PFR Originals News & Rumors

Free Agent Stock Watch: WR Willie Snead

June 18th, 2022 at 8:48pm CST by Adam La Rose

A look at Willie Snead‘s early statlines in the NFL suggest that he would have put together a lengthy career as at least a high-end No. 2 receiver by this point of his tenure. That hasn’t taken place, and his 2022 season has left him on the open market deep into the offseason.

The former UDFA found a home with the Saints in 2015. In his first two years with New Orleans, he put up significant numbers: 141 catches, 1,879 yards and seven touchdowns. Those campaigns also saw him record two of his three highest yards-per-catch averages, as he demonstrated his ability to move the chains on a consistent basis. Things have taken a significant turn since then, however.

After an eight-catch season in 2017, the Ball State product was on the move in free agency. He joined the Ravens via an offer sheet, as one of three veteran additions the team made to its receiving corps. Snead joined Michael Crabtree and John Brown in Baltimore, who had Joe Flacco as the starting quarterback at the time. By the midway point of that season, though, Lamar Jackson had taken over, beginning the team’s transition to the run-heavy offense which remains in place to this day.

Snead still received 95 targets that year, totalling 62 receptions and 651 yards. It earned him a one-year extension in 2019, but he has yet to produce at that level in the proceeding years. Competing for looks in Baltimore’s low-target offense with the likes of Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, Snead recorded 64 catches and 771 yards between 2019 and 2020. To no surprise, he was on the move again last spring.

The five-foot-11, 200-pounder signed with the Raiders, a decision which further reduced his offensive role. In Las Vegas – a passing attack centered around Darren Waller and, in 2021 in particular, Hunter Renfrow – he played just 38 offensive snaps. Seeking a new destination and a larger workload, Snead asked for, and was granted, his release in October. He finished the year in Carolina, one of his brief NFL homes before those highly-productive years in New Orleans.

In a recent interview with Tyler Dunne of GoLong.com, Snead, 29, made his case for a free agent deal, making sure to stress his need for an effective team fit. “I feel like I’ve been in every type of offense this league can throw at me,” he said. “And I’ve mastered all of it. Going into another year… I’ve got four or five years left in me. I want my next place to be the right place so I’m not getting lost again.”

Snead offers a different skillset to some of the other wideouts still on the market, such as Julio Jones and Will Fuller. A reunion with Baltimore would make sense on paper, given the team’s lack of experience in its receiving corps, but the nature of his departure (along with remarks he made about the team’s passing scheme in the aforementioned interview) would surely rule that out. Indianapolis is another team which has been named as a potential landing spot for a veteran, though T.Y. Hilton represents the likeliest candidate for a deal with the Colts.

The Titans could be in need of a complimentary wideout, given the overhaul of their WR room this offseason. With Robert Woods coming off of a torn ACL, Tennessee could look to add a low-cost slot option to take attention away from first-rounder Treylon Burks. In any event, Snead, who added that he is “the furthest thing from retiring,” should find a new home in the coming weeks on a short-term deal to rebuild his value.

Poll: How Will Ravens’ Lamar Jackson Negotiations End?

June 17th, 2022 at 5:12pm CST by Sam Robinson

Since the 2011 CBA reshaped rookie contracts and extension windows, Lamar Jackson is traversing one of the most original paths of any rookie-deal player. While Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott laid the groundwork for quarterback patience leading to bigger deals down the road, Jackson is a former first-round pick — thus delaying this process — and proceeding without an agent.

The fifth-year quarterback resumed extension talks with the Ravens this week. This saga veered into new territory this offseason, when Steve Bisciotti, Eric DeCosta and John Harbaugh all indicated Jackson was not prioritizing an extension. The former MVP echoed his usual pro-Baltimore comments this week by saying he expects to finish his career with the Ravens. Even for Jackson to play into his late 20s with the team, some significant business must be completed.

While the 25-year-old star QB is coming off a down year — at least compared to his stratospheric 2019 and solid 2020 — he still made his second Pro Bowl. Despite throwing a career-high 13 interceptions (in just 12 starts), Jackson has seen Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson change the quarterback market by reeling in Patrick Mahomes less than two years after his market-reshaping extension.

Watson’s contract — an unprecedented five-year, $230MM deal that came fully guaranteed — stands to play a role in Jackson’s talks with the Ravens, Kyler Murray‘s with the Cardinals, and pertain to other standout QBs soon up for extensions. Teams will try to treat Watson’s deal as an outlier. Players and agents will not. Jackson said, not in so many words, Watson’s Browns extension is not factoring into his approach with the Ravens, via The Athletic’s Jeff Zrebiec (subscription required).

In speaking to the media for the first time in five months, the Jackson also kept most of his plans close to his vest by using versions of the phrase “we’re in conversations” eight times during his minicamp-wrapping availability session. His non-answer regarding playing this season on his rookie deal — a $23MM fifth-year option sum — was notable. So is the fact he remains on his rookie pact after being extension-eligible for 18 months. This differs wildly from Murray’s blueprint, with the Cardinals’ dual-threat QB wanting a deal ahead of his fourth season. Most modern-era first-round QBs have followed Murray’s path.

Is Jackson’s patience wise? It is difficult to judge his tactics when it is not known what the Ravens are offering. A November 2021 report indicated Jackson was gunning for a Mahomes-level $45MM-per-year contract, while the Ravens were not there. With Watson’s fully guaranteed $46MM-AAV pact coming to pass four months later, Jackson is in a strong position to cash in now. Waiting worked for Prescott, who saw 2016 draft classmates Carson Wentz and Jared Goff sign their extensions in 2019. The Cowboys starter waited until the 2021 March tag deadline to ink a far more lucrative deal (four years, $160MM; $95MM fully guaranteed).

Making the Ravens face the threat of a QB franchise tag price (approximately $35MM) clogging their 2023 payroll could provide Jackson more leverage, but not cashing in now could also hurt his value. Jackson finished 17th in QBR last season — down from first in 2019 and seventh in 2020 — and became a superstar mostly because of his gifts as a runner. The NFL’s single-season QB rushing yardage record holder suffered a sprained ankle that ended his 2021 season early. A 2022 Ravens edition thinner at wide receiver does not figure to reduce Jackson’s run-game involvement much. Jackson’s 615 carries through four seasons are 148 more than any other quarterback in NFL history compiled to that point, with Cam Newton in second. Newton’s shorter-than-expected prime could serve as a warning for Jackson.

Then again, Prescott suffered a severe ankle malady during his 2020 franchise tag season and cashed in months later. The Ravens extended Joe Flacco following his fifth season — by far his most notable, with a Super Bowl XLVII-winning run leading to a then-QB-record deal — but that re-up backfired. Bisciotti already mentioned the Cousins route (two tags and a free agency bid), raising the stakes for these negotiations. As could be expected, the Ravens are not presently entertaining a Jackson trade, Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com notes. If this saga begins down the Prescott path, would the team bail before it approaches the Cousins stage?

How and when will this saga end? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

This Date In Transactions History: Thomas Davis Signs Extension With Panthers

June 15th, 2022 at 10:10pm CST by Ben Levine

“I now get to officially end my career as a Carolina Panther and that means the world to me.”

That’s how Thomas Davis responded to the two-year extension he inked on this date in 2015. Of course, like most sports stories, things rarely work out as expected.

The 14th overall pick out of Georgia back in 2005, Davis was a key member of the Panthers defense for more than a decade. While the linebacker was limited to only seven games between the 2009 and 2011 seasons, he otherwise missed only nine contests in his 11 healthy seasons with the organization. By the time 2015 came around, Davis had already racked up nearly 750 tackles to go along with 17.5 sacks, six interceptions, and 13 forced fumbles.

He was a Panthers icon, and with only one year remaining on his contract, he was eager to ink one last deal with the only organization he had ever played for. So, on June 15, 2015, the two sides agreed to a two-year extension that would last through the 2017 campaign. In total, the player earned about $6MM per year on the new deal, which was a modest amount for a linebacker eyeing the end of his career.

In an unpredictable twist, Davis was about to go on the best three-year stretch of his career. During his age-32 campaign in 2015, the veteran earned his first-career All Pro nod and Pro Bowl appearance, and he was wildly productive in three postseason contests. He’d earn Pro Bowl spots in 2016 and 2017, as well. Prior to that 2017 season, Davis inked one more extension, this time for one year. Heading into that 2018 campaign, the linebacker made it clear that it would be his last season.

After sitting out the first four games for violating the league’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs, he ended up starting all 12 of his appearances in 2018, finishing with 79 tackles. That 2018 season ended up being a disappointment for the Panthers; after having made the postseason in four of the previous five seasons, Carolina failed to crack the playoffs after going 7-9. This disappointment apparently influenced Davis to give it another go, but the Panthers weren’t interested in a reunion, with Davis telling reporters that the organization wanted “to go in a different direction” at the position.

“I wanted to be back,” Davis said (via NFL.com). “I wanted to be part of a group that came and just [righted] the wrongs that we had this season. As one of the leaders of this team, I took full responsibility for some of the things that we allowed to happen and the games that we lost consecutively. I wanted to come back and wanted to help fix that. Unfortunately I’m not going to have that opportunity.”

Davis ended up catching on with the Chargers for the 2019 campaign, collecting 112 tackles in 16 starts. After getting into seven games with Washington in 2020, the linebacker decided to hang up his cleats.

While Davis thought he was going to end his career with the Panthers following that 2017 campaign, a late-career breakout changed some things. Fortunately for the player, he still got his wish to retire with the Panthers when he inked a one-year contract with the team in March, 2021.

Poll: Which AFC Team Had Best Offseason?

June 11th, 2022 at 10:11pm CST by Sam Robinson

Due to a flurry of additions, the 2022 AFC presents a crowded competition for playoff and Super Bowl LVII access. Some of the top-tier teams addressed key weaknesses, and several middle-class squads took big swings in respective aims to improve their chances this season.

The fallout paints a picture in which barely any AFCers can be truly counted out for playoff contention. Future Hall of Famers, potential Canton inductees, and Pro Bowlers moving from the NFC — along with various intra-AFC changes — have made for one of the most captivating offseasons in modern NFL annals. While the offseason is not yet complete, most of the acquisition dominoes ahead of training camp have fallen. Which team did the best work?

With Russell Wilson joining the Broncos, the AFC West’s Wilson-Patrick Mahomes–Derek Carr–Justin Herbert quartet appears of the great quarterback armadas any division has fielded in the five-plus-decade divisional era. The Broncos gave up two first-round selections in a five-pick deal but were able to hang onto their young receivers. Denver, which moved to a younger coaching staff headed by first-time HC Nathaniel Hackett and two rookie coordinators, also added defenders Randy Gregory and D.J. Jones. Going from the Teddy Bridgewater–Drew Lock combo to Wilson represents one of the top gains any team made this offseason, but Denver’s divisional competition will not make improvement easy.

Entering the final year in which Herbert must be tied to his rookie contract, the Chargers addressed several needs. They added defensive help in free agency, via J.C. Jackson and Sebastian Joseph -Day, and traded second- and sixth-round picks for Khalil Mack. The team also extended Mike Williams at $20MM per year — days before the wide receiver market dramatically shifted — and drafted right guard Zion Johnson in Round 1.

The Raiders were partially responsible for the wideout market’s explosion, trading first- and second-round picks for Davante Adams and extending him at $28MM per year. That came shortly after the team’s Chandler Jones addition. Las Vegas’ Josh McDaniels–Dave Ziegler regime has greenlit extensions for Reggie McKenzie– and Jon Gruden-era holdovers — from Carr to Maxx Crosby to Hunter Renfrow. Will a Darren Waller deal follow?

Of last season’s conference kingpins, the Chiefs and Titans endured the biggest losses. Hill and Tyrann Mathieu‘s exits will test the six-time reigning AFC West champs, while last year’s No. 1 seed balked at a monster A.J. Brown extension by trading him to the Eagles for a package headlined by a 2022 first-rounder. Both teams did address some needs early in the draft, but the Bengals and Bills look to have definitively improved their rosters.

Cincinnati augmented its bottom-tier offensive line by signing La’el Collins, Alex Cappa and Ted Karras. The defending AFC champions retained almost their entire defense, though Jessie Bates is not especially happy on the franchise tag. Buffalo reloaded as well, adding Von Miller to a defensive line that has lacked a top-end pass rusher for a while. The team swapped out ex-UDFA Levi Wallace for first-round cornerback Kaiir Elam, and James Cook is the Bills’ highest running back draftee since C.J. Spiller 12 years ago. How significant will the Brian Daboll-for-Ken Dorsey OC swap be?

Although Cincy’s AFC North competition made improvements, some caveats come with them. The Ravens filled their center and right tackle spots, with first-rounder Tyler Linderbaum and veteran Morgan Moses, and are now flush with safeties following the arrivals of Marcus Williams and Kyle Hamilton. But Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson situation has reached a strange stage, with the top three Ravens power brokers indicating the former MVP has not shown extension interest. Cleveland landed Amari Cooper for Day 3 draft capital and, on paper, rivaled Denver’s QB upgrade. Historic draft compensation and a shocking $230MM guarantee was required for the Browns to pull it off. But their Deshaun Watson trade has generated considerable drama — to the point the ex-Texans Pro Bowler cannot be considered a lock to play in 2022.

Oddsmakers do not expect the Jaguars’ moves to translate to 2022 contention, but the team did hire a former Super Bowl-winning coach in Doug Pederson and spend wildly for lineup upgrades — from Christian Kirk to Brandon Scherff to Foye Oluokun — and used two first-round picks (Travon Walker, Devin Lloyd) to further upgrade its defense. Going from Urban Meyer to Pederson should offer stability to a franchise that has lacked it, never more so than in 2021.

The Jets chased big-name receivers for weeks but came away with Garrett Wilson in a highly praised three-first-rounder draft. New York’s last-ranked defense now has new pieces in first-rounders Sauce Gardner and Jermaine Johnson, along with DBs Jordan Whitehead and D.J. Reed. Miami made a stunning coaching change by firing Brian Flores, which produced a tidal wave of controversy, but the now-Mike McDaniel-led team also paid up for splashy additions in Hill and Terron Armstead while retaining steady edge rusher Emmanuel Ogbah.

Are there other teams that warrant mention here? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on the new-look AFC in the comments section.

Extension Candidate: T.J. Hockenson

June 9th, 2022 at 3:50pm CST by Adam La Rose

Tight ends have been in plenty of headlines this offseason, as the position continues its recent upward financial trend. Aside from the players who were franchise tagged recently, one of the top candidates for a long-term deal is T.J. Hockenson.

The soon-to-be 25-year-old made a name for himself at Iowa, a college which has become a TE factory in recent years. He put up a modest 24 receptions during his first season there, facing stiff competition for targets in the form of Noah Fant. Still, he averaged over 13 yards per catch, a figure which – like all others – he was able to improve upon the following year.

In 2018, Hockenson turned 49 receptions into 760 yards and six touchdowns. Other than the touchdown total, his statistics outshone those of Fant; he also showcased the blocking ability which made him the most well-rounded TE in the 2019 draft class. To little surprise, he was given the Mackey Award at the end of the campaign.

Widely considered a lock to be a top-10 pick, the 6-foot-5, 248-pounder ended up going eighth overall to the Lions. That made him the teams’ intended replacement for Eric Ebron, who had departed one year earlier after four seasons with the team. Hockenson showed promise as a rookie, dropping only two passes on 59 targets. His season came to a premature end, though, due to an ankle injury. Given the potential he flashed, and the central role he began to assume in the team’s offense, expectations were high for his second campaign.

2020 didn’t disappoint. Playing a full season, Hockenson was one of only five tight ends to receive 100 targets, putting up 67 catches (which ranked fourth at the position) for 723 yards (third) and six scores (tied for fifth). His performance backed up his draft pedigree and earned him his lone Pro Bowl nod to date.

Injuries became an issue once again last year, however. Hockenson found himself on season-ending IR in December, this time due to thumb surgery. By that point, he had still posted 583 yards and four touchdowns, cementing his status as Jared Goff’s favorite target. He also registered a career-high 84% snap share, setting up to be a pillar of the team’s offense for at least the next two seasons.

To no surprise, the Lions picked up Hockenson’s fifth-year option in April. That will give him a 2023 salary of $9.39MM, a sizable raise from the earnings of his rookie pact. He is now eligible for further long-term security, though, which should see him join the $10MM-per-year club at the position. Currently, 10 tight ends are at or above that mark (the total rises to 11 if one adds Taysom Hill, whose quarterbacking days with the Saints are believed to be over), including franchise tag recipients Mike Gesicki and Dalton Schultz.

The other TE to be tagged this offseason was David Njoku, whom the Browns have subsequently signed to a four-year, $54.75MM pact. That deal will no doubt loom large in future negotiations, including those between the Lions and Hockenson. Regardless of its weight, though, a sizable new contract could be coming soon for the latter.

Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press reports that “many around the NFL” believe an extension will get done this summer. There is less urgency due to the option, but Hockenson has expressed a willingness to stay in Detroit long-term, saying “I want to [win] here so bad.” Doing so may become more likely, given the ascendancy of receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown late last season, coupled with the additions of former Pro Bowler DJ Chark in free agency and first-rounder Jameson Williams in the draft. Those three may eat into Hockenson’s target share, but they should help boost the team’s overall passing game.

A lucrative deal for Hockenson would mark the second straight offseason in which Detroit locked up one of its best young players. The team signed center Frank Ragnow to a record-setting deal last May, showing general manager Brad Holmes‘ willingness to make long-term commitments as early as possible. That eagerness seems to be reciprocated by Hockenson himself.

“I don’t really know much, [and] I don’t really care to know much” with respect to contract talks, he said. “When that time comes to sign a piece of paper, I’ll do that.”

How Will Broncos Proceed With Crowded OLB Corps?

June 8th, 2022 at 3:24pm CST by Sam Robinson

Visions of a long-term Von Miller–Bradley Chubb edge partnership mostly proved fleeting for the Broncos, who saw injuries sideline at least one member of this tandem for most of its three-plus-season tenure. The 2018 season, when Miller and his then-rookie sidekick combined for 26.5 sacks, turned into a mirage.

The Broncos’ 2022 contingent of edge rushers presents intrigue, even if it is the first in 12 years not to include the best pass rusher in franchise history. Denver’s Miller trade allowed the team to finish stockpiling its cast of pass rushers, bringing second- and third-round 2022 picks, but with only Randy Gregory locked in as a long-term starter (and given Gregory’s history, that classification might be premature), how the team proceeds with this crew will be interesting ahead of what promises to be a high-profile division race.

Gregory signed a five-year, $70MM deal in March, backing out of a Cowboys agreement at the last minute due to contract language. Suspended four times as a pro, Gregory showed considerable promise during his final Dallas season. If that form is a true indicator of the former second-rounder’s form, the Broncos having him signed to a $14MM-per-year deal will age well as the salary cap’s rise has pushed edge rusher salaries toward the $30MM-AAV mark. Gregory, whose drug suspensions could give him a “young 29” presence, carries boom-or-bust potential. From a roster-building standpoint, more questions surround his supporting cast.

Chubb made the Pro Bowl in 2020, despite accumulating just 7.5 sacks and one forced fumble, and racked up 12 sacks as a rookie. But the two ankle surgeries he underwent last year brought limitations and questions about his future in Denver. (Chubb also sustained an ACL tear in 2019.) George Paton identified the former top-five pick as a core player, and while those comments came before the ankle trouble limited Chubb to seven games in a zero-sack season, the second-year GM expressed Chubb confidence again this year. Paton did extend 2018 second-round pick Courtland Sutton, whom he also called a core talent last year, after an ACL tear. Chubb, 26 later this month, will enter a high-stakes contract year, with Paton reorganizing the team’s edge-rushing stable after the February vote of confidence.

An extension path may still exist for Chubb. Gregory’s AAV checks in just 22nd among edge defenders, and the Chargers and Raiders each have two edges earning north of $17MM per year. But that prospect is murkier than it was last year at this time. Had Chubb not been a first-round pick, he may already be signed to a lucrative deal. The fifth-year option allowed the Broncos to wait, and the team will have cheaper options to flank Gregory beyond 2022 — when Russell Wilson will be playing on a top-market contract.

Denver rosters Malik Reed, a former UDFA who has seen extensive run (34 starts) due to Chubb and Miller’s injuries, and used its top draft choice on Oklahoma edge Nik Bonitto (64th overall). The team also has ex-Ohio State teammates Jonathon Cooper and Baron Browning. Cooper fell to Round 7 because of a heart issue (one that did not keep him out of games last season) and flashed a bit after the Miller trade. The Broncos curiously moved Browning from inside linebacker — where they are much thinner. A 2021 third-rounder, Browning started nine games inside as a rookie.

It will be difficult for the team to roster all six, and its recent penchant for UDFA edge success (Reed, Shaq Barrett) creates a path for Christopher Allen, a 2020 Alabama contributor who missed last season due to a foot injury. The Broncos gave Allen $180K to sign after the draft.

Also in a contract year, Reed has registered 13 sacks over the past two seasons. Though lesser-known than Chubb, Reed profiles as an extension candidate himself. The Broncos would probably stand to save by extending Reed over Chubb, who also looms as a 2023 franchise tag option. Chubb staying healthy this season could create a clear value gap between the two. Denver also has defensive end starter Dre’Mont Jones going into a walk year, creating an unsettled post-2022 mix beyond Gregory and Bonitto.

With Paton-era OLB investments behind Reed, would the Broncos consider trading the frequent fill-in starter ahead of his contract year? They only gave Reed the low-end RFA tender ($2.4MM) in March. That price and Reed’s recent production could be attractive for teams with thinner edge cadres. Chubb is tied to a $12.7MM option salary. A mix of Gregory, Chubb and Reed would limit Bonitto’s rookie-year time. But injuries could obviously change that.

The Broncos faced a surplus situation at cornerback last year but refrained from dealing into it, despite teams showing interest. Chubb’s injury history could prompt Denver to carry an extra outside linebacker on its 53-man roster. Browning’s ability to play on the inside would seemingly represent insurance for an iffy group of inside ‘backers as well. But carrying six edges is on the high end for 3-4 teams.

However the Broncos decide to proceed here, their moving parts on the edge should be a situation to monitor as the revitalized team attempts to compete against high-powered offenses. How that effort goes, particularly from the John Elway-era holdover rushers, will determine how the franchise chooses to complement Gregory beyond 2022.

Extension Candidate: Roquan Smith

May 31st, 2022 at 1:41pm CST by Sam Robinson

Although the Bears have a new regime in place, one that has gutted the previous staff’s front seven, Roquan Smith‘s status with the organization still appears secure.

One season, at a fifth-year option price of $9.74MM, remains on the linebacker’s rookie contract. New Bears GM Ryan Poles is planning to discuss a Smith extension, per Adam Jahns of The Athletic (subscription required). The prospect of a new deal before the season looms, though it is not a lock.

“I don’t know if that’s how we’re going to handle it, but I would like to,” Poles said, via ESPN.com’s Courtney Cronin. “Obviously the earlier you get to that, the better. But also with a new staff, we may wait a little bit, too.”

The rebuilding Bears no longer have too much money tied to their defense, with several veteran deals coming off their books in March. Smith, who said in April he “absolutely” seeks a long-term Chicago stay, represents the team’s front-seven cornerstone and would make sense as the first big defensive investment for Poles and Matt Eberflus. Though, the off-ball linebacker market has changed considerably since the Ryan Pace regime drafted Smith.

The talented off-ball ‘backer has been a starter since going off the 2018 draft board eighth overall, teaming with Danny Trevathan in Vic Fangio-, Chuck Pagano– and Sean Desai-coordinated 3-4 schemes. The Bears are shifting to a 4-3 alignment under new Eberflus, but teams pay up for defenders’ sub-package usage. Smith, 25, has been a three-down player throughout his career.

Smith is coming off another strong season, one in which he paired 163 tackles with three sacks and a pick-six. He has 14 career sacks and also accumulated 30 tackles for loss over the past two seasons. Smith’s 30 TFLs since 2020 not only lead all off-ball linebackers by a wide margin; that total sits second to only T.J. Watt among all linebackers. While no Pro Bowls appear on Smith’s resume, the four-year veteran has received second-team All-Pro nods in each of the past two years.

Poles has moved four Pace-era extensions off the roster, taking on some dead money to do so. He signed off on cutting Trevathan, a six-year Chicago starter, and nose tackle Eddie Goldman, who was a D-line first-stringer for six years. The Bears traded Khalil Mack, severing ties with the All-Pro edge rusher after four seasons (and taking on $24MM-plus in dead money). Six-year D-end starter Akiem Hicks signed with the Buccaneers on Tuesday. Robert Quinn has been with the Bears two years and broke Richard Dent‘s single-season team sack record in 2021. But the 11-year veteran does not seem a fit on a team that looks unlikely to contend this season. Quinn, 31, is believed to want out. Smith, however, is much younger than his longtime teammates, being squarely in his prime.

Smith’s option price would have been higher were he selected to a Pro Bowl. That promises to come up once the Bears begin negotiations in earnest; so do the second-team All-Pro accolades. The top of the linebacker market moved last year, with Fred Warner ($19MM per year) and Darius Leonard ($19.7MM AAV) using the C.J. Mosley and Bobby Wagner contracts as springboards to raise the ceiling of a positional landscape that looked drastically different prior to Mosley’s 2019 Jets pact ($17MM AAV).

Eberflus’ past with Leonard certainly bodes well for Smith. Still, a gap between the Leonard-Warner-Mosley tier and the field exists. Only two other traditional linebackers — Deion Jones (on a 2019 extension, one that may be shed soon) and ex-teammate Foyesade Oluokun — currently earn at least $14MM per year. The salary cap’s renewed growth, following its second-ever reduction in 2021, also stands to help extension-seeking players this year.

The gaps in between these linebacker salary tiers create some space for Smith’s camp to negotiate while also injecting some uncertainty into the talks. Smith can set his price above Jones ($14.25MM per year), Oluokun ($15MM AAV) and probably Mosley, but it will be interesting to see how the Bears’ new regime values him in comparison to first-team All-Pros Warner and Leonard.

Extension Candidate: Darren Waller

May 30th, 2022 at 11:32am CST by Sam Robinson

Tied to a below-market extension at a position that appears underpaid relative to the value its top talents provide, Darren Waller is playing on one of the NFL’s most team-friendly contracts. Going into his age-30 season, the Raiders tight end is running short on time to cash in.

The veteran pass catcher confirmed his agent and the Raiders have discussed this contract — a four-year, $29.8MM deal signed in 2019 — this offseason. Following David Njoku‘s four-year, $56.75MM deal, Waller’s status was bound to come up. Because of contracts handed out to Njoku and other less accomplished tight ends this offseason, Waller now resides as the NFL’s 17th-highest-paid tight end. He is due nonguaranteed base salaries of $6.25MM in 2022 and ’23.

“My agent is working on that,” Waller said during an appearance on the Ross Tucker Podcast (via Charean Williams of Pro Football Talk). “I understand it, but I know if I focus on it too much, it could take away from my job and learning a new system and just continuing to try to elevate and take care of my body in the right way. I try to focus on those things and let my agent handle that. When decisions need to be made, decisions need to be made.”

The Raiders possess the leverage of having Waller under contract for two more years. They just gave Davante Adams a monster extension and have Hunter Renfrow entering a contract year. At 26, Renfrow is three years younger than Waller. But tight ends with Waller’s pass-catching pedigree are a rarer commodity than effective slot receivers. Waller is one of only eight tight ends in NFL history to have compiled two 1,100-yard years. Current tight end salary kingpin George Kittle is not even on that list.

That said, Josh McDaniels has contributed plenty to Renfrow’s position, seeing Wes Welker turn into an All-Pro and Julian Edelman grow into a quality receiver-turned-Super Bowl MVP under his watch. This might not be an either/or situation between Waller and Renfrow, but considering Adams’ contract and Derek Carr now attached to a short-term deal averaging $40.1MM annually, a Waller-or-Renfrow scenario is a situation to monitor.

Waller has said the right things and has not made this a major issue. He shot down a trade rumor in April, but a report at that time indicated the Raiders are likely a year away from addressing Waller’s deal. That may be too much for Waller to stomach. Although the midcareer breakout player is coming off an 11-game season, he has been the Raiders’ aerial centerpiece since 2019, when the former Baltimore wide receiver’s belated Oakland emergence helped a passing game reeling from the Antonio Brown fiasco.

Players like Will Dissly and C.J. Uzomah, both inking $8MM-per-year deals, each surpassed Waller in AAV this offseason. Njoku’s deal — a $14.2MM pact making the unproven Browns talent the league’s fourth-highest-paid tight end — may have a more notable effect. Njoku has just one 500-yard season in five years. Waller has lapped that production, topping Njoku’s best year even during his 2021 injury-limited campaign. Not unlike Sammy Watkins‘ 2018 deal or Christian Kirk‘s free agency accord this year, the Njoku contract could have a notable effect on the tight end market. How the Cowboys and Dolphins proceed with their respective franchise-tagged tight ends, Dalton Schultz and Mike Gesicki (one 800-yard season between them), stands to affect Waller’s status as well.

The Raiders’ Adams extension, which preceded the Dolphins’ $30MM-AAV Tyreek Hill deal, created a massive gulf between the highest-paid wideouts and Kittle’s $15MM-per-year tight end topper. That strange imbalance adds to the value the Raiders have in Waller, who signed his deal at a time when the Patriots’ wildly team-friendly Rob Gronkowski contract (six years, $54MM) limited other tight ends’ earning power. Rostering Adams while extending Renfrow and keeping Waller on this contract would represent the ideal 2022 Raiders route; that would surely not sit well with their Pro Bowl tight end.

Even at 29, Waller can command a deal in the Kittle ballpark. Were Waller a free agent in March, teams likely would have submitted position-record offers. If the Raiders attempt to move extension talks to 2023, that would hurt the Georgia Tech alum’s value, since he would be negotiating ahead of an age-31 season. Waller has moved past the substance-abuse issues that plagued him with the Ravens, and while the Jon Gruden regime did well to extend the comeback story early, the tight end market’s shift will almost certainly make this contract an issue soon.

The current CBA makes training camp holdouts difficult to wage. Minicamp represents the next chapter here, though no indications have emerged Waller will stay away. Staging a hold-in similar to T.J. Watt‘s maneuver last year is an option; it would be interesting to see how the Raiders’ new regime handles that. A Waller trade would obviously hurt the Raiders’ chances to compete in a stacked AFC West. The Patriots included incentives to appease Gronk late in his New England tenure; would that be enough for Waller in 2022? However this plays out, the situation should produce more headlines before Week 1.

Poll: Which Rookie QB Will Make Most Starts In 2022?

May 28th, 2022 at 12:40pm CST by Sam Robinson

As players widely linked to first-round destinations fell into the third, the long run of skepticism about this year’s quarterback class manifested itself. While this was the lowest-rated quarterback crop since at least the 2013 class, a few of these passers have paths to early playing time.

Russell Wilson‘s rapid rise notwithstanding, third-round QBs do not have an extensive track record for extended QB1 run as rookies. Only six non-Wilson Round 3 QBs (Joe Ferguson, Mike Glennon, Chris Chandler, Davis Mills, John Hadl and Hall of Famer Fran Tarkenton) made at least 10 starts as rookies. (Wilson is the only third-round QB to start a full season.) The bar is low for the likes of Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis and Matt Corral, but they each landed in interesting situations.

Conversations around starter promotions for this year’s class must first include Kenny Pickett, who ended up going 54 spots before the next quarterback came off the board. The Pittsburgh alum, who will turn 24 next month, was a four-year starter at the ACC school. Pickett’s NFL entrance looks similar to new teammate Mitchell Trubisky‘s. The No. 2 overall choice in 2017, Trubisky unseated Glennon after the latter signed with the Bears that offseason. A value gap between being picked second and 20th certainly exists, but the Steelers clearly have Pickett penciled in as their long-term preference.

Four of the five QBs taken in last year’s first round were full-time starters by September, while three of the four 2020 first-rounders moved to the top depth chart position by October. The Steelers bumped 2004 No. 11 overall pick Ben Roethlisberger into their lineup in Week 3 of his rookie year, following a Tommy Maddox injury. How eager will they be to put Pickett out there? Trubisky has 50 career starts to his credit, and the oft-maligned Bears draftee rebuilt his value in Buffalo — to some degree — to create a bit of a market in March. A Trubisky-Mason Rudolph depth chart adds some fuel to a scenario in which Pickett waits a bit before taking the reins.

The second quarterback chosen this year, Ridder joins a Falcons team amid a full-scale rebuild. This is a similar situation to the one Mills walked into in Houston. Ridder started four seasons at Cincinnati, topping it off by helping the Bearcats become the first Group of Five team invited to the College Football Playoff. Marcus Mariota resides as Atlanta’s stopgap starter, and while Ridder’s No. 74 overall draft slot does not mandate a lengthy look as the team’s long-term arm, Mariota has not made it past October as a starter since 2018.

The former Arthur Smith Titans pupil would stand to buy Ridder time in a low-expectations season post-Matt Ryan, but Ridder has a clear path to an extended look — if he proves worthy in the coming months.

Willis’ tumble doubled as one of the modern draft’s most notable freefalls. Linked to teams in the top half of the first round, the Liberty prospect fell to No. 86, when the Titans traded up for him. Of the top QBs taken this year, Willis seemingly has the best chance for a full-on redshirt. Ryan Tannehill has not seen his job threatened since taking over for Mariota midway through the 2019 slate, though the Titans have featured one of the lowest-profile QB2 situations since Mariota left for Las Vegas.

Willis’ all-around skillset, which allowed the Auburn transfer to nearly put up a 3,000-1,000 season during a year in which he accounted for 40 touchdowns, will make things interesting for Tennessee — if the Titans struggle after losing a few key offensive starters.

Perhaps the biggest wild card here, Corral resides on a Panthers team that spent the past two offseasons trying to made a big quarterback splash. Sam Darnold still represents Carolina’s projected Week 1 starter, unless the team finally decides to acquire Baker Mayfield. The Panthers have balked at trading for the disgruntled Browns QB for several weeks, due to his $18.9MM fully guaranteed contract. Darnold and Corral’s performance this offseason may well determine if Mayfield ends up a Panther, with Matt Rhule on the hot seat and Darnold showing little — albeit behind a bad offensive line — in 2021. Corral finished last season with a 20-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio, adding 11 rushing scores, and led Ole Miss to its first major bowl game in six years.

Which quarterback will make the most starts for his team this season? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

Poll: Who Will Acquire Baker Mayfield?

May 10th, 2022 at 6:30pm CST by Sam Robinson

Nearly two months have passed since Baker Mayfield made his trade request. The Browns engaged in trade talks with the Panthers during the draft, but the sides did not come particularly close to a deal. As the team begins its Deshaun Watson era, its previous starter waits to learn his next NFL destination.

The Browns wanted to wanted to trade their four-year starter quickly, but the quarterback market soon featured few potential takers. It became clear a low-level return was to be expected, and to even recoup that, the Browns will have to eat a chunk of Mayfield’s $18.9MM fifth-year option salary. This has caused Cleveland to hold tight, and The Athletic’s Zac Jackson notes the Browns are prepared to ride this out to potentially wait to see if an injury forces a team to reconsider Mayfield in an emergency circumstance (subscription required). The Browns will excuse Mayfield from their June minicamp, if necessary, allowing the QB to satisfy his attendance requirements toward his 2022 salary.

Cutting Mayfield now would benefit him. He is locked into that $18.9MM salary, which would become Browns dead money, and have his pick of teams — perhaps as a chance to prove himself ahead of an intriguing 2023 free agency bid — from which to choose. The longer this impasse goes, the more Mayfield will be limited regarding assimilation with his next team. If the Browns are truly intent on waiting for a training camp injury to change the equation — a la Teddy Bridgewater in 2016 or Ryan Tannehill in 2017 — that will not go over well with Mayfield’s camp.

The Panthers have a fifth-year option salary on their quarterback depth chart, in Sam Darnold, but Mayfield has outperformed his draft classmate. Carolina would probably pounce if Mayfield hit free agency, but the team wanted Cleveland to pick up most of Mayfield’s salary to facilitate a trade. The Panthers then traded up for Matt Corral in Round 3. Mayfield, who led the Browns to their first playoff win since 1994, would undoubtedly give the 2022 Panthers a better chance to win compared to Darnold or Corral — Robby Anderson‘s thoughts on the matter notwithstanding — and USA Today’s Josina Anderson tweets the Panthers have not closed the book here. Carolina also holds the league’s most cap space, at $29MM-plus.

Mentioned as a Mayfield suitor earlier this offseason, the Seahawks are holding a Drew Lock–Geno Smith competition. Seattle, which also resisted selecting a QB in the draft, is not planning to trade for a passer. This is also a team that would certainly take a hard look at Mayfield in free agency, but if Pete Carroll‘s persistent Lock praise is to be believed, the Seahawks’ post-Russell Wilson plan is to let two 2021 backups vie for the job.

The Texans loom as Mayfield monitors. They did not draft a quarterback and have 2021 third-rounder Davis Mills positioned to start. While Watson’s ex-employer was not interested in taking Mayfield as part of that trade, the prospect of the Browns eating much of his 2022 salary changed the equation. Mayfield’s arrival would throw a wrench into Mills’ development, and Houston does not appear prepared to compete for a playoff spot in a stacked AFC. But the disgruntled vet, once healthy, would represent an upgrade opportunity. Of course, so would fellow trade-block resident Jimmy Garoppolo, who has close ties to GM Nick Caserio from their New England days.

The rebuilding Falcons used a third-round pick on Desmond Ridder but have only Marcus Mariota as a placeholder. If Daniel Jones fails to impress the new Giants regime this offseason, would they look into Mayfield? Barring injuries, are there other teams that would make sense? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

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