PFR Originals News & Rumors

Extension Candidate: Tremaine Edmunds

June 28th, 2022 at 8:02pm CST by Ben Levine

While the Bills quickly extended Josh Allen for more than $250MM last offseason, another first-round pick from that 2018 draft class remains unsigned. Bills linebacker Tremaine Edmunds is heading into the final year of his five-year rookie pact, but there hasn’t been much reported progress regarding an extension.

Following a 100-plus-tackle season as a rookie and Pro Bowl nods in both 2019 and 2020, Edmunds seemed to be setting himself up for a sizable deal. The linebacker was still productive in 2021, but he finished with a career-low 108 tackles and only one QB hit. Pro Football Focus wasn’t particularly fond of his performance this past season, ranking him 61st among 87 eligible linebackers (although, for what it’s worth, the site has never been a fan of Edmunds).

2022 will ultimately be a key year when it comes to Edmunds’ earning potential. The 24-year-old was graded as one of the league’s better run-stopping linebackers, but he was among the worst in coverage, so an improvement in that area could good a long way in Edmunds securing a hefty contract. The linebacker’s coaches have also been focused on improving the player’s big-play ability; through 61 career games, Edmunds has four interceptions (half coming in his rookie season), two forced fumbles (both coming in his rookie year), and 5.5 sacks (including zero in 2021).

“I think – and he knows this – you want more splash plays,” defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier recently told Katherine Fitzgerald of The Buffalo News. “You want those big plays in ball games. That play he made against the Texans, the interception he came up with, that was a huge play in that ballgame. It really helped propel us along the way to a really good performance. And more plays like that.”

So what could Edmunds expect for his next contract? Two linebackers selected in the second round of the 2018 draft inked massive extensions with their teams. Darius Leonard got five years, $99.25MM ($52.5MM) from the Colts, but he’s firmly established himself as one of the top players at the position. Harold Landry signed a five-year, $87.5MM ($52.5MM guaranteed) deal with the Titans, but Edmunds hasn’t come close to matching Landry’s pass-rushing prowess. Either the player’s camp or the Bills could be waiting to see how negotiations unfold for Bradley Chubb and/or Roquan Smith; both linebackers were off the board before Edmunds in 2018.

If the LB franchise tag remains around $18MM next offseason, then that could be a logical route if the two sides don’t seem destined for an extension. The player is also set to make a bit less than $13MM in 2022. An extension worth $15MM per year seems to make sense from a financial standpoint, but it’d be a bit surprising if either side was willing to compromise on that number right now…the Bills could be eyeing a discount with the risk of paying $18MM in 2023, while Edmunds may not be willing to settle for a, say, four-year deal worth $60MM when he has the potential to make much more following a strong 2022 campaign.

Fortunately, while Edmunds may have to wait until the end of the season to sign his next deal, his head seems to be in the right place.

“Obviously, you think about it a little bit, but I can’t control that,” Edmunds said in early June (via Fitzgerald). “All I can control is how I come out each and every day, and just work. All that kind of stuff, you kind of just put it on the top shelf and do the stuff that you’ve been doing this whole time.”

Offseason In Review: New York Giants

June 28th, 2022 at 3:48pm CST by Sam Robinson

A brutal stretch to close last season doubled as one of the worst in the Giants’ 100-plus-year history. It turned Joe Judge from a coach likely to see a third season — after the franchise had canned its past two HCs (Ben McAdoo and Pat Shurmur) during or after their second years — to a pink-slip recipient. The conclusion of the team’s 4-13 season — its fifth straight campaign with double-digit losses — brought in a new regime responsible for reversing a longer run of struggles.

Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll, who helped the Bills morph from a team that missed 17 consecutive playoff brackets to a perennial Super Bowl contender, are now in charge of the Giants’ rebuild. Their offseason did not involve splashy free agency work, and cost-cutting measures ensued. But the team did identify cornerstone talent with a rare draft opportunity. Still, big questions exist ahead of the franchise’s latest relaunch effort.

Notable signings:

Mark Glowinski, G: Three years, $20MM. $11.4MM guaranteed.
Tyrod Taylor, QB: Two years, $11MM. $8.2MM guaranteed.
Jon Feliciano, OL: One year, $3.25MM. $2.4MM guaranteed.
Ricky Seals-Jones, TE: One year, $1.19MM. $353K guaranteed.
Justin Ellis, NT: One year, $1.27MM. $338K guaranteed.
Jihad Ward, OLB: One year, $1.19MM. $338K guaranteed
Max Garcia, G: One year, $1.27MM. $328K guaranteed.
Matt Breida, RB: One year, $1.19MM. $278K guaranteed.
Jordan Akins, TE: One year, $1.1MM. $50K guaranteed.

Injuries wrecked Judge’s offensive line plan last season. By Week 1 of this year, as many as four new starters could be present up front. Glowinski and Feliciano are ticketed to be two of those. Coming off a successful tenure as the right guard for one of the NFL’s top O-lines, Glowinski will attempt to keep going into his 30s after his Colts work led to a midlevel free agency accord. Pro Football Focus graded Glowinski as a top-25 guard last season.

Despite the former Seahawks fourth-rounder only missing one game over the past three years and playing a key role in Jonathan Taylor‘s runaway 2021 rushing title, the 30-year-old blocker was unable to generate a big market. Quenton Nelson‘s former sidekick, however, should still have a couple of quality years left. Any sort of interior stability will be a change for the Giants, who have dealt with extensive injuries and underperformance inside since their Super Bowl-era O-lines splintered.

Feliciano, also 30, comes as a street free agent and clear stopgap measure. The Giants entered the offseason with so many needs it was impossible to allocate appropriate resources to filling each — especially considering the cap issues Schoen and Co. inherited. An ex-fourth-rounder like Glowinski, Feliciano has battled injuries in each of the past two seasons (15 absences in that span). But he did start 16 games for the 2019 Bills, establishing himself as a capable first-stringer after spending four years as a Raiders backup. Center could be an area Big Blue tries harder to address in 2023, but for now, Feliciano will be the team’s pivot.

Taylor is an upgrade over Mike Glennon, having been a Week 1 starter in six of the past seven seasons. Two of those years saw Taylor quickly replaced, and last season finished with Davis Mills usurping the veteran signal-caller in Houston. But Taylor has a much better resume than previous Jones backups Glennon or Colt McCoy. Given Jones’ injury history and ties to a previous regime, Taylor getting extended run this season should not be ruled out. Though, Taylor seeing the field often will both signal another plan gone awry and mark a precursor to a big QB swing in 2023.

It is interesting Schoen sought the ex-Buffalo starter, considering the current Bills regime ditched Taylor after one season — a 2017 slate that included a strange one-game benching for Nathan Peterman. But Taylor, set to play for a sixth NFL team at 33, is the only Giants passer signed beyond 2022.

Notable losses:

Stature-wise, the Giants’ departures were far more notable than their additions. No place felt the cost-cutting effects more than the secondary, which lost its two most experienced players. Given a three-year, $45MM deal in 2020, Bradberry played well in his first Giants slate and worked as the team’s No. 1 cornerback during both his New York seasons. The Giants spent several weeks dangling the Gettleman-era pickup in trades and had a deal in place with the Texans, who nixed it because they sought a Bradberry extension as part of the swap. Bradberry’s eventual release and Eagles arrival creates one of the NFL’s thinnest position groups.

Adoree’ Jackson is a former first-round pick, whom PFF tabbed as a top-20 corner last season. The sixth-year cover man has still missed 17 games over the past two seasons and has never been asked to be a No. 1-type stopper as a pro. Beyond Jackson, the Giants have next to no experience on the outside. Aaron Robinson, a 2021 third-round pick, is the favorite to replace Bradberry. He played 268 snaps during a rookie season that featured an eight-game absence. New York’s slot outlook, featuring Darnay Holmes and third-round rookie Cor’Dale Flott, appears better. But Bradberry’s exit could be quite noticeable this season.

The deeper safety contingent the Giants used to start last year dissipated after Peppers’ early-season injury, but losing Peppers (now with the Patriots) and Ryan (Buccaneers) creates a void on the team’s back line as well. Ryan signed two Giants contracts in 2020, a late-summer free agency accord and a three-year extension worth $31MM on Christmas, and his March release did not save the Giants much. The team did get out of paying a $3MM roster bonus, but its safety corps looks similar to its corner array. Xavier McKinney, though, is a nice place to start. There is not much around him.

At least positional anchors exist at those secondary spots. Engram’s Jacksonville move leaves little at the tight end position. Injuries and inconsistency plagued Engram throughout his five-year Giants run, though there were moments (a 722-yard rookie season, a somewhat surprising 2020 Pro Bowl nod). This was not exactly the best time to be a Giants skill-position player. Eli Manning‘s decline, Daniel Jones‘ struggles, a run of play-callers — a list bottoming out with the team’s Jason Garrett–Freddie Kitchens 2021 setup — and generally bad O-line play hamstrung the Giants’ chain-movers. The Giants gave Akins and Seals-Jones league-minimum deals. The ex-Texans starter (two 400-plus-yard years) at this price could represent value, but cost aside, Engram-to-Akins (or Engram-to-whatever tight end starts) will bring a major talent downgrade in a crucial year for Jones. Tight end is certainly a long-term need.

Solder’s then-record tackle contract (four years, $62MM) in 2018 came a time when the team was desperate for an O-line cornerstone. That contract did well to ensure Gettleman’s front-five rebuild would never take flight. Similar to many Bill Belichick cogs who have departed for big money elsewhere, Solder did not fare well away from New England. The 6-foot-8 blocker was durable for the Giants, minus his 2020 opt-out decision, but never came close to living up to the lucrative deal.

The Glennon-over-McCoy decision may well have gotten Judge fired, with the HC’s dismissal being unexpected as late as January. The Giants oddly opted to move from McCoy to Glennon after 2020, despite the former helping them to an upset win in Seattle and being interested in staying. As McCoy capably replaced Kyler Murray last season, Jones going down with a more serious injury summoned Glennon. The 6-foot-7 passer completed less than 54% of his passes, finished with a 4-to-10 TD-INT ratio and lost all four of his starts. The Giants benched Glennon, bringing in Jake Fromm, who was at the controls for the two infamous quarterback sneaks from inside the Giants’ 5-yard line. That led to John Mara labeling the 2021 season’s conclusion the most embarrassing point in his ownership run.

Draft picks:

1-5: Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE (Oregon)
1-7: Evan Neal, T (Alabama)
2-43: Wan’Dale Robinson, WR (Kentucky)
3-67: Joshua Ezeudu, G (North Carolina)
3-81: Cor’Dale Flott, CB (LSU)
4-112: Daniel Bellinger, TE (San Diego State)
4-114: Dane Belton, S (Iowa)
5-146: Micah McFadden, LB (Indiana)
5-147: D.J. Davidson, DT (Arizona State)
5-173: Marcus McKethan, G (North Carolina)
6-182 Darrian Beavers, LB (Cincinnati)

In the common draft era (1967-present), only 20 teams have made two top-10 picks in a single draft. The Giants used their opportunity, one provided by the previous regime’s trade-down that gave the Bears Justin Fields, to tab two point-of-attack linchpins. The Gettleman-era Giants strangely did not pour many resources into its edge rusher spots, trading Jason Pierre-Paul and Olivier Vernon in consecutive offseasons. Schoen signaled a shift to a more conventional philosophy at this position by making Thibodeaux being his first draftee.

Although this prevented the Giants from having their choice of this draft’s tackle crop, with the Panthers taking Ikem Ekwonu at No. 6, Thibodeaux is a badly needed outside linebacker reinforcement. Thibodeaux finished his junior year at Oregon viewed by many as the draft’s top player, but pre-draft scrutiny related to his effort and attitude dropped the 6-5 edge to the No. 5 slot. Thibodeaux, who combined for 16 sacks in the Ducks’ two non-pandemic-altered seasons, will join 2021 second-round pick Azeez Ojulari as the Giants’ starters outside. DC Don Martindale said Thibodeaux was the top edge player on the team’s board, and although this is common post-draft language, the team is planning to use the ex-Pac-12 star as an inside rusher as well.

Passing on Ekwonu for Thibodeaux, it still looked like the Giants would nab Charles Cross, the player to whom they had been most closely linked during the draft run-up. Revealing something of a smokescreen effort, Big Blue picked Neal, a player rated above Cross almost everywhere. The Giants have struggled to staff their right tackle spot dating all the way back to Kareem McKenzie‘s Super Bowl-years stint ending in 2012. Various investments have been unable to stick at that post. Arriving two years after Andrew Thomas went fourth overall, Neal will give the Giants two top-10 picks at tackle and a potential long-term tandem.

Robinson put together a prolific junior season, catching 104 passes for 1,334 yards. That pick overloads the Giants with slot receivers, with Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney on track to return. With Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton still on the roster, the Giants’ receiver situation could be dubbed a surplus. It could also be labeled a gaggle of unreliable performers.

Then again, New York wideouts have not exactly been positioned to succeed during the 2020s. The team ranked 31st in both scoring and total offense in each of the past two seasons. As the lone member of this quintet acquired by the current regime, Robinson will be the safest bet to be part of the 2023 Giants. Thus far, it looks like Slayton (two 700-plus-yard seasons) has the best odds of being traded this year. That said, the former fifth-round pick could be an insurance option for a Giants team that has a few contributors coming off injuries.

If Ezeudu can overtake incumbent Shane Lemieux, who is also returning from a severe injury, the Giants would have four new O-line starters. Even if Lemieux wins the preseason position battle, Ezeudu being acquired by the Schoen-Daboll duo points to a chance at an extended starter look at some point. The Giants lost both Lemieux and center Nick Gates to season-ending injuries early, and Gettleman-era draftee Will Hernandez is now in Arizona.

Extensions and restructures:

Agreed to pay cut with Sterling Shepard, removing 2023 from WR’s contract
Reduced Blake Martinez‘s 2022 salary from $8.5MM to $1.25MM

Injuries have continued to dog Shepard, who is now finishing off Achilles rehab. The longest-tenured Giant is the team’s lone holdover from the Jerry Reese regime. The former second-round pick has been productive in spurts and accepted a pay cut to stay in New York. Shepard, 29, is now attached to a $1.5MM base salary. The void year used to take a season off Shepard’s contract would tag the Giants with more than $4MM in dead money if the seventh-year wideout is not extended before the 2023 league year starts.

The Giants also used an injury to coax a pay cut from another starter, with Martinez accepting a slash rather than hit free agency coming off an ACL tear. Putting together four consecutive 140-plus-tackle seasons, including his 2020 Giants debut, Martinez is a key chip for a retooling Giants defense. The productive off-ball linebacker joins Shepard in a contract year.

Other:

Hired Joe Schoen as general manager, replacing Dave Gettleman
Hired Brian Daboll as head coach, replacing Joe Judge
Hired Mike Kafka and Don Martindale as offensive, defensive coordinators
Declined fifth-year option on Daniel Jones; picked up Dexter Lawrence‘s 2023 option
Signed 13 UDFAs

Schoen’s work as Brandon Beane‘s right-hand man in Buffalo, assisting on one of the more impressive rebuilds in recent NFL annals, made him an obvious GM candidate. The former Dolphins exec who spent five years with the Bills comes in as the first outside GM hire for the Giants since Hall of Famer George Young in the late 1970s, separating this addition from the likes of Gettleman (who worked in New York extensively prior to his Carolina GM stint), Reese and Ernie Accorsi.

The Giants have gone a ghastly 22-59 over the past five seasons, with both Reese and Gettleman’s efforts bottoming out. Schoen will attempt to reach a Reese-level peak, but unlike when Reese succeeded Accorsi in 2007, championship-caliber pieces do not appear in place. This promises to be a lengthier climb.

A five-year Bills exec, Schoen sought familiarity. Big Blue’s HC hire came down to Daboll and Bills DC Leslie Frazier. The latter had head-coaching experience, but this is new ground for Daboll, whose pre-Buffalo time as an NFL play-caller did not go well. Daboll, 47, was OC for the Browns, Dolphins and Chiefs from 2009-12. Kansas City’s 2012 team infamously ranked last offensively, in a 2-14 season, ahead of Andy Reid reviving the team in 2013. Following that stretch, Daboll worked alongside Judge for four seasons in New England as a tight ends coach.

Josh Allen‘s metamorphosis from a raw talent with accuracy issues into a fully honed superstar thrust Daboll onto the HC radar. Daboll’s arrival should mean Jones will be better positioned to succeed, though the heavily scrutinized Gettleman pick has been trending downward.

Jones threw 24 touchdown passes in 2019 — fifth-most by a rookie in NFL history — despite Manning making three starts that year. He combined for 21 TD throws over the past two years and cratered with a career-worst 41.5 QBR figure last season. This and Jones’ 2021 injury made the Schoen-Daboll duo passing on a $22.4MM option unsurprising. Contract years often change careers, and Jones will have a better O-line and skill-position corps compared to his 2020 and ’21 groups. If Daboll proves a gargantuan step up from Garrett, then the Giants’ long-term QB plans may become Jones-centric again.

In 2020, the Giants deployed a strong quartet of interior defensive linemen. Two of those cogs — Dalvin Tomlinson and B.J. Hill — are gone, with Tomlinson signing with the Vikings and the Bengals pilfering Hill for Price (currently an unsigned UFA) in an August trade. The team gave Leonard Williams a monster extension, after two franchise tags, and now has Lawrence signed through 2023 (via a $13.25MM option). The most effective producer from 2019’s Odell Beckham Jr. trade, Lawrence can be kept on his rookie deal throughout Williams’ through-2023 extension. The new Giants regime can effectively determine how to organize their D-line payments next year.

The Giants interviewed Martindale, 59, for Judge’s job two years ago but will get the veteran DC on the rebound. The Ravens did not retain their four-year defensive play-caller, but prior to last season’s heavily injury-influenced descent, Baltimore sported a top-10 defense in each of Martindale’s previous three seasons. It will be interesting to see how Martindale’s blitz-heavy tendencies play in New York, considering the issues in the secondary.

Kafka, 34, will rise from the Chiefs’ No. 3 offensive coach to Daboll’s top lieutenant. Kafka rose to the position coach level in 2018, when Patrick Mahomes changed the Chiefs’ trajectory. While Kafka profiles as a future HC candidate, his lack of a play-calling role should keep him with the Giants for a multiple seasons. More importantly, the Giants securing a commitment from Daboll will ensure they do not lose their play-caller to another team during this HC tenure.

Top 10 cap charges for 2022:

Leonard Williams, DT: $27.3MM
Kenny Golladay, WR: $21.2MM
Adoree’ Jackson, CB: $9.3MM
Andrew Thomas, T: $8.8MM
Daniel Jones, QB: $8.4MM
Blake Martinez, LB: $7.7MM
Saquon Barkley, RB: $7.2MM
Sterling Shepard, WR: $6.3MM
Kayvon Thibodeaux, OLB: $5.7MM
Evan Neal, T: $4.5MM

Giving Judge, Shurmur and McAdoo two or fewer seasons, the Giants are likely to keep Daboll into the mid-2020s, at least. The team held off on trading Barkley, giving the former superstar-tracked back an interesting opportunity to revive his career. This will be Barkley’s age-25 season, and although injuries have defined his past three years, the former No. 2 overall pick still represents the type of weapon Daboll did not have in Buffalo.

Schoen wading through troubled cap waters point to 2023 as a better gauge of where this operation is headed. For now, the Giants have assembled a more intriguing roster than they featured in recent years. It will be interesting to see how prior-regime cornerstones like Jones and Barkley fare as inherited Daboll centerpieces.

Extension Candidate: Rashan Gary

June 28th, 2022 at 11:58am CST by Adam La Rose

After being one of the more hotly-debated draft picks in the 2019 draft, Rashan Gary is eligible for his second NFL contract. Considering the progress he has made in each of his three seasons with the Packers, he could be in line for a more substantial raise than many would have thought when he entered the league.

The 24-year-old spent three years at Michigan, after being one of the top recruits in the country. That led to significant expectations, but Gary didn’t put up the production many other top edge rushers were able to in his draft class in particular. His sophomore season was his best, as he totalled 58 tackles, including 11.5 for a loss, and 5.5 sacks. Overall, he recorded less than 10 sacks during his time in Ann Arbor.

That represented a major red flag for many in the build-up to the draft. PFF rated him much lower than many of the other pass rushers in the class, including his Michigan teammate Chase Winovich. Still, Gary represented a rare combination of size (six-foot-five, 280 pounds) and athleticism which kept him on the first-round radar. It didn’t come as a shock, therefore, when the Packers drafted him with the No. 12 pick.

That made Gary the fourth edge rusher taken off the board, taken behind the likes of Nick Bosa and Josh Allen. He heard his name called earlier than other, more accomplished college sack artists like Brian Burns and Montez Sweat, however, meaning that he was once again entering the next chapter of his football career with significant expectations. The early portion of his NFL tenure didn’t put concerns about his high draft stock at ease.

As a rookie, Gary appeared in all 16 contests, but he didn’t register any starts. Seeing the field for just one-fourth of the team’s defensive snaps, he totalled 21 tackles and a pair of sacks. He saw a larger workload the following season, and responded with a step forward in production, with five sacks. Likewise, his PFF grade rose incrementally, leading to optimism for the 2021 campaign.

With Za’Darius Smith sidelined for all but one game due to injury, Gary took on a full-time starting role this past year. He thrived in it, posting 9.5 sacks and 28 QB hits en route to a top-five edge rush PFF grade of 89. It presented an interesting dichotomy with Winovich, who, after a promising start to his career in New England, failed to record a sack in 2021 and has since been traded to the Browns.

The aforementioned Smith left in free agency this offseason, as Green Bay turned its attention to extending fellow veteran Preston Smith. He and Gary are in line to start once again in 2022, meaning the latter will have the opportunity to repeat his performance from last season. Knowing that, it came as little surprise when the Packers exercised Gary’s fifth-year option, keeping him under contract for the next two campaigns. He will have a cap hit of just over $5MM in 2022, a figure which will jump to $10.9MM the following year.

If he is able to continue his career ascension, Gary will represent one of the better values at the edge rusher position in the league at that cost, as 17 players at that spot currently average at least $15MM per season. Given his relatively late blooming, however, it would be understandable for the Packers to wait at least one more year to begin serious extension talks. The team’s overall financial situation in the near future will also, of course, be an important factor in this situation.

The Packers have more cap space than most teams at this point with respect to 2022, after trading away Davante Adams and restructuring a number of large contracts. However, the outlook is more murky beyond this coming season. Gary will need a new contract no later than 2024, by which point Aaron Jones, David Bakhtiari and Kenny Clark will each be entering the final (non-void) year of their respective deals. How the team handles those pacts will no doubt affect their ability to extend Gary at a significant rate.

Gary is aware of the importance of this season as it relates to his next contract. When speaking on the matter however, he said, via Sports Illustrated’s Bill Huber, “When it comes to money, that’s something I don’t worry about. I’m here to play football and I’m here to be the best player I can for this team.”

Still, he called a lucrative extension a “dream… But I’ve got to keep my head down and work and not look too far ahead or all this talk is just talk.”

Offseason In Review: Denver Broncos

June 27th, 2022 at 7:05pm CST by Sam Robinson

After making five straight playoff berths from 2011-15, a stretch that included four consecutive AFC byes and two Super Bowl appearances, the Broncos have drifted well off that pace. Years in quarterback wilderness followed Peyton Manning‘s 2016 retirement. But the 2022 offseason represents a significant step toward the franchise moving back onto the contender track.

This season should feature the Broncos as a more formidable operation, and it doubles as a chance to see how promising Denver’s oft-discussed skill-position corps really is. A loaded AFC West hovers over Denver’s offseason rise, but the franchise has clear reasons for optimism. A team frequently labeled as a QB away from mattering in the grand scheme now has its coveted passer.

Trades:

Acquired QB Russell Wilson from Seahawks for TE Noah Fant, DL Shelby Harris, QB Drew Lock, 2022 first- and second-round picks, 2023 first- and second-rounders, and a 2022 fifth-rounder

Linked to Aaron Rodgers for nearly a year, the Broncos began this offseason’s trade avalanche by completing a deal for a quarterback five years younger. Denver was never linked as a true Deshaun Watson suitor, and its 2021 Matthew Stafford offer was far less enticing than the one the Rams made. But the Broncos had also not been closely connected to Wilson, who left the team off his list of acceptable trade destinations during the 2021 offseason but included them (albeit quietly) later in the year. He will now have a chance to craft an interesting second act.

The Seahawks bailed midway through their franchise quarterback’s third contract, not eager to pay the new going rate for the 33-year-old star whose current $35MM-per-year deal topped the market at the time (April 2019). This opened the door for the Broncos to fill one of the NFL’s longest-standing needs. Other teams pursued the decorated QB — from the Panthers to the Eagles to the Commanders, with Washington offering three first-rounders — but Wilson only ended up waiving his no-trade clause for the Broncos.

If 2020’s Kendall Hinton-quarterbacked contest is counted, the Broncos match Washington with an NFL-most 11 starting QBs since 2016. An inability to generate above-average QB play through trades (Joe Flacco, Teddy Bridgewater), free agency (Case Keenum) or the draft (Lock, Paxton Lynch) dragged Denver from an AFC power to a team with a lower-middle-class ceiling. This descent prompted second-year GM George Paton to fork over one of the biggest trade hauls in NFL history — though a package not quite as valuable as some expected — to make a clear upgrade.

The quarterback that helped Seattle decimate a depleted Denver team in Super Bowl XLVIII, Wilson grew into a top-flight passer in the years that followed. While the Seahawks transitioned from a team built around the Legion of Boom to a Wilson-centric operation, Pete Carroll insisted on keeping a run-oriented offense in place. The Seahawks also frequently skimped on offensive line investments. The Broncos do not boast a high-end O-line, either, but this could be the deepest collection of skill-position talent Wilson has enjoyed. Injuries and inconsistent QB play have limited Denver’s armada of highly drafted receivers (feat. steady ex-UDFA Tim Patrick) from making much of an impact. The Courtland Sutton–Jerry Jeudy–K.J. Hamler trio appears set for its most relevant NFL stretch.

Coming back after just three games from his right middle finger tendon rupture, Wilson did not look himself for much of the season’s second half. He finished with a career-low 54.7 QBR, but the ex-Seattle cornerstone represented the main reason the post-Super Bowl XLIX Seahawk editions remained contenders. Wilson put up his first two 4,000-yard seasons in 2019 and ’20 and eclipsed 30 touchdown passes from 2017-20, topping out with 40 in 2020. The Broncos have surpassed 20 TD passes as a team just once in the past seven seasons. They have not ranked in the top half of the league in scoring or total offense in that span. These stats may well come up during Wilson extension talks.

Set to tailor their offense to the relocated passer’s strengths, the Broncos will bet on Wilson bouncing back in a Nathaniel Hackett-led attack likely to feature more passing opportunities compared to the future Hall of Famer’s previous setup. From 2012-21, the Seahawks ranked 32nd in pass attempts — by a wide margin — with 30.4 per game. This season will double as a referendum on the Seahawks’ Wilson-era strategy, at least in the years since Marshawn Lynch‘s prime ended, and a chance for the 11th-year QB to show he is capable of thriving in a pass-first offense for an extended stretch.

Notable signings:

Randy Gregory, LB: Five years, $70MM. $28MM guaranteed
D.J. Jones, DL: Three years, $30MM. $20MM guaranteed
Josey Jewell, LB: Two years, $11MM. $6MM guaranteed.
K’Waun Williams, CB. Two years, $5.2MM. $2.5MM guaranteed.
Melvin Gordon, RB. One year, $2.5MM. $2.25MM guaranteed.
Billy Turner, T: One year, $2.5MM. $2.25MM guaranteed.
Kareem Jackson, S. One year, $2MM. $2MM guaranteed.
Tom Compton, OL. One year, $2.25MM. $1.5MM guaranteed.
DeShawn Williams, DL. One year, $1.17MM. $200K guaranteed.
Alex Singleton, LB. One year, $1.12MM. $150K guaranteed.
Eric Tomlinson, TE. One year, $1.44MM. $100K guaranteed.
Josh Johnson, QB. One year. $1.22MM. $100K guaranteed.

Last year’s Von Miller trade afforded the Broncos flexibility to reach deep into their draft assets to acquire Wilson, but it left the team with its most glaring edge need since Miller’s 2011 arrival. While rumors emerged about the Broncos pulling a Yankees-like Aroldis Chapman maneuver — trading a player at the deadline and then re-signing him the following offseason — they went with Gregory at a lower rate. Gregory reneged on a Cowboys contract at the 11th hour, spurning his seven-year (off-and-on) employer due to language that made it easier to void guarantees.

Signing the former suspension mainstay is a gamble for the Broncos; the 2015 second-rounder has been banned four times for substance-abuse policy violations. Between the 2016, ’17 and ’19 seasons, Gregory combined for two games. This could give him a “young 29”-type presence, due to limited wear and tear, but Gregory also missed time with a calf injury and has been limited this offseason due to shoulder surgery. Still, Gregory’s early-season surge in 2021 (five sacks, 11 QB hits and two forced fumbles in a four-game span), before his calf issue paused that stretch, created a live market. How Gregory lives up to his first notable NFL contract will determine the Broncos’ post-Miller pass-rushing outlook.

The Broncos now feature an interesting edge situation, one that houses former top-five pick Bradley Chubb, frequent fill-in starter Malik Reed and second-round pick Nik Bonitto. But if Gregory cannot recapture the near-All-Pro-caliber form he showed early last season, Denver’s plan could crumble. If Gregory can craft a post-Dallas prime arc, the Broncos having him tied to a $14MM-per-year pact — at a time when 21 edge rushers out-earn him — would present a roster-building advantage.

Jones stands to replace Harris as a 3-4 defensive end who will spend most of his time inside. The former 49ers fifth-rounder broke through as a run defender last season, representing a difficult blocking assignment. His presence, along with contract-year five-technique Dre’Mont Jones, should help Gregory, Chubb and Co. D.J. Jones, 27, is also light on stats for an eight-figure-per-year player. Denver’s front office is betting on higher peaks being ahead for both he and Gregory. The 2021 Broncos finished 20th in defensive DVOA, a figure that views their third-place total-defense ranking with skepticism, and 28th in true pressure rate last season — one with minimal Miller and Chubb contributions. Paying up for D-line help made sense through these lenses.

Although Bryce Callahan was effective when on the field for the Broncos, the $7MM-per-year slot defender became one of the NFL’s most injury-prone players while in Denver. The 49ers’ slot cover man for the past five years, Williams poses a cheaper replacement. Williams, 31 in July, has been one of the better slot players in recent years. He has combined to allow two touchdowns as the closest defender in coverage since 2019.

Gordon, 29, re-signing will irk fantasy GMs come August, and ill-timed fumbles have dinged his approval rating with his real team’s fanbase. But the former first-round pick has averaged north of 4.5 yards per carry in each of his two Broncos seasons (10 touchdowns apiece). Gordon’s return also stands to prevent physical runner Javonte Williams from overuse, which teams eyeing post-rookie-deal partnerships with running backs must consider early. The Broncos initially signed Gordon to a two-year, $16MM deal. Having the ex-Charger back at $2.5MM should prove a nice value play.

Vic Fangio-era starters Jewell and Jackson are stopgaps at this point. The Broncos have not made a true inside linebacker investment since their 2016 Brandon Marshall extension. The 2022 team should be much deeper on the edge, especially after a curious move of shifting 2021 inside starter Baron Browning to OLB. Its Jewell-led ILB corps — one that also houses low-salaried supporting casters in Singleton and Jonas Griffith — could become an issue. Jackson will be one of the league’s oldest non-QB starters, at 34, but he has played effectively since making the full-time corner-to-safety switch upon moving to Denver three years ago. He adds a cost-effective starter alongside Justin Simmons, the NFL’s fourth-highest-paid safety.

The winner of this summer’s Compton-Turner competition will be the Broncos’ 10th Week 1 right tackle in 10 seasons. Since Denver relocated Orlando Franklin to guard in 2014, stability has proven elusive on the right edge of its O-line. This streak could run to 11 in 2023, with Turner and Compton on one-year deals. PFF graded Compton as a top-20 tackle last season, when he filled in for an injured Mike McGlinchey in San Francisco, while Turner scored a semi-lucrative Packers contract on the back of a solid contract-year run with the 2018 Broncos. Although Turner missed minicamp due to injury, his experience in Hackett’s offense likely makes him the favorite to start. The loser here would represent quality swing depth. Compton and Turner have guard experience, but the Broncos have a few inside options they are considering to start the Hackett era.

Wilson has missed just three games in 10 seasons, lessening the need for a quality backup. Still, the Broncos going with Johnson is interesting given his historically nomadic career and his roles in recent years. The journeyman (putting it mildly; he has been with 17 teams across four leagues) is being given a chance as a primary backup, after spending much of his career bouncing on and off rosters. Johnson, 36, did not see regular-season action from 2019-20 and has played in four leagues — the NFL, United Football League, Alliance of American Football and XFL 2.0 — since being a 2008 fifth-round pick. He saw action for the Jets and Ravens last year, stepping in to complete 67% of his passes at 7.6 yards per attempt. Brett Rypien, a 2019 UDFA who was part of the Broncos’ aforementioned 11 QBs to start a game since 2016, remains on the roster as well.

Notable losses:

Teddy Bridgewater, QB
Bryce Callahan, CB
Noah Fant, TE
Kyle Fuller, CB
Nate Hairston, CB
Shelby Harris, DL
Alexander Johnson, LB
Drew Lock, QB
Bobby Massie, T
Stephen Weatherly, DE
Kenny Young, LB

Bridgewater’s second concussion of 2021, coming against the Bengals in Week 14, essentially closed the book on the Broncos’ playoff hopes. While the limited passer’s hot start proved to be somewhat of a mirage, Bridgewater played hurt and had moments throughout the season.

Fangio’s staff only inserted Lock as a last resort last season. The 2020 season’s INT leader, despite missing three games, Lock will have a legitimate chance to succeed Wilson in Seattle. Last year marked Lock’s smoothest offseason, after a 2020 OC change and the pandemic keeping players offsite until training camp. The former second-rounder’s failure to beat out Bridgewater helped seal his fate in Denver.

Pro Football Focus consistently rated Johnson as a top-performing off-ball linebacker, slotting him as a top-five player at his position in 2019 and 2021. Though, Johnson went down midway through last season with a torn pec. Johnson helped stabilize the Broncos’ defense upon moving into the lineup early in the 2019 season but profiled as more run-downs thumper than coverage ‘backer. That old-school skillset is not valued much in today’s game. It is still surprising Johnson has not found a home, but the first-time UFA is already 30. Time is running out for the late-arriving NFLer to cash in beyond his 2021 RFA tender. If the thin Broncos ILB corps underwhelms during camp, might a short-term Johnson reunion be considered?

One of the team’s most popular players, Harris found a home as part of Vance Joseph‘s defenses in the late 2010s and secured a three-year, $27MM extension during Paton’s first months in the GM chair. The Broncos will miss the veteran’s versatility and threat of pass deflections (25 since 2017), but D.J. Jones may be an upgrade. Rodgers trade rumors frequently included the Broncos giving up one of their top three wideouts. The Wilson deal only requiring a Fant inclusion could be a seminal moment for the Broncos, who have Sutton and Patrick tied to now-team-friendly extensions.

Draft picks:

2-64: Nik Bonitto, LB (Oklahoma)
3-80: Greg Dulcich, TE (UCLA)
4-115: Damarri Mathis, CB (Pitt)
4-116: Eyioma Uwazurike, DL (Iowa State)
5-152: Delarrin Turner-Yell, S (Oklahoma)
5-162: Montrell Washington, WR (Samford)
5-171: Luke Wattenberg, OL (Washington)
6-206: Matt Henningsen, DE (Wisconsin)
7-232: Faion Hicks, CB (Wisconsin)

One of this draft’s quickest pass rushers, Bonitto gives the Broncos a deep edge-rushing contingent. He totaled 16 sacks over the past two seasons and profiles as a potential long-term Gregory complementary rusher.

Both Chubb and Reed are due for free agency in 2023. With each being a John Elway-era investment, how the Broncos arrange a roster with these two and Bonitto will be interesting come August. Reed’s low-end RFA tender ($2.43MM) could make him a trade candidate, especially with Paton-era pickups Browning and Jonathon Cooper looming as edge backups. But Chubb and Gregory’s injury histories should induce the Broncos to place a premium on OLB depth when they set their 53-man roster.

Albert Okwuegbunam is going into a contract year, giving Dulcich an onramp to be Wilson’s long-term tight end. With tight end learning curves proving steep in most cases, Dulcich having a season to develop alongside Okwuegbunam may be critical. The younger tight end does not have the ex-Mizzou pass catcher’s 4.4-second 40-yard dash speed, but Dulcich arriving as a Paton-Hackett investment points to him being given every opportunity to show he can be a long-term piece. He of back-to-back seasons averaging north of 17 yards per catch at UCLA, the first a 517-yard slate despite a pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Dulcich should be part of Denver’s 2022 equation this season before taking on a bigger role in 2023.

Extensions and restructures:

Graham Glasgow reduces 2022 base salary from $8.4MM to $3.1MM

Other:

Nathaniel Hackett hired as head coach, replacing Vic Fangio
Justin Outten, Ejiro Evero sign on to be Denver’s offensive and defensive coordinators
Rob Walton enters into sale agreement to purchase team
John Elway shifts to consultant role
Dom Capers joins staff as senior defensive assistant
Signed 13 UDFAs

Winning out over fellow finalists Dan Quinn and Kevin O’Connell, Hackett has completed a successful rebound after being fired from his post as Jaguars OC in 2018. Hackett calling plays for the 2017 Jaguars, helping a Blake Bortles-quarterbacked team to the Super Bowl LII precipice, aged remarkably well given what has happened in Jacksonville since. The Jags ranked fifth in total offense and sixth in scoring in 2017, despite the team losing No. 1 wideout Allen Robinson in Week 1.

After that operation fell apart the following season, Hackett resurfaced as a key voice for a Packers team that rebounded under Matt LaFleur. Rodgers has praised Hackett frequently, and it is undeniable the second-generation NFL coach had a hand in the future Hall of Famer’s back-to-back MVPs. This will be Hackett’s first time as a primary play-caller since Jacksonville, however, adding to the intrigue surrounding the now-Wilson-led Denver offense.

Hackett, 42, hired coordinators light on experience — particularly on the offensive side. After the Packers blocked the new Broncos HC from poaching offensive line coach (and now-Green Bay OC) Adam Stenavich, Green Bay also stopped wide receivers coach Jason Vrable from interviewing for the Denver OC job. Outten, Green Bay’s previous tight ends coach, then landed the Denver OC gig. Hackett prioritizing familiarity, as evidenced by college teammate and longtime friend Evero being hired as DC, might be a risk for the Broncos. Outten, 38, only has three years of NFL position-coaching experience. Prior to 2019, he was an entry-level assistant in Atlanta.

Hackett calling plays will give Outten some cover. Evero, 41, will succeed Fangio, one of this era’s premier defensive minds, in running the other side of the ball. The Rams promoted Evero, their four-year safeties coach, to secondary coach in 2021. A one-year Evero coworker in Los Angeles and a one-year Denver assistant, Brandon Staley did land his Rams DC gig with less NFL experience. And Evero’s star could be on a similar rise. Denver’s collective coordinator inexperience is probably not receiving enough attention this offseason, though the team has produced a few bigger storylines.

One of those came this month, when Walton’s group shattered David Tepper‘s NFL-record bid for a franchise. Rob Walton, a 77-year-old son of Walmart founder Sam Walton, will become the NFL’s richest owner by a wide margin. With a net worth of approximately $70 billion, Rob Walton more than quadruples the value of the second-wealthiest NFL owner (Tepper). This may prove relevant soon.

With the Browns’ Watson contract potentially changing the way teams do business with quarterbacks, Wilson — whose 2015 and 2019 Seahawks extension negotiations proved eventful — could make a logical push to top Watson’s $46MM AAV and $230MM fully guaranteed sum. The Broncos might be prepared to table Wilson talks until 2023, his contract year, but such a wait could lead to negotiations commencing after another shift in the QB market. Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson may be extended between now and 2023. Waiting has benefited QBs recently — evidenced by Dak Prescott‘s strategy. Considering the Broncos’ QB struggles in recent years and factoring in the new-look market at the position, Wilson agent Mark Rodgers — who has one NFL client — figures to reference Watson’s deal to an ownership group that would have no issue unearthing funds for such a guarantee.

Top 10 cap charges for 2022:

Russell Wilson, QB: $24MM
Garett Bolles, T: $21MM
Justin Simmons, S: $18.85MM
Ronald Darby, CB: $12.82MM
Bradley Chubb, LB: $12.71MM
Graham Glasgow, OL: $6.1MM
Randy Gregory, LB: $5.6MM
Courtland Sutton, WR: $5.33MM
Pat Surtain II, CB: $4.76MM
Tim Patrick, WR: $4.61MM

Early returns on Paton’s 2021 draft led to some optimism ahead of the GM’s second year, and the Wilson acquisition raises the veteran executive’s profile while brightening the spotlight on the Broncos’ season. The franchise toiled in anonymity for a while, but its 2022 schedule is full of primetime windows. Elway’s inability to land a Manning successor resulted in his Super Bowl 50 nucleus’ Denver tenures ending meekly. Will the roster the Broncos have steadily rebuilt end up giving Wilson a better chance to make a true Super Bowl push?

Poll: How Should Panthers Proceed At QB?

June 23rd, 2022 at 1:58pm CST by Sam Robinson

Without a long-term quarterback plan since injuries began to keep Cam Newton off the field, the Panthers have attempted to land big fish at the position for a bit. But they have been unable to do so, leaving the team with a major question at the game’s premier position in a rather important year for Matt Rhule.

Carolina made serious efforts to trade for Matthew Stafford, offering a first-round pick and change, and Deshaun Watson, whom the team was linked to for over a year. Neither panned out, with the Rams swooping in late for a player who has since become a Super Bowl-winning QB. Although the Falcons were believed to be the second-place finishers for Watson, the Panthers also balked at the $230MM guarantee the Browns authorized. An inquiry into Russell Wilson‘s status went nowhere, with the longtime Seahawks QB prioritizing a Denver move.

The Panthers still have Sam Darnold, whom they acquired for three draft choices — including a second-round pick — last year. Darnold, 25, struggled through an injury-interrupted 2021 season, putting his status as Carolina’s 2022 QB in doubt. But the Panthers, upon trading for the former Jets top-three pick, exercised the scuffling passer’s fifth-year option. Darnold is guaranteed $18.9MM this year, and Rhule has praised his work this offseason.

The primary reason for the frequent Carolina-centric headlines this offseason, Baker Mayfield, 27, remains on the team’s radar. An early report this offseason indicated neither the Panthers nor Mayfield were on-board with a trade that moved the former No. 1 overall pick to Charlotte, but the NFC South team has come around. The Panthers have been by far the team most closely connected to Mayfield, having engaged with the Browns in trade talks during the draft and resuming them recently.

How Mayfield’s fully guaranteed $18.9MM salary would be divvied up would seem a somewhat minor hiccup, at least compared to the prospect of making a QB upgrade, but that component has stalled the talks for several weeks. The Browns were believed to offering to pay barely $3MM of Mayfield’s salary during the mid-draft talks, but they have since upped that figure to around $10MM. The Panthers have wanted the Browns to pay nearly $14MM of the figure. Cleveland holds the NFL’s most cap space, with Carolina at No. 2. It would seemingly benefit the Panthers to make this deal soon to give Mayfield as much time as possible to learn Ben McAdoo‘s playbook, and the Seahawks are lurking in the event Mayfield is cut.

Jimmy Garoppolo looms as an option as well, but Carolina is not believed to be interested in trading for him. The four-plus-year 49ers starter is tied to a $26.9MM base salary — one that becomes fully guaranteed in Week 1. The Panthers would be interested if the 49ers cut him, though the 30-year-old passer is coming off a three-injury season — one culminating with a throwing-shoulder surgery that paused his trade market.

Teams can certainly hold out to see if the 49ers — who have Deebo Samuel and Nick Bosa extensions on their docket but hold little in cap space — blink on Garoppolo’s salary ahead of his guarantee vesting. But the Panthers waiting that long runs the risk of Garoppolo not joining the team until just before the regular season. That would not put him in good position to succeed. Although frequently scrutinized, Garoppolo did rank 12th in QBR in 2019. That Super Bowl-qualifying campaign also marked his only healthy season in the past four.

Ranking 29th in 2021 QBR, Darnold trailed a hobbled Mayfield (27th) last season. Mayfield’s best QBR season (2020, when he ranked 10th) outpaces Darnold’s by a notable margin. A 25th-place finish in 2019 is Darnold’s best mark, and although he has not been given a favorable draw in four seasons, the USC product teeters on the bust cliff. That said, Mayfield’s 2020 is the outlier in his past three seasons, a span that included a 2019 regression and the injury-plagued 2021 that is leading him out of Cleveland.

The Panthers have outfitted Darnold with a better offensive line this year, and a healthy Christian McCaffrey would make a difference. But are Darnold (or third-rounder Matt Corral, who profiles as a longer-term project) and healthy versions of Mayfield and Garoppolo close enough in ability to venture into training camp without Carolina making a move? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this situation in the comments section.

How should the Panthers proceed at quarterback?

Trade for Baker Mayfield 37.33% (645 votes)

Wait for Jimmy Garoppolo to be cut 25.93% (448 votes)

Stick with Sam Darnold 23.26% (402 votes)

Start Matt Corral 13.48% (233 votes)

Total Votes: 1,728

Extension Candidate: David Montgomery

June 19th, 2022 at 8:59pm CST by Adam La Rose

In recent years, a select number of running backs have received sizeable second contracts. Given his performances early in his career, and his importance to the Bears’ offense, David Montgomery could be the next in line for a new deal.

The 25-year-old had a productive college career at Iowa State. In his final two years in particular, he took on a heavy workload, ranking second and first in the Big 12 in carries in 2017 and 2018, respectively. He put up similar numbers across his sophomore and junior campaigns, totalling 2,362 rushing yards, an additional 453 yards through the air and 24 touchdowns.

That production made him one of the highest-rated backs in the 2019 draft class. He was firmly on Chicago’s radar, and the Bears traded up to N0. 73 to select him. As a result of the Khalil Mack trade, Montgomery represented the team’s top pick that year, something which heightened expectations as he entered the league. During that offseason, the Bears traded away Jordan Howard and signed Mike Davis, teaming the veteran with Tarik Cohen.

Montgomery spent his rookie season splitting snaps with latter in particular. He was still able to start eight games and total over 1,000 scrimmage yards, however. That made it an easy transition for him to take over as a workhorse back in 2020, when Cohen began experiencing the injury troubles which limited him to three games that year, and cost him the entire 2021 campaign. Montgomery had the best season of his career to date, ranking fifth in the NFL with 1,070 rushing yards.

Having demonstrated his abilities both on the ground and in the passing game, expectations were once again high for the five-foot-eleven, 224-pounder heading into 2021. The Bears’ offense still featured Allen Robinson and was in line for a significant change at quarterback, with the team having drafted Justin Fields. Those two never generated the chemistry many were expecting, though, leaving Montgomery as the team’s top offensive weapon once again. He was limited to 13 games due to a knee injury, but still managed to record 1,150 scrimmage yards and score seven touchdowns.

In part because of Montgomery’s production on one hand, and the decided lack of consistently effective players around him on the other, he has accounted for nearly one-quarter of the Bears’ offense during his career. That figure ranks seventh in the league across that span, leaving him (especially in the absence of Robinson, who signed with the Rams in free agency) as the undisputed focal point of Chicago’s attack.

How much the team’s front office – now led by general manager Ryan Poles – is willing to pay him, knowing that fact, becomes a central question. In the absence of an extension being signed this summer, much will depend, of course, on his level of play in 2022 under new head coach Matt Eberflus. Fields is now the unquestioned starter, and is understandably expected to take a significant step forward. As for the backfield, Montgomery will be supported by 2021 sixth-rounder Khalil Herbert (who impressed in his rookie season) and, in all likelihood, Trestan Ebner, whom the team drafted this April.

From a financial standpoint, the running back position has seen a notable upward trend in recent years. A total of eight backs are now under contract for at least $12MM per season, from 2016 draftees Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry to, most recently, Nick Chubb. Given his production, Montgomery may be the likeliest candidate for an extension amongst members of the 2019 class (the other most notable ones being Josh Jacobs, who had his fifth-year option declined by the Raiders, and Miles Sanders, who hasn’t been given as large of a workload by the Eagles).

On the final year of his rookie contract, Montgomery will earn a base salary of $2.8MM, while carrying a slightly higher cap hit. The rebuilding Bears rank third in the league in cap space right now, and first in projected space for 2023, so affording even an above-market extension likely wouldn’t be problematic. As detailed by ESPN’s Courtney Cronin, Montgomery isn’t focusing on his financial future heading into his contract year, however.

“At the end of the day, whether I’m going into my second year or my first year, I’ve still got to play football,” he said. “I could really care less about contracts, the contract terms and things, but I’m excited to be here for another year and play with my guys too.”

Free Agent Stock Watch: WR Willie Snead

June 18th, 2022 at 8:48pm CST by Adam La Rose

A look at Willie Snead‘s early statlines in the NFL suggest that he would have put together a lengthy career as at least a high-end No. 2 receiver by this point of his tenure. That hasn’t taken place, and his 2022 season has left him on the open market deep into the offseason.

The former UDFA found a home with the Saints in 2015. In his first two years with New Orleans, he put up significant numbers: 141 catches, 1,879 yards and seven touchdowns. Those campaigns also saw him record two of his three highest yards-per-catch averages, as he demonstrated his ability to move the chains on a consistent basis. Things have taken a significant turn since then, however.

After an eight-catch season in 2017, the Ball State product was on the move in free agency. He joined the Ravens via an offer sheet, as one of three veteran additions the team made to its receiving corps. Snead joined Michael Crabtree and John Brown in Baltimore, who had Joe Flacco as the starting quarterback at the time. By the midway point of that season, though, Lamar Jackson had taken over, beginning the team’s transition to the run-heavy offense which remains in place to this day.

Snead still received 95 targets that year, totalling 62 receptions and 651 yards. It earned him a one-year extension in 2019, but he has yet to produce at that level in the proceeding years. Competing for looks in Baltimore’s low-target offense with the likes of Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, Snead recorded 64 catches and 771 yards between 2019 and 2020. To no surprise, he was on the move again last spring.

The five-foot-11, 200-pounder signed with the Raiders, a decision which further reduced his offensive role. In Las Vegas – a passing attack centered around Darren Waller and, in 2021 in particular, Hunter Renfrow – he played just 38 offensive snaps. Seeking a new destination and a larger workload, Snead asked for, and was granted, his release in October. He finished the year in Carolina, one of his brief NFL homes before those highly-productive years in New Orleans.

In a recent interview with Tyler Dunne of GoLong.com, Snead, 29, made his case for a free agent deal, making sure to stress his need for an effective team fit. “I feel like I’ve been in every type of offense this league can throw at me,” he said. “And I’ve mastered all of it. Going into another year… I’ve got four or five years left in me. I want my next place to be the right place so I’m not getting lost again.”

Snead offers a different skillset to some of the other wideouts still on the market, such as Julio Jones and Will Fuller. A reunion with Baltimore would make sense on paper, given the team’s lack of experience in its receiving corps, but the nature of his departure (along with remarks he made about the team’s passing scheme in the aforementioned interview) would surely rule that out. Indianapolis is another team which has been named as a potential landing spot for a veteran, though T.Y. Hilton represents the likeliest candidate for a deal with the Colts.

The Titans could be in need of a complimentary wideout, given the overhaul of their WR room this offseason. With Robert Woods coming off of a torn ACL, Tennessee could look to add a low-cost slot option to take attention away from first-rounder Treylon Burks. In any event, Snead, who added that he is “the furthest thing from retiring,” should find a new home in the coming weeks on a short-term deal to rebuild his value.

Poll: How Will Ravens’ Lamar Jackson Negotiations End?

June 17th, 2022 at 5:12pm CST by Sam Robinson

Since the 2011 CBA reshaped rookie contracts and extension windows, Lamar Jackson is traversing one of the most original paths of any rookie-deal player. While Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott laid the groundwork for quarterback patience leading to bigger deals down the road, Jackson is a former first-round pick — thus delaying this process — and proceeding without an agent.

The fifth-year quarterback resumed extension talks with the Ravens this week. This saga veered into new territory this offseason, when Steve Bisciotti, Eric DeCosta and John Harbaugh all indicated Jackson was not prioritizing an extension. The former MVP echoed his usual pro-Baltimore comments this week by saying he expects to finish his career with the Ravens. Even for Jackson to play into his late 20s with the team, some significant business must be completed.

While the 25-year-old star QB is coming off a down year — at least compared to his stratospheric 2019 and solid 2020 — he still made his second Pro Bowl. Despite throwing a career-high 13 interceptions (in just 12 starts), Jackson has seen Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson change the quarterback market by reeling in Patrick Mahomes less than two years after his market-reshaping extension.

Watson’s contract — an unprecedented five-year, $230MM deal that came fully guaranteed — stands to play a role in Jackson’s talks with the Ravens, Kyler Murray‘s with the Cardinals, and pertain to other standout QBs soon up for extensions. Teams will try to treat Watson’s deal as an outlier. Players and agents will not. Jackson said, not in so many words, Watson’s Browns extension is not factoring into his approach with the Ravens, via The Athletic’s Jeff Zrebiec (subscription required).

In speaking to the media for the first time in five months, the Jackson also kept most of his plans close to his vest by using versions of the phrase “we’re in conversations” eight times during his minicamp-wrapping availability session. His non-answer regarding playing this season on his rookie deal — a $23MM fifth-year option sum — was notable. So is the fact he remains on his rookie pact after being extension-eligible for 18 months. This differs wildly from Murray’s blueprint, with the Cardinals’ dual-threat QB wanting a deal ahead of his fourth season. Most modern-era first-round QBs have followed Murray’s path.

Is Jackson’s patience wise? It is difficult to judge his tactics when it is not known what the Ravens are offering. A November 2021 report indicated Jackson was gunning for a Mahomes-level $45MM-per-year contract, while the Ravens were not there. With Watson’s fully guaranteed $46MM-AAV pact coming to pass four months later, Jackson is in a strong position to cash in now. Waiting worked for Prescott, who saw 2016 draft classmates Carson Wentz and Jared Goff sign their extensions in 2019. The Cowboys starter waited until the 2021 March tag deadline to ink a far more lucrative deal (four years, $160MM; $95MM fully guaranteed).

Making the Ravens face the threat of a QB franchise tag price (approximately $35MM) clogging their 2023 payroll could provide Jackson more leverage, but not cashing in now could also hurt his value. Jackson finished 17th in QBR last season — down from first in 2019 and seventh in 2020 — and became a superstar mostly because of his gifts as a runner. The NFL’s single-season QB rushing yardage record holder suffered a sprained ankle that ended his 2021 season early. A 2022 Ravens edition thinner at wide receiver does not figure to reduce Jackson’s run-game involvement much. Jackson’s 615 carries through four seasons are 148 more than any other quarterback in NFL history compiled to that point, with Cam Newton in second. Newton’s shorter-than-expected prime could serve as a warning for Jackson.

Then again, Prescott suffered a severe ankle malady during his 2020 franchise tag season and cashed in months later. The Ravens extended Joe Flacco following his fifth season — by far his most notable, with a Super Bowl XLVII-winning run leading to a then-QB-record deal — but that re-up backfired. Bisciotti already mentioned the Cousins route (two tags and a free agency bid), raising the stakes for these negotiations. As could be expected, the Ravens are not presently entertaining a Jackson trade, Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com notes. If this saga begins down the Prescott path, would the team bail before it approaches the Cousins stage?

How and when will this saga end? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

How will the Ravens resolve the Lamar Jackson situation?

An extension before 2023 free agency 25.12% (209 votes)

2022 extension 20.79% (173 votes)

Jackson plays 2023 on the tag, signs deal in 2024 18.15% (151 votes)

Jackson leaves as a free agent in 2025 16.47% (137 votes)

The Ravens trade Jackson 12.14% (101 votes)

Jackson plays two tagged seasons, signs in 2025 7.33% (61 votes)

Total Votes: 832

This Date In Transactions History: Thomas Davis Signs Extension With Panthers

June 15th, 2022 at 10:10pm CST by Ben Levine

“I now get to officially end my career as a Carolina Panther and that means the world to me.”

That’s how Thomas Davis responded to the two-year extension he inked on this date in 2015. Of course, like most sports stories, things rarely work out as expected.

The 14th overall pick out of Georgia back in 2005, Davis was a key member of the Panthers defense for more than a decade. While the linebacker was limited to only seven games between the 2009 and 2011 seasons, he otherwise missed only nine contests in his 11 healthy seasons with the organization. By the time 2015 came around, Davis had already racked up nearly 750 tackles to go along with 17.5 sacks, six interceptions, and 13 forced fumbles.

He was a Panthers icon, and with only one year remaining on his contract, he was eager to ink one last deal with the only organization he had ever played for. So, on June 15, 2015, the two sides agreed to a two-year extension that would last through the 2017 campaign. In total, the player earned about $6MM per year on the new deal, which was a modest amount for a linebacker eyeing the end of his career.

In an unpredictable twist, Davis was about to go on the best three-year stretch of his career. During his age-32 campaign in 2015, the veteran earned his first-career All Pro nod and Pro Bowl appearance, and he was wildly productive in three postseason contests. He’d earn Pro Bowl spots in 2016 and 2017, as well. Prior to that 2017 season, Davis inked one more extension, this time for one year. Heading into that 2018 campaign, the linebacker made it clear that it would be his last season.

After sitting out the first four games for violating the league’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs, he ended up starting all 12 of his appearances in 2018, finishing with 79 tackles. That 2018 season ended up being a disappointment for the Panthers; after having made the postseason in four of the previous five seasons, Carolina failed to crack the playoffs after going 7-9. This disappointment apparently influenced Davis to give it another go, but the Panthers weren’t interested in a reunion, with Davis telling reporters that the organization wanted “to go in a different direction” at the position.

“I wanted to be back,” Davis said (via NFL.com). “I wanted to be part of a group that came and just [righted] the wrongs that we had this season. As one of the leaders of this team, I took full responsibility for some of the things that we allowed to happen and the games that we lost consecutively. I wanted to come back and wanted to help fix that. Unfortunately I’m not going to have that opportunity.”

Davis ended up catching on with the Chargers for the 2019 campaign, collecting 112 tackles in 16 starts. After getting into seven games with Washington in 2020, the linebacker decided to hang up his cleats.

While Davis thought he was going to end his career with the Panthers following that 2017 campaign, a late-career breakout changed some things. Fortunately for the player, he still got his wish to retire with the Panthers when he inked a one-year contract with the team in March, 2021.

Poll: Which AFC Team Had Best Offseason?

June 11th, 2022 at 10:11pm CST by Sam Robinson

Due to a flurry of additions, the 2022 AFC presents a crowded competition for playoff and Super Bowl LVII access. Some of the top-tier teams addressed key weaknesses, and several middle-class squads took big swings in respective aims to improve their chances this season.

The fallout paints a picture in which barely any AFCers can be truly counted out for playoff contention. Future Hall of Famers, potential Canton inductees, and Pro Bowlers moving from the NFC — along with various intra-AFC changes — have made for one of the most captivating offseasons in modern NFL annals. While the offseason is not yet complete, most of the acquisition dominoes ahead of training camp have fallen. Which team did the best work?

With Russell Wilson joining the Broncos, the AFC West’s Wilson-Patrick Mahomes–Derek Carr–Justin Herbert quartet appears of the great quarterback armadas any division has fielded in the five-plus-decade divisional era. The Broncos gave up two first-round selections in a five-pick deal but were able to hang onto their young receivers. Denver, which moved to a younger coaching staff headed by first-time HC Nathaniel Hackett and two rookie coordinators, also added defenders Randy Gregory and D.J. Jones. Going from the Teddy Bridgewater–Drew Lock combo to Wilson represents one of the top gains any team made this offseason, but Denver’s divisional competition will not make improvement easy.

Entering the final year in which Herbert must be tied to his rookie contract, the Chargers addressed several needs. They added defensive help in free agency, via J.C. Jackson and Sebastian Joseph -Day, and traded second- and sixth-round picks for Khalil Mack. The team also extended Mike Williams at $20MM per year — days before the wide receiver market dramatically shifted — and drafted right guard Zion Johnson in Round 1.

The Raiders were partially responsible for the wideout market’s explosion, trading first- and second-round picks for Davante Adams and extending him at $28MM per year. That came shortly after the team’s Chandler Jones addition. Las Vegas’ Josh McDaniels–Dave Ziegler regime has greenlit extensions for Reggie McKenzie– and Jon Gruden-era holdovers — from Carr to Maxx Crosby to Hunter Renfrow. Will a Darren Waller deal follow?

Of last season’s conference kingpins, the Chiefs and Titans endured the biggest losses. Hill and Tyrann Mathieu‘s exits will test the six-time reigning AFC West champs, while last year’s No. 1 seed balked at a monster A.J. Brown extension by trading him to the Eagles for a package headlined by a 2022 first-rounder. Both teams did address some needs early in the draft, but the Bengals and Bills look to have definitively improved their rosters.

Cincinnati augmented its bottom-tier offensive line by signing La’el Collins, Alex Cappa and Ted Karras. The defending AFC champions retained almost their entire defense, though Jessie Bates is not especially happy on the franchise tag. Buffalo reloaded as well, adding Von Miller to a defensive line that has lacked a top-end pass rusher for a while. The team swapped out ex-UDFA Levi Wallace for first-round cornerback Kaiir Elam, and James Cook is the Bills’ highest running back draftee since C.J. Spiller 12 years ago. How significant will the Brian Daboll-for-Ken Dorsey OC swap be?

Although Cincy’s AFC North competition made improvements, some caveats come with them. The Ravens filled their center and right tackle spots, with first-rounder Tyler Linderbaum and veteran Morgan Moses, and are now flush with safeties following the arrivals of Marcus Williams and Kyle Hamilton. But Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson situation has reached a strange stage, with the top three Ravens power brokers indicating the former MVP has not shown extension interest. Cleveland landed Amari Cooper for Day 3 draft capital and, on paper, rivaled Denver’s QB upgrade. Historic draft compensation and a shocking $230MM guarantee was required for the Browns to pull it off. But their Deshaun Watson trade has generated considerable drama — to the point the ex-Texans Pro Bowler cannot be considered a lock to play in 2022.

Oddsmakers do not expect the Jaguars’ moves to translate to 2022 contention, but the team did hire a former Super Bowl-winning coach in Doug Pederson and spend wildly for lineup upgrades — from Christian Kirk to Brandon Scherff to Foye Oluokun — and used two first-round picks (Travon Walker, Devin Lloyd) to further upgrade its defense. Going from Urban Meyer to Pederson should offer stability to a franchise that has lacked it, never more so than in 2021.

The Jets chased big-name receivers for weeks but came away with Garrett Wilson in a highly praised three-first-rounder draft. New York’s last-ranked defense now has new pieces in first-rounders Sauce Gardner and Jermaine Johnson, along with DBs Jordan Whitehead and D.J. Reed. Miami made a stunning coaching change by firing Brian Flores, which produced a tidal wave of controversy, but the now-Mike McDaniel-led team also paid up for splashy additions in Hill and Terron Armstead while retaining steady edge rusher Emmanuel Ogbah.

Are there other teams that warrant mention here? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on the new-look AFC in the comments section.

Which AFC team had the best offseason?

Denver Broncos 12.92% (421 votes)

Las Vegas Raiders 11.91% (388 votes)

Miami Dolphins 11.33% (369 votes)

Los Angeles Chargers 10.01% (326 votes)

Cincinnati Bengals 9.36% (305 votes)

New York Jets 8.04% (262 votes)

Buffalo Bills 6.48% (211 votes)

Pittsburgh Steelers 5.68% (185 votes)

Baltimore Ravens 5.06% (165 votes)

Kansas City Chiefs 5.00% (163 votes)

Cleveland Browns 4.21% (137 votes)

Indianapolis Colts 3.65% (119 votes)

Houston Texans 2.46% (80 votes)

New England Patriots 2.12% (69 votes)

Jacksonville Jaguars 1.07% (35 votes)

Tennessee Titans 0.71% (23 votes)

Total Votes: 3,258

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