Free Agent Market For Tight Ends
Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to tight ends. Let’s dive in….
Top unrestricted FAs:
- Jordan Cameron (Browns)
- Charles Clay (Dolphins)
- Owen Daniels (Ravens)
- Jermaine Gresham (Bengals)
- Niles Paul (Washington)
- Julius Thomas (Broncos)
Coming into the 2014 season, Cameron and Clay looked like potential top-10 tight ends in the NFL, but both players took a step back over the last few months. Cameron’s drop-off was particularly precipitous, due in part to concussion problems — the Browns tight end caught just 24 passes after racking up 80 receptions in 2013. Still, both players have proven they’re capable of being reliable pass-catchers, so I expect we’ll see them draw plenty of interest from teams that can’t afford Thomas.
Thomas, of course, is the crown jewel of this year’s free agent class, and while he’d be a lock to be franchised by many teams, the Broncos may not have the flexibility to make such a move, since they’ll likely to have to use that tag on Demaryius Thomas. Battling injuries himself down the stretch, the Denver tight end might have seen his stock dip a little after coming out of the gates on fire in 2014, but he should still easily land the biggest contract this winter of any player at the position — a top-five TE salary is definitely within reach.
As for Gresham and Paul, their career arcs look quite different thus far, though they find themselves in similar situations this offseason. Gresham has always put up solid receiving numbers for the Bengals, but has never fully fit in Cincinnati, especially with the team looking to give Tyler Eifert a larger role in the offense. Paul, meanwhile, was nonexistent in Washington’s passing game until 2014, when he broke out with 39 catches and 507 yards. With Jordan Reed still under contract in D.C., Paul may be the odd man out.
Other unrestricted options:
- David Ausberry (Raiders)
- Chase Coffman (Titans)
- Fred Davis (N/A)
- Kellen Davis (Lions)
- Ed Dickson (Panthers)
- Daniel Fells (Giants)
- Jermichael Finley (N/A)
- Richard Gordon (Chiefs)
- Virgil Green (Bengals)
- Rob Housler (Cardinals)
- Lance Kendricks (Rams)
- Anthony McCoy (Seahawks)
- Zach Miller (Bears)
- Tony Moeaki (Seahawks)
- Matthew Mulligan (Titans)
- Michael Palmer (Steelers)
- Bear Pascoe (Falcons)
- Dante Rosario (Bears)
- Alex Smith (Bengals)
- Lee Smith (Bills)
- Matt Spaeth (Steelers)
- Luke Stocker (Buccaneers)
- Jacob Tamme (Broncos)
Clubs looking for a pass catcher at tight end should focus primarily on those players in the first group, because there aren’t many here that could be relied upon for consistent production. Still, TE is a position at which pass-catching isn’t necessarily the be-all, end-all to being an effective player, and several of the guys in this group can contribute positive value even without running routes.
According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Fells, Green, Pascoe, and Spaeth all graded among the league’s best run blockers at the position. In fact, buoyed primarily by their strong run-blocking performances, Fells, Green, and Spaeth all ranked among PFF’s top 20 tight ends, placing well ahead of notable receiving TEs such as Heath Miller, Antonio Gates, and Coby Fleener. A club may not want to head into the 2014 season with Fells atop its depth chart at the position, but he’s certainly a respectable No. 2 option.
2015 may also be the last chance for Finley to make a comeback — having missed the better part of the last two seasons due to neck issues, the former Packers tight end may simply decide to call it a career and try to collect on his insurance policy. However, if he’s cleared by doctors to return to the field, I’d expect him to try to catch on with another team this year, and if he can prove he’s healthy, his upside should intrigue suitors.
Restricted FAs:
- Garrett Celek (49ers)
- Cory Harkey (Rams)
- Fendi Onobun (Jaguars)
Considering these three players have combined for 32 career receptions, I don’t expect the bidding on their services to be all that competitive this offseason. It would be a surprise if any of them even received a restricted free agent tender from their current clubs, though they could still return to those teams at a lesser salary.
Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:
Poll: Best Free Agent Quarterback?
As Andrew Brandt of The MMQB.com pointed out yesterday (via Twitter), it may sometimes seem as if teams are overpaying to keep their own quarterbacks, but that’s due in large part to the fact that capable starting QBs rarely reach free agency. This year’s class of free agents is more proof of that.
When I examined 2015’s free agent market for quarterbacks on Monday, I identified Mark Sanchez, Brian Hoyer, Michael Vick, and Jake Locker as a few of the top players available, with longtime backups like Matt Moore and Ryan Mallett also in the mix. While most of those guys may be better suited as No. 2 options, I expect nearly all of them will get a chance to compete for a starting role in 2015, given how many QB-needy teams are out there.
Later in the week, Josh McCown joined this year’s group of FA quarterbacks, having been released by the Buccaneers. Last winter, McCown received the biggest contract for a free agent QB changing teams, signing a two-year, $10MM deal with Tampa Bay. This time around, he once again looks like one of the top options available, despite a disappointing 2014 campaign. Since he was cut early, McCown will also get a chance to sign anywhere before other free-agents-to-be are eligible to speak to other teams.
But if you were running a team and wanted to add the best veteran quarterback on the market, would you make a move for McCown, or would you want to wait for someone else? Who is the top prospective free agent signal-caller for 2015?
NFC Notes: AP, Bynes, McCown, 49ers, Eagles
The Vikings announced today that they’ve promoted Kevin Warren to chiefs operating officer of the franchise, and Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk wondered this morning if that could mean the end of Adrian Peterson‘s time in Minnesota. After all, when Peterson said during the 2014 season that someone in the organization was working against him, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that the running back was referring to Warren.
However, on a conference call this afternoon, Warren told reporters, including Ben Goessling of ESPN.com (all Twitter links), that he’d welcome back Peterson with open arms. Although Warren didn’t deny Schefter’s report, he did say, “I can tell you my feelings about Adrian are very positive. I hope he finishes his career here in Minnesota.”
As Goessling observes in his latest ESPN.com article on Peterson, the tone from the Vikings’ front office when discussing the running back seems to have shifted. Whether that signals an increased willingness from the Vikings to bring back the former MVP, or perhaps a desire to improve their trade leverage, things should get interesting as his reinstatement nears, writes Goessling.
Here’s more from across the NFC:
- Linebacker Josh Bynes, who had been eligible for restricted free agency, won’t receive a contract tender from the Lions, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press. Nonetheless, the Lions have informed Bynes that they’d still like to re-sign him, presumably at a rate closer to the minimum salary. The 25-year-old will have a chance to speak to other suitors next month.
- There’s no truth to rumors that Josh McCown could’ve remained with the Buccaneers if he had been willing to accept a pay cut, according to the quarterback (link via Roy Cummings of the Tampa Tribune). McCown also indicated that at least a half-dozen teams have already expressed interest in signing him (Twitter link via Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times).
- The 49ers have key free agents in Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, and Mike Iupati, but the franchise tag isn’t a viable option to keep any of those three players, writes Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com. I reached the same conclusion last weekend when I looked at the NFC West’s franchise tag candidates.
- Examining the inside linebacker position for the Eagles, Sheil Kapadia of PhillyMag.com says he thinks the team should try to extend Mychal Kendricks this offseason. Kapadia also admits he has “no clue” which direction the Eagles will go with DeMeco Ryans, who is generally productive when healthy, but has a pricey cap hit ($6.9MM) that includes no guaranteed money.
Brandon Graham Seeking $20MM Guarantee?
Eagles edge defender Brandon Graham, who is eligible for free agency next month, will be seeking a four-year deal in the neighborhood of $30MM, with $20MM in guaranteed money, reports Geoff Mosher of CSNPhilly.com. Mosher tucks away this nugget in the middle of a larger look at the team’s key free agents and doesn’t cite a specific source, but states it definitively enough that it certainly appears to be more than just idle speculation.
On the surface, that might seem like an unrealistic asking price for Graham, who has been a backup for the Eagles for nearly his entire rookie contract. However, even though the former first-round pick hasn’t put up huge traditional stats, Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required) have loved his production. In 2014, Graham graded as the league’s third-best 3-4 outside linebacker, despite appearing in just 524 defensive snaps; in 2013, he saw even less playing time (331 snaps), but still ranked 15th among 42 qualified players at his position. Graham had his best season in 2012, per PFF, placing second among 4-3 defensive ends with a +30.1 grade in only 435 snaps.
Despite potentially being an underrated asset, landing a contract that features $20MM in guaranteed money still looks a little too ambitious for Graham. By comparison, only one player in last year’s free agent class (Branden Albert) signed a deal that included $20MM in fully guaranteed money. Perhaps Graham could achieve that goal of a $20MM guarantee if we also take into account salary guaranteed for injury only, but I don’t expect him to score a massive payday. This is the time of year when players’ asking prices often greatly exceed the actual prices on which they’ll eventually settle.
Still, as Mosher notes, Graham could be a player whose value will be “discovered” during next week’s scouting combine in Indianapolis, as team executives and agents come together for the first time this offseason. It’ll be interesting to see whether Graham draws significant interest from teams that view him as an every-down player, or if other clubs will also view him as a pass-rushing specialist, like the Eagles did — that would limit his overall stock. Considering he did his best work as a 4-3 defensive end before Philadelphia changed schemes a couple years ago, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the 26-year-old pursued primarily by teams running a 4-3 defense.
AFC North Links: Steelers, Bengals, Ravens
The NFL has announced the introduction of a new veteran combine this year, set for March 22 in Phoenix. The event, scheduled for nearly two weeks after the start of 2015’s free agent period, will allow about 100 veteran free agents to audition for interested teams. However, Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert doesn’t have much interest in the combine as an evaluation tool, as Mark Kaboly of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review details.
“Most of these guys that go to the veteran combine have been in at camp,” Colbert said. “They’ve been veterans. They’ve been practice squad players or they’ve been active players. So what they do in a workout I’m not really interested in. I just want to see what they did when they did have their chance to be NFL players.”
As we wait to see whether the event will pique the interest of other GMs and teams around the NFL, let’s check in on a few notes from around the AFC North….
- The Bengals may have a fairly uneventful offseason ahead of them, according to Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com, who notes that this should be a good time for the team to try to work out a contract with star receiver A.J. Green.
- One reason we shouldn’t expect much action from the Bengals this offseason is that the club typically doesn’t pursue free agents at the top of the market, and Paul Dehner Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer explains why.
- While the cornerback position could be a priority for the Ravens this offseason, the club should also make sure to address the safety spot, since only Matt Elam and 2014 third-rounder Terrence Brooks have contracts for next season at the moment, says Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun.
- Restricted free-agent-to-be Will Hill will likely return to the Ravens, and he’s out there recruiting for other potential free agent safeties to join him in Baltimore. As Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com writes, Hill is campaigning for his former Giants teammate Antrel Rolle to sign with the Ravens.
Jets, Raiders Expected To Target Top WRs
As I noted this morning when I examined the free agent market for wide receivers, the players at the very top of this year’s board likely won’t be available when free agency begins on March 10. Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas are both strong candidates for the franchise tag, and Jeremy Maclin and Randall Cobb could get tagged as well, if they don’t work out long-term extensions with their current teams.
However, that doesn’t mean that this year’s receiver market will be weak. Even without those four wideouts on the board, players like Torrey Smith, Michael Crabtree, Cecil Shorts, and Kenny Britt may be available, and Jason Cole of Bleacher Report (video link) suggests that a handful of players currently under contract could join them. Cole identifies Percy Harvin (Jets), Mike Wallace (Dolphins), Vincent Jackson (Buccaneers), and Brandon Marshall (Bears) as a few veteran receivers who could hit the open market if they decline to take pay cuts or rework their contracts.
While the top-tier free agent receivers figure to draw interest from around the NFL, Cole suggests that the Jets and Raiders will be the most aggressive teams in trying to secure one of those top options. As Over The Cap’s data shows, Oakland and New York should both rank among the top five clubs in terms of available cap room this offseason, with approximately $50MM in flexibility.
That cap space will increase for the Jets if they release Harvin, and such a move would probably have them in the market for two new receivers, either in free agency or the draft. The Raiders, meanwhile, have Denarius Moore, Vincent Brown, Rod Streater, and Andre Holmes all eligible for either unrestricted or restricted free agency, and will be looking for an impact wideout to complement James Jones in order to help advance Derek Carr‘s development.
Although it will become irrelevant if the Broncos use their franchise tag on Thomas, it’s worth noting that Decker has been pushing hard to try to convince his former teammate to join him in New York.
Packers Announce Coaching Changes
12:05pm: McCarthy confirmed at his press conference that Clements will call the offensive plays for the Packers in 2015, tweets Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
11:58am: The Packers have confirmed a handful of previously reported coaching changes, announcing today in a press release that the team has made changes on both sides of the ball, and named a pair of new special teams assistants as well. The new titles on Mike McCarthy‘s staff are as follows:
- Tom Clements: Associate head coach/offense
- Edgar Bennett: Offensive coordinator
- Alex Van Pelt: Quarterbacks and wide receivers coach
- Mike Solari: Assistant offensive line coach
- Jerry Montgomery: Defensive front assistant
- Ron Zook: Special teams coordinator
- Jason Simmons: Assistant special teams coach
While the press release doesn’t mention anything about the Packers’ offensive play calls, McCarthy is expected to hand over the reins on play-calling to Clements as part of his promotion. Clements had previously been Green Bay’s offensive coordinator, while McCarthy called the plays, and now it appears that Bennett will be the OC while Clements calls plays.
McCarthy will speak to local reporters at the top of the hour to confirm the changes.
East Notes: Dolphins, Wallace, Maclin, Bills
A possible contract extension for starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill will be a top priority for the Dolphins this offseason, but the club will also need to secure a backup, writes Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald. In Salguero’s view, considering Tannehill has been sacked more than any other QB in the league over the last two seasons, Miami will target a veteran backup who could potentially salvage the season if he were forced into action. Given his history with the team, free-agent-to-be Matt Moore may be the Dolphins’ best bet, but there should be no shortage of veteran alternatives on the market.
Here’s more from around the NFL’s two East divisions:
- Nothing is off limits this offseason for wide receiver Mike Wallace, including being retained, traded or released by the Dolphins. Mulling the idea of a Wallace trade, James Walker of ESPN.com names three potential suitors for the veteran wideout, identifying the Seahawks and Colts as the best fits.
- It doesn’t make much sense for Jeremy Maclin to sign a deal with the Eagles right now, writes Geoff Mosher of CSNPhilly.com, pointing out that Maclin could end up being the best receiver on the market in a few weeks depending on how teams use their franchise tags. If Maclin were to sign an extension with Philadelphia now, he could short-change himself by millions – or tens of millions – during his best chance to “hit the jackpot.”
- Appearing on WGR 550 in Buffalo today, Bills head coach Rex Ryan indicated the team is keeping every option open in the search for an answer at quarterback. “We are in the evaluating stages. So, we’re looking,” Ryan said, per Joe Buscaglia of WGR 550. “We’ve got the draft coming up, free agency is coming up. You’re looking at all those type of things. Are there some scenarios out there, are there trade possibilities? You look at every possible scenario there is. From Doug Whaley all the way to our scouts, all our positional coaches… we’re looking at that. Believe me, we’ll be prepared for every scenario out there.“
- Andrew Brandt of TheMMQB.com makes 12 predictions for the coming offseason, forecasting that DeMarco Murray will return to the Cowboys on a team-friendly deal, Dallas will pay Dez Bryant a top-of-the-market multiyear contract, and Darrelle Revis will pass up a potentially bigger offer to return to the Patriots.
Terrell Thomas Announces Retirement
Veteran cornerback Terrell Thomas has announced his retirement from the NFL, the Giants confirmed today in a press release. Thomas hadn’t been on the Giants’ roster, but he played virtually entire his NFL career with the team, never appearing in a regular season game for another club.
Thomas, who turned 30 last month, was selected in the second round of the 2008 draft, and ultimately appeared in 60 games for the Giants, starting 41 of them. He was sidelined for two years – 2011 and 2012 – after suffering consecutive ACL injuries, the second and third ACL tears of his career. The USC product returned to the field in 2013 and was active in all 16 games for the Giants, making seven starts and logging 588 defensive snaps, but he expressed concern last June that teams were wary about signing him because of his injury history.
Although he eventually got a look from the Seahawks in training camp, Thomas didn’t make the club’s regular season roster, and didn’t catch on with another team during the 2014 season. The veteran corner admits that he thought he would have an active free agency, and would have no trouble finding a home, but says doctors didn’t give the OK on his knee.
“Knowing the game of football, being 29 with three ACL (injuries), I just figured my time is short,” Thomas said. “I can keep chasing a dream, but I was blessed to be able to come back and play that one year (2013). To be able to show my family and fans, my daughter and myself that I worked hard enough to overcome some significant injuries and I became the second player in NFL history to come back from three ACLs. I didn’t play with a brace. I am proud of my accomplishments. I have been through a lot and I overcame it. I am a smart dude and I am not going to chase football. Football is not chasing me. I feel like my time is over. I was blessed enough to play six years in the NFL. I lived my dream, and now it is time for the next chapter of my life.”
For his career, Thomas accumulated 285 total tackles, grabbed 12 interceptions, and defended 46 passes. His best season came in 2010, when he had 101 tackles, five INTs, 21 passes defended, and four forced fumbles.
Free Agent Market For Wide Receivers
Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to wide receivers. Let’s dive in….
Top unrestricted FAs:
- Kenny Britt (Rams)
- Dez Bryant (Cowboys)
- Randall Cobb (Packers)
- Michael Crabtree (49ers)
- Jeremy Maclin (Eagles)
- Hakeem Nicks (Colts)
- Eddie Royal (Chargers)
- Cecil Shorts (Jaguars)
- Torrey Smith (Ravens)
- Demaryius Thomas (Broncos)
- Nate Washington (Titans)
- Reggie Wayne (Colts)
No other position has the same sort of star power at the top as this year’s free agent group of receivers does. In fact, in our last installment of 2015’s free agent power rankings, four of our top eight players were wideouts, with Bryant, Thomas, Maclin, and Cobb all making the cut.
Still, it’s probably fair to assume that Bryant and Thomas, at least, won’t reach the open market. Their respective teams have the franchise tag at their disposal, and intend to use it if a long-term agreement can’t be reached. Maclin and Cobb, on the other hand, may not warrant a tag, so they’ll be worth watching as free agency nears. If they make it to the open market, long-term deals worth $10MM+ annually aren’t out of the question, considering how many receiver-needy teams have cap room to spare.
While those four players are probably in a tier of their own, Smith isn’t far behind, and Crabtree is only two years removed from an 1,100-yard season. The rest of the list is a mix of reliable veterans (Royal, Washington, Wayne), and players with some upside (Britt, Nicks, Shorts), though teams likely won’t want to make too significant an investment on a guy from either of those groups.
Other unrestricted options:
- Seyi Ajirotutu (Chargers)
- Jason Avant (Chiefs)
- Miles Austin (Browns)
- Vincent Brown (Raiders)
- Marcus Easley (Bills)
- Derek Hagan (Titans)
- Leonard Hankerson (Washington)
- Dwayne Harris (Cowboys)
- Darrius Heyward-Bey (Steelers)
- Jerrel Jernigan (Giants)
- Brandon Lloyd (49ers)
- Robert Meachem (Saints)
- Denarius Moore (Raiders)
- Marlon Moore (Browns)
- Joe Morgan (N/A)
- Josh Morgan (Bears)
- Santana Moss (Washington)
- Kevin Ogletree (Giants)
- Kassim Osgood (49ers)
- Greg Salas (Jets)
- Dane Sanzenbacher (Bengals)
- Brad Smith (Eagles)
- Brandon Tate (Bengals)
- Eric Weems (Falcons)
- Wes Welker (Broncos)
- Mike Williams (N/A)
You could make the case that Welker should be in the top tier of free agent wideouts this offseason, but his history of head injuries, combined with declining production, has him mulling the possibility of retirement, and I don’t think he’s the same guy he was even two or three seasons ago. Nonetheless, he’s one of the more intriguing names among this group, which features a number of players who are either past their primes or have yet to fully realize theirs.
If you’re looking for a player with some upside here, you could do worse than the two Raiders, Brown and Denarius Moore. Jernigan, who turns 26 this year, is also an interesting option — he was poised to assume a much larger role in the Giants’ offense in 2014 before a foot injury cut his season short. Williams also may have something left in the tank after a lost season in Buffalo, but a team shouldn’t invest more than a minimum-salary contract to find out.
In fact, that probably applies to most players on this list. There’s an outside chance a club could find an impact performer in this group, but most of these guys will end up no higher than third or fourth on a team’s depth chart. Others may not even rank that highly, contributing primarily on special teams or in the return game rather than an offense.
Restricted FAs:
- Cole Beasley (Cowboys)
- Jarrett Boykin (Packers)
- Drew Davis (Falcons)
- Kris Durham (Titans)
- Andre Holmes (Raiders)
- Damaris Johnson (Texans)
- Jermaine Kearse (Seahawks)
- Rod Streater (Raiders)
- Bryan Walters (Seahawks)
It’s not easy to pry away a restricted free agent from a team that wants to keep him, and I assume that will be the case for the more noteworthy names among this year’s RFA wideouts. Guys like Beasley, Holmes, Johnson, Kearse, and Streater should pique the interest of teams in need of wideouts, but I imagine their current clubs will submit contract tenders to bring them back.
In my view, Holmes is the most interesting player in this group, but considering how much cap room the Raiders have, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Raiders placed a higher tender on the 26-year-old to discourage rival suitors from courting him. Typically, a minimum-level RFA tender is enough to scare off potential bidders, but for less than $1MM, Oakland could increase its offer to a second-round tender, meaning that any club hoping to sign Holmes would have to part with a second-round pick to land him.
Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market: