Revisiting PFR’s 2014/15 NFL Predictions
Back in early September, eight members of the Pro Football Rumors writing team submitted predictions for the 2014/15 NFL season, forecasting the league’s playoff teams, award winners, and Super Bowl champion. Five months later, some of those picks look prescient, while others should probably just be forgotten entirely.
Still, in the interest of accountability, we’ll take a look back today at a few of those predictions to see which ones hit or missed the mark. Let’s dive in….
The good:
- While no one correctly predicted all six, we did fairly well as a group identifying the AFC playoff teams, with Rob DiRe, Matt Feminis, Ben Levine, and Rory Parks nailing five of the six.
- Zach Links’ postseason predictions looked off-the-wall back in September, but he forecasted the NFC better than anyone, correctly picking five of six postseason participants, including the surprising Cowboys. Speaking of those Cowboys, Zach was also the only one of us to see DeMarco Murray‘s Offensive Player of the Year award coming.
- Rob and Zach correctly picked multiple award winners, with Zach also predicting J.J. Watt would win Defensive Player of the Year, while Rob had Watt as DPOY and Aaron Rodgers as MVP.
- One of the only silver linings in a series of bad predictions from me? I projected Aaron Donald as the Defensive Rookie of the Year.
- Six of us had the Patriots playing in the Super Bowl, while Matt and Ben Levine each called New England as this year’s champion. Rory and David Kipke had the Seahawks as the NFC’s representative in the Super Bowl.
The bad:
- As a group, we picked four different Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates and six Coach of the Year options, but none of them were eventual winners Odell Beckham Jr. or Bruce Arians.
- Besides Zach, none of us correctly predicted more than half of the NFC’s playoff teams, with most of us just getting two of six. Disappointing seasons – or finishes – from the Saints, Eagles, 49ers, and Bears contributed to our struggles in the NFC.
- Of those NFC underachievers, New Orleans burned us the most — seven of us thought the Saints would play in the NFC title game, four of us thought they’d make the Super Bowl, and Rob and I both had them as our champions. Whoops.
- Among our predicted award winners who didn’t have the seasons we anticipated: Drew Brees, Tyrann Mathieu, Brandin Cooks, and Jadeveon Clowney.
The ugly:
- I was high enough on the Buccaneers in the preseason that I gave them the nod for the second Wild Card spot in the NFC. Instead, Tampa Bay will pick first overall in this spring’s draft after a 2-14 campaign.
- While Zach’s outside-the-box choices paid off in the NFC, his pick of the Jets to win the AFC East – led by Coach of the Year Rex Ryan – didn’t exactly pan out.
Raiders Re-Sign Charles Woodson
FEBRUARY 2, 1:09pm: According to former agent Joel Corry (via Twitter), Woodson’s one-year deal has a base value of $3.2MM, including a $1.4MM signing bonus. However, it will count for $4.2MM against the Raiders’ cap after taking into account the likely-to-be-earned incentives.
JANUARY 26, 3:25pm: Agent Carl Poston tells Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (Twitter link) that Woodson signed a one-year contract similar to the $1.8MM deal he agreed to a year ago. Over the Cap has Woodson’s previous pact listed as a one-year, $2.5MM base deal, with $1MM in likely-to-be-earned incentives, so if it’s similar to that one, it should be worth more than just $1.8MM.
2:52pm: Charles Woodson will be back for at least one more season in Oakland in 2015, according to the Raiders, who announced today (via Twitter) that they’ve re-signed the veteran defensive back. While details of the agreement aren’t yet known, it appears it’ll be another one-year deal for the 17-year pro.
Woodson, who turned 38 in October, signed a one-year, $3.5MM contract with the Raiders last March and started all 16 games for the club, grabbing four interceptions to go along with a career-high 111 tackles. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) didn’t love his performance, ranking him 68th out of 87 qualified safeties, due in part to the 355 yards after catch he allowed, a figure that was highest among safeties.
Still, PFF’s grades were significantly kinder to Woodson in 2013, and even as he enters his age-39 season, the former fourth overall pick still appears capable of logging major time in the secondary. Woodson has averaged more than 1,100 defensive snaps in his last two seasons in Oakland, placing him within the top 10 for safeties in both 2013 and 2014.
Woodson was one of the team’s only safeties who managed to stay healthy for the entire 2014 season, as Oakland saw both Tyvon Branch and Usama Young head to injured reserve within the first few weeks of the year. Brandian Ross started for much of the season alongside Woodson, but either Branch or Young should return to the starting lineup in 2015. The club will have to make a decision on Branch, whose ’15 cap hit is currently $9.657MM.
Ravens Release Terrence Cody
FEBRUARY 2, 1:08pm: The Ravens have officially released Cody, the team announced today (via Twitter).
JANUARY 23, 1:00pm: Peter Schaffer, Cody’s agent, says his client’s dog died due to worms and “there was no animal cruelty” involved, per Mike Garafolo of Fox Sports (TwitLonger link).
“If this affects at all my client’s ability to get a job, I’m going to do everything in my legal power to protect his rights,” Schaffer said. The agent also spoke to Aaron Wilson about the issue, suggesting that the league has created an “atmosphere of hysteria that tramples on due process rights” and that the state attorney should be focusing on “real issues” (all Twitter links).
11:25am: Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun provides the likely motive for the Ravens’ decision to cut ties with Cody rather than waiting for his contract to expire. According to Wilson, the defensive tackle is under investigation for animal cruelty, and the case is being discussed with the Baltimore County State attorney’s office. The Ravens are aware of the allegations against Cody, who has yet to be charged with a crime, says Wilson.
10:48am: The Ravens will terminate the contract of defensive tackle Terrence Cody following the Super Bowl, the team announced today (via Twitter). The move will allow Cody to hit the open market, making him free to sign a new deal with any of the league’s 32 teams.
After starting all 16 regular season games for the Ravens in 2011, Cody played a part-time role for the club over the next two seasons, then barely saw the field at all in 2014 while he recovered from hip surgery. Cody began the season on the physically unable to perform list, and though he was activated in early November, the 26-year-old just appeared in one game for Baltimore, playing nine defensive snaps in Week 14 against Miami.
Assuming Cody doesn’t re-sign with the Ravens, it’s a disappointing end to a stint that began when he was selected by the club in the second round of the 2010 draft. It’s also a slightly premature end — having been on a one-year contract, Cody would have been eligible for free agency in March anyway. By releasing him from his contract early, the Ravens will allow the veteran defensive lineman to get a headstart on finding a new job.
AFC West Notes: Manning, Raiders, Broncos
The Broncos have made changes at head coach and offensive coordinator since the end of their season, and their star quarterback has considered retirement, but Las Vegas still likes the team’s chances for 2015. Betting site Bovada.lv gives Denver 10/1 odds to win next year’s Super Bowl, with only the Seahawks, Patriots, and Packers ahead of the Broncos. On the other end of the spectrum, no club has longer odds at a championship than the Raiders, who are tied with the Jaguars at 200/1 odds.
Here’s the latest out of the AFC West:
- Gil Brandt of NFL.com is the latest to report that Peyton Manning is likely to return for another season in 2015, indicating in a tweet that he’s hearing the Broncos quarterback will “almost certainly” be back. Chris Mortensen of ESPN.com wrote yesterday that Manning could announce his return at some point this week, after Woody Paige of the Denver Post reported a couple weeks ago that the veteran signal-caller was leaning toward continuing his career.
- Providing an update on the Raiders‘ hunt for a defensive coordinator, Vic Tafur of the San Francisco Chronicle says that it still doesn’t seem as if the team is any rush to make a decision. According to Tafur (all Twitter links), Seahawks linebackers coach Ken Norton Jr. remains a candidate, and Oakland could also dip into the college ranks — with National Signing Day coming up this week, a coach could wait until after that to take the Raiders job. As for Mike Smith, who has been considered Jack Del Rio‘s top choice all along, the former Falcons head coach would like to take a year off, and hasn’t changed his mind on that yet, per Tafur.
- The Broncos have hired Fred Pagac as their outside linebackers coach, a source tells Alex Marvez of Fox Sports (Twitter link). Pagac, a former defensive coordinator for the Vikings, worked with the Bills’ linebackers in 2014.
Pro Football Rumors On Social Media, RSS
The NFL’s 2014/15 season is officially in the books, ending in dramatic fashion last night when the Patriots took advantage of a questionable Seahawks play-call to prevent a touchdown and secure a 28-24 victory. While the season’s last game has been played, that means the fun at Pro Football Rumors is just getting started, as we start counting down the days until free agency and the draft.
Over the next several weeks and months, there will be plenty of notable stories to track on PFR, and you don’t necessarily have to keep refreshing our site to keep tabs on them. There are a handful of different ways you can follow us to get the latest updates on NFL news and rumors all year.
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Johnny Manziel Enters Rehab Program
After a disappointing rookie season during which his off-field behavior was placed under the microscope, Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel has voluntarily entered rehab, reports Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer (via Twitter). Brad Beckworth, a friend and advisor to Manziel and his family, confirmed today that the signal-caller had checked into a treatment facility.
“Johnny knows there are areas in which he needs to improve in order to be a better family member, friend and teammate and he thought the off-season was the right time to take this step,” Beckworth said in a statement (TwitLonger link via Mike Garafolo of Fox Sports). “On behalf of Johnny and his family, we’re asking for privacy until he rejoins the team in Cleveland.”
With Brian Hoyer eligible for free agency this winter, Manziel currently has the inside track on the Browns’ starting QB job for the 2015 season, but the club is expected to bring in some competition at the position, possibly by re-signing Hoyer. If there were concerns about Manziel’s off-field behavior within the organization, the fact that he’s being proactive about seeking help should be an encouraging sign for the Browns.
“We respect Johnny’s initiative in this decision and will fully support him throughout this process,” Browns GM Ray Farmer said in a statement of his own (TwitLonger link via Garafolo). “Our players’ health and well-being will always be of the utmost importance to the Cleveland Browns. We continually strive to create a supportive environment and provide the appropriate resources, with our foremost focus being on the individual and not just the football player. Johnny’s privacy will be respected by us during this very important period and we hope that others will do the same.”
Lance Moore Seeks Release From Steelers
For the first time in his NFL career, Lance Moore played for a team besides the Saints in 2014, joining the Steelers as a free agent. After a single season in black and gold, however, Moore has asked the club to release him from his contract, according to Adam Schefter and Scott Brown of ESPN.com.
Moore, 31, caught just 14 balls for the Steelers this past season, matching his lowest total since his rookie season. While Moore was never the focal point of New Orleans’ pass game, he had three seasons of 65+ receptions with the Saints, but saw his usage decline significantly in Pittsburgh. With Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, and Markus Wheaton all ahead of him on the team’s depth chart, Moore played just 264 offensive snaps in 2014. As the ESPN.com report notes, the veteran wideout hinted at season’s end that he’d like to join a club that would give him more playing time.
“I just want to play … whether that’s here or somewhere else,” Moore said after Pittsburgh’s Wild Card loss. “I’d love to be here, I’d love to be a part of this offense, but I think those are decisions that have to be made down the line.”
If the Steelers were to release Moore, he would count for about $323K on their 2015 cap, with the club wiping his $1.5MM base salary off the books.
South Notes: Titans, Panthers, Falcons, Saints
The Titans have parted ways with vice president of player personnel Lake Dawson, the team announced on Twitter. “This was not an easy decision and I want to thank Lake for his time with the team,” general manager Ruston Webster said. “This new structure will help us streamline things from both the college and pro perspectives. We will move forward without a VP of Player Personnel and the college and pro sides will report directly to me.” It’s a bit surprising that Tennessee would fire Dawson, who’s been with the club since 2007, as he’s been in high demand around the league — he had interviewed for the GM posts in Miami, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, and Chicago.
Let’s look at some more notes from the South divisions:
- Panthers linebacker Thomas Davis is looking forward to seeing what GM Dave Gettleman and the front office can do this offseason to improve Carolina’s roster, as he tells Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer. Gettleman recently said the Panthers would be moving out of the “dollar store” this winter, and Davis was “very encouraged” by those comments. “It’s going to be interesting to see how things go this offseason,” Davis said. “We’ve had two offseasons where we didn’t do a whole lot in free agency. But we’ll see what happens this year.”
- With a new head coach set to be introduced next week and a front office that has undergone some changes this month, it’s not entirely clear who will have the final say on certain football decisions in Atlanta. Speaking to Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com, Falcons owner Arthur Blank repeatedly stressed that he expects most football matters to be collaboratively decided by Dan Quinn, Thomas Dimitroff, and Scott Pioli. Quinn and Dimitroff will report separately to Blank, while Pioli will report to Dimitroff.
- Asked today on The Jim Rome Show about what went wrong for the Saints in 2014 and how it can be addressed for 2015, quarterback Drew Brees pointed to an unusual amount of roster turnover, particularly involving core players: “It’s about getting back to building our organization and framework from the ground up again and make sure we are on the same page” (link via NewOrleansSaints.com).
2015 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates: AFC West
The deadline for assigning a franchise or transition tag on a 2015 free-agent-to-be is a little more than a month away, and we’re in the process of taking a look at players who are candidates to be tagged this year. We examined the AFC East on Tuesday, the AFC North on Wednesday, and the AFC South yesterday, before shifting our focus to the West today. Here’s a breakdown of the franchise and transition tag candidates for the Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders, and Chargers:
Denver Broncos:
- Candidates: Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Terrance Knighton
- Odds of being used: Likely
- Even after signing cornerback Chris Harris to a lucrative contract extension earlier this season, the Broncos have a handful of impact players eligible for free agency. Demaryius Thomas is the most likely to be tagged, but if he and the Broncos can quickly reach a long-term agreement, there are other guys who shouldn’t be overlooked. Julius Thomas saw his stock dip a little when he missed time late in the season, but the tight end price tag is modest compared to most positions.
Kansas City Chiefs:
- Candidates: Justin Houston, Rodney Hudson
- Odds of being used: Likely
- Like the Broncos, the Chiefs have a number of contributors eligible for free agency, including tackle Ryan Harris, linebacker Josh Mauga, and defensive back Ron Parker. Houston and Hudson are the two best candidates for a franchise tag though, and of those two, Houston represents the much likelier option. The only question would be whether the NFL’s sack leader would be considered a defensive end or a linebacker for salary purposes — in 2014, the defensive end franchise salary was nearly $2MM higher.
Oakland Raiders:
- Candidates: Stefen Wisniewski
- Odds of being used: Unlikely
- The Raiders should do everything they can to lock up Wisniewski, but the franchise tag will be an absolute last resort. Offensive linemen are all grouped together for franchise purposes, so Oakland would have to commit to a left tackle salary for the center if he’s tagged. While the Browns used the transition tag on Alex Mack last year, Mack is arguably the league’s best center, and for the most part, the position just isn’t worth that kind of investment. I’d expect Wisniewski to land a deal in the neighborhood of $5-7MM per year.
San Diego Chargers:
- Candidates: King Dunlap, Brandon Flowers
- Odds of being used: Possible
- There are bigger names headed to free agency in San Diego, including running back Ryan Mathews and veteran pass rusher Dwight Freeney, but Dunlap and Flowers are probably the two free-agents-to-be the Chargers should value most. Dunlap has emerged as an above-average left tackle in recent years, and given the holes elsewhere on the offensive line, his presence would benefit Philip Rivers going forward. As for Flowers, Pro Football Focus (subscription required) graded him as one of the league’s best cornerbacks before injuries slowed him down in the second half. A franchise tag salary would be an overpay for either player, but it’s an option San Diego should at least consider if extensions can’t be agreed upon.
Minor Moves: Friday
Here are today’s minor transactions from around the NFL, with any additional moves added to the top of the list throughout the afternoon and evening:
- The Bears have locked up linebacker and special-teamer DeDe Lattimore to a two-year contract extension, the team announced today (Twitter link). An undrafted free agent in 2014, Lattimore would have been an exclusive rights free agent, so it’s a modest deal for him — Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun tweets that he’ll earn the minimum salary for the next two seasons, with no guaranteed money.
- Safety Ian Wild, who worked out for the Steelers several weeks ago, has signed a reserve/futures contract with the team, according to PR man Burt Lauten (Twitter link).