2015 Release Candidates: AFC North
Most clubs have fairly set rosters at this point, as OTA, minicamp, and preseason performances won’t do much to alter roster composition. The majority of key releases came in March, but there are still several scenarios where certain contributors could lose their roster spot in the coming months. For the most part, we’ll focus on situations where the cap savings would be in excess of $1MM.
Because free agency has already passed, financial ramifications won’t play a huge role in these decisions; there aren’t a ton of high-profile free agents on which to spend that saved money, so these calls will mostly be made based on performance. However, any cap space saved through these potential releases could be rolled over into 2016, so that’s something clubs have to consider.
After looking at the AFC East and NFC East last week, let’s dive into the AFC North…
Baltimore Ravens:
- Arthur Brown, LB: A rare draft whiff by general manager Ozzie Newsome, Brown has failed to live up to his second-round status during his two pro seasons. After playing 436 snaps during his rookie year, Brown saw action on just 51 plays in 2014, all of which came on special teams. The 25-year-old Brown could act as valuable depth behind starters C.J. Mosley and Daryl Smith if he could put it all together, but it’s hard to predict future success for a player who wasn’t trusted to see the field for even a single defensive snap. Baltimore would save less than $800K by waiving Brown at this point, but I’m guessing it’s a move that they’ll give due consideration. Brown did reportedly draw trade interest last fall, so perhaps the Ravens will try to deal him first. Prediction: waived.
- Sam Koch, P: Koch has the 12th-highest 2015 cap charge on Baltimore’s roster, a financial oddity I would have thought rare around the league. However, six other clubs (Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers, Giants, Saints, and Buccaneers) also have a punter within their top dozen cap hits, meaning nearly a quarter of NFL clubs are paying punters quite well. Cutting Koch would leave just $600K in dead money on the Ravens’ ledger (against $2.5MM in savings), but given that Koch did lead the league in net punting average last season, I think Baltimore will keep him around rather than looking for a cheaper option. Prediction: not released.
- The Ravens traded DT Haloti Ngata and restructured CB Lardarius Webb, both of whom would have been candidates for release otherwise.
Cincinnati Bengals:
- Leon Hall, CB: Now on the wrong side of 30, Hall has torn each of his Achilles’ in the last four seasons, and (probably in large part due to those injuries) he’s not the same player he once was. That doesn’t mean he can’t still be effective — especially in the slot, where he’s expected to spend most of his time in 2015 — but it’s not clear that he’s worth his $9.6MM cap figure (second-highest on the Bengals roster). Cincinnati has not threatened Hall with release, or even asked him to take a paycut, despite the fact that his role as the club’s No. 1 corner has been usurped. I’d guess that 31 of 32 organizations would have at least asked Hall to restructure by now, but given that the Bengals haven’t, I expect Hall to stick around for 2015. Prediction: not released.
- Domata Peko, DT: Much that can be said about Hall can be said about Peko, in that most clubs would have cut ties long ago. The difference with Peko is that he never achieved the heights that Hall had, and his current level of play (second-worst 4-3 DT in the league in 2014, per Pro Football Focus; subscription required) is far worse than any lows Hall ever sunk to. PFF has graded Peko as a bottom-20 defensive tackle in six of the past seven seasons, but his snap count never decreases, always hovering around the 700 mark. The Bengals even signed Peko to an extension last March, but all of his guarantees have been paid out, meaning the club could release him and clear his entire $3.7MM cap figure. But there’s no reason to think Cincinnati will do so now, even if Peko does begin to lose playing time to reserve Brandon Thompson. Prediction: not released.
Cleveland Browns:
- Gary Barnidge/Jim Dray, TE: The Browns added ex-Cardinal Rob Housler during the offseason to replace Jordan Cameron as their receiving weapon at tight end, but the club might need to decide between Barnidge and Dray for its No. 2 role, especially if it decides to keep undrafted rookie free agent E.J. Bibbs — who has drawn rave reviews from coaches — on the final 53-man roster. Barnidge is cheaper and has been the better player as of late, meaning Cleveland could be forced to cut Dray, and save $1.6MM in the process. Prediction: Dray released.
- Ishmaa’ily Kitchen, DT: Kitchen signed his restricted free agent tender near the end of May, meaning he’s scheduled to earn $1.542MM during the upcoming season. That money isn’t guaranteed, however, and given that Kitchen is now somewhat buried on the Browns’ depth chart following the additions of Danny Shelton, Xavier Cooper, and Randy Starks, I wonder if the club might try to lower his salary. As Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap explains, once the RFA period has passed, the team — knowing the player has limited options — can use that leverage to reduce his salary, often offering a minimum salary and a few hundred thousand dollars in guarantees. I could see Cleveland using this strategy, but if Kitchen balks, he could just be cut. Prediction: released.
- Craig Robertson, LB: The 27-year-old Robertson is entering the final season of his rookie contract, and having shown excellent improvement over the past year — he posted a -15.0 PFF grade in 2013 but moved up to +2.2 in 2014 — it’s unlikely that he’ll be cut, especially given his pass coverage skills. But he did lose snaps to rookie Chris Kirksey last season, and the Browns could save more than $2.3MM by parting ways with him. Prediction: not released.
Pittsburgh Steelers:
- Cortez Allen, CB: After agreeing to four-year extension worth $26MM in September, Allen’s play became absolutely ghastly, and his snap counts gradually dwindled until he was benched mid-way through the season; he subsequently broke his thumb and was placed on injured reserve in early December. Allen is only 26 years old, is expected to regain his starting job in 2015, and was paid a $3MM roster bonus earlier this year — all of which means it’s highly unlikely that the Steelers sever ties. But the club could still save more than $5MM by doing so, and given Allen’s struggles, it’s probably a discussion management has had. Prediction: not released.
- Cam Thomas, DT: Thomas did nothing in his first season in Pittsburgh to justify his two-year, $4MM deal, grading as the league’s worst 3-4 defensive end, according to PFF. Steelers coaches obviously noticed his subpar production, as during the last five weeks of the season, Thomas played on just 57 of a possible 319 snaps — even for a reserve, 17% playing time is low. The only impediment to his release is Pittsburgh’s lack of depth along the defensive line, but the club simply can’t justify Thomas’ $2.5MM cap charge. I think they’ll cut him, saving $2MM of that total in the process. Prediction: released.
The Confusing Stance Of Michael Bennett
Ever since a rumor was floated in March claiming Seahawks defensive lineman Michael Bennett was seeking a trade to the Falcons, the 29-year-old’s displeasure with his current contract has been well-documented. After clarifying that he did not want to be dealt, Bennett allowed that he was angling for a new contract, and explained his reasoning:
“[I’m] somewhere near the top seven at my position, top eight at my position. Not a lot of guys play inside and out (meaning both tackle and end). Not a lot of guys do what I do. So I feel like I should be somewhere near there… I just want to be [paid] in the realm of the guys that play like me. There are only so many guys that do what I do, and I would love to be like somewhere in there where they are at.’’
That’s certainly sound logic. Bennett is one of the best 4-3 defensive ends in the league, and his contract does not match his production, as his $7.125MM annual salary places him just 13th at his position. There is no question that he’s underpaid. But that fact doesn’t help answer some key questions: Couldn’t this situation have been completely avoided? Why did Bennett accept this contract from Seattle in the first place?
Let’s go back to the free agent period of 2014. Bennett had just finished his first season in Seattle, during which he earned just $4.8MM while grading out as the league’s fifth-best 4-3 defensive end, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He was a key contributor on Seattle’s Super Bowl-winning defense, lining up at several different spots along the defensive line, and was ranked third by PFF’s pass rush productivity metric. After being forced to settle for a one-year deal the year prior, Bennett was set up to break the bank.
Leading up to the opening of free agency, pundits believed that Bennett would be line for a deal that paid him, at the very minimum, $8MM per season, and most figured he would easily top that figure. In naming Bennett the No. 1 free agent of 2014, PFR’s Luke Adams estimated that, in the right situation, Bennett could secure $9-10MM annually.
Bennett indicated that he would not be open to giving the Seahawks a hometown discount, and there wasn’t any reason he should’ve, as the list of suitors who were reportedly interested in his services was lengthy. The Raiders, Jaguars, Bears, and 49ers were among the clubs who expressed some level of interest in signing Bennett, and a report on March 9 even listed Chicago as the favorites to land Bennett.
But just one day later, on March 10, Bennett re-signed with Seattle without ever officially reaching free agency. The first reports to roll on regarding Bennett’s contract details said he would earn between $8-8.5MM per season, and in our post on the transaction, Luke wrote that Bennett probably could have gotten more than that on the open market. But when the actual specifics came in less than an hour later, we learned that Bennett would earn just slightly more than $7MM a year.
The total seemed substantially low from the outset, and Bennett claimed he turned down larger offers from two clubs, one of whom was the Bears — Bennett said Chicago not only offered him more money, but “way more money.” In the days to come, the Bears found a consolation prize in Jared Allen, who not only hadn’t posted the same level of recent production that Bennett had, but was four years his senior. Despite those detriments, Allen was able to secure a four-year, $32MM deal, averaging nearly $1MM more per season than Bennett.
Of course, that deal was signed after Bennett had already re-upped with Seattle, but that doesn’t mean there weren’t precedents available. Everson Griffen, who had only one season of elite production, re-signed with the Vikings the day before Bennett reached his agreement. Griffen’s five-year deal was scheduled to pay him $42.5MM, almost $1.5MM more per year than Bennett. Griffen was two years younger than Bennett, but the production gap between the two should have made up that difference.
“People assume when you ask for a little more money, they assume that you want to be traded or something like that,” Bennett said last month. “But that’s not what I’m trying to go for.” The Seahawks have a policy of not discussing contracts with players who have more than one year left on their deal, a policy that Bennett is surely abreast of. Now that he is threatening to hold out, it’s fair to wonder exactly what Bennett expects the outcome of this situation to be. As PFR’s Rory Parks wrote in that linked post, perhaps Seattle would be willing to rework some portion of Bennett’s deal as they did for Marshawn Lynch last year — but even Lynch did not get a full restructure.
But the point that I presented at the outset stands: Bennett is absolutely correct that he is underpaid. He should be making at least $1MM more per season, and even $2MM or $3MM more per year wouldn’t be out of the question. But given that he signed the deal just last year, never allowed himself to officially hit free agency, and reportedly turned down money from several clubs, Bennett really only has himself to blame.
Extra Points: R. Wilson, Brady, Manziel, Wake
The Seahawks seem to have two options to retain quarterback Russell Wilson: work out an extension (negotiations of which don’t seem to be going well), or use one of the franchise tags (either exclusive or non-exclusive). But could a third scenario be on the table? Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk outlines a situation which would involve Seattle ultimately trading Wilson — after placing the exclusive tag on him next March — for a bevy of draft picks and/or another starting quarterback. It’s probably an unlikely sequence of events, but it’s at least an option for the Seahawks if talks on a long-term deal continue to stall.
Here’s more from around the league:
- More from Florio, who proposes a solution to the Tom Brady appeal situation — converting the Patriots quarterback’s four-game suspension into a four-game fine. The NFL, writes Florio, would still be able to claim that it’s severely punishing Brady, as he’d be losing about $1.88MM. And Brady, for his part, would be able to say that he accepted the fine because it meant he could play immediately. There are some problems with the plan, as Florio points out — the league would be accused of not being tough enough on cheating, Brady would be appear to be admitting guilt — but it’s not completely far-fetched.
- Bengals defensive coordinator Paul Guenther has some advice for height-challenged Browns QB Johnny Manziel: act like Drew Brees. That’s easier said than done, of course, but Guenther was referring to Brees’ ability to move ability to operate from within the pocket despite also being on the shorter side for a quarterback. Speaking to Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com, Guenther — whose Bengals defense stymied Manziel in his first start — says the Texas A&M product has the ability to be a solid quarterback in the NFL, especially in the right system.
- Cameron Wake spent a chunk of time in the Canadian Football League before finding success with the Dolphins, and he endorses the league as a stepping stone of sorts for younger players. “I think it’s a good move for anybody if you get an opportunity. I loved it in my time there,” Wake told James Walker of ESPN.com. “It was an opportunity to get out there and play. If you have the desire to get back [to the NFL], teams kind of grab those guys. To get out there and play the game just for the love of the game was a great opportunity for me.”
Latest On NFL’s Los Angeles Relocation
In yesterday’s San Diego Union-Tribune, the newspaper’s editorial board added a bit of intrigue to the NFL’s plans for relocating a team to Los Angeles. Referencing an owner’s meeting scheduled for August, the board writes speculation has arisen that the owners may vote the entire process back by one year, allowing the situations in San Diego, St. Louis, and Oakland to “percolate.”
For his part, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk isn’t entirely buying said speculation, going as far as to opine that the Union-Tribune, which has a vested interest in seeing San Diego retain an NFL team, could have simply “conjured” the news. Either way, such a delay in the process would have negative consequences for San Diego, writes Florio. A scenario could exist where the Raiders and Rams both move to L.A. and the Chargers stay in San Diego; such moves would obviously be a negative for the Chargers, as they’d have to compete financially with two teams in their area.
Albert Breer of NFL.com (Twitter link) has heard rumors of a different scenario, one where the Rams move to Los Angeles for the 2016 season, while the second spot in Inglewood remains open (for how long is not known) so that the Chargers and Raiders maintain leverage. In a second tweet, Breer says that situation could get more complicated if the city of St. Louis is able to come up with a suitable financing plan for a new stadium.
We heard on Friday that the league is exploring temporary venues in L.A. in the event that a club moves to Southern California for the 2016 season.
NFC North Notes: Levy, Lions, Waynes, Vikings
Lions linebacker DeAndre Levy is set to become a free agent at season’s end, leading Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press to wonder what an extension between Detroit and the 2014 second-team All Pro might look like. As of April, the two parties hadn’t even begun a conversation about a long-term deal, and Birkett thinks the club might be waiting for fellow OLB Lavonte David to work out an extension with the Buccaneers, and therefore set some sort of baseline for talks.
K.J. Wright is currently the highest earner among 4-3 outside linebackers, as he’ll make $6.75MM under the terms of his December extension. I think David should be able to top that figure, so Detroit (and Levy’s representatives) would need to decide if David’s potential AAV is a ceiling or a floor for Levy. The 28-year-old Levy graded as the third-best 4-3 OLB in the league last season, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), but technically was the best off-the-ball linebacker, as the two players ranked ahead of him — Khalil Mack and Von Miller — aren’t typical 4-3 outside ‘backers.
Let’s look at some more notes from the NFC North, including more from Birkett on the Lions:
- If the Lions can’t work out an agreement with Levy, the franchise tag would not be an option, per Birkett (via Twitter). It makes sense, as the linebacker franchise figure — inflated by edge-rushing LBs — is more than $13MM for this season. Levy isn’t worth that amount, so knocking out an extension is probably the only way for Detroit to retain him.
- After making a series of transactions last week, the Lions‘ roster count now sits at 89, so they have one spot to add a player. Responding to a Twitter question, Birkett guesses that Detroit will use the vacancy to add either an offensive or defensive lineman.
- Vikings first-round cornerback Trae Waynes is finding that the adjustment from college to the NFL isn’t so easy, as Josh Katzenstein of the Detroit News writes. “It’s steep,” Waynes said of the learning curve. “It’s like a mountain, but luckily we have guys on the team and the coaching staff that are willing to help you out through that process.” Waynes also divulged that he’s been handling slot duties, as Xavier Rhodes and Terence Newman have been playing on the outside during practice sessions.
2015 Release Candidates: NFC East
Most clubs have fairly set rosters at this point, as OTA, minicamp, and preseason performances won’t do much to alter roster composition. The majority of key releases came in March, but there are still several scenarios where certain contributors could lose their roster spot in the coming months. For the most part, we’ll focus on situations where the cap savings would be in excess of $1MM.
Because free agency has already passed, financial ramifications won’t play a huge role in these decisions; there aren’t a ton of high-profile free agents on which to spend that saved money, so these calls will mostly be made based on performance. However, any cap space saved through these potential releases could be rolled over into 2016, so that’s something clubs have to consider.
After looking at the AFC East yesterday, let’s dive into the NFC East…
Dallas Cowboys:
- Mackenzy Bernadeau, G: The 29-year-old Bernadeau renegotiated his contract last spring, accepting a $2.9MM pay cut in the process. After Dallas selected Zack Martin in last year’s draft, Bernadeau went on to act in a reserve role, and saw only 75 snaps. Now that undrafted free agent La’El Collins is penciled in as the starting left guard, incumbent Ronald Leary will be demoted to act as the top reserve interior lineman, further limiting Bernadeau’s role. The Cowboys could save $1.5MM by releasing him, but I think they’ll keep him around for depth purposes. Prediction: not released.
- Brandon Carr, CB: It’s been a strange offseason for the Cowboys and Carr, as he indicated in March that he would not accept a pay cut, a stance that Dallas has seemingly accepted. However, owner Jerry Jones has continued to say that the club wants to lower Carr’s cap number (presumably through an extension), but given Carr’s subpar play, I’m not sure tacking on extra years to his deal would be wise. The Cowboys have decent cornerback depth after drafting Byron Jones in the first round, but Jerry Jones has been adamant that the team won’t release Carr. Prediction: not released.
New York Giants:
- Jameel McClain, LB: Entering the final season of a two-year deal, McClain could be on the chopping block due to both his salary and his performance. The 29-year-old actually played the second-most snaps among Giants defenders, but graded in the bottom 10 among inside linebackers league-wide, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Additionally, he’s scheduled to count for $3.4MM on New York’s cap in 2015; the club could clear all but $300K of that total by releasing him. The Giants are near the bottom of the NFL in terms of cap space, and they might want a little extra room to make moves throughout the season, so creating a little space here and there through moves like cutting McClain could be in the making. Prediction: released.
- Linebacker Jon Beason and defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins each agreed to contract restructures both involved straight pay cuts) earlier this year, or else they likely would have been released.
Philadelphia Eagles:
- Riley Cooper, WR: The Eagles don’t have a ton of obvious cut candidates, and Cooper is the only veteran whose roster spot might come into question. (I thought about adding fellow pass-catcher Miles Austin here, but the club handed him $1MM in guarantees, so he’s probably a good bet to make the final 53.) Cooper took a big step back from his excellent 2014 season, as his yards per reception dropped from 17.8 to 10.5. He doesn’t figure to be a big part of Philadelphia’s offense, but given that the team would incur $3.8MM in dead money (as opposed to just $1MM in savings) by releasing him, Cooper will probably stick around for one more season. Prediction: not released.
Washington:
- DeAngelo Hall: Hall agreed to tweak his contact earlier this year, eliminating the $1MM in salary guarantees he was originally due. He can still earn the same $4MM base salary that he was originally due, but Washington is now off the hook if they decide Hall isn’t not fully recovered from two Achilles tears. Washington has decent corner depth following the signing of Chris Cullier, so Hall isn’t necessarily needed. But the club would save only $2.375MM while incurring $2.438MM in dead money by cutting Hall. Prediction: not released.
- Pierre Garcon, WR: Garcon’s rate stats stayed similar from 2013 to 2014, but his counting stats took a nosedive following the addition of DeSean Jackson. Still, he’s probably not in any real danger of being released — head coach Jay Gruden has been adamant that Garcon is in the club’s plans, and as of February the team hadn’t reached out to his representatives about restructuring his contract. Washington could save $7.5MM by releasing Garcon, however, so I’m guessing it’s a move that has at least been discussed internally. Prediction: not released.
- Kedric Golston, DE: The 32-year-old Golston didn’t play much last season (182 snaps), but still managed to rack up poor -14.3 grade from PFF. The addition of Ricky Jean-Francois means that Golston will see even less time in 2015, and there’s really no reason for the club to pay his $1MM base salary; Washington can save $1.075MM by cutting him. Prediction: released.
PFR Originals: 6/21/15 – 6/28/15
The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past seven days:
- The period between minicamp and training camp is usually very quiet, but in today’s NFL, there truly is no offseason. With that in mind, Luke Adams went over some storylines to keep in mind before training camp begins. Among them: Greg Hardy and Tom Brady‘s appeal decisions; the July 15 deadline for franchise-tagged players to sign long-term deals; and the three remaining unsigned draft picks.
- Most of the high-profile free agents came off the board in March, but there are still some interesting players left unsigned, including the recently-released Evan Mathis, whom I ranked as the No. 1 available free agent. Jake Long, Jermaine Gresham, James Jones, and others also make the list.
- Luke looked at the largest 2015 cap hits by position last week, and in the same vein, I examined the largest 2015 cap charges by position group among both offensive and defensive positions.
- Also on the topic of salary cap figures, Luke began delving into the numbers division-by-division, going over the largest 2015 cap numbers for the NFC East and the AFC East.
- Bills defensive tackle Marcell Dareus will be suspended for the first game of the 2015 season, but he’s still an excellent candidate for an extension. Luke fully examined the possibility, and used Buccaneers defensive tackle Gerald McCoy‘s contract as a comparison for Dareus.
- A total of 30 restricted free agents will play out the 2015 season under one-year deals, and Luke sorted them into buckets, separating between those who signed second-round tenders and those who signed original round/right of first refusal tenders.
- There will surely be some veteran players released between now and the beginning and the start of the season, and I began examining those candidates for release, starting with the AFC East clubs.
- We continued our new Community Tailgate series, posting topics of note and opening up the floor for discussion. The subjects covered by Zach Links, Luke, and Sam Robinson:
- The best remaining free agent outside of Evan Mathis (link)
- The Jets quarterback situation (link)
- Russell Wilson‘s contract (link)
- The Peyton Manning trade rumors (link)
- The Texans quarterback competition (link)
Week In Review: 6/21/15 – 6/28/15
The headlines from the past week at PFR:
Key News:
- Patriots quarterback Tom Brady‘s appeal hearing occurred in New York on Tuesday.
- The Broncos denied having discussed the possibility of trading quarterback Peyton Manning to the Texans.
- The NFL is exploring temporary stadium venues in Los Angeles.
Contracts:
- Receiver Dez Bryant‘s representatives met with the Cowboys on Friday to restart talks on a long-term deal.
- A funding rule that requires future salary guarantees to be placed into an escrow account could be delaying negotiations between the Seahawks and quarterback Russell Wilson.
- Seahawks defensive lineman Michael Bennett is considering holding out as he angles for a new contract.
Signed:
- Eagles – G John Moffitt (link)
Waivers:
- Browns – claimed WR Terrelle Pryor from the Bengals (link)
Suspended:
- RB Ahmad Bradshaw (one game)
Injured:
2015 Release Candidates: AFC East
Most clubs have fairly set rosters at this point, as OTA, minicamp, and preseason performances won’t do much to alter roster composition. The majority of key releases came in March, but there are still several scenarios where certain contributors could lose their roster spot in the coming months. For the most part, we’ll focus on situations where the cap savings would be in excess of $1MM.
Because free agency has already passed, financial ramifications won’t play a huge role in these decisions; there aren’t a ton of high-profile free agents on which to spend that saved money, so these calls will mostly be made based on performance. However, any cap space saved through these potential releases could be rolled over into 2016, so that’s something clubs have to consider.
Buffalo Bills:
- Matt Cassel, QB: Just weeks after acquiring Cassel from the Vikings, a report indicated that Buffalo had interest in extending the veteran quarterback, if only for the purpose of making his 2015 cap charge more palatable. But Cassel’s performance during recent OTAs has some wondering if he’ll even survive final roster cuts. The Bills do have two younger QB options in EJ Manuel and Tyrod Taylor, but neither has ever had any sustained success in the NFL. Buffalo could clear nearly $5MM by releasing Cassel. Prediction: not released.
- Bryce Brown/Anthony Dixon/Fred Jackson, RB: With LeSean McCoy and rookie Karlos Williams virtual locks for Buffalo’s 53, one of the aforementioned running backs will probably be cut before the seasons starts. Bills GM Doug Whaley has been adamant that Jackson won’t be released, and Dixon is a key special teams contributor. Brown has the lowest cap charge (by far), but he’s probably the worst fit given the team’s current makeup. Prediction: Brown released.
- Manny Lawson, LB: Lawson had a poor season in 2015, grading as the second-worst defender on the Buffalo roster, accordin to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). But with the Bills switching back to a 3-4 defense, Lawson could have a better shot to stick on the roster, as he performed capably under former DC Mike Pettine‘s 34 look. Plus, the club would incur $750K in dead money in each of the next two seasons by releasing Lawson, as opposed to a 2015 cap hit of $3.1MM, so the savings wouldn’t be overly consequential. Prediction: not released.
- Chris Williams, G: After signing a four-year deal last March, the 29-year-old Williams made just three starts for Buffalo before being placed on injured reserve with a back injury. He’s still recovering from said injury, and didn’t participate in OTAs. The former first-round pick has never lived up to his draft status, and now that the Bills have added Richie Incognito (via free agency) and John Miller (via the draft), the club could save nearly $2.5MM by cutting him. Prediction: released.
Miami Dolphins:
- Dion Jordan, DE: There’s no financial reason for the Dolphins to release Jordan — given that he’s suspended for the entire 2015 season, he won’t count against Miami’s books. But given the former third overall pick’s repeated off-the-field troubles, Miami might just want to rid themselves of Jordan altogether. They wouldn’t incur any dead money by doing so, as Jordan’s suspension voided his remaining guarantees. Prediction: released.
- Kelvin Sheppard, LB: Sheppard wasn’t a big part of Miami’s defense last season, seeing time on just 121 snaps. He’s currently set to act as Koa Misi‘s backup at middle linebacker, but his cap hit is $2MM; the club could save $1.5MM of that by releasing him. Perhaps if undrafted free agents Mike Hull and Zach Vigil impress during training camp, Sheppard’s role could be in jeopardy, but for now, he’s probably safe. Prediction: not released.
New England Patriots:
- Had both receiver Danny Amendola (link) and linebacker Jerod Mayo (link) not restructured their respective contracts in March, they would have likely been released. As such, the Patriots don’t have any other high-profile release candidates.
New York Jets:
- Calvin Pace, LB: Pace played the fourth-most snaps among Jets defenders in 2015, but he wasn’t overly effective, grading as the eighth-worst 3-4 OLB among 46 qualifiers, per PFF. New York would only keep $125K in dead money on their books by releasing the 34-year-old, as opposed to a $2.25MM cap hit by keeping him. Perhaps if the Jets like what they see from third-round rookie Lorenzo Mauldin, Pace’s role could be in jeopardy, but he’s probably safe. Prediction: not released.
NFC Notes: Gurley, Eli, Lions, Cowboys
Though most first-round picks sign deals containing full guarantees, we learned last week that Rams rookie running back Todd Gurley will only see the first two years of his contract fully guaranteed due to his knee injury, which is considered a non-football injury because it didn’t occur in the NFL. But an NFLPA source tells Ben Volin of the Boston Globe that despite the optics, this scenario is actually a win for Gurley, not the club.
“No player in the league, from [Peyton] Manning to Jadeveon Clowney] to Jameis Winston, has protection against getting cut [and not paid/and guarantees not honored] due to this type of situation,” the source told Volin. “The fact that Gurley’s agent got him two years protected for a non-football injury is better than every other player in the first round, and the league in general.”
More from the NFC:
- Opining at a truly elite quarterback has never actually hit the open market since the inception of free agency, agent Tom Condon tells Ralph Vacchiano of the New York Daily News that he’s confident his client Eli Manning will eventually work out an extension with the Giants. Manning will earn $17MM in base salary in 2015, the final year of his deal, and while New York could opt to use the franchise tag on him (at a cost of more than $20MM), but Condon seems sure that an agreement can be reached.
- Responding to reader’s question in this week’s mailbag, Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com writes that the Lions could be on the lookout for a blocking tight end as the regular season approaches. As the questioner points out, most starter Eric Ebron‘s backups are also pass-catching types, so the club want a replacement for Kellen Davis, who played the inline role in 2015. There will be free agent options as roster cutdowns occur (as Rothstein notes), but the Lions could take a look at ex-Bengal Jermaine Gresham, who I recently ranked as the third-best FA left on the market.
- News of the weird: the Cowboys, Giants, and Patriots will be contacted by the FAA in relation to their use of drones at practices, according to Bloomberg Business. The FAA does allow for the private use of such technology, but the user must agree to certain safety stipulations. None of the clubs had requested such clearance, per the report.