Extension Candidate: Marcus Gilbert
We learned yesterday that Drew Rosenhaus, the agent for Steelers’ right tackle Marcus Gilbert, had approached the club about a possible long-term deal for Gilbert. Although those talks are in the preliminary stages at this point, it may behoove the Steelers, who have struggled to get consistent production from their offensive line in recent years, to act before Gilbert hits the open market at the end of this season.
To be certain, Gilbert is not an elite talent. Although we caution that Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics are not the be-all and end-all of player evaluation, those metrics combined with the “eye test” make for a fairly valuable analytical tool, and in this instance, the PFF grades (subscription required) accurately suggest that Gilbert is a solid pass blocker but struggles with run blocking. As compared to other offensive tackles, Gilbert is decidedly average, ranking 36th out of 76 qualified tackles in 2011, his rookie season, and 50th out of 76 in 2013 (he played only five games in 2012 after suffering an ankle injury in Week 6 of that season).
Nonetheless, even average lineman fared pretty well in free agency this year. As we noted yesterday, right tackles Austin Howard, Breno Giacomini, and Michael Oher all received four- or five-year deals worth between $4MM and $6MM per season. Only one of those players–Giacomini–performed better than Gilbert in 2013, according to PFF, and none of them were better in 2011. As such, Gilbert could reasonably demand at least as much, and will certainly get it should he hit free agency.
Gilbert, taken in the second round of the 2011 draft, is part of Pittsburgh’s recent movement to provide better protection to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and to revive their once-dominant running game. He is one of four offensive linemen taken in the first or second round in the past five years, along with tackle Mike Adams, guard David DeCastro, and recently-extended center Maurkice Pouncey. Although DeCastro and Pouncey have played well, Adams has struggled in his two seasons in the league, and the Steelers would like to be confident in at least one of their bookends in the long term.
Although he has stated that he loves playing in Pittsburgh and would not want to go elsewhere, the contracts that his peers received this offseason–along with the fact that he is represented by Rosenhaus–suggest that Gilbert will not be taking a hometown discount. However, solid tackles are hard to find, and the Steelers have gone through enough turmoil on their line in recent seasons to let a chance at real stability walk away (indeed, the chance to a keep core group of players in a given unit intact is an oft-overlooked but critical component of these discussions). It may be difficult to keep Gilbert on board, given that Roethlisberger, Jason Worilds, and Cortez Allen are also extension candidates, but Pittsburgh may have no other choice.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Extension Candidate: Kyle Rudolph
New Vikings offensive coordinator Norv Turner is known as something of a “tight end whisperer” — his ability to induce production out of the position, with players like Antonio Gates and Jordan Cameron, is virtually unparallelled in the NFL. His newest protégé is Kyle Rudolph, who is entering not only his fourth season in the league but the final year of his rookie contract, which is set to pay him a base salary of nearly $1MM. The Vikings, then, in something of a buy-low opportunity, may look to extend the 24-year-old before 2014, when his talents, combined with Turner’s instruction, could lead to a monster season, allowing Rudolph to price himself out of Minnesota’s range.
Rudolph, a 2011 second-round pick, has accrued decidedly mediocre statistics over the course of his career — he averaged 39 receptions for 371 yards and six to
uchdowns over his first two seasons; he nearly matched those numbers in 2013, however, despite starting only eight games due to a fractured foot. Advanced metrics paint a more favorable picture of Rudolph, as he graded as a top-15 tight end in both 2011 and 2012, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). DYAR, a Football Outsiders statistic that measures only receiving ability (omitting blocking) wasn’t quite as impressed — over the past three seasons, Rudolph ranked 43rd, 28th, and 27th. Of course, the Vikings haven’t had the most capable quarterbacks delivering the ball over that span, as Rudolph caught passes from the likes of Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, and a near-retirement Donovan McNabb.
For his part, Rudolph has expressed his desire to remain with the Vikings. “…[M]y financial situation is completely in their hands right now,” Rudolph told Chris Tomasson of the Pioneer Press. “I’ve got one year left on my deal here and I’m extremely excited for the changes that have been made around here (under first-year coach Mike Zimmer)…All I can worry about is going out and being successful. The contract will take care of itself. … I’d be more than happy to stay here for a long time.” However, as of mid-April, the Vikings had not approached him about an extension, according to Matt Vensel of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.
Tight end contracts can be more difficult to evaluate than other positions because of the vast differences between players’ usage and roles. Having said that, it’s probably safe to disregard any potential deal regarding Jimmy Graham, as well as the 2012 extension signed by Rob Gronkowski, as the two are considered to be in completely different stratosphere. Also complicating matters is Rudolph’s youth — at 24, he is far younger than were most tight ends who received extensions.
Martellus Bennett of the Bears and Dennis Pitta of the Ravens offer the two best options when looking for comparable players and a potential contract. Bennett, who was 25 when he signed as a free agent with Chicago, had put up analogous numbers to Rudolph, but was a free agent — he received $20.4MM over five years, with $5.215MM in guarantees. Pitta has better statistics to Rudolph, but, like the Viking, was coming off an injury. He re-signed with Baltimore in late February, so while the deal was nominally an extension, he was effectively a free agent, as free agency began less than two weeks later. Pitta’s contract, signed when he was four years older than Rudolph, was worth $32MM over five years, $16MM of which was guaranteed.
I would set Bennett’s contract as the floor, and Pitta’s deal the ceiling, when discussing a Rudolph extension. A deal worth four to five years, with an AAV of $5.5MM, and guarantees in the $10-12MM range wouldn’t be out of the question. However, the Vikings need to factor in the risk of a huge 2014 season by Rudolph into their valuation; if he succeeds on the level of other Turner-coached tight ends, Rudolph could angle for an even larger contract. So perhaps the team, in the interest of getting a deal done now, offers a tad more in either AAV or guarantees in order to stave off a potential free agent negotiation.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
PFR Originals: 6/8/14 – 6/15/14
The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- David Kipke examined the wisdom of the NFL adding a developmental league.
- Luke Adams delved into contract incentives, explaining the differences between “likely to be earned” and “not likely to be earned” incentives, and the resulting cap charges.
- Luke asked whether the Bengals and Chiefs should offer extensions to Andy Dalton and Alex Smith, respectively, with a slight plurality believing that neither franchise should sign their signal-callers.
- Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest installment of Pigskin Links
- Luke looked at the Falcons’ options at linebacker in the wake of Sean Weatherspoon‘s season-ending injury.
- In our latest Extension Candidate post, Luke wrote up Cowboys offensive tackle Tyron Smith, and argued that Smith approaching the contract of Joe Thomas wouldn’t be out of the question.
- A summary of all the features found here at PFR.
Extension Candidate: Tyron Smith
Cowboys wideout Dez Bryant is entering the final year of his rookie deal and should be in line for a big-money, long-term extension in the coming months. However, while Bryant may be the shorter-term priority for Dallas due to his expiring contract, offensive tackle Tyron Smith may ultimately be the more crucial piece for the Cowboys to lock up.
Because Smith was a first-round pick in 2011, the Cowboys were able to exercise their fifth-year team option to keep him under contract through 2015, but the clock is still ticking for the club to work out an agreement that will keep the Pro Bowler in Dallas for several years beyond that. Although we’ll have to wait and see whether the Cowboys choose to address the situation this year, it’s worth examining what kind of deal it would take to keep Smith in the fold.
Smith, 2011’s ninth overall pick, had his work on the outside of the Cowboys’ line recognized with a Pro Bowl nod last season for the first time, and his Pro Football Focus grades suggest he was worthy of that spot, with his performance placing him among the top five tackles in the NFL (subscription required).
It was the second time in three NFL seasons that PFF graded Smith as a top-five player at the position, though in his rookie season that ranking came at right tackle, rather than left. During his first year on the left side in 2012, Smith’s grades slipped a little, particularly as a pass-blocker, but his play in 2013, combined with his age (23) suggest we should expect to see the USC product continue to develop into one of the league’s elite offensive linemen.
If we’re assuming Smith should perform like one of the NFL’s best tackles, it stands to reason that he should be paid like one as well. So it makes sense to compare his potential contract to the ones signed by players like Joe Thomas, Ryan Clady, Branden Albert, and Trent Williams. As Over the Cap’s data shows, the average annual salaries for those tackles range from $9.4MM to $11.5MM, with their overall guarantees coming in between $15MM and $28.5MM.
By the time he negotiates an extension, Smith could be in position to argue he deserves to be paid more than any other left tackle in the NFL. After all, the salary cap is on the rise — by the time Smith’s new deal starts in 2016, teams will have significantly more cap space to work with than they did when many of those previous pacts were signed. Additionally, Smith will be in his prime years during his next deal. When the 2016 season gets underway, he’ll still be just 25 years old, so even if the Cowboys lock him up for several years past that, the club shouldn’t have to anticipate a drop in production over the course of the contract.
So what sort of figures would be fair for Smith? A per-year salary of $12MM+ seems within reach, and a full guarantee that significantly exceeds $20MM also makes sense. The length of the deal figures to depend on whether Smith wants another chance to hit free agency by age 30, or if he wants to commit to the Cowboys for most of his playing career. If it’s the latter, Thomas’ $80.5MM contract with the Browns might provide a reasonable point of comparison. Thomas established new high water marks for tackles with an $11.5MM annual salary and $28.5MM in guaranteed money on his seven-year deal. Assuming Smith continues to cement his place as one of the NFL’s most effective linemen in 2014, it wouldn’t be a shock if he surpasses Thomas and establishes new baselines for tackles with his next contract.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Falcons’ Options At Linebacker
The Falcons will aim to bounce back from a disappointing 2013 season this year, and while there are several reasons for optimism, the team’s 2014 chances sustained a significant blow yesterday, when word broke that linebacker Sean Weatherspoon ruptured his Achilles tendon and will be out for the season.
Already a key contributor on defense for Atlanta, Weatherspoon may have assumed even greater importance this year, as the Falcons transition from a 4-3 base defense into a hybrid system that will incorporate more 3-4 looks. With Weatherspoon out of the picture, the pressure is on the remaining linebackers to fill his role, and it’s not an overwhelmingly deep group. The club is currently carrying 11 linebackers on the roster, but seven of those are rookies — either mid-to-late round draft picks or undrafted free agents.
As D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes, the Falcons spent most of last season with Joplo Bartu, Paul Worrilow, and Akeem Dent playing the majority of the snaps at the starting linebacker spots. Those players didn’t perform too badly — Worrilow led the team in tackles, and Bartu graded as about a league-average outside linebacker, according to Pro Football Focus’ metrics (subscription required).
If more linebacker snaps are necessary in the Falcons’ new defensive system though, Atlanta will need to rely on more than those three players to get by. Kroy Biermann is the other returning player on the unit, but he’s coming off a serious Achilles injury of his own, and it remains to be seen whether he’ll be fully returned to form. In some looks, the Falcons may line up 4-3 defensive ends such as Osi Umenyiora as 3-4 outside linebackers — still, the team will likely rotate players in and out of those spots depending on the situation.
Of the first-year players, Notre Dame’s Prince Shembo was the highest pick, selected in the fourth round at No. 139 overall. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be the player to make the most impact right away, but besides Shembo and fifth-rounder Marquis Spruill, all of the Falcons’ rookie LBs were seventh-round picks or undrafted free agents — that suggests most teams, including Atlanta, probably didn’t view those players as ready to step in as immediate contributors. Nonetheless, perhaps one or two players of a group that also includes Yawin Smallwood, Tyler Starr, Brenden Daley, Walker May, and Jacques Smith will provide unexpected production right away.
If the Falcons aren’t comfortable with their internal options, exploring free agency is an alternative. Although most impact players were snatched up months ago, linebacker is one spot where there are still a few notable names on the board. Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution suggests James Harrison is one player for the club to consider, while ESPN.com’s Vaughn McClure wonders if Dan Connor, who worked out for Atlanta earlier in the offseason, is worth a longer look.
A glance at our list of remaining free agents reveals a few other possibilities. Pat Angerer and Jonathan Vilma are among the veterans who could have some value, and there are a pair of former Falcons still on the market as well, in Omar Gaither and Stephen Nicholas. Considering the team is implementing a new defensive system, the fact that Gaither and Nicholas played in Atlanta last year wouldn’t necessarily be a huge plus, though at least the Falcons have first-hand familiarity with those players’ strengths and weaknesses.
Ultimately, the Falcons may be content to see how their rookies and returning linebackers fare in Weatherspoon’s absence. However, considering how Atlanta’s defense performed in 2013, entering the 2014 campaign with a similar group of players at the LB position has to give the team pause. I’d expect the Falcons to peruse the free agent market with a little more urgency before training camp in search of a potential upgrade.
Contract Incentives
When I broke down the concept of contract bonuses in a previous PFR Glossary entry, I touched briefly on the idea of contract incentives, but it’s worth taking a more in-depth look at that specific kind of bonus. Whereas a signing bonus is fairly straightforward in its payment and its cap structure, incentives can be used to manipulate a player’s cap hit, and will often alter that player’s cap number after the fact.
At the most basic level, contract incentives are designed to reward a player for his performance — in some cases, these financial rewards are linked to individual or team production, while other incentives can be earned simply by the player earning a spot on his team’s active roster from week to week. These incentives are divided into two categories: Likely to be earned (LTBE) and not likely to be earned (NLTBE).
Under the NFL’s definition, a likely to be earned incentive is generally one that was achieved the year before. So if a running back racked up 1,300 yards on the ground in 2013 and has an incentive in his contract that would reward him for surpassing 1,200 yards in 2014, that incentive is viewed as likely to be earned and counts against his cap hit from the start of the year. On the other hand, a back who has never surpassed 700 rushing yards in a season could have an incentive on his deal for 2014 that would reward him for rushing for 800 yards — such a bonus would be considered not likely to be earned, and wouldn’t count against the player’s cap number.
Because the player’s or team’s performance in a given season dictates whether or not the incentive is actually earned, the player’s cap number is sometimes altered after the fact. For instance, there’d be no change if a player met the criteria for a $50K LTBE incentive, but if he failed to earn that incentive, his team would be credited with $50K in cap room for the following season. Similarly, if a $50K NLTBE incentive isn’t reached, nothing changes, but if a player does earn that incentive, his club’s cap space for the following season is reduced by $50K.
A simple incentive linked to yardage or touchdown totals in a season isn’t too hard to track, but there are more convoluted forms of bonuses. Let’s say a player coming off an injury that limited him to six games played signs a contract that would pay him $500K in per-game roster bonuses. That player would be considered likely to appear in six games, but unlikely to appear in more beyond that. So, of his $500K in roster bonuses, $187,500 would initially count against the cap, as the LTBE portion.
Here are a few more notes on contract incentives and how they work:
- Any incentive that is considered to be in the player’s sole control, such as weight bonuses, or his presence at workouts, is considered likely to be earned.
- Any incentive in the first year of a rookie contract is considered likely to be earned.
- Individual performance incentives can be linked to most basic statistical categories, such as yardage, yards per attempt, and touchdowns. However, more obscure stat categories typically aren’t allowed for individual incentives. For instance, a receiver couldn’t have an incentive tied to receptions of 20+ yards. Meanwhile, a defender could have an incentive linked to sacks or interceptions, but not to tackles for a loss.
- In some cases, individual performances can also dictate the value of traded draft picks. For example, the future pick changing hands from the Bills to the Eagles will be dependent on the performances of Stevie Johnson for the 49ers and Bryce Brown of the Bills. Those players don’t necessarily have personal incentives in their contracts, but depending on how they perform, Philadelphia could pick up either a 2015 fourth-rounder, a 2016 third-rounder, or a ’16 fourth-rounder.
Note: This is a PFR Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to free agency, trades, or other aspects of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Information from Russell Street Report, Over The Cap, and Salary Cap 101 was used in the creation of this post.
Is It Time For Another NFL Developmental League?
It has been 7 years since the NFL last dabbled with a developmental league. The 6-team NFL Europa, which began in 1991 as the 10-team World League of American Football, was boarded up in June 2007 after “having hemorrhaged red ink for a 15th straight year,” as ESPN’s Len Pasquarelli aptly described. The league, which had been intended to serve as a farm system of legitimate development for NFL prospects who would have otherwise not had an opportunity to play consistently, had in practice become a loophole that allowed teams to stash players overseas. In fact, NFL Europa’s level of play had sank so low by 2007 that the league’s consensus best player, JT O’Sullivan, found himself in a competition for the Bears’ third string quarterback job after the Europa season ended. Ultimately, the league that was producing neither on-field nor off-field field returns had its plug pulled because its negative cash flow was simply too significant for the notoriously business-savvy NFL owners to ignore.
Roger Goodell swiftly ended the slowly-bleeding-out NFL Europa during his first year of becoming the ninth NFL Commissioner. Why would he want to expend significant time and resources to start a new one?
Troy Vincent, the NFL’s new head of football operations, cited several meaningful benefits that would come with a new developmental league- further training for coaches and officials as well as a laboratory for testing rules to name a few. Additionally, it is undeniable that NFL Europa did manage to develop a few highly impactful NFL talents-most notably quarterbacks Kurt Warner and Jake Delhomme, both of whom started in Super Bowls.
Perhaps most tangibly, a developmental league would provide the NFL with a much larger formal feeder system. Due to significant restrictions to offseason workout and conditioning programs, along with the decision to push the Draft into May, young NFL players have received considerably less formal instruction than has been the norm for decades. With the ongoing NCAA student-athlete unionization process in flux, the collegiate ranks appear to be diminishing as a legitimate feeder league to the NFL. This is due to the tremendously altered post-high school athletics landscape that unionized NCAA athletes would create. As the Washington Post’s Donald Yee described, high school players would likely end up choosing between taking a college stipend or signing on with an NFL developmental body until they become eligible for the NFL Draft.
So times have changed since 2007 and the NFL now has a genuine need for a developmental league, but what would that league look like?
Yee playfully surmises that there might be competing NFL D-leagues, with one perhaps being patronized by sports-inclined billionaires like Larry Ellison and Mark Cuban and another being more formally tied to the NFL. A more realistic future, however, is far less exciting. Vincent stated that the league could manifest itself through several different platforms, such as perhaps a spring league or an NFL Academy. Former NFL GM Phil Savage envisions a regional league that is designed primarily to meet the league’s developmental needs, as opposed to a consumer-facing league that is more geared toward showcasing the NFL’s developing talent. Whatever the course of action that the NFL pursues, the discussion surrounding another developmental league only figures to increase in the coming years.
What do you think? Is it high time for a new NFL developmental league? Or would another D-league flop similarly to NFL Europa?
PFR Originals: 6/1/14 – 6/8/14
Here’s the original content produced by the PFR staff:
- We continued our Extension Candidate series, as I looked at Bengals QB Andy Dalton (link) and Luke Adams examined Steelers C Maurkice Pouncey (link).
- Our Trade Candidate series also got underway, as I wrote up Chiefs CB Brandon Flowers (link) and Rory Parks profiled Titans OT Michael Roos (link).
- Polls during the past week: I asked whether L.A. or London would get an NFL team first (L.A. was the heavy favorite), Zach Links wondered which franchise would be the first to move (with the Rams just edging out the Jaguars and Raiders), Luke questioned whether Andrew Luck or Russell Wilson should get the larger contract extension (with Luck being the preferred option), Luke also asked where free agent TE Jermichael Finley will sign (with the Patriots garnering about 28% of the vote), and Rory queried as to whether the Cowboys should bring back Josh Brent (with about two-thirds saying “no”). Thanks for voting!
- Luke offered an update on remaining unsigned draft picks; as of June 4, nearly 80% had signed.
Trade Candidate: Michael Roos
As our Luke Adams wrote at the end of May, Titans offensive tackle Michael Roos told Jim Wyatt of the Tennessean that he will be in Tennessee for one more year. As Adams observed, Roos’ statement certainly indicates that an extension is not on the horizon for him, which is not surprising given the four-year deal the team handed out to Michael Oher in free agency and the fact that the team selected Taylor Lewan in the first round of last month’s draft.
However, whether Roos will, as he says, stay in a Titans uniform for one more season may still be in doubt. Unless someone in the Tennessee front office told Roos that the team planned on keeping him on board, Roos remains a prime candidate to be traded or released. As our Ben Levine pointed out several weeks ago, Roos checked in at number four on NFL.com’s Chris Wesserling’s list of the top 10 players most likely to be traded this summer.
Roos, 31, is entering the final year of a six-year, $43MM deal, and he carries a 2014 salary cap hit of $6.62MM. That salary would make it difficult for Tennessee to deal him, and considering that the team would not take on any dead money by simply cutting Roos, a release is probably more likely than a trade at this point.
It is odd, though, that the team would consider cutting ties with him at all. Although he finished in the middle of the pack among offensive tackles in 2013 according to Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required), he finished as the third-best tackle in 2012 and has anchored the team’s offensive line for years. If nothing else, he provides top-quality depth if Lewan should struggle out of the gate–or if the team wanted to bring Lewan along more slowly–or if Oher should falter (although Roos has not played right tackle since he was a rookie in 2005, it is difficult to believe he would be a downgrade from Oher at that position).
In sum, then, the Titans are in full control of the situation at this point. If they hang onto Roos, they have either a quality starter or an excellent insurance policy. If they need to create come cap space for whatever reason, they can release Roos with no negative cap ramifications. Or, if a team gets desperate enough later on in camp–Wesserling listed the Ravens and Panthers as potential landing spots for Roos if Tennessee were to trade him, and both teams are still unsettled at at least one tackle position–it is possible that the Titans could end up with a late round pick in 2015. A rare win-win-win scenario in today’s NFL.
Photo courtesy of USA TODAY Sports Images
Poll: Should The Cowboys Bring Back Josh Brent?
We learned several days ago that the Cowboys would not rule out the possibility of defensive tackle Josh Brent‘s returning to the team upon his release from jail. Brent, of course, is currently serving a six-month sentence for intoxication manslaughter for his role in a drunken car crash that killed teammate and best friend, Jerry Brown. Brent is set to be released on July 23, and the Cowboys open training camp the next day.
David Moore of the Dallas Morning News lists the pros and cons of Brent’s would-be return. Moore notes that one common refrain among Cowboys fans is that Brent is simply not a good enough player to warrant the public relations nightmare and similar off-field concerns that his comeback would entail. Although Brent started just five games for the team in his three-year career, compiling just 1.5 sacks over that time and no more than 22 tackles in any one season, the fact remains that Dallas’ defense is in dire need of any kind of help.
The Cowboys ran a 3-4 defense when Brent last played for the club, but they now operate out of a 4-3 formation. As a 1-technique lineman in a 4-3 scheme, Brent would not be expected to generate a great deal of pressure on the quarterback, and it is difficult to say if he would provide any sort of upgrade over veterans Nick Hayden and Terrell McClain or rookies Ken Bishop and Davon Coleman.
Of course, Moore writes that neither desperation nor Brent’s talent level–such as it is–should factor into the Cowboys’ decision regarding Brent. He does add, however, that Brown’s mother, Stacey Jackson, has continued to publicly support Brent and has expressed her hope that that team will do the same. Jackson’s support would be something of a crutch for the Cowboys in the court of public opinion if they wanted to bring Brent back into the fold.
In order to do that, there are a number of hurdles to clear. Before training camp began last summer, Brent sent a retirement letter to the league, so he would have to apply for reinstatement. Then there is the question of what punishment commissioner Roger Goodell would levy upon reinstatement. Putting those substantial issues aside for the time being, Moore writes, “The Cowboys appear willing to give Brent a chance to resume his career if that’s what he wants,” but nothing more than that.
So what say you, hivemind? Should the Cowboys bring back Josh Brent?