Colts WR Alec Pierce To Test Free Agency?
MARCH 4: Pierce sounds ready to hit the open market. As a guest on Up & Adams on Wednesday, Pierce told Kay Adams: “I love Indy… but at this point, I’ve kind of earned the right to explore free agency. See what’s out there.”
MARCH 3: The countdown to the franchise tag deadline continues, and the Colts face a critical decision. Both Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce are pending free agents at the moment, and teams can only use one tag in a given offseason.
Working out an long-term deal with at least one of the two would of course create a more straightforward decision for GM Chris Ballard and Co. Talks with Jones and Pierce have taken place, and deadlines have been known to result in contract agreements around the NFL. That could be the case for Indianapolis.
ESPN’s Stephen Holder reports there has been “positive movement” over the past 24 hours with respect to negotiations with Pierce. An agreement this afternoon “feels possible,” he adds. Of course, nothing has been finalized yet and the Colts need to keep in mind Jones’ situation. A transition tag could be in store in his case, something which would lead to a reduced one-year cost at the quarterback position. That would also, however, leave the door open to Pierce departing in free agency.
While playing out his rookie contract, the wideout established himself as more than a deep threat. Pierce’s overall skillset has drawn strong reviews, and at the age of 26 (as of May), he is in line to serve as a highly productive wideout for years to come. Pierce will not have a hard time lining up suitors in the event he reaches the open market. Indianapolis could prevent such a scenario with a long-term accord or – if the team leaves Jones’ future uncertain – the franchise tag.
A tag in Pierce’s case would cost $27.3MM, the amount George Pickens is due to earn from the Cowboys unless a new deal is worked out. That figure would be fully guaranteed and mark a massive raise compared to Pierce’s earnings on his rookie deal. A multiyear pact would accomplish the same feat while leaving the Colts free to tag Jones. Albert Breer of Sports Illutrated notes the 1,000-yard wideout is understandably seeking clarity on the team’s quarterback situation before committing to a big-ticket contract.
Pierce commanding a $25MM-per-year salary should be considered in play, Breer adds. The 1,000-yard receiver could score a deal, as this market’s top receiver, near $30MM AAV. Only eight receivers are tied to $30MM-per-year prices, and that number will fall to seven if/once the 49ers release Brandon Aiyuk. None of the $30MM-plus-AAV wideouts hit free agency to secure those terms, with extensions leading to those deals in each case.
Jones impressed when healthy in 2025, his debut Colts campaign. The former Giant and Viking suffered an Achilles tear, however, something which complicates his market value. Even so, Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports states (video link) Indianapolis’ choice at this point is realistically down to using the franchise or transition tag to ensure stability under center. That approach will be especially viable if Pierce agrees to a new deal, and it will be worth watching closely to see if an agreement can be reached ahead of the 3:00pm tag deadline.
Colts Place Transition Tag On Daniel Jones
To no surprise, Colts pending free agent quarterback Daniel Jones will not reach the open market unfettered. The Colts are placing the $37.833MM transition tag on Jones, Tom Pelissero of NFL Network was among those to report.
This has been the expected outcome for at least a few days, though it will prevent the Colts from placing either the franchise or transition tag on pending free agent wide receiver Alec Pierce. Teams are only allowed to tag one player. The Colts and Pierce are progressing toward a multiyear deal. Indianapolis will have exclusive negotiating rights with Pierce until the legal tampering period opens March 9.
The 28-year-old Jones follows Jeff George (Falcons, 1996) as the second quarterback to receive the transition tag since the NFL introduced it in 1993. Unlike the franchise tag, a team that loses a transition player to an offer sheet is not entitled to any compensation. The Colts still have the right to match any offer that may come in, though, and they have until July 15 to continue working toward a multiyear agreement.
Jones, whom the Giants drafted sixth overall in 2019, has already signed one massive contract in his career. With the Giants of the belief Jones was a franchise QB, they inked him to a four-year, $160MM extension in March 2023. That wound up a regrettable decision for New York, which waived a struggling Jones in November 2024. He quickly joined the Vikings’ practice squad, but with Sam Darnold their starter then, Jones saw no game action.
The Vikings allowed Darnold to leave for Seattle in free agency last March. Jones exited for Indianapolis’ $14MM payday, but not before he turned down a richer offer from Minnesota. He believed he had a better path to playing time with the Colts than the Vikings, who were prepared to hand the reins to 2024 first-rounder J.J. McCarthy. The Colts also have a recent first-round QB in Anthony Richardson, though his stock has dropped considerably since he went fourth in the 2023 draft. Jones had little trouble beating out Richardson to become the Colts’ starter entering last season.
While expectations were low for the Jones-led Colts at the outset of the season, they stormed to a 7-2 start before the Nov. 4 trade deadline. Jones looked like a far better player than the one who regularly underwhelmed with the Giants. With the Colts in contention for the No. 1 seed in the AFC at the time, general manager Chris Ballard traded his 2026 and ’27 first-round picks to the Jets for star cornerback Sauce Gardner. The gamble blew up in Ballard’s face during an injury-ravaged second half for the Colts.
Gardner, No. 2 corner Charvarius Ward and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner all missed significant time down the stretch. Worst of all, Jones tore his Achilles in a Week 14 loss to the AFC South rival Jaguars. That proved to be a fatal blow for the Colts, who lost their third straight game that day and did not win again.
Bringing 44-year-old Philip Rivers out of retirement to help cover for season-ending injuries to Jones and Richardson (orbital fracture) did not stop the bleeding for the Colts. Once 8-2, they closed the year on a seven-game skid and finished 8-9 for the second season in a row. Owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon nonetheless retained Ballard and head coach Shane Steichen.
Although Jones is just three months removed from a serious injury, the Colts are optimistic enough about his recovery to risk a $37.833MM guarantee for next season. Richardson, who has requested a trade, and 2025 sixth-round pick Riley Leonard are the only other passers on the Colts’ roster. There is still at least some chance the Colts will lose Jones (the Vikings are reportedly interested in a reunion), which will continue to make this an interesting situation to watch.
Colts, Daniel Jones Still Discussing Deal; Vikings ‘Closely Monitoring’ QB
As the clock ticks toward Tuesday’s 3 p.m. CT tag deadline, the Colts and pending free agent quarterback Daniel Jones are continuing to negotiate a long-term contract, Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports reports. If an agreement doesn’t come together by then, Indianapolis is expected to place either the $43.39MM franchise or $37.8MM transition tag on Jones.
As of Sunday, the Colts and Jones were not close to reaching a deal. The team is reportedly leaning toward using the transition tag on Jones. Taking the less expensive route may give the Colts a better chance to retain their other top pending free agent, wide receiver Alec Pierce. However, they would be at far greater risk of losing Jones.
The Colts would have up to five days to match an offer for Jones, but if they passed on doing so, the signing team would not have to give up any draft compensation. Jones would be able to take offers all the way up to the third week in July. With most offseason business long over by then, It would likely be a catastrophic outcome for the Colts to lose him that late.
In all likelihood, nobody will tender an offer to Jones if the Colts go the franchise route. Doing so would force a team to part with two first-round picks for a quarterback who has been inconsistent throughout his seven-year career. If that isn’t prohibitive enough, Jones is recovering from a December Achilles tear. The former Giants first-rounder enjoyed his best season before then, but the injury dinged his stock.
Four days after the Giants waived Jones in November 2024, the Vikings added him to their practice squad. Jones finished the season with the Vikings, but he did not see any game action. Sam Darnold, who revived his career that season, was the Vikings’ starter during a 14-win outburst. Although Jones was down on the depth chart, he and Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell developed a “mutual respect” during their short time together, according to Jonathan Jones.
Darnold and Jones became free agents the next offseason. Even though Darnold led the Vikings to a playoff berth, they had 2024 first-rounder J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings. Re-signing Jones was reportedly a higher priority for the Vikings than keeping Darnold, but they wound up losing both signal-callers.
Jones turned down a better offer from Minnesota to sign with Indianapolis for $14MM. He saw an easier path to playing time in Indianapolis, where only disappointing 2023 first-rounder Anthony Richardson stood in his way. It was a good decision by Jones, who beat out the injury-prone and inaccurate Richardson for the starting job. Richardson requested a trade last month, though he has not encountered a strong market.
Meanwhile, McCarthy dealt with his own injuries and performance issues in a 10-game first season as a starter. The Vikings went 9-8 and missed the playoffs. The team has not given up on McCarthy, but it will consider other options as it attempts to rebound in 2026. There is at least a small chance of a reunion with Jones.
The Vikings are “closely monitoring” his situation in Indianapolis, per Jonathan Jones. They could pounce if the Colts don’t place a tag on the QB, Jonathan Jones adds. However, it is unlikely Daniel Jones will reach the market unfettered. If he does, the Vikings would have to win a bidding war. It would be an especially difficult task for a team that is a projected $45.51MM over the salary cap as of now.
Colts Prepared To Use Transition Tag On QB Daniel Jones; Latest On WR Alec Pierce
The Colts are known to be working on new deals for QB Daniel Jones and WR Alec Pierce, both of whom are eligible for free agency this month. While it is unclear how much of a gap Indianapolis and Pierce have to bridge, ESPN’s Dan Graziano reports the team is not close to striking an accord with Jones.
If that does not change by Tuesday’s tag deadline, Graziano expects the Colts to put the transition tag on the 28-year-old passer. The transition tag comes with a $37.8MM cost, making it a less expensive option than the $43.9MM franchise tender.
In a transition tag scenario, Indianapolis would not be entitled to any draft compensation if it declines to match an offer sheet Jones might sign with another club, though it is easy to see the logic in the move: the Colts essentially would be allowing another team to do their negotiating for them, and if Jones does not find an outside offer to his liking, he may come back to Indy on a deal closer to the team’s preferred terms. If not, and if he plays out the 2026 season on the transition tag, then at least he will not consume as much of the cap sheet as he would on the franchise tag.
But while the transition tag is the cheapest of the tag options, the $37.8MM cap charge is still considerable. As Graziano suggests, it could preclude the Colts from reaching a deal with Pierce, despite their assurances that he will be back with the club in 2026, either on a long-term deal or a tag of his own. If the team has to use a tag this offseason, it would obviously prefer to use it on Pierce, whose franchise tender would be about $27MM and whose transition tender would be just shy of $24MM.
Those numbers are roughly in line with what Pierce can expect on an annual basis on his next contract. We recently learned the big-play threat, who has led the league in yards-per-reception rate in each of the last two seasons, is expected to have a strong market if he makes it to free agency. In the Graziano piece linked above, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler confirms Pierce’s market value has exceeded $20MM per year.
The fractured fibula and torn Achilles that Jones suffered in Week 13, which ended his season prematurely and which was the driving force in the Colts’ second-half collapse that kept them out of the playoffs, are not expected to impact his 2026 availability. Still, his injury history and the fact that his stellar (and surprising) play to open the 2025 campaign had already started to slip prior to the injuries could make it difficult for player and team to find common ground on a long-term pact.
QB-Needy Teams Have Options Through Draft, Free Agency
It’s really not a surprise at this point in time, but reports indicate that Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza getting drafted No. 1 overall by the Raiders is all but a sure thing. Mendoza cemented himself as the likely first overall pick even before the Hoosiers’ championship run through the College Football Playoff secured his Heisman win, and as soon as Las Vegas secured the top pick in the draft, Mendoza’s move to Nevada became a near certainty. 
Nothing is ever 100% sure, though, and there is always a possibility that the Raiders look at next year’s wide crop of quarterback prospects and an historic trade offer for the No. 1 overall pick and choose that route.
Overwhelmingly, though, pundits across the media spectrum believe that Vegas will retain their top overall pick and make things official with Mendoza. During an appearance on The Herd with Colin Cowherd, Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer dropped a number of quotes, saying, “I would be stunned if (Mendoza) didn’t go No. 1, right? I think it’s highly unlikely he goes anywhere but Vegas.”
Over at ESPN, a crew of reporters polled several NFL executives on the topic at the Senior Bowl, Shrine Bowl, and Super Bowl, and eight executives believed the Raiders would keep the pick, while no votes were tallied against that possibility. Separately, ESPN’s Rich Cimini asked Jets general manager Darren Mougey about the possibility of reaching out to Vegas to inquire about moving up, and he stated pretty plainly, “I don’t think that’s happening.” Courtney Cronin, another ESPN contributor, added to the crowd yesterday with a piece on Mendoza’s meeting with the Raiders and his excitement at the prospect of potentially being mentored by minority team owner Tom Brady.
Now, for teams with a need at quarterback not located in Sin City, the other obvious solutions are to go after one of the top free agent quarterbacks available — namely, Green Bay’s Malik Willis or Indianapolis’ Daniel Jones — or attempt to trade for San Francisco’s Mac Jones. After impressive 2025 contributions, both Joneses are expected to stay home, though, and only one team will get to claim Willis as a solution, but there is still a solvable equation for the teams that remain.
According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, the teams that are still looking to acquire a passer after the above dust settles will be able to look toward either the litany of veteran quarterbacks with starting experience available for cheap or the numerous rookie passers who may be worth taking a flyer on or some combination of both.
Rapoport points to several veteran former starters who are thought to be release candidates and who may, in the same vein as Russell Wilson, be able to play for the veteran minimum, thanks to the added security of guaranteed money from the teams who may let them go. This situation would apply to players like Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Fields, and Geno Smith.
Teams can sign one of these quarterbacks to audition for a Jones-like comeback opportunity then pair them with a young, rookie option that may be available later on in the 2026 NFL Draft. After Mendoza, Alabama’s Ty Simpson has drawn some first-round interest, but there is a perceived drop off in the arms that follow. The next names on the list — LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, Miami’s Carson Beck, Penn State’s Drew Allar, etc. — could fall anywhere in the draft.
Some see 2026 much like the 2022 NFL Draft, in which Kenny Pickett was the only Day 1 quarterback, and the next passer was taken in the third round. Others believe 2026 could be more like 2018 or 2024, when two passers were widely viewed as first-round talents but several others drifted into the first round based on the number of teams looking for answers at the position.
With many already looking forward to the quarterback prospects of the 2027 NFL Draft, we may see multiple teams opt to employ the services of a veteran starter alone or combined with a promising rookie. These decisions will play out over the next few weeks as the veterans hit free agency after release and draft grades are determined for rookies, but there are several options available to teams looking for quarterback help for 2026.
WR Alec Pierce Expected To Have Strong Market
Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce is expected to draw heavy interest in free agency with several teams already interested in signing him.
In fact, Pierce is expected to receive more interest – though not a bigger contract – than fellow Colts pending free agent Daniel Jones, per ESPN’s Stephen Holder. The veteran quarterback has an uncertain outlook for the 2026 season as he recovers from a torn Achilles, but the Colts see him as their long-term starter. Other teams may be less certain, especially with a number of quarterbacks – including Anthony Richardson – also coming available this offseason.
The wide receiver market is less crowded. With the Cowboys using the franchise tag on George Pickens, Pierce will be the most valuable one available. The Colts might be more justified using the franchise or transition tag on him rather than Jones.
The transition tag, projected by OverTheCap to be $25MM, certainly makes sense. It is easy to see Pierce reaching that AAV on the open market. He is an excellent deep threat, having led the league in yards per catch in the last two years, and rounded out his game in 2025. He is also just 25 years old and clearly has the potential to grow further.
However, the tag would take up a significant portion of the Colts’ current salary cap space. They would have to make more room via restructures and cuts, though there are several candidates. Agreeing to an extension with Pierce would reduce his cap hit, but the transition tag would give him a chance to test his market.
The franchise tag, however, would likely keep Pierce in Indianapolis. Other clubs are unlikely to be willing to move two first-round picks and hand him a contract the Colts would not match. The franchise tag is projected to be $28.8MM, which would raise the floor in extension negotiations. But if Pierce’s value is approaching that figure anyway, Indianapolis may be best served by keeping him off the market.
Using a tag on Pierce would take it out of play for Jones and increase pressure on the Colts to get a deal done with the latter before free agency.
Colts Working On Re-Signing Daniel Jones, Alec Pierce; Franchise Tag In Play
FEBRUARY 24: Colts general manager Chris Ballard said at the Combine (via Chappell) that the team was planning to retain both Jones and Pierce. He added that “both sides are driven to get it done,” and characterized the ongoing negotiations as “very positive.”
Ballard also acknowledged the possibility of using the franchise tag on one of the two players, saying “it’s not what we want to do, but it’s a tool we have.”
FEBRUARY 23: The Colts were one of the biggest stories in the NFL in 2025, for reasons good and bad.
The good was a surprising 8-2 start anchored by an even more surprising player: quarterback Daniel Jones. The bad was an 0-7 finish to the year, which included Jones’ fractured fibula and torn Achilles in Week 13 and Philip Rivers‘ dramatic return to the NFL as his replacement.
The Colts had vastly different strengths of schedule during the two halves of their season, with a relatively easy slate to start and a murderer’s row of opponents down the stretch. That, combined with Jones’ injury, makes it hard to know if the current iteration of the team can compete in 2026.
The Colts seem to think so. They are pursuing extensions with Jones and wide receiver Alec Pierce, per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero. Both are slated to hit free agency in March after breakout years in Indianapolis.
Jones, 28, did not just put up the best numbers of his career in 2025. He finished the year ranked among the NFL’s top 10 quarterbacks in yards per attempt, yards per game, completion percentage, passer rating, and total QBR. He also led three game-winning drives and three fourth-quarter comebacks in just 13 starts.
The seven-year veteran’s play started to slip before his injuries, which are not expected to sideline him into the 2026 season. But his injury history is a concern, and he did not get the chance to prove himself against many top defenses.
That makes Jones’ valuation a little tricky, but somewhere in the region of $35MM would make sense. Fellow 2018 first-round reclamation projects Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield signed for similar amounts after re-establishing themselves as starting-caliber QBs. Jones and the Colts have mutual interest in reaching a deal, according to Pelissero.
Pierce, 25, posted career-highs of 47 receptions and 1,003 receiving yards. He also led the NFL in yards per reception for a second year in a row. With George Pickens likely to be tagged by the Cowboys, Pierce could be the top wideout available in free agency. The Colts will try to lock him up before he hits the open market, but that may require an offer well over $20MM per year.
Discussions with both players “have been good” thus far, per FOX 59’s Mike Chappell, with negotiations expected to continue at the Combine in Indianapolis this week.
A franchise or transition tag is an option for Jones or Pierce (though not both), per Pelissero, though the latter makes far more sense for their valuations. A transition tag for Jones would cost $40.8MM, while Pierce’s would cost $25MM. However, those numbers would be on the high-end for a potential long-term deal and the tagged player would be able to negotiate with other teams.
The Colts are currently projected to have $35.7MM in cap space in 2026, per OverTheCap, with ways to create upwards of $50MM more. The team could afford to extend both players, or extend one and tag the other while still having room to address other needs in free agency.
Colts Expected To Re-Sign Daniel Jones
After a turbulent six-year run with the Giants, Colts quarterback Daniel Jones‘ resurgence was one of the NFL’s pleasant surprises during last season’s first three months. Jones guided the Colts to an 8-4 record through his first 12 starts, but a torn Achilles in a Week 14 loss to the Jaguars ruined his season and helped sink his team.
Season-ending injuries to Jones and backup Anthony Richardson left the Colts desperate enough to bring 44-year-old Pro Football Hall of Fame finalist Philip Rivers out of retirement. While that made for a fun story, the Colts did not win another game.
Indianapolis was in the catbird seat for a playoff spot for a large portion of 2025, but the team is now reeling from a second straight 8-9 finish. The Colts’ playoff drought climbed to five years during their second-half collapse. To make matters worse, the Colts do not have a first-round pick until 2028 (then 7-2, they traded their next two No. 1s to the Jets for cornerback Sauce Gardner) or an established starting quarterback under contract.
Jones is scheduled to reach the free agent market next month, but there is mutual interest in a second Colts deal. The two sides are expected to commence negotiations soon (if they haven’t already). Among teams chasing quarterbacks, there is “growing consensus” Jones will stay in Indianapolis, Jason La Canfora of SportsBoom reports.
“Jones is going back to the Colts. It makes too much sense not to happen,” one general manager told La Canfora.
The fact that Jones is just two-plus months removed from an Achilles tear increases the likelihood of remaining with the Colts, per La Canfora. The belief is that it would make plenty of sense for Jones to re-up with the Colts and recuperate in a familiar setting. Otherwise, in going elsewhere, he’d add the burdensome task of learning a new offense to an arduous recovery process.
Regardless of whether Jones sticks with the Colts, a substantial raise over last year’s $14MM deal is in order despite an inconsistent career and his recent injury. Considering the Colts and other teams are starved for a starting signal-caller, the 28-year-old is a candidate for the franchise tag (worth a projected $47.32MM) or another large contract.
With his stock then on the rise in New York, Jones secured a four-year, $160MM extension in March 2023. It was a disastrous decision by the Giants, who went on to cut Jones in November 2024. He finished the season as a Vikings backup before signing with the Colts in free agency. Jones was a buy-low pickup then, but a year later, he likely has more earning potential than any other pending free agent QB.
While the Colts expect Jones to bounce back from his injury by training camp, there is skepticism GM Chris Ballard will tag him by the March 3 deadline.
“Ballard was going to put the (franchise) tag on him if he didn’t get hurt,” another GM informed La Canfora. “Everybody knew that. Now he can keep him without tagging him.”
If that’s the case, Jones’ next Colts pact would “likely” be incentive-laden, according to La Canfora. Should the Colts work something out with Jones before March 3, it may enable them to tag one of his key weapons, wide receiver Alec Pierce, at a lesser cost (a projected $28.82MM).
Jones formed a nice rapport with Pierce, a soon-to-be free agent who has led the league in yards per catch two years in a row. Despite just 47 receptions, the field-stretching Pierce posted his first 1,000-yard season in 2025. If the Colts don’t franchise Pierce in the next two weeks, it would set up the 2022 second-rounder to reel in a much more valuable deal than the four-year rookie contract he just finished.
2026 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates
We are now in Year 34 of the franchise tag, a retention tool that came about during the same offseason in which full-fledged free agency spawned. The NFL salary cap is rising at a rate allowing teams to hammer out more extensions than in previous periods. That has helped dilute free agency talent pools. This led to a 2025 landscape in which only two players — Tee Higgins and Trey Smith — received the franchise tag. The cap, which stood at $279.2MM in 2025, is expected to rise beyond $301MM this year.
This year’s free agent class looks to feature only one tag lock, but a handful of players make sense as candidates to be kept off the market. An antiquated NFL system regarding positional classifications also affects this year’s free agency crop, as a couple of high-end UFAs-to-be (Tyler Linderbaum, Devin Lloyd) would likely be kept off the market if the league modernized how it sorted positions with regards to tag prices.
Teams who use the franchise or transition tag have until July 15 to complete an extension; otherwise, negotiations cannot restart until after the 2026 season. The transition tag does not bring any compensation back for an unmatched offer sheet, but the two-first-rounder component associated with a franchise tag has not been especially relevant in ages. Although offer sheets have come out in previous eras (Sean Gilbert and Dan Wilkinson signed unmatched offers in the 1990s), clubs avoid these in fear of an unmatched proposal requiring two first-round picks to be sent to the tagging team.
The tag window opens at 3pm CT today. With clubs having until 3pm CT on March 3 to apply tags, here is who may be cuffed:
Likely tag recipients
George Pickens, WR (Cowboys)
Projected tag cost: $28.82MM
The Cowboys have regularly turned to the tag over the past decade. They cuffed DeMarcus Lawrence in 2018 and ’19 before locking down Dak Prescott in 2020 and ’21. The latter Prescott tag was procedural, as the quarterback used the threat of a lofty second tag number hitting Dallas’ cap sheet as leverage toward a player-friendly extension — one that laid the groundwork for his 2024 player-friendly extension. The Cowboys then kept Dalton Schultz (2022) and Tony Pollard (’23) off the market. After two years without unholstering their tag, the Cowboys appear all set to prevent Pickens from reaching free agency.
Acquiring Pickens in a May 2025 trade with the Steelers — which featured a 2026 third-round pick as the top asset going back to Pittsburgh –Dallas reaped immediate benefits from that swap. Pickens, 24, smashed his career-high receiving mark with 1,429 yards and nine touchdowns. That booked the former second-round pick his first Pro Bowl honor; more impressively, Pickens was named a second-team All-Pro. The mercurial ex-Steeler WR1 was more than 300 receiving yards clear of CeeDee Lamb for the Cowboys’ receiving lead; even though Lamb missed three games, Pickens’ per-game average (84.1) better Lamb’s (76.9).
A tag surfaced on the radar here in mid-November, and momentum has steadily built for Pickens to follow in Dez Bryant‘s footsteps as a Cowboy wideout being kept off the market. It will take a near-Saints-level odyssey for the Cowboys to create sufficient cap space for a Pickens tag and reasonable spending room; they are projected to be more than $30MM (per OverTheCap) north of the 2026 salary ceiling, but enough smoke has emerged here — after Pickens fit the tag profile upon arrival — to make it safe to expect this outcome.
The Steelers shipped out Pickens in part because of reliability concerns, but the 6-foot-3 playmaker outperformed — with a considerable QB upgrade in Prescott — his previous work. With Lamb tied to a $34MM-per-year deal and Prescott on an NFL-record $60MM-AAV extension, the Cowboys are far from certain to extend Pickens. A tag-and-trade play has surfaced as a possibility, but with negotiations not having begun as of early February, expect the Cowboys to use the tag to at least buy themselves more time on their ultra-talented WR2.
On tag radar:
Breece Hall, RB (Jets)
Projected tag cost: $14.54MM
The Chiefs offered a fourth-round pick for Hall at the deadline, but the Jets held onto their starting running back after having asked for at least a third-rounder. Hall denied a report he was seeking a New York exit — after the blockbuster deals involving Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams — but he could have a chance to explore his value on the open market soon. The Jets, however, have spoken highly of the 1,000-yard rusher. The tag has surfaced as a possibility.
Hall, 24, is more than two years younger than Etienne. He will thus command more in free agency. The former second-round pick is also more than three years removed from the ACL tear that sidetracked his rookie season. The Jets waited on a Hall extension, keeping him on his rookie contract while giving Gardner and Garrett Wilson big-ticket deals, but Aaron Glenn has spoken highly of the Iowa State alum.
Gang Green wants to retain Hall. The easiest way for that to happen would be to extend his negotiating window via the tag. A $12MM-per-year offer could await the fifth-year player, making a tag logical. If the Jets were to place the transition tag on Hall, it would cost them a projected $11.73MM. They would receive no compensation in the event of an unmatched offer sheet, thus allowing another team to dictate the contract structure a la the Packers’ Kyle Fuller offer sheet in 2018.
The Jets saw Hall sidekick Braelon Allen miss much of the season, but the former Joe Douglas-era fourth-round pick remains signed through 2027. Allen gives the Jets some protection against a Hall exit, with a mid-round 2027 compensatory pick possible as well. But Hall is a dynamic RB that will be an attractive FA commodity if unattached come March 9. The Jets have a big decision to make over the next two weeks.
Trey Hendrickson, DE (Bengals)
Projected tag cost: $34.8MM
The defensive end tag is projected to come in at $27.32MM, but because Hendrickson was attached to a $29MM salary (following a late-summer raise), he is the rare tag candidate to whom the 120% rule would apply. As PFR’s glossary indicates, “the amount of the one-year offer is determined by a formula that includes the salary cap figures and the non-exclusive franchise salaries at the player’s position for the previous five years. Alternately, the amount of the one-year offer can be 120% of the player’s previous salary, if that amount is greater.” In Hendrickson’s case, it would be.
Colts To Begin Daniel Jones Negotiations Soon; Franchise Tag Possible
It has long been known a mutual desire exists between the Colts and quarterback Daniel Jones to finalize a contract for 2026 and beyond. Work on attaining that goal should begin shortly. 
Tom Pelissero of NFL Network reports (video link) talks on a long-term deal are expected to open in the near future. Jones’ debut Indianapolis campaign started off extremely well, and his Achilles tear proved to be highly costly. Since then, a full recovery has been projected in time for the 2026 campaign.
The Colts’ QB plan this spring will of course hinge largely on their ability to retain Jones. The former Giants first-rounder hopes to remain in Indianapolis. A high-profile trip to the open market looms at this point, but it would come as a major surprise if that were to become possible. As Pelissero notes, the franchise tag is an option to guarantee at least a second Colts season for Jones. The 2026 tag for quarterbacks is projected to cost roughly $47MM.
That figure would represent a massive raise compared to the one-year pact Jones signed to join the Colts last March. The 28-year-old secured $14MM in base pay, with nearly all of that figure guaranteed. A franchise tag would also carry fully locked-in compensation, and using it would buy the Colts extended time to continue negotiating an extension.
Both sides will look to avoid such a situation; players always prefer a multiyear commitment to the tag, while teams aim to avoid the cap charges brought on by the one-year tender. The progress of negotiations over the coming days will thus be something to watch closely. Indianapolis is currently mid-pack in terms of projected cap space for next season, but the team has a number of pending free agent decisions to make. The top priority, to no surprise, appears to be sorting out the quarterback position.
Since Andrew Luck‘s retirement, the Colts have struggled to find a long-term solution under center. Former No. 4 pick Anthony Richardson has not lived up to expectations since arriving in the NFL, and his future in with Indianapolis is unclear. Without a successor in place, the team would be forced to explore a weak free agent market and/or a draft class which is not held in high regard to replace Jones. If all goes well in the near future, finding a new starting quarterback will not prove necessary.