NFC North Notes: Bears, Vikings, Lions
Earlier this afternoon, we took a look at a possible extension between Mike McCarthy and the Packers. Now, let’s move on to some more notes from the rest of the NFC North:
- The Bears’ cornerback positions are filled for now, believes John Mullin of CSNChicago.com, and he grades corner as only a “medium” priority for the team heading into Thursday’s draft. Due to the age of Chicago’s top pass defenders, however, I wouldn’t at all be surprised if the Bears used the fourteenth overall pick on a cornerback, especially if defensive tackle Aaron Donald has already been selected.
- Jordan Palmer looks to be the early favorite for the Bears’ backup quarterback job behind starter Jay Cutler, although the team could look to pick a developmental QB later in the draft, writes Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com.
- The Vikings have never been great at manipulating the compensatory pick system, according to Mark Craig of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, who also looks at the success of Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome, who is considered by many to be a master of the compensatory machine.
- Blake Bortles, C.J. Mosley, and Donald are among a list of ten players who could be available and intriguing to the Vikings at pick No. 8, per the Minneapolis Star Tribune staff.
- We noted more than a month ago that the Lions were looking for a backup quarterback after losing Shaun Hill to the Rams, and now Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reports that the team will likely look to the draft to fill the position. Within the article, ESPN’s Jon Gruden mentioned David Fales and Tajh Boyd as late-round options for Detroit.
- Tim Twentyman of DetroitLions.com lists his top five need areas for the Lions, and among them are defensive end, linebacker, and receiver.
Draft Notes: Linemen, Lobato, Hughes, Boone
Few are more plugged in on scouts’ takes on draft prospects than the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Bob McGinn — yesterday, we looked at his reports on the running back class, and today we’ll examine his profiles of the available offensive lineman.
Greg Robinson was the highest rated offensive tackle, as one scout called the Auburn star “bust-proof,” and another lauded his power, punch, and speed. However, one evaluator did say Robinson might end up at right tackle rather than as a blind-side protector, and another scout said “I love [him], but what hurts him is he doesn’t know how to pass block yet. [But] [i]t’s not his fault. It’s the scheme.”
Zack Martin took the top spot among offensive guards, with one scout opining: “Love him. Not a real bulky guy. All I know is he’s got a great jam and can punch the hell out of you. Nobody beats him. Everybody keeps wanting to move him inside. Well, you better have somebody that can block those outside rushers.” Another scout stated the Notre Dame product is “as safe a pick as there is.” Among centers, Weston Richburg and Marcus Martin were given the highest grades. The entire piece is worth reading for expert opinions on prospects.
More draft notes:
- Northern Colorado quarterback Seth Lobato is drawing some pre-draft buzz — he talked with the Patriots during his Pro Day and worked out for the Dolphins, according to Aaron Wilson of the National Football Post.
- We noted yesterday that Indiana receiver Kofi Hughes met with the Redskins, and now Wilson reports that he also visited with the Bears, Colts, and Bengals.
- Late-round prospect Kadron Boone of LSU is also garnering interest, having received phone calls from about a third of the league, as per Wilson.
- Wilson has even more, as he adds on Twitter that Minnesota State defensive end Chris Schaudt is drawing interest from teams as a 3-4 outside linebacker.
- ESPN draft guru Todd McShay thinks Alabama offensive tackle Cyrus Kouandjio should have returned to school for the 2015 season, but allows that he could be a good value as a second-round pick, writes Andrew Gribble of Alabama.com.
- Andrew Sachais of Philly.com uses statistical correlations to examine the value of a quarterback in the draft, and, in what is sure to be disheartening to fans pinning their hopes on newly-selected QBs, finds that there is only about a coin-flip’s chance in discovering a franchise signal-caller.
PFR Originals: 4/27/14 – 5/4/14
Here’s the original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- We continued our Prospect Profile series, as I examined Buffalo linebacker Khalil Mack (link), Rob DiRe looked at Alabama safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (link) and Louisville safety Calvin Pryor (link), and Rory Parks wrote up Wisconsin safety Chris Borland (link).
- We also asked your opinion in several polls: Peter Sowards asked if the NFL should initiate a developmental league (with two-thirds responding in the affirmative), Ben Levine wondered which embattled quarterback will have the most 2014 success (most said Matt Schaub), and Luke Adams questioned what the Falcons will do in the draft (58% of respondents think Atlanta will trade up). Thanks for voting!
- Luke delved into restricted free agency, which affects players who have accrued three NFL seasons and have an expired contract.
- Luke also rounded up the decisions on fifth-year options, the majority of which were exercised.
Packers, Mike McCarthy Working On Extension
The Packers have approached head coach Mike McCarthy about extending his contract, reports Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. McCarthy, who has been leading Green Bay since 2006, has a career record of 82-45-1 and won the Super Bowl in 2010. He is currently signed through the 2015 season at a salary of about $6.5MM annually.
Head coaching salary figures are often kept under wraps, so any sort of comparison or estimation often proves difficult. Bill Belichick is thought to be the highest-paid coach at around $11MM per year, while Pete Carroll and Sean Payton each earn $8-9MM annually. A third tier of coaches — Tom Coughlin, Jeff Fisher, Andy Reid, and John Harbaugh — reportedly make $6.5-7MM each year. With a sustained record of success, and a championship under his belt, I would expect a McCarthy extension to have an AAV in the neighborhood of $7.5-8MM.
However, while it might seem obvious that the Packers would want to retain a highly successful coach like McCarthy, it may not be that simple. McCarthy’s boss, general manager Ted Thompson, is signed through the 2016 season, and some wonder how long Thompson wants to maintain the high-stress job of an NFL GM. When asked whether he would assure the team that he would stay on through the remainder of his contract, Thomspon replied, “I don’t look at it like that. It’s important for me to try to do a good job today.” One could read that statement simply as a veteran personnel man using a “one day at a time” cliché , or as an executive who sound non-committal.
If Thompson were to step away, it would create something of a quandary for the Packers. Team president Mark Murphy, who joined the team in 2007, inherited both McCarthy and Thompson. While all reports indicate that the power triangle exhibits a respectful working relationship, it would not make sense for Murphy to give McCarthy an extension, which could “potentially undermine the organization’s effective delineation of authority” if Thompson did retire. In other words, a potential Thompson replacement at general manager would want to have hiring and firing power — even if the new GM wanted to retain McCarthy, he wouldn’t want the coach’s contract outlasting his.
A departure by Thompson — whose tactics have not only been copied, but created something of an executive tree throughout the league — would create an attractive vacancy in Green Bay. Several candidates with Packers ties would be linked to the position, with current Chiefs GM John Dorsey, Packers contract negotiator Russ Ball, and Packers director of pro personnel Eliot Wolf among them. But the most intriguing option would certainly be Seahawks GM John Schneider, the former Packers Director of Football Administration, for whom the Green Bay position is reportedly a “dream job.” Schneider, who doesn’t wield full power in Seattle what with the presence of Carroll, could potentially make the jump to Green Bay if the offer was lucrative enough.
Week In Review: 4/27/14 – 5/4/14
The headlines from the past week at PFR:
Major Move:
- The Seahawks signed All-Pro safety Earl Thomas to a four-year, $40MM extension, with $27.725MM guaranteed.
Other Signings:
- Browns – quarterback Vince Young (link)
- Browns – quarterback Tyler Thigpen (link)
- Falcons – tight end Bear Pascoe (link)
- Seahawks – cornerback A.J. Jefferson (link)
- Seahawks – linebacker O’Brien Schofield (link)
Fifth-Year Options Exercised:
- Rams defensive end Robert Quinn (link)
- Colts offensive tackle Anthony Castonzo (link)
- Saints running back Mark Ingram (link)
- Falcons receiver Julio Jones (link)
- Dolphins center Mike Pouncey (link)
- Giants cornerback Prince Amukamara (link)
- Broncos linebacker Von Miller (link)
- Redskins linebacker Ryan Kerrigan (link)
- Browns defensive lineman Phil Taylor (link)
- 49ers linebacker Aldon Smith (link)
Fifth-Year Options Declined:
- Titans quarterback Jake Locker (link)
- Packers offensive lineman Derek Sherrod (link)
- Seahawks offensive lineman James Carpenter (link)
- Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder (link)
Follow all the latest news at PFR’s Transactions page.
Sunday Roundup: Texans, Cowboys, Panthers
We wrote last week about the dilemma quarterback-needy teams will face in the first-round of the draft, and Ben Volin of the Boston Globe provides a specific example of how overvaluation of the quarterback position can lead to disastrous results. Volin describes how Charlie Casserly, former GM of the Texans, over-inflated the value of David Carr in 2002 because he believed the team needed to hit the ground running with a solid, if unspectacular, signal-caller.
Like this year’s crop of top QBs, those in 2002 had some intriguing upside along with equally troubling drawbacks. As the NFL Network’s Mike Mayock has stated about the 2014 class, “the more tape I watch…the more questions I have.” Will current Houston GM Rick Smith take the highest-rated prospect in the draft–Jadeveon Clowney–and avoid the temptation that having an unsettled quarterback situation creates (as Casserly now admits he should have done with Julius Peppers, the top prospect in the 2002 class)? Or do Smith and his staff believe strongly enough in one of the top QBs to pull the trigger?
As we delve into some more draft notes from around the league, it is worth noting this little nugget that Volin passes along from a current NFL executive: “Isn’t it ironic that every team that perceivably needs a quarterback this year signed one in free agency?”
And now onto those notes:
- Mike Klis of the Denver Post writes that the Broncos figure to devote their greatest attention to inside linebacker and cornerback in the draft. Klis tweets that if QBs start to fall, he expects Denver to try and trade up to grab a top player at one of those positions. One such trade-up target might be Alabama’s C.J. Mosley. Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post writes that Denver’s defense would be dominant with Mosley on-board.
- Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets that he would not be surprised if the Cowboys took a WR with their No. 16 overall selection to pair with Dez Bryant.
- Commenting on the depth of this year’s WR class and the history of players drafted at that position, Joe Person of the Charlotte Observer writes that the Panthers, who are in need of a receiver, are just as likely to find a long-term contributor later on in the draft as they are at the top of the draft.
- Paul Schwartz of the New York Post writes that what the Giants do in the first round of the draft–i.e. whether or not they take an offensive tackle–will demonstrate how they feel about the status of Will Beatty, who is coming off a terrible season and a fractured right leg.
- Brian Costello of the New York Post writes that the Jets will not rule out drafting a QB.
- ESPN.com’s Field Yates (subscription required) explains why he believes the Buccaneers should take Texas A&M receiver Mike Evans with the No. 7 overall pick.
AFC North Notes: More Draft Discussion
After the 2014 NFL draft, despite pleas and caveats that the quality of any team’s draft class cannot be determined until at least 2017, there will be innumerable beat writers and national writers giving each club a grade for its draft haul. These post-draft evaluations are just as much a part of NFL draft coverage as the countless iterations of mock drafts that seem to be created earlier and earlier every year.
Alan Robinson of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, however, goes all the way back to the 1974 draft to show how one class of players, one collection of rookies, can have stunning and far-reaching impacts on a team’s fortunes for years, and even decades. In 1974, the Steelers boasted one of the greatest draft classes in NFL history, landing four future Hall of Famers in their first five picks, including Lynn Swann and Jack Lambert.
The Browns, meanwhile, traded their 1974 first-round selection and a 1975 second-rounder to San Diego in exchange for so-so linebacker Bob Babich. They also traded their third-rounder to Denver for backup QB Don Horn, and they traded their fourth-rounder to the Raiders for WR Gloster Richardson. With their one pick that remained in the first four rounds, the Browns selected tackle Billy Corbett, who never played in an NFL game. They did not fare much better in the rest of the draft.
The Browns were therefore unable to supplement their aging roster, and they would not make the playoffs again until 1980. They would not win another playoff game until 1986. Not that the 1974 draft had everything to do with that downward spiral, or the run of futility that followed their brief spurt of success in the mid-1980s, but when considered in conjunction with Pittsburgh’s record of success since that time, it gives one an extra reason to look to the events of this week with increased anticipation (or anxiety).
Now for some AFC North notes:
- In a separate piece, Alan Robinson of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review notes that cornerback is the biggest position of need for the Steelers, but the quality of the cornerback class and the lack of a consensus No. 1 player in that group will make for a tough decision if that’s the direction Pittsburgh chooses with the No. 15 overall pick.
- Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette looks at how the Steelers should utilize their nine draft picks this week to maximize the chances that the class representing the 40th anniversary of the 1974 draft will be just as productive for Pittsburgh as that 1974 collection was.
- Paul Dehner, Jr. of The Cincinnati Enquirer looks at the machinations of the Bengals scouting department and how that group has turned the Bengals into a consistent winner again.
- ESPN.con’s Jamison Hensley describes how highly the Ravens value small school prospects and the success they have had with such prospects (with Joe Flacco and Lardarius Webb serving as examples).
- Marla Ridenour of the Akron Beacon Journal writes that the Browns should avoid a QB with their No. 4 overall pick and she goes on to describe how she believes the team should approach this draft.
Bills May Be Sold By July
The sale of the Bills is moving at a “brisk pace” and the team could be sold as early as July, writes John Wawrow of the Associated Press. Contractually, the Bills must stay in Buffalo until 2019, but the goal is to secure the team’s presence there for much longer than that.
Given the anticipation that the team could be sold within the next several months, governor Andrew Cuomo has redoubled his efforts to prevent the Bills from relocating. As Wawrow writes, “The state intends to hire a consulting firm over the next week to produce a report within three months that would be issued to prospective owners. The report would identify potential stadium sites and outline public financing options that would be made available.”
The consulting firm would work in conjunction with Irwin Raij, a partner with the law firm Foley & Lardner who played a critical role in the 10-year lease agreement that gave the Bills a “one-time out” in 2020. As the early offers to buy the team appear to be legitimate and competitive, Cuomo is hoping to at least get the framework of a plan to keep the Bills in Buffalo in place as soon as possible. More details will certainly follow in the coming weeks.
Prospect Profile: Chris Borland
Although our series of prospect profiles thus far has focused primarily on players projected to go in the first round, Wisconsin linebacker Chris Borland has been receiving a good deal of attention in the press as of late, so we thought it might make sense to explore what he has to offer. Indeed, for teams that are looking for a quality Day 2 option, Borland could represent a perfect fit.
Greg Gabriel of the National Football Post gives a fairly comprehensive view of Borland’s strengths and weaknesses. For instance, Borland had a very productive collegiate career, especially in 2013, when he accumulated 112 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, and four sacks as Wisconsin’s “Will” linebacker. Borland also excels at the mental part of the game, as he has terrific instincts and is an effective blitzer. Also, what he lacks in speed he makes up for in his ability to read routes well and in his pass drop, which allows him to be useful in zone coverage.
However, because he does have averaged timed speed, he will struggle in man coverage. Also, he is only 5’11” and has very short arms, which means he will miss some tackles. Gabriel calls Borland a “classic overachiever,” and although he lacks ideal size and speed, he is explosive in short areas and has good change-of-direction abilities, making him an effective run-stopper. Essentially, if you can live with a few missed tackles and can pair him with a speedy linebacker who can cover receivers downfield, Borland could make a good deal of sense. His intelligence will also be a tremendous asset in the middle of any team’s defense.
Arjuna Ramgopal of WEEI.com offers similar insights as Gabriel, noting that Borland has drawn favorable comparisons to long-time Dolphins stalwart Zach Thomas. He adds that Borland is effective at diagnosing plays and is a sure tackler. Combining Ramgopal’s analysis with Gabriel’s, it seems that as long as Borland can reach you with his short arms, you will probably go down.
As far as his pedigree, Borland is as good as it gets. He was 2013 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, 2013 Big Ten Linebacker of the Year, 2013 first-team All-American, 2013, 2012, 2011 first team All-Big Ten, and 2009 Big Ten Freshman of the Year. Because of that pedigree, his production, and his dedication, John McMullen of the Merced Sun-Star labeled Borland a “safe” pick and calls him a “can’t-miss contributor.”
His one injury concern arose in 2010, when Borland injured his left shoulder and missed all but two games. Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes that the injury has forced one team to take Borland off its draft board entirely, as that team’s physicians believe the shoulder would require additional surgery.
That concern, of course, could drop Borland’s stock on draft day. But assuming he is physically cleared to play, the team that drafts him will get a bruising, savvy playmaker who is effective against the run, effective enough in coverage, and who plays every down with the intensity required of his position.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Eagles Notes: WRs, The Draft, Ertz
The Eagles will select at least one receiver in this week’s draft, writes Zach Berman of the Philadelphia Inquirer. What is unknown is who that receiver/those receivers will be, and when Philadelphia will pull the trigger. The only two receivers who are sure to be off the board by the time the Eagles make their pick with the No. 22 overall selection (assuming they don’t trade up) are Clemson’s Sammy Watkins and Texas A&M’s Mike Evans.
Outside of those two players, Philadelphia will have its choice of a wide variety of elite talents in the first round and a number of players who might fall to Day 2 or Day 3 but who, in any other year, might be first-round worthy. The Eagles will choose between the electric play-makers like Brandin Cooks, the physical threats like Kelvin Benjamin, and the polished route runners. Although it has been said that head coach Chip Kelly prefers a larger receiver, he did not always have such a player while at Oregon, and the diminutive DeSean Jackson was, of course, the team’s primary receiving threat last year.
One concern is that first-round receivers have a lower success rate than first-round players at other positions given that college defenses have been forced to play softer coverage schemes in response to the proliferation of spread offenses in the collegiate game. As such, fewer and fewer college receivers are facing press coverage and the types of schemes they will face in the NFL. GM Howie Roseman, of course, did not divulge his team’s plans, but he did say that he will be looking for a different type of receiver than those the team targeted in Andy Reid‘s West Coast offense, and he indicated he is not necessarily looking for someone who will start right away. Rather, he is seeking the wideout who, with several years of seasoning, could emerge as the top receiver in this very deep class.
Now for a couple of other quick Eagles notes:
- ESPN.com’s Andy Jasner believes the Eagles may wait until the later rounds to draft a receiver.
- In a separate piece, Jasner says that adding a pass rusher is not a priority for the Eagles.
- Although whatever receiver the Eagles do select in the draft will be instantly compared to DeSean Jackson, Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer believes TE Zach Ertz will be the player that recoups the bulk of Jackson’s production.
- Tim McManus of Philadelphia Magazine provides a mock-draft roundup for the Eagles.