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Offseason In Review: Buffalo Bills

August 22nd, 2024 at 9:57pm CST by Sam Robinson

The Chiefs once again flipped a regular-season loss to the Bills into a playoff win, continuing a series that keeps seeing Buffalo’s Super Bowl path blocked despite the AFC East champions holding their own in the matchup. After an injury-battered Bills defense came up short in Round 2 last year, the team set about a retooling effort that featured more notable changes on the other side of the ball. Josh Allen has a new-look receiving corps. For the first time since his ascent to superstardom, the do-it-all QB will not be targeting Stefon Diggs.

Additional Bills moves centered on cap-based adjustments, with a few longtime starters — some longer in the tooth, others who had dealt with injuries — also out of the picture. As a result, curiosity surrounds Sean McDermott‘s team and perhaps the eighth-year HC’s status. But the Bills still have Allen and many key pieces from their early-2020s stay atop their division. While they should still remain a factor in the Super Bowl chase, plenty of eyes will be on this team as it reshapes its blueprint to reach its long-sought-after goal.

Trades:

As difficult as it appeared Diggs was for the Bills to manage at points, his 2020 arrival played a pivotal role in Allen catapulting toward his current place in the game. The 2018 first-round pick took a seminal step in Diggs’ debut, and the former Vikings draftee became one of the NFL’s most consistent pass catchers in Buffalo.

The Allen-Diggs tandem produced three straight 1,200-plus-yard seasons, with Year 1 doubling as Diggs’ lone first-team All-Pro showing. The elite route runner also displayed durability for a Bills team that shuffled through second bananas in the passing game, missing only one contest in four seasons. Though, last year brought some concerning signs.

Diggs, 30, struggled down the stretch, averaging only 41 yards per game and scoring just once over the Bills’ final 10 contests; Joe Brady‘s offense did not coax the nine-year veteran’s best work. Diggs’ 1,183-yard season brought speedbumps and produced a brutal final act — dropping a well-placed Allen deep ball late in another narrow January loss to the Chiefs.

Diggs’ sudden production decline came a year after he stormed out of Buffalo’s locker room following a one-sided loss to Cincinnati. During the 2023 offseason program, Diggs left the Bills’ facility unexpectedly — before McDermott called the confusing matter, which may or may not have stemmed from the wideout’s role in the offense, “very concerning.” A year later, Diggs will be asked to help the Texans develop C.J. Stroud.

A report pointed to the Texans including a 2025 second-rounder as changing Buffalo brass’ mind on retaining the WR. That said, this trade brought a non-QB record for single-player dead money ($31.1MM). That full amount is on the Bills’ 2024 cap sheet. Considering what it cost the Bills to trade their top target, it clearly did not take too much convincing on the Texans’ part. Indeed, an April report indicated Diggs’ antics had worn thin and Bills higher-ups were ready to move on. Ultimately, Diggs (zero TDs with Brady at the controls) expected to be traded for a second time.

The Texans had pursued Keenan Allen; they needed to give the Bills more than the Bears sent the Chargers. Houston curiously removed the final three seasons of Diggs’ Bills-constructed extension — four years, $96MM — in a reported effort to better motivate the veteran playmaker. That odd decision will put Diggs on track for free agency come March, barring an extension before that point. Diggs exiting western New York with four years remaining on his contract injects uncertainty into the Bills’ equation, as Allen’s age-28 season does not seem likely to include a true No. 1 receiver. Allen has obviously displayed tremendous growth since his rocky pre-Diggs years, but his team has an issue to sort out soon.

Playing on a Bears-designed contract for the past two seasons, Bates is now part of that team. The Bills matched the Bears’ RFA offer sheet during Ryan Poles‘ first offseason running the NFC North franchise, but after using Bates as a starter in 15 games in 2022, they demoted him upon adding guards Connor McGovern and O’Cyrus Torrence. Bates worked strictly as a backup last season; the 27-year-old blocker is vying for Chicago’s starting center role while giving the team an option at right guard.

Extensions and restructures:

More attention surrounded the players the Bills lost this offseason, but the team paid two core performers. Dawkins is the longest-tenured Bills left tackle since Jim Kelly– and Doug Flutie-era blindsider John Fina. Only Fina (131) and 1970s and ’80s LT bastion Ken Jones (130) have served longer in this role. Carrying 106 career starts, Dawkins will have a chance to top this list during the 2025 season. Cordy Glenn‘s LT successor has made the past three Pro Bowls, anchoring an O-line that has seen changes come to pass everywhere else during his eight-year tenure.

Pass block win rate placed Dawkins fourth overall among tackles last season, and Pro Football Focus has ranked him outside the top 25 among tackles only once (2018). Dawkins, 30, has also avoided injuries. A second-round pick during the draft McDermott and Doug Whaley shepherded (one that also produced Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano), Dawkins has been one of the team’s catalysts during this rise. This third contract should include more prime years for the Temple product, who is now the NFL’s sixth-highest-paid LT. Given Dawkins’ stability, the Bills having him at this rate represents good value.

Coming into the offseason, the slot cornerback market had stagnated. Neither Johnson nor Kenny Moore were able to score deals beyond where 2010s All-Decade slot Chris Harris went ($8.5MM AAV) during the 2014 season. Both current AFC slot staples finally elevated the market to eight-figure-per-year territory. Moore re-signed with the Colts at three years and $30MM; Johnson topped that days later to become the league’s highest-paid inside corner. The Bills CB’s guarantee at signing also narrowly topped Moore’s $16MM figure, which is impressive considering the latter hit free agency.

During Johnson’s second contract, the Bills have seen their outside corners struggle to either stay healthy (Tre’Davious White) or justify a first-round investment (Kaiir Elam). Johnson, meanwhile, has anchored Buffalo’s CB corps during the 2020s. PFF gave the 2018 fourth-rounder a career-best grade last season, ranking him 17th among all corners, and his 7.4 yards per target figure was his best mark since his rookie season. Johnson also forced three fumbles in 2023. As the Bills transition from White, they will need Johnson (28) to keep delivering top-shelf work inside.

Miller’s status loomed as tenuous during a season in which he was clearly hampered by a second ACL tear. The year ended with the future Hall of Famer being arrested on a third-degree felony charge of assaulting a pregnant person. Both Miller and the alleged victim, his girlfriend, denied a crime occurred. An NFL suspension would void Miller’s remaining guarantees — $8.5MM for 2024. After this year, no guaranteed money remains on a deal that has not worked out the way the Bills hoped. Nothing has come out in 2024 regarding any potential punishment for the 35-year-old edge rusher, and the Bills restructuring the deal firmly keeps Miller in their plans.

The former Broncos and Rams superstar said he is 100% healthy; he is now nearly 21 months removed from the knee injury that ended his 2022 season — a promising campaign that featured eight sacks in 11 games — and sidetracked his 2023 slate. Miller played in 12 games, starting none, last season and did not resemble the dominant sack artist the Bills signed for $20MM per. The team will hope the 14th-year vet has another rebound season in him, as it lost Leonard Floyd in free agency. Due to this restructure, the Bills would take on $15.4MM in dead money if they released Miller next year.

Allen denied he is unhappy with his contract, but the Bills have an incredible bargain atop their payroll. Their $43MM-per-year Allen accord has aged remarkably well, as the perennial MVP candidate — after Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa and Jordan Love joined the $50MM-AAV club — is the NFL’s 13th-highest-paid QB. The Bills could move money around the way the Chiefs did to accommodate Patrick Mahomes‘ deal.

Thus far, Allen is the only QB who has emulated Mahomes by signing an extension longer than five years. The six-year pact Allen signed runs through 2028, and like Mahomes’ deal, Allen’s has extended space for base-to-bonus restructures. The Bills took advantage of that flexibility in March.

The Bills will need to address this matter in the not-too-distant future. With five more seasons on the contract, the team can sit tight for now. As is the case with Mahomes and the Chiefs, however, the QB carries significant leverage due simply to his franchise-elevating skillset. It will be interesting to see if the seventh-year passer uses it soon, especially when factoring in the run-game role the former No. 7 overall pick has taken on — only two QBs (Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton) have logged more carries through six seasons — thus far in his career.

Free agency additions:

Buffalo began to reassemble its wide receiver pieces in March, though Samuel and Hollins joined the team when Diggs was still expected to be the WR1. This equation soon involved Valdes-Scantling, Byrd, Hamler and Chase Claypool. The twice-traded WR, however, is out of the picture via an injury settlement. Holdover Khalil Shakir and second-round pick Keon Coleman figure to lead the way for the Bills, with a heavy assist from TEs Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, but the team will need auxiliary help at least from free agents.

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Offseason In Review: Green Bay Packers

August 20th, 2024 at 10:17pm CST by Sam Robinson

Continuing to zag when it comes to quarterback development and roster construction, the Packers centered their offseason around a Jordan Love commitment. After seeing a promising second half from their Aaron Rodgers successor nearly produce a voyage to the NFC championship game, the Pack are back in the franchise-QB payment business.

Love’s monster extension complements an offense that lost two of its veteran pillars — in Aaron Jones and David Bakhtiari — as the team continues to build around lofty investments on the defensive side. But the Packers’ Love decision, which is certainly a different route when it comes to an experience-to-dollars ratio, will define the franchise for the foreseeable future.

Extensions and restructures:

When Rodgers agreed to his first extension during his 2008 starter debut season — a six-year, $63.52MM deal, illustrating where QB contracts have gone — it did not check in as a record-setting payday. It was not particularly close, either. Carson Palmer‘s Bengals extension outflanked Rodgers’ first Packers deal. So did Peyton Manning‘s 2004 Colts payday, along with Tom Brady‘s first Patriots re-up and Ben Roethlisberger‘s initial Steelers extension. That gave the Packers a runway to better learn about Rodgers’ capabilities. The organization was certainly proven right and suddenly had a bargain deal at quarterback until the 2013 offseason.

Today’s skyrocketing QB market changed the equation for Love and the team, which needed to match an NFL-record AAV for a player with 18 regular-season starts. This era of one-upping differs from how a few teams handled QB contracts even following Rodgers’ 2013 extension. No one topped the Packer QB’s $22MM-per-year deal until the 2016 offseason. A host of deals in 2015 (for Roethlisberger, Wilson, Cam Newton, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers) settled between $20MM and $21.9MM per year, acknowledging Rodgers’ place in the game. For the most part, these sort of acknowledgments no longer exist.

Love’s deal not coming with a discount keeps the Packers in the high-cost QB business, as 2023 — which featured near-record-tying (pre-Russell Wilson, at least) dead money from the Rodgers trade — did not bring a reprieve. Diving right back into a top-market contract, as Rodgers’ deal came off the books this year, ramps up the pressure for Brian Gutekunst and Co. to be right on the player they traded up for in 2020.

Both parties wanted this deal done by training camp, and Love held in to complete the process. The Packers agreeing to a half-measure extension, rather than pick up a fully guaranteed fifth-year option on a player who entered 2023 with one career start, provided Love leverage. The QB capitalized, joining Tua Tagovailoa in this regard, on his contract-year status. The Packers would have faced a $40MM-plus 2025 cap hold had Love played out this season and brought the threat of a franchise tag. Whereas teams have held more control during this process by extending a first-round quarterback after his third season, Green Bay’s outlier three-year apprenticeship program did not give the team that option. After a promising close to last season, Love was able to exert more control in this process.

Struggling during much of the season’s first half, Love led the NFL in QBR from Weeks 11-18 — a stretch that included 18 TD passes and one INT. The four-year veteran was then tremendous in the Packers’ wild-card upset over the Cowboys, before leading the NFC’s first competitive No. 7 seed to a narrow loss over the eventual NFC champion 49ers. Love obviously made for an atypical extension candidate, but the Packers are all in.

Contract structure was believed to be the final issue for Love’s camp. A team that does not do post-Year 1 guarantees beyond signing bonuses again bent for a quarterback, and Love secured the increasingly popular rolling guarantee structure on this deal.

Love’s 2025 salary is guaranteed at signing, and his 2026 base salary is partially guaranteed already. That 2026 figure will become fully guaranteed in 2025. That structure pertains to Love’s 2027 base salary as well. The team guaranteed $20MM of the QB’s ’27 base ($41.9MM) for injury at signing; that $20MM shifts to a full guarantee a year early. Love did remarkably well on this contract and will be positioned, should his late-season form be indicative of his career trajectory, to cash in again before age 30.

The Packers took care of Clark before his contract year, bringing up an extension earlier this offseason and completing the agreement before training camp. Despite coming into the league in 2016, Clark will not turn 29 until October. The Pack should have more prime years coming from the former first-round pick — one of six first-rounders still on Green Bay’s defense — and they completed a deal without going into the top 10 on a swiftly rising D-tackle market. Clark’s $21.33MM AAV both marked a notable raise and the 11th-highest-paid DT accord.

Keeping with the Pack’s non-QB standard, the only guaranteed money in Clark’s deal comes from his signing bonus. But the eighth-year DT is owed a $7.5MM roster bonus next March. That ups the practical guarantee to $25MM. It would cost the Packers $17MM in dead money to move on from Clark in 2026, due to signing bonus proration. This gives the veteran a good chance of staying on this through-2027 deal for at least three seasons. Clark is due an $11MM roster bonus in 2026.

The UCLA alum ranks seventh in starts (109) by a Packer D-lineman. He can move into first all time on this contract; Dave Hanner (1953-64) holds that mark at 141.

Free agency additions:

Although Hard Knocks primarily focused on the Giants’ Saquon Barkley loss, it also revealed surprise on Giants GM Joe Schoen‘s part upon learning McKinney’s contract.After factoring in a McKinney extension upon letting Julian Love walk in 2023, the Giants did not keep him off the market for the transition tag sum ($13.8MM). That may have been a mistake. The former second-round pick proceeded to score a top-four safety contract, with the Packers paying up to address an issue.

Green Bay moved on from its top three safeties last year (Darnell Savage. Jonathan Owens, Rudy Ford) and paid McKinney, who submitted two quality Giants seasons and two injury-plagued years. After a McKinney ATV accident led to him missing much of the 2022 campaign, Pro Football Focus graded him as the No. 4 overall safety last season. McKinney, 26, represents an out-of-character move from the Packers, who are not known for paying safeties or signing off on — even in the Gutekunst era — top-market free agency accords.

McKinney played the Jessie Bates role on this year’s market. As another macro safety evaluation appeared to take place this year — leading to the releases of several prominent veterans and a slew of mid-market payments for unrestricted free agents — McKinney’s price came in nearly $8MM higher (in terms of AAV) than any other UFA safety. After Bates (four years, $64MM) rewarded the Falcons for their high-cost addition, the Packers won a bidding war for McKinney, who has also shown quality ball skills in his career. The Alabama alum intercepted five passes in 2021 and three last season. Referring to himself as the game’s best safety, McKinney will attempt to prove it in Wisconsin.

Perhaps the most notable participant on a historically busy day at the running back position, the Packers said goodbye to a seven-year regular (Aaron Jones) and brought in Jacobs. The five-year Raiders starter is three years younger than Jones, and while the former has not proven as dynamic, the incumbent approaching his 30th birthday undoubtedly played into Green Bay’s thinking here. Jacobs, 26, won the 2022 rushing title but is coming off a far less productive year on the franchise tag. The Packers will bet on more prime years remaining for Jacobs, who was part of last year’s famous RB macro evaluation.

The Raiders, Giants and Cowboys respectively not extending their tagged running backs — after the Packers had given Jones a pay cut and the Cowboys (Ezekiel Elliott) and Vikings (Dalvin Cook) had released longtime starters — prompted a Zoom meeting among key backs about their state of the union. Jacobs, who rampaged for an NFL-high 2,053 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns in 2022, accumulated only 1,101 last season — before missing four games due to multiple contusions. After producing the fifth-most rushing yards over expected in 2022 (158), Jacobs finished with the fifth-worst number (minus-86) last year.

Matt LaFleur admitted he was caught off-guard by how the Packers’ running back situation shook out, and Jacobs also indicated he turned down more money elsewhere. More pass-game opportunities should be expected to emerge for Jacobs, who did catch 107 combined passes from 2021-22.

Green Bay’s Jones-to-Jacobs transition is also interesting due to the younger back having more career touches (1,502) compared to Jones (1,449). Jacobs has missed 10 career games; since 2019, Jones has also missed 10. Six of those came last season. While the Packers guaranteed Jacobs just $12.5MM, he is due a $5.93MM signing bonus if on Green Bay’s roster on Day 5 of the 2025 league year.

This profiles as a two-year deal before a year-to-year scenario takes shape in 2026. Even if Jacobs’ 2025 roster bonus is included, he still fetched far less in fully guaranteed money than Barkley, who secured $26MM from the Eagles despite a well-documented injury history and a higher touch total.

Re-signings:

Adding slot cornerback to his duties along with return specialist, Nixon scored a solid veteran deal two years after following Rich Bisaccia from Las Vegas. The Raiders nontendered Nixon as an RFA in 2022, leading to Bisaccia’s new team reaching out. Nixon mostly focused on a return-game role in 2022; he blazed to first-team All-Pro status as a kick returner. Nixon repeated that feat in 2023, and the Packers re-signed him just before the NFL radically revamped its kickoff setup. That change stands to make Nixon more valuable.

Of course, Nixon receiving a $6MM-per-year deal was also contingent on him continuing as the team’s slot corner. The Packers abandoned their Rasul Douglas slot experiment during the 2022 season and went into last year with Nixon in that role. He played 937 defensive snaps — by far a career high — and while PFF graded him outside the top 80 and Pro-Football-Reference’s coverage metrics applied higher numbers in terms of completion percentage (77.8%) and passer rating (104.8), the Packers clearly value the former UDFA in a cornerback group that features little certainty beyond Jaire Alexander.

Dillon did not do nearly as well in free agency. On a crowded RB market, the inside grinder settled for a deal that provided next to no guaranteed money. Jones’ powerful complementary option for four seasons, Dillon averaged a career-worst 3.4 yards per carry last year — his first under 4.1 per tote.

The former second-round pick has been effective in the past, and while he said a bit more money may have been out there for him, the Green Bay aficionado — Dillon plans to camp in the city following his NFL career — entered training camp on the roster bubble.

Notable losses:

As Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul ran wild during the 2020 NFC championship game, Bakhtiari’s absence created one of the bigger what-ifs in offensive line history. The Packers saw an ACL tear sustained during a New Year’s Eve practice change their left tackle course, as Bakhtiari — a first-team All-Pro that season and a five-time All-Pro over his career — has been unable to stay healthy since.

The stalwart LT missed all but 27 snaps in 2021, returning to the sideline after debuting in a meaningless Week 18 game, and — after showing promising form in 11 games back in 2022 — missed almost all of last season. This all pointed to a 2024 separation.

Green Bay had restructured Bakhtiari’s deal in 2021 and ’22, immediately seeing the four-year, $92MM extension — only Rodgers and Love have signed more lucrative deals among Packers — become an issue quickly due to the once-dependable LT signing it weeks before his knee injury. Bakhtiari, who has undergone five knee surgeries since that fateful practice, will count $18.15MM in dead money this year. Like Rodgers’ dead cap hit in 2023, Bakhtiari’s contract will be off the team’s books for good after a year. The 11-year veteran, 33 in September, wants to keep playing but has not caught on anywhere.

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Offseason In Review: Cleveland Browns

August 20th, 2024 at 10:14pm CST by Adam La Rose

Year 2 of the Deshaun Watson era in Cleveland did not go according to plan for team or player in 2023. A lingering shoulder injury limited the high-priced passer to six games and set off a number of changes made in the lineup at the quarterback position. The Browns managed to post a record of 11-6 while relying on Joe Flacco down the stretch and managing a slew of other ailments on offense.

Nick Chubb is among the key players still on the mend for Cleveland as the team looks to improve on a 2023 wild-card berth. Stability on the sidelines and in the front office should help that effort, and the Browns return one of the league’s top defenses. Once again, however, attention will be placed on Watson’s ability to stay on the field and deliver on his fully guaranteed contract. Three years remain on his monster pact, one which is set to carry a record-breaking cap charge in 2024.

Trades:

Amari Cooper has delivered during his time in Cleveland, racking up over 2,400 yards and 14 touchdowns across the past two years. The five-time Pro Bowler has thus served as a needed No. 1 wideout on his third career team, but finding consistent complementary options has been an organizational priority recently. Elijah Moore was acquired via trade last March, and the same was true of Jeudy one year later.

The latter struggled to live up to expectations in Denver, with his best campaign coming in 2022 (during which he posted a 67-927-6 statline). Jeudy – alongside fellow Broncos wideout Courtland Sutton – was frequently mentioned as a trade candidate near the past two trade deadlines, but no move was made in either case. The Broncos then set a high trade price on Jeudy — a first-round pick — during the 2023 offseason. The first year with Sean Payton at the helm was beneficial for Sutton’s production much more than it was for Jeudy’s. Months later, the team was willing to move on for a much lower return.

The former first-rounder made it known after his Cleveland arrival that he asked to be dealt ahead of the 2023 campaign. Payton rejected that request at first, but Jeudy repeated it after the campaign, one in which his statistical output took a step back. The fact the Alabama product was entering a contract year at the time of the swap helps explain the underwhelming trade terms from Denver’s perspective. Jeudy quickly worked out a multiyear extension with the Browns, however, eliminating the chance of a free agent departure after his fifth-year option season.

That three-year, $52.5MM deal contains $41MM in guarantees. It ensures Jeudy will remain in place through 2027 and represents a rather notable investment in his ability to develop into at least a consistent starting option. Numerous receiver deals have eclipsed the value of Jeudy’s pact in recent months, but Cleveland is clearly banking on solid play from him with or without Cooper leading the way down the road.

A trio of Cooper, Jeudy and Moore should give the Browns their best WR room since the Watson acquisition. Especially if Chubb misses time early in the campaign, an efficient passing game will be key to the Browns’ success on offense. If Jeudy acclimates well in an environment he chose to enter, the former No. 15 overall pick will be a key contributor in that regard.

Harris played out his rookie contract with the Browns, making 40 appearances and four starts. He departed on the open market by taking a one-year Seahawks deal worth $2.51MM and thus earning the chance to compete for a starting role. Seattle recently signed Connor Williams, however, providing the team with a more experienced option in the middle.

The Browns, meanwhile, have run into injury trouble at center. The latest example of that was backup Luke Wypler suffering an ankle injury in the team’s preseason opener which will require surgery. Harris, 25, will thus return to Cleveland in position to serve as a No. 2 option to Ethan Pocic. The trade saw Harris and a seventh-round pick come back in return for a sixth-rounder.

Free agency additions:

Hicks’ arrival will allow him to reunite with defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. The pair worked together in Philadelphia at the start of Hicks’ career. The former third-rounder developed into a full-time starter during that span, notching five interceptions in 2016. He turned in a healthy three-year stretch in Arizona before spending the past two seasons with the Vikings.

Hicks was limited to 13 games in 2023, but he still managed a fifth consecutive season with triple-digit tackles. The 32-year-old may not be expected to replicate his production against the pass from his Eagles tenure, but he should handle starting duties with his fourth team. Cleveland’s edge rush and secondary are set to remain strong in 2024. Still, the linebacker position faces questions marks. Hicks should provide dependable first-team play at a reasonable cost.

Bush, by contrast, represents a low-risk, high-reward investment. The former top-10 pick failed to live up to expectations in Pittsburgh, leading to a one-year Seahawks deal last offseason. Bush, 26, played sparingly on defense and was not a key special teams contributor. This season will provide him with another opportunity to carve out a rotational role and thus help his market value, though.

While Joe Flacco expressed interest in a new Browns deal after his surprisingly successful tenure to close out the season, Cleveland explored other backup options. That led to Winston connections quickly developing. The Browns were known to have the former No. 1 pick on their radar ahead of the new league year, although they were joined in that respect by the Titans and Giants.

Winston has continued to express interest in a starting gig despite serving as a Saints backup for most of the past four seasons. The 30-year-old’s last full campaign in a No. 1 role was 2019, when he memorably closed out his Buccaneers tenure with 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. Watson’s history of missed time with the Browns certainly suggests the door could open to notable playing time for Winston this season. In that event, the latter could help his free agent stock considerably with a strong showing. At a minimum, though, the former No. 1 overall pick should provide the team with a veteran backup capable of handling first-team duties over an extended stretch if needed.

Watson and Winston occupy the top two spots on the QB depth chart, and Huntley is in competition with 2023 fifth-rounder Dorian Thompson-Robinson for the No. 3 gig. After joining the Ravens as a UDFA, Huntley made a total of 10 starts (including one in the playoffs) across four seasons. That experience led to interest from the Steelers and could give him a leg up on Thompson-Robinson (whose struggles as a rookie helped inform the move to Flacco as starter), but limited guarantees make Huntley’s hold on a roster spot a tenuous one.

Jefferson spent five of his first seven NFL seasons in Seattle, but he has not managed to find a long-term home in recent years. The 31-year-old played single campaigns with the Bills (2020), Raiders (2021) and Jets (2023) while remaining a regular contributor at every stop. Jefferson set a new career high in sacks last season with six, and he has posted at least three every year since 2018. While his deal pales in comparison to the one Dalvin Tomlinson landed last offseason, Jefferson should be counted on as a key contributor along the interior for Cleveland.

With Chubb’s health and return timeline a question mark, it came as little surprise the Browns made multiple backfield additions. Hines suffered an ACL tear during an offseason jet ski accident, and he missed the 2023 campaign as a result. The chance to reunite with offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey (after working with him in Buffalo) and handle the role of returner appealed to Hines when making his free agent decision. If the former Colts contributor can regain his previous form upon returning to health, he could thrive as a pass-catching specialist and third-phase producer.

Foreman’s path to a roster spot is narrower. The 28-year-old entered training camp in competition with Pierre Strong Jr. for the third spot on the RB depth chart. That role will be in place only until Chubb returns, of course, and neither player has considerable guaranteed money on their contract. Foreman’s 4.2 career yards per carry average could make him an attractive option for outside teams during roster cutdowns if he becomes available, though.

Re-signings:

The Browns did not make any major splashes in terms of adding outside free agents, and Smith was the only player listed amongst PFR’s top 50 options on the open market. The three-time Pro Bowler made his return to the AFC North last offseason by taking a one-year Cleveland pact. A former Ravens draftee, Smith remained productive when healthy during his time with the Packers (2019-21, 26 sacks) and Vikings (2022, 10 sacks). A first-team role awaited him upon arrival with the Browns, but his 5.5 sacks were his fewest in a full campaign since 2017.

Nevertheless, Smith landed a notable deal to remain with the Browns. The former fourth-rounder received a signing bonus of nearly $11MM, and he will collect a $2MM roster bonus early in 2025. Smith should be expected to remain Myles Garrett’s main complement, although Ogbonnia Okoronkwo logged a career-high 53% snap share in his debut Browns campaign. The latter posted 4.5 sacks, and continued development could cut into Smith’s playing time and production moving forward.

While Jefferson will take on a notable workload with Cleveland, Harris should also maintain a key rotational role given the team’s decision to retain him through 2025. The 33-year-old’s snap share in 2023 (42%) was his lowest since 2015, and his statistical output took a step back as a result. Harris has starting experience dating back to his time with the Broncos and Seahawks, however, so he will be capable of handling an uptick in usage if injuries or poor play become an issue for Cleveland’s new arrivals on the D-line.

McLeod was not a full-time starter in 2023, his first season with the Browns. That made this past campaign the first since his rookie year in which he did not start every contest. The 12-year veteran gave thought to retiring after this past season, one in which a biceps injury limited him to 10 games. However, he will carry on for one more year in search of a second Super Bowl ring. McLeod will again offer Cleveland a highly experienced backup behind Grant Delpit and Juan Thornhill in 2024.  

Bojorquez has spent the past two seasons with the Browns after his time with the Bills and Packers. The New Mexico alum led the NFL in yards per punt during the 2020 season, and while he has not been able to duplicate that feat in recent years he has remained consistent. Keeping Bojorquez in the fold will allow Cleveland to have multiyear continuity on special teams with kicker Dustin Hopkins and long snapper Charley Hughlett still in place for 2024 and beyond.

Notable losses:

Flacco first joined the Browns in November, and he made his first start in Week 12. The former Super Bowl MVP’s level of play over the next five weeks (4-1 record, 13 touchdown passes, 90.2 passer rating) quickly put to rest questions about who would serve as starter during the playoffs with Watson sidelined. Flacco was rested for Cleveland’s meaningless regular-season finale, but he was not at his best in the wild-card round. A two-interception game (bringing his total in that department to 10 on the year) ended in a 45-14 loss to the Texans.

In the aftermath of that contest, it appeared a mutual interest existed between team and player for their relationship to continue. To that end, the 2023 Comeback Player of the Year was surprised he wound up needing to find a new home in free agency. The Eagles made an offer for what would have been a reunion after Flacco spent part of the 2021 season in Philadelphia. Instead, the team would up trading for Kenny Pickett.

Flacco signed with the Colts to serve as a replacement for Gardner Minshew. Indianapolis will hope to have better health from Anthony Richardson in 2024, something which would keep Flacco in the role of mentor. The 39-year-old has shown, however, that under the right circumstances he can step in on short notice and keep an offense afloat if needed despite his age.

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Offseason In Review: New Orleans Saints

August 17th, 2024 at 9:02pm CST by Sam Robinson

Checking in as a lower-profile team since Drew Brees‘ retirement and Sean Payton‘s exit, the Saints have not deviated too far from their Payton-era M.O. No rebuild has taken place, and GM Mickey Loomis‘ cap gymnastics remain in high gear. But the team’s fight has produced solidly middle-class residency post-Brees. This offseason brought some attempted fixes and the usual avalanche of restructures. Will they be enough to move the Saints out of this unremarkable sector they have populated for the past few years?

Extensions and restructures:

We will go ahead and assume none of our remaining Offseason In Review offerings will feature this level of restructure volume, but the Saints’ perpetual quest to delay a rebuild/cap reset is one of the NFL’s more underrated offseason features. Loomis continues to creatively reach cap compliance — to the point it is almost easier to name the starters whose contracts were not adjusted. More than $80MM over the cap entering the offseason — Loomis has moved under the cap from deeper in the red before — the Saints benefited from the $30.6MM cap spike.

When the Saints signed Carr, they gave him a $70MM practical guarantee. The 11th-year veteran will be due a $10MM roster bonus (already guaranteed) next year and has $10MM of his 2025 base salary ($30MM) guaranteed. More than $40MM in signing bonus money is now on New Orleans’ books from 2025-28, with three void years included in the deal, as this restructure added $4.6MM to each prorated figure.

This rework will tie Carr to the Saints through at least 2025. Before any other restructures (which may well happen, as this is New Orleans), Carr would cost the team more than $28MM to release in 2026.

The Saints did some work at linebacker this offseason, signing off on another Davis deal before giving Warner a midlevel second contract. Thriving in Dennis Allen‘s scheme, Davis he has been one of this NFL period’s best off-ball linebackers. He is 5-for-5 in All-Pro honors (one first team, four second teams) since his age-30 season, continuing as a three-down player who boosts the Saints’ pass rush in addition to his traditional LB responsibilities. Davis has been a revelation in New Orleans, registering 29 sacks since his 2018 arrival. In terms of off-ball LBs, no one else has more than 23 in that span.

Like ex-Davis teammate Chris Harris at his peak, Pro Football Focus views the do-it-all linebacker in rare air. The advanced metrics site has rated the aging defender as a top-eight off-ball LB in each of the past five seasons. The Saints have used the 12-year vet on between 97-100% of their defensive snaps over the past four, and without noticeable slippage at 35, Davis secured more than two thirds of his 2025 salary guaranteed on this deal — his fourth Saints contract. A key part of Allen’s defenses during the Saints’ late-2010s surge, the perennially underrated defender has a decent shot at playing an age-36 season in New Orleans.

While predicting someone to outlast Davis has been unwise, Werner’s contract puts him in position to anchor the team’s defensive second level after the stalwart’s retirement. Though the Saints can escape this contract fairly easily in 2026, Werner is signed through 2027 on a deal that ranks 18th among non-rush ‘backers.

Rather than try his luck in a contract year and hit free agency, the former second-round pick took an offer in line with an expanding LB middle class. The top of this position’s market thinned this offseason, but teams continue to flood the $6-$10MM-per-year range here. Werner became a full-time player in 2023, logging an 88% snap rate. The Saints expect the 25-year-old defender to build on that run in the mid-2020s.

Signed shortly after the 2022 draft, Mathieu has continued a strong career in his hometown. The two-time Super Bowl starter has not commanded a deal in line with his Chiefs pact (three years, $42MM back in 2019) but remains a productive player. The Saints gave Mathieu a second contract this offseason, one that created $6MM-plus in cap space. Mathieu, 31, secured 2024 guarantees that were not previously in place, though the through-2025 deal does not necessarily ensure the Honey Badger will be back next season.

Lastly, the Saints adjusted Lattimore’s contract in a way that would make him easier to trade. Though, time is running out for that to matter in 2024. The team inserted option bonuses into Lattimore’s contract, which has now been thrice restructured. The $2.76MM 2024 bonus does not need to be paid until just before Week 1, but it would still be reasonable for the Saints to pay the bonus and then trade Lattimore in-season — depending on the offers that emerge. For several weeks now, however, the team has expected to retain Lattimore for an eighth season.

The Pro Bowl cornerback missed seven games last season and 10 in 2022. Some within the organization took issue with the pace at which Lattimore recovered from a lacerated kidney (2022) and last year’s ankle injury. The Saints also considered trades in March, with teams showing interest. Several clubs believed the Saints were indeed shopping Lattimore, whose five-year, $97MM extension runs through 2026. For now, the four-time Pro Bowler remains a Saint. But this will be a situation to monitor if New Orleans starts slowly and Lattimore stays healthy. That said, the 28-year-old CB fits in on a defense flooded with veterans.

Next year’s salary cap number will not surface for months, but the Saints are projected to be $36MM higher than any other team. OverTheCap has New Orleans slotted at $95MM-plus over the projected 2025 salary ceiling. This would be another big test for Loomis, who would face more difficult choices if a fourth straight season goes by without a playoff berth.

Free agency additions:

While this free agency period was less eventful than last year’s Carr-centered project, the Saints added some complementary pieces. One is a high-upside play to address a position that has suddenly become vulnerable.

Young joins a Saints team that saw Cam Jordan post just two sacks — admittedly in an injury-plagued season — in 2023. Payton Turner has also failed to take off after being a first-round pick. The Saints relied on former UDFA Carl Granderson to anchor their pass rush last season, and while he delivered 8.5 sacks and 20 QB hits, the team needs more help as Jordan enters his age-35 season. Enter Young, who stood as one of the most high-variance free agents in recent memory.

Looking like a future star during his 2020 rookie year, Young saw a severe knee injury sidetrack his career in 2021. A torn ACL and ruptured patellar tendon kept the former Defensive Rookie of the Year on the shelf for over a year, but last season brought rejuvenation to the point several teams contacted the Commanders about a trade. The 49ers gave up a third-round compensatory choice for Young, who matched his career-high with 7.5 sacks last season and established a new high-water mark with 15 QB hits. These are not eye-popping numbers, but Young played 19 games last season after losing most of his previous two.

Of course, Young needed the full offseason to rehab a separate issue. A neck injury cost Young Week 1 of last season, and although the four-year veteran played through it, the matter affected his trade market. Young, 25, underwent surgery but has since returned to practice. His health history prompted the Saints to build a contract around per-game roster bonuses; those comprise $7.99MM of Young’s outlay.

As Montez Sweat‘s durability (and production while Young was out) keyed a $24.5MM-per-year Bears extension, Young is deep in “prove it” territory. The former No. 2 overall pick will attempt to rebuild his value, and it will probably take a mostly healthy season for a multiyear offer to form. Otherwise, Young may be on a Jadeveon Clowney-like career arc.

While Drue Tranquill fetched a three-year deal worth $19MM to remain a Chief, Gay could only command a $3MM pact in free agency. Gay has made 47 career starts, and the former second-round pick notched nine tackles for loss (88 total) in just 13 games in 2022. Gay only made 58 stops in 16 games last season, however. The two-time Super Bowl starter has never seen a snap rate north of 70%, and given the Saints’ LB composition, that is unlikely to occur in New Orleans. Gay, 26, can hope to use this season to better his 2025 market.

Re-signings:

Notable losses:

Jettisoning a complex contract marked an appropriate ending for the Saints and Thomas, as the sides enjoyed a torrid start before an extension soon gave way to the former All-Pro becoming one of the NFL’s most injury-prone players. No team has signed Thomas, who would be going into an age-31 season after having missed 47 games during the 2020s. Last season actually brought Thomas’ highest participation rate (10 games) than any since 2019, but the Saints could not realistically continue to roster the eight-year veteran. It was a bit strange they circled back to Thomas in 2023.

Still holding the NFL’s single-season reception record (149), Thomas earned his five-year, $96.25MM extension ahead of that 2019 season. He posted back-to-back first-team All-Pro slates, becoming a lead cast member during the Saints’ late-2010s resurgence. Thomas joined Alvin Kamara as elite skill players in Brees’ twilight years, but the 2020 season provided an unfortunate harbinger of a freefall.

Multiple injuries, including an ankle malady, sidelined Thomas in 2020. He then missed all of 2021, which featured a dispute with the Saints regarding a recovery timetable. In 2022, Thomas played three games before a toe injury intervened. Despite Thomas’ 2023 contract being framed as a one-year deal — before yet another malady (knee) shut him down — the Saints are paying $11.2MM in 2024 dead money and $9.2MM in 2025. Thomas’ 565 career catches trail only Marques Colston in franchise history. Injuries derailed a potential Hall of Fame career.

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Offseason In Review: Tennessee Titans

August 15th, 2024 at 10:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

Barely a year after firing GM Jon Robinson, Amy Adams Strunk pulled the plug on the second high-profile staff extension she authorized back in 2022. Firing Mike Vrabel does not bring a full-on reset for the Titans, but the owner has given GM Ran Carthon the keys. The second-year decision-maker set out to load up his roster around Will Levis‘ rookie contract, leading to some high-priced free agency moves.

As the Titans look to pick up the pieces following a down (and injury-riddled) past two seasons, they also said goodbye to one of the greatest players in team history. With Derrick Henry gone, the Titans — who fired Robinson in December 2022 — have stripped their offense of nearly all the previous GM’s investments. This is Carthon’s show now, and the Titans will attempt to justify their Levis confidence this season.

Coaching/front office:

The Vrabel-Carthon-Adams Strunk partnership soured fast. Although Carthon said he was not in the meeting when Adams Strunk decided to fire Vrabel, the GM benefitted in the form of full roster control. Vrabel had maximized some moderately well-regarded Titans rosters, leading the team to four straight winning seasons and three playoff berths. Tennessee was believed to have a trade chip due to Vrabel’s standing in the game, but in not wanting to see trade talks impede an immediate coaching search, Adams Strunk went through with a much-discussed firing.

Adams Strunk had signed Vrabel and Robinson to extensions shortly after the 2021 season; she will be paying two HCs and two GMs for the foreseeable future. For all of Vrabel’s accomplishments — which includes a Coach of the Year honor, an AFC championship game venture, two division titles and a No. 1 seed — he butted heads with the team’s owner last season.

Carthon’s role became an issue for the coach, who suggested to Adams Strunk she name the ex-49ers exec assistant GM. Vrabel preferred former interim GM Ryan Cowden. This surely did not go over well with Carthon, even though he attempted to distance himself from the firing (however, a report of a rift surfaced late last year). Adams Strunk also considered firing Vrabel after the 2022 season, and she balked at the HC’s request for roster control.

Not exactly pleased with Vrabel’s trip to Foxborough during the Titans’ bye week last season (to be inducted into the Patriots Hall of Fame), Adams Strunk took a risk by jettisoning one of the NFL’s most respected leaders. But Vrabel’s inability to land another HC job during this year’s cycle undoubtedly affected his stock. He will join ex-mentor Bill Belichick on the 2025 coaching carousel. At 49, Vrabel may have a better chance of landing another gig.

The Titans’ Pierce effort did not get off the ground, and Callahan — after five seasons as a non-play-calling OC — became the pick soon after. An extension of the Sean McVay coaching tree (due to being a Zac Taylor lieutenant), Callahan played a central role in a Bengals ascent that included back-to-back AFC championship game appearances for the first time in franchise history.

Vrabel operated as a CEO coach; Adams Strunk’s next hire will have more in-game control. The former Joe Burrow mentor will have his first chance to call plays this season, injecting some uncertainty into the Titans’ proceedings. But they have one of the architects of a quality NFL turnaround. Adams Strunk will hope hiring Callahan, 40, will unlock some levels for a scuffling offense. Taylor being able to retain his coordinators (Callahan, Lou Anarumo) for five seasons was interesting given the team’s resurgence, but after being on the interview circuit for a bit, Callahan will get to work on what looks like a more difficult project, with Levis nowhere near the level of prospect Burrow was.

Wilson stands as the team’s top assistant. This gig comes a year after the Eagles passed over their secondary coach for DC, leading him to Baltimore. Mike Macdonald parlayed the Ravens’ No. 1-ranked defense into an HC job; three of his lieutenants — Wilson, Zach Orr and Anthony Weaver — landed DC positions. A DBs coach since 2015, Wilson paid his dues and will have a shot to be the top defensive voice in a team’s building. Meanwhile, Callahan’s play-calling role will limit Holz’s reach.

Wilson, 42, has a history with Carthon; both were in the Rams organization from 2015-16. Wilson then spent time with the Jets and Eagles, the second of his Philadelphia seasons a Super Bowl campaign. He then helmed Kyle Hamilton to an All-Pro season and Geno Stone to a breakout year.

Holz, 40, has traveled a less conventional path. He bounced between the quality control level and assistant wide receivers coach with the Raiders from 2012-21. After a year as UNLV’s OC, Holz reentered the NFL as the Jags’ pass-game coordinator. Not present for Trevor Lawrence‘s late-season surge in 2022, Holz instead rode an uneven Jags 2023 season into this gig. This hire did not garner much attention, but Holz’s lack of experience as an NFL position coach is notable.

Dot-connecting made predicting the next Titans O-line coach rather easy, though it took the Browns letting Bill Callahan out of his contract to make a reunion with his son possible. The Callahans have never coached on the same staff previously. One of the game’s best O-line coaches, Bill Callahan helped turn the Browns’ front into an elite unit and will now take over the development of first-rounders Peter Skoronski and JC Latham. This will mark a pivotal chapter for the former Raiders HC, who is now 68.

Trades:

Several teams checked on Sneed, whom the Chiefs allowed to seek a trade upon franchise-tagging him. Keeping with its Andy Reid-era approach of not extending or re-signing cornerbacks, Kansas City prioritized a Chris Jones windfall over a Sneed re-signing. Despite Sneed enjoying a borderline dominant contract year, the Chiefs were unable to land too much. The prospect of a team then needing to extend the former fourth-round pick at a high rate dented the trade value, though the team did ultimately collect a Day 2 pick for a player it counted on as a starter during both Super Bowl-winning seasons.

The report of the trade being finalized came shortly after a separate assessment indicating the Titans had cooled on Sneed. Tennessee was indeed one of the initial suitors, being aggressive here despite having given Chidobe Awuzie a hefty contract two weeks earlier. The Sneed deal came after the Titans had met with Tre’Davious White, who ended up with the Rams. The Titans’ early-round CB investments under Robinson either left in free agency after inconsistent tenures (Adoree’ Jackson, Kristian Fulton) or have seen injuries harpoon their careers (Caleb Farley). Carthon decided to start fresh, adding two new boundary starters in March.

One of the Chiefs’ run of CB discoveries under Steve Spagnuolo, Sneed allowed just a 51% completion rate as the closest defender (at 4.8 yards per target) and a 56.2 passer rating. The Louisiana Tech alum did not yield a touchdown last season, playing an elite level for a Chiefs team suddenly unable to rely on its star-studded offense. Sneed’s advanced coverage numbers were not as flashy during his 2021 and ’22 starter slates, but he might be the top CB find during the Chiefs’ Reid era.

The Titans rewarded the 27-year-old defender with the highest guarantee at signing among corners. Sneed’s guarantee checks in $7MM north of the next-closest CB, but his AAV ($19.1MM) sits eighth. Sneed did well to secure guarantees into Year 3, which will make it difficult for the Titans to get off this contract — should the versatile DB not pan out in Nashville — until 2027. With experience outside and in the slot, Sneed gives the Titans options. Sneed will probably stick on the boundary considering the season he just put together in that role, with former second-rounder Roger McCreary still in place in the slot.

Free agency additions:

Knowing he had a rookie-scale QB contract to build around, Carthon proceeded to increase the talent level — no matter the cost — by adding the top players at multiple positions. Overpays may well be present among this class, but the Titans had seen many of their starters become unreliable in recent years — due largely to injuries. Although Levis is far from a sure thing, the Titans’ free agency plan is dependent on the rookie making strides and this contract complementing FAs’ guaranteed salaries over the next two years.

Ridley was not the first of the free agents to sign, but his contract generated the most attention. Lurking as a Jaguars-Patriots duel formed for the former first-rounder’s services, the Titans came in with a deal that surprised many. With Mike Evans re-signing with the Buccaneers before free agency and the Colts tagging Michael Pittman Jr., WR-needy teams spent. The Gabe Davis and Darnell Mooney $13MM-per-year contracts illustrate that.

The Titans were determined to pay up for a more proven commodity, though Ridley’s age and inconsistent past somewhat undercuts his two 1,000-yard seasons. That did not end up mattering in this market; Ridley secured the fourth-most guaranteed money at signing among WRs.

Leaving the Falcons for mental health reasons early during the 2021 season, Ridley then incurred a full-season gambling suspension. This drained a chunk of his prime, and although he has only finished four NFL seasons, the 2018 first-rounder will turn 30 this year. The Titans only guaranteed two of Ridley’s base salaries, which will make a 2026 escape doable in the event this is indeed a regrettable overpay.

With DeAndre Hopkins again battling knee trouble, the Titans need Ridley to build on the 1,016-yard showing he delivered last season in Jacksonville. Ridley working out also would provide the Titans a bonus, as it cost the Jags third- and fifth-round picks to secure one season of the veteran wideout. For a Titans team having some experience with bad receiver decisions this decade (Julio Jones, A.J. Brown), this is certainly a gamble. But a case can also be made Ridley has room for growth after posting a 1,000-yard year following effectively two missed seasons.

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Offseason In Review: Jacksonville Jaguars

August 12th, 2024 at 9:59pm CST by Sam Robinson

Offseason optimism gave way to disappointment for the 2023 Jaguars, and coaching changes commenced. Though, the ’24 offseason turned into one centered on doubling down on the team’s core performers. Jacksonville set a franchise record with its Josh Hines-Allen extension and then broke it weeks later by re-upping Trevor Lawrence. Although the Jags may be at a crossroads, the payments they authorized point to a belief in the current direction.

After a late-season slide moved the Jags from first place in the AFC to 9-8 and watching the Texans now receive the offseason hype driven by a rookie-contract quarterback, Doug Pederson faces pressure in Year 3. While the former Super Bowl-winning HC elevated the team after the Urban Meyer disaster, he will need to restore the momentum the 2022 season’s second half brought.

Extensions and restructures:

The Jags have not won 10 games in a season since 2017. Prior to that, the last such instance came in 2007. As such, they have not assembled a core worthy of extensive extension rumors in a while. That changed this offseason, with a franchise tag coming out for Hines-Allen and Lawrence talks beginning in February. While the Jags did not discuss a Hines-Allen extension until he had played out his fifth-year option season, they followed the recent blueprint for first-round QBs and hammered out a deal with Lawrence before his fourth season. As a result, Lawrence joins Patrick Mahomes as the only NFLers signed into the 2030s.

Hines-Allen’s extension, agreed to in April, held the franchise record for a short time. Lawrence agreed to terms in June with a contract that looks less out of step following the subsequent Jordan Love and Tua Tagovailoa accords. Like the Packers and Dolphins, the Jaguars received no real discount and are betting Lawrence has more levels to unlock during his extension years.

The former No. 1 overall pick submitted inconsistency on his rookie contract, but flashes have emerged — most brightly during the 2022 stretch run that included a historic wild-card comeback win — to the point the Jags have more certainty in comparison to the Packers. But Lawrence must display notable growth if he is to live up to this record-tying contract.

The Jags matched Joe Burrow‘s $55MM AAV, though Lawrence’s deal checks in third among guarantees at signing ($142MM) and in total guarantees ($200MM). Love and Tagovailoa did not match the Jags QB here, but Jacksonville did better in terms of cost certainty by locking in its starter through 2030. Love and Tua, who were going into contract years, are signed through 2028. Lawrence followed Burrow and Justin Herbert as first-rounders with two years of control remaining to sign five-year extensions. This will allow the Jags a longer runway to defray their passer’s cap hits, making the deal more manageable and allowing for more action this offseason.

This is new territory for the franchise, which has seen a number of QB investments fail. Byron Leftwich never secured an extension, and Blaine Gabbert did not make it far into his rookie contract before being benched. Blake Bortles‘ exploits have been well chronicled here, and although the team authorized an $18MM-per-year deal shortly after the 2017 team’s journey to the AFC championship game, it bailed on the extension a year later to jump into an ill-advised Nick Foles free agency agreement. Lawrence arrived two years later and has yet to put it all together.

In terms of QBR, Lawrence has finished 28th, 17th and 17th from 2021-23. He memorably threw one touchdown pass from Halloween to New Year’s Day during a miserable 2021 rookie season, and the 2022 team started 3-7. The late-season surge that year generated 2023 hype, but Lawrence then sustained a litany of injuries — the last of those causing his first NFL absence — that impacted his play in a 14-interception season. While the Dolphins opted to wait until Tagovailoa’s fifth year for a larger sample size to form, the Jags moved full speed ahead with a pre-Year 4 re-up.

The Jags will bet on health and their new receiver investments boosting the fourth-year QB, whose contract contains three fully guaranteed years and most of the 2027 base salary guaranteed at signing. With Lawrence’s 2028 base salary and option bonus vesting one year early, the Jags are pot-committed for a lengthy period. This contract promises to make Lawrence at least the second-longest-tenured QB1 in team history. The franchise will eventually hope Lawrence surpasses Mark Brunell‘s nine-season tenure; this deal provides the runway.

Hines-Allen, who will separate himself from the Bills quarterback with an offseason name tweak, came through in a contract year with a franchise-record 17.5 sacks. This well-timed surge prompted a franchise tag and a commitment that makes the sixth-year edge rusher the second-highest-paid player at his position. Like Lawrence, the Jags have not seen Hines-Allen perform at a consistently high level; prior to 2023, he had not eclipsed 7.5 sacks in a season since his 2019 rookie year.

Resisting trade interest on the former top-10 pick prior to the 2022 deadline, the Pederson-Trent Baalke regime saw the Tom Coughlin-Dave Caldwell-era draftee spearhead the team’s pass rush last season. With Travon Walker not yet harnessing the skillset the Jags invested in atop the 2022 draft, Hines-Allen took over. He added 17 tackles for loss and two forced fumbles last season. The Jags based Hines-Allen’s extension on the terms the Giants authorized for trade pickup Brian Burns. Hines-Allen, 27, received $500K more guaranteed in total ($88MM) and $500K in additional guarantees at signing ($76.5MM).

It pays to deliver a breakthrough season at a premium position, and the Jags do have the advantage of Walker being tied to a rookie contract through 2025. Their ability to keep him at rookie terms through 2026 via the fifth-year option will be beneficial now that Hines-Allen is on a lucrative second contract.

Jacksonville was not through paying its cornerstone performers just yet. Despite the record-setting payouts to Hines-Allen and Lawrence, the team found the necessary space to pay its top cornerback. Campbell joined the Jags two rounds after Lawrence in 2021. While Meyer’s coaching stint was an unmitigated disaster, the team has made commitments to three of his draftees — counting Travis Etienne‘s fifth-year option. Campbell cashed in during an offseason in which the CB market settled a bit. No record-breaking deals occurred at the position, but Jacksonville’s top cover man followed Jaylon Johnson and L’Jarius Sneed in doing quite well in terms of contract structure.

Not extended after a franchise tag tag like the Bears and Titans corners, Campbell scored the seventh-highest CB contract ($19.13MM per year) to come in ahead of Johnson and Sneed. Campbell, 24, did receive slightly less guaranteed in total ($53.4MM) than the two tagged defenders, but he is in good position to earn every dollar. The team also agreed on a rolling guarantee structure with Campbell, who will see a 2026 option bonus become fully guaranteed in 2025 and more than half his 2027 base salary shift to a full guarantee by March 2026. This will provide security for the Georgia alum, who will see some new blood working alongside him this coming season.

Going into the final season of a three-year, $45MM deal, Oluokun took a pay cut — in terms of AAV — in exchange for security. The Jags gave the seventh-year tackling machine an additional $21.5MM fully guaranteed to drop his salary to $10MM per year. As the Jags cut three of the free agent defenders they signed under Baalke (Folorunso Fatukasi, Rayshawn Jenkins, Darious Williams), they prioritized the linebacker from the 2022 FA class.

Considering the production the 29-year-old defender has delivered (a staggering 549 tackles over the past three seasons), it was a bit odd he agreed to a reduction on his third contract. While the Jags had what turned out to be a momentous offseason on the contract front, they locked in the former Falcons starter at a favorable rate through 2027. This flew under the radar, and while the ILB market has taken a hit, the NFL’s 2021 and ’22 tackles leader passed on hitting free agency ahead of his age-30 season in 2025 to cash in with the Jags once again.

Free agency additions:

At wide receiver, this Jags offseason featured some moving parts. The team signed Davis when plans were in place to retain Calvin Ridley; the Davis deal also occurred with Zay Jones still on the roster. With both the 2023 regulars gone, the four-year Bills Stefon Diggs sidekick is now in place to try and expand the Jags’ long-range game. This had become a station-to-station offense, and the team’s free agency and draft efforts set out to adjust that.

Hyping up his own market, Davis (or a member of his camp) noted the former fourth-round pick paced the NFL in first-down rate, touchdown rate and average depth of target since 2020. Davis’ effort may have helped, as he secured a nice guarantee and AAV. The former fourth-round pick indeed excelled as a downfield option in Buffalo, though he undoubtedly benefited from defenses’ attention to Diggs and the talents of his quarterback. Josh Allen did find Davis consistently for scores, running that number to 27 in four seasons; that does not count the four-TD showing the 25-year-old weapon posted against the Chiefs in the 2021 divisional-round classic.

The Davis deal also emerged after the team showed interest in Mike Evans, but the career-long Buccaneer opted to stay in Tampa rather than test free agency. The player the Jags ended up with profiles as a boom-or-bust addition, but Davis should at least assist in spreading the field for underneath targets Christian Kirk and Evan Engram.

Not many players from Baalke’s 49ers teams remain in the NFL; Armstead, however, played a central role for a set of high-end San Francisco defenses during the ensuing Kyle Shanahan era. Offered a substantial pay cut by the 49ers, Armstead balked and found a healthy market. The Bills showed interest, and Texans HC DeMeco Ryans sought a reunion. Instead, Armstead opted to reunite with the GM who drafted him back in 2015.

Teaming with Nick Bosa to form perennially imposing 49ers defensive lines, Armstead started in two Super Bowls and four NFC championship games. He posted 10 sacks in 2019, DeForest Buckner‘s final San Francisco slate, and registered six in 2021. Over the past two seasons, however, injuries have hounded the stalwart D-lineman. Armstead is coming off offseason knee surgery, which still has him on the Jags’ active/PUP list. He hurt the same knee before the 2022 season, a campaign that featured eight missed games and a subsequent foot malady. Baalke’s big guarantee suggests a strong market formed, but the Jags winning these sweepstakes sets up a buyer-beware situation ahead of Armstead’s age-31 season.

Moving on from Williams and Jenkins, the Jags brought in replacements at midlevel prices. Although Darby debuted three years before Williams, he is a year younger (at 30). The CB’s health history adds to the uncertainty of this Baalke FA group.

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Offseason In Review: Baltimore Ravens

August 5th, 2024 at 9:31pm CST by Adam La Rose

With Lamar Jackson’s extension taken care of, the Ravens entered the 2023 season with renewed expectations. For the second time since Jackson took over as a full-time starter, Baltimore earned the AFC’s No. 1 seed and the superstar quarterback took home the MVP award. The team’s run came to an underwhelming end with a home loss to the Chiefs in the AFC title game, however.

In the months following that defeat, the Ravens have endured a number of notable departures at all levels of the organization. Changes on the field, along the sidelines and in the front office will leave Baltimore depending on several new faces in 2024. Many members of the team’s core remain in place, though, and as such the Ravens can be counted as a contender in the AFC North and beyond.

Trades:

Moses entered the offseason as a cut candidate, so it comes as little surprise he will not be back for 2024. Baltimore was able to add draft capital by sending him back to New York. The 33-year-old served as the Jets’ right tackle starter for 2021, a role he is set to reprise upon his return. The deal cleared $5.5MM in salary for the Ravens, though the team’s setup at the RT spot is one of several questions up front during training camp.

Moses has remained durable throughout his career; the three games he missed in 2023 were the most he was sidelined for since his rookie campaign (2014). The former third-rounder drew strong Pro Football Focus reviews for the fourth consecutive year last season, and he will be expected to provide consistent play in his second Jets stint. His ability to do so will determine his market in free agency next March on a New York re-up or a pact allowing him to join another new team.

Free agency additions:

General manager Eric DeCosta made it abundantly clear during the offseason running back additions would be a priority, and the 2024 free agent crop presented him with several options to choose from. Baltimore emerged as one of several suitors for Saquon Barkley, but it came as no surprise inside or outside the organization Henry was the team’s ultimate acquisition. In terms of pedigree, the latter comfortably represents the most notable new face brought in this offseason.

In the time since Jackson’s rookie campaign (2018), the league’s preeminent dual-threat quarterback ranks ninth in the league in rushing yards. Across that same span, Henry leads the NFL in production on the ground – by a margin of over 1,750 yards. The longtime Titan was named as a target of trade interest for the Ravens ahead of the 2023 deadline. An agreement was reportedly reached, with Tennessee’s ownership vetoing the trade.

Titans GM Ran Carthon has offered a denial on that point, but mutual interest existed between Henry and the Ravens in the build-up to free agency. The two-time rushing champion was also linked to the Cowboys, but Dallas’ decision to allow Tony Pollard to depart was not followed up by a Henry offer. The team was not active on the veteran market until a reunion with Ezekiel Elliott after the draft.

While Henry was surprised to not be on the Cowboys’ radar, he echoed the interest he had dating back to 2023 when reflecting on his Baltimore free agent process. The 30-year-old will receive all but $1MM of his guaranteed money this season, a sign of hesitancy on the Ravens’ part to make a long-term commitment. Henry has led the NFL in carries during each of his last four healthy campaigns, and he is positioned for a heavy workload once again in his new home.

Expectations will nevertheless be high for team and player with Baltimore having made by far the most high-profile backfield addition of the Jackson era. Henry’s acclimation to his new environment will be a critical factor in the Ravens’ ability to remain among the league’s most productive offenses.

As he foreshadowed, Eddie Jackson hit free agency after being let go by the Bears. He needed to wait until just before the start of training camp to find a deal, joining a number of veteran safeties in spending a long time on the open market. Another one – Jamal Adams – visited the Ravens, but he ultimately signed in Tennessee before Jackson was added.

The latter has started each of his 100 career games, but he will be competing for the No. 3 safety role in Baltimore. The Ravens used three-safety looks a number of times last year, and the departure of Geno Stone created a vacancy for the role behind Marcus Williams and Kyle Hamilton on the depth chart. Jackson, 30, struggled in coverage last season but former Bears teammate Roquan Smith endorsed his arrival in Baltimore. He will aim to parlay a change of scenery into a return to his previous form.

Board and Harty suffered a similar fate with their former teams this offseason, with both having been released in cost-cutting moves. The Patriots’ new regime does not value special teams as much as the previous one, and that stance paved the way for Board, 29, to return to the Ravens. A starting linebacker spot is not in play for Board, but he can reprise the integral third phase role he previously held with the team. Harty – a Baltimore native – earned All-Pro acclaim for his work in the return game during his rookie year (2019), and he is positioned to serve as the Ravens’ top returner.

Re-signings:

The Ravens have avoided big-money free agent additions along the edge during DeCosta’s tenure at the helm. Jadeveon Clowney joined Van Noy as a veteran brought in on a low-cost deal last offseason. The former matched his career high in sacks with the Ravens in 2023, while the latter set a new personal mark (nine) in only 14 games played and while logging just a 52% defensive snap share. Retaining at least one was a key 2024 priority.

Van Noy has remained consistent wherever he has played recently, totaling at least five sacks in each of the past five seasons (a stretch including three teams). The 33-year-old will have some stability during the latter stages of his career as he looks to replicate his success from 2023. Young options along the edge will face high expectations for Baltimore moving forward, but Van Noy will have a key role to play as well.

Agholor joined the Ravens on a one-year deal last offseason, but the presence of void years made an extension necessary for him to be retained through 2024 without dead money charges accruing. The former first-rounder operated as a complementary option in the receiving corps (one which, per usual, was not a unit built on a high-volume passing attack). Agholor’s 77.8% catch percentage in 2023 was by far the best of his career, and he should remain in a rotational capacity behind Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman on the WR depth chart for at least one more year.

Josh Johnson has had multiple stints with the Ravens as part of his whirlwind tour around several levels of pro football. The 38-year-old will occupy the backup role in 2024, positioning him for regular season game action in the event Jackson misses time. Johnson has made six appearances since 2021, with his lone start in that span coming during his most recent Ravens tenure.

Not unlike Van Noy, Maulet established himself as a veteran exceling in his role to a greater degree than expected during his debut Baltimore campaign. The former UDFA matched his career highs in pass deflections (five) and sacks (two) last year despite missing three games and logging a higher snap share on special teams than on defense. The Ravens have a number of other cornerback options on the perimeter and in the slot, but Maulet should manage to remain a regular contributor in the latter capacity for at least the short-term future.

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Offseason In Review: Denver Broncos

July 31st, 2024 at 10:30pm CST by Sam Robinson

The quest to find a long-term quarterback has dominated Broncos discourse since Peyton Manning‘s 2016 retirement, and while the organization’s failures here were not particularly costly during the initial years following the all-time great’s exit, the most recent effort certainly was. As a result of the Russell Wilson tenure, the Broncos became a punching bag for a season before seeing some 2023 improvements drop their 2024 draft slot. Now, they are in Year 1 of a dead money abyss unlike anything any team has encountered.

Bailing on Wilson’s pricey extension set a record that will be difficult to break for the foreseeable future, and the Broncos are taking another swing at quarterback — this one handpicked by Sean Payton. Making other notable subtractions and contract adjustments after making strides under Payton, the Broncos will attempt to field a competitive team despite Wilson’s contract consuming a significant chunk of their salary cap.

Extensions and restructures:

The Broncos are still using the phonetically interesting Payton-Paton power duo. GM George Paton was the point man behind three of this decade’s worst decisions — the Nathaniel Hackett hire, the Wilson trade and then the QB’s extension — but the group he drafted in 2021 has developed nicely. Paton plucked starters Patrick Surtain, Javonte Williams, Baron Browning and Jonathon Cooper in his first draft, but the biggest success story is probably a third-round guard from the Division III ranks. Meinerz has been a regular starter in Denver since midway through his rookie year, and he became the first Paton-era draftee to see his contract extended.

Meinerz, 25, impressed at the 2021 Senior Bowl — a vital component of his rise, as the COVID-19 pandemic nixed the non-Division I-FBS levels’ 2020 seasons — and replaced an injured Graham Glasgow in 2021. Meinerz beat out Glasgow for the Broncos’ right guard gig in 2022 and graded as a top-10 guard, per Pro Football Focus, over the past two seasons. Excelling in the run game, Meinerz was probably the Broncos’ top offensive player during the Wilson years. The team will bet on upside, as no Pro Bowls are yet on the Wisconsin-Whitewater alum’s resume.

Although Louis Vasquez rewarded the Broncos, the team has struggled with guard payments over the past several years. Neither Glasgow nor Ronald Leary justified their high price tags under John Elway, and the Payton-Paton pair has now doubled down at guard. The team gave Ben Powers a four-year, $52MM deal in 2023. The ex-Raven appears locked in for at least two more seasons, as the team restructured his contract to create 2024 cap space. Bo Nix‘s rookie contract stands to help the Broncos afford big payments elsewhere on the roster, though Wilson’s $83MM-plus in dead money from 2024-25 undercuts that advantage.

Denver paying Meinerz also clouds Garett Bolles‘ future. Meinerz’s terms match Denver’s left tackle for the most lucrative O-line contract in team history, and with right tackle Mike McGlinchey also on an upper-crust contract at his position, it is fair to wonder if Bolles is entering his final season with the team.

Bolles, 32, is in a contract year and has angled for a second extension. No known negotiations have transpired. The Meinerz payment points to the Broncos rolling with three pricey O-line contracts and looking for Bolles’ successor next year. For now, Denver is the rare team with four eight-figure O-line deals on its payroll. This is in step with Payton’s approach in New Orleans, where early-round O-line draft choices and extensions were commonplace.

Sutton, 28, reemerged as Denver’s top wide receiver last season, overtaking Jerry Jeudy as Wilson’s favorite target. Snaring some snazzy touchdown receptions, Sutton played a central role in the Broncos’ five-game midseason win streak. With Jeudy traded, Sutton stands as more important regarding Nix’s development. Days before the Broncos made their Nix pick, Sutton lobbied for a contract adjustment. The Broncos have their top target at a below-market rate thanks to an extension (four years, $60MM) authorized back in 2021 — shortly before the 2022 offseason changed the position’s landscape — and the team did not give in.

Denver waited out Sutton, who showed for minicamp after missing the offseason program, and incentives became the endgame here. The team gave the seventh-year vet a $1.7MM incentive package, reminding of the Chargers’ low-level resolution with Austin Ekeler last year. Sutton can increase his earnings to $15.2MM this year but remains tied to a contract with just $2MM guaranteed for 2024 and no guarantees in place for 2025.

As a vested veteran, the rest of Sutton’s $13MM base salary will become guaranteed just before Week 1. But the long-running trade candidate — teams called on the former second-rounder in April and figure to again soon — was unable to secure a notable contract update, putting the pre-Payton pickup’s long-term Denver future in doubt.

Patrick, 30, has managed to hang around despite two season-nullifying injuries. After serving as a key target for Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater, Patrick did not play a down with Wilson. After summer ACL and Achilles tears, the former UDFA — the second-longest-tenured Bronco, behind Bolles — accepted a pay cut down to the veteran minimum to stay. Patrick signed a three-year, $30MM extension days before the Broncos paid Sutton. The Broncos brought in Patrick under Elway, and despite his back-to-back 700-plus-yard seasons from 2020-21, the 6-4 wideout — healthy once again — is a wild card in this revamped position group.

Trades:

Rumblings of the Jeudy-Sutton tandem — after four years and incessant trade rumors together — separating emerged early this offseason. Jeudy trade rumors date back to the 2022 deadline, and they followed the former first-round pick into the 2023 offseason and up to last year’s deadline. The Broncos hoped the Elway-era draftee could help Wilson rebound in 2023, and they set a lofty asking price (a first-rounder) in trades last year. Before the deadline, Denver received an offer involving third- and fifth-round picks. Amid their midseason turnaround that included a win over the Chiefs just before the deadline, the Broncos declined and ultimately moved on for less months later.

The Browns are still betting on the 2020 first-rounder unlocking upside that did not materialize in Denver. Jeudy flashed crafty route-running chops and delivered a strong finish to the 2022 season but ended his Broncos tenure 0-for-4 in 1,000-yard seasons. In the Alabama alum’s defense, the Broncos featured five play-callers (three in 2022) and mostly below-average quarterback play during the inconsistent wideout’s career.

The Browns will pair Jeudy with Amari Cooper, and the AFC North club went as far as to extend Jeudy (three years, $52.5MM; $41MM guaranteed) and provide only incentives for Cooper, whose contract issue ended similarly to Sutton’s. Marvin Mims, who made some noise as a deep threat as a rookie but could not earn a steady role, will be given a good chance to replace Jeudy as a starter.

As the Jets attempted to clear salary to make room for Haason Reddick‘s contract, they dealt the Broncos a quality starter for next to nothing during the draft. Acquired in a salary-dump deal, Franklin-Myers became a more favorable Broncos asset after redoing his contract (now at two years and $15MM; $8MM guaranteed) post-trade. The Jets offered Franklin-Myers — a three-year starter for the team — a pay cut, but the seventh-year vet confirmed it was at a lower rate compared to his new Broncos salary.

The Jets had given Franklin-Myers a four-year, $55MM extension early during the 2021 season, and he started 52 games with the team. The former Rams draftee saw time both inside and outside in Robert Saleh‘s 4-3 scheme; in Vance Joseph‘s 3-4 setup, Franklin-Myers will line up as a D-end. Producing six- and five-sack seasons in 2021 and ’22, respectively, Franklin-Myers registered 48 QB hits over the past three years. He profiles as a low-risk upgrade up front and will form a veteran-laden D-line with Allen and D.J. Jones.

Paton had said the Broncos planned to acquire a veteran to join Jarrett Stidham, and weeks after the team looked into Sam Darnold, the trade for Wilson was finalized. Conflicting reports about a Broncos Darnold offer emerged, but the former Jets starter preferred the Vikings. After Minnesota gave Darnold a one-year, $10MM deal, Denver reached a salary-split trade agreement for Wilson.

Wilson fared worse than Darnold did in New York — to the point the Jets benched the former No. 2 overall pick three times from 2022-23 — and exited the offseason program as a long-shot candidate to land even the Broncos’ backup job. The Broncos would eat $2.73MM in dead money by cutting Wilson; they would take on $2MM by releasing Stidham. A Stidham cut would, however, save the team $5MM.

After a year and change in Payton’s system, Stidham looks to have a leg up on the erratic BYU product. A No. 2 overall pick being waived before his fourth season would represent an ignominious start to a career and place Wilson on the short list of biggest QB busts in NFL history.

Free agency additions:

A year after big-ticket deals for McGlinchey, Powers and Allen, Denver — navigating historic cap consequences — operated conservatively in free agency. Its most notable 2024 expense was a safety that will be expected to replace Justin Simmons (or try). The Dolphins took Jones in the 2020 second round and used him as a full-time starter in 2021 and ’22, but the Jevon Holland back-line tandem partner lost a competition to DeShon Elliott last summer.

Elliott started over Jones under Vic Fangio, though the former Broncos HC used Jones in three-safety looks. Elliott outsnapped Jones 967-542 last year, but the latter graded as a top-20 safety in PFF’s view. Also showing a blitz acumen under Brian Flores with five sacks in 2021, Jones will team with two ex-Texas Longhorn teammates — Caden Sterns and P.J. Locke — in Denver.

Spending nearly his entire career as an auxiliary Jared Goff target, Reynolds looks to be both insurance against Patrick not resembling his pre-injury version and Mims and fourth-rounder Troy Franklin not developing as the team hoped. Reynolds’ $4.5MM guarantee suggests a clear role. Not as explosive as Jeudy, Reynolds ranked 85th among wideouts in ESPN’s open score metric last season. The ex-Rams regular is known more for his long-range skills and run-blocking chops than being a pure separator, but he did tally 608 yards and a career-high five touchdowns last season. Though, Reynolds’ campaign ended with two drops during Detroit’s NFC championship game collapse.

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Offseason In Review: Houston Texans

July 28th, 2024 at 10:09pm CST by Sam Robinson

Although more stunning turnarounds have occurred, the Texans’ 2023 ascent was particularly notable because of their roster-building approach under Nick Caserio. Outside of some 2023 payments along the offensive line, the GM had spent little during his tenure — one that featured numerous short-term deals for middling veterans. C.J. Stroud‘s emergence shifted the Texans’ car out of neutral last year, and their 2024 offseason reflected the opportunity the Offensive Rookie of the Year provides.

Gifted with a rookie-scale QB contract for at least the next two seasons, Caserio put forth by far his most active offseason by making multiple trades for skill-position starters and signing a host of defenders in free agency. Tabbed as a potential Super Bowl threat despite Caserio having made multiple HCs one-and-dones and having traded the team’s previous franchise quarterback during a rocky tenure, the Texans gave Stroud a much better roster to lead in 2024.

Trades:

Diggs wore out his welcome in Buffalo, and the second half of his 2023 season no longer justified the payment or the occasional headache. The Bills, however, took on a non-quarterback record dead money hit ($31.1MM) to move on; the Texans dangling a future second-rounder changed the AFC East champs’ mind. Buffalo has shifted to a receiving corps featuring considerable uncertainty; Houston suddenly has a locked-and-loaded top three with Diggs set to join Nico Collins and Tank Dell.

For much of last season, Stroud did not have many places to turn outside of Collins and Dalton Schultz. The Texans still made this work, inviting intrigue about how their Bobby Slowik-run offense will look now that Stroud has Dell back and set to join one of this period’s best route runners. The Texans having looked into Keenan Allen weeks before acquiring Diggs highlights a type of wideout the team identified, as the longtime Charger-turned-Bears addition joins Diggs in being among this era’s best separators. Diggs, 30, being more than a year younger than Allen helped create a higher price tag.

Diggs played a central role in Josh Allen morphing from raw talent to megastar. Diggs and DeAndre Hopkins were moved on the same day in March 2020. Buffalo needed to included a first-round pick to pry Diggs from Minnesota, while the Bill O’Brien-as-GM Texans did not collect a first from the Cardinals for Hopkins. The Bills ended up with the better asset, as Diggs ripped off four 1,100-yard seasons — two surpassing 1,400 — and missed only one game while with Buffalo. It is worth wondering how Allen will look without his No. 1 target, and with Diggs likely having multiple quality seasons left, how this trade affects Stroud’s trajectory will be a lead 2024 storyline.

The Texans agreeing to remove the final three seasons from a team-friendly contract is, at least, worth questioning. Only $3.5MM in guaranteed money remained on Diggs’ Bills-built extension beyond 2024, and the Texans shifted that figure to the ’24 season and turned the trade pickup into a 2025 free agent-to-be. The Bills made Diggs play two seasons on his Vikings-constructed contract before giving him a four-year, $96MM extension in 2022. This profiled as a flexible contract the Texans could have moved had Diggs not proved to be a fit in Slowik’s offense, but they now face the prospect of the asset leaving in 2025 without any compensation coming back.

A franchise tag will be prohibitive, checking in north of $27MM, and because Houston adjusted the contract, no compensatory pick would come back if Diggs leaves in free agency. While Houston created some cap space with the move, the team added void years to do so. If Diggs leaves in free agency next year, the Texans would be hit with $16.6MM in dead money. This represented an odd step, and while it was framed as a motivational tool for Diggs due to the 2025 payday that would await, it does not seem that outweighed the advantage the Texans would have by leaving his contract untouched.

Houston also took the step of preventing a Mixon release. Not only did the Texans send the Bengals a late-round pick, they gave an eighth-year back $13MM guaranteed at signing. Aaron Jones, who has been a more complete back than Mixon since going off the board three rounds later in 2017, only fetched a one-year, $7MM Vikings pact. Dalvin Cook, whose 1,585 career touches trail his 2017 draft classmate’s count by nearly 300, is out of the league presently. After the Bengals gave Mixon a substantial pay cut last summer, the former second-round pick did very well for himself this offseason.

Mixon’s 1,854 career touches are the third-most among active RBs — behind Ezekiel Elliott (2,421) and Derrick Henry (2,185). At 28, Mixon is two years younger than Henry and nearly two years Jones’ junior. But the Texans are making a notable bet here, as only Saquon Barkley ($26MM) and D’Andre Swift ($14MM) secured more at signing than Mixon did this offseason.

The Mixon trade came to pass after the Texans offered Barkley more than $11MM per year, illustrating Caserio’s commitment to upgrading in the backfield after the 2023 team ranked 22nd in rushing (29th in yards per carry). Barkley said the Texans piqued his interest early, but it appears likely Houston did not match Philadelphia’s $26MM guarantee at signing. The Texans also pursued Swift and Tony Pollard. Both Barkley alternatives are better in the passing game compared to Mixon, though they offer less between-the-tackles muscle.

A four-time 1,000-yard rusher, Mixon did accumulate 376 receiving yards last season and 441 in 14 games in 2022. He has not averaged more than 4.1 yards per carry since 2018. The Texans, who saw Dameon Pierce take a notable step back last season, will bet on the Oklahoma product having some gas left in the tank. The Bengals appear to be betting against that, deeming Mixon not worth a $3MM bonus due on the back end of his reworked two-year, $11.5MM deal.

The rare constant on all three Caserio-era Texans defenses, Collins signed three contracts in three years. The most recent — a two-year, $23MM extension — preceded a five-sack season complete with a career-high 18 QB hits. A former Cowboys second-round pick, Collins became one of Caserio’s biggest hits during a period featuring many dart throws on midlevel vets. The Texans ended up overhauling their DT crew, and Collins will play his age-29 season in San Francisco.

Extensions and restructures:

Unlike a few other teams with high-end receiver extensions to complete, the Texans did well to beat the Vikings to the punch. Houston extending Collins days before Minnesota reset the market with its Justin Jefferson windfall helped keep this contract more in line with those Deebo Samuel and D.K. Metcalf signed in 2022. Had the Texans waited for Jefferson’s guarantee avalanche to shake the lower tiers of the market, they probably would have needed to go beyond $32.12MM fully guaranteed and $52.12MM guaranteed in total.

A former third-round pick, Collins delivered one of this decade’s stronger WR breakthroughs by ripping off a 1,297-yard, eight-touchdown showing in Year 3. This came after the Michigan product failed to eclipse 500 yards in a season during the two Davis Mills-led campaigns. Tied to Texans teams largely playing out the string in the wake of the Deshaun Watson mess, Collins became a pivotal part of a Slowik attack that depended on him once Dell went down. Collins’ 191- and 195-yard games sans Dell helped Houston to the AFC South crown, and the team did well to finish this accord when it did.

Collins, 25, came in above Metcalf and Samuel in terms of AAV but still sits as the league’s ninth-highest-paid receiver. That number will continue to drop, as players like CeeDee Lamb and Brandon Aiyuk are rewarded, and the Texans undoubtedly benefited from Collins not being a steady producer during Tim Kelly and Pep Hamilton‘s OC seasons.

Joining Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard by landing a three-year extension will give Collins another payday opportunity in his late 20s. For now, the Texans can comfortably fit this contract — and Diggs’ since-adjusted deal — due to the bargain Stroud brings while tied to rookie terms.

Free agency additions:

Showing interest in retaining Jonathan Greenard, the Texans effectively completed a swap with the Vikings during the legal tampering period. Greenard was one of free agency’s first commitments, joining the Vikings hours into the tampering period. Hunter-to-Houston rumors did not emerge for nearly a day, and the Texans needed to fend off the Colts for the productive edge rusher. Indianapolis is believed to have offered more money in total, but Hunter — who played high school football in the Houston area — chose a return to Texas on a contract that comes nearly fully guaranteed.

The guarantee percentage Hunter secured is rare for contracts this pricey, but after angling to reach free agency for a bit, the former Mike Zimmer-era Minnesota staple both collected a high guarantee and the chance to hit the market again at just 31. Still 29 despite going into Year 10, Hunter’s deal will overlap with the two additional seasons Stroud must be kept on a rookie pact. This qualifies as a splurge for Caserio, who did almost nothing of the sort during his early years as Texans GM.

After neck and pec injuries sidetracked Hunter from 2020-21, he rebounded to elevate the 2022 Vikings to a surprising 13-4 record and then built on that to create a big market. Still pursuing a playoff spot, the Vikings opted against trading Hunter at the 2023 deadline. He ripped off an NFL-most 23 tackles for loss last season to go with a career-high 16.5 sacks. After Greenard delivered his best season under DeMeco Ryans, Hunter brings both an extensive production history — after becoming the NFL’s youngest player to reach 50 sacks and earning four Pro Bowl nods in Minneapolis — and age-related stability opposite Will Anderson Jr. Hunter’s history should help the Defensive Rookie of the Year see better matchups.

An injury-shortened 2022 season limited Al-Shaair’s market, but the former Fred Warner/Dre Greenlaw sidekick created more interest after a prolific Titans season. Al-Shaair, who found another 49ers outpost under Ryans after following GM Ran Carthon to Tennessee, racked up 163 tackles — the most by a Titan this century — and two sacks in 2023. Al-Shaair was in San Francisco for both of Ryans’ DC seasons but played under the current Texans HC during his two years spent as 49ers ILBs coach. This helped explain why the former UDFA sought the Texans in free agency, and after not putting much money into the linebacker spot from 2021-23, Houston upped its investment to fortify its defensive second level.

Despite ranking sixth against the run last season, the Texans rebooted at defensive tackle. They pursued Arik Armstead, but the nine-year 49er opted to rejoin the GM that drafted him — Trent Baalke — and sign with the Jaguars. Houston also showed interest in Christian Wilkins but may well have exited that race once the Raiders offered a staggering guarantee ($82.75MM). Lower-cost cogs signed up instead, with Autry’s deal more of a one-year contract with an option. The Jags had released Fatukasi, while Settle was a rotational presence in Buffalo.

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Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Bengals

July 20th, 2024 at 10:10pm CST by Adam La Rose

Joe Burrow’s health was a talking point leading into the 2023 campaign as he dealt with a calf strain. That ailment gave way to a season-ending elbow injury midway through the year, one which added to his missed time and hindered the Bengals’ playoff push.

Cincinnati still managed a 9-8 record, but it was insufficient for a wild-card berth. The team identified improvements in the secondary as a priority, although changes on the other side of the ball have proven to be a key factor in the past few months as well. Alterations along the offensive line and at the skill positions (more of which are likely on hand next offseason) have left the Bengals with several new faces to integrate as Burrow and Co. prepare to navigate another long list of AFC contenders.

Trades:

Mixon’s Bengals future was in question last offseason, with his cap figure being weighed against the prospect of a transition to a younger setup in the backfield. Team and player reached agreement on a restructure during which the 27-year-old took a notable pay cut. Before a 2024 roster bonus was due, Cincinnati elected to move forward with a Mixon release.

The team ended up reversing course, though, with Houston taking on the veteran as a new lead back. The Texans showed heavy interest in making a backfield addition representing an upgrade over Devin Singletary, including a lucrative Saquon Barkley offer. Tony Pollard and D’Andre Swift were also on the team’s radar, but Mixon will carry the load for at least the short-term future.

Mixon, who became the third-leading rusher in Bengals history last season, agreed to a two-year, $19.75MM extension upon arrival in Houston. As a result of that agreement (which includes $13MM in guarantees), the Oklahoma product is under contract through 2026 to begin the second phase of his career. The Texans’ offense features plenty of pass-catching options, but Mixon should be a factor in his new team’s bid to repeat the success of 2023.

For the Bengals, life after the former second-rounder will mark a notable change in the backfield. In each of his healthy seasons since 2018, Mixon logged no fewer than 210 carries, topping 1,200 scrimmage yards during each of those campaigns. Cincinnati will have a much more cost-efficient running back setup moving forward, but the team’s production in the ground game will face question marks.

Free agency additions:

With respect to PFR’s top 50 free agent list, the Bengals withstood many more losses than additions this spring. Rankins is nevertheless a notable new face along the defensive interior. The 30-year-old delivered a strong showing during his one-and-done Texans campaign, racking up six sacks. That figure represented his highest total since 2018 and included a three-sack performance against Cincinnati. He will be counted on to deliver an impact in the pass-rush department as a central member on the team’s new-look defensive line.

Rankins received an offer averaging $12MM per year from the Texans before deciding to join the Bengals. The former Saints first-rounder logged a consistent workload during his Jets stint (2021-22), and his uptick in production in Houston will lead to high expectations on his fourth career team. Pairing Trey Hendrickson with a dependable interior rush contributor could help a defense which ranked 17th in sacks last season. Cincinnati struggled against the run in 2023, though, and the team’s new faces up front will play a key role in determining if improvement takes place.

The Bengals finished mid-pack through the air in 2023 despite Burrow’s missed time. Their largest issue on offense was the ground game (90 rushing yards per contest, 31st in the league). With Mixon no longer in the picture, increased attention will be paid to Chase Brown in addition to Moss moving forward. The latter operated in a rotational capacity during the start of his career, but the midseason 2022 trade which moved him from the Bills to the Colts resulted in an uptick in playing time.

For two different stretches last season, Moss operated as Indianapolis’ lead back. The 26-year-old received double-digit carries eight times in 2023, and his 183 total attempts were comfortably the most of his career. Undersized at 5-9, the 205-pounder will be tasked with operating between the tackles for Cincinnati to complement Chase’s speed. Moss did not receive as lucrative of a deal as many other free agent backs this offseason, but his addition could prove to be a highly cost-effective one if he translates his Colts success to his new home.

Entering the offseason, Cincinnati planned to make a short-term addition at right tackle while also seeking out a more permanent solution at the position via the draft. That approach led to a Mekhi Becton visit prior to the Brown signing. Like he did during his first Patriots stint, Brown manned the blindside over the past two seasons upon returning to New England. The 31-year-old blocker struggled in 2022 but when healthy last season, he rebounded in terms of PFF evaluation (80.2 overall grade). He also has experience at the right tackle spot he will play with the Bengals.

Brown’s deal contains incentives (just as his Patriots pacts did), so his play in Cincinnati will carry financial implications. With Burrow’s health remaining a top organizational priority, pass protection at both tackle spots will continue to be an area of scrutiny for the Bengals. Brown’s long-term replacement may very well be in the organization, but the 10th-year veteran could provide an experienced option during at least the start of the campaign.

After breakdowns in the secondary became a consistent problem for the 2023 Bengals, it came as no surprise that additions at the safety spot were deemed a priority. Stone, 25, established himself as a strong special-teamer early in his Baltimore career, but he took on a much larger defensive workload this past season. The former seventh-rounder logged an 82% snap share and translated that into an AFC-leading seven interceptions and nine pass deflections. A repeat of that ball production would certainly be welcomed in a Jessie Bates-less defensive backfield.

Bell landed a three-year Panthers deal last offseason, but after a single campaign with the team he was released in a cost-shedding move. That paved the way for an inexpensive return to Cincinnati, one which could see him reprise his former starting role. With recent first-rounder Dax Hill transitioning from safety to corner, the play of Stone and Bell on the backend will go a long way in determining how much the Bengals rebound from 2023’s struggles against the pass.

Re-signings:

Taking a flier on Gesicki will give the Bengals a new look at tight end from a pass-catching standpoint, but the team will continue to depend on familiar faces at the position. Sample has not come close to matching his playing time or production from 2020, but he has remained a staple in Cincinnati’s offense in the years since. The 28-year-old also contributes on special teams, and third-phase responsibilities will no doubt continue moving forward as Hudson looks to once again serve as a complementary receiving target.

The same holds true for Irwin, who has spent his entire five-year career in Cincinnati. The former UDFA scored four touchdowns on only 15 receptions in 2022, and he followed that up with personal bests in receptions (25) and yards (316) last season. He could take another step forward in 2024 and in doing so provide the Bengals with cost-effective production in the passing game. Considering the team’s current (and future) financial situation at the receiver spot, effective depth will be critical.

Notable losses:

Once the Bengals added Orlando Brown Jr. in free agency last offseason, the writing seemed to be on the wall for Williams. The former first-rounder rescinded a trade request and accepted a right tackle assignment for 2023, once again serving as a full-time starter. Williams underwhelmed in terms of PFF evaluation (for the second year in a row), which no doubt hurt his market value and hindered his chances of finding a left tackle gig with a new team.

The 26-year-old nevertheless secured $30MM on a two-year Cardinals deal. Arizona will move Paris Johnson Jr. to the blind side in 2024, a transition which comes as little surprise considering his pedigree and college experience. That will leave Williams to continue handling right tackle responsibilities in his new home while the Bengals move in a different direction

Reader’s torn quad – the second of his career – ended his Bengals tenure and threatened to reduce his market value. Cincinnati hoped to keep its four-year DT starter in the fold, but it soon became clear he would at least explore other opportunities. The 30-year-old enjoyed a consistent spell in Cincinnati (when healthy), proving his $53MM Bengals pact to be a solid investment on the team’s part.

To little surprise, Reader was unable to match that figure on his third career contract. His Lions visit ultimately yielded a two-year deal, but its maximum value ($27.25MM) only includes $7.4MM guaranteed at signing. The former fifth-rounder’s health and performance in Detroit will determine whether or not he remains with the Lions for 2025. Likewise, uncertainty surrounds the veteran and rookie additions the Bengals brought in to replace him.

With Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both in need of new deals, it became clear entering the 2023 season that Boyd’s next contract would likely come from a new team. Upon hitting the market, several teams were listed as suitors. One of those was his hometown Steelers, with which a mutual interest existed for working out an agreement. The Steelers were not willing to increase the value of the initial offer made to the Pittsburgh native, though, steering Boyd in a new direction.

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