HEADLINES

Offseason Outlook: Dallas Cowboys

February 12th, 2015 at 6:07pm CST by Zachary Links

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Tony Romo, QB: $27,773,000
  2. Tyron Smith, T: $13,039,000
  3. Brandon Carr, CB: $12,717,000
  4. Henry Melton, DT: $9,250,250
  5. Jason Witten, TE: $8,512,000
  6. Sean Lee, LB: $5,450,000
  7. Morris Claiborne, CB: $5,175,069
  8. Orlando Scandrick, CB: $4,351,250
  9. Barry Church, S: $3,250,000
  10. Mackenzy Bernadeau, G: $2,824,168

Notable coaching moves:

Draft:

Other:

Overview

As a youngster, did you grow up dreaming of becoming a right tackle? Is there a Fathead replica of your team’s starting left guard overlooking your couch? No, offensive lineman aren’t celebrated as much as the players at skill positions, but we all know how vital the o-line really is. After years of building the unit, the Cowboys’ offensive line helped propel them to the top of the NFC East.

Tony Romo, who has had his ups and downs in recent years, finished the year as the No. 6 quarterback in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). DeMarco Murray took advantage of those truck-sized holes created by the o-line and rushed his way to a career year. Dez Bryant cemented himself as one of the very best (if not the best) receivers in the NFL, lighting up opposing cornerbacks on a weekly basis. Meanwhile, the defense went from last in the league in 2013 to 19th overall in 2014 – not exactly the 1985 Bears, but a step up from being the “-Allas” Cowboys.

The Cowboys have reason to believe in 2015, but their electric offensive duo is eligible for free agency and there are numerous holes to address.

Positions Of Need

The Cowboys’ needs will depend heavily on what happens with Bryant and Murray and, by all accounts, the wide receiver is far more likely to return to the Cowboys than the running back. If Murray is not retained (we’ll discuss his situation in depth in a bit), there are a number of options that Dallas can turn to. It’s been long rumored that Jerry Jones would love to land Texas native Adrian Peterson. In fact, the two chatted over the summer and reportedly discussed the possibility.

“Well, I understand, Adrian,” Jones said. “I’d like that, too … Well, I love your story. I love your daddy’s story. I’ve always respected what you’ve been about. I’ve always been a fan of yours.”

Peterson would later downplay the sweet nothings whispered between the two but the mutual interest is abundantly clear. The Vikings, meanwhile, hold the cards and they could still push for 100 cents on the dollar in spite of AD’s off-field troubles from last year. Or, they might not be willing to discuss Peterson at all with Dallas. The last time these two franchises consummated a deal involving a franchise running back, the Cowboys came out ahead by a mile.

Alternatively, the Cowboys could turn to the draft for their next starting tailback. Georgia star Todd Gurley once seemed destined to be a top pick, but his 2014 ACL injury could put him within range for Dallas later in the first round. Beyond Gurley, Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon and Indiana’s Tevin Coleman are among the best backs on the board and both have drawn comparisons to Murray for their running style. In free agency, Dallas will find notables like Mark Ingram and the oft-injured Ryan Mathews. Ingram, of course, had a breakout season with the Saints in 2014 that was derailed a bit in the middle by a broken hand.

It sure doesn’t sound like the Cowboys will have to replace Bryant, but if they do, guys like Randall Cobb, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Brandon Marshall, Michael Crabtree, Mike Wallace, and more could be available on the open market. At this point, if Dallas does anything at wide receiver, it seems more likely that they would look into supporting players with Cole Beasley (restricted) and Dwayne Harris (unrestricted) in limbo.

On the other side of the ball, Dallas could have a ton of work to do with defensive linemen Nick Hayden, Anthony Spencer, and George Selvie all out-of-contract. Meanwhile, if Henry Melton remains on the roster through the first day of the 2015 league year, a three-year extension worth $8MM annually and $9MM guaranteed will kick in. Melton appeared to be a mortal lock to remain under that contract at one point last season, but finishing the season on IR has thrown that in flux.

Bruce Carter, Justin Durant, and Rolando McClain are all headed towards free agency, which could lead the Cowboys to go shopping for linebackers. Cornerback could also be a need for the Cowboys if Brandon Carr isn’t willing to restructure his deal.

Key Free Agents

Re-signing Bryant will be the Cowboys’ No. 1 priority this offseason. While there was a good amount of dialogue between the wide receiver and owner Jerry Jones, Bryant ultimately didn’t get an offer he liked enough during the season as he opted to gamble on himself. That bet paid off big time as Bryant turned in a career year with 88 receptions, 1,320 yards, and 16 touchdowns. Needless to say, keeping Bryant for the long-term won’t be cheap, and that means that the franchise tag is a distinct possibility. At an estimated $13MM, the franchise tag isn’t a drop in the bucket either, but Jones won’t hesitate to do it if the two sides can’t come to an agreement on a new deal. Of course, the very threat of the franchise tag could light a fire underneath Bryant’s camp.

Jerry loves his stars, but he’s apparently gun-shy about giving Bryant a big long-term deal because of his off-field issues. Bryant’s reps will likely seek a deal worth $12-14MM in average annual value, making the franchise tag something of a no-brainer. The Cowboys could be persuaded into making a multiyear pact happen if they get a break in guaranteed dollars, but I don’t think they’ll mind Bryant playing for his money once again.

Unfortunately, the game of football isn’t as fair to running backs. Murray also turned in a career year, but at this time it doesn’t sound like the Cowboys are willing to shell out big bucks to keep him. Recently, Jason Cole of Bleacher Report heard from sources that the reigning offensive player of the year should command between $7-10MM annually on a new deal. Meanwhile, a report from Ian Rapoport of NFL.com indicated that Dallas’ latest offer came in at about $4MM per season. There’s one heck of a bridge to gap between Murray and Dallas and the Cowboys might not be willing to meet him halfway. Still, Murray put on a ton of miles in 2014 and his fumbling issues were troubling and it’s possible that his market won’t be as hot as he expects.

On the offensive line, Dallas will have to figure out what to do at right tackle with both Doug Free and Jermey Parnell eligible for free agency. Free was ticketed to be the starter in 2014, but injuries mucked with those plans, opening the door for Parnell. The Cowboys would love to keep both, but that might not make budgetary sense for the team. If Free’s foot and ankle troubles appear to be behind him, it wouldn’t surprising to see him return while Parnell gets signed to be someone else’s starter.

Even though Dallas has serious uncertainty when it comes to its linebacking troupe, the club at least has the flexibility of Anthony Hitchens and can plug him in at any spot necessary. Still, in a perfect world, Dallas would retain McClain and put him in the middle, allowing Hitchens and the returning Sean Lee to take care of the outside spots. It seemed unlikely at the time he was acquired from the Ravens, but McClain turned out to be a rock for the Cowboys in the face of Lee’s season-ending injury. Keeping both Durant and Carter would be a solid play by the Cowboys but with Carter’s measurables, it’s not hard to see another team swooping in and paying more than Dallas would be comfortable with.

Possible Cap Casualties

With a cap hit north of $12.7MM, Carr will be out of Dallas unless he is willing to take a pay cut. Back in January, Jones made it clear that he’s not interested in a restructuring and instead wants a salary reduction.

“There’s an issue of going and borrowing some money, borrowing it in the sense of hedging, taking money from future years,” Jones said. “There’s an issue there. Carr played well this year and I’m not as critical of Carr as others. But that’s a lot of money. One thing that we just got to do is we’ve got to make sure that every way we can, we get the value for the money.”

Releasing Carr outright would save the Cowboys $8MM against the cap in 2015 but it would leave them with a $7.4MM burden the following year. Moving on from Carr would be doubly difficult since Morris Claiborne, another underachiever, is not guaranteed to be ready for the start of the 2015 season thanks to his torn patella tendon. It seems like a pay cut, even if it’s a modest one, would be in the best interest of both parties.

The Cowboys would probably like to welcome Melton back for another season but they’ll probably look to work out a new deal. A new contract for the 28-year-old defensive tackle would probably call for a big drop in guaranteed money with a reduced average annual value as well. Melton finished the year as the 14th ranked defensive tackle in the entire NFL, according to Pro Football Focus.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

Romo’s contract calls for a $27.77MM cap hit in 2015, before dipping to $17.64MM in 2016. Jones, as we mentioned when talking about Carr, is wary of shifting financial burden into future years to clear up the current cap situation. However, it’s hard to see Dallas really sticking to that plan considering the work that needs to be done this offseason. The Cowboys have a limited window to win with Romo under center and there’s no real succession plan in place for the 34-year-old (35 in April). Of course, at Romo’s age, an extension is probably off the table.

Recently, Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap looked at the Cowboys options when it comes to a possible restructuring for Romo and he found that there were two viable solutions. The first would be a restructuring where $7MM is converted into a signing bonus, rather than the maximum allowable figure of $16.03MM. That would create $5.6MM in cap space with a workable $14.2MM in dead money in 2017. Alternatively, Fitzgerald suggests that Dallas could take away from Romo’s massive 2015 base salary and shift that money over to the following year, where his current base is just $8.5MM.

Overall Outlook

After capturing their first NFC East title since 2009, it finally appears that things are falling into place for the Cowboys. In order to repeat, however, they’ll have to find a way to keep their needle-movers without compromising too much for future seasons.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NFC Notes: AP, Bynes, McCown, 49ers, Eagles

February 12th, 2015 at 5:01pm CST by Luke Adams

The Vikings announced today that they’ve promoted Kevin Warren to chiefs operating officer of the franchise, and Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk wondered this morning if that could mean the end of Adrian Peterson‘s time in Minnesota. After all, when Peterson said during the 2014 season that someone in the organization was working against him, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that the running back was referring to Warren.

However, on a conference call this afternoon, Warren told reporters, including Ben Goessling of ESPN.com (all Twitter links), that he’d welcome back Peterson with open arms. Although Warren didn’t deny Schefter’s report, he did say, “I can tell you my feelings about Adrian are very positive. I hope he finishes his career here in Minnesota.”

As Goessling observes in his latest ESPN.com article on Peterson, the tone from the Vikings’ front office when discussing the running back seems to have shifted. Whether that signals an increased willingness from the Vikings to bring back the former MVP, or perhaps a desire to improve their trade leverage, things should get interesting as his reinstatement nears, writes Goessling.

Here’s more from across the NFC:

  • Linebacker Josh Bynes, who had been eligible for restricted free agency, won’t receive a contract tender from the Lions, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press. Nonetheless, the Lions have informed Bynes that they’d still like to re-sign him, presumably at a rate closer to the minimum salary. The 25-year-old will have a chance to speak to other suitors next month.
  • There’s no truth to rumors that Josh McCown could’ve remained with the Buccaneers if he had been willing to accept a pay cut, according to the quarterback (link via Roy Cummings of the Tampa Tribune). McCown also indicated that at least a half-dozen teams have already expressed interest in signing him (Twitter link via Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times).
  • The 49ers have key free agents in Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, and Mike Iupati, but the franchise tag isn’t a viable option to keep any of those three players, writes Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com. I reached the same conclusion last weekend when I looked at the NFC West’s franchise tag candidates.
  • Examining the inside linebacker position for the Eagles, Sheil Kapadia of PhillyMag.com says he thinks the team should try to extend Mychal Kendricks this offseason. Kapadia also admits he has “no clue” which direction the Eagles will go with DeMeco Ryans, who is generally productive when healthy, but has a pricey cap hit ($6.9MM) that includes no guaranteed money.

Brandon Graham Seeking $20MM Guarantee?

February 12th, 2015 at 3:18pm CST by Luke Adams

Eagles edge defender Brandon Graham, who is eligible for free agency next month, will be seeking a four-year deal in the neighborhood of $30MM, with $20MM in guaranteed money, reports Geoff Mosher of CSNPhilly.com. Mosher tucks away this nugget in the middle of a larger look at the team’s key free agents and doesn’t cite a specific source, but states it definitively enough that it certainly appears to be more than just idle speculation.

On the surface, that might seem like an unrealistic asking price for Graham, who has been a backup for the Eagles for nearly his entire rookie contract. However, even though the former first-round pick hasn’t put up huge traditional stats, Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required) have loved his production. In 2014, Graham graded as the league’s third-best 3-4 outside linebacker, despite appearing in just 524 defensive snaps; in 2013, he saw even less playing time (331 snaps), but still ranked 15th among 42 qualified players at his position. Graham had his best season in 2012, per PFF, placing second among 4-3 defensive ends with a +30.1 grade in only 435 snaps.

Despite potentially being an underrated asset, landing a contract that features $20MM in guaranteed money still looks a little too ambitious for Graham. By comparison, only one player in last year’s free agent class (Branden Albert) signed a deal that included $20MM in fully guaranteed money. Perhaps Graham could achieve that goal of a $20MM guarantee if we also take into account salary guaranteed for injury only, but I don’t expect him to score a massive payday. This is the time of year when players’ asking prices often greatly exceed the actual prices on which they’ll eventually settle.

Still, as Mosher notes, Graham could be a player whose value will be “discovered” during next week’s scouting combine in Indianapolis, as team executives and agents come together for the first time this offseason. It’ll be interesting to see whether Graham draws significant interest from teams that view him as an every-down player, or if other clubs will also view him as a pass-rushing specialist, like the Eagles did — that would limit his overall stock. Considering he did his best work as a 4-3 defensive end before Philadelphia changed schemes a couple years ago, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the 26-year-old pursued primarily by teams running a 4-3 defense.

Rams Promote Frank Cignetti To OC

February 12th, 2015 at 2:13pm CST by Zachary Links

FEBRUARY 12: The Rams have finally made it official, announcing today in a press release that Cignetti will be the team’s new offensive coordinator and play-caller. Boras will lead the running game, in addition to coaching the tight ends, and receives a new assistant head coach title.

FEBRUARY 5: The Rams are expected to promote quarterbacks coach Frank Cignetti to offensive coordinator, a source tells Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (on Twitter). A formal announcement should come sometime next week.

The Rams have been searching for a new offensive coordinator ever since Brian Schottenheimer left the team to work at the University of Georgia. The Rams looked at out-of-house candidates for some time, but they ultimately circled back to Cignetti. St. Louis had interest in candidates such as Adam Gase and Rob Chudzinski and they appeared to be closing in on former Bills OC Nathaniel Hackett before he landed with the Jaguars.

Cignetti’s first NFL experience came in 1999 when he served as a quality control coach for the Chiefs. Since then, he has held several offensive coordinator positions at the collegiate level and jobs as a quarterbacks coach in the NFL. The Rams officially hired Cignetti to be their quarterbacks coach almost three years ago to this date.

The Rams also considered tight ends coach Rob Boras as an internal candidate for the opening.

AFC North Links: Steelers, Bengals, Ravens

February 12th, 2015 at 2:11pm CST by Luke Adams

The NFL has announced the introduction of a new veteran combine this year, set for March 22 in Phoenix. The event, scheduled for nearly two weeks after the start of 2015’s free agent period, will allow about 100 veteran free agents to audition for interested teams. However, Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert doesn’t have much interest in the combine as an evaluation tool, as Mark Kaboly of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review details.

“Most of these guys that go to the veteran combine have been in at camp,” Colbert said. “They’ve been veterans. They’ve been practice squad players or they’ve been active players. So what they do in a workout I’m not really interested in. I just want to see what they did when they did have their chance to be NFL players.”

As we wait to see whether the event will pique the interest of other GMs and teams around the NFL, let’s check in on a few notes from around the AFC North….

  • The Bengals may have a fairly uneventful offseason ahead of them, according to Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com, who notes that this should be a good time for the team to try to work out a contract with star receiver A.J. Green.
  • One reason we shouldn’t expect much action from the Bengals this offseason is that the club typically doesn’t pursue free agents at the top of the market, and Paul Dehner Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer explains why.
  • While the cornerback position could be a priority for the Ravens this offseason, the club should also make sure to address the safety spot, since only Matt Elam and 2014 third-rounder Terrence Brooks have contracts for next season at the moment, says Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun.
  • Restricted free-agent-to-be Will Hill will likely return to the Ravens, and he’s out there recruiting for other potential free agent safeties to join him in Baltimore. As Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com writes, Hill is campaigning for his former Giants teammate Antrel Rolle to sign with the Ravens.

Jets, Raiders Expected To Target Top WRs

February 12th, 2015 at 1:01pm CST by Luke Adams

As I noted this morning when I examined the free agent market for wide receivers, the players at the very top of this year’s board likely won’t be available when free agency begins on March 10. Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas are both strong candidates for the franchise tag, and Jeremy Maclin and Randall Cobb could get tagged as well, if they don’t work out long-term extensions with their current teams.

However, that doesn’t mean that this year’s receiver market will be weak. Even without those four wideouts on the board, players like Torrey Smith, Michael Crabtree, Cecil Shorts, and Kenny Britt may be available, and Jason Cole of Bleacher Report (video link) suggests that a handful of players currently under contract could join them. Cole identifies Percy Harvin (Jets), Mike Wallace (Dolphins), Vincent Jackson (Buccaneers), and Brandon Marshall (Bears) as a few veteran receivers who could hit the open market if they decline to take pay cuts or rework their contracts.

While the top-tier free agent receivers figure to draw interest from around the NFL, Cole suggests that the Jets and Raiders will be the most aggressive teams in trying to secure one of those top options. As Over The Cap’s data shows, Oakland and New York should both rank among the top five clubs in terms of available cap room this offseason, with approximately $50MM in flexibility.

That cap space will increase for the Jets if they release Harvin, and such a move would probably have them in the market for two new receivers, either in free agency or the draft. The Raiders, meanwhile, have Denarius Moore, Vincent Brown, Rod Streater, and Andre Holmes all eligible for either unrestricted or restricted free agency, and will be looking for an impact wideout to complement James Jones in order to help advance Derek Carr‘s development.

Although it will become irrelevant if the Broncos use their franchise tag on Thomas, it’s worth noting that Decker has been pushing hard to try to convince his former teammate to join him in New York.

Packers Announce Coaching Changes

February 12th, 2015 at 12:05pm CST by Luke Adams

12:05pm: McCarthy confirmed at his press conference that Clements will call the offensive plays for the Packers in 2015, tweets Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

11:58am: The Packers have confirmed a handful of previously reported coaching changes, announcing today in a press release that the team has made changes on both sides of the ball, and named a pair of new special teams assistants as well. The new titles on Mike McCarthy‘s staff are as follows:

  • Tom Clements: Associate head coach/offense
  • Edgar Bennett: Offensive coordinator
  • Alex Van Pelt: Quarterbacks and wide receivers coach
  • Mike Solari: Assistant offensive line coach
  • Jerry Montgomery: Defensive front assistant
  • Ron Zook: Special teams coordinator
  • Jason Simmons: Assistant special teams coach

While the press release doesn’t mention anything about the Packers’ offensive play calls, McCarthy is expected to hand over the reins on play-calling to Clements as part of his promotion. Clements had previously been Green Bay’s offensive coordinator, while McCarthy called the plays, and now it appears that Bennett will be the OC while Clements calls plays.

McCarthy will speak to local reporters at the top of the hour to confirm the changes.

East Notes: Dolphins, Wallace, Maclin, Bills

February 12th, 2015 at 11:14am CST by Luke Adams

A possible contract extension for starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill will be a top priority for the Dolphins this offseason, but the club will also need to secure a backup, writes Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald. In Salguero’s view, considering Tannehill has been sacked more than any other QB in the league over the last two seasons, Miami will target a veteran backup who could potentially salvage the season if he were forced into action. Given his history with the team, free-agent-to-be Matt Moore may be the Dolphins’ best bet, but there should be no shortage of veteran alternatives on the market.

Here’s more from around the NFL’s two East divisions:

  • Nothing is off limits this offseason for wide receiver Mike Wallace, including being retained, traded or released by the Dolphins. Mulling the idea of a Wallace trade, James Walker of ESPN.com names three potential suitors for the veteran wideout, identifying the Seahawks and Colts as the best fits.
  • It doesn’t make much sense for Jeremy Maclin to sign a deal with the Eagles right now, writes Geoff Mosher of CSNPhilly.com, pointing out that Maclin could end up being the best receiver on the market in a few weeks depending on how teams use their franchise tags. If Maclin were to sign an extension with Philadelphia now, he could short-change himself by millions – or tens of millions – during his best chance to “hit the jackpot.”
  • Appearing on WGR 550 in Buffalo today, Bills head coach Rex Ryan indicated the team is keeping every option open in the search for an answer at quarterback. “We are in the evaluating stages. So, we’re looking,” Ryan said, per Joe Buscaglia of WGR 550. “We’ve got the draft coming up, free agency is coming up. You’re looking at all those type of things. Are there some scenarios out there, are there trade possibilities? You look at every possible scenario there is. From Doug Whaley all the way to our scouts, all our positional coaches… we’re looking at that. Believe me, we’ll be prepared for every scenario out there.“
  • Andrew Brandt of TheMMQB.com makes 12 predictions for the coming offseason, forecasting that DeMarco Murray will return to the Cowboys on a team-friendly deal, Dallas will pay Dez Bryant a top-of-the-market multiyear contract, and Darrelle Revis will pass up a potentially bigger offer to return to the Patriots.

Terrell Thomas Announces Retirement

February 12th, 2015 at 10:16am CST by Luke Adams

Veteran cornerback Terrell Thomas has announced his retirement from the NFL, the Giants confirmed today in a press release. Thomas hadn’t been on the Giants’ roster, but he played virtually entire his NFL career with the team, never appearing in a regular season game for another club.

Thomas, who turned 30 last month, was selected in the second round of the 2008 draft, and ultimately appeared in 60 games for the Giants, starting 41 of them. He was sidelined for two years – 2011 and 2012 – after suffering consecutive ACL injuries, the second and third ACL tears of his career. The USC product returned to the field in 2013 and was active in all 16 games for the Giants, making seven starts and logging 588 defensive snaps, but he expressed concern last June that teams were wary about signing him because of his injury history.

Although he eventually got a look from the Seahawks in training camp, Thomas didn’t make the club’s regular season roster, and didn’t catch on with another team during the 2014 season. The veteran corner admits that he thought he would have an active free agency, and would have no trouble finding a home, but says doctors didn’t give the OK on his knee.

“Knowing the game of football, being 29 with three ACL (injuries), I just figured my time is short,” Thomas said. “I can keep chasing a dream, but I was blessed to be able to come back and play that one year (2013). To be able to show my family and fans, my daughter and myself that I worked hard enough to overcome some significant injuries and I became the second player in NFL history to come back from three ACLs. I didn’t play with a brace. I am proud of my accomplishments. I have been through a lot and I overcame it. I am a smart dude and I am not going to chase football. Football is not chasing me. I feel like my time is over. I was blessed enough to play six years in the NFL. I lived my dream, and now it is time for the next chapter of my life.”

For his career, Thomas accumulated 285 total tackles, grabbed 12 interceptions, and defended 46 passes. His best season came in 2010, when he had 101 tackles, five INTs, 21 passes defended, and four forced fumbles.

Free Agent Market For Wide Receivers

February 12th, 2015 at 8:54am CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to wide receivers. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

No other position has the same sort of star power at the top as this year’s free agent group of receivers does. In fact, in our last installment of 2015’s free agent power rankings, four of our top eight players were wideouts, with Bryant, Thomas, Maclin, and Cobb all making the cut.

Still, it’s probably fair to assume that Bryant and Thomas, at least, won’t reach the open market. Their respective teams have the franchise tag at their disposal, and intend to use it if a long-term agreement can’t be reached. Maclin and Cobb, on the other hand, may not warrant a tag, so they’ll be worth watching as free agency nears. If they make it to the open market, long-term deals worth $10MM+ annually aren’t out of the question, considering how many receiver-needy teams have cap room to spare.

While those four players are probably in a tier of their own, Smith isn’t far behind, and Crabtree is only two years removed from an 1,100-yard season. The rest of the list is a mix of reliable veterans (Royal, Washington, Wayne), and players with some upside (Britt, Nicks, Shorts), though teams likely won’t want to make too significant an investment on a guy from either of those groups.

Other unrestricted options:

You could make the case that Welker should be in the top tier of free agent wideouts this offseason, but his history of head injuries, combined with declining production, has him mulling the possibility of retirement, and I don’t think he’s the same guy he was even two or three seasons ago. Nonetheless, he’s one of the more intriguing names among this group, which features a number of players who are either past their primes or have yet to fully realize theirs.

If you’re looking for a player with some upside here, you could do worse than the two Raiders, Brown and Denarius Moore. Jernigan, who turns 26 this year, is also an interesting option — he was poised to assume a much larger role in the Giants’ offense in 2014 before a foot injury cut his season short. Williams also may have something left in the tank after a lost season in Buffalo, but a team shouldn’t invest more than a minimum-salary contract to find out.

In fact, that probably applies to most players on this list. There’s an outside chance a club could find an impact performer in this group, but most of these guys will end up no higher than third or fourth on a team’s depth chart. Others may not even rank that highly, contributing primarily on special teams or in the return game rather than an offense.

Restricted FAs:

It’s not easy to pry away a restricted free agent from a team that wants to keep him, and I assume that will be the case for the more noteworthy names among this year’s RFA wideouts. Guys like Beasley, Holmes, Johnson, Kearse, and Streater should pique the interest of teams in need of wideouts, but I imagine their current clubs will submit contract tenders to bring them back.

In my view, Holmes is the most interesting player in this group, but considering how much cap room the Raiders have, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Raiders placed a higher tender on the 26-year-old to discourage rival suitors from courting him. Typically, a minimum-level RFA tender is enough to scare off potential bidders, but for less than $1MM, Oakland could increase its offer to a second-round tender, meaning that any club hoping to sign Holmes would have to part with a second-round pick to land him.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

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