Jaguars O-line coach George Yarno could also be an option, per Cole; Yarno is doing quite well in his recovery from cancer, so much so that he could re-enter the coaching ranks.
  • In a separate piece, Rodak examines which Bills offensive lineman would be most affected by the loss of Kromer, pointing to two young lineman — Seantrel Henderson and Cyrus Kouandjio — as two players whose outlook might change if Kromer is out. Henderson, for his part, was recently demoted to the second team, and Rodak believes he might actually benefit from a change in coaches. Kouandjio, however, seems to have to taken to Kromer, so the loss of a position coach would presumably have an adverse effect.
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Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Bengals

By | at July 12, 2015 3:41 pm

The early-2000’s “Cincinnati Bungles” moniker is no longer appropriate for the club that resides in the Queen City. Yes, the team has gone one-and-out in the playoffs in each of the last four seasons, and yes, head coach Marvin Lewis is still 0-6 overall in the postseason. But the mere fact that that Bengals have earned a playoff berth for four consecutive years is impressive in and of itself, and the organization — through its approach to the draft, free agency, and the salary cap — is on its way to becoming one of the more respected franchises in the NFL. How did the offseason’s happenings affect their fortunes?

Notable signings:

Armed with nearly $35MM of cap space when the offseason began, the Bengals — as is their wont — didn’t do all that much during free agency, handing out just $15.655MM in total guarantees. Sticking to their strategy of signing and retaining familiar players, Cincinnati gave money to just three players — linebacker A.J. Hawk, receiver Denarius Moore, and safety Shiloh Keo — who hadn’t played for the club at some point during their career.

Defensive end Michael Johnson was one of four signees who had previously spent time in the Queen City; the 28-year-old had spent the first five seasons of his career with the Bengals before defecting to Tampa Bay prior to the 2014 season. The Buccaneers released Johnson just one season into a five-year deal, incurring $7MM in dead money in the process, and the Bengals quickly swooped in (warding off former defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer and the Vikings) to reunite with the veteran end, agreeing to a four-year pact that, while worth $26MM in total, contains just $4.5MM in guaranteed money. Johnson isn’t the sort of elite pass rusher than many thought Cincinnati — which finished with an NFL-low 20 sacks — might go after in free agency, but he did post two top 10 finishes among 4-3 defensive ends during his last two seasons with the Bengals, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), thanks in large part to his acumen against the run.

Unlike Johnson, guard Clint Boling never left Cincinnati, re-signing on a four-year, $26MM deal on the second day of free agency after the Jets, Falcons, and Vikings all expressed interest. Boling, 26, has been a full-time starter along the Bengals’ front five for three seasons, starting 44 games during that span. After grading as PFF’s 20th-best guard in 2014, he’ll continue to add stability to an offensive line that, for 2015 at least, should remain intact, before serving as a veteran presence in the years to come, when said line could see some upheaval — more on that later.

At linebacker, Cincinnati re-signed Rey Maualuga, who will man the middle of the defense for the seventh straight season. In our Bengals Offseason Outlook post earlier this year, I wrote that Maualuga should probably expect to be retained via a modest, one-year deal, similar to the contracts he’d signed with the club in the past. So it was a bit surprising to see the Bengals not only commit to three years with the former second-round pick, but hand him the same amount of guaranteed cash that Johnson received. Maualuga has never been an above-average player, but he’s reliable and well-versed in the team’s defensive scheme, qualities Cincinnati obviously values. The club also brought in former Packer A. J. Hawk on a short-term agreement, and while the veteran has certainly lost a step, he’s capable of acting in a reserve role, and could be valuable insurance in the event that Vontaze Burfict continues to deal with injuries.

The rest of Cincinnati’s additions are a mix of backup/special team-type players (Eric Winston, Cedric Peerman), veterans unlikely to make the final 53-man roster (Brandon Tate, Devon Still) and interesting dart throws, one of which is receiver Denarius Moore. Though it seems as though he’s been in the league for quite a long time, Moore is still only 26 years old, and though his 2015 was a far cry from his 2012-13 numbers — when he averaged a 48/618/6 line — he’s proficient enough to serve as the Bengals’ fourth receiver.

Notable losses:

The Bengals didn’t add much in free agency, but they also didn’t lose a ton, either, as their biggest loss is tight end Jermaine Gresham, who as of this writing still hasn’t found a new team (largely due to his undergoing back surgery earlier this year). Gresham played the most 2014 snaps of any departing free agent (900 on the dot), but he wasn’t overly effective outside of pass blocking situations. A return to Cincinnati can all but be ruled out — Gresham reportedly angered some in the locker room by failing to play through injuries near the end of the season (though the fact that he had surgery might prove that said injuries were more serious than originally thought) — as the club will turn to Tyler Eifert and two draft picks to fortify the tight end position.

At age 36, Terence Newman actually played the second-most snaps of any Bengals cornerback, as the club continued to take the slow route in terms of Dre Kirkpatrick and Darqueze Dennard‘s development. But with those two primed to take on a larger role in 2015, Leon Hall assigned to slot duties, and fellow veteran Adam Jones still hanging around, it didn’t make sense for Cincinnati to retain Newman, who’d been with with the club for three years. Newman, a first-round pick way back in 2003, followed Zimmer to Minnesota, inking a one-year, $2.5MM deal. Taylor Mays — a defensive back who had primarily become a dime linebacker — also won’t be back, having already joined two NFC North clubs (Vikings, then Lions) this offseason.

Quarterback Jason Campbell is three years younger than Newman, but it sounds as if he’s already set to call it a career, as reports last month indicated that although nothing is official, Campbell is planning to retire in the near future. The news isn’t that important in and of itself (Campbell only attempted 19 passes last year), but it does mean that second-year pro A.J. McCarron is poised to take over the No. 2 quarterback job. The Bengals have already signed and released Terrelle Pryor, and while veteran Josh Johnson is back in town after a one-year hiatus, most expect McCarron to run with the backup job in 2015.

Along the offensive line, Cincinnati saw the loss of both Marshall Newhouse and Mike Pollak — both played around 400-450 snaps last season, but Pollak was the more effective player according to PFF, garnering a +5.0 grade compared to Newhouse’s -11.6. The Bengals didn’t attempt to re-sign Newhouse, as he he wouldn’t have had a role given that the club spent two high draft picks on offensive tackles. Pollak, meanwhile, was released, and subsequently retired a few months later.

Finally, defensive end Robert Geathers may have had the quietest exit of any player who had spent more than a decade with a club. The 31-year-old once posted 10.5 sacks (back in 2006) and had started 104 games during his tenure in Cincinnati, but he hadn’t registered a start in more than two years. Given that he ranked dead last in PFF’s 4-3 defensive end rankings, it’s conceivable that Geathers’ career is over.

 Draft picks:

  • 1-21: Cedric Ogbuehi, OL (Texas A&M): Signed
  • 2-53: Jake Fisher, T (Oregon): Signed
  • 3-85: Tyler Kroft, TE (Rutgers): Signed
  • 3-99: Paul Dawson, LB (TCU): Signed
  • 4-120: Josh Shaw, DB (USC): Signed
  • 4-135: Marcus Hardison, DT (Arizona State): Signed
  • 5-157: C.J. Uzomah, TE (Auburn): Signed
  • 6-197: Derron Smith, S (Fresno State): Signed
  • 7-238: Mario Alford, WR/KR (West Virginia): Signed

Both Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher were popular Bengals targets in mock drafts leading up to the actual event, but almost everyone was surprised that the club snagged both of them. Not only did most people think Fisher would be gone by pick No. 53, but no one surmised that Cincinnati would use its first two picks on offensive lineman, especially given that the team’s front five is mostly set. But with Andrew Whitworth and Andre Smith both heading for free agency at year’s end, the picks could prove astute.

Ogbuehi, recovering from a ACL tear, is a candidate to begin the season on the physically unable to perform list. Even if he is healthy enough to play at some point this season, his snaps figure to be limited by the presence of Whitworth. While his ascendance to playing time might wait until 2016, Fisher could see a fair amount of snaps this year. Cincinnati coaches worked Fisher at nearly every spot along the line during rookie minicamp and OTAs, so he could fill in either at tackle or guard in the event of an injury (or even supplant Smith at right tackle if the veteran struggles again in 2015).

Elsewhere, Tyler Kroft and C.J. Uzomah will be pressed into duty almost immediately, as they’re expected to act as starter Tyler Eifert‘s backups at tight end. Paul Dawson, who fell in the draft due to character concerns, has been lauded as a steal by those in the know, with some painting him as a poor man’s Vontaze Burfict. Josh Shaw and Derron Smith will compete for backup spots in the secondary, while Mario Alford is likely to push Brandon Tate off the roster.

It’s odd, but the Bengals rookie that figures to see the most snaps in 2015 (barring injuries) is Kroft, the team’s third-round pick. Given the state of the club’s offensive line, Ogbuehi’s recovery from injury, and the lack of depth at tight end, Kroft will be thrown into the fire immediately.

Other:

Marvin Lewis inked his 8th new contract/extension with the Bengals, and for the second consecutive year, he signed a deal that will extend his contract by one season. Thanks to the fresh contract, he won’t be a lame duck coach, but if the Bengals once again fail to win a playoff game, it’s fair to wonder if Lewis will be around much longer. Lewis, the second-longest tenured head coach in the NFL, owns the record for most career victories by a Bengals head coach.

Cincinnati picked up the fifth-year options on both Dre Kirkpatrick and Kevin Zeitler, and an April report indicated that the club is anxious to sign both to long-term extensions. The Bengals just invested a hefty sum in fellow guard Clint Boling, and drafted offensive lineman with their first two picks, so they might have some leverage over Zeitler as talks progress. Kirkpatrick is probably more important to lock up — as Leon Hall and Adam Jones age, Kirkpatrick is essentially the team’s No. 1 corner.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. A.J. Green, WR: $10,176,000
  2. Andy Dalton, QB: $9,600,000
  3. Leon Hall, CB: $9,600,000
  4. Geno Atkins, DT: $9,000,000
  5. Rey Maualuga, LB: $7,137,500
  6. Andre Smith, RT: $6,362,500
  7. Andrew Whitworth, LT: $6,200,000
  8. Vontaze Burfict, LB: $5,175,000
  9. Clint Boling, G: $5,100,000
  10. Carlos Dunlap, DE: $4,900,000

Anyone expecting the Bengals to have an overly active offseason was — predictably — disappointed once again. Cincinnati will never be a club that goes after the Ndamukong Suh‘s of the world, but they will keep their own, as evidenced by their retaining players like Boling and Maualuga, and bringing back familiar faces like Johnson. It’s an approach that works (see: Green Bay Packers), but until the Bengals finally get over the hump and win a playoff game, it won’t mean much to those observing the team.

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

0 comments Cincinnati Bengals Offseason In Review PFR Originals

PFR Originals: 7/5/15 – 7/12/15

By | at July 12, 2015 2:45 pm

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past seven days:

  • We continued our 2015 Offseason In Review series, going over each club’s notable signings and losses, trades, draft picks, coaching changes, and more. This week, we touched on NFC East, AFC East, and AFC North clubs: Zach Links looked at the Eagles, Washington, the Cowboys, and the Patriots; Rob DiRe examined the Dolphins; and Rory Parks dove into the Ravens.
  • Luke Adams posted his analysis of the largest 2015 cap hits by division, looking at the AFC South, NFC West, and AFC West this week.
  • I continued to go over potential candidates for release in each division, and this week delved into the AFC North and NFC North.
  • Connor Byrne examined the extension case for Bills offensive tackle Cordy Glenn, positing that Jared Veldheer‘s five-year, $35MM deal with the Cardinals could be used as a comparable.
  • Following Jason Pierre-Paul‘s fireworks accident, Luke listed several contractual scenarios for the Giants and the defensive end, noting that JPP’s injury makes the situation cloudy for the franchise-tagged player.
  • Zach and Luke posted several topics for discussion in this week’s Community Tailgate series, encouraging readers to post their thoughts in the comment section. The subjects covered this week:
    • How the Giants should handle the Pierre-Paul contract situation (link)
    • Who will win the NFC East (link)
    • Who will the AFC North (link)
    • The outcome of Tom Brady‘s suspension appeal (link)
    • Whether the reduction of Greg Hardy‘s suspension to four games is fair (link)
0 comments PFR Originals

Week In Review: 7/5/15 – 7/12/15

By | at July 12, 2015 1:49 pm

The headlines from the past week at PFR:

Key News:

  • Jason Pierre-Paul was injured in a July 4 weekend fireworks mishap. The fallout surrounding the Giants defensive end:
  • Cowboys defensive end Greg Hardy‘s suspension resulting from his 2014 domestic violence incident was reduced from 10 games to four.
  • The Rams selected Clemson offensive tackle Isaiah Battle in the fifth round of the supplemental draft, meaning the club will sacrifice a 2016 fifth-rounder.
  • The Rose Bowl declined to be a temporary stadium for a potentially relocated NFL team.
  • The NFLPA is investigating a possible collusion case against the Cowboys and Broncos regarding the contract negotiations of Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas, respectively.

Extended:

Other:

  • Packers don’t plan to release TE Andrew Quarless following his arrest (link)
  • Buccaneers CB C.J. Wilson‘s career in jeopardy following fireworks accident (link)
  • NFL will play games in new London stadium beginning in 2018 (link)
  • Bills OL coach Aaron Kromer arrested (link)
  • CAA will acquire Todd France’s Five Star agency (link)
0 comments Week In Review

Extra Points: Hardy, J. Houston, JPP, Levitre

By | at July 10, 2015 8:46 pm

Arbitrator Harold Henderson’s ruling to reduce Greg Hardy‘s suspension from 10 games to four contains little in the way of clear logic, opines Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. Instead of working off the old policy of a two-game ban for a domestic violence incident, or acknowledging that the new standard calls for a six-game suspension, Henderson did neither, per Florio, opting to seemingly create his own rule, simply stating that a ten games is “too much.” Had Henderson used the old statute as a basis for his decision, writes Florio, he would have had to explain how Hardy’s actions were twice as worse as those of Ray Rice, who was suspended two games after his domestic incident.

Here’s more from around the league…

  • Assessing the status of the four unsigned franchise players, Jason Cole of Bleacher Report (video link) ranks them (most likely to least likely) work out a long-term deal with their respective club: Justin Houston, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Jason Pierre-Paul. Cole gives JPP a zero percent chance of agreeing to an extension with the Giants given his injury concerns, but puts the chances of Houston reaching a deal with the Chiefs at 60%. Houston will discuss his contract with KC management this weekend.
  • The four franchise-tagged players are among the NFL players who could stage holdouts during training camp in the coming weeks, according to Jason Fitzgerald of the Sporting News, who looks at some other situations where a holdout might occur. Eric Weddle, Michael Bennett, and his brother Martellus Bennett could all stay away from training camp unless their contract situation is resolved.
  • Signed to a six-year. $46.8MM deal before the 2013 season, guard Andy Levitre has been a disappointment during his time with the Titans, but now that he feels completely healthy, he sees a turnaround on the horizon in 2015. “Knowing what I am capable of doing, and knowing I have done it in the past, I want to be able to get back to where I need to be to be successful,” Levitre told Jim Wyatt of the Tennessean. “And to have that personal accomplishment means more to me than anything, and I think that will show to the coaches and the guys upstairs.”
0 comments Dallas Cowboys Denver Broncos Kansas City Chiefs New York Giants Tennessee Titans

2015 Release Candidates: NFC North

By | at July 10, 2015 7:44 pm

Most clubs have fairly set rosters at this point, as OTA, minicamp, and preseason performances won’t do much to alter roster composition. The majority of key releases came in March, but there are still several scenarios where certain contributors could lose their roster spot in the coming months. For the most part, we’ll focus on situations where the cap savings would be in excess of $1MM.

Because free agency has already passed, financial ramifications won’t play a huge role in these decisions; there aren’t a ton of high-profile free agents on which to spend that saved money, so these calls will mostly be made based on performance. However, any cap space saved through these potential releases could be rolled over into 2016, so that’s something clubs have to consider.

We’ve already looked at the AFC East, NFC East, and AFC North, so let’s dive into the NFC North…

Chicago Bears:

  • Jermon Bushrod, T: There’s no disputing that Bushrod an improvement over what the Bears were running out at left tackle in the years preceding his arrival in the Windy City — but that doesn’t mean that he’s been worth the five-year, nearly $36MM contract he signed with Chicago prior to the 2013 season. He’s actually been well below-average, according to Pro Football Focus’ metrics (subscription required), which ranked Bushrod as the 55th- and 57th-best left tackle in the league in 2013 and 2014, respectively. $1MM of his $5MM base salary became fully guaranteed earlier this year, however, so if the Bears were going to cut him they already would’ve (and it’s not as as though there a litany of left tackle options lying around the free agent market, anyway). But given that we’ve passed the June 1 cutoff, Chicago could save $4.85MM by releasing the 30-year-old Bushrod now; if he falters again in ’15, I suspect the club might part ways with him next season (when they could save $4.3MM before June 1 and $6.5MM after said date). Prediction: not released.
  • Matt Slauson, G: The only other Bear who is even remotely a candidate for release is another offensive lineman, left guard Matt Slauson. The 29-year-old played in only five contests last year, missing a few weeks at the beginning of the season due to a high ankle sprain before being placed on injured reserve after tearing his pectoral in Week 8. Similar to their situation at left tacke, the Bears don’t have any viable replacements were they to release Slauson, as Michael Ola was thoroughly unimpressive while filling in on the interior last season, and free agent signee Vlad Ducasse has never lived up to his second-round billing. Additionally, Slauson was quite good in 2013 after coming over from the Jets, and just signed a four-year deal last January, so there’s no reason Chicago won’t give him a chance to get healthy and prove his worth. Prediction: not released.

Detroit Lions:

  • Ryan Broyles, WR: Broyles was only nine months removed from a torn ACL when he entered the league in 2012, and he suffered another ACL injury (opposite knee) during his rookie season. Midway through his sophomore season in 2013, he was dealt another blow as he ruptured his Achilles. Broyles was largely healthy during the 2014 campaign, but still didn’t play much — he’s totaled just 21 games during his three-year career. Thought to be an explosive slot weapon coming out of Oklahoma, it seems like injuries have sapped much of Broyles’ athleticism, and though the Lions would save less than $900K by cutting him, he seems like a long shot to earn a spot on Detroit’s roster, let alone make his first significant NFL contribution at age 27. Prediction: waived.
  • Jason Jones, DE: The 29-year-old Jones is entering the final season of a three-year deal, and is scheduled to count nearly $4MM against Detroit’s cap. His first season with the Lions — 2013 — was a wash, as he played in just three games before suffering a season-ending injury. Jones played in (and started) all 16 games last season, but wasn’t very effective, ranking as the just the 47th 4-3 defensive end among 59 qualifiers, according to PFF. Digging into the numbers a little deeper gives a better overall impression, as Jones ranked in the top half the league against the run and total pressures, but he finished only 36th in pass rush productivity. The Lions lost both Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley to free agency, so they need all the help they can get along the defensive line — it’s just not clear if Jones is all that helpful. In his early Lions 53-man roster projection, Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com noted that Detroit likes that fact that Jones can play both end and tackle, surmising that that versatility could keep him on the roster (for the record, Rothstein did list Jones among his projected final 53). For now, Jones is probably safe, but if a backup shows something in training camp, or a high-quality option can be found via the waiver wire, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Jones out of a job. Prediction: not released.
  • Stephen Tulloch, LB: Tulloch’s season was (somewhat embarrassingly) cut short when he tore his ACL while celebrating a sack during a Week 3 contest against the Packers. There a quite a few factors working against Tulloch’s return to Detroit: his recovery from his injury; his $5.8MM cap figure, $4.3MM of of which would be wiped out if he’s released; and the presence of fourth-year pro Tahir Whitehead, who filled in admirably at middle linebacker in Whitehead’s absence. However, Tulloch ranked as the second-best inside linebacker in the league as recently as 2013 (per PFF), and Tulloch indicated through an Instagram post earlier this year that he’d be back in Detroit for 2015. That post doesn’t mean his return is official, obviously, but it might indicate that Lions management told him he’d be retained. Prediction: not released.

Green Bay Packers:

  • Mike Neal, LB: As I wrote earlier this year in the Packers Offseason Outlook post, Neal’s production simply doesn’t match his production. Signed to a two-year, $8MM deal prior to last season, the 28-year-old Neal went on to rank as the worst 3-4 outside linebacker in the league according to PFF, finishing as the worst pass-rusher at his position by a considerable margin. In May, however, Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com noted that Neal had been paid a roster bonus — which Over the Cap pegs at $1.3MM — so if Green Bay had wanted to release Neal, they obviously wouldn’t have shelled out that cash. Prediction: not released.
  • Julius Peppers, LB: Peppers is only listed here due to the combination of his age (35) and the large bump in his cap figure from 2014 ($3.5MM) to 2015 ($12MM). Neither his ’15 nor ’16 base salaries are guaranteed, so the Packers could clear all but the remaining $5MM in bonus money left on his deal. But Peppers was simply too valuable during his first year in Green Bay to let go, although the Packers could approach him about a restructure. Prediction: not released.
  • Nick Perry, LB: Only three other 2012 first-round picks have accumulated fewer snaps than Perry during their first three seasons in the NFL: Dre Kirkpatrick, who was buried on the Bengals’ CB depth chart until the end of last season; David Wilson, who is now retired due to injuries; and A.J. Jenkins, perhaps the most obvious first-round bust from that ’12 draft. Perry doesn’t have much special teams value, either, although his ST snap percentage has risen from less than 4% his rookie year to 16.5% in 2014. The Packers already declined Perry’s 2016 option, and even with Clay Matthews moving to the inside, there’s no reason to pay Perry his full 2015 cap charge when the club could save nearly $1.5MM by cutting him. Between fourth-rounder Jake Ryan, and the several UDFAs Green Bay signed after the draft, the team should be able to rely on players making minimum salary to fill in its linebacking unit. Prediction: waived.
  • Andrew Quarless, TE: The Packers reportedly don’t plan to release Quarless in the wake of his recent arrest, and while that could obviously change, it’s much too soon (and the situation too bereft of facts) to render a prediction.

Minnesota Vikings:

  • Casey Matthews, LB: Matthews doesn’t fit our criteria of offering cap savings of $1MM+, but I included him here both because he played a semi-prominent role in Philadelphia last year after DeMeco Ryans suffered an injury, and because some expected him to possibly start for the Vikings following the departure of Jasper Brinkley. Minnesota selected UCLA linebacker Eric Kendricks in the second round of this year’s draft, however, and that combined with the presence of Audie Cole means that Matthews wouldn’t have a shot at much playing time. Prediction: released.
  • Brian Robison, DE: Robison has been the Vikings’ full-time starter at left end four four seasons, and 2014 was his first truly sub-par season, as he graded as the league’s No. 52 4-3 defensive end among 59 qualifiers per PFF. He’d been above average in the years prior, especially excelling at pass rushing. Robison is signed for three more years, and Minnesota would actually save a good deal of cap space ($4.65MM) by releasing him, but given that he was still productive just two seasons ago, I’d expect him to be retained, especially given that the Vikings don’t have much in the way of defensive end depth. Prediction: not released.
  • LB Chad Greenway accepted a pay cut earlier this offseason or he would have likely been released.
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Ravens Notes: Yanda, Osemele, Flacco, Tucker

By | at July 10, 2015 6:52 pm

Although the Ravens took care of one impending free agent contract yesterday — locking up punter Sam Koch to a five-year extension worth $18.75MM — the club’s roster still contains several key players who will head into the year on expiring contracts, writes Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun. I profiled the two most prominent FAs-to-be, guards Marshal Yanda and Kelechi Osemele, earlier this year, and Wilson adds that while no deal is imminent with either player, Osemele could end up being the odd man out given his injury history, including a significant back ailment suffered just last season.

Let’s take a look at some more notes out of Baltimore…

  • Kicker Justin Tucker is another candidate for a multi-year deal, according to Wilson, who writes that the former undrafted free agent could eventually become the highest-paid kicker in the league, garnering more than $9MM in guarantees. At the minimum, the Ravens would use the franchise tag on Tucker next season, but it sounds like the two sides would like to work to come to an agreement.
  • The Ravens are expected to attempt to restructure the contract of quarterback Joe Flacco between now and the start of the new league year in March 2016, writes Wilson within his story on Koch’s extension yesterday. The news is unsurprising, as Flacco’s 2016 cap number of $28.55MM is projected to be the second-highest in the league. Flacco obviously wouldn’t be sacrificing any money, but a simple restructure — converting a portion of his base salary into a signing bonus — should be able to give Baltimore some breathing room.
  • The primary motive in negotiating a long-term deal with Koch wasn’t to clear out cap space for 2015, per Wilson. I had included Koch among the AFC North candidates for release earlier this week, speculating that the Ravens might to like to clear out, or at least reduce, Koch’s 2015 cap charge of $3.1MM (although I ultimately predicted he would not be cut). However, Wilson reports that the extension was instead aimed at solidifying the contract status of a well-respected veteran, meaning the deal can be viewed more as a reward than a financial maneuver. (It should be noted, though, that Koch’s cap number for next year will decrease by $700K; Wilson has the entire breakdown of the deal here.)
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